New Mexico Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham’s (D) suspension of open and concealed carry firearms rights under the guise of a ‘public health emergency’ sparked a rally of New Mexicans who overwhelmingly said they won’t comply with the governor’s unconstitutional order. 

News2Share’s Ford Fischer covered one rally in the Old Town area of Albuquerque where he described “Gun owners – many visibly armed” defied the “New Mexico Governor’s Executive Order banning the open and concealed carry of firearms there as a one-month emergency’.”  

VIDEO THREAD: Gun owners – many visibly armed – rallied in old Town Albuquerque today to openly defy the New Mexico Governor’s Executive Order banning the open and concealed carry of firearms there as a one-month “emergency.”

Police did not intervene or enforce the order. pic.twitter.com/BAk0kDZC9A

— Ford Fischer (@FordFischer) September 10, 2023

“One speaker at the armed rally in Albuquerque defying the gun carrying ban told the crowd that they need to go out and do this every day, or else it wouldn’t have an impact,” Fischer said, adding, “While the police didn’t enforce the order, it includes a $5000 fine for violators.”

2) One speaker at the armed rally in Albuquerque defying the gun carrying ban told the crowd that they need to go out and do this every day, or else it wouldn’t have an impact.

While the police didn’t enforce the order, it includes a $5000 fine for violators. pic.twitter.com/dNiEYdWRtt

— Ford Fischer (@FordFischer) September 10, 2023

“One apparent anti-gun protester was yelled at, but then invited by the speaker to say his piece on the stage,” he continued. “The crowd yelled at him for wearing a mask and applauded him when he took it off,” he noted. 

3) One apparent anti-gun protester was yelled at, but then invited by the speaker to say his piece on the stage.

The crowd yelled at him for wearing a mask and applauded him when he took it off.

He expressed concern about gun violence in schools, which the speaker and crowd… pic.twitter.com/r8ENh8IKAC

— Ford Fischer (@FordFischer) September 10, 2023

The rally was sparked by Democrat Gov. Grisham’s suspension of carrying guns – either through open or concealed carry permits – in Bernalillo County and the City of Albuquerque for 30 days.

“No constitutional right, in my view, including my oath, is intended to be absolute. There are restrictions on free speech, there are restrictions on my freedoms,” she said. 

The Governor of New Mexico has just declared the 1st & 2nd Amendment “does not exist” due to an “emergency.”

Under this legal theory *all* of our “rights” are essentially eliminated.

Watch the most evil & tyrannical 60 seconds you’ve ever heard from a politician: pic.twitter.com/xLpMSTbyi2

— Benny Johnson (@bennyjohnson) September 9, 2023

The governor’s decision comes after the violent crime in the progressive metro area has spun out of control. And, of course, failed social justice reform policies and disastrous open southern border policies are nowhere to be mentioned (remember, there’s no accountability with Democrats for blowing up metro areas with failed policies) – instead, the governor launched an attack on the Second Amendment. This will only harm law-abiding citizens who use firearms to protect themselves and their families amid a surge in violent crime due to soft progressive policies. 

On Sunday, Gun Owners of America was the first to announce a lawsuit against Grisham. 

🚨BREAKING🚨⁰⁰GOA and @GunFoundation have officially filed our lawsuit against NM Governor Grisham and her tyrannical executive order banning firearm carry.

See you in court! 🔥

— Gun Owners of America (@GunOwners) September 10, 2023

Constitutional law attorney Jonathan Turley said the move by Grisham was “flagrantly unconstitutional under existing Second Amendment precedent.” 

… and satire is too close to reality. 

Dems Accidentally Reveal Their Plan To Destroy The Constitution Ahead of Schedule https://t.co/NioTzN1u4e pic.twitter.com/1m3ntj5RSB

— The Babylon Bee (@TheBabylonBee) September 10, 2023

Many Democrat governors and mayors who let their metro areas plunge into chaos with soft-progressive policies just got another idea on how to strip gun rights of law-abiding citizens. 

Authored by James Howard Kunstler via Kunstler.com,

The Mills Of The Gods

“We didn’t love freedom enough.”

