A federal judge in Louisiana denied a request by the Biden DOJ to delay an order he issued last week which bans federal agencies from communicating with social media companies.

Judge Terry Doughty refused to pause his July 4 nationwide injunction, as well as an alternative request for a seven-day pause while it petitions the 5th US Circuit Court of Appeals.

In his Monday ruling, Doughty defended his order against the DOJ’s claims that it’s overly broad and unclear in terms of what types of communications are no longer allowed. Doughty wrote that the government isn’t entitled to a delay in enforcing his order because they were likely to lose on the merits of the case, and slammed the DOJ for failing to identify a specific example of activity that would be hurt in the meantime.

While last week’s ruling involves several different agencies, “it is not as broad as it appears,” he wrote, adding “It only prohibits something the Defendants have no legal right to do — contacting social media companies for the purpose of urging, encouraging, pressuring, or inducing in any manner, the removal, deletion, suppression, or reduction of content containing protected free speech posted on social-media platforms. It also contains numerous exceptions.”

The Biden administration wants to put the communications ban on hold while it challenges Doughty’s 155-page opinion concluding the government likely violated the First Amendment in its efforts to persuade tech companies to take steps to limit the spread of misinformation and fake accounts, especially during the pandemic.

In asking for a reprieve, government attorneys argued the judge’s order was too broad, unclear and would interfere with the ability of federal agencies to work with tech companies “on initiatives to prevent grave harm to the American people and our democratic processes.” -Bloomberg

The order bars the feds from “urging, encouraging, pressuring, or inducing” social media companies to remove or restrict content protected by the First Amendment – however exemptions exist for communications about criminal activity, threats to national security, election integrity issues, and other “permissible public government speech.”

The case is State of Louisiana v. Biden, 3:22-cv-01213, US District Court, Western District of Louisiana (Monroe)

🚨🚨BREAKING- Missouri v. Biden –

The judge in the case has DENIED the stay on the temporary injunction. pic.twitter.com/Ki1hHd2vmK

— Tracy Beanz (@tracybeanz) July 10, 2023

Via Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com,

Analyst and financial writer John Rubino has been warning for years that a systemic crash was always in the cards because of the enormous unpayable debt buildup.  The debt for America has never been more extreme. 

Now, there is a new wrinkle in the equation for an elite class wanting to hang onto power, and that is war – a nuclear war. 

Rubino says:

“These neocon chickenhawk psychopaths who are running Biden’s foreign policy are going to try to extend U.S. domination around the world.  5% of the world’s population is going to rule the other 95% of the population in perpetuity.  They see this as a ‘New American Century’ to be imposed by force, and they are willing to risk nuclear war to do that.  It’s baffling.”

Even if there is no wider war, Rubino says a systemic crash is closer than ever because of the massive amount of debt that even the common man knows will never be paid back.  Rubino says, “You cannot borrow the amount of money we have borrowed, it’s something like $700 trillion if you add everything in . . . it’s many times the GDP.”

“You can’t take on that kind of debt and then go back to normal.  Normal is over.  This would be like you or me borrowing $20 million on credit cards.  There is no way you can go back to normal.  The guys in charge of monetary policy are pretending they don’t know that or they actually don’t know that…

You can’t tell whether they are an idiot or an evil genius…

It is clear that they are not correct when they say they can give us a ‘soft landing’ and get us back to organic sustainable growth.  You cannot borrow this kind of money without a gigantic crisis to wipe out that debt.”

There is some good news as Rubino contends:

“They are telling us bigger and bigger and more ornate lies.  More and more people are starting to see through those lies.”

Rubino says this is a phenomenon called a ‘trust horizon,’ and it is shrinking for most people.  Rubino explains,

“Right now, people are trusting fewer and fewer of those big distant systems, and they are looking closer to home.  Would you trust the governor?  Maybe not, but you might trust the mayor because they can meet the mayor and shake hands with him.  You might trust the local farmers because you don’t trust the big food companies anymore…

And that’s what is happening in society right now.  The trust horizon is shrinking back to a local level.”

When it comes down to it, Rubino thinks we will all be facing only two choices to get rid of all the unpayable debt.  Rubino says,

“When the first domino falls and starts knocking the other dominos over, the government is looking at a 1930’s style deflationary depression as everybody defaults on their debt, or they come back with a gigantic bailout because it is the only other thing they can do…

They give up on inflation . . . and create as many new trillions of dollars that it takes to stop the bleeding.  Then currencies start falling and inflation starts spiking, and basically, it’s game over.”

One of these two choices is coming sooner than you think, according to Rubino.

There is much more in the 40-minute interview.

Join Greg Hunter as he goes One-on-One with financial writer John Rubino and his new enterprise called Rubino.Substack.com for 7.8.23.

*  *  *

To Donate to USAWatchdog.com Click Here

Rubino is watching the new BRICS currency that is going to be launched around August 22 of this year.  Rubino says this is a huge deal with very big negative consequences for the U.S. dollar.  Rubino is coming back next month just before the BRICS currency launches and promises to give us a deep dive on how it will affect you and the rest of the world.

