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Millennials Lead The Way On The Great Migration From California To Texas

Millennials Lead The Way On The Great Migration From California To Texas

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

Movers seek to reap the benefits of a friendlier housing market in Texas.

California to Texas Migration Intensifies

This data is a little stale. I suspect the trend may be greater now.

StorageCafe reports California to Texas Migration Intensifies

  • California to Texas is the most popular interstate relocation route in the U.S., only challenged by New York to Florida, with 93K people making the move

  • 2021 was a record-breaking year in terms of California to Texas move-ins, with roughly 111,000 people taking the route

  • In 2021, about 1 in 2 people who migrated from CA to TX were millennials

According to data from the American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates, the number of people leaving the Golden State for the Lone Star State has grown by 36 percent between 2016 and 2021 while the migration stream from all other states to Texas did not change, rising a mere 0.1 percent. Californians accounted for a little bit more than 15 percent of persons migrating to Texas from other states between 2017 and 2021.

Median Home Prices 

Top CA to TX Moving Routes for Renters

The Benefits of Texas Over California

  • No state income tax policy

  • Lower cost of living

  • Robust employment opportunities significantly bolstered by the tech and energy sectors. 

  • Homes cost, on average, about $282K less compared to California, amounting to a 70% price-tag difference.

  • Larger living spaces, with single family homes in Texas being 17% bigger than Californian residences

  • Utilities are roughly 20% less than in California 

California Tops the List of Worst Places to Look for an Affordable Home

A starter home, according to the Census Department is priced in the bottom third of homes in the area.

California has the top 14 least affordable cities in the country to look for a starter home. 

For discussion, please see The Starter Home Is No More, Even in Second Tier Markets

Subscribe to MishTalk Email Alerts.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 06/23/2023 – 15:45

Wagner Chief Declares Full-On ‘Coup’ Against Russian Defense Ministry

Wagner Chief Declares Full-On ‘Coup’ Against Russian Defense Ministry

There are breaking reports that Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin has finally completely broken off relations with the Russian military, and essentially “declared war” on the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD).

According to a prominent translator who has examined freshly released audio of Prigozhin’s fiery message on Telegram, the Wagner leader begins with: “PMC Wagner Commanders’ Council made a decision: the evil brought by the military leadership of the country must be stopped. They neglect the lives of soldiers. They forgot the word “justice”, and we will bring it back.”

It comes amid unverified reports that the regular military launched an attack on a Wagner encampment after months of soaring tensions, which the Russian MoD has just denied.

All of this has quickly given way to reports from the region that Prigozhin is ready to lead a full-on “coup” against top leadership, military brass in particular.

The translation of the Wagner founder’s words continue as follows

Those, who destroyed today our guys, who destroyed tens, tens of thousands of lives of Russian soldiers will be punished. I’m asking: no one resist. Everyone who will try to resist, we will consider them a danger and destroy them immediately, including any checkpoints on our way. And any aviation that we see above our heads.

I’m asking everyone to remain calm, do not succumb to provocations, and remain in their houses. Ideally, those along our way, do not go outside. After we finished what we started, we will return to the frontline to protect our motherland.

And more from Prigozhin, suggesting he could indeed have his sights set on an actual political coup:

Presidential authority, Government, Ministry of Internal Affairs, Rosgvardia, and other departments will continue operating as before. We will deal with those who destroy Russian soldiers. And we will return to the frontline. Justice in the Army will be restored. And after this, justice for the whole of Russia.”

One question remains after this: how long will he last? 

Below is FT’s Moscow bureau chief on the shocking declaration…

At this point, the Wagner boss should certainly avoid staying in tall buildings and near windows.

Currently, Russian state-run RT has the following military statement pinned at the top of its homepageWagner chief spreads misinformation — MOD

“All messages and video distributed on social networks on behalf of [Yevgeny] Prigozhin about the alleged strike by the [Russian military] on the camps of PMC Wagner in the rear areas do not correspond to reality and are an informational provocation,” the defense ministry said in the statement.