– Aleksandr I. Solzhenitsyn

Do you think that more than half of the US public may be getting a little irked with “Joe Biden’s” lawfare elf, AG Merrick Garland, as he rolls one innocent J-6 protester after another into decades of hard-time for strolling through the US Capitol building – while the special counsels assigned to only a few of the Biden family crimes play hide-the-salami with due process?

For all their cheap talk about “our democracy,” it’s a little scary to see what Democratic Party lawyers actually think of the legal system that is supposed to allow a society based on liberty to function fairly. Court filings last week indicate that Special Counsel David Weiss is about to indict Hunter Biden on that gun charge they have used as the joker in a three-card Monte game for going on five years.

Last time, they ran the game before Delaware federal judge Maryellen Noreika, she detected a teeny-weeny, sneaky clause in the plea agreement to a watered-down gun charge that would have granted immunity to Hunter B from any other past wrongdoing, including, of course, the entire alleged Biden family racketeering operation that had the First Son acting as prime broker and bag-man for tens of millions of dollars in bribes from foreign actors in countries less than friendly to US interests, funneled into any number of Biden family shell corporations. Judge Noreika nixed the plea agreement.

Now, Mr. Weiss’s crew seems to be saying that the immunity clause is still tied to any plea deal answering a forthcoming September 29 indictment.

The move would appear to be timed to exactly the moment that a House impeachment committee would begin its inquiry into the Biden family’s moneygrubbing activities. In ordinary House committee hearings, DOJ officials like to use the excuse of “an ongoing investigation” to demur from answering questions. Merrick Garland has done this dozens of times.

Will they now try to upgrade that to “an ongoing prosecution?”

Could that move lead to a constitutional impasse, requiring the Supreme Court to rule?

Or does a House impeachment panel enjoy special privileges of inquiry?

It also appears that Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FLA) intends to force the issue of opening an impeachment ASAP against “Joe Biden.” In last January’s maneuvering to seat a new Republican House majority, Mr. Gaetz pushed through an agreement that the process to remove and replace the Speaker of the House could be activated by one vote. Mr. Gaetz reiterated last week that he means business. He’s the one vote.

The argument that Republicans should leave hands-off “Joe Biden” so they can run against the feeble old grifter in 2024 is preposterous because there is no way that the “JB” can possibly run for reelection under any circumstances. It’s just another trip being laid on the American public — and one that illustrates how tragic and dangerous is the absence of an honest news media for challenging such insolent gambits. The President can barely totter into a room now without making some embarrassing pratfall or gaffe. He couldn’t possibly survive a debate, especially with all the new records of his crimes unearthed since the last time around in 2020 when he pretended to know nothing about his son’s business dealings.

Anyway, the actual issue is not whether it’s politically advantageous to lay off “Joe Biden,” but the irrefutable fact that he (and the shadowy figures running his regime) are wrecking the country. He (they) can do a lot more damage in the many months leading up to January, 2025, especially around the dangerous idiocy that the US foreign policy gang pursues so blindly in Ukraine. You might argue that the “president” would never be convicted (actually booted out) in a Democrat majority Senate trial following a productive House impeachment. But both procedures would be televised and recorded for play on a thousand Internet channels, despite the connivance of a complicit legacy news media. And the public will finally see the case against “Joe Biden” and his family laid out carefully, precisely, and coherently, with high and grave decorum. Even some percentage of ring-fenced Democratic voters may have to finally conclude that something has gone very wrong in our country and in their own party.

*  *  *

Support his blog by visiting Jim’s Patreon Page

A relatively news-less day saw mega-cap tech (and the dollar) shrug off rising rates as bitcoin was clubbed like a baby seal.