John Rubino is a prolific financial writer, and you can see some of his work for free at Rubino.Substack.com.  There is even more cutting-edge original information and analysis if you subscribe.

Authored by James Howard Kunstler via Kunstler.com,

The Blob Begins To Quiver

“…the Permanent State lacks the courage to take hard decisions – to say to Moscow, ‘Let us put this unfortunate episode (Ukraine) behind us. Dig out those draft treaties you wrote in December 2021, and let’s see how we can work together, to restore some functionality again to Europe’.”

– Alasdair Crooke

When you deny what is self-evident, you are at war with reality, and that never ends well.

This is the ultimate disposition of our country’s years-long misadventure in maximum dishonesty. The American administrative Blob has not just lied about everything it does, but used the government machinery at hand to destroy everything it touches in a terminal-hysterical effort to cover up its misdeeds – including especially its crimes against its own people.

Get this: there is no way that Ukraine can avoid defeat in its US-provoked struggle with Russia. Russia has every advantage. It is next door to Ukraine. It has robust arms production capacity. The terrain of the war is its own historic “borderland,” which it has controlled since the 18th century, except for the past thirty years when Ukraine functioned as Grift Central for US military contractors and their political enablers. Despite massive arms assistance from the US and grudging contributions from the NATO contingent in Europe, there is almost nothing left of the Ukrainian military in troops, equipment, and munitions. Ukraine will return eventually to demilitarized “borderland” status.

What are NATO’s alternatives now?

It can try to return to negotiation. Russia has no reason to trust that process, given how the Minsk 1 and 2 accords worked out (NATO and the US willfully and dishonestly voided them).

The US and NATO could send their own troops into Ukraine, but that would be suicide, considering the alliance’s arms and munitions drawdown and America’s feminized army.

The US could go a little further and provoke a nuclear exchange (suicide by other means) — and given the level of terminal-hysterical insanity in the US Blob, that’s not out of the question.

One likely, reality-based alternative is to stand by and let Russia complete its Special Military Operation to pacify and neutralize Ukraine. The prevailing theory is that this would be the end of America’s world dominance militarily, and effectively the end of NATO, but also the end financially for the US, as the non-West abandons the dollar. In that scenario, the BRICs dump their trillions in US bond holdings, sending all that putative “money” back to America, stoking a king-hell inflation, effectively bankrupting us. It would be the final fruit of the disastrous “Joe Biden” regime imposed on us via election fraud by the Blob: the US reduced in a few short years to a broke, socially disordered, marginalized power susceptible to its own political breakup — not a tantalizing outcome, but perhaps better than turning the planet Earth into a smoldering ashtray.

That outcome would force our country to turn inward and face its own stupendous failures of honor, decency, and integrity. It would be the end of the Blob’s hegemony inside the USA. The question is whether the Blob sets America’s house on fire in the attempt to save itself and escape a legal accounting for its crimes. One kindling stack already burning is the pile-up of jive prosecutions aimed at Mr. Trump. You know that the attempt to kick him off the game-board using Special Counsel Jack Smith may easily lead to severe civil disorder, and possibly a counter-coup, a US first!

The current Mar-a-Lago “Doc Box” case is as much a complete fabrication as were RussiaGate and Impeachment Number One — Mr. Trump’s telephone inquiry to Ukraine about the Biden family grifting operations there, now firmly documented to be true. An upright judge would summarily dismiss the Mar-a-Lago case and slam sanctions on the US attorneys involved, including disbarment and criminal investigation for mounting a maliciously fraudulent prosecution. AG Merrick Garland and his deputy, Lisa Monaco, obviously would have some ‘splainin’ to do, possibly before juries.

A long list of public figures populating the Blob await a reckoning: Hillary and Bill Clinton and their retainers, Barack Obama and retinue, John Brennan, James Clapper, James Comey, Christopher Wray (plus Rosenstein, Strzok, McCabe, Carlin, Ohr, Mueller, Weissmann, Horowitz, Atkinson, Ciaramella, Vindman), Rep. Adam Schiff, Senator Mark Warner, William Barr, Avril Haines, Marie Yovanovitch, William Burns, James Boasberg, Marc Elias, Michael Bromwich, David Laufman, Alejandro Mayorkas, Xavier Baccera, Anthony Fauci, Rochelle Walensky, Francis Collins, Lloyd Austin. Mark Milley, Antony Blinken, Jake Sullivan, Ron Klain, Nancy Pelosi, Liz Cheney… the list goes way on, but there’s a start.

The weeks of summer 2023 are the fulcrum for a great public attitude adjustment. The Blob’s psy-ops are finally failing among just enough of the formerly mind-fucked to tip the national consensus against the gang behind all this treasonous political depravity. Even the so-called mainstream media is running scared. If they happened to turn in a desperate act of self-preservation, it will be all over for the Blob.

