Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

Today, UPS announced it will use Artificial Intelligence (AI) to reduce office workers. It Joins Google, Amazon, and others in the shift. If only we could do the same for government.

UPS to Cut 12,000 Jobs

The Wall Street Journal reports UPS to Cut 12,000 Jobs and Mandate Return to Offices Five Days a Week

United Parcel Service UPS said it plans to shed about 12,000 jobs this year and mandated staff work from offices five days a week starting March 4. The cuts are primarily targeted at management staff as well as contract workers, UPS executives said Tuesday, adding that those jobs aren’t likely to return even when parcel volumes rebound. The company has around 85,000 workers in management.

Chief Executive Carol Tomé said that the cuts are part of efforts to change how UPS works. That initiative includes using artificial intelligence and other new technologies to boost its operations, she said.

UPS, based in Atlanta, is also joining a number of companies that want employees to work from offices every weekday. The company faced contentious labor negotiations last year in which union officials said that drivers and warehouse staff believed it was unfair that office staffers could work from home during the Covid-19 pandemic and they couldn’t.

Reflections on Unfairness

The drivers say it is unfair for office workers to work at home but they can’t.

I have the fair solution: Let everyone work from home provided they can still meet their job requirements.

Q: What’s the work from home requirement really about?
A: Encouraging workers to quit voluntarily.

Google Warns of Further Layoffs

Please note Google CEO’s Internal Memo Warns of Further Layoffs Ahead

Google CEO Sundar Pichai warned employees to expect additional layoffs in the months to come as the tech giant reorients itself toward artificial intelligence “and beyond.”

Duolingo Shifts Toward AI

Also note, Duolingo Lays Off Staff in Shifts Toward AI.

Duolingo laid off around 10% of its contract workers, the company told CNN Tuesday, as the educational technology app moves to rely more heavily on artificial intelligence.

While not all layoffs were due to the technology, the language learning company let go of some contractors at the end of 2023 to make room for AI-related changes in how content is generated and shared.

It has been proactive in adding AI to its platform, creating a new subscription tier dubbed “Duolingo Max” in March that incorporates OpenAI’s advanced language model GPT-4 to add AI-powered features that include having full conversations with a chatbot to practice skills and getting AI-generated explanations about why an answer is right or wrong.

“Generative AI is accelerating our work by helping us create new content dramatically faster,” CEO Luis von Ahn wrote in a November shareholder letter.

Artificial Intelligence Ads and Palm Reading

Amazon is at the forefront of Generative Artificial Intelligence.

“Generative AI helps advertisers make their ads more engaging and visually rich, and delivers a better advertising experience for customers.”

Using the Amazon Ad Console, advertisers simply select their product and click “Generate.” In just seconds, the tool delivers a series of lifestyle and brand-themed images.

Pay with Your Palm

No wallet? No problem. Amazon used generative AI to develop Amazon One, a fast and convenient contactless identity service that enables customers to use their palm to make payments, verify their ages, or enter locations.

Amazon One delivers an accuracy rate of 99.9999%, which exceeds the accuracy of other biometric alternatives—it’s even more accurate than scanning two irises. You can use Amazon One at all of the more than 500 Whole Foods Market stores in the U.S. and at over 100 customer locations across the country, including Crunch Fitness, Hudson stores at airports, and multiple stadiums and entertainment venues.

Predict the Blitz

Defensive Alerts is the newest AI-enhanced feature from Thursday Night Football. The feature, which airs during TNF’s weekly alternate stream, Prime Vision with Next Gen Stats, tracks defensive players’ movements before the snap and highlights in real time the “players of interest” who are likely to rush the quarterback.

Artificial Intelligence and Beyond

I really didn’t write anything above. Instead, a generative AI robot read my mind. All I had to do was think, not say, “Hello AI, write about UPS layoffs from an angle no one else has covered.”

Poof that was it. Alexa read my mind and generated this post.

Real Intelligence is Hard to Find

There is a desperate need for artificial intelligence in government because a search for real intelligence turns up empty.

For example, Biden Lets Tik-Tok Set US Energy Policy, US Loses, Russia Wins

Following demands by the TikTok lobby, Biden will pause LNG exports. The ironic winners are coal and Russia. The losers are the US and the environment.

And here’s a real doozie. Biden’s Trojan Horse Immigration Deal Would Allow Another 1.8 Million Migrants

Republicans actually bargained for that compromise.

Business is not immune either as noted in Dealers Beg GM for Hybrid Vehicles, Can GM Do Anything Right?

Please send in the AI ASAP.

Submitted by blueapples on X

If 2024 is anything like 2020 then the political tensions leading up to this year’s presidential election will surely only intensify as the calendar inches closer to November. However, 2024 has a lot to live up to compared to the utter chaos that unfolded in 2020. While this year is unlikely to rival the scale of the chaos that unfolded in 2020, one Pennsylvania man may have lit the fuse needed to heighten hostilities between the right and left by providing the Biden administration with the fodder it needs to ramp up it’s vilification of Trump supporters ahead of election day.

