Authored by John Tamny via RealClear Wire,

In 1988, Pulitzer Prize-winning New York Times reporter Hedrick Smith authored “The Power Game: How Washington Works.” It was a fascinating, if unflattering, portrait of the nation’s capital that not only has proven prescient, but remains relevant today.  

Having arrived in Washington in 1962, Smith charted what he called “stunning transformations” in the previous two and a half decades. These ranged from “the new congressional assertiveness” engendered by Richard Nixon’s resignation and the revolt by young members against the seniority system, to how the utter supremacy of television had warped the system and produced “a new generation of video politicians whose medium was the tube rather than the political clubhouse.”  

These words were written, mind you, when Matt Gaetz was seven years old – and two years before Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez was born. But the most significant change Smith documented was the stunning proliferation of lobbyists, hangers-on, and congressional aides.  

Many of these aides were not just career politicians, but men and women who’d never had any other career other than politics. One of the subjects highlighted in Smith’s book had worked on Capitol Hill as a staffer, only to run for Congress. He won. His quip to Smith upon reaching Congress as a back-bencher (lightly paraphrased) was that “never has one individual so willingly given up so much power.”    

Sen. Robert Menendez is a poster boy for this new ethos. He ran for student body president in high school and won, and never really stopped angling for office. While still in college, he served as an aide to the mayor of Union City, N.J. At 20, he was elected to the local school board. A few years later, he ran against the mayor he worked for. Menendez lost that first campaign, but won the rematch in 1986. The following year, he ran and won a seat in the state legislature, and in a sign of the avaricious nature that would later get him indicted, he kept the mayor’s office (and salary) serving in both posts at once.  

From there, it was the state Senate in Trenton, a House seat in Washington, and in 2006, he was appointed to the U.S. Senate seat he still holds, at least for now. And while the greed alleged in a criminal indictment filed last month by federal prosecutors has alienated even his fellow Democrats who have called for his resignation, there’s a case to be made that Bob Menendez isn’t the problem as much as he’s a symptom of the problem of a system dominated and warped by career politicians.   

Consider a description from the New York Times about how Menendez has operated:   

“He accepted rides on private plans, luxurious vacations, and other perks from wealthy friends while freely using his office to advance their interests.”    

Contrast that description with the Hedrick Smith anecdote about a newly elected pol. While until recently Menendez was the picture of power, including routine visits to the smoking porch at Morton’s (his annual bill at the steak chain alone was reported to be $16,000) where he enjoyed the best of the best cigars, the newbie in Congress was a bit of a nobody. Well, of course.                

This may be Menendez’s nature, as reporters haven’t yet gotten around to digging into what he was up to for all those years in Union City and Trenton. But one thing is clear. He certainly learned the ways of Washington: getting to know the right people (elected and unelected) while perfecting the skill of moving money to the programs and projects desired by those with money, or who wanted to attain it. Menendez, the New York Times also noted, helped bring home the bacon for his constituents as well, from a Hudson County light-rail network to billions of dollars in federal aid to rebuild after Hurricane Sandy ravaged the state in 2012. Recently, he’s credited with securing funding for a new rail tunnel beneath the Hudson River, currently the nation’s largest public works project.    

Little of the federal funding Menendez directed to New Jersey could have been secured by a rookie senator. But Menendez learned, and learned well, the ways of Washington over time. As former New Jersey Gov. James McGreevey put it to the Times, “Bob labored intensely to master detail.” This political mastery is what made him such a magnet for money, as those who can move billions of dollars around tend to be.    

“No man’s life, liberty, or property are safe while the Legislature is in session,” is an old saw of American politics. It’s even truer for Congress. And one moral of the Menendez story, whether he beats the rap or is convicted, is that term limits would limit the time spent in Washington, time in elected office that is so instrumental in one’s ability to grow government. 

It’s something to think about. The easy, politically expedient thing to do is make political hay of Menendez’s obnoxious ethical lapses. But if the desire is to at least try to fix the system, one solution might be limiting time in office so that elected officials don’t have the time to amass the power and learn the skills that it takes to act unethically.    

Authored by Betsy McCaughey via The Epoch Times,

America’s renters – more than one-third of the nation’s households – are in for trouble.

Left-wing politicians are demanding rent regulation from coast to coast. Wherever it is adopted, the result will be a disastrous reduction in the rental housing supply, leaving renters desperate for places to live.

