Authored by Andy Puzder via RealClear Wire,

Former President Trump has held a slight lead in the RealClearPolitics Average of the polls since around September 11. While his lead is well within the margin of error, Democrats find it disconcerting that Biden is struggling against Trump. They have unceasingly berated, twice impeached, and four times indicted Trump, yet his support has grown. But Democrats shouldn’t be surprised. In important respects, Trump has them to thank for the strength of his support.  

Andrew F. Puzder is the former CEO of CKE Restaurants, Inc. and a senior fellow at the Heritage Foundation and the Pepperdine University School of Public Policy.

Ukraine’s President Zelensky has been refused his own request to visit Israel out of “solidarity” after the Oct. 7 deadly attacks by Hamas, in yet another awkward moment for Kiev.

He was reportedly told by the Netanyahu government that “now is not the time” for such a state visit, according to Hebrew-language media. However, his office was told that there might be a later date for such a visit.

Israel’s i24News wrote that “The yet unexplained denial of Zelensky’s solidarity visit comes as the U.S. President Joe Biden is reportedly expected to visit Israel as soon as Wednesday.”

Zelensky had since the start of the new Gaza war issued series of strong statement in support of Israel. “The world must stand united… so that terror does not attempt to take or destroy life anywhere and at any moment,” he had said.

He has also claimed that Russia is stoking conflict in the Middle East, also as a way to distract from its operations in Ukraine, but without offering any evidence.

Last Wednesday, Axios reported that “Zelensky’s office sent an official request to the Israeli Prime Minister’s office asking to coordinate a visit, the Ukrainian and Israeli officials said.” 

It seems the pro-Ukraine cause in general, including efforts in Congress and by the Biden administration to keep the billions in aid flowing, has been sapped of its prior enthusiasm and momentum. 

And it’s perhaps also the case that Israel perceived that Zelensky is trying to link Ukraine’s cause with Israel’s as a matter of PR. 

This is bad news for Zelensky. Artificially linking the Ukraine War to the Israel-Gaza War is imperative to stay relevant and get the necessary attention and funding. The war appears to be lost for Zelensky. pic.twitter.com/zfBsHkKYKq

— Glenn Diesen (@Glenn_Diesen) October 16, 2023

At this moment, a major Israeli full offensive by air and ground appears imminent, though it’s been delayed after there was an expectation that it would start this weekend. Some reports have said that bad weather is a factor.

But the Jerusalem Post has offered a different perspective, writing Monday, “Yet, now we have arrived at late Monday, and if anything, the signs (which could also be psychological warfare) are that the invasion is further away, and not yet imminent.”

Authored by James Howard Kunstler via Kunstler.com,

“After 2016, the national security state, the foreign policy establishment, & the gov’t-funded NGO-plex orgs redefined the word “democracy”: it no longer meant a consensus of individuals, it meant a consensus of institutions.”

– Mike Benz

The din of war drums beating hasn’t completely drowned out the barrage of lying bullshit issued by US Deep State blobsters in their effort to keep reality at bay from a citizenry gone restive and aggrieved over the seemingly deliberate ruination of our country by the people who run it.

On Thursday, FBI Director Chris Wray and Homeland Security chief Alejandro Mayorkas warned Americans that terrorist threats are rising in the US since Hamas attacked Israel, October 7th. Mr. Wray explained:

“Here in the U.S., we cannot and do not discount the possibility that Hamas or other foreign terrorist organizations could exploit the conflict to call on their supporters to conduct attacks on our own soil.”

We must be especially alert to the “lone wolf” lurking  amongst us, he added.

Neither of these officials noted that the rising terror threat here had any relation to the thousands of aliens streaming daily across the US border unvetted, or that the agencies under Homeland Security were helping to distribute them into every corner of America by plane and bus, giving them free cell phones, loaded debit cards, and other rewards for breaking the law.

And that “lone wolf” bit — is it possible that any number of them actually arrived as trained and pre-organized cadres or squads? How would we know? Most of them are military-age young men.

Are these unreasonable questions to ask? And If Hamas was so supernaturally successful in secretly planning the mass murder and kidnapping operation of 10/7 from Gaza that the world’s supposedly top intel agencies were blindsided as it rolled out, why should Americans have any confidence that the FBI has a clue what any of those unvetted border-jumping mutts are up to here? Especially since those free phones enable them to find each other and hook-up right from the get-go, without delay. It’s even possible that those phones were preloaded with their comrades’ numbers on speed-dial. Not to mention that illegal migrants have been coming here in huge waves for years, and surely some have been busy ever since setting up networks aimed at making trouble that new arrivals can easily slot into.

