Last night, Bret Weinstein joined ZeroHedge to moderate a debate on the Iran war featuring Curt Mills, executive director of The American Conservative (magazine founded by Pat Buchanan), and Max Abrahms, Northeastern University professor and terrorism expert.

The discussion went far and wide. From Chabad to whether the war has strengthened Iranian hardliners to the question of Israeli influence over U.S. policy to how this war affects Russia-Ukraine.

Below are some of the most notable exchanges for those who missed it:

Can Trump Wrangle Israel?

Abrahms argued that claims Israel dictates U.S. policy ignore numerous cases where Washington has acted against Israeli preferences. He pointed to the influence of Tom Barrack, Trump’s ambassador to Turkey who is “absolutely reviled by many Israelis,” and policies such as ending sanctions on Syria, inviting the new Syrian president to the White House, and cultivating close ties with Qatar, Pakistan, and Turkey’s Erdoğan. On Gaza, Abrahms said Donald Trump “told Netanyahu, you need to stop prosecuting this war against Hamas,” adding that even critics like Steve Bannon acknowledge Trump has been “telling [Israelis] what they can and cannot do.”

Abrahms also cited last June’s “12-day war” with Iran, saying Israel wanted to continue strikes but Trump intervened. “Israel had planes over Tehran and Trump said, ‘I don’t like this’… Literally in the skies over Tehran, the Israeli planes were sent home.”

Mills rejected the framing. “It’s an archetypal straw man.” Conceding that the administration has taken steps “certain people in Israel… don’t prefer,” Mills argued the larger objective remains unchanged: “The holy grail of the Israeli hardline and neoconservatives… has for a long time been an Iran war… and they just got it done.”

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— ZeroHedge Debates (@zerohedgeDebate) March 6, 2026

Tucker And “The Jews”

Abrahms accused Tucker Carlson of blaming “the Jews” for the war, pointing to Carlson’s claim that Chabad-Lubavitch and Christian Evangelicals were at least partially behind the conflict, a theory outlined in his latest monologue. 

Both Mills and Weinstein rejected that accusation. “That’s a far cry from the Jews,” Weinstein said. “There is all the difference in the world between an organization to which some people belong and many do not and the Jews, which is a large lineage.”

pic.twitter.com/fN0EJzlbkR

— ZeroHedge Debates (@zerohedgeDebate) March 6, 2026

“Crystal Meth Rumsfeld”

Mills argued that the most serious consequence is diplomatic. “I think currently the biggest macro problem actually is that the U.S.’s diplomatic word is getting crushed.” In his view, the war will “harm Trump’s ability to make a deal with the Russians to end the war in Ukraine” and “permanently scar any future president’s maneuverability and diplomacy.”

Mills questioned whether the purported strategic gains are gains at all.

“If you think the Iranians are bad dudes, they just replaced the 90-year-old Khamenei with a 58-year-old Khamenei,” he said, adding that the conflict has “further entrenched their military and economic elite, the IRGC.” At home, it’s also emboldened the worst factions, politically vindicating hardliners like Rubio, Graham, and Cotton who argue “you cannot deal with the United States… that the U.S. only responds to force.” 

Rumsfeld: “I can’t tell you if the use of force in Iraq today would last five days or five weeks or five months, but it certainly isn’t gonna last any longer than that.”

Hegseth: “ It may or may not take four weeks, two weeks, six weeks. It could move up, it could move back.” pic.twitter.com/xSLEbGaniZ

— Home of the Brave (@OfTheBraveUSA) March 2, 2026

Mills also directed criticism at Pete Hegseth, comparing him to “crystal meth Rumsfeld.” The rhetoric about “lethality” and a “reign of terror… over Iranian skies” suggested officials were “reveling in the carnage.” 

Lastly, and possibly the worst blunder of all, the fatwa discouraging nuclear weapons came from Iran’s deceased supreme leader, and “it’s very possible they’re just going to chuck that now and lunge for a crude nuclear device.” 

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— ZeroHedge Debates (@zerohedgeDebate) March 6, 2026

Listen to the full debate below or on our Spotify and YouTube channels.

https://t.co/OMGDXCGANP

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) March 5, 2026

On Friday, day seven of the conflict, commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remained virtually nonexistent, with activity largely limited to Iranian vessels. 

Unable to move crude through the waterway, JPM reminds its clients that producers have effectively shifted storage onto the sea and other facilities. Since the end of February, roughly 76 million barrels (mb) of crude have accumulated—about 46 mb on tankers, 22 mb at refiners, and 8 mb in commercial storage, or about 4.5 days of regional crude exports; most of the inventory build appears to be concentrated in Saudi Arabia.

And yet, despite disruptions around the strait, alternative export routes remain underutilized, with both Saudi Arabia and the UAE operating their bypass pipelines below available spare capacity: according to JPMorgan, roughly 1.6 mbd of spare export capacity is currently going unused.

Saudi Arabia has leaned heavily on the East–West pipeline (discussed yesterday) to bypass Hormuz and move barrels to the Red Sea. Loadings from the port of Yanbu have surged to about 2.5 mbd, up 1.8 mbd month-on-month, with an additional 1.3 mb/d flowing to refineries on the west coast.

This implies that roughly 3.8 mbd of crude is currently moving through the pipeline system, substantially below its 5 mbd nameplate capacity. The pipeline can temporarily increase its run to 6.5–7 mbd, however, logistics at Yanbu and tanker availability in the Red Sea are constraining Saudi Arabia’s ability to fully reroute Gulf exports. In the UAE, exports from the Fujairah terminal remain broadly stable, with no visible increase so far, despite the Abu Dhabi crude pipeline providing a bypass to the Strait of Hormuz with roughly 400 kbd of spare capacity.

Houthis remain a key variable. If Iran were to pursue a broader blockade effect through its regional proxies, Red Sea routes may prove less insulated than assumed.

