Authored by Dan Alban and and Daryl James via RealClear Wire,

Police recruits join the force to help others and fight crime. Research confirms it. But priorities changed when sheriff’s deputies detained Eh Wah in Muskogee County, Oklahoma, and found more than $53,000 in his car.

Law enforcement training kicked in, and the purpose of the traffic stop switched from public safety to raising revenue. The deputies seized the cash and spent the next six hours interrogating Eh Wah, looking for any excuse to justify civil forfeiture, a process that allows the government to take and keep cash, cars and other assets without a criminal conviction.

Oklahoma agencies normally keep quiet about civil forfeiture, which is why the state ranks among the worst in the nation for civil forfeiture transparency. Oklahoma publishes no statewide reports, conducts no regular audits, and tracks only limited metrics.

The silence is strategic. The more people learn about civil forfeiture, the less they like it. But Oklahoma police and prosecutors have voiced opposition in recent weeks to H.R. 1525, the Fifth Amendment Integrity Restoration Act (FAIR), a bill that would reform federal civil forfeiture.

Oklahoma Bureau of Narcotics Deputy Director Brian Surber says the measure would take money from state and local agencies, making it harder to fight drug cartels and other criminal enterprises.

What happened to Eh Wah undercuts this narrative. He was not a drug lord or even a low-level dealer. He was a volunteer manager for a Christian rock band, raising money for Thai orphans and Burmese refugees. Some of the cash belonged to Eh Wah and the band members, following a monthslong tour across several states. The rest came from concert donations and belonged to the orphans and refugees.

Carrying cash is legal. The money in the car was legitimate. And none of it related to a broken taillight — the reason for the 2016 traffic stop on U.S. Route 69. Eh Wah, who neither smokes nor drinks, had nothing illegal in his vehicle. Other than driving with a burned out bulb, he did nothing wrong.

The deputies pounced anyway, putting civil forfeiture in motion.

To prevail, at least in theory, the government must link seized assets to criminal activity by a preponderance of the evidence, a low standard that means government hunches are more likely correct than not. But in the vast majority of cases, the government does not have to prove anything by any standard.

Property owners get trapped in procedural mazes and lose by default. Many people give up without ever seeing a judge. They often have no choice. Civil forfeiture includes no right to counsel, and attorney fees often outweigh the value of seized assets.

Once the process ends, participating agencies keep 100 percent of the proceeds for themselves. The result is a powerful incentive for police and prosecutors to self-fund through aggressive enforcement.

The FAIR Act would not affect Oklahoma law. But it would end “equitable sharing,” a maneuver that allows state and local agencies to transfer seized property to the federal government for civil forfeiture, and then take a cut of the proceeds when the process ends. Oklahoma agencies pocketed more than $2 million this way in 2020.

Oklahoma District 12 Attorney Matt Ballard wants to protect this revenue stream. What he fails to mention is that equitable sharing circumvents state law, which should not happen. Oklahoma agencies should follow Oklahoma law, which already makes civil forfeiture far too easy.

State and local agencies collected $6.2 million for themselves in 2020 under Oklahoma law — above and beyond equitable sharing — representing more than 75 percent of proceeds. Indeed, the civil forfeiture case against Eh Wah was brought under Oklahoma law, not through the feds.

Eh Wah fought back with free representation from our public interest law firm, the Institute for Justice, and recovered his cash. Now civil forfeiture apologists want to call his ordeal an “outlier.”

But they have no data to support that claim. And they miss an important point: Even if proceeds come entirely from criminals, which they do not, the process skews law enforcement priorities.

Agencies shift their focus from following criminals to following the money, which creates blind spots. At least one study shows that increased forfeiture revenue actually reduces crime closure rates.

Innocent property owners like Eh Wah suffer. But so do officers, who get stuck working as fundraisers rather than crimefighters. The FAIR Act would help refocus law enforcement on its true priority—protecting the public, not the bottom line.

Dan Alban is a senior attorney and co-director of the National Initiative to End Forfeiture Abuse at the Institute for Justice in Arlington, Va. Daryl James is an Institute for Justice writer.

By Charles Kennedy of Oilprice.com

Chevron has evacuated three oil and gas platforms in the Gulf of Mexico ahead of tropical storm Idalia which is strengthening to a hurricane and expected to make landfall in Florida on Wednesday.

The U.S. supermajor said on Tuesday that it had evacuated non-essential personnel from its Blind Faith and Petronius platforms, and all staff had been removed from its Genesis platform in the Gulf of Mexico.