Since the FBI has been so preoccupied the duration of the “Joe Biden” regime tracking down every native-born living soul who attended the 1/6/21 riot at the US Capitol, instead of using the agency’s assets to monitor alien networking, you have to wonder why Mr. Wray even bothers to comment on the current situation. He can only embarrass (or incriminate) himself more deeply. One thing for sure is not happening: any effort by Mr. Mayorkas and his 260,000 employees to make the US/Mexico border any less porous. If it hadn’t occurred them yet, they might consider closing down the US-funded United Nations operation in Central America (with help from several international NGOs) that is running way-stations to transport aliens north to our border in hundred-plus bus fleets at a time, taking every possible advantage to accelerate the flow. I guess we’ll just have to stand by and see what happens.

Speaking of mind-blowing bullshit, emanating from a different pseudopod of the DC blob, former CIA Director Leon Panetta chimed in with Fox News’s Bret Baier last week to declare he still thinks that Hunter Biden’s laptop was a Russian dis-info operation. Mr. Panetta was a co-signer of the notorious letter from 50 other former US Intel bigwigs in October, 2020, a few weeks before the election, organized by former Acting CIA Director Mike Morell to gaslight voters after The New York Post published the existence of the Laptop from Hell and some of its sordid contents tending to incriminate the Biden family for foreign influence-peddling.

As with so many blobsters infesting government and its nether regions, Leon Panetta likes to demonstrate that his contempt for the people of this land is boundless. He can’t possibly believe what he is saying. Everyone from the FBI to The New York Times has declared Hunter’s laptop authentic. Therefore, Leon Panetta is either a fool, a lying scoundrel, or insane. This kind of self-satisfied dishonor is a new thing in the USA, at least at the colossal scale it has achieved the past decade. In 2023 it is the order-of-the-day. In this particular case, it led to putting “Joe Biden,” with his handlers and movers, in a position to destroy the country, and they are getting it done.

Yet, events are still in motion, and decades are happening in days now.

We’ll learn this week whether escalation of the war involving Israel and its enemies can be averted without giving Hamas a pass on consequences for its recent murder spree.

We’ll learn whether a meaningful opposition against the Party of Chaos can organize around a new House speaker.

We’ll learn whether that same assembly can begin the process of laying out a president’s crimes for all in the nation to see, including the sizeable cohort of citizens who relish official lying and being lied to.

*  *  *

Support his blog by visiting Jim’s Patreon Page

Update: Belgium’s crisis center has raised the nation’s terror alert status to its highest level.

“Horrified by the terrorist attack which left two victims in the heart of Brussels,” Belgian Foreign Minister Hadja Lahbib said in a post on the X social media network.

“All necessary means must be mobilized to combat radicalism.”

“We are monitoring the situation and ask the people of Brussels to be vigilant,” Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo said in a post on X, but appeared to confirm the link to terrorism:

“I have just offered my sincere condolences to the Swedish prime minister following tonight’s harrowing attack on Swedish citizens in Brussels.

“Our thoughts are with the families and friends who lost their loved ones. As close partners, the fight against terrorism is a joint one.”

Additionally, the Euro 2024 soccer qualifier between Belgium and Sweden (taking place in Belgium’s national stadium in Brussels) has been abandoned at half-time after the attack, with fans locked in the stadium.

No suspect has yet been arrested.

*  *  *

As Remix News’ Thomas Brooke reported, two people have been shot dead and others injured in central Brussels on Monday evening and the perpetrator remains at large, Belgian police have said.

Authorities have confirmed a shooting took place in Ieperlaan at around 7:15 p.m. local time and two people of Swedish nationality were killed.

The victims are understood to have been supporters of the Swedish national football team and were visiting the Belgian capital to attend the European Championship qualifying fixture between the two nations at the Heysel Stadium on Monday evening.

Amateur footage circulating outline showed the perpetrator, dressed in a fluorescent orange jacket and wearing a white helmet, equipped with an assault rifle on the rampage in the city. The suspect arrived at the scene on a scooter before opening fire in the street causing pedestrians to flee into a nearby apartment building.

