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Visualizing 150 Years Of S&P 500 Returns

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Visualizing 150 Years Of S&P 500 Returns

2023 was supposed to be a tough year for stocks.

However, consumers shrugged off higher interest rates, and investors were more optimistic than fearful largely due to exuberance around AI. As a result, the S&P 500 rallied over 24% in 2023.

To put these gains in perspective, Visual Capitalist’s Niccolo Conte created this graphic to show yearly returns for the S&P 500 since 1874, using data from TradingView.

S&P 500 Historical Returns (1874-2023)

Driving the S&P 500’s returns in 2023 was the force of the “Magnificent Seven”.

These mega caps include Amazon, Apple, Nvidia, Tesla, Microsoft, Meta, and Alphabet. Together, they generated the lion’s share of the index’s returns.

By contrast, a record 72% of stocks underperformed the S&P 500 index. Overall, 2023’s stock market returns were not only rare, but comparatively quite strong, as shown in the table below:

Like a bell curve, the majority of returns fall near the middle, with the highest number of returns in the 10% to 20% range.

The best year was in 1933, when the market soared almost 54% during the Great Depression.

After at least 1,000 banks failed, the U.S. government set up a temporary insurance policy that would soon become the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC). This restored confidence and drove money back into banks, increasing the money supply and supporting more production and spending.

The market faced its worst year just two years earlier, plummeting 43% amid the collapse of the U.S. banking system. The last time stocks tumbled nearly that far was in 2008.

Forecasting S&P 500 Returns for 2024

Looking back at 2023, we can see that Wall Street’s consensus was far off the mark.

“I’ve never seen the consensus as wrong as it was in 2023.”

-Andrew Pease, Chief Investment Strategist at Russell Investments

While many firms were cautious with their forecasts going into 2023, Goldman Sachs was one of the few to say the economy would avoid a recession.

Among the main reasons behind this forecast was that real disposable personal income was rebounding and U.S. GDP looked resilient in late 2022. These factors, among others, were seen to be more powerful drivers than tighter financial conditions.

This year, Goldman Sachs estimates that the S&P 500 will see more moderate returns, rising 7%. Overall, analysts forecast that the index will return 5-10%, presenting another cautiously optimistic outlook for 2024.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 01/08/2024 – 04:15

Did The Vaccine Eradicate Smallpox?

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Did The Vaccine Eradicate Smallpox?

Authored by Yuhong Dong via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The widespread faith in vaccines is often traced back to the assumption that the first vaccine in human history effectively eradicated one of the deadliest pandemics. However, does this belief hold true?

Despite the unclear nature of the original smallpox vaccine invented by Dr. Jenner and its increasing failures and medical challenges, there remains an underlying societal belief that smallpox vaccines effectively prevent smallpox. By the year 1801, an estimated 100,000 people were vaccinated for smallpox in England.

In the 1970s, a smallpox global eradication effort led by a World Health Organization (WHO) officer and American medical doctor, Dr. Donald Ainslie Henderson (1928 to 2016), initially used a strategy of mass vaccination campaigns to achieve 80 percent vaccine coverage in each country.

The campaign integrated mass vaccination programs, surveillance of outbreaks, and rapid response to any reported cases. By 1977, the last natural case of smallpox was recorded in Somalia, leading to the WHO’s declaration of smallpox eradication in 1980.

Yet this begs the question: Is there any direct evidence that the infection or mortality rate has declined due to vaccination?

In search of evidence that smallpox vaccination plays a direct role in eradicating the smallpox waves, we found quite a few examples showing that the waves of smallpox seen throughout history were even more severe after a massive vaccination program.

US: No Decline After Vaccination

Dr. Suzanne Humphries, an internist and board-certified nephrologist has practiced medicine in conventional hospital settings for over 20 years. The graphs below represent some key facts from her book about smallpox, “Dissolving Illusions.”

She spent countless hours at Yale’s medical library and other libraries scouring medical journals, books, and newspapers to locate mortality data and create computerized graphs.

Records from Boston, starting in 1811, reveal recurring smallpox epidemics beginning around 1837. Despite the introduction of vaccination mandates in 1855, epidemics continued to occur in 1859 to 1860, 1864 to 1865, and 1867, with a particularly severe outbreak from 1872 to 1873. The continual reoccurrence of these epidemics in Massachusetts indicates that stringent vaccination regulations had no positive impact on curbing smallpox.

According to the research article, “SmallPox and Revaccination,” published in the 1881 Boston Medical and Surgical Journal, “The latest epidemic that of 1872–1873, having proved fatal to 1,040 persons, was the most severe that has been experienced in Boston since the introduction of vaccination.”

In Chicago, despite 95 percent vaccination coverage by 1868 and mandatory vaccination after the Great Chicago Fire of 1871, a severe smallpox epidemic occurred in 1872. Over 2,000 people contracted smallpox, and more than a quarter of these died, with the highest fatality rate among children under age 5.

Europe: No Decline After Vaccination

Throughout the Western world, epidemics were more severe in highly-vaccinated populations.

Dr. G. W. Harman published an article in the 1900 medical journal Medical Brief entitled “A Physician’s Argument Against the Efficacy of Virus Inoculation,” highlighting widespread smallpox cases among vaccinated individuals in England, France, and Germany.

England

In England, the smallpox vaccination became compulsory in 1853.

Yet since then, there have been three smallpox epidemics. The first occurred from 1857 to 1859, with 14,244 death cases; the second happened from 1863 to 1865, with 20,059 deaths; the third wave, from 1870 to 1872, had 40,840 deaths. The population increased from the first to the second epidemic by 7 percent, yet the increase in smallpox cases was nearly 50 percent. The population increased by 10 percent from the second to the third epidemic, yet smallpox cases increased by 120 percent. 

Dr. Harman cited data published on July 15, 1871, from The London Lancet reporting that of the 9,392 smallpox patients in London hospitals, 6,854 had been vaccinated (73 percent) and 17.5 percent of vaccinated patients died.

