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Hope And Reality

Hope And Reality

By Teeuwe Mevissen, Senior Macro Strategist at Rabobank

Since the start of the Iran war the market has had a tendency to view the likelihood of a peace agreement with a ‘glass half full’ attitude.

Once again, markets have found some comfort in encouraging remarks from both the US and Iran, even though both sides are making it clear that there are still major sticking points on critical issues.

US Secretary of State Rubio has suggested that there are “some goods signs” towards finding a resolution. This is despite Iran’s Supreme leader ordering that the country’s enriched uranium must not be sent abroad, which is a key objective of both the US and Israel. Rubio has also stated that any deal that involved Iran imposing tolls on shipping passing through the Strait of Hormuz would be unacceptable. This statement comes on the heels of this week’s news that Iran is looking to set up a new “Persian Gulf Strait Authority” to exert control over a maritime zone in the area and that the country’s authorities are also discussing with Oman how to set up a permanent toll system. Amid the confusion over the degree of progress towards peace, Brent crude prices have ticked higher this morning, though they remain in the lower part of this week’s range.

Reflecting movements in oil prices, US treasury yields are also trading in the lower part of this week’s range, though they remain at elevated levels. While asset prices continue to take their cue from speculation regarding the length of time that the Strait of Hormuz may be closed, economic data are increasingly reflecting the impact that the supply shock is already having.

Yesterday’s release of French preliminary May PMI data showed a plunge in the composite number to 43.5 from 47.6 the previous month, with weakness evident in both the manufacturing and the services sectors. The composite number, which is a 66-month low, would usually be associated with recession.

According to S&P Global, firms cited higher fuel and energy costs as reasons for lower output, with manufacturing firms citing material shortages.

The German PMI data was less of a shock but with a composite number reading 48.6, the economy is continuing to show signs of contraction. While this morning’s German IFO release was a little better than expected, it remains close to a 5-year low.

Yesterday’s release of the spring forecasts from the European Commission reflected the growing pessimism regarding the economic toll of the Iran war. GDP growth in the EU is now projected to slow to 1.1% in 2026, a downward revision of 0.3 ppts from the autumn forecasting round.

Growth for the Eurozone this year is now projected to be just 0.9%, while price pressures have been revised higher. The EC’s forecast for inflation in the EU has been revised a full percentage point higher to 3.1% in 2026. The forecast for the Eurozone stands at 3% this year up from an autumn forecast of 1.9%.

The data highlight the conundrum for the ECB. Price pressures are of clear concern, but weak activity data question whether the ECB needs to hike rates as much as markets have been expecting to rein back demand in the face of the supply shock. This morning the market is priced for a little more than two 25 bps ECB rate hikes on a 6-month view. Rabobank has pencilled in just one for now.

How weakening economic activity will impact central bank decisions has been a theme in many parts of the G10 this week. The releases of softer than expected UK and Australian labor data earlier in the week had a noticeable impact on rate hike expectations in their respective markets. Weak UK retail sales data this morning have further shone the spotlight on growth risks.

Cost of living pressures have been highlighted by UK voters as a primary concern and PM Starmer’s leadership continues to hang by a shoestring. In an effort to grapple back some control, the (current) Labour party leadership have this week announced steps to ease pressure on household budgets. This includes extending a freeze on fuel duty, cutting VAT on some hospitality services over the summer, and granting a 12-month road tax holiday for hauliers.

The package of measures will be funded by bringing forward changes to how oil and gas companies are taxed on overseas earnings. UK Chancellor Reeves’ adherence to her fiscal rules have won her some credibility in the gilts markets. Concerns that a leadership challenge would result in a swing to the left of the party and bring more spending pledges have unsettled the gilts market this month, though comments earlier in the weeks from Manchester Mayor Burnham that he would maintain the fiscal rules if he led the country have provided some reassurance.

Burnham may be the bookies’ favorite for the next leader of the UK’s Labour party, but he must win a seat in parliament before announcing a challenge. The most likely date for the Makerfield by-election is June 28. Reform will be fighting hard to win that seat ahead of Burham.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 05/22/2026 – 09:45

Trump Sending 5,000 Additional Troops To Poland, After Same Number Reduced From Germany

Trump Sending 5,000 Additional Troops To Poland, After Same Number Reduced From Germany

President Trump announced in a post on Truth Social late Thursday that he will send 5,000 additional troops to Poland, which has raised a lot of questions and introduced some level of confusion, given this is precisely the same number of troops the Pentagon has announced it plans to pull out of Germany.

“Based on the successful Election of the now President of Poland, Karol Nawrocki, who I was proud to Endorse, and our relationship with him, I am pleased to announce that the United States will be sending an additional 5,000 Troops to Poland,” Trump wrote.

Weeks ago, the White House began threatening a significant and historic force reduction from Germany, following Berlin officials’ repeat criticisms of the US-Israeli war against Iran. This was initially presented in media reports as part of a broader drawdown from Europe, but now it appears US forces are just being shifted around, and with 5,000 to be placed closer to Russia.