Ce n’est pas une blague, s’il vous plaît faites attention à vous pic.twitter.com/9tP4Us1iUG

— Votre Nom Ici (@momoblf) October 16, 2023

The man followed those fleeing the scene into the lobby of the residential building before firing several more shots, before returning to his scooter and taking off at speed.

Belgian media reported eyewitness testimony which stated the shooter shouted “Allahu Akbar” before opening fire.

Additional footage circulating online purports to be a video message recorded in Arabic by the shooter who is wearing the same identifiable clothing following the attack. According to the Sudinfo news outlet, the attacker said his motivation for the mass shooting was to avenge the deaths of Muslims around the world and boasted about killing “infidels.”

“In his very violent speech, he said he had shot two people to ‘avenge the Muslims and that we live and die for our religion,’” the news site stated.

The tweet is viewable here but not embeddable…

Crisis meetings have taken place between the Belgian federal police, the Brussels local police, the security services, and Belgian Interior Minister Annelies Verlinden and Justice Minister Vincent Van Quickenborne.

Authorities have not yet made an arrest and the suspect remains at large.

This is a developing story…

It seems that because World War III did, literally, not break out this weekend, it is BTFD time… and there was much rejoicing that “stocks managed to rally in the face of rising rates” with no thought of why.

Source: Bloomberg

Now, where have we seen that before?

Source: Bloomberg

Anyway, Small Caps and Nasdaq were the day’s big winners with The Dow lagging but all comfortably green…

AAPL opened ugly – on China demand fears – rallied to green and failed… rallied to green again… and failed again…

Today saw the first short-squeeze day in the last four days and for context, it was not very impressive…

Source: Bloomberg

VIX was clubbed like a baby seal back to a 17 handle, finding support at pre-Israel Attack levels…

But we note that 0-DTE traders fought the uptrend most of the day…

Source: SpotGamma

The S&P continues to hover at the low-end of the September gap-down. Will Retail Sales or Powell fill the gap?

Interestingly, AI names underperformed AI-at-risk names (though both were up significantly on the day) after the Biden admin cracking down on chips to China headlines…

Source: Bloomberg

Additionally, for a change, the GLP-1 Obesity names underperformed the at-risk names (though again both were higher)…

Source: Bloomberg

Treasury yields were higher across the entire curve with the long-end underperforming…

Source: Bloomberg

Notably, the 2Y yield broke above Thursday’s post-CPI spike high yield but the 10Y could not…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar rolled over today, with selling accelerating as the day wore on…

Source: Bloomberg

Israel’s Shekel slumped to its weakest since 2015, back above 4/USD…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin had a brief shining moment in the sun after a tweet said that a Spot ETF had been approved… which was then denied… sending the crypto all the way back down to $28k from its spike to $30k.BUT then BTC caught a bid and lifted again along with stocks, back up near $29,000…

Source: Bloomberg

Oil slipped lower today on headlines that the Biden admin will allow another ‘dictator’ to sell more oil (Venezuela)…

Gold stalled at 9/25 ledge levels after ripping higher post-Israel (and payrolls) and slipped lower…

Finally, it appears the market is ready for some volatility in the next couple of days from Retail Sales and Fed Chair Powell’s address…

Source: Bloomberg

But, after that, vol collapses.

Authored by Dorothy Li via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The Chinese regime urged the Israeli government to stop its military actions in Gaza, saying Israel has “gone beyond self-defense” in response to the surprise attack by the Hamas terrorist group last week.

China’s foreign minister Wang Yi delivered the message during a Saturday phone call with Saudi Arabian counterpart, Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud.

“Israel’s actions have gone beyond self-defense,” Mr. Wang claimed, urging the Israeli government to stop what he called “collective punishment of civilians in Gaza,” according to the readout from China’s foreign ministry.

The conversation came after the Israeli foreign ministry sharply criticized Beijing’s lack of condemnation for Hamas’s unprecedented attack on southern Israel a week ago, killing over 1,000 civilians and capturing up to 150 more as hostages.

“There was no clear and unequivocal condemnation of the terrible massacre committed by the terrorist organization Hamas against innocent civilians and the abduction of dozens of them to Gaza,” the Israeli foreign ministry said in a readout of a phone call between Israeli ambassador Rafi Harpaz and China’s special envoy to the Middle East, Zhai Jun.

