Once a fundamental part of the American dream, the ability to own a home is drifting farther and farther away for many Americans.

But, as Visual Capitalist’s Pallavi Rao details below, between skyrocketing prices, stagnating wages, and now rising interest rates, the deck seems to be increasingly stacked against home ownership.

Using May 2023 data tabulated by Home Sweet Home, we map out the annual salary needed to afford a 30-year mortgage (at 6.37%) to buy a home in America’s 50 most populous metropolitan areas.

The monthly minimum mortgage payment includes taxes and insurance as well, and is capped at roughly one-third of the income. This analysis also assumes that the homeowner will put down a 20% down payment.

The Least and Most Affordable American Cities to Own a Home

At the top of the list, and at the very west of the country, San Jose is the least affordable city to own a home for the average American.

One would have to earn at least $374,000 a year to afford a $1.6 million dollar home in the city.

To put those numbers into perspective, the median American annual income is $75,000, about one-fifth what’s required to buy a home in San Jose.

Here’s a look at the annual earnings needed to afford a home in all 50 largest cities in the U.S., ranked from least to most affordable.

Other Californian cities, San Francisco (ranked 2nd), San Diego (3rd), and Los Angeles (4th) all require an annual income of at least $180,000 to attempt home ownership within their metropolitan boundaries.

Boston (ranked 6th) and New York (ranked 7th) represent unaffordability on the East Coast, both requiring at least $160,000 a year to buy homes there.

It’s not just the coasts that are expensive however. To buy a home in Denver (ranked 8th) and Salt Lake City (15th) means earning more than $120,000 a year.

However, cities in the Midwest and South, like Pittsburgh, Detroit, Oklahoma City, and Louisville, are far more affordable, requiring less than $63,000 a year to buy a home.

Interest Rates Rock Home Ownership Chances

Aside from the obvious price differences in housing markets, a key factor that has elevated income requirements across the board is the rapid rise in interest rates in the last year. In fact the average 30-year mortgage has pushed past 7%, the highest it’s been since the 2000s.

This means that while the median price of a house in San Jose has actually come down between 2022 and 2023, the minimum monthly payment has increased from $7,717 to $8,720 this year.

So to afford a median-priced home in the country, an American needs to earn closer to $100,000 a year, up from $75,500 in 2022. And even then, they would be priced out of owning a home in nearly half of the 50 largest cities in the country.

As a result Americans may yet further delay home ownership. Renting is now a far more attractive option, thanks to the biggest difference between rent and mortgages in over 50 years.

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

Illinois is paying over $206,000 per job for 2,600 jobs. The primary beneficiary is a Chinese company known for stealing technology.

Chinese Companies and Your Tax Dollars

Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker doles out $536 Million in tax credits and other incentives to lure Gotion, a battery firm that no other states wanted.

American taxpayers are now funding Chinese manufacturing, and the Illinois governor has waved away all questions about the new Chinese-owned battery company in the state.https://t.co/96dLn4E9eM

— Wall Street Journal Opinion (@WSJopinion) October 21, 2023

The Wall Street Journal comments on Chinese Companies and Your Tax Dollars

It isn’t easy luring corporations to Illinois these days, so Gov. J.B. Pritzker celebrated when the state landed a big electric-vehicle battery plant in September. The real winner, however, is Gotion, the Chinese company that is collecting taxpayer financing to subsidize its EV manufacturing.

Mr. Pritzker boasted that the new $2 billion factory would bring 2,600 green jobs to the Land of Lincoln and represents “the most significant new manufacturing investment in Illinois in decades.” The company’s decision was helped by a $536 million Illinois subsidy package, including $213 million in tax benefits, a 30-year property tax freeze and $125 million from the state-lending program Invest in Illinois.

In a Sept. 13 letter to Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, Reps. Mike Gallagher (R., Wis.) and John Moolenaar (R., Mich.) noted that Gotion “has direct ties to the CCP [Chinese Community Party] and state-owned financial institutions” and has been part of a Chinese program the FBI has flagged for “theft of trade secrets and economic espionage.”

That seems worth examining, but who will do it, if not Mr. Pritzker? The Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) has said Gotion’s projects don’t fall under its jurisdiction.

In January 2023, Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin turned away a Ford factory that was partnering with Chinese battery maker CATL, on the grounds that the company was a “Trojan horse” for Beijing. It set up in Michigan instead, but on Sept. 25, Ford said it paused the project until it was “confident about our ability to competitively operate the plant.”

Open for Business

Mr. Pritzker called Gotion’s arrival “the most recent proof that we are in a new paradigm. Illinois is on the rise, and we’re open for business.”

Open to leave is more like it. Numerous corporations are voting with their feet due to Illinois’ high-crime and high-tax reality.

TTX Joins Major Chicago Leaving Chicago

The Illinois Policy Institute reports TTX Joins Major Chicago Leaving Chicago

Freight railroad car company TTX is moving its headquarters from Chicago’s West Loop to North Carolina.

Last year major corporations such as Caterpillar, Citadel, Boeing and Tyson Foods announced relocations out of the Chicago area. Guggenheim Partners more quietly made moves to leave the city and join fellow investment firm Citadel in Miami.

Hoot of the Day

Illinois is paying over $206,000 per job created to a company the FBI has flagged for “theft of trade secrets and economic espionage.” And Governor Pritzker is bragging about it.

