Hasan Piker Says Quiet Part Out Loud, Maps Radical Left NGO Network To China-Based Marxist Financier
Far-left Turkish-American millionaire and Twitch streamer Hasan Piker appears to have committed an operational-security mistake by publicly identifying American Marxist tech financier Neville Roy Singham, who has reportedly been living in China and has been linked by The New York Times to CCP-aligned propaganda networks, as a major financier of pro-Marxist revolutionary NGOs operating inside the U.S.
On Sunday, Piker discussed the U.S. Treasury’s “Requests for Information” subpoena related to his “humanitarian trip” to Cuba with pro-China CodePink cofounder Susan Medea Benjamin. That story was first published by Fox News’ lead NGO investigator, Asra Nomani, on Saturday.
Piker pointed out that the Treasury likely has a broader target, is “probably Singham” and “his operation,” naming PSL (Party for Socialism and Liberation), ANSWER Coalition, Code Pink, and “anything that he has ever financed.”
He then acknowledged that Roy Singham lives in China and has been “a funding vehicle” for political movements and activism in the U.S.
We’re sure Singham network comrades are absolutely furious with Piker because, as NGO investigator Stu Smith wrote on X, “Hasan didn’t refute the network. He mapped it.”
🚨 Hasan Names Singham, PSL, ANSWER, and Code Pink in One Breath
On stream today, Hasan Piker discussed the reported Treasury scrutiny and said the broader target is “probably Singham” and “his operation,” naming PSL (Party for Socialism and Liberation), ANSWER Coalition, Code… pic.twitter.com/0zpYhJbPV2
Piker’s disclosure of Singham on a livestream is significant because it appears to validate long-standing concerns from congressional, Treasury, and State Department investigators that the Singham-funded nonprofit network is not only engaged in charitable work but is also a far-left agitation network financed by Singham in China.
Timing here is also important because federal investigators have been observing and tracking nonprofit funding flows of NGOs, political activists, and foreign-linked networks used as front groups by hostile nations for statecraft operations to destabilize the US from within.
We’ve been early to the story of some nonprofits used as adversarial influence operations, as noted last year:
🚨This story is insane. Activist groups are meeting inside a union hall with representatives of foreign governments to receive direction on what to protest about and what legislation they want supported.
— 🇺🇸 Jason Curtis Anderson (@JCAndersonNYC) May 26, 2026
Piker claims the investigation into his Cuba trip is the government’s attempt to silence his free speech, but there’s a reason the mainstream press has not rushed to defend him as a free-speech martyr: it is well established that foreign influence operations can operate under the cover of humanitarian work. This is a dirty secret that governments around the world know all too well.
Reuters dropped another misleading article today – this time attempting to manufacture drama between the Pentagon and SpaceX over Starlink usage during the Iran conflict.
The story framed routine commercial contract discussions and terms-of-service enforcement as major “tensions” and growing Pentagon reliance giving Elon Musk undue leverage.
Reuters’ version of events was that SpaceX used wartime urgency to raise the price of Starlink connections on U.S. drones from roughly $5,000 to $25,000 per terminal, forcing the Pentagon to pay up while exposing how dependent the military has become on Musk-controlled infrastructure.
The reality, according to Musk, is that the dispute centered on a more basic issue: a drone manufacturer or contractor allegedly used civilian Starlink terminals on military weapon systems, including drones, in violation of Starlink’s commercial terms of service, when the proper government and defense product is Starshield. In other words, Reuters framed the episode as a price-gouging and leverage story, while SpaceX and the Pentagon framed it as a contract-compliance story involving the misuse of civilian satellite service for weapons applications.
Reuters article is false. They made improper use of the Starlink civilian system for military purposes. Direct violation of terms of service.
Musk was clear in multiple posts that this is a longstanding policy. Commercial Starlink is not authorized for weapons applications and is shut down when discovered.
It is a violation of commercial Starlink terms of service to use the terminal for weapon systems. This applies to all users and is shut down when discovered.
There is a separate network called Starshield, which is operated by the US government. This is not under SpaceX control.
The Fake News media has the story wrong, again. @SpaceX remains a strong and valued partner to the Department of War.
The claims in this article are simply not based in reality and do not reflect the close, effective collaboration between our teams. https://t.co/872Maa5FX2
Pentagon officials have emphasized the strong partnership with SpaceX, which provides critical capabilities through its Starshield military variant. Starshield terminals are designed for secure government and defense use, connecting to both commercial and dedicated secure constellations.
The Reuters piece, of course, relied on anonymous sources and selectively presented pricing discussions while ignoring the core issue of contract compliance. Musk has consistently maintained that commercial Starlink terms prohibit weaponization, a point he has reiterated across multiple conflicts.
All gun owners fully understand the vital importance of preserving the Second Amendment. But right behind that Constitutional Amendment in importance is the need to uphold the Fourth Amendment’s protection against unreasonable searches and seizures.
