Voters in New Zealand on Saturday ousted the party once led by Jacinda Ardern, and have instead elected the country’s most conservative government in decades.

Turns out forcing your citizens to take vaccines, decreeing state news the only ‘truth,’ and locking up peaceful protesters opposed pandemic authoritarianism did not go over well.

On Saturday, conservative Christopher Luxon was elected New Zealand’s next prime minister. While the exact makeup of Luxon’s government has yet to be determined, his center-right National party looks set to form a coalition government with one or two minor parties.

The National Party will likely combine its indicated 50 seats with the ACT party (11 seats), to give them 61 seats, providing a slim majority in the 121-seat New Zealand parliament. As Goldman notes, the results are largely in line with pre-election polling, with the incumbent Labour party on track to lose their outright majority in parliament for the first time since 2017.

“You have reached for hope and you have voted for change,” Luxon told supporters to rapturous applause at an event in Auckland, alongside his wife Amanda and their children.

Outgoing Prime Mininster Chris Hipkins, who’s held the job for nine months following the abrupt resignation of Jacinda Ardern, told supporters late Saturday that he’d called Luxon to concede.

Hipkins said that while the result wasn’t his desired outcome, “I want you to be proud of what we achieved over the last six years,” he told supporters in Wellington.

On the economic front, Goldman notes that Luxon’s party has vowed to reduce effective tax rates on incomes and investment parties. And while National has pledged to offset the fiscal impact of tax cuts with savings elsewhere, Goldman sees the risks as “skewed to more stimulatory fiscal policy in 2024” vs New Zealand’s current fiscal projections.

The proposed tax cuts and new spending amounts to around 0.8% of annual GDP, which would boost household disposable income by around 1.5% and also provide a tailwind to house prices in 2024. While National has pledged to offset the new spending and lower taxes with a reduction in spending and new taxes, overall we view the risks as skewed to more fiscal stimulus (compared to the current fiscal projections) and additional rate hikes from the RBNZ (GSe: base case on hold at 5.5%).

Luxon has also addressed crime in New Zealand, telling supporters that it’s “out of control,” adding “And we are going to restore law and order, and we are going to restore personal responsibility.”

He’s also vowed to fix the capital’s traffic woes with a new tunnel project.

Authored by Autumn Spredemann via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Cutting down trees to manage wildfires isn’t a new thing, although it remains a hotly debated practice.

Tree thinning is a disputed procedure that has drawn as much criticism within the environmental community as support. Many scientists, researchers, and conservationists are against it, saying tree thinning can even worsen wildfires.

However, America’s woodlands have been culled for more than two decades for fire management. Now, climate activists are jumping into the conversation with a “carbon capture” argument for tree thinning.

Activists such as Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates have thrown their weight, and checkbooks, behind the practice of cutting down trees and burying them to address fears over carbon emissions.

Through his foundation Breakthrough Energy Ventures, Mr. Gates is a part of the $6.6 million seed investor pool backing Kodama Systems in its proposal to remove trees in California’s fire-challenged woodlands and bury them in Nevada to sequester carbon dioxide (CO2).

“We must dramatically accelerate forest thinning treatments,” the Boston-based firm says on its website. Kodama calls itself a “technology-driven forest restoration service.”

Mr. Gates is well known for his headline-grabbing methods of addressing his climate concerns—from buying up vast swaths of U.S. farmland to backing wild-card experiments such as solar geoengineering and, most recently, criticizing tree planting as a viable means of reducing CO2.

During The New York Times Climate Forward Summit in September, the billionaire didn’t hesitate to share his thoughts on the role of planting trees to mitigate climate concerns, calling it “complete nonsense.”

In an interview with NY Times reporter David Gelles, Mr. Gates responded dismissively to the idea that planting more trees can reverse adverse climate effects.

“That’s complete nonsense … I mean, are we the science people, or are we the idiots?” Mr. Gates asked rhetorically.

Critics are quick to point out holes in the logic surrounding the claimed benefits of culling trees and burying them.

“This is a spectacularly bad and counter-productive idea,” Chad Hanson, a research ecologist and co-founder of the John Muir Project, told The Epoch Times.

He says existing trees and forests are “by far, our best and most effective means” to reduce any “excess of carbon in our atmosphere.”

Additionally, selective culling poses a risk to old-growth trees, which research indicates capture vastly more atmospheric carbon than their younger counterparts.

Living trees store a massive amount of atmospheric carbon. One estimate puts the CO2 storage value of U.S. forests and grasslands at 866 million metric tons per year. For perspective, that equates to the annual emissions from 50 million gasoline- or diesel-fueled vehicles.

Some research does support the theory that burying debris from cut trees can work as a form of carbon capture. One 2019 study showed that storing wood biomass can remove billions of tons of carbon annually.

“Trees continue to sequester and store more and more carbon as they get older, and this is true no matter how old they get,” Mr. Hanson said in countering that point. “Cutting existing trees and burying them eliminates their ability to draw down and reduce atmospheric carbon.”

No in-depth analysis exists on the asserted benefits or secondary environmental effects of tree thinning and debris storage.

“Research related to sustainability in the field of social and environmental impacts of carbon capture has not been done enough and this field of studies is still immature,” a study published in Science Direct states.

On its website, Kodama Systems notes that carbon accounting frameworks are being developed, but didn’t offer further details.

Representatives of Kodama didn’t respond to a request by The Epoch Times for comment.

The argument to leave mature forests and dense canopy intact—strictly for CO2 sequestration—has support from top scientific researchers.

William Moomaw, founding director of the Center for International Environment and Resource Policy at Tufts University’s Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, is among what he calls the “proforestation” school of thought on storing atmospheric carbon.

He’s an avid supporter of the planting of trees and advocates for leaving older and middle-aged forests alone, because of their superior carbon storage abilities.

“The most effective thing that we can do is to allow trees that are already planted, that are already growing, to continue growing to reach their full ecological potential, to store carbon, and develop a forest that has its full complement of environmental services,” Mr. Moomaw said during a 2019 interview with Yale Environment 360.

