According to a Deloitte survey released on Wednesday, back-to-school (BTS) spending, the second-largest spending event for families after the holiday season, is anticipated to decline for the first time in nine years. The survey’s findings indicate that consumers are struggling amid the two-year inflation storm, raising concerns about the success of “Bidenomics.” 

Deloitte found that elevated inflation has crushed household budgets:

“Although parents were willing to endure higher prices last year for replenishing BTS items after the pandemic, 18 months of inflation have changed their tune. Uneasiness about the economic situation is creating price sensitivity and causing parents to reassess how they’ll approach shopping for the upcoming school year.” 

Parents across three income groups are expected to reduce BTS spending by 10% year-over-year, with average spending per child sliding to $597. The overall BTS market will likely contract for the first time in nine years to $31.2 billion, compared with $34.4 billion in 2022. 

“As persistent inflation weighs on parents, many are having to make strategic decisions when it comes to their BTS budgets this year,” the report said. 

Parents are concentrating on spending on school supplies (+20%) while reducing spending on apparel (–14%) and tech (–13%). 

About 51% of BTS shoppers anticipate a weakening economy in the next six months versus 54% in 2022. If Bidenomics was such a success, why all the gloom across all income classes? 

“This back-to-school season is all about economizing. Consumers are looking to save by shopping early, searching out deals, prioritizing spend to essential school supplies … they’re on the hunt for those bargains,” Stephen Rogers, executive director at Deloitte’s Consumer Industry Center, said.

Considering BTS is the second biggest spending event for households, the first decline in spending in nine years does not bode well for the economy as inflation crushes households. Just wait until September rolls around and student debt payments restart.

Via Common Dreams,

At least tens of thousands of Israelis on Tuesday took to the streets, shutting down highways, and marching through the country’s main international airport in a “day of disruption” after the nation’s far-right governing coalition advanced a deeply controversial overhaul of the legal system critics condemn as a “judicial coup.”

Demonstrators thronged the highways leading to cities including Tel Aviv, Jerusalem, and Haifa, pitching tents, blocking roadways, and hanging banners from overpasses. At Ben Gurion International Airport near Lod, thousands of protesters defied police warnings and marched through the arrivals hall.

Israeli police said at least 66 people were arrested. Widespread police violence—including spraying water cannons at protesters, charging into crowds on horseback, and an attack on at least one journalist—was recorded and posted on social media.

Ami Eshed, Tel Aviv’s police commander, resigned last week due to what he claimed was political interference by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s far-right government and its desire to use excessive force to quash the ongoing pro-democracy protests. “I could have easily met these expectations by using unreasonable force that would have filled up the emergency room… at the end of every protest,” Eshed said on Israeli television.

Protesters—some of whom flew in from as far afield as the United States—represented a broad cross-section of Israel’s center and left wing; however, Israeli-American journalist Emily Schrader said on Twitter that she “saw dozens of people screaming” at demonstrators opposing the illegal Israeli occupation of Palestine “to get out of the protest.”

נמות ולא נחיה בדיקטטורה. את זה הם יבינו בדרך הקשה. pic.twitter.com/yRmg3JKVeD

— רם כהן – Ram Cohen (@ramcohen10) July 11, 2023

Speaking at a Tel Aviv protest, opposition leader Benny Gantz of the National Unity party said that “ultimately, the protests will block this judicial coup.” Gantz implored police to refrain from violence: “These are not enemies. You don’t use this force on citizens.”

One protester named Grace told Middle East Eye that she believes “Israel is deteriorating towards complete dictatorship and corruption, and we are trying to stop it. Whatever laws this government doesn’t like, it cancels, so all the power goes into government hands and away from the public.”

“The message we have for the government is no one here will agree to live in a dictatorship,” she added. “We are seeing an extreme government that wants to create an extreme country, and we don’t want that to happen. We are going to show them that the power of the people is stronger than that of the people in power.”

עימותים קשים בתל אביב: מכת״זית הופעלה לעבר המפגינים https://t.co/s0cjEwIepX

📸 דוברות המשטרה pic.twitter.com/aOz5W2kK28

— החדשות – N12 (@N12News) July 11, 2023

Hundreds of Israel Defense Forces reservists specializing in cyberwarfare reacted to Monday’s parliamentary vote by announcing they will stop reporting for duty. “We will not continue to develop cyber capabilities for a criminal regime, and we will not train the future generation of offensive cyber,” the reservists said in a statement. “Our work cannot continue under such a severe legal and moral cloud.”

