Authored by Jill McLaughlin via The Epoch Times,

A 69-year-old man demonstrating in support of Israel has died after sustaining a head injury during a fight with a pro-Palestinian protester during a rally on Nov. 5 in Thousand Oaks, about 40 miles northwest of Los Angeles.

The Ventura County medical examiner has ruled Paul Kessler’s death a homicide, and the county sheriff’s office has not ruled out a hate crime. Mr. Kessler was Jewish, according to the Jewish Federation of Greater Los Angeles.

Officials say Mr. Kessler was attending the rally Sunday afternoon when he became involved in an altercation with a counter-protester who was demonstrating nearby at a pro-Palestinian event.

The incident happened at the intersection of Westlake Boulevard and Thousand Oaks Boulevard in Ventura County.

The Ventura County Sheriff’s Office responded to the altercation after several citizens called 9-1-1 to report a battery at about 3:20 p.m.

Deputies arrived to find Mr. Kessler suffering from a head injury. Witnesses told police he fell backwards during the fight and struck his head on the ground. He was taken to an area hospital for treatment but succumbed to his injuries Monday, the sheriff’s office reported.

The Ventura County Medical Examiner’s Office determined Mr. Kessler died from blunt-force head injury, according to the sheriff’s office.

The sheriff’s office is continuing to investigate the incident. Anyone who witnessed or has information about the incident, or who was at the demonstration, is encouraged to contact the sheriff’s department. The department has scheduled a press conference for Tuesday morning.

The Jewish Federation of Greater Los Angeles was devastated by the news, according to a statement issued by the group Monday evening. The group reported Mr. Kessler was struck in the head by a megaphone.

“We are devastated to learn of the tragic death of an elderly Jewish man who was struck in the head by a megaphone wielded by a pro-Palestinian protestor in Westlake Village,” the federation said on X, formerly Twitter.

“Our hearts are with the family of the victim. While we wait for more information from our law enforcement partners, we remind you that this is the fourth major antisemitic crime committed in Los Angeles this year alone.”

“Violence against our people has no place in civilized society,” the federation added. “We demand safety. We will not tolerate violence against our community. We will do everything in our power to prevent it.”

US stocks were set to snap a six-day rally on Tuesday as traders reassessed expectations of Fed interest-rate policy after hawkish comments Monday by Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari dampened hopes of speedy interest rate cuts from the US central bank. Kashkari is back today for round two; Indeed, traders appear to be awaiting more from Fed officials on the rate path outlook following Kashkari’s comments, with Fed Chair Jerome Powell also set to speak later in the week, but first we have to get through today’s calendar:

• 07:30: Kashkari
• 08:00: Goolsbee
• 09:15: Barr
• 09:50: Schmid
• 10:00: Waller
• 12:00: Williams
• 13:25: Logan

As of 7:50am, S&P 500 futures are down 0.3% to 4372 with Nasdaq futures dropping by the same amount, while Europe’s Stoxx 600 index posted a similar loss.

Commodities ex-base metals/natgas are weaker while WTI slides under $80 for the first time in 2 months despite a war raging in the middle east. Today’s Macro data is primarily focused on consumer credit, the 7 Fed speakers, and the 3Y auction at 1pm. MegaCap Tech names are weaker premarket; here are some of the most notable premarket movers:

• Alteryx shares rise 17% after the software company reported better-than-expected results, providing relief following last quarter’s disappointing revenue forecast. Analysts said that the firm’s execution improved, showing some resilience against a tough backdrop and prompting some price target hikes.
• Coherus Bio shares tumble 18% as the biotech company cut its net product revenue and combined R&D and SG&A expenses forecast for the full year.
• DigitalOcean Holdings shares gain 8.2% as Goldman Sachs double-upgrades its rating on the cloud computing firm to buy, saying in note that cyclical risks appear to be priced in.
• Hims & Hers Health shares jump 7.0% after reporting third-quarter revenue that beat estimates and boosting its adjusted Ebitda guidance for the full year ahead of expectations. Analysts saw the results as strong, highlighting the execution of management.
• RingCentral shares rise 9.7% after the communications software provider narrowed its software subscription revenue guidance for the full year and reported what analysts said was a strong set of results, boosting hopes of further growth.
• TransMedics Group shares climb 37% after the organ transplant company boosted its sales forecast for the full year. The health-care firm also reported third-quarter revenue that exceeded the average analyst estimates.
• TripAdvisor shares jump 11% after the online travel company reported third-quarter adjusted earnings per share and revenue that came ahead of estimates. Analysts said the results were better than expected, highlighting the performance of TripAdvisor Core and Viator.
• Ventyx Biosciences shares drop 73%, set for a record fall, after the biotech said it’s terminating its Phase 2 trial of VTX958 in plaque psoriasis and psoriatic arthritis as efficacy results did not meet the internal target to support further development. The update prompted a downgrade from Wells Fargo, with the broker saying that its thesis on the stock is “busted.”
• Vimeo shares rise as much as 14% in premarket trading after the video software company reported better-than-expected 3Q revenue and boosted its adjusted Ebitda guidance for the full year
• Clover Health shares fall as much as 19% in premarket trading on Tuesday after reporting third quarter revenue that missed the average analyst estimate.

Kashkari, speaking in an interview on Fox News on Monday, said it’s too soon to declare victory over inflation. He added that while there have been three months of promising data on inflation, it isn’t enough.

“The Kashkari comment has injected a sense of reality back into the market, which had got carried away thinking that policy easing was just around the corner,” said Stuart Cole, head macro economist at brokerage Equiti Capital.

Meanwhile, bond markets rallied, led by the UK, as Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill hinted rate cuts may be on the table by the middle of 2024 and German industrial output figures suggested that recession isn’t far off. Two-year gilt yields fell 10 basis points to 4.6% and the rate on 10-year Treasuries slid five basis points to 4.59%.