The death rate for smallpox declined after 1872, but there is no evidence that vaccination had anything to do with it. In the early 1900s, death from smallpox all but vanished from England.

Smallpox mortality rates for England and Wales from 1838 to 1922. (Dissolving Illusions, Suzanne Humphries)

France

During the Franco-Prussian War from July 1870 to January 1871, the French army had 23,469 smallpox cases and every army recruit was required to be vaccinated.

Dr. Charles Creighton’s 1888 critical review in the Encyclopedia Britannica highlighted a mortality rate from smallpox in Prussia of 60,000 deaths between 1870 and 1873, despite widespread vaccination. “Not withstanding the fact that Prussia was the best revaccinated country in Europe, its mortality from smallpox in the epidemic of 1871 was higher (59,839) than in any other northern state,” he wrote.

Germany

In Bavaria, Germany in 1871, nearly 96 percent of all smallpox cases occurred in vaccinated individuals (29,429 of 30,742).

Between 1870 and 1885, official records indicated that 1 million vaccinated individuals died from smallpox.

Italy

In 1888, despite a population in Italy that was extensively vaccinated and revaccinated, smallpox wreaked havoc in numerous towns. Many of these towns had adhered to a biannual vaccination regimen for several years.

New Yorkers queued up for their smallpox vaccinations in April 1947. (FPG/Hulton Archive/Getty Images)

In 1899, Dr. Ruata documented the failure of vaccination in Italy. Numerous smallpox outbreaks resulted in 18,110 deaths, including the following notable instances:

  • Badolato recorded 1,200 smallpox cases (population 3,800).
  • Guardavalle had 2,300 cases (population 3,500).
  • St. Caterina del Jonio had 1,200 cases (population 2,700).
  • Sortino documented 570 deaths (population 9,000).
  • San Cono had 135 deaths (population 1,600).
  • Vittoria reported a staggering 2,100 deaths (population 2,600).

Dr. Ruata wrote: “Can you cite anything worse before the invention of vaccination? And, the population of these villages is perfectly vaccinated, as I have proved already, not only, but I obtained from the local authorities a declaration that vaccination has been performed twice a year in the most satisfactory manner for many years past.”

Japan: No Decline After Vaccination

Dr. Simon Katzoff reported that compulsory vaccination laws began in Japan in 1872, and stricter revaccination mandates were passed in 1885. Laws required infants to be vaccinated and revaccinated up to three times within their first year if the first attempt was unsuccessful, then every year after that for seven years.

However, these measures didn’t prevent outbreaks. Smallpox remained rampant.

Between 1885 and 1892, with over 25 million vaccinations and revaccinations, there were still 156,175 smallpox cases and 39,979 deaths. From 1892 to 1897, Japan recorded 142,032 smallpox cases and 39,536 deaths.

Even after an 1896 law mandating vaccination every five years for everyone, the country saw 41,946 cases and 12,276 deaths in 1897 alone—a 32 percent mortality rate—almost double the rate before the vaccination era.

Smallpox epidemic with hospital ships transporting patients to Long Reach, 1884. (Stock-Grafiken/GettyImage)

Smallpox Waves Fluctuate, Independent of Vaccinations

Based on the smallpox waves noted above, the virus appears to independently fluctuate, regardless of vaccination.

For instance, in the 1700s, London witnessed a substantial decline in smallpox deaths, even before the widespread use of vaccination. In the 18th century, several outbreaks occurred, despite vaccination mandates.

Read more here…

Tyler Durden
Mon, 01/08/2024 – 03:30

These Were The Top 5 Oil Producers Of 2023

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These Were The Top 5 Oil Producers Of 2023

Defying earlier expectations of slowing growth, U.S. crude oil production has surged this year to extend America’s lead at the top of the ranking of the world’s biggest oil producers.

In September, U.S. oil output surged to a record high for any month in history, and forecasts are that production will continue to increase. 

U.S. oil producers are set to lower their 2024 spending by 1%, with private drillers cutting budgets by an average of 4%, per a spending survey by Barclays cited by Bloomberg.

Despite the expected slightly lower budgets for next year, OilPrice.com’s Tsvetana Paraskova notes that the United States will continue to see production growth thanks to efficiency gains and longer laterals, analysts and forecasters say.

The recent surge in oil production is putting the U.S. firmly in the lead among the five biggest oil-producing countries in the world. 

The list also includes OPEC+ producers Saudi Arabia, Russia, and Iraq, and another North American producer – Canada. 

#1 The United States

The U.S. is now producing more than 13 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil—more than any country ever—and is headed to a continued increase in the short and medium term. 

U.S. crude oil production hit a new monthly record of 13.236 million bpd in September, according to the latest data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

“The growth has not just been a Permian story. We’re seeing many shale basins that were flattish experiencing a revival,” Francisco Blanch, Head of Global Commodities and Derivatives Research at BofA, said on a call to discuss the bank’s energy outlook, as quoted by Reuters

The U.S. shale patch is now looking to do more with less as it seeks capital and operational efficiency to prove to shareholders that it has turned the page from growth at all costs to measured growth accompanied by higher returns to investors. 

This year, U.S. crude oil production is set to average 12.93 million bpd, and rise further to average 13.11 million bpd next year, the EIA said in its Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) in December. 

Soaring production is also leading to surging exports of U.S. crude oil and petroleum products.

“Not only is the U.S. producing more oil than any country in history, but the amount of oil (crude oil, refined products and natural gas liquids) that it is exporting is near the total production of Saudi Arabia or Russia,” Jim Burkhard, Vice President and Head of Research for Oil Markets, Energy and Mobility, at S&P Global Commodity Insights, said in research cited by Forbes.

#2 Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia, the leader of OPEC and the OPEC+ group, has been the second-largest oil producer in the world this year. Saudi crude oil production averaged around 10.2 million bpd in the first half of 2023, but since July, the Kingdom has been implementing an extra voluntary production cut of 1 million bpd, and its production has averaged 9 million bpd in the second half of the year. The Saudi cut, aimed at “market stability”, has been partly offset by soaring production from non-OPEC+ producers, most notably the United States, but also Brazil, Canada, Guyana, and Norway. 