Following the publication of a 14 minute, 35 second YouTube video in which he aired his grievances against the Biden administration and federal government en masse, Justin Mohn was arrested by Fort Indian Town Gap Police in central Pennsylvania. Mohn took to YouTube to broadcast his political manifesto titled Mohn’s Militia – Call To Arms For American Patriots. The video was laden with incendiary rhetoric beckoning violence against the federal government, with fervent criticism of the leftist agenda he deemed was ruining the country. However, that was not the basis of the charges he was arrested for. Instead, Mohn was arrested in connection of the death of his father, Michael, after he began his YouTube broadcast by showcasing the severed head of his father following his decapitation.

According to Mohn, his 68 year-old father Michael had worked for the federal government for 20 years and in that time came to embody the corruption his manifesto deemed was ruining the nation. Mohn opened his video by stating  “This is the head of Mike Mohn, a federal employee of over 20 years and my father. He is now in hell for eternity as a traitor to his country.” before bringing his father’s severed head wrapped in plastic into the frame. Mohn would go on to characterize the policies of the Biden Administration as acts of treason in their own right, highlighting the country’s struggling economy, uncontrolled spending, insurmountable national debt, and failed immigration policy ushering in a “fifth column army of illegal immigrants invading the country”, among other examples as facets of a concerted effort to destroy the United States from within.

The video was hosted on Mohn’s YouTube channel which only had little more than a couple dozen subscribers before the manifesto was published. Due to the obscure nature of Mohn’s channel, his video remained up for 6 hours, amassing nearly 4,800 views before the staff at YouTube which is so regularly engaged in censorship finally took it down. Furthermore, YouTube staff took the escalated measure of terminating Mohn’s account, despite the on-going criminal investigation against him.

While not much of notoriety had appears on Mohn’s YouTube channel before his last video, he had previously authored two books which are listed on Amazon.com. While the first book is innocuously titled Poems I Wrote While Stoned, his other work gives more of an inkling into his political leanings. The second of his published works is titled America’s Coming Bloody Revolution, foreshadowing the bloodshed that took place at his father’s $390,000 home in Middleton Township, Pennsylvania that Mohn was still presumably living in.

The murder of Michael Mohn was characterized by his son as just that — an act of bloodshed intended to spark a political revolution. Justin Mohn characterized his father as “a traitor to this country” before opining that his soul was now destined for the innermost layers of hell which were reserved for those guilty of betrayal using language illustrative of Dante’s Inferno.

Middletown Township Chief of Police Joseph Bartorilla confirmed a suspect in the death of Michael Mohn was arrested on Tuesday evening, hours before the YouTube video of his son showcasing his father’s head video was finally taken offline. Law enforcement did not identify Justin Mohn as the suspect. However, they did confirm that the video was evidence used to make the arrest.

In the wake of a tipping point in which the facade of the Biden administration has come crumbling down faster than the sections of the southern border wall breached by illegal immigrants whose influx has caused a crisis that even staunch democrats can’t ignore, the political establishment is grasping for anything they can find to deflect attention away from its failures. Warhawks on Capitol Hill have latched onto an attack killing 3 US servicemen in Jordan in an effort to call for an attack on Iran to steer the spotlight away from the border. However, given the political momentum each of those crises gives to their opposition heading into the 2024 Presidential Election, permanent Washington is desperate for a story they can use to distract from their ineptitude by shifting back to the often used narrative that the gravest danger to the country isn’t 4 more years of Joe Biden but the return of Donald Trump. In the past, characterizing supporters of Trump as unhinged white supremacists and right-wing domestic terrorists has served that purpose. While public sentiment supporting that claim has waned, Mohn’s deranged political manifesto will surely be used to rekindle that fear mongering.

As highlighted in our preview, and as the Treasury itself noted in its last refunding announcement, moments ago the latest Treasury Quarterly Refunding announcement confirmed that it is indeed boosting the size of its quarterly issuance of long-term debt for a third straight time –  rising to $121 billion, just as consensus expected – and said that it “does not anticipate needing to make any further increases in nominal coupon or FRN auction sizes, beyond those being announced today, for at least the next several quarters.”

