Authored by Matt Taibbi via Racket News,

Paul Krugman of the New York Times on America’s “belief” problem when it comes to the economy:

Biden is not, in fact, presiding over a bad economy. On the contrary, the economic news has been remarkably good, and history helps explain why. Nonetheless, many Americans tell pollsters that the economy is bad. Why? I don’t think we really know… Many voters have demonstrably false views about the current economy — believing, in particular, that unemployment, which is near a 50-year low, is actually near a 50-year high.

The Guardian editorial Krugman linked to explains: Americans continue to believe the economy sucks, even though they’ve been told over and over it doesn’t! Why won’t they listen?

Commenting on their own exclusive poll, the Guardian wrote:

The results illustrate a dramatic political split on economic views — with Republicans far more pessimistic than Democrats. But unhappiness about the economy is widespread.

Two-thirds of respondents (68%) reported it’s difficult to be happy about positive economic news when they feel financially squeezed each month (Republicans: 69%, Democrats: 68%).

Noting Joe Biden’s achievements include a “landmark $1.2 trillion infrastructure bill” and legislative actions “predicted to create 1.5m jobs per year for the next decade,” the Guardian complained:

That message may be hard to sell given the widespread disbelief of and ignorance about the health of the US economy highlighted by the poll.

As well as being wrong about the unemployment data, respondents were unaware of, or chose to mischaracterize, other major economic data points.

I can’t remember an instance of newspapers polling Americans about their feelings, then telling them their answers are not only wrong, but ignorant! The Guardian takes the additional hilarious step of blasting respondents for making it harder to “sell” the story the economy is doing well.

Krugman, last seen citing the sqme unemployment stat and insisting those who complain about the economy are Republicans bent on “giving Vladimir Putin victory,” now says the problem is “psychological,” because people want to think higher incomes are personal reward rather than monetary side-effect.

Subscribers to Racket News can read the rest here…

Submitted by Gun Owners of America,

After years in litigation, a Trump-era gun control rule is finally headed to the Supreme Court.

The case in question is Cargill v. Garland. In January of 2023, the 5th Circuit decided that bump stocks were not, in fact, machine guns, as they do not meet the definition of ‘machine gun’ as stated by federal law.

Gun Owners everywhere are saying: “Exactly!”

For those unfamiliar, a bump stock is a device that uses the recoil of a firearm to “bump” the trigger. This causes a semi-automatic firearm to shoot faster. While the ATF now considers this device to be a “machine gun” under federal law, it’s worth noting that bump fire can be achieved with belt loops and pants pockets. 

U.S. House of Reps. votes 233-194 (including 13 Republicans) to pass a bump stock & bump fire ban. Apparently, belt-loops and pants-pockets must now be illegal, too! Watch @RealGunLobbyist bump fire without a stock ⤵️ pic.twitter.com/7jXPo94Jgg

— Gun Owners of America (@GunOwners) June 8, 2022

The 5th Circuit ruled against US Attorney General Merrick Garland and blocked the ATF’s bump stock rule, which had been in place since 2019. 

Before that decision, GOA had a nearly identical case in the 6th Circuit, GOA v. Garland. But the Supreme Court declined to hear our case when we petitioned them. 

But because our case and Cargill’s case are so similar, we’ve created what’s known as a circuit split, which is when two federal courts issue opposite decisions. The circuit split has made it extremely difficult for the Supreme Court to ignore this case. 

Bump stocks do not make firearms into fully automatic weapons nor do they “pose a significant threat to public safety.”

We are glad our case helped pave the way for Michael Cargill’s case to make it to SCOTUS and we’re confident the correct decision will be made. https://t.co/ZfbRPAa8jp

— Gun Owners of America (@GunOwners) November 3, 2023

And maybe the most important detail is that both cases were filed not on Second Amendment grounds but instead on the fact that ATF exceeded its powers by creating law out of thin air with this “regulation.”  