Meanwhile, in keeping with her analysis yesterday, JPM’s Natasha Kaneva writes today that the market is shifting from pricing pure geopolitical risk to grappling with tangible operational disruption, as refinery shutdowns and export constraints begin to impair crude processing and regional supply flows. Only six days into the conflict, Iraq has already cut supply by about 1.5 mbd and Kuwait appears to be reaching tank tops. The country has reduced refinery runs by nearly 600 kbd, effectively shutting most export-oriented refining capacity and maintaining only what is needed for domestic consumption.

As explained yesterday, markets are now counting down to the next wave of shut‑ins, driven by export bottlenecks and refinery constraints. On current trajectories, disruptions of roughly 1.5 mbd could rise toward 3 mbd by week‑end; by the end of next week, cuts could exceed 4 mbd and potentially approach 6 mbd if refined‑product storage reaches capacity (Figure 8).

Kuwait is likely next to curtail upstream supply following today’s run cuts: based on current flows, JPM estimates about four days until shut‑ins begin, or up to nine days if product storage remains available. Beyond Kuwait, the first signs of supply constraints in the UAE should emerge next week.

Governments across Asia are already moving to protect domestic fuel availability.

• China has instructed refiners to suspend exports of diesel and gasoline.
• Japanese refiners are urging the government to consider a strategic petroleum reserve release.
• Thailand has activated an emergency energy plan and temporarily halted petroleum exports to preserve domestic inventories.
• The International Energy Agency has stated it stands ready to coordinate a global release from strategic stocks if disruptions persist, although for now the agency appears to be waiting to assess whether the closure of Hormuz becomes prolonged. The Trump administration has also indicated it is not yet considering tapping the US SPR to alleviate pressure on oil prices.
• China—which sources about 45% of its oil via the Strait of Hormuz and accounts for roughly 28% of Persian Gulf crude transiting the strait—is also reportedly urging Iran to ensure safe passage for vessels (Figure 7).
• The US has temporarily loosened sanctions against Russian oil shipments to India through April 4. Russian Urals cargoes to India are reportedly priced at a $4-5/bbl premium to Brent on a delivered basis for March-early April arrivals, reversing February’s $13/bbl discount.

The Trump administration is weighing a range of options to head off a potential energy crisis, including waivers of fuel-blending requirements and even potential US Treasury participation in oil futures markets. To reopen the Strait of Hormuz and ensure safe passage for oil tankers in the Gulf, President Trump said the US will provide insurance guarantees and naval escorts.

Still, while assurances from the US administration have helped reduce some of the risk premium in oil markets, they are unlikely on their own to restore tanker flows through the strait. The US pledges to provide insurance backstops and naval escorts will have limited impact unless Iran’s extensive disruption capabilities are first neutralized. That would require degrading Iran’s ability to threaten shipping from both the coastline and nearby islands—ranging from anti-ship missile batteries and drone launch sites to naval mines, fast-attack boats, and the command-and-control networks used by the IRGC to coordinate such operations. While US forces appear to be moving in that direction, the conditions for commercial confidence have not yet been fully established. Until they are, the oil market faces a clear asymmetry in price outcomes: prices may decline by $10 on reassuring headlines, but they could rise by $30 once Gulf production shut-ins begin to materialize and ripple through the market.

More in the full JPMorgan note available to pro subs.

Summary:

• Trump sticking to surrender demand, freshly telling Axios, but tweaking the messaging a bit compared to earlier: “Unconditional surrender could be that [the Iranians] announce it. But it could also be when they can’t fight any longer because they don’t have anyone or anything to fight with.” 

• Trump’s expected timeline on Operation Epic Fury: WH Press Secretary Leavitt: “Four to six weeks.” And Leavitt further tweaks Trump’s message… ops to continue till “Iran can no longer pose a threat to the U.S. and our troops in the Middle East.”

• Nation-building? More from Trump “…will work tirelessly to bring Iran back from the brink of destruction, making it economically bigger, better, and stronger than ever before.”

• War enters day seven as Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian says several countries have begun mediation efforts to end the conflict with the US and Israel, while stressing negotiations must confront those who “ignited this conflict.”

• Adm. Brad Cooper, CENTCOM Commander: “The Iranian terrorist regime has attacked 12 different countries and continues to deliberately target civilians throughout the Middle East. Last night, Iranian forces fired seven attack drones at civilians, residential neighborhoods in Bahrain. This… will not go unanswered…

• Wapo highlights Ft. Bragg (Ft Liberty) canceled exercises, troops on standby: The U.S. Army abruptly canceled a major training exercise for the 82nd Airborne Division’s headquarters, fueling speculation that the rapid-response unit could deploy to the Middle East as the U.S. conflict with Iran expands.

• Iran says EU ‘legitimate’ target if it joins war: France24

• Heavy fighting continues, with Tehran experiencing its most intense bombardment yet, including strikes near key government districts; Israel says the attacks mark a “new phase” of the war.

• Trump rejects negotiations amid Tehran reports that outside countries offered mediation, declaring there will be “no deal except unconditional surrender,” and suggesting Iran could later select a new leader with US approval.

• Global fallout intensifies: Brent oil futures surges to around $90, Gulf energy flows face disruption, Russia says demand for its energy is rising, and reports indicate Moscow may be providing Iran intelligence on US military assets in the region.

• Qatar News Agency, Citing Minister of State for Energy Affairs, says The ongoing war will force Gulf states to halt energy production and exports within days.

• Israeli official admits Hezbollah joined conflict with unexpected intensity. Israeli military: Five IDF soldiers seriously wounded by Hezbollah rocket as Air Force pounds Beirut

• President Trump said sending ground troops into Iran would be a “waste of time.“

• China assistance in question via CNN: The US also has intelligence suggesting that China may be preparing to provide Iran with financial assistance, spare parts and missile components, three people familiar with the matter said, though Beijing has stayed out of the war up until now – though relies heavily on Iranian oil and has reportedly been pressuring Tehran ⁠to allow safe passage for vessels through the Strait of Hormuz.