Specifically, the Treasury Department it will sell $121 billion of bonds at its quarterly refunding auctions next week, which span 3-, 10- and 30-year Treasuries, which is in line with what most analysts had expected, and echoed the cadence of increases unveiled at the last refunding, in November. The breakdown of next week’s refunding auctions is as follows:

• $54 billion of 3-year notes on Feb. 6, up from $52BN in Jan
• $42 billion of 10-year notes on Feb. 7, up from $37BN in Jan
• $25 billion of 30-year bonds on Feb. 8, up from $21BN in Jan

Treasury plans to increase the auction sizes of the 2- and 5-year by $3 billion per month, the 3-year by $2 billion per month, and the 7-year by $1 billion per month.  As a result, the auction sizes of the 2-, 3-, 5-, and 7-year will increase by $9 billion, $6 billion, $9 billion, and $3 billion, respectively, by the end of April 2024. Treasury plans to also increase both the new issue and the reopening auction size of the 10-year note by $2 billion and the 30-year bond by $1 billion.  Treasury plans to maintain the 20-year bond new issue and reopening auction size.

As for Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, or TIPS, the department said it will maintain the February 30-year maturity sale at $9 billion and then increase the April 5-year maturity TIPS to $23 billion. It also said it will boost the March reopening of the 10-year maturity to $16 billion. Turning to floating-rate notes, the Treasury plans to increase the February and March reopening auction size of the 2-year FRN by $2 billion to $28BN and the April new issue auction size by $2 billion.

All other nominal coupon-bearing debt was increased by the same cadence as in November, except for the 20-year bond, which was kept steady.

The full summary is below:

More importantly, the department said that unlike three months ago when it predicted more coupon size increased, “based on current projected borrowing needs, Treasury does not anticipate needing to make any further increases in nominal coupon or floating-rate note auction sizes, beyond those being announced today, for at least the next several quarters.” Of course, with the Biden fiscal stimulus firehose on full blast ahead of the November elections, we expect this number to be revised materially higher in one quarter.

Relief from further boosts to auction sizes for longer-term securities may help support demand for Treasuries. Investors for several months now have been particularly sensitive to news on the overall supply of federal debt, at a time when the Federal Reserve has been steadily shrinking its own holdings of US securities.

The Treasury also said Wednesday that it will announce the start-date for its new buyback program in the May refunding announcement, after conducting some small-value operations in April. That program is designed to help the department with its cash management and to improve liquidity for non-benchmark debt. Here is the relevant section:

In preparation for the implementation of a regular buyback program later this year, Treasury anticipates conducting several small-value buyback operations in April with a limited population of securities to test processes and infrastructure. Details about these small-value buybacks will be released at a later date.  Treasury intends to announce the date of the first regular buyback operation at the May refunding.

Turning to the all-important Bills, which the Treasury used to fund much of the budget deficit in late 2023 when it funded deficit spending using the Revere Repo drain (whose proceeds were used to fund Bill issuance), the Treasury said it “expects to maintain bill auction sizes at current levels into late-March,” with modest reductions by then into early April, during the tax-filing season.

The Treasury anticipates that this will result in a $300-350 billion net increase to Bill supply over the next two months. By late-March or early-April, Treasury anticipates modestly reducing short-dated bill auction sizes going into the tax filing season.  These reductions will likely lead to a $100-150 billion net reduction to privately-held supply during the month of April, which is also when the Reverse Repo is expected to be mostly drained.

Before Wednesday’s announcement, most dealers assumed that the Treasury would cut back issuance of bills — which mature in a year or less — if the department found itself in the quarters ahead with reduced borrowing needs. That’s after debt managers relied heavily on bills in recent months, with their share of total debt exceeding the 15% to 20% range the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee, a panel of market participants, has long recommended.

A less cheerful perspective came from the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee which said it may need to weigh incremental coupon boosts, noting that it was comfortable recommending auction size increase for just the current quarter, despite what will be a sustained higher T-bill share in coming quarters.

The committee said in a letter to Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen it recognizes it may be appropriate over time to consider incremental increases in coupon issuance depending on how the current uncertainty regarding borrowing needs evolves.

• Good discussion among members as to the many factors that are likely to impact borrowing needs relative to expectations, which include evolution of Fed monetary policy — including SOMA portfolio redemptions and investments — changes in the fiscal outlook as it relates to economic growth and tax receipts
• TBAC said dealers reflected the increased market focus on the dynamics in the very front end, both as reserves move from an abundant to an ample regime, and as Fed officials began discussing the tapering of Quantitative Tightening, or QT
  • Some market participants expected a taper to start this spring and conclude in the fall of 2024 as economic weakness would drive rate cuts this year
  • However, some participants expect QT to persist until an ample level of reserves is reached, even in the presence of rate cuts
• Committee said similarly distributed views on “natural plateauing of the RRP,” with most expecting a run down to zero, but some looking for a sustained low level of reserves there, in the $200 billion to $300 billion range. “Both of these factors were thought by the Committee to be important components of support for T-bills in 2024,” they wrote
• TBAC reviewed the drivers of investor preference for the Treasury futures versus cash market, often referred to as “the basis”
  • Agreement among members that leveraged funds’ futures open interest was largely driven by intermediating Treasury purchases for the asset manager community
  • Committee largely felt that the dynamics driving the basis trade could be better understood and appreciated the opportunity to address that with this charge
  • The charge found that there could be metrics worth monitoring, specifically, with the advent of required repo clearing, there will be an opportunity to gather better data on exposures and leverage
  • In essence, Treasury futures open interest is more a function of asset manager view on credit valuations than their view on Treasury valuations themselves