The U.S. Forest Service has made selective tree culling a critical part of its 10-year plan for wildfire management.

Officials hope to use the method on millions of forested acres by 2030.

“We estimate that a total of 50 million acres of forests in the U.S. need hazardous fuels and forest health treatments to address the growing wildfire crisis,” U.S. Forest Service spokesman John Winn told The Epoch Times.

He said 20 million of the acres are on national forests and grasslands, and 30 million acres are on other lands.

“Nearly a quarter of the contiguous U.S. remains at moderate to very high risk of severe wildfires,” Mr. Winn said.

He said some studies support tree thinning as a tool in forest fire mitigation.

Read more here…

George Soros, whose empire and its tentacles have worked to flood Western nations with migrants and cause chaos in America through soft-on-crime DAs, once slammed the United States for supporting Israel and not recognizing Hamas after the militant organization gained control over the Gaza strip.

In a 2007 op-ed in FT, Soros called on the Bush administration and Israel to work together with Hamas instead of refuting its authority, and installing a blockade around the Palestinian territory to reject Hamas’s primary mission of establishing a Palestinian state through violent methods with Jerusalem as its capital.

“Israel, with strong US backing, refused to recognize the democratically elected Hamas government and withheld payment of the millions in taxes collected by the Israelis on its behalf,” wrote Soros, suggesting the move would lead to worsening relations in the region.

“If Israel had accepted the results of the election, that might have strengthened the more moderate political wing,” Soros added. “Unfortunately, the ideology of the ‘war on terror’ does not permit such subtle distinctions.”

Hamas has likewise refused to acknowledge the existence of the Jewish state, which Soros said Israel should get over.

“The sticking-point is Hamas’s unwillingness to recognize the existence of Israel, but that could be made a condition for an eventual settlement rather than a precondition for negotiations,” he wrote, adding that whatever the case, the US and Israel should negotiate with Hamas.

“Defenders of the current policy argue that Israel cannot afford to negotiate from a position of weakness. But Israel’s position is unlikely to improve as long as it pursues its current course,” Soros’s op-ed continued, citing decades of violence between Jews and Palestinians, and calling on Israel to forego future military action which the US should support.

“Demonstrating military superiority is not sufficient as a policy for dealing with the Palestinian problem,” wrote Soros. “It would be tragic to miss out on that prospect because the Bush administration is mired in the ideology of the war on terror.”

As of Saturday, an estimated 3,200 people have died on both sides after Hamas invaded Israel last weekend, and Israel responded. Over one million Palestinians in northern Gaza have faced an Israeli deadline to flee south. Thus far, Israel has held back from launching a “significant” ground operation.

By Peter Tchir of Academy Securities

A Difficult Week on Many Fronts

Israel, Hamas, and the Middle East remain front and center in our geopolitical engagements. They have dominated our in-person conversations, our calls, and video conferences. Things are evolving rapidly, and we are doing our best to give you our understanding of the situation and how it is likely to evolve (along with other less likely, but plausible outcomes).
We understand that our clients have many (and often varying) opinions on the war. For many, including those at Academy Securities, this hits us on a very personal level.

I apologize in advance if anything we say or write comes off as condescending, one-sided, or even superficial. That is not our intent. Our intent is to take our decades of service in the region and our connections at the political and military levels (both domestic and foreign) and provide you with our educated views on the situation. On the “macro” side of things, we have the luxury of talking to so many clients that we feel we can offer insights into how to think about the war in terms of market risk. That is the goal, and any failure to come across the right way in doing that is a failure on my part. We have limited space and are acting on the best available information that we have. Please bear with us and feel free to respond to our work. Hopefully, it helps you navigate yet another treacherous geopolitical situation.

The Middle East

Yes, this is a war between Israel and Hamas, but the conflict (and what this potentially means for the global economy) goes well beyond that.

We have published multiple SITREPs on the subject that can be found here. We also recently produced a podcast where, in addition to General (ret.) Robeson, we were able to introduce our latest team member, Maria Donnelly. Academy has also had the opportunity to discuss this on multiple radio and TV programs.

The consensus view right now (amongst the Geopolitical Intelligence Group) is that Israel’s response will be one of controlled, but total victory. This means that Israel will eradicate Hamas as an enemy that is capable of inflicting damage to Israel. There will not be “half” measures (or room for any other conclusion from the Israeli standpoint) other than the elimination of Hamas as a threat to its citizens and borders. They have the military strength and support to accomplish this. At the same time, the destruction of Hamas will be as “precise” as possible. Significant efforts will be made to avoid civilian casualties. Given the nature of the defensive positions, the type of fighting that is likely to occur, the need to minimize risk to their soldiers, and the additional complications posed by the taking of hostages, this is a difficult task and will not be 100% successful. That is the tightrope Israel is walking as they plan their battle strategies to eliminate this threat. As this war evolves, our views on the most likely scenarios will evolve with it, but that is the current overall view.

The first big wildcard (with respect to potential escalation) is Iran. I do not say this lightly, but given the frequency in which it comes up, it needs to be said. “There is almost no way that Hamas organized this attack without the help of Iran.” That is not a direct quote from any particular GIG member, but it encapsulates the strong consensus view that at some level, Iran helped Hamas engineer this attack. That is my working principle based on what our GIG is telling me. Given this, how things evolve with respect to Iran will be critical.

So far there is no “official” intelligence or claim of direct involvement. That is allowing the “status quo” to continue. The world is still “looking the other way” as Iran sells sanctioned oil, since it keeps global oil prices lower than they would be otherwise. Again, you are unlikely to see “official” reports of turning a blind eye to this, but given the conversations here, I am convinced that this is occurring. There is theoretically some chance that Iran will denounce Hamas and signal that they will withdraw support for Hezbollah and other radical groups in the region, but that seems highly unlikely. So, the risk remains that Iran could take a more prominent role in escalating the conflict. That would be bad for the safety of the region and for oil prices, as we would then need to “really” enforce the sanctions. Oil prices would rise due to more serious enforcement of sanctions and because of the increased risk of destruction in the region.

