Iranian state TV confirms the Supreme Leader’s death… as well as the deaths of his daughter, son-in-law, grandson, and daughter-in-law.

Iranian state media confirms the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and announces 40 days of mourning, 7 days of public holiday pic.twitter.com/eiV5a9Qo7Y

— Nicole Grajewski (@NicoleGrajewski) March 1, 2026

What comes the day after? This US-Israeli regime change action may have just opened pandora’s box.

• US official confirms to Fox that US believes Khamenei and 5-10 top Iranian leaders killed in initial Israeli strike on compound; agree with Israel’s intelligence assessment.

• No U.S. casualties reported, 12 hours after Washington launched Operation Epic Fury alongside Israel, targeting Iran’s security and military infrastructure, CENTCOM says. Al Jazeera reporting over 200 killed in Iran. Likely the death toll will climb.

• AFP: Two Israeli TV networks report photo of Khamenei’s body shown to Trump, Netanyahu

• Israeli ambassador to Washington Yechiel Leiter told U.S. officials that Iran’s supreme leader Ali Khamenei has been killed in the Israeli strike on his compound, a source with knowledge said (Axios).

• Jerusalem Post (unconfirmed): Israeli officials informed Khamenei assassinated in Iran strike, body said to be found in rubble. Iranian authorities themselves have not said this, and an information block/fog of war inside Iran persists.

• Israeli official says Khamenei killed; Trump: Regime really didn’t want a deal

• PressTV: The Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) has announced that it destroyed a sophisticated American radar system stationed in Qatar as part of its retaliatory attacks targeting US bases and assets in the region.

• “I can go long and take over the whole thing, or end it in two or three days and tell the Iranians: ‘See you again in a few years if you start rebuilding [your nuclear and missile programs],” Trump said in a five-minute phone interview from Mar-a-Lago (Axios).

• Trump calls for regime change. Will he commit ground troops to do it? Meanwhile Netanyahu addresses Iranian people, claiming “help has arrived.”

• Iran signals could be ready for de-escalation after regional missile barrage: Tehran indicates it does not want further escalation following retaliatory missile strikes on at least five countries, including Israel. Iranian state TV cancels a long-promised speech by Ayatollah Khamenei. An Israeli official says regime leaders cannot currently locate him. US strikes appear to have continued in waves on Saturday.

• Iran targets US military sites, not US mainland: Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi tells NBC News that Iran is striking US military facilities in the region, not “Americans in their land,” and says Tehran is ready to talk once US-Israeli strikes stop. He states Khamenei is alive “as far as I know” and confirms two commanders were killed but senior leadership remains in place.

• Senior Iranian commanders reported killed: Reuters cites sources saying Defense Minister Amir Nasirzadeh and IRGC commander Mohammed Pakpour were killed in Israeli strikes.

• Israeli strike allegedly hit girls’ elementary school in southern Iran: An airstrike in Minab, Hormozgan province, struck a primary school for girls, killing dozens, according to state media, underscoring the likely mounting civilian toll from the large-scale US-Israeli bombardment of Iran.

• Regional panic and military buildup: Gulf residents rush to stockpile supplies; the UAE reassures the public about reserves. The UK confirms aircraft are supporting US-Israeli operations.

• Operation Epic Fury expands: The US-Israeli campaign continues striking Iranian military infrastructure, senior leaders, and high-value targets across multiple cities. Satellite imagery shows severe damage to Khamenei’s compound in Tehran; his whereabouts remain unclear.

• Trump announced start of “major combat operations”: In an eight-minute address, President Trump says the US is conducting a “massive and ongoing operation” to destroy Iran’s missile capabilities and demands Iranian forces surrender or face “certain death.”

• Iran further threatens regional bases: Iranian Armed Forces spokesman Gen. Abolfazl Shekarchi warns that any regional base used by the US or Israel will be targeted. Reports emerge of Iranian retaliatory strikes across the Middle East.

• Iran launches regional retaliation: Tehran fires missiles at Israel and US-linked assets in Qatar, UAE, Kuwait, Bahrain, Syria, Jordan, and Iraq. Explosions hit Tehran and other Iranian cities. Multiple countries close their airspace.

• Coordinated US-Israel strikes dubbed ‘Operation Epic Fury’: Washington and Tel Aviv launch joint attacks on Iranian targets after months of planning, following failed indirect nuclear talks. Trump frames the operation as eliminating “imminent threats” and calls on Iranians to “take over your government.”

* * *

Update (10:00ET): Will the chaos be contained, after Iran unleashed retaliatory missiles on at least five regional countries, including Israel? Iran is quickly signaling that it’s not willing to escalate this further, hoping for a halt in the US-Israeli operation:

Iran is attacking U.S. military facilities in the Middle East region and not “Americans in their land,” Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said in his exclusive interview with NBC News.

He added that Tehran was interested in de-escalation and ready to talk once the joint U.S.-Israeli strikes end.

Amid rumors that Ayatollah Ali Khamenei could be dead, after direct strikes on his main headquarters in the capital, Araghchi said that he is still alive “as far as I know.”

Araghchi is directly signaling the American side via an exclusive interview with NBC News. He spoke live from Tehran Saturday morning. He acknowledged that “two commanders had died but senior officials in the regime had survived including the head of the judiciary and the parliament speaker.”

“All high ranking officials are alive,” he said. “So everybody is now in its position, and we are handling this situation, and everything is fine.” 

Iranian Defense Minister Amir Nasirzadeh and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commander Mohammed Pakpour were killed in Israeli strikes, according to two sources briefed on Israel’s military operations and one regional source, cited in Reuters.

As for finding the Ayatollah, he is probably deep in a hidden underground bunker that no one but his closest IRGC advisers know about. Americans need to be reminded that this is a country of over 90 million people and geographically is the size of half the European continent.

Bloomberg writes on the prospect of full regime change, which would likely require US boots on the ground:

Conflicting reports are circulating about who in Iran was targeted and whether the attacks were successful. If senior Iranian officials were indeed killed, that would be significant. But it doesn’t mean the end of the Islamic Republic.

While the Supreme Leader is the ultimate decision-maker, he isn’t the only one, and succession planning has been underway for years. Similarly, the Revolutionary Guards are deeply embedded across political, economic, and security sectors. Targeting their leadership would weaken them, but it wouldn’t dismantle the organization altogether.

Gulf populations in panic mode, via Bloomberg:

In Dubai, some delivery services have been suspended as people flood supermarkets to buy water and other food essentials. Stockpiling prompted UAE authorities to issue a statement to reassure residents and the millions of expatriates that there is ample supply.

The UAE said its strategic reserve of essential commodities is “robust, comprehensive and diversified and asked people to refrain from stockpiling.

The UK has meanwhile confirmed that it has planes in the air supporting the US-Israeli operation.

* * *

Update (0845ET):

Iranian military officials said they would deliver a “historic lesson” to Israel and the U.S. in response to the strikes, as Operation Epic Fury, the U.S.-Israeli campaign designated by the Department of War, continues to hit military infrastructure, top army leaders, and other high-value targets across multiple Iranian cities.

Earlier footage allegedly showed the Iranian supreme leader’s compound being struck by what appeared to be U.S. or Israeli missiles or air-delivered munitions.

New Airbus satellite imagery reportedly shows the compound in Tehran sustained severe damage; it remains unclear whether Ayatollah Khamenei was inside at the time of the strike.

Shortly after Operation Epic Fury began, President Trump announced in an eight-minute video on Truth Social that “major combat operations” had begun.

“The United States military is undertaking a massive and ongoing operation to prevent this very wicked, radical dictatorship from threatening America and our core national security interests,” the president said. “We are going to destroy their missiles and raze their missile industry to the ground.”

Trump continued, “To the members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard, the armed forces, and all of the police, I say tonight that you must lay down your weapons and have complete immunity or, in the alternative, face certain death.”

Operation Epic Fury comes amid the U.S. building a massive military presence in the region (read report). Also, one day after indirect nuclear talks (read here) between the U.S. and Iran did not end so well, according to Trump.

U.S. officials told NBC reporter Courtney Kube that Israel has targeted Iranian leaders, while the U.S. has targeted Iran’s ballistic missile and nuclear high-value facilities.