All of this was first reported and confirmed by Punchbowl News’ Briana Reilly, citing the words of House Armed Services Committee Chairman Rep. Mike Rogers (R-AL)…

Rogers indicated that the 5,000 new troops for Poland will be in addition to the delayed deployment of 4,000 US Army soldiers to Poland.

As it stands, reports from a week ago suggest that the 4,000 has been paused or even canceled, with Pentagon commanders cited in media reports saying they were “blindsided” by the decision.

Some of this surprise and frustration was echoed in public, with Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges, the former commander of the U.S. Army in Europe, stating that the Army’s role in Europe “is all about deterring the Russians, protecting America’s strategic interests and assuring allies.”

But it remains that “now a very important asset that was coming to be part of that deterrence is gone.” He added: “The Poles certainly have never criticized President Trump, and they do all the things that good allies are supposed to do. And yet, this happens.”

Trump’s announcement that he’s sending a separate contingency of 5,000 to Poland could be an effort to smooth over Pentagon fears, while keeping European allies happy, and seeking to demonstrate the US is not ‘backing down’ from Russia. 

Germany itself can’t complain too loudly either, given it too has long been worried about Russia, and now more US forces are en route to NATO’s ‘eastern flank’. This move might have even been long in planning, with Washington trying to spin everything in terms of punishment and reward actions.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 05/22/2026 – 09:15

Great Again: Blue-Haired Liberals Seen Enjoying Beautifully Restored DC Park Fountain

Great Again: Blue-Haired Liberals Seen Enjoying Beautifully Restored DC Park Fountain

Authored by Steve Watson via modernity.news

Decline is a choice

Just weeks ago, Meridian Hill Park – also known as Malcolm X Park – stood as a graffiti-scarred reminder of neglect, overrun by vagrants, trash, and decay. Today, its iconic 13-basin cascading fountain flows powerfully once more, drawing families, dog walkers, and even those with blue hair who once might have sneered at such efforts.

The transformation is undeniable: clean pathways, flowing water, and people reclaiming public space in the heart of Washington, D.C.

It’s the direct result of President Trump’s determination to restore the nation’s capital ahead of America’s 250th anniversary. As one viral video captured, locals are visibly enjoying the revived park where needles and encampments once dominated.

President Trump has been clear about his personal investment in these projects. In a statement shared widely, he detailed the progress:

“So far, over 20 have been revitalized, and fixed, looking better than the day they were built, many years ago. We have some left, some were in very bad and difficult condition, but we will get them all done in a short time. D.C. is being reawakened as to its Beauty, Elegance, and Charm.”

He continued on the grand prize:

The “Granddaddy” of them all will be The Reflecting Pool – 2,500 feet long, and almost 200 feet wide, the biggest such structure ever built, but also, the most troublesome for many Administrations in that, from the time it was built in 1922, it essentially never really worked! It leaked from all angles, drew dirt, grime, and decay, was often filled with garbage, and wasn’t at all representative of the two Great Monuments it connects – The Lincoln Memorial, and the Washington Monument.”

“I, together with Doug Burgum and the Department of Interior, am fixing it the right and proper way – It will last for many decades into the future,” Trump added.

Trump further stated, “The Fountains are now working, and look magnificent as the Park is being entirely rebuilt, using far better and more beautiful materials than originally used. As the Entrance to the White House, it’s got to be spectacular – There is no other way! Again, check out what’s going on at Lafayette Park.”

The fountain revival aligns with Trump’s revived executive order promoting classical architecture for federal buildings – an order Biden scrapped in 2021 but Trump reinstated to prioritize beauty, tradition, and civic pride over modernist ugliness.

Meridian Hill Park’s cascading fountain, one of North America’s longest, had been dry for years. Now it cascades with renewed vigor, part of a $54 million initiative restoring seven major D.C. fountains.

The Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool – long plagued by leaks and grime – is undergoing a major overhaul with upgraded materials and a striking “American flag blue” finish for enhanced reflection and durability.

As Trump noted, Lafayette Park, right at the White House entrance, is also being fully rebuilt with superior materials. Additional fountains and public spaces across D.C. are in the pipeline, all timed for the 250th celebrations.

The most striking images show everyday Americans – including those who might not vote Trump – relaxing by the flowing water. Blue Haired liberals were even spotted enjoying the surroundings.

Crime in D.C. is dropping, encampments are cleared, and families are returning. Beauty and order draw people in; neglect repels them. Trump’s approach proves that enforcing basic standards and investing in public spaces benefits everyone, regardless of politics.

Leftist critics can fume about “wasted” money or “gentrification,” but the footage tells the truth: people love safe, clean, beautiful spaces. They always have. Decades of Democrat-led decay turned the capital into a embarrassment. Trump is reversing it.

The fountains are flowing, the parks are alive, and the capital is reawakening.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 05/22/2026 – 08:55

Regulators Circle StanChart After CEO’s AI Layoff Comments Spark Uproar

Regulators Circle StanChart After CEO’s AI Layoff Comments Spark Uproar

It has been a tumultuous week for Standard Chartered CEO Bill Winters.

Winters appeared out of touch with the growing anxiety surrounding mounting white-collar AI-related job losses. He described the bank’s AI adoption push as “not cost-cutting,” but rather as “replacing lower-value human capital with financial and investment capital.”