Oil and gas production continued on Tuesday at Chevron’s operated platforms and other facilities in the Gulf of Mexico, a spokesperson told Reuters.   

In the 7 a.m. CDT Tuesday update on Hurricane Idalia, the National Hurricane Center said that Idalia is strengthening as it moves northward over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.

“There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge along portions of the Florida Gulf coast. Heavy rainfall has the potential to produce flash and urban flooding across portions of the west coast of Florida, the Florida Panhandle, and southern Georgia,” the National Hurricane Center said.

Idalia is expected to make landfall in Florida on Wednesday and create chaos and gasoline shortages just ahead of the Labor Day weekend, when more drivers are expected to hit the road, analysts say.

As of Tuesday morning, the percentage of gas stations in Florida without gasoline remains low but is constantly rising, GasBuddy’s head of petroleum analysis, Patrick De Haan, said.

Gasoline demand in Florida ahead of Idalia could lead to shortages but they will be temporary, AAA Auto Club spokesman Mark Jenkins told Florida’s WUSF Public Media.

“As long as the Tampa Port remains open then gasoline will continue sailing into the region. And deliveries will be made until the actual storm itself is passing through, and then that’s considered to be unsafe to transport fuel, and most people wouldn’t be on the road at that time anyway,” Jenkins said.

Moreover, Hurricane Idalia is not expected to impact refineries on the U.S. Gulf Coast supplying Florida as these are on the Texas, Louisiana, and Mississippi coasts, he added.

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Alabama could become the first state to execute a prisoner by forcing him to breathe in pure nitrogen, a novel method that has never been used.

Alabama Attorney General Steve Marshall’s office asked the Alabama Supreme Court in a court filing on Aug. 25 to schedule the execution of Kenneth Eugene Smith, who was convicted and sentenced to death for the murder-for-hire killing of a preacher’s wife in the 1980s.

“It is a travesty that Kenneth Smith has been able to avoid his death sentence for nearly 35 years after being convicted of the heinous murder-for-hire slaying of an innocent woman, Elizabeth Sennett,” Mr. Marshall said in a statement.

That court filing to the state’s top court also indicated that Alabama plans to execute Mr. Smith via nitrogen hypoxia, according to a news release from the attorney general’s office. The method of execution is authorized in three states, including Alabama, but it’s never been tried before.

While nitrogen makes up about 78 percent of the air inhaled by people and is harmless when inhaled with oxygen, the execution method will force the inmate to breathe 100 percent nitrogen. The method would deprive the death row inmate of oxygen before they would then pass out “within a minute” before dying shortly after that, some experts have said.

“Placed into a pure nitrogen environment, the convict would be unconscious within a minute (possibly even after a breath or two) and would be dead soon after,” Charles Blanke, a professor of medicine at Oregon Health & Science University School of Medicine, said in a Fox News interview. “Its failure rate, that is, cases in which the prisoner survives, would likely be much lower than what we see with current death penalty methods.”

Proponents of the execution method say that it would likely be painless. However, opponents have said it’s essentially a form of experimentation on people.

“No state in the country has executed a person using nitrogen hypoxia and Alabama is in no position to experiment with a completely unproven and unused method for executing someone,” the Equal Justice Initiative, a nonprofit that provides legal representation to those who may have been denied a fair trial, told the Associated Press.

Alabama authorized nitrogen hypoxia in 2018 amid a shortage of drugs used to carry out lethal injections, but the state has not attempted to use it until now to carry out a death sentence. Oklahoma and Mississippi have also authorized nitrogen hypoxia, but have not used it.

However, Alabama likely doesn’t have to prove whether a pure nitrogen-based execution in humane, one professor said.

“The burden is on the condemned inmate to show that it is torturous rather than the burden being on the state to show that it’s not,” Richmond University law professor Corinna Barrett Lain in an interview with Scientific American. Ms. Lain said that the most humane method of execution is likely death via firing squad.

Alabama has been working for several years to develop the nitrogen hypoxia execution method, but has disclosed little about its plans. The attorney general’s court filing did not describe the details of the how the execution would be carried out. Corrections Commissioner John Hamm told reporters last month that a protocol was nearly complete.

Meanwhile, a number of Alabama inmates seeking to block their executions by lethal injection, including Mr. Smith, have argued they should be allowed to die by nitrogen hypoxia.

