Authored by Stephen Moore via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

COVID mania just won’t go away. The deadly strains of the virus have been gone for two years now, and yet the recent outbreak of a mild flu-like variant is again stoking panic on the Left.

Nearly 100 universities are requiring masks this fall.

Lionsgate movie studios in Los Angeles and Atlanta-based Morris Brown College this week stated they are reinstating not just mask mandates but social distancing measures and contact tracing.

CNN, which led the panic in 2020 and 2021—causing manic school, restaurant, and business shutdowns and vaccine mandates—recently put out a headline on its website that encouraged its readers not to go outside without a mask on. Really? The latest evidence finds this is less dangerous than a normal flu virus and tracking data suggest that the wave has already peaked.

What’s even more disturbing here is that the leftist medical community and the media aren’t renouncing their calls for mitigation strategies that were catastrophically wrong in the panic era of 2020 and 2021—but instead calling for more of these assaults on freedom in the future.

It is one thing for well-meaning medical experts to have disagreed about how to best combat a once-in-a-half-century deadly virus. We didn’t know exactly what we were dealing with. But now we know with concrete scientific evidence that most mandates and lockdowns had a small impact on the spread of the virus and on fatalities. It turns out there was almost no difference in death rates in states with strict lockdowns and no lockdowns at all. The same is true of cross-country evidence.

Healthy children were never at risk from COVID (something we knew early on), so shutting down schools for one or two years was a sop to the teachers unions but a disaster for this generation of kids. Test scores are the worst in 30 years.

Before the pandemic, only 15 percent of public school students were chronically absent—more than 18 or more days a year.

Stanford University education professor Thomas Dee’s data shows an estimated 6.5 million additional students are now chronically absent. In Connecticut and Massachusetts, chronic absenteeism remains double its pre-pandemic rate.

But polls show that Democrats—even those that are highly educated—generally still support the lockdowns that were mandated. These are the same people who lecture about “following the science.” The most comprehensive study by experts at Johns Hopkins University found death rates from lockdowns were reduced by 0.1 percent. But how many people died from the isolation of lockdowns, delayed health screening from cancer, the increase in drug overdoses?

Biden’s vaccine mandates only made Americans more resistant to get pricked. They backfired.

Worst of all, Anthony Fauci, who remains a hero of the Left, recently not only refused to admit the errors of his advice but said the “lockdown was absolutely justified.”

Why does this bizarre rewrite of recent history matter? Because the fearmongering Left can’t wait to install new lockdowns every time we have a new flu virus and health scare. They’ve even started putting out feelers for occasional climate change economic shutdowns.

Those who love freedom must strenuously resist this coming tyranny.

In a shocking but not surprising twist, a new report reveals a Mexican cartel connection in America’s retail theft epidemic that cost companies like Walmart, Target, Kohl’s, Home Depot, and Foot Locker, among others, $100 billion last year. Amid the chatter on earnings calls, the number of times CEOs mentioned “shrink” – the loss of inventory due to circumstances such as retail theft – surged to a record high. Yet again, this is another consequence of failed open border policies pushed by radicals in the Biden administration that flooded the nation with millions of illegal aliens. 

We’ve all seen the videos posted on X, formerly known as Twitter, of masked criminals raiding retailers. Now, the Washington Examiner explains some of those thieves are tied to Mexican cartels:

Mexican cartels are behind the spike in organized retail crime and are deeply entrenched in every level of the process, according to the federal government’s chief investigative agency.

Retailers nationwide sustained nearly $100 billion worth of losses in 2021, the highest year on record, according to the National Retail Federation report published in September 2022. The growing number of cartel-run theft rings around the country drove that figure up from $70 billion in 2019.

“Organized retail crime exploded over the last few years as criminals exploited the anonymity of third-party online marketplaces to fence billions in stolen products,” RILA Senior Executive Vice President of Public Affairs Michael Hanson said in a statement.

Cartels appear to have big presence in Democrat-controlled cities. 