• Iranian ballistic missiles on Israel show signs of slowing, but severe damage in Tel Aviv and elsewhere has been documented, and Israeli civilian/military casualties. Last days have seen no Pentagon updates on US casualties which stands at 6 troops killed and many ‘seriously’ wounded.

* * *

The war has entered its seventh day, but there could be a glimmer of hope for some kind of diplomatic-led offramp as Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian indicated Friday that several countries have begun mediation efforts to end the war with the United States and Israel, but insists negotiations must confront those who started the conflict. “Some countries have begun mediation efforts. Let’s be clear: we are committed to lasting peace in the region, yet we have no hesitation in defending our nation’s dignity and sovereignty,” Pezeshkian wrote on X.

“Mediation should address those who underestimated the Iranian people and ignited this conflict,” he added. The mood over at the White House seems one of trying to get the unanticipated after-effects and especially the ongoing fierce Iranian retaliation on Gulf targets under control. Tehran overnight and into Friday saw the heaviest bombardment yet of the Iranian capital. Meanwhile, Brent oil futures have surged to $90 a barrel on the Iran war.

Iran hit an American Patriot missile site in the UAE. No injuries reported. Photos provided by a source. pic.twitter.com/BXl6ruF84b

— Ryan Grim (@ryangrim) March 6, 2026

Importantly, President Trump Friday morning has made clear in a Truth Social post that there will be “no deal” except under “unconditional surrender”. He also asserted that after this, Iran can “select a great, acceptable leader” with his help and approval. “There will be no deal with Iran except UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER! After that, and the selection of a GREAT & ACCEPTABLE Leader(s), we, and many of our wonderful and very brave allies and partners,” he stated. And following this CNN cited both Trump and Hegseth to say they rate the war at “12 or 15 out of 10.” The president also sees gasoline prices going down “very quickly” – per CNN.

This smashed WTI up to $88 – the highest since Oct 2023…

Massive explosions rocked residential neighborhoods and areas near Tehran University, as US and Israeli strikes targeted sites linked to Iran’s military and political leadership, with Al Jazeera’s correspondent reporting that the intensity of the bombardment exceeded anything seen earlier in the war. “I can say that compared to previous days, we saw heavier bombardment overnight, at least in the capital,” the report said. CNN also now belatedly has a war correspondent on the ground in Iran.

Notably, some of the latest strikes hit areas near Pasteur Street, a heavily secured district that houses key government institutions and where Iran’s supreme leader and several family members were killed in the opening hours of the conflict. Israel is vowing attacks marked a “new phase” of the war.

According to the Israeli military, about 50 fighter jets struck an “underground bunker” in Tehran that had been constructed for the late supreme leader, which allegedly extended beneath entire streets in central Tehran and contained meeting facilities used by senior officials even after the leader’s death.

Iranian FM and IRGC defiant…

Plan A for a clean rapid military victory failed, Mr. President. Your Plan B will be even bigger failure.

The truth: Chance for unique deal burned after the ‘America Last’ cabal obscured “significant progress” we made in negotiations.

‘Israel First’ always means ‘America Last’

— Seyed Abbas Araghchi (@araghchi) March 5, 2026

Israeli officials further claim the campaign is beginning to expose fractures inside Iran’s military chain of command; however, some reports have said various units could be acting autonomously under emergency orders to unleash full retaliation.

The United States has also made clear it is escalating its operations, with B-2 bombers having dropped dozens of bunker-busting “penetrator” bombs on deeply buried ballistic-missile launch sites across Iran. War Secretary Pete Hegseth has warned that the air campaign is “about to surge dramatically” – with President Trump also not showing signs of backing down, describing that the military operation is advancing faster than expected.

Iran is being demolished “ahead of schedule and at levels people have never seen before,” Trump asserted, claiming the country now has “no air force, no air defense” and that its air power is “gone.”

Israel is touting annihilation of all of “Iran’s top leadership” but at this point in the war leadership is likely more dispersed than what Israeli and Western officials are saying:

🚨 Breaking: This morning 50 Israeli planes dropped 100 bombs on an underground bunker in the leadership compound of Tehran, reportedly eliminating all the top remaining leadership of the regimepic.twitter.com/b57Vv1KQuw

— Dr. Eli David (@DrEliDavid) March 6, 2026

Since last Saturday at least 1,332 Iranians have been killed, but the death toll could be much higher amid ongoing rescue efforts of people under the rubble in heavily hit areas. Iranian media has reported that missiles struck two schools in the town of Parand southwest of Tehran, in the latest.

But Iran does continue to retaliate across the region. In Israel, by all appearances the number of inbound ballistic missiles has slowed significantly compared with the opening days of the war. Israeli officials say roughly 90 missiles were fired on the first day, about 60 the following day, and around 20 per day since Monday. In total, Iranian media claim roughly 500 ballistic missiles have been launched during the conflict – possibly most of them intercepted, but a significant amount making impact and causing severe damage.

NEW: US-Israeli jets struck Ilam hard. pic.twitter.com/aHQqPaRi3f

— Levent Kemal (@leventkemaI) March 6, 2026

Late Thursday night Tel Aviv came under combined missile and drone attacks, though medics reported no injuries following the latest barrage in southern Israel. Still, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) says its “new-generation missiles struck American bases in Gulf countries” and Israeli targets including “Ben Gurion Airport, Haifa and Tel Aviv.”

Iranian forces also claim to have attacked a “US-owned” oil tanker off the coast of Kuwait, leaving the vessel on fire, according to Iranian state radio. Iranian state television reported that large numbers of drones launched by the army targeted American military bases in Kuwait.

“These attacks will continue in the coming hours,” the military said. Iranian drones have targeted countries across the Gulf from the United Arab Emirates to Qatar and Bahrain. Azerbaijani officials said Iranian drones crossed their border and injured four people in the Nakhchivan exclave, prompting Baku to withdraw diplomatic staff from Iran for safety.