Source: Bloomberg

Tesla soared on an MS upgrade (related more to AI)…

And so Nasdaq outperformed. The Dow and Small Caps limped lower after early gains but held on to green. The S&P was in the middle. With about 15 mins to go in the day we saw some profit-taking

0-DTE helped lift the S&P above its 50DMA but then covering dragged it back down…

This sent the Nasdaq to its all-time high relative to Russell 2000…

Source: Bloomberg

From here on it gets interesting with CPI, PPI, Retail Sales, Triple-Witching OpEx, and The Fed coming up…

Source: Bloomberg

Treasuries were mixed today but traded in very narrow ranges. The long-end underperformed with all the selling coming at the Asian open…

Source: Bloomberg

NYFRB one-year inflation expectations ticked higher (from 3.5% to 3.6%) in their latest survey echoing the recent uptick in the market’s pricing for inflation expectations…

Source: Bloomberg

2Y yield topped 5.00% briefly today before falling back but ranges were very narrow…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar dumped today, its 2nd biggest daily decline since Feb…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar’s drop hit at key resistance once again…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin tumbled back below $25,000 – with some talk of FTX dumping assets – erasing all of the post-BlackRock ETF gains starting in mid-June…

Source: Bloomberg

A lot of chatter in crypto that Altcoins face significant downside as FTX potentially seeks to dump its $3.4BN digital asset holdings. And this is happening as BTC is close to a ‘death cross’ – 50DMA dropping below 200DMA…

Source: Bloomberg

Oil prices were modestly lower on the day, but look like they are coiling-up/consolidating after the big jump…

Gold ended higher, holding some of the overnight gains (twice topping $1930 Spot)…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, with Triple-Witching looming, we note that Goldman suggests VIX is significantly ‘cheap’ (low) relative to the macro-environment…

And remember, the seasonals favor you…

Is everyone really prepared for a resurgence in CPI?

The matrix keeps glitching…

Now that only the most mentally unstable liberals are demanding that the government protect them from near certain death by forcing them to wear face diapers that don’t – and have never – worked, on the afternoon of September 11 US drug regulators – many of whom are undoubtedly hoping to get a job offer at either Pfizer or Moderna as soon as they quit the public sector – authorized new COVID-19 vaccines to try to counter the poor effectiveness the current slate provide.

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) cleared shots from Moderna and Pfizer that will be available to Americans as young as 6 months of age later this month. It’s a different question if anyone will take said shots following the recent newsflow suggesting that the side effects of the covid shots are far more dangerous than the so-called “vaccine” which doesn’t actually prevent infection.

“Vaccination remains critical to public health and continued protection against serious consequences of COVID-19, including hospitalization and death,” Dr. Peter Marks, a top FDA official, said in a statement. 

“We very much encourage those who are eligible to consider getting vaccinated.”

The FDA approved the Moderna and Pfizer vaccines for people aged 12 and older. Regulators granted emergency authorization for the shots for people aged 6 months to 11 years of age. There was no mention of Novavax, whose vaccine is also available in the United States.

The shots target XBB.1.5, a subvariant of the Omicron virus variant. That subvariant has already largely been displaced by newer strains, including EG.5, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).

The authorizations came despite a lack of data from clinical trials.

As Epoch Times reports, Moderna says its new shot in a trial induced immune responses against EG.5 and other newer variants. Pfizer says preclinical data has shown antibodies generated by its new vaccine “effectively neutralize” EG.5, also known as Eris.

The new shots were authorized based on studies on neutralizing antibody levels that appeared to show “a similar magnitude to the extent of neutralization observed with prior versions of the vaccines against corresponding prior variants against which they had been developed to provide protection,” the FDA said. “This suggests that the vaccines are a good match for protecting against the currently circulating COVID-19 variants.”

The CDC plans to meet with its advisers on Tuesday to consider to which populations it should recommend receive the new vaccines. If the panel recommends a vaccine, the federal government must pay for it.

Many countries have suggested younger, healthy people not to receive COVID-19 vaccinations as the disease has died down.

The United Kingdom, for instance, in August, said that vaccination this fall was only recommended for select groups, including people designated as at-risk.

The CDC scaled back its recommendations earlier this year for some populations.

CDC Director Dr. Mandy Cohen said earlier this year that the CDC was poised to recommend annual COVID-19 shots.

Pfizer and Moderna have said the new shots will cost approximately $110 to $130.

Number of Shots

The new shots are cleared for varying numbers of shots, depending on age group and prior vaccination. People aged 5 years and older, whether or not they’ve received a vaccine, are eligible to receive a single dose of one of the new shots.

