Taiwan Unveils First Domestic-Made Submarine With Eye On China Threat
Taiwan has unveiled its first-ever domestically built submarine in a rollout ceremony on Thursday led by President Tsai Ing-wen, who praised the large diesel-electric vessel which is officially named the “Narwhal” (loosely translated: “sea monster”).
“The submarine is an important realization of our concrete commitment in defending our country,” Tsai announced at the ceremony which was attended by hundreds of military and government personnel. “It is also important equipment for our naval forces in developing asymmetric warfare strategies.”
“In the past, many people thought building an indigenous submarine would be an impossible task. But we have made it,” she underscored. Interestingly, it was Tsai herself who was instrumental in launching plans for a first Taiwanese-built submarine back in 2016.
These broader plans include a goal of eventually having eight total domestic-built submarines, which is likely to be at least a decade or two in the future. Currently the self-ruled island’s military operates a pair of Dutch-made submarines since the 1980s.
The submarine program is seen as crucial amid a growing Chinese threat to Taiwan’s self-declared independence; however, China doesn’t appear too concerned, as CNN notes of Beijing’s response:
Asked about the new submarine at a monthly press briefing on Thursday, China’s Defense Ministry likened the vessel to “a mantis trying to stop a chariot”, invoking a common Chinese idiom.
But still, Taipei is celebrating the achievement of an “impossible task” – which Chinese officials are surely concerned by, no matter Beijing’s public brush-off of the news:
“In the past, a domestically developed submarine was considered an impossible task. But, today, a submarine designed and manufactured by our country’s people sits before our eyes,” Tsai said, adding that it would play an important role in strengthening the navy’s “asymmetric warfare” capabilities.
The Narwhal is still not expected to enter service with the navy for another two years, so by 2025 Taiwan will have a total of three active submarines patrolling its waters.
Ever since then House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan in August 2022, China’s PLA navy and aerial forces have greatly ramped up activity near the island, frequently breaching the Taiwan Strait ‘median line’ – as well as on a weekly basis entering its Air Defense Identification Zone.
Former President Donald Trump and two of his sons have criticized a New York judge for suggesting his Mar-a-Lago Palm Beach resort is worth between $18–28 million.
“If Mar-a-Lago is worth $18 million … I’ll take 10 please!!!” Donald Trump Jr., an executive vice president of Trump Organization, wrote on X, formerly known as Twitter.
Judge Arthur Engoron implied the market value of the property in a Sept. 26 summary ruling that found President Trump’s business empire liable for fraudulently inflating property values in loan paperwork. He revoked the Trump Organization’s business licenses in the state and ordered it dissolved.
President Trump’s lawyers argued that the banks providing the loans didn’t care about the valuations produced by the company because they do their own. All the loans have or are being properly repaid with interest, they noted. The judge ruled, however, that under New York law the state can sue for inflated property values even if nobody was harmed by them.
Mar-a-Lago was overvalued by “at least 2,300%” because the Palm Beach County Assessor assigned it a market value of $18 million to $27.6 million between 2011–2021, while the Trump Organization valued it at $426,529,614–$612,110,496 on its Statements of Financial Condition (SFC) in those same years, the judge said.
There are problems with using either of the valuations.
The county’s website says that “the estimate of Total Market Value is for tax assessment purposes only” and “the Total Market Value estimate may be less than the actual market value of the property.”
Meanwhile, the SFCs include a disclaimer that the asset values are “determined by Mr. Trump in conjunction with his associates and, in some instances, outside professionals” and “the estimates presented herein are not necessarily indicative of the amount that could be realized upon the disposition of the assets or payment of the related liabilities.”
President Trump referred to the disclaimer as a “worthless clause,” saying it indicated to him that the documents were more an enumeration of his assets, rather than their actual market valuation.
The judge rejected that reasoning, arguing the disclaimer is itself “worthless” as a defense because it “does not use the words ‘worthless’ or ‘useless’ or ‘ignore’ or ‘disregard’ or any similar words.”
The actual market value of Mar-a-Lago is unclear.
President Trump’s lawyers presented a real estate expert, Lawrence Moens, “who they purport is ‘the most accomplished and knowledgeable ultra-high net worth real estate broker in Palm Beach, Florida,’” the judge said.
“His dominance of one of the country’s richest real estate markets is total,” a 2022 Real Deal profile of the secretive realtor said, noting that he closed perhaps $1 billion worth of deals in just the 18 months of the COVID-19 pandemic real estate mania.