⚡️ Iranian drones target two hotels and a residential building in Bahrain’s capital, Manama. pic.twitter.com/MASF5PQJQd

— War Monitor (@WarMonitors) March 5, 2026

In Lebanon, Israeli airstrikes pounded towns in the south and east of the country as well as Beirut’s southern suburbs after the Israeli military issued mass evacuation orders for large sections of the capital. The United Nations says nearly 100,000 people have been displaced in Lebanon and thousands of Syrian refugees have fled back across the border.

The conflict is further drawing in outside powers, with the most significant development being The Washington Post reporting that Russia has been providing Iran with intelligence on the locations of US military assets in the Middle East, including warships and aircraft. US officials described the effort as “a pretty comprehensive effort” by Moscow, though the accuracy of the intelligence remains unclear.

This is also when the ‘fog of war’ and propaganda is very heavy – and so such allegations especially from an ultra-heart-of-the-establishment D.C. beltway publication should be treated with caution and skepticism. However, it would make perfect sense that Russia is helping its Mideast ally, given that Russia and Iran signed a strategic partnership agreement earlier this year expanding military and defense cooperation. Despite that, Hegseth said earlier in the week that Russia is “not really a factor” in the conflict.

So you’re telling me that the US supplying Ukraine with intelligence, weapons and missiles to hit Russia has consequences? https://t.co/hrkwtyGhQK

— Mark Ames (@MarkAmesExiled) March 6, 2026

Meanwhile in the ultimate irony of ironies, Financial Times is reporting US officials are discussing the purchase of Ukrainian-made drone interceptors to counter Iranian drones, which some analysts say have proven harder to stop than expected. Patriot missile interceptors used by US allies cost more than $4 million each, while the Ukrainian systems are significantly cheaper and designed to defeat the same Shahed-type drones used by Russia.

Back in Iran, ‘Pro-regime’ sentiment making itself known, with across the country large crowds gathering for the first Friday prayers since the war began. Tens of thousands of worshippers carrying portraits of the slain supreme leader chanted anti-US and anti-Israel slogans despite the ongoing bombardment. There have also been “death to the Shah” type chants heard, amid reports that Trump wants to have a hand in directly choosing a puppet leader for Iranians.

First Friday prayers since massive attacks started:

Friday prayers under Trump missiles in the city of Tabriz.

Iranians are not intimidated. pic.twitter.com/WXcwlz1Ixi

— Seyed Mohammad Marandi (@s_m_marandi) March 6, 2026

Meanwhile the conflict continues disrupting global energy flows. But as we’ve been highlighting, that means: “We are seeing a significant increase in demand for Russian energy resources in connection with the war in Iran,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said. Russia remains “a reliable supplier of oil and gas,” he added.

Western MSM has tended not to show the large pro-government demonstrations which had been on and off since January, in tandem with the anti-Tehran protests and clashes:

⚡️⭕️ Massive continuous demonstrations in various Iranian cities in support of the armed forces demanding revenge, for the 6th day in a row

It’s an uprising pic.twitter.com/BxuvKwxi4d

— Middle East Observer (@ME_Observer_) March 6, 2026

International Energy Agency director Fatih Birol says global markets still have ample supply. “We have no oil shortage … there is a huge surplus,” he said. But Qatar’s energy minister Saad al-Kaabi offered a far more pessimistic outlook, warning it could take “weeks to months” for energy exports to normalize even if the war stopped immediately.

“Everybody’s energy price is going to go higher,” he said. “There will be shortages of some products and there will be a chain reaction of factories that cannot supply.”

On the airspace closure and travel front, the widening war is also triggering evacuations and security concerns far beyond the battlefield, with thousands of travelers still stranded across the region as airlines cancel flights, though Emirates says it transported roughly 30,000 passengers out of Dubai in a single day and expects to restore its full flight network soon. Limited commercial flights have resumed from Israel.

Footage circulating online shows people chanting ‘death to Pahlavi’ in the Khuzestan province in southwest Iran

Protesters were referring to Reza Pahlavi, the son of the last shah living in exile in the US, who has spearheaded a movement advocating for the monarchy’s restoration pic.twitter.com/i4OxP90VtK

— Middle East Eye (@MiddleEastEye) March 5, 2026

In Britain, counterterrorism police arrested four men on allegedly suspicion of spying on the Jewish community for Iran. The Metropolitan Police said the suspects – one Iranian national and three dual British-Iranian citizens – were detained early Friday morning in Barnet and Watford. Meanwhile, international pressure continues mounting over civilian casualties – while at the Pentagon there has not been any new casualty update since six American troops were confirmed killed in the opening days of Operation Epic Fury.

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Nearly 20,000 U.S. citizens have returned safely from the Middle East since Feb. 28, when the Iran conflict broke out, Dylan Johnson, assistant secretary at the Bureau of Global Public Affairs, said in a March 5 statement.

“These figures do not include the many Americans who have safely relocated to other countries or those who have departed the Middle East but are still in transit back to the United States,” Johnson said. “At the direction of Secretary [Marco] Rubio, Department of State charter flight and ground transportation operations are underway and will continue to ramp up with additional flights and ground transports taking place today.”

“Through the State Department’s 24/7 Task Force, we have assisted over 10,000 Americans abroad, including offering security guidance and travel assistance. The State Department will continue to actively assist any American citizen abroad, who wishes to depart the Middle East, to do so.”

Johnson highlighted that the department has set up an online Crisis Intake form for Americans residing in Kuwait, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Israel.

U.S. citizens completing the form will receive information about upcoming ground transportation and charter aviation options. Americans in the Middle East can contact the State Department at +1-202-501-4444 for assistance.

In a March 5 post on X, the State Department’s Bureau of Consular Affairs said that in the UAE, limited commercial flights are currently operating out of international airports in the country.

“Passengers are advised not to travel to the airport unless they hold a confirmed ticket and have been explicitly advised by their airline to do so. There are overland routes to Oman and Saudi Arabia where commercial options to depart the region are operating, but there are reports of congestion,” the bureau said.

In Qatar, the airspace and maritime routes remain closed, but the Salwa land border crossing into Saudi Arabia is currently open, the bureau said.

