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These Are The World’s Most Valuable Brands In 2023

These Are The World’s Most Valuable Brands In 2023

Brand value can be a critical part of any company’s intangible assets.

These kind of non-physical assets, such as patents and brand names, are having an increasing influence on a company’s overall value. A 2020 analysis found that intangibles made up 90% of the S&P 500’s market value, an increase of 22 percentage points since 1995.

In the infographic below, Visual Capitalist’s Dorothy Neufeld shows the world’s 100 most valuable brands in 2023 based on an annual ranking from Brand Finance, illustrating the role brand equity plays in a company’s market position.

The Top 100 Companies, by Brand Value

Brand Finance examined over 5,000 companies (and in cases of groups like Alphabet and Meta, their subsidiary brands) across 38 countries.

Broadly speaking, a brand’s value represents the allocation of company earnings that are linked to the brand. More details on the methodology are found at the end of this article.

Here are the most valuable brands in 2023:

Rank Brand Brand Value (B) Country Sector
1 Amazon $299.3 U.S. Retail
2 Apple $297.5 U.S. Tech
3 Google $281.4 U.S. Media
4 Microsoft $191.6 U.S. Tech
5 Walmart $113.8 U.S. Retail
6 Samsung Group $99.7 South Korea Tech
7 ICBC $69.5 China Banking
8 Verizon $67.4 U.S. Telecoms
9 Tesla $66.2 U.S. Automobiles
10 TikTok/Douyin $65.7 China Media
11 Deutsche Telekom $62.9 Germany Telecoms
12 China Construction
Bank
$62.7 China Banking
13 Home Depot $61.1 U.S. Retail
14 Facebook $59.0 U.S. Media
15 State Grid $58.8 China Utilities
16 Mercedes-Benz $58.8 Germany Automobiles
17 Agricultural Bank
Of China
$57.7 China Banking
18 Starbucks $53.4 U.S. Restaurants
19 Toyota $52.5 Japan Automobiles
20 WeChat $50.2 China Media
21 Moutai $49.7 China Spirits
22 AT&T $49.6 U.S. Telecoms
23 Disney $49.5 U.S. Media
24 Allianz Group $48.4 Germany Insurance
25 Shell $48.2 UK Oil & Gas
26 Instagram $47.4 U.S. Media
27 Bank of China $47.3 China Banking
28 Costco $46.6 U.S. Retail
29 Aramco $45.2 Saudi Arabia Oil & Gas
30 Ping An $44.7 China Insurance
31 Huawei $44.3 China Tech
32 China Mobile $43.4 China Telecoms
33 BMW $40.4 Germany Automobiles
34 accenture $39.9 U.S. Tech
35 Oracle $39.6 U.S. Tech
36 Bank of America $38.6 U.S. Banking
37 Tencent $38.1 China Media
38 UnitedHealthcare $37.1 U.S. Healthcare
Services
39 McDonald’s $36.9 U.S. Restaurants
40 Porsche $36.8 Germany Automobiles
41 NTT Group $36.6 Japan Telecoms
42 UPS $35.4 U.S. Logistics
43 Mitsubishi Group $35.0 Japan Automobiles
44 Marlboro $34.7 U.S. Tobacco
45 Deloitte $34.5 U.S. Commercial
Services
46 American Express $34.1 U.S. Commercial
Services
47 Volkswagen $34.0 Germany Automobiles
48 Coca-Cola $33.5 U.S. Soft Drinks
49 Wells Fargo $33.0 U.S. Banking
50 CSCEC $31.9 China Engineering
& Construction
51 J.P. Morgan $31.8 U.S. Banking
52 Lowe’s $31.6 U.S. Retail
53 Chase $31.3 U.S. Banking
54 Nike $31.3 U.S. Apparel
55 Mitsui $30.7 Japan Engineering
& Construction
56 CVS $30.6 U.S. Retail
57 Citi $30.6 U.S. Banking
58 Taobao $30.5 China Retail
59 Wuliangye $30.3 China Spirits
60 YouTube $29.7 U.S. Media
61 PetroChina $29.6 China Oil & Gas
62 VISA $29.6 U.S. Commercial
Services
63 FedEx $28.9 U.S. Logistics
64 Xfinity $28.8 U.S. Telecoms
65 Target $27.6 U.S. Retail
66 Tmall $27.4 China Retail
67 Hyundai Group $27.3 South Korea Automobiles
68 Sinopec $27.1 China Oil & Gas
69 Tata Group $26.4 India Engineering
& Construction
70 Louis Vuitton $26.3 France Apparel
71 IBM $26.2 U.S. Tech
72 EY $25.7 UK Commercial
Services
73 PWC $25.3 U.S. Commercial
Services
74 Mastercard $24.8 U.S. Commercial
Services
75 China Merchants
Bank
$24.5 China Banking
76 Honda $24.2 Japan Automobiles
77 Netflix $24.2 U.S. Media
78 Cisco $23.9 U.S. Tech
79 Sumitomo Group $23.9 Japan Trading Houses
80 Spectrum $23.3 U.S. Telecoms
81 Uber $23.3 U.S. Mobility
82 Intel $22.9 U.S. Tech
83 Dell Technologies $22.6 U.S. Tech
84 SK Group $22.5 South Korea Telecoms
85 Nestlé $22.4 Switzerland Food
86 Ford $22.3 U.S. Automobiles
87 TSMC $21.6 Taiwan Tech
88 Walgreens $21.6 U.S. Retail
89 Siemens Group $ 21.4 Germany Engineering
& Construction
90 LG Group $21.3 South Korea Tech
91 SAP $21.1 Germany Tech
92 TotalEnergies $20.7 France Oil & Gas
93 TD $20.4 Canada Banking
94 Optum $20.1 U.S. Healthcare
Services
95 Elevance Health
(formerly Anthem)
$19.9 U.S. Healthcare
Services
96 HSBC $19.9 UK Banking
97 CREC $19.8 China Engineering
& Construction
98 CHANEL $19.4 France Apparel
99 General Electric $19.3 U.S. Engineering
& Construction
100 Salesforce $19.1 U.S. Tech