Hundreds of members of the women-led Bonot Alternativa movement rallied outside the U.S. consulate in Tel Aviv to protest the judicial bill, with another demonstration planned for Tuesday afternoon at the Israeli consulate in New York. “The Israeli government is destroying Israel as we know it—a Jewish and democratic state—it is harming the independence of the courts… banishing women from the public sphere, and harming our core democracy,” Bonot Alternativa said in a plea to U.S. President Joe Biden.

“The members of the ‘most extreme’ government, as President Biden put it, are attacking freedom of expression, the right to protest, and the rights of women and minorities,” the group added. “Don’t stand by. Don’t let the Jewish state be destroyed.”

The White House on Tuesday urged Israeli authorities to respect protesters’ rights. “As the administration has said, both U.S. and Israeli democracy are built on strong institutions, checks and balances, and an independent judiciary,” a U.S. National Security Council spokesperson told Haaretz.

Horse mounted police officer TAKING DOWN a protester!

This is unreal! Entirely unnecessary Police brutality at its finest. This is Ben Gvir’s doing. This is Netanyahu’s doing.

Welcome to the Dictatorship formerly known as Israel. pic.twitter.com/UpTMsB63zt

— Or-ly Barlev in English (@OrlyBarlevEng) July 11, 2023

“The president has said consistently, both privately and publicly, that fundamental reforms like this require a broad basis of support to be durable and sustained,” the spokesperson added. “The president has been clear he hopes Prime Minister Netanyahu will work to find a genuine compromise.”

Tuesday’s protests were sparked by Israeli lawmakers’ overnight 64-56 vote to provisionally support a key piece of the highly contentious judicial overhaul that would repeal the “reasonableness” standard used by the Supreme Court to overrule egregious government decisions like then-Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin’s refusal to fire Cabinet Minister Aryeh Deri, leader of the ultra-Orthodox Shas party, after a 1993 fraud and bribery indictment.

The broader plan, proposed earlier this year by Israeli Justice Minister Yariv Levin—a member of Netanyahu’s Likud party—would allow a 50%+1 parliamentary majority to override rulings issued by the Supreme Court, which also sits as the High Court of Justice and has been accused by human rights groups of giving legal cover to war crimes and crimes against humanity including apartheid and the illegal occupation of Palestine.

החסימה בכביש 4 גשר דרורים pic.twitter.com/vzR6KT4TX8

— Or-ly Barlev ~ אור-לי ברלב (@orlybarlev) July 11, 2023

The proposed reforms would also increase government control over judicial appointments and make it more difficult for the Supreme Court to annul legislation by requiring the assent of more justices. Furthermore, Levin’s proposal would turn legal advisers who serve government ministries from professional appointees accountable to the attorney general into political appointments controlled by Cabinet ministers.

Critics have accused Netanyahu—who faces multiple criminal corruption charges—of attempting to weaken the judiciary in a bid to boost his chances of dodging prosecution. Netanyahu is prohibited from personal involvement in the judiciary overhaul due to a conflict of interest related to the charges against him.

FBI Director Christopher Wray is set to appear before the House Judiciary Committee Wednesday morning at 10 a.m. ET, where he is expected to face questions over the weaponization of his agency against former President Donald J. Trump, the FBI and the DOJ, appeared to give Hunter Biden the kid glove treatment in comparison, and how the FBI influenced Twitter to censor conservatives, particularly those amplifying the Hunter Biden laptop story.

This will be Wray’s first appearance in front of the House Judiciary Committee since Republicans won the House and Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH) became its chair. Jordan says they will “examine the politicization” of the FBI under Wray and Attorney General Merrick Garland.

Watch live:

Wray will also likely face questions over the FBI’s cover-up up the claim that Burisma’s owner had secret recordings between he and the Bidens as an ‘insurance policy,’ which the agency stonewalled in the production of supporting documents.

“These recordings were allegedly kept as a sort of insurance policy for the foreign national in case he got into a tight spot,” said Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-IA). The 1023 also indicates that then-Vice President Joe Biden may have been involved in Burisma employing Hunter Biden,” he continued. “More than that, the FBI made Congress review a redacted unclassified document in a classified facility. That goes to show you the disrespect the FBI has for Congress.”

As Graham J. Noble notes in Liberty Nation, who opines on the partisan nature of the FBI.

Wray can certainly argue that political considerations play no part in how he runs the FBI, but the perception, for a great many Americans, is quite the opposite. It doesn’t help Wray’s case that his disgraced predecessor, James Comey, has emerged as a partisan and fierce critic of Trump. Wray is a lot less pompous and a great deal more careful, but he’s got his work cut out for him if he is to come away from Capitol Hill with more trust from Republicans than he currently enjoys.