“Armed Forces of the Russian Federation continue to carry out combat missions on the line of contact with the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the area of the special military operation,” the MoD added.

developing…

Tyler Durden
Fri, 06/23/2023 – 15:11

One Best Friend Testifies Against The Other At Insider Trading Trial, Resulting In ‘Guilty’ Verdict

One Best Friend Testifies Against The Other At Insider Trading Trial, Resulting In ‘Guilty’ Verdict

One of two friends involved in an insider trading scheme had his fate sealed by the other, when one friend turned and testified against the other. 

38 year old Brijesh Goel was convicted of securities fraud, conspiracy and obstruction for his part in a scheme that netted $280,000 from insider trades. His former literal partner in crime, 34 year old Akshay Niranjan, had recorded him and wore a wire, before testifying against him, to save his own hide.

Niranjan’s testimony helped a jury return a guilty verdict on Wednesday this week. Bloomberg, who reported on the verdict, called it a “sad little Wall Street melodrama”. 

The scheme saw Goel passing tips from his job at Goldman Sachs, originating from the firm’s confidential deal memos, to Niranjan.

Feds eventually got wise to the scheme and visited both men before Niranjan flipped on his former friend. The two met to discuss their plan of action in a stairwell of a building where they both lived, but Niranjan was recording the entire encounter. 

Goel’s lawyer called his former fried a “judas” and a “Benedict Arnold”, but the jury wasn’t swayed and returned a guilty verdict.  

Niranjan eventually testified that the two were “very close” and said at first, he thought Goel was just a great stock picker. It was after the fact that he realized he was being tipped with inside information. 

“He got a lot of the trades too correct,” Niranjan said on the stand during the trial. 

Goel eventually took the stand in his own defense, trying to claim to the jury that he had “panicked” in deleting texts between the two men and trying to cover up the conversations, which took place in English, Hindi and “personal code”, the report says. 

“I thought he had done something stupid. And I thought because of his stupidity, he’s going to be in trouble, and I’m going to be in trouble too,” Goel told the jury. “There was a lapse of judgement”.

And maybe not just in trading on insider information, but also in how Goel chooses his friends. He’s now facing a maximum of 20 years in prison. 

Tyler Durden
Fri, 06/23/2023 – 14:45

Musk, Zuckerberg ‘Dead Serious’ About Cage Fight In UFC Octagon: Dana White

Musk, Zuckerberg ‘Dead Serious’ About Cage Fight In UFC Octagon: Dana White

Authored by Katabella Roberts via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Meta owner Mark Zuckerberg and billionaire businessman Elon Musk are “absolutely dead serious” about a cage match in a UFC Octagon, according to UFC President Dana White.

SpaceX, Twitter, and electric car maker Tesla CEO Elon Musk (R) and Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg. (Mandel Ngan and Alain Jocard/AFP via Getty Images)

White told TMZ Sports in a June 22 interview that he has been communicating with the two social media execs in recent days and both have indicated that they plan to fight in Vegas.

Talked with Mark and Elon last night, both guys are absolutely dead serious about this,” White said. “They both said, ‘Yeah, we’ll do it.’ They both want to do it,” he added.

White said he expects the fight “would be the biggest fight ever in the history of the world, bigger than anything that’s ever been done,” and would bring in hundreds of millions of dollars that would likely go to charity.

It would break all pay-per-view records. These guys would raise hundreds of millions of dollars for charity. You don’t have to be a fighting fan to be interested in this fight. Everybody would want to see it,” the UFC president continued.

White noted that the biggest fight of all time was Floyd Mayweather and Conor McGregor. That fight took place in 2017 and Mayweather defeated his rival.

“I just think it triples that. I think it triples what that did. There’s no limit on what that thing can make … Everybody would watch it, everybody would want to see it,” White said of a potential spar between Zuckerberg and Musk.