My assessment is that while this is not yet the “likely” case, it is pretty darn close, which means the markets might be underpricing the risk. If you see headlines indicating a more direct involvement of Iran, expect oil prices to surge, Treasury yields to drop (flight to safety will overwhelm oil price increases), and risky assets (credit spreads and equities) to wobble again.

Saudi Arabia is the next most important nation to watch. Again, this is coming from the GIG members, and their years of experience and connections. They believe that the timing of the attack was likely designed to slow down or derail Saudi Arabia’s “normalization” of its relationship with Israel. The Abraham Accords have the potential to change the landscape of the Middle East (for the better, from a “Western” perspective). The Saudis, while at odds with Iran, had historically not been as close to Israel as they have become more recently. Is this a step to disrupt that progression? Just as many believe that Putin had hoped to fracture NATO (he failed miserably, and arguably has strengthened it), was this attack a final attempt to stifle that shift in politics in the Middle East? Will it also fail, like Putin’s attempts with NATO?

This is a huge potential wildcard. On the positive side, the Saudis had been making encouraging progress (from an Israeli standpoint). Our GIG members who have been to the region talk about the amazing shifts in the Kingdom as they attempt to modernize. The Saudis have been developing a post-oil economy for decades and continue to make progress on that front. While they still have many policies that would be viewed as “restrictive” by the West, they have been reducing those restrictions at an astonishing pace. They did increase oil production, initially, when asked by the U.S. to help battle inflation. There are reasons to be optimistic. On the negative side, they have cut back on oil production of late. They also just began diplomatic discussions with Iran (China apparently played a key role in this). Ultimately, much of Saudi Arabia’s reaction over time could be shaped not just by Israel’s response, but also by how that response is received by the media (and, more importantly, social media) in the Kingdom and the region. Our working assumption is that the Saudis want to continue on the “progressive” path, and it will take a lot of backlash from Israel’s response to deter them from that path. This is likely one of the key reasons why Israel is being careful in planning and executing their full military response. It would be very positive for the West and the region if the Saudis do not waver. There is even an outside chance that the Saudis could increase oil production to take advantage of the rise in prices, and to show support (indirectly) for the West and Israel’s allies. That might be a step too far for the Saudis, at least right now, but they could eventually play a key role here.

China has been more critical of Hamas than it is of Putin. There is a chance that China could play a positive role in the region. China, unlike the U.S., is communicating with all sides. They have been taking on a more active role in global hotspots. While the GIG was not a fan (to say the least) of their proposed peace plan for Russia and Ukraine, it is undeniable that they are having a greater influence in geopolitics than before. There is a chance that China enables all sides to do something that is “positive” for the region and the globe. They don’t seem to have any incentive to make things worse, so we view their involvement in the region as being potentially positive right now.

Russia. This attack almost makes me want to revisit the recent spate of coups in Africa. The U.S. is not officially recognizing some of the coups, as that would require (by law) pulling out of those countries, at least on the diplomatic front. This action would not further our agenda of helping those countries and protecting our interests in Africa. The timing of higher oil prices certainly doesn’t hurt Russia’s position in the world, as Europe is already bracing for winter. Russia is not a direct actor in the current events in the Middle East, but it is certainly a beneficiary.

The Middle East – Bottom Line

Given the scope of the attacks and the bloodshed, the developments of the week went about as well as they could from a market perspective.

• Watch Israel’s response. A thorough, but cautious response is likely best for the global economy and markets.
• If Iran is identified as being directly involved, or the West aggressively ties Iran to the events in the region, watch out for escalation.
• The Saudis could help with oil production, which would be great for prices (and on the “signaling” front). The risk is that they could start to reverse some of the pro-Western/pro-Israel steps that they have been taking lately.

Oil will rise with escalation and decline with the “status quo” despite how awful that status quo is.

Yields will drop with escalation, and hold steady, unless something surprising happens in the region that causes them to rise. The strong link between oil and yields is quite weak right now and will likely mean that they will move in opposite directions rather than in the same direction.

Risk assets will struggle to rally, as the downside risk does not seem to be fully priced in.

A Difficult Week on the Inflation Front

Inflation data indicated risks that the slowdown has stopped or even reversed. Inflation expectations popped in the University of Michigan CONsumer CONfidence survey. Inflation expectations in that survey are highly correlated to gas prices, and future expectations of the economy are correlated to recent stock market performance – so take the data with a grain of salt.

In a display that simultaneously shows the unfortunate consequences of the UK’s longstanding open immigration policies as well as the ideologically bizarre alliance between leftist activists and Islamic groups, an estimated tens-of-thousands of protesters marched this week in support of the recent attacks by Hamas on Israeli civilians, while making demands for a “free Palestinian state.”

NEW: Thousands of pro-Palestine / anti-Israel protesters gather in London just one week after Hamas butchered innocent men, women and children.

Police are threatening to arrest anyone who shows support for Hamas.

Protests are beginning to turn violent in London as the police… pic.twitter.com/hXFtW1molV

— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) October 14, 2023

A large contingent of protesters were made up of Antifa activists, who told their member to “mask up” to avoid identification.  

Antifa members were part of the London Palestine protest on Oct. 14. They stood out for being white people who covered their faces and stuck together. They claim they are against all gods and nations but they ally themselves with Islamists & militant Palestinian nationalists. pic.twitter.com/Do8s0rgeh6

— Andy Ngô 🏳️‍🌈 (@MrAndyNgo) October 15, 2023

Reports of pro-Palestinians swarming and in some cases attacking counter-protesters are increasing.  UK police seem to be ill equipped to deal with crowds should they turn violent, with many not even wearing helmets to prevent head injury.   

Breaking: A riot nearly broke out when attendees of the London Palestine protest swarmed a dissident Iranian display near Whitehall that showed support for Israel, the UK and Ukraine. They tried tearing down the Israeli flag.

Protesters called the liberal dissident Iranians… pic.twitter.com/dp4xW5QEKa

— Andy Ngô 🏳️‍🌈 (@MrAndyNgo) October 14, 2023

The situation throughout Europe and the UK is growing increasingly chaotic; tens of millions of Muslim migrants and non-citizens currently reside in the region

Authored by Ronni Stoeferle via GoldSwitzerland.com,

The reshaping of the world economy and the global (political) order is in full swing.