There are reports that IRGC Commander Mohammad Pakpour was killed by Israeli strikes.

According to assessments, Mohammad Pakpour, the Commander of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), has been eliminated by Israeli decapitation strikes on Tehran. pic.twitter.com/KpNyrNuWgh

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) February 28, 2026

Gen. Abolfazl Shekarchi, the spokesman for Iran’s Armed Forces, told state media that any military base used by the U.S. and Israel in the region will be targeted. There have already been reports of Iranian retaliatory strikes across the region.

Sources tell CNN that Operation Epic Fury was the result of “months of joint planning” and will involve several days of attacks.

*   *   * 

The U.S. and Israel have conducted coordinated strikes on Iranian targets, which President Trump described in an eight-minute video on Truth Social as the start of “major combat operations” aimed at defending the U.S. by “eliminating imminent threats from the Iranian regime.”

“The hour for your freedom is at hand,” President Trump told the Iranian people in the video. “When we’re finished, take over your government. It will be yours to take. This will be probably your only chance for generations.”

President Donald J. Trump on the United States military combat operations in Iran: pic.twitter.com/LimJmpLkgZ

— The White House (@WhiteHouse) February 28, 2026

President Trump is expected to address the American people on Saturday morning following the second U.S. strike on Iranian soil in less than a year. The first strike took place in June 2025, when U.S. stealth bombers dropped bombs on three nuclear sites inside Iran.

The focus on the Saturday morning strikes (Brent crude futures are closed), the president said, was to ensure Americans “will never be threatened by a nuclear-armed Iran.”

Bloomberg headline: Oil Tankers Avoiding Vital Hormuz Strait After US Bombs Iran

Oil Tankers Avoiding Vital Hormuz Strait After US Bombs Iran: BBG

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) February 28, 2026

In markets, with Brent crude futures closed, Bitcoin was hammered from the $65k level, down to the $63k level.

US and Israeli strikes on Iran come one day after the latest round of indirect nuclear talks between Iran and the US, about which the president said he was “not happy with the progress,” adding: “They don’t want to say the key words: ‘We’re not going to have a nuclear weapon.'”

A US official told CNN that the US strikes were focused on Iranian military targets but did not comment on the ongoing operation. Another official told the outlet that the objective of the strikes was to address the Iranian military threat. The first official said the US military had put countermeasures in place to protect its personnel in the region.

AP News reports:

The first strikes of the attack appeared to target the compound home to Iran’s 86-year-old Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in downtown Tehran. It wasn’t immediately clear if he was there at the time. Smoke could be seen rising from the Iranian capital.

JUST IN — 🇮🇷🇮🇱🇺🇸 The strike on the presidential palace in Tehran pic.twitter.com/YLY4ShMrUC

— UK Report (@UK_REPT) February 28, 2026

BREAKING:

Israel is currently striking Iran’s capital, Tehran. pic.twitter.com/xQ3lZSQm5h

— Globe Eye News (@GlobeEyeNews) February 28, 2026

Shortly after the strike, the US Department of Defense wrote on X, “Operation Epic Fury.” For context, last year’s strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities was “Operation Midnight Hammer.”

OPERATION EPIC FURY 🇺🇸

— Department of War 🇺🇸 (@DeptofWar) February 28, 2026

Iranian state-run media outlets Fars and IRNA reported strikes in Isfahan, Qom, Lorestan, Karaj, Kermanshah, and Tabriz, as well as in the capital, Tehran.

Israel described the strikes against Iran as “a broad, coordinated, and joint operation against the regime” that was planned for months.

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 U.S. Tomahawk cruise missiles flying over Iraq toward Iranpic.twitter.com/elRKAy7MK6 https://t.co/bJ3LEpDsMG

— Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal) February 28, 2026

Earlier, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in a recorded message that Israeli military action against Iran would be “much more powerful” than Israel’s 12-day operation against Tehran last year.

In response, Iran’s paramilitary Revolutionary Guard launched a wave of drones and missiles targeting Israel. There were other reports that the U.S. Navy’s 5th Fleet command center in the host nation, Bahrain, was targeted by Iranian missiles.

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 Iranian missile striking Bahrain.pic.twitter.com/e8mo4gEKKS https://t.co/x2AM1ErncS

— Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal) February 28, 2026

Other reports suggest Iran launched projectiles at US bases and targets beyond Bahrain, and also in Kuwait and Qatar.

Iran’s Foreign Ministry wrote on X, “The time has come to defend the homeland and confront the enemy’s military assault. Just as we were prepared for negotiations, we have been even more prepared for defense at all times. The armed forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran will decisively respond to the aggressors with full authority.”

*Developing…

Amid an armada of dystopian futurists, projecting linear thoughts into a future of ‘AI uber alles’, Marc Andreessen stands as a beacon of potential utopian light, seeing a future that looks very different and very positive for young and old alike.

In a brief few minutes, the co-founder of Netscape and VC firm Andreessen Horowitz (a16z) believes instead that we are living through a unique (and most incredible) time in history with the rise of AI coming right as human civilization needs it…

“we’re going to have AI and robots precisely when we actually need them [with populations shrinking] to keep the economy from actually shrinking.”

Simply put, Andreessen says that fears of AI-driven mass job loss are overly simplistic.

After decades of unusually slow technological change and low job churn, AI could restore historical productivity levels (exemplified by the period from 1870-1930), sparking opportunity, innovation, and net job growth rather than displacement. 

Declining populations and reduced immigration will make human labor increasingly valuable. AI’s timing is “miraculous”, Andreessen exclaims, preventing economic shrinkage from depopulation.

In even radical scenarios, explosive productivity leads to output gluts, collapsing prices, and massive real-wealth gains – equivalent to “giant raises” for everyone – while making safety-nets more affordable. 

Whether incremental or transformative, Andreessen sees the outcome as fundamentally positive economic news.

“…there’s all this concern among young people that their jobs are not going to be there for them. AI is replacing them…”

Andreessen replies (emphasis ours): 

So the job-substitution/job-loss thing is very reductive. I think it’s an overly simplistic model. And again it goes back to what I said at the very beginning which is we’ve actually been in a regime for 50 years of very slow technological change in the economy… like at half the rate of the previous era and a third the rate of like 100 years ago.

And so we’re coming out of this kind of phase where we’ve had like almost no technological progress in the economy. We’ve had remarkably little job churn as a result of that relative to any historical period. And so even if AI triples productivity growth in the economy, which would like be a massively big deal, it would take us back to the same level of job churn that was happening between 1870 and 1930.

And if you go back and you read accounts of 1870 to 1930, people just thought the world was awash with opportunity. Right? At that rate of technological transformation, kids were able to develop new careers into new areas of the economy, building new kinds of products and services. A huge part of everything in our modern world today was kind of invented and proliferated during that period.

And so even if AI triples the pace of economic change in the economy, it’s going to translate to a much higher rate of economic growth; it’s going to translate to a much higher rate of job growth. And there will be some level of like task level and job level substitution that will take place but that will be swamped by the macro effects of economic growth and innovation that will happen and that then corresponding to that there will be hiring blooms quite honestly I think all over the place

And then again go back to the fact that this is all happening in the face of declining population growth and increasingly population shrinkage. So human workers in many, many, many countries over the next you know 10, 20, 30 years are going to be at more and more of a premium, literally because you’re going to have shrinking population levels.

[While] we don’t really want to get into you know politics particularly but it does feel like the world broadly is going to reverse course on the rates of immigration that we’ve had for the last 50 years. it seems to be kind of a broad-based thing happening – rise in nationalism, concerns about the rate of immigration – and immigration historically in countries like the US ha ebbed and flowed over time based on how the national mood shifts.

And so in a country like the US (or any country in Europe), if you combine declining population with less immigration, the remaining human workers are going to be at a premium not at a discount. And so I think that the combination of faster productivity growth, faster economic growth, and then slower population growth and less immigration – actually means there’s going to be much less of this kind of dystopian/no-jobs thing. I just think it’s probably totally off-base. 

“That is extremely interesting. So, what I’m hearing is you’re not super worried about job loss. Is the key here that the timing kind of just works out, this population decrease, you know, like all these kind of have to line up for there not to be this massive job loss with AI?”