*  *  *

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After a turbulent week for stocks and especailly for bonds, where 10yr yields closed the week above pre-SVB levels for the first time since that major accident and 2yr yields traded briefly above 5% for the first time too, the direction of travel in markets over the next several weeks will be set by US CPI on Wednesday and as DB’s Jim Reid writes this morning, “will take something remarkable elsewhere for it not be the most important event this week.”

Additionally, there is also plenty of Fed speak before and after the release (at least 9 Fed speakers on deck) so their response to it and to payrolls last Friday will be very closely watched too. The other highlights in the US include the Beige Book (Wednesday), PPI, jobless claims (both Thursday), and the University of Michigan survey (Friday) which includes the important inflation expectations series. In addition, Friday sees JPMorgan, Citigroup and BlackRock report as Q2 earnings season slowly starts this week.

Over in Europe, notable economic indicators include the Euro and German ZEW survey (tomorrow), UK’s labour stats (tomorrow), and the UK monthly GDP report (Thursday). The ECB account of their June meeting (Thursday) will be another interesting release given the increased pricing of a September hike in markets of late.

Staying with central banks, the Bank of Canada decision on Wednesday will also be of note. Markets are expecting a 25bps hike now after strong Canadian payrolls on Friday.

Going through a few points in more detail now.

For US CPI, DB economists (full preview available in full here to pro subs) expect a +0.20% mom gain for headline CPI (vs. +0.12% previously, consensus +0.3%) and a +0.28% increase for core (vs. +0.44%, consensus +0.3%) which would have the YoY rate for the former dropping by a full percentage point to 3.1%, while that for the latter would drop by 30bps to 5.0%, both in line with consensus. This would leave the three- (4.6% vs. 5.0%) and six-month annualized (4.8% vs. 5.1%) core rates still well above the Fed’s target.

Another piece of the inflation puzzle will come from the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment survey on Friday. The focus will likely be on whether the drop in 12-month inflation expectations will prove sustainable, after the latest reading of 3.3% was the lowest since March 2021 (consensus 3.1% this month) and now converging back to the long-term series which is at 3% at the moment.

In the UK, the labor market stats tomorrow (including the crucial wages number) will be important given recent big Gilt moves.

There will be a few events to watch in geopolitics as well this week, starting with US President Biden’s current trip to Europe from yesterday to Thursday. It will also include NATO’s annual summit in Vilnius held tomorrow and Wednesday, where Ukraine’s potential membership path will be a key point to watch. The G20 finance ministers and central bankers meeting will take place in Gandhinagar on July 14-18.

Finally, as noted above, earnings season begins this Friday when we get JPMorgan, Citigroup and BlackRock report Q2 earnings.

Here is a day-by-day calendar of events courtesy of DB

Monday July 10

• Data: US May wholesale trade sales, consumer credit, China June CPI, PPI, Japan June Economy Watchers Survey, bank lending, May trade balance, Canada May building permits
• Central banks: Fed’s Barr, Daly, Mester and Bostic speak, ECB’s Herodotou speaks, BoE’s Governor Bailey speaks

Tuesday July 11

• Data: US June NFIB small business optimism, UK May weekly earnings, June jobless claims change, Japan June M2, M3, machine tool orders, Italy May industrial production, Germany and Eurozone July ZEW survey
• Central banks: ECB’s Villeroy speaks

Wednesday July 12

• Data: US June CPI, Japan June PPI, May core machine orders
• Central banks: Fed’s Beige Book, Fed’s Bostic, Barkin, Kashkari and Mester speak, ECB’s Vujcic and Lane speak, BoE’s Governor Bailey speaks, BoE’s financial stability report, BoE’s Breeden and Foulger speak, BoC decision

Thursday July 13

• Data: US June PPI, monthly budget statement, initial jobless claims, China June trade balance, UK May monthly GDP, trade balance, industrial production, index of services, construction output, Germany May current account balance, Eurozone May industrial production
• Central banks: ECB’s account of the June meeting, Fed’s Waller speaks
• Earnings: PepsiCo, Delta Air Lines

Friday July 14

• Data: US July University of Michigan survey, June import and export price index, Japan May capacity utilization, Italy May trade balance, general government debt, Eurozone May trade balance, Canada June existing home sales, May manufacturing sales
• Earnings: JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, BlackRock, UnitedHealth, Wells Fargo, EQT AB, Ericsson

* * *

Finally, focusing on just the US, Goldman writes that the key economic data releases this week are the CPI report on Wednesday and the University of Michigan preliminary report on Friday. There are several speaking engagements from Fed officials, including governors Barr and Waller, and presidents Daly, Mester, Bostic, Barkin, and Kashkari.

