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Thousands Of Doctors Take Legal Action Against Transgender Mandate

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Thousands Of Doctors Take Legal Action Against Transgender Mandate

Authored by Jacob Burg via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

A group of 3,000 doctors and medical professionals is suing the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) over a mandate that broadens the term “sex” in federal civil rights statutes to include “gender identity” and “sexual orientation.”

(Illustration by The Epoch Times, Getty Images, Shutterstock)

The group argues that the rule, among other things, forces physicians who see Medicaid patients or receive federal funding to provide “gender-affirming” care to children who want to transition to the opposite sex. This includes prescribing hormone treatments and puberty blockers and performing surgery such as removing girls’ breasts.

The doctors challenging the rule say it will force them to provide that kind of treatment, even if they think it’s medically wrong for the patient or if it goes against their religious beliefs. That makes it unconstitutional, they say.

As such, the Alliance Defending Freedom (ADF) filed a lawsuit on behalf of the American College of Pediatricians, an adolescent care obstetrics and gynecology doctor, and Catholic Medical Associates.

The lawsuit, filed on Aug. 26, 2021, asks the court to block HHS from penalizing doctors for refusing to provide gender-altering treatments to children for any reason.

The case initially was dismissed by a lower court when the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) filed a motion claiming that it would honor doctors’ constitutional right to refuse such treatments.

However, ADF attorney Chris Schandevel said his clients worry that a dismissed case could mean DOJ officials could reverse the department’s stance at any time. So he’s seeking an injunction to specifically prevent HHS or any other federal agency from disciplining doctors who refuse to give children such treatments for any reason.

The 6th Circuit of the U.S. Court of Appeals in Cincinnati heard oral arguments on the case on Dec. 6. The appellate court has jurisdiction over federal appeals from cases originating in Kentucky, Michigan, Tennessee, and Ohio.

The court’s decision could take up to three months. If denied, plaintiffs could seek review from the U.S. Supreme Court.

A person wearing rainbow socks stands on a stairway during a drag show at a brewery in Louisville, Ky., on June 4, 2021. (Jon Cherry/Getty Images)

By Order of the President

The HHS mandate in May 2021 followed an executive order issued four months earlier by President Joe Biden. The order expanded the interpretation of “sex” beyond a person’s biology, to include a person’s declared “gender identity” or “sexual orientation.”

“Every person should be treated with respect and dignity and should be able to live without fear, no matter who they are or whom they love,” President Biden’s order states. “Children should be able to learn without worrying about whether they will be denied access to the restroom, the locker room, or school sports.

“Adults should be able to earn a living and pursue a vocation knowing that they will not be fired, demoted, or mistreated because of whom they go home to or because how they dress does not conform to sex-based stereotypes. People should be able to access healthcare and secure a roof over their heads without being subjected to sex discrimination. All persons should receive equal treatment under the law, no matter their gender identity or sexual orientation.”

Federal agencies indicated that this interpretation would extend into discrimination clauses in the Affordable Care Act (ACA). And that could require doctors to provide treatment to children and adults who identify as transgender and want to undergo a “transition” to a new gender identity, Mr. Schandevel said.

The mandate could apply to any health care providers who receive federal money, such as those accepting patients on Medicaid or with ACA health insurance coverage, also known as Obamacare.

President Joe Biden signs executive orders on health care as with Vice President Kamala Harris looks on, in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington on Jan. 28, 2021. (Mandal Ngan/AFP via Getty Images)

This “gender-affirming” care would extend to pediatric services and potentially bring about disciplinary action for physicians refusing for any reason to provide that care to children, Mr. Schandevel said.

The DOJ filed a motion to dismiss the lawsuit on July 19, 2022, claiming that the HHS hasn’t mandated that health care providers “perform all kinds of gender transition services, even providers who have religious objections” and that the lawsuit begins on a “false premise” by suggesting that such a mandate exists.

HHS attorneys assert in the motion that their interpretation of President Biden’s executive order means “sex discrimination extends to gender-identity discrimination.”

But, they write, this doesn’t indicate that doctors opposed to providing gender-altering treatments “fall within the scope of unlawful gender-identity discrimination, and HHS has consistently affirmed that the Religious Freedom Restoration Act and other religious defenses may be raised, on a case-by-case basis, to a charge of discrimination.”

But for Mr. Schandevel and the doctors he represents, that’s not enough.

Outside of the courtroom, in their public statements, the administration has given every indication that they plan to enforce this gender-identity mandate as broadly as possible,” he said.

“They have given every indication that they plan to come after doctors, like our doctors, that we’re representing in this case.”

Mr. Schandevel cites a notice dated March 2, 2022, from the HHS Office for Civil Rights (OCR) that invites patients and parents to file complaints with the OCR if they feel they have been denied “gender-affirming” care.

“As a law enforcement agency, OCR is investigating and, where appropriate, enforcing Section 1557 of the Affordable Care Act cases involving discrimination on the basis of sexual orientation and gender identity in accordance with all applicable law,” the notice reads.