European stocks are lower, with the Stoxx 600 falling 0.2%. Among individual stock movers, oil producers dragged down European equity benchmarks, with Shell Plc and BP Plc sliding more than 1%. UBS gained as much as 5%, most in two months, as the Swiss bank’s third-quarter results were “messy” yet better than expected as expenses were lower, according to analysts. Here are some of the other notable European movers:

• Engie shares gain as much as 2.4% after the French utility company raised its full-year guidance and reaffirmed its dividend policy. Morgan Stanley sees 7% upside to current consensus estimates for 2023 net income
• Associated British Foods shares rise as much as 7%, reaching the highest since July 2021, after reporting full-year adjusted operating profit that beat estimates and announcing an additional £500 million buyback
• NatWest Group rises as much as 2.3% and is among the biggest gainers on the Stoxx 600 banks index on Tuesday after BNP Paribas Exane double-upgrades its rating on the UK lender to outperform from underperform
• Nexi shares jump as much as 4.4% on Tuesday after newspaper MF reported the Canada Pension Plan and Francisco Partners are among firms that may be interested in the payments company. It didn’t say where it obtained the information
• Watches of Switzerland shares jump as much as 15%, the biggest intraday gain since Sept. 25, after the luxury watch retailer reported second-quarter results that analysts said showed resilience in a tough macroeconomic environment
• Poste Italiane shares gain as much as 2.3%, the most intraday since Oct. 10, after the company boosted its full-year Ebit guidance and released what Morgan Stanley called a strong set of third-quarter results
• Daimler Truck shares fall as much as 4.8% to their lowest intraday since June after the German commercial vehicle maker’s third-quarter Ebit showed the impact of supply-chain bottlenecks and missed estimates, says Citi
• Demant shares drop as much as 8.7%, the most in a year and dragging peer GN Store Nord lower, after the Danish hearing-aid maker reported third-quarter sales that missed expectations and narrowed its organic revenue forecast for the year
• RS Group shares fall as much as 19% after a tough first half as weakness in electronics weighs on the industrial and electronic products distributor sales, according to analysts
• OCI slumps as much as 5.8% after the Dutch fertilizer maker’s third-quarter results saw a big miss on adjusted Ebitda. There could be double-digit downgrades to full-year Ebitda numbers, Morgan Stanley says
• The Restaurant Group shares fall as much as 3.3% after Wheel Topco, the owner of Pizza Express, said it won’t make an offer for the owner of Wagamama due to “market conditions”

Earlier in the session, Asian equities declined, halting their best four-day advance since November 2022, with Chinese and Korean stocks leading the selloff in the region: South Korea’s Kospi Index lost 2.3% after Monday’s rally that was triggered by a short-selling ban, while Australia resumed policy tightening and raised its inflation forecast, a sign that central banks are not necessarily done hiking interest rates.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell as much as 1.3%, its biggest drop since Oct. 26, with POSCO, Alibaba and AIA Group among the top laggards. Korean stocks were headed for their worst day in more than a year on profit-taking after a ban on short-selling triggered their biggest rally since March 2020 on Monday. Chinese shares also declined after data showed that exports unexpectedly deepened in October, underscoring the country’s fragile economic recovery. A gauge of technology stocks in Hong Kong fell the most in a week.

• Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp opened lower amid the broader market mood. Muted price action was seen after the narrower-than-expected October Chinese Trade Balance, although imports saw surprise growth, while China Vanke’s shares firmed after state shareholders showed signs of providing liquidity support.
• Australia’s ASX 200 saw its downside led by Financials, Energy, and Materials, although the index clambered off worst levels following the RBA’s dovish hike.
• Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell back under 32,500 as the index conforms to the losses across the region.
• Indian stocks ended a three-day rally to end flat amid declines in Asia and European markets. The S&P BSE Sensex settled at 64,942.40, erasing an intraday loss off 0.5%. The NSE Nifty 50 Index also ended flat at 19,406.70. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slid as much as 1.4%, ending a four-day winning run that was the longest since October 12.

Asian equities started November with gains after three successive months of decline over hopes that the higher-for-longer interest rates narrative may be fading. Still, sentiment has slightly soured amid fresh doubts over the Fed’s policy path and as Australia resumed its interest rate hikes after stronger than expected inflation data. “Following the stellar rallies across the region yesterday, indexes are giving back some of their gains, with a recovery in bond yields and a firmer US dollar to start the week,” said Jun Rong Yeap, market analyst at IG Asia Pte.

In FX the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is up 0.2%. The Aussie is the weakest of the G-10 currencies, falling 1% versus the greenback after the RBA signaled a higher hurdle to further policy tightening.

In rates, Treasuries rose along with the dollar, ahead of a flurry of Fed speakers later on Tuesday and following wider gains across European rates. 10Y TSY are trading at 4.625% down 2bps from yesterday’s close. Gilts in particular underwent a sharp bull-steepening after Bank of England chief economist Huw Pill said there will be a “sharp further fall” in inflation for October and hinted that interest rates could be cut by the middle of next year.  Adding to the upward pressure on UK bonds, market research firm Kantar reported UK grocery price inflation slowed to single digits for the first time in 16 months. UK two-year yields fall 10bps to 4.62%.

The US session includes at least seven Fed officials scheduled to speak and $48b 3-year note sale at 1pm New York time. US are yields richer by less than 2bp across the curve with gains led by belly, steepening 5s30s spread by around 1bp on the day; gilts lead gains across core European rates with 2-year sector richer by 10bp on the day into early US session, while in 10-year sector gilts outperform Treasuries by 4.5bp.

In commodities, West Texas Intermediate crude dropped below $80 a barrel for the first time in more than two months. WTI fell 2% to trade near $79.20. Spot gold falls 0.5%.

Looking to the day ahead now, data releases include German industrial production, Euro Area PPI, and the US trade balance for September. From central banks, we’ll hear from the Fed’s Barr, Schmid, Waller, Williams and Logan, along with the ECB’s Nagel. Finally in the political sphere, the King’s speech is taking place in the UK, where the government outlines its legislative agenda for the next parliamentary session. In the US, there are also 2 gubernatorial elections taking place today in Kentucky and Mississippi.