It is a long process, the concrete outcome of which is uncertain in advance and associated with numerous imponderables. Nevertheless, there are powerful factors, such as the shift in economic, demographic and military weight, that are driving the readjustment in the (geo)political arena. And this readjustment is also reflected in the change in gold flows. They are increasingly shifting from West to East, since “Gold goes where the money is,” as James Steel pointedly put it.

1. The central banks of the states of the East are among the strongest buyers of gold – also within the West

This is also reflected in the continuing enthusiasm of central banks for gold, especially in non-Western countries. 2022 saw the largest purchases of gold by central banks since records began more than 70 years ago, at 1,136 tons. The first half of 2023 saw a continuation of this trend. Despite a weaker second quarter, central bank purchases in the first half of the year set a new half-year record. Central banks increased their gold reserves by a total of 378 tons from January to June. The previous half-year record from 2019 was thus slightly exceeded. China made the largest purchases, followed by Singapore, Poland, India and the Czech Republic. So even in the West, it was countries in the East that made additional purchases.

The following chart shows the extent to which institutional demand for gold has shifted to the East. It compares the cumulative gold sales of Western central banks with the cumulative gold purchases of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO or SOC) since 2001.

Looking at the BRICS, we also see a striking overlap, with central banks from four of the five BRICS countries – Brazil, Russia, India and China – buying a cumulative 2,932 tonnes of gold over 2010–2022.

2. Holdings of US Treasuries are reduced

In turn, the BRICS continue to reduce their share of the soaring US government debt. In other words, gold is becoming more and more interesting as a reserve asset because US Treasuries have been becoming less and less interesting as a currency reserve for more than a decade. The militarization of money by freezing Russia’s foreign exchange reserves just days after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in late February 2022 added emphasis to this process, but did not kick it off.

The BRICS now hold only 4.1 percent of all US government debt, compared with 10.4 percent in January 2012. That is a decline of more than 60 percent. The rest of the world has reduced its exposure to US government debt by much less. In January 2012, the rest of the world held 22.0 percent of all US government debt on their books; currently, they hold 19.3 percent. That is a decrease of more than 12 percent.

3. The East is expanding its infrastructure for gold trading

However, the East is not only stocking up on gold and mining gold itself on a large scale. China and Russia have ranked among the top 3 gold producing nations for years.

Countries such as China, the United Arab Emirates and even Russia are expanding their gold trading infrastructure. This is to establish a permanent infrastructure for the detour of gold trading from gold trading centers in the West such as London, New York and Zurich. This testifies to the changing understanding of roles: The East increasingly no longer sees itself as a customer of Western infrastructures, but offers the infrastructure itself.

Key developments include:

• SGE & SFO NRA: Cooperation between the Chinese and Russian gold markets

For some time now, China and Russia have been working hard to link their gold markets through cooperation between the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) and the Russian financial authority, the National Financial Association (NFA). The NFA is a Russian professional association representing the entire Russian financial sector, including the Russian precious metals market.

In the face of Western sanctions, Russian gold exports to China have already surged since mid-2022. As three Russian banks – VTB, Sberbank and Otkritie – are already members of the SGE International Board of the SGE, which was founded in 2014, this cooperation between the gold markets of Russia and China is likely to intensify in the future.

• Memberships in gold-related institutions

As gold flows from west to east and the importance of eastern gold markets increases, these markets will also have greater representation and influence in the global institutions that represent the gold market, such as the LBMA and the World Gold Council (WGC).

In 2009, only six Chinese refineries were on the LBMA’s Good Delivery List, but now there are thirteen. While just 15 years ago there was only one regular (full) member of the LBMA from China, the Bank of China, there are now seven. China’s growing influence is also reflected in the World Gold Council. In February 2009, only one Chinese gold producer was a member of the WGC; now there are four.

• India International Bullion Exchange (IIBX)

In addition to its sophisticated OTC gold trading market, India has also established a trading infrastructure for gold futures contracts on the Multi Commodity Exchange of India Limited (MCX). In July 2022, the India International Bullion Exchange (IIBX), supported by the Indian government, was officially opened for trading spot gold contracts backed by physical metal. IIBX is located in a special economic zone in GIFT City in the Indian state of Gujarat, and the gold underlying the contracts is stored there. One goal of IIBX is to allow qualified buyers to import gold directly into India without the need for banks or authorized agencies. So far, however, trading volumes have been minimal.

• Establishment of a Moscow World Standard

At the end of February 2022, when sanctions against Russia were imposed by the West immediately after the start of the Ukraine war, the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) excluded the three Russian banks VTB, Sovkombank and Otkritie. A few days later, the LBMA removed all six Russian precious metals refiners from the LBMA Good Delivery List and the CME Group followed suit, removing the same refiners from the list of approved COMEX refiners.

As a result, Moscow announced in July 2022 that a new infrastructure for precious metals trading independent of the LBMA and COMEX would be established. According to Moscow, this is intended to break the supremacy of London and New York in global precious metals pricing. This proposal calls for the introduction of a Moscow World Standard (MWS) for precious metals trading, similar to the LBMA’s Good Delivery List, the establishment of a new international precious metals exchange in Moscow based on the MWS, the Moscow International Precious Metals Exchange, and the creation of a new gold price fixing based on the MWS so as to establish gold prices and reference prices different from those of the LBMA and COMEX.

4. Private gold demand shifts to the east

EAST’S increased interest in gold is also evident in the non-governmental sector. Chinese consumer demand, for example, increased from 292.6 tons to 824.9 tons (2022) since the turn of the millennium. This is an increase of 181%. Annual consumer demand in India has also increased since the turn of the millennium, albeit from an already high level in 2000. China and India, which together accounted for only 28.7% of consumer demand in 2000, account for almost half of global consumer demand (48.4%) in 2022 and together acquired 1,600 tons of gold last year.