It’s “proof of a new paradigm,” said Pritzker. Indeed.

Chicago’s Problem is Crime, the Mayor’s Solution is City-Run Grocery Stores

In case you missed it, please see Chicago’s Problem is Crime, the Mayor’s Solution is City-Run Grocery Stores

If you are a store owner in Chicago suffering huge losses to theft or if you are an individual tired of the crime and piss poor public schools, I have a suggestion: leave.

But think about where your going. Leaving Chicago isn’t enough. I advise leaving the state.

Reserve your U-Haul well in advance. Recall that It Takes 3 Weeks to Escape Illinois, at least it did for us because all of the one-way U-Haul rentals were headed out.

Update(1845ET): Russia has weighed in strongly against the additional US warships recently sent by the Pentagon to the Middle East region, saying this heightened US presence only serves as a risk of “escalation” of the conflict in Gaza.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Monday during a meeting Tehran that “the more a state takes this kind of proactive measures, the greater the risk and the danger of an escalation of the conflict”. He called out Washington as “already among the countries intervening the most” since the October 7 Hamas terror attack. 

The same day, the Pentagon said it believes Iran-backed groups in the region are planning to ramp up attacks on US forces in the region. This came amid continuing sporadic drone and missile strikes against US bases in Syria and Iraq.  According to a fresh CNN report:

There are “red lights flashing everywhere,” a US official in the region told CNN.

Officials said that at this point, Iran appears to be encouraging the groups rather than explicitly directing them. One official said Iran is providing guidance to the militia groups that they will not be punished – by not getting resupplied with weaponry, for example – if they continue to attack US or Israeli targets.

On Monday, National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby said there is “a very direct connection between these groups” and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, and he said the US is “deeply concerned about the potential of any significant escalation of these attacks in the days ahead.”

Kirby added in his comments, “Iran’s goal is to maintain some plausible deniability here, but we are not going to allow them to do that.”

Meanwhile, yet more confusing statement and mixed signals from the US Commander-in-Chief at these crucial and dangerous moments…

🚨JUST IN: BIDEN MIXED MESSAGES ON GAZA CEASEFIRE

“Is the U.S. supporting the hostages for ceasefire deal?”

BIDEN: “We should have a ceasefire. Not a ceasefire. We should have those hostages released and then we can talk.” pic.twitter.com/3eqeQyQyPK

— Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal) October 23, 2023

And there was this strange moment during a press briefing Monday: 

🚨#BREAKING: President Joe Biden interrupts his speech, saying he needs to head to the situation room, and he states, “I have to go to the situation room. There’s an issue I need to deal with.” pic.twitter.com/YZOR1eSYi8

— R A W S A L E R T S (@rawsalerts) October 23, 2023

China also weighed in Monday, offering that it is willing to “do anything” to restore peace, but emphasized that “prospects are worrying” – according to China’s Middle East special envoy Zhai Jun. 

Below: Hamas released video of the two elderly women released from captivity today. The Israeli government has confirmed the handover, and they are now undergoing evaluation in a Tel Aviv hospital:

رفضت المحتجزة أن تترك مجاهدي كتائب القسام وتغادر قبل أن تحييهم. pic.twitter.com/9RF4Rq966c

— رضوان الأخرس (@rdooan) October 23, 2023

* * *

Update(0350ET): Hamas has announced the release of two more hostages, bringing the total numbered free since they were kidnapped Oct.7 to four. Al Jazeera is reporting, “The latest release of two Israeli captives from Gaza – both women – follows the release late last week of two US citizens.”

The newly freed women have been identified as 79-year old Nurit Cooper and 85-year old Yocheved Lifshitz.

Hamas has reportedly demanded fuel in release for more hostages, given electricity has been out across the strip, and fuel is needed to generate power locally. Israel has reportedly countered that all hostages must be freed for deliveries to be allowed into Gaza. This has predictably led to a breakdown in negotiations, which have been mediated by Qatar: 

* * * 

Update(1235ET): It has become clear at this point that Israel is stalling its ‘imminent’ ground invasion of Gaza in order to buy more time to negotiate for the release of hostages, now numbered at 222 in Hamas/PIJ captivity. As we detailed below, the White House is putting pressure on Tel Aviv to delay, also no doubt on fears that a full assault will trigger a war with Hezbollah in the north. From there, things could spin out of control, also with Russian, Iranian, and Chinese military assets positioned in the region in addition to an American carrier strike group.

The New York Times is reporting Monday morning that Hamas could be preparing to release 50 hostages with dual citizenship, amid negotiations mediated by Qatar:

The U.S. wants more time for hostage negotiations. On Friday, the U.S. secured the release of two American hostages, with Qatar’s help. Israel believes Hamas may release about 50 hostages who are citizens of another country as well as Israel, but a ground invasion could make hostage releases less likely.

According to more from the NY Times:

A senior Israeli military official said that based on conversations between the United States and Qatar, Hamas could possibly release about 50 dual nationals separate from any broader deal.

The repeated delays also reflect a growing tension between Mr. Netanyahu and Mr. Gallant, his defense minister, who supports a broad military operation that would also include Hezbollah, the powerful militia in Lebanon.

Al-Arabiya has separately issued a headline saying that the hostages will be released “within hours”.