Finally, while price action remained broadly steady, the Treasury curve has pushed to fresh wides of the day after Treasury announced increases to all nominal auction sizes except 20-year.  The increases across tenors were broadly inline with bank expectations. On the day 2s10s, 5s30s spreads steeper by 2bp and 3.5bp, remain near wides of the day in the aftermath of the refunding announcement; 10-year yields ease slightly lower, remain richer by 3bp on the day.

In short, unlike the last two QRAs, the first of which sparked a powerful bond selloff and the second, a rally, this one may have been Goldilocks, and was largely in line with expectations.

Farmers in France, Germany, the Netherlands, Poland, Belgium, Romania, and other countries across Europe are protesting radical leftist governments by obstructing major transport networks with tractors. This widespread populist movement is sweeping Europe at a time when over-regulation, taxes, and the climate change agenda threaten the livelihoods of not just farmers but working-class people and comes several months before the European election cycle kicks off in June. 

Some countries hit hardest by protests have been Germany, Italy, Belgium, and France. Protests are expected to spread to Spain and Portugal. 

On Tuesday, France’s new prime minister, Gabriel Attal, promised farmers emergency funds and stricter trade controls on foreign products to guarantee fair competition. 

However, that might not have been enough, as the farmer’s union in France was unimpressed by concessions offered by the French government. They encouraged their members to continue the fight. 

“I’m so proud of you,” Serge Bousquet-Cassagne, head of Lot-et-Garonne department’s farmer’s association, told protesters in the south of Paris. 

Bousquet-Cassagne said: 

“You are fighting this battle because if we don’t fight we die.” 

Meanwhile, Interior Minister Gérald Darmanin told local TV station France 2 that police were preparing to defend strategic areas of larger cities. 

“They can’t attack police, they can’t enter Rungis, they can’t enter the Paris airports or the center of Paris,” said Darmanin, adding, “But let me tell you again that if they try, we will be there.”

According to Armstrong Economics:

Farmers throughout the world have been protesting the increasing regulations on agriculture. The media is barely covering the story, and when they do mention it, they say that the farmers are protesting due to Russia blocking supplies from Ukraine. This is simply untrue. The farmers are protesting against over-regulation, taxes, and the climate change agenda that is making it increasingly difficult for them to make a successful living.

EU farmers’ complaints are very basic:

• Out-of-control energy prices (thank whoever blew up the Nord Stream).

• Disastours carbon-cutting targets.

• Overall inflation.

• Bureaucracy from radicals in Brussels.

• Ukrainian grain imports. 

The demonstrations, which could soon consume Europe, come ahead of the June European Parliament elections. 

Here are scenes on the ground as protests spread across Europe:

NEW – Farmers encircled Paris, blocking highways to France’s capital.pic.twitter.com/1GHk6PqKgx

— Disclose.tv (@disclosetv) January 31, 2024

🚨Meanwhile in Germany🇩🇪, Farmers start attempting to drive through police cordons…..

All over Europe

Are you realising the significance of this? #FarmersProtest pic.twitter.com/JRSKH5GVVJ

— AntiCensorship (@truthscant) January 31, 2024

#Farmers from all over the country continue to converge on #Paris in their fight against the Climate Scam & Climate Communism.

I Support the Farmers#France #FarmersProtest pic.twitter.com/Wec5Lt9mKB

— WorldNews (@RichKidsClips) January 31, 2024

God bless those farmers. #FarmersProtest pic.twitter.com/Be9k2rV5jX

— Anti Lockdown Alliance(GLOBAL) (@Demo2020cracy) January 29, 2024

This is so cool. It’s almost like a video game.#FarmersProtest pic.twitter.com/uK33HDbTp3

— Peyman Askari (@PeymanAskari451) January 30, 2024

🇫🇷 Visuals of #FarmersProtest in #France pic.twitter.com/2EPAwhQpI6

— saileashkumar (@saileash) January 31, 2024

⚠️ The farmers’ uprising in Germany continues throughout the country.#FarmersProtest #Farmers #Deutschland #protest pic.twitter.com/C7e8Qf8MVK

— Tulublin (@tulublin) January 31, 2024

Small farmers are upset that WEF elites such as Bill Gates, linked to the World Economic Forum, aim to reset the global food supply chain, a move that could render small-scale farming obsolete. 