Monday, July 10

• 10:00 AM Wholesale inventories, May final (consensus -0.1%, last -0.1%)
• 10:00 AM Fed Governor Barr speaks: Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr will participate in a discussion at the Bipartisan Policy Center on bank supervision and regulation, including new capital requirements. A moderated Q&A is expected. On June 20, Barr said, “Instead of thinking of a stressful scenario and then seeing how it would play through on, say, the balance sheet of a firm, you look at a bank and you say, well, what would it take to break this institution? What are the different ways this institution could die, or a piece of it, a significant piece of it?” He added, “We’re not an institution that moves quickly on supervisory issues. We tend to have a culture that makes it difficult for the institution to act quickly with respect to supervision.”
• 11:00 AM San Francisco Fed President Daly (FOMC non-voter) speaks: San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly will discuss inflation and bank supervision at the Brookings Institution. A moderated Q&A is expected. On May 22, Daly said, “We have to be extremely data-dependent…Meeting-by-meeting decisions become really the most prudent path…If we’ve tightened too much, we can easily create an unforced error.”
• 11:00 AM Cleveland Fed President Mester (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester will discuss the economic and policy outlook at a virtual event hosted by the University of California at San Diego. Speech text and a Q&A with audience are expected. On May 26, Mester said, “What I’d like to do is get…to a level of the funds rate where I could say, OK, in my mind, there’s [an equal probability the next move is] up or down, whenever that move would be. And I don’t think we’re there yet because I think inflation has just…remained stubborn.”
• 12:00 PM Atlanta Fed President Bostic (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic will participate in a discussion at the Cobb Chamber of Commerce. A Q&A with audience and media is expected. On June 29, Bostic said, “We have reached a level of the nominal federal funds rate that should be sufficient to move inflation toward the 2% target over an acceptable timeframe.” He added, “The data, survey results, and on-the-ground intelligence constitute a reasonable case that gradual disinflation will continue…I believe that will happen, even if the Committee does not increase the federal funds rate.”

Tuesday, July 11

• 06:00 AM NFIB small business optimism, June (consensus 89.9, last 89.4)

Wednesday, July 12

• 08:30 AM CPI (mom), June (GS +0.25%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.1%); Core CPI (mom), June (GS +0.22%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.4%); CPI (yoy), June (GS +3.08%, consensus +3.1%, last +4.0%); Core CPI (yoy), June (GS +4.93%, consensus +5.0%, last +5.3%): We estimate a 0.22% increase in June core CPI (mom sa), which would lower the year-on-year rate by four tenths to 4.9%. Our forecast reflects a pullback in auto prices (used -1.2%, new -0.2%, mom sa) reflecting lower used car auction prices and the further rebound in new car inventories and incentives. We also expect declines in travel categories due to residual seasonality, as well as additional moderation in shelter categories (we estimate +0.47% for both rent and OER). On the positive side, we expect another large gain in the car insurance category as carriers continue to offset higher repair and replacement costs. We estimate a 0.25% rise in headline CPI, reflecting higher food (+0.2%) and energy (+0.7%) prices.
• 08:30 AM Richmond Fed President Barkin (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin will discuss inflation at a local chamber of commerce. A Q&A with audience is expected. On June 16, Barkin said, “I want to reiterate that 2% inflation is our target, and that I am still looking to be convinced of the plausible story that slowing demand returns inflation relatively quickly to that target. If coming data doesn’t support that story, I’m comfortable doing more. I recognize that creates the risk of a more significant slowdown, but the experience of the ’70s provides a clear lesson: If you back off inflation too soon, inflation comes back stronger, requiring the Fed to do even more, with even more damage. That’s not a risk I want to take.”
• 09:45 AM Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari (FOMC voter) speaks: Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari will participate in a panel discussion on banking solvency and monetary policy at NBER’s Summer Institute event. On May 22, Kashkari said, “Do we then start raising again in July? Potentially, and so that’s the most important thing to me is that we’re not taking it off the table. Markets seem very optimistic that rates are going to fall now. I think that they believe that inflation is going to fall, and then we’re going to be able to respond to that. I hope they’re right. But nobody should be confused about our commitment to getting inflation back down to 2%.”
• 01:00 PM Atlanta Fed President Bostic (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic will participate in a discussion on financial inclusion at the bank’s 2023 Payments Inclusion Forum. A moderated Q&A with audience is expected.
• 02:00 PM Beige book, July FOMC meeting period: The Fed’s Beige Book is a summary of regional economic anecdotes from the 12 Federal Reserve districts. The Beige Book for the June FOMC meeting period noted that economic activity was little changed overall in April and early May. Consumer spending was steady or higher in most districts and although expectations for growth deteriorated slightly, contacts largely expected further expansion in activity. In this month’s Beige book, we look for anecdotes related to the impact of stress in the banking system on lending, growth, and sentiment, as well as commentary related to the evolution of labor market tightness and inflationary pressures.
• 02:00 PM Senate Banking Committee Markup on Fed Nominations: The Senate Banking Committee will hold an executive session on the nominations of Philip Jefferson as Fed vice chair, Lisa Cook for a full term as governor, and Adriana Kugler as a governor.
• 04:00 PM Cleveland Fed President Mester (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester will discuss FedNow at an NBER Summer Institute event. Speech text and a Q&A with audience are expected.

