Tl; dr: Despite two dovish dissents, The Fed is likely on an “extended pause” noting strong activity data and signs of stabilization in the labor market. 

However, Goldman “expects easing to resume later in the year as a moderation in inflation allows for two further ‘normalization’ cuts to take rates back to levels seen by the median FOMC member as neutral.”

Christopher Hodge, chief US economist at Natixis, says at the end of the day here the Fed is “on hold until data prompts a move.” 

“We have now entered a new phase of policymaking where the Fed views the risks to both parts of its dual mandate are in balance. It will be incumbent on the data to move the Fed from this perch – the days of insurance cuts to slowly approach neutral are likely over.”

Waller’s odds of being the next Fed Chair went up after his dovish dissent.

*  *  *

Since the last FOMC meeting on Dec 10th (which resulted in a dovish-er than expected 25bps rate cut and statement), US macro data has surprised significantly to the upside…

Source: Bloomberg

…prompting a plunge in the market’s Fed rate-cut expectations (now below 2x 25bps cuts for the year)…

Source: Bloomberg

The market is now more only modestly more dovish than The Fed’s dots for 2026 (but the market is also not pricing in any more moves from The Fed after that)…

Source: Bloomberg

All of which has sent the dollar tumbling and gold exploding higher (while stocks rallied and bonds sold off)…

Source: Bloomberg

Heading into today’s FOMC statement (and presser), a dramatically wide consensus expects a “boring” and “uneventful” dovish hold with an upgrade to growth, and less downside risk to employment.

…and that’s EXACTLY what we got.

No change in rates…

• Federal Open Market Committee votes 10-2 to leave its benchmark interest rate in a target range of 3.5%-3.75%

• Fed Governors Christopher Waller and Stephen Miran voted against the decision in favor of lowering rates by a quarter-point

Which prompted a jump in the odds of Waller getting The Fed Chair job…

Source: Polymarket

Upgrade for growth:

• Fed upgrades view of economy to say available indicators suggest economic activity “has been expanding at a solid pace,”

Inflation-watch:

• Fed repeats inflation “remains somewhat elevated”

Labor market optimism:

• Fed removes language from statement that had noted “downside risks to employment rose in recent months”

• Fed tweaks description of the labor market, noting “job gains have remained low” and the jobless rate has “shown some signs of stabilization”

In terms of market reaction, it’s a nothing burger so far as most expect.

Read the full redline of the FOMC Statement below:

Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.) was assaulted Tuesday evening during a town hall event in North Minneapolis. Video of the incident shows a disheveled man spraying her with apple cider vinegar from a syringe (there was a polymarket for that). The spraying happened as she was calling for the resignation of Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem.

Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-MN) assaulted during town hall meeting: “Here’s the reality that people like this ugly man don’t understand; we are Minnesota strong and we will stay resilient in the face of whatever they might throw at us.” pic.twitter.com/Ud5l3yP4lQ

— CSPAN (@cspan) January 28, 2026

“During her town hall, an agitator tried to attack the Congresswoman by spraying an unknown substance with a syringe,” Omar’s office said in a statement. “Security and the Minneapolis Police Department quickly apprehended the individual. He is now in custody. The Congresswoman is okay. She continued with her town hall because she doesn’t let bullies win.”

Squad (and Bernie Sanders) – Activate!

Many on the left were quick to blame President Donald Trump for the incident.

“It is not a coincidence that after days of President Trump and VP Vance putting Rep. Omar in their crosshairs with slanderous public attacks, she gets assaulted at her town hall,” Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez said in a post on X. “Thank God she is okay. If they want leaders to take down the temp, they need to look in the mirror.”

“Rep. Ilhan Omar showed incredible courage by continuing her town hall after being attacked last night,” Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) said. “It is shameful that, instead of condemning the attack, Trump escalated his rhetoric and targeted her once again. No more hatred and racism. This country belongs to ALL of us.”

President Trump, however, had a different take altogether, telling ABC News he thinks Omar staged the whole thing. “I don’t think about her. I think she’s a fraud,” Trump said. “She probably had herself sprayed, knowing her.” 

He also said he had not seen the video of the incident. “I haven’t seen it. No, no. I hope I don’t have to bother.”