Children aged 6 months through 4 years who have previously been vaccinated can receive one or two doses of one of the new vaccines.

Children in that age group who have not been vaccinated can receive three doses of the new Pfizer vaccine or two doses of the new Moderna vaccine.

Another Replacement

The FDA cleared, and the CDC recommended, updated shots in the fall of 2022 amid waning effectiveness. Those shots were bivalent, containing components of the Wuhan strain and Omicron.

Those shots have not performed well against infection or severe disease, according to observational data. They were authorized and recommended based on animal testing.

Just 17 percent of the U.S. population had received a bivalent dose as of May 10, the last date the CDC lists the data for. Some doctors have opted against receiving them.

The FDA said it expects to update the vaccines on an annual basis. That’s currently done for the influenza vaccines.

A survey of more than 2,000 adults in Arizona found that the primary reason for not receiving a bivalent was having protection from prior infection.

Other common reasons included wariness about side effects, belief the booster would not add protection, and belief the booster would not protect against infection.

Novavax had said its newer shot performed well against newer variants, but the FDA did not clear it. Novavax said in a statement that its updated vaccine is “under review” by the FDA, which did not respond to a request for comment.

Criticism

Some experts have criticized U.S. authorities for clearing the new shots without strong data.

“There’s essentially no data,” Florida Surgeon General Dr. Joseph Ladapo told a recent press conference.

“Not only that, but there are a lot of red flags.”

He pointed to studies finding effectiveness of the vaccines turn negative over time. Other papers have found the vaccines cause cardiac problems like heart inflammation, the doctor noted.

“It’s truly irresponsible for FDA, CDC, and others to be championing something … when we don’t know the implications of it,” he said.

Dr. Paul Offit, an FDA adviser, suggested to the Daily Mail that younger, healthy people who have already been vaccinated do not need one of the new doses.

“We are best served by targeting these booster doses to those who are most at risk of severe disease,” such as people over 75 years of age, Dr. Offit said.

“Boosting otherwise healthy young people is a low-risk, low-reward strategy,” he added.

Via SchiffGold.com,

Most people think everything is fine. The Fed is getting inflation under control and soon they’ll be able to cut interest rates, keeping the economy from falling into a deep recession. In his podcast, Peter Schiff poured cold water on this narrative. He explains why the Fed won’t be able to repeat the magic it pulled off after the financial crisis and COVID.

Oil prices continued to climb last week. Meanwhile, bond yields also continue to push higher.

As Peter pointed out, one of the big reasons CPI came down so quickly was falling energy prices.

People forget oil prices fell almost 50% from their peak, and that fall ended in May of this year. But that big decline in oil prices was a major factor in bringing headline inflation from 9% to 3%. And it’s not just the rate hikes that did it. I mean, they were partially responsible because the rate hikes pushed up the dollar and the dollar going up brings oil prices down.”

But Peter said there was another significant factor – President Biden selling oil from the strategic oil reserve. Today, reserves are at a 40-year low.

At this point, the US economy could only run for 20 days on the current oil reserves.

The point I’m making is there’s not much room now, given how low the reserves are. We can’t really keep selling. We can’t have no reserves. And we really can’t let them get any lower.”

Meanwhile, oil prices are now up 37% since the price bottomed out a few months ago.

All of that hasn’t even shown up yet. It’s just started. But we’re going to start to see that in the CPI numbers.”

And if the US tries to refill those reserves, it will put even more upward pressure on global oil prices. So, the bottom line is the US is no longer in a position where it can manipulate oil prices lower.

Remember, it was the money supply, the inflation, that was driving the prices higher because you have more money. But because we dumped all that oil out of the Strategic Oil Petroleum Reserve, we also had more supply. … That was unnatural. We can’t keep that up indefinitely because if we do, we’re going to run out of oil completely.”

The point is, they have already done that trick. They don’t have that rabbit to pull out of the hat anymore.

How is Biden going to keep the price of oil from going up? He’s not. So, inflation is going to continue to drive higher, and that basically destroys this whole disinflation narrative.”