Thursday, July 13

• 08:30 AM PPI final demand, June (GS +0.2%, consensus +0.2%, last -0.3%); PPI ex-food and energy, June (GS +0.2%, consensus +0.2%, last +0.2%); PPI ex-food, energy, and trade, June (GS +0.2%, consensus +0.1%, last flat)
• 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended July 8 (GS 240k, consensus 250k, last 248k); Continuing jobless claims, week ended July 1 (consensus 1,720k, last 1,720k)
• 06:45 PM Fed Governor Waller speaks: Fed Governor Christopher Waller will deliver remarks on the economic outlook at an event hosted by Money Marketeers. Speech text and a moderated Q&A with audience are expected. On June 16, Waller said, “We’re seeing policy rates having some effects on parts of the economy. The labor market is still strong, but core-kind of inflation is just not moving and that’s going to require probably some more tightening to try to get that going down.” He added, “I do not support altering the stance of monetary policy over worries of ineffectual management at a few banks.”

Friday, July 14

• 08:30 AM Import price index, June (consensus -0.1%, last -0.6%); Export price index, June (consensus flat, last -1.9%)
• 10:00AM: University of Michigan consumer sentiment, July preliminary (GS 65.0, consensus 65.5, last 64.4); University of Michigan 5-10-year inflation expectations, July preliminary (GS 3.0%, consensus 3.0%, last 3.0%): We expect the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index to increase by 0.6pt to 65.0 and for the report’s measure of long-term inflation expectations to be unchanged at 3.0%, reflecting flattish gasoline prices and diminished uncertainty related to banking stress.

Source: DB, Goldman, BofA

Authored by Steve Watson via Summit News,

Presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has blasted Joe Biden’s decision to send cluster bombs to Ukraine, calling it part of a “ceaseless escalation” that is endangering the planet.

Kennedy noted in a tweet that former Biden Press Secretary Jen Psaki admitted last year that the use of cluster bombs constitutes a war crime.

“Now President Biden plans to send them to Ukraine. Stop the ceaseless escalation! It is time for peace,” RFK Jr. added.

He also noted that Biden has historically opposed monstrous cluster bombs, but is now seemingly not all that bothered.

Biden was opposed to cluster bombs In 1982 as well, when he opposed their sale to Israel. What happened to his conscience?

— Robert F. Kennedy Jr (@RobertKennedyJr) July 8, 2023

Here is Psaki making the aforementioned admission in 2022:

BREAKING: Here is Jen Psaki in 2022 saying that using cluster bombs is a war crime

The Biden Admin is sending cluster bomber to Ukraine today pic.twitter.com/dSMKqumDm1

— Jack Poso 🇺🇸 (@JackPosobiec) July 7, 2023

In separate posts, Kennedy pointed out how practically every civilised nation has banned cluster bombs because of how horrific they are and how many innocent people, including children, are killed by them:

These munitions scatter bomblets across the landscape. Many fail to explode — until children pick them up later. They have caused thousands of injuries and deaths to civilians.

— Robert F. Kennedy Jr (@RobertKennedyJr) July 7, 2023

Cluster bombs are supposed to be used as a weapon of last resort. But we were told Russia is divided + Ukraine is winning the war. Why not use the opportunity to propose a favorable peace? #Kennedy24

— Robert F. Kennedy Jr (@RobertKennedyJr) July 9, 2023

Hey Americans, is this what you really want? War with Russia? Seriously? If that ISN’T what you want, call your Senators and demand they keep us out of war. You can find their contact info here. Call them!https://t.co/cbKE5OGEkV

— Robert F. Kennedy Jr (@RobertKennedyJr) July 10, 2023

The Biden administration announced plans to primarily send to Ukraine M864 155-millimeter artillery shells, known as Dual-Purpose Improved Conventional Munitions (DPICM).

The UK, Spain, Germany & Canada have all issued statements condemning the use of such munitions.

When questioned by a reporter Sunday on why the U.S. is now doing this, Biden replied “We’ve run out of ammunition.”

Joe Biden wasn’t supposed to say the quiet part out loud: “We’ve run out of ammunition”. But now that the cat’s out of the bag, one must ask whether continued support of Ukraine’s military is even feasible as the conflict rages on. pic.twitter.com/jddIrHlSM8

— Ian Miles Cheong (@stillgray) July 9, 2023

He also claimed this was the reason on CNN:

“It took me a while to be convinced to do it,” President Biden tells @FareedZakaria about his decision to send cluster bombs to Ukraine as its ammunition supply runs low. pic.twitter.com/eQNyYSHn1h

— Kaitlan Collins (@kaitlancollins) July 7, 2023

The White House ludicrously claimed on Friday that Ukraine says it will use the cluster bombs ‘carefully’:

W.H.’s @JakeSullivan46: “Ukraine has provided written assurances” that they will use our cluster bombs “in a very careful way” pic.twitter.com/C2xq8NXeye

— Tom Elliott (@tomselliott) July 7, 2023

Fortunately for Biden, there’s no anti-war left in the US Congress to bother him about this.