Such language ignited a firestorm for the CEO and the bank, and by the end of the week, regulatory scrutiny had descended on the firm.

Reuters reports that authorities in Hong Kong and Singapore have pressed the bank for clarity on Winters’ comments and the scope of upcoming AI-related layoffs.

On Tuesday, StanChart began labor restructuring to cut 15% of its corporate roles (about 7,800 jobs) by 2030 as part of a broader efficiency push amid the adoption of AI.

Hong Kong authorities asked StanChart whether AI was being used as a pretext to reduce headcount.

By midweek, Winters scrambled into damage control following the “lower-value human capital” remarks. Early today, he apologized for his “choice of words” in a LinkedIn post.

“For that, I am sorry. I am therefore showing below a verbatim transcript of what I actually said, which I hope allows for a better understanding of the important point I was raising…”

Here’s the transcript:”

“For example, this new core banking system in Hong Kong, which is a major, major accomplishment. This is not an everyday thing. It happens once in 40 years. And when it goes wrong, it’s a disaster. It did not; it was practically perfect. That was a two and a half year programme, to get that right. The people that were gonna be affected, who were very important for helping us get to the right answer, knew that they were gonna be affected, and we began reskilling them at the earliest possibility. We’re not long on talent in the markets where we operate, because these markets are growing fast. So the people that want to reskill, that want to carry on, we’re giving every opportunity to reposition. And the people that say, yeah, you know, I’ve done my bit, I’m ready to do something else. I take a package at the end of the application migration. So this isn’t, it’s not cost cutting. It’s replacing, in some cases, lower-value human capital with the financial and investment capital we’re putting in. But almost always, with good clear notice going forward.”

Beyond StanChart, corporate America is firing engineers and other white-collar workers as AI adoption accelerates. This era will likely be remembered as the great “white-collar purge,” and the response may be continued backlash toward data centers.

Meta Platforms began firing 8,000 workers earlier this week, while leaked audio of CEO Mark Zuckerberg described how AI is monitoring highly skilled employees. According to X user Official Layoff, who leaked the audio: “AI is replacing the contractor. Then the employee trains the AI. Then the AI replaces the employee.”

Take a look at Bloomberg story count data for “ChatGPT” and “layoffs” …

Labor-market disruption for white-collar workers has arrived with the rise of AI adoption. In 2023, Goldman detailed just how many jobs AI may eliminate. That number is absolutely alarming.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 05/22/2026 – 08:35

Mortgage Rates Hit 9-Month High, Freezing Out Homebuyers In Peak Season

Mortgage Rates Hit 9-Month High, Freezing Out Homebuyers In Peak Season

The average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage climbed to its highest level since August, threatening to derail the spring selling season as higher Treasury yields and renewed inflation pressure push loan costs higher and freeze more prospective buyers out of the market.

Freddie Mac data released Thursday show the 30-year fixed mortgage rate for the week ending May 21 jumped to 6.51% from 6.36%, the highest rate since Aug. 28, 2025.

Soaring mortgage rates stem from turmoil in the Gulf region, with the U.S.-Iran war driving up oil prices, inflation, and bond yields over the last three months. Rates on 10-year Treasuries hit their highest level in one year, while 30-year yields neared 2007 highs. 

Mortgage rates fell to around 6% in early February, lifting hopes for a housing market rebound after three consecutive years of depressed activity. Yet hopes for a robust selling season were dashed because the conflict in the Middle East began in late February, and once the Hormuz chokepoint closed, energy prices surged, followed by rates.

“Each uptick in rates narrows the pool of buyers who can make the numbers work,” Realtor.com analyst Anthony Smith told News Corp.

The impact of higher rates is significant for buyers: Before the conflict, a buyer with a $2,500 monthly budget and 20% down could afford about a $400,000 home at a 6% mortgage rate, but only about $384,000 at a 6.5% rate.

Realtor.com analyst Jake Krimmel told Bloomberg, “We’ve been surprised so far that we haven’t seen deterioration like we did this time last year.” 

“May is where the rubber will meet the road because that’s when things tend to really start picking up,” Krimmel said. 

The end result of surging rates over the last few months was flat existing-home sales in April, well below Bloomberg Consensus expectations.

The continued housing market slowdown, which feels like an eternity for those in the industry, has pressured businesses tied to housing, such as furniture manufacturers, home builders, mortgage lenders, and real estate brokerages.

Home improvement retailers such as Home Depot and Lowe’s warned this week that consumers remain reluctant to splurge on big-ticket home improvement items, as elevated mortgage rates, high home prices, energy inflation, weakening sentiment, and broader macroeconomic uncertainty weigh on demand.

Lowe’s CEO Marvin Ellison warned analysts earlier this week that the housing market is the “most difficult” since the financial crisis. 

He continued:

I think overall this has been the most difficult housing market that I’ve faced in this business since the financial crisis. And as Brandon mentioned, it’s almost exclusively or disproportionately on the DIY customer.

That’s the majority of where our revenue comes from. And so I look at it from this perspective, you know, we’ve delivered four quarters of positive comps in an environment where the DIY has faced more economic pressure than I’ve ever seen before.