Farmers protests are spreading across the World. #FarmersProtest#Farmers #FarmersProtests
pic.twitter.com/Z5lB6fgH2L

— Emma Peel (@madelynrogers) January 27, 2024

And discontent is quickly spreading across the West. As we noted earlier this week: “Mess In The West: ‘Army Of God’ Convoy Heads To US Border While EU Farmers Block Cities.”

Unrest in the West is a symptom that leftist politicians are completely out of touch with the common man. Quickly, queue the next crisis. Is that the eruption of war or another virus? 

Authored by Mark Tapscott via The Epoch Times,

All 18 Republican members of the House Committee on Homeland Security (HCHS) voted on Jan. 31 after more than 14 hours of often impassioned debate to refer two articles of impeachment against Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas to the full House for a final vote as the panel’s 15 Democrats unanimously opposed the measure.

Speaker of the House Mike Johnson (R-La.) has said he expects the impeachment measure to be voted on by the House of Representatives “as soon as possible.”

Before that can happen, however, the House Rules Committee, led by Chairman Tom Cole (R-Okla.), must adopt a rule for how the articles will be considered for that vote, including whether to allow amendments from the floor.

When the measure does reach the House floor for a final vote, there are 14 Democrats who may face a tough decision on how they will vote regarding Mr. Mayorkas’ future. That is because each of the 14 voted in favor of H. Res. 957 on Jan. 17. That resolution was approved by the full House on a 225-187 vote, with 21 members not voting. Twelve of the 21 not voting were Democrats and nine were Republicans.

The resolution put the House on record in denouncing “the Biden administration’s open-borders policies … condemn[ing] the national security and public safety crisis that President Joe Biden, ‘Border Czar’ Vice President Kamala Harris, Secretary of the Department of Homeland Security Alejandro Mayorkas, and other Biden administration officials have created along the southwest border; and urg[ing] President Biden to end his administration’s open-borders policies.”

The 14 Democrats include Colin Allred of Texas, Yadira Caraveo of Colorado, Angie Craig of Minnesota, Michael Cuellar of Texas, Don Davis of North Carolina, Jared Golden of Maine, Vicente Gonzalez of Texas,  Greg Landsman of Ohio, Susie Lee of Nevada, Jared Moskowitz of Florida, Wiley Nickel of North Carolina, Mary Peltola of Alaska, Marie Perez of Washington, and Eli Sorenson of Illinois.

Article I of the measure accuses Mr. Mayorkas of a “willful and systemic refusal to comply with the law,” and claims that, “In large part because of his unlawful conduct, millions of aliens have illegally entered the United States on an annual basis with many unlawfully remaining in the United States.

“His refusal to obey the law is not only an offense against the separation of powers in the Constitution of the United States, it also threatens our national security and has had a dire impact on communities across the country.”

Among more than a dozen examples of that refusal, the article declares that Mr. Mayorkas chose not to “comply with the detention mandate set forth in section 235(b)(2)(A) of the Immigration and Nationality Act, requiring that all applicants for admission who are ‘not clearly and beyond a doubt entitled to be admitted … shall be detained for a [removal] proceeding …’

“Instead of complying with this requirement, Alejandro N. Mayorkas implemented a catch and release scheme, whereby such aliens are unlawfully released, even without effective mechanisms to ensure appearances before the immigration courts for removal proceedings or to ensure removal in the case of aliens ordered removed.”

Article II accuses Mr. Mayorkas of breaching the public trust by his having “knowingly made false statements, and knowingly obstructed lawful oversight of the Department of Homeland Security [hereinafter referred to as ‘DHS’], principally to obfuscate the results of his willful and systemic refusal to comply with the law.”

Among 10 alleged examples, the article argues that Mr. Mayorkas “delayed or denied access of DHS Office of Inspector General [herein-after referred to as ‘OIG’] to DHS records and information, hampering OIG’s ability to effectively perform its vital investigations, audits, inspections, and other reviews of agency programs and operations to satisfy the OIG’s obligations.”

There are 72 statutory OIGs working in Cabinet-level federal departments and independent agencies investigating allegations of waste, fraud, and abuse. The OIG system was established by Congress in 1978, and while the president appoints these officials, they answer first to Congress.

Throughout the day’s debate, Democrats claimed Mr. Mayorkas lacks needed resources to do his job, including sufficient space to hold all of the millions of illegal immigrants detained by the U.S. Customs and Border Patrol (CBP).

Secretary of the Department of Homeland Security Alejandro Mayorkas testifies before the House Homeland Security Committee in Washington on Nov. 15, 2023. (Madalina Vasiliu/The Epoch Times)

But Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, in an impassioned response, pointed to the homeland secretary’s budget requests and decisions to close detention centers.