Meanwhile, 2024 presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy has 15 questions for Wray:

1. If U.S. voters in 2024 elect a U.S. President who seeks to shut down the FBI, what is your recommended plan to help execute on this policy directive in an orderly manner?
 
2. John Durham issued a lengthy report in May accusing the FBI of acting negligently in opening the Trump-Russia investigation in 2016 based on insufficient information. As head of the Bureau, after having read and reflected on Mr. Durham’s report, what steps will the Bureau take to prevent baseless politicized investigations like that which impeded President Trump’s first term in office?
 
3. In 2020, you claimed ANTIFA was an “ideology, not an organization.” Do you still believe that? If yes, who or what exactly do you believe destroyed downtown Portland, firebombed businesses, and attacked the city courthouse for months?
 
4. Regarding the events of January 6 at the Capitol, there have been multiple reports suggesting that undercover FBI agents were involved in fomenting protesters. Can you clarify the FBI’s precise role in this situation and provide explanation of the facts?
 
5. Considering cases like the Gretchen Whitmer “kidnapping plot,” do you think the FBI does a responsible job of handling informants and undercover agents? Do you believe FBI-led entrapment is and should be unlawful?
 
6. Will you share the Jeffrey Epstein client list with the public?
 
7. Will you investigate members of Congress who used a taxpayer slush fund for hush money to hide sexual assault allegations?
 
8. What is your opinion about the Department of Justice labeling concerned parents at school board meetings as “domestic terrorists?” Do you share this view?
 
9. The unprecedented raid of former President Trump’s Mar-a-Lago residence raised serious public concerns about the political persecution of the current president’s chief political opponent. What alternatives did you evaluate before sending FBI agents to raid the residence of a former U.S. President?
 
10. The FBI’s handling of investigations into Hunter Biden’s foreign business deals and Joe Biden’s involvement in these deals leave many unanswered questions about the Bureau’s decisions. Why do you believe that a settlement between Hunter Biden and the U.S. Department of Justice for a 10+ year-old offense was announced only within a couple of weeks following the federal indictment of the 45th U.S. President?
 
11. Why did the FBI refuse to cooperate with Congress with respect to oversight inquiries pertaining to then-Vice President Joe Biden’s alleged involvement in a $5 million bribery scheme with a Ukrainian company?
 
12. Is the FBI investigating Gen. Mark Milley for his supposed back-channel discussions with the Communist Chinese government shortly after the 2020 U.S. Presidential election?
 
13. How many FBI agents were fired last year? How many should have been fired?
 
14. Your predecessor James Comey received a multimillion-dollar book deal and charges six-figure speaking fees. Do you believe this is appropriate behavior for the former Director of the FBI?
 
15. Do you believe it is appropriate for the FBI to celebrate the legacy of J. Edgar Hoover, the namesake of the building in which the FBI is currently headquartered?

After what seemed an eternity of sequential CPI beats, the tide has finally turned according to the BLS, and today’s inflation print came below expectations across all metrics in both headline and core, MoM and YoY. More importantly, this was the 12th straight month of YoY declines, matching the longest streak of drops recorded during the Great Depression.

The weak core CPI reading for June – matching our forecast, but lower than the consensus — is likely the start of a string of readings over the next few months that will show annualized core inflation running close to the Fed’s 2% target. The Fed is all but certain to hike by 25 basis points in July, but the favorable CPI report will bolster voices on the FOMC arguing that July’s hike should be the final one — matching our baseline.

And while expectations were for a dovish report (as we correctly previewed in “CPI Preview: “Dovish Prints More Likely Than Hawkish” As Headline Inflation Slides To 3%”), and the final number came in even weaker than expected pushing the inflation arrow in the right direction, the Fed has clearly communicated they believe the risks of being too dovish outweigh the risks of being too hawkish.

As such as Bloomberg chief economist Anna Wong writes, the weak core CPI reading for June “is likely the start of a string of readings over the next few months that will show annualized core inflation running close to the Fed’s 2% target” and while the Fed is all but certain to hike by 25 basis points in July, the favorable CPI report will bolster voices on the FOMC arguing that July’s hike should be the final one.

Below we recap several other kneejerk reactions from Wall Street strategists and traders.

Here is Neil Birrell, CIO at Premier Miton Investors:

Beyond the next meeting, matters are less clear and the chances of the Fed pulling off what many thought was impossible are rising; growth is robust and inflation is falling.

Andrew Hunter at Capital Economics:

The muted 0.2% m/m rise in core consumer prices in June won’t stop the Fed from hiking rates again later this month, but it supports our view that the downward trend in core inflation is set to accelerate over the second half of the year.