Valuing Mar-a-Lago at $425 million–$612 million was “appropriate and indeed conservative,” Mr. Moens told the court. The property is currently worth $1.51 billion, he opined.
The judge rejected the opinion as “speculative” and made as “without relying on any objective evidence.”
The property isn’t currently for sale and the family has indicated it doesn’t plan to ever sell it, according to the Trump family.
The 62,500-square-foot mansion built in 1927 in the style of Mediterranean palaces with splendid Art Deco interiors sits on 20 acres of pampered property spanning the width of Palm Beach.
President Trump put the resort under a conservation easement in 2002 that prohibits him from further developing it or changing its use from a social club. In exchange, he pays lower taxes on it.
President Trump’s personal valuations of the property didn’t reflect these restrictions the judge argued, without explaining what the property should have been properly valued at, save for the county assessor’s reference.
While restricted use may deter some buyers, Mr. Moens told the court that, if for sale, he could “in short order … produce a ready, willing and able buyer who would have interest in securing the property for their personal use as a residence, or even, their own club.”
“I could dream up anyone from Elon Musk to Bill Gates and everyone in between. Kings, emperors, heads of state,” he said.
Moreover, President Trump’s lawyers noted that there are legal avenues for breaking through the restrictions.
The judge picked on Mr. Moens’s word choice, saying that “obviously, this Court cannot consider an ‘expert affidavit’ that is based on unexplained and unsubstantiated ‘dreams.’”
“The real estate circles in Florida are laughing at this foolishness,” commented Eric Trump, President Trump’s son and also an executive vice president at his company, in an X post.
He pointed to real estate listings from the area showing homes ranging 5,000–11,500 square feet and farther from the beach than Mar-a-Lago listed at prices up to $40 million.
The civil suit was brought by New York Attorney General Letitia James targeting the former president as well as his sons Mr. Eric Trump and Mr. Donald Trump Jr.
The judge so far ruled on one part of the suit dealing with allegations of overvalued properties. Other parts of the suit are scheduled for a non-jury trial starting on Oct. 2.
Ms. James is asking for penalties of $250 million, as well as removing the three defendants from their posts in the company and barring them from holding executive posts in New York State.
President Trump as well as his sons denounced the case as politically motivated.
“Today, I lost all faith in the New York legal system,” Mr. Eric Trump said. “Never before have I seen such hatred toward one person by a judge—a coordinated effort with the Attorney General to destroy a man’s life, company, and accomplishments.”
“We have run an exceptional company—never missing a loan payment, making banks hundreds of millions of dollars, developing some of the most iconic assets in the world. Yet today, the persecution of our family continues,” he wrote.
President Trump is also facing several other civil suits as well as four criminal indictments in New York, Florida, the District of Columbia, and Georgia.
Reality Check For Reality TV: Fewer Viewers Among Top Programs
Its chaos, cringe factor and supposed authenticity made reality TV part of the collective identity of television audiences all over the worldwhen it started out in the 1990s.
In the 2009-10 season ending in May, around a third of average weekly top 50 viewership was still taken up by reality TV shows like American Idol, Survivor, The Amazing Race, The Biggest Loser, Extreme Makeover and Hell’s Kitchen, among others. The fast ascend of the genre has partially been credited to the lower production value many shows had opposite scripted dramas. Almost one and a half decades later, only the first two of these programs have remained in the top 50 of America’s most viewed TV shows. They can however be found much further down the ranking together with two newer singing shows, The Voice and The Masked Singer.
All in all, reality TV viewership among top 50 shows only made up around 12 percent of aggregate average weekly viewership in the last annual TV season, which ended May 2023.
While American Idol’s twice weekly screenings together with Dancing With The Stars were the three most viewed U.S. TV shows in 2009-10 and 2010-11, The Voice’s two installments were only the 19th and 20th most viewed programs in 2022-23.
All star reprises to popular shows have found their way into the top 50 TV shows in recent years as part of the America’s Got Talent franchise and could boost reality TV viewership a little, but generally, reality TV is playing less of a role today. Another reason for this is that many newer reality formats, like celebrity-based shows, have flourished on cable TV or even streaming. One example of this is the Kardashian reality franchise, which ran for 20 seasons on E! and starts its fourth season under new name, The Kardashians, on Hulu today. Broadcast channels meanwhile have capture their bigger audiences with talent and other contestant-based shows.