In Israel, the West Bank, and Gaza, the Ben Gurion Airport was scheduled to reopen on March 5 for limited inbound flights, according to a post on X by the agency.

However, “we have no information yet on when outbound flights may become available,” it said. “There are overland routes to Taba, Egypt, where commercial options to depart the region are operating. Americans should strongly consider departing on one of these overland routes if they believe it is safe to do so.”

Americans in Oman should consider leaving as some flights are departing from the nation’s international airports, the bureau said.

According to data from aviation analytics company Cirium, almost 25,000 of the approximately 44,000 flights scheduled to fly in and out of the Middle East between Saturday and Thursday have been canceled.

Firepower to ‘Surge Dramatically’

The Iran conflict, now in its sixth day on Thursday, began after U.S. and Israeli forces launched coordinated strikes against Tehran on Feb. 28.

Adm. Brad Cooper, head of U.S. Central Command, said Thursday that strikes on the Iranian Navy have “intensified.”

U.S. forces have, to date, sunk more than 30 of Iran’s ships, including “an Iranian drone carrier ship roughly the size of a World War II aircraft carrier,” Cooper said.

Secretary of War Pete Hegseth said Thursday that firepower over Iran was about to “surge dramatically.”

“When we say more to come, it’s more fighter squadrons, it’s more capabilities, it’s more defensive capabilities,” Hegseth said. “And it’s more bomber pulses more frequently.”

In an update on the war, Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir, the Israeli army’s chief of the General Staff, said 60 percent of Iran’s missile launchers have been taken out, with 40 percent remaining intact. In addition, 80 percent of Tehran’s air defenses have also been neutralized.

“The threat has not yet been removed. Every missile is lethal and poses a danger,” Zamir said. “We are now moving to the next phase of the operation. In this phase, we will further dismantle the regime and its military capabilities. We have additional surprises ahead that I do not intend to disclose.”

On Thursday, a war powers resolution against Operation Epic Fury failed to pass the House by a vote of 212-219. The resolution aimed to impose guardrails on the United States’ ongoing military operations in Iran. On March 4, the measure failed to pass in the Senate.

After the House vote, Rep. Mike Johnson (R-La.), speaker of the House, said the United States was conducting a “limited operation” in Iran that is “limited in scope and duration.”

“We are not at war. We have no intention of being at war,” Johnson said, adding that the U.S. mission against Iran was “nearly accomplished.”

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

ASP Isotopes announced Thursday that its Quantum Leap Energy (QLE) subsidiary has entered “a non-binding Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with a large publicly traded U.S. energy company that operates nuclear power stations”.

Under the agreement, the utility will evaluate options to provide support and potential financing for QLE’s planned U.S. facilities focused on High Assay Low Enriched Uranium (HALEU), LEU+, uranium conversion and deconversion services. Discussions could also lead to long-term enriched uranium supply contracts, according to the press release. QLE’s CEO described the move as an important validation of the need for reliable domestic fuel sources ahead of the 2028 Russian uranium import ban.

We’ve been tracking ASPI’s growth closely. We spotlighted them as “The Next Nuclear Story Stock” last year after their Silicon-28 supply deal and U.S. radiopharmacy acquisition. November brought news of the QLE private placement backed by investors linked to Donald Trump Jr. and Eric Trump. December even covered the regulatory green light for the Renergen acquisition in South Africa. We’ve also detailed the looming HALEU crunch and the 2028 ban in recent fuel-chain reports.

ASP Isotopes Jumps After Investment By Trump’s Boys https://t.co/RJkYtG3MD1

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) November 7, 2025

QLE’s Texas footprint keeps expanding. The company established their global headquarters in Austin, advanced its joint-venture plans with Fermi America (co-founded by former Energy Secretary Rick Perry) for a HALEU research and production site at the 11 GW HyperGrid campus near Pantex, and continues working with TerraPower and South Africa’s NESCA. With a former Constellation Energy executive on the board (Ralph Hunter) and Vistra already scaling its Texas nuclear fleet for AI power demand, it’s worth speculating that this partnership is in coordination with CEG or VST. 

We also just covered TerraPower receiving the first NRC construction permit for a commercial-scale advanced reactor in nearly a decade. The company also signed a major agreement with Meta in January for up to eight Natrium units. These milestones directly relate to QLE’s position through their 2025 agreements, under which TerraPower is providing financing for QLE’s planned HALEU enrichment facility in South Africa and committing to long-term offtake.

Despite the growing list of partnerships, QLE has yet to enrich any uranium or break ground on any facilities for research or commercial development in the US. The pieces are falling into place for a domestic nuclear fuel renaissance, but the sector still needs actual production, not just paper commitments.

Boeing shares moved higher in late-afternoon trading in New York after Bloomberg News reported that the planemaker may be nearing one of the largest sales in its history, potentially to be unveiled during President Trump’s trip to China later this month.

People familiar with the potential Boeing-China jet deal said it could be announced during President Trump’s trip to Beijing from March 31 to April 2. They said the deal includes a 500-plane order for 737 Max jets, with additional talks covering approximately 100 widebody aircraft, including 787 Dreamliners and 777Xs.

Boeing aircraft have long been at the center of US-China trade talks, as well as tit-for-tat trade disputes. If the deal materializes, it would mark one of Boeing’s biggest sales ever and end years of a Chinese jet sales drought.

Bloomberg offered a caveat:

There’s a chance that the talks could reach an impasse and a deal not be completed, they cautioned. The nation’s leaders were closing in on a similar agreement last year and in 2023. The two sides are still negotiating the specifics of the announcement, with the US pushing for a firm commitment and not just a headline-grabbing dollar value, said one of the people.

Shares of Boeing jumped about 2% on the news.

Bloomberg noted that Boeing declined to comment, while China’s Ministry of Commerce did not respond to a request for comment. We caution that the report relies on unnamed sources.