There are a few left-ish commentators, otherwise loyal to Democrats, who are making some noise about it, but by and large this will go forward without protest.https://t.co/DxH3SnEWWj

— Glenn Greenwald (@ggreenwald) July 7, 2023

*  *  *

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Update (1100ET): A fire that broke out Monday in oil storage tanks in Iran’s Bandar Abbas has been extinguished, state-run IRNA reports, citing a province official.

Oil prices are fading back lower on the headlines…

*  *  *

As we detailed earlier, Iranian state-run IRNA news is reporting that a large fire is engulfing the major Bandar Abbas oil refinery, considered among the largest in the Middle East with a reported refining capacity of more than 300,000 BPD.

“A Fire broke out at the Bandar Abbas oil refinery located in the south of Iran, the student-led Young Journalists Club news agency reported on Monday,” Reuters has confirmed. Multiple social media videos via state media sources currently show a very large blaze and thick plumes of smoke over the port city which lies on the southern coast.

Hormozgan Province, #Iran
Huge fire in Bandar Abbas Oil refinery pic.twitter.com/8bV9B4SmHJ

— Aleph א (@no_itsmyturn) July 10, 2023

There are initial reports of at least four injuries as emergency crews are dispatched to battle the blaze. The reservoirs reportedly at center of the emergency belong to the Aftab Oil Refining company.

As yet, there’s been no indicator of the cause of the fire. Typically a large-scale Iranian infrastructure explosion or fire raises the possibility of external sabotage, given that Israel has long targeted Iranian energy, particularly nuclear sites. 

State media videos have confirmed a large blaze at Bandar Abbas…

Hormozgan Province, #Iran
IRGC-affiliated Fars News Agency reports that fire broke out in Bitumen storage tanks belonging to the Aftab Oil Refining Co in west of Bandar Abbas. pic.twitter.com/tfDbGGWHdQ

— Aleph א (@no_itsmyturn) July 10, 2023

A follow-up report in the official IRNA news agency said, “According to statements by local sources, efforts have been started to extinguish the fire, but there is a possibility of fire spreading and nearby reservoirs exploding.”

developing…

By Stefan Koopman, Senior Macro Strategist At Rabobank

The Global Daily is a publication of a Dutch bank, but it rarely discusses Dutch politics. Historically, the Netherlands is known for its financial stability and ‘poldermodel’ decision-making, so financial markets often have better things to focus on. However, the opportunistic manner in which Prime Minister Rutte pulled the plug on his fourth (and final) cabinet did grab international attention, as it caught his coalition partners completely off guard. They are expected to respond in kind: a vote of no confidence in the Prime Minister – initiated by opposition parties – is expected to be submitted today. The goal is to appoint a technocrat as caretaker until a snap election can be held in November. The collapse means that no ‘controversial’ decisions can be taken until there is a new government and that the status quo will be maintained.

This all adds to the degree of disillusionment among the Dutch electorate. The collective sentiment is that Rutte’s manoeuvres regarding asylum policy are entirely driven by power politics. While it is true that society struggles with large migrant inflows, which the housing market and the education system can’t handle, it is also true that the VVD government, under the influence of Dutch business, strives for more labour migrants in order to solve for structural worker shortages. As such, Rutte’s VVD decided to set sights on the much smaller group of asylum seekers – and their families in particular – knowing in advance that this would corner their junior partner ChristenUnie and precipitate the fall of the coalition. That may be electorally opportunistic, but if the VVD was truly serious about reducing immigration, they would have done something about labour migration flows. However, this would negatively affect various key sectors of the Dutch economy, such as high-tech, professional services, education, distribution, food and agri, and horticulture, and that’s not something the VVD probably would ever consider.

The question is what this will achieve. After all, Rutte’s fourth cabinet faced numerous crises, struggled to reach compromises, and relied on self-imposed deadlines and vague promises to mask its lack of power. Taking advantage of the low interest rates of late-2021, a significant amount of money was made available to achieve progress on key issues such as the energy transition, nitrogen emissions, the housing market and migration. It would have allowed some of the necessary financial interventions to be implemented relatively painlessly. Yet the lack of clear plans, delayed decision-making, an overall inability to address pressing issues, and the increasingly difficult funding environment as time progressed, made this coalition increasingly fragile.

The VVD seems to believe that new elections will result in a workable right-wing coalition, seeing it as the right timing given the ongoing increase in the BoerBurgerBeweging’s popularity at the expense of the CDA, D66’s poor polling and the still-incomplete merger between the PvdA/GroenLinks. Whether this strategy pays off rests with the voters, but also depends on the willingness of other parties to try their luck with Rutte’s VVD. Current sentiment is that he may have pushed his luck too far this time.