While Trump hasn’t seen the video, many who have are asking whether the incident was staged.

Her reaction after getting sprayed also struck some as unusual. Instead of putting distance between herself and her attacker, she lunged at him. 

Ilhan Omar was reportedly sprayed in the face tonight —

And, she runs after the attacker?!! As though she’s about to take him out?

This is not normal behavior.
Not even close. No wonder people are asking if it was STAGED! 🤔 pic.twitter.com/qKABTlwZdp

— Trish Regan (@trish_regan) January 28, 2026

She refused medical attention and kept the town hall going for another 25 minutes. “We will continue,” she said after the disruption. “These f—ing a–holes are not going to get away with it.” 

The attacker has been identified as 55-year-old Anthony J. Kazmierczak, who appears to be a complete lefty with they / them daughters (not posting here since so unconfirmed). He reportedly asked his neighbor to watch his dog for him before the town hall event and warned that he “might get arrested.” The neighbor also revealed that Kazmierczak was “heavily medicated” due to a spine injury he suffered years prior.

The attack happened about 15 minutes into the town hall. Kazmierczak was seated in the front row when he jumped up and rushed the podium. Security guards tackled him to the ground, and police arrested him immediately. Kazmierczak was booked into Hennepin County Jail on a third-degree assault charge. 

Witnesses say the liquid, which we now know to be Apple Cider Vinegar, had a strong smell. Omar’s lack of concern about it raised suspicions.

Representative Omar continued her town hall because of one of two options:

1. She does not have the self-preservation instincts accompanying being sprayed with a smelly substance, such as getting a doctor to check it out or even as simple as washing it off.

2. She staged it.…

— DataRepublican (small r) (@DataRepublican) January 28, 2026

Some speculate that a subtle nod toward her attacker, who was sitting in the front row, was a signal to him.

🚨 HOLY SH*T

Look at how Ilhan Omar looks at the guy who sprayed her and gives him a little nod right before he springs into action pic.twitter.com/Y2WRD15qZA

— Ian Miles Cheong (@ianmiles) January 28, 2026

Others question why the cameras were “fixated” on the attacker before he attacked.

The camera was fixated on this guy right before Ilhan Omar takes the podium.

Totally not staged.

🙄

pic.twitter.com/feY9d7R6fC

— AmericanPapaBear™ (@AmericaPapaBear) January 28, 2026

Ilhan Omar’s personal finances are under investigation by both the Justice Department and the House Oversight Committee. 

After stern warnings from President Trump, Iran has made clear it is not executing any protesters in the wake of the raging demonstrations and deadly unrest across Iranian cities which took place and grabbed world headlines earlier this month.

Trump had earlier claimed that Iran was going to execute 800, a figure that Iranian officials immediately rejected and scoffed at. Indeed it’s unclear where the 800 number came from, and was probably floated by one of the anti-Tehran opposition groups based in Washington or Europe.

All of this back-and-forth aside, Tehran has made clear it will proceed with carrying out existent death row cases, especially related to the June 12-day war with Israel, during which time its security services rounded up dozens or possibly hundreds of Iranians alleged to be cooperating with Mossad or other foreign intelligence as assets.

So far some dozen people have been executed after being charged with espionage, connected to the events of last summer as well as its lead-up, and another one happened Wednesday, per international press reports and Iran state media:

Iran on Wednesday executed a man arrested in April 2025 on charges of spying for Israel’s espionage agency Mossad, the judiciary said.

Hamidreza Sabet Esmailpour, who had been convicted of passing information to a Mossad agent, was hanged at dawn, the judiciary’s Mizan news agency said.

Some in Washington and Tel Aviv might see this as a direct challenge to Trump, at a moment he has boasted of a “beautiful armada” parked in regional waters. He’s also freshly warned Iran that “time is running out.”

Still, Iran’s judiciary proceeded, confirming Wednesday in a statement: “Hamidreza Sabet Esmaeilipour who was arrested on 29 April 2025, was hanged for the crime of espionage and intelligence cooperation in favor of a hostile intelligence service (Mossad) through… the transfer of classified documents and information, after the verdict was confirmed by the Supreme Court and through legal procedures.”