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 futures down 0.3% to 4,373.00
• MXAP down 1.3% to 157.64
• MXAPJ down 1.2% to 493.63
• Nikkei down 1.3% to 32,271.82
• Topix down 1.2% to 2,332.91
• Hang Seng Index down 1.6% to 17,670.16
• Shanghai Composite little changed at 3,057.27
• Sensex little changed at 64,907.46
• Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.3% to 6,977.07
• Kospi down 2.3% to 2,443.96
• STOXX Europe 600 down 0.2% to 442.82
• German 10Y yield little changed at 2.71%
• Euro down 0.2% to $1.0694
• Brent Futures down 2.1% to $83.38/bbl
• Gold spot down 0.5% to $1,967.78
• U.S. Dollar Index up 0.29% to 105.52

Top Overnight News

• RBA hiked rates by 25bp to 4.35% (market expectations were close to 50/50 about whether they would move at this meeting) although the accompanying language evolved in a dovish fashion. RTRS  
• China’s exports fall short of expectations in Oct, coming in -6.4% Y/Y (vs. the Street estimate of -3.5%), although imports were a bit better (+3% vs. the Street -5%). RTRS
• Tumbling pork prices could push China back into deflation this week, as the largest listed hog farmers flood the domestic market and complicate Beijing’s efforts to bolster confidence in the world’s second-largest economy. FT
• China steps in to provide support to stressed developer Vanke, with Shenzhen Metro, a state-owned enterprise, vowing to provide full support to the company. WSJ
• German industrial production for Sept comes in cooler than anticipated (-1.4% M/M vs. the Street’s -0.1% forecast). BBG
• The BOE might wait until the middle of next year before cutting interest rates from their current 15-year high, the BoE’s Chief Economist Huw Pill said on Monday. Pill said pricing in financial markets – that currently points to a first rate cut to Bank Rate in August 2024 – “doesn’t seem totally unreasonable, at least to me.” RTRS
• UBS shares climbed as stronger-than-expected client inflows and progress in cost savings overshadowed its first quarterly loss in six years. Sergio Ermotti said Credit Suisse has stabilized though remains structurally unprofitable, while demand for UBS debt is strong. BBG
• The UN reported the reopening of the crossing between Gaza and Egypt. Benjamin Netanyahu said he sees his country having security control over Gaza for an “indefinite period.” BBG
• James Gorman signaled he plans to step down as Morgan Stanley’s chairman by the end of 2024 as he prepares to vacate his CEO post this year. He pushed back on the notion of entering politics, saying, “I don’t like sharks.” BBG

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

Asia-Pac stocks were softer across the board following the prior day’s gains and the choppy/mixed lead from Wall Street. South Korea’s KOSPI is the notable underperformer – slumping over 2.8% – after surging yesterday on the back of the stock short-selling ban. ASX 200 saw its downside led by Financials, Energy, and Materials, although the index clambered off worst levels following the RBA’s dovish hike. Nikkei 225 fell back under 32,500 as the index conforms to the losses across the region. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp opened lower amid the broader market mood. Muted price action was seen after the narrower-than-expected October Chinese Trade Balance, although imports saw surprise growth, while China Vanke’s shares firmed after state shareholders showed signs of providing liquidity support.

Top Asian News

• RBA hikes its Cash Rate by 25bps as expected to 4.35% from 4.10%, and tweaked its forward guidance to say “Whether further tightening of monetary policy is required…will depend upon the data” (prev. “Some further tightening of monetary policy may be required”). The RBA also noted inflation in Australia has passed its peak but is still too high and is proving more persistent than expected a few months ago.
• China’s Commerce Ministry has issued new rules to strengthen management of rare earth exports, effective Oct 31 2023 to Oct 31, 2025; issued new rules to strengthen import management of crude oil, iron ore, copper concentrate, potash, according to Reuters.
• PBoC Deputy Governor said he is not too worried about the Chinese economy, and added the overall debt level of the Chinese government is in the mid to lower range by international standards, according to Reuters.
• PBoC injected CNY 353bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate at 1.80% for a CNY 259bln net daily drain.
• Japan ruling ally Kometo tax chief says should not pre-decide to limit income tax cuts to just a year, according to Reuters.
• South Korean Vice Finance Minister says FX authorities will continue to monitor currency markets as done now even after rule changes in licenses, according to Reuters.
• IMF upgrades China’s GDP Growth forecasts: 2023 5.4% (prev. 5%), 2024 4.6% (prev. 4.2%); follows strong Q3 and growth policies.

European bourses are in the red, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.2%, but have been fairly contained throughout the morning with specific catalysts light and the tone thus far largely emanating from APAC pressure. Sectors are mixed with outperformance in Retail names post-AB Foods while Banks derive support from UBS despite yield pressure; in M&A Telefonica’s offer to purchase the remainder of Telefonica Deutschland has led to gains of circa. 40% for the German telecom name. Stateside, futures are in the red printing broad-based losses in a continuation of Monday’s/APAC risk tone, ES -0.2%, docket today features notable data incl. Manheim and numerous Fed speakers before a handful of earnings.

Top European News

• ECB’s de Guindos says low growth or economic standstill is expected to carry on into Q4 for the Eurozone.
• Telefonica Seeks 28% in German Unit for About €2 Billion
• UBS Seeks to Get Rid of $5 Billion in Rich Clients’ Assets
• Sunak Aims to Trap Labour With Election-Geared King’s Speech
• Aldi and Lidl Are Now Just as Middle Class as Other UK Grocers

FX

• Aussie retreats as risk aversion and less hawkish RBA guidance outweigh the widely anticipated 25bp hike, AUD/USD closer to 0.6400 than 0.6500, AUD/NZD cross sub-1.0850 from just under 1.0900.
• Buck maintains recovery momentum almost across the board as DXY climbs to 105.63 from a 105.25 low awaiting US trade data and a slew of Fed speakers.
• Euro losing grip of 1.0700 handle, Pound probes 1.2300 and Yen back below 150.00 all over again.
• Loonie undermined by a slide in oil ahead of Canadian trade with USD/CAD closer towards the top of 1.3755-1.3691 range.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1776 vs exp. 7.2854 (prev. 7.1780)
• BCB Minutes: It was decided to maintain the recent communication, which already includes the appropriate conditionality in an uncertain environment; rate cuts of 50bps are appropriate to keep the necessary contractionary monetary policy for the disinflationary process.

Fixed Income

• Debt futures resurgent after further retracement and curves revert to a flatter trajectory ahead of US refunding.
• Bunds bounce from 129.35 to 130.20 and Gilts from 94.47 to 95.42 in the wake of solid demand for 2034 UK issuance.
• T-note back on 108-00 handle within 107-19+/108-03+ range.

Commodities

• Crude benchmarks remain under pressure after slipping during APAC trade in-fitting with the broader risk tone and have been unable to stage any form of recovery this morning, despite equity performance being much more contained in comparison.
• WTI Dec’23 and Brent Jan’23 lose the USD 80/bbl and USD 84/bbl handles respectively, an action which pushes the benchmarks to multi-month lows with support seen around USD 78/bbl mark in WTI from late-August.
• Metals feature marked pressure in spot gold with the stronger USD offsetting any potential haven demand that may typically have been expected from the current tone, a tone which is weighing on base metal peers.
• US DoE announced a supplemental solicitation for up to 3mln barrels of oil for delivery in January 2024 for US Strategic Reserve.
• OPEC Secretary General says oil demand continues to rise significantly; Oil demand to grow more than 2mln BPD in 2024.