Amazon ranks number one globally with its brand valued at $299 billion. As a market leader in online retail, it has strong brand loyalty in its B2C segment which generates its largest share of revenue, and is a key player in cloud services for its B2B platforms.

Apple is in close second with a $298 billion brand. It’s important to note that both tech giants brands fell in value from last year, as supply chain disruptions, labor market constraints, and slower forecasted revenue impacted their brands.

Other big tech brands Google (#3) and Microsoft (#4) were next in the ranking. Korean conglomerate Samsung (#6) was the highest-ranking firm based outside of America.

Brand Value: Leading Sectors in 2023

Looking at brand value based on sector, we can see that tech continues to dominate. The sector breakdown below uses data from the top 500 brands covered by Brand Finance.

Rank Sector % of Total Total Brand Value (B)
1 Tech 19.4% $891.2
2 Retail 15.0% $690.0
3 Media 14.0% $645.2
4 Banking 10.2% $467.4
5 Automobiles 8.6% $397.3
6 Telecoms 7.3% $334.6
7 Commercial Services 3.8% $174.0
8 Oil & Gas 3.7% $171.0
9 Engineering & Construction 3.3% $149.5
10 Insurance 2.0% $93.0
11 Restaurants 2.0% $90.3
12 Spirits 1.7% $80.0
13 Healthcare Services 1.7% $77.1
14 Apparel 1.7% $77.0
15 Logistics 1.4% $64.3
16 Utilities 1.3% $58.8
17 Tobacco 0.8% $34.7
18 Soft Drinks 0.7% $33.5
19 Trading Houses 0.5% $23.9
20 Mobility 0.5% $23.3
21 Food 0.5% $22.4

Overall, the top tech brands were worth a combined $891 billion largely thanks to the outsized influence of Apple, Microsoft, and Samsung.

After retail and media, the banking sector still held significant brand sway at $467 billion. Automobiles rounded out the top five sectors at $397 billion, led by companies like Tesla and Mercedes-Benz.

The Fastest Rising Brands in 2023

While some brands such as Apple and Amazon fell in value over the last year, others have increased their brand value.

Below, we show the fastest rising brands across the top 500 around the world:

Rank Name Brand Value % Change (2022-2023)
1 BYD 57%
2 ConocoPhillips 56%
3 Maersk 53%
4 LinkedIn 49%
5 Christian Dior 46%
6 Tesla 44%
7 ADP 44%
8 United Airlines 42%
9 Instagram 42%
10 Equinor 40%

BYD, a leading electric vehicle (EV) firm in China, jumped the sharpest. Focused on budget EVs and backed by Warren Buffett, it has become a growing competitor to Tesla, and is the second-largest producer of lithium-ion batteries globally.

Energy firm ConocoPhillips saw the second-largest gain in brand value, driven by its focus on energy transition fuels, cutting production emissions, and lowering supply costs.

Following a series of difficult years for the airline industryUnited Airline’s brand value increased 42% as travel demand accelerated.

As the economic landscape continues to shift, the value of these brands will shift as well.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 07/26/2023 – 23:00

NASA’s Solid-State Battery Breakthrough Could Transform Air Travel

NASA’s Solid-State Battery Breakthrough Could Transform Air Travel

Authored by Haley Zaremba via OilPrice.com,

  • NASA’s new solid-state battery technology offers a greener alternative to traditional jet fuel combustion, eliminating associated carbon and non-carbon emissions.

  • The solid-state batteries surpass current lithium-ion batteries by being lighter, having a larger energy storage capacity, and avoiding the environmental and geopolitical implications linked to lithium.

  • This battery technology also solves typical solid-state drawbacks, providing a higher discharge rate, improving safety by avoiding liquid elements, and operating effectively under extreme temperatures, making it ideal for aviation.

NASA may have just found a way to change the future of the aeronautics industry. Researchers at NASA’s Solid-state Architecture Batteries for Enhanced Rechargeability and Safety (SABERS) have successfully created a solid-state battery technically advanced enough to efficiently power an aircraft. Finding a way to make air travel greener has been a critical point of interest for the global path to decarbonization, as well as for the economic wellbeing of the industry in a future where fuel prices will likely continue to increase while policy instruments such as carbon taxes become more commonplace. 