Jay Hatfield, CEO of Infrastructure Capital Advisors:

This CPI release demonstrates that inflation is rapidly declining, with PPI likely to come in close to zero on a year over year basis. And while the Fed will commit yet another policy error by raising rates in July, it will likely pause in September as inflation data continues to decline and the economy decelerates.

Megan Horneman, CIO at Verdence Capital Advisors:

Even if this print came in softer than expected, it’s not still not enough for the Fed to say their job is done. I don’t think they are going to be cutting… The market is too optimistic about the path and timing on rate cuts. We think they are going to stay higher for longer, they told us that.

David Russell, Vice President of Market Intelligence at TradeStation

This report suggests that inflation is easing as the optimists hoped, with shelter costs following the bulls’ script. It’s now easier to anticipate further improvements because of its lagging nature. Other categories like transportation and used-car prices bolster arguments for the Fed pausing soon. This is no longer just a commodity-driven story. Slowly but surely the tsunami of inflation is receding. With the Fed’s target rate now more than 200 basis points above headline CPI, investors might think yields have indeed peaked.

Rubeela Farooqi, chief US economist at High Frequency Economics:

The three parts of inflation Chair Powell has highlighted, core goods, core services, and core services ex-shelter all slowed to end the second quarter. While inflation remains elevated, the deceleration will be welcome news to policymakers. But these data are not likely to change the outcome of the July meeting, with a 25-bps rate hike most likely. As for the future path of policy, incoming information on inflation, the labor market as well as considerations about credit conditions will determine whether the FOMC is done raising rates or if more tightening is needed. Based on our current assessment of inflation and the labor market, after hiking in July, we think the FOMC is likely to maintain rates at 5.4%, through year-end.

Anna Wong and Stuart Paul of Bloomberg economics:

The weak core CPI reading for June – matching our forecast, but lower than the consensus — is likely the start of a string of readings over the next few months that will show annualized core inflation running close to the Fed’s 2% target. The Fed is all but certain to hike by 25 basis points in July, but the favorable CPI report will bolster voices on the FOMC arguing that July’s hike should be the final one — matching our baseline.

Chris Low, of FHN Financial:

Can inflation stay this low? At the moment, it is unlikely, especially with the economy now growing across a wider front. Strong real income growth undermines the effectiveness of tightening, and government spending is still providing a powerful boost to growth. We expect little further progress reducing inflation through the rest of this year.

Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY:

Today’s numbers mean the Fed will hike this month — and be done. Given our outlook, and the Fed’s communicated intent to slow the pace of tightening by going at every other meeting, we don’t foresee any additional rate hikes beyond July.

Matt Miskin, co-CIO for John Hancock Investment Management:

There’s a lot to like in this CPI report. It solidified our view of one more rate hike of the cycle and a pause after that. Sure there are things that can change from here, but if further disinflation comes in, it’s just going to continue to cause yields to fall and pricing out a lot of that ‘higher for longer’ that had been priced back in over the last couple months.

Erik Norland, senior economist at CME Group:

[C]ore inflation has remained at the relatively high level of 4.8% year on year largely because of a 7.8% rise in ‘owners’ equivalent rent’ which assumes that homeowners pay themselves rent. If one excludes owners’ equivalent rent and calculates core US CPI in the same manner as the European Harmonized CPI, core inflation would be running at only about 3% YoY.

Robert Tipp, chief investment strategist at PGIM Fixed Income,

Tipp tells Bloomberg TV he is not ready to call the widely expected rate hike in July as the last. While it “feels good” to get a print like this, he said he thinks the Fed will not risk having inflation reaccelerate.

Ian Lyngen of BMO Capital Markets:

It’s an impressive read and one that has confirmed the effectiveness of Powell’s actions and offers evidence that inflation’s period of stickiness is coming to an end. This is a good report for the Fed and suggests July’s move will be a dovish hike.

Bloomberg Economics’ Stuart Paul:

Just 42% of spending categories show annualized monthly price growth above 4%, down from 69% in February 2022. The share of categories experiencing outright deflation has been growing, with 44% of spending categories experiencing monthly price declines. Increased inflation diffusion was critical for identifying inflation momentum in mid-2021, and the turning of the tides so far this year supports our view that disinflation in important categories like housing — and deflation in others, such as core goods — will help the Fed achieve its inflation mandate. Leaning against labor demand to rein in inflation in core services ex-housing will be critical for the Fed to keep inflation near the target over the long run. Rents rose 0.46% month on month and OER rose 0.45%, far lower than the 0.65%-0.8% pace they had maintained since mid-2022 until this March. We expect the sharp declines in measures of new-lease prices since 2021 to show up more clearly in the CPI rent measures in coming months. With rent components accounting for about 33% of CPI — and about 15% of the Fed’s preferred PCE price index — current indications are that these critical components are on track to return to pre-pandemic rates, smoothing the Fed’s path to the 2% inflation target.