#3 Russia

Russia, the key Saudi partner in the OPEC+ alliance, is believed to be producing around 9 million bpd of crude oil. Russia classified its oil production and export data after it invaded Ukraine, saying it would not provide detailed information about its oil sector, which could be used by the West to track down and clamp down on Russia’s oil exports or oil revenues.

Earlier this month, reports emerged that Russia had promised oil-flow tracking companies and price reporting agencies to provide data about its production, inventories, and fuel output after OPEC+ asked Moscow for more transparency in tracking its compliance with the cuts. 

At the latest OPEC+ meeting, Russia said it would deepen the export cut to 500,000 bpd in the first quarter of 2024, with May and June of 2023 being the reference export levels for the cut, which will consist of 300,000 bpd of crude and 200,000 bpd of refined products.

#4 Canada 

While Russia and Saudi Arabia have been cutting supply to the market, North America has been growing its production—not only from the United States, but also from Canada. 

Last year, Canadian oil production hit a record 4.86 million bpd, per data from the Canada Energy Regulator. 

Analysts now expect output to grow in 2023, 2024, and 2025 as companies are ramping up production at new and tie-back sites in Alberta’s oil sands. Canada’s crude oil production is set to grow by 8% by 2025, analysts say. 

#5 Iraq 

OPEC’s second-largest producer, Iraq, has been the fifth-biggest oil-producing country in the world this year, with output averaging around 4.3 million bpd, per OPEC’s secondary sources in its monthly reports. 

In the latest report for December, OPEC acknowledged that while the cartel’s crude oil production fell in November for the first time in months, U.S. oil output continued to reach new highs. 

OPEC noted in its report that “US crude and condensate production as well as NGL output continue to reach new highs. Total US liquids output reached a record 21.6 mb/d in September due to persistent outperformance of onshore and offshore production.” 

OPEC expects U.S. liquids supply to grow by 1.3 million bpd in 2023.

The non-OPEC liquids supply growth forecast remains unchanged at 1.8 million bpd for 2023, driven by the U.S., Brazil, Kazakhstan, Norway, Guyana, Mexico, and China, the cartel said. 

Rising oil production from outside OPEC+ makes the group’s task of managing oil prices next year more difficult than previously thought.  

Tyler Durden
Mon, 01/08/2024 – 02:45

Turkey: America’s Worst Ally?

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Turkey: America’s Worst Ally?

Authored by Anders Corr via The Epoch Times,

Turkey is simultaneously one of the most important and worst of U.S. and NATO allies.

Most recently, it denied transit to two British minehunters that would have disabled Russian munitions and helped transport Ukrainian grain.

Last year, Turkey annoyed the West with a tanker blockade of its straits.

Turkey joined NATO in 1952. At the seat of the old Ottoman Empire, it plays a critical role as an influential civilizational center and one of America’s few close Muslim allies. Since 1955, the U.S. Air Force has operated an airbase in Turkey at Incirlik, flying spy and fighter missions critical to countering threats from Russia, Iran, and terrorists.

Yet, at a critical time for NATO expansion to Finland and Sweden, Turkey raised stumbling blocks and attempted to leverage its veto to get parochial concessions, such as against alleged Kurdish terrorists, and the lifting of military export restrictions, including of F-16 and F-35 fighters from the United States.

Turkey is a relatively poor country that relies on cheap Russian oil, which it attempts to purchase at a 25 percent discount, refine, and then reexport as Turkish-origin gas at market rates.

This shows one way in which the relationship between Russia and Turkey is far too close. Granting it access to F-35s could lead to key technology loss to Russia, which could then sell it to China.

Ankara apparently believes that it profits from playing both sides and leveraging global issues for its parochial benefit.

If all NATO countries did this, the alliance would be inoperable and cease to stand between the continental United States and an increasingly powerful axis of evil, including coordinated attacks by Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea.

It was not always this way.

Ankara has been an important force for moderation in disputes with other Muslim nations and actors, including in Afghanistan, to which it sent troops as part of the NATO deployment. Even recently, on Dec. 29, the Turkish government announced the arrest of 189 individuals with alleged links to ISIL (ISIS) terrorists.

But, after the Oct. 7 attacks on Israel, Turkey supported Hamas. The terror group, which Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan calls “freedom fighters,” can operate relatively freely in Turkey. Israel announced that it planned to hunt down Hamas operatives globally, including in Turkey. The Turkish government’s arrest of 33 persons with alleged links to Israeli intelligence followed.

Turkey’s GDP rose dramatically from $202 billion in 2001 to $958 billion in 2013 (current U.S. dollars). But, since then, the economy stagnated. GDP per capita fell 15 percent. The government appears to be printing money in response, including for allegedly corrupt construction projects. Inflation is now at an astonishing 65 percent. Most Turkish workers make less than $300 per month.

Part of the problem is Mr. Erdogan, who calls the economic shots and is favored by Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates as an Islamist counter to Western influence and secularism. Mr. Erdogan became prime minister in 2003, but only through a change to the country’s constitution did he get to run despite a criminal conviction. He alleged an attempted coup in 2008, which he used to target his secular opposition.

Protests in 2013 and a military insurrection were broken up with heavy-handed measures, like tear gas and beatings. Both gave Mr. Erdogan excuses for broad repression of civil society, including against activists and the press. With tens of thousands of opposition teachers, police, and other civil servants fired and over 100 news outlets shut down, self-censorship became the norm. Mr. Erdogan is now emboldened to extend his domestic attacks to Turkey’s constitutional court, whose power he wants to restrict.

Mr. Erdogan’s nationalist policies and authoritarianism provide him with excuses to betray his allies and citizens.

An end-of-year article by Cato Institute analysts rightly noted,

“Despite demonstrating time and again that it is not a reliable ally, Turkey continues to receive millions of dollars’ worth of U.S. weapons to buy a loyalty that it has proved unwilling to show.”