The Department of Health and Human Services building in Washington on July 22, 2019. (Alastair Pike/AFP via Getty Images)

“This means that if people believe they have been discriminated against in a health program or activity that receives financial assistance from HHS, they can file a complaint.”

Mr. Schandevel said that doctors who ADF represents shouldn’t have to just take the DOJ at its word and just hope that it won’t violate the doctors’ rights.

We should be able to get a court to say that their rights are protected,” He said.

“Our doctors have every reason to fear that if they say no, that they’re not going to [perform a sex-change operation] that the federal government is going to try to take away their federal funding based on that conscientious practice of medicine.”

Concerned Pediatricians

Pediatricians represented by Mr. Schandevel are wary of “gender-affirming” care for children for reasons beyond personal convictions, he said.

Dr. Quentin Van Meter, a pediatrician and pediatric endocrinologist with five decades of experience, said he read “the broad medical literature across the spectrum on the subject” and came to a decision that he can live with his code of medical ethics.

Dr. Van Meter contended that the research used to validate pediatric gender-altering treatments is often “cherry-picked”—researchers make conclusions that don’t support the data collected.

Proponents of helping children try to alter their gender identity argue that access to such childhood procedures lowers the rate of suicide among minors who identify as transgender.

They often cite a 2020 study, published by the American Academy of Pediatrics, that purportedly establishes that link.

A child walks on Waikiki beach in Honolulu, Hawaii, on Sept. 6, 2001. (Mike Nelson/AFP via Getty Images)

A 2019 study published in the American Journal of Psychiatry studied the same phenomenon—the alleged lowered risks of suicide for children receiving “gender-affirming” care.

In that study’s conclusions, researchers argued that children receiving gender-altering procedures have much higher levels of anxiety and mood disorders before treatment than other children. They wrote that these procedures, such as hormone blockers or surgery, lowered the need for anxiety and mood care once the child received treatment affirming a new gender.

However, that study drew ire from other researchers, who sent letters to the journal’s editors challenging the statistical methodology employed in the study.

Upon request, the authors reanalyzed the data,” according to a correction published by the American Journal of Psychiatry on Aug. 1, 2020. “The results demonstrated no advantage of surgery in relation to subsequent mood or anxiety disorder-related health care visits or prescriptions or hospitalizations following suicide attempts in that comparison.”

Dr. Van Meter said he believes that “the scientific validity of what they’re basing their treatment protocol on is based on so little valid science that it must cease and desist immediately.”

The Swedish Approach

Dr. Van Meter also pointed to recent changes to the official position of the governments of Sweden and Norway on the issue.

Sweden, which has had broad tolerance for the LGBT community, recently reversed its previous official position on “gender-affirming” care for minors through its National Board of Health and Welfare (NBHW), saying “the risks outweigh the benefits at this point.”

“Uncertain science and newly acquired knowledge means that the National Board of Health and Welfare now recommends restraint when it comes to hormone treatment,” a translation of the NBHW announcement reads.

Read the rest here…

Tyler Durden
Thu, 12/21/2023 – 17:00

“In Argentina, Contracts Can Be Settled In Bitcoin”, Foreign Minister Affirms

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“In Argentina, Contracts Can Be Settled In Bitcoin”, Foreign Minister Affirms

In a groundbreaking statement, Argentina’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, Diana Mondino, has confirmed the country’s stance on embracing Bitcoin for contractual agreements.

In a Dec. 21 post on X (formerly Twitter), Mondino said that a decree seemingly aimed at economic reform and deregulation would allow the use of BTC and other cryptocurrencies in the country under certain conditions.

The ‘Bases for the Reconstruction of the Argentine Economy’ decree, passed on Dec. 20, did not specifically mention crypto but included provisions that debtors had the choice to pay in currencies not recognized as legal tender in Argentina.

“We ratify and confirm that in Argentina contracts can be settled in Bitcoin,” said Mondino. “And also any other crypto.”

As Bitcoin Magazine’s Nik Hoffman notes, Mondino’s declaration heralds a pivotal moment for legal recognition of BTC within Argentina, demonstrating the nation’s progressive approach towards integrating crypto in the country.

This announcement arrives a month after Javier Milei, who has made very positive comments about Bitcoin in the past, won Argentina’s presidential candidacy.

Milei has previously stated, “The central bank is a scam, a mechanism by which politicians cheat the good people with inflationary tax.” Then saying Bitcoin “represents the return of money to its original creator, the private sector,” and that “it prevents politicians from robbing you through inflation.”

The Minister’s assertion further underlines Argentina’s efforts to leverage the potential of Bitcoin to stimulate economic growth and innovation.

By accepting Bitcoin as a valid form of contractual agreement, the government aims to foster an environment conducive to investment and business development within the country.

While the details regarding the implementation and legal nuances remain to be outlined, Mondino’s statement marks a crucial step forward in legitimizing Bitcoin as a recognized means of conducting formal agreements within Argentina. The move may also serve as a catalyst, encouraging other nations to consider similar initiatives in integrating Bitcoin into their legal frameworks.