Geopolitics

• Israeli PM Netanyahu says Israel is open to “short pauses” in Gaza, but ruled out a ceasefire, according to Bloomberg.
• The Biden administration is reportedly planning a USD 320mln transfer of precision bombs for Israel, according to WSJ.
• Russian Defence Ministry says Russia destroyed 17 Ukraine-launched drones over Russian territory, according to RIA.

US Event Calendar

• 08:30: Sept. Trade Balance, est. -$59.8b, prior -$58.3b
• 15:00: Sept. Consumer Credit, est. $9.5b, prior -$15.6b

Central Banks

• 07:30: Fed’s Kashkari Speaks on Bloomberg Television
• 08:00: Fed’s Goolsbee Speaks on CNBC
• 09:15: Fed’s Barr Speaks on Financial Technology
• 09:50: Fed’s Schmid Speaks at Dallas/Kansas City Energy Conference
• 10:00: Fed’s Waller Speaks at St. Louis Fed Conference
• 12:00: Fed’s Williams Moderates Discussion in New York
• 13:25: Fed’s Logan Participates in Moderated Discussion

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Just when you thought it was safe to go back into the water and hoover up every bond in sight, yesterday saw yields do yet another 180 degree turn, something we’ve been used to seeing in recent weeks, even if last three days of last week was one way traffic. 2yr US yields led the way (+9.6bps). T he S&P 500 managed to eke out a narrow gain (+0.18%) but US small caps (Russell 2000 -1.29%) suffered again with higher rates.

Diving in, the bond selloff perhaps came as investors began to wonder if last week’s narrative about rate cuts was overdone. For instance, market pricing for the Fed now implies a 16% chance of another rate hike, up from 11% on Friday. Moreover, the rate priced in by the December 2024 meeting was up +12.4bps to 4.47%. So there was a clear, albeit partial unwinding of last week’s moves. After the market close, we heard from Minneapolis Fed Kashkari, one of the more hawkish FOMC voices, who said that “we need to let the data keep coming to us to see if we really have got the inflation genie back in the bottle”. So some pushback against declaring victory over inflation.

For markets, this is hardly the first time we’ve seen expectations of a dovish pivot, and Henry pointed out yesterday (link here) that this is at least the 7th time this cycle where markets have reacted notably in response to dovish speculation. Clearly rates aren’t going to keep going up forever, but on the previous 6 occasions we saw hopes for near-term rate cuts dashed every time. Note that we’ve still got above-target inflation in every G7 country. With that in mind, next week’s US CPI release will be an important factor on that front, and our US economists expect core CPI to remain at +0.3% for a third consecutive month .

In the latter half of the US session, we got the latest Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey (SLOOS) from the Fed, which looks at bank lending standards and has traditionally been a strong leading indicator for the economy more broadly. This showed some improvement in banks’ willingness to lend compared to the previous quarter’s lows, with the net balance of banks reporting tighter lending standards falling from 50.8 to 33.9 for commercial & industrial loans and from 71.7 to 64.9 for CRE loans. However, more banks reported tightening standards for mortgages, up from 13.8 to 16.0. So the general SLOOS improvement is welcome but most measures are still at levels usually associated with recessions. Can the SLOOS improve quickly enough over the next 2-3 quarters before the current tight lending standards cause an accident or a serious growth slowdown. We likely have a race against time.

In terms of the actual moves for bonds, 10yr Treasury yields ended the day up +7.1bps to 4.64%. Real yields drove the increase, with the 10yr real yield up +5.2bps to 2.23%, following its biggest weekly decline of 2023 so far last week. The sell-off was stronger at the front-end, with 2yr yields up +9.6bps to 4.94%. $24bn worth of corporate bond deals getting priced on Monday may have added upward pressure on yields. It’s worth highlighting that although the QRA was more positive last week, supply and QT is a regular part of life now and today kicks off a 3-day Treasury auction schedule with 3yr notes today, 10yr tomorrow and 30yr bonds on Thursday. So markets will still have to price these to sell over the coming months.

Meanwhile in Europe, the rises in yields were also significant, with those on 10yr bunds (+9.3bps), OATs (+10.2bps) and BTPs (+13.3bps) all moving higher. Indeed, for BTPs it was the joint largest daily rise in yields since July 6. However the front end rise was more contained with German, French and Italian 2yr yields up +3.9 bps, +3.2bps and +9.1bps respectively .

The bond moves were an obvious headwind to equities, but the S&P 500 (+0.18%) still managed to build on last week’s advance, with a 6th consecutive gain for the first time since June. However, this advance was a narrow one with only 31% of the S&P constituents up on the day. The biggest driver were tech mega caps, with the Magnificent Seven index up +0.87%, and the NASDAQ (+0.30%) rising for a 7th consecutive session for the first time since January. On the other hand, small-caps put in a very weak performance, with the Russell 2000 (-1.29%) losing ground after recording its strongest week since February 2021. As with bonds, the picture was a bit weaker in Europe, with losses for the STOXX 600 (-0.16%), the DAX (-0.35%) and the CAC 40 (-0.48%).

Asian equity markets have turned negative this morning following the softer markets yesterday. As I check my screens, the KOSPI (-3.07%) is sliding hard after posting its best session yesterday (+6.43%) since late March 2020 following the renewed ban on short selling over the weekend. Elsewhere, the Hang Seng (-1.50%), the Nikkei (-1.12%), the CSI (-0.68%) and the Shanghai Composite (-0.35%) are also retreating. Meanwhile, the S&P/ASX 200 (-0.15%) is also trading lower after the RBA increased its key interest rate by 25bps as expected (more on this below). S&P 500 (-0.21%) and NASDAQ 100 (-0.15%) futures are ticking lower. Treasury yields have fallen 0 to -1.5bps across the curve, led by the front end.

The latest trade data from China showed that exports declined for a 6th consecutive month, dropping -6.4% y/y, worse than Bloomberg’s estimate of a -3.5% drop and against a -6.2% drop in September. Imports surprisingly rebounded +3.0% y/y in October (v/s -5.0% expected) after a revised -6.3% drop the previous month. The resulting trade surplus amounted to $56.53 billion (v/s $82.0 billion expected).