One reason for the explosion is those criminal gang units are emboldened by failed social justice reform pushed by radical leftists in crime-ridden metro areas, such as ones in San Francisco, where shoplifting merchandise valued under $950 is now only a misdemeanor. Cartels recognized this opportunity: 

These retail crimes are perpetrated by people who work as part of a crime ring run by cartels. In recent years, cartels have gone from illicit drug manufacturing and smuggling, human smuggling and trafficking, and illegal firearm smuggling to commandeering crime in the retail environment.

Cartels are involved in every level of retail crime, from in-store theft and listing items in online marketplaces to shipping stolen merchandise worldwide and using US financial institutions to hold their profits. –Washington Examiner 

Texas alleges that Biden’s open borders have flooded the nation with 6 million- more than the total population of Denmark or Finland or Norway Or New Zeland or Costa Rica- since he first took office in early 2021.

Still to this day, the Biden administration, with no regard for the safety of its own taxpayers, continues to flood the nation with illegals ahead of the 2024 presidential election cycle. The latest stunt was welding border gates wide open. 

Authored by Caden Pearson via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Former President Donald Trump on Tuesday praised GOP candidate Vivek Ramaswamy when asked if he would consider the 38-year-old biotech engineer as a running mate.

“I think he’s great,” President Trump told conservative talk show host Glenn Beck. “Look, anybody that’s said I’m the best president in  a generation … and he said it a couple of times … I have to like a guy like that.“

During the interview, President Trump openly discussed his thoughts on the presidential candidacy of Mr. Ramaswamy, indicating his receptiveness to a youthful and comparatively unestablished candidate who could bring a fresh perspective to Washington.

President Trump, considered the frontrunner for the GOP nomination, described Mr. Ramaswamy as “smart,” “young,” and “got a lot of talent.”

When asked about the possibility of a “Vice President Ramaswamy,” President Trump responded affirmatively, saying, “He’s a very, very, very intelligent person. He’s got good energy, and he could be some form of something. I tell you, I think he’d be very good. I think he’s very good. I think he’s really distinguished himself.”

The timing of President Trump’s remarks is noteworthy, as they come shortly after the first GOP debate, where he opted not to participate but pledged to observe for potential vice presidential contenders.

The former president’s interest in Mr. Ramaswamy adds a layer of intrigue to the unfolding political landscape, especially given Mr. Ramaswamy’s rapid rise from an unknown long-shot candidate with a mere 1 percent polling support to a serious contender who has been attracting attention from prominent GOP figures.

While President Trump has signaled his appreciation for Mr. Ramaswamy’s potential as a running mate, he also voiced some caution regarding the entrepreneur’s tendency to court controversy. In the same interview, President Trump expressed advice for Mr. Ramaswamy to exercise discretion.

“He’s starting to get out there a little bit. He’s getting a little bit controversial. I got to tell him to be a little bit careful. Some things you have to hold in just a little bit, right?” President Trump said. “But he’s got a lot of good energy.”

Despite President Trump’s praise, Mr. Ramaswamy has previously told NewsNation that he would not accept being the former president’s vice president.

“I don’t do well in a No. 2, so I’d be about as likely to accept it as he would be to accept my offer to be my vice president,” Mr. Ramaswamy said earlier this month. “It’s a ‘no.’”

Other GOP contenders have criticized Mr. Ramaswamy, including former Vice President Mike Pence, former U.N. ambassador Nikki Haley, and former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie.

Ms. Haley sparred with him during the GOP primary debate, challenging his foreign policy experience. Former Vice President Mike Pence has criticized Mr. Ramaswamy’s age and foreign policy stances.

“I think there’s a great deal of alignment between my former running mate and Vivek and so for my part, I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised that he’s been complimentary of him in that way,” Mr. Pence said on Tuesday.

Meanwhile, Mr. Christie has described Mr. Ramaswamy as the “worst of what politicians are characterized to be.” Mr. Christie took aim at Mr. Ramaswamy for saying “one thing” but doing another.

“And then when you call them, like I did, on the negative things he said about Donald Trump on Jan. 6, in his book, he didn’t say it,” Mr. Christie told CBS’s “Face the Nation.”

“If you believe Donald Trump was the greatest president of the 21th century, which is what Vivek said on the stage, then what the hell are you doing running against him?” he added. “The fact is that Vivek says one thing, does another.”