Ryan Sweet at Oxford Economics

The Fed has painted itself into a corner as Fed officials’ communication has signaled that another rate hike this month is essentially a slam dunk. However, the new data could give the Fed reason to debate whether any further rate hikes after this month are needed.

Mike Loewengart, head of model portfolio construction at Morgan Stanley Global Investment Office

This print is welcome news and sets an optimistic tone as earnings kick off. As for the Fed’s rate path the inflation arrow may be pointing in the right direction, but the Fed has clearly communicated they believe the risks of being too dovish outweigh the risks of being too hawkish.

One of Blue Origin’s BE-4 rocket engines exploded seconds into a test at the end of June, a “destructive setback” for Jeff Bezos’ space company, according to CNBC.

The incident occurred on June 30 at Blue Origin’s West Texas testing facility. On the condition of anonymity, CNBC spoke with people who watched the testing video and described a “dramatic explosion that destroyed the engine and heavily damaged the test stand infrastructure.” 

The BE-4 engine that exploded was undergoing testing and was originally scheduled to be completed by the end of this month. Those people said the engine was destined to ship to Blue Origin’s customer United Launch Alliance to power the Vulcan Centaur. The engines are also used to power Blue Origin’s New Glenn rocket.

BE-4 Engine

On Tuesday, Blue Origin confirmed to CNBC that it “ran into an issue while testing Vulcan’s Flight Engine 3.” 

“No personnel were injured and we are currently assessing root cause,” the company said. “We already have proximate cause and are working on remedial actions.”

No footage of the incident was released. Here’s a 2019 test of a BE-4 rocket. 

The company also said it would “continue testing” engines in West Texas and “Would be able to meet our engine delivery commitments this year and stay ahead of our customer’s launch needs.” 

However, CNBC noted, “BE-4′s test failure threatens to further push back the already-delayed first Vulcan launch.” 

ULA is a space rocket venture between Boeing and Lockheed Martin, which competes with Elon Musk’s SpaceX. Any delays to ULA launches could be beneficial to SpaceX. 

Earlier this year, SpaceX was granted a rocket pad at a military base in Southern California, positioning itself to compete for Pentagon contracts to launch spy satellites.

Authored by Katabella Roberts via The Epoch Times,

The Department of Justice does not believe former President Donald Trump was immune from civil action as a public official when he allegedly made defamatory statements against author E. Jean Carroll in 2019 and will therefore not defend him.

The decision marks a U-turn for the DOJ, which had previously defended Mr. Trump in a lawsuit filed against him by Ms. Carroll in 2019.

She accused the then-president of defaming her when he denied having raped her in a dressing room at the Bergdorf Goodman department store in Manhattan in 1995 or 1996.

In its previous decision, the DOJ had cited the Westfall Act, which protects federal workers from common law tort lawsuits when they are engaged in the duties of their jobs, and said Mr. Trump was acting in the scope of his employment as president when he made a series of public statements denying he raped Ms. Carroll.

Lawyers for Mr. Trump, who have unsuccessfully attempted to dismiss the lawsuit, have also argued he should be granted absolute presidential immunity in the case.

However, in a July 11 letter (pdf) to the attorneys for Mr. Trump and Ms. Carroll, Principal Deputy Assistant Attorney General Brian Boynton said the DOJ is now reversing its previous decision as it can no longer conclude Mr. Trump was acting in his capacity as president when he made the allegedly defamatory statements about Ms. Carroll.

This, the DOJ said, is owing to new guidance from a Washington, D.C. court regarding what constitutes the scope of an employee’s duties.

(Left) President Donald Trump comes out of the Oval Office from the White House on Sept. 16, 2019. (Right) E. Jean Carroll leaves following her trial at Manhattan Federal Court in New York on May 8, 2023. (Mandel Ngan, Stephanie Keith/Getty Images)

Protections Under the Westfall Act

That new guidance makes it clear that not every statement made by federal workers is protected under the Westfall Act just because it is made using official channels of communication. Further, the DOJ argues that there is no clear evidence that Mr. Trump’s statements were motivated by “more than an insignificant” desire to serve the U.S. government.