The transportation sector is one of the world’s biggest contributors to climate change, producing almost a quarter of total energy-related carbon emissions worldwide – and air travel is one of the biggest offenders. On average, airplanes emit approximately 100 times more carbon dioxide per hour than a shared bus or train ride. Altogether, aviation’s annual emissions are higher than most entire countries, at 1 billion tons of carbon dioxide per year. And the combustion of jet fuel doesn’t just emit carbon, it also produces “nitrogen oxides, soot, water vapor and sulfate aerosols, all of which interact with the atmosphere and have an effect on the climate in different ways and at different time scales.”

Not only will the new batteries be able to electrify aircraft, thereby eliminating carbon and non-carbon emissions associated with burning jet fuel, these breakthrough solid-state batteries manage to avoid one of the most major trade-offs plaguing electrification processes writ large: lithium. Lithium is a finite resource associated with its own slew of negative environmental externalities, as well as major geopolitical implications. China currently controls nearly one-third of the world’s lithium supply chains, and diversifying that market will not be easy. Furthermore, lithium’s essential role in a huge number of clean energy infrastructural components has led to rising prices and a scarcity mindset. Avoiding this sticky situation altogether is a major win for SABERS.

Not only that, the new NASA solid-state battery is lighter and can store more power than lithium-ion batteries. “We’re starting to approach this new frontier of battery research that could do so much more than lithium-ion batteries can,” said SABERS’ Rocco Viggiano, an investigator at NASA’s Glenn Research Center in Cleveland.“Not only does this design eliminate 30 to 40 percent of the battery’s weight, it also allows us to double or even triple the energy it can store, far exceeding the capabilities of lithium-ion batteries that are considered to be state of the art,” he added. 

SABERS has also been able to overcome a major disadvantage associated with solid-state battery technology. Typically, lithium-ion batteries are much more efficient when it comes to discharging power. But through a new innovation SABERS has been able to “increase a solid-state battery’s discharge rate by a factor of 10 — and then by another factor of five,” according to a report from Yahoo! News. 

When talking about any innovation in aviation, safety is a top priority and concern. Solid-state batteries also eliminate key safety concerns connected with lithium-ion batteries, which contain highly flammable liquid which is historically prone to leakage, requiring extra casing that makes the batteries even heavier. Solid-state batteries don’t contain any liquid at all, which allows them to be stacked in more space-efficient configurations, and they can still be used even when they are damaged. In the extreme temperature changes experienced by aircraft over the course of a flight, such durability is essential. “NASA researchers have found that solid-state batteries can operate in temperatures twice as hot as lithium-ion batteries,” Yahoo! reports. What’s more, “solid-state batteries achieve this using less cooling technology than lithium-ion.”

While the technology is brand new, and is not yet commercially viable, it shows enormous disruptive potential. “Aviation is widely recognised as a ‘hard-to-decarbonise’ sector having a strong dependency on liquid fossil fuels and an infrastructure that has long ‘lock-in’ timescales, resulting in slow fleet turnover times,” according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. In this context, the NASA breakthrough is particularly exciting. If these solid-state batteries become cost-effective at scale, the benefits for the transportation sector – as well as global climate goals – are enormous. 

Tyler Durden
Wed, 07/26/2023 – 22:30

Russia, South Korea Hold Rare Defense Talks In Pyongyang Amid Soaring US Tensions

Russia, South Korea Hold Rare Defense Talks In Pyongyang Amid Soaring US Tensions

Russia has held high-level defense talks with North Korea at a moment Pyongyang is conducing a series of ballistic missile tests aimed at warning the United States while it docks a nuclear-armed submarine at a South Korean port. Threats and even nuclear warnings have been on the rise on the peninsula, also after several provocative joint US-South Korea military drills,

Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu led the talks with his North Korean counterpart, Kang Sun-nam, in the capital on Wednesday, a defense ministry statement confirmed, pledging a deepened ‘partnership’.

Russia’s Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu (L) and North Korea’s Defense Minister, General Kang Sun-nam (R), via TASS

Shoigu declared of “friendly” relations that bilateral relations would be improved in all fields. “I am confident that today’s talks will contribute to strengthening cooperation between our defense ministries,” he said.

“Visits of warships, official visits of high-ranking defense officials, exchanges of working-level delegations, and personnel training have all contributed to maintaining peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula,” Shoigu added.

“I am glad to make your acquaintance and meet with you. I happily accepted your invitation to visit Pyongyang, the capital of a friendly state. I am grateful to my Korean friends for the rich program you have offered. From the very first minute, I felt your care and attention. I hope we will manage not only to work actively, but also to learn a lot of interesting things about North Korea, your culture and traditions, and see the sights,” the ministry quoted Shoigu as introducing the talks.

The Russian delegation will be in attendance Pyongyang’s celebrations of the 70th anniversary of the end of the Korean War, featuring a huge military parade and display of advanced missiles.

A Russian delegation or officials have not visited North Korea since the pandemic, when the already very isolated country completely shut off its borders in order to prevent spread. There’s some speculation currently that the north may have changed its policies, given the Russian defense ministry’s visit this week.

This appears to be the case, also given China is sending a delegation of officials to observe the commemoration events:

Russia and China are sending government delegations to North Korea this week for events marking the 70th anniversary of the armistice that halted fighting in the 1950-53 Korean War.