After all, without robust Fourth Amendment rights, we will never have much of a Second Amendment right. For that reason, both Gun Owners of America and Gun Owners Foundation have regularly filed amicus briefs to guard against erosion of Fourth Amendment rights. We recently filed such an amicus brief in the U.S. Supreme Court, asking the High Court to ensure that law enforcement not abuse the investigative technique known as “knock and talk.”
As more and more states seek to ban more and more classes of previously legal firearms, gun confiscation has become an ever-greater threat. Historically, the Fourth Amendment’s protections have been greatest when applied to the home, which also happens to be where most guns are kept. The Supreme Court has discussed the right of a man to retreat into his own home and there be free from unreasonable governmental intrusion.
However, the courts have recognized that police have the right to “knock” on the door of your home, and “talk” to you – if you agree to speak. In Florida v. Jardines, 569 U.S. 1 (2013), the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that all visitors – including the police – have an “implicit license” to “[i] approach the home by the front path, [ii] knock promptly, [iii] wait briefly to be received, and then (absent invitation to linger longer) [iv] leave.” That rule seems entirely reasonable – but it is astonishing how police have come to abuse that “implicit license.”
In a recently decided case from North Carolina, State v. Reel, 297 N.C. App. 205 (N.C. Ct. App. 2024), the police broke every one of the rules, but the search was upheld. The officers suspected drug dealing was going on at a house, so they parked on a side street and crossed the defendant’s side yard – not the front yard. They followed a visitor to the front door, and when the defendant opened the door for the visitor, tried to force their way in behind her. The police never actually knocked. And, they never actually talked – except to demand the door be opened so they could rush in, claiming to have smelled marijuana. When the defendant refused and shut the door, another officer kicked in the door, searching for and seizing drugs. Thus, “knock and talk” was used as a pretext to conduct a warrantless search and seizure in a home. Nevertheless, North Carolina’s two highest courts approved.
GOA’s amicus brief urged the U.S. Supreme Court to impose a “bright-line” rule for law enforcement, so officers would know their limits, and judges would have a clear rule to enforce. We argue that since the “implied license” was based on the fact that any visitor – such as trick-or-treaters or girl scouts – to a house could “knock and talk,” the police could do the same. So we took that justification and suggested it be made the rule – a clear limitation on what the police could do. We proposed the rule to be:
The right of a police officer to conduct a “knock-and-talk” is no greater than a Girl Scout has to approach a house to sell cookies.
Since a Girl Scout cannot walk around your house to the back yard to the back door, neither can the police. Since a Girl Scout cannot come to your house in the middle of the night, neither can uninvited police. No peering through windows. No forcible entry. No hanging around without invitation from the occupant. No repeated trips back to harass the occupant. No surveillance devices. And, the occupant must have the right to refuse to talk, and to revoke the “implied license” for the police to remain and talk whenever he chooses.
The police have a tough enough job. Fuzzy rules of procedure not only jeopardizes the peoples’ liberties, but also law enforcement safety.
Gun owners must be especially vigilant where Fourth Amendment rights are concerned, because the threat of warrantless police sweeps to take guns from law-abiding citizens is not merely theoretical. Not long ago, Texas politician Beto O’Rourke boldly claimed: “Hell yes, we’re going to take your AR-15, your AK-47, and we’re not going to allow it to be used against your fellow Americans anymore.” And the anti-gunners seem to get far more militant every year. Thus, any weakening of the Fourth Amendment jeopardizes the Second Amendment.
GOA will always lead the fight to defend the “right to keep and bear arms,” as well as those other constitutional rights essential to protect guns, and that most definitely includes the Fourth Amendment.
John Velleco is the Executive Vice President of Gun Owners of America.
Lavrov Warns Rubio: Get Diplomats & Americans Out Of Kiev Ahead Of ‘Systematic Strikes’
Russia has again warned Washington to evacuate embassy staff in Kiev as it prepares to launch “systematic strikes” against the Ukrainian capital, in apparent retribution for last week’s deadly Ukrainian drone attackon a college dorm in Starobelsk, in Russian-controlled Luhansk Oblast.
It is further and more broadly warning all foreign persons to exit the Ukrainian capital, which has already been getting pounded at various intervals, stretching back days. Russia’s foreign ministry slammed the college dorm attack, which killed and wounded dozens – the “last straw” and that the military will initiate “systematic strikes” on assorted targets across the Ukrainian capital from now on.
The statement condemned the Zelensky government, which “deliberately targets civilians and does not hesitate to murder children in cold blood” – and warned that serious escalation is imminent.
“This was the last straw. Under these circumstances, the Russian Armed Forces will be launching systematic strikes against the Ukrainian military-industrial complex in Kiev, including locations where UAVs are designed, manufactured, programmed, and prepared for use,” the ministry said.
The Russian military will no go after “decision-making centers and command posts” – the statement featured in state media continued.
In Kiev, city residents and bystanders must stay away from the “military and administrative infrastructure facilities of the Zelensky regime” – the statement additionally warned.