Tyler Durden
Thu, 12/21/2023 – 15:45

Biden Is Using The Term Bidenomics Again, What Else Can He Do?

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Biden Is Using The Term Bidenomics Again, What Else Can He Do?

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

Biden abandoned the term Bidenomics for over a month. He’s now back at it, with Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen tooting his horn…

Biden Drops the Term Bidenomics

From June through November 1, Biden used the term Bidenomics over 100 times. Then he stopped using it.

On December 6, I commented Biden Drops the Term Bidenomics, Republicans Would Be Wise to Use it Instead

It seems that Biden has lost faith in Bidenomics, but his staff hasn’t. The public had no faith to begin with.

You say you lost your faith, but that’s not where it’s at
You had no faith to lose and you know it

In case you don’t recognize those lines, they are from Positively 4th Street, written many decades ago by Bod Dylan.

Bidenomics is Back!

Perhaps because he has nothing else, Bidenomics is back.

On December 20, Biden Pitched ‘Bidenomics’ to Black voters in Milwaukee

“When you increase the middle-class, the poor have a shot and the wealthy still do very well. The middle-class does well and we all do well. That’s what we call Bidenomics,” the president said, flanked by blue and green signs that read, “Bidenomics: America’s Small Business Boom.”

Some Democrats have wondered whether the White House should continue to use that slogan. A recent Wall Street Journal poll found the majority of those surveyed, 52%, had an unfavorable view of “Bidenomics,” while 29% had a favorable view. 

Doubling Down With Janet Yellen

WSJ: “Why do you think there is this disconnect, and are you concerned about the fact that the administration’s message around ‘Bidenomics’ isn’t landing?”

Yellen: “The pandemic caused an enormous amount of disruption of people’s lives, and we’re still in the aftermath of what’s been a serious shock. And we’ve had serious global shocks. And, although prices are rising at a much slower pace than they were, inflation is substantially off its highs.”

“The level of prices of some things that people buy and are important to them are higher. A good example would be rents. Rents have gone up considerably.”

Bidenomics Is Working for the Middle Class

Yesterday, Janet Yellen had this Op-Ed in the Wall Street Journal: Bidenomics Is Working for the Middle Class

When you have done everything humanly possible to increase inflation and sow the seeds of more inflation, and when the best thing you can come up with is a lie, the fallback strategy of repeating the lie is all you can do.

Rate Cut Headwinds

  • Global wage arbitrage and just-in-time manufacturing have reversed to inflationary onshoring and just-in-case manufacturing.

  • Neither party will fix deficits and out of control spending.

  • Trump’s tariffs and sanctions were hugely inflationary but Biden is much worse.

  • Biden’s energy policy and regulatory madness is hugely inflationary.

  • Retiring boomers need more medical care services. Their jobs are replaced by unskilled zoomers with a totally different work ethic.

  • Massive wage increases in union contracts over a many year period and ongoing minimum wage hikes in many states.

For years I was one of the biggest deflationistas around.

But many factors supporting lower interest rates and lower inflation have changed 180 degrees from tailwinds to headwinds.

If inflation is transitory, then transitory to what?

For discussion, please see Huge Moves in the Yield Curve This Year, What’s Going On?

Regarding the huge inversion between 1 month and five years then strongly steepening: Could it be the bond market smells a short quick recession followed by a big inflation problem coming down the pike?

Government Accounts for Nearly 25 Percent of All Job Gains in 2023

Finally please note Government Accounts for Nearly 25 Percent of All Job Gains in 2023

That’s hardly a sign of sustainable strength.

Tyler Durden
Thu, 12/21/2023 – 15:20

Smash-And-Grab Gang Loots Chanel Store Blocks From White House

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Smash-And-Grab Gang Loots Chanel Store Blocks From White House

Mayor Muriel Bowser’s leadership in Washington, DC, has become a spectacular disaster. The nation’s capital is grappling with a massive surge in carjackings and murders – no thanks to her failed social justice reforms (such as defunding the police). 

For example…

Bowser might not publicly acknowledge that her progressive policies have failed residents and businesses as they have witnessed a larger swath of the city transform into a crime-ridden hellhole. However, her recent awkward policy shift from years of advocating ‘defunding the police’ to now refunding them shows she’s under severe pressure. 

Why re-fund the police? The cost of Bowser’s terrible progressive policies forced the owner of the NHL’s Capitals and NBA’s Wizards to move the teams outside of the city to neighboring Virginia because of violent crime. 

Even with Bowser’s now supposedly tough-on-crime stance, criminals still feel emboldened to rob and murder like the ‘Grand Theft Auto’ video game. 

The latest shocking incident occurred Sunday at the Chanel store in the 900 block of I Street NW – only blocks from the White House. 

Metro Police said the thieves made off with $250,00 in luxury handbags and other merchandise in a brazen smash-and-grab robbery (similar to robberies in other failed liberal cities, like San Fran). 