مصادر العربية: أنباء عن تسليم حماس لعدد من الرهائن الأجانب خلال ساعات #العربية_عاجل

— العربية عاجل (@AlArabiya_Brk) October 23, 2023

If this major hostage release does materialize, it is likely to create conditions that stall an IDF ground invasion further.

* * *

The United Nations has revised its grim figure of the rising death toll from Israel’s bombardment of Gaza, saying that it has surpassed 5,000 as of Monday. It stands at 5,087. Separately, over 90 Palestinians have been killed in escalating West Bank violence, which over the weekend included Israel launching a rare airstrike on Jenin. Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) are still holding at least 222 Israeli and foreign captives – a number which has again been revised upward.

European Union foreign ministers are meanwhile gathered in Brussels for an urgent meeting to take up the contentious issue of a ceasefire. UN secretary-general Antonio Guterres has been calling on world bodies to back a ceasefire. In response, EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said, “Personally, I think that a humanitarian pause is needed in order to allow the humanitarian support to come in and be distributed, seeing that half of the population of Gaza has been moving from their houses.”

Bloomberg is reporting Monday morning that EU leaders are set to endorse a call for a “humanitarian pause”. “The European Council supports the call of UNSG (U.N. Secretary-General Antonio) Guterres for a humanitarian pause in order to allow for safe humanitarian access and aid to reach those in need,” a draft statement of the summit reads.

But Washington, Israel’s staunchest supporter, is not expected to back a ceasefire – despite reports President Biden has sought for Israel’s military delay the expected imminent ground invasion, in order to buy more time to negotiate the freedom of more hostages.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken in the Sunday news shows made this clear. Margaret Brennan, the host of CBS News’s “Face the Nation,” asked him, “UNICEF says 1,524 children have been killed in the Gaza Strip during these bombings. Why isn’t the US calling for at least a temporary ceasefire?“

Blinken then claimed that children dying on either side has hit him “right in the heart” – but he stopped short of directing any criticism at Israel’s indiscriminate and unrelenting bombing campaign. Instead, he defended it:

“Israel has to do everything it can to make sure this doesn’t happen again,” Blinken said in reference to October 7 Hamas cross-border attack. “Freezing things in place where they are now would allow Hamas to remain where it is and to repeat what it’s done some time in the future. No country could accept that.”

He then cited unverified reports that Hamas has actively blocked Palestinians who are also American citizens from leaving the Gaza Strip. “We’ve had people come to Rafah, the crossing with Egypt. And to date, at least, Hamas has blocked them from leaving, showing once again, its total disregard for civilians of any kind who are — who are stuck in Gaza,” Blinken said. “So really, the ball is in Hamas’ court, in terms of letting people who want to leave, civilians from third countries, including Americans get out of Gaza.”

There are a reported up to 600 Americans stuck in Gaza, with one Palestinian-American telling NBC that “America’s not helping us, Biden’s not helping us, the embassy is not helping us.”

🚨 JUST IN: Heavyweight Israeli journalist Edy Cohen posted this video with the following caption:

“Its name was Gaza
Next Beirut” pic.twitter.com/wHfJEO14MD

— Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal) October 23, 2023

The United States is still bolstering its military presence in Middle East waters, readying for any contingency, even as it’s said to be pressing for furthering back-channel negotiations and delaying an all-out Israeli assault: 

It was becoming increasingly clear Monday that the U.S. wants Israel to not only allow more humanitarian assistance into Gaza, but for the country to let ongoing negotiations over the release of hostages held by Hamas to continue before it launches a ground invasion of the Palestinian territory. Israel said Monday that Hamas was still holding 222 people captive.

Two sources told CBS News the U.S. has sought to slow Israel’s plans for a ground invasion in order to prioritize the release of hostages and the distribution of aid, a message Washington is said to have been conveying primarily through defense channels.

The Pentagon is calling its moving two aircraft carrier strike groups into regional waters an act of “deterrence”. 

Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin had announced Saturday, “Following detailed discussions with President Biden on recent escalations by Iran and its proxy forces across the Middle East Region, today I directed a series of additional steps to further strengthen the Department of Defense posture in the region.” He added: “These steps will bolster regional deterrence efforts, increase force protection for U.S. forces in the region, and assist in the defense of Israel.”

The White House has Iran in mind, and its proxies Hezbollah and Shia Houthi rebels in Yemen, the latter who days ago tried to fire missiles on Israel, but which were intercepted by a US warship off Yemen’s coast. US THAAD and Patriot missile batteries have been sent to Israel.

In response to recent escalations by Iran & its proxy forces across the Middle East, SecDef Austin directed the USS Eisenhower, a THAAD BTRY, & additional Patriot BNs to the CENTCOM region to increase force posture, strengthen capabilities & ability to respond to contingencies. https://t.co/5twxq1y5Hq pic.twitter.com/fKjZSrinCi

— U.S. Central Command (@CENTCOM) October 22, 2023

“This is not what we want, not what we’re looking for. We don’t want escalation,” Blinken said. “We don’t want to see our forces or our personnel come under fire. But if that happens, we’re ready for it.” And Austin simultaneously affirmed the statements, saying “what we’re seeing is a prospect of a significant escalation of attacks on our troops and our people throughout the region.”

It’s clear Hezbollah has held off committing itself to a major war with Israel, which could very well happen the moment the IDF mounts a major ground assault into Gaza. Hezbollah’s arsenal, with the help of Iran, is far superior to that of Hamas’, and is said to include tens of thousands of rockets of varying sizes.