Authored by Michael Maharrey via SchiffGold.com,

Gold is nature’s money.

Aristotle listed four characteristics of sound money: it must be durable, portable, divisible, and have intrinsic value. Gold possesses all of these characteristics, which is why gold has served as money for thousands of years.

As Goldmoney founder James Turk put it in an article published by the Mises Wire:

Every natural element with which the earth has been endowed has a usefulness—a purpose. If we listen to gold, its message is loud and clear—gold is money. To serve as natural money is gold’s highest purpose.”

Modern financial systems spurn gold. Governments need central banks to create money (inflation) and manipulate interest rates (the cost of money) to prop up their borrowing and spending. The kind of spending and accompanying budget deficits we see in the US wouldn’t be possible if the Federal Reserve was not keeping interest rates lower than they otherwise would and monetizing the debt through QE.

But even as governments devalue their fiat currencies, gold maintains its purchasing power over time. Consider this: an ounce of gold buys the same amount of oil as it did 70 years ago.

As Turk put it, “Gold preserves purchasing power, which is one of the key requisites of money. As illustrated by the above chart, it is an outcome that no national currency can match.”

Sound money also enables sound economic calculation. As Turk explains, this is only possible “using a consistent, unchanging unit of account to measure prices over time.”

Gold serves this role perfectly because it is the only element in the known universe that is eternal and not subject to decay or degradation. A gram of gold today is identical to a gram of gold mined by the Romans.”

One important characteristic of sound money is that its stock remains relatively constant. Somewhat surprisingly, Turk asserts, “Gold is not valuable because it is rare.”

Plenty of gold exists that has yet to be mined on land, under the oceans, and even extracted from ocean water when the technologies become available to make that mining possible. Gold is valuable because it is useful but mined—produced—only when it is profitable to do so, which depends on how gold has been dispersed in the earth’s crust when combined with humanity’s ability, financial capacity, and available technology needed to discover, mine, and refine it.”

The amount of mined gold has grown over the years, but it has expanded at a relatively consistent rate. According to Turk, the average annual rate over the last 529 years is 1.2%. Since 1960 the average growth in the gold stock is 1.8%, ranging from 1.4% to 2.2%.

Compare that to the stock of dollars. Since 1960, money supply growth varied from a low of 1% in 1993 to a high of 19.1% in 2020. As a result, “this inconsistency results in swings in the dollar stock that in turn causes volatility in prices expressed in dollars because there are not enough or too many dollars circulating relative to the prevailing level of economic activity.”

Economist Milton Friedman developed the k-percent rule. In a nutshell, he postulated that the quantity of currency should increase by a constant percentage rate every year, irrespective of bank credit cycles. As Turk explains, gold comes closer than any central bank-managed currency to fulfilling this rule.

The gold stock grows at approximately the same rate as world population and new wealth creation. Consequently, the purchasing power arising from the interaction of gold’s supply—its aboveground stock—and the unfailing inelastic demand for gold that exists because it is money, make gold uniquely useful to accurately calculate the price of goods and services throughout time. It is a feature that the dollar and other national currencies fail to match because their annual growth rates are not consistent, causing fluctuations in their “aboveground” stock. Since 1950 the weight of the gold stock has grown 3.5 times, but a gram of gold still purchases the same amount of crude oil.”

Significantly, gold doesn’t require “management” by central bankers. Experience teaches us that currency management always creates artificial booms rife with malinvestments and misallocations. This inevitably leads to busts.

Recurring bank and currency crises throughout history result from human error and other human frailties that inevitably destroy fiat currency, like the unwillingness to “take away the punchbowl” after a period of prolonged credit expansion. Gold is different. Gold does not need management by a central bank or government. Gold is money that manages itself because growth in the gold stock is controlled by two immutable forces—nature and profitable mining. Together they impose discipline on the production of gold that prevents the money punchbowl from overflowing, which is a key factor explaining why gold preserves purchasing power over time.”

Turk goes on to assert that “the timeless reliability in the interconnection of gold’s supply and demand sets gold apart from national currencies as does its essential nature.”