America doesn’t have enough ships and building more takes far too long.
A war with any level of attrition in the Pacific could quickly turn catastrophic without sufficient warships, combat logistics vessels, and merchant ships. Outnumbered and without the capacity to replace, refuel, and provision our troops, we would struggle to deliver victory.
This precarious situation carries significant implications for our economy, national security, and international standing. Consequently, America must act now, before it is too late, to set a new maritime trajectory by building a coherent national maritime strategy.
Chinese Communist Party leaders are students of history, and they recognize America’s arsenal of democracy all but ensured America’s triumph in the Pacific in World War II. Overwhelming numerical force, new ships, and maritime shipping secured our victory.
Now, the Pentagon considers China the world’s top shipbuilder, not America. China controls the world’s 4th largest shipping company, and its Navy is the world’s largest.
Meanwhile, America’s maritime enterprise reflects years of neglect and decline, despite being the world’s largest economy, and relying heavily on global maritime trade.
Following World War II, American commercial shipbuilding led the world in output and tonnage. Today, the United States ranks just 19th in shipbuilding and produces less than ½ a percent of the world’s commercial ships.
The fate of our shipping heritage is no different. In 1947, the United States fleet of over 5,000 vessels represented 40% of the world’s shipping capacity. By the 1960’s, however, America’s nearly 3,000 ships only carried 16% of the world’s cargo. Most recently, our nation’s international trading fleet consisted of merely 80 ships, accounting for less than 1.5% of global trade.
What about the United States Navy? During the late 1980s, the fleet size was nearly 590 ships, but it has dwindled to about 290 ships today. Meanwhile, China’s naval forces have soared to 340 warships, with hundreds more guided missile patrol boats and armed maritime militia vessels.
These trends directly translated into a decline of our nation’s power and influence.
Rebuilding that power through maritime strength requires a holistic approach, considering the readiness of our entire maritime machinery – infrastructure, workforce, technology, policies, industry, shipping fleets, and sea services. We need our own National Maritime Strategy to pull all these elements together and provide a true strategy for competing with China on the high seas, growing our maritime economy, protecting the freedom of the seas, and sustaining our oceanic resources.
Such a strategic design starts with recognizing our nation needs American-built and crewed ships, but we also need help changing our nation’s maritime trajectory.
We are in a race against time since China now has more than 200 times the shipbuilding capacity of the United States. Of course, we prefer all our ships be American built. But, in the race with our greatest adversary, we need a mix of US, Japanese, South Korean, and European-built ships in a Reagan-style build-up. I applaud efforts like our Navy’s Shipyard Infrastructure Optimization Program, but that program is spread over 20 years and is focused solely on public shipyards. That’s too little too late.
We must complement efforts to improve shipbuilding capacity by using drones. Smaller, cheaper platforms are easier to build and provide an affordable path for quickly ramping up the size and reach of our nation’s fleets. Let’s not reinvent the wheel but instead tap into the wealth of existing technology and operations to scale our military, civil, and commercial fleets.
Finally, Congress should cultivate a finance and regulatory environment to make civil and commercial shipbuilding and shipping industries more competitive globally. Close loopholes that permit private equity funds to flood Chinese shipyards and harness those resources for domestic projects.
This means writing new laws that encourage and protect private investment in shipbuilding, shipping, and projects of national interest. Make it easier, safer, and more profitable for Wall Street firms, private equity, and the American public to invest in our nation’s naval activities.
Only Congress can provide the funding, prioritization, and accountability necessary to revitalize and sustain our maritime enterprise and position America for success on the seas. The strategic maritime environment demands urgent action to develop a national maritime strategy that synchronizes stakeholders, resources, and policy, leading to unity of maritime effort.
As a direct response to this vital need, I sponsored legislation in this year’s NDAA to hold the administration accountable for producing such a design. I will continue working with my colleagues Roger Wicker, Trent Kelly, and Rob Wittman on this national security crisis. Working hand in hand with the people of this great nation, we will ensure America’s place as a global leader on the seas.
Mike Waltz represents Florida’s 6th Congressional District and is a member of the House Armed Services Committee, Foreign Affairs Committee, and Select Committee on Intelligence. He is a Green Beret veteran of the war in Afghanistan, a former White House counterterrorism policy adviser, and a defense policy director for secretaries of Defense Donald Rumsfeld and Robert Gates.