Housing affordability for first-time homebuyers remains at a four-decade low.

“Decisions made during the period of ultra-low interest rates coming out of the pandemic are still shaping behavior,” said Torsten Slok, the chief economist at Apollo Global Management, citing the unwillingness of homebuyers with sub-4% rates to move. “The shift to higher rates has fundamentally changed the economics.”

“If you’re looking for relief on 30-year conventional mortgage rates, you’re not going to get it anytime soon,” said Kevin Flanagan, head of investment strategy at WisdomTree.

Nick Barta, a regional manager at Security First Financial, a Colorado-based mortgage company, told Bloomberg that the surge in rates because of the US-Iran war has had a chilling effect on the industry so far. 

“All you hear about is gas prices and higher interest rates,” said Barta, who has worked in the mortgage industry for nearly four decades. “It freaks people out.”

President Trump has directed Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to begin buying $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities to pressure mortgage rates lower.

“FHFA and the administration are actively evaluating a range of tools and policy options to improve affordability and expand access to homeownership for American families,” Federal Housing Finance Agency Director William Pulte said.

Sarah Wolfe, a senior economist at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, warned that higher mortgage rates continue to leave an entire generation of homebuyers stuck in rentals.

“They want the same things as the generation before them,” Wolfe said, “and the bar to entry is getting higher and higher.”

Tyler Durden
Fri, 05/22/2026 – 06:55

US Removes UN Gaza Rapporteur Francesca Albanese From Sanctions List

US Removes UN Gaza Rapporteur Francesca Albanese From Sanctions List

Authored by Owen Evans via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The United States has removed U.N. special rapporteur Francesca Albanese from its sanctions list, according to a May 20 notice posted by the Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control.

Francesca Albanese, U.N. special rapporteur on human rights in the Palestinian territories, attends a news conference during the Human Rights Council at the United Nations in Geneva, Switzerland, on March 24, 2026. Denis Balibouse/Reuters

The notice said Albanese, listed as Francesca Paola Albanese, had been deleted from the Specially Designated Nationals list under an International Criminal Court-related sanctions program.

The sanctions barred her from entering the United States and banking there.

The move came a week after a federal judge temporarily blocked enforcement of the sanctions, finding that the Trump administration likely violated Albanese’s free-speech rights by imposing the measures.

Albanese, an Italian lawyer based in Tunisia, serves as the “U.N. special rapporteur on the situation of human rights in the Palestinian territories occupied since 1967.”

She has repeatedly accused Israel of committing genocide in Gaza, allegations Israel has rejected.

The United States had placed Albanese under sanctions in July 2025 under an executive order targeting people accused of assisting International Criminal Court actions against the United States or its allies.

“The United States has repeatedly condemned and objected to the biased and malicious activities of Albanese that have long made her unfit for service as a Special Rapporteur. Albanese has spewed unabashed antisemitism, expressed support for terrorism, and open contempt for the United States, Israel, and the West,” U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio wrote at the time.

The sanctions barred U.S. persons from doing business with her and blocked any property or interests in property under U.S. jurisdiction.

Albanese has denied any allegations of anti-Semitism.

Albanese’s husband and daughter, who is a U.S. citizen, sued the Trump administration in February this year, alleging that the U.S. sanctions are “effectively debanking her and making it nearly impossible to meet the needs of her daily life.”

In October 2024, Albanese published a U.N. report titled “Genocide as colonial erasure,” in which she argued that Israel’s campaign in Gaza should be viewed within a broader “settler-colonial” framework.

“Since its establishment, Israel has treated the occupied people as a hated encumbrance and threat to be eradicated, subjecting millions of Palestinians, for generations, to everyday indignities, mass killing, mass incarceration, forced displacement, racial segregation, and apartheid. Advancing its goal of ‘Greater Israel’ threatens to erase the Indigenous Palestinian population,” she wrote.

The “settler-colonial” framework is often associated with left-wing, postcolonial, and critical-theory scholarship.

Australian free-market think tank Institute of Public Affairs (IPA) explicitly calls settler-colonial theory an “unsettling Marxist ideology” as the academic field was founded by British-born prominent social anthropologist and historian Patrick Wolfe, who drew on Marxist theory.

In 2024, a United Nations watchdog called for an immediate probe into alleged ethical abuses by Albanese, which said that she had allegedly requested payments for work done in her official capacity, something it called illegal.

U.N. Watch filed a complaint with U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres and High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Turk, demanding that Albanese be removed from her role.

In a March 2025 response, the U.N. Coordination Committee did not remove Albanese or find a formal breach, but said the proposed honorarium arrangement was “inappropriate.”

The Committee was also satisfied by the confirmation from the Special Rapporteur that she has not and will not accept payment or honoraria of any kind for work done in her official U.N. capacity,” it said.

In 2025, Israel withdrew from the U.N. Human Rights Council (UNHRC), citing “ongoing and unrelenting institutional bias” against the Jewish state.

Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar, in a social media post announcing the withdrawal, cited U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision announced the previous day to pull the United States out of the council.