The Supreme Court has an opportunity in this case not just to reign in the rogue bureaucrats at the ATF, but also to put limits on how executive agencies issue regulations. This case could affect many of Biden’s more recent gun control regulations, which were issued in the same manner as the Trump-era bump stock ban.

To this day, ATF has gone unchecked by the Supreme Court for this behavior. Even the House of Representatives attempted to smack down the recent ATF pistol brace rule by passing H.J. Res 44. This attempt ultimately failed in the Senate, but only by one vote, and is a massive boon to our current lawsuit against Biden’s pistol brace ban. 

When we fight in the courts, we rely on the grievances of our members who we represent. This is why notice and comment periods are so important. Each ATF rule, by law, must go through the notice and comment period. ATF must consider each comment when regulating, so our members need to make their voices heard.

If you didn’t already know, we’re actually in a notice and comment period right now. Biden is currently directing his Department of Justice and the ATF to “bring the United States as close to universal background checks as possible without the passage of new legislation.” 

We’re calling on all our members to comment on this new rule. We all know that universal background checks are the first step towards a national gun registry.

We can’t allow this to happen. 

Please click here to comment on the ATF’s new Universal Background Check rule and help us defeat it! 

*    *    * 

We’ll hold the line for you in Washington. We are No Compromise. Join the Fight Now.

Submitted by QTR’s Fringe Finance

Given that the market took a sharp turn lower on Thursday afternoon after the results of a dogsh*t (technical finance term #8203) 30 year treasury auction that posted a stunning 5.3 bps tail and a bid to cover that was the lowest since December 2021, I thought it would be a good idea to refresh myself and my readers on…well, exactly what the f*ck all that stuff means.

Tail? Bid-to-cover? Beavis and Butthead had better luck understand things in Spanish class back at Highland High:

In plain terms, yesterday’s bond auction means the government sale of debt that is necessary to continue running the economic Ponzi scheme we call fiscal and monetary policy didn’t go quite as well as old crow Janet Yellen’s medicine show would have liked.

Why is understanding the rest of the jargon and nonsense about auctions important? Take a look at the equity market’s reaction to the 30Y auction on Thursday, courtesy of Mr. Durden over at Zero Hedge:

Chart: Zero Hedge

And so when you’re having the perfunctory happy hour discussion about “the day in markets” in your Patagonia vest in some douchebag bar in Tribeca full of everyone I’ve tried to avoid my entire life, wouldn’t you like to make some sense? Or, at least, fake it well like I do?

Zero Hedge’s full coverage of the disaster auction Thursday can be found here, though it’s probably worth a read after James’ below “…for Dummies” series on how to understand auction terminology, contained below.

The below explanation of how treasury auctions work was written in 2022 by James Lavish, CFA, who you can follow on Twitter here or subscribe to his newsletter here. I highly recommend both. 

Treasury auctions can give us clues to the health or problems of the entire US financial system. But what are those clues and how can you tell?

Auction Terminology & Basics

First, this thread is about auctions by the US Treasury, selling bonds to finance US public debt. They have various maturities and names:

• T-Bills are shorter than 1 yr

• Notes are shorter than 10 yrs

• Treasury Bonds are longer than 10 yrs

• and Treasury Inflation Protection Securities (TIPS) and Floating Rate Notes (FRNs) have various maturities

These can all be referred to as ‘bonds’, but traders never refer to anything above 10-years as a ‘note’. Treasury auctions occur regularly, and ~300 public auctions are held each year.

The US Treasury has auctioned about $11.2T of bonds in 2022 [when James’ original thread was written], so far. Big business. One that needs a lot of demand to keep this whole debt charade going.

Let’s clarify some definitions and rules to better understand what happens during an auction. First, to participate directly, a bidder must have an established account.

Institutions use TAAPS (Treasury Automated Auction Processing System), individuals use a TreasuryDirect account. Individuals can only place *non-competitive* bids, where they agree to accept whatever discount rate (yield) is set by the auction. Institutions can place either non-competitive or *competitive* bids, where the bidder specifies an interest rate they are willing to accept.