Elon Musk’s photo through a Twitter logo on Oct. 28, 2022. (Dado Ruvic/Illustration/Reuters)

‘Send Me Location’

In a surprise move, Zuckerberg later shared a screenshot of Musk’s tweet in an Instagram story alongside the message, “Send Me Location,” in an apparent reference to former UFC lightweight champion Khabib Nurmagomedov, who coined the phrase.

“If this is for real, I will do it,” the Tesla chief posted in response, suggesting the Vegas Octagon as the venue for the fight

Let’s go full MMA,” he added in a separate tweet.

Sports betting platforms are already betting their odds on the two potential opponents, with Zuckerberg up for a 56 percent chance of winning the fight, according to Oddspedia.

However, Owain Flanders, news editor at VegasSlotsOnline.com, put the odds at 3-to-2 in favor of Musk.

“Musk’s training for potential space travel and his notorious work ethic make him a formidable opponent,” Flanders said.

Meanwhile, high-profile figures including Texas Governor Greg Abbott have urged the two businessmen to engage in what he says will be “the biggest fight in UFC history.”

This is not the first time the two billionaires have made public digs at one another. In 2017, the pair became locked in a standoff over the future of artificial intelligence, something that Musk has previously said has the potential to “destroy humanity” but which Zuckerberg is “optimistic” about.

In recent months, Musk has stepped up criticism of Zuckerberg and his companies, posting earlier this year that Instagram “makes people depressed,” and in May stating that Whatsapp “cannot be trusted” after Twitter engineer Foad Dabiri claimed that his WhatsApp application was constantly switching on the microphone, even while he was sleeping.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 06/23/2023 – 13:05

Bitcoin Soars Above $31K To 12-Month High After Wave Of ‘Positive’ News

Bitcoin Soars Above $31K To 12-Month High After Wave Of ‘Positive’ News

In the 9 days since BlackRock announced its intention to launch a Bitcoin ETF, the largest cryptocurrency has risen by over $6,000.

That news prompted a sizable surge in GBTC (on hopes that Grayscale would finally gets its ETF), reducing the discount to ‘just’ 35% – its smallest in 9 months…

Source: Bloomberg

The huge rally (up 8 of those 9 days) was supported by an acceleration after a Citadel-backed crypto-exchange started operations.

And over the last 24 hours, two interesting headlines have also been ‘positive’ for bitcoin:

The IMF released a report, flip-flopping on cryptos: “While a few countries have completely banned crypto assets given their risks, this approach may not be effective in the long run,” the economists said in the report’s conclusion.

As Decrypt reports, this is a swift change from the IMF, which just months earlier said in another report that countries should consider banning cryptocurrencies

IMF economists even said that cryptocurrency offered a number of benefits to its adopters (though we suspect they are stealthily paying the foundations for a narrative change to their own CBDCs here).

Admittedly, the timing of The IMF’s flop-flop and BlackRock’s ETF announcement (two of the most globalist institutions) makes one wonder – coming just a week after Hong Kong move to solidify its role as major global crypto hub.

Finally, The US Supreme Court decided in favor of cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase in a partisan opinion that will halt court proceedings against the company in two California cases.

Plaintiffs in the class-action lawsuits alleged Coinbase failed to provide proper relief after users lost money and that Coinbase allegedly engaged in deceptive advertising.

This ruling marks the U.S. high court’s first cryptocurrency-related ruling. Justice Brett Kavanaugh wrote the opinion, which was supported by four of the court’s other conservative justices in a 5–4 vote.

And that leads to a $6,000 (24%) surge in nine days…

Source: Bloomberg

That sent Bitcoin to its highest since June 2022

Source: Bloomberg

Notably, while cryptos overall are getting a boost, Bitcoin is significantly outperforming Ethereum (which is at its weakest against BTC since July)…

Source: Bloomberg

CoinTelegraph reports that the latest market update from crypto analytics firm Jarvis Labs underscored the unclear nature of low-timeframe price action.