Andreessen replies (emphasis ours): 

Yeah.

Well, look, if we didn’t have AI, we’d be in a panic right now about what’s going to happen to the economy. Right? Because what we what we’d be staring at is a future of depopulation and depopulation without new technology would just mean that the economy shrinks. Right? 

So it would mean that the economy kind of itself kind of shrinks over time, the opportunity diminishes, and there are no new jobs, there are no new fields. There’s no new source of consumer demand for spending on things. And so you would be very worried about going into period of severe decline or stagnation.

Essentially you’d be looking at these very dystopian scenarios of like an economy self-euthanizing over time. 

So you’d be very worried about the opposite of what everybody thinks that they’re worried about. The only reason we’re not worried about that is because we now know that we have the technology that can substitute for the lack of population growth and also for the for the lack of immigration that’s likely.

And so, I would say the timing has worked out miraculously well in the sense that we’re going to have AI and robots precisely when we actually need them, to keep the economy from actually shrinking. 

And that’s just like a fundamentally good news story.

To get to the mass-job-loss thing that people are worried about, you’d have to look at like far, far, far higher rates of productivity growth. You’d have to look at rates of productivity growth that are 10, 20, 30, 50% a year – something like that – which are orders of magnitude higher than we’ve ever had in any economy in the history of the planet.

It’s possible that we get that. I mean, look, I have my utopian temptation along with everybody else.

If AI radically transforms everything overnight, then maybe… let’s play out the kind of utopian scenario. 

You get to a much higher level of productivity growth.

You get to a much higher level of technological change.

Corresponding to that you’ll have a massive economic boom. 

You’ll have massive growth in the economy and then corresponding with that you’ll have a collapse in prices. 

And so the price of goods and services that are affected by (or commoditized by) AI will collapse.

There’ll be price deflation and then as a consequence of price deflation everything that people are buying today gets a lot cheaper and that’s the equivalent of a gigantic increase in wealth right across the society.

This is actually worth talking about because people I think people get kind of sideways on this issue.

So if AI is going to transform the economy as much as the utopians or dystopians (or whatever kind) think that it will, the necessary economic calculation of what happens is massive productivity growth. 

The consequence of massive productivity growth literally means mechanically more output requiring less input, right? 

So you get more economic output for less input, right? So you’re substituting in AI for human workers.

And as a consequence, you get like this massive boom in output with much lower input costs. 

The result of that is you get lots of goods and services in all those affected sectors. The result of those gluts is you get collapsing prices, right? 

The collapsing prices mean that the thing today that cost you $100 now cost you $10 and now cost you $1.

That’s the equivalent of giving everybody a giant raise, right? 

Because now they have all this additional spending power. 

That additional spending power then translates to economic growth, right? 

The development of new fields. Everybody’s materially much better off very quickly. And then by the way, to the extent that you do have unemployment coming out the other side of that, it’s now much cheaper to provide the kind of social safety net to prevent people from being immiserated, right? 

Because the prices of all the goods and services that a welfare program has to pay from, they’re all collapsing, right? And so the price of healthcare collapses, the price of housing collapses, the price of education collapses, the price of everything else collapses because of the incredible impact that AI is having. 

And so in this kind of utopian/dystopian scenario that people have, there’s no scenario in which everybody’s just poor. In fact, it’s quite the opposite.

Everybody gets a lot richer because prices collapse and then it’s actually much easier to pay for the social safety net for the people who, for some reason, can’t find a job.

And so, maybe we end up in that scenario. 

I mean, the optimistic part of me says, yeah, maybe AI is that powerful and maybe the rest of the economy can actually change to accommodate that and maybe that’ll happen.

But the result of that is going to be a much better news story than people think it’s going to be. 

Everything I’ve just described, by the way, is just a very straightforward extrapolation on very basic economics. I’m not making any like bold predictions in what I just said. This is just a straightforward mechanical process that plays itself out if you have higher rates of productivity growth, which are necessarily the results of higher rates of technological growth.

And so, to be clear, I think we’re looking at a world that’s not like radically transformed the way that maybe the utopians think that it will be or the dystopians think it will be. 

I think it’ll be more incremental.

But I think that incremental shift is overwhelmingly going to be a good news process. And then even if it’s much faster, it’s also going to be a good news process. It’ll just be a good news process in the other way that I described.

Tl;dr: Bloomberg macro strategist, Michael Ball, warned that President Trump’s urging of Iranians to overthrow the government gives Saturday’s US and Israeli strikes on Iran the potential to usher in a more prolonged higher-volatility era rather than being a one-off tradeable shock.

Traders will be closely watching for updates on crude production and shipping disruptions, and any spike in oil will move across global rates and FX and eventually weigh on equities – but Trump’s post-strike comments make it harder for markets to assume this is one and done.

A limited strike would likely see the usual pattern:

Crude and gold spike, equities wobble, then volatility compresses if production is unaffected and Strait of Hormuz flows keep moving, leading the risk premium to ebb quickly.

But a longer-term campaign framed around leadership removal is different.

It will stretch the uncertainty window, raise the probability of wider tail risk outcomes, keep oil prices elevated and volatility high and force broader risk premiums to reflect a more uncertain growth and inflation backdrop.

*  *  *

Submitted by QTR’s Fringe Finance

Most of the U.S. woke up today to news that that the U.S. and Israel have started “major combat operations” and a broad military campaign against targets across Iran.

Also it looks like we have an answer about the “mystery” SPY put buyers and the super aggressive gold and silver call buyers into the close last week.

Someone was obviously in the know that full-scale military action involving Iran was about to kick off Friday night and was positioning ahead of it.

Anyone who tells you the options market can’t telegraph news or hint at where the market is headed isn’t paying attention.

Order flow doesn’t predict everything – but sometimes it absolutely signals that something big is coming.

The operation against Iran reportedly began with strikes in Tehran and other strategic locations late last night/early this morning. President Donald Trump urged Iranian civilians to take shelter during the attacks, but also made unusually direct comments suggesting that once operations conclude, Iranians should reclaim control of their government. The framing went well beyond nuclear concerns and referenced decades of hostility between Washington and Tehran since the 1979 revolution.

Initial targets reportedly included areas associated with Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, though it was not immediately clear whether he was present. Smoke was seen rising over parts of Tehran as the strikes unfolded.

According to various live reports (AP, CNN, Bloomberg) up until this morning, Iran responded quickly. The Revolutionary Guard announced it had launched drones and missiles toward Israel in what it described as an initial wave of retaliation. Air raid warnings sounded across Israel as the military moved to intercept incoming fire.

The stated rationale from Washington and Jerusalem centered on escalating tensions over Iran’s nuclear program and missile capabilities. U.S. naval assets had been repositioned in the region in recent weeks as diplomacy stalled. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu characterized the joint action as necessary to eliminate what Israel sees as a direct and existential threat.

The regional fallout has been swift. Iraq and the United Arab Emirates closed their airspace. Sirens were reported in Jordan. Bahrain said a missile targeted the headquarters of the U.S. Navy’s Fifth Fleet. Explosions were reported in Qatar. Syria later shut down portions of its southern airspace. Several major airlines suspended flights as a precaution.

European leaders issued a joint appeal for restraint, emphasizing the need to prevent further escalation and protect civilians. They stressed the importance of nuclear safety and adherence to international law while noting that the European Union has long pursued diplomatic efforts alongside sanctions targeting Iran’s leadership and Revolutionary Guard. EU officials said they are coordinating with member states to assist citizens in the region.

Meanwhile, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard said it had struck multiple facilities in retaliation, including U.S. installations in Bahrain, Qatar, and the UAE, as well as military targets in Israel.

Ayatollah Khamenei had not made a public appearance in the days leading up to the attack and had reportedly been moved to a secure location during prior hostilities. His current status has not been confirmed publicly. According to a person familiar with the planning, the operation had been coordinated between the U.S. and Israel for months and is expected to continue for several days.

So what does it mean for markets on Monday?

The way I see it, there are two very different paths that are possible here.

One path is that this becomes a non-event by Monday morning. We have precedent.