“Secretary Mayorkas has requested less detention space. In fiscal year 2022, $2.7 billion for 54,000 beds, including 2,500 for family units, and in fiscal year 2021, $3.1 billion for 60,000 beds, including 5,000 for family units, and for fiscal year 2023, he requested $1.4 billion for 25,000 beds, and for fiscal year 2024, Secretary Mayorkas reduced it again, down to $1.3 billion for 25,000 beds,” Ms. Greene told the hearing.

The Georgia Republican also quoted from Department of Homeland Security (DHS) budget requests that said “a reduction in detention capacity space would not reduce the … ability to apprehend and remove non-citizens that present a threat to national security, border security and public safety.”

She further noted that Mr. Mayorkas closed existing DHS detention facilities in Florida, Louisiana, and North Carolina “while paroling en masse millions of illegal aliens into our country.”

Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) speaks at a House Committee on Homeland Security hearing in Washington on Jan. 18, 2024. (NTD)

Rep. August Pfluger (R-Texas), responding to the Democrats’ claim of insufficient resources for DHS, reminded the hearing that Mr. Mayorkas has said the border is secure and has never asked Congress for additional resources.

Rep. Josh Brecheen (R-Okla.) told The Epoch Times during the debate that, “James Madison wrote back in 1789, ‘If an unworthy man be continued in office by an unworthy president, the House of Representatives can at any time impeach him.’ So, the House of Representatives is well within its authority to impeach Secretary Mayorkas for his dereliction of duty. This impeachment is not about policy differences or politics. It is about the rule of law. Nobody is above congressional statute or our Constitution. Secretary Mayorkas has violated at least eight federal laws. We have no choice but to impeach him.”

Amendments to delete each of the two articles were offered by Rep. Sheila Jackson-Lee (D-Texas) and Rep. Lou Correa (D-Calif.), and both were rejected on voice votes after lengthy debate.

Rep. Dan Goldman (D-N.Y.) in Washington on Jan. 27, 2023. (Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)

During the debate on Mr. Correa’s amendment, Rep. Dan Goldman (R-N.Y.), who spoke more frequently than any of his Democratic colleagues during the long hearing, decried the Republicans’ argument that Mr. Mayorkas has obstructed congressional oversight and ignored subpoenas.

“You say we have obstruction of Congress. What obstruction, what subpoenas are you talking about? He has testified more than any other cabinet secretary in the Biden administration. He has cooperated far beyond what any single department did in the Trump administration … You do not specify a single subpoena or a single example of how Secretary Mayorkas has obstructed,” Mr. Goldman said.

Looming over the proceeding, according to Democrats on the panel, was former President Donald Trump. Late in the evening, for example, as the debate continued on Mr. Correa’s amendment, Rep. Dina Titus (D-Nev.) accused Republicans of hypocrisy because they have not condemned Mr. Trump’s many alleged crimes.

Similarly, Rep. Donald Payne (D-N.J.) suggested the explanation for the massive amounts of fentanyl coming across the border into the United States during Mr. Mayorkas’ tenure is a result of Americans demanding the drug that has killed more than 100,000 men, women, and children, many as a result of taking medicine they did not know was laced with the deadly substance. Mr. Payne’s comment drew a sharp rebuke from Rep. Anthony D’Esposito (R-N.Y.), who called it “the most ridiculous thing I’ve heard all day.”

When Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-Calif.) offered an amendment that described in great detail his opinion that the impeachment effort by Republicans was solely intended to help President Trump’s campaign to win a second term in the White House in November. “It’s about Donald Trump still doesn’t accept Joe Biden as president and this impeachment is the continuation of the insurrection of January 6.”

Committee Chairman Mark Green (R-Tenn.) then ruled the Swalwell amendment out of order, a motion was made to table it, and the chairman’s ruling was upheld on yet another straight party-line vote, 18-15.

The same process was repeated with the same result when Mr. Swalwell introduced a second similar amendment. And it was repeated a third time with the same result when Rep. Robert Garcia (D-Calif.) introduced yet another similar amendment.

As the midnight hour approached, tempers and patience began growing shorter, particularly after Rep. Robert Menendez (D-N.J.) screamed at Republicans for what he called their allegiance to “the orange Jesus, as you call him,” an apparent reference to Mr. Trump.

As the debate continued late in the evening, Ms. Jackson-Lee conceded that “Secretary Mayorkas is going to be impeached by this committee tonight, anybody who can count can see that.” But the debate continued on late into the night.

Today at 830am, the Treasury will publish its laters Quarterly Refunding Announcement in which it is expected to follow through with its guidance from the last QRA for a “final round of increases” to its coupon auction sizes. Analysts expect a similar size of auction increases as announced in November:

2yr and 5yr notes by USD 3bln per month, 3yr notes by USD 2bln per month, and the 7yr notes by USD 1bln per

• month.
• New issue and reopening auctions for 10yr notes by USD 2bln and the 30yr bond by USD 1bln.
• To maintain the 20yr bond new issue and reopening auction sizes unchanged.