Elsewhere, the RBA lifted its cash rate for the first time in five months (+25bps) to a 12-year high of 4.35% citing a slower-than-expected decline in inflation while still indicating that inflation would return to its target range of 2% to 3% in a reasonable timeframe. The Aussie dollar (-0.79%) dropped against the US dollar in response to the rate hike as the central bank’s statement failed to confirm the possibility of another hike in this cycle. Policy sensitive 3yr government bond yields fell -3.1 bps to 4.24% before slightly recovering, standing at 4.25% as I type.

Looking at yesterday’s data, there wasn’t too much but we did get some of the final PMI readings from Europe, where the main headlines were in line with the flash prints from a couple of weeks ago. For instance, the final Euro Area composite PMI was exactly in line with the flash reading at 47.8, and in Germany it was revised by only -0.1pts to 45.8. One source of concern was Italy, where the composite PMI fell -2.0pts to 47.0, its lowest in 12 months. Otherwise, the latest reading on German factory orders for September showed a +0.2% expansion (vs. -1.5% expected), but with this upside offset by a major downward revision to the previous month (+1.9% vs +3.9% previously). This still leaves German factory orders down -4.3% year-on-year.

To the day ahead now, and data releases include German industrial production, Euro Area PPI, and the US trade balance for September. From central banks, we’ll hear from the Fed’s Barr, Schmid, Waller, Williams and Logan, along with the ECB’s Nagel. Finally in the political sphere, the King’s speech is taking place in the UK, where the government outlines its legislative agenda for the next parliamentary session. In the US, there are also 2 gubernatorial elections taking place today in Kentucky and Mississippi.

By Tsvetana Paraskova of OilPrice.com,

The European oil and gas majors, which are also the world’s top LNG traders, reported a mixed bag of third-quarter results, with some beating or meeting estimates and others missing expectations amid diverging gas trading opportunities in Europe and Asia. 

Shell and TotalEnergies, the world’s largest and second-largest LNG traders, respectively, reported strong gas trading earnings thanks to the open arbitrage to Asian markets in the third quarter. But BP, another major with a typically strong gas trading business, saw weak results in the division between July and September, which dragged overall earnings below analyst estimates.  

The difference between BP, on one hand, and Shell and TotalEnergies, on the other hand, was that BP is more exposed to the European and U.S. markets where inventories were high while volatility was not.

Shell reported last week adjusted earnings of $6.224 billion for the third quarter, generally in line with expectations. The higher adjusted earnings and EBITDA for the third quarter compared to the second quarter reflected favorable trading and optimization results combined with higher realized liquids prices, offset by lower volumes. Shell had already said a month ago that it expects its third-quarter earnings to receive a boost from stronger trading results in its natural gas and products divisions compared to the second quarter.

“Shell delivered another quarter of strong operational and financial performance, capturing opportunities in volatile commodity markets,” Shell’s CEO Wael Sawan said in a statement.

TotalEnergies, for its part, reported a third-quarter net income above expectations, thanks to higher oil prices, strong trading, and stronger refining margins in the summer.

“The Asian buyers are back in the LNG business: today, the JKM is at TTF plus $2 to $3, which means that they are ready to buy. And today, most of the cargoes are going to Asia because the spot market is in favor of Asia,” TotalEnergies chief executive Patrick Pouyanné said on the earnings call, commenting on the natural gas prices in Europe and Asia and their differentials. 

“So you might have in this type of market, more call for LNG coming from Asia, so it puts an additional tension on this LNG market.”

While Shell and TotalEnergies benefited from the open arbitrage to the Asian market, BP said that its gas trading performance was weak in the third quarter. 

BP reported lower-than-forecast earnings for the third quarter as weak gas marketing and trading and a charge in offshore wind weighed on the results and couldn’t offset a strong oil trading business. 

“If you think back to the year, in the first quarter we had an exceptional performance, in the second quarter we had exceptional performance, and then in the third quarter – we’re calling it weak. That was really due to lack of structure in the market,” BP’s interim CEO Murray Auchincloss said on the earnings call. 

“So there was a little bit of volatility in the prompt, but the actual structure of the market as you looked out across multiple months wasn’t moving around.”

Auchincloss noted that “It’s just a situation where inventories are very full in Europe, inventories are quite full in the United States, and that just means there’s much less money to make on volatility.” 

With the bigger exposure to Europe’s gas market, BP’s trading was weaker than the similar divisions at Shell and TotalEnergies, which took full advantage of the return of Asian buyers and the open arbitrage this summer. 

Looking forward, BP’s Auchincloss said “volatility will tell” how the gas trading division would perform in the fourth quarter. 

“Weather will determine it, outages will determine it, and you know that our business is poised to do well when volatility occurs,” he said. 

It should not come as a shock to anyone that Russian President Vladimir Putin has decided to run again in Russia’s 2024 presidential election, according to a Reuters report on Monday which cited six anonymous sources, given especially the war (or rather, ‘special military operation’) that he authorized in Ukraine is still in full swing.

“The decision has been made — he will run,” one source was quoted in Reuters as saying. A 2024 run would mark his fifth term as president, and the legal path was paved when in 2020 the Russian population voted to overwhelmingly approve an overhaul to the national constitution. 

Assuming he would again win by a landslide, this means that 71-year old Putin could theoretically stay in power until 2036 (assuming two more back-to-back terms). He would be 83-years old that year.

In power since 2000, those prior changes to the law allow him to run for two more terms in the Kremlin once his current term ends in 2024. The law now in effect basically “resets” his number of terms already served, which considerably stretch all the way back to 2000 (excepting Dmitry Medvedev’s stint as president, 2008-2012). 

According to some key quotes in the new Reuters report:

As Moscow faces increased pressure from its protracted war in Ukraine and Western sanctions, “major change [in political leadership] would not be expedient,” one of Reuter’s sources said, adding that “Russia is facing the combined might of the West.”

“The world we look out upon is very dangerous,” said another source, who like the others was granted anonymity due to the sensitive nature of Kremlin politics.

An anonymous foreign diplomatic source said Putin’s announcement would come “soon.”

One early indicator of Putin’s intentions was on display all the way back in 2020, when he told reporters while discussing at that time the proposed constitutional changes, “I do not rule out the possibility of running for office, if this comes up in the Constitution. We’ll see.” He has also said at the time, “I have not decided anything for myself yet,” according to the prior state television interview statements.

Very likely, the Russian population will rally around desiring a ‘strong’ and ‘proven’ leader that can stand up to the West, and to Washington and NATO in particular, again especially given the proxy war nature of what’s happening in Ukraine. But it remains that among some sectors, the war is unpopular given reports of a huge Russian death toll. The numbers of young men coming back either in coffins or severely maimed from war has certainly had an impact among many common Russian families.