According to the Alabama attorney general’s office, the pastor of the Westside Church of Christ in Sheffield, Alabama, in March 1988 sought to hire a hitman to kill his wife after incurring substantial debts and having an affair with another woman. The pastor, Charles Sennett, then took a large life insurance policy on his wife, Elizabeth Sennett, before hatching a scheme to have his wife murdered.

Mr. Sennett, according to the release, then hired Mr. Smith and John Parker, a friend of Mr. Smith, to kill Mrs. Sennett and pay them $1,000 each for the killing. The release said she was “ambushed,” beaten, and stabbed multiple times before her death. A week after his wife’s slaying, Mr. Sennett committed suicide and was never charged.

Mr. Smith was tried for the murder in 1989 and again in 1996. He was convicted both times with capital murder, receiving the death penalty both times.

In July 2010, Mr. Parker, who was convicted and sentenced to death, was executed for Mrs. Sennett’s death via lethal injection at the Holman Prison in Atmore, Alabama. The U.S. Supreme Court at the time rejected a stay minutes before the execution began.

“I’m sorry. I don’t ever expect you to forgive me,” Mr. Parker told the woman’s family before his execution. “I really am sorry.”

At the time, Charles Sennett told outlets that the execution was “one of the steps we have to take to get closure and justice,” adding that “we still have another step with Smith, but tonight was a step in the right direction.”

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

Following the Supreme Court’s denial of President Biden’s student loan forgiveness plan, the interest on those debts begins accruing on Sept. 1, with loan repayments due on Oct. 1. Amid this souring backdrop, there has been a number of employers rushing to attract talent – in the form of debt assistance programs.  

Bloomberg cited new data from job site Handshake that showed the share of full-time job listings mentioning student debt repayment programs has doubled since 2019. The share currently stands at 3% of all job listings. 

More than 40.5 million borrowers owe a whopping $1.4 trillion in student loans. Using a 10-year payment period and a 5.8% interest rate, Barclays (in a separate report) calculates those folks owe an average of $390 monthly. Handshake data shows about 50% of the class of 2024 will graduate with student debt.

The days of companies offering employees free cafes, restaurants, and well-stocked micro kitchens are over. Instead, offering student debt relief programs is the new way to attract talent.  

Christine Cruzvergara, Handshake’s chief education strategy officer, expects an increasing number of employers will begin to offer student loan relief perks in the years ahead to attract the best talent. 

“The perk helps with higher retention of younger career employees,” according to Megan Bourque, head of benefits at Fidelity Investments. She said her firm first offered the assistance program in 2016, allowing eligible staff who work more than 30 hours a week to access up to $15,000 over seven years’ worth of monthly payments.  

“With a cohort of workers increasingly burdened by student debt, help paying it down is likely to have wide appeal,” Cruzvergara said, adding, “It’s such a large swath of our graduating class now that it’s undeniably an issue for an entire generation.”

Forget free food perks. New grads with insurmountable debts will now search for companies offering the best assistance plans. 

Take note, corporate America. 

Authored by J.M. Phelps via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

A service member who earlier this year blew the whistle and disclosed data from a Pentagon medical database showing a spike in the rate of myocarditis in the military in 2021, after the rollout of COVID-19 vaccines, is going public.

The whistleblower is active-duty Navy Medical Service Corps officer Lt. Ted Macie. He has also revealed new data showing a substantial rise in accidents, assaults, self-harm, and suicide attempts in the military in 2021, compared to the average from 2016 to 2021.

This includes a 147 percent increase in intentional self-harm incidents among service members, and an 828 percent increase in injuries from assaults.

Lt. Macie told The Epoch Times that he began “keeping an eye on” a defense medical database when another whistleblower alerted him to a rise in health-related incidents in the winter of 2021/2022.

The Defense Medical Epidemiology Database (DMED) is a depository of all diagnoses—recorded using International Classification of Diseases (ICD) codes—when an active service member is seen on- or off-base by a military or civilian provider. The database does not include any personally identifiable information of service members.

In January, Lt. Macie and his wife traveled to Washington with a report of the data he collected from DMED.

It showed that diagnoses of myocarditis, a form of heart inflammation, jumped 130.5 percent in 2021 when compared to the average from the years 2016 to 2020. Myocarditis is a serious condition that can lead to death.

All four of the COVID-19 vaccines authorized in the United States can cause myocarditis, according to U.S. officials. COVID-19 can also cause myocarditis, though some experts say the data on that front is weaker.

U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin mandated the vaccines in 2021, a requirement that remained in place until Congress forced its withdrawal in late 2022.