Institutions can also trade in advance of an auction, and then settle with each other when the auction happens. This is called the *when-issued* market and is pretty important to our discussion, so we’ll talk more about that in a bit.

Back To The Auction Itself

Once an auction begins, the Treasury first accepts all non-competitive bids and then auctions off the remainder of what it’s looking to raise. This is where competitive bidders are unsure whether they’ll be filled at their price. The process is called a *Dutch auction*.

For example, say the Treasury wants to raise $100 million in 10-year Notes with a 4% coupon. And say it receives $10 million of non-competitive bids.

The Treasury first accepts all these non-competitive bids and reduces the amount left for the Dutch auction to $90 million. If it then receives the following competitive bids:

• $25 million at 3.88%

• $20 million at 3.90%

• $30 million at 4.0%

• $30 million at 4.05%

• $25 million at 4.12%

The bids with the lowest yield will be accepted first and then ascend up until the auction is filled.

Here, the Treasury needs to raise $100 million.

It first accepts $10 million of non-competitive bids, then all competitive bids up to 4.0% ($75 million), then $15 million of the 4.05% bids for $90 million total. So, those who bid 4.05% would receive half of their orders filled.

At auction’s end, all bidders receive the same yield at the highest accepted bid.

In this case, $100 million of Treasuries were auctioned off at 4.05%.

On the face of it, this looks pretty bad, as the Treasury had to offer a higher yield to raise its target amount.

But how bad? And how can we tell?

50% OFF ALL SUBSCRIPTIONS: Subscribe and get 50% off and no price hikes for as long as you wish to be a subscriber.

Metrics Of An Auction: The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly

The answer—per usual with Wall Street—lies in the expectations of pricing. Let’s turn to the metrics of an auction next to find out how.

*Bid to Cover Ratio*

One of the first things traders look at is the Bid to Cover ratio (often referred to as BTC). A simple statistic, this is just the total amount of bids received divided by the amount of bonds sold at an auction.

In the case above, the total bids amounted to $140 million and the auction was for $100 million of Notes, so the BTC ratio would be 1.4x.

Like many stats, what we’re often looking for is changes from prior periods. Is the BTC ratio rising or falling? And how rapidly?

If market liquidity is drying up, this would be a good first indicator. If it drops low enough, it’s a major red flag. More on that in a minute.

Looking at the release of stats from [one of last year’s] US 10-year Note auctions, we can see at the bottom, in the footnotes, that this auction had a 2.37 BTC ratio

And looking at recent 10-year Treasury Note auctions, we see this is largely in line with the BTC we have been seeing, so no red flags here.

The High Yield

Another, usually much more important, metric to keep an eye on is the *stop price*, aka the *high yield* (see in press release above)—the actual yield received by bidders in the auction.

Two things we’re looking for here. Remember how we said these securities trade in a when-issued market before and leading up to an auction?

This creates what is called the *snap price*. It sets the price expectations for an auction and is a critical piece of information for investors.

First, was the auction overbid or underbid? In overbidding, the stop (high yield) is lower than the snap (when issued yield), and this is usually seen as a solid auction. With underbidding, the stop is higher than the snap, indicating a weak auction.

To put it simply, the snap (when-issued) tells us how the bond traded leading up the auction, and the stop (high yield) tells us how strong the auction was itself.

The Auction Tail

Another thing we’re looking for with the high yield, and a bond-fan favorite is called the *auction tail*. The tail is the high yield minus the bond’s when-issued yield.

[QTR: In simpler, slightly less accurate terms, you can think of it as the spread between expected yield, pre-auction, and the reality of the high yield actually determined by the auction. Even simpler, but less accurate, you can think of it as a spread between expectations and reality for the auction, of sorts, with a higher spread meaning a bigger gap].

If there is no measurable tail, we say that the auction finished *on the screws*.