Last month, Bowser declared a public emergency over rogue children participating in crime sprees. This trend of youth violence is also happening just north, in imploding Baltimore City. 

Bowser might be one of the biggest leadership failures the metro has ever seen. Even lawmakers are not safe… 

Tyler Durden
Thu, 12/21/2023 – 15:00

Peter Schiff: Did The Fed Steal The Santa Claus Rally?

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Peter Schiff: Did The Fed Steal The Santa Claus Rally?

Via SchiffGold.com,

The US stock market had a potentially significant day on Wednesday. Markets have been rallying on the hope of interest rate cuts in the near future. But Fed officials have been trying to walk back those expectations. Did the central bankers manage to steal the Santa Claus rally? In his podcast, Peter Schiff talks about the recent moves in the stock market.

Wednesday started with another in a string of 52-week highs for all the major stock indices. Markets rallied early in the day despite FedEx dropping after a big revenue miss.

This should throw cold water on this parade that the economy is in great shape because the fact that a lot less stuff is getting shipped is an indication that maybe the consumer is running out of gas. He’s tapped out. He’s leveraged to the max. He has all this credit card debt. People are starting to have to pay their student loans again.”

Nevertheless, the stock market shrugged off that bad news.

Markets also essentially ignored a really bad Treasury bond auction.

But later in the day, markets tanked. After making a record high, the Dow Jones finished down 475 points. The NASDAQ fell 1.3%. The Russell 2000 dropped nearly 2%.

Not only did these indexes close negative after making 52-week highs, but they also closed below the low from the previous day. This is known as an outside reversal. Peter said outside reversal days are particularly relevant when they snap a significant trend.

The market was going higher day after day after day — a relentless string of gains. … All of a sudden, you get this reversal where the market just collapses. The sellers came out in droves and there were no buyers.”

Peter called it “potentially a very ominous technical sign” that we’ve seen a top. Whether it is a short-term or long-term top is hard to say.

It could be the beginning of a correction, not necessarily a new bear market where you see the markets down 20%.

So, what caused this reversal?

Peter said he thinks it was due to the Federal Reserve backtracking after signaling upcoming rate cuts at the December FOMC meeting.

Ever since Powell let the cat out of the bag and basically conceded that rates are coming down, and they’re coming down substantially, the markets got ahead of it. I think the mood on Wall Street was, ‘Happy days are here again. We’re going back to zero! We’re going back to QE.’ Because that is the experience of the past. Once the Fed starts cutting, they don’t stop until they get to zero. That’s what they’ve done in the past. So, why would anybody assume that the future is going to be any different?”

Keep in mind that Powell & Company went from saying the committee wasn’t even talking about rate cuts at the November meeting to projecting rate cuts one month later.

In one meeting, it was a complete pivot on rate cuts. Why shouldn’t the markets expect that a similar pivot is coming with respect to quantitative easing? That’s the big enchilada that coming — a return to QE.”

This brings back memories of 2019 when the Fed started expanding its balance sheet in response to the big stock market selloff in the fall of that year – long before COVID reared its ugly head.

If they couldn’t shrink the smaller balance sheet, it’s even less likely that they can shrink this even larger balance sheet — especially in an election year.”

Peter said you can typically count on the Fed to help an incumbent president in an election year.

So, the markets are getting in front of this. Obviously, it’s an election year. They want to put lipstick on the pig of an economy that is Bidenomics. What can the Fed do? Well, let’s start cutting rates. Let’s go back to quantitative easing. Let’s goose the markets. Let’s get people excited and let them believe that the economy is getting better. And maybe they think, ‘Who cares about these inflation numbers because we’ve just got to make it through the election.’”

But then you had a bunch of Fed members walking back the doveish rhetoric and calling rate cuts into question.

Since that’s the only thing the market has got going for it… It’s all about liquidity. It’s all about inflation. That’s the story. It’s an expensive market and the economy is weak. That’s the hope that the markets have been bid up on.”

Peter said the moves on Wednesday may indicate the markets have surrendered that hope – at least for the time being.

Unless the Fed wants to come to the rescue of the market by now reversing those calls, which it might do if the markets fall enough, we could see some significant downside in the markets given how big this run has been and how the only thing that’s propped it up is a bunch of hot air.”

Tyler Durden
Thu, 12/21/2023 – 14:40

Prague Mayor Laments Mass Shootings “Cannot Be Solved Preventively” After Sniper Kills At Least 15

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Prague Mayor Laments Mass Shootings “Cannot Be Solved Preventively” After Sniper Kills At Least 15

Update(1423ET): Typically after a school shooting or any mass killing incident in the United States, the smoke is not so much as cleared before there are shrill calls from activists and politicians for banning all firearms, or especially assault-style rifles. Within hours, American mainstream media turns such tragedies into an abstract debate over the ability of citizens to keep and bear arms (to quote the second amendment). But Prague Mayor Bohuslav Svoboda had a very different, and more realistic or reasoned response to Thursday’s Prague University shooting, which took the lives of 15, including the killer.

