US equity futures and European stocks rose on the last day of the holiday-shortened week, with sentiment boosted after ECB President Christine Lagarde said policymakers are now in a position to pause after a tightening cycle that risks plunging the euro area into a recession. At 7:45am, both S&P and Nasdaq futures rose 0.1%, while treasuries dropped as they reopened after Thanksgiving, following a slide in European bonds after Germany suspended a constitutional limit on net new borrowing; 10Y TSY yields rise 7bps to 4.47%. The dollar dipped and bitcoin made another run for $38,000.

In premarket trading, Nvidia dropped 1.7% after a Reuters reported that the chip company has told customers in China it is delaying the launch of a new artificial intelligence chip until the first quarter. Tesla dips 0.8%, coming under pressure amid the prospect of steeper price cuts from competitor BYD for its Dynasty series models and an ongoing strike in Sweden. Some other notable premarket movers:

• CleanSpark gains 1.9% as shares of cryptocurrency-linked stocks rise in the premarket session with Bitcoin advancing.
• IRobot jumps 30% as Reuters reports that Amazon is set to win unconditional EU antitrust approval for its acquisition of the household appliance company.

Global stocks are on track for the best month in three years, with the MSCI All Country World Index up 8.6% this month amid growing hopes for peaking US interest rates. Traders are awaiting manufacturing data from the world’s biggest economy later Friday for further clues on the policy path.

“Lower bond yields are driving equity valuations, although the fundamental reason behind the drop in yields, lower inflation caused by weaker growth, isn’t completely discounted into earnings estimates,” said Kyle Rodda, a senior analyst at Capital.com in Melbourne. “Eventually, profit expectations will have to align with economic reality.”

With US markets quiet, European sentiment got a boost after Lagarde said the ECB is now at a point where it can assess the impact of its tightening, echoing other policy makers who suggested on Friday that further tightening may not be necessary. An improvement in German business confidence provided another ray of light against a gloomy economic backdrop for the region. ECB Governing Council Member Robert Holzmann said there’s equal probability of a rate hike or cut in the second quarter of 2024, while his colleague Francois Villeroy de Galhau said the central bank won’t increase borrowing costs again, unless there is an unexpected event.

“It seems the worst for the euro area economy could be behind us,” said Karsten Junius, chief economist at Bank J. Safra Sarafin Ltd. “The economic dynamic is not deteriorating further and might stabilize at low levels instead. This might provide the ground for slightly stronger private consumption in the coming quarters.”

The Stoxx Europe 600 index was about 0.2% higher on course to log a second weekly gain and on track for its best month since January. Energy and insurance stocks were the biggest gainers, while miners and consumer shares lagged.BASF SE led an advance for the chemical sector after Bloomberg News repored that Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. is exploring an acquisition of its Wintershall Dea unit. Here are the other biggest movers Friday:

• Evonik rises as much as 1.8%, as Stifel upgrades the German chemicals manufacturer to buy from hold, citing increasing confidence in its earnings recovery in 2024
• MFE shares advance as much as 5.6%, adding to a 6.2% gain on Thursday, after the broadcaster reported solid results with a positive advertising outlook. Kepler Cheuvreux upgraded the stock to hold from reduce
• U-blox shares gain as much as 3.3% after Kepler Cheuvreux lifted the Swiss wireless communications technologies provider’s price target, saying its exit from the cellular chipset research and development “arms race” against more resourceful competition is positive
• Sage falls as much as 2.3% on Friday, easing from a record high, after Canaccord Genuity downgrades the software firm to sell from hold. The stock’s strong rally since its FY23 results presents a “compelling” profit taking opportunity, analyst Kai Korschelt says
• Mercedes Benz falls as much as 1.1% and Porsche slips 2% after Barclays analysts downgrade their recommendations on the carmakers
• Ambea falls as much as 7.9%, the most since February, after investment group Triton’s ACTR Holding sold 8.4 million shares in the Swedish care-home operator at SEK43.5, representing a 9.4% discount versus Thursday’s close
• Team17 drops by a record 42% in London as the maker of the Dredge fishing adventure videogame warns some of its titles are not performing as well as it had expected, and adds it’s being “too slow to address some project overspends”

A gauge of business expectations in the euro area’s biggest economy rose for a third month in November, pointing to an impending recovery for an economy that is probably in a recession and beset by a budget crisis. Data on economic output earlier had highlighted Germany’s struggle to recover from an energy-induced downturn last winter and the mounting impact of higher borrowing costs.

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks were mixed. Hong Kong and mainland Chinese equities dropped, reversing Thursday’s rally inspired by Beijing’s widening property rescue campaign. Japanese stocks rose in catch-up play after a national holiday, while those in Australia also gained. In China, a gauge of developer stocks fell 1.9% in mid-afternoon trade, following a 8.9% jump Thursday. The previous surge came after Bloomberg News reported that China may allow banks to offer unsecured short-term loans to qualified builders.

• Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were pressured despite the lack of obvious catalysts, while PBoC liquidity efforts and news that China is mulling unprecedented support for the property sector by allowing banks to offer unsecured short-term loans to qualified developers have failed to support the risk tone.
• ASX 200 was led higher by strength in utilities, financials and the energy sector albeit with gains capped by tech weakness and after an Australian warship sailed through the Taiwan Strait which risks stoking frictions between Australia and its largest trading partner.
• Nikkei 225 outperformed on return from its holiday closure as participants digest data releases including national CPI which printed softer than expected although mostly accelerated from the previous month.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is flat, as is the euro, with little reaction to German IFO data. JPY appreciated 0.2% before erasing gains. The pound rises 0.2% versus the greenback. The yen climbed after the nation’s key inflation measure accelerated for the first time in four months, staying well above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target. The Aussie dollar hit its session high of 0.6570 after a couple of exporters entered the market at about the same time to buy spot from local banks, according to Asia-based FX traders

In rates, Treasuries dropped after trading resumed following a holiday, paring gains for the month. The 10-year yield rose more than six basis points to 4.47%, tracking declines in European bonds following a report Thursday that Germany will suspend debt limits for a fourth consecutive year, adding to concerns over more borrowing.