New York is the poster child for the failures of rent regulation. The U.S. Supreme Court is currently mulling a challenge to the constitutionality of the city’s rent regime.

Whatever the justices decide, the public needs to consider less destructive, more targeted ways to help low-income people pay for housing. The court of public opinion needs to consider these facts.

Fact No. 1: Rent regulation isn’t targeted to the poor.

In New York, there’s no means test. What you need is luck or connections. The mean income of a rent-stabilized apartment dweller is $47,000, but census data show that tens of thousands of them earn more than $150,000 per year. Some occupants use what they’re saving on rent to pay for a weekend place in the Hamptons or New England.

The pols don’t object—a sure sign they’re calling for rent regulation to help themselves politically, not the poor.

In New York, 44 percent of rental apartments are regulated by the Rent Guidelines Board (RGB), established in 1969, which sets the maximum amount by which landlords are allowed to raise the rent. Those limits apply to all buildings of six or more units built before 1974.

In 2022, the RGB set the maximum rent hike at 3.25 percent on one-year leases and this year at 3 percent. Never mind that last year, fuel costs to heat the buildings soared by 19 percent and overall inflation hit 8.3 percent.

The decisions are political, not economic. Many Democratic politicians vilify building owners as “greedy landlords” and depict themselves as the champions of the downtrodden. It’s a scam.

Fact No. 2: Winners and losers.

The winners are the lucky few with rent-regulated apartments and the pols who count on an army of tenant activists to turn out at the polls. The losers are the 56 percent of renters who don’t score a regulated apartment and have to scour neighborhoods for an unregulated place that they can afford. They’re paying more.

Why? Because regulation causes some landlords to walk away, reducing the overall supply of apartments. The laws of supply and demand mean rents go up. New Yorkers in unregulated apartments are paying the highest rents in the United States for a one-bedroom apartment. They’re the real victims, and they should be furious.

Yet the left-wing press pretends that rent control offers only benefits. The New Republic warns that the Supreme Court challenge threatens “laws that have benefitted the city’s tenants for generations.” Sorry, untrue—only some tenants, and not always the neediest.

It’s economic madness. The saner way to help those who need assistance paying rent is with a voucher. We offer the needy SNAP debit cards to help them pay for groceries. No one slaps price controls on grocery stores or designates certain stores as “regulated,” forcing them to sell at below cost.

Yet New York forces certain landlords to pay what should be a public cost shared by all, an argument made to the court.

Fact No. 3: The Marxist fantasy that rent regulation will help the poor is spreading across the United States and Europe as well.

Maine and Minnesota have enacted laws allowing municipalities to impose rent regulations. In November 2024, California voters will be asked to approve a proposition allowing local governments to add additional restrictions to the state’s existing rent caps.

The laws of supply and demand are international. Berlin froze rents in 2019, and the rental supply plummeted, according to the Ifo Institute, a think tank.

Yet London Mayor Sadiq Khan is calling for freezing rents for two years. London provides housing vouchers to the poor—a smarter approach—but when the city froze the voucher amounts during the COVID-19 pandemic, fewer apartments were available in the price range. The answer is to raise the voucher amount. Freezing rents will only make the shortage worse.

Ignore the demagogues. The evidence is in: Rent regulation is a political scam. There are better ways to help Americans afford a place to live.

The case in favor of homeschooling is growing by the day.  Multiple public school districts in the state of Wisconsin officially added gender fluid ideology as a part if their controversial “Human Growth and Development” curriculum that earned heat from critics in 2022.  While Wisconsin allows districts to tailor their own sex education programs and not all districts are the same, basic lessons in many districts include teaching “gender role stereotypes” to second graders, third graders are urged to investigate their gender identity and sixth graders are instructed to refer to girls as “a person with a vulva.”

For 4th and 5th graders in the Superior School District of Wisconsin, the 2023-2024 required resource list includes a cartoon produced by the Canadian Public Broadcasting Service (CBC) called ‘Gender Explained.’  This is what they are now teaching to 9-year-olds in WI:

Below is the the portion of the Superior District required curriculum resources list that includes the CBC cartoon:

Gender ideology was initially taught covertly to children by activist teachers across the US, with teacher unions and organizations quietly encouraging the practice while also pushing for secrecy from parents.  Progressives denied the practice for years, claiming that accusations were “paranoia and conspiracy theory” despite ample evidence to the contrary, including teacher’s own confessions on social media. 