“The thing is, of course, a tragedy, it is a tragedy that occurs in the modern world. We know very well that for a number of years we have been hearing from the United States that there has been an excess of some shooter shooting in a school or on the street or somewhere,” Svoboda said in a press briefing.

“We have always thought that this is a matter that does not concern Europe and us, that this is a matter that is also a given in the United States due to the fact that everyone there is armed, etc.”

“Now, unfortunately, it turns out that our world is also changing and we have the problem of the individual shooter whose reasons for what he does are not entirely clear. And the worst thing about it is that these are things that cannot be solved preventively,” he emphasized.

This logic is even more applicable in the US, where there are literally tens of millions of firearms kept legally in households across the land. However, we don’t expect to hear such down-to-earth discourse in the American mainstream. And interestingly the Prague mayor made such observations within a mere hours of one of the Czech Republic’s worst shootings in its history. According to The New York Times:

The police partially identified the assailant as David K. Speaking at a news conference in Prague, the chief of the national police force, Martin Vondraska, said the assailant “got inspired by a similar terrible event abroad.” He did not specify where.

The shooter, now deceased. Image via Mash

According to a summary by The Telegraph:

  • More than 15 people were killed and 24 injured in the shooting at Charles University in central Prague, police say
  • The gunman was a student at the university’s faculty of arts. He began shooting on the fourth floor and his body was later found by police
  • Up to 200 students were moved to safety across the road from the faculty, and footage gathered by a passer-by showed a crowd fleeing through the streets of central Prague
  • Police said the gunman was a 24-year-old from a village 21km (13m) outside Prague, and the suspect’s father was found dead earlier today
  • Police say it’s thought the shooter was inspired by similar massacres that have taken place abroad
  • It’s the worst fatal shooting since Czech independence 30 years ago
  • Czech President Petr Pavel said he was “shocked by the events” and expressed his “sincere condolences”

* * *

Update(1245ET): The tragedy is already being called one of the Czech Republic’s worst mass shootings in its history, as the police have revised to death toll to at least 15 killed, including the shooter – who committed suicide – and his own father.

“Where tourists, students and others would normally be enjoying the view of the iconic monument instead reflected chaos and terror on Thursday afternoon,” the Associated Press described of the chaotic scene. According to the latest from Axios:

  • The shooter, who was a student at the university, has been “eliminated,” per police. His father was found dead earlier on Thursday, the BBC reported.
  • “I would like to express my deep regret and sincere condolences to the families and relatives of the victims that the shooting claimed,” Petr Pavel, the president of the Czech Republic, said on X.

According to new statements from Interior Minister Vit Rakusan, “There is no indication that this crime has any link to international terrorism” – in reference to the 24-old shooter. Rakusan added: 

“I want to assure the public that there is no immediate danger now,” he said after the gunfire at the university’s Philosophical Faculty ended.

* * *

Update(1105ET): Emerging news wire statements citing Prague emergency response services cite a much larger than expected death toll. Initially, vague police reports said several were dead and wounded, but there may have been at least 11 killed, including the gunman, and nine more seriously wounded. This means twenty or more people were struck by bullets, from a shooter who appeared to have taken up position sniper-style on a high rooftop:

  • SHOOTING IN PRAGUE LEFT 11 PEOPLE DEAD,CTK CITES RESCUE SERVICE
  • SHOOTING IN PRAGUE LEFT NINE PEOPLE SERIOUSLY WOUNDED, CTK SAYS

Police say the shooter has been killed, but likely there are still bystanders holed up in buildings:

An email sent to staff and students at the Faculty of Arts of Charles University, seen by Reuters, had said a shooter was in one of its buildings and had told staff to “stay put”.

“Don’t go anywhere, if you’re in the offices, lock them and place furniture in front of the door, turn off the lights,” the email said. One X user posted a photo of a group of students, hiding crouched on a ledge of the building.

The below unconfirmed image appears to show the shooter with a high-powered rifle with optics taking out people in the university square below…

* * *

Multiple fatalities are being reported in an active situation amid a mass shooting in Prague, Czech Republic. Bystanders have been observed fleeing the grounds of Charles University’s Faculty of Arts in Prague as a huge police response ensues.

One unverified report describes the developing scene as follows: “Prague According to media reports, the attacker used a long-barreled weapon with optics. There are reports of casualties and injuries. At the moment, the entire Jan Palach Square and the surrounding area are completely closed off.”

A police statement has confirmed that several are dead and wounded at the scene, and police soon after have announced that the Prague shooter has been “eliminated”.

The below bridge which people are fleeing across, the Charles Bridge (aka Karluv Most), is among the most popular central tourist attractions in Prague. 

The shooter with a rifle may have been on a roof of one of the university buildings, a newly emerged (but unverified) photo suggests.

According to the Associated Press:

Czech Interior Minister Vit Rakusan told Czech public television the person who opened fire was dead.