Source: World Gold Council, Incrementum AG

Recent developments point in the same direction. In the first eight months of the current year, Asian gold ETFs increased their holdings by 7.7%, while North America and Europe recorded outflows of 2.3% and 6.1%, respectively. Significantly, in the bars and coins demand segment, Turkey and Iran replaced Germany and Switzerland in the top 5 in the first half of the year. China now leads this sub-segment of gold demand – in the first half of 2022, Germany was still in the lead – followed by Turkey, the US, India and Iran. This is because while demand for bars and coins in Turkey shot up from 9.5 tons to 47.6 tons in the second quarter of 2023, it fell by around three quarters in Germany.

5. The price of gold in currencies of the East has increased significantly

As of the end of September, gold was 14.6% higher in Indian rupees than at the beginning of 2022, 18.0% higher in Chinese renminbi, 34.3% higher in Russian rubles, 22.1% higher in South African rand (all left-hand side) and 114.0% higher in Turkish lira (right-hand side). Gold thus impressively demonstrates its value-preserving properties in difficult (geo)political and macroeconomic situations in these countries.

The significantly increased premium on the gold price in China since July is an unmistakable sign that there is a structural shortage of gold in the Chinese market and thus an expression of the strong demand for gold in the Middle Kingdom, which is struggling with profound economic problems.

Conclusion

This shift in demand from West to East can be observed not only among governments or government-related entities, but also among institutional and private investors. Gold is flowing to where it is most valued and where economic prosperity and savings rates have increased. In the medium term, the shift in demand should therefore find support from the higher growth prospects in Asia and the Middle East. “Ohne Geld, ka Musi” (“Without money, no music”) – this is how the vernacular formulates this economic truism in German. And as the IMF’s most recent economic growth forecast indicates, the sub-region of emerging and developing Asia will grow at a projected 5.2% this year and 4.8% next year, while the West will grow much less strongly. This will also lead to a shift in influence on pricing from West to East.

Summary:

After giving the northern Gaza strip an evacuation ultimatum on Friday, Israel has so far withheld from launching a “significant” ground operation, with some speculating that requests from the US to evacuate all US citizens out of Palestine ahead of the invasion is what is holding Israel back. Meanwhile, Iran’s foreign minister on Saturday said that if Israeli “war crimes & genocide” are not stopped, the war might expand to other parts of the Middle East if Hezbollah joins the battle, and that would make Israel suffer “a huge earthquake.” Meanwhile, Axios reported that Tehran has sent Jerusalem a message through the UN that it will intervene if the campaign in Gaza continues, and particularly if it launches a ground offensive.

This was followed by news Sunday morning that the US has been backchanneling with Iran in recent days to warn against escalating the conflict in Israel (after all, Biden can’t afford to lose those sanctioned Iranian oil exports whose re-embargo would promptly send the price of oil above $100).

Another reason why Israel may be waiting: the Pentagon confirmed that it has ordered a second carrier strike group to the eastern Mediterranean Sea after a first carrier strike group, led by the USS Gerald R. Ford, arrived off the coast of Israel last week.

Background:

On Saturday, the Israeli army said it’s making preparations for “significant ground operations” in Gaza, with the Israel Defense Forces saying in a statement that the next phase of the war can include a coordinated land, sea and air assault.

Israel has called up a record 300,000 reservists and has been pounding Gaza after the unprecedented incursion in which more than 1,000 Hamas fighters swept across the border and attacked Israeli military posts, bases and settlements. More than 1,300 Israelis died, mostly civilians, and up to 150 people were abducted and taken into Gaza. More than 1,900 Palestinians have been killed in the Israeli bombing campaign as fears mount of major casualties once Israel sends troops into the crowded coastal strip, home to 2.3 million people. Israel on Friday gave 24 hours for more than 1 million Palestinians to evacuate their homes in Gaza.

Separately, Israel confirmed for the first time that there were intelligence indications of something happening in Gaza two hours before the attacks last week. The head of Shin Bet, Israel’s internal security service, spoke with military personnel about the reports, said Tzachi Hanegbi, head of Israel’s National Security Council. “Both sides assessed that this is something other than it turned out to be,” he said.

Meanwhile, Hamas, which has been designated as a terrorist group by the US and the European Union, said Israeli air strikes killed another nine of its hostages in the past 24 hours, raising the total to 26. Many governments, including the US and European countries, are rushing to evacuate citizens in anticipation of an Israeli incursion into Gaza, though the Rafah border crossing out of Gaza to Egypt was reported to be closed to foreign nationals Saturday.

On the diplomatic front, Joe Biden’s team has voiced anxiety about Israel’s 24-hour evacuation demand, a deadline that the European Union and the United Nations called unrealistic. On Friday, Biden said people shouldn’t “lose sight of the fact that the overwhelming majority of Palestinians had nothing to do with Hamas” something Biden tweeted on Sunday morning.

We must not lose sight of the fact that the overwhelming majority of Palestinians had nothing to do with Hamas’s appalling attacks, and are suffering as a result of them.

— President Biden (@POTUS) October 15, 2023

The US Embassy in Israel said it’s “working on potential options for departure from Gaza.” US citizens living in or visiting Gaza may be allowed to leave on Saturday, according to a US official. The embassy said it’s facilitating more chartered evacuation flights from Tel Aviv’s Ben Gurion Airport and urged US citizens and immediate family members to use them “while they are available.” The US government also said it is assisting US nationals and their immediate family members with a valid travel document to depart Haifa via sea for Cyprus on Oct. 16, according to a statement on the US Embassy in Israel website.

The State Department in Washington authorized the departure of non-emergency embassy personnel on Friday, citing an “unpredictable security situation.” With commercial flights to Israel disrupted, European countries such as France and Germany also have been providing planes to get their citizens out of the region.