“I’m a bit uncertain right here, founder Ben Lilly concluded after investigating various data sets.

“I’m starting to write off $24k before options expiry, and instead lean towards a push higher into $32k range.”

Lilly referenced the upcoming options expiry on June 23, worth over $700 million.

“All of this tells me, one cannot be quick to fade this rally,” he concluded.

“My gut was saying yea, fade it bc the halving is too far off. But a few data points are saying the opposite. Perhaps a fade will present itself in July. For now, let’s track the data to see if the trend continues.”

Thanks to strong accumulation, it would be a mistake to bet on the rally fizzling too soon.

Finally, Credible Crypto has some thoughts on where Bitcoin goes next…

But, as our friends at Crypto-Anonymous might say – one day at a time, for now!

Tyler Durden
Fri, 06/23/2023 – 12:45

FDIC Mistakenly Releases List Of Top Firms Bailed Out By Biden Admin’s Backstop Of SVB Deposits

FDIC Mistakenly Releases List Of Top Firms Bailed Out By Biden Admin’s Backstop Of SVB Deposits

A document released by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp (or FDIC) which the agency said it mistakenly released unredacted in response to a Bloomberg News Freedom of Information Act request, has provided the most detailed glimpses yet into biggest Silicon Valley Bank customers who were bailed out when the Biden administration decided to backstop all the bank’s deposits.

As a reminder, when regulators stepped in to backstop all of Silicon Valley Bank’s deposits back in March, they saved thousands of small tech startups to prevent what many (especially those whose money was tiled up with SVB) said would have been a catastrophic blow to a tech sector that relied heavily on the lender.

But the stunning decision to guarantee all accounts above the $250,000 federal deposit insurance limit helped bigger companies that were in no real danger. Among them was Sequoia Capital, the world’s most prominent venture-capital firm, which ended up recovering the $1 billion it had with the lender courtesy of taxpayers. Another was Kanzhun Ltd., a Beijing-based tech company that runs mobile recruiting app Boss Zhipin, which received a backstop for more than $900 million.

While the incompetent buffoons at the FDIC – which has been selling off pieces of the bank since its failure and which absurdly ended up giving JPMorgan a $50 billion loan in Jamie Dimon’s taxpayer-funded rescue of First Republic Bank…

asked that Bloomberg destroy and not share the depositor list, saying the agency intended to “partially” withhold some details from the document “because it included confidential commercial or financial information,” according to a letter from an attorney for the regulator. The agency subsequently declined to comment on the substance of the information in the document.

Bloomberg, however, refused to comply. The list – whose contents were largely known already except for a handful of names – mistakenly sent by the FDIC is below:

Back in March, when regional banks were falling like dominoes amid a cascading bank run targeting smaller US banks, regulators decided to declare a “systemic risk exception” and make all depositors at Silicon Valley Bank whole after a white-knuckled weekend in which tech founders digested SVB’s collapse on Friday, March 10 and were begging to be rescued.

Joe Biden described the solution as one that “protects American workers and small businesses, and keeps our financial system safe.”

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen cast the government’s response – including backstopping all depositors –  as necessary.

“American households depend on banks to finance their homes, invest in an education, and otherwise improve their standards of living. Businesses borrow from these institutions to start new companies and expand existing ones,” she said at an industry conference the following week before discussing the intervention.

In the end, US taxpayers ended up bailing out such VC titans as Sequoia; it’s why the decisions that government agencies, including the FDIC, made in a frantic few days after SVB failed were immediately controversial.

Critics said that making all depositors whole at the lender and Signature Bank, which failed March 12, created a moral hazard. A fierce debate is also raging over whether the insurance limit needs to be raised for all businesses.

Former Vice President Mike Pence argued that backstopping all depositors amounted to a bailout – which of course it was – even though the Biden administration has forcefully pushed back against such a description. Pence blasted the government’s decision to insure all deposits, in part, because the move would cover Chinese companies that did business with the bank.