Here Is What Stops, And What Doesn’t, When The Government Shuts Down This Weekend
Last week we laid out what the economic consequences of a lengthy government shutdown would likely be, among them a drop in GDP and a spike in the unemployment rate perhaps sufficient to push the US economy into recession, not to mention a halt in most economic data reporting..
… but ahead of the Sept 30 midnight drop dead date, there is still some confusion so let’s recap the main points, the first of which is that a government shutdown should not be confused with the debt ceiling and its potential for a sovereign default.
As JPM writes in its latest shutdown note, if no deal is reached by Oct 1 – which is now certainly the default case – then a continuing resolution is one of the more likely paths, but should a CR remain in place by Jan 1, 2024, then there will be an automatic cut to military/defense spending.
A government shutdown does not actually shutdown all aspects of the government, as many elements are exempted. In addition to the items listed below, JPM assumes that Departments of Defense, Health and Human Services, Homeland Security, State, and the Social Security Administration continue to make payments.
Some more details on the economic impact
The 5-week shutdown from 2018-19 reduced real GDP by $11bn or 0.3%; $3bn of that $11bn was likely non-recoverable once the government reopened.
In the past events, the 10Y yield has dropped both ahead of the shutdown (beginning as many as 15 days ahead) and throughout the shutdown.
What about Equities?
JPM’s Mkt Intel desk finds that if you one uses the bank’s sample size of shutdowns lasting more than one business day, the SPX fell 2.5% in the 10 days leading up to the shutdown with Tech and Real Estate the biggest laggards.
If the shutdown reaches the 10-day mark, the SPX will have rebounded by ~2% led by Cyclicals and Tech the only major sector producing a negative return.
Once a resolution is reached, the SPX trades up 80bps at the 10-day mark, +3.6% at the 30-day mark, and +5.9% at the 90-day mark.
10-day mark: SPX +0.8% and top 3 sectors are Industrials (+2.4%), Staples (+1.9%), and Utilities (+1.3%)
30-day mark: SPX +3.6% and the top 3 sectors are Industrials (+5.2%), Healthcare (+4.9%), and Utilities (+4.5%).
90-day mark: SPX +5.9% and the top 3 sectors are Tech (+9.8%), Industrials (+8.1%), and Materials (+7.9%).
Finally, courtesy of Bloomberg, here is a summary of what government services would stop on Oct 1, and what would go on:
Not all services would abruptly stop. Medicare payments and efforts to safeguard nuclear weapons would be unaffected. You’d likely still get mail and be able to travel on Amtrak. You wouldn’t, however, be able to get married in DC courts.
Many federal employees are likely to be furloughed, but some will be deemed “essential” and work without pay until the shutdown ends. The last major shutdown in 2018-2019 lasted 35 days.
Federal Reserve activity would be unaffected, meaning the central bank could still raise interest rates at its next meeting Nov. 1.
Financial Regulators
The Federal Trade Commission would stop “the vast bulk of its competition and consumer protection investigations.”
The Securities & Exchange Commission wouldn’t review or approve registrations from investment advisers, broker-dealers, transfer agents, rating organizations, investment companies and municipal advisors.
IRS
The Internal Revenue Service has yet to release plans for this potential shutdown. Previous plans said the agency would use funds from President Joe Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act to keep employees paid and working. A union representing IRS workers has said new plans are being discussed that would involve some furloughs.
Businesses and individuals who requested six-month extensions for their tax returns in April are still required to file by Oct. 16.
The Interior Department would retain limited discretion to issue permits for energy projects on federal lands and waters when user fees are attached.
A funding lapse would paralyze other work to develop required environmental analyses for energy projects, highways and other infrastructure.
The Environmental Protection Agency may be able to continue some IRA-funded activities as well as other exempted work, such as settlement-funded cleanup at some Superfund sites.
The White House has warned most EPA-led inspections at hazardous waste sites, as well as drinking water and chemical facilities, would stop.
The Energy Information Administration, which publishes snapshots of US oil inventories and fuel demand, would continue to collect and publish data on schedule — at least initially.
The Nuclear Regulatory Commission would stop licensing, certification and permitting and inspection activities, along with emergency preparedness exercises.
Transportation & Travel
Travelers could face delays as air traffic controllers and Transportation Security Administration officers working without pay could lead to higher rates of no-shows, as happened in 2019.
Passports and visas would still be issued at consular offices worldwide, provided “there are sufficient fees to support operations.”