Most significantly, the Kremlin didn’t just stop at this general public announcement, but directly notified the US State Department and Secretary of State Marco Rubio himself:
Russia said on Tuesday its government has warned U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio to evacuate diplomats and American citizens from Kyiv, as Moscow plots fresh strikes on the Ukrainian capital.
Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov “officially informed” Washington that Russia would be launching “systematic and consistent strikes” against Ukrainian military facilities and what Moscow called “decision-making centers,” in a call with Rubio on Monday, according to the Russian government.
…The call came after the Russian government issued a statement urging foreign citizens, diplomatic personnel, and international organizations to leave Kyiv, warning that it was preparing to target the capital, with a focus on facilities for designing, manufacturing, and programming drones.
At this moment, there’s been little or nothing in the way of any official White House condemnation of the imminent new attacks on the Ukrainian capital.
⚡️A Ukrainian surface-to-air missile system intercepts and destroys a Russian Kh-101 cruise missile over Kyiv this weekend. pic.twitter.com/5T1FmbIDeF
The fact that Lavrov so bluntly informed his American counterpart is somewhat unprecedented, even after over four years of war. Russia seems to be stating ahead of time that if there’s ‘collateral damage’ against foreign embassies or consulates, that it cannot be blamed.
NYC Mayor Mamdani’s Housing Plan Sparks Property-Rights Alarm Over Forced Transfers To Nonprofits
Mamdani Releases “Block by Block: The Housing Plan for A New Era”
NYC socialist Mayor Zohran Mamdani released “Block by Block: The Housing Plan for a New Era,” which presents a sweeping, deeply troubling blueprint to tackle the metro area’s deepening housing crisis.
Mamdani told the crowd:
When necessary, we will take aggressive legal action to remove negligent owners and property managers. And for buildings that have suffered chronic neglect, we work to transfer ownership to responsible stewards. Stewards include community land trusts, nonprofits, or even the tenants themselves.
IT BEGINS…
NYC Mayor Zohran Mamdani unveils plan to “transfer ownership” from landlords to “the community” pic.twitter.com/uybGFPk5eD
X user Difficult Froyo outlined what he described as the obvious playbook by the socialist mayor:
Rent control so landlords cannot raise rent to properly maintain the property. NYC takes the property and gives it to his political friends that donate to him. This is all going to be a theft scheme.
“Insane. If this isn’t communism, I don’t know what is. Has America really reached the point of communism?”
Mamdani’s backdoor property-seizure strategy will likely spook lenders, insurers, and small landlords. That’s because it caps landlord income, allows residential buildings to become distressed, then uses the city’s enforcement to push properties into nonprofit, community land trust, or tenant ownership.
The carveout that Mamdani has to allow one-time rent hikes on certain vacant units already shows that Mamdani’s team understands that a rent freeze creates financial stress for some affordable-housing owners.
Ahead Of Speech: Mamdani To Carve Out Struggling NYC Landlords From Rent Freeze Experiment
NYC socialist Mayor Zohran Mamdani is expected to announce on Tuesday that certain distressed landlords will be excluded from his proposed rent freeze, offering relief to apartment owners squeezed by debt, rising insurance costs, utilities, and repair bills in the increasingly unaffordable metro area.
Mamdani is expected to make the announcement at Powerhouse Arts in Gowanus, Brooklyn, where he will unveil a plan that would allow eligible owners of apartments financed or regulated by city housing agencies to impose a one-time rent increase on vacant units, even if a broader rent freeze is enacted later this year, according to The Wall Street Journal.
The 34-year-old socialist campaigned on the promise of free bus rides and government-run grocery stores, as well as freezing rents on the city’s nearly one million rent-regulated apartments throughout his four-year term, which would offer relief to about 2.4 million residents.
The exemption could apply to roughly 300,000 apartments, about one-third of the city’s rent-stabilized stock, though officials expect only hundreds of vacant units to use the rent-increase tool. The move reflects the political and financial pressure Mamdani faces after campaigning on a four-year rent freeze for roughly one million regulated apartments, a pledge that alarmed landlords already squeezed by debt, insurance, utilities, and repair costs.
This rent-freeze exemption will only apply to vacant apartments in the city that are already financed and regulated by the city’s housing agencies. Rent increases will be limited by the income caps set by the city. -WSJ
WSJ noted that City Hall has also created a new $5 million loan program to help landlords cover tenants’ overdue rent and avoid evictions.
The move comes just ahead of the nine-member Rent Guidelines Board, which is set to vote in June, supporting increases of 0% to 2% on one-year leases and 0% to 4% on two-year leases for rent-stabilized apartments.
The New York Times estimates the median rent-stabilized studio apartment goes for about $1,360 a month, and a two-bedroom rents for about $1,530. The median rent for a market-rate studio is north of $2,000, and for a two-bedroom it’s about $2,200.
Last year, the Rent Guidelines Board approved increases of 3% for one-year leases and 4.5% for two-year leases, despite the housing affordability crisis in the metro area.