After exposure became widespread and parents realized that their children were being indoctrinated into the far-left fold instead of being taught reading, writing and arithmetic, the uproar did not lead to a change in momentum or an apology from schools.  Rather, Democrat states and school districts doubled down, admitted that they were teaching gender fluidity to kids and started officially adding the lessons to the curriculum.  This has been the case in Wisconsin.

Gender identity started as a fringe movement attached to LGBT organizations, but it has quickly mutated into a sweeping sociopolitical movement with the help of the entertainment industry, social media, corporate propaganda and most of all, public school teachers.  Studies show a huge spike in trans identifying children from 2017-2021, right as gender curriculum was being secretly introduced in classrooms. 

Trends among young people often die as quickly as they are adopted; the problem is that schools and government organizations are institutionalizing the trans fantasy as if it is proven science.

Keep in mind, there is no concrete scientific evidence supporting the notion that “gender” exists separate from biological sex, or that gender identity is fluid outside of an extremely rare mental illness known as gender dysphoria.  In fact, trans activists have organized in an attempt to have studies disproving gender theory removed from major scientific journals. 

For example, in March, activists were able to force a retraction on technical grounds of a paper on gender dysphoria by one of the world’s largest academic publishers, Springer Nature, which publishes Nature magazine and Scientific American.  The paper found a large number of parents of gender dysphoric children said that their children suffered from long standing preexisting mental health issues.  The study also reported a large number of parents surveyed thought their children’s gender dysphoria resulted from social contagion.  In other words, kids are jumping on the bandwagon because it is seen as trendy, or because they are being brainwashed.      

Authored by Tuomas Malinen via Substack,

On Tuesday, I published a post on X (Twitter), which summarized an economic worst-case scenario for the Israeli-Palestine war. It included 10 points:

1. The conflict escalates into a regional war with the U.S. becoming directly involved.

2. OPEC responds with an oil embargo.

3. Iran closes the strait of Hormuz.

4. The price of oil reaches $300/barrel.

5. Europe succumbs into a full-blown energy crisis due to LNG shortage.

6. Massive spike in energy prices reinvigorates inflation with central banks responding accordingly.

7. Financial markets and the global banking sector collapse.

8. Debt crisis engulfs the U.S. forcing the Federal Reserve to enact yet another financial market bailout.

9. Petrodollar trade collapses.

10. Hyperinflation emerges.

In this entry, I go through each step.

History rhymes?

In October 1973, Israel fought the Yom Kippur War against a coalition of Arab States led by Egypt and Syria. As a result of this, the Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries proclaimed an oil embargo against western countries supporting Israel. In six months, the price of oil rose by nearly 300%, globally, and even more in the U.S., which at that time had become dependent on the Middle-Eastern oil.

In the current time, in the worst-case, Israel launches a major counter-offensive against Palestine leading to a declaration of war, to Israel, from Iran and Syria (others may join too). In this situation, the U.S. would be almost surely forced to respond and take part in the defense of Israel. The Ford carrier strike group (which includes world’s largest warship, USS Gerald R. Ford) has been dispatched to eastern Mediterranean and the Biden administration has been reported of considering sending another carrier strike group to eastern Mediterranean. There are also rumors of U.S. military cargo planes making routine trips to Israel.

Any direct U.S. involvement in the war would almost surely force a response from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, or OPEC, or at least from some of its members. This would, most likely, take the form of an oil embargo to the U.S. and possibly Europe.

The strait of Hormuz is a pivotal, narrow strait for the global oil markets. One-sixth of all oil and one-third of all liquified natural gas, or LNG, consumed in the world passes through it. The strait includes eight islands of which seven are controlled by Iran, but it has a military presence in all eight. Thus, Iran has the military capacity to close the strait.

The means of closing the strait are plenty. Essentially, they range from a threat-based closing, where Iran threatens to sink any tanker passing through it, to actual sinking of a super-tanker into the strait closing it for an unknown period of time and also polluting the Persian Gulf. However, as close to 85% of Iranian imports pass through the strait, the latter option can be considered unlikely.

If the closing, or even a disruption of traffic through the strait of Hormuz would occur, with the Russian oil and gas embargo continuing, we would most likely, see the global prices of oil and LNG skyrocket to never-before-seen heights. This would reinvigorate rapid inflation, but there would also be more serious repercussions.