The U.S. military operation ordered by Donald Trump against Venezuela occurred over the weekend in early January, rather than on a weekday, and involved strikes in and around Caracas and the capture of President Nicolás Maduro.

Markets reopened on the following Monday, and major stock indexes, including U.S. equities and energy shares, were generally steady to higher as investors weighed the news and focused on the implications for oil-related sectors and broader fundamentals rather than selling off sharply in response to the weekend geopolitical event.

In those instances, traders ultimately treated the events as tactical and contained rather than the start of prolonged war. If investors conclude that objectives are narrow, retaliation is limited, and oil flows remain uninterrupted, markets could interpret the move as decisive rather than destabilizing.

In that scenario, dip buyers step in, volatility fades, energy spikes briefly, and by midweek the narrative shifts back to earnings, AI, and Fed policy.

Relevant precedents include the air strike to take out Qassem Soleimani in January 2020, and last year’s extensive Israeli strikes as part of Operation Rising Lion and US strikes on nuclear sites in Iran that comprised Operation Midnight Hammer.

If anyone knows the “I’m long gold and silver at the right time, futures have skyrocketed but by the time the cash open comes they’re already red” scenario, it’s me.

It happened the last time Israel attacked Iran last year — futures were crushed overnight but by the next morning’s cash open, rhetoric had softened and the market had already recovered.

But there’s still always the “other” scenario, too: escalation, both geopolitically and financially.

A worst-case outcome would involve a drawn-out regional conflict marked by heavy missile exchanges and the activation of Iranian proxy groups across Lebanon, Iraq, Syria, and elsewhere. Fighting could spread across multiple fronts, potentially pulling in additional regional actors and forcing deeper U.S. military involvement. Iran could attempt to disrupt shipping through the Strait of Hormuz or target regional energy infrastructure, creating a meaningful shock to global oil supply. Even temporary disruptions could push crude sharply higher, intensify inflation pressures, and rattle global risk assets.

A prolonged conflict could destabilize the Iranian state itself, creating internal fragmentation, humanitarian crisis, or a power vacuum. Alternatively, a regime under severe pressure might accelerate nuclear development as a deterrent. Either direction introduces multi-year instability.

The economic consequences would likely include higher energy costs, rising shipping and insurance expenses, and a broad tightening of financial conditions — all while global growth is already fragile.

There is also an ugly scenario that I don’t think is extremely likely, but needs to be taken very seriously.

As I wrote Friday, the market was only just beginning to acknowledge cracks in private credit. Bank stocks were being sold aggressively.

That matters because private credit has been one of the pillars of liquidity supporting risk assets over the past several years.

If stress there deepens, it can spill into broader credit markets quickly.

At the same time, last week’s ugly PPI data complicated the Federal Reserve’s position. Sticky inflation limits how aggressively policymakers can ease if financial conditions tighten. If you combine a Fed that looks constrained, early tremors in private credit, aggressive bank selling, and now the introduction of a serious geopolitical shock, the margin for error to keep a market trading at a Shiller PE of 40x shrinks.

If energy prices spike and inflation expectations rise, yields could climb at the same time growth expectations fall — a stagflationary mix that equities historically struggle with.

That is the type of setup that can turn a contained event into a liquidity event.

And once liquidity events begin, correlations go to one.

Positioning into Monday becomes less about prediction and more about preparation.

My 26 Stocks I’m Watching for 2026 were built with this type of uncertainty in mind. Precious metals names provide a hedge against geopolitical instability and currency debasement. Energy exposure benefits if crude moves higher or supply risk premiums expand. Select emerging markets with commodity leverage can outperform in resource-driven cycles. Consumer staples offer defensive ballast if broader indices wobble.

I’m not scrambling to overhaul that list. The bigger adjustment for people positioned similarly will be mostly mental. You prepare for a range of outcomes.

Green futures because traders assume containment. A sharp red open if oil gaps higher and risk parity funds de-risk. A volatility spike that fades by midday. Or a genuine air pocket if credit markets continue Friday’s mini-bank run and seize up.

This is also a reminder of how quickly narratives shift. On Thursday, the focus was inflation prints and private credit stress. By Saturday morning, we are discussing potential regional war that’ll take “days, not hours”, according to U.S. officials. Markets are reflexive and forward-looking, but they are not omniscient. Complacency builds quietly during extended rallies, especially when liquidity has repeatedly rescued drawdowns.

Sharp downturns often arrive before policymakers step in. If history is any guide, meaningful volatility tends to precede intervention — not follow it.

And again the larger lesson: things change fast, and they change without notice. Complacency kills, even in markets that appear permanently supported.

A Baltimore County, Maryland resident in a Facebook group called “BGE Victims,” which has 22,000 Marylanders venting about the power bill crisis, revealed earlier this week that a Baltimore County Police detective “paid [him] a visit” over posts in the online group that allegedly threatened “the parasites of BGE and the grid owners/operators.”

Baltimore resident Vin Shrader – or at least that’s his online name  – said, “A detective from the Balto. Co. P.D. just paid me a visit about some of my post claiming I’ve been threatening the parasites of bge and the grid owners / operators,” adding, “He strongly suggested that I tone down my opinons.”

Shrader continued, “BULLSHIT, Now I can expect the swat team to come and get me for using my 1st admenment rights. It’s now obvious the parasite democratic policticans along with bge are going to have local law enforcement do their bidding to shut us / me up. BULLSHIT, not going to happen. I have to be a martor, so be it. There’s only one way I’m going down.”

The Maryland power bill crisis first came to our attention in August 2024, when years of poor power-grid management by Democrats (mostly due to backfiring ‘green’ policies) in the state collided with surging electricity demand from AI data centers (read here).

Fast forward to today: the power bill crisis in the one-party rule state of Democratic Party kings and queens, headed by leftist Gov. Wes Moore, who has presidential ambitions, is getting hammered in the polling numbers (new data from Annapolis-based Gonzales Research & Media) as struggling Marylanders are financially crushed by mounting power-bill debt and venting their frustration in the group of 22,000.

All along, it was inevitable that the power bill crisis in the Mid-Atlantic would become a “major political issue” and that it was only a matter of time before the people revolted against local politicians who’ve been wearing green blinders for a decade, if not longer.

We don’t want to be the bearer of bad news for residents in the region, but the epic grid mismanagement by Democrats, now colliding with the era of data centers, almost certainly means this crisis is not going away anytime soon and will likely become one of the most pressing issues in Mid-Atlantic states like Maryland.

FYI to the 22,000 members of the group: It seems as if “Big Brother” is watching…

Authored by Jason Ditz via AntiWar.com,

Iraq’s Coordination Framework is still putting forward Nouri al-Maliki as its candidate for prime minister, despite President Trump loudly and repeatedly demand he be withdrawn. The US had reportedly set a deadline of Friday, February 27, to end the candidacy or face unspecified repercussions. What happens next, after the US has attacked Tehran, is anyone’s guess.

If that sounds familiar, it’s because the US had similarly set a “final deadline” for Maliki’s withdrawal last weekend, though that deadline passed with little visible consequence and just more US complaining about Maliki.

With just 24 hours left, the latest deadline doesn’t seem like it’s going to change anything either, with the Framework saying they don’t intend to allow the US to decide who gets to be Iraq’s prime minister.

Furthermore, the indication is that they don’t even intend to hold another meeting on the premiership until next week, well after this deadline will have already passed.

There does not appear to be any other serious candidate being put forward by any part of the Framework, which is the largest bloc in Iraq’s deeply divided parliament.

Maliki served as Prime Minister of Iraq from 2006 through 2014. President Trump has insisted he has “insane policies and ideologies” and cannot be allowed to return to office, though again there are no other serious candidates within the Framework who have come forward to replace him with.

Maliki has sought to return to office for years and though his State of Law Party only won about 6% of the seats in last year’s election, he has the support of Kurdish factions, and the largest party within the Framework, that of current Prime Minister Mohammed al-Sudani, has appeared to accept Maliki’s candidacy after Sudani said he doesn’t intend to serve another term.

It’s a recurring theme in Iraq that after their elections forming a coalition government takes quite some time and a lot of negotiation.