“[T]he Department has determined that it lacks adequate evidence to conclude that the former President was sufficiently actuated by a purpose to serve the United States Government to support a determination that he was acting within the scope of his employment when he denied sexually assaulting Ms. Carroll and made the other statements regarding Ms. Carroll that she has challenged in this action,” Mr. Boynton wrote.

“The evidence of Mr. Trump’s state of mind, some of which has come to light only after the Department last made a certification decision, does not establish that he made the statements at issue with a ‘more than insignificant’ purpose to serve the United States Government,” he added.

“The evidence of personal motivation that has been developed in this case outweighs any public-purpose inference one might draw in other circumstances,” he continued.

“After balancing and weighing the evidence from Mr. Trump’s deposition, the jury verdict in Carroll II, and the new allegations in the Amended Complaint, the Department has determined that there is no longer a sufficient basis to conclude that the former President was motivated by ‘more than an insignificant’ desire to serve the United States Government. Accordingly, the Department hereby declines to issue a new Westfall Act certification,” Mr. Boynton concluded.

Robbie Kaplan, Ms. Carroll’s attorney in the case, welcomed the DOJ’s letter.

“We are grateful that the Department of Justice has reconsidered its position,” Mr. Kaplan said in a statement to Axios on Tuesday. “We have always believed that Donald Trump made his defamatory statements about our client in June 2019 out of personal animus, ill will, and spite, and not as President of the United States.”

E. Jean Carroll speaks onstage during the How to Write Your Own Life panel at the 2019 Glamour Women Of The Year Summit at Alice Tully Hall in New York on Nov. 10, 2019. (Ilya S. Savenok/Getty Images for Glamour)

Carroll Files Second Lawsuit

Ms. Carroll also filed a second lawsuit against Trump in 2022 accusing him of battery and defamation after the New York State Legislature passed a law known as the Adult Survivor Act, which grants victims of certain sexual offenses a one-year window to file a civil lawsuit against alleged offenders.

The writer won in her second defamation suit against Trump in May and a jury ordered he pay her $5 million in damages, including $2 million in damages for sexual abuse and around $3 million for defamation.

The nine-member jury found that Ms. Carroll did not prove that Trump raped her but instead found that the businessman and 2024 presidential candidate sexually abused her.

Mr. Trump is currently appealing that verdict.

A trial for Ms. Carroll’s first lawsuit against Mr. Trump is set to begin on Jan. 15, 2024. She is seeking at least $10 million in damages.

Earlier on Tuesday, Ms. Carroll’s legal team asked a judge to dismiss a countersuit filed by the former president claiming she defamed him by repeating her claims that he raped her.

Her lawyers called the countersuit Mr. Trump’s latest effort to “spin” his trial loss after his lawyers claimed the writer made the false statements with “actual malice and ill will with an intent to significantly and spitefully harm and attack” his reputation, as the “false statements were clearly contrary to the jury verdict.”

They further argued that Mr. Trump had filed his counterclaim against Ms. Carroll too late in an effort to further delay “this otherwise trial-ready, much-delayed case.”

The Epoch Times has contacted Mr. Trump for further comment.

Expectations for this morning’s headline CPI print were for a plunge from 4.0% YoY to 3.1% YoY (due to shelter, used-cars, and seasonals); however, what The Fed will be watching for is Core Services CPI Ex-Shelter, which fell to +3.93% YoY – the lowest since Jan 2022…

Source: Bloomberg

Notably the MoM increase in Core Services CPI Ex-Shelter was just 0.09% – the smallest MoM rise since Sept 2021.

The headline CPI rose just 0.2% MoM (below the 0.3% MoM expected) which dragged the headline down to +3.0% YoY (cooler than expected) – the lowest since March 2021..

Source: Bloomberg

This is the 12th straight month of YoY declines in headline CPI – equaling the longest streak of declines in history (since 1921)…

Core CPI fell to 4.8% YoY – the lowest since Oct 2021…

Source: Bloomberg

The monthly core increase — 0.2% in June — was the smallest 1-month increase in that index since August 2021.

The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2 percent in June. Here are the components:

• The shelter index increased 0.4 percent over the month after rising 0.6 percent in May.

• The index for rent rose 0.5 percent in June, and the index for owners’ equivalent rent increased 0.4 percent over the month.

• The index for lodging away from home decreased 2.0 percent in June after increasing 1.8 percent in May.

The shelter index was the largest factor in the monthly increase in the index for all items less food and energy.

• June Rent inflation 7.83% YoY, down from 8.04% and lowest since Dec ’22

• June Shelter inflation 8.33% YoY, down from 8.66% and lowest since Nov ’22

While Shelter accounted for over 70% of the increase in the monthly CPI, this is still a badly lagging indicator and has yet to catch down to the real time.