The data also showed spikes in diagnoses of pulmonary embolism (41.2 percent), blood clots in the lungs, ovarian dysfunction (38.2 percent), and “complications and ill-defined descriptions of heart disease” (37.7 percent).

DMED Data

Lt. Macie downloaded the data almost a year after the Pentagon said it fixed a data corruption issue with the DMED.

In 2022, other military whistleblowers reported shocking spikes in disease rates after the introduction of the COVID-19 vaccine. But the Pentagon responded that those figures were not correct because some diagnoses in the years 2016 to 2020 had not been counted, an issue stemming from “corrupt” data.

After the Pentagon said the issue was corrected, Lt. Macie and others—including First Lt. Mark Bashaw, a preventive medicine officer in the Army, Navy Lt. Billy Mosley, Army Surgeon Lt. Col. Theresa Long,  and Army doctor Maj. Samuel Sigoloff—noticed that there were still concerning signs of increases in diagnoses, such as myocarditis and pulmonary embolism.

Since word spread that Lt. Macie was the only active-duty member at his command who didn’t receive the COVID-19 vaccine, and was actively suing the secretary of defense, Lt. Macie said people began to come to him in confidence telling him about adverse reactions, which they were convinced were “from the shot,” he said. “These anecdotal, but compelling personal injuries, were a motivator to get things on the right track.”

After verifying Lt. Macie’s report with the Senate Subcommittee on Investigations, Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.), the top Republican on that panel, sent a letter (pdf) to Mr. Austin in March asking the Pentagon to confirm Lt. Macie’s data.

Lt. Macie had suspected the Pentagon would not respond, based on his experience of previous requests made within the department going unfulfilled.

“In the event our suspicions were correct, I kept additional data to reveal as soon as the data we brought [to Washington] was confirmed, or after being ignored for some time,” he said.

“Much to my surprise,” said Lt. Macie, the Pentagon, in a July reply (pdf) to Mr. Johnson’s letter, confirmed that his data was accurate.

In the Pentagon’s response, Gilbert Cisneros Jr., undersecretary of defense for personnel and readiness, pointed to data on the rate of cases per 100,000 person-years, a way to measure risk across a certain period of time. For almost all the conditions that showed an increase in cases in 2021, he stated, the new case rate was higher for service members with a prior COVID-19 infection than for those with a prior COVID-19 vaccination.

“This suggests that it was more likely to be [COVID-19] infection and not COVID-19 vaccination that was the cause,” Mr. Cisneros stated.

Lt. Macie said he plans to bring the additional data he kept “up my chain of command with the aim of a resolution and validation for injured service members, but I’m not holding my breath.”

Lt. Macie has also brought this new data to the office of Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.), hoping to get the attention of the House Armed Services Committee, a panel Mr. Gaetz sits on. Lt. Macie is not aware of what Mr. Gaetz and his staff will do, but the lawmaker’s office acknowledged in June that “they will take a look,” he said. The Epoch Times has reached out to Mr. Gaetz’s office for comment.

Rise in Accidents, Self-Harm

According to his research, health-related incidents in 2021 rose substantially above the five-year average from 2016 to 2020. “As some may expect,” he said, “internal injuries like myocarditis (130 percent), tinnitus (42 percent), and cerebral infarction (stroke) (43.5 percent) are on the rise.”

But it was Macie’s wife who became curious, asking about other types of injuries.

“What about external cause morbidities, like burns, accidents, self-inflicted harm, and injuries that are not expected to be associated with the COVID shot?” he said.

With the new data he discovered, the following incidents exhibited increases in 2021 above the five-year average: exposure to forces of nature (773 percent), water transport accidents (7,400 percent), land transport vehicle (526 percent), suicide attempts (33 percent), assault (828 percent), slipping, tripping, stumble and falls (471 percent), and intentional self-harm (147 percent).

Some of these not only increased in 2021 but continued to rise in 2022. The Epoch Times has viewed screenshots of this data from the DMED.

Historically, if the Pentagon noticed a trend in certain areas like abuse and suicide, he said, the department would hold a safety stand-down—a military-wide mandatory training and review where all commands require one hundred percent participation.”

“What will higher-ranking general officers, the Surgeon General, Defense Health Agency, and Joint Chiefs do when they receive word that ICD codes/injuries for these incidents are on the rise?” said Lt. Macie.

“Soon, we’ll see if the same people who claim that the service member is their top priority actually show that through their action,” he added.