The Achilles heel of Europe

After closing most of the pipelines delivering Russian gas to Europe, the continent has relied on the global LNG market to fill the gap. Most importantly, Europe has relied both U.S. and Middle-Eastern sources for gas deliveries.

For example, Germany just signed a contract with Oman LNG for gas deliveries, which pass through the strait of Hormuz. Germany has also signed an agreement with U.S. based Venture Global on LNG deliveries making it the largest provider of LNG to Germany. However, VG has not even yet started building the facility where gas to Germany is delivered from.

The U.S. has accounted for little over half of Europe’s LNG demand during the past year, with Russia and the Middle-East providing around 30%. If both of these latter sources were cut, or their supply seriously reduced, it’s unlikely that the U.S. or other sources could fill up the gap, because the global LNG market is undersupplied. Moreover, combining Middle-Eastern (and possibly Russian) gas cutoff with a normal or a cold winter could create an utterly devastating conditions for the already “finely balanced” European gas market.

This means that the Israel-Palestine conflict has the capacity to derail all plans for energy security in Europe, as Russian gas has been cut (and blown) of. It’s hard to overstate the seriousness of this threat with German and European economies already sinking into a recession. Return of the energy crisis (with vengeance!) would most likely strike a mortal blow to the European economy and topple her banking sector with known global consequences.

From financial chaos to hyperinflation

Naturally, reinvigorated inflation pressures would force central banks to enact another round of interest rate rises. This would wreak havoc among consumers and corporations, but also in the capital markets. Yields of sovereign debt would likely explode. This would be followed by an utter collapse of asset and credit markets, á la spring of 2020.

At this point, we would most likely see the central banks take their “monetary perversions” to another level. This means that while they would be raising interest rates to quell inflation, they would also enact asset purchase programs to support the sovereign debt, credit and asset markets. The bailout of the financial markets would need to reach several trillions of USD, like during the spring of 2020. This would push a vast amounts of money and especially U.S. dollars into the global economy. This would naturally increase inflation pressures massively, but there’s a risk something even worse.

As a ‘nuclear option’, OPEC could stop using USD in the oil trade altogether. This would mean that the demand for dollars would suddenly collapse, and the “excess dollars”, formerly used to purchase oil, would eventually head home. This would create an unprecedented spike in the money supply of the U.S. creating perfect conditions for hyperinflation with collapsing production due to a deep recession fueled by rapid inflation, high interest rates and a banking crisis. Havoc in the U.S. economy, and thus the world, would be nothing short of apocalyptic.

Conclusions

As I am finalizing this (October 11), first reports of missile strikes to Israel from Hezbollah have surfaced in X (Twitter). At this point, it’s impossible to corroborate or debunk these claims. If these have occurred, we have just taken steps to reach the first point of the worst-case scenario.

In any case, the scenario outlined above underlines the seriousness of the situation we currently find ourselves in. The Israeli-Palestinian conflict has the capacity to 1) deliver an energy checkmate for Europe and 2) initiate a devastating collapse of the U.S. economy.

However, it should be noted that, while it’s currently unlikely that we see all 10 points come to pass, if we reach even the first points, they would deliver a crushing blow to the fragile global economy. That’s why the situation needs to be followed very closely.

Regardless, it may not be a bad idea to buy gold, gasoline, gas and wood (if you have a stove).

We will continue to provide guidance for preparation in GnS Economics Newsletter.

In an interview last night with Fox’s Bret Baier, former CIA Director Leon Panetta humiliated himself as he defended the letter that he and 50 other so-called ‘intelligence officials’ signed suggesting that the Hunter Biden laptop was Russian disinformation.

Even more unsettling were his comments that he believes it could still be Russian disinformation.

“That letter was used in the debate, I haven’t asked you this but do you have regrets about that now looking back, knowing what you know now?” Baier asked.

Panetta explained that he was “extremely concerned about Russian interference” in the run up to the 2020 Presidential Election between then-former-Vice President Joe Biden and then-President Donald Trump.

He claimed that intelligence agencies discovered that “Russia had continued to push disinformation across the board.”

He said that he wanted to “alert the public” about the “disinformation efforts” to influence the election.

“And frankly, I haven’t seen any evidence from any intelligence agency that that was not the case,” Panetta said.

“You don’t think that it was real?” Baier asked.

“I think that disinformation is involved here. I think Russian disinformation is part of what we’re seeing everywhere,” Panetta responded.