There’s still been regular exchange of rocket and mortar fire, with Israeli sources reporting Monday that the Iron Dome intercepted an inbound drone from Lebanon via the sea. It was intercepted over Ein Hamifratz, south of Acre. At this point, several dozens of Israeli towns and communities have been evacuated from near the northern border.

Americans’ confidence that mass media – such as newspapers, TV, and radio – will report the news fairly and balanced plummeted to historic lows not seen since 2016, according to the latest annual Gallup survey of trust in US institutions.

Gallup survey from Sept. 1-23 reveals: 

• 29% of US adults have “not very much” trust in the media.

• A record-high 39% of US adults have “none at all” trust in the media.

• The current 39% with no trust is the highest on record, surpassing the previous by one percentage point. This percentage is 12 points higher than the 2016 reading.

• In 2016, sharp criticism of the media came from then-presidential candidate Donald Trump.

• The current view of the media is the grimmest in Gallup’s history.

• In 2016, the most common sentiment among US adults was “not very much” trust at 41%.

A half-century of Gallup data shows Americans’ trust in the media has rapidly declined. 

There is a massive political gap in the trust of corporate media. About 58% of Democrats trust the media, while only 11% of Republicans feel the same. 

“This low confidence reading for the fourth estate comes at a time when trust in each of the three branches of the federal government is also low,” Gallup pointed out. 

In June, Gallup survey data for trust in TV news and newspapers also slid to a near-record low, as well as a survey last December that found record-low-tying ratings of the honesty and ethics of journalists. 

Souring distaste for mass media reflects that Americans are learning their news flow has been manipulated by the censorship-industrial complex, which is run by political and technological elites. 

The Twitter Files, state attorneys general lawsuits, and investigative reporters have revealed the expanding network of government agencies, academic institutions, and nongovernmental organizations that actively censor citizens for talking about non-approved government narratives, such as Covid, vaccines and Hunter Biden’s business deals. These elites use corporate media to twist the truth and keep the masses locked in the ‘matrix.’

These Six Companies Control Much of US Media

However, the days of censorship in mass media are limited. The emergence of the parallel economy is fostering new capital that is seeding new media ventures, such as the Tucker Carlson on X. The success already on X has CNN and even Fox News envying Carlon’s views in the hundreds of millions. 

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

After the outbreak of war between Israel and Hamas that has increased tensions across the Middle East, the U.S. State Department has issued a worldwide caution alert for Americans traveling abroad.

The alert was issued because of “increased tensions in various locations around the world, the potential for terrorist attacks, demonstrations, or violent actions against U.S. citizens and interests.” Before that update, the most recent worldwide caution advisory was sent out in 2022 after a U.S. strike killed al-Qaeda chief Ayman al-Zawahiri.

The State Department recently issued the Level 4 advisories for Lebanon and Israel’s West Bank and Gaza because of the ongoing conflict with Hamas, a designated terrorist group. It came after Hamas attacked multiple areas in Israel earlier this month, killing hundreds of civilians and leading to an extensive Israeli bombing campaign targeting Gaza, the area that Hamas controls.

As for Lebanon, there have been reports of fighting and airstrikes around the Israel–Lebanon border area, while the Iran-backed Lebanese group Hezbollah—also considered a terrorist organization by the State Department—has issued warnings about the conflict spreading farther.

Warnings have long been issued for citizens traveling to Iran, where U.S. nationals are at risk for “arbitrary arrest and detention.” The United States also has long had Iraq on its Level 4 list, warning that there’s a high risk of kidnapping, terrorism, and armed conflict. Nearby Syria—which recently endured a decade-long civil war—also is under the same warning, with armed conflict, terrorism, kidnapping, civil unrest, and risk of unjust detention being significant, the agency warns.

Ukraine and Russia, meanwhile, have been embroiled in a conflict for nearly two years. The State Department says that Ukraine is on the Level 4 list because of the Russian invasion, but it added that civil unrest and crime are also factors.

I don’t like Mondays…” anymore…

There have been 15 ‘Up’ Mondays in a row for US equities (there hasn’t been a down Monday since before July 4th) until today…

Geopolitically, things did not appear to get seriously worse over the weekend but BoJ YCC-change chatter and Japan’s PM comments sent yields higher overnight. 10Y JGB yields hit 88bps intraday – the highest since Jul 2013…

Source: Bloomberg

UST Yields started to fall as Europe opened but Bill Ackman announcing that he was exiting his UST short (at a profit) triggered a big leg lower in yields which in turn pushed stocks back up into the green for the day.

The economy is slowing faster than recent data suggests.

— Bill Ackman (@BillAckman) October 23, 2023

10Y yield topped 5.00% for the first time since 2007…

Source: Bloomberg

The markets all shifted at that 0945ET tweet from Ackman with the dollar dumping, bitcoin and stocks jumping, and the yield curve flattening. Morgan Stanley said 5% was buying point…

Source: Bloomberg

For a yield-lower close day, today was the largest intraday swing since the regional banking crisis in March…

Equity markets soared as yields plunged, and we reminder readers that today marks the first day of the estimated open Buyback window period (which may have helped accelerate the exuberant BTFD move). Late day headlines on NVDA sparked selling in INTC and sent the majors lower with Small Cap and The Dow the biggest losers with the S&P swinging notably red (as we not.