While the United States is considering the release of the F-16 fighter jet to Turkey to facilitate the accession of Finland and Sweden into NATO, the F-35 should be a no-go for any country with a leader as autocratic and unreliable as Turkey.

Additional measures, including increased tariffs and trade sanctions, should be considered to encourage Ankara to more thoroughly support democracy, the United States, and our closest G7 allies.

* * *

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 01/08/2024 – 02:00

The Great Taking Exposes The Financial End Game

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The Great Taking Exposes The Financial End Game

Authored by Bert Olivier via The Brownstone Institute,

One of the very best exposés of the covert, very well-hidden, bellicose attempts to rob all of humanity – barring the miniscule number of psychotic individuals comprising the inimical opposition – of their material possessions and their ‘immaterial’ freedom, was published fairly recently. It is accurately titled The Great Taking (2023), and was written by David Webb, one of the most courageous and finance-savvy authors I have ever come across.

He introduces the book on p. 1 in uncompromising terms: 

What is this book about? It is about the taking of collateral, all of it, the end game of this globally synchronous debt accumulation super cycle. This is being executed by long-planned, intelligent design, the audacity and scope of which is difficult for the mind to encompass. Included are all financial assets, all money on deposit at banks, all stocks and bonds, and hence, all underlying property of all public corporations, including all inventories, plant and equipment, land, mineral deposits, inventions and intellectual property. Privately owned personal and real property financed with any amount of debt will be similarly taken, as will the assets of privately owned businesses, which have been financed with debt. If even partially successful, this will be the greatest conquest and subjugation in world history. 

We are now living within a hybrid war conducted almost entirely by deception, and thus designed to achieve war aims with little energy input. It is a war of conquest directed not against other nation states but against all of humanity.

In the Prologue of the book Webb paints a richly textured, autobiographical picture of his provenance as finance guru, obviously with exceptional intelligence and, it turned out, courage. His knowledge of finance and economics has been the result of long years of work in the field, but he recalls the assassination of President John F. Kennedy, before the start of his professional career, when he was a child, and what he calls (witnessing) the subsequent “industrial collapse” of the US in Cleveland, where the family lived, culminating in “the complete destruction of everything we had known” (p. vii). Before he gets into the details of his life, he commences the Prologue with an indirect intimation of his reasons for writing the book (p. vi): 

Presently, as we well know, families are divided. People are experiencing a kind of isolation, perhaps not physically, but in spirit and mind. This has been made to happen through the dark magic of false news and narrative. This alone has been a great crime against humanity. The tactical purposes are many: to confuse and divide; to cause disengagement; to demoralize; to instill fears and to introduce false focal points for these fears; to manipulate the historical narrative; to create a false sense of the present reality; and ultimately, to cause people to acquiesce to what has been planned.

It is impossible to overstate the urgency of Webb’s message – everyone who reads this article should download the book (free) at the link provided above, or at least view the documentary based on it at CHD.TV, Rumble and (I don’t know for how long) YouTube. It makes for compulsive reading – a kind of non-fictional, real-world detective story, where you, the reader, are both the victim of the crime and the one looking over the detective’s shoulder at the evidence that he is digging up.

And is there persuasive evidence! In the ‘court of human justice’ – which should be established, if it does not exist – the primary documentary evidence adduced by Webb would be sufficient to incarcerate all of these culprits, if not condemn them to capital punishment (recalling that, etymologically, ‘capital,’ or ‘of the head’ in Latin, relates to one’s head, which was usually implicated in hanging and decapitation; it also echoes in ‘wearing a cap’). That Webb knows only too well how he has exposed himself (and his family) with this book – and earlier, in addresses where he shared his findings with audiences in Sweden and the US – is clear where he writes, against the backdrop of the two occasions where he presented his insights, together with evidence (p. xxx):

Less than a month after speaking at that conference in the U.S., a man contacted me who asked to meet in Stockholm. He had been the Chairman of a U.S. political party, and had a long career related to the defense establishment. He stayed at a hotel within a short walking distance from my apartment. We had lunch. He suggested a pint of ale. He asked me to explain the subject of which I had spoken at the conference. I went through the evidence and implications. The odd thing is that he then asked no questions about the subject. Instead, he fixed me in the eye and said, ‘Does your family know you are doing this?’ He said nothing more; that was the end of the meeting. I paid the bill and left. Perhaps it had been a ‘courtesy call.’

We all have to die sometime, and being assassinated must be among the most honorable ways to do it. One must have been doing something right! Made a difference! No classier way to die, really. I always wanted to be like John Lennon!

One could easily be fooled by Webb’s debonair shrugging-off of what could indeed have been a thinly veiled death threat from his dinner guest, but the fact remains that anyone who has the courage to oppose the psychopaths trying to hijack the world runs a tremendous risk, the more high-profile such opposition becomes. This is shown in the recent death ‘by suicide’ (yeah, right!) of Janet Ossebaard, who made the series, The Fall of the Cabal, and was involved in the unmasking of a network of pedophiles. The chances that she committed suicide, as reported, are pretty slim, I would say; she was evidently a thorn in the side of the murderous cabal.

Returning to Webb’s book, he tellingly recounts how, after 9/11, when he saw all the signs of a deteriorating US economy everywhere, concomitantly there were undeniable indications that the Bush administration was spreading disinformation on this, covering it up by disseminating spurious reports of American economic strength. 

In reality, however, the opposite was the case, symptomatic of which was the rapid shutting down of American manufacturing capacity and outsourcing it to China (which was obviously in on the deal). Nothing less than the (planned) loss of the American industrial base was occurring, while, accompanying this, Alan Greenspan was lauding the putative “productivity miracle” resulting from technology investment and development. It was a masterly performance of pulling the wool over Americans’ eyes. 