It’s been many years since Putin actually had any significant challengers who had major name recognition in Russia (even during Medvedev’s rule, Putin was seen as the ‘real power’ while in the prime minister’s role). The West would chalk this up to the Kremlin oppressing or locking up any political rivals or oppositionists (like Navalny, who never actually polled very high regardless) – while many Russians would see in Putin national unity and strength. 

Authored by Daniel Lacalle,

The Eurozone economy is more than weak. It is in deep contraction, and the data is staggering.

The Eurozone Manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI), compiled by S&P Global, fell to a three-month low of 43.1 in October, the sixteenth consecutive month of contraction. However, European analysts tend to ignore the manufacturing decline using the excuse that the services sector is larger and stronger than expected, but it is not. The Eurozone Composite PMI is also in deep contraction at 46.5, a 35-month low, and the services sector plummeted to recession territory at 47.8, a 32-month low.

Some analysts blame the energy crisis and the ECB rate hikes, but this makes no sense.

The eurozone should be outperforming the United States and China because the energy crisis reverted almost immediately. Between May 2022 and June 2023, all commodities, including natural gas, oil, and coal, as well as wheat, slumped and fell to pre-Ukraine war levels. A mild winter and the impact of monetary contraction created a strong stimulus that should have helped the eurozone, and there were no supply disruptions. In fact, the contribution of the external sector to GDP helped the area avoid a recession, as exports remained healthy while imports declined.

Blaming the eurozone recession on the ECB’s monetary policy is also unfair. The eurozone inflation is unacceptable, and, as the studies of Borio (BIS, 2023) and Congdon and Castañeda (2022) prove, inflation was caused by excessive money growth. Furthermore, the ECB’s monetary policy remains hugely accommodating. In fact, the misguided anti-fragmentation program continues to support the debt of fiscally irresponsible countries. The ECB’s balance sheet is more than 50% of the GDP of the euro area, compared to the Federal Reserve’s 30%.

Fiscal and monetary policy remain expansionary. Governments can spend at will, as the fiscal rules and limits have been suspended. Therefore, fiscal and monetary conditions are a Keynesian dream. There is more, because the much-trumpeted EU Next Generation Fund, a €750 billion stimulus package aimed at strengthening growth and productivity, is in full swing.

Now put all this together. Massive stimulus packages, deficit spending, accommodative monetary policy, and the external support of cheap natural gas and coal… And there is no growth. Blaming it on China’s slowdown is lazy. If eurozone growth was driven by exports to China, Germany would not have been on the verge of recession, with France and Italy delivering zero growth in 2019, for example. Furthermore, the poor growth of the eurozone between 2011 and 2019 coincided with a period of extraordinary expansion in China.

The problem of the eurozone is not China, rate hikes, or the Ukraine war. The curse of the eurozone is central planning. Subsidizing obsolete sectors and zombie firms, bloating government spending, and massively increasing taxes on the most productive sectors are driving away technology, industry, and high-productivity sectors. Government current spending is now the main component of GDP in countries like France or Belgium and is rising all over the eurozone. Implementation of politically imposed economic decisions has crippled euro area opportunities, and energy policy is a key area of stagnation in the economy. A misguided energy policy makes industry less competitive and the economy more vulnerable as power and natural gas prices for households and industries are significantly more expensive than in China or the U.S. due to the accumulation of taxes and regulatory burdens.

The ECB does not have to decide between inflation and growth. This is a false dilemma. There is plenty of growth without inflation in high-productivity economies. The problem is that European governments believe all their fiscal imbalances will be disguised by monetary policy and demand negative real rates and constant monetization of debt. Thus, the ECB will have to choose between stagnation and stagflation because governments are forcing it.

A man known as ‘The Sperminator’ has created an offshoot of the largest sperm donation group in the United States which only provides sperm from men who have refused to take the Covid shot.

Jonathan David Rinaldi (The Sperminator himself), was a frequent donor to a Facebook group called ‘Sperm Donation USA,’ however after noticing a “massive increase” in requests for unvaxxed sperm, he started his own splinter group, the Daily Mail reports.

Rinaldi’s group boasts nearly 250 members who have helped many people successfully start families, according to the report. Most members are offering their sperm for free.

Rinaldi, 44, is one of the millions of Americans who has been captured by the theory that the Covid vaccines somehow damage the reproductive system.

‘I don’t trust big government, big pharma, I don’t trust them, and I don’t need to inject myself with things that I don’t even know what it is,’ Mr Rinaldi told DailyMail.com.

Users of Mr Rinaldi’s group share this false idea, with posts linking the Covid shot to sperm death and other vaccine-related misinformation.

Cryos, one of America’s largest sperm bank, told DailyMail.com it has had ‘very few clients requesting information about unvaccinated donors.’

But anecdotally, DailyMail.com has seen new interest in unvaccinated sperm donors on Facebook groups in the US.

Women searching for ‘unvaccinated sperm donors’ specify ‘no Covid vax’ on their posts looking to find a baby-making partner. -Daily Mail

Men in the group identify themselves with descriptors such as “unvaccinated man (sperm not modified by mRNA).”

One recipient of said unvaxxed sperm posted a photo of her positive pregnancy test with the caption: “One more ‘farm-raised’, ‘not Pharma-raised’ baby on its way!”

According to Rinaldi, he began questioning vaccinations in general after having his own child.

“I’ve had no flu shots, no Covid shots. Nothing since I was a baby,” he said. “My best friend growing up was not vaccinated at all. And he is totally fine and healthy.”

“When I had my first child, I started reading the inserts and the ingredients. And when the school started saying my son had to have them… I really don’t like being told what to do by the government, so it made me think and do the opposite.”

More screenshots via the Daily Mail:

Rinaldi, who lives in Forest Hills, NY, first began donating sperm at the request of a lesbian friend. Now, he has three children with his ex-partner and has donated sperm to conceive another 16 more.

Authored by Eric Lundrum via American Greatness,

A new watchdog report reveals that the country of Afghanistan has received a staggering $11 billion in foreign aid from the United States since the country’s collapse in August of 2021.

As Breitbart reports, the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR), John Sopko, issued his report on Monday.

Sopko says that the U.S. and its allies have been sending “cash shipments” of about $80 million to Afghanistan “every 10-14 days” since the Taliban took over the country shortly before the withdrawal of all American forces.