🚨 URGENT: US Envoy Tom Barrack delivers face-to-face ULTIMATUM to al-Maliki — WITHDRAW your PM bid by Monday & take the GOLDEN TICKET: safe EXIT + personal IMMUNITY deal!
Or face CRIPPLING sanctions!
Who blinks — Maliki, the Framework, or Washington? 🇮🇶⚔️🇺🇸🔥#Iraq #Iran #Trump pic.twitter.com/8h3RqoOG2u

— Iraqi OSINT (@IraqiOsint) February 27, 2026

Coming up with anyone even palatable to enough of the parties to form the government can be a challenge, and that’s why even if the blocs don’t want to anger the US, they’re unlikely to cast off a candidate that has any chance of forming a government without any clarity about an alternate choice.

Summary: Currently, the biggest question is where’s the Ayatollah? Iran state TV teased an imminent speech to address the nation after the major US-Israeli attack, and in the wake of Iran’s retaliation on US regional bases – and the Gulf countries hosting them. There were earlier rumors that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed, but nothing is verifiable. He could be deep in a hidden underground bunker, at a command post, known only by his closest IRGC associates. There are also unverified reports that members of his own family may have been killed. Meanwhile in the US some Democratic Congressional leaders are demanding an immediate War Powers vote, and condemn the Trump-ordered attack as an unconstitutional war on a foreign nation which has not directly attacked the US. President Trump has in the late afternoon hours posted a message declaring that Khamenei is dead – though it remains that the Iranians have not said this. Instead, adding to the mystery, Khamenei’s X account has posted something ambiguous just after Trump’s statement. Trump has further vowed the bombing will continue:

• US official confirms to Fox that US believes Khamenei and 5-10 top Iranian leaders killed in initial Israeli strike on compound; agree with Israel’s intelligence assessment.

• No U.S. casualties reported, 12 hours after Washington launched Operation Epic Fury alongside Israel, targeting Iran’s security and military infrastructure, CENTCOM says. Al Jazeera reporting over 200 killed in Iran. Likely the death toll will climb.

• AFP: Two Israeli TV networks report photo of Khamenei’s body shown to Trump, Netanyahu

• Israeli ambassador to Washington Yechiel Leiter told U.S. officials that Iran’s supreme leader Ali Khamenei has been killed in the Israeli strike on his compound, a source with knowledge said (Axios).

• Jerusalem Post (unconfirmed): Israeli officials informed Khamenei assassinated in Iran strike, body said to be found in rubble. Iranian authorities themselves have not said this, and an information block/fog of war inside Iran persists.

• Israeli official says Khamenei killed; Trump: Regime really didn’t want a deal

• PressTV: The Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) has announced that it destroyed a sophisticated American radar system stationed in Qatar as part of its retaliatory attacks targeting US bases and assets in the region.

• “I can go long and take over the whole thing, or end it in two or three days and tell the Iranians: ‘See you again in a few years if you start rebuilding [your nuclear and missile programs],” Trump said in a five-minute phone interview from Mar-a-Lago (Axios).

• Trump calls for regime change. Will he commit ground troops to do it? Meanwhile Netanyahu addresses Iranian people, claiming “help has arrived.”

• Iran signals could be ready for de-escalation after regional missile barrage: Tehran indicates it does not want further escalation following retaliatory missile strikes on at least five countries, including Israel. Iranian state TV cancels a long-promised speech by Ayatollah Khamenei. An Israeli official says regime leaders cannot currently locate him. US strikes appear to have continued in waves on Saturday.

• Iran targets US military sites, not US mainland: Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi tells NBC News that Iran is striking US military facilities in the region, not “Americans in their land,” and says Tehran is ready to talk once US-Israeli strikes stop. He states Khamenei is alive “as far as I know” and confirms two commanders were killed but senior leadership remains in place.

• Senior Iranian commanders reported killed: Reuters cites sources saying Defense Minister Amir Nasirzadeh and IRGC commander Mohammed Pakpour were killed in Israeli strikes.

• Israeli strike allegedly hit girls’ elementary school in southern Iran: An airstrike in Minab, Hormozgan province, struck a primary school for girls, killing dozens, according to state media, underscoring the likely mounting civilian toll from the large-scale US-Israeli bombardment of Iran.

• Regional panic and military buildup: Gulf residents rush to stockpile supplies; the UAE reassures the public about reserves. The UK confirms aircraft are supporting US-Israeli operations.

• Operation Epic Fury expands: The US-Israeli campaign continues striking Iranian military infrastructure, senior leaders, and high-value targets across multiple cities. Satellite imagery shows severe damage to Khamenei’s compound in Tehran; his whereabouts remain unclear.

• Trump announced start of “major combat operations”: In an eight-minute address, President Trump says the US is conducting a “massive and ongoing operation” to destroy Iran’s missile capabilities and demands Iranian forces surrender or face “certain death.”

• Iran further threatens regional bases: Iranian Armed Forces spokesman Gen. Abolfazl Shekarchi warns that any regional base used by the US or Israel will be targeted. Reports emerge of Iranian retaliatory strikes across the Middle East.

• Iran launches regional retaliation: Tehran fires missiles at Israel and US-linked assets in Qatar, UAE, Kuwait, Bahrain, Syria, Jordan, and Iraq. Explosions hit Tehran and other Iranian cities. Multiple countries close their airspace.

• Coordinated US-Israel strikes dubbed ‘Operation Epic Fury’: Washington and Tel Aviv launch joint attacks on Iranian targets after months of planning, following failed indirect nuclear talks. Trump frames the operation as eliminating “imminent threats” and calls on Iranians to “take over your government.”

* * *

Update (10:00ET): Will the chaos be contained, after Iran unleashed retaliatory missiles on at least five regional countries, including Israel? Iran is quickly signaling that it’s not willing to escalate this further, hoping for a halt in the US-Israeli operation:

Iran is attacking U.S. military facilities in the Middle East region and not “Americans in their land,” Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said in his exclusive interview with NBC News.

He added that Tehran was interested in de-escalation and ready to talk once the joint U.S.-Israeli strikes end.

Amid rumors that Ayatollah Ali Khamenei could be dead, after direct strikes on his main headquarters in the capital, Araghchi said that he is still alive “as far as I know.”

Araghchi is directly signaling the American side via an exclusive interview with NBC News. He spoke live from Tehran Saturday morning. He acknowledged that “two commanders had died but senior officials in the regime had survived including the head of the judiciary and the parliament speaker.”

“All high ranking officials are alive,” he said. “So everybody is now in its position, and we are handling this situation, and everything is fine.” 

Iranian Defense Minister Amir Nasirzadeh and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commander Mohammed Pakpour were killed in Israeli strikes, according to two sources briefed on Israel’s military operations and one regional source, cited in Reuters.

As for finding the Ayatollah, he is probably deep in a hidden underground bunker that no one but his closest IRGC advisers know about. Americans need to be reminded that this is a country of over 90 million people and geographically is the size of half the European continent.

Bloomberg writes on the prospect of full regime change, which would likely require US boots on the ground:

Conflicting reports are circulating about who in Iran was targeted and whether the attacks were successful. If senior Iranian officials were indeed killed, that would be significant. But it doesn’t mean the end of the Islamic Republic.

While the Supreme Leader is the ultimate decision-maker, he isn’t the only one, and succession planning has been underway for years. Similarly, the Revolutionary Guards are deeply embedded across political, economic, and security sectors. Targeting their leadership would weaken them, but it wouldn’t dismantle the organization altogether.

Gulf populations in panic mode, via Bloomberg:

In Dubai, some delivery services have been suspended as people flood supermarkets to buy water and other food essentials. Stockpiling prompted UAE authorities to issue a statement to reassure residents and the millions of expatriates that there is ample supply.

The UAE said its strategic reserve of essential commodities is “robust, comprehensive and diversified and asked people to refrain from stockpiling.

The UK has meanwhile confirmed that it has planes in the air supporting the US-Israeli operation.

* * *

Update (0845ET):

Iranian military officials said they would deliver a “historic lesson” to Israel and the U.S. in response to the strikes, as Operation Epic Fury, the U.S.-Israeli campaign designated by the Department of War, continues to hit military infrastructure, top army leaders, and other high-value targets across multiple Iranian cities.