According to Lt. Macie, there are a few possibilities concerning the new data collected.

“If the data is correct, and is confirmed by [the Pentagon], more than just a stand-down needs to happen. Rising problems like self-harm, suicide attempts, accidents, and assault must be addressed immediately, not just the mess of [vaccine] injuries.”

He noted that the Pentagon may, for a second time, reply saying the data is incorrect, even though the department previously said they’ve resolved the data corruption issues in the system to prevent future errors. But such a reply would raise even more questions going to the integrity of the database and whether there is a cover-up at play, he projected.

Lt. Macie hopes that Congress will press the Pentagon for answers concerning this new data.

But if lawmakers fail to do this, “the people need to step up to hold our government accountable.”

Lt. Macie emphasized that his views do not reflect those of the Department of Defense or the Department of the Navy. The Pentagon didn’t return inquiries by The Epoch Times seeking an explanation for the rise in external cause morbidities.

Zachary Stieber contributed to this report. 

Clinical psychologist and Daily Wire contributor Dr. Jordan Peterson has been cast into Canadian outer darkness for thought crimes.

And by Canadian outer darkness, we mean “social media sensitivity training” for his controversial (practical) statements, which a panel of three Ontario Divisional Court judges agreed have been “unprofessional.”

According to court documents, the “coaching program” will require Peterson to “reflect on, and ameliorate [his] professionalism in public statements.”

“The order is not disciplinary and does not prevent Dr. Peterson from expressing himself on controversial topics; it has a minimal impact on his right to freedom of expression,” wrote Justice Paul Schabas.

Peterson, a former professor of psychology for the University of Toronto, went viral in 2016 for a lecture in which he condemned the use of pronouns, and slammed Canadian lawmakers over legislation on gender identity or expression, The Federalist Papers reports, citing the BBC.

In making their decision, the court weighed several of Peterson’s controversial comments to decide if they were in compliance with the College’s Standards of Professional Conduct.

The first example cited by the court was a tweet from Jan. 2, 2022, in which Peterson responded to an individual concerned about overpopulation by stating: “You’re free to leave at any point.”

Less than a month later, during an appearance on “The Joe Rogan Experience,” Peterson reportedly referred to a former client of his as “vindictive,” and said that their complaint against him was a “pack of lies.” In the same episode, while speaking about air pollution and child deaths, Peterson reportedly also said: “it’s just poor children, and the world has too many people on it anyways.”

Another controversial comment of Peterson’s was in response to news of actress Elliot Page, formerly Ellen, identifying as a man and undergoing gender-affirming breast removal surgery.

“Remember when pride was a sin? And Ellen Page just had her breasts removed by a criminal physician,” the June 2022 tweet reportedly read. He was consequently suspended from Twitter for misgendering and “deadnaming” the actor. -The Federalist Papers

Reacting to the ruling, Peterson says he’s perplexed by the contradiction in the court decision which initially acknowledges the “fundamental reality of freedom of speech for Canadians,” only to later stipulate that professional organizations like the College of Psychologists can impose restrictions on such freedoms.

“Not only do I not see what I did wrong, I think what I’ve done on the Public Communication front is my responsibility as a clinician to tell the truth about what I see,” said Peterson, adding “Apparently the college has the right to decide that I can be re-educated forcibly with the risk of my license essentially because I made political statements that the members of the college don’t agree with.”

As Peterson points out, the very fabric of Canadian democracy is now in question. “That shows you all you Canadians who are listening and everyone outside of the country who might be the least bit interested in Canada that shows you exactly what our bloody Constitution is worth.”

“I think I have a responsibility to say what I think and I think many people agree with that and I think the fundamental consequence of that around the world has been massively beneficial to people,” Peterson continued.

“I think Professionals in Canada no longer have the right to express their thoughts which makes which invalidates them as useful professionals.”

Watch:

Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

The decay of social norms and status quo systems triggering an authoritarian tightening of the screws is a well-worn pattern throughout human history.

What do I mean by Neither Comply Nor Resist? Let’s start by noting society functions by our voluntary compliance with a spectrum of social norms–what’s socially acceptable and unacceptable–some of which are institutionalized into legally defined rules that impose judicial consequences on those who break the rules.

Society breaks down when either set of social norms–the institutionalized judiciary or the cultural norms– loses the voluntary compliance of the vast majority. This dynamic is illustrated by the “broken windows” phenomenon in which a neighborhood decays when windows are broken without enforcement or consequence (i.e. no enforcement of laws forbidding the destruction of others’ property) and the broken windows remain unrepaired (i.e. the social-cultural norms have broken down–the owners and authorities no longer care).