That would result in $121bln of new coupon supply for next week’s new issue 3yr (54bln), 10yr (42bln), and 30yr (25bln) auctions.

The Treasury released its quarterly financing estimates on Monday, where it said it expects to borrow $760bln in net
marketable debt for January-March period, which was around $100bln less than analyst estimates and down $55bln from its own October 2023 estimate, “largely due to projections of higher net fiscal flows and a higher beginning of quarter cash balance”, assuming an end-of-March cash balance of USD 750 billion. It also said it expects to borrow USD 202bln in the April-June period, which was also beneath analyst estimates.

Participants will be looking within the QRA to assess whether the low-sided financing estimates are a function of lower bill issuance, which is most likely, or a result of lower coupon auction sizes than currently thought, which is less likely given the Treasury’s preference to avoid surprises in its coupon auctions.

There will also be focus on the Q2 buyback schedule that the Treasury is due to outline this week. Analysts are split between a commencement in February or May. The Treasury is expected to clarify its pricing methodology, frequency of purchases each quarter for each bucket, and scheduling details.

As Bloomberg’s Simon White notes, all eyes will be on how much Bill issuance the Treasury expects to ram down the Fed’s throat. As White writes, a steeper yield curve and higher term premium this year, along with a slightly lower borrowing estimate for the first quarter, suggest the Treasury will increase longer-term debt auction sizes, but not excessively, and will lower bill issuance in its refunding announcement today. Yields in that case are unlikely to react significantly.
 
The more important part of refunding announcements is longer-term debt-auction sizes, while the adjustment mechanism is bill-auction sizes. Typically the Treasury won’t want to deviate too much from what the market is expecting in terms of bond-auction sizes as that can trigger market volatility. The larger-than-expected auction sizes in the August announcement were the initial catalyst for the rise in yields through September and October.
 
Therefore it is likely the lower borrowing estimate will be absorbed by decreasing bill issuance, while bond issuance is likely to rise from the last quarter, but roughly in line with expectations. It’s the prudent thing to do, given the yield curve has been bear steepening, and the increase in yields this year has been driven by a rising term premium. That’s the market’s way of saying to the Treasury, “I’m starting to feel emotional, so don’t do anything triggering.”

Bill issuance has been through the roof, taking them to over 21% of Treasury debt outstanding. Some reduction is due for several reasons, not least as it circumscribes Fed independence.

A fall in bill issuance, along with the retirement of the Bank Term Funding Program in March, will put pressure on reserves and thus liquidity and funding. That has implications for quantitative tightening, but the Treasury announcement is unlikely to have an impact on what the Fed may or may not say on the topic at its meeting later today. More reserve pressure, though, increases the chance of a rate cut in March, at the margin.

A Delaware judge voided Elon Musk’s $55 billion pay package after a Tesla shareholder brought a case to court claiming it was excessive. The consequences of the ruling could have major implications for Tesla’s governance structure, but their implementation will hinge on a forthcoming appeal, according to Bloomberg. 

The compensation case, which was launched by shareholder Richard Tornetta, argued that Tesla’s board lacked independence in crafting Musk’s pay, a view the judge supported.

Tuesday’s court verdict requires Tesla’s board to put together a new executive compensation plan, at least temporarily overhauling the record-setting package previously awarded to Musk in 2018.

A large portion of Musk’s net worth hangs in the balance, with the options valued at about $51.1 billion, according to the report. Excluding these options, his net worth would diminish to $154.3 billion, positioning him as the world’s third wealthiest individual, a step down from his prolonged stint at the top, per the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.

Delaware Chancery Court Chief Judge Kathaleen St. J. McCormick cited inadequate disclosures and board conflicts of interest in her ruling. Musk, whose wealth largely comes from Tesla, the top auto company globally, has seen stock options from this plan vest as performance goals were met, though he hasn’t exercised them yet.

The judge wrote: “In the final analysis, Musk launched a self-driving process, recalibrating the speed and direction along the way as he saw fit. The process arrived at an unfair price. And through this litigation, the plaintiff requests a recall.”

“The most striking omission from the process is the absence of any evidence of adversarial negotiations between the Board and Musk concerning the size of the grant,” she continued.

Musk’s defense couldn’t justify the necessity of this unprecedented compensation plan. The judge questioned the need for such a plan to retain Musk and achieve Tesla’s objectives. The outcome of Musk’s appeal or Tesla’s response with a new pay package is yet to be seen, and any compensation from the case will revert to Tesla, not the shareholder.

“Never incorporate your company in the state of Delaware,” Musk fired back on Twitter. 

Never incorporate your company in the state of Delaware

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) January 30, 2024

He followed this up with a poll on X asking (rhetorically) if Tesla should switch its state of incorporation to Texas.

Should Tesla change its state of incorporation to Texas, home of its physical headquarters?