In commodities, Brent oil gained above $81 a barrel after dropping 1.3% over the previous two sessions, while US counterpart West Texas Intermediate was below $77 a barrel following the US Thanksgiving break. The OPEC+ alliance was forced to delay pivotal talks amid a dispute over output quotas, casting a pall of uncertainty over the group’s production policy for next year. The delayed OPEC+ discussions next week will be held online instead of in-person, with Saudi Arabia and its allies embroiled in a dispute over African members’ production levels. Spot gold adds 0.1%.

Looking to the day ahead now, and data releases include the German Ifo business climate indicator for November, along with the US flash PMIs for November. Otherwise, central bank speakers include ECB President Lagarde and Vice President de Guindos.

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 futures up 0.1% to 4,572.00
• MXAP down 0.4% to 161.35
• MXAPJ down 0.8% to 502.96
• Nikkei up 0.5% to 33,625.53
• Topix up 0.5% to 2,390.94
• Hang Seng Index down 2.0% to 17,559.42
• Shanghai Composite down 0.7% to 3,040.97
• Sensex little changed at 65,962.64
• Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.2% to 7,040.76
• Kospi down 0.7% to 2,496.63
• STOXX Europe 600 little changed at 458.39
• German 10Y yield little changed at 2.66%
• Euro little changed at $1.0911
• Brent Futures up 0.2% to $81.57/bbl
• Gold spot up 0.1% to $1,994.88
• U.S. Dollar Index down 0.21% to 103.70

Top overnight news from Bloomberg

• European shares struggled for traction after the latest economic data highlighted Germany’s struggle to recover from an energy-induced downturn last winter and the mounting impact of higher borrowing costs.
• China is ramping up pressure on banks to support struggling real estate developers, signaling President Xi Jinping’s tolerance for property sector pain is nearing its limit.
• The first truce since the war between Israel and Hamas erupted last month went into effect on Friday morning. The deal came after weeks of complex and delicate talks brokered by Qatar, the US and Egypt.
• Japan’s key inflation measure accelerated for the first time in four months, coming largely in line with market expectations that price gains will continue and heightening the Bank of Japan’s dependence on data ahead of its December policy meeting.
• Treasuries fell as they reopened after Thanksgiving, following a slide in European bonds that was caused by concerns of a burgeoning supply and the potential that central banks will keep rates higher for longer.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks traded mixed in the absence of a lead from Wall St and as markets headed into the start of the Israel-Hamas truce. ASX 200 was led higher by strength in utilities, financials and the energy sector albeit with gains capped by tech weakness and after an Australian warship sailed through the Taiwan Strait which risks stoking frictions between Australia and its largest trading partner. Nikkei 225 outperformed on return from its holiday closure as participants digest data releases including national CPI which printed softer than expected although mostly accelerated from the previous month. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were pressured despite the lack of obvious catalysts, while PBoC liquidity efforts and news that China is mulling unprecedented support for the property sector by allowing banks to offer unsecured short-term loans to qualified developers have failed to support the risk tone.

Top Asian News

• WHO held talks with Chinese health authorities in which requested data on the upsurge of respiratory illnesses among children in northern China was provided and no changes in the disease presentation were reported by Chinese health authorities. Furthermore, Chinese health authorities said the rise in respiratory illness has not resulted in patient loads exceeding hospital capacities and there has been no detection of unusual or novel pathogens or unusual clinical presentations including in Beijing and Liaoning.
• Chinese Premier Li met with the French Foreign Minister in Beijing and said that China and France’s relationship is developing better in all aspects this year, according to Reuters.
• US Navy operations chief is excited by prospects of improved communications with the Chinese military and said work is needed to solidify the next steps with the Chinese military, according to Reuters.
• New Zealand’s National, NZ First and ACT parties signed a coalition agreement to form a government with Winston Peters appointed as Deputy PM for the first half of the three-year parliamentary term and David Seymour to be Deputy PM in the second half, while Nicola Willis is to be appointed as Finance Minister. Furthermore, incoming PM Luxon said the Reserve Bank Act will be amended to focus monetary policy on price stability and the incoming government’s policy includes repealing the ban on offshore oil and gas exploration.

European bourses are essentially unchanged with newsflow very light post-Thanksgiving, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.1%. Sectors are mixed but similarly contained with incremental outperformance in defensively-biased names at times while Auto names lag after broker activity. Stateside, futures are similarly contained on Black Friday with developments light aside from NVDA ahead of US Flash PMIs. Nvidia (NVDA) has reportedly informed customers that it is delaying the launch of the China-targeted H20 AI chip until Q1 2024 with the delay due to issues server manufacturers are having integrating the H20 chip, according to Reuters sources. -2.3% in -pre-market trade

Top European News

• BoE’s Pill said the challenge for the Bank and other central banks is that headline inflation is coming down, while he added that economic activity and employment growth are weakening and that the central bank cannot afford to ease off tight monetary policy. Pill stated that UK monetary policy is in a difficult phase and warned of stubbornly high price pressures in the British economy, as well as noted that the MPC had to resist the temptation to declare victory and move on from battle to quash inflation, according to FT.
• ECB’s Villeroy said he doesn’t think the ECB will raise rates again unless there is an unexpected event, while he noted that a gradual reduction in rates will come one day, but added that they are not there yet.
• ECB’s Holzmann says the likelihood of another rate hike is not smaller than that of rate cuts; do still have high inflation numbers, via Die Presse; suggestion on PEPP would be that ECB reduces reinvestments step by step as of March.
• German Finance Minister Lindner confirmed the debt brake suspension for 2023 but added the suspension does not mean new debt.