In May, the FDIC proposed tagging the largest banks with billions of dollars in extra fees to replenish the US government’s bedrock deposit insurance fund after it was tapped to backstop deposits above the $250,000 threshold. At the time, the regulator estimated the decision to cover all depositors at SVB and Signature cost the fund (i.e. US taxpayers) $15.8 billion.

FDIC Chairman Martin Gruenberg has previously said that at SVB the guarantee to uninsured depositors covered small and midsize business, as well as those with very large balances, and that the bank’s top 10 depositor accounts held $13.3 billion total. At least he wasn’t lying.

As detailed by the FDIC document, we now know for a fact that in addition to serving a legion of startups and fledgling businesses, SVB was a go-to bank for tech industry giants, including some that have kept their relationships with the bank confidential.

  • The $1 billion that Sequoia, the firm famous for backing iconic companies including Apple, Google and WhatsApp, had at SVB made up a fraction of its $85 billion assets under management. In addition to maintaining its own accounts at the lender, the firm also recommended every startup it backed do the same, Michael Moritz, a partner at the firm, wrote in the Financial Times. A representative for Sequoia declined to comment on the depositor list.
  • Kanzhun, which had $902.9 million in deposits with SVB according to the document, didn’t respond to multiple emailed requests for comment. The company, which was heavily backed by Chinese giant Tencent before it went public on the Nasdaq in 2021, was among the largest Chinese companies to IPO in the US that year.
  • Altos Labs Inc., a life sciences startup that works on cell regeneration, had $680.3 million in deposits with the bank. The privately held company has raised $3.27 billion from billionaires including Jeff Bezos and Yuri Milner, as well as Mubadala Investment Company and other investors. An Altos representative declined to comment.
  • Payments startup Marqeta Inc. had $634.5 million at the bank, according to the document. In a statement, the firm acknowledged that it had “significant deposits” at SVB, but was already in the process of moving money to other banks. “While Marqeta supported the decision to guarantee all deposits at the bank, our ability to execute as a business and meet our financial obligations would not have been impacted, even if it was a longer resolution process” the firm said.
  • IntraFi Network, which provides deposit services to financial institutions, had $410.9 million worth of deposits at the bank, according to the document. However, in a statement, the firm said that it didn’t actually have any of its own money with the lender, nor was it a client. The amount, rather, represents the funds of almost 2,000 different depositors whose balances were fully insured when SVB collapsed, according to IntraFi.
  • Crypto stablecoin company Circle Internet Financial Ltd. previously disclosed its SVB deposits, which at the time represented 8.2% of the reserves backing its USD Coin. A spokesman said the company had no additional comment. The USD Coin, which is intended to maintain a 1-to-1 peg to the dollar, briefly drifted from that $1 level on the news of Circle’s exposure. The document listed it as SVB’s biggest depositor with a balance of $3.3 billion.
  • Streaming set-top box maker Roku Inc. also previously disclosed having roughly 26% of its cash and cash equivalents parked at the bank. The document listed its balance at $420 million. A Roku spokesman declined further comment.
  • Fintech company Bill.com previously disclosed it had roughly $670 million at the bank. The firm said the amount included about $300 million of its money and $370 million that belonged to customers. A company spokesman declined further comment. The FDIC document listed Bill.com’s total balance at $761.1 million.

Finally, Silicon Valley Bank and parent SVB Financial Group were both listed as having a combined $4.6 billion in deposits. SVB Financial has argued in its bankruptcy case that at least $2 billion in deposits the parent had with the bank should be returned. Federal regulators have said SVB Financial must apply to the bank’s receiver for that money.

* * *

While the regional banking crisis is currently on the backburner, it is nowhere near over: as long as the Fed continues its QT, the total amount of deposits in the financial system continues to shrink (it’s why the Fed’s BTFP program is so instrumental to avoiding an acceleration in the bank run).