The visits suggest North Korea is further opening up after years of pandemic isolation and is eager to showcase its partnerships with authoritarian neighbors in the face of deepening nuclear tensions with Washington, Seoul and Tokyo.

Washington has over the course of the Ukraine conflict at various points accused North Korea of supplying the Russian military with additional artillery ammo. The two countries actually share a small border. More recently, there have been accusations that Wagner Group, which is now on the outs with Moscow in the wake of last month’s mutiny, purchased large quantities of arms and equipment from the Kim Jong-Un government.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 07/26/2023 – 22:00

The Simpocalypse Is Upon Us

The Simpocalypse Is Upon Us

Authored by 𝙈𝙞𝙠𝙚 “DR. DOOM” 𝙃𝙤₿𝙖𝙧𝙩 via BombThrower.com,

For decades fathers, uncles, brothers and sons sat idly by as men were publicly insulted and berated without providing refutation or challenge. Yet, we all bear the burden in these unfortunate outcomes. In our willful complacency weakness and fragility have festered and society has since progressed further with rot. Every battle that we choose not to fight, is a battle left for our children to be forced to toil with. We have set our children up for a most troublesome conflict with the self, society, and the soul of America.

We have run aground onto the shores of simp culture. Before we continue it would be best that we define what this term “simp,” and the culture entails. A simp refers to one who expresses undue or excessive affection, sympathy, and attention towards one that does not reciprocate these feelings. With explicit focus on the “undue” aspect of this relationship, the receivers of this behavior do not provide actions or evidence that would justify such admiration.

For this discussion I’m not just speaking on the men that are purchasing OnlyFans subscriptions. I am also commenting on the general public’s approach to celebrities, politicians, influencers, and public figures. People seem to have become so disgustingly obsessed with the lives of their favorite, pedestalized, humans that they hang on their every word, and take their words as gospel, without challenge. Effectively outsourcing critical thinking (and thought in general) to those that have been propped up to a higher perceived status than their own. As if the numbers of Followers or Likes one accumulates is a representation of their intelligence or work performed. While this may be true for some I can most certainly tell you, with a hefty amount of experience engaging with individuals of comparable stature on forums such as Twitter Spaces, that many of these individuals are putting forth just as much (or as little) effort and thought as you or I.

Society the world over demands better from all of us. Your children deserve better. In order to achieve this we must correct this abomination that is simp culture.

We are in the midst of a simpdemic.

In order to do so, we must fix the imbalances in the development of our youth. Here in America this cannot be accomplished while we have an average number of jobs per household greater than 2, ideally with that number being closer to 1.5 (let alone lower). We need the nuclear family to return back to an attainable reality for the average citizen. Today it is not. Without the availability of time parents cannot provide the proper guidance necessary to teach the lessons that produce effective, well-rounded members of society. Without the availability of savings as a strategy the average parent cannot work towards building meaningful generational wealth. Otherwise they have to sacrifice a 2/20 over scraps to “save” their purchasing power in assets on the stock market, where their nest-egg is at risk to human fallibility and incompetence – which would require further investing of time and effort in order to understand where they are putting their hard-earned capital. Assets that they are already radically short in. The only other option is to pay for an individual to manage their funds, which increases the likelihood of unfortunate outcomes due to human incompetence, while these managers still pocket their fees.

That is a lose-lose for the average American family.

Taking Corrective Action Against Simpdom

In order to correct this swelling of simp culture we have to empower and embolden the individual. The individual needs to be capable of standing on their own, both the single individual as well as each individual family. Through the lens of genuine freedom and individual sovereignty, we can bring the value and strength back to the nuclear family structure. And we can return to proper child-rearing practices and raising effective members of society, rather than those that spout the latest headline that has been pushed by the mainstream media. Producing citizens that are hard thinking, hard working, and capable of checking authority is how we maintain a true America. The government was never intended to be the arbiter of truth. This land was founded on the principle that The People will be a checks & balance on the governmental body just like the governing body is structured to be checks & balances on each of the three systems that make up said governing body.

What is the most effective way to produce a populace of such capacity? Or… perhaps “most effective” is incorrect here. Perhaps I mean what is a very effective tact that we can rely on currently, that is actionable today. What allows for the individual to be capable of standing their ground? For a family to withstand social pressures? For an individual to work toward changing their destiny through hard work and tenacity? That allows the elementary teacher, the doctor, the nurse, the plumber, or the soldier to be capable of standing up for what they believe in without a daunting fear of their standard of living going into the shredder? I believe that bitcoin provides an avenue that alleviates some of these fears.