And so does what’s happening in the bond market.

Interest rates are rising, and oil prices are rising. So, energy is a major cost input for the economy that needs to be passed on to consumers. But so is interest. Because there’s one thing that Americans have in abundance and that’s debt. And that’s businesses too. … Everybody partook in this debt orgy when the Fed had interest rates at zero … and now they have to pay the bill.”

As businesses refinance debt at much higher interest rates, that increases their costs. It’s really no different than rent or the cost of materials going up.

The customer has to pay for all the costs of the business so the business can survive. And of course, the business has to make a profit. It can’t just be break-even. … So, you have to charge your customer more money than it costs you to provide the services he’s buying or produce the goods that he’s buying. As it costs you more to produce those goods and services, you have to raise your prices.”

In a nutshell, energy prices have gone up and interest rates have gone up. All of this is going to bleed into higher consumer prices. The markets still don’t get this.

The markets are still not reacting to the reality of what’s going on because they don’t even understand what’s going on.”

Most people are still optimistic that the Fed is close to winning the inflation fight. That means the central bank will be able to cut interest rates soon.

Everybody is waiting for the Fed to cut rates because there is no way the economy can survive if the Fed doesn’t cut rates. I think a lot of people may understand that. They just assume that it’s not going to be an issue, because of course, the Fed is going to cut rates.”

The only way the US government, American consumers, and businesses can handle their debt loads is if interest rates drop.

Everybody expects that’s what’s going to happen because inflation is going to come down. But it’s all predicated on the false belief that inflation can come back down to 2%, which it can’t. And if you’re looking at what’s happening with interest rates and oil, that’s obvious.”

This doesn’t look like an economy in the midst of disinflation.

We didn’t even get to 2%. We came down to 3%, and then we turned around, and we’re heading back up. It’s like a plane. It tried to land, and then it missed the landing, and it had to pull up. And now the pilot’s going right back up. That’s where we’re going with the CPI. The markets are not expecting this.”

Looking at the deeper market psychology, most people think there is very little risk in the stock market. Sure, it might go down. But the Federal Reserve won’t let it stay down,

Investors know that even if they screw up and the market tanks, and if the economy goes into a recession, which could impact earnings, the Fed is going to come in and cut the rates back to zero and everything is going to go back up.”

In this environment, fundamentals go out the window. Investors are willing to overpay for a stock because it will likely keep going up. If it goes down, the central bank will print a bunch of money and slash interest rates so we can borrow money, buy more stock, and drive the price even higher.

If markets weren’t expecting the Fed to bail them out, investors would not pay such high prices for stocks. It would be too risky.”

Investors are about to find out that safety net isn’t there anymore because price inflation is no longer low.

The only way the Fed was able to bail the economy out of the 2008 financial crisis was by creating inflation. They were able to do that because price inflation – the way they measure inflation – stayed around 2%. Then they created more inflation to get the economy out of the COVID government shutdown mess. That was the final straw. Over the last two years, we’ve seen the impact of inflation — money creation — in rapidly rising prices.

When price inflation is the problem, inflation can’t be the solution. You can’t solve the inflation problem by creating inflation. That is the bind.”

People don’t understand that the low price inflation we lived through for more than a decade was the aberration.

The problem is when the next disaster happens, the Fed can’t save us with more inflation. I mean, they can try. It won’t work. They may not try. Maybe they’ll realize it doesn’t work. But they’re not going to be able to get rates back to zero. They’re not going to be able to launch another round of QE.”

If the Fed does try to do what it’s done in the past — it will blow up the dollar.

There is no doubt in my mind that when this next crisis hits the banking system or the economy or the markets, it will be with inflation going up. So, the Fed is going to have to create more inflation when high inflation is the problem. And that makes it an even bigger problem. And then when the bottom drops out of the dollar, and then prices really take off, then everything the Fed is doing is backfiring.”

In other words, the Fed doesn’t have any more rabbits to pull out of its hat.