Simultaneously, the impression of prosperity was further solidified by projecting the illusion that there was no risk in borrowing money; the ability to repay loans was ostensibly guaranteed. Webb’s persistent, perspicacious sleuthing has uncovered the trail which reveals the steps taken years ago to prepare for the global economic collapse we are facing now. This included the 2008 financial collapse, of which he writes wryly (p. xxviii): 

In the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis it eventually became known that tens of trillions in losses in derivative positions were housed in the biggest banks, which were then bailed out with newly created money. The prime brokers would have failed, but to prevent that they were made banks and also received direct injections of created money from the Fed. No one was prosecuted. On the contrary, the perpetrators were rewarded with enormous bonuses. It was almost as if it had all gone according to plan.

If I understand Webb correctly, this is the strategy that has been repeated several times, at least since the second half of the 19th century, resulting in the rich getting (much) richer and the poor getting (much) poorer. In brief, focusing on “Velocity of Money” (VOM) – “Velocity multiplied by Money Supply = GDP. Lower Velocity results in lower GDP” (p. 3) – Webb shows that, given the cyclical collapse of economies and empires in the 20th century, following the Great War, and the demonstrable benefit, despite all this hardship, of certain banking interests regarding control (and creation) of money, as well as of key institutions, the contemporary ‘heirs’ of all this control knew that a similar collapse would recur. They have been preparing for it. And they are determined to remain in control. Hence the supposed ‘Great Reset.’ 

During the Dot-com bubble and bust period Webb studied the relationship between financial markets and the Federal Reserve bank, and realised that the latter was deliberately influencing the former by manipulating the money supply – that is, routinely printing more money than, correlatively, GDP growth. If money supply growth is more than GDP growth, a financial bubble develops, divorced from any real economic growth. By the end of 1999 the money supply had increased by more than 40% of GDP annually, signaling that VOM was imploding. 

Does this sound familiar? Since the start of the plandemic trillions of US dollars have been printed, accelerating the widening of the gap between money supply and real economic productivity, and thus hastening the financial collapse. This is what the cabal wants. After all, as Webb tersely remarks (p. 4), “Crises do not occur by accident; they are induced intentionally and used to consolidate power and to put in place measures, which will be used later.” Rather apocalyptically, he continues (pp 5-6):

VOM has now contracted to a lower level than at any point during the Great Depression and world wars. Once the ability to produce growth by printing money has been exhausted, creating more money will not help. It is pushing on a string. The phenomenon is irreversible. And so, perhaps the announcement of the ‘Great Reset’ has been motivated not by ‘Global Warming’ or by profound insights into a ‘Fourth Industrial Revolution,’ but rather by certain knowledge of the collapse of this fundamental monetary phenomenon, the implications of which extend far beyond economics.

Just how far becomes increasingly clear as one reads through this densely documented book – not a book with many pages, but a ‘big’ book as far as the importance of its theme (and its substantiation) is concerned. Given the number of reports and other sources which Webb cites, it is impossible to do justice here to all their details and their pertinence for Webb’s argument, that the so-called elites have spent years to prepare for a ‘super-cycle’ collapse that will necessitate the transition to a New World Order, with them still in control. I can therefore only lift out the salient parts of his argument. The first is neatly captured where he writes (p. 7):

There are now no property rights to securities held in book-entry form in any jurisdiction, globally. In the grand scheme to confiscate all collateral, dematerialization of securities was the essential first step. The planning and efforts began over half a century ago.

Not only was the CIA intimately involved in this “dematerialization” – which essentially meant moving from paper-based stock certificate archiving, to a computer-based system – but the CIA project leader was moved to a senior position in the banking sector without any banking experience. Webb raises the possibility, interrogatively, that the ensuing “paperwork crisis” was “manufactured” to justify the dematerialisation process, which paved the way for the present electronic archiving system worldwide.

Small wonder the epigraph for this chapter is a quote from Sun Tzu (which is just as applicable to today): “All warfare is based on deception.” This also covers the topic of the next chapter: “Security Entitlement,” of which Webb writes (p. 9): “The greatest subjugation in world history will have been made possible by the invention of a construct; a subterfuge; a lie: the ‘Security Entitlement.’”

And indeed, having informed one that, since their inception more than 400 years ago, these “tradable financial instruments” were recognised, by law, as personal property, he hits the reader with the news that this is not the case any longer. In practice, Webb explains, this implies that even if, wishing to avoid the complications of a car dealership possibly going bust after purchasing a car on an installment plan, one has bought it for cash, this will no longer work. Security entitlements have been changed legally to permit creditors of the bankrupt car dealership to seize your car as an asset that still belongs to the dealership. 

Webb sums this legal coup up as follows (p. 10): “Essentially all securities ‘owned’ by the public in custodial accounts, pension plans and investment funds are now encumbered as collateral underpinning the derivatives complex…” The “protected class” have legally stolen all our assets from us even before the anticipated (and engineered) global financial implosion occurs (if it does). Moreover, through additional legislation, this has been ‘harmonised’ to ensure that “secured creditors” be guaranteed that their assets be protected through “cross-border mobility of legal control of such collateral” (p. 16). Furthermore, ‘safe harbour’ provisions were made timeously to protect the ruling class (p. 32): 

In 2005, less than two years before the onset of the Global Financial Crisis, ‘safe harbor’ provisions in the U.S. Bankruptcy code were significantly changed. ‘Safe harbor’ sounds like a good thing, but again, this was about making it absolutely certain that secured creditors can take client assets, and that this cannot be challenged subsequently. This was about ‘safe harbor’ for secured creditors against demands of customers to their own assets.

It gets worse. It turns out that, if something called Central Clearing Parties – tasked with providing “clearing and settlement for trades” in a variety of financial transactions – is insufficiently capitalised to prepare for the eventuality of failing, and such a failure occurs, “it is the secured creditors who will take the assets of the entitlement holders. This is where it is going. It is designed to happen suddenly, and on a vast scale.” Webb goes on to disabuse readers of the belief that the so-called “Bank Holiday” ended the Great Depression (Chapter VIII), and of believing Ben Bernanke’s promise, in 2002, that the Federal Reserve “won’t do it again” (i.e. make its mistakes regarding what led to the Great Depression). Instead, he cautions (p. 46):

Is the Fed indeed ‘very sorry?’ Can one believe the promise that ‘we won’t do it again?’ They have studied the lessons of the past in detail; however, their purpose has been to prepare a new and improved global version for the spectacular end of this debt expansion super-cycle. That’s what this book is about.