A negative tail means that the auction went better than expected, with higher-than-expected demand. But a positive tail tells us the auction did not go well because the yield realized in the auction exceeded market expectations, meaning weaker-than-expected demand.

Bottom line, the tail measures unanticipated Treasury demand shifts before auction. The larger the tail, the worse the auction.

And if we ever see a tail in the 4, 5, or 6 bps range, this would be considered disastrous in the bond world and mean things are breaking in US Treasuries. [QTR: Thus the importance of yesterday’s 5.3 bps tail…]

OK, so now we know that a low bid-to-cover could be a red flag, an underbid auction can be cause for some concern, and a big tail is a big no-no. But what exactly does it mean when a Treasury auction fails?

Treasury Auction Total Failure

Going back to the BTC ratio, you may wonder what happens if the Treasury holds an auction and receives fewer bids than face value of the securities they’re selling.

This would mean the BTC falls below 1, and the Treasury failed to raise as much money as they expected. In the bond world, this is a failed auction and nothing short of catastrophic for the US Treasury.

So you may ask, with dwindling demand for USTs and active selling from Japan and China, is there a possibility of a failed auction soon? Why yes. Yes there is.

But there are a couple of fixes to prevent this from happening, at least yet.

See, US commercial banks are still flush with capital, as the Fed is receiving over $2.3T of reverse repo purchases daily [QTR: This number is closer to $1T daily now, as of November 2023]. This is extra cash that banks sell to the Fed overnight to be paid interest.

James has also written an entire Substack post about the repo and reverse repo market that you can read here for free.

One fix is the Fed adjusting commercial bank SLR requirements to let them hold more bonds in lieu of cash or cash-like instruments. Or, the Treasury could issue more short term notes and fewer bonds, allowing all this reverse repo money to be used in the auctions instead. But once that $2.3T runs out [QTR: again, now $1T], all bets are off, and QE infinity is on.

With all of that being said, now lets look back on Thursday’s auction tail, courtesy of a chart from Zero Hedge:

Given your newfound knowledge, I recommend reading this wrap up of the auction. Then, you can join 18K+ of James Lavish’s readers here: jameslavish.com.

As for me? I’m going for a couple cold ones. And not in Tribeca. F*ck those guys.

Thank you for reading QTR’s Fringe Finance. This post is public so feel free to share it: Share

QTR’s Disclaimer: I am an idiot and often get things wrong and lose money. I may own or transact in any names mentioned in this piece at any time without warning. Contributor posts and aggregated posts have not been fact checked and are the opinions of their authors and are either published with the author’s permission or under a Creative Commons license. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any stocks or securities, just my opinions. I often lose money on positions I trade/invest in. I may add any name mentioned in this article and sell any name mentioned in this piece at any time, without further warning. None of this is a solicitation to buy or sell securities. These positions can change immediately as soon as I publish this, with or without notice. You are on your own. Do not make decisions based on my blog. I exist on the fringe. The publisher does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided in this page. These are not the opinions of any of my employers, partners, or associates. I did my best to be honest about my disclosures but can’t guarantee I am right; I write these posts after a couple beers sometimes. Also, I just straight up get shit wrong a lot. I mention it twice because it’s that important.

Who controls global wealth?

In 2022, the world’s millionaires held nearly half of net household wealth. Decades of low interest rates led equities and real estate values to soar, and these assets are disproportionately held among the world’s wealthiest.

While a steep rise in interest rates decreased these fortunes in 2022, the share of wealth controlled by the global millionaire population remains substantial.

In the graphic below, Visual Capitalist’s Dorothy Neufeld and Christina Kostandi show the distribution of global household wealth, based on the annual 2023 UBS Global Wealth Report.

The Distribution of Global Wealth

Worldwide net private wealth stood at $454.4 trillion in 2022.

Here’s how it was distributed across various levels of net worth, which takes a person’s financial and real assets such as housing, and subtracts their debt:

The highest wealth rung controls $208.3 trillion in wealth, or 45.8% of the global total. Just 1.1% of the world adult population fall in this bracket.