The ₿-Word

Bitcoin, when custodied properly – outside of the nefarious claws of a financial system that is dictated by the BlackRock’s and JPMorgan’s – can provide a paradigm shift to our most cherished citizens; those that lie outside of the unproductive class or the 1%. Saving a small amount of excess into an asset that can avoid seizure when the seedphrase is securely stored, and is uncensorable, allows for an accumulation strategy that can effectively not be stopped. Saving a small amount of excess in an asset that is still very much in the early stages of its understanding, let alone its adoption, provides an avenue for wealth generation tantamount to early investment opportunities previously only made available to participants that held an “accredited” status. Where one had to already boast a networth in the range of 6 to 7 figures before being deemed “safe” enough to invest.
While we are witnessing the likes of BlackRock and banks having done the work to provide investment vehicles to allow their customers the access to investing in financial products that enable exposure to the price discovery of this asset. Not out of desire by these entities neither, nay, by the demand of their customers. All while the energy industry has been learning their very own lesson with regards to the wildly synergistic relationship that bitcoin mining provides for both incentivization of energy generation beyond that of societal demand. A relationship that has never existed for our species before (that has been economical), while also providing a positive for the environment as well via greenhouse gas reduction strategies in the ways of flare gas mitigation on oil production operations. A relationship that I have personally witnessed first-hand while working in the Bakken Basin (psst: that flare mitigation allows for American producers to also pump more oil in the regulated markets like North Dakota and Colorado).

Conclusion

America is sick. Sick with simps. Sick with confusion. She needs a healthy dose of quality American stubbornness. That stubbornness can not be allowed to stand without catching a breath. That breath has to be provided via money, because money provides opportunity. Opportunity to chase our dreams or stand our ground for what we believe is right, just, and what is moral. In the information age, money that cannot flow as freely as the information itself effectively prevents the propagation of freedom and incentivizes tyranny.

Give yourself a foundation to stand upon so that we can tear down these pillars of simp culture, take a stand and simply say “No. I can not comply.” Is there a more American thing one can do?

Resist the simps. Build families. Question authority. Workout. Eat meat. Own guns. Say what you believe. And say with ya chest. Freedoms that can be enabled by a money of individual sovereignty and freedom; bitcoin.

*  *  *

Subscribe to the Bombthrower mailing list to get these posts as they come out (plus The CBDC Survival Guide when it’s ready), and follow Mike Hobart via his Substack and Twitter.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 07/26/2023 – 21:30

Beware The Huge Negative Lag Impact Of Three Rounds Of COVID Stimulus

Beware The Huge Negative Lag Impact Of Three Rounds Of COVID Stimulus

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

Estimates from econometric studies indicate that the government expenditure multiplier is positive for the first four to six quarters after the initial deficit financing, then turns negative after three years.

The lag now begins to bite.

Real Per Capital Average of GDP and GDI courtesy of Lacy Hunt at Hoisington Management

The Hoisington Management 2023 Q2 Review by Lacy Hunt is another gem. His focus this quarter is on government debt, negative multipliers, and lag times.

2023 Q2 Key Ideas

Rising Budget Deficits

The U.S. Government budget deficit has taken a serious turn for the worse this year. The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and CHIPS and Science Act of 2022, as enacted, add over $1 trillion to the deficit over the next several years. The Penn Wharton Budget Model, however, indicates that due to the way instructions were written, the cost of the IRA is running three times greater than the amount appropriated by Congress. Current year federal tax revenues have also fallen considerably below a year ago. This is consistent with real gross domestic income (GDI) which fell in three of the last four quarters.

Increased interest payments and a short fall in tax revenues both add to the deficit, but they do not boost economic activity. Neither produce a new job, a new road, or a new dollar of research and development. More importantly, the lagged effects of the huge budget deficits of FY 2020-21 are likely to be negative due to the government expenditure multiplier.

Estimates from econometric studies of highly indebted industrialized economies indicate that the government expenditure multiplier is positive for the first four to six quarters after the initial deficit financing, then turns negative after three years. This implies that a dollar of debt financed federal expenditures will, ‘at the end of the day,’ reduce private GDP.

Successfully Time Tested

Two different rigorous studies, one completed in 2011 and the other in 2012, each using different methodologies, both concluded government fiscal policy actions that either increase the size of government relative to GDP or increase the government debt relative to GDP significantly weaken the trend rate of economic growth. The evidence, from more than a decade since this research was published, confirms those findings and indicates that the government multiplier is becoming increasingly negative.

Andreas Bergh and Magnus Henrekson (BH), writing in the peer-reviewed Journal of Economic Surveys in 2011, determined that a one percentage point increase in government size reduces the annual growth rate in real per capita GDP by 0.05% to 0.1% per year. Increases in government size means that more of the economy is being shifted away from the high positive multiplier private sector into the negative multiplier government sector.

When President Nixon closed the Gold Window, the 20-year moving average of the ratio of government size relative to GDP was 25.2% while the real per capita GDP/GDI average growth rate was 2.2%, which coincided with the average real per capita GDP growth rate since 1870. Based on the comparable numbers in early 2023, government size was a considerably higher 34.3%, and the growth in the real per capita GDP/GDI average was a much slower 1.3%. Thus, government size increased 9.1 percentage points and the real per capita GDP/GDI average growth lost 0.9% per year [Lead Chart]. Thus, the actual results, twelve years of which were beyond BH’s publication date, means the negative impact on economic performance was within 0.1% of BH’s top of the range.