The problem is that real-time indexes have again inflected higher.

Among the other indexes that rose in June was the index for motor vehicle insurance, which increased 1.7 percent, and the index for apparel which increased 0.3 percent.

• The indexes for recreation and personal care also increased in June.

Several indexes declined in June, led by the airline fares index, which fell 8.1 percent over the month following declines in April and May.

• The index for communication fell 0.5 percent over the month.

• The household furnishings and operations index fell 0.1 percent over the month, after declining 0.6 percent in May.

• The index for new vehicles was unchanged in June.

• The medical care index was unchanged in June, after increasing 0.1 percent the previous month. The index for physicians’ services rose 0.7 percent over the month, while the index for hospital services increased 0.4 percent.

Services inflation remains very sticky, even as Goods inflation fades…

Source: Bloomberg

Under the hood, these are the biggest drivers of the YoY drop in headline and core CPI…

And the biggest drivers of the MoM change…

For the first time in 27 months, ‘Real’ wage growth rose YoY in June (+0.6%)…

Source: Bloomberg

It appears M2 signaled that the ‘stickiness’ is over and a tsunami of deflation is about to hit…

Source: Bloomberg

Here’s what to expect from markets (via Goldman):

• >0.5% S&P sells off at least 200bps (5% probability)

•  .4 – .5% S&P sells off 100 – 200bps (10% probability)

•  .3 – .39% S&P sells off 0 – 100bps (30% probability)

•  .2% – .29% S&P rallies 0 – 100bps (35% probability)

•  .1% – .19% S&P rallies at least 100bps (15% probability)

•  < .1% S&P rallies at least 175bps (5% probability)

So expect stocks to rise from here, since, regardless of where you sit in the Fed debate, inflation decelerated in June to the slowest pace in more than two years. That’s the headline takeaway from today.

However, as Bloomberg notes – The questions now are: Is this a genuine turning point?

Does it reflect a material slowdown in the economy and how will the Fed respond?

Remember, policy makers in the 1970s were blamed for cutting rates at the first sight of inflation easing — only to be later blamed for policy error.

Authored by Bryan Jung via The Epoch Times,

Meta’s answer to Twitter, Threads, launched worldwide this week with the exception of EU member countries.

The new Instagram-linked app, which is now available in 100 countries, so far has no plans to launch in the EU, likely due to privacy regulations in the bloc.

There are obviously very strong concerns over the processing of data of EU citizens, as Meta has been penalized by the bloc’s data protection watchdogs in recent months.

The company has already informed the Irish Data Protection Commission that it has no plans to launch Threads in Europe, reported The Irish Times.

So far, Meta has not officially commented on the alleged issues with EU law. But it has not been actively blocked by the Irish regulators, which serves as Brussels’ lead privacy enforcer.

The company seems to be figuring out how to launch its app in the EU, due to its stringent rules around data protection.

EU Privacy Rules Likely a Deterrent For Threads in Europe

The EU’s incoming Digital Markets Act, which will enforce new rules on how online “gatekeeper” platforms can function in Europe, must now be taken into consideration.

More guidance on how social media companies can be approved by the European Commission for gatekeeper status will be released in September.

Meanwhile, recent court rulings in the EU against Meta are also likely behind the delay in the app’s launch.

EU authorities said in January that the legal basis that Meta had been using to process its personal data from European Facebook and Instagram users to run targeted ads was unlawful.

Meta was hit with $435 million worth of fines, with the big tech firm appealing the ruling.

The European Court of Justice (ECJ) later ruled on July 4 that Meta’s Facebook could not use “legitimate interest” to justify processing user data for advertising.

This effectively shut down Meta’s targeted ad model.

The ECJ also ruled that EU watchdogs could take into consideration tech companies’ violations of data privacy in antitrust investigations.

These decisions are some of several legal assaults by the EU on the foundations of Meta’s business model and on big American tech companies in general.

Meta was also barred from transferring Facebook user data from the EU to the United States and was fined $1.3 billion after a crackdown by European privacy regulators in May.

The penalty followed a long investigation into transfers by Facebook of Europeans’ personal data overseas, which is a violation of EU privacy law.

The company is currently going through the courts to have the decision reviewed. If upheld, the ruling could be the death knell for Facebook in the EU, reported Quartz.

Some Europeans Already Have Illegal Access to Meta’s New App

Data privacy experts said they didn’t believe that the latest court rulings were considered a major factor in Meta’s decision, as a new agreement between Brussels and Washington is pending that would create a legal basis to transfer data to America.