“I don’t trust the Russians, and that’s exactly why I was concerned that the public not trust the Russians either.”

And finally, Baier asked if Panetta had any regrets over how he handled the story.

“No, I don’t have any regrets about not trusting the Russians,” Panetta said.

As Jonathan Turley pointed out,Panetta simply refused to acknowledge:

(1) American intelligence quickly debunked the claim and said that there was no evidence of Russian disinformation behind the laptop,

(2) the emails contained in the laptop were quickly authenticated by the other parties,

(3) the FBI authenticated the laptop,

(4) Hunter Biden has since sued over the use of his laptop, and

(5) the media has independently authenticated the laptop.

This was the man in charge of our CIA.

As a reminder, it has also been shown that the Biden campaign and associates coordinated the letter.

Watch the lying liar lie below…

Here’s the clip of Leon Panetta telling Bret Baier he has no regrets about the MIS-information that the Hunter Biden laptop was a Russian disinformation operation. He wouldn’t get this question on the lefty networks. pic.twitter.com/rHRDRsaS4H

— Tim Graham (@TimJGraham) October 13, 2023

We give the last word back to Turley who summarized the former spook’s self-immolation perfectly: “Panetta has become the personification of the economic theory of path dependence. No matter how much countervailing evidence is presented to Panetta, he still refuses to accept the authenticity of the laptop.”

However, in order to admit to these facts, Panetta would have had to admit that he was a willing or unwitting dupe of the campaign. It is easier to simply continue to claim that this could all be the invention of the Russians.

Yet, as Turley exclaims, Panetta is still sought for his advice on other intelligence matters as he continues to repeat disproven claims because the truth is simply too costly on a personal level to acknowledge.

What do we call false claims that are repeated despite being repeatedly debunked and disproven? Oh, yea, disinformation.

Authored by Ryan Morgan via The Epoch Times (Emphasis ours),

In a settlement agreement submitted on Oct. 3, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, Army Secretary Christine Wormuth, Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall, and Navy Secretary Carlos Del Toro agreed to settle the pair of lawsuits—known as U.S. Navy SEALs 1-26 v. Biden and Colonel Financial Management Officer, et al. v. Austin—which challenged the legal basis of the military-wide vaccine mandate.

The two cases were brought by servicemembers from all U.S. military branches, including numerous officers and several members of the elite U.S. Navy SEALs. The Navy SEAL plaintiffs initially filed their lawsuit nearly two years ago in October 2021 after President Joe Biden ordered that all U.S. troops and other executive branch employees be vaccinated against COVID-19.

Military servicemembers have raised numerous objections to the military COVID-19 vaccine mandate, including claims that the various military branches routinely rejected requests for religious accommodations to the mandates. Plaintiffs have also raised health concerns over the relatively condensed timeline under which the various COVID-19 vaccines were developed and then granted approval by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA).

While the various COVID-19 vaccines were originally made available to the general public under emergency use authorizations, the FDA eventually granted full approval to the Pfizer–BioNTech vaccine version, later marketed as Comirnaty. President Biden introduced the vaccine mandate shortly after the FDA granted full approval for Comirnaty, but the lawsuits argued that the FDA-approved vaccine often wasn’t actually available to servicemembers, meaning that the military vaccine mandate effectively required service members to take versions of the COVID-19 vaccines that didn’t have full FDA approval.

Last year, Republican lawmakers introduced a provision in the 2022 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) that repealed the military’s vaccine mandate. President Biden ultimately signed the 2022 NDAA into law, despite objecting to the provision reversing his military vaccine mandate.

Liberty Counsel, a religious liberty nonprofit that represented military plaintiffs in the two cases, celebrated the Oct. 3 settlement agreement.

“The military COVID shot mandate is dead,” Liberty Counsel founder and Chairman Mat Staver said in a statement. “Our heroic service members can no longer be forced to take this experimental jab that conflicts with their religious convictions.”

The $1.8 million settlement will be split between the two cases, with $900,000 being paid out for SEAL 1-26 v. Biden and the same amount being paid to the plaintiffs in Colonel Financial Management Officer, et al. v. Austin.

“Through our daily work with service members in every branch, we have had the privilege of knowing some of the finest people who love God and love America,” Mr. Staver said. “These heroes should not have been mistreated by our own government. At the same time, we have come to realize that many of the high-ranking members of leadership, the Pentagon, and the Biden administration need to be replaced. Collectively, they dishonored the brave men and women who defend our freedom. We stand ready to defend our defenders of freedom if any religious discrimination occurs in the future.”