Defense
Efforts “to defend the nation and conduct ongoing military operations” would continue, but most civilian Defense Department employees would be on furlough.
The National Institutes of Health might have to postpone clinical trials for diseases like cancer or Alzheimer’s, according to the White House.
Medicine-price negotiations could be sent into disarray, as some drugmakers face an Oct. 2 deadline to report data to Medicare for use in determining new prices.
Food stamps for low-income people, the disabled, and others could be delayed.
Social Security checks would be delivered, and applications for benefits processed, but people would not be able to verify benefits or replace Medicare cards.
Parks
Most national parks would likely be shuttered, turning away visitors and crippling businesses in the $800 billion outdoor recreation economy.
“Nearly all” Department of Housing and Urban Development fair housing work would stop, as would some monthly subsidy programs, including potentially for public housing operations.
Review or issuance of loans under the Small Business Administration would cease, including those for women-owned and service-disabled, veteran-owned small businesses.
Commerce Department collection of decennial census data probably would continue, as would forecasting and warnings around weather, water, and climate.
Holy Trinity Monastery and Seminary in Jordanville, New York, the spiritual center of the Russian Orthodox Church Outside of Russia (ROCOR), had to be evacuated on Thursday afternoon, September 28 due to a bomb threat.
The threat was called in due to the perpetrators’ belief that Jordanville supports the war in Ukraine. This was reported to OrthoChristian by multiple sources.
While OrthoChristian is unaware of any statements about the war coming from Holy Trinity Monastery and Seminary in particular, the monastery site does have a page entitled, “Concerning the War in Ukraine,” which hosts links to the Archpastoral Epistle of His Eminence Metropolitan Hilarion, the recently deceased First Hierarch of ROCOR, from February 24, 2022, the day the war started, in which he called all to fervently pray for peace, and the address of His Beatitude Metropolitan Onuphry of Kiev and All Ukraine, also from the first day of the war, in which he condemned and called for an end to what he called the “fratricidal war.”
The Foreign Affairs article argues that Russian Orthodox parishes outside of Russia, and especially in America, are a source of strong backing for the Russian government, which, the authors say, was cultivated over the course of two decades by an unnamed employee of the Russian Church’s Department for External Church Relations.
However, the article is hampered at least by plain factual errors, such as massively overestimating the number of Russian Orthodox parishes in America, and a gross misrepresentation of the stance towards the war from both the canonical Ukrainian Orthodox Church and His Grace Bishop Irenei of London and Western Europe, who issued a response.
US mainstream media has just this month begun airing unverified claims that Russian intelligence is embedding itself in Orthodox churches in the West…
CNN:
‘The Kremlin is trying to use Orthodox churches in the US to recruit spies and intelligence sources.
They warn Russian Orthodox churches that they could be targeted for recruitment by Russian intelligence services”
Major Cold Trend Set To Unleash ‘Frost-Freeze’ Threat Across Eastern US
We all survived the apparent ‘climate apocalypse’ corporate media warned about this summer with endless headlines about how the world would imminently erupt into a giant fireball. The climate math pushed by media outlets such as ABC, The New York Times, Axios, and Bloomberg was so questionable that the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration had to denounce the media ‘hysteria’ about the “hottest day ever.” By late August, 1,600 scientists signed a declaration refuting the existence of a climate crisis, as now the loudest media outlets warning about climate doom have gone silent as fall approaches.
Looking at Bloomberg data using the “NT” headline search function, “hottest day ever” in all media headlines tends to surge in July, the hottest point of the Northern Hemisphere summer. Like 2022, the public was bombarded with climate doom headlines this summer as media tried to convince folks that cow farts and petrol cars were behind sweltering temperatures. Now, those headlines have all but vanished.
“Hottest day ever” headlines surged at the time average temperatures across the Lower 48 peak in July. A 30-year seasonal trend of average temperatures showed, for the most part, that deviation from the mean was not severe. And since the peak, Lower 48 average temperatures have been sliding.
The climate is changing:
Now, meteorologists forecast a cold front to sweep parts of the Lower 48 in weeks.
Private weather forecasters BAMWX said, “We have been talking about an October cold front for weeks in our videos to clients. Overnight data took a MAJOR turn to cool!”
“*MAJOR* colder trends across all of the model data last night,” BAMWX continued, adding, “One of the biggest flips in model guidance we’ve seen in a long time and it would increase the threat of a frost/freeze the second week of October for the Midwest/Great Lakes/NE US.”