Latest Developments:

Iran’s foreign minister on Saturday called on Israel to stop its attacks on Gaza, warning that the war might expand to other parts of the Middle East if Hezbollah joins the battle, and that would make Israel suffer “a huge earthquake.” Hossein Amirabdollahian told reporters in Beirut that Lebanon’s Hezbollah terror group has taken all war scenarios into consideration and Israel should stop its attacks on Gaza as soon as possible. Meanwhile, the Axios news site reported that Tehran has sent Jerusalem a message through the UN that it will intervene if the campaign in Gaza continues, and particularly if it launches a ground offensive. The report cited two diplomatic sources with knowledge of the matter. The report said Amirabdollahian made the comments when he met Saturday with UN Middle East envoy Tor Wennesland in Beirut, a meeting that led to intense criticism from Israel. A short while later, Iran’s mission to the UN warned in a tweet that if Israel’s “war crimes & genocide” are not stopped immediately, this could have “far-reaching consequences” and the situation could “spiral out of control.”

If the Israeli apartheid’s war crimes & genocide are not halted immediately, the situation could spiral out of control & ricochet far-reaching consequences—the responsibility of which lies with the UN, the Security Council & the states steering the Council toward a dead end.

— Permanent Mission of I.R.Iran to UN, NY (@Iran_UN) October 14, 2023

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US Warned Iran in Back-Channel Talks on War: The US has held back-channel talks with Iran in recent days to warn the country against escalating the conflict in Israel, as Israeli forces prepare an expected ground assault in response to last weekend’s surprise attack by Hamas. “We have means of communicating privately with Iran, and we have availed ourselves of those means over the past few days to make clear privately that which we have said publicly,” White House National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said Sunday on CBS News’s Face the Nation. Sullivan said the US couldn’t rule out that Iran might intervene in the conflict, and was monitoring both the possibility of direct involvement by Tehran and proxy activity by Hezbollah across the border with Lebanon.

* * *

Israeli army awaits “political” green light for Gaza invasion:  The Israeli army is awaiting a “political decision” on the timing of a major ground offensive on the Gaza Strip, military spokesmen said Sunday as civilians stepped up desperate efforts to flee northern Gaza. Military spokesmen Lt. Col. Richard Hecht and Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari told separate briefings on Sunday that “a political decision” will set off any action against Hamas. “We will be holding discussions with our political leadership,” Hecht told one briefing.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told troops near the Gaza border on Saturday that “more is coming.” But he did not say when any ground operation would start. Military spokesmen have told reporters that any invasion would aim to eradicate Hamas’ militant network and leadership so that it cannot stage more attacks. The Israeli military has particularly singled out Yahya Sinwar, the chief of Hamas in Gaza who they blame for the Oct. 7 attacks. “That man is in our sights,” Hecht said on Saturday. “He is a dead man walking and we will get to that man.”

* * *

Rockets were fired at Tel Aviv and southern Israel overnight, and the Israel Defense Forces attacked targets in and around the northern part of Gaza. It was not immediately clear how much damage, if any, was caused in the rocket attacks. One Israeli died on Sunday in a Hezbollah attack on Israeli army posts near the border with Lebanon. Subsequent reports indicate that more rockets had been fired into northern Israel from Lebanon.

Initial reports say that rockets were fired from Lebanon. Waiting for further confirmation.

— Joe Truzman (@JoeTruzman) October 15, 2023

Impacts reported in norther Israel. pic.twitter.com/YZgIoofboU

— Moshe Schwartz (@YWNReporter) October 15, 2023

* * *

Moroccans Push to Sever Israel Ties in Mass Protest:  Tens of thousands of protesters took to the streets of Rabat, Morocco’s capital, demanding King Mohammed VI to severe ties with Israel which were restored in 2020. The marchers denounced as “barbaric” ongoing military intervention by Israel in Gaza and demanded the closing of its liaison office in the Moroccan capital. 

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Blinken Meets With Saudi Crown Prince:  Blinken travelled to Riyadh on Sunday for an hour-long talk with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman that the top US diplomat deemed “very productive.”   MBS highlighted Riyadh’s diplomatic outreach “to calm the situation,” the official Saudi Press Agency reported.

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and I met today in Riyadh and discussed the Hamas terrorist attacks on Israel. pic.twitter.com/HjoGMmTzqi

— Secretary Antony Blinken (@SecBlinken) October 15, 2023

* * *

Blinken Will Return to Israel on Monday:  US Secretary of State Antony Blinken will return to Israel on Monday for further consultations with senior officials there, his spokesman said. The top US diplomat was previously in Israel on Thursday as part of a frenetic tour of the region that included stops in Qatar, Jordan, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates as well as Saudi Arabia, as the Biden administration tries to limit the threat of a spreading conflict in the Middle East.

* * *

Blinken Urges China to Use Its Influence:  US Secretary of State Antony Blinken urged Beijing to use its influence to prevent other state or non-state actors from attacking Israel and widening its war with Hamas, the State Department said. Blinken spoke with Foreign Minister Wang Yi before departing from Riyadh, where the top US diplomat was attempting to shore up support for Israel among Arab nations, said State Department spokesman Matthew Miller. He met with Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the State Department said.

* * *

Israel, Hezbollah exchange fire, heightening fears of a second front opening:  Cross-border fire erupted between Israel and Lebanon early Sunday, killing at least one person on the Israeli side of the border. Both the Israeli military and the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah acknowledged the fighting. Hezbollah says it fired guided missiles toward an Israel army post in Shtula from Lebanon, according to the militant group’s Al-Manar TV. The Israeli military said earlier it was targeting southern Lebanon after initial report of a shooting near the Lebanese border.  

The group said in a statement the attack was in retaliation for Israeli shelling that killed Reuters videographer Issam Abdallah on Friday and two Lebanese civilians on Saturday. Israel has responded by targeting the outskirts of the town of Ait el-Shaab, the Israeli military said. The Israel Defense Forces also banned civilians from going within two-and-a-half miles of the Lebanese border. In addition, the Reuters news service reports, Israel disrupted GPS electronic location services in the northern border area and at the Gaza front, according to Reuters. Israel’s Magen David Adom rescue service said a 40-year-old man was killed in the attack from Lebanon, without elaborating or giving his nationality.  As Israel wages its war against Hamas over last week’s unprecedented attack by the Gaza Strip militant group, there’s been concern that Hezbollah could enter the war as well as Israel moves toward launching a ground offensive in Gaza.