That being said, a US non-farm payroll report has a bigger impact on markets than the collapse of the Dutch government, so let’s get back to it. Amidst the Great Confusion of 2021, one of the prevailing narratives was that “no one wanted to work” anymore. The story was that workers were quitting in large numbers, resisting returns to the workplace, and embracing self-employment. These stories were supported by evidence of declining labor force participation and increased job vacancies. It particularly impacted consumer-facing businesses like restaurants and hotels, which struggled with persistent shortages and needed to pay up.

This narrative was also completely wrong. The June Employment Report revealed that 80.9% of Americans aged 25-54 (considered “prime age”) were employed, the highest rate in over twenty years and only one percentage point below the record high of April 2000. While overall labor participation still lags pre-pandemic levels, every age group has now returned to pre-pandemic participation levels except for those aged 65+. While there have been some earlier than expected retirements, describing these as “early” would be inaccurate unless there is a demand for grandparents to re-join the workforce.

The ADP’s nowcast of the official US nonfarm payrolls suggested half a million jobs could have been added in June, prompting a big sell-off in both equities and bonds on Thursday. Instead, actual payrolls printed below-consensus for the first time in more than a year. As hopes were so high, the 209k rise was a bit disappointing, even more so in light of the -110k of net revisions. So it does look like employment growth is cooling, but it also seems that we’re still at a healthy pace of growth that absorbs new inflows and keeps the labour market relatively tight. Average hourly earnings growth had its third successive 0.4% m/m print, remaining sticky at 4.4% y/y. All in all, the report had something for the doves and for the hawks and is not likely to change the July rate hike that is widely anticipated.

It also stands in sharp contrast to China, which continues its slide into the world of deflation. This morning, China CPI came in at 0.0% y/y while factory prices declined sharply by -5.4% y/y. The CPI has now fallen for a fifth consecutive month, indicating weak consumer demand and a clouded growth outlook. As a result, there is an increasing need for more economic stimulus. However, due to the current levels of debt and the ongoing real estate crisis, we do not anticipate any significant economic stimulus measures. We could see more strategic sectors receiving tax breaks, and some stimulus may come in the form of additional investments in digital infrastructure such as data centres, cloud computing, and the semiconductor sector. However, demand-side stimulus would likely be more effective given the disappointing revival of domestic consumption so far.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has concluded her visit in China. While no agreements on US-China disputes were announced, she did confirm that Washington will open up a channel of communication with China’s economic team and that it is open to respond to unintended consequences of its own actions. She again tried to reassure her Chinese counterparts that the US doesn’t want to decouple or separate its economy from China, but that it mainly tries to “de-risk” trade in ‘narrowly’ targeted areas that are relevant to national security. That is easier said than done.

She also suggested that the possibility of a US recession cannot be entirely dismissed. In combination with confirmation of weak demand and excess supply from China, this leads to a subdued start of the week. European equities are down -0.3% in the first hour of trading, following last week’s big sell-off. Government bond yields are little changed, with the two-year German note down 2bp to 3.22% and the 10-year unchanged at 2.63%. The dollar is up 0.1% vis-à-vis the euro and trades at 1.095.

One in three residents of Seattle may leave the Democratic stronghold due to skyrocketing crime and the high cost of living, according to a Seattle Times/Suffolk University poll published last month.

Approximately 33% of those polled said they were ‘seriously considering’ moving out of the city, vs. 67% who said they have no plans to move. Among those who say they’re considering leaving, 37% blame rising costs, while 34% cited public safety as a primary concern.

Of those considering leaving, renters (44%) were the majority, followed by 27% of homeowners. Those with lower incomes, particularly those making under $20,000, were more likely to blame soaring home prices. The same group understandably also reported experiencing housing insecurity and homelessness at the highest rates.

In May, Washington governor Jay Inslee signed 10 bills aimed at solving the housing crisis by making home ownership more affordable.

“Homelessness is a housing crisis,” said Inslee.

Those in the highest income bracket who make over $250,000 per year, and are more likely to own homes, reported that public safety was their primary concern.

80% of those who are ‘seriously considering’ moving rated Seattle poorly as a place to live, while 66% said they don’t feel safe in their own neighborhood.

That said, among the 2/3 of those polled who say they have no plans to move, 88% rated the city as an excellent place to live, while 72% said they felt safe in their own neighborhood.

The cost of living in the Seattle metro region has exploded over 20% over the last three years – with the area’s home price index now 40% higher than in  2018, while wages have failed to keep up with these increases in costs. Highly-paid tech and finance workers are skewing the city’s income average, according to the Epoch Times.

Moving patterns revealed these residents were more likely to move out of the county’s wealthiest neighborhoods. While lower-income residents moved less often, they were more likely to move out of the Puget Sound region altogether.