After four months of declines in the 1-Year inflation expectation as reported by the NY Fed’s consumer survey, August saw a reversal in this series which traditionally is also a proxy for the price of oil (which just hit a 2023 high this morning), however this was offset by a small decline in 3 year inflation expectations. However, the most concerning observations was that the inflation outlook at the 5-year point hit the highest since march 2022 while households turned even less optimistic about their financial situation.

Here are the details: as shown in the chart below, while inflation expectations at the one-year horizon were slightly higher at 3.63% in Aug. from the previous month’s 3.55%, three-year-ahead inflation expectations, conversely, fell to 2.79% from 2.91%. Finally, 5-year-ahead inflation expectations rose from 2.90% to 3.00%, the highest since March 2022.

The report also noted that median inflation uncertainty (the uncertainty expressed regarding future inflation outcomes) was unchanged at the one-year-ahead horizon and decreased at the three- and five-year-ahead horizons.

Turning to median home price growth expectations, the survey found that these increased by 0.3% point to 3.1%, its highest reading since July 2022… which of course is just the opposite of what the Fed wants to achieve, and suggests that the Fed’s tightening plans have failed miserably at slowing the growth in what is arguably the most important asset class for the US middle class. The increase was most pronounced for respondents under the age of 60 and those with a high school education or less.

Next, turning to year-ahead commodity price expectations, these rose across the board in August, increasing by 0.4% for gas (to 4.9%), 0.1% for food (to 5.3%), 0.8% for the cost of medical care (to 9.2%), and 0.2% for the cost of college education (to 8.2%) and rent (to 9.2%).

But while the latest reversal in the downward trend of inflation is troubling, what is even more concerning was the report’s finding that the median expected growth in household income fell to 2.94% (the decline was largest for respondents with a high-school education or less) to the lowest since July 2021…

… prompting the report authors to write that “perceptions about current credit conditions and expectations about future conditions both deteriorated.”  Digging into the details of the household finance survey reveals substantial deterioration across all indicators, and especially when it comes to applying – or receiving – new credit:

• Median household spending growth expectations fell by 0.1 percentage point to 5.3%.
• Perceptions of credit access compared to a year ago deteriorated in August, with the share of households reporting it is harder to obtain credit than one year ago hitting a new series high. Expectations for future credit availability also deteriorated in August, with the share of respondents expecting it will be harder to obtain credit in the year ahead increasing.
  • The application rate for any kind of credit over the past twelve months declined to 40.3 percent from 40.9 percent in February, its lowest reading since October 2020. Application rates declined to 11.9 percent for auto loans and 12.5 percent for credit card limit requests, but increased to 24.8 percent for credit cards, 6.5 percent for mortgages, and 5.3 percent for mortgage refinances.
  • The overall rejection rate for credit applicants increased to 21.8 percent, the highest level since June 2018. The increase was broad-based across age groups and highest among those with credit scores below 680.
  • The rejection rate for auto loans increased to 14.2 percent from 9.1 percent in February, a new series high. It increased for credit cards, credit card limit increase requests, mortgages, and mortgage refinance applications to 21.5 percent, 30.7 percent, 13.2 percent, and 20.8 percent, respectively.
  • The proportion of respondents reporting that they are likely to apply for one or more types of credit over the next twelve months rose to 26.4 percent from 26.1 percent in February.
  • The average reported probability that a loan application will be rejected increased sharply for all loan types. It rose to 30.7 percent for auto loans, 32.8 percent for credit cards, 42.4 percent for credit limit increase requests, 46.1 percent for mortgages, and 29.6 percent for mortgage refinance applications. The readings for auto loans, mortgages, and credit card limit increase requests are all new series highs.
• The average perceived probability of missing a minimum debt payment over the next three months fell by 0.6 percentage point to 11.1%.
• The median expectation regarding a year-ahead change in taxes (at current income level) declined by 0.2 percentage point to 4.1%.
• Laughably, the median year-ahead expected growth in government debt declined to 8.9%, its lowest reading since February 2020: just the opposite will happen.
• The mean perceived probability that the average interest rate on saving accounts will be higher in 12 months decreased by 0.8 percentage point to 30.1%.
• Perceptions about households’ current financial situations compared to a year ago deteriorated slightly in August, with the share of households reporting a worse situation compared to a year ago rising. Similarly, year-ahead expectations about households’ financial situations deteriorated in August with the share of households expecting a worse financial situation in one year from now rising.
• The mean perceived probability that U.S. stock prices will be higher 12 months from now decreased by 1.9 percentage points to 35.2%.