These policies are part of Mamdani’s long-awaited housing plan, which also includes new efforts to build multi-family buildings and expand tenant protections. He has laid out a goal of building 200,000 new residences.
“When communities don’t build new housing, rents stay high, housing choice stays limited, and many New Yorkers are locked out of neighborhoods where their families can thrive,” Mamdani’s team wrote in a section of the new plan shared with POLITICO reporters ahead of the release.
Mamdani is trying to balance his pro-tenant rent-freeze campaign promise with the reality that parts of the city’s affordable housing network are in financial shambles.
Elon Musk Welcomes American Airlines To The Starlink Family
American Airlines shares jumped on Tuesday after the carrier announced a sweeping modernization of its narrow-body in-flight experience, with plans to install Starlink satellite internet terminals across 500 of its narrow-body jets in Q1 2027.
The modernization effort signals the end of slow, unreliable internet for a large portion of American’s domestic and short-haul fleet. Passengers will soon be able to stream, work, monitor markets via the Bloomberg Terminal, or check X in real time at speeds far beyond current in-flight internet speeds.
Elon Musk welcomed American Airlines to the Starlink family earlier on Tuesday.
Starlink is becoming a leading airline internet provider, with deals already in place at United, Southwest, and Alaska Air:
“Starlink is widely regarded as the world’s most advanced satellite constellation using a low Earth orbit to deliver broadband internet capable of supporting inflight streaming, online gaming, collaborative meeting tools and more,” American wrote in a press release, adding, “With thousands of satellites in low Earth orbit, Starlink can deliver multigigabit connectivity to aircraft using its Aero Terminal, which can support up to 1 Gbps per antenna.”
Shares of AAL jumped nearly 6% in late-afternoon trading. Year to date, shares are marginally lower by around 4%.
Some airline passengers are already prioritizing bookings with carriers that offer Starlink, as fast, reliable in-flight internet becomes a deciding factor for streaming, gaming, or simply remote work at 36,000 feet.
The announcement comes just weeks before SpaceX is set to IPO. Read the latest here.
Despite many false dawns, markets remain upbeat on prospects for peace between the United States and Iran. Secretary of State Rubio indicated that the US side had thought it would have something to announce on Sunday night, or “maybe today” given that the Sunday deadline has now passed, and it is actually Tuesday. Striking a more cautionary tone, Iranian President Pezeshkian said of prospects that a deal would be made within the day that “nobody could make such a claim”, while President Trump had earlier said that he had urged his representatives not to rush negotiations.
US markets were closed yesterday, but Asian and European equities finished broadly higher with notable gains seen in Japan’s Nikkei (+2.87%), Taiwan’s TAIEX (+3.26%) and the Euro Stoxx 50 (+1.95%). The July Brent crude future tumbled 7.15% to close at $96.14/bbl while WTI traded below $90/bbl before closing the day at $90.88. Bonds were bid across the curve with moves at the short end being especially pronounced.
Al Arabiya reports that it has obtained a copy of the draft memorandum of understanding that reportedly has the support of both sides. Provision of the MOU are said to include:
Extension of the ceasefire for 60 days
Reopening the Strait of Hormuz to international navigation, guaranteeing free passage of commercial vessels and oil tankers without additional transit fees, with the Iranian side committing to take the necessary technical and security measures to ensure safety of navigation, including the removal of mines.
Enabling Iran to resume sale and export of oil.
Continuation of negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program with the aim of reaching a long-term understanding.
US to ease restrictions on Iranian ports and grant specific sanctions waivers for Iran.
Ending military operations on all regional fronts, including Lebanon.
Freedom of navigation to be restored in Hormuz over a period of 30 days, with maritime traffic set to return to pre-war levels by the end of the 30 day period.
Nuclear issues to be negotiated over 60 days.
Some Iranian frozen assets to be released during the first phase of implementation.
This looks very like an oil-for-oil agreement, but notably excludes any mention of Iran’s missile program or regional proxies, and kicks the contentious nuclear issue into the long grass to be negotiated over the next two months. Considering that Iran’s nuclear program was core to the rationale for the war in the first place, market participants might direct some thought toward what could happen if agreement cannot be reached on that elusive point.
President Trump said this morning that “The Enriched Uranium will either be immediately turned over to the United States to be brought home and destroyed or, preferably, in conjunction and coordination with the Islamic Republic of Iran, destroyed in place or, at another acceptable location…” An Iranian response to this claim is not yet forthcoming.
Muddying the waters further, news broke this morning that US forces had carried out strikes against two IRGC ships. A CENTCOM spokesman said that the strikes were defensive, and in response to the ships attempting to lay mines in the Strait – which would certainly run counter to the spirit of the provision for Iran to remove mines that has supposedly been agreed. Iran retaliated by reportedly targeting US planes with surface-to-air missiles, eliciting strikes from the US on missile launchers near Bandar Abbas. Despite the tit-for-tat, US sources say that the ceasefire remains in effect.