Mr. Harpaz has expressed “Israel’s deep disappointment” to Mr. Zhai, the ministry said.

The Chinese regime has refrained from denouncing the Palestinian terror group. In the wake of the Oct. 7 strike by Hamas on Israel, the communist regime’s first response was to call on “relevant parties” to “stay calm” and “exercise restraint.” Without naming Hamas, the statement said Beijing was “deeply concerned” about the escalation of tensions and violence and made calls for a two-state resolution, drawing criticism from United States and Israeli officials who said it lacked sympathy for the Israeli victims.

“When people are being murdered, slaughtered in the streets, this is not the time to call for a two-state solution,” Yuval Waks, a senior official at the Israeli embassy in Beijing, said during a briefing on Oct. 8.

Facing pressure, China’s foreign ministry issued a new statement, saying that the regime condemned such acts against civilians. The updated statement, however, still avoids mentioning Hamas by name.

“China is a friend to both Israel and Palestine,” Mao Ning, a spokeswoman for China’s foreign ministry, told reporters at a regular briefing on Oct.9.

While China sought to portray itself as neutral, outside observers say the communist regime has chosen to side with Palestine.

“We have to look at China’s relationship with Iran because Iran has often been a proxy for Beijing. And, of course, Hamas is a proxy of Iran. So really, what we’ve got here is China fueling these brutal attacks and this invasion of Israel,” said Gordan Chang, author of “The Coming Collapse of China” and “China Is Going to War.”

“I’m sure Chinese weapons [will] show up on the battlefield. And, of course, it’s Chinese money that has permitted this,” he said.

Separately, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken also spoke with Mr. Wang on Saturday.

Mr. Blinken “reiterated U.S. support for Israel’s right to defend itself and called for an immediate cessation of Hamas’ attacks and the release of all hostages,” the State Department said in a statement. Mr. Blinken “discussed the importance of maintaining stability in the region and discouraging other parties from entering the conflict,” according to the statement.

For his part, Mr. Wang reiterated the regime’s stance that it “opposed all actions that harm civilians and condemning practices that violate international law.”

The Chinese Communist Party’s top diplomat said the United States should “play a constructive and responsible role,” pushing the conflict “back on track for a political settlement as soon as possible,” according to Beijing’s statement.

Their conversation also touched on U.S.–China ties, the ministry said, which Mr. Wang said have shown signs of stabilizing.

As part of the efforts to reopen communication lines, President Joe Biden hopes to meet Chinese Mr. Xi on the sidelines of next month’s Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in San Francisco. But such a meeting hasn’t been confirmed by Beijing.

Mr. Xi will sit down with Russian President Vladimir Putin next week. Moscow has confirmed that Mr. Putin will visit Beijing from Oct. 17 to Oct. 18.

By Ven Ram, Bloomberg Markets Live reporter and strategist

Treasuries at the back end of the curve may find it hard to keep extending their rally from last week as the Federal Reserve pushes into the last lap toward its inflation target.

For four months now, the US economy has seen successive readings in which headline inflation has been 3%-something, with the last two creeping up toward 4%.

And with Brent crude nudging past $90 a barrel again and threatening to spiral away on the back of tensions in the Middle East, the risk to inflation is clearly on the upside.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell takes the floor of the Economic Club of New York this week, and he would probably say rates in the US are restrictive enough and that the central bank will wait for its cumulative rate increases so far in this cycle to funnel through to the economy even as policymakers are willing to do more if needed to quell inflation.

By all measures, the Fed’s most ambitious policy tightening in decades, you would think, ought to have been felt by now in the real economy. After all, the Fed can boast of a ex-ante real policy rate of 290 basis points, which by almost any yardstick represents a sharply restrictive regime. Yet, the labor market is still tight and the jobless rate is around levels where the news is as good as it gets.

One key reason: if the economy is going to be resilient and if artificial intelligence is going to spur growth in productivity, the neutral rate — the rate that doesn’t stoke inflation while keeping the labor market steady — may be tipped higher. Quite tellingly, expectations about price pressures as represented by forward inflation swaps haven’t moved an iota lower since the Fed started raising rates.

Which is why the dash toward duration hasn’t paid off yet. In a world where inflation is 3.7% and biased upward perhaps, it’s not too hard to envisage a 10-year yield around 4.7%. That is indeed far grimmer than it appeared just a few months ago.