Rakusan said there’s no other shooter at the scene and there’s no imminent further danger, but he urged people to cooperate with police.

A scene inside a barricaded classroom at the university as police begin clearing and securing buildings:

And students and bystanders hiding out on the ledge of a roof, in a precarious situation…

developing…

Tyler Durden
Thu, 12/21/2023 – 14:23

Hamas Rejects Israeli Offer For 7-Day Truce As Reported Gaza Death Toll Reaches 20,000

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Hamas Rejects Israeli Offer For 7-Day Truce As Reported Gaza Death Toll Reaches 20,000

Over the last several days there was a flurry of diplomatic activity in Doha and Cairo, as both Israel and the US seemed serious about negotiating another week-long truce. Indeed, the Netanyahu government reportedly offered a ceasefire for seven days and wanted in return 40 more Israeli captives freed. Presumably dozens of Palestinian prisoners in Israeli detention would have been exchanged too.

There were reasons for optimism, given CIA director Bill Burns and Mossad chief David Barnea were in the Qatari capital early this week, while head of Hamas’ political bureau, Ismail Haniyeh, led a “high level” delegation in Cairo. Inside Israel, kidnap victims’ families have been staging round the clock protests outside government ministries and Prime Minister Netanyahu’s office demanding that a new deal be achieved. 

But Haniyeh while in Cairo appeared to put the brakes on such a deal, rejecting the offer while saying Israel’s military must halt its offensive first. Egyptian officials have been cited in The Wall Street Journal as saying the group “wouldn’t discuss releasing their Israeli captives until a cease-fire first goes into effect.”

Rafah, in southern Gaza Strip, Wednesday. via AP

In this instance, the deal was for the first time to include the release of captives being held by Hamas ally Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ). There’s an estimated 130 Israeli and foreign captives that remain. According to details of what was on the table, via WSJ:

In the offer rejected by Hamas, Israel sought the release of 40 hostages, including all the remaining women and children and elderly male hostages who need urgent medical treatment, the Egyptian officials said. In return, the Israeli military would pause its ground and air operations in Gaza for a week and allow further humanitarian aid to enter the enclave, the Egyptian officials said.

The officials said the Hamas rejection didn’t represent a failure in the negotiations, but rather an effort to pressure Israel to offer more concessions.

Thus the negotiations don’t appear completely dead. Netanyahu is under immense domestic and international pressure to free more captives, though he has hawks in his governing coalition that simply want to pursue a total ‘scorched earth’ policy over the Gaza Strip first.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has said that a new deal for the return of captives is “something we’d very much like to see happen.” There are some eight Americans among those still held hostage.

Netanyahu has said, “I will spare no effort on this, and the demand is to bring everyone.” But he has continually vowed to not let up in pursuing the total destruction of Hamas. The IDF has meanwhile announced it has gained ‘operational hold over the key Shejaiya area of Gaza, where some of the most intense battles played out for weeks.

Both sides have continued to publish harrowing scenes of close-quarter urban combat…

Pressure is also mounting due to the immense civilian death toll. The Hamas-run Gaza Health Ministry says over 20,000 Palestinians have died. Israel has responded by saying many thousands of these were Hamas militants; however, Palestinian and international human rights groups say the bulk are women and children.

Tyler Durden
Thu, 12/21/2023 – 12:10

CDC Admits No Data Support Advice To Take Mpox, Influenza, And COVID Shots Together

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CDC Admits No Data Support Advice To Take Mpox, Influenza, And COVID Shots Together

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has acknowledged there is no data supporting the co-administration of vaccines for mpox, COVID-19, and influenza, in contradiction of advice a top agency official gave to the public.

“There are no data on administering JYNNEOS vaccine at the same time as other vaccines,” the CDC said.

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) headquarters in Atlanta, Ga., on Aug. 25, 2023. (Madalina Vasiliu/The Epoch Times)

The acknowledgment was made in response to a Freedom of Information Act request by attorneys for the nonprofit Informed Consent Action Network, which regularly challenges health agencies to back up claims with hard data.

The nonprofit lodged the request because of a video released by the CDC.

In the video, a narrator says, “Can I get my mpox vaccine at the same time as my flu shot and COVID vaccines?

The short answer is yes,” Dr. Demetre Daskalakis, acting director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, said in the video.

Neither the CDC nor Dr. Daskalakis referenced any studies or other data.

The video has been viewed nearly 3 million times.

The CDC official did say that people with heart disease or deemed at risk of heart disease might want to consider receiving a COVID-19 shot at a different time than an mpox vaccine dose “because of a possible risk of heart inflammation associated with some COVID and mpox vaccines.”

Myocarditis, a form of heart inflammation, is caused by all available COVID-19 vaccines in the United States, U.S. authorities have said.

Cardiac events of special interest occurred in a higher proportion of recipients of the JYNNEOS mpox vaccine when compared to placebo recipients in a clinical trial, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) says in the vaccine’s package insert. Six cases among the vaccinated were judged to be caused by the vaccine, though none were myocarditis.