Webb’s elaboration on The Great Deflation (Chapter IX) is a salutary reminder that this kind of thing has happened before, in the 1930s, albeit not on the scale that is being planned this time. In the Conclusion (p. 64) he drives his point home by confronting readers with the stark reality of what is happening; I feel like quoting the whole of this powerful chapter, but obviously that is redundant, because the book can (and should) be downloaded free via the link provided near the beginning of this article – please read it; it is imperative to read all the detail that cannot be supplied here. Here is a smattering of citations from it:

As a human being, should this not concern you? What part of the organized slaughter of vast numbers of innocent people can you find acceptable? Do you believe that you are special in some way, that you were being protected, or that you will be protected now?

There has been abundant evidence of great evil at work in the world, throughout time and in our present time. Do you really wish to be ignorant of its existence and operation? (p.64.)

To not know is bad. To not want to know is worse. 

 Willful ignorance of the existence and operation of evil is a luxury even the wealthy can no longer afford. 

We are in the grip of the greatest evil humanity has ever faced (or refused to acknowledge, as the case may be). Hybrid war is unlimited. It has no bounds. It is global, and it is inside your head. It is never-ending. (p. 65.)

We have witnessed designs and real attempts to exert physical control over every person’s body, globally, and this is continuing…Why is this happening? 

 I will make a startling assertion. This is not because the power to control is increasing. It is because this power is indeed collapsing. The ‘control system’ has entered collapse. 

 Their power has been based on deception. Their two great powers of deception, money and media, have been extremely energy-efficient means of control. But these powers are now in rampant collapse. This is why they have moved urgently to institute physical control measures. However, physical control is difficult, dangerous and energy-intensive. And so, they are risking all. They are risking being seen. Is this not a sign of desperation? (pp. 67-68.)

Never before has a system benefitted so few at the great expense of so many. Is this not inherently unstable and unsustainable? Physical control, as opposed to rule by deception, requires enormous energy. Can this be sustained while destroying all economies, and abusing all people, globally? They do not know how to ‘build back better.’ Look at their footprint around the world—the destruction, the economic devastation. (p. 68.)

Let me close with John F. Kennedy’s own words: 

Our problems are man-made;

therefore, they can be solved by man. (p. 70.)

In turn, I shall conclude with the last paragraph of Webb’s Prologue; let us take this to heart, spread the link to his book far and wide, and, to quote Naomi Wolf’s recent book’s title, ‘face the beast’ bravely and resolutely:

It is my hope that in making this unpleasantness explicit, and doing so at this time when developments are becoming more apparent, that awareness might spread, and that the worst might be averted. Perhaps this Great Taking might not be allowed to happen if we each hold up our end—even the investment bankers—and say forcefully: we will not allow this. It is a construct. It is not real.

Amen.

Tyler Durden
Sun, 01/07/2024 – 23:20

The Argentine Peso Was NOT The Most-Devalued Currency Of 2023

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The Argentine Peso Was NOT The Most-Devalued Currency Of 2023

According to Bloomberg’s financial monitor, the currencies of Lebanon and Argentina experienced significant devaluations against the dollar last year.

The Lebanese pound recorded the highest loss of value against the U.S. currency, depreciating by 89.89 percent.

Following close behind is the Argentine peso, which lost nearly 78 percent of its value.

Infographic: The Most Devalued Currencies of 2023 | Statista

You will find more infographics at Statista

Argentina holds the record for the highest number of years with negative GDP growth in the last half-century – a total of 21 years between 1971 and 2022, according to the World Bank.

Furthermore, Argentina ranked as the fourth country with the highest inflation rate in the world last year, according to the latest data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

Tyler Durden
Sun, 01/07/2024 – 22:45

Behind The West’s Collective Failure To Prepare For The Trouble We Now Face

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Behind The West’s Collective Failure To Prepare For The Trouble We Now Face

Authored by Michael Bonner via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

In 1992, both writer and scholar Francis Fukuyama and Disney’s film “Aladdin” promised us “a whole new world.” Thirty-two years later, the world seems much worse than anyone expected, and 2024 may prove to be a major turning point.

Chinese soldiers march past Tiananmen Square before a military parade in Beijing on Sept. 3, 2015. (Kevin Frayer/Getty Images)

“Aladdin” wasn’t very specific about what new world would be like, but Fukuyama, author of “The End of History and the Last Man,” was.

History was an evolutionary process with a goal, he wrote. That goal was liberal democracy, and we had reached it in the late 20th century. The whole world would put aside ideology, and be drawn into the promises of free trade, prosperity, and ever-expanding freedoms. Liberal democracy would not change into anything else, because all other forms of political order or ideology were so bad in comparison. The new world would not be one in which nothing new happened. It would be boring, though, because politics would be more about managing economies than competing visions of the Good Life, or mediating tribal and ideological conflicts. Nevertheless, the only challenge to liberal democracy would come from within: not everyone would want to be equal to everyone else, and some would struggle not within the liberal system but against it. Or so the argument went.

Fukuyama’s vision was easily misinterpreted. Post-Cold War exuberance was seemingly impossible to resist. We had won, and the only serious challenge or potential alternative to Western power and culture was gone. Figuratively speaking, it was easy to sit back, relax, and enjoy the unfolding of an evolutionary process that was not only good but inevitable. This explains the West’s collective failure to predict and to prepare for the trouble we now face. We stopped taking external threats seriously, we systematically disarmed ourselves, cut military budgets, and gave up on our culture. History was over, after all.

This was foolish. There clearly are, and always have been, malign actors in the world who do not wish us well, and who do not want liberal democracy at home. They resent it abroad too. Strongmen and autocrats of adversarial regimes have little in common except the desire to see the West humiliated or at least taken down a few pegs. But they are now working together to try to achieve exactly that. They detected weakness and acted as soon as the West was most vulnerable and distracted.