“Israel joins the United States and will not participate in the UNHRC,” Sa’ar wrote.

Trump announced in February 2025 that the United States would withdraw from the Human Rights Council and also would not resume funding of UNRWA, the U.N. agency that addresses Palestinians and is the largest employer in the Gaza Strip.

The United States previously froze payments to UNRWA in 2018, during Trump’s first term. They were restored under the Biden administration but stopped again after it was alleged that at least 12 agency employees participated in terrorist group Hamas’s Oct. 7, 2023, attack on Israel.

Hillel Neuer, executive director of U.N. Watch, told a House Foreign Affairs committee in January 2024 that 1,200 of UNRWA’s 13,000 Gaza employees belonged to Hamas and that 6,000 of them had family members in it.

Reuters, Dan M. Berger, and Aldgra Fredly contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 05/22/2026 – 06:30

Chinese EV Makers Turn Abandoned Western Factories Into Global Launchpads

Chinese EV Makers Turn Abandoned Western Factories Into Global Launchpads

Chinese EV companies are rapidly expanding overseas by snapping up unused factory space from struggling Western automakers, many of whom are downsizing traditional gasoline-car production, according to Nikkei.

Stellantis recently opened plants in France and Spain to partnerships with Dongfeng and Leapmotor. At the same time, Geely is expected to restart an idle production line at a Spanish factory owned by Ford Motor Company. The trend reflects a broader shift in the auto industry: Chinese EV makers are expanding aggressively while many legacy manufacturers are cutting capacity.

UBS analysts predict Chinese brands could control 35% of the global auto market by 2030, up from 25% this year, helped by China’s low-cost battery supply chain. Their report warned that foreign automakers face “structural market share loss” as competition intensifies.

Nikkei writes that building cars locally has become a practical way for Chinese companies to avoid tariffs and satisfy governments pushing for domestic manufacturing. BNP Paribas analyst James Kan said the strategy helps local economies “feel that they’re getting a cut,” making expansion politically easier.

Europe has become a key battleground. After facing steep EU tariffs, Leapmotor said it would source many components within Europe for production at Stellantis facilities. The company also plans to begin manufacturing in Brazil, where tariffs on imported EVs are set to increase again this summer.

But owning overseas factories brings new complications. Citigroup analyst Harald Hendrikse joked he was “a little amused” watching Chinese firms buy European plants because they are about to learn “how difficult it is to do business” there. Labor costs, regulations, and local sourcing rules could significantly raise expenses.

BYD has already faced setbacks abroad. After renovating a former Ford plant in Brazil, the company became embroiled in controversy over alleged “slavery-like” labor conditions tied to construction work. Even so, BYD is still exploring additional factories in Latin America and Europe.

Many Chinese automakers prefer acquiring dormant facilities instead of building new plants from scratch, which one industry executive described as requiring “tons of extra preparation work.” Companies are carefully comparing costs, efficiency, and demand before making investments.

Meanwhile, European manufacturers are struggling with underused factories. Volkswagen plans to reduce global production capacity by millions of vehicles this decade. CEO Oliver Blume acknowledged the company still has too much unused capacity in Europe, though he later said there are “currently no plans or discussions” with Chinese manufacturers.

For some executives, these partnerships could solve problems on both sides: Chinese EV makers gain faster access to foreign markets, while Western automakers find new uses for factories that would otherwise sit idle.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 05/22/2026 – 05:45

Elon Musk Offers To Fund Lawsuit Against UK Police In Henry Nowak Stabbing Tragedy

Elon Musk Offers To Fund Lawsuit Against UK Police In Henry Nowak Stabbing Tragedy

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

Elon Musk has stepped forward to hold UK police accountable in what appears to be one of the most disturbing policing failures to emerge from Britain in years.

The tech mogul publicly offered to bankroll a wrongful death lawsuit against officers who allegedly prioritized an attacker’s claims of “racism” over saving the life of 18-year-old Henry Nowak.

Musk’s intervention comes as harrowing bodycam footage from the scene plays out in Southampton Crown Court during the ongoing murder trial of Vickrum Singh Digwa, the 23-year-old man of Indian Sikh heritage accused of stabbing Nowak four times with a 21cm blade.

He followed up with another pointed question: “Has any action been taken against the police officers who handcuffed this boy and made him bleed to death in the street? Who are they?”

In a further post, Musk declared: “Unconscionable. I am happy to fund a wrongful death lawsuit against these disgusting excuses for law enforcement. They damn well better have been fired.”

Nowak, a first-year accountancy and finance student at the University of Southampton from Essex, was walking home from a night out with university football teammates when he was attacked. Prosecutors say Digwa stabbed him four times after Nowak tried to escape.

When police arrived, bodycam footage captured Nowak leaning against a wall, supported by Digwa’s father. The father told officers: “He keeps dropping down, so I am just trying to keep him up.”

Nowak repeatedly said “Can’t breathe” and told them he had been stabbed. Instead of rushing medical aid, officers handcuffed the bleeding teenager while arresting him for suspected assault – based on claims from Digwa’s family that Nowak had racially abused them. One officer responded to his desperate pleas about being stabbed with: “I don’t think you have, mate.”