Gold is tangible; national currencies are intangible financial promises with counterparty risk. This risk arises because promises do get broken, as was demonstrated in the 2008 financial crisis and countless other banking and fiat currency crises. Gold is natural money that has served humanity well throughout history by enabling people to achieve an ever-higher standard of living. We can ponder whether this outcome results from fortuitous chance or from the intelligent design of a creator endowing the earth’s resources providentially to equip humanity with natural money. Regardless of gold’s origin, which is unknowable, it cannot be denied that gold is money and is as useful today as at any time in history.”

After last week’s brief (and small) dip, US money-market funds saw inflows once again last week, adding $14.4BN to reach a new record high of $5.5TN…

Source: Bloomberg

Retail funds saw inflows for the 19th straight month (+3.5BN) and Institutional funds returned to inflows (+10.9BN) after a $10.1BN outflow last week…

Source: Bloomberg

Although bank deposits did see significant outflows last week, the decoupling between money-market fund inflows and bank deposits continues…

Source: Bloomberg

The Fed’s balance sheet shrank by $17.75BN last week to its lowest sicne July 2021…

Source: Bloomberg

The Fed’s QT continues with $13.9BN of securities sold last week to its lowest level since June 2021…

Source: Bloomberg

Usage of The Fed’s emergency funding facility for banks reached a new record high of $108BN (up $144MN last week)…

Source: Bloomberg

Breaking down the details of the H/4/1…

• MBS down $24BN as a result of QT

• Discount window usage up $700MM to $2.9BN

• BTFP up $150MM to $107.5BN, new record high

• Other credit extensions (FDIC loans) down $2.8BN to $134.4BN

Finally, while US equity markets were lower in August, they remain notably divergent from their historical relationship with bank reserves at The Fed…

Source: Bloomberg

We leave you with one thought – in 6 months and counting, America’s ‘smaller’ banks will need to find that $100-billion plus from somewhere as that is when the BTFP bailout program ends (theoretically). Will regional bank balance sheets be stabilized by then? They better hope for a serious recession to smash yields back down (and TSY prices up).

Authored by Victor Davis Hanson via American Greatness,

Joe Biden lied repeatedly when he claimed he knew nothing of his son Hunter’s influence-peddling businesses.

The President further prevaricated that he had no involvement in Hunter’s various shake down schemes.

Yet, the media continued to misinform by serially ignoring these facts.

Had journalists just been honest and independent, then candidate Joe Biden might have lost a presidential debate and even the 2020 election. The public would have learned that Hunter’s business associates and his laptop proved Joe was deeply involved in his son’s illicit businesses.

Later, as the evidence from IRS whistleblowers mounted, the White House stonewalled subpoenaed efforts and sought to craft an outrageous plea deal reduction in Hunter’s legal exposure.

Reporters ignored the Ukrainians who claimed Joe Biden himself talked to them about quid pro quo arrangements.

They again discounted Hunter’s laptop that explicitly demonstrated that Hunter was whining that he had handed over large percentages of his income to his father Joe—variously referred to as the Big Guy and a “ten percent” recipient on many deals.

They played dumb about Joe Biden’s use of pseudonyms and alias email accounts to hide thousands of his communications to Hunter and associates.

They attacked the former Ukrainian prosecutor Viktor Shokin, who now claims Biden was likely bribed by Ukrainians.

Yet the media can no longer hide the reality that the President of the United States likely took bribes to influence or alter U.S. policy to suit his payers. Those two crimes—bribery and treason—are specifically delineated in the Constitution as impeachable offenses.

In denial, the media has instead pivoted with hysterical glee over various weaponized prosecutions of Donald Trump.

But now, to use a progressive catchphrase, the proverbial “walls are closing in” on Joe Biden.

So will we at last expect the media finally to confront the truth?

Answer—only if Joe Biden’s cognitive and physical health continues to deteriorate geometrically to the point that he can no longer finish his term or run for reelection—and thus becomes expendable.

Such a cynical view of the media is justified given their record of both incompetence and unapologetic deceit.

From 2015 to 2019, we were suffocated 24/7 with lies like “Russian collusion,” “Putin’s puppet,” “election rigging” and the “Steele dossier.”