Similarly, MOU provisions for ending regional war in Lebanon face strains as Israeli PM Netanyahu says that his armed forces will intensify strikes against Hezbollah to “deal them a crushing blow.” There is also likely to be daylight between the US and Israeli positions on Iran’s nuclear program, as the US appears to be prioritising the re-opening of Hormuz through an oil-for-oil arrangement while Israel views Iranian nuclear enrichment as an existential issue. Netanyahu has previously indicated that Israel reserves freedom to act directly against the Iranian nuclear program and has faced criticism from Opposition Leader Yair Lapid for failing to influence the Americans on this point.
For Trump’s part, peace with Iran is very much being tied to progress on the Abraham Accords that seek to normalize relations between Israel and US-aligned Arab states in the Gulf and elsewhere. Progressing the Abraham Accords would allow the US to make a geopolitical silk purse from the sow’s ear of a closed Strait of Hormuz. Already the importance of this has been demonstrated through the UAE’s (a current signatory) decision to leave OPEC and OPEC+ after having been granted US dollar swaplines and Israeli military aid.
Trump took to Truth Social to say that he is “mandatorily requesting” that all countries in the region sign the Accords, calling out Saudi Arabia and Qatar specifically and saying that failure to do so would show “bad intention” and should preclude those countries from benefiting from a peace deal. Clearly things are moving very fast but, as we have been flagging for some time now, there is potential for a world on the other side of this crisis where oil flows West, priced in dollars, with its security underwritten by the US navy, and Hormuz gradually becomes less important as a maritime chokepoint.
While issues in the Gulf continue to steal headlines, there are also major developments in the Ukraine War. Russia has reportedly warned Washington to evacuate embassy staff in Kiev as it prepares to launch “systematic strikes” against the Ukrainian capital. This follows confirmation from Russia on Sunday that it had used a nuclear-capable hypersonic ballistic missile against Ukrainian targets for the third time in the war.
The Russian Ministry of Defence said that the strikes will be a response to a Ukrainian drone attack against a student dormitory building in Starobilsk that killed at least 18 people and injured dozens of others. The BBC reports comments from honorary chairman of the Presidium of the Council on Foreign and Defence Policy, Sergey Karaganov, who reportedly said “we need to start punishing Europe for things like this, including with strikes. Symbolic to start with. Then, perhaps, less symbolic.”
Clearly, hoped-for progress in the Strait notwithstanding, geopolitical risk is here to stay and it isn’t necessarily all ‘in the price’.
Iran Vows ‘Swift, Decisive’ Revenge After Overnight US Port Attack, As Sides Seek Deal Allowing Each To ‘Sell Their Narrative’
Summary
CENTCOM denies that US Navy has officially restarted guiding ships through Hormuz Strait amid fresh tanker explosion and fuel leak incident.
IRGC says its military shot down an MQ-9 drone and forced an F-35 jet out of Iranian airspace.
Tehran formally accuses Washington of “ceasefire violation” while warning a final deal is not yet imminent, while Pentagon cites “self-defense” strikes in Hormuz overnight.
Ayatollah Hajj message: US will “no longer have a safe haven for mischief & the establishment of military bases in the region.”
Teran is demanding “12 billion released now and 12 billion after MOU 30 days runs out to open Hormuz.“
“Project Freedom has not resumed, and U.S. forces are not currently escorting commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz,” US Central Command says in a post on X. This comes after WSJ cited US officials to say that that the mission had restarted, but that reporting appeared premature.
Abdulla Banndar Al-Etaibi, a professor at Qatar University, says any negotiation between Iran and the US requires concessions from both parties to secure a deal.
“This is the hard part,” he told Al Jazeera, noting that both Tehran and Washington have realised that they can’t reach their goals through war. “That’s why they’re [moving] towards more diplomacy.”
“At the moment, it’s about the language, and it’s about how both parties can come out and sell a narrative that they want,” Al-Etaibi added.
‘Project Freedom’ Officially Back On
While it’s questionable to what degree US naval patrols of regional waters ever really stopped, US military officials say the navy has restarted escorts to ensure international vessels can safely cross through the contested Strait of Hormuz. The Pentagon is already touting some successes, according to a Tuesday update in the WSJ:
The officials told The Wall Street Journal that a Greek supertanker laden with two million barrels of crude was guided by the U.S. Navy, as it crossed the waterway off the Omani coast.
The ship was stuck in the Middle East Gulf since early March and is now heading to India to deliver its cargo.
The protection is a renewed push of “Project Freedom,” an earlier U.S. initiative to guide ships through the vital shipping corridor that was halted roughly 36 hours into the operation.
The officials said the Navy plans to help about a dozen vessels including supertankers and container ships to cross through the waterway over the coming days.
However, some serious security incidents involving shipping (possibly involving sea mines?) in the narrow waterway are still unfolding, also with reports of a fuel leakage incident into Gulf coastal waters:
UKMTO said it received a report of an incident 60 nautical miles east of Muscat, Oman, where the master of a tanker reported an external explosion on the port side aft near the waterline.