Henry then passed out and died, drowned in his own blood.

Digwa’s brother told the emergency call handler: “We just got attacked racially by some white person… Physically attacked my brother, we’re Sikhs, we wear turbans, and he attacked my brother.”

Videos shown to jurors captured Digwa and his brother accusing Nowak of a racial attack. Nowak denied it. Digwa was heard saying: “No one stabbed you bro, you’re up. You’re drunk.” Digwa’s father added: “He’s pretending, a minute ago he was talking to you guys. Now he’s trying to get up and going to leave.”

Digwa openly carried the large 21cm shastar – a ceremonial Sikh blade – in public, along with the smaller religiously mandated kirpan. Prosecutors noted questions over why the larger weapon was present.

Digwa denies murder. His mother, Kiran Kaur, faces charges of assisting an offender by allegedly removing the knife from the scene.

Musk’s offer has ignited fury over what critics call two-tier policing – where accusations of racism against a native Brit appear to override clear medical emergencies. No officers have been named or disciplined publicly. As of today, no action has been confirmed against those involved.

This case has drawn parallels to failures where authorities appear more concerned with perceived slights than protecting life. Nowak was a young British student simply walking home. Digwa’s legal team argues self-defence in the “heat of the moment” following the alleged verbal exchange.

Yet the bodycam evidence, now public through court proceedings, paints a picture of a dying teen ignored while his attacker’s narrative took precedence.

Musk’s willingness to fund a civil suit underscores a growing frustration with institutional inaction. The trial continues at Southampton Crown Court. Digwa denies the charges.

Henry Nowak’s death should force a reckoning. When police treat a stabbed British teen as the aggressor based on unverified claims from the attacker’s family – while he bleeds out saying he can’t breathe – something has gone fundamentally wrong with priorities in law enforcement.

Religious exemptions allowing large blades in public, combined with a policing culture that appears to elevate certain accusations above immediate life-saving duties, leave ordinary citizens vulnerable.

Musk’s intervention shines a light where so-called mainstream coverage has lagged. Justice for Henry Nowak demands more than a trial verdict – it requires naming those officers, holding them accountable, and ending the failures that let a young man die in the street while pleading for help.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 05/22/2026 – 05:00

Shipping Turmoil Remains Largely Contained To Gulf, For Now

Shipping Turmoil Remains Largely Contained To Gulf, For Now

The world’s most critical maritime energy chokepoint has now been closed for 12 weeks, leaving seaborne energy supply chains heavily disrupted. Still, one UBS analyst points out that the shock has yet to meaningfully spill over into broader global shipping outside the Gulf area, suggesting the disruption remains largely contained for now.

It looks like non-energy related global shipping traffic is running just 4% below normal in May – a bit better than April,” UBS analyst Arend Kapteyn wrote in a note to clients Thursday morning titled “The State Of Global Shipping Disruption.”

Kapteyn continued:

Limited signs of spillovers to non-energy shipping (so far)

In our April 30 note, we showed how global oil/gas shipping traffic had fallen by 13% from pre-Middle East conflict levels—closely matching the disruption through the Strait of Hormuz—and how the various regions were trying to reroute ships to find alternative energy supplies. Today’s chart examines whether that energy shock is spilling over into broader shipping activity. A key question is whether fuel shortages are beginning to weigh on overall trade flows, providing an additional transmission channel to global supply chains. PMI delivery times have already lengthened by around 1¾ standard deviations, but it remains unclear how much reflects product shortages versus shipping constraints.

The chart shows our “momentum” measure of global shipping traffic—defined as tonnes of cargo multiplied by nautical miles traveled per day. We’ve aggregated the daily data at a monthly frequency (May is the average of the daily data month-to-date), and standardize using z-score over the full sample. Oil and gas shipping has continued to deteriorate, now around 4 standard deviations below normal. By contrast, non-energy shipping weakened through April (-2 standard deviations) but has partially recovered in May (now around -0.7 standard deviations). In level terms, non-energy related shipping/cargo traffic fell 5% in March (vs the prior 12m average) and 13% in April but is now back to just 4% below normal. In Asia—where energy shortages appear most acute—non-energy volumes were 10% below normal in April but are now running slightly above normal. In the Gulf, however, non-energy shipping remains severely disrupted (around 83% below normal), reflecting the broader impact of the Strait of Hormuz bottleneck on both energy and non-energy flows.

Meanwhile, Maersk CEO Vincent Clerc recently warned on CNBC that a “new wake-up call” for global trade nears if the Hormuz chokepoint remains shuttered through June.

Then there was a note from UBS analyst Pierre Lafourcade last week that said, “Supply chain stress is rising at its fastest pace since the early pandemic.”

The full note can be read by Professional subscribers here at our new Marketdesk.ai portal.