In fact, once the small bank reserve constraint is hit again, expect round 2 of the 2023 banking crisis to hit with a vengeance.

It’s why Peter Crane, president of money-fund tracking firm Crane Data LLC, said Friday at the Crane’s Money Fund Symposium in Atlanta that cash will “relentlessly” keep pouring out of banks and into money funds.

“Until they guarantee all deposits, which they will have to do at some point, institutional investors are looking at a big block of uninsured deposits” Crane said. “With cash, it’s the possibility of losing money you’re trying to avoid.”

On the retail side, Crane said that investors are shifting out of deposits because of the 4.5%-5% yield available in money funds relative to the sub-1% yield on bank deposits: “That’s the greed of a 4% spread,” he said. “You can drive a truck through that spread.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 06/23/2023 – 12:38

‘Dangerous Moment’: Zelensky Issues Nuclear Plant False Flag Warning As Counteroffensive Fails

‘Dangerous Moment’: Zelensky Issues Nuclear Plant False Flag Warning As Counteroffensive Fails

Not for the first time thus far in the conflict, accusations of false flag events involving radioactive material are flying, after Ukraine’s President Zelensky accused Russia of plotting a “terrorist attack” on the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant which is to result in an intentional radiation leak, according to a Thursday video statement.

“Intelligence has received information that Russia is considering the scenario of a terrorist act at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant – a terrorist act with radiation leakage,” he claimed. “Radiation has no state borders. Whomever it will hit is deterred only by the direction of the wind,” Zelensky added.

The Ukrainian leader further claimed to have evidence to back his assertions about the plot, but the Kremlin has blasted all of this as “another lie”. Russia has also stressed that an international team of UN-backed nuclear experts have been on-site observing safety protocol and proper operations.

Getty Images

Zelensky is in essence alleging Moscow is plotting a false flag attack on the very facility its own forces have long been occupying and controlling. Russian forces have overseen the local staff which keeps the nuclear plant, Europe’s largest, in operation. It had for the past year-and-a-half been subject to sporadic shelling, with both sides frequently blaming the other for putting all of Europe at risk.

Zelensky said he received intelligence about the impending major security incident, and has passed it along to other countries including the United States, the Europeans, and even China, Brazil and India.

“This time it should not be like Kakhovka,” Zelensky also said in the video, a reference to the hydroelectric dam which blew up and resulted in devastating, deadly flooding in the southern region earlier this month. Kiev has maintained Russian forces did it, while skeptics have noted it would be tantamount to Moscow shooting itself in the foot, given the dam’s destruction created a huge risk to Crimea’s water supply, as even the NY Times has underscored.

While Zelensky offered no evidence or any concrete details to back his new and alarming warnings surrounding the Zaporizhzhia power plant, he concluded his video message by saying, “the world has been warned, so the world can and must act.”

It is clear he’s also put various government departments on high alert, including local and regional monitors, per The Independent:  

“We know the Russians can do this, we knew they could blow up the Kakhovka dam and we know they could target the [Zaporizhzhia] power plant,” Taras Tyshchenko, head of the center for disease control and prevention in Zaporizhzhia city, told The Independent.

At the Ministry of Health facility, Tyshchenko’s teams are already testing the air and water for radiation and disease after the dam explosion.

Meanwhile, a number of independent war observers have pointed out that Ukraine will turn to more extreme tactics to the degree its counteroffensive gets beaten back, making this a truly dangerous moment.

Are we witnessing Zelensky preparing the world for what may in actuality be a Ukrainian false-flag in the works?

The timing of this report, based on statements of Russia’s FSB, is certainly interesting…

So far a number of major events have raised the prospect of the likelihood that false flag events have already become a key feature of the conflict, most especially the Nord Stream pipeline blasts last September.