Activist hedge fund Starboard Value has acquired a position in News Corp., aiming for strategic and governance changes within Rupert Murdoch’s media empire.

The $8 billion New York-based fund, led by Jeff Smith, “believes News Corp., one of the two arms of Rupert Murdoch’s media empire, trades at a significant discount to its fair market value due to its conglomerate structure,” according to The Wall Street Journal, citing people familiar with the matter. 

The people said Starboard’s stake in News Corp. is “sizeable” but provided no additional information on how large. Reuters first reported Starboard’s stake last Friday. 

Starboard began building a stake in News Corp. over the summer, before Murdoch, 92, announced on Sept 21 that he would step down as chairman, leaving his son Lachlan as sole chair, the sources said. -Reuters 

WSJ said Starboard would ask News Corp. to spin off its digital real estate division, which includes a stake in Australian online property site operator REA Group and Realtor.com parent Move Inc. 

Starboard argues that News Corp.’s Dow Jones business, the publisher of the Journal, Barron’s, and MarketWatch, is worth upwards of $7 billion.  

Smith also plans to push News Corp. to do away with its dual-class share structure, which ultimately gives the Murdoch family more voting power in excess of their actual ownership. 

Reuters said Smith will present his ideas of reshaping News Corp. at two investor conferences this week, including Tuesday’s 13D Monitor Active-Passive Investment Summit. 

Last month, Murdoch, News Corp.’s executive chairman, said he would formally resign at a shareholder meeting in November. His elder son, Lachlan Murdoch, who has served as co-chair of News Corp, will become sole chair of that company and continue as Fox Corp. executive chair and CEO. 

Earlier this year, News Corp. CEO Robert Thomson reduced headcount by 5% or around 1,250 positions.

There has been another activist fund, Irenic Capital Management, in News Corp., which has also been pushing the company to separate the digital media business from its digital real estate assets. 

Besides News Corp., Starboard Value took a stake in Salesforce one year ago, calling for the cloud software company to increase its margins. 

News Corp shares are down about a quarter since peaking around $27.44 in May 2021. 

And Starboard Value believes shares trade at a significant discount due to its structure. 

Update(1255ET): An active session of Israel’s Knesset in Jerusalem has been interrupted by a barrage of rockets fired from the Gaza Strip, which sent members of parliament into bomb shelters. Sirens blared across Jerusalem, as the Hamas rocket attacks continue. Israel’s all-out offensive was expected Friday or Saturday, but has still been delayed, with rain and bad weather also being among the list of reasons cited as of Monday.

But this gave time for a flurry of international diplomacy as the death toll soars on both sides. The Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistic has said the death toll among Palestinians and the West bank is now at its highest in two decades for 2023, as deaths from this round of fighting has surpassed 3,000. Deaths in Israel have surpassed 1,400 – with over 4,100 Israelis wounded.

US officials have reportedly been racing to contain the conflict and to find some kind of off-ramp, which would lead to freeing of hostages held in Gaza. All of this has reportedly included back-channel talks with Iran. On Monday, Iran’s Foreign Ministry announced that Hamas is prepared to release the hostages if Israel halts its ongoing bombardment of the Gaza Strip:

Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Nasser Kanaani said Hamas officials “stated that they are ready to take necessary measures to release the citizens and civilians held by resistant groups, but their point was that such measures require preparations that are impossible under daily bombardment by the Zionists against various parts of Gaza,” The Associated Press reported.

But still the Iranian statement warned that Hamas still has “no problem to continue resisting.” Israel has meanwhile denied that it has plans for any ceasefire.

While Biden is still said to be mulling a visit to Israel, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin is now ratcheting up his own diplomatic efforts. “Russian President Vladimir Putin entered the fevered diplomatic fray of the Middle East on Monday, speaking to five of the major players including Iran and leading Arab powers in an attempt to secure a ceasefire in the war between Israel and Hamas,” Reuters reports.

“Russia, which has relationships with Iran, Hamas, major Arab powers as well as with the Palestinians and with Israel, has repeatedly said the United States and the West have ignored the need for an independent Palestinian state within 1967 borders.”

Putin has condemned the soaring death toll in Gaza, warning against the “catastrophic death toll” in Gaza which he says is looking likely given Israel’s reported invasion plans.