When all such “evidence” was proven to be a complete fraud cooked up through Hillary Clinton’s stealthy hiring of and collusion with a discredited ex-British spy, a Russian fabulist at the Brookings Institution and a Clinton toady in Moscow, did the media apologize for their untruth?

Was there any media confessional that perhaps Robert Mueller and his leftwing legal team (the giddy media-dubbed “all-stars,”  “dream team,” and “hunter killers”) proved a colossal waste of time?

Not at all.

Instead, the media went next right on to “the phone call” and “impeachment.”

The country then wasted another year.

The same biased reporters now claimed that the heroic Andrew Vindman had caught Donald Trump fabricating lies about the Bidens—given Joe Biden was a possible 2020 opponent—to force Ukraine to investigate them or lose American foreign aid.

On that accusation Trump was impeached.

Then the truth emerged that unlike Joe Biden, Trump never threatened to cancel aid, but merely to delay it.

Trump was right that the Bidens were knee deep in Ukrainian bribes and influence peddling.

And that the whistleblower had no first-hand knowledge of the Trump call but was spoon fed a script cooked up by the gadfly Vindman and Rep. Adam Schiff.

The result was journalistic glee that we impeached a president for crimes that he did not commit but exempted another president, Joe Biden, who had actually committed them.

Then came the next hoax of the Russian fabricated facsimile of Hunter’s laptop.

The 2020 Biden campaign along with an ex-CIA head rounded up “51 intelligence authorities” to mislead the country into believing that Russian gremlins in the Kremlin had fabricated a fake laptop.

Ponder that absurd fantasy: Moscow supposedly had created fake nude pictures, fake photos of Hunter’s drug use, and fake email and text messages from Hunter to the other Bidens.

The media preposterously convinced the country that the Russians and by extension Donald Trump had once again sandbagged the Biden campaign.

No apologies followed when the FBI later admitted it had kept the laptop under wraps for more than a year, knew it was authentic, and yet said nothing as the media and former spooks misled the country and warped an election.

Now we are enmeshed in at least four court trials on cooked-up charges that could as easily apply to a host of Democrats as to Trump.

For the last eight years, a discredited media has never expressed remorse for any of the damage they did to the country. And they will not again, when their latest mythological indictments are eventually exposed.

August saw the landing narrative shift from ‘soft’ to ‘more aggressive’ as macro data serially disappointed as the month wore on – to make the biggest monthly decline since May 2022…

Source: Bloomberg

Of course tomorrow’s payrolls print is all that matters now (until next week’s CPI), but this week saw the ‘core services’ inflation print at the second highest since 1985, while durable goods prices dropped most since 2017 MoM. GDP growth was revised lower (and is negative based on GDI). The labor market is clueless as JOLTS, ADP, Challenger-Gray, and Continuing Claims all worsened significantly while initial jobless claims fell to 2023 lows.

The last two months have seen ‘soft’ survey data improving while ‘hard’ data has disappointed…

Source: Bloomberg

Slowing growth and persistent inflation used to be the makings of a ‘stagflation’ scare and a reason to de-risk portfolios.

Source: Bloomberg

Nevertheless, despite the very recent dovish decline, rate-change expectations rose (hawkishly) on the month…

Source: Bloomberg

But the market is still pricing in 110bps of rate-cuts by the end of next year…

Source: Bloomberg

The slight hawkish bias sent the dollar higher – biggest monthly jump since Feb – but it has broadly speaking gone nowhere for the last two weeks…

Source: Bloomberg

And despite the rebound of the last few days, left stocks lower on the month (with Nasdaq suffering its worst monthly return since Dec 2022). Small Caps were the worst on the month…

Source: Bloomberg

The Energy sector was the only one to close green in August with Utilities weakest…

Source: Bloomberg

At one point in August, the S&P 500 was down almost 5% for the month as yields on 10-year US Treasuries hit 4.34% – their highest level since BEFORE the Great Financial Crisis – an event that ushered in a decade of ultra-low inflation and rates.