We can observe what happens when so-called petty crimes have no enforcement consequences (crime soars) and social norms of politeness break down (rudeness begets violence).

There is also a spectrum of personal responsibility and choice, from obedience to active resistance. This spectrum applies to both laws and regulations and to cultural norms.

Obeying laws and regulations keeps us out of trouble and maintains social order. If some drivers decide that it’s politically wrong that “red lights” mean stop, their “resistance” messes up life for the rest of us.

The problem, as we all know, is that when the Powers That Be (in any political system) feel threatened, they respond by becoming more authoritarian. They seek to tighten the screws on the populace to make sure nothing gets beyond their control, and they become hyper-vigilant about hammering down any nails that pop up as threats.

Before you know it, there are laws requiring everyone to wear their underwear on the outside of their clothing (an egregious Woody Allen reference). Regulations pile up to the point no one can even keep track or even be aware of them all. And penalties for law-breaking that is perceived as a threat to the Powers That Be increase.

Laws and regulations tend to be enforced asymmetrically along political lines. In the late 1960s and early 1970s, for example, a large percentage of federal law enforcement personnel and attention was focused on draft resisters, to the point that other criminal activity received less attention.

As authoritarian-political pressures mount, the agencies tasked with enforcing laws end up breaking laws to meet the demands of the Powers That Be. This was eventually laid bare in the congressional Church Committee hearings. It turns out institutions that are supposed to be above politics respond to political pressure when the Powers That Be sense their control is weakening / threatened. They turn up the heat on agencies and cashier bureaucrats who resist the politicization of enforcement.

In other words, The Powers That Be tighten the screws on law enforcement and the judiciary as part of the process of tightening the screws on the populace.

Render to Caesar that which is Caesar’s makes excellent sense as authoritarianism increases. Obeying the laws that are supposed to be applied equally to all is both a civic duty (that some are corrupt and get away with it doesn’t diminish our duty) and a strategy for avoiding needless trouble.

Active resistance is precisely what the system is hyper-vigilant about crushing. Trust me, getting called in by the FBI regarding “political crimes” isn’t like TV. You’re alone, and as for counting on being saved by Hollywood-movie heroic lawyers–it’s best not to confuse reality with entertainment. By all means, visit your buddy in the pen after his arrest, but he’s alone and you’re free to leave. If conscience demands resistance, be aware the system loves open resistance because that saves them the trouble of identifying troublemakers.

If it’s a matter of conscience, then be prepared to turn yourself in to start your prison sentence. This is what it takes, this is where it goes, especially for “political crimes,” i.e. crimes against the state, not against individuals. Trust me on this, I have friends who did this, I’ve visited friends after their arrest and gone to their trials in federal court. It’s not TV, it’s real life, with real consequences.

The system incentivizes compliance that isn’t legally binding. There’s no law requiring people to borrow vast sums to attend college, or take out a crushing mortgage to own a house; those are social norms we’re “encouraged” / pressured to comply with.

The point I’m making with Neither Comply Nor Resist is non-compliance and non-resistance are paths to personal freedom and responsibility that have no legal consequence. The individual who doesn’t pop up as a nail (i.e. a threat to The Powers That Be) and who renders to Caesar what is Caesar’s isn’t going to attract a lot of official attention. Fading into the dull-gray background of millions of other people with similar profiles is a practical strategy as social norms break down and authoritarian responses increase accordingly.

It’s called opting out, and it’s been a successful strategy since the waning days of the Western Roman Empire. Don’t want to pay high taxes? Then need less so you can make less money. Low income, low taxes. Start a self-employment enterprise that enables you to legally reduce your net income by expensing legitimate expenses. The less you need, the easier life gets. The healthier you are, the easier life gets. The more you produce and the less you consume, the easier life gets. And so on.

Decaying social norms and systems are more prone to breaking down. If things that were once reliable are no longer reliable or predictable, life gets less easy. The more Self-Reliant we are, the lower our exposure to risk and the downside of system decay.

The decay of social norms and status quo systems triggering an authoritarian tightening of the screws is a well-worn pattern throughout human history. It shouldn’t surprise us to be living this dynamic in real time. We don’t control the decay or the authoritarianism, but we do control our response.