FX

• Dollar drifts sideways pre-flash US PMIs, with DXY restrained between 103.84-62 parameters.
• Pound perky amidst elevated UK yields as Cable eclipses recent peaks, at 1.2565, and EUR/GBP probes 50 DMA.
• Kiwi underpinned as NZ retail sales defy consensus for a fall and coalition government is formed, NZD/USD 0.6050+ and AUD/NZD cross sub-1.0850.
• Euro remains capped by expiries close to 1.0900 vs the Greenback and the Yen is hampered by higher Treasury yields as USD/JPY pivots 149.50.
• Loonie straddles 1.3700 awaiting Canadian retail sales.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1151 vs exp. 7.1440 (prev. 7.1212)

Fixed Income

• Debt futures flogged on Black Friday and only enticing buyers at fresh weekly lows.
• Bunds towards the bottom of 130.11-63 range, with technical and psychological support at 130.00.
• Gilts midway between 96.07-71 parameters and T-note closer to 108-12 than 108-31 ahead of preliminary US PMIs.
• German Finance Minister Lindner says will put to Cabinet the supplementary budget for 2023 next week; says can only decide about 2024 budget once the country has a supplementary budget for 2023.. Prior to this: Germany is to suspend borrowing limit for 2023 (fourth consecutive year) after the budget ruling; German Finance Minister Lindner is to announce debt brake suspension on Thursday, according to Bloomberg.

Commodities

• WTI and Brent January futures trade horizontally but show a mismatch in intraday price changes amid the lack of settlement.
• Spot gold is flat intraday and just under the USD 2k/oz mark with base metals similarly uneventful given the non-committal tone thus far.
• Volumes remain light with newsflow similarly sparse after initial OPEC+ sources alongside the commencement of the Israel-Hamas four-day truce.
• OPEC+ is moving closer towards a compromise with African oil producers, according to Reuters citing two OPEC+ sources.

Geopolitics

• A four-day truce in the Israel-Hamas war took effect at 7:00 am local time (05:00 GMT) on Friday, with hostages held in the Gaza Strip set to be released later in the day in exchange for Palestinian prisoners, according to AFP.
• Israel’s military said achieving control over the northern half of Gaza is only the first stage in the campaign to destroy Hamas, while they are preparing for the next stages and are looking forward in the coming days in which they will focus on planning and fulfilling the next stages of the war, according to Reuters.
• Israeli military sounded sirens in two villages near Gaza warning of possible rocket launches despite the touted start of the truce.
• Hamas’ armed wing spokesperson called for an escalation of the confrontation with Israel on all resistance fronts.
• An Israeli government official has told LBC News there is scope to extend a four-day pause in fighting with Hamas; The first set of civilians held captive by Hamas are expected to be freed from Gaza this afternoon.
• “3 Palestinians injured in IDF shooting at civilians trying to return to the northern Gaza Strip”, according to Al Jazeera – DETAILS LIGHT (08:25GMT/03:25EST).
• Taiwan’s Defence Ministry said an Australian warship sailed through the Taiwan Strait.
• The White House is reportedly concerned that the UK’s Rwanda plan undermines the Good Friday agreement in Northern Ireland, according to The Times.
• Russia’s Kremlin says the idea of creating a military Schengen zone in Europe to allow NATO forces to freely move around is a cause for concern; Russia will respond if such a zone becomes a reality.

US Event Calendar

• 09:45: Nov. S&P Global US Services PMI, est. 50.3, prior 50.6
• 09:45: Nov. S&P Global US Composite PMI, est. 50.4, prior 50.7
• 09:45: Nov. S&P Global US Manufacturing PM, est. 49.9, prior 50.0

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

The Thanksgiving holiday means it’s been a quiet 24 hours, since US markets were closed yesterday and they’re only open for a half-day today. In the meantime, the main story has been an ongoing bond selloff in Europe, mainly thanks to another batch of hawkish commentary from central bankers, along with some flash PMIs that were slightly better than expected. So there was a bit of a pushback to the recent narrative that rate cuts are just around the corner. Nevertheless, even as investors became more sceptical about near-term rate cuts, risk assets continued to power forward. Indeed, the STOXX 600 (+0.27%) hit a 2-month high, US equity futures were also in positive territory, and the iTraxx crossover index reached its tightest level in over 18 months .

We’ll start with the government bond selloff, which continued for a second day thanks to several developments that collectively leaned on the hawkish side. First, ECB officials continued to push back on rate cuts. For instance, Bundesbank President Nagel said that it’d be “a mistake to loosen our monetary policy stance too early”, and Irish central bank governor Makhlouf said “I would not rule out today that we have to go up another rung”. Separately, we also had the account of the ECB’s latest meeting in October, which explicitly held open the prospect of further rate hikes. It said that “the view was held that the Governing Council should be ready, on the basis of an ongoing assessment, for further interest rate hikes if necessary, even if this was not part of the current baseline scenario.”

On top of that, yesterday saw the release of the November flash PMIs in Europe, which came in slightly on the upside. That included the Euro Area composite PMI, which rose to 47.1 in November (vs. 46.8 expected), and both the manufacturing and services numbers were both slightly above consensus too. Here in the UK, there was a larger upside surprise, with the composite PMI up to 50.1 (vs. 48.7 expected), which puts it just above the expansionary 50-mark for the first time since July.