Spot the difference…

Source: Bloomberg

Most of the Treasury market was lower in price (higher in yield) on the month but, the short-end of the yield curve outperformed in August (2Y -2bps, 30Y +19bps)…

Source: Bloomberg

Commodities were broadly lower on the month with copper ugly, PMs weak, but energy was higher (with Nattie best and WTI managing to get green

Source: Bloomberg

It was an ugly month for cryptos with Bitcoin and Ethereum both down over 10% with an ugly day to close it out…

Source: Bloomberg

Today saw a wave of selling in Bitcoin, erasing the GBTC-SEC win spike, back down to $26k…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, stocks remain decoupled from bank reserves at The Fed…

Source: Bloomberg

Maybe the consumer finally tapping out will bring the two back together again in September.

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

The Philadelphia Fed GDPplus measure, a blend of GDP and GDI, is flashing a signal that recession has already started…

Data from Philadelphia Fed, chart by Mish

GDPplus is a measure of the quarter-over-quarter rate of growth of real output in continuously compounded annualized percentage points.

It’s a blend, but not an average, of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Gross Domestic Income (GDI). It is much smoother than either GDP or GDI as the above chart show.

Improving GDP Measurement: A Measurement-Error Perspective

Please consider a 2013 working paper on GDPplus, Improving GDP Measurement: A Measurement-Error Perspective

Aggregate real output is surely the most fundamental and important concept in macroeconomic theory. Surprisingly, however, significant uncertainty still surrounds its measurement. In the U.S., in particular, two often-divergent GDP estimates exist, a widely-used expenditure-side version, GDPE [widely called GDP], and a much less widely-used income-side version, GDPI [GDI].

Nalewaik (2010) and Fixler and Nalewaik (2009) make clear that, at the very least, GDPI deserves serious attention and may even have properties in certain respects superior to those of GDPE. That is, if forced to choose between GDPE and GDPI , a surprisingly strong case exists for GDPI. But of course one is not forced to choose between GDPE and GDPI, and a GDP estimate based on both GDPE and GDPI may be superior to either one alone.

The rest of the paper is for Geeks only. The important points are as follows.

A strong case can be made for accepting GDI as a better measure of GDP than GDPE but a blend, not an average, would be even better.

I put that theory to test by looking at every recession since 1960, 9 cases in all.

GDPplus vs Recessions Since 1960

Data from Philadelphia Fed, chart by Mish

In 100 percent of the cases, with no false signals, no misses, and no lead times more than two quarters, every time GDPplus had two consecutive quarters of negative growth, the economy was in recession.

GDPplus Recession Signals

Mish compilation of recession lead times based on DGPplus data

GDPplus Recession Signals Synopsis

• GDPplus signaled every recession

• GDPplus was on time 4 times, early by a quarter 3 times, and early by 2 quarters twice.

This makes it appear as if GDPplus is a leading indicator. It isn’t because the data is heavily revised.

The BEA makes revisions frequently, especially on GDI. And since GDPplus is more reliant on GDI, it also has significant swings.

Also, the BEA does not release GDI in the first estimate of GDP, but somehow the Philadelphia Fed projects GDPplus anyway.

Recent Revisions

Yesterday, the GDPplus numbers for the past three quarters starting with 2022 Q4 were, in order, -1.1 percent, -0.4 percent, +1.5 percent.

Today, those quarters are -1.2 percent, -0.7 percent, and +0.6 percent.

Over time, the strength of revisions decreases greatly.

Thus, the first two numbers are increasingly likely to stay negative now given the decline from -0.4 percent to -0.7 percent for 2023 Q1.

Negative Revision to 2nd Quarter GDP, Huge Discrepancy with GDI Continues

Earlier today I commented Negative Revision to 2nd Quarter GDP, Huge Discrepancy with GDI Continues

GDI is still consistent with a recession starting 2022 Q4. GDP isn’t. The NBER, the official arbiter of recessions, averages the two measures. The result is inconclusive for Q4 and Q1 combined.

Don’t be surprised if the NBER declares we had a recession and it is already over. It’s happened before.

Last Three Quarters Comparison

• GDP: +2.6 percent, +2.0 percent, +2.1 percent

• GDI: -3.3 percent, -2.8 percent, +0.5 percent

• Average of GDP and GDI: -0.4 percent, +0.1 percent, +1.3 percent

• GDPplus: -1.2 percent, -0.7 percent, and +0.6 percent.