The Islamic Republic likes to set examples, and so tends to widely publicize hangings like this, which is another reason why the prior referenced Trump claims of 800 set to be executed seems wildly exaggerated if not fabricated out of thin air.

Public executions have been a reality in Iran going all the way back to the Islamic Revolution of 1979, in which time (and since) people could be seen hanging from cranes in the capital city.

Recently, it has become clear that Israel was engaged in a massive spying and espionage campaign to pave the way for its ‘Operation Rising Lion’ – which is intent on destroying Iran’s nuclear energy program, and possibly even accomplishing regime change. Some Israeli officials have actually publicly boasted of this.

Via The Libertarian Institute

Mexico’s state oil company, Pemex, has backed out of a planned oil shipment to Cuba, the country’s president appeared to confirm. The move comes after President Donald Trump insisted that “zero” oil would be sent to the island, and follows reports that Washington plans regime change there by the end of the year.

Speaking during her daily press conference on Tuesday, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum did not deny earlier reports about the canceled Pemex shipment, which was originally scheduled for sometime in January.

“It is a sovereign decision, and it is made at the time deemed necessary,” she said when asked about the reports, stressing that such shipments are determined by the state oil firm.

Reuters reported last week that the Mexican government was reviewing whether to continue sending oil to Cuba, fearing potential reprisals from the United States.

Washington has maintained a full trade embargo on the island for decades, and imposed a blockade on Venezuelan oil bound for Cuba late last year, soon after US forces captured Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro over dubious drug charges.

While that left Mexico as Cuba’s main petroleum supplier – accounting for some 44% of its crude imports, per UPI – President Trump insisted that “zero” money or oil would be sent to the island earlier this month, forcing Mexico to reevaluate its trade policy.

Asked whether her country could play a role mediating discussions between Washington and Havana, Sheinbaum said such an initiative could only proceed if it were requested by both sides, but added that Mexico would continue to promote dialogue.

Those efforts may be insufficient, however, as Washington is now reportedly seeking to execute regime change in Cuba by the end of the year, according to recent reporting by the Wall Street Journal.

The paper said last week that US officials were seeking “Cuban government insiders who can help cut a deal to push out the Communist regime” in the coming months, hoping to use Maduro’s kidnapping as a “blueprint” to topple the Cuban state.

Oil prices hit a fresh four-month high this morning after President Trump threatened another attack on Iran, urging Tehran to negotiate a nuclear deal.

“Hopefully Iran will quickly ‘Come to the Table’ and negotiate a fair and equitable deal,” Trump said in a post on his Truth Social network, adding that “the next attack will be far worse!” than the one that took place last year.

Prices pared gains somewhat after Iran’s mission to the UN repeated in a post on X that it stands ready for dialogue based on mutual respect and interests, but said it will “defend itself and respond like never before,” to US aggression.

API

• Crude -247k

• Cushing -92k

• Gasoline -415k

• Distillates +2.01mm

DOE

• Crude -2.295mm (+1.95mm exp)

• Cushing -278k

• Gasoline +223k

• Distillates +329k

Total crude and fuel stockpiles fell last week for the first time since early December led by a surprise crude draw (bigger than the small one reported by API)…

Source: Bloomberg

Bloomberg reports that the 6 million barrel draw (which was the biggest since October) was led by a decline in crude inventories and also the biggest drop in propane inventories since early last year ahead of the big freeze. 

Crude production fell to 13.7 million barrels a day last week, down by 36,000 barrels a day from the previous week. The drop may reflect the initial impact of the winter storm that hit the US in recent days and came as the number of rigs drilling for oil edged higher for a second week, with 1 unit put into operation last week, according to Baker Hughes.

Source: Bloomberg

WTI is holding on to early gains after the surprise draw…

Finally, circling back to the start, the potential risk to Iranian supplies has injected a premium into oil prices and led futures to start the year on a strong footing, up more than 10% this month, despite forecasts for a glut. That has also kept the cost of bullish options high relative to bearish ones.

“Market sentiment appears to be gradually turning more positive, as the bearish oversupply narrative so prevalent in the second half of 2025 weakens,” Standard Chartered analysts including Emily Ashford wrote in a note.

“We envisage an uptick in volatility and increasing focus on both supply and demand risks.”