Earlier footage allegedly showed the Iranian supreme leader’s compound being struck by what appeared to be U.S. or Israeli missiles or air-delivered munitions.

New Airbus satellite imagery reportedly shows the compound in Tehran sustained severe damage; it remains unclear whether Ayatollah Khamenei was inside at the time of the strike.

Shortly after Operation Epic Fury began, President Trump announced in an eight-minute video on Truth Social that “major combat operations” had begun.

“The United States military is undertaking a massive and ongoing operation to prevent this very wicked, radical dictatorship from threatening America and our core national security interests,” the president said. “We are going to destroy their missiles and raze their missile industry to the ground.”

Trump continued, “To the members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard, the armed forces, and all of the police, I say tonight that you must lay down your weapons and have complete immunity or, in the alternative, face certain death.”

Operation Epic Fury comes amid the U.S. building a massive military presence in the region (read report). Also, one day after indirect nuclear talks (read here) between the U.S. and Iran did not end so well, according to Trump.

U.S. officials told NBC reporter Courtney Kube that Israel has targeted Iranian leaders, while the U.S. has targeted Iran’s ballistic missile and nuclear high-value facilities.

There are reports that IRGC Commander Mohammad Pakpour was killed by Israeli strikes.

According to assessments, Mohammad Pakpour, the Commander of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), has been eliminated by Israeli decapitation strikes on Tehran. pic.twitter.com/KpNyrNuWgh

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) February 28, 2026

Gen. Abolfazl Shekarchi, the spokesman for Iran’s Armed Forces, told state media that any military base used by the U.S. and Israel in the region will be targeted. There have already been reports of Iranian retaliatory strikes across the region.

Sources tell CNN that Operation Epic Fury was the result of “months of joint planning” and will involve several days of attacks.

*   *   * 

The U.S. and Israel have conducted coordinated strikes on Iranian targets, which President Trump described in an eight-minute video on Truth Social as the start of “major combat operations” aimed at defending the U.S. by “eliminating imminent threats from the Iranian regime.”

“The hour for your freedom is at hand,” President Trump told the Iranian people in the video. “When we’re finished, take over your government. It will be yours to take. This will be probably your only chance for generations.”

President Donald J. Trump on the United States military combat operations in Iran: pic.twitter.com/LimJmpLkgZ

— The White House (@WhiteHouse) February 28, 2026

President Trump is expected to address the American people on Saturday morning following the second U.S. strike on Iranian soil in less than a year. The first strike took place in June 2025, when U.S. stealth bombers dropped bombs on three nuclear sites inside Iran.

The focus on the Saturday morning strikes (Brent crude futures are closed), the president said, was to ensure Americans “will never be threatened by a nuclear-armed Iran.”

Bloomberg headline: Oil Tankers Avoiding Vital Hormuz Strait After US Bombs Iran

Oil Tankers Avoiding Vital Hormuz Strait After US Bombs Iran: BBG

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) February 28, 2026

In markets, with Brent crude futures closed, Bitcoin was hammered from the $65k level, down to the $63k level.

US and Israeli strikes on Iran come one day after the latest round of indirect nuclear talks between Iran and the US, about which the president said he was “not happy with the progress,” adding: “They don’t want to say the key words: ‘We’re not going to have a nuclear weapon.'”

A US official told CNN that the US strikes were focused on Iranian military targets but did not comment on the ongoing operation. Another official told the outlet that the objective of the strikes was to address the Iranian military threat. The first official said the US military had put countermeasures in place to protect its personnel in the region.

AP News reports:

The first strikes of the attack appeared to target the compound home to Iran’s 86-year-old Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in downtown Tehran. It wasn’t immediately clear if he was there at the time. Smoke could be seen rising from the Iranian capital.

JUST IN — 🇮🇷🇮🇱🇺🇸 The strike on the presidential palace in Tehran pic.twitter.com/YLY4ShMrUC

— UK Report (@UK_REPT) February 28, 2026

BREAKING:

Israel is currently striking Iran’s capital, Tehran. pic.twitter.com/xQ3lZSQm5h

— Globe Eye News (@GlobeEyeNews) February 28, 2026

Shortly after the strike, the US Department of Defense wrote on X, “Operation Epic Fury.” For context, last year’s strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities was “Operation Midnight Hammer.”

OPERATION EPIC FURY 🇺🇸

— Department of War 🇺🇸 (@DeptofWar) February 28, 2026

Iranian state-run media outlets Fars and IRNA reported strikes in Isfahan, Qom, Lorestan, Karaj, Kermanshah, and Tabriz, as well as in the capital, Tehran.

Israel described the strikes against Iran as “a broad, coordinated, and joint operation against the regime” that was planned for months.

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 U.S. Tomahawk cruise missiles flying over Iraq toward Iranpic.twitter.com/elRKAy7MK6 https://t.co/bJ3LEpDsMG

— Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal) February 28, 2026

Earlier, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in a recorded message that Israeli military action against Iran would be “much more powerful” than Israel’s 12-day operation against Tehran last year.

In response, Iran’s paramilitary Revolutionary Guard launched a wave of drones and missiles targeting Israel. There were other reports that the U.S. Navy’s 5th Fleet command center in the host nation, Bahrain, was targeted by Iranian missiles.

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 Iranian missile striking Bahrain.pic.twitter.com/e8mo4gEKKS https://t.co/x2AM1ErncS

— Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal) February 28, 2026

Other reports suggest Iran launched projectiles at US bases and targets beyond Bahrain, and also in Kuwait and Qatar.

Iran’s Foreign Ministry wrote on X, “The time has come to defend the homeland and confront the enemy’s military assault. Just as we were prepared for negotiations, we have been even more prepared for defense at all times. The armed forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran will decisively respond to the aggressors with full authority.”

*Developing…

Via Middle East Eye

At least 85 people, almost all of them young girls, have been killed in an air strike on a primary school in southern Iran, the Iranian judiciary said. The attack on Saturday morning hit Shajareh Tayyebeh schoolin the city of Minab, in Hormozgan province, as the United States and Israel began launching strikes on targets across Iran.

The victims were between seven and 12 years old, according to Iran’s Tasnim and Fars news agencies. A staff member at the Minab school, who asked not to be named, told Middle East Eye she remains in shock at the intensity of the attack. Iran’s foreign minister also featured the attack on social media.

Through tears, she said she used to watch the young girls playing at school every day. After today’s strikes, however, she saw their bodies lying on classroom benches and in different corners of the school.

She said she had stepped out of the school to take care of something when she suddenly heard a horrifying sound. Within seconds, a missile – or something like it – hit the school building. After hearing the blast, she ran back towards the school and was faced with a scene she says she would never forget. 

“I felt like I had gone mute. I couldn’t speak,” the staff member told MEE. “You could hear the sound of children crying and screaming.” When rescue teams arrived, she said, they began to understand the scale of the disaster.

“We still don’t know how many are under the rubble. Some are even saying more than 100. Some of these small children are severely injured. Their parents have come to the school, and this place has turned into a house of mourning.”

The air strike on the school left many inside the building trapped beneath the rubble. There were 170 female students at the school at the time of the attack. So far, at least 45 people have also been reported wounded.

Footage posted by Telegram accounts affiliated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps appeared to show people digging through the rubble.

Smoke could be seen rising from surrounding buildings, while a wrecked car lay in the street. People were heard screaming and wailing; others appeared to be in shock. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi denounced the attack on X and said the deaths of the children would “not go unanswered”.

“The destroyed building is a primary school for girls in the south of Iran. It was bombed in broad daylight, when packed with young pupils,” he wrote. “Dozens of innocent children have been murdered at this site alone.”

At least 70 people, including some 60 children, were killed when U.S. and Israeli strikes hit the Shajareh Tayyebeh girls’ elementary school in Minab, southern Iran, according to the Fars News.

The attack reportedly struck during school hours, with about 170 girls inside.… pic.twitter.com/G7dE0z660f

— Drop Site (@DropSiteNews) February 28, 2026

Country-wide attacks

US and Israeli strikes on Iran have also heavily targeted Tehran. Explosions echoed across the capital as Iranians set out for work on the first day of the week, before quickly spreading across the country.