Signs that energy-flow disruptions are spreading into the broader shipping complex remain limited for now, with the stress still largely contained to the Gulf region.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 05/22/2026 – 04:15

Authoritarianism Doesn’t Arrive With A Coup… It Arrives With A Login

Authoritarianism Doesn’t Arrive With A Coup… It Arrives With A Login

Authored by Sam Lowry via dailysceptic.org,

Authoritarianism doesn’t usually arrive with a coup. It arrives with a login, a compliance form, a penalty notice for keeping records in the wrong format. It comes with a quietly extended electoral term, a cancelled bank account, a prison sentence for a social media post. Each measure has a reasonable-sounding justification. The problem is the direction — and how far it has already travelled.

Power is migrating from the visible arena of democratic politics to the less visible world of systems — compliance regimes, regulators with elastic mandates and an expanding mesh of rules governing more of daily life than most people have yet registered. No single measure looks like tyranny. The problem is the cumulative direction and the speed at which it is moving.

None of what follows was in any manifesto. All of it is happening.

Regulating what you may own, burn and keep

Consider what it now means to own a home in Britain. From 2030, landlords will be prohibited from letting properties that fail to meet the government’s Energy Performance Certificate band C standard, with fines of up to £30,000 for non-compliance. These are not derelict or dangerous buildings. They are perfectly habitable properties rendered unlettable not by any structural failure but by the Government moving the regulatory goalposts around them. The Government is consulting on extending the same requirements to owner-occupied homes by 2035, at which point the state would decide whether you may sell or mortgage your own home without first spending thousands on ‘improvements’ it has specified.

The reach does not stop at the front door. In Smoke Control Areas covering much of urban England, a council officer can issue you a £1,000 fine for burning the wrong fuel in your own fireplace. Since October 2024, keeping a single backyard chicken requires formal registration with the Animal and Plant Health Agency — home address, species, numbers, declared purpose — on pain of a £2,500 fine. The state now maintains a database of hen keepers and their motivations. The Government does not confiscate your property. It makes non-compliance progressively unaffordable until the choice becomes theoretical.

Regulating what you may drive, eat, drink and smoke

The same logic has been applied with equal enthusiasm to how you move and what you consume. The Zero Emission Vehicle mandate requires 80% of new car sales to be electric by 2030, transferring the cost of Net Zero directly onto buyers.

For those who cannot yet afford an electric vehicle, Ulez zones, congestion charges and Vehicle Excise Duty rates designed to penalise older vehicles have quietly converted a private choice into a regulated privilege — with the bill adjusted according to how closely your car aligns with current Government policy.

Food and drink have followed. The sugar levy compelled manufacturers to reformulate products using artificial sweeteners — aspartame, sucralose, acesulfame K — whose population-wide, long-term effects remain a matter of active scientific debate, the Government compelling the switch without accepting any liability for unintended consequences.

Calorie counts are now mandatory on menus, multi-buy promotions on unhealthy foods are restricted, alcohol duty has been reformed and the tobacco generation ban makes it illegal to sell cigarettes to anyone born after 2009. Each measure has a plausible justification in isolation. Together, they describe a state that has decided your lifestyle is a policy variable to be optimised without your consent.

Regulating what you may say, think, and joke about

Britain has no formal censorship, but it has developed something nearly as effective. The Worker Protection Act 2023, in force since October 2024, places a duty on employers to prevent harassment by third parties, including customers, producing a wave of conduct policies across the hospitality sector that effectively outlaw the kind of informal, occasionally ribald conversation that has characterised the British pub for centuries. The landlord must now consider whether his regulars’ banter creates a legal liability.

The Online Safety Act hands an unelected regulator the power to remove content deemed ‘legal but harmful’ — a category whose boundaries are left to Ofcom, an organisation that cannot be voted out. The same regulator’s approach to broadcast media tells you something about how it exercises that discretion. Ofcom has opened more than a dozen investigations into GB News since the channel launched, fining it £100,000 and placing it “on notice” for repeated impartiality breaches — including, in one instance, for failing to sufficiently challenge a guest who called climate change a hoax.

The BBC, by contrast, broadcast a Panorama documentary one week before the 2024 US Presidential election that edited Donald Trump’s January 6th speech in a way its own former editorial adviser later described as “a blatant distortion” — giving a wholly misleading impression of what Trump had actually said. The BBC’s internal standards committee was alerted in January 2025 and took no decisive action for 10 months. The director general and head of news eventually resigned. The BBC Chair issued an apology, describing the edit as “an error of judgement”. Ofcom opened no investigation. The regulator that pursues GB News across a dozen probes for technicalities around impartiality found nothing in the BBC’s year-long concealment of a deliberately misleading edit worth examining.

The Metropolitan Police’s Live Facial Recognition programme scans faces on public streets in real time. The Investigatory Powers Act requires internet providers to retain every subscriber’s full browsing history for 12 months, available to government agencies without a judicial warrant. You are observed when you walk down the street and when you go online — and what you say about either is subject to a speech regime that Freedom House formally downgraded in 2025 for the “proliferation of criminal charges and convictions concerning online speech, including speech protected under international human rights standards”.