Reinhardt, Reinhardt and Rogoff (RRR)

The Reinhardts (Carmen and Vincent) and Kenneth Rogoff, published in the Journal of Economic Perspectives in 2012, found that when gross government debt exceeds 90% of GDP for more than five years, then economies lose 1/3 of the trend rate of growth. Gross U.S. government debt moved decisively above this 90% threshold ten years ago. As previously stated, the trend rate of growth of real per capita GDP since 1870 is 2.2%. Over the last twenty years the average growth rate has fallen to 1.3%, a loss of slightly more than 1/3 of the yearly growth rate even though the last twenty years included some years in which the debt ratio was not above 90%. If the U.S. economy were on trend, real per capita GDP would be approximately $73,000, almost $13,000 higher than the actual level. RRR also argued that the deleterious effects of high debt levels would build even before reaching the 90% threshold, and indeed they did. This finding leads to the causal explanation that the overuse of debt reflects the law of diminishing returns.

Productivity

Productivity, or output per hour in the nonfarm sector, declined by a record pace over the past ten quarters. Neither a rising standard of living nor increasing corporate profitability are achievable over time without higher productivity. Since January, non-farm payrolls have increased by 1.2 million, but the average workweek has dropped from 34.6 hours to 34.4 hours, leaving aggregate hours worked virtually unchanged. To restore productivity, firms will need to rationalize their workforce, which will simultaneously reduce labor costs, inflation and household purchasing power.

The above paragraphs from Lacy Hunt highlight some of my recent articles on the ridiculously named Inflation Reduction Act, Industrial Production, and declining productivity.

Labor Productivity vs Costs

Labor productivity, costs, and hourly earnings data from BLS, chart by Mish.

Labor Productivity vs Costs Long Term

Productivity Dead Zone

A huge wave of boomers retirements is in progress. Skilled boomers are now replaced with unskilled Zoomers (generation Z), who do not seem to have the same work ethic.

So, it’s no wonder productivity is in the gutter.

For discussion, please see Four to Six PM and Friday Afternoons Are a Productivity Dead Zone

The Fed Reports Abysmal Industrial Production Numbers and Negative Revisions Too

Industrial production data from the Fed, chart by Mish

Recession Lead Times From IP Peaks

In yet another sign of a weakening economy, the latest industrial production report was an outright disaster.

The Bloomberg Econoday consensus estimate was unchanged in May from June. Instead, Industrial production fell 0.5 percent and the Fed revised May from -0.2 percent to -0.5 percent.

For discussion, please see The Fed Reports Abysmal Industrial Production Numbers and Negative Revisions Too

EVs

Also note that Despite Huge Incentives, Supply of EVs on Dealer Lots Soars to 92 Days

Why build cars that nobody seems to want?

President Biden can mandate ridiculous rules, but he cannot force people to buy EVs.

Largest Discrepancy Between GDP and GDI in 20 Years

Real GDP, Real Final Sales, and Real GDI data from BEA, chart by Mish

Economists have given up on the idea of a strong recession, if indeed any at all. That’s despite the fact that GDI suggests a recession may have already started.

Note that we have the Largest Discrepancy Between GDP and GDI in 20 Years

It would be a hoot if recession started just as economists finally gave up on the idea of one happening.

*  *  *

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Tyler Durden
Wed, 07/26/2023 – 21:00

Details Of Secret US-Russia Talks Revealed As Ukraine Counteroffensive In Bad Shape

Details Of Secret US-Russia Talks Revealed As Ukraine Counteroffensive In Bad Shape

New details have been revealed Wednesday related to the Ukraine war, at a moment the West is beginning to admit Ukraine’s counteroffensive is failing, despite billions of foreign military hardware (and counting) shipped to Kiev thus far.

Secret diplomatic talks are ongoing between former senior U.S. national security officials and high-ranking members of the Kremlin, a U.S. official directly involved in the talks has confirmed to The Moscow Times,” the Amsterdam-based publication reports.

While NBC earlier this month first reported on the back-channel discussions described as “discrete” exchanges with top Kremlin officials, Moscow Times interviewed an unnamed US official involved, shedding light on what’s dubbed “track 1.5 diplomacy”

The ongoing meetings have involved Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov representing Moscow, detailed as follows:

Known as track 1.5 diplomacy, these covert discussions enable both sides to understand each other’s red lines and mitigate potential conflicts, serving as a crucial link between official government negotiations (track 1 diplomacy) and unofficial expert dialogues (track 2).

“There is an eminent need for track 1.5 diplomacy when the world gets closed off as it has now,” the US official who is directly involved in the talks said, further confirming twice-a-month meetings, but which are sometimes done remotely online. 

“I have been visiting Moscow at least every three months,” the diplomat told Moscow Times. After in the opening months of the war direct attempts at Russia-Ukraine negotiations collapsed, reportedly thwarted by the US and UK at a moment there was a guiding belief that Ukraine could push back the invasion, US-Russia communications deteriorated to the point of becoming almost non-existent.

However, there was a focus on exchanges of prisoners, as the case of Brittney Griner and Viktor Bout demonstrated. 

Below is a transcript of the US official’s statements, revealing some of what the US delegation has learned (or at least what the US government wants to signal to the public) throughout the back-channel dialogue [emphasis ZH]

* * *

“We were given some access to the Kremlin’s thinking, though not as much as we would have liked.” 

From his vantage point, sitting across from senior Kremlin officials and advisers, it was apparent that the greatest issue was that the Russians were unable to articulate what exactly they wanted and needed. 