While Kiev and Western press rushed to blame Russia for supposedly bombing its own vital natural gas pipeline in the months that followed, a new media consensus has lately emerged pointing to a Ukrainian sabotage operation. All the while, Seymour Hersh has also maintained it was an American intelligence operation. 

Tyler Durden
Fri, 06/23/2023 – 12:30

Is 50 The New 25?

Is 50 The New 25?

By Philip Marey, Senior US Strategist at Rabobank

For the first time this hiking cycle, the Bank of England delivered an upward surprise: it voted by a 7-2 majority to raise its policy rate by 50bp to 5.00%. Economists didn’t expect this. It is likely that Wednesday’s shock inflation figure frightened the majority of the MPC, prompting it to take more drastic action right away. The MPC doesn’t dare to rely on models or forward-looking indicators too much, and thinks it safer to set policy based on what they are actually seeing in the rear view mirror. It seeks to regain the initiative on inflation, with a reaction function based on wage growth and services inflation. It is willing to break the economy to restore policy credibility. Yesterday’s 50bp hike will likely do little to reduce short-term inflation, but will definitely add to the mortgage squeeze in front of us. The risk of an accident has increased. We still expect two 25bp rate increases at the two upcoming meetings, with obvious upside risk. Our forecast for the terminal rate is following today’s surprise higher and has been lifted to 5.50% from 5.25%. For more details, we refer to the BoE Post Meeting Commentary by Stefan Koopman.

Three hours before the Bank of England, Norges Bank also surprised the markets with a 50 bps hike, instead of 25 bps expected. This brought the styringsrenten at 3.75%. The Norwegian central bank’s current assessment of the outlook and balance of risks implies that the policy rate will most likely be raised further in August. Inflation is markedly above the target and wage growth is set to be higher than in 2022. Governor Ida Wolden Bache stated that “if we do not raise the policy rate, prices and wages could continue to rise rapidly and inflation become entrenched. It may then become more costly to bring inflation down again.”

Yesterday, as expected, Banxico left its policy rate unchanged at 11.25% and said it “considers that it will be necessary to maintain the reference rate at its current level for an extended period”, repeating its forward guidance from last month. The decision was unanimous. The Governing Board noted that since the last meeting, annual headline and core inflation continued decreasing, but remained high, at 5.18% and 6.91%, respectively. Our Banxico-watcher Christian Lawrence expects rates to stay on hold into 2024, although the risk is skewed towards further tightening.

In the US, Fed Chair Powell returned to Capitol Hill for the second day of his monetary policy report to Congress. Powell explained that the FOMC did not hike in June to slow down the hiking cycle: “We moved very quickly at the beginning, and we’ve gradually slowed down. This is just a continuation of that… to give ourselves more time – to stretch out the time for making those decisions.” He confirmed that the two additional hikes in the dot plot were “a pretty good guess of what will happen if the economy performs as expected.” Besides Powell, several other FOMC participants also made the news yesterday. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman said that she believes that additional policy rate increases will be necessary. She said that we have seen core inflation essentially plateau since the fall of 2022. Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin, who does not vote this year, said that he is still looking to be convinced that slowing demand returning inflation relatively quickly to target is happening, but if the coming data doesn’t support that, he’s more than comfortable doing more.

Meanwhile, US economic data are confirming a slowdown in growth. The US initial jobless claims remained elevated at 264K in the week ending on June 17, indicating that labor demand has softened somewhat. However, declining continuing claims suggest that the discrepancy between demand and supply has actually fallen in recent weeks. The Chicago Fed’s national economic activity index turned negative again (-0.15) in May, from 0.14 in April (upward revision from 0.07). Negative readings indicate below-trend growth, which the Fed thinks is necessary – with some softening of the labor market – to squeeze out inflation.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 06/23/2023 – 12:00

Germany Signs Long-Term U.S. LNG Deal To Replace Russian Gas

Germany Signs Long-Term U.S. LNG Deal To Replace Russian Gas

By Tsvetana Paraskova of OilPrice.com

Germany’s state-controlled firm Securing Energy for Europe (Sefe) has signed a 20-year deal with Venture Global LNG to import 2.25 million tons of LNG per year from Venture Global’s third project, CP2 LNG, as Europe’s biggest economy is looking to secure gas supply after Russia stopped deliveries.   