According to Freedom of Information data from 39 of 45 police forces, cited by the Times in April 2025, police were making roughly 30 arrests a day for offensive online messages. Those arrested are not, for the most part, dangerous extremists — they are childminders, pensioners and tradesmen whose posts, in any previous decade, would have been considered unremarkable expressions of frustration. Some received prison sentences. Others were investigated for months before charges were quietly dropped, a process that served as its own punishment. As MPs noted in Parliament last November, Britain is now more willing to imprison someone for a social media post than for a rape — a remark that lands rather differently when you recall that the Prime Minister overseeing all this was, as director of public prosecutions, the man who declined to pursue the grooming gang cases later documented by the Independent Inquiry into Child Sexual Abuse.

This selective enforcement extends to political opponents with a consistency that is difficult to attribute to coincidence. Nigel Farage — leader of a party that received four million votes at the last election and has since topped every national opinion poll — was simultaneously debanked by Coutts and subjected to smears about foreign state funding made under Parliamentary privilege, beyond the reach of defamation law. An independent investigation found he had been treated unfairly.

This week, the Commons standards watchdog opened a formal investigation into a £5 million personal gift he says he received to fund private security — security he required because the Home Office, under the previous government, had cut his state protection by 75%, leaving the leader of a major political party to fund his own safety. Reform UK argues the payment, made before Farage became an MP and intended solely for personal protection, falls under the Parliamentary exemption for purely personal gifts. Both Labour and the Conservatives, whose own MPs and peers have faced a quiet succession of expenses investigations and misconduct probes that have attracted a fraction of this scrutiny, are pressing the investigation.

The pattern — exhaustive pursuit of the opposition leader, institutional indulgence of the establishment — is by now entirely familiar.

Meanwhile, a recent survey found one in five British teenagers avoids sharing political opinions for fear of being cancelled, and nearly a quarter said they had been asked to stop voicing their views at school. A democracy that teaches its young that silence is the safest course is not building citizens. It is building subjects.

The anti-democratic march goes on

Sitting beneath all of this is a surveillance infrastructure that no one was asked to approve. This week’s King’s Speech confirmed the Government is pressing ahead with legislation to support digital ID, with the stated intention of making it available to those who want it by 2029. This formulation papers over the fact that, as a condition of employment, it will in practice be unavoidable.

The scheme — a single Government database linking your right to work, immigration status, tax record, health data and right to rent — was opposed by Big Brother Watch and three million petitioners, and promoted most energetically by the Tony Blair Institute, whose principal backer, Oracle, holds over £1 billion in UK Government contracts and is considered the frontrunner for the infrastructure work itself.

The King’s Speech also confirmed the European Partnership Bill — legislation to realign parts of British law with EU standards across food regulation, energy trading and carbon emissions. The mechanism is ‘dynamic alignment’: the UK must transpose and implement EU law in relevant areas, while having no vote on that law and no seat in the legislative process that produces it. In other words, the Government intends to bind this country to rules made in Brussels by people we did not elect, in pursuit of a relationship the British public voted to leave. It was not in Labour’s manifesto, it has not been put to the country, it is simply being done.

When ministers then announced in May 2025 that they intended to postpone elections in around 30 councils — extending their own terms without a public vote — and were forced to reverse course only after a judicial review by Reform UK and legal advice that the plan would likely be ruled unlawful, the instinct being revealed felt consistent with everything else: that democratic constraints are inconveniences to be managed rather than principles to be upheld.

It would be tempting to lay all of this at Labour’s door, but that would be too easy and not entirely honest. The Investigatory Powers Act was Theresa May’s. Rishi Sunak introduced the Online Safety Act. Making Tax Digital, the ZEV mandate, minimum EPC standards, the sugar levy and the Covid surveillance infrastructure, including vaccine passports, were all Conservative creations. The party that styled itself as the guardian of British liberty spent 14 years building much of the machinery that a Left-wing Government is now operating at full throttle.

The lesson is not that the Tories were secret socialists. It is that expanding state power has become the default response of any government seeking to appear purposeful — and the machinery, once built, does not ask about the politics of whomever operates it next.

The collapse of institutional trust

This Government has proved itself neither cautious nor neutral. It has used lawfare against dissidents and opponents with a brazenness unthinkable under any previous administration, directing the apparatus of state — police, prosecutors, regulators, quangos — consistently against those who dissent from the approved programme. Trust in the institutions that were supposed to remain above politics — the courts, the civil service, the BBC, the police — has collapsed accordingly, and not without reason.

A foreign power has not captured them; they have been captured from within, by a professional class that regards the management of public behaviour as its primary function and the instincts of ordinary citizens as a problem to be corrected.

Systems outlast governments. The toolkit remains when the party changes — which is what makes the question of succession so consequential. Angela Rayner, widely regarded as a leading contender should a Labour leadership contest emerge, has spent her career to the Left of Starmer on every question that bears on the relationship between citizen and state. Starmer, for all his Government’s record, may yet prove to have been the restraining hand. The Conservatives built much of this machinery. Labour is operating it at full throttle. Whoever comes next may remove the restraints entirely.

Recovery looks a long way off. Whether it is possible at all depends on whether enough people recognise what is being lost before the machinery becomes too entrenched to reverse. Free societies are not lost in a single dramatic moment. They are lost in the accumulated weight of a thousand reasonable-sounding justifications for why, just this once, the state knows better than you do.

We are well past the thousandth.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 05/22/2026 – 03:30