Attacks were reported in a range of cities, including the holy city of Qom, as well as Karaj, Isfahan and Kermanshah. An overall death toll has not yet been released, but Reuters reported that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei had been moved to a “safe location”.

US President Donald Trump said the joint attacks were aimed at “eliminating imminent threats from the Iranian regime”.

“Short time ago, US military began major combat operation in Iran. Our objective is to defend the American people by eliminating threats from the Iranian regime,” he said. Trump also made a number of other statements and predictions without offering any concrete evidence, such as Washington’s refusal to allow Iran to obtain a nuclear weapon.

“We are going to annihilate their navy. We are going to ensure that the region’s ‘terrorist’ proxies can no longer destabilise the region or the world. “We will ensure that Iran does not obtain a nuclear weapon. It is a very simple message.” 

The DOE released a Notice of Funding Opportunity offering up to $171.5 million for next-generation geothermal field tests and resource exploration. 

The program targets field-scale demonstrations of enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) for electricity generation, along with drilling to characterize and confirm hydrothermal and next-gen prospects nationwide.

The funding splits into two initial open topics: up to $100 million for EGS field tests and $71.5 million for exploratory drilling. Letters of intent are due March 27, with full applications due April 30. The move directly supports President Trump’s Executive Order “Unleashing American Energy,” according to the agency.

Geothermal currently supplies roughly 4 GW of U.S. capacity, but represents only about 0.3% of total power generation. DOE estimates the resource base could support 300 GW or more by 2050 with technology improvements, delivering firm, 24/7 baseload power that complements intermittent renewables and meets rising demand from data centers and AI infrastructure.

Recent studies show that some of the best locations in the United States for new geothermal sites are in the western part of the country and some of the southern states. 

Assistant Secretary Kyle Haustveit of the Office of Hydrocarbons and Geothermal Energy stated the initiative will “directly support our commitments to advance energy addition, reduce energy costs for American families and businesses, and unleash American energy dominance and innovation.”

One of the only pure-play publicly traded geothermal companies is Ormat Technologies (ORA), which develops, owns, and operates geothermal power plants primarily in the U.S. and internationally. The company has recently expanded via long-term power purchase agreements with data-center operators (Google), underscoring commercial interest in reliable geothermal supply.

Some Democratic appropriators are pitching a fit, noting the $146.5 million tranche exceeds the $118 million Congress appropriated for geothermal in FY2025 and requesting further review. Proponents counter that successful pilots could unlock far larger private investment and help diversify the grid beyond wind, solar, and gas.

Via The Daily Signal,

This is a lightly edited transcript of today’s video from Daily Signal Senior Contributor Victor Davis Hanson. 

Susan Rice, the former U.N. ambassador under the Obama administration, national security adviser, and also served in various capacities with former President Joe Biden, gave an interview on a podcast with Preet Bharara. He is that very liberal federal prosecutor that developed quite a name for himself in New York, going after, I think, targeted a lot of people based on their politics.

But nonetheless, it was one of the strangest interviews because she flat out, candidly, with no reservations, sent a message to people who were conservative, Republican, or Trump supporters, and she used “Game of Thrones” imagery. “You’ve taken the need of [President] Donald Trump. You have allowed him to bully you.”

She was talking about the so-called elites in the academic world, in the corporate world, in the institutional world. “And we’re not going to forget,” she says, “that you did that. And you better have your documents ready because when we come back into power, we’re going to … ” And the implication was: take you to court, make you pay, shake you.

I don’t know what she was talking about, but it was a direct threat.

But here’s what’s strange about it: Start with Susan Rice herself.

If you look back through her latter years with the Obama administration, it was nothing but a complete disaster.

She was the one that, you remember, that the CIA and the Obama administration wheeled out on a Sunday afternoon to explain the Benghazi attack that killed the four Americans at the annex and the consulate.

Five times she told the American people that those attacks were spontaneous, and they were because of some right-wing Coptic video maker who caused it all. That was not true.

That was a preplanned, either an al-Qaeda or ISIS or some type of radical Islamic preplanned assault.

People knew what they were doing. They were well armed. They were well organized.

Why did she go out five times and mislead the American people?

Because the Obama administration had been warned prior that their security was too lax and they did not want to give the impression that that attack was preventable, which it was.

She was the one that also assured us, Americans, that when former President Barack Obama issued those red lines and said if Bashar al-Assad and his Syrian forces move WMD around or still have it, that’s going to be intolerable, i.e., I’m going to take it out.

When they didn’t do that and they backed out, and we knew they had it, she lied to the American people and said, essentially, that they no longer had WMD.

Remember also she wrote, just wrapping up her career, she wrote a little memo to herself in the last weeks of the Obama administration about Michael Flynn. She went to a meeting, and it was pretty clear in that meeting they had planned to subvert the incoming administration with the false narrative of Russian collusion and that somehow Mike Flynn, the national security adviser-designate, had been colluding with the Russians, but that was not true.

But then she wrote a fake memo to herself suggesting that they hadn’t really done that, that it was all up and up. And then, of course, she and others had requested the unmasking of people related with Trump in otherwise confidential files. So, she doesn’t have a good record.

That’s why she didn’t have a high-profile position in the Biden administration.

But there is also some real problems with what she said. She never said to corporate America, to the academic world, to the institutional world, to the political world what they had done wrong. She just said, “We’re going to come back. People don’t like Trump. It’s our turn to come back. We’re not going to play by the old rules. No, no, no. We’re going to be tough. You better get your … ”

Well, what had they done? What had they done? If she’s implying they let people off, or they laid people off that were associated with DEI, that was in accordance with the Supreme Court ruling barring race-based preferences in academic life.

If she means that Donald Trump does not have the authority to issue an executive order stopping DEI, the whole idea of executive orders goes back to the beginning, almost to the republic.

But more importantly, Barack Obama was the one who said, “I have a pen and I have a phone and I’m going to use it.” And that’s when he lost control of Congress and he issued, up until that time, almost the greatest number of executive orders.

So, if she’s not going to tell us that anybody committed a felony or misdemeanor, and yet she’s going to punish them, that doesn’t sound too legitimate.

How does she know, secondly, that she’s going to come back into power? The polls are very volatile. Donald Trump has made, as we’ve talked before, a vast investment in the economy. Inflation is down, unemployment is down, gross domestic product is solid. Foreign investment is at record levels. So is energy production.

And when the “Big, Beautiful Bill” is fully enacted and filters its way through the economy, you’re going to see enormous stimuli given reductions in the tax code, reductions in the deductions that you have to make for the IRS, no tax on tips, etc.

It’s going to have an enormous effect, and it’s going to come into effect before the midterms.

We don’t know what the world is going to look like abroad in Ukraine, in Cuba, in Iran. It may be that Donald Trump is able to solve two or three or all of them. November’s a long way away, so I wouldn’t be so sure, Susan Rice, that you will win the November elections, much less, if you are alluding, as I think you were, to 2028.

If you heard Marco Rubio’s speech to the Munich Security Conference and you’ve seen JD Vance in the 2024 election take down almost every hostile reporter that interviewed him, they’re going to be a very formidable team.

And I don’t see anything quite like that with Gavin Newsom.

I don’t see it with AOC, especially after her performance at the Munich Security Conference.

I don’t think Pete Buttigieg is a viable candidate.

So, we’ve seen Kamala Harris, very uninspiring.

Maybe Josh Shapiro. But given the antisemitic nature of the new Democratic Socialist Party, I doubt, as we saw with the vice-presidential selection in 2024, I doubt that he would have a chance to be the nominee of the new Democratic Party.

And finally, when you talk about retribution, where have you been, Susan Rice?

Who were the people who tried to take Donald Trump off 25, 26 state ballots … unprecedented? Who were the people who for the first time in history impeached a president twice? Who were the people who tried him as a private citizen when he was out of office in the Senate? Tried to convict him.

Who were the people behind the Letitia James frivolous lawsuit that tried to bankrupt him with almost a $500 million fine because he took a loan out with a Deutsche Bank and they claimed that he overvalued the assets, which the Deutsche Bank said he didn’t? That he paid the interest on time to the profit of the bank who had no complaint?