So far, we have seen constant election interference, warfare in Ukraine, and more recently war in Gaza (initiated by Hamas and Iran’s prompting). Will these problems grow and spread? Will China seize the opportunity to invade Taiwan soon?

Any of those possibilities may test Western, and especially American, resolve to the breaking point. Our enemies know this. They also know that the main question will not be whether Western militaries are up to the challenge—though that is definitely a question worth pondering. What we need to ask ourselves above all is whether or not the West, and especially America, has enough self-confidence to stand up for its own interests. There will be no point in continuing to defend a Western-made international system if no one believes in it and no one wants to preserve our values.

If the West, with America at its head, is too divided or preoccupied with internal matters to police the world system that it created, and to punish those who seek to undermine it, then authoritarians and strongmen will keep pushing, taunting, and attacking us until we give up and withdraw.

I raise these matters now, because the world in 2024 looks set to be much more dangerous and violent than it has been in a long time. The trouble is not just abroad, but also at home in the form of violent protest and hyper-polarization. Looming in the distance, drawing closer by the day, is the spectre of the U.S. presidential election in November. Whatever the outcome, it seems likely that the losing side won’t recognize the legitimacy of the winner as in 2016 and 2020. But let’s hope this isn’t how things turn out.

In the meantime, let’s hope and pray that we can reconnect ourselves with the values that made the West great, and recover the nerve required to defend ourselves and the world that we built.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times.

Tyler Durden
Sun, 01/07/2024 – 22:10

The AARP Just Told Its 38 Million Members To Get An 8th (Yes, Eighth!!) Shot Of mRNA

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The AARP Just Told Its 38 Million Members To Get An 8th (Yes, Eighth!!) Shot Of mRNA

Authored by Alex Berenson via ‘Unreported Truths’ substack,

AARP? Or AARPfizer?

The lobbying group for older Americans just told its nearly 38 million members to “hustle” for another Covid jab, even if they have already had five boosters.

See for yourself. The following question-and-answer column ran in the organization’s December “AARP Bulletin”:

AARP is open to anyone 50 or older.

The column does not specify a narrower or higher age range for its recommendation.

Thus it implies that even a 50-year-old who has not already had six “Covid boosters” needs to “catch up” with another immediately.

Keep in mind that someone who has had “five Covid boosters” has actually received seven mRNA jabs – the initial two-shot primary vaccination regimen, followed by five boosters.

Thus AARP is suggesting its members should be taking their eighth jab of mRNA in the last three years.

Yet scientists have essentially no safety data beyond a third shot, much less a fourth or more, and thus no way of knowing if the risks of repeated mRNA dosing rise with each shot.

AARP’s unbelievably bad advice doesn’t end there.

The column then goes on to tell members that “the most recent shot, which was released in September 2023, isn’t actually a booster. It’s a new vaccine that targets the latest variants.”

A what-now? A new vaccine?

Wow.

Guess it must have gone through the randomized trials that are required in the United States for any new drug or vaccine.

No?

Let’s just call it a new vaccine anyway, since our elderly readers have gotten kinda suspicious of the failure of the Covid shots they’ve already taken.

But the article ends on a happy note: Researchers are even working on a combined COVID-flu vaccine, so a few years from now, a single shot from your doctor or pharmacy may be all you need to protect yourself fully…

If the side effects from the 23 mRNA jabs you’ve taken by then don’t kill you first!

(No, you shouldn’t. REALLY.)

*  *  *

Subscribe to ‘Unreported Truths’ substack here

Tyler Durden
Sun, 01/07/2024 – 21:35

Which US Cities Have The Most Million-Dollar ‘Mansions’

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Which US Cities Have The Most Million-Dollar ‘Mansions’

Nearly one-in-ten U.S. homes are now worth at least $1 million.

Analysis from Redfin has found that 8.2% of homes in America were million-dollar homes as of June 2023, nearing the June 2022 peak of 8.6%.

In the graphic above, Visual Capitalist’s Marcus Lu uses Redfin and MLS data to highlight the top 15 U.S. cities by their percentage of million-dollar homes, based on June 2023 home values in metropolitan statistical areas (MSA).

Top 15 U.S. Metros by Share of Million-Dollar Residences

California has seen an exodus of residents over the last few years due to many factors, but the state still has the highest share of million-dollar homes in the country by far.

Cities in California claimed the top six spots by share of million-dollar homes in June 2023. Here are the top 15, along with the change since June 2022 in percentage points (p.p.).

First is San Francisco, where 81% of homes were worth at least $1 million. This is actually lower than the year previous, which saw 84.2% of homes cost more than one million dollars.

Neighboring San Jose, home of Silicon Valley, was second place with million-dollar homes accounting for 80% of residences. The entire San Francisco Bay Area is the most expensive real estate market in America, with Oakland also having 49% of homes costing $1 million or more.

Southern California also featured prominently, with Anaheim (55%) actually outranking San Diego (40%) and Los Angeles (38%). The first non-California metro to make the rankings was Hawaii’s Honolulu at 38%.

Other regions to feature at the top of the rankings were the Western U.S. (Seattle and Salt Lake City) and the Northeast (New York City, Bridgeport, and Boston). Miami was the sole entry from the South, with far lower shares of million-dollar homes in major metros like Dallas-Fort Worth, Atlanta, and Phoenix.

Share of Million-Dollar Homes Doubled Since 2019

One reason for the increase in housing prices is intense competition for those trying to enter the housing market.

Many existing homeowners are opting to stay put in their current residences to retain their relatively low mortgage rates, with the U.S. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage reaching its highest level since 2002.

Subsequently, the high cost of financing has also caused development to slow down. But high demand from new potential homeowners has propelled prices to new heights. According to Redfin, the share of homes worth seven figures has doubled since before the pandemic.