The drop in yields prompted buying the longest-duration stocks with tech stocks leading and energy lagging (as oil tanked)…

Source: Bloomberg

Growth stocks dramatically outperformed Value stocks…

Source: Bloomberg

News that NVDA would make PC chips smashed INTC lower and took the shine of the major US indices. NVDA was not that moved..

Bitcoin topped $31k…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar dumped, erasing half the CPI spike

Source: Bloomberg

Oil prices slipped lower today, holding at the highs of the day Israel was attacked…

Gold was down modestly after futs topped $2000 intraday, still dramatically higher since Israel was attacked …

Finally, the sovereign risk of the USA continues to worsen…

Source: Bloomberg

…probably nothing!

Meanwhile, financial conditions continue to tighten…

…now near their tightest since The Fed began this inflation-fighting cycle. “Given that the impact from a tightening in financial conditions on GDP typically takes 1-2 years, the full effect of the severe tightening that took place last year has yet to be felt,” wrote JPM’s Marko Kolanovic.

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times,

Days after a federal judge temporarily lifted a gag order, former President Donald Trump criticized special counsel Jack Smith on social media.

U.S. District Judge Tanya Chutkan granted President Trump a temporary hold last week on her previous ruling in the 2020 election conspiracy case while the Trump legal team is appealing the order, arguing that it is unconstitutional.

In the meantime, President Trump criticized Mr. Smith on Truth Social as being “deranged” and said his team “leak[ed]” a story to the New York Times about an Australian businessman, Anthony Pratt, claiming the former president told classified secrets to him.

He denied those reports.

“With this in mind, there is NO WAY I can get a fair trial on a Biden, Election Interference Indictment, in D.C. Obviously, at the appropriate time, if this ridiculous case should be allowed to proceed forward, which is, according to legal scholars, very doubtful, I will be making a demand for a Venue Change!” he also wrote on the social media platform.

Earlier this month, Judge Chutkan ordered President Trump to not make any posts or statements regarding possible witnesses, Mr. Smith, his family, or court staff, although he can make general statements about the Department of Justice and Washington itself. Prosecutors alleged that the former president’s posts on social media could incite violence or contaminate the jury pool, while Trump’s attorneys argued that such an order would violate his right to free speech—especially as he is a leading candidate for the 2024 presidential election.

“President Trump is the forty-fifth President of the United States and the leading candidate in the upcoming Presidential Election,” his defense attorneys wrote.

“He has dominating leads in the race for the Republican nomination, and he leads President Biden.”

However, the federal judge rejected the former president’s arguments regarding the election, saying that “no other criminal defendant would be allowed to do so, and I’m not going to allow it in this case.” She would impose sanctions if the partial gag order is violated, she said without elaborating.

Meanwhile, Mr. Smith’s prosecutors wanted broader restrictions targeting the former president, arguing that his social media comments targeting various individuals could prejudice the proceedings. But the judge denied his bid to restrict his comments about the people of Washington who can be jurors in the trial, and she also declined to restrict his statements criticizing the federal government.

“He does not have the right to say and do exactly what he pleases. Do you agree with that?” she asked Trump attorney John Lauro during a court hearing on Oct. 16, who replied with, “100 percent.”

“Nothing like this has ever happened in our Country before,” President Trump said earlier this month about the order, criticizing Judge Chutkan as a “highly partisan Obama appointed Judge,” referring to former President Barack Obama’s appointment of her in 2014.

(Left:) Special counsel Jack Smith. (Center:) U.S. District Judge Tanya Chutkan. (Right:) Former President Donald Trump. (Drew Angerer/Getty Images; Administrative Office of the U.S. Courts via AP; Brandon Bell/Getty Images)

In the case, President Trump pleaded not guilty to the four-count indictment, which is one of four separate criminal cases against him while he seeks to become the 2024 Republican nominee for the White House. He also currently is facing a civil fraud trial in New York City over his sprawling real estate business, and he has also denied wrongdoing in the case.

It wasn’t the first time that a judge issued a gag order targeting the former president. New York Judge Arthur Engoron issued a partial gag order that blocks personal criticism of courtroom personnel after President Trump accused his principal clerk of having a cozy relationship with Senate Democrat Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.).

On Friday, he was fined $5,000 by the New York judge after a post about his clerk reportedly stayed up on his campaign website for several weeks, despite the former president having deleted it from social media. His attorneys said that it was an oversight.

It comes as the Trump campaign confirmed the former president will hold a rally in Florida as counter-programming to the third Republican presidential primary debate, which he is once again choosing to skip.

The campaign stated he will hold a rally the evening of Nov. 8th at a stadium in Hialeah, Florida about a half-hour drive from the Adrienne Arsht Center for the Performing Arts of Miami-Dade County, where his rivals will be meeting. President Trump has repeatedly said he sees no point in participating, given his commanding lead in the race.

NBC will be hosting the November debate, which will require candidates to secure 4 percent of the vote in multiple polls and 70,000 unique donors to qualify.

During he first debate, the former president competed with the first debate with a pre-recorded interview with former Fox News host Tucker Carlson that was posted that night on X, the site formerly known as Twitter. He spent the second in battleground Michigan, where he tried to win over auto workers and blue-collar voters by railing against President Joe Biden’s push for electric cars.