Who was Alvin Bragg trying to shoehorn a federal offense onto a state law and said that Donald Trump’s non-disclosure with Stormy Daniels was a federal campaign violation? Who were the people behind the crazy E. Jean Carroll persecution lawsuit that may have cost Donald Trump $90 million?

Who were the people behind Jack Smith, who was knee deep along with the FBI and knew about that with Merrick Garland, the raiding, the Mar-a-Lago … the home of Donald Trump?

And the idea that Donald Trump violated some confidential agreement with the government when an archival dispute when Joe Biden had taken materials that were confidential and classified from his days in the Senate in three or four, much less secure, places?

Who’s behind all that? Who’s behind Fani Willis when a person calls the registrar and says, “I know there’s votes there, find them,” as a lot of candidates do to every registrar when they feel that they’re not adequately looking for votes that have been cast. There was a lot of things to be suspicious about in Georgia and turned that into a felony.

All of those prosecutors were politically minded, biased, and ultimately found themselves in their own ethical dilemmas. But who did that? My point is, Susan Rice, your party has already taken out retribution. You were the ones that politicized the Department of Justice. You were the ones, going back to 2015 and ’16 with Russian collusion, 2020 with laptop disinformation.

Your entire career of the Democratic Party—your career, Hillary Clinton’s career, Barack Obama—has been to destroy Donald Trump. So, we don’t need lectures on retribution. You’ve already tried to practice retribution against Trump. And I don’t think you’re going to be in a position of power necessarily in the Congress in 2026, and I have a pretty good idea you won’t come back to power in 2028.

But otherwise, you really displayed your true nature and put your cards on the table. And I don’t think that your opponents are going be naive once they understand what your true intentions are, which are completely vengeful and incoherent.

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Planned demonstrations branded “Hands Off Iran” or “Stop The War On Iran” are scheduled to take place this afternoon in major cities across the U.S. From New York to Los Angeles, left-wing organizers have circulated digital flyers, coordinated social media blasts, and activated email lists urging supporters to mobilize within hours of the announcement. This activation alert for the protest-industrial complex occurred shortly after the Department of War’s “Operation Epic Furry” began in Iran.

To the average person, this afternoon’s protests may look like a groundswell of outrage over the U.S. strikes on Iran, especially given that the Trump administration campaigned on no new foreign wars. But the speed, uniform messaging, and coordinated national footprint suggest something highly more organized – and familiar for readers, as we’ve diligently followed the activities of the protest-industrial complex.

This is the same mobilization network that has repeatedly demonstrated its ability to move tens of thousands of social justice warriors into the streets in under 12 hours.

Earlier this year, that same protest infrastructure powered nationwide pro-Maduro demonstrations almost immediately after developments in Venezuela made national headlines. In the months prior, overlapping coalitions were instrumental in organizing the anti-Israel encampments at Columbia University and other campuses, as well as anti-ICE demonstrations in Los Angeles and other sanctuary cities. The causes shift. The slogans change. The logistical infrastructure – or the machine that makes this spark – remains the same.

What we are witnessing is not a loose collection of anti-war activists or 1970s-style hippies responding independently to global events. It is a coordinated ecosystem of dark-money funded nonprofits, advocacy groups, campus organizations, and ideological networks that can rapidly repurpose whatever geopolitical flashpoint dominates the news cycle. From the George Floyd riots to pro-Palestine protests to anti-Tesla protests to anti-Trump protests and anti-Elon Musk protests to anti-DOGE protests to anti-ICE protests/riots, these movements are not dedicated to a single issue. They are part of omni-cause mobilizers, sowing chaos deep within the nation’s core.

Whether the banner reads “Free Palestine,” “Hands Off Venezuela,” “Abolish ICE,” or now “Hands Off Iran,” the same names frequently appear on sponsorship lists. The same fiscal sponsors provide infrastructure. The same activist pipelines appear.

This brings us to far-left billionaire Neville Roy Singham, whom The New York Times recently described as “known as a socialist benefactor of far-left causes” and as someone who “works closely with the Chinese government media machine and is financing its propaganda worldwide.”

Singham’s network, shortly after Operation Epic Furry began, announced on X “New York City Emergency Protest” to “Stop The war On Iran.”  

“The U.S. and Israel are carrying out an unprovoked, illegal bombing campaign on Iran. This war serves no one but a tiny elite and oil executives and is a continuation of more than two years of genocide in Palestine and US-Israeli aggressions throught the region,” the People’s Forum, a Manhattan far-left non-profit also linked to Singham, wrote on X.

Other left-wing groups on the flyer tied to Singham’s network include the ANSWER Coalition and CODEPINK. Also on the list are the Democratic Socialists of America, American Muslims for Palestine, the National Iranian American Council, the Palestinian Youth Movement, Black Alliance for Peace, and 50501.

🚨 EMERGENCY DAY OF ACTION IN NYC TO STOP THE WAR WITH IRAN: TODAY, 2/28 at 2PM in Times Square

The U.S. and Israel are carrying out an unprovoked, illegal bombing campaign on Iran. This war serves no one but a tiny elite and oil executives and is a continuation of more than two… pic.twitter.com/iG3mwHTOLb

— The People’s Forum (@PeoplesForumNYC) February 28, 2026

The Network Contagion Research Institute published a recent note stating, “Singham and his wife Jodie Evans, a power couple within the global far-left movement with close ties to the CCP.” Evans is the co-founder of CodePink.

And there’s this. 

🚨Cellphone Locations Link Far-Left Protest Orgs to Iran & China

Phones visiting the ANSWER Coalition and Party for Socialism and Liberation (PSL) also visited Iran and the Chinese consulate

These groups are
-central to street resistance
-allegedly funded by a CCP propagandist pic.twitter.com/3rlhTC8vEB

— Oversight Project (@ItsYourGov) June 24, 2025

The same playbook by the protest industrial complex, surrounded by Singham’s network, was used shortly after the U.S. captured Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro:

• Marxist Network Behind Pro-Maduro, Anti-ICE Protests Faces Congressional Scrutiny

This pattern reflects something more strategic than traditional protest politics. It resembles what Seamus Bruner of the Government Accountability Institute pointed out during a recent congressional oversight hearing: $60 million in dark money that flowed into NGOs tied to Minnesota protests. Translation: highly organized. 

A witness at my hearing CONFIRMED that at least $60 million in dark money is funding the Minnesota protests

Who is that money coming from?

Fourteen groups, including the Soros network pic.twitter.com/iLCV0mrSgR

— Josh Hawley (@HawleyMO) February 12, 2026

Bruner explained to Trump last fall during a roundtable on ANTIFA about more than $100 million of dark money that flowed into NGOs to sow chaos nationwide.

Musk Says “Far More Than $100 Million” U.S. Taxpayer Funds Funneled Into NGOs Fueling Chaos; Trump Briefed On Dark-Money Networks https://t.co/xGr6Z4ruEN

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) October 9, 2025

Today, influence operations do not necessarily look like espionage movie thrillers. They look like nonprofits. They look like digital organizing toolkits. They look like rapid-response coalitions capable of shaping media narratives and sentiment polls before most Americans have even processed the event.

Why would the China-linked Singham network be so focused on sparking U.S. protests just hours after the developments in Venezuela and, as we are now learning, the earlier strike on Iran? The answer may be oil: just as with Venezuelan flows, China now faces the risk of losing another heavily discounted crude oil stream, this time from Iran. 

China purchased 1.38m bpd of Iranian oil last year, on average. This campaign will hurt their access to discounted shorthaul barrels, and therefore their energy security. pic.twitter.com/tJATu2nUQF

— Ed Finley–Richardson (@ed_fin) February 28, 2026

Recall that The People’s Forum’s X post immediately pointed out the oil issue.

That is because China is likely infuriated that its access to cheap oil flows may be coming to an end. As the NYT noted, Singham “works closely with the Chinese government media machine to finance propaganda worldwide.” That may help explain why Singham-linked nonprofits are front and center in organizing protests aimed at shaping U.S. sentiment whenever Trump takes steps that pressure China. We saw it with Venezula, now Iran…