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) January 31, 2024

Did the Federal Reserve jump the gun on the pivot?

Last month, investors cheered after the Fed announced that interest-rate cuts are coming in 2024. Since then, the S&P 500 has powered to new record highs, and technology stocks have gone bananas. 

The latest swap contracts tracking Fed meeting dates for the full year 2024 showed 70% odds for 5.2 cuts. 

The unexpected pivot (as outlined earlier) might be premature and may have been a gift to the Biden administration in an election year. 

An example of a premature pivot and no impending economic doom could be news from Lamborghini on Tuesday that supercars are sold out until 2026. 

“It’s a bit early to give a prognosis, but we have no sign of weakness in the market,” Chief Executive Officer Stephan Winkelmann told reporters on a call. 

According to Bloomberg, the Italian supercar maker logged over 10,000 vehicle sales last year. Its first plug-in hybrid model, the Revuelto, was a massive hit with the rich, with two years of backlog orders. 

The trend of ultra-wealthy elites splurging on supercars indicates that the economy isn’t slowing down as quickly as thought, suggesting that an imminent need for rate cuts might be unnecessary. 

By Tsvetana Paraskova of OilPrice.com

Russia and China are still at odds over the costs and delivery prices of a new major Russian natural gas pipeline to China, which could lead to delays in construction, according to the prime minister of Mongolia, which is planned to host a section of the infrastructure.  

“The Chinese and Russian sides are still doing the calculations and estimations and they are working on the economic benefits,” Mongolia’s Prime Minister Luvsannamsrai Oyun-Erdene told the Financial Times in an interview published this weekend.  

“Those two sides still need more time to do more detailed research on the economic studies,” the Mongolian official told FT.

The delay in the agreements suggests that Russia would have to wait more years than originally anticipated in order to have a larger gas pipeline outlet in China that could partly replace the gas volumes it has lost on the European market.   

Currently, Russia supplies pipeline gas to China via the Power of Siberia pipeline, one of the biggest projects recently completed by Gazprom and the first conduit for Russian gas to China. Now, there’s talk about the Power of Siberia 2, but negotiations between Russia and China haven’t progressed much. An agreement on the Power of Siberia 2 has not been reached yet due to some sticking points, including the prices at which Gazprom will deliver the gas.

The Power of Siberia 2 pipeline was designed to ship gas from Russia’s Western Siberia Altai region to northeast China via Mongolia.

Russia could launch construction of the Mongolia section of the major natural gas pipeline to China as early as in the first quarter of 2024, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Viktoria Abramchenko said at the end of last year.

The design for the Mongolian section of Power of Siberia 2, Soyuz Vostok, is expected to be approved in the first quarter of 2024 and construction could begin then, Deputy Prime Minister Abramchenko said in October 2023, as quoted by Russian news agency TASS.

What are the roots of a living language, and how many are at risk of extinction?

This graphic via Visual Capitalist, from Stephen Jones, CEO of Derivation.co, shows the state of living languages around the world.

Mapping Out Living Languages

Across the 7,168 living languages today, 43% are at risk of being endangered.

In fact, a language dies off every 40 days. The vast majority of endangered languages are found in Indigenous communities, which risk the loss of culture and knowledge that they contain. At current rates, 90% of the world’s languages could disappear over the next 100 years.

According to data from Ethnologue, languages are classified across 12 states of vitality and three broader categories:

• Endangered: Children do not learn and use the language, it is no longer the norm.

• Stable: A language is used in the home and community, all children learn the language, but it is not formally used in institutions.

• Institutional: A language is used beyond the community across institutions.

Today, over 88 million people speak endangered languages.

The region of Oceania has the largest density of endangered languages, with 733 at risk. With a population of 8.8 million, Papua New Guinea is home to the most languages in the world. Often, small linguistic communities will have only a couple hundred people speaking the language.

Africa has 428 that are endangered, many which are clustered around the equator. Displacement, drought, and conflict are some of the key reasons that languages risk being endangered.

In North and Central America, 222 languages are at risk of extinction. In fact, 98% of Indigenous languages in the U.S. are endangered, one of the highest rates in the world.

On the other end of the spectrum, there are 490 institutional languages with 6.1 billion speakers worldwide.

Revitalizing Languages

Thanks to key initiatives, languages can be preserved.

For instance, during the 1970s, the Māori language was spoken by just 5% of Māori schoolchildren. Fast forward to today, and 25% speak the language, driven by efforts from the Māori, leading the government to protect it by law.

In Hawaii, just 2,000 people spoke the native language in the 1970s. After the government ensured it was taught in schools, the number of speakers jumped to 18,700 in 2023.

Advancements in AI are also providing tools to preserve languages. Google and Microsoft, for instance, are developing AI tools that can translate languages at impressive speeds, allowing for dying languages to become more accessible so they are not erased.