Those who opt out or otherwise reduce their dependence and exposure to risk serve society in several ways. By reducing dependence and consumption, we lighten the load on institutions struggling to maintain services. By prioritizing production over consumption, we’re adding goods and services and not just consuming them. By contributing to networks of other trustworthy, self-reliant people, we’re maintaining positive social norms and setting an example of how life can still be worthwhile and rewarding even as social norms degrade and authoritarian pressures increase.

*  *  *

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No-good, terrible, bad news about the US labor market (coupled with a tumble in consumer confidence and uptick in inflation expectations) sparked chaos across multiple asset-classes today.

US Macro data has disappointed for 8 straight days, its biggest serial disappointment since June 2022…

Source: Bloomberg

The bad news sent the market’s expectations for Fed rate changes dramatically (dovishly) lower, erasing all of the post-Powell hawkish shift…

Source: Bloomberg

Stocks were already lifting at the cash open, then ripped higher after the dismal jobs data with long-duration equities outperforming…

The decline in real yields supported a higher valuation for stocks…

Source: Bloomberg

The S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow all managed to close back above their 50DMAs…

‘Most Shorted’ stocks squeezed higher – the biggest surge in a month…

Source: Bloomberg

0-DTE traders faded the early gains (and covered) and then faded the rally in the S&P after Europe closed (and covered)…

Source: SpotGamma

NVDA did its thing, surging back above pre-earnings close highs (topping $490) before sliding back

Bonds were aggressively bid with the short-end outperforming…

Source: Bloomberg

2Y Yields tumbled back below 5.00%…

Source: Bloomberg

…and the yield curve (2s30s) steepened significantly…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar puked today, its biggest daily drop since mid-July…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin started to rally when the dollar fell and then exploded higher (topping $28,000) on the SEC loss in court…

Source: Bloomberg

Spot Gold spiked around 1%, its best day since mid-July, nearing $1940…

Source: Bloomberg

Oil prices rallied ahead of tonight’s API data, with WTI back above $81 (after finding intraday support around $80)…

Finally, we note the market has swiftly gone from fear to greed as VIX, VVIX, and Skews are all tumbling. VVIX (vol of vol) is is its lowest since March…

Source: Bloomberg

After all, what is there to worry about? As SpotGamma notes, from today until the end of next week, there are a few data points (jobs, ISM) but, (based on IV’s) they are fairly low risk. Added into this window is the Labor Day holiday (next Monday).

Entering into the week of 9/11, there are a litany of catalysts including: CPI, large Sep OPEX, VIX Exp & FOMC. This suggests to us vol may be under pressure another ~2 weeks, and then risks pick up.

While there is no particular reason to be bearish, we note that a strong rally into OPEX/VIX Exp would certainly clear up the downside “padding” that we’ve been enjoying (and discussing) over the last few weeks. This could make downside into end of September/October “more available”.

Authored by Steve Watson via Summit News,

A parent at a California elementary school has slammed officials for sanctioning a playdate for kids that essentially segregated them by race, and excluded white children.

A flyer for the event at Anthony Chabot Elementary School in Oakland, CA notes that it is “for black, brown and API families.”

“If your family identifies as Black, Brown, or API or are [sic] a parent/caregiver of a Black, Brown, or API student. Come hang out while we get a chance to know each other and build our community as we kick off this schoolyear [sic],” reads the invite to the event.

Ironically it was hosted by the school ‘equity & inclusion committee’.

A California elementary school reportedly held a race segregated “playdate social” for all students except the white kids.

A parent blasted the school on social media, “we’ll look back and cringe so hard that we tried to beat racism by segregating kids of color from white kids” pic.twitter.com/LhBMCtwSEq

— Libs of TikTok (@libsoftiktok) August 28, 2023

Taking to social media, the parent noted “I dunno about others, but I’m genuinely upset about what ultimately boils down to a “No whites allowed” playdate.”

“We’ll look back and cringe so hard that we tried to beat racism by segregating kids of color from white kids,” the parent added.

“How is this productive? Why are we continuing to segregate people, let alone KIDS,” the parent also noted.

*  *  *

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Update (1538ET):

Parts of Key West are already observing high wind gusts and rain from Hurricane Idalia. The Federal Aviation Administration has begun rerouting planes from Florida and closing Gulf routes this afternoon.  

The FAA warned on X, formerly known as Twitter, that flights in and out of Palm Beach International Airport, Miami International Airport, and Fort Lauderdale-Hollywood International Airport could be disrupted in the next 12 hours. 