Multiple cases of myocarditis were reported after JYNNEOS vaccination to the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System, which is co-run by the CDC and the FDA, the CDC reported previously. “Current data do not suggest an increased risk for myocarditis after receipt of JYNNEOS, but the possibility of a small risk cannot be excluded,” the CDC said in a paper describing the reports.

Additional cardiac cases have been identified in observational studies.

The CDC recommends virtually all Americans receive an annual COVID-19 vaccine and influenza shot. Men who have sex with other men should receive an mpox vaccine, according to the agency.

Dr. Daskalakis said that the JYNNEOS vaccine “is not associated with” myocarditis but that it was “good to talk to your vaccinator or clinician about what’s right for you.”

The CDC told Aaron Siri, one of the lawyers representing the Informed Consent Action Network (ICAN), that the records supporting Dr. Daskalakis’s statements were the video itself and a page on the CDC’s website that contains the acknowledgment there’s no data on co-administering the JYNNEOS vaccine at the same time as any other vaccines.

The agency claimed that because the vaccine is based on an orthopoxvirus, it “typically may be administered without regard to timing of most other vaccines.”

The CDC response was released on Dec. 18.

“Based on this production, it is clear that neither CDC nor the White House have data to support their safety assertions surrounding coadministration of these three products which is as unfortunate as it is dangerous, particularly since all three of these products have been linked to serious heart inflammation,”  ICAN said in a statement.

Some studies have suggested that people are at higher risk of stroke if they take influenza and COVID-19 vaccines at the same time.

Dr. Peter Marks, a top FDA official, has said that he would space out different vaccines to avoid the risk of experiencing problems.

Pattern

The CDC has a pattern during the pandemic of making unsupported and false statements.

The agency for months, for instance, falsely claimed that there was no safety signal for myocarditis and COVID-19 vaccines.

The CDC in 2022 offered guidance that children as young as 6 months of age could receive COVID-19 vaccines and other shots together, but there were no data to support that guidance, as the vaccine manufacturers themselves admitted.

An FDA spokesperson previously told The Epoch Times that the fact sheets for the COVID-19 shots stated clearly there “is no information on the co-administration of the specific COVID-19 vaccine with other vaccines.”

Some proponents say co-administration of vaccines poses little to no safety risks and can increase uptake of vaccines. Opponents say the technique should not be used without safety data and that public health authorities in general should make sure not to make unsupported claims.

Dr. James Johnston, a family doctor, told The Epoch Times before that he generally advises spacing out shots.

“In vaccine speak, you’re trying to induce immunity without the actual infection,” he said. “You’re creating a fake war to trick the immune system into producing immunity, so space out those wars as much as possible and you’re going to have less untoward side effects in my opinion.”

Tyler Durden
Thu, 12/21/2023 – 11:50

“No Longer In The Bull Camp”

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“No Longer In The Bull Camp”

Authored by Peter Tchir via Academy Securities,

The Party is Over

Since the Fed, I have been “torn” on what to do. This weekend, we worried about “snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. That has followed several weeks of feeling increasingly “reckless” on bullish calls (from Wayne’s World, to Beavis and Butthead).

We started the week mildly bearish yields. That hasn’t done much, and I’m comfortable maintaining or increasing that bearishness.

On equities, maintained a slightly bullish outlook, while favoring laggards, and caveating that by wanting to “buy the dip”.  Now I don’t like that and it is time to change that view.

Negative Bias on Equities

Ignoring FedSpeak, inflation, or any talk of “landings” here are some reasons to be bearish equities.

  • Haven’t liked how equities has been trading past few days. No “oomph” on the moves higher.

  • Did not like how many people came out blaming 0DTE (zero day to expiration options) for yesterday’s sell-off, but no-one seemed to care that on Dec 14th, 15th and 19th, we saw stocks pop from 2 pm on, into the close. That wasn’t 0DTE? Strikes me as convenient that people are looking for a scapegoat for a sell-off which makes me think people are overly committed to being long a market, with too many rate cuts and too much soft landing enthusiasm baked in.

  • Market cap matters. As we end this year and start another, as people question market cap weighted indices. As investors, many of whom have restrictions on how much of their portfolio any one stock can be, all adjust, I expect some selling pressure that will weigh down the Nasdaq 100. It won’t be “panic” selling, but it is very difficult to absorb the potential dollars being sold if investors reduce their allocation to some of the largest companies. So, if the Nasdaq 100 is weak it will be difficult for equities to do well. The Nasdaq 100 was 16,020 on Nov 20th, and “only” got to 16,221 on Dec 11th, not much movement. It performed well post FOMC, but was trading “tired” for some time.

  • Supply. We don’t often talk about “supply” on the equity side of things, but If Wall Street’s hope of a robust IPO calendar is correct, there could be a large amount of new equities that the market has to absorb. Even if the new issues do well, that could weigh on markets. The last time the street was this optimistic about IPO’s was the end of the summer and neither the IPO’s in many cases, nor the market did well with that supply. Something to keep in mind.