The crew and vessel are safe, though some bunker fuel was reported discharged into the sea. pic.twitter.com/8CA0JhrYu6
Despite all of these developments, and rising tensions and even last night’s US-Israel brief airstrike raid on Bandar Abbas port, the Trump administration is still touting that a final draft deal is just ‘days’ away. “I think there is strong alignment and agreement on what a preliminary draft should look like,” Rubio has said in fresh comments. “It’s either going to be a good deal or there isn’t going to be one.” Tehran has vowing retaliation for the overnight US attack incident.
Israeli leaders are meanwhile vowing they’ll prevent a ‘bad deal’ from being finalized…
Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir says the Israeli government will not let Trump sign a “bad deal” with Iran. pic.twitter.com/Ou0lJcnUJd
While diplomats in Washington and Tehran exchange heavily caveated peace drafts and attempt a breakthrough, the actual conflict theater of the Persian Gulf is telling an entirely different story. The fragile reality of the current ceasefire is on full display, given that after late Monday’s US-Israeli action against Iranian vessels at Bandar Abbas port, the IRGC says it opened fire on a US F-35 fighter jet and multiple unmanned aerial vehicles after they allegedly breached Iranian airspace. As part of the engagement, Iran says that it shot down a US MQ-9 drone (not for the first time of the war). The IRGC claims its air defense units successfully “shot down an MQ-9” Reaper drone during the encounter, while the remaining American “aircraft were forced to flee.”
This followed immediately on the heels of the United States saying carried out “self-defense” strikes in southern Iran overnight against various targets, including boats attempting to lay mines as well as even missile launch sites. “US forces conducted self-defense strikes in southern Iran today to protect our troops from threats posed by Iranian forces,” US Central Command (CENTCOM) spokesperson Capt. Tim Hawkins said.
Ceasefire Violation
Tehran has warned that the the ceasefire with the US is in jeopardy, with the Foreign Ministry on Tuesday having condemned the latest US “attacks on vessels as a ceasefire violation”.
Iran’s Foreign Ministry condemns “multiple instances of maritime piracy against Iranian commercial vessels” by the US in the Hormozgan region over the past 48 hours, according to statement. “Hormozgan is the Iranian province that incorporates Iranian ports and waters on the Strait of Hormuz,” it said according to Bloomberg, citing state media, in reference to the province which has Bandar Abbas as its capital. Iran “will not leave any acts of wickedness unanswered and will not hesitate in the slightest to defend the sovereignty and territory of Iran,” it said.
Some analysis of what may be behind this latest direct fire flare-up:
“Given where the strikes actually targeted – this is right next to where Iran would want to exert control over the Strait of Hormuz,” Puri told Al Jazeera. “One interpretation of these strikes … is that it is actually the US military demonstrating that Iran will not be able to mass forces exactly at the Strait of Hormuz itself if they want to institutionalize a toll collection and inspection regime and other things.”
“Both sides are signaling intent and capability and commitment during these negotiations, and they’re using actions as well as words. Sometimes they’re using actions in place of words,” he added.
Ayatollah’s New Threat Against US Bases
Following the engagement, an IRGC military spokesperson issued a blunt warning to Washington against future ceasefire violations, declaring that any new aggression against sovereign territory would be met with a “far more severe” response that would structurally extend “beyond the region.”
Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, who has been in hiding, released a fiery written address via his Telegram channel to mark the Islamic Hajj pilgrimage. In the message he put American bases scattered throughout neighboring Gulf nations on notice, declaring that the US will “no longer have a safe haven for mischief and the establishment of military bases in the region.”
Khamenei warned regional Arab capitals that playing host to the Pentagon carries with it certain risks. “The nations and lands of the region will no longer be a shield for American bases,” Khamenei wrote in the message, even while extending an apparent olive branch of sorts immediate neighbors: “I sincerely and purely invite all Islamic countries and governments to friendship and cooperation.”
Meanwhile some latest from Rubio…
JUST IN: Marco Rubio on Iran & The Strait of Hormuz:
“They’re going to be open one way or the other. So they need to be open, what’s happening there is unlawful, it’s illegal, it’s unsustainable for the world, it’s unacceptable. I don’t know of any country in the world that… pic.twitter.com/HgmbRhd27S
Marking the Hajj, the annual Islamic pilgrimage to Mecca, his message included as follows:
Iranian leader Mojtaba Khamenei issued a message on May 26 calling for greater unity across the Muslim world against the United States and Israel, saying that the chants “Death to America” and “Death to Israel” will become the rallying slogans of Muslims and “the oppressed of the world.”