Finally, looking at the state of the labor market, we finds that…

• Median one-year-ahead expected earnings growth rose by 0.1 percentage point to 2.9% in August. The series has been moving within a narrow range of 2.8% to 3.0% since September 2021.
• Mean unemployment expectations—or the mean probability that the U.S. unemployment rate will be higher one year from now—increased by 1.8 percentage points to 38.5%, remaining below its 12-month trailing average of 40.2%.
• The mean perceived probability of losing one’s job in the next 12 months rose by 2.0 percentage points to 13.8%, its highest reading since April 2021. The mean probability of leaving one’s job voluntarily in the next 12 months also increased by 1.9 percentage points to 18.9%. Both increases were most pronounced for respondents with a high school education or less and annual household income below $50k.
• The mean perceived probability of finding a job (if one’s current job was lost) decreased by 0.1 percentage point to 55.7%.

Putting it all together, inflation expectations (especially longer-term) are once again rising and hit the highest in 15 months, while household perceptions about their current financial situations and expectations for the future deteriorated sharply.

More in the full report here.

Authored by Simon White, Bloomberg macro strategist,

The divergence between the yuan’s weakness versus the dollar and its strength against most other currencies is driven principally by the primary trend in the greenback. 

This curtails the effectiveness of China’s efforts to limit further downside in its currency against the dollar.

China today announced further measures to rein in dollar strength versus its currency, by attempting to curb speculation and one-way bets on the yuan.

This follows the US currency hitting an all-time high against the Chinese unit.

Despite this weakness, the yuan has continued to strengthen against the yen. Japan’s currency has faced ongoing pressure as the BOJ maintains one of the loosest monetary policies in the world.

The yen bounced today on the back of speculation Japan may soon lift its short-term rate out of sub-zero territory.

The bigger picture, though, when it comes to the yuan, is the dollar. In recent years, dollar strength has coincided with yuan weakness against the US currency, but strength against the FX basket.

When the dollar is in an uptrend, the yuan weakens more against it than it does against other currencies, meaning the yuan rallies against those other currencies (or sells off less than them). This can be seen in the chart below.

The dollar has risen in recent months, but is short-term overbought, and its primary trend remains down. Medium-term leading indicators (the real yield curve, long-run short-term rate expectations), as well as structural ones (the Treasury put, and a historically large Fed balance sheet) anticipate the downward trend in the dollar that began last October will re-assert itself.

That will at the margin support liquidity in China. Money and credit data released today (M1 and M2 growth fell slightly from last month) shows China’s economy is still struggling to get a foothold, but a more stable currency against the dollar will limit capital outflow pressures, which will ease the fall in domestic liquidity (and in turn support global liquidity).

The dollar’s star may have peaked, but it has a long way to go before it is not consequential for global markets and economies.

The pro-union Biden administration has been very confident United Auto Workers won’t strike against Detroit’s “Big Three” automakers – General Motors, Ford, and Stellantis, the producer of Chrysler – and a deal will be struck before Thursday. Even though Bank of America Securities warned clients, a “strike is almost guaranteed.” 

Earlier this month, Biden was vacationing at his beach house in liberal white-elitest Rehoboth Beach when he said, “I’m not worried about a strike. I don’t think it’s going to happen.” 

As the Thursday deadline looms, one which UAW’s current contract with the automakers expires, Deputy Treasury Secretary Wally Adeyemo reaffirmed Biden’s stance that there will be no strike. 

Adeyemo told CNBC this morning that UAW leaders and automakers are well-positioned to hammer out a new four-year labor agreement for approximately 146,000 workers before the deadline. 

He said both sides want to reach a new labor contract because it’s in their best economic interests, adding, “They’re well positioned to cut this deal, that’s what we expect them to do.” 