Approximately 8,400 U.S. military servicemembers were involuntarily separated from the military as a result of the COVID-19 vaccine mandate.

The majority of servicemembers received a general discharge, as opposed to a more favorable honorable discharge. Servicemembers separated under a general discharge can be barred from rejoining the military and don’t have full access to educational benefits under the GI Bill.

It is perhaps one of the strangest political alliances in existence today – The political left’s infatuation with Muslim extremism and supporting Islamic causes, despite the fact that the majority of leftists would likely be imprisoned or worse in Islamic countries for their beliefs. 

Regardless of a person’s position on the Israeli/Palestinian conflict, it cannot be denied that Muslim culture is inherently hostile to progressive concepts like women’s rights, gay rights, diversity and inclusion, sexual revolution, etc.  Opposition to trans ideology in particular is one of the few areas, in fact, where orthodox Muslims and conservatives in the US tend to find common ground.  In other words, Muslims have little or nothing in common with the political left in the west.  

Where the movements seem to intersect is up for debate, but it is clear that leftist activists are quick to jump on any opportunity to provoke violent deconstruction.  The past couple days have given rise to a series of leftist rallies, mostly in blue enclaves and university environments, all across the US.  People bearing rainbow flags and Palestinian flags are calling for “one solution” – A violent intifada.

This is currently happening at the University of Washington.

“There is only one solution. Intifada Revolution.”

It’s insane how many college students are waving Palestinian flags while calling for genocide against Jews.
pic.twitter.com/BkEUbeo6X1

— Greg Price (@greg_price11) October 12, 2023

The rallies all appear to be tied to far-left groups from Antifa to LGBT groups.

Transgender activists are coming out in support of Palestine. pic.twitter.com/sugpim0bFi

— Ian Miles Cheong (@stillgray) October 13, 2023

From Portland, Orgeon…

Portland Antifa members are among those who joined the Palestine direct action in downtown coinciding with the Hamas call to action. The rally was organized by SUPER, a @Portland_State student group that posted in support of the antisemitic terror group. pic.twitter.com/VEY11w9kxp

— Andy Ngô 🏳️‍🌈 (@MrAndyNgo) October 14, 2023

…to New York.

“There is only one solution, INTIFADA Revolution!” A call for more killing of Jews in Times Square by the crowd led by Students for Justice in Palestine activist Naya Idriss. This misnomer of “Justice” is now what passes for morality, not just by Hamas, but in NYC.… pic.twitter.com/2R6d471RZ8

— Canary Mission (@canarymission) October 10, 2023

Even BLM wants in on the Intifada…

How leftist activists plan to reconcile their support of Islamic extremism with their own ideological taboos remains to be seen.  Furthermore, with the majority of Democrat politicians including Biden publicly in favor of Israel, one wonders if there will be a considerable split in the Democrat party if the conflict continues to escalate beyond the borders of Gaza.

Authored by Tom Ozimek via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The all-mighty American consumer, whose spending drives the economy, is reaching a breaking point and is on the verge of folding, according to former Walmart CEO Bill Simon.

Mr. Simon told CNBC in a recent interview that a series of factors—political polarization, inflation, and high interest rates—were all working together to undermine consumers and their propensity to spend.

“That sort of pileup wears on the consumer and makes them wary,” Mr. Simon told the outlet. “For the first time in a long time, there’s a reason for the consumer to pause.”

Consumer spending is a major driver of the U.S. economy, accounting for roughly two-thirds of gross domestic product (GDP).

Mr. Simon, who now serves on the Board of Directors for Darden Restaurants and Hanesbrands Inc., said that, after a long period of cheap money cut short by the Federal Reserve’s rapid rate hikes in response to soaring inflation, consumers are now beginning to buckle.

“Consumers had an incredible 10-, 12-year run,” he told CNBC’s “Fast Money” program. “Markets were buoyant. Interest rates were low. Money was available.”

But now, the music has stopped, and the party is grinding to a halt.

Faced with soaring inflation that remained persistently high despite predictions that the price spike would be short-lived, Fed officials have pushed the benchmark federal funds rate quickly from near zero in March 2022 to its current range of 5.25–5.5 percent.