* * *

Hezbollah Strikes Israeli Army Posts:  Iran-backed Hezbollah attacked two Israeli army posts near the border with Lebanon in response to what the militant group said was the killing of Lebanese nationals in recent days. One of the Middle East’s most powerful militias, Hezbollah said it fired guided missiles against an Israeli army post in Shtula in Upper Galilee. An hour later, it said its members used “live ammunition” to target an army post in Al-Raheb and destroyed a tank.

* * *

Israeli Shares Down 3% As War Enters Second Week:  Israel’s TA-35 stock index fell sharply on Sunday as Israel continues to strike back against Hamas targets and tensions rise on the northern border with Hezbollah. The index was down 3.3% in early afternoon, having reached the lowest levels since mid-2021. Banking stocks led the decline. The sector was down 12.3% last week “on account of volatility concerns,” the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange said. Other Middle Eastern markets were narrowly mixed.  

* * *

Israel Acknowledges Reports of Gaza Activity: Israel confirmed for the first time that there were intelligence indications of something happening in Gaza two hours before the attacks last week. The head of Shin Bet, Israel’s internal security service, spoke with military personnel about the reports, said Tzachi Hanegbi, head of Israel’s National Security Council. “Both sides assessed that this is something other than it turned out to be,” he said.

* * *

Abbas Stresses Need for Humanitarian Corridor in Biden Call:  In a phone call with US President Joe Biden late Saturday, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas stressed the urgent need for humanitarian corridors to be opened in the Gaza Strip so that basic materials and medical supplies such as water, electricity and fuel, can be delivered to civilians. Abbas also told Biden he rejected the displacement of Palestinians from Gaza and affirmed his rejection of the killing or abusing of civilians on both sides, calling for the release of civilians, priosners and detainees.  

* * *

Pope calls for humanitarian corridors for Gaza residents: Pope Francis called on Sunday for humanitarian corridors to allow the delivery of essentials to the Gaza Strip, which is under heavy Israeli bombardment following a bloody attack on Israel by Gaza’s rulers, Hamas. “Humanitarian law must be respected, especially in Gaza, where it is urgent and necessary to guarantee humanitarian corridors and help the population,” said the Pope after his traditional Angelus prayer in Rome’s Saint Peter’s Square.

* * *

U.S. arranges for ship to evacuate Americans from Israel to Cyprus Monday: The United States has organized a ship to take Americans out of Israel to Cyprus on Monday, the U.S. Embassy said. With Israel moving toward an invasion of the Gaza Strip, the ship will leave from the Israeli port of Haifa for Limassol, taking “U.S. nationals and their immediate family members with a valid travel document,” the U.S. embassy said in a security alert Sunday. Tens of thousands of U.S. passport holders live in Israel and 29 have been confirmed killed in the Hamas attacks on October 7. Another 15 are missing and believed to be among hostages held by Hamas since the attacks. The U.S. embassy didn’t say how many people would fit on the ship but said “boarding will proceed in order of arrival and is on a space limited basis.” Each passenger will have to sign a document promising to repay the cost of the trip and will only be allowed to bring one suitcase. The embassy said some chartered flights would be arranged from Cyprus for onward travel.

* * *

UK Foreign Minister Urges Israel to Show Restraint:  James Cleverly called on Israel to avoid civilian casualties in Gaza and respect international law in any military operations against Hamas, saying his “strong advice” was being offered from a position of friendship.” It’s in Israel’s interest to avoid civilian casualties because Hamas wants to turn the conflict “into a wider Arab-Israeli war, or indeed a war between the Muslim world and and the wider world,” the UK foreign minister said on Sky News. His comments came hours after Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said the UK stood unequivocally with Israel, making no mention of the plight facing Palestinian civilians.

* * *

Gaza Death Toll Reaches 2,300: The number of people killed in Israeli attacks on Gaza has reached more than 2,300, local authorities said, with thousands more wounded in the past eight days. This now outnumbers the death toll of the 51-day Israel-Hamas war of 2014, according to Ashraf Al-Qedra, a spokesperson for the Gaza health ministry. The 2014 war killed more than 2,200 Palestinians, according to UN figures. At the time it was the deadliest and most destructive violence since Hamas took over the Gaza Strip.

* * *

Situation in Gaza hospitals getting ever more desperate: Medics in Gaza warned Sunday that thousands could die as hospitals packed with wounded people run desperately low on fuel and basic supplies. Palestinians in the besieged coastal enclave struggled to find food, water and safety ahead of an expected Israeli ground offensive in the war sparked by Hamas’ deadly attack. A week of blistering airstrikes have demolished entire Gaza neighborhoods but failed to stem militant rocket fire into Israel. Hospitals are expected to run out of generator fuel within two days, according to the U.N., which said that would endanger the lives of thousands of patients. Gaza’s sole power plant shut down for lack of fuel after Israel completely sealed off the 25-mile-long territory following the Hamas attack.

* * *

Israel Says it Killed Hamas Military Leader:  The Israeli military said on Sunday its fighter jets killed the Hamas military leader responsible for the attack on one of Israel’s communities last Saturday, Kibbutz Nirim. In a statement, the military said this occurred Saturday night during operations that also took out Hamas rocket launchers. It said the man was commander of the Nukhba forces in Khan Yunis in the southern Gaza Strip. Nukhba are the elite Hamas military unit that Israel says trained and led the October 7 attack. Hamas has been designated as a terrorist group by the US and the European Union.

Developing

Authored by Marina Zhang via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

A new review suggests that COVID vaccines “may trigger” rheumatic immune-mediated inflammatory diseases, including arthritis, vasculitis, lupus, and adult-onset Still’s disease.

On average, patients developed rheumatic diseases 11 days after vaccine administration, according to the study. Seventy-five (over 27 percent) of these patients experienced total disease remission, and about 50 percent improved following treatment. Eight were admitted to intensive care, and two died from their symptoms.

“The short time span between COVID-19 vaccine administration and the onset of R-IMIDs suggests the potential possibility of a cause-and-effect relationship,” the authors wrote.