Sopko said that the United Nations has assured him that all of the money has been “placed in designated U.N. accounts in a private bank,” and is not being “deposited in the central bank or provided to the Taliban.”

The U.N. Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) similarly claimed that all of the cash shipments are being “carefully monitored, audited, inspected, and vetted in accordance with U.N. financial rules and processes.”

Despite these claims, Sopko’s report noted that the Taliban has stolen foreign aid before, and has also been able to prevent the poorest elements of a foreign population from receiving aid that has been designated for them; some of the Taliban’s methods for stealing foreign aid include “siphoning cash from U.N. shipments, or collecting royalties, or charging fees on cash shipments.”

“The U.N., NGOs (non-governmental organizations), and other entities involved in aid efforts have paid administrative fees to various Taliban ministries, and these fees were recorded by the Taliban as inland revenue,” the SIGAR report continued.

The Biden Administration’s foreign aid decisions, particularly with regards to the Middle East, have come under greater scrutiny in recent weeks following the decision to give Iran $6 billion in exchange for the release of five American hostages; the subsequent mass terrorist attacks against Israel led many to speculate that Iran could have used some of that money to fund the attacks.

North Korea, formally known as the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, is a totalitarian dictatorship with extremely limited freedoms and rights reported for its citizens.

Due to the country’s tight controls on borders and information, people that want to leave the country often have to physically escape and are known as defectors.

These visuals from Visual Capitalist’s Mark Belan and Omri Wallach use data from the South Korea’s Ministry of Reunification to track the number of North Korean defectors who make it to South Korea each year, as well as international reporting to explain the dwindling numbers.

North Korean Defectors from 1998–2023

The table below shows the amount of successful North Korean defectors that arrived in South Korea from 1998 through to June of 2023. Note that there was no data available for 1999 and 2000.

From the 1990s to 2010, we can see the amount of North Korean defectors steadily climbing to a peak of 2,914 people in 2009 alone.

More residents looked to escape the country after suffering through the North Korean Famine of 1994 to 1998—with death estimates ranging from 240,000 to 3,500,000—as well as the country’s increasingly bleak economic conditions following the collapse of the neighboring Soviet Union.

We can also see the immediate impact of Kim Jung Un’s rise to power since 2012, with successful defections immediately dropping by 1,204 year-over-year and declining consistently over the next decade. Stronger border controls were one factor, as were improved relations with China and agreements with Russia on sending escapees back to North Korea.

And North Korea has seen defections drop further, from thousands to low hundreds, since 2020. Following the COVID-19 pandemic, the country shut down all borders, created new barriers, and significantly limited internal travel.

Mapping Escape Routes from North Korea

Since they can’t cross the heavily surveilled and militarized border to South Korea, the Korean Demilitarized Zone, North Korean defectors have to travel through Russia or China to get to friendly countries in order to seek asylum.

For most defectors, these include reaching Mongolia to the north or Cambodia, Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam to the south, which all work with the South Korean government on reunification.

There are also defectors that try to stay in Russia or China. In 2009, a global refugee survey found there were 11,000 North Korean refugees hiding in China close to the North Korea border alone, not accounting for the rest of the country.

Others are able to seek refuge in other countries and eventually attain citizenship. In 2022, the UNHCR registered 260 refugees and 127 asylees from North Korea, with Germany hosting the most at 96 and the U.S. second at 70.

Authored by Grzegorz Adamczyk via Remix News,

Polish conservatives have expressed their outrage over recent remarks from Germany’s former ambassador to Warsaw, Arndt Freytag von Loringhoven, who suggested in a German newspaper that German troops should be stationed in Poland permanently.

Source: TT@Amb_Niemiec, video picture grab

In an article published in the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, von Loringhoven waxed lyrical about a potentially liberal-led coalition government under Donald Tusk taking the reins in Poland, and expressed his hope that such an administration would repair the ailing relationship between Berlin and Warsaw.

The ambassador argued that it was time for Germany to come up with concrete proposals on issues such as the reconstruction of Ukraine, so that Poland and Germany could work together rather than confronting one another.

However, it was von Loringhoven’s suggestion that there was a need to integrate the German armed forces with those of Poland, including stationing German troops on a permanent basis in Poland to defend Europe, which raised hackles in Warsaw. 

Jacek Saryusz-Wolski, a senior conservative MEP for the governing Law and Justice (Pis) party, accused Germany of “pressing ahead” with such plans and insisted that these kinds of suggestions raise unfortunate associations. 

Jakieś skojarzenia ? pic.twitter.com/A30YZoA7fu

— Jacek Saryusz-Wolski (@JSaryuszWolski) November 5, 2023

Constitutional Court Justice Krystyna Pawłowicz went much further on social media.

She wrote that not long from now as a result of EU treaty changes, Germany will once again occupy Poland.

“This would be Hitler’s dream come true, this time without any resistance from Poles,” she posted.

Już niedługo,za sprawą nowego UE traktatu Niemcy znowu,
„NA TRWAŁE” zajmą sobie tereny Polski…Zachodniej ?
Sny Hitlera po latach,już bez użycia siły spełnią się
BEZ OPORU Polaków..
Większość wyborców w RP 🇵🇱niedawno,z radością oraz ze słowami „je..ć” i „nienawidzę” dała zgodę… pic.twitter.com/bvZgBtuXr6

— Krystyna Pawłowicz (@KrystPawlowicz) November 5, 2023

A liberal journalist from the Gazeta Wyborcza newspaper reminded that in January of this year, Polish President Andrzej Duda had agreed to the stationing of German troops on Polish territory as part of the placing of Patriot air defense systems in eastern Poland. Others have argued that German troops are part of NATO in the same way as Americans.

However, von Loringhoven was not suggesting a temporary location but a permanent presence.

…

Read more here…

Authored by Mohamad Hasan Sweidan, op-ed via The Cradle,

Global youth are smashing Israeli propaganda constructs to champion justice and humanity as they throw their support behind the armed struggle for Palestinian national liberation.

For years, there’s been a prevailing notion that the Palestinian cause is losing its grip on the younger generations. This perception stems from the belief that, as globalization tightens its hold, the youth in West Asia, particularly in occupied Palestine, might become more disconnected from their historical roots and national affiliations. 

With the spread of liberal ideas, many speculated that economic opportunities, technological advancements, and global exposure would shift their focus away from the Palestinian cause. Some even anticipated that the younger generation would turn against armed resistance to the Zionist occupation, owing to the small tide of Arab-Israeli normalization.