Those with $100,000 to $1 million have the next greatest share, at 39.4% of net household wealth.

We can see that wealth ownership begins to decline dramatically in the next bracket. People with $10,000 to $100,000 control just 13.6% of global wealth. However, the number of people in the global middle class have more than doubled over the last two decades, driven by the rapid expansion of China.

Interestingly, the lowest segment of wealth has shrunk considerably since 2000. Between 2000 and 2022, it fell from 80.7% to 52.5% of the global population, and is projected to keep decreasing. Despite this, the total share of wealth controlled by this rung is just 1.2% of the global total.

Future Outlook

By 2027, global wealth is estimated to reach $629 trillion. Here’s the forecast for how wealth distribution is set to evolve:

Over this time period, the global millionaire population is set to reach 86 million. Below, we show how this is projected to change in select markets:

As the above table shows, double-digit growth in the millionaire population is projected for many markets, with China, Brazil, and the UK forecast to see the fastest growth by 2027.

Overall, total global wealth is forecast to increase 6.7% annually on average by 2027 factoring in current global inflation forecasts and GDP projections.

Authored by Matthew Hoh via Counterpunch.org,

In 1954, the US Congress renamed Armistice Day to Veterans Day.

The stated reason was to remember all generations of US veterans, not just veterans from the First World War.

Congress advanced this rationale on the disingenuous notion that Armistice Day’s purpose was a celebration of veterans.

It was not.

Armistice Day’s purpose was to serve as a reminder of the horrors of the First World War and carry forward the declaration of those veterans of Never Again.

Armistice Day poster from the US Department of Labor, 1919.

For a US government implementing a militarized Cold War foreign policy in 1954, a reconciliation-based holiday was inconvenient and problematic. A holiday celebrating veterans would present no critique of war or advocacy of peace; it would do the opposite. As we have seen repeatedly since 1954, Veterans Day and other aspects of “support the troops” rhetoric have been used to shout down dissent towards American wars in Vietnam, Afghanistan and Iraq and suppress criticism of America’s massive overseas military empire and gargantuan Pentagon budgets. The veneration of veterans, almost always obligatorily referred to as heroes, became quasi-deification. In my life, I have seen my military service elevated to near clerical levels, reflecting a pseudo-religious treatment of America’s military caste, best exemplified by the reflexive and ritual-like statements of “thank you for your service.” The political calculus behind the name change was correct.

The militarized foreign policy of the Cold War did not just remain when the Cold War ended but became turbo-charged. The results of that militarized foreign policy have been disastrous for US national security and worldwide stability. The tremendous suffering of entire nations of people, as well as American veterans and their families, cannot be overstated. 

Our celebration of war that accompanies each annual Veterans Day is reflected yearlong through our politics, news media, Hollywood, and education system. The consequences of this militarization do not stop with the death and destruction from the instability and wars but include the growth of a ravenous military-industrial complex, a Leviathan, at the expense of our economy and society. With 60% of the federal discretionary budget going to the Pentagon, military contractors and to pay the costs of past wars, the opportunity costs to American communities who are told there is not enough money for healthcare, education, environmental protection and other needs are severe.

That change from Armistice Day to Veterans Day in 1954 signaled a conversion of the American government and its purposes.

While the US was an empire before the Second World War, the victory in 1945 created an America that was The Empire. We have been reaping the consequences of that transformation ever since.

Imagine what would be now if, rather than policies derived from a jingoistic narrative of good wars and honorable slaughters, we had preceded with the wisdom of those men from 1918 and followed their admonition of Never Again.

Returning to Armistice Day would not simply restore the holiday’s original name but would signal a commitment to peace, stability, prosperity, and hope for future generations.

As we endure veteran suicide epidemics, bear a hollow economy and fragile communities, witness our government direct and contribute to the great and unholy carnage in Africa, the Middle East, and Eastern Europe, and recognize the twin existential catastrophes of nuclear war and climate change, what Armistice Day can represent does not sound simply aspirational but entirely necessary.