These developments contributed to a selloff in European government bonds, with yields on 10yr bunds (+5.8bps), OATs (+6.5bps) and BTPs (+7.2bps) all rising on the day. In particular, 10yr gilt yields (+10.0bps) saw the biggest increase thanks to the upside surprise in the UK PMIs, which came on top of the fiscal easing announced in the Autumn Statement the previous day. In turn, that meant that investors continued to price in a more hawkish path for the Bank of England over the months ahead. For instance, according to overnight index swaps , the chance of a rate cut by the June meeting has fallen from 97% on Monday to just 36% by the close yesterday .

That move to price out the chance of rate cuts has been evident more broadly over the last week, and we’ve seen investors dial back the more dovish expectations following the US CPI report on November 14. At the ECB, market pricing for a rate cut by April hit an intraday peak of 93% last week, but was down to 59% by the close last night. Likewise at the Fed, the chance of a cut by May has fallen from an intraday peak of 94% last week to 56% by yesterday’s close. So investors are still expecting a rate cut from the Fed and the ECB by Q2, but there’s a bit less conviction on that relative to a week ago. And overnight, we’ve seen US Treasuries catchup with yesterday’s selloff, with the 10yr yield up +5.4bps to 4.46% .

For equities, yesterday saw a continued advance across Europe that took the STOXX 600 (+0.27%) up to a 2-month high. That advance was clear across several countries, with the DAX (+0.23%), the CAC 40 (+0.24%) and the FTSE 100 (+0.19%) all posting similar moves. Although US markets were closed, futures were still open and those on the S&P 500 were pointing modestly higher throughout the European session and remain slightly higher (+0.05%) this morning.

Overnight in Asia, equity markets have seen a more negative trend, with losses for the major indices. That includes the Hang Seng (-1.46%), the CSI 300 (-0.62%) and the KOSPI (-0.50%), although in Japan the Nikkei (+0.55%) has been the exception as it resumed trading after the previous day’s holiday. The moves also follow some Japan’s inflation data, which showed headline CPI rising to +3.3% in October (vs. +3.4% expected), whilst core-core CPI fell back to +4.0% (vs. +4.1% expected). In the meantime, the flash composite PMI fell to 50.0 in November, marking its weakest level since December 2022.

Finally in Germany, the government announced they would suspend the debt brake for a fourth consecutive year. That follows last week’s ruling by the federal constitutional court that they couldn’t use €60bn of unused borrowing capacity from the pandemic for its climate fund. Finance Minister Christian Lindner is set to present a supplementary budget for 2023 next week.

To the day ahead now, and data releases include the German Ifo business climate indicator for November, along with the US flash PMIs for November. Otherwise, central bank speakers include ECB President Lagarde and Vice President de Guindos.

The enthusiasm in the western media for an imminent Ukrainian victory over Russia has been ever circular; people who only get their news from corporate sources are likely to believe that Russia is about to be defeated any day now.  However, as with all propaganda campaigns the public eventually grows tired of hollow optimism and skeptical of bombastic claims.  Influencing hearts and minds is a fading prospect if your campaign is based on lies.

If the war has taught people anything it is to never trust establishment media sources to be accurate in their reporting, or prescient in their predictions.

A year ago we heard a deafening chorus of voices in the west suggesting that Ukraine’s victory was all but assured.  The media’s boasts were relentless, but the numbers just didn’t add up.  Zelensky’s appetite for NATO money and arms kept growing instead of waning.  Recruitment efforts were expanding to include more women and older men.  The talk of a glorious counter-offensive went on for months with no concrete actions taken.  Rumors of mass deaths at Bakhmut circulated and it became clear that it doesn’t matter how many weapons NATO sends to Ukraine, there aren’t enough soldiers to utilize them.    

Ukraine’s top military commander, Valery Zaluzhny, acknowledged in a recent essay that training and recruiting troops was becoming a serious challenge.  

“The prolonged nature of the war, limited opportunities for the rotation of soldiers on the line of contact, gaps in legislation that seem to legally evade mobilization, significantly reduce the motivation of citizens to serve with the military.”  

The essay admitted a bleak reality: Ukraine needs more people in uniform, and it needs them now.  Wars are won by men, not by armaments.  Going by this metric, Ukraine has already lost.

The situation is far worse than Zaluzhny lets on.  Reports of aging recruits are more frequent these days (the average age of new recruits is older than 40 years).  Training of Ukrainians is rarely done in Ukraine.  Instead, conscripts are shipped to places like the UK, Australia and New Zealand.  This may be because training facilities in their home country are not safe from Russian missile strikes, but a more likely explanation is that Ukraine is running low on experienced soldiers to train new fighters. 

Training in foreign facilities is highly expedited, with programs that normally take months being fast tracked and completed in mere weeks.  Yet another sign that Ukraine is desperate for combat capable troops.  The life expectancy of these trainees is not good, and it is saddening to see Ukraine’s population being used as a proxy in a conflict that should have gone to the negotiating table a long time ago.  

NATO’s clear intent is to see the war continue, perhaps indefinitely.  The problem is, the general public has moved on to other concerns, including the war in Israel and its potential to spread beyond Gaza.  Ammunition and arms shipments once destined for Ukraine are now being diverted to Israel.  Zelensky has become visibly frustrated with the situation.  After many months of being told by US and EU politicians that the whole of the west was flying Ukrainian flags over their homes, reality is finally slapping the former comedian in the face.      

As some predicted last year, “Ukraine fatigue” has set in.  The majority of Americans polled now say they no longer support more funding or arms for Ukraine.  The Democrat and Neocon push for American boots on the ground was immediately quashed by the public.  The purpose behind prolonging the war (convincing westerners to jump behind a plan for direct engagement with Russia) seems to have failed.    