* * *

Summary:

Israeli military spokesperson continued to confirm that forces are preparing to implement a wide range of operational offensive plans which include combined coordinated strikes from the air, sea and land, while their goal is to completely destroy the governing and military capabilities of Hamas and other terrorist organisations. Furthermore, the spokesman said the operation will take a long time and that residents of Gaza should leave and not return until told to for their own safety but Hamas has been preventing people from leaving, according to Reuters.

At least 199 people are being held hostage by Hamas, according to Israeli officials who said on Monday that they had intelligence about the whereabouts of hostages taken on Oct. 7. Hamas has said that 22 hostages have died in Israeli retaliatory bombing of Gaza, a claim that couldn’t be verified.

Israeli military spokesperson said Hezbollah is escalating the situation on the Lebanon border to hinder the Gaza counter-offensive and Israel is prepared to fight on two fronts and even more if required, while an Israeli military spokesman said more than 600,000 Gazans have relocated southwards and that more than 200 Hamas members in the West Bank were detained since October 7th.

Israeli PM Netanyahu’s national security adviser said Israel is not trying to be drawn into a two-front war and that Hezbollah’s actions are under the escalation threshold so far, while the adviser added they hope Hezbollah won’t de facto bring about the destruction of Lebanon, according to Reuters.

Additionally, Iran is becoming even more vocal as President Raisi said in a phone call with French President Macron that “the Zionist regime’s actions are a reminder of Nazi actions”, while he also stated that Palestinian resistance groups make their own decisions and urged France to prevent oppression and injustice, according to Reuters.

US President Biden said deploying US troops in the Middle East war is not necessary and Israel has one of the finest fighting forces, while he is confident Israel is going to act under the rules of war and said it would be a mistake for Israel to occupy Gaza. Biden stated he believes Hamas must be eliminated entirely but said there must be a path to a Palestinian state and his message to Iran is don’t come across the border and don’t escalate the war, while it was also reported that President Biden is considering visiting Israel in the coming days.

US National Security Adviser Sullivan said the US does not have new intelligence that the threat on the ground is different today and there is a risk of conflict escalation. Sullivan added that they cannot rule out that Iran would choose to get directly engaged in some way and that the US is concerned about proxy forces, Lebanon’s Hezbollah and Iran, according to a CBS interview.

US Secretary of State Blinken will head back to Israel on Monday for further consultations with Israeli leaders.

Latest Developments

Iran Says Hamas Is Ready to Release Hostages but Can’t Do So Under Israeli Bombing

And in perhaps the most positive news of the day, The Wall Street Journal reports that Hamas is ready to release hostages held in Gaza but isn’t able to do so under Israeli bombing, an official from Iran, a major Hamas backer, said Monday.

Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Nasser Kanaani said that any move to free the civilians would “require preparations that are impossible under daily bombardment by the Zionists against various parts of Gaza.”

Not exactly a promise, but perhaps some diplomatic progress.

* * *

Hamas Officials Killed, Israel Military Says

Several Hamas officials, including those in the military and financial sectors, have been killed, Israeli Defense Forces spokesman Jonathan Conricus said in a session with journalists on the X social media platform.

Conricus said Hamas is trying to hide behind civilians as Israel hunts its commanders. “We are not trying to kill civilians. We are at war with Hamas,” he said.

One Israeli civilian was killed by anti-tank missiles fired across the border from Lebanon, he said.

* * *

Iranian Threats Escalate

Iranian Foreign Minister said “If the Zionist aggressions do not stop, the hands of all parties in the region are on the trigger” and warned heavy losses will be inflicted on the US if the scope of the Gaza war widens. Iran’s Foreign Minister also said that Iran will not remain an observer in this situation and informed Israel via its allies that ‘tomorrow will be too late’ if its crimes in Gaza continue.

Iran has reportedly made no decision about whether to open a new front against Israel, according to an Iranian source close to the government, but added that a meeting was to be held on Sunday night in a Hezbollah command center in Lebanon, NYT reported.

Iran’s mission to the UN said if Israel’s “war crimes, genocide” is not halted immediately, the situation could ricochet far-reaching consequences.

* * *

Biden Is Considering Visit to Israel

Biden is considering a trip to Israel after being invited in a phone call with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, according to two people familiar with the internal discussions.