*  *  *

Matthew Hoh is a member of the advisory boards of Expose Facts, Veterans For Peace and World Beyond War. In 2009 he resigned his position with the State Department in Afghanistan in protest of the escalation of the Afghan War by the Obama Administration. He previously had been in Iraq with a State Department team and with the U.S. Marines. He is a Senior Fellow with the Center for International Policy.

More evidence has emerged this week that Russia is poised to soon solidify hold over all of the Donetsk region, in yet more bad news for Ukraine, after its struggled to make any gains at all for the last six months. 

Newly published military maps show that Russian forces are in the midst of a large pincer move involving some 40,000 troops closing in on the key city of Avdiivka, which has long been a Moscow objective since the war’s start. 

Ukraine’s military has acknowledged this week: “They are building up reserves. They’ve brought in about 40,000 men here along with ammunition of all calibers.”

According to more of the statement issued by Anton Kotsukon, spokesman for Ukraine’s 110th mechanized brigade, “We see no sign of the Russians abandoning plans to encircle Avdiivka.”

Further, Kotsukon described that “Russian troops have surrounded Avdiivka on three sides and were playing cat and mouse and sending up huge numbers of drones to analyze Kyiv’s defenses,” according to a summary of his briefing.

For Ukraine, the city is seen as a strategic hoped-for future gateway to launch operations to recapture territory in the east, but that prospect is clearly slipping. 

Washington-based think tank The Institute for the Study of War has published a fresh map showing the encirclement in progress:

The town had over 32,000 residents before the war, but now could be down to less than 2,000 – according to media estimates.

While the “four territories” of the east and south have already been annexed, incorporated into the Russian federation, there are still areas not completely under Russian control yet. All of his is a key war aim of President Putin’s.

Via Remix News,

A key battleground during the European parliamentary elections next year will be the issue of mass migration, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has said, claiming that the migration policies adopted by liberal governments in Western Europe have increased the terror threat on the continent.

Speaking to Hungary’s Kossuth Rádió, the Hungarian leader said that a recently declassified secret service report on migration proved his administration right in its assessment that “migration and terrorism go hand in hand,” and reaffirmed his government’s commitment to cracking down on illegal immigration in the name of national security.

Migrants are becoming increasingly aggressive and are trying to break through Hungary’s southern border fence using increasingly brutal means, Orbán warned, adding that the increasing radicalization of migrants at the border is being driven by terrorist organizations.

❗️@PM_ViktorOrban at Kossuth Radio: Brussels’ leadership is straying from the EU’s core goals of peace and prosperity, with issues like war, economic struggles, and poor decisions on migration and Ukraine. They’re serving global elites, not European citizens. Urgent reform is… pic.twitter.com/dL3jUdPb1e

— Zoltan Kovacs (@zoltanspox) November 10, 2023

He blamed bad leadership in Brussels for threatening the bloc’s “core goals of peace and prosperity,” and called for “urgent reform,” which could be facilitated by a surge toward conservative values at the next European parliamentary elections.

“We do not want mini Gazas in the districts of Budapest,” Orbán insisted, stressing that once the European Union lets in migrants, they often cannot be thrown out, and the newcomers form ghettos within existing communities, which leads to social disintegration.

He questioned how liberal elites could still remain in favor of mass migration and called for national unity on the issue in Hungary.

…

Read more here…

Authored John J. Waters via RealClearWire.com, (emphasis ours)

The following is an excerpt from River City One: A Novel (Knox Press; November 7, 2023).

I’m laughing now because I can still see him. He’s got his helmet on, the chinstrap dangling and tobacco spit coming off his lip. I tell you the right side of his face was blown up like a puffer fish. He kept himself grungy, so unclean that you’d think not even the bad guys would touch him. Maybe that’s why I liked him being nearby, because I thought it would keep me safe or something.