Beyond the logistical nightmare, the growing possibility of Donald Trump returning to the White House is also weighing on the minds of the Ukrainian leadership.  Trump has stated that he plans to put together a deal to end the war as soon as he enters office.  This means that Zelensky will be forced to accept a diplomatic settlement, something he has said he will never do.  

As winter closes in the tone shift in Ukraine is dramatic.  It’s another winter of Russian infrastructure strikes, power outages and utility shortages.  Today, calls for a ceasefire and peace in Gaza are overwhelming, and yet, similar calls for peace in Ukraine are nonexistent.  Maybe it’s time to ask why?

By Bas van Geffen, Senior Macro Strategist at Rabobank

In a big upset, the far-right PVV (Freedom Party) won the Dutch parliamentary elections. Moreover, Wilders’ party won by a much bigger margin than expected. Pollsters saw the biggest three parties running neck-and-neck ahead of election day, with each of them projected at about 27 seats. With 98% of the votes counted, the PVV looks to win 37 instead.

Other non-traditional parties have also done well. Newcomer NSC enters the political scene with 20 seats, and the Farmer-Citizens’ Movement (BBB) can put six additional seats next to its current one. The rise of these parties comes at the cost of the former coalition: liberal VVD (24 seats), centre-right CDA (5) and progressive D66 (9) collectively lost 35 seats. These shifts illustrate the Dutch’ discontent with traditional politicians, and the accountability of the government.

Internationally, Wilders has been known for his anti-Islam stance. This is still part of the party’s platform, but the PVV leader moderated his tone significantly during the campaign. Instead, he focused on those problems that are most pressing for a majority of the Dutch population. With his strict anti-migration Wilders promises a solution to the lack of (affordable) housing. Secondly, Wilders has been vocally opposed to all spending and legislation aimed at combatting climate change. His lead over the combined green and labour party (GL-PvdA) shows that concerns about the climate are, for many people, a luxury. One that they currently simply cannot afford, due to the cost of living crisis.

Though it was a landslide victory, PVV is well short of the 76 seats needed for a majority in parliament. Coalition talks were always going to be quite a puzzle given the fragmentation of the Dutch political landscape and Wilders’ victory certainly does not make this any easier. It would require big compromises on all sides. The coalition that will probably be explored first is one between PVV and the two more centre-right parties, VVD and NSC – possibly including BBB as well. But NSC has been very reluctant to entertain the idea of a coalition that includes the PVV. NSC’s campaign centred on good governance and their leader calls several of Wilders’ plans unconstitutional.

It’s difficult to see many alternatives, though. If PVV cannot muster support from other parties, VVD, NSC and GL-PvdA could possibly form the basis of a coalition. That would also require big compromises. More importantly, bypassing the party that is by far the biggest winner of yesterday’s elections could only further fuel the population’s discontent with traditional politics.

Pending these coalition talks, it’s hard to predict the economic policies. But we see little odds that this will have a large impact on growth or the fiscal position of the country. The PVV wants to increase social spending, but the very tight labour market limits the odds that any government spending boosts growth significantly – especially if the government seeks to limit labour migration the same time. We do however see some upside risks to Dutch inflation, if a PVV-led coalition increases public spending.

PVV do not explicitly say how this spending should be financed, but the risk that this is done through large-scale borrowing is limited. Coalition partners like the VVD will probably seek to enforce budgetary discipline. Conversely, there seems to be little support for budget cuts though. However, Dutch public finances are already in a healthy position, with debt at only 50% of GDP. Indeed, yields on Dutch government bonds are relatively stable, despite the big election upset.

Overall, yields have been rising somewhat on the day, though. US data releases reminded investors of the fact that the Fed remains constrained by inflation that is still too high, even though the committee “was in a position to proceed carefully”, as this week’s release of the minutes showed. Gauges of US inflation expectations were revised higher, in an update to the University of Michigan’s consumer survey. And weekly initial jobless claims were significantly lower than expected.

Cell phone video captured the last moments of a Russian actress’s life, as she sang to a theater full of Russian marines targeted by Ukrainian missiles in a what a Ukrainian commander called a “revenge” attack.  

On Sunday, members of Russia’s 810th Marine Brigade filled a theater at the House of Culture in the village of Kumachovo in what was previously Ukraine’s Donetsk Oblast (province), but which Russia now calls the Donetsk People’s Republic. The event was a combination awards ceremony and concert to mark Russia’s Day of Missile Forces and Artillery.

Video from the event circulating on social media shows 40-year-old Russian actress Polina Menshikh singing and playing guitar. The theater shakes from an explosion, debris falls from the ceiling and the video suddenly goes black while Marines can be heard yelling.  

The St. Petersburg Portal theater confirms that an artillery strike on Nov. 19 killed actress Polina Menshikh during a live performance for Russian troops in Ukraine’s occupied Donetsk region. A video captured her final moments. Two dozen soldiers were also reportedly killed. pic.twitter.com/ek8uiksc6k

— Kevin Rothrock (@KevinRothrock) November 22, 2023

“They smashed the volunteers’ cars with one HIMARS rocket, and with the second one—the dressing room with the artists and the stage,” a service member told Russian media. He alleged the Ukrainians employed a “double-tap” tactic, first attacking the venue and then hitting rescue crews who flocked to the scene. 

Menshikh, who was also a director and choreographer, was taken to a hospital where she died. According to reports, the venue was struck by missiles fired from M142 HIMARS (High Mobility Artillery Rocket System) supplied to Ukraine by the United States. 

Via Telegram, Robert Brovdi, who commands a Ukrainian aerial reconnaissance unit known as the “Birds of Magyar,” said the barrage was carried out as an act of revenge on behalf of the 128th Mountain Assault Brigade. A Russian attack on an awards ceremony coinciding with Ukraine’s Artillery Forces Day killed 20 soldiers from that unit on Nov. 3.  