NewsGuard, a company which claims to rate media outlets’ level of ‘trustworthiness’ and therefore has a meaningful influence over ad revenue, has been sued along with the Biden administration by Consortium News, which also named the Pentagon’s Cyber Command for “contracting with NewsGuard to identify, report and abridge the speech of American media organizations that dissent from U.S. official positions on foreign policy.”

According to the complaint, NewsGuard is “acting jointly or in concert with the United States to coerce news organizations to alter viewpoints” regarding Ukraine, Russia and Syria, and has impsed a form of “censorship and repression of views” that diverge from US policies and those of its allies, the complaint says.

Consortium also notes that NewsGuard has branded the entirety of Consortium News’ 20,000+ articles as ‘unreliable’ based on just six examples they took issue with (which is the exact same thing they do with ZeroHedge and other independent media).

NewsGuard uses its software to tag targeted news sites, including all 20,000+ Consortium News articles an videos published since 1995, with warnings to “proceed with caution,” telling NewsGuard subscribers that Consortium News produces “disinformation,” “false content” and is an “anti-U.S.” media organization, even though NewsGuard only took issue with a total of six CN articles and none of its videos.

The complaint seeks a permanent injunction declaring the joint program unconstitutional; barring the government and NewsGuard from continuing such practices and more than $13 million in damages for defamation and civil rights violations. –Consortium News

Last week former Trump administration official Mike Benz noted on X that Wikipedia co-founder Jimmy Wales is an adviser to NewsGuard, and that the nanny organization was “knee deep in a plot to get [governments] to bankrupt alternative news. NewsGuard worked [with the] EU on new disinformation code. Its biz model has ‘disinformation compliance’ services [with the] censorship laws it promotes.”

Elon, for your peripheral vision, Jimmy Wales advises NewsGuard, which is knee deep in a plot to get gov’ts to bankrupt alternative news.

NewsGuard worked w/ EU on new disinformation code. Its biz model has “disinformation compliance” services w/ censorship laws it promotes. https://t.co/NNiciemxu0 pic.twitter.com/QDz1a2qFVZ

— Mike Benz (@MikeBenzCyber) October 19, 2023

Elon, there is no way EU censorship proponents can deny it. NewsGuard bragged about it. EU officers bragged about it. They had formal partnership together.

All they can do now is hold their nose & hope their own voters never learn what’s been going on. pic.twitter.com/gvcWAOtpdq

— Mike Benz (@MikeBenzCyber) October 19, 2023

In another X thread, Elon Musk called Newsguard a “scam” after they gave political commentator Tim Pool a strike “because we ran 5 stories out of nearly 5,000 that quoted [former President Donald] Trump.”

What a scam!

“Newsguard” should be disbanded immediately.

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) October 19, 2023

Acording to Uncover DC, NewsGuard has contracts with the DoD, WHO, Pfizer, Microsoft & AFT.

Co-CEOs Steven Brill and Gordon Crovitz claim it is the “librarian for the internet.” Set up specifically to rate online journalistic integrity, Brill states NewsGuard provides services that “explain to people something about the reliability and trustworthiness and background of those who are feeding them the news.” Eric Effron is the organization’s Editorial Director.

Brill is a Yale graduate and lawyer who has authored multiple best-selling books and was, among other things, CEO of Verified Identity Pass, Inc., the first U.S. biometric Voluntary Credentialing Program that went bankrupt in 2009. It was the parent company of CLEAR which went back online in 2010 and then went public in 2021.

According to MintPressNews, “Crovitz held a number of positions at Dow Jones and the Wall Street Journal, eventually becoming executive vice president of the former and the publisher of the latter before both were sold to Rupert Murdoch’s News Corp in 2007. He is also a board member of Business Insider, which has received over $30 million from Washington Post owner Jeff Bezos in recent years.”

Crovitz’s alliances might account for the organization’s favorable 100 ratings for WSJ and the Washington Post. He is also a contributor “to books published by the American Enterprise Institute and Heritage Foundation,” which are also favorably rated by NewsGuard.

*  *  *

NewsGuard’s directors, advisors, and investors are an interesting cast of characters. One of the investors, Publicis Groupe, is “the third largest communications group in the world.” Publicic allegedly has “shadowy ties to Saudi Arabia.” Pfizer and Bayer/Monsanto are two of its top clients. Ironically, many of the advisors/directors are former U.S. government officials, entertainment moguls, and journalists “associated with agencies known for producing false news.”

Among the advisors is Michael Hayden, former Director of the NSA and CIA, who was “the architect of George W. Bush’s secret domestic spying program.” Tom Ridge was the first Office of Homeland Security Director following 9/11. Richard Stengel “is a former senior official in Obama’s state department who once described his role as being that of ‘chief propagandist.‘”

Leftist “NewsGuard” is Microsoft partner. https://t.co/qfPwJNy69E

— Tom Fitton (@TomFitton) February 14, 2023

And as the Epoch Times noted in August, NewsGuard presents itself as objective and nonpartisan. Its ratings, the company says, measure media quality on nine criteria, including transparency of authorship and ownership and adherence to standard editorial practice, such as issuing corrections and labeling opinion pieces. In practice, however, most of the score boils down to whether the media present content that, in NewsGuard’s opinion, is truthful.

The first criterion specifically looks at whether the target repeatedly publishes false claims. Another examines whether it publishes news “responsibly.” But failing the first one means failing the second one, NewsGuard explains on its website. Yet another criterion is whether the target uses accurate headlines.