No decision about whether to travel to Israel has yet been made, the people said. Adrienne Watson, a spokesperson for the National Security Council, said in a statement the White House did not have travel to announce.

Biden stressed his belief that Israel would act by the rules of war and that innocent civilians would have access to medicine, food and water in an interview with CBS News’s “60 Minutes.” He said he didn’t believe Israel should control the territory long-term, saying instead the territory should be governed by “a Palestinian authority.”

“I think it’d be a big mistake,” Biden said. “Look, what happened in Gaza, in my view, is Hamas and the extreme elements of Hamas don’t represent all the Palestinian people.”

* * *

Thirty US Citizens Confirmed Dead

The State Department confirmed the deaths of 30 US citizens since the violence started and another 13 American nationals remain unaccounted for, according to a spokesperson.

The government is working to determine the whereabouts of the missing Americans and is advising the Israeli government on hostage recovery efforts.

* * *

Egyptian Border Tensions Grow

Egypt is facing intense pressure to allow refugees in neighboring Gaza to cross the border and escape an expected Israeli ground invasion in the strip. Central to such a move is Rafah, the only civilian land crossing in Gaza that Israel doesn’t control.

As The Wall Street Journal reports, Egypt has appeared willing to let foreign citizens through the crossing but has been reluctant to allow a flood of Palestinian refugees enter, citing security threats.

A deal to open the border crossing has been held up, however, by Egyptian concerns that Israel hadn’t given assurances it would pause airstrikes and by Israeli insistence that trucks entering via Egypt be thoroughly searched, Egyptian officials said.

“Unfortunately, Israel has not yet allowed humanitarian aid to enter Gaza,” Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry told reporters in Cairo. The Israeli prime minister’s office declined to comment.

“We anticipate that the situation at the Rafah crossing will remain fluid and unpredictable and it is unclear whether, or for how long, travelers will be permitted to transit the crossing,” the U.S. Embassy in Egypt said. “There may be very little notice if the crossing opens and it may only open for a limited time.

* * *

Developing…

By Jan-Patrick Barnert, Bloomberg Markets Live reporter and strategist

With uncertainty all around, no clear investor positioning and earnings season just kicking off, predicting the near-term direction of the stock market is turning into a coin flip.

Accurately calling the market is never easy, but there’s often a narrative pointing in one direction or the other. Right now, however, there’s too many moving parts — including the conflict in the Middle East, bond market volatility and the trajectory of inflation and interest rates. Investor caution ahead of a difficult-to-predict company results season is also muddying the picture.

Recent market moves have reflected the lack of conviction among traders. A 3% upswing for European stocks from their recent low faded on Friday after disappointing US inflation data added to escalating geopolitical tensions, just at a point when more positive news was needed to tip the balance in favor of a rally.

Last week’s hotter-than-expected US data “did underscore our skepticism for the US Federal Reserve’s soft-landing economic forecasts,” said Pimco US economist Tiffany Wilding. “We’ve been skeptical that the Fed would actually deliver the hike projected in the second half of 2023 by the majority of Fed officials, but at this point we are leaning toward them getting it in despite the recent tightening in financial conditions.” However, she says it remains a “close call.”

It all leaves the bigger picture for stocks in a tricky spot. As the chart shows, recent upward moves haven’t been able to breach the current downtrend, suggesting that even when momentum has improved, it hasn’t been strong enough to push the market higher. Other assets such as the US dollar and bonds are also at key thresholds.

With major benchmarks stuck in short-term downtrends, a broad range of buyers may be needed to convincingly change the narrative. But fundamental investors are likely to be cautious ahead of the earnings season, which in turn has to provide evidence that the majority of EPS compression is indeed behind us.

That’s leaving a huge part of the price action to those with more systematic approaches. Those players might be getting near a point where they start to buy back and short cover their positions after the de-risking seen over the past few months. And while that has the potential to create some form of what trading desks call synthetic gamma — pushing markets higher in a kind of feedback loop — it isn’t clear if that would be enough for a sustained rally.

That sort of positioning is a reason that stocks and treasuries could both squeeze higher in a 4Q Santa Rally, according to Nomura strategist Charlie McElligott. But the danger of an “everything higher” scenario is that it may get crowded “and could thus easily go wrong-way with weak hands moving into the trade who may tap at the first signs of reversal.”