“Ukraine’s defense forces quickly determined the venue of the Russians’ celebration and warmly congratulated them,” the Ukrainian Armed Forces said in a statement posted to Telegram. Ukraine claimed that about 20 Russian marines died; Russia has released no casualty count.

A Russia-aligned military blogger condemned the country’s military leadership for hosting the event just 37 miles from the front lines, the New York Post reports: “Almost two years of war, and the untaught idiots still do not know what to do and what not to do.”

Alexander Kots, a Russian tabloid journalist, saluted Menshikh, writing, “Polina was aware of the danger. She was a wonderful person, very fragile, light and almost weightless, but with such a big and brave heart.”

Via Remix News,

From its current location, the missile can reach London or Berlin in a matter of minutes…

Russian missile fueling tanker.

In a move designed to flex its nuclear muscle, Russia has redeployed its Yars intercontinental ballistic missile closer to Europe.

The missile, also known in the West as the “Doomsday missile,” has been moved to the Kozelsk military base in the western part of Russia, some 1,500 kilometers from Moscow and 2,400 kilometers from London.

Taking into account its over Mach 30 top speed, the missile can hit London in less than five minutes.

The Kozelsk regiment, where the new missile was loaded into a silo, was the first in Russia’s Strategic Missile Forces to begin upgrading with Yars missiles. The move came hours after Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoygu said that his nation was paying “special attention to the formation of strategic naval nuclear forces.”

In a meeting with Russian military chiefs, the minister added that the share of modern ships in the naval nuclear force has reached 100 percent after three nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines entered the Navy’s service.

Meanwhile, Russia also plans to test the world’s largest ballistic missile, known as Satan 2, in the Arctic region.

Last week, Russian missile forces loaded an intercontinental ballistic missile equipped with the nuclear-capable Avangard hypersonic glide vehicle into a launch silo in southern Russia.

The RS-24 Yars missile has a range of 11,000 kilometers and can carry up to 10 independently targetable warheads of 150 kilotons each. Designed to defeat current and future air defenses, the missile has a top speed of 36,800 kilometers per hour, meaning it is over 30 times faster than the speed of sound.

Although the top speed of the world’s current fastest anti-ballistic missile, the U.S.’s GBI (Ground-Based Interceptor), is classified, estimates range from Mach 16 to Mach 20, which, taking into account the Yars’ speed and the reaction time for detection and targeting would make the Yars practically untouchable.

…

Read more here…

Authored by Michael Clements via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The Second Amendment debate is academic for many Americans—speculation with friends over what-if scenarios and the concept of God-given rights.

On Oct. 7, those rights hit home for Adam Edelman (not his real name) and others in New York’s Jewish community, who were horrified by the Hamas terror attack on Israel and the massacre of 1,200 people.

Then, days later, while he was sitting in his small business outside New York City, pro-Palestinian protestors were marching just miles from his office.

He began recalling his grandparents’, aunts’, and uncles’ accounts of the beginning of the Holocaust. And how he could protect his family in a state that restricts his Second Amendment rights.

Mr. Edelman spoke with The Epoch Times on condition of anonymity out of concern for his family’s safety.

“Well, look, the parallels are there. They’re openly screaming ‘Death to Jews,’” Mr. Edelman told The Epoch Times. “If they had a chance, they would eradicate all the Jews. They would do it.”

Gun rights activists hailed the June 23, 2022, U.S. Supreme Court ruling in New York State Rifle and Pistol Association v. Bruen that citizens have a constitutional right to carry a gun in public for self-defense.

They see the decision as the bookend to the 2008 decision in District of Columbia v. Heller, in which the court ruled that the Second Amendment guarantees an individual right to keep and bear arms.

Since Bruen, 27 states have adopted so-called constitutional carry laws, which allow law-abiding citizens to carry a firearm without a license.

But not all legislatures celebrated.

In many blue states, where strict gun laws are the norm, legislatures took the opposite path. California, Oregon, Illinois, Washington, and other states implemented more firearms restrictions or refitted existing laws to the new standard.

Washington, Illinois, and Delaware joined the seven other states that banned certain types of semi-automatic rifles, so-called assault weapons.

Other states added prohibitions on where guns could be legally carried, expanding their lists of “sensitive places.”

The centerpiece of New York’s reaction to Bruen was the Concealed Carry Improvement Act (CCIA), announced on Aug. 31, 2022.

The CCIA increased the training required for a license, expanded the number of places where concealed carry was prohibited, made in-person interviews and a review of an applicant’s social media accounts mandatory, and reduced the license recertification period from five years to three years.

The state set up a website to explain the new law.

Gov. Kathy Hochul’s office didn’t respond to an interview request. But in a July 1 speech touting a law mandating background checks for ammunition purchases, Ms. Hochul said New Yorkers’ Second Amendment rights would be protected.

“We know this has nothing to do with lawful gun owners, nothing to do with them at all. These are people who have been convicted of felonies or other categories of people that should be prohibited from firearms and ammunition,” she said.

Mr. Edelman said that the restrictions have turned out to have much to do with law-abiding citizens.

He is a federal firearms license holder, gun dealer, and New York state and NRA firearms instructor. He said that since the Oct. 7 attacks, demands for his firearms license class have increased as the threats from protestors have overridden the political leanings of many in the Jewish community.

“I live in a very, very liberal area. A lot of those people are coming to me like, ‘What do we need to protect the house?’ These are the people who never thought they would ever need to buy a gun,” Mr. Edelman said.

Being new to firearms and the laws that apply to them, Mr. Edelman’s students are often surprised at the hoops through which they must jump simply to own a gun. The state requirements can appear daunting, and the process can take anywhere from a few months to years to complete.