But recent events, especially the US-backed Israeli genocidal war against Gaza, have shown a different story. Three weeks of nonstop atrocities have rekindled the flame of Palestinian identity, ensuring that at least three generations stand united against the west’s ‘rules-based order’ and in support of any resistance against the occupation state.

Youth in West Asia

Prior to the Hamas-led Al-Aqsa Flood military operation on 7 October, many believed that young Arabs were leaning more toward normalizing relations with Israel, prioritizing economic prosperity over solidarity with the oppressed Palestinians. 

However, the stark contrast between Iranian-aligned Arab states, which struggle with sanctions and insecurity, and those Arab countries that have normalized relations and enjoy a better quality of life has made the youth question the old assumptions about resistance.

The role played by Arab youth after the events of 7 October has reinforced the need to confront Israel. Tel Aviv’s behaviors, rife with criminality, aggression, and lies, have embarrassed its Arab partners, and now challenge the narrative that sought to separate Hamas from the rest of the Palestinian population.

According to Pew Research Center’s generational divisions based on age, today’s younger generations can be categorized into two groups, and current children can be classified into a single category:

After the launch of Al-Aqsa Flood, the west attempted to frame the narrative around the specific event – leaving out historical context – sought to characterize Hamas as ISIS, and emphasized Israel’s “right to self-defense” against “terrorism.” Ironically, it has been Israel’s brutal actions that countered these efforts, leading to the deaths of over 8,525 Palestinians, including 3,542 children and over 2,000 women. 

This devastating toll was enough to label Israel as the real perpetrator of terrorism, and the images of innocent martyrs, especially children, became a powerful symbol in the defense of Palestinian rights.

Agents of change 

What’s truly remarkable is that the leaders of the new narratives are the youth of Generation Z, Y, and Alpha. Leveraging social media, and speaking directly to their peer groups, they conveyed the grievances of the Palestinian people to the world. Many had limited knowledge of Palestine, but their unfiltered sense of justice fueled their collective anger against Israel’s ongoing ethnic cleansing of Palestine.

Social media has also given rise to a new form of journalism, known as citizen journalism. Ordinary individuals on the ground have become frontline reporters, sharing live audio and video updates that effectively sideline mainstream news reporting. When traditional media fails to provide the full picture, platforms like X and Instagram became invaluable sources of information. For instance, during the first two days of the Gaza offensive, over 50 million posts flooded the X platform and provided real-time coverage of events on the ground.

On social media, the younger generation is playing a crucial role in raising awareness about the Palestinian cause, galvanizing people across the globe to mirror their outrage. Today, in many countries, populations are taking to the streets in protest, boycotting companies supporting Israel, and expressing their solidarity across a wide variety of social media platforms. 

Videos advocating for Palestinian rights appear in dozens of languages, reaching millions. Weeks after the aggression, hashtags like #فلسطين and #إسرائيل had billions of views on TikTok, leading the US to pressure Meta to ban influential accounts supporting the Palestinian cause.

Crucially, the scenes of Israeli brutality on social media have led to widespread, unprecedented criticism of the US, a key partner in Tel Aviv’s war plans, oddly, from Jewish American youth. Thousands of critical Jewish voices have emerged, condemning Washington’s policies. Instead of fading, the Palestinian cause is regaining momentum worldwide, defying the intentions of both Washington and Tel Aviv.

Influence on western youth

According to a recent poll published by the Daily Mail, only 40 percent of respondents between the ages of 18 and 29 have a negative view of the Palestinian resistance group Hamas. Despite Israel’s efforts to label Hamas as ISIS, more than half of young respondents do not share this view. The same poll indicates that 32 percent have a negative view of Israel instead, while only 24 percent have a positive outlook. Significantly, among young people, those with a negative view of Israel outnumber those with a positive view.

An Axios poll in the US reveals that less than half of young respondents (48 percent) believe that the country should support Israel. In contrast, this percentage rises significantly among older respondents, reaching 83 percent among those born between 1946 and 1964. Another poll by Generation Lab shows that 48 percent of US college students surveyed do not blame Hamas for the events of 7 October.

A Quinnipiac poll shows that 51 percent of voters under the age of 35 do not support sending weapons and military equipment to Israel in response to the Hamas operation, compared to 77 percent for those aged 50 or older.

Additionally, Harvard University’s Center for American Political Studies conducted a survey on the war in Palestine among respondents aged 18 to 24, with the following key findings:

• 47 percent believe that Hamas targeted the occupation army during Operation Al-Aqsa Flood and not civilians.

• 41 percent believe that Hamas fighters are military operatives and not terrorists.

• 48 percent side with Hamas and not with Israel. (This rises to 91 percent for those aged 55-64)

• Although 62 percent believe that Hamas’ actions are criminal, 52 percent believe that Hamas ‘ killing of 1,200 Israeli civilians can be justified because of the injustice inflicted on Palestinians.

• 46 percent believe that law firms should not refuse to hire law students who supported Hamas and attacks on Israeli civilians.

• 48 percent oppose the Biden administration’s policies toward Israel.

• 54 percent believe that Iran has nothing to do with the Hamas attack on 7 October.

• 59 percent believe that it was wrong for Israel to cut off electricity, water, and food to the Gaza Strip in order to retrieve its prisoners.

• Only 30 percent believe that the US should support Israel in the war on Gaza.

• 45 percent believe that Israel bombed the Baptist Hospital in the Gaza Strip.

• Only 24 percent believe that the US media reports events in Gaza in a fair manner.

• 60 percent believe that the US should not intervene militarily if Iran strikes Israel.

Commenting on these figures, Mark Penn, CEO of Stagwell and president of the Harris-Ball Foundation, says that “the war between Israel and Hamas is not an issue divided along party lines, but on the basis of age.” 

Rachel Janvaza, an expert on the political culture of the younger generation, suggests that “seniors are deeply traumatized by the generational divide, but this tension has been brewing on social media and in universities for a while – both of which play a very powerful role in how young people see the world.” Others disparage this development – Brad Polombo, in an article for Newsweek, opines: “Gen Z is not okay.” 

Recent events highlight the resilience of Palestinian youth in preserving their identity and defending their rights. They have leveraged innovative ways to keep the Palestinian narrative relevant globally, with youth solidarity in West Asia bringing Palestinian grievances to a worldwide audience via various social media platforms, in all languages. 

The impact of these events on the younger generation will likely continue to shape their views and influence future decisions, and today has the potential to affect international opinion and shift foreign policy.