“They don’t know how to define victory or defeat. In fact, some of the elites to whom we spoke had never wanted the war in the first place, even saying it had been a complete mistake,” said the official. 

“But now they’re at war — suffering a humiliating defeat is not an option for these guys.”

“It was here that we made clear that the U.S. was prepared to work constructively with Russian national security concerns,” the official added, breaking from the official U.S. line of squeezing Russia financially and isolating it internationally so as to prevent it from continuing its war against Ukraine. 

“An attempt to isolate and cripple Russia to the point of humiliation or collapse would make negotiating almost impossible — we are already seeing this in the reticence from Moscow officials,” he said.

“In fact, we emphasized that the U.S. needs, and will continue to need, a strong enough Russia to create stability along its periphery. The U.S. wants a Russia with strategic autonomy in order for the U.S. to advance diplomatic opportunities in Central Asia. We in the U.S. have to recognize that total victory in Europe could harm our interests in other areas of the world. 

“Russian power,” the official concluded, “is not necessarily a bad thing.” 

Still, the top levels of White House leadership, including President Biden himself, have only presented a stance of wanting to bolster and arm Kiev “for as long as it takes” — but it remains likely that the more that Ukrainian forces are against the ropes, the scenario could emerge of a greater ‘openness’ to serious negotiated settlement among Western officials.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 07/26/2023 – 20:40

Mitch McConnell Escorted Away After Freezing During News Conference

Mitch McConnell Escorted Away After Freezing During News Conference

Can the US get term limits already.

The 81-year-old Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell inexplicably froze and stopped speaking during a weekly Republican leadership news conference Wednesday afternoon, and went silent before he was escorted away.

The Kentucky Republican had been making his opening remarks about an annual defense policy bill when he suddenly stopped talking. The Republican leader was silent for 19 seconds, leaving reporters and senators in stunned silence. His Republican colleagues asked if he was OK, and Sen. John Barrasso of Wyoming, a top McConnell deputy who previously worked as a physician before serving in Congress, escorted McConnell away from the cameras and reporters.

A few minutes later, McConnell walked back to the news conference by himself. When asked about his health, he said he was fine. Asked whether he is fully able to do his job, McConnell said, “Yeah.”

Asked about the episode, a McConnell aide pointed to the GOP leader saying, “I’m fine,” but the aide added that McConnell “felt lightheaded and stepped away for a moment.”

“He came back to handle Q&A, which as everyone observed was sharp,” the aide said.

McConnell spoke to reporters briefly on Wednesday night as he left the Capitol and said, “The president called to check on me.”

“I told him I got sandbagged,” McConnell joked.

Both the White House and a spokesperson for the senator confirmed that Biden and McConnell spoke by phone Wednesday. It was unclear how many extended and inexplicable silences permeated that particular conversation.

Asked by reporters how he was feeling, McConnell said, “I’m fine.” He did not directly answer what happened earlier in the day or whether he saw a doctor.

The Republican leader tripped and fell March 8 after an event for the Senate Leadership Fund — a Republican super PAC aligned with McConnell and GOP leadership — at the Waldorf Astoria in Washington. He was hospitalized with a concussion and a minor rib fracture and was discharged March 13 before entering rehab. McConnell didn’t return to the Senate, however, until mid-April.

House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., told NBC News on Wednesday that he met with McConnell following the Senate GOP leadership press conference for a regularly scheduled meeting “to catch up on both houses.”

“He was good,” McCarthy said. “There was no concerns about his health in the meeting.”

According to NBC, McConnell has served in the Senate since 1985, nearly 40 years ago. He isn’t up for re-election again until the 2026 midterm elections when he will be 84. 

Tyler Durden
Wed, 07/26/2023 – 20:20

Another Aerial Near Miss Over Syria Involving Russian Jet & US Drone: Sixth This Month

Another Aerial Near Miss Over Syria Involving Russian Jet & US Drone: Sixth This Month

“We’ve seen the reports, the early reports, of a second Russian fighter aircraft this week flying dangerously close to our drone” on a mission to counter ISIS in Syria, White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre announced Wednesday.

Few details were provided, but it comes the day after the Pentagon revealed an MQ-9 Reaper drone was damaged in the prior incident after a Russian fighter jet dropped flares on it during a dangerous intercept.

According to The Associated Press, “A Russian fighter jet fired flares and struck another U.S. drone over Syrian airspace on Wednesday, the White House said, in a continued string of harassing maneuvers that have ratcheted up tensions between the global powers.”

It marks the sixth reported incident only this month, and reveals a concerted effort of Russian aircraft to intimidate US warplanes.

DoD, AFP/Getty Images

US officials say a Russian and Iranian campaign is in full swing towards pressuring the US to retreat from the region and halt its military operations. Russian intercepts of US drones are rapidly increasing, with the US each time condemning “unsafe” and “irresponsible”, threatening maneuvers.

Concerning the prior intercept which had been revealed Tuesday—

“One of the Russian flares struck the U.S. MQ-9, severely damaging its propeller,” Lt. Gen. Alexus Grynkewich, the top U.S. Air Force commander in the region, said. “Fortunately, the MQ-9 crew was able to maintain flight and safely recover the aircraft to its home base.”