As the process plays out, Jewish applicants will be left unarmed as their enemies march, Mr. Edelman said.

“There are a number of laws that are really precluding law-abiding citizens from first acquiring firearms and exercising their right to defend themselves,” Mr. Edelman said.

The city of Peekskill is in the hills on the east bank of the Hudson River, about 10 miles south of the U.S. Military Academy at West Point and 43 miles north of New York City.

At 1000 Division Street in Peekskill, The Hat Factory houses a milk distribution company, a yoga studio, and Donahoo Consulting, among other businesses, offices, and art studios.

Steve Donahoo, owner of Donahoo Consulting, is a retired New York City police officer. He’s a gregarious, outgoing man who jokes that if a clean desk is the sign of a sick mind, then he “must be healthy.”

Like Mr. Edelman, Mr. Donahoo is an NRA-certified instructor and teaches the New York state licensing course. And, like Mr. Edelman, he often has to encourage students to persevere through a licensing process that may seem interminable.

Mr. Donahoo pointed out that the state-required training is only the first step.

Each county and New York City has additional requirements. Failure to comply with them can put the entire process on hold.

He recounted the story of one student whose county required that all application forms downloaded from the internet be printed on both sides of the page. The student printed his forms on one side of each page and was told by county officials he could reapply again in a year.

“It’s a big commitment to get a pistol license nowadays,” Mr. Donahoo said.

And it’s a big commitment to keep one.

Both men said that New York has no stand-your-ground law, or castle doctrine. Licensed gun owners still have a legal duty to retreat, even in their homes. A firearm is considered a means of last resort. Even then, the state often doesn’t recognize an individual’s right to self-defense.

At one point, the co-op board president felt threatened. He drew his licensed firearm and asked the man to leave, which he did. Mr. Edelman said no shots were fired and no one was injured in the nonviolent confrontation.

The co-op board president was arrested and charged with a crime. Mr. Edelman uses the incident in his class to warn his students.

“Know that you will be arrested, there will be charges filed against you, it doesn’t matter if you did it in self-defense or not. This is the state we live in,” Mr. Edelman said.

The owner of a liquor store in North Tonawanda, New York, discovered that New York firearms regulations could cost him his livelihood even when there is no gunplay.

For Ian Brennan, the issue isn’t about self-defense, though he does support the right to carry. The 30-something business owner has always collected unique or unusual firearms, especially antiques.

“I’m a really big fan of history and everything like that.” Mr. Brennan told The Epoch Times as he pointed to the 1857 muzzleloader on the wall above the cash register at Yankee Spirits.

Read more here…

As the ole’ expression goes: money talks and bulls**t walks.

That appears to be the theme of a new study by the Ludwig Institute for Shared Economic Prosperity, which found this week that paying up to live in some of the major cities in the U.S. could offer the best living standards for middle class and lower class households.

The report, cited in a new Bloomberg article, found that the institute’s analysis, which evaluates the economic welfare of middle- and working-class residents in the 50 largest US metro areas, indicates that the elevated wages in these locations more than compensate for the increased costs.

The study used criteria like the price of essential goods and services, their inflation over the past 20 years, wages, and general employment indicators. A crucial observation is that top-performing cities usually offer a more balanced variety of jobs across different pay levels.

It also monitors variations in prices of necessities such as housing, food, and childcare, and contrasts these with the median weekly earnings of the entire workforce, encompassing part-time workers and job seekers, who are often omitted from many wage assessments.

San Jose, California, emerges as the leading city in this respect. San Jose tops 50 metros in disposable income and ranks fourth in spending power growth since 2005.

Conversely, Seattle lags, with living standards not matching price rises. New York City and other costly metros like Los Angeles rank poorly on the Ludwig scale for middle- and working-class families, partly due to a high proportion of low-paying jobs.

For instance, Las Vegas and Miami have 63% and 56% of workers in low-wage roles, respectively, compared to the national average of around 35%. Better-performing cities in Ludwig’s ranking, such as Austin and Baltimore, have even lower percentages of low-wage jobs.

Gene Ludwig, head of the institute, said: “Across the nation we are seeing both ends of the spectrum — communities where middle- and working-class families are faring well and others where financial survival remains a struggle.”

Bloomberg also noted that 60% of Americans struggle to afford basic needs, a situation worsened by the pandemic-induced surge in essential living costs, notably housing.

A US Senate Joint Economic Committee analysis indicates that, as of October 2023, an average US family requires an additional $11,400 annually to maintain their 2021 living standards. However, in costly metros like San Jose and San Francisco, higher salaries help counterbalance these increased expenses. The Ludwig researchers specifically examined the disposable income of median earners after covering essential monthly costs, the report said.

Philip Cornell, a member of the research team, added: “A lot of cities are actually negative with that. If you’re a median earner in Los Angeles and you’re just trying to meet your basic needs, you’re falling behind. Whereas in San Jose, the median earner is doing better.”

By Sam Bourgi of CreditNews,

With Black Friday just around the corner, retailers are offering larger discounts in advance to lure inflation-weary shoppers back to their stores. According to an Adobe Analytics analysis, retailers got a headstart on Black Friday deals this year, with most online product categories offering extended holiday discounts beginning in October.

Online apparel prices were down 9% during the month, compared to 2% and 5% discounts in 2021 and 2022, respectively.

Furniture discounts were 5% this October, compared to 2% and 1% in the previous two years. Steeper discounts were also reported for sporting goods, televisions, and appliances.

Adobe Analytics tracks eight online product categories and said only electronics and toys had fewer discounts than the previous holiday seasons.

Separate data from Jane Hali & Associates, a retail-focused research firm, shows that major brands like Kohl’s and Macy’s have already slashed prices by up to 60% on some products.