*MAJOR* colder trends across all of the model data last night.
One of the biggest flips in model guidance we’ve seen in a long time and it would increase the threat of a frost/freeze the second week of October for the Midwest/Great Lakes/NE US. #AGwxhttps://t.co/UQhaRd1MOFpic.twitter.com/lYJnckKoj9
In a separate forecast, meteorologist Spencer Denton of Action Five News in Memphis forecasts a similar cold blast around Oct. 10: “There are signs of our first decent fall cold front arriving around Oct. 10. How cool or cold is still in question. Stay tuned fall weather fans.”
There are signs of our first decent fall cold front arriving around October 10th. How cool or cold is still in question. Stay tuned fall weather fans. pic.twitter.com/dvavMZ85ok
Another meteorologist shared a long-term snow forecast…
❄️❄️It’s a model with a somewhat questionable record AND it’s looking 5 months down the road, BUT the Climate Forecast System model is highlighting the Carolinas and much of the Southeastern US for well below normal temperatures this winter. BRING. IT. ON. ❄️❄️ #SCwx#NCwx… pic.twitter.com/Ljgy0JKFV5
We cited Peter Geiger, editor of the Farmer’s Almanac, in an Aug. 19 weather note that said, “The ‘brrr’ is coming back! We expect more snow and low temperatures nationwide.”
Suppose a cold blast does materialize in the Lower 48 by mid-Oct. It may have widespread implications for ag and energy markets.
Journos at corporate media are plotting their next bombardment of headlines, somehow linking cold weather to cow farts.
The climate is constantly changing, and the global warming narrative is imploding as even climate alarmist Bill Gates had to backtrack on his ‘climate doom’ prophecies recently.
After ignoring questions about Ibram Kendi’s work for years, Boston University will now look into management at the Center for Antiracist Research.
Boston University will investigate the center’s “culture and its grant management practices,” following complaints. The center reportedly raised $55 million, which includes at least $10 million from former Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey.
“To ensure its long-term impact and sustainability, Kendi made the decision to restructure the center to create a residential fellowship program for antiracist intellectuals, creators, and students,” BU announced on Sep. 21.
“He announced the layoffs as part of the restructuring (19 staff people were laid off, leaving a staff at the center of 15 to 17 people moving forward).”
This comes not only after Professor Saida Grundy first raised concerns in 2021, according to the student newspaper, but after The College Fix and other media outlets have questioned Kendi’s output.
BU said it “recognize[s] the importance of Dr. Kendi’s work and the significant impact it has had on antiracist thinking and policy” and looks forward to working with him on the inquiry. But Kendi’s “work” has often been lacking and other joint ventures with the professor have fallen through.
Most recently, and just prior to the public implosion of the center, The Fix reported that Kendi had not written an academic paper in the past four years. The Aug. 21 article noted he had written at least two children’s books in the same period.
In March 2021, The Fixasked“What exactly does Ibram Kendi do all day,” following original Fix reporting that found the center director had made at least $300,000 lecturing on how America is racist.
The Fix also questioned a promised “Racial Data Lab” in January 2021 that was supposed to be a partnership between Professor Azer Bestavros and the center. When asked for comment on the tracker, Bestavros said it had nothing to do with his work. “Your questions are not about my work or my research,” he said at the time in an email.
The Fix asked him if he had any concerns about Kendi’s ability to follow through on projects – media reporting had shown he failed to deliver on a similar racial data tracker, instead relying on volunteers with The Atlantic. Yet, Kendi cited the “COVID Racial Data Tracker” as an accomplishment of the center in his Sep. 22 statement.
Bestavros did not reply to requests for comment six months later, nor did Kendi’s team. The Fix frequently reached out to Boston University, including spokesman Colin Riley, and other Kendi associates for comments over the course of two articles on Kendi’s tracker and a third one about the now-ended relationship with The Boston Globe.
The Fix reached out to at least seven different Kendi associates or representatives a total of twenty times for just those three articles. In all cases, requests for comment were ignored or not substantially answered.
Kendi did comment on the situation in a post on X, formerly known as Twitter.
While acknowledging “missteps” he also played his favorite card, saying that “[l]eaders of color and women leaders are often held to different standards” and called his center’s work “crucial” for “antiracist” efforts.
All eyes are on the Federal Reserve, and people are wondering, what will it do next? The messaging coming from the central bankers is that they will need to keep interest rates higher for longer. But is that possible given the economic conditions and all of the debt in the economy?