Despite Meta’s shutout from the bloc, there are many EU citizens already using Threads, with some using several workarounds to get the app onto their devices.

This means that Meta is processing the data of EU citizens, even if it is intending to avoid that.

Some methods include having access to an app store account outside the EU, sideloading it into an Android device outside the Google Play Store, or using a virtual private network, which can fake a location to make it appear that the user is living in a country where Threads can be downloaded.

“Meta’s failure to launch Threads in the EU is more to do with making a point about European regulation than the business case for launching,” Niamh Burns of Enders Analysis, a media research group, told The Hollywood Reporter.

Ms. Burns noted that the setup of the new app, which involves bundling Instagram and Threads to create a “captive audience,” will not allow you to delete your Threads account without deleting Instagram.

This “is the kind of thing European regulators hate,” she said.

Critics warn that Thread’s privacy policy admits that it is designed to track everything about its users; from location, employment, and browsing history, to health and financial data, in order to better facilitate targeted advertising.

The data would be sent to “service providers” and “analytics partners,” also known as third-party advertising and marketing firms.

In fact, those factors would be in total violation of EU privacy rules.

Brewing Rivalry

The rivalry between Twitter CEO Elon Musk and Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg has been getting increasingly tense, after Musk noticed that the rival Threads app closely resembled Twitter visually.

The Meta CEO said he created Threads as a response to Twitter and hoped that his app, will be an alternative to the platform, which has seen both improvements and chaos after his rival Mr. Musk bought the platform.

Mr. Zuckerberg said more than 30 million people signed up to use Threads in the first 24 hours after its launch.

Within hours of Thread’s launch, Mr. Musk threatened to sue Mr. Zuckerberg, and on July 6, Twitter sent a cease & desist letter to Meta over the new social media app, ABC News reported.

Twitter accused Meta of hiring dozens of former Twitter employees who still have access to the social media platform’s trade secrets, calling Threads a “copycat.”

An attorney representing Twitter, Alex Spiro, accused Meta of hiring former Twitter employees to develop Threads, with the intent to engage in the “systemic, wilful, and unlawful misappropriation of Twitter’s trade secrets and other intellectual property.”

“With that knowledge, Meta deliberately assigned these employees to develop, in a matter of months, Meta’s copycat ‘Threads’ app with the specific intent that they use Twitter’s trade secrets and other intellectual property in order to accelerate the development of Meta’s competing app, in violation of both state and federal law as well as those employees’ ongoing obligations to Twitter,” wrote the Twitter legal team.

A few days after filing the claim, the Twitter CEO attacked Mr. Zuckerberg, posting, “Zuck is a cuck.”

Meta communications director Andy Stone posted a statement on Threads in relation to the lawsuit, saying, “No one on the Threads engineering team is a former Twitter employee—that’s just not a thing.”

U.S. copyright law does not cover ideas, so Twitter would need to prove that intellectual property was stolen if the case goes to court.

This is not the first time that Meta has closely copied rival products in the past, including the 2020 launch of Instagram’s Reels feature, which is very similar to TikTok’s short 20-second video format.

The Epoch Times has reached out to Meta for comment.

By Charles Kennedy of OilPrice.com,

After months of high crude oil exports by sea, Russian shipments have started to show the first signs of a decline as they dropped below the levels from February, the baseline for Russia’s oil production cut of 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) that Moscow says began in March.   

Russian crude oil exports by sea dropped by 205,000 bpd to 3.21 million bpd on a four-week average basis in the four weeks to July 9, tanker-tracking data monitored by Bloomberg showed on Tuesday.

The latest four-week average export volumes fell below the 3.38 million bpd in the four weeks to February 26, after holding up above that level for months, according to the data reported by Bloomberg’s Julian Lee.

The main reason for the lower seaborne exports was significantly reduced shipments from Russia’s western ports, the data showed.

In the week to July 9, seaborne crude exports out of Russia dipped to 2.86 million bpd, which was 1 million bpd lower than in the previous week, and with no signs of maintenance at ports that had dragged shipments down two weeks ago. Most of the weekly decline in shipments – 80% — was due to lower volumes leaving Russia’s western ports, which used to ship crude to Europe before the embargo.

The observed decline in Russian crude oil exports on a four-week average basis comes just as Russia said last week that it would cut its crude oil exports by 500,000 bpd in August in a bid to ensure a balanced market.

Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, the top oil official in Russia and lead OPEC+ negotiator, didn’t give any figures as to the volume of the Russian production and exports for August, nor the baseline from which the cut would be made.

The August cut in exports would mean an additional cut in oil production by 500,000 bpd in August, Novak’s office told Russian daily Vedomosti.