Research from GlobalData backs up these numbers. The analytics firm said 8% of items sold in October were discounted, compared to 7% in 2022 and 3% in 2021.

In all, the average discount rose to 24%, up from 13% in 2021 and 20% in 2022.

While it’s not unusual for Black Friday deals to begin earlier than the day after Thanksgiving, retailers are working extra hard this year to push their products out the door because of slower consumer spending.

Consumer spending weakens ahead of holidays

Experts warn that consumers are already tapped out and don’t have enough money to splurge this holiday season.

In the latest quarterly reports, several major retailers, including Walmart and Target, have raised concerns that this season may be slower than usual.

“Consumers are feeling the weight of multiple economic pressures, and discretionary retail has borne the brunt of this weight,” said Christina Hennington, Target’s chief growth officer.

“We are more cautious on the consumer than we were 90 days ago at this time,” said Walmart CFO John David Rainey.

According to the NRF, holiday sales in November and December are forecast to rise between 3% and 4% compared to the same period in 2022, the smallest increase in five years.

That’s a problem for the retail sector, which derives 19% of its annual revenue from the holiday shopping season.

While holiday shopping data isn’t available yet, there’s evidence that consumer spending is already running dry.

According to the Commerce Department, U.S. retail sales declined by 0.1% in October. This may not seem like much, but it was the first month of negative growth since March. The report showed only modest sales growth at “nonstore retailers” (e-commerce shops).

“Despite heavy promotion of e-commerce sales events during October, nonstore retailers’ sales rose just 0.2% after a strong performance in September,” KPMG analysts wrote.

“Consumer sentiment remains depressed and retailers have to be getting nervous about the all-important holiday period,” said Bankrate analyst Ted Rossman.

American households feeling the pinch

Retailers have good reason to feel nervous about the holiday season. Consumer spending is directly tied to household finances, which are currently under the strain of interest rates, ballooning debt levels, and weaker employment prospects.

Americans collectively owed $1.08 trillion in credit card debt in the third quarter—the highest on record. At the same time, the share of consumers falling behind on their payments is back to pre-Covid levels.

Households are “trying to keep the house of cards from collapsing,” according to Charlie Wise, a research executive with TransUnion. That’ll be hard to do with average credit card interest rates exceeding 21%, according to Fed data. Several retail credit cards now charge more than 30%.

Brandon Herrera, a firearm social media personality with more than 3 million subscribers on YouTube, visited San Antonio’s first-ever gun buyback event last Sunday. He offered a more generous offer for those looking to dispose of their firearms: cash instead of the city’s gift cards to supermarket chain H-E-B. 

The city offered people $300 for semi-automatic rifles, $200 for handguns, $150 for a rifle or shotgun, and $50 for a malfunctioning or homemade gun. However, the gift cards were limited only to groceries at H-E-B. 

Herrera published a video on his YouTube page that showed him and friends holding signs that read, “Licensed Gun Dealer … $$$ CASH $$$ … 4 Guns.” 

He purchased a number of pistols, rifles, and shotguns – a sign folks wanted cash instead of gift cards. 

Then Herrera was booted from the property by police for buying the guns that were supposed to be turned into the city. 

And others were doing the same. 

The city handed out $175,000 in gift cards last Sunday. There was no word on how many folks traded guns for cash. 

Studies have shown gun buybacks are ineffective. Only law-abiding citizens are handing over their guns – not criminals.

Perhaps Herrera and others have found a new way to purchase cheap guns – show up at gun buybacks hosted by cities and states and offer cash. 

Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,

Iraq’s government on Wednesday blasted US airstrikes launched in the country against Shia militias, calling them a violation of Iraqi sovereignty.

“We vehemently condemn the attack on Jurf al-Nasr, executed without the knowledge of Iraqi government agencies,” said Iraqi government spokesman Basem al-Awadi.

“This action is a blatant violation of sovereignty and an attempt to destabilize the security situation,” al-Awadi added.

The statement came after the US military announced it launched airstrikes early Wednesday against facilities south of Baghdad used by Kataib Hezbollah, a Shia militia that’s aligned with Iran. Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), an umbrella group of Shia militias that formed in 2014 to fight ISIS, said eight of its fighters were killed in the US strikes.

About 24 hours earlier, a US AC-130 Gunship launched airstrikes against individuals the US claims were responsible for a ballistic missile attack on the Ain al-Asad airbase, which hosts US troops. US officials said the AC-130 killed three militants.

The AC-130 strikes were the first the US launched in Iraq since US troops in Iraq and Syria started coming under attack due to President Biden’s support for Israel’s onslaught in Gaza. According to the Pentagon, US troops have come under attack 66 times in Iraq and Syria since October 17.

The US previously launched three rounds of airstrikes in eastern Syria. Over the weekend, The Washington Post reported that the Pentagon was aware launching strikes in Iraq could “exacerbate anti-American sentiment” in the country. 

The US has 2,500 troops in Iraq, a presence many elements in Iraq strongly oppose. The Iraqi government said the airstrikes violated the agreement the US has with Baghdad to keep troops in the country.

“The recent incident represents a clear violation of the coalition’s mission to combat [ISIS] on Iraqi soil,”” the statement said. The government also condemned the frequent attacks on US troops and said it was the only authority that could punish the perpetrators.

Aftermath of US strikes on PMF group in Jurf al-Nasr, Iraq. pic.twitter.com/p3TRlAML8f

— Wladimir van Wilgenburg (@vvanwilgenburg) November 22, 2023

“The Iraqi government is solely dedicated to enforcing the law and holding violators accountable, a prerogative exclusively within its purview. No party or foreign agency has the right to assume this role, as it contradicts Iraqi constitutional sovereignty and international law,” the statement said.