Tyler Durden
Sun, 01/07/2024 – 20:25

‘High On Likes’: Driving Under The Influence Of Social Media At The Crossroad Of Freedom & Serfdom

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‘High On Likes’: Driving Under The Influence Of Social Media At The Crossroad Of Freedom & Serfdom

Authored by Thaddeus McCotter via American Greatness,

As the New Year commences, I peeked into the rearview mirror and rediscovered an article that appeared in Lisa DePasquale’s diurnal newsletter, Bright. Published on January 3, 2023, by StudyFinds [one word], the headline was a terse red flag for the future of our free republic: The Social Disaster: Children Who Frequently Check Social Media Face Significant Brain Changes.”

Based upon a then recent study from the University of North Carolina, the gist of the article is in equal parts instructive and alarming:

‘The findings suggest that children who grow up checking social media more often are becoming hypersensitive to feedback from their peers,’ says Eva Telzer, a professor in UNC-Chapel Hill’s psychology and neuroscience department and a corresponding author, in a statement.

‘Social media platforms provide adolescents with unprecedented opportunities for social interactions during a critical developmental period when the brain is especially sensitive to social feedback,’ the study concludes. This longitudinal cohort study suggests that social media behaviors in early adolescence may be associated with changes in adolescents’ neural development, specifically neural sensitivity to potential social feedback.

It is not difficult to understand Big Tech’s venal motives for catering to customers’ psychology to increase their use of social media: the corporations’ already humongous profits.

But the societal dimension of hardwiring youth to become hypersensitive to “social feedback”—i.e., “peer pressure”—within their network will have an immense and deleterious impact upon a free society.

Certainly, it is not lost upon the administrative state, who is hellbent upon controlling (often in conjunction with legacy/regime media) both the means and messages of citizens’ interactions on social media, be it censorship, pushing bogus, statist narratives, etc.

Per the paper published in JAMA Pediatrics, “students who look at social media at least 15 times daily were the most sensitive to social feedback.”

While these students are the most at risk, their peers are not far behind them:

“Previous research shows that 78 percent of 13- to 17-year-olds report checking their devices at least hourly each day and 35 percent look at the top five networks ‘almost constantly.’”

Understandably, the researchers assert that “further research examining long-term prospective associations between social media use, adolescent neural development, and psychological adjustment is needed to understand the effects of a ubiquitous influence on development for today’s adolescents.”

Let’s give them an admittedly non-expert head start on this research by gazing back even further in our rearview mirror to March 20, 2018, where StudyFinds previously published another alarming article,It’s Not Your Smartphone You’re Addicted to, It’s the Social Interaction.”

It’s author, Ben Renner, succinctly lays out the findings by the researchers at McGill University:

“[people’s] urge to socialize is actually an ingrained human need resulting from eons of evolution. For those who argue spending too much time on a smartphone makes a person anti-social, the authors say overuse is actually the product of being hyper-social.”

McGill psychiatry professor Samuel Veissière admitted, “There is a lot of panic surrounding this topic. We’re trying to offer some good news and show that it is our desire for human interaction that is addictive – and there are fairly simple solutions to deal with this.”

What, one may ask, is “this?”

“Many of the most addictive smartphone apps such as Facebook or Snapchat tap into this constant search for meaning and the ingrained desire to see others and be seen by them… Veissière insists the need for social interaction is a positive instinct, but in the age of constant connectivity to the internet and the variety of social platforms it provides, that instinct can be kicked into ‘overdrive,’ leading to unhealthy addictions.”

Okay, but what are the proposed “simple solutions?”

“Veissière and his team recommend turning off push notifications on your phone if possible and purposefully setting aside time to check your phone to help battle these addictive impulses.”

Yet, for a hypersocial citizenry addicted to social media and “high on likes,” these simple solutions are the hardest, as anyone experienced in treating substance abuse addictions can attest.

And it is almost impossible when the institutions subverted by the elitist Left are colluding to use social media “approval” to compel the citizenry into compliance with the state’s directives.

Adjusting the rearview mirror to 2020, the COVID pandemic provided the paradigm by which we can view the damaging effects of the administrative state’s coordinating with Big Tech, Big Pharma, the legacy/regime media, academia, and their shock troops of left-wing trolls (paid and otherwise) to enforce its arbitrary and capricious effects upon the populace.

“Wear the mask” and “get the vaccination” meant you are a good citizen; if not, you are a homicidal cretin “killing people” and worthy of any punishment society wishes to inflict upon you.

So, too, 2020 also showed how the administrative state and Big Tech could collude on election interference by denying and censoring stories about the Hunter Biden laptop.

Anyone trying to bring the truth to light was censored and “deplatformed” from their social network and its feedback—a cyberspace shunning.

Now, in 2024, through the deliberate, debilitating din of the Communications Revolution, we can glean the insidious aim of the administrative state, Big Tech, and a host of leftist institutions and minions: the erosion of individual liberty and the perverse inversion of subordinating sovereign citizens into subjects of the government. Doesn’t history instruct how, in attempted revolutions/coups, the cabal urgently prioritizes capturing and controlling society’s means of communication? Using social media to cajole, coerce, and inure citizens into conforming within the “collective” and its “hyper-socialism,” the Left’s first punishment for exercising non-state-sanctioned, independent thought and dissent is and will continue to be the ostracization from one’s social interactions. Other punishments, such as job loss, harassment lawsuits, etc., will follow. Frankly, what is being “cancelled” but being locked in a virtual gulag?

Thus, while the solutions may be simple, such as dismantling the administrative state, reforming their colluding leftist infested institutions, and offering hope to those addicted to “likes,” etc. – they will be decidedly difficult. But the future of our free republic requires an intervention. Inaction is not an option, especially given the speed AI is metastasizing within an already social media addled populace.

For those whose decisions are driven in whole or in part by social media, they may well refuse to admit the problem as they wheel and whistle past the graveyard of individuality and liberty. For those of us not driving under the influence of social media, as we peer out the windshield to the crossroad of freedom and serfdom ahead, one has the sensation of time slowing down as a collision unfolds.

Tyler Durden
Sun, 01/07/2024 – 19:50