Deal Status & $12 Billion Confidence-Building Measure
According to reported leaks detailing the active Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) layout, Tehran’s compliance hinges on a strict, phased cash release. A source familiar with the text confirmed that Teran is demanding “12BN released now and 12BN after MOU 30 days runs out to open Hormuz.” If Washington refuses to front the initial tranche, the mining operations and blockade in the Strait will remain active. The initial funds release has been described by Iranian officials as a confidence-building measure to move things along toward a final agreement.
The Islamic Republic is further seeking to remind the world that a deal is being pushed forward, but it is not imminent:
An Iranian official says that while “there is no toll” on the Strait of Hormuz, the regime is working to regulate the waterway and that ships wishing to cross will likely be required to make some form of payment.
At a press briefing in Tehran attended by the ABC, the regime issued its first direct response to statements from the United States over the weekend, suggesting a deal to end the war was close and would include opening the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran did say a framework to end the war with the US had been reached, but warned an agreement was not imminent, and its nuclear program was not part of the negotiations.
I don’t get how everyone is completely blind to this. US CENTCOM literally admitted it themselves.
“Targets included missile launch sites and Iranian boats attempting to emplace mines.”
Do you lay sea mines when you’re planning to wide-open the strait? Watch what they do, not… https://t.co/PotjAg9bjZ
In Lebanon, the National News Agency reported at least 12 civilians were killed during a devastating overnight Israeli strike on the town of Mashghara. Concurrently, Israel’s military has issued a sweeping, forced displacement directive for Nabatieh – a city of 80,000 residents – ordering them to clear out north of the Zahrani River.
On Monday Netanyahu made clear that he had ordered a dramatic expanse of the war against Hezbollah in Lebanon. Evacuation orders are once again being issued for southern suburbs of Beirut, portending a return to all-out expanded war in the country, also as Hezbollah drones are being sent on northern Israel.
Status of Talks Through the Weekend
via Newsquawk…
Over the weekend, US President Trump posted that an agreement has largely been negotiated, subject to finalisation between the US, Iran and various Middle Eastern countries, while the final aspects and details of the deal were being discussed, and will be announced shortly.
He followed up by stating that negotiations are proceeding in an orderly and constructive manner, while he informed representatives not to rush into a deal and that time is on their side.
Reuters reported that the proposed framework is broken into three stages: 1) formally ending the war, 2) reopening the Strait of Hormuz and 3) opening an extendable 30-day window for broader negotiations on nuclear issues and sanctions relief.
Axios further reported, citing a US official, that an agreement would involve a 60-day ceasefire extension during which the Strait of Hormuz would be opened, Iran would be able to freely sell oil, and negotiations would be held on curbing Iran’s nuclear programme.
However, a US senior official told Axios that the White House doesn’t expect an agreement to end the war with Iran on Sunday and believes it could take several days for the deal’s approval by Iran’s leadership.
Elsewhere, Iran’s Foreign Minister Araghchi travelled to Doha for talks with Qatar’s PM.
The Ebola outbreak in Africa could become the deadliest in history because it is spreading faster than responders can deal with it, an aid group said on May 26.
Officials failed to initially detect the outbreak due to a lack of testing sufficient to identify the Bundibugyo virus, a rarer type of virus that causes Ebola. The outbreak is centered in the Ituri province in the northeast of Congo, also known as the DRC, where fighting regularly displaces people from their homes and hospitals.
“The initial failure to detect this outbreak has allowed it to spread to several areas of Ituri province in northeast DRC, where the first cases were identified, as well as to North Kivu (just to the south of Ituri) and South Kivu provinces, and now Uganda,” the International Rescue Committee, one of the aid groups on the ground, said in a report published on Tuesday.
With cases reported in key population centers such as Goma, the capital of North Kivu, and Kampala in Uganda, there is a significant risk of onward spread of the disease, the group assessed.
“The warning signs are flashing red,” Bob Kitchen, vice president of emergencies for the group, said in a statement.
“Eastern DRC is confronting this outbreak more fragile and less prepared than during the 2018–2020 outbreak that killed more than 2,000 people—and with fewer resources to fight it. Increased conflict and cuts to global aid funding have dismantled defenses at exactly the wrong moment.”
The outbreak has risen to 101 confirmed cases, about 220 suspected deaths, and more than 900 suspected cases, about one month after the outbreak was first detected. Other countries, such as Rwanda and the United States, have restricted travel from people who have been in Congo or intensified border checks.
“The delay in detecting the outbreak means that we are now playing catch-up with a very fast-moving epidemic,” Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, the World Health Organization’s director-general, told a meeting of African ministers on Monday.
“We are urgently scaling up operations, but at the moment, the epidemic is outpacing us.”
There are no vaccines or treatments for the Bundibugyo virus. Containment efforts include widespread testing, isolating patients, and monitoring people exposed to known or suspected cases.
Ghebreyesus said that working with the governments of Congo and Uganda and other partners would be key to stopping the outbreak. Governments and other entities on Monday pledged about $500 million to ramp up efforts to respond to and prevent further spread of the outbreak, Dr. Jean Kaseya, director-general of the Africa Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said in a post on X.