Rheumatic immune-mediated inflammatory diseases (R-IMIDs) involve inflammation that manifests in the joints, tendons, muscles, and bones due to an unknown cause.

The study, led by researchers from the National Health Service in the United Kingdom, examined 271 participants from 190 case studies published worldwide.

Over 80 percent of the patients developed symptoms after their first or second dose of the COVID-19 vaccine, and most were treated and improved with corticosteroids.

There are more than 25,000 centi-millionaires around the world today, forming an elite club composed primarily of founders and heirs of family fortunes.

According to Henley & Partners, most of these individuals – who have more than $100 million in investable assets by definition – split their time between several properties each year.

To explore the destinations that are the most sought-after by the ultra-wealthy, Visual Capitalist’s Selin Oğuz and Christina Kostandi visualized the cities that saw the biggest influx of seasonal centi-millionaire residents in 2022, using data from Henley & Partners.

Centi-Millionaire Vacation Hotspots

The top three seasonal vacation hotspots of the ultra-rich are found in the United States: Miami, the Hamptons, and Florida’s West Palm Beach.

This may not come as a shock given the concentration of centi-millionaires in the United States, with New York, the San Francisco Bay Area, and Los Angeles being home to the highest number of centi-millionaire residents in the world.

Regardless of where they live year-round, the table below reveals where these elites flock for seasonal getaways in their secondary homes.

The data above only considers centi-millionaires vacationing in their secondary residences, therefore excluding hotel stays, holiday rentals, and yachts. Peak holiday months vary for each location.

Beyond the 10 U.S. cities that constitute the top 17 centi-millionaire seasonal hotspots, we come across several French cities on the list, including Paris, Nice, Cannes, and Antibes, as well as Portugal’s Golden Triangle and Lisbon.

Global Centi-Millionaire Trends

According to Henley & Partners’ 2023 Centi-Millionaire Report, the global centi-millionaire population is expected to grow by 38% in the next decade, reaching nearly 40,000 by 2033.

Much of this growth is expected to be seen in countries such as China, India, and Saudi Arabia. China’s Hangzhou and Shenzhen, specifically, are expected to see the highest percentage growth in centi-millionaire populations through 2033, growing by 95% and 88%, respectively.

Despite the rapid growth of the wealthy in the global East, however, it’s notable that many centi-millionaires are still graduating from American universities.

More than half of the top 20 universities with the most centi-millionaire alumni are in the United States, with Harvard, Stanford, and the University of Pennsylvania making up the top three spots.

Authored by Scott Horton via The Libertarian Institute,

…so wise up!

With terrorism, as with all asymmetric political action, “the action is in the reaction of the opposition,” as Saul Alinsky, the leftist activist, put it in his book Rules for Radicals.

This isn’t conspiracy stuff, nor impossible “4th dimensional chess”—it’s just plain, old 2-dimentional chess. That’s all.

Hamas, al Qaeda, and similar groups slaughter civilians—beheaded babies or not, they certainly murdered hundreds and hundreds of innocent, civilian Israeli non-combatants in this one (including an extended family member of mine) just as they slaughtered thousands on September 11—for a reason, not simply because they are angry or devils. It’s a tactic. They are trying to provoke a reaction.

They are trying to make you angry, to make you hate, even drive you crazy. Yes—yes—for the purpose of making the more powerful force (i.e. the United States, Israel) do even worse to their own people, such as getting the U.S. to invade Afghanistan and getting Israel to bomb the Gaza strip. Not that al Qaeda was from Afghanistan, but that’s where they were and that’s who they knew were gonna get it. (Also, by the way, U.S. support for Israel’s crimes in Palestine and Lebanon was a huge part of the motive for al Qaeda’s war against the United States in the first place, including for some of the most important pilot hijackers and organizers of the plot.)

This is then meant to provoke still further counter-reactions. It “heightens the contradictions” as the commies used to say. It forces leaders of Muslim states and armed groups everywhere to take a stand. It destroys stability and negotiations and progress, radicalizes new groups and forces everyone back into the fight on one side or the other. It makes every sock-puppet princeling of the Gulf take a stand in support like the Ayatollah or sell out in silence in the most embarrassing way, like Crown Prince bin Salman, etc.

It’s the same reason Bosnian Muslim forces butchered Serbs and Chechen Muslim forces butchered Russians and ISIS slaughtered Shi’ites: to provoke a worse crisis for everyone in the hopes that the overall situation changes to their advantage.

I would note that terrorism is usually as stupid as it is evil; see Bosnia, where they got less and less; Chechnya, Syria and Iraq Wars II and III where they lost outright. Osama’s nemesis, the Saudi monarchy, still stands, and with as degenerate a self-worshiper in the Crown Prince position as he could have ever feared. Hamas may very well not survive this.

But for Israel to completely destroy them would require a level of violence that the civilian population of the Gaza strip, one half of them under 18 years old—all of them trapped with no where to go—simply cannot withstand. Hundreds have already been killed.

Ramzy Baroud argues that a land invasion of the strip will be a catastrophe for Israel too.

The longer this goes on, the greater the danger to the Israeli hostages as well.

By widening the war into a full-scale invasion of Gaza, the Israelis risk spreading the war to a full-scale uprising on the West Bank, a fight with Hezbollah in Lebanon or even northern Israel, which could then lead to things going sideways in Iraq—where George W. Bush installed a very Iran- and Hezbollah-friendly Shi’ite theocracy in power—and who-knows what.

Powerful Muslim states who are friendly to Israel, such as Turkey and Egypt, must be allowed to step in and play a negotiating role here.

Stop reacting. And stop posturing like a bunch of little girls on TikTok. Pull the brakes before it’s too late.

I know calling your congressmen feels like pissing in the wind. But do what you can to make your voice heard and call for cease-fire and talks as soon as possible.

Ultimately the Palestinians must have independence or citizenship. Otherwise, as Ariel Sharon’s man, former Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said, they’re left with an untenable apartheid state.

And the United States should stop sharing in the responsibility for this shame immediately by ending all aid and military support for the occupation – and for that matter in all cases, everywhere.

Also, USS Gerald Ford: watch your six.