The Averages of GDP and GDI are from the St Louis Fed.

Of those, I strongly suggest based on past performance GDPplus offers the best recession signal.

*  *  *

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WTI prices just closed at the second highest level of 2023, up 2.5% at $83.64…

… because, as John Kemp notes, among other things U.S. commercial crude oil inventories have depleted by 34 million barrels since the middle of July, contributing to a sense the market is tightening and driving a recovery in spot prices and calendar spreads.

Some more details:

Commercial crude inventories have declined in five of the most recent six weeks, according to surveys conducted by the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Commercial crude has accounted for all the drawdown in total inventories over the same period, which have fallen by just 19 million barrels since July 14, with products up by 12 million and strategic stocks up by 3 million.

As a result, commercial crude stocks were just +1 million barrels (+0.3% or +0.02 standard deviations) above the prior ten-year seasonal average on August 25.

The surplus had narrowed from a recent high of +22 million barrels (+5% or +0.37 standard deviations) on July 14.

The recent drawdown has reversed a previous accumulation that had seen the surplus swelling since the end of April.

In consequence, front-month U.S. crude futures prices have risen by almost $7 per barrel (9%) since July 14 and almost $15 (22%) from the recent low on June 27.

Anticipating, accelerating and amplifying the decline in stocks and rise in prices, hedge funds increased their position in U.S. crude futures and options to 134 million barrels on August 22, up from just 46 million on June 27.

CUSHING DRAINED

The drawdown in inventories has especially drained stocks from tank farms clustered around Cushing in Oklahoma, the delivery point for the NYMEX U.S. crude futures contract.

Cushing crude inventories have declined in five of the most recent six weeks by a total of 9 million barrels (-24%) since July 14. Cushing stocks were -12 million barrels (-29% or -0.81 standard deviations) below the prior 10-year average on August 25 having been less than -1 million barrels (-2% or -0.06 standard deviations) below on June 30.

Reflecting the lower level of stocks, the three-month calendar spread in U.S. crude futures tightened to a backwardation of $1.14 per barrel on August 25 up from a small contango in late June.

The drawdown in U.S. crude inventories has coincided with additional production cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia totalling around 75 million barrels during July and August.

Saudi Arabia has also been steering its crude exports away from North by raising official selling prices for buyers in the United States much higher than for refiners in Asia.

GLOBAL MARKET PROXY

U.S. crude and other petroleum inventories are the most visible part of the global oil market because they are reported weekly with a minimal delay compared with monthly reporting with much longer lags for other countries.

Traders and investors often treat changes in U.S. inventories as a proxy for changes in the production-consumption balance at global level.

Persistent inventory depletion in the United States is usually interpreted as a sign the global market is running a deficit, causing spot prices and spreads to rise.

For the same reason, any oil producer, trader or investor wanting to initiate a rapid increase in prices and spreads is likely to focus on reducing visible inventories in the United States rather than less visible stocks in Europe and Asia.

U.S. NET CRUDE IMPORTS

U.S. net crude oil imports remain subdued despite the depletion of inventories with exports continuing to run at a relatively fast rate while imports stay low.

Net crude imports averaged just 2.9 million barrels per day in August based on an average of the preliminary weekly data during the month.

Net imports had increased slightly from 2.7 million b/d in the same month in 2022 but were down from 3.2 million b/d in 2021 and 4.2 million b/d in 2019.

U.S. STRATEGIC RELEASES

The U.S. Department of Energy released almost 26 million barrels of crude from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) in the first six months of 2023 and had released total of 247 million barrels since the start of 2022.

Releases contributed to downward pressure on both spot prices and calendar spreads by increasing the amount of oil readily available to traders and refiners.

The Biden administration directed them to offset any shortage of oil and upward pressure on prices as a result of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the U.S. and EU sanctions imposed in response.

But the releases were essentially completed by the end of June and the department has since added almost 3 million barrels to the SPR, part of its plan to gradually refill the stockpile when prices are relatively low.

The shift from strategic inventory liquidation to accumulation has further tightened the availability of crude in the commercial market and added to upward pressure on prices and spreads.