The prompt spread for both oil benchmarks — the difference between their two nearest contracts — has widened in a bullish backwardation structure over the course of this month, indicating tighter supply. 

Amazon is laying off about 16,000 more employees as it works to cut bureaucracy and respond to growing competition from AI.

The move follows October’s 14,000 job cuts and the closure of its gaming unit. The company also announced it will shut down its Amazon-branded grocery and cashierless stores.

A note on the company’s website on Wednesday said: “I want to let you know that we’re making additional organizational changes across Amazon that will impact some of our teammates. I recognize this is difficult news, which is why I’m sharing what’s happening and why.”

“As I shared in October, we’ve been working to strengthen our organization by reducing layers, increasing ownership, and removing bureaucracy. While many teams finalized their organizational changes in October, other teams did not complete that work until now.”

It continued: “The reductions we are making today will impact approximately 16,000 roles across Amazon, and we’re again working hard to support everyone whose role is impacted. That starts with offering most US-based employees 90 days to look for a new role internally (timing will vary internationally based on local and country level requirements).”

“While we’re making these changes, we’ll also continue hiring and investing in strategic areas and functions that are critical to our future. We’re still in the early stages of building every one of our businesses and there’s significant opportunity ahead,” it concludes.

Amazon’s layoffs follow other major tech cuts early in 2026, including Autodesk’s plan to eliminate about 1,000 roles (~7% of its workforce) amid a restructuring that includes shifting investment toward AI and cloud, and Pinterest’s decision to cut nearly 15% of employees as it reallocates resources toward AI initiatives; layoffs trackers also show thousands of tech workers have already been affected by job reductions across dozens of firms so far this year.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC Sara Eisen this morning that “the US always has a strong dollar policy”.

This statement comes after President Trump’s apparent ‘comfort’ last night with the dollar declining…

When asked if he was worried about losses in the dollar, Trump told reporters in Iowa on Tuesday: “No, I think it’s great.”

Bessent then dropped two more tapebombs…

While stating that “WE DON’T COMMENT ON INTERVENTION SPECULATION”…

Bessent then confirmed that “US IS ‘ABSOLUTELY NOT’ INTERVENING IN DOLLAR-YEN NOW”

This prompted yen weakness, retracing some of the post ‘rate check’ rally…

…and dollar strength…

This move comes minutes after Goldman Sachs Delta-One desk head warned: Near-term, feels dangerous to press dollar downside given how extreme the moves have been.

Things between Tehran and Washington are moving fast according to an eerily familiar pattern hearkening back to the lead-up to the 12-day June war, when there was some wrangling over negotiations – and talk of good faith efforts at dialogue – just before the US greenlighted a surprise Israeli attack which also saw US entry into the conflict by the close of it (whereupon nuclear facilities were hit by American bombers).

“Our stance is clear,” Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said Wednesday as the US has expressed the desire to strike a deal. “Negotiations don’t go along with threats, and talks can only take place when there are no longer menaces and excessive demands.”

• IRAN SAYS WILL RESPOND TO US ‘LIKE NEVER BEFORE’ IF PUSHED
• IRAN SAYS READY FOR TALKS WITH US BASED ON MUTUAL RESPECT
• OIL PARES GAINS AS IRAN SAYS ITS READY FOR TALKS WITH US

Araqchi confirmed his country has had no recent communication with US special envoy Steve Witkoff and has not sought talks with Washington. President Donald Trump said Tuesday that another US “armada” was moving “beautifully” toward Iran, but he hoped Tehran would ultimately strike a deal and avoid conflict.

The Iranian FM noted, however, that unnamed intermediaries were “holding consultations” and remained in touch with Iranian officials.

Separately, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian told Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman on Tuesday that Tehran supports any process “within the framework of international law” that helps avert war. The Saudis have joined the UAE in declaring that the US cannot use its airspace for aggression against Iran. 

This shouldn’t pose too big a challenge for the Pentagon, however, which has a build-up of assets at its Qatar base and with a carrier group near Iran in regional waters.

But The Wall Street Journal disagrees, saying this could be a significant setback if the White House wishes to pursue war plans:

The declarations from the two Gulf states represent a foreign policy setback for the Trump administration as it seeks to ratchet up pressure on Tehran, which has defied Washington’s demand that it halt uranium enrichment and end the suppression of protesters.

Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the kingdom’s de facto leader, outlined his country’s position while talking by phone with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian. 

A Saudi readout of the Tuesday call said the crown prince had stressed that the kingdom “will not allow its airspace or territory to be used for any military actions against Iran.”

Previously, during Monday remarks, President Trump said “They want to make a deal. I know so. They called on numerous occasions. They want to talk.” He added ominously, “We have a big armada next to Iran. Bigger than Venezuela.”

US forces stationed across the Middle East are also meanwhile taking part in large-scale war games aimed at showcasing combat readiness, as Washington ramps up its military footprint, and as Trump is presented with an array of ‘options’. All of this supposedly steps from Washington ‘concern’ for large-scale protests from earlier this month, where thousands died – but which also included the deaths of police and security services.

In a statement which kicked off the week, US Central Command said: “Ninth Air Force will be conducting a multi-day readiness exercise to demonstrate the ability to deploy, disperse, and sustain combat airpower across the Central Command (CENTCOM) area of responsibility.”

President Trump issued the following “time is running” out message Wednesday morning:

Trump tells the Iranian regime that “time is running out”, saying that if there is no deal, the “next attack will be far worse” than Operation Midnight Hammer pic.twitter.com/FnziIVAxRt

— Faytuks News (@Faytuks) January 28, 2026

The command added that “this exercise is designed to enhance asset and personnel dispersal capability, strengthen regional partnerships and prepare for flexible response execution throughout CENTCOM.”

The sweeping drills are unfolding against the backdrop of sharply rising tensions with Tehran in which an oil blockade and potential strikes on senior officials in the Islamic Republic are being considered. But in terms of blockades, two can play at that game, as the Strait of Hormuz remains among the most vital waterways for the global market, and the IRGC has threatened that its forces can shut it to international transit.

Censorship concerns are back in the spotlight after TikTok users claim to be having trouble posting about Jeffrey Epstein and ICE raids.

Days after the company finalized a sale to a consortium of American investors who now control TikTok’s business in the US – which averted a national ban of the app over national security concerns – users report being unable to use the word “Epstein” in direct messages. 

The company responded, telling NPR “We don’t have rules against sharing the name ‘Epstein’ in direct messages and are investigating why some users are experiencing issues.”

TikTok said none of its content moderation rules have changed.

Still, when some users tried to send direct messages containing the word “Epstein,” an automatic prompt appeared declaring that the message may be in violation of TikTok’s community guidelines. The messages were not sent, according to the prompt, “to protect our community.”

Tests by NPR, and other accounts on social media, show that it was happening inconsistently; Some users were able to send messages with “Epstein,” and some were not. The TikTok spokesman said that is consistent with the company’s own analysis so far, yet the exact cause is still under review.

TikTok users are also claiming that the platform is censoring information related to the Trump administration’s immigration enforcement actions, as many users on the platform report being unable to upload videos on the topic. 

The TikTok censorship this week is genuinely insane. It’s a very bad look to have more censorship under American management than under Chinese management. It almost goes without saying that if it doesn’t reverse course immediately, it deserves the scandal & exodus it’s getting.

— Mike Benz (@MikeBenzCyber) January 28, 2026

Some are pointing a finger at TikTok’s new ownership – which includes lead investor Oracle, run by billionaire Larry Ellison, a close friend of President Trump. Users are now circulating the hashtag #TikTokCensorship on X. 

It’s nice to see Democrats suddenly discovering free speech.

Sen. Chris Murphy (D-CT) says this is at the ‘top of the list’ when it comes to threats to democracy. We don’t remember him piping up when conservatives were being censored for a decade…

I know it’s hard to track all the threats to democracy out there right now, but this is at the top of the list. https://t.co/WjB05qeQPN

— Chris Murphy 🟧 (@ChrisMurphyCT) January 26, 2026

TikTok said in a statement that ‘glitches’ on the app were due to a power outage at a US data center, causing videos to take longer to be uploaded and recommended to other users, and are “unrelated to last week’s news” of the finalized sale. 