Technicians install beds and other equipment inside the isolation area for suspected cases at CBCA Virunga Hospital during rehabilitation work aimed at preparing the facility to receive potential Ebola cases in Goma, Democratic Republic of Congo, on May 22, 2026. Jospin Mwisha/AFP via Getty Images
The International Rescue Committee, which is based in New York, recommended several steps, including relaxing restrictions on the importation of personal protective equipment such as masks, and quickly donating funds to central Africa to support health workers and others.
The International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies, another aid group with personnel in Congo, has called for increased funding to expand surveillance and deploy more teams to help locals safely bury Ebola victims.
Patrick Muyaya, a Congolese government spokesman, said in a May 25 post on X that the epidemic was “well contained” in the Ituri, North Kivu, and South Kivu provinces.
“Every day, response teams are being strengthened and surveillance is being intensified,” he wrote, adding later that “we have the experience and expertise to contain this outbreak.”
Why Oil Markets Could Face A Generational Shock This Summer If US-Iran Talks Fail
President Trump is signaling “make a good deal” or walk away with no deal at all.
Overnight hostilities around the Hormuz maritime chokepoint highlight just how fragile the ceasefire remains as Washington and Tehran try to solidify a peace deal to end the conflict.
The timing of a peace deal is very important because, as we have warned readers, a no-deal scenario would collide with a deteriorating oil-supply backdrop by summer, when global buffers and floating storage begin to run down, and SPR releases become less effective in offsetting lost supply from the Gulf region.
Building on UBS analyst Arend Kapteyn’s note from Friday titled “When The Oil Buffers Run Out,” Brookings’ Robin Brooks and Ben Harris outline in a note that oil markets could face a massive price shock by mid-July as temporary supply buffers run dry.
There appears to be consensus building among Wall Street analysts at Goldman, JPMorgan, UBS, and many other desks that if the Hormuz chokepoint is not reopened in the near term, an energy cliff may materialize in early summer.
The Brookings analysts say crude prices have so far been depressed by three factors: trade rerouting, inventory drawdowns, and market expectations that the U.S.-Iran war would end quickly.
“The bottom line is that the supply shortfall will build in the coming months as temporary buffers are depleted. And if markets grow increasingly pessimistic over an eventual resolution to the impasse in the strait, oil prices may rise materially higher,” the Brookings analysts said.
However, they warned that the three factors capping crude prices are fading. Russian floating stocks are likely depleted by the end of April; Iranian floating stocks are expected to be gone by the end of May; and the IEA emergency oil release is projected to be exhausted by July 9.
They continued, “It is fair to say that the scale of the supply shortfall is now well-known to markets. But the timeline on which temporary buffers run out and how this interacts with prices is of critical importance.”
“This interaction means non-linear outcomes in prices—in other words, sharp price spikes—are possible the longer this conflict is expected to take. The potential for non-linear outcomes grows the longer oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains severely encumbered,” the analysts ended the note.
Shifting back to UBS analyst Kapteyn’s note last week on oil buffers, he warned, “Oil prices can move much higher once inventories are depleted.”
He continued:
This week saw the largest-ever drawdown in US oil inventories since records began in 1982: commercial inventories and the SPR combined fell by 17.8mb. These stock draws help explain why—despite nearly three months of supply shortfalls from the Middle East—oil is still trading “only” around $105/bbl.
Oil prices and volumes are linked by the price elasticity of demand. A simple relationship allows us to approximate price outcomes under different supply disruptions and degrees of demand destruction:
The oil team estimates that the net supply loss via the Strait of Hormuz is around 9mb/d after SPR releases, equivalent to a ~9% disruption.
At $105/bbl, this implies demand elasticity of roughly –0.2: a 1% increase in prices reduces demand by 0.2% (see chart). Without SPR releases, the supply shock would be closer to 12%, implying a price nearer $123/bbl.
There are two ways in which oil prices could increase much more:
First, if inventories are depleted they can no longer buffer the supply shortfall.
Second, as the “easy” adjustments in consumption and production are exhausted, demand becomes less responsive to higher prices.
The chart highlights some scary combinations.
For instance, if the global supply shortfall were 14% then even with the current demand elasticity, oil should be trading closer to $140/bbl. If the demand elasticity was 0.15 rather than 0.2, the implied oil price would be $208/bbl, and if the demand elasticity was 0.1 prices would approach $372/bbl.
What we are outlining here is a growing consensus across Wall Street: a no-deal outcome between Washington and Tehran would represent a severe risk for energy markets, with the critical point of no return by early summer. That is when the temporary buffers suppressing crude prices, including emergency stockpile releases, floating storage, rerouted flows, and hopes for a diplomatic off-ramp, begin to lose effectiveness. Once those offsets are exhausted, the market would likely be forced to slap a new war risk premium more aggressively, removing the current ceiling on Brent and WTI.
… the clock is ticking for Washington and Tehran to get a deal done or risk chaos far beyond energy markets that would spill over into shipping, then the global economy.