Our view is that a headline like this appears highly unusual (the scale of the order suggest more than simply a gesture of goodwill), particularly as Trump has moved to squeeze Beijing’s access to cheap crude from Venezuela and Iran.

Even with the risk of an energy shock, Beijing now appears to be on the verge of buying a record number of U.S. commercial jets, which suggests Trump may have gained some leverage (perhaps through his two-month crusade with America’s military) ahead of the planned Trump-Xi meeting later this month.

Update (1126ET):

Kuwait began cutting crude oil output after storage tank farms began filling up, as crude could no longer be loaded onto very large crude carriers and transported through the Strait of Hormuz, according to The Wall Street Journal.

Sources say the OPEC founding member is now weighing broader reductions in crude production and refining, potentially limiting operations to only domestic demand, with a decision expected within days.

UBS analyst Nana Antiedu noted that Brent crude futures climbed to $91/bbl after WSJ released the report.

WSJ noted:

Data provider Kpler said it has seen indications that Kuwait has started to cut production, adding that the country would have to cut more output in the coming days, as storage would otherwise fill up in around 12 days.

Shutting in an oil well risks long-term damage to reservoir pressure and incurs high restart costs, usually making it a measure of last resort. Restarting production can take days or even weeks depending on the reservoir.

“Storage is limited in the Middle East, and the only fix to avoid tanks running over is to curb production,” UBS commodity analyst Giovanni Staunovo said. “The longer the strait stays closed, the more barrels of crude and refined products will be missing, leading to higher prices.”

Earlier in the day, Qatar’s energy minister, Saad al-Kaabi, told the FT that “Everybody who has not called for force majeure we expect will do so in the next few days if this continues. All exporters in the Gulf region will have to call a force majeure.”

Also, Iraq had already slashed oil production by half earlier this week, while Qatar shut gas liquefaction plants.

Brent crude futures surged above $91/bbl on Friday morning in New York.

Even if a resolution emerges in the near term, restarting crude fields, refineries, and export hubs would likely take at least a month, and possibly longer. This suggests that the risk of an energy shock is fast approaching.

*   *  * 

Brent crude futures are on track for their biggest weekly gain since the early days of Covid, with the move now exceeding the 20% weekly spike at the start of the Russia-Ukraine war, as the U.S.-Israeli air campaign against Iran, Operation Epic Fury, has tipped the Gulf into an energy crisis, freezing commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and pushing some regional oil and gas production offline.

On Friday, Qatar’s energy minister, Saad al-Kaabi, told the Financial Times that the Gulf conflict could trigger a global economic shock, warning that continued fighting would force all Gulf energy exporters to halt output and could send Brent crude prices north of $150 a barrel.

Strait of Hormuz the last 24 hours.

Unreal.

Source: @MarineTraffic pic.twitter.com/krcT5qp4ik

— HFI Research (@HFI_Research) March 5, 2026

“Everybody who has not called for force majeure we expect will do so in the next few days if this continues. All exporters in the Gulf region will have to call force majeure,” Kaabi explained. “If they don’t, they are at some point going to pay the liability for that legally, and that’s their choice.”

Qatar is the world’s second-largest producer of LNG and was forced to declare force majeure earlier this week after IRGC drone strikes on its Ras Laffan plant.

“This will bring down the economies of the world,” he warned. “If this war continues for a few weeks, GDP growth around the world will be impacted. Everybody’s energy price is going to go higher. There will be shortages of some products and there will be a chain reaction of factories that cannot supply.”

Kaabi continued, “We don’t yet know the extent of the damage, as it is currently still being assessed. It is not yet clear how long repairs will take.”

On Tuesday, we provided readers with the number of days of disruption needed in the Gulf area (the Strait of Hormuz chokepoint) to trigger actual panic, that is 25. Read the full report here.

And for Zerohedge Premium and Pro subs. JPMorgan crunched the math on Hormuz and revealed just how many days until chaos (report here). 

The math behind the forced shut ins https://t.co/SJ88Pky7D3

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) March 6, 2026

Then, on Thursday, energy economist Anas Alhajji spoke with top UBS analysts on a webinar that also provided a timeline for energy market chaos and the risks of an impending economic shock.

“Our main scenario is that if this lasts four weeks, things will be completely out of control. And when I say out of control, I mean that even if China starts releasing oil from its inventories, the problem is that my guess is China would also restrict exports, which means that oil would remain in China. We were counting on that oil being in the market, and now it is not going to be in the market,” Alhajji said.

Alhajji outlined critical questions:

• Is the war about Iran’s nuclear program, or is something much larger at play, with Iran serving more as a trigger or for broader strategic objectives?

• The distinction matters significantly because the medium- and long-term outcomes would look very different.

• Should attention be focused narrowly on Iran’s nuclear program and regime change, or should the situation be analyzed within the much wider context of China, trade wars & tariffs, AI competition, Panama Canal, Red Sea, Venezuela, Syria, & Greenland?

• Are we observing “conflicts” within a larger “CONFLICT,” where some groups are opportunistically exploiting the situation to pursue their own “local” objectives?

As well as the problem:

• The problem now is attacks that spark panic buying while Saudi Arabia cannot react. Thus, U.S. SPR release is limited, and China might ban exports. Prices would go above $100 easily, but fear would contain demand growth, limiting the increase in oil prices. The impact on LNG and NGLs is higher than on oil.

• We cannot go back quickly to normal. It will take at least 2 months if the war stops tomorrow. (logistics and technical issues)

• Lack of international cooperation (Every country for itself)

In energy markets, Brent crude futures are up 21%, exceeding the 20% spike at the start of the Ukraine-Russia war, and are on track for their largest weekly gain since the first week of May 2020.

Back to 2024 highs. 

There are no signs, at the moment, that the conflict is nearing an end. In fact, there are reports that IRGC forces just hit a US-owned oil tanker near Kuwait.

Goldman analysts earlier this week warned about $100/bbl crude oil prices. Disruptions across the Gulf have already sent diesel futures up 40% this week, while central banks are warning of a possible inflation spike.