Again, if the headline says something NewsGuard considers to be untrue, that counts as a failure. Another criterion looks for a policy of regularly correcting errors—or what NewsGuard considers to be errors. Together, these four criteria add up to more than 60 points of the 100-point score.

Even if NewsGuard can’t find anything to dispute, it can still dock points if the target doesn’t sufficiently represent opinions the company would like to see.

Such content providers “egregiously cherry pick facts or stories to advance opinions,” it argues.

Meanwhile, at least 60 points are needed for NewsGuard to issue its “credible” rating.

This methodology becomes particularly problematic when NewsGuard itself is wrong on the facts. For example, during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, the company considered false the notion that the SARS-CoV-2 virus was leaked from a lab in Wuhan, China. If a news outlet with a perfect score responsibly reported on the extensive circumstantial evidence indicating a lab leak, it ran the risk of NewsGuard decimating its score and falsely labelling it an “unreliable” source that “severely violates basic journalistic standards.”

The COVID-19 origins issue was a rare case in which NewsGuard eventually issued a correction, though it only went as far as saying that the lab leak hypothesis couldn’t be completely ruled out.

Update(0350ET): Hamas has announced the release of two more hostages, bringing the total numbered free since they were kidnapped Oct.7 to four. Al Jazeera is reporting, “The latest release of two Israeli captives from Gaza – both women – follows the release late last week of two US citizens.”

The newly freed women have been identified as 79-year old Nurit Cooper and 85-year old Yocheved Lifshitz.

Hamas has reportedly demanded fuel in release for more hostages, given electricity has been out across the strip, and fuel is needed to generate power locally. Israel has reportedly countered that all hostages must be freed for deliveries to be allowed into Gaza. This has predictably led to a breakdown in negotiations, which have been mediated by Qatar: 

* * * 

Update(1235ET): It has become clear at this point that Israel is stalling its ‘imminent’ ground invasion of Gaza in order to buy more time to negotiate for the release of hostages, now numbered at 222 in Hamas/PIJ captivity. As we detailed below, the White House is putting pressure on Tel Aviv to delay, also no doubt on fears that a full assault will trigger a war with Hezbollah in the north. From there, things could spin out of control, also with Russian, Iranian, and Chinese military assets positioned in the region in addition to an American carrier strike group.

The New York Times is reporting Monday morning that Hamas could be preparing to release 50 hostages with dual citizenship, amid negotiations mediated by Qatar:

The U.S. wants more time for hostage negotiations. On Friday, the U.S. secured the release of two American hostages, with Qatar’s help. Israel believes Hamas may release about 50 hostages who are citizens of another country as well as Israel, but a ground invasion could make hostage releases less likely.

According to more from the NY Times:

A senior Israeli military official said that based on conversations between the United States and Qatar, Hamas could possibly release about 50 dual nationals separate from any broader deal.

The repeated delays also reflect a growing tension between Mr. Netanyahu and Mr. Gallant, his defense minister, who supports a broad military operation that would also include Hezbollah, the powerful militia in Lebanon.

Al-Arabiya has separately issued a headline saying that the hostages will be released “within hours”.

مصادر العربية: أنباء عن تسليم حماس لعدد من الرهائن الأجانب خلال ساعات #العربية_عاجل

— العربية عاجل (@AlArabiya_Brk) October 23, 2023

If this major hostage release does materialize, it is likely to create conditions that stall an IDF ground invasion further.

* * *

The United Nations has revised its grim figure of the rising death toll from Israel’s bombardment of Gaza, saying that it has surpassed 5,000 as of Monday. It stands at 5,087. Separately, over 90 Palestinians have been killed in escalating West Bank violence, which over the weekend included Israel launching a rare airstrike on Jenin. Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) are still holding at least 222 Israeli and foreign captives – a number which has again been revised upward.

European Union foreign ministers are meanwhile gathered in Brussels for an urgent meeting to take up the contentious issue of a ceasefire. UN secretary-general Antonio Guterres has been calling on world bodies to back a ceasefire. In response, EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said, “Personally, I think that a humanitarian pause is needed in order to allow the humanitarian support to come in and be distributed, seeing that half of the population of Gaza has been moving from their houses.”

Bloomberg is reporting Monday morning that EU leaders are set to endorse a call for a “humanitarian pause”. “The European Council supports the call of UNSG (U.N. Secretary-General Antonio) Guterres for a humanitarian pause in order to allow for safe humanitarian access and aid to reach those in need,” a draft statement of the summit reads.

But Washington, Israel’s staunchest supporter, is not expected to back a ceasefire – despite reports President Biden has sought for Israel’s military delay the expected imminent ground invasion, in order to buy more time to negotiate the freedom of more hostages.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken in the Sunday news shows made this clear. Margaret Brennan, the host of CBS News’s “Face the Nation,” asked him, “UNICEF says 1,524 children have been killed in the Gaza Strip during these bombings. Why isn’t the US calling for at least a temporary ceasefire?“

Blinken then claimed that children dying on either side has hit him “right in the heart” – but he stopped short of directing any criticism at Israel’s indiscriminate and unrelenting bombing campaign. Instead, he defended it:

“Israel has to do everything it can to make sure this doesn’t happen again,” Blinken said in reference to October 7 Hamas cross-border attack. “Freezing things in place where they are now would allow Hamas to remain where it is and to repeat what it’s done some time in the future. No country could accept that.”