Am not a raging bear, but no longer in the bull camp.

Refining the “Laggards”

We’ve been quite generous in what we considered “laggards” – anything from value stocks, to small cap, to Russell 2000, to CRE, to small and mid-size banks, to equal weighted S&P and Nasdaq. Heck we even included “disruptive” tech in the “laggards” camp – as they were not performing up to their typical higher beta performance!

It is time to refine that, and, no pun intended, energy stocks are higher on my list.

Three favorite “lagging” sectors are:

  • Energy. I don’t like oil a lot here, but this area is ripe for consolidation and as much as we get some “mission statements” from things like COP 28, traditional energy is here to stay for the foreseeable future. Even more importantly, I continue to expect the energy companies of today to be the energy companies of the future as they have the resources and skills to navigate the transition to alternative energy sources.

  • Commercial Real Estate. The move to lower yields is helpful. The fact that banking fears from early in 2023 have proven to be overdone is useful. Healthy banks, which most are, have time to work with even troubled creditors. That will spread and delay any pay from commercial real estate for the overall market and help CRE companies. Finally, we can go back to calling 2024 as the year of WFO. Whatever the norm was, it has been changing and will continue to change. Not just do the bosses want the workers in, but many of the workers want to be in too (at least a few days a week).

  • China. I don’t like China longer term and it has been one of the “laggards” that has continue to lag, but I feel forced to bet on some sort of China stimulus package, or “deal” with the U.S. (tariffs, semiconductors and agricultural goods all come to mind) or both!

Some of the other laggards (including foreign stocks more broadly) should outperform the high flyers, but in a down tape (if I’m correct) they may struggle to provide positive returns.

Credit

I think there are better places to express short views – duration and/or equities. But if you are stuck to trading credit, then for the first time in months, I like being slightly bearish on credit.

I like credit better than equities or duration, and I’ve been on a “barbell” approach:

  • High quality credit (let’s call it BBB+ and above, which might be a bit generous, but it is the holiday season) should do well. They, by and large did a great job locking in “lower for longer” and should benefit from what I think will be a trend of overweighting IG/high quality credit versus treasuries.

  • Low rated credit. This is a bet that the dollars allocated to distressed opportunities will have to chase the market. That so much money is being allocated to private credit, that they will compete more aggressively pushing spreads tighter. Finally, if the CLO arbitrage can be effective again (and it seems likely) the wave of new buyers of B- and CCC rated leveraged loans could be large, pushing those markets higher.

CDX should underperform bond spreads as it is more correlated with equities.

I like shorting bonds unhedged (through a vehicle like LQD). We can get cute and try and short credit spreads in the bond market, but for that, I prefer CDX as a tool, and think the all-in yield trade is a better idea right now.

Bottom Line

Maybe the party isn’t over, but I’ve had my fun and think it is time to run (okay, more of a quiet exit than anything too bearish, but I’m out of here!).

Tyler Durden
Thu, 12/21/2023 – 11:35

US Leading Indicators Slump Signals “Short & Shallow Recession” In 1H24

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US Leading Indicators Slump Signals “Short & Shallow Recession” In 1H24

The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) continued its decline in November, dropping 0.5% MoM (in line with expectations), while October’s -0.8% decline was revised down to -1.0%.

  • The biggest positive contributor to the leading index was stock prices at +0.18

  • The biggest negative contributor was average consumer expectations at -0.22

This is the 20th straight MoM decline in the LEI (and 21st month of 23) –  the longest streak of declines since ‘Lehman’ (22 straight months of declines from June 2007 to April 2008)

“The US LEI continued declining in November, with stock prices making virtually the only positive contribution to the index in the month,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board.

“Housing and labor market indicators weakened in November, reflecting warning areas for the economy.

The Leading Credit Index™ and manufacturing new orders were essentially unchanged, pointing to a lack of economic growth momentum in the near term.

Despite the economy’s ongoing resilience – as revealed by the US CEI – and December’s improvement in consumer confidence, the US LEI suggests a downshift of economic activity ahead.

As a result, The Conference Board forecasts a short and shallow recession in the first half of 2024.”

Despite ‘soft landing’ hype, the LEI is showing no signs at all of ‘recovering’, tumbling back below the peak in March 2006…

And on a year-over-year basis, the LEI is down 7.6% (down YoY for 17 straight months) – close to its biggest YoY drop since 2008 (Lehman) outside of the COVID lockdown-enforced collapse…

The annual growth rate of the LEI continues to be negative, but may have reached a bottom…

The trajectory of the US LEI continues to signal a recession over the next 12 months

Is this why The Fed pivoted?

Perhaps not, as the massive easing of financial conditions in the last few months suggests a turn in LEI is imminent…

And hence the ‘soft landing’ mission is accomplished.

Tyler Durden
Thu, 12/21/2023 – 11:25