These ‘harassment’ episodes over Syria appear very similar to the March 14, 2023 event closer to Russia which resulted in an American MQ-9 Reaper drone crashing into the Black Sea. 

A Russian Su-27 fighter jet had intercepted and damaged the drone, at one point dumping fuel on it in mid-air flight. The drone then had to be crash landed in the waters below, and was lost.

In Syria, things could seriously escalate fast between the US and Russia, which had during the height of the Syria war narrowly avoided major exchanges of fire, should an American drone or other aircraft be destroyed due to these increasingly brazen Russian intercepts.

Meanwhile…

Tyler Durden
Wed, 07/26/2023 – 20:00

EV Suspected In Fire Of Massive Cargo Ship Carrying 3,000 Cars

EV Suspected In Fire Of Massive Cargo Ship Carrying 3,000 Cars

A fire on a ship carrying 3,000 cars off the Netherlands coast is suspected of being started by an electric vehicle and killed one sailor, “could burn for days,” the Dutch Coast Guard told AFP News. 

The fire broke out late Tuesday night on board the roll-on, roll-off ship the Fremantle Highway off the northern Dutch coast. “The fire could still burn for days,” stated a coastguard official who spoke on condition of anonymity. 

“The ship is being cooled to keep it stable.

“Only the side of the ship is being sprayed, not the deck,” said the official. 

Fremantle Highway is carrying 3,000 vehicles. Of those vehicles, 25 are EVs, a coastguard official told the NOS public broadcaster, adding there is suspicion that one of those 25 EVs started the blaze.

Rescue ships and helicopters have evacuated 23 crew members. However, one individual lost their life due to the fire. 

Should the vessel sink, “it would be a disaster of the highest order,” the daily paper De Telegraaf said.

Bloomberg ship tracking data shows Fremantle Highway left the German port of Bremen on Tuesday. The vessel appears to have deviated off course around 5 pm local time Tuesday, an indication of possibly when the fire broke out.  

“Currently several parties including salvagers and the Dutch authorities are looking at minimizing the damage as much as possible,” the Coast Guard said.

Shipping company Wallenius Wilhelmsen warned earlier this year: 

Shipping companies are facing an added concern with the increasing demand for electric vehicles. Fires onboard vessels can have catastrophic consequences, and battery fires are extra potent and dangerous. Li-ion batteries generate extreme heat when they malfunction, often reaching temperatures of 800 degrees Celsius or higher. This heat can quickly spread to nearby combustible materials, causing a rapid fire that’s challenging to extinguish.

Controlling battery fires is nearly impossible and might indicate Fremantle Highway could burn for days, if not longer. 

Tyler Durden
Wed, 07/26/2023 – 18:40

IRS Ends Most Unannounced Agent Visits To Taxpayers’ Homes

IRS Ends Most Unannounced Agent Visits To Taxpayers’ Homes

Authored by Tom Ozimek via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The IRS building is seen in Washington on Sept. 28, 2020. (Erin Scott/Reuters)

The IRS has announced a major yet “common-sense” policy change that will put an end to most unannounced agent visits to taxpayers’ homes, mostly because of security concerns.

The move, effective immediately, reverses decades of policy that saw IRS revenue officers knock on the doors of taxpayers’ homes without forewarning in attempts to resolve delinquent tax matters.

The reason for the change, according to a statement by the agency, is to lower the risk that anxiety-provoking surprise home visits by tax enforcement agents could spiral out of control, posing a hazard to both taxpayers and agency field officers.

Experience shows that unannounced door knocks at homes and businesses were high-risk encounters, with agents routinely facing “hazards and uncertainty” when making surprise visits, according to the IRS.

Unannounced visits also created what the IRS called “public confusion” and posed risks to taxpayer safety.

“These visits created extra anxiety for taxpayers already wary of potential scam artists,” IRS Commissioner Danny Werfel said in a statement. “At the same time, the uncertainty around what IRS employees faced when visiting these homes created stress for them as well. This is the right thing to do and the right time to end it.”

‘Common-Sense Step’

Part of the problem, according to the IRS, is that there has been a rise in recent years of scam artists posing as IRS agents, creating confusion for both taxpayers and local law enforcement.

The change comes amid the IRS’s recent rollout of a new Strategic Operating Plan, which seeks, in part, to put a kinder face on the tax enforcement agency.

We are taking a fresh look at how the IRS operates to better serve taxpayers and the nation, and making this change is a common-sense step,” Mr. Werfel said. “Changing this long-standing procedure will increase confidence in our tax administration work and improve overall safety for taxpayers and IRS employees.”

The union for tax agents, the National Treasury Employees Union (NTEU), praised the decision to shift policy regarding unannounced door knocks.

“We applaud Commissioner Werfel’s quick action after hearing the safety concerns raised by NTEU leaders and IRS Field Collection employees who faced dangerous situations that put their safety at risk,” Tony Reardon, president of the NTEU, said in a statement.

He blamed “false, inflammatory rhetoric about the agency and its workforce” for adding to the danger facing field agents.

Read more here…

Tyler Durden
Wed, 07/26/2023 – 18:20