I was walking fourth in line that day and one place ahead of West, who was smack in the middle. “You’re in my world today, Sir—you know the drill.” He was the guy everybody wanted in charge of the patrol, so I did as he said.

We set off single file, like a group of schoolchildren walking across the playground, one right after another. It had rained the night before so the ground was thick with mud. It felt like I was walking through peanut butter, every step sucking at the bottoms of my boots. The point man had the metal detector stuck out in front of him, waving it back and forth like a flashlight in the dark. We only walked where the metal detector allowed us, each man planting his foot into the footprint of the man in front of him and that was how it worked: one footprint at a time, hoping the ground wouldn’t give out from underneath.

I can’t remember what I was thinking about before it happened. The weight of my pack, maybe, how it felt like carrying a limp body on my shoulders, that’s how heavy the gear felt. I wasn’t thinking about fighting. I was uncomfortable but not afraid. “Keep up, Sir. Speed is the name of this game,” was the last thing West said.

We crested the hill and were approaching the plateau.

Halfway to the center, there was a flash of white light, then heat, a wave of fire that burned the hair off the back of my neck. I felt something kick the side of my head and then, all of a sudden, I’m sitting on the ground. I feel the force of the blast on every part of my body, like a punch to the head and ribs at the same time. One second passes. My first thought is, “I’m dead.” Another second passes. I hear rocks and debris, clumps of mud splattering onto the ground around me. The air is reddish brown, a fog, like I’m inside a filthy cloud, picking wet mud out of the inside of my nose and spitting it from my mouth. More seconds pass. My conscious self slams back inside my head and I realize for the first time that I’m alive. I have memory. I remember I was walking, that I’m with my team and we’re near the end but we’ve been hit by something. More time passes. My ears are ringing and I notice that my head hurts, like I haven’t had a cup of coffee for the first time in months, and the ache is enough to make me stretch my forehead and close my eyes. A doctor told me later that the blast from twenty pounds of explosives shattered my eardrum, but for now, I’m just drifting in and out of focus. I hear voices, the sounds coming from a tunnel, inside a shaft. They’re getting louder as the sound expands, but still I’m staring into the fog and seeing nothing until I turn to see what’s going on behind me.

“I’m good!” I scream at the outline of a figure, sweeping my hands over my legs and in front of my face, then my chest. “I’m okay,” I whisper to myself. I made it. I look behind me and finally see the image of someone emerging through the fog. “Hey, buddy. I made it,” I call out. He’s quiet, just sitting there. His back is stiff and perfectly upright, like he’s just chilling, and I think to myself, “Hell of a time to sit around, isn’t it?” He’s holding something in his hands—a helmet turned upside down like a bowl with a bootlace hanging out of it, and it’s odd. I push myself to my feet so that I can stand above him and then I understand. West isn’t sitting. His upper body is planted in the mud, like he’s sprouting up out of the dirt, right up from his ass, and there’s something black and red tucked inside the boot he’s cradling in his helmet. I keep staring at the boot in his hands.

“My mind flips back to something I heard. “Sir, my orthotics don’t fit these issue boots, so I’m gonna need to buy a special pair. Check out this sweet-ass pair of boots.” The only dude in the platoon with boots that looked like Air Jordans. It’s his left foot he’s holding in that helmet, the tan leather is a dark red color, but otherwise in perfect condition. The toe box and throat of the boot are plump. The laces are tied.

He couldn’t have been more than five feet away. I dream about it sometimes at night, reaching for his tourniquet off the front right shoulder of his plate carrier, fingers dancing across the stub of his right thigh before I rip my own tourniquet off my plate carrier, fastening it across what little is left of his left leg, doing what I can to stop the bleeding. I do it right every time in my dream, but it didn’t happen like that. Seconds passed and I didn’t move. More seconds passed and I couldn’t move. Eventually, the lead man in the column is there in front of me, giving the aid I’d plotted out in my head but hadn’t been able to deliver.