However, John Murphy, a senior auto analyst at Bank of America Securities, warned clients last week that a strike was “almost guaranteed.” 

Murphy expects negotiations will result in a 25-30% increase in labor costs over the next four years with “sizable cash signing bonuses and adjustments to other benefits” once contracts are finalized. 

He said the word on the street is “UAW may offer a counter-proposal to the OEM offers shortly” but warned, “We continue to believe a strike is very likely after the Master Agreement expires next Thursday, September 14.” 

Bloomberg cited new data from economic consultancy Anderson Economic Group that showed just ten days of strikes at General Motors, Ford, and Stellantis factories could reduce US gross domestic product by $5.6 billion and quickly spiral Michigan’s economy into a recession. 

“If we were to have a long strike in 2023, the state of Michigan and parts of the Midwest would go into a recession,” said Patrick Anderson, chief executive officer of Anderson Economic.

Anderson said, “When GM workers went on strike in 2019, you saw gross state product drop in Michigan in the fourth quarter, while in the rest of the country it was largely unaffected. That won’t be the case this time if the UAW goes through on its threat to strike all three companies.”

Here’s Anderson Economic’s economic loss forecast for a ten-day strike:

Any such labor action could be bad news for car buyers as it would cause some models to soar in price due to scarcity issues. However, the walkout could send key commodity prices lower, especially hot-rolled steel. 

Charlie Chesbrough, senior economist at Cox Automotive, said major automakers have about 58 days’ worth of inventory. He said, “I don’t know that a couple of weeks would have a noticeable impact in the marketplace.” 

Chesbrough said it would be a different story if the strike “goes on for a couple of months,” indicating supply chain snarls as ones experienced during Covid could reemerge. 

What became evident last week is that the labor contract offers from all three automakers to UAW fell significantly short of the union leader’s demands. UAW President Shawn Fain described GM’s labor contract proposal as “insulting.”

The only issue with unions demanding higher wages, and some even succeeding, such as UPS Teamsters locking in a handsome contract for their delivery drivers, comes when the Federal Reserve is trying to cool inflation. And if unions get what they want, this will make the Fed’s job even harder. 

Authored by Prashant Jha via CoinTelegraph.com,

Former FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried’s bail was revoked on Aug. 11 after he was found to be trying to contact witnesses in the case and malign witness credibility…

Former FTX CEO Sam “SBF” Bankman Fried’s lawyers have requested a pre-trial release, citing a lack of adequate internet connectivity in the federal jail. SBF’s legal team argued that a poor internet connection is a hindrance in their defense preparation and leads to a loss of time.

The court filing dated Sept. 8 was the second such request for pre-trial release within the last week and came after the appellate judge denied SBF’s request for immediate release from jail on Sept. 6. The judge then referred the motion to the next three-judge panel.

SBF’s legal team argued that despite government assurance that their client would have access to a laptop on weekdays from 8 am until 7 pm, those promises haven’t materialized.

The lawyers also cited several instances where SBF’s access to an internet laptop was cut short due to jail proceedings.

The first instance was on Sept. 1, when Bankman-Fried was called back to his cell at 2:30 pm for a headcount, costing him four hours of preparation. In a second instance on Sept. 6, SBF wasn’t released from his cell until 11:00 am. When Bankman-Fried tried to access the discovery database, the poor internet connection allowed only one document from the database to be reviewed.

The legal team noted in its filing:

“Despite the Government’s efforts, there does not appear to be a way to solve the internet access problem in the cellblock. That means that Mr. Bankman-Fried has no way to review and search documents in the discovery database or the AWS database before the trial. The defendant cannot prepare for trial with these kinds of limitations.”

After his arrest in the Bahamas on Dec. 12 last year, SBF was released on a $250-million bond, following which he spent the majority of his time confined to his parents’ California home.

However, his bail was revoked on Aug. 11 after he was found to be trying to contact and intimidate former FTX executives and witnesses in the lawsuit.

Since then, Bankman-Fried’s legal team has filed multiple appeals to request a pre-trial release; however, the judges reviewing these motions have argued he has violated bail conditions on several occasions, and thus, an immediate release cannot be granted.