Authored by Eric Lendrum via American Greatness,

New records released by the National Archives and Records Administration (NARA) reveal that Hunter Biden’s firm, Rosemont Seneca Partners, exchanged over 1,000 emails with the office of then-Vice President Joe Biden during the Obama Administration.

As the New York Post reports, the records were released by NARA on Wednesday after a request from the conservative legal advocacy group America First Legal (AFL). At least 861 emails were sent or received by the Office of the Vice President during the period of time between January of 2011 and December of 2013, and over 200 more emails remain hidden due to the Biden White House citing executive privilege.

“Release would disclose confidential advice between the President and his advisors, or between such advisors,” NARA claimed in its statement responding to AFL.

The emails that were released show that Rosemont Seneca was given direct lines of communication to Joe Biden’s office, and were often given crucial information regarding various White House social events in order to seek audiences with government officials. Among the information shared with Hunter’s business partners were White House guest lists, seating arrangements, and guest biographies for numerous official events, such as the 2012 United Kingdom State Dinner, the 2013 Turkey State Luncheon, and the 2014 France State Dinner.

In one such example, lobbyist Doug Davenport frantically begged for a last-minute ticket to the 2013 White House Christmas tour.

“Hey guys……I am in a bad spot. I have a guy from Apple who is dying to take his 4 colleagues on a REGULAR WH Tour…see the tree, etc…..this Friday,” Davenport’s email reads. “I know it is WAY short notice, but I would owe you my life if you could tell me any way possible to get my hands on some public tour tix for this Friday? Or am I just way out of line???”

Hunter’s business partner Eric Schwerin then forwards the email and asks a Rosemont Seneca employee to “check with our friends over there” and get Davenport and his colleagues to “the front of the line.”

This report comes after additional reporting confirmed that Joe Biden used at least three secret email addresses as vice president, using them to communicate with Hunter and his business partners to discuss Hunter’s foreign business dealings. Joe Biden has repeatedly, and sometimes aggressively, denied any involvement with or knowledge of his son’s overseas business deals, a claim which has been debunked with mounting evidence in recent months.

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More via America First Legal:

The latest documents reveal a staggering number of emails between Rosemont Seneca and the Office of the Vice President, revealing further evidence that there was no separation between Hunter’s private business dealings and the official business of the Obama-Biden White House. Rosemont Seneca frequently used the Biden name to gain access to and favors from the White House.

The documents also reveal further evidence of Hunter’s influence in the official Office of the Vice President. Hunter had the ability to direct correspondence, plan guest lists for State dinners and receptions, and bring people into the White House at his discretion. This evidence further calls into question Joe Biden’s claims that he was never involved with, never discussed, and did not know about Hunter’s business dealings, and it raises questions as to the propriety of the massive payments Hunter was receiving while he was commanding such influence in the Office of the Vice President. 

1. “Rosemont Seneca” was merely the private arm of Joe Biden’s Office of the Vice President: 

The sheer volume of emails exchanged between Hunter and his associates at Rosemont Seneca and the Office of the Vice President is telling in itself. Just since AFL’s last release, NARA has processed another 861 emails sent or received between January 2011 and December 2013 that contained the name of Hunter Biden’s company, “Rosemont Seneca.”

The vast majority of these emails consisted of direct communications between Rosemont Seneca employees, including Hunter Biden, and the Office of the Vice President. Contrary to Joe Biden’s claim that there is an “absolute wall between the personal and private, and the government,” the White House asserted executive privilege to withhold 200 emails in their entirety because “Release would disclose confidential advice between the President and his advisors, or between such advisors.”

2. Hunter Biden used his family name to leverage access to the White House:

Emails obtained by AFL reveal the broad access Hunter Biden enjoyed to the official government channels while his father was Vice President. Below are just a few examples of how Hunter Biden had free reign in directing the use of official government resources. 

Hunter Biden played a role in planning high-profile White House events

Even though Hunter had no official role in the Obama-Biden Administration, he was intimately involved in planning for high-profile White House events, including the January 2011 China State Luncheon, the June 2011 State Arrival Ceremony for German Chancellor, the March 2012 United Kingdom State Dinner and Visit, the May 2013 Turkey State Luncheon, and the 2014 France State Dinner.

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