Investment and economics writer Jim Grant appeared on CNBC’s Squawk Box to discuss the Fed’s inflation fight and its impact on the economy. He said we ask too much of the central bankers. After all, they are only human.
Grant opened the interview by taking exception to Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee’s assertion that the current federal funds rate is “restrictive.”
His own Financial Conditions Index, produced by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, shows, oddly enough, that financial conditions, as defined, are looser than average even after this short of zero to 60 in six seconds of rate increases.”
So yes, monetary policy is “tighter,” but it is not yet “tight.”
Grant has said we are likely entering into a generational bear market in bonds. He pointed out that interest rates are unique because they tend to follow generational cycles. That’s been true in the US since the Civil War.
I say we just ended in 2021 40 years, 4-0 years, of persistently declining rates, which ended, and something I think financial historians are going to puzzle over for many many years, which is negative nominal rates — bonds priced to yields less than nothing to the tune of like $15 or $16 trillion. … It seems to me every big move in financial markets, whether its bonds or anything else, tends to climax in some absurdity, some valuation excess with the stock puppet 1999 or negative nominal yields in 2020-2021.”
Looking back, we had 40 years of declining interest rates. Before that, we had 35 years of generally increasing rates that ended in 1981. Grant said it’s simply a matter of pattern recognition “to give it its intellectual most dignified term.”
This is nothing like a physical law, but this, as I say, has been the form for many, many years in bonds.”
The CNBC host seemed a bit befuddled by Grant’s analysis. After all, if the Fed is controlling rates, why would we see these long trends? If the economy is doing well, the central bankers can raise rates. If the economy suffers, they can lower them.
Grant said “they” don’t always control events.
He quoted former British Prime Minster Harold Macmillan who was asked, “What might go wrong.” He responded, “My boy, events! Events might go wrong.”
We have been used to, I think, imputing to the Fed immense powers of foresight and control. But oftentimes, the Fed, like so many of us, finds itself not in the vanguard of action or thought, but rather running behind to catch up. You know, the Fed can will all it likes to return the 2% world it has defined for itself, but if the past is prologue, the Fed will be evolving a new set of narratives to explain the new world. And I expect that to be coming at Jackson Hole any summer now.”
While it is difficult to see the future, Grant said we can at least observe the present and size up the odds the markets are laying on certain outcomes.
Grant called the Fed members “well-intentioned human beings,” with an emphasis on human beings. He said many scored well on the SAT and they probably would have rather worked at NASA doing physical science as opposed to the “pseudoscience” of economic forecasting.
As recently as the early months of 2022, with inflation percolating above 5%, they were still doing QE. So, we ask too much of them, or indeed, of any set of human beings.”
Would some kind of rule-based system be better?
Grant gave an enthusiastic, yes!
The rule would be that interest rates ought to be discovered in the market rather than imposed or suppressed. We have decided over the course of many years to conduct our monetary affairs by kind of a Ph.D. standard of improvisation. There are no rules, per se. The dollar is uncollateralized as it had been from the beginning of the country to 1971. So, to some extent, we are playing tennis without a net, and without baselines, and without sidelines. So, circumspection in public finance is out the window.”
Demonstrating just how out of whack things have become, Grant pointed out that in private sector terms, the Fed is broke.
So, what about all of the investors and businesspeople who have made bets based on perpetually low interest rates? Grant said he thinks the odds are against them.
Within this long cycle — this projected, imagined long cycle I foresee — there are all sorts of twists and turns. There were in the 70s, for example. Inflation didn’t go straight up. It was in three phases or slices. So, if past is prologue, what we’ll see is a time of long-trending higher rates with head-fakes that will get people convinced that 2% is right around the corner.”
It can be difficult to believe that the wild scenes that we are witnessing on the streets of America are actually real. Earlier this week, I wrote an article entitled “What Life Is Really Like In America’s Hellish Inner Cities”. I wrote that article before the widespread looting that just erupted in Philadelphia. Just when I think that conditions in our core urban areas have reached a low point, they seem to find a way to get even worse. Unfortunately, this is just the beginning of this crisis. As economic conditions continue to deteriorate, countless numbers of people will become very desperate. And when countless numbers of people become very desperate, our society will descend into a permanent state of chaos.
On Tuesday night, dozens of young people went on a rampage in the city of Philadelphia.