Asia’s exposure to Gulf oil is concerning, but China’s exposure is even more alarming. This suggests that if the conflict persists, Beijing could be facing an incoming shock that risks morphing into a financial crisis

In our nonfarm payrolls preview, we quoted JPMorgan’s Market Intel desk which said that “for this print, the stronger the better”, which by implication means that a poor number would be bad. By that logic, the actual number couldn’t be any worse, because moments ago the BLS reported that in February, the US lost 92,000 jobs, a huge drop from the downward revised (of course) 126K in January, and the second worst print since 2020 (only October’s shock -140K was worse), and this time, the massive drop can’t be dismissed as a one-time drop in government payrolls. The number of private payrolls dropped by 86K, also a huge miss to estimates of a 60K increase.

The February payrolls print was a six-sigma miss to the 55K median estimate, and came in 83K below the lowest estimate!

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for December was revised down by 65,000, from +48,000 to -17,000, and the change for January was revised down by 4,000, from +130,000 to +126,000. With these revisions, employment in December and January combined is 69,000 lower than previously reported. 

On a nonseasonally adjusted basis, 563k jobs were added in February, lower than the BBG estimate of 800k. An important driver of the jobs miss was the revised birth-and-death model, which contributed only 90k to February’s nonseasonally adjusted estimate. That compares with 136k last February and 151k in February 2024.

One potential mitigating factor: the number of people who were unable to work due to weather surged to 228K in February, well above last year’s level 167K, due to the powerful winter storms hitting the US.

Looking under the surface does not reveal as silver lining: part-time workers dropped by 249K while full-time workers slid by 100K.

Perhaps the only silver lining was that native-born workers jumped by 877K (which was only a modest reversal of the 2.5 million drop last month), while foreign born workers dropped by 394K.

The unemployment rate rose from 4.3% to 4.44% vs estimates of an unchanged print, as the number of unemployed workers rose by 203K from 7.368MM to 7.571MM, while the civilian labor force was virtually unchanged (from 170.564K to 170.483K). Notably, the increase in unemployment was driven by an increase in the U-2 rate – those who lost their jobs – which went from 2.05% in January to 2.12% in February.

Both the labor force participation rate, at 62.0% (below the estimate of 62.5%), and the employment-population ratio, at 59.3%, changed little in February. These measures showed little change over the year, after accounting for the annual adjustments to the population controls. 

Turning to wages, average hourly earnings rose 0.4% MoM, same as January and above estimates of a 0.3% imcrease. This translated into a 3.8% YoY increase, up from 3.7% and the consensus of an unchanged print.

Some more details from the report

• The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) changed little at 1.9 million in February but is up from 1.5 million a year earlier. The long-term unemployed accounted for 25.3 percent of all unemployed people in February. 
• The number of people employed part time for economic reasons decreased by 477,000 to 4.4 million in February. These individuals would have preferred full-time employment but were working part time because their hours had been reduced or they were unable to find full-time jobs. 
• The number of people not in the labor force who currently want a job changed little in February at 6.0 million. These individuals were not counted as unemployed because they were not actively looking for work during the 4 weeks preceding the survey or were unavailable to take a job. 
• Among those not in the labor force who wanted a job, the number of people marginally attached to the labor force changed little at 1.6 million in February. These individuals wanted and were available for work and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months but had not looked for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. The number of discouraged workers, a subset of the marginally attached who believed that no jobs were available for them, decreased by 109,000 in February to 366,000. 

Turning to the establishment survey, which unveiled the shocking February drop, the BLS reported a broad-based decline, driven by striking employment workers:

• Employment in health care decreased in February, reflecting strike activity. Employment in information and federal government continued to trend down. Payroll employment changed little on net in 2025. 
• Health care employment declined by 28,000 in February, following a large increase in January (+77,000). Offices of physicians lost 37,000 jobs in February, primarily due to strike activity. Hospitals added 12,000 jobs. Over the prior 12 months, health care had added an average of 36,000 jobs per month. 
• Employment in information continued to trend down in February (-11,000). The industry had lost an average of 5,000 jobs per month over the prior 12 months.
• In February, federal government employment continued to decline (-10,000). Since reaching a peak in October 2024, federal government employment is down by 330,000, or 11.0 percent.
• Employment in social assistance continued its upward trend in February (+9,000), driven by individual and family services (+12,000).
• Transportation and warehousing employment changed little in February (-11,000). A job loss in couriers and messengers (-17,000) was partially offset by a gain in air transportation (+5,000). Employment in transportation and warehousing has declined by 157,000, or 2.4 percent, since reaching a peak in February 2025.
• Employment showed little change over the month in other major industries, including mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction; construction; manufacturing; wholesale trade; retail trade; financial activities; professional and business services; leisure and hospitality; and other services.

Looking at the sectoral composition of hiring, it’s clear that strikes and weather were a drag:

• The net change in health-care payrolls declined steeply, to -28k in February from 77k in January. A strike by 31k employees at Kaiser Permanente contributed to the drop.
• Construction (-11k vs. 48k prior), retail trade (2k vs. 11k prior), and leisure and hospitality (-27k vs -12k prior) all contributed to the decline. Hiring in these sectors tends to be sensitive to weather conditions, suggesting the storms in early February – and perhaps payback from temperate weather in the first half of January – played a role in the weak February print.

In the household survey, the BLS updated the working age population calculations to reflect the latest US Census population count for 2025. The new controls led to a big change in the January estimate of various employment metrics. They

• Lowered the working-age population by 231k;
• Reduced the labor force by 1,417k;
• Cut the employment level by around 1,432k;
• Lowered the labor-force participation rate by 0.46 percentage point and the employment-to-population ratio by 0.47 ppt.
• Altogether, that lifted the unemployment rate by 4 bps.

Separately, the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ updated “birth-and-death” model of business formations — which now incorporates current-month information — exaggerated the weaknesses.

Excluding the temporary effects, Bloomberg’s economists think payrolls probably are growing at a pace of around 20k per month. That’s slightly below the breakeven pace, explaining the rise in the unemployment rate for the month.