“For consumers trying to manage their personal finances amid inflation, the situation with prices is a bit like battling illness. Being past the worst of it isn’t the same as feeling better or robust,” he said.

Many economists see a relatively high probability of a recession in the coming year, with signals like waning consumer confidence an often-cited canary in the coal mine.

“Write-in responses showed that consumers continued to be preoccupied with rising prices in general, and for groceries and gasoline in particular. Consumers also expressed concerns about the political situation and higher interest rates,” Dana Peterson, chief economist at the Conference Board, said in a statement.

All that consumer worry is likely to translate into reduced spending if it hasn’t already. The latest consumer spending data is for August, and it shows personal consumption expenditures (PCE) growing 0.4 percent that month, less than half of July’s pace of 0.9 percent.

A recent survey carried out in September by CNBC-Morning Consult found that 92 percent of U.S. adults have cut back on spending over the past six months.

Looking forward, over three-quarters of those polled said they plan to cut back on spending for non-essential items.

Further, a recent survey of consumer expectations from the New York Federal Reserve shows that more U.S. households report being financially worse off now than they were a year ago.

Forty-one percent of households say they’re financially worse off than a year ago, up from 40 percent in August.

Unsurprisingly, given the Fed’s series of aggressive rate hikes and speculation that more could be in store, households’ perceptions of and expectations for credit conditions deteriorated.

The survey also gauged consumer spending intentions one year ahead. While these remained unchanged in September at 5.3 percent, they generally fell steadily from a peak of 9.0 percent in May 2022.

A number of large retailers, such as Target, have reported a drop in discretionary spending.

“There is some real concern about weakness in the consumer,” Sarah Hunt, a partner at Alpine Saxon Woods, told Bloomberg TV in an interview at the end of September.

“There’s a real spending issue coming up and I think that’s going to impact earnings.”

France has deployed 7,000 soldiers to beef up security after a schoolteacher was stabbed to death and three others wounded, according to France’s interior minister, who said that the suspected Islamist attack was linked to the Israel-Hamas conflict.

Breaking News France: 7000 Soldiers are being deployed across France as #HamasTerrorist supporters continue to cause chaos and the French authorities scramble to prevent further killings. #France Mass uncontrolled #Illegals being allowed into the country are causing… pic.twitter.com/1PdVT61Ovw

— Jim Ferguson (@JimFergusonUK) October 14, 2023

A 20-year-old Russian-born Chechen, Mohamed M, was arrested shortly after the Friday attack at a secondary school in the northeastern city of Arras, roughly 115 miles north of Paris. According to interior minister Gerald Darmanin, who added that authorities have detained 12 people near schools or places of worship since the Hamas attack on Israel, Sky reports.

⚡Graphic Video

THE SCENE OF THE MURDER OF A TEACHER IN FRANCE

The suspect is a Chechen. Today he killed a teacher in the courtyard of a school in France. He was arrested and taken into custody.#France pic.twitter.com/BjhMFJfX8Q

— ⚡NOW⚡ (@warinsightshq) October 13, 2023

The teacher’s murder comes nearly three years to the day after a Chechen Muslim beheaded a French teacher on Oct. 16, 2020, near his school in a Paris suburb.

“Three years after the assassination of Samuel Paty, terrorism has struck a school again and in a context that we all know,” said French President Emmanuel Macron.

Of note, France has banned all pro-Palestinian protests. Despite this, hundreds of demonstrators gathered in central Paris on Thursday.

“Pro-Palestinian demonstrations must be prohibited because they are likely to generate disturbances to the public order,” said Darmanin, who called on police to protect all locations visited by French Jews, such as synagogues and schools, and that any foreigner committing acts of anti-Semitism on French soil will be “immediately expelled.”

Meanwhile, the Lourve and the Palace of Versailles were both evacuated over bomb threats.

Le Louvre évacué en catastrophe après une alerte à la bombe.

L’invasion et l’islamisation du pays, ardemment voulues par les dirigeants de droite et de gauche depuis 40 se paient très cher.

Et ce sont les Français qui passent à la caisse.#attentat #islamisme #terrorisme… pic.twitter.com/h5ygei1Jxv

— Jean MESSIHA (@JeanMessiha) October 14, 2023

Alarms rang out through the Louvre, a vast space also in a former royal palace Paris overlooking the Seine River, when the evacuation was announced, and in the underground shopping center beneath its signature pyramid.