Oracle, meanwhile, blamed the winter storm that has affected large swaths of central and eastern US, saying in a statement that an Oracle data center “experienced a temporary weather-related power outage,” triggering wide-spread “technical issues” for users of TikTok, said spox Michael Egbert, who added that the companies are working “quickly” to restore service and stabilize the app. 

On Tuesday, TikTok US Joint Venture said it had made “significant progress” in restoring service to US users, but noted that many might still have trouble uploading new videos.  

We’ve made significant progress in recovering our U.S. infrastructure with our U.S. data center partner. However, the U.S. user experience may still have some technical issues, including when posting new content. We’re committed to bringing TikTok back to its full capacity as…

— TikTok USDS Joint Venture (@tiktokusdsjv) January 27, 2026

Nurse Jen Hamilton, who has over 4.5 million TikTok followers, says that after she posted a still picture about Alex Pretti, a protester who was shot by one or more federal immigration agents on Saturday, her next four videos couldn’t be uploaded. 

“Something has shifted in the way that content is getting put on the platform, or allowed to be on the platform,” she told CNN. “And I just find it very ironic that it’s the same day that it takes over that people are not being able to post their stuff.”

While it would be difficult to prove TikTok is censoring content about ICE due to its opaque algorithm, it would also be within their legal right to do so, says Jeffrey Blevins, a professor at the University of Cincinnati who studies media law and ethics. 

“They’re a private platform. They have a First Amendment right to do that,” he said. “A lot of times it’s easy for us to think of social media as a public square, but it’s not public in a way that matters under the law.”

The CIA is “quietly working” to establish a permanent footprint inside Venezuela to shape the country’s post-Maduro trajectory, according to a CNN report Tuesday – or rather it’s not-so-quietly, with sources saying Washington intends to run Caracas much the way it penetrated Ukraine after 2014.

While the State Department is planning an eventual reopening of a formal US embassy, setting up a CIA annex has been elevated to “priority number one,” an unnamed US official told CNN – though there are serious questions as to why the agency would want to advertise this all over CNN.

From that base, agency operatives would engage with the interim government of Delcy Rodríguez, cultivate opposition factions, and “target third parties who may be threats,” according to the source.

A former US official described the annex as a workaround to traditional diplomacy:

“Before diplomatic channels the annex can help set up liaison channels… that will allow conversations that diplomats cannot have.”

In other words, the intelligence apparatus moves first, with formal diplomacy to follow. According to the unnamed official:

“State plants the flag but CIA is really the influence,” one source familiar with the planning process told CNN, noting the agency’s near-term objectives include setting the stage for diplomatic efforts – including relationship building with locals – and providing security.

Of course, no thinking person was entertaining any illusions that it would be anything less than a Langley outpost in Latin America. This is par for the South American course.

CNN notes, “The US has routinely sent CIA directors or top intelligence officials to have sensitive meetings with world leaders to discuss sensitive matters that are based on US intelligence collection.”

However, President Rodríguez (former VP, now US-backed) has publicly pushed back against Washington this week in a rare first since the US military invasion and overthrow of Nicolás Maduro, asserting she has had “enough” of US directives.

While President Trump has declared that Washington would effectively “run” Venezuela, he later endorsed Rodríguez as a temporary caretaker during the transition, despite her being as hardcore a Leftist pro-Maduro figure as anyone.

“Enough already of Washington’s orders regarding politicians in Venezuela,” she had said days ago.

Among the first US actions has been to cut off Venezuela’s oil supply to nearby ally Cuba, which threatens to sink the island-nation’s economy further, after it has endured many decades of Washington sanctions.

Despite this big talk of distancing herself from American interests, Rodríguez warmly greeted CIA Director John Ratcliffe this month, and there was even a photo op. Ratcliffe, as the first top US official to meet with her in the wake of the Jan.3rd military operation, reportedly delivering Trump’s conditions for resetting relations.

Reporter: The President of Venezuela says she has stopped taking orders from you. What do you say?

Trump: I don’t know exactly what’s going on there, but I haven’t heard that at all.

We have a very good relationship. pic.twitter.com/gKMvKfGuuu

— Clash Report (@clashreport) January 27, 2026

The fact that she has even remained in power this long suggests that she is playing ball behind the scenes, and that any anti-American public declarations are primarily for Venezuelan domestic consumption.