While we will have more to say about this report, the kneejerk reaction is, well, bad: this was about as ugly as it could be, and coming in a time when input costs are soaring due to the Iran war, it screams AI-driven stagflation. Indeed, Bloomberg’s Anna Wong hesitates to dismiss the weakness as entirely temporary, a study by Bloomberg Economics and Bloomberg Intelligence of corporate earnings-call transcripts flags that companies across a broad set of industries intend to keep hiring flat this year.

Still, Wong writes that We see the labor market as cooling rather than deteriorating sharply – but the softness in hiring reinforces the case for Fed rate cuts later this year.

The United Arab Emirates is pissed after Iran targeted Dubai and other US allies with over 1,000 drones and missiles in retaliation for US-Israeli attacks over the last week – and is now weighing freezing billions of dollars in Iranian assets held in the Gulf state, according to the WSJ, citing people familiar with the discussions. If that happens, it could sever one of Tehran’s most vital economic lifelines. 

For years, the United Arab Emirates has functioned as a financial hub for Iran, including wealthy individuals, businesses, and accounts associated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). While some of that (if not most) is legitimate business, the UAE has also been used to launder money through ‘shadow banking’ and other schemes – something the UAE has worked with the west (probably not that hard) to combat.

The UAE has been a ‘Switzerland’ of sorts – welcoming capital from around the world with little judgement, including happily doing business with Russian commodities traders and bankers following the invasion of Ukraine, despite US officials insisting that they ramp up scrutiny on money flows and crack down on sanctions evasion. In 2022, Paris-0based Financial Action Task Force placed the UAE on its “gray list” for failing to combat money laundering and terrorism financing.

In 2024, $9 billion linked to clandestine Iranian financial activity passed through UAE-based firms, largely connected to oil sales by Iran-linked companies in Dubai, according to the Treasury Department. 

Iranian Funds for Hezbollah Are Flowing Through Dubai (WSJ)

Treasury Sanctions Iranian Network Laundering Billions for Regime Through Shadow Banking Scheme (US Treasury)

After the UAE closed a handful of accounts held by Russian oligarchs and oil traders at the behest of US officials, the FATF removed them from their list for strengthening their anti-money-laundering policies. But they still hold billions in Iranian assets, and they’re not to happy about being targeted in retaliation strikes – which have caused damage at a Dubai airport, residential and tourist areas around the Burj Al Arab hotel, and the Palm Jumeirah man-made island. 

Tehran has been selling oil on the international market to fund the IRGC as well as other parts of their defense and security complex, through this shadow banking scheme, according to Treasury.

As such, any move to limit Iranian financial activities – which would likely not apply to all accounts held by Iranian companies and nationals (hundreds of thousands of whom live in the UAE) – “would be very significant, because the U.A.E. is the most important conduit for Iran’s engagement with the global economy,” said Esfandyar Batmanghelidj, chief executive of Iran-focused think tank Bourse & Bazaar, in a statement to the Journal. 

U.A.E. authorities are weighing several measures to dismantle illicit Iranian operations, officials familiar with the matter said. They range from freezing the assets of U.A.E.-based shadow companies used to mask trade to a sweeping financial crackdown on local currency exchanges which are used to move money outside of formal banking channels.

If the U.A.E. decides to move on Iran’s shadow-financing empire, a prime target would be accounts affiliated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the powerful group responsible for defending and perpetuating the regime, the officials familiar with the discussions said.

That said, the UAE is also carefully weighing the risks of an asset freeze – as they’re concerned that it may trigger prolonged retaliation by Iran against the Emirati territory and their critical energy infrastructure. It would also damage their ability to attract and retain capital from other sensitive countries such as Russia. 

“This is the most important nonmilitary lever the U.A.E. have to play against the Iranians,” said Andreas Krieg, a senior lecturer at the School of Security Studies at King’s College London, adding that a more targeted approach is the most likely course. 

Via Remix News,

The Eritrean migrant accused of dismembering his partner and the mother of his daughter was once held up as a “model migrant” 10 years ago in a variety of German newspapers. These papers reported that he was an example of how “integration” could work.

Today, 41-year-old Asmerom G. is accused of butchering his own wife. In fact, authorities have still not found her head.

German media were still singing his praises in 2016. The man from Eritrea had landed a job as an electrical assistant at a firm in Rheinbach, in North Rhine-Westphalia, and gave interviews about leaving his homeland three years earlier to escape political persecution.

He wanted German citizenship, he said. His boss at the time was quick to describe Asmerom G. as talented, reliable, and “capable of anything,” according to Bild newspaper.

However, then reality arrived. Within a year, Asmerom G. was in trouble with the law. A brawl led to a conviction for grievous bodily harm at Siegburg District Court, earning him a six-month suspended sentence.

He moved on from Rheinbach and took up work behind the wheel of a freight truck.

Somewhere along the way, he made a trip back to his home country — for reasons that remain unclear — and returned to Germany with a woman named Weghata A., who was 31, his wife under Eritrean law.

On July 26, 2025, she delivered their daughter.

Three months later, Weghata A. was dead.

What happened next garnered headlines across Germany.

On Nov. 17, on Autobahn 45 near Olpe on Nov. 17, a driver said she spotted something on the side of the road. When officers investigated, they found two severed women’s hands. Forensic teams matched the fingerprints to Weghata A., who had already been reported missing from her asylum accommodation in Bonn, where she had been living alone with her infant daughter.

Days later, Weghata A.’s torso was recovered, but her head remains missing.

The baby was found the day before, alive and unharmed, abandoned in a stroller in Hesse outside the Kröffelbach monastery in Waldsolms. A monk found the child and two handwritten notes giving only her name and date of birth.

While investigators quickly identified Asmerom G. as the prime suspect, he had already boarded a flight to Ethiopia. He was arrested there in late November.

In early February, he was extradited back to Germany, where he is now in pre-trial detention.

Read more here…