Dozens of people faced criminal charges Wednesday after a night of social media-fueled mayhem in which groups of thieves, apparently working together, smashed their way into stores in several areas of Philadelphia, stuffing plastic bags with merchandise and fleeing, authorities said.
A total of 52 arrests have been made so far, police said Wednesday.
Burglary, theft and other counts have been filed so far against at least 30 people, all but three of them adults, according to Jane Roh, spokesperson for the Philadelphia district attorney’s office.
The largest group consisted of approximately 100 young people, and there was violence when the police finally confronted that group outside of a Lululemon store…
Police in the city said that a large group of around 100 juveniles kept moving from store to store and looting them.
Videos shared on social media show officers attempting to grab thieves, some of whom are wearing Halloween masks, as they run riot through a Lululemon store.
One officer manages to hit one of the looters with a punch after tackling them to the ground.
Many on social media seem to be quite entertained by videos of the looting, but the truth is that this footage should break all of our hearts.
Seeking another George Floyd moment, #BLM protesters tell one another to start recording after Philadelphia Police arrived to make arrests at the downtown mass looting. Video uploaded by @OSiiNT:pic.twitter.com/oEyKU3Mhwk
Our society is literally coming apart at the seams all around us.
I had warned my readers that total retail theft would exceed 100 billion dollars this year, but now it is being reported that total retail theft already broke that threshold in 2022…
Last year, total losses tied to theft amounted to $112.1 billion, according to data from the 2023 National Retail Security Survey. That is up from $93.9 billion in losses in 2021 and $90.8 billion in 2020.
Retailers within metros including Los Angeles, San Francisco and Oakland as well as Houston, New York and Seattle were hit the hardest last year.
So if last year’s number was 112 billion, what will the final number be for 2023?
130 billion?
140 billion?
150 billion?
Major retail chains all over America are shutting down stores due to rampant theft.
Target Corp. will shutter nine stores across four states on Oct. 21 because of theft and threats to safety, the company announced Tuesday, the latest — and loudest —example of a retailer exiting urban locations because of crime.
Target said it made the “difficult decision” to close the stores — which include locations in the Harlem neighborhood of New York City, Seattle, Portland and the San Francisco Bay area — after the Minneapolis-based company determined that theft-preventive measures had proved ineffective. The company said it had tried adding more security, including third-party guards, and using deterrents such as locking up merchandise.
“We cannot continue operating these stores because theft and organized retail crime are threatening the safety of our team and guests and contributing to unsustainable business performance,” the company said.
But nine stores is just a drop in the bucket compared to what other retailers are doing.
One of the largest U.S. drugstores chains Rite Aid is set to close around 500 stores nationwide as it negotiates a plan to file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy.
The Wall Street Journal reported that the firm, which is the third largest in the country, is looking to close branches and either sell or let creditors take over their remaining operations.
Drugstore chain CVS is set to close hundreds of stores across the US as it undergoes a major reform to adjust to the needs of modern online shoppers.
The retail giant is coming to the end of a policy launched in 2021 which will see 300 stores closed each year – meaning 900 will have shuttered by 2024.
In the announcement, which has hit headlines again recently amid rampant shoplifting at the store, bosses they said that they were undergoing a new ‘retail footprint strategy.’
Drugstores used to be all over the place in our core urban areas.
But now our inner cities are littered with scores of boarded up establishments with “space available” signs on them.
This is what the future of America looks like, and it isn’t good.
Once upon a time, we could be proud of the shiny new cities that we had built from coast to coast.
Those cities were safe and they were clean.
But now our major cities have degenerated into crime-ridden hellholes that are absolutely filthy. In New York City, the millions of rats that live there are constantly making headlines…
This is the moment a group of horrified New Yorkers is forced to hop over scores of vermin scurrying across their path from bins outside a pizzeria.
Footage shows a few rats brazenly scurry across the pavement before scores of them emerge from an overflowing bin.
Taryn Brady, 29, who was with a group of friends when she filmed the rat encounter, said she was left in ‘fear and disgust’ after she and her friends had to hop over the rodents running towards them.
This is our country now.
I know that I keep saying that, but it is such an important point.
We don’t have the same nation that previous generations passed down to us.
Over the past 50 to 60 years, we have literally ruined America.
From the White House all the way down to the kids that are looting retailers in our major cities, we have become a laughingstock to the rest of the world.
Michael’s new book entitled “End Times” is now available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can check out his new Substack newsletter right here.