Sefe, wholly owned by the German government, was created last year after Germany saved a former Gazprom unit it had expropriated in April with a multi-billion-euro loan. Gazprom Germania was renamed Securing Energy for Europe GmbH (Sefe), to secure energy supply to Germany and Europe, the government said last summer.  

“By joining forces with Venture Global LNG, SEFE makes another important step on our mission to secure energy for German and European customers and meet the energy demand of the region,” Sefe’s CEO Egbert Laege, said, commenting on the deal.

“Germany has acted decisively to diversify its energy portfolio and LNG will be a vital part of that mix as it seeks to strengthen its energy security while at the same time advancing environmental progress,” said Mike Sabel, CEO of Venture Global LNG.

The new long-term deal signals that Germany will continue to rely on natural gas and, unlike a year and a half ago, is not reluctant to contract LNG supply for decades to come.

At the end of last year, Germany signed a deal with Qatar, under which Qatar will provide LNG to Germany for at least 15 years beginning in 2026 under deals that state firm QatarEnergy and U.S. company ConocoPhillips signed for supply from Qatar’s North Field East (NFE) and North Field South (NFS) expansion projects. 

Faced with the prospect of no Russian gas, Germany last year started installing floating storage and regasification units (FSRUs). 

In early January, Germany welcomed the first tanker carrying LNG at the newly opened LNG import terminal at Wilhelmshaven, with the cargo arriving from the Calcasieu Pass export facility in the United States.

Europe’s biggest economy plans to have as much as 70.7 million tons per year of LNG import capacity by 2030, which will make it the fourth-largest LNG import capacity holder in the world.  

Tyler Durden
Fri, 06/23/2023 – 10:00

US PMIs Tumble In June As Manufacturing Slump Hits Services Sector

US PMIs Tumble In June As Manufacturing Slump Hits Services Sector

After European PMIs plunged this morning, US PMIs (preliminary for June) were expected to decline (both Services and Manufacturing).

  • US Manufacturing PMI tumbled to 46.3 from 48.4 – that is the lowest since Dec 2022 (which equals lowest on record)

  • US Services PMI dropped to 54.1 from 54.9

Source: Bloomberg

Commenting on the US flash PMI data, Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence said:

“Growth remains dependent on service sector spending, however, with manufacturing slipping back into decline after three months of growth. While improving supply conditions had helped boost manufacturing production in prior months, an increasingly severe downturn in new orders mean factories are running out of work.

“The situation is brighter in the service sector, where demand is proving resilient and the recent pause in rate hikes appears to have helped boost business optimism for the year ahead.

“The tightness of the labor market remains a concern, and upward wage pressure remains a key driver of higher costs in the service sector.

However, it is encouraging to see the overall rate of selling price inflation for goods and services drop to the lowest since late 2020 in a sign that the Fed is winning its fight against inflation.”

The question remains as to how resilient service sector growth can be in the face of the manufacturing decline and the lagged effect of prior rate hikes. Any further rate hikes will of course have a further dampening effect on this sector which is especially susceptible to changes in borrowing costs.

Finally, Williamson notes that “The overall rate of expansion of business activity in the US remained robust in June, consistent with GDP rising at a rate of 1.7% to put second quarter growth in the region of 2%.”

As we noted earlier, US macro data has actually been surprising to the upside (modestly) in recent weeks (while Europe’s is plunging)…

Source: Bloomberg

Europe, for now, remains the weakest economic bloc (based on PMIs)…

Source: Bloomberg

…but the upward trend of global PMIs since the start of the year has clearly broken.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 06/23/2023 – 09:53