About 65% of residents considering leaving said the city’s ability to progress on homelessness had worsened, and 60% rated the quality of education as poor.

According to new Census Bureau data, many people are moving to Florida, which has experienced a population growth of over 22 million people from 2021 to 2022.

The 1.9% increase was the largest of any US state over this period, exceeding Idaho and South Carolina, which saw their populations grow by 1.8% and 1.7%, respectively.

“While Florida has often been among the largest-gaining states, this was the first time since 1957 that Florida has been the state with the largest percent increase in population,” said US Census Bureau demographer, Kristie Wilder.

Authored by Andrew Wilford via RealClearMarkets.com,

Wealth tax proposals have been all the rage among progressive politicians of late, despite the many pitfalls of attempting to tax unrealized gains.

But a case the Supreme Court just took up could render taxation of unrealized gains constitutionally untenable.

Moore v. United States looks at a provision in the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA). One of the ways that legislators offset the foregone revenue from tax cuts was through a one-time “deemed” repatriation of earnings from U.S. citizens’ shares of foreign corporations.

Put simply, the deemed repatriation provision acted as if Americans with shares in foreign corporations (above a minimum threshold) had received a dividend representing their share of that corporation’s profits going back to 2006. Never mind that they hadn’t received this dividend — the TCJA treated them as if they had.

In this sense, the deemed repatriation provision acted very much like a wealth tax. Though corporate shares gain value as the corporation in question is profitable, investors’ gains from these shares are entirely theoretical until they either sell their shares or benefit from those corporate profits in the form of a dividend. The “deemed repatriation” ignored the distinction in American tax law between realized income (which is usually taxable) and unrealized income (which usually isn’t). 

One couple affected by the deemed repatriation provision, Charles and Kathleen Moore, chose to challenge it in court. Though they had never received any dividends or sold their 13 percent stake in an Indian company that provides agriculture tools to impoverished Indian communities, they were hit by a tax bill under the TCJA just the same. Now, their challenge finds itself before the Supreme Court.

The case hinges upon the interpretation of the Sixteenth Amendment to the Constitution. Prior to the ratification of the Sixteenth Amendment in 1913, the Constitution granted Congress the power to levy “direct” taxes only if they were equally proportioned among the states — in other words, they could only be levied on a per capita basis.

The Sixteenth Amendment allowed Congress to ignore this proportionality requirement for “income” taxes specifically. That’s fairly straightforward for normal “income” taxes on wages, dividends, or capital gains — in other words, “realized” income that directly benefits the taxpayer. But whether the Sixteenth Amendment applies to unrealized income, where a taxpayer’s net worth increases but their cash on hand remains the same, is the question before the Court.

While the case will, of course, hinge upon legal interpretations, the distinction between realized and unrealized income is obvious to most taxpayers. When you receive cash (or an electronic deposit to your checking account), it’s easy enough to set aside part of that for your tax obligations. On the other hand, if your car’s theoretical sales price increases, as many did during the pandemic, it makes little sense for Uncle Sam to demand his share unless you actually go ahead and sell.

A ruling explicitly describing unrealized income as capital, rather than income, for the purposes of the Sixteenth Amendment would effectively place a judicial stamp of disapproval on wealth tax proposals of all stripes. That would effectively end some of the zanier ideas coming from the left.

Of course, wealth taxes should be something that Congress avoids because they’re bad policy, are an enormous headache and costly to administer, and harm entrepreneurship. But given that those have never been good enough reasons to stop Congress from doing things in the past, a judicial veto wouldn’t hurt either.

A San Francisco group that stands for “car-free spaces, transit equity, and the end of car dominance” is behind a wave of “coning” driverless cars owned by Waymo and Cruise. 

Members of the Safe Street Rebels, a group that states cars are “polluting, dangerous & murderous,” are coning driverless cars across the city, which disables the vehicle and forces it to stop. 

Here is some of the footage of coning incidents:

“Coning” a driverless car forces some of them to have to be hard reset. It’s done as a form of protest against the autonomous vehicles.

So now people are gonna start bullying robots? That’s how it all starts … 🤔 pic.twitter.com/BIbst8CbKO

— Wall Street Silver (@WallStreetSilv) July 9, 2023

Week of Cone – Night One was a hit! Keep sending in your coning submissions 🦄 pic.twitter.com/c4KZLbFvhy

— ConeSF – Week of Cone (@SafeStreetRebel) July 6, 2023

According to ABC7 in San Francisco, the rebellious group has called for a “Week of Cone” ahead of this Thursday’s meeting, where the California Public Utilities Commission will vote to allow Cruise and Waymo to expand operations across the metro area. 

One member of the group told the local media outlet:

“Expanded and basically unfettered access to city streets is basically a bad idea.

“Residents never got a chance to have a say in this, never really consented to be used a human guinea pigs.”

We’re surprised this group is not affiliated with taxi or Uber drivers who risk being displaced by autonomous taxis in the next several years.