He then cited unverified reports that Hamas has actively blocked Palestinians who are also American citizens from leaving the Gaza Strip. “We’ve had people come to Rafah, the crossing with Egypt. And to date, at least, Hamas has blocked them from leaving, showing once again, its total disregard for civilians of any kind who are — who are stuck in Gaza,” Blinken said. “So really, the ball is in Hamas’ court, in terms of letting people who want to leave, civilians from third countries, including Americans get out of Gaza.”

There are a reported up to 600 Americans stuck in Gaza, with one Palestinian-American telling NBC that “America’s not helping us, Biden’s not helping us, the embassy is not helping us.”

🚨 JUST IN: Heavyweight Israeli journalist Edy Cohen posted this video with the following caption:

“Its name was Gaza
Next Beirut” pic.twitter.com/wHfJEO14MD

— Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal) October 23, 2023

The United States is still bolstering its military presence in Middle East waters, readying for any contingency, even as it’s said to be pressing for furthering back-channel negotiations and delaying an all-out Israeli assault: 

It was becoming increasingly clear Monday that the U.S. wants Israel to not only allow more humanitarian assistance into Gaza, but for the country to let ongoing negotiations over the release of hostages held by Hamas to continue before it launches a ground invasion of the Palestinian territory. Israel said Monday that Hamas was still holding 222 people captive.

Two sources told CBS News the U.S. has sought to slow Israel’s plans for a ground invasion in order to prioritize the release of hostages and the distribution of aid, a message Washington is said to have been conveying primarily through defense channels.

The Pentagon is calling its moving two aircraft carrier strike groups into regional waters an act of “deterrence”. 

Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin had announced Saturday, “Following detailed discussions with President Biden on recent escalations by Iran and its proxy forces across the Middle East Region, today I directed a series of additional steps to further strengthen the Department of Defense posture in the region.” He added: “These steps will bolster regional deterrence efforts, increase force protection for U.S. forces in the region, and assist in the defense of Israel.”

The White House has Iran in mind, and its proxies Hezbollah and Shia Houthi rebels in Yemen, the latter who days ago tried to fire missiles on Israel, but which were intercepted by a US warship off Yemen’s coast. US THAAD and Patriot missile batteries have been sent to Israel.

In response to recent escalations by Iran & its proxy forces across the Middle East, SecDef Austin directed the USS Eisenhower, a THAAD BTRY, & additional Patriot BNs to the CENTCOM region to increase force posture, strengthen capabilities & ability to respond to contingencies. https://t.co/5twxq1y5Hq pic.twitter.com/fKjZSrinCi

— U.S. Central Command (@CENTCOM) October 22, 2023

“This is not what we want, not what we’re looking for. We don’t want escalation,” Blinken said. “We don’t want to see our forces or our personnel come under fire. But if that happens, we’re ready for it.” And Austin simultaneously affirmed the statements, saying “what we’re seeing is a prospect of a significant escalation of attacks on our troops and our people throughout the region.”

It’s clear Hezbollah has held off committing itself to a major war with Israel, which could very well happen the moment the IDF mounts a major ground assault into Gaza. Hezbollah’s arsenal, with the help of Iran, is far superior to that of Hamas’, and is said to include tens of thousands of rockets of varying sizes.

There’s still been regular exchange of rocket and mortar fire, with Israeli sources reporting Monday that the Iron Dome intercepted an inbound drone from Lebanon via the sea. It was intercepted over Ein Hamifratz, south of Acre. At this point, several dozens of Israeli towns and communities have been evacuated from near the northern border.

Authored by Simon White, Bloomberg macro strategist,

Retail seems unfazed by the tension in the Middle East, according to stock sentiment, while they have continued to add to their bond positions despite rising yields.

That will become increasingly uncomfortable as both stocks and bonds falling at the same time becomes a more common occurrence.

The recent period is a reminder that when the stock-bond correlation is positive…

…both assets can fall at the same time.

That might come as a shock to retail investors.

They have been net bullish for most of the second half of this year, according to the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII).

Further, they have increased their net bullishness in the last 2-3 weeks despite the situation in Israel and Gaza.

The stock outlook from a technical stand point has soured in recent weeks, even while there is a cyclical upswing in the US and global economy. Measures of breadth – such as the number of stocks trading below their 200-day moving average, the number of stocks making new 52-week lows, and the advance-decline line – are all weakening, but are not yet at capitulatory levels that would hint a rebound is imminent.

Moreover, the S&P has dropped through its 200-day moving average, so we may see more follow-through in the short term.

Excess liquidity, though, remains supportive for risk assets in the medium term, and as long as yields do not continue to accelerate higher (more dip buyers coming through perhaps), stock-market downside should be contained. (Note as well though the Nasdaq has a lot more downside than the S&P, being up 33% this year, versus 10% for the S&P.)

While retail may thus face more stock losses, they have also had their hands bloodied by trying to catch the falling bond knife this year.

Using ETF flows as a proxy, they likely accelerated their net purchases of government bonds in the summer as yield rises started to pick up, and have chased prices lower ever since.

According to the AAII, investors have increased their stock and bond allocations this year, and reduced their cash allocations, despite very attractive cash yields. 

That shows either enormous faith in financial assets to deliver fairly exceptional returns despite an elevated inflation backdrop, or that they have yet to adjust to the new financial order.