Police cordoned off the monument from all sides, and the underground access, as tourists and other visitors streamed out. Videos posted online showed people leaving, some hurriedly and some stopping to take photos, others apparently confused about what was happening. -AP

The Palace of Versailles, Louvre Museum, as well as several other Tourist Locations in Paris, France are currently being Evacuated following a reported Bomb Threat. pic.twitter.com/qL9nP5ucSY

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) October 14, 2023

BREAKING: Bomb alert at Palace of Versailles in France, people evacuating pic.twitter.com/ujLoclDM5t

— Insider Paper (@TheInsiderPaper) October 14, 2023

The Lourve welcomes some 30,000 – 40,000 visitors per day.

By Jonathan Rothwell, Gallup,

Just over half of U.S. teenagers (51%) report spending at least four hours per day using a variety of social media apps such as YouTube, TikTok, Instagram, Facebook and X (formerly Twitter), a Gallup survey of more than 1,500 adolescents finds. This use amounts to 4.8 hours per day for the average U.S. teen across seven social media platforms tested in the survey.

Across age groups, the average time spent on social media ranges from as low as 4.1 hours per day for 13-year-olds to as high as 5.8 hours per day for 17-year-olds. Girls spend nearly an hour more on social media than boys (5.3 vs. 4.4 hours, respectively).

These data are from the Familial and Adolescent Health Survey conducted by Gallup June 26-July 17, 2023, using the Gallup Panel. The survey collected data from 6,643 parents and 1,591 adolescents who were the children of those parents. The survey asked about parental and child wellbeing, parenting practices, youth mental health, youth activities, quality of parent-child relationships, and other topics. The data were collected amid growing concerns from academic scholars that social media use is habit-forming, leads to overconsumption and may contribute to mental health problems. A recent report published by Gallup and the Institute for Family Studies contributes to this discussion.

YouTube, TikTok Top the List of Favorite Social Media Apps

The results show that YouTube and TikTok are by far the most popular social media apps among teens. Teens report spending an average of 1.9 hours per day on YouTube and 1.5 hours per day on TikTok, with boys spending more time on YouTube and girls spending more time on TikTok. Instagram is also popular with teens, attracting 0.9 hours of use per day.

Personality Traits, Parental Restrictions Key Factors in Teens’ Use

Further analysis of the findings shows that the personality traits and parenting experiences of adolescents are associated with their level of social media use.

Adolescents were asked measures of what psychologists call the “Big 5 personality traits.” One of the scales that is particularly relevant, conscientiousness, pertains to self-control and self-regulation. The least conscientious adolescents — those scoring in the bottom quartile on the four items in the survey — spend an average of 1.2 hours more on social media per day than those who are highly conscientious (in the top quartile of the scale). Of the remaining Big 5 personality traits, emotional stability, openness to experience, agreeableness and extroversion are all negatively correlated with social media use, but the associations are weaker compared with conscientiousness.

Likewise, on average, adolescents report 1.8 hours less time on social media apps if their parents strongly agree that they restrict screen time, compared with parents who strongly disagree.

Using the larger sample of parents with children aged 3 to 19, one in four parents (25%) strongly agree that they restrict screen time for their children, which does not vary between mothers and fathers. Parental education is weakly related to screen time restrictions, with graduate degree holders slightly more likely than parents with less education to strongly agree that they restrict screen time.

The political ideology of the parent is more closely related to restrictions. Forty-one percent of very conservative parents strongly agree that they restrict screen time, compared with 26% of conservative parents and 23% among moderate, liberal or very liberal parents. Very liberal parents are more than twice as likely as conservative or very conservative parents to strongly disagree that they restrict screen time.

Bottom Line

Amid declining teen mental health, many scholars such as social psychologist Jonathan Haidt have carefully investigated the role of social media, given the explosion in time spent using such applications. Studies have pointed out how technology companies manipulate users into spending more time on the apps through their designs. There is hard evidence to support this view. In a 2022 article published in the journal American Economic Review, economists reported the results of an experiment with young adults designed to affect their social media use; they conclude that 31% of time spent on social media stems from what the researchers describe as “self-control problems.”

Consistent with the literature on “digital addiction,” these data show that teens who spend more time on social media rate themselves as being less conscientious more generally and live with parents who are less likely to restrict screen time. The second, upcoming part of this analysis reveals that these characteristics also predict poor mental health — and seem to explain at least some of the observed relationship between social media use and mental health problems.