Have you ever had that dream where you’re playing a basketball game and you steal the ball? There’s nothing but open court between me and the basket. Not a single defender stands in my way. Sometimes my legs are rubber, other nights they’re wood. He bled out on the helicopter, arteries sliced just as clean as cut grass is what the medic told us, said it was a “victim-operated IED.”

Victim-operated, like West had decided to kill himself when he stepped on the pressure plate, when he stepped into my footprints.

We both stepped on the plate. Only West was able to operate the bomb that killed him.

John J. Waters graduated from the U.S. Naval Academy. He served in the Marine Corps on deployments to Afghanistan and Iraq. He lives with his family in Nebraska, where he was born.

The recent conflict between Hamas and Israel has brought the Gaza Strip, and the partially recognized State of Palestine, prominently into the focus of the global news cycle.

In the graphic below, Visual Capitalist’s Bruno Venditti uses Wikipedia data to map the countries that currently recognize Palestine as a state and those that don’t.

55 Countries Do Not Recognize Palestine

On November 15, 1988, the State of Palestine was officially proclaimed by the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) coalition. The state claimed sovereignty of the Gaza Strip, the West Bank, and East Jerusalem.

As of November 2023, 138 of the 193 UN members (72%) recognize the State of Palestine.

Here are the 55 countries that don’t recognize Palestine:

Many of the world’s Western countries, including the entire G7, do not recognize Palestine. Instead, many maintain informal diplomatic relations.

In contrast, emerging major economies like those within BRICS and other G20 nations, including Argentina, Indonesia, Türkiye, and Saudi Arabia, officially recognize the state.

In 2012, the State of Palestine was also upgraded by the UN to become a non-member observer state, a status shared only by the Holy See of Vatican City.

Hamas and the Gaza Strip

Officially, the United Nations recognizes the PLO as the governing entity in the West Bank (including East Jerusalem) and the Gaza Strip, both of which fell under Israeli control following the 1967 Six-Day War.

After the Oslo Accords were signed by Israel and the PLO in the mid 1990s, the PLO gained control over the Gaza Strip and 40% of the West Bank through the newly-created Palestinian Authority administration.

However, following a 2007 military conflict between rival Palestinian factions Fatah (the majority party of the PLO) and Hamas (a militant political party separate from the PLO), the Gaza Strip has been governed by Hamas.

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The recognition of Israel’s sovereignty has remained a dynamic and intricate issue since its establishment in 1948.

In the graphic below, Visual Capitalist’s Bruno Venditti uses Wikipedia data to map the countries that currently recognize Israel as a state and those that don’t.

29 Countries Do Not Recognize Israel

As of November 2023, 164 of the 193 UN members recognize Israel as a state, including all G7 countries. Even the State of Palestine recognized Israel as part of the Oslo Accords in 1993.

Here are the 29 countries that don’t recognize Israel:

With the exception of four countries—Bolivia, Cuba, North Korea, Venezuela—the countries that do not recognize Israel are predominantly Muslim.

Iraq, Lebanon, and Syria have never recognized Israel and technically remain in a state of war with the country. Iran also doesn’t recognize Israel, but actually had relations with the country in the past before severing all ties following the 1979 Iranian Revolution.

Likewise, Cuba recognized Israel in 1949, but reversed its position in 1973 and actively supported Egypt and Syria against it during that year’s Yom Kippur War.

On the other hand, some Muslim-majority countries including Egypt, Jordan, and the UAE, have gradually normalized with the country.

Effects of the Israel-Hamas War

Relations between Israel and other countries are often strained when it engages in military conflicts, especially in the Gaza Strip.

In some cases those relations have broken completely. Venezuela broke all diplomatic ties with Israel during the 2008–2009 Israel–Gaza conflict. More recently, Bolivia cut official ties with Israel over the ongoing Israel-Hamas War.

As of November 2023, 85% of UN members recognized Israel as a country, compared to 72% for the State of Palestine.