The FAA is re-routing aircraft and closing Gulf routes as Hurricane #Idalia is expected to hit the Florida region Wednesday morning. We may pause flights in and out of @flyPBI, @iflymia and @FLLFlyer to keep you safe. Monitor https://t.co/smgdqJNBiL. #FAAWeatherSquad pic.twitter.com/xkwSDMsuGy

— The FAA ✈️ (@FAANews) August 29, 2023

Meanwhile, Port Tampa Bay, the largest Florida port by tonnage and land, closed all waterways, setting port condition ZULU. This means the port is preparing for the “possibility of gale force winds (34-47 knots) entering the Bay in the next 12 hours.” 

THREAD 4/4: Additionally, port staff will continue to work round-the-clock so we can re-open to full operations as soon as safely possible to support the community and region we serve.

All weather-related updates will be posted here: https://t.co/Z2KqPHm3pN

— Port Tampa Bay (@PortTampaBay) August 29, 2023

As of this afternoon, Idalia had maximum sustained winds of 90 mph, churning approximately 240 miles to the southwest of Tampa, as it maintained a northward trajectory at a pace of 15 mph.

Radar with grid lines is helpful

Hurricane Idalia is along 85°W and we’re watching for wobbles and any hints of eastward movement. pic.twitter.com/2zd0tOVnBR

— Ryan Maue (@RyanMaue) August 29, 2023

… and this 

ON THIS DATE IN 2005: Hurricane Katrina made landfall as a category three storm over Southeast Louisiana and Mississippi. The majority of the loss of lives in Hurricane Katrina was due to flooding caused by fatal engineering flaws in the flood protection system, specifically the… pic.twitter.com/Yy8tDYnRQr

— James Spann (@spann) August 29, 2023

This is how the stock market reacts following major hurricanes striking the US:

The S&P 500’s median change the day after prior ‘major’ hurricanes since 1990 made landfall was a gain of 0.32% with gains 72% of the time. pic.twitter.com/FkfLo4rD6P

— Bespoke (@bespokeinvest) August 29, 2023

UBS sheds more color on trading activity after major hurricane strikes: 

With Hurricane Idalia looking like it’s going to make landfall by about 8:00 New York on Wednesday, below is analyst Brian Meredith gave his view on the potential impact. The range of outcomes here is large – preliminary estimates on Aug. 28 from Risk Management Solutions implied average insured losses of $9.36 bn with a 50% probably of losses exceeding $4.05 bn and 10% probability of losses of $25.6 bn.

*   *   * 

According to the latest update by the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Idalia formed early Tuesday morning and is currently 320 miles south-southwest of Tampa. With maximum sustained winds of 80 mph, Idalia is a Category 1 hurricane. 

NHC expects Idalia to ‘rapidly intensify’ later today and could strike the Gulf Coast of Florida as a Category 3 or above on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale on Wednesday morning. 

“Rapid intensification is likely through landfall, and Idalia is forecast to become an extremely dangerous major hurricane before landfall on Wednesday,” said NHC senior hurricane expert Eric Blake.

🗣️ WRAP UP PREPARATIONS! #HurricaneIdalia continues to move north!

Potential Impacts:
🌊8-12′ storm surge further north, 4-7′ Tampa Bay
🌬️ TS/H force winds depending on location
🌧️4-8″ rain with locally higher amounts
🌪️ Several tornadoes possible

¡Vea gráfica en Español!#FLwx pic.twitter.com/kIZFxtqUBY

— NWS Tampa Bay (@NWSTampaBay) August 29, 2023

Landfall is expected between 0800 and 1000 ET tomorrow around the north of Tampa, but any shift in trajectory could put the metro area of 400,000 in jeopardy. 

NHC predicts Florida’s Big Bend area could be flooded with 12 feet of storm surge. 

Rainfall between 6 to 12 inches is expected. 

Forecasters predict sustained winds of 120 mph with gusts up to 150 mph before the storm makes landfall. 

“This is going to be a major hurricane,” said Gov. Ron DeSantis from the state Emergency Operations Center in Tallahassee Monday.

DeSantis continued, “It’s likely to continue strengthening all the way until impact and it could have catastrophic storm surge in your area.”

“If this storm hits at high tide, storm surge could and would reach 8 to 12 feet in some areas and so that would be life-threatening storm surge,” the governor said. 

He said the Big Bend area of the state hasn’t been blasted with a hurricane of this strength in decades. 

Ron DeSantis has ordered the activation of the National Guard while the Federal Emergency Management Agency announced President Biden approved an emergency declaration for the Sunshine State.