Bas van Geffen, CFA, Senior Macro Strategist at Rabobank

Although the European Union is trying to reinvent itself with its pursuit of “strategic autonomy”, no one ever said it would be easy. We certainly have been saying that this would be a challenging endeavour, seeing how Europe does not exactly have a strong starting point when it comes to the required resources, or geopolitical clout. However, if these external weaknesses weren’t providing enough of a struggle, internal division may also throw a spanner in the works.

I’m specifically referring to the news that the German government will not increase its subsidies for a fab that Intel plans to build in the city of Magdeburg. The chip company was already due to receive €6.8 billion in subsidies for the construction of the plant, but has since increased its demand to €10 billion on higher energy and construction costs. Finance Minister Linder told the FT that he opposes such an increase, as the government seeks to consolidate the budget. That sentiment is not shared by the entire government, though. Economy Minister Habeck argues that they should match the subsidies provided by the US CHIPS and Science Act. Chancellor Scholtz is also in favor of more support for the Intel plant, as the company suggested it might then up its own investment spending too.

The German divide illustrates various problems on the road to strategic autonomy. First of all, the necessity to match the subsidies of other governments clearly indicates how the shifting geopolitical tides can lead to a ‘race to the top’, where countries –even allies– all try to outbid each other to increase domestic production capacity.

Moreover, it reveals the structural weaknesses in Europe’s governance when it comes to tackling such big continent-wide projects. Even though Europe has loosened its state-aid rules, and even though a limited amount of European funds have been made available to rejuvenate member states’ economies, a large part of the execution is left to these individual countries.  First of all, this means that countries with deeper pockets will be able to spend more to entice companies to invest in their regions. But that may also be thwarted by their mindset: if these countries prioritize the short-term balancing of the budget over structural improvements in the economy, that could hurt their longer-term prospects, and those of Europe. Of course, I’m not arguing for another spending splurge here, particularly considering the inflationary backdrop, but targeted investments in key areas that structurally improve the Eurozone’s economy should not be foregone due to near-term fiscal concerns.

But the fight for strategic autonomy, and particular chip dominance, isn’t only won by subsidies. Over the past year or so, both the US and Europe have already tightened the thumb screws on exports of the most state-of-the-art semiconductor machinery, including extreme ultraviolet and deep ultraviolet lithography needed to create these high-end processors. Additionally, the Dutch may now limit the risk of technology transfer even further: the Ministry of Education confirmed that it is working on measures that introduce mandatory screening of students and researchers working in sensitive subject areas, like these high-end technologies. The country said the measures will be country-neutral, but they follow the recent line of a toughening stance on the Chinese chip sector. This will likely further escalate the tensions between the Netherlands and China, whose relationship had already been under strain after the Dutch joined the US effort to bar China’s access to advanced machinery.

Silvio Berlusconi, the former Italian Prime Minister, passed away on Monday following his admission to a Milan hospital last week. The hospitalization was initially for a scheduled check-up related to a lung infection. 

Italy’s longest-serving premier had a history of medical issues, including heart surgery in 2016, and previously suffered from prostate cancer. He has been in and out of the hospital following his Covid-19 infection in 2020. 

Alessandro Cattaneo, the deputy coordinator of Berlusconi’s Forza Italia party, told RaiNews24 that Berlusconi died Monday morning at 86. 

Berlusconi made billions (estimated fortune of around $7.6 billion, according to Bloomberg data) through his media empire and owned the A.C. Milan soccer team before entering politics in the mid-1990s. He served as prime minister three times: from 1994 to 1995, 2001 to 2006, and 2008 to 2011. 

He served more than nine years as prime minister, leading four different cabinets, an unprecedented tenure in a country plagued by revolving-door governments. He also played kingmaker in bringing center-right coalitions to power, even when his party was no longer the dominant force. —Bloomberg 

Berlusconi faced several legal battles but was only convicted once in a tax fraud case, which led to a temporary loss of his parliamentary seat. He was also involved in a scandal around his personal life, in what was known as “bunga bunga” sex parties. 

Two members of the Italian government mourned his passing, with Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini calling him a “great Italian.” Defense Minister Guido Crosetto said his death marked the “end of an era.”

Even though Berlusconi was 86, he remained an active politician, sitting in the Senate, the Italian Parliament’s upper house, where he recently sparked controversy by criticizing Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. 

If you’ve purchased a new iPhone in the past few years, you might have noticed that a charger and headphones are no longer included as standard. Sigh… That’s becoming increasingly common across the automotive industry for electric vehicles. 

Ford Motor Company provided a new update about the 2023.5 Mustang Mach-E. Some of the changes include more range and faster charging due to new battery chemistry, as well as more powerful AWD trims and slightly lower prices. Website Autoblog pointed out that Ford recently pulled an Apple Inc. and no longer provided charging cables as standard equipment with the purchase of a new EV. 

Ford’s website shows Mach-E customers can add the charger for $500. This charger was once standard equipment with every new Ford EV, and the move appears to come after Tesla, Inc. ditched its long-standing policy to deliver every vehicle with a mobile charging cable. Tesla charges an extra $400 for level 2 charging and $275 for level 1.

Ford and Tesla’s moves are reminiscent of Apple removing chargers and headphones from the box of iPhone 12s in 2020. 

And it’s not just Mach-E. Those who purchase the 2023 F-150 Lightning will have to purchase charging cables separately. 

Last year, Elon Musk tweeted about the move to ditch mobile chargers as standard equipment for Teslas. He explained, “Usage statistics were super low, so seemed wasteful.” 

Usage statistics were super low, so seemed wasteful. On the (minor) plus side, we will be including more plug adapters with the mobile connector kit.

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) April 16, 2022

Or car companies have found another way to make more money — just like many of them are finding out how to charge subscriptions for in-car services (read: here & here). 

Authored by Adam Dick via The Ron Paul Institute,

A poll from the Cato Institute indicates that, while about half of Americans do not have an opinion regarding whether the Federal Reserve should “begin offering a government-issued digital currency, called a ‘central bank digital currency’ (CBDC),” among those with an opinion on the matter over twice as many – 34 percent of poll participants – oppose the prospect as support it – 16 percent.

This result of the poll conducted from February 27 through March 8 in collaboration with YouGov is promising for Americans concerned about the threat a CBDC, which the Federal Reserve and big financial companies have been testing in preparation for its potential introduction, poses to freedom and privacy in America.

The poll results further indicate that, if Americans can be educated about the abusive government powers a CBDC can advance, many Americans currently undecided regarding the introduction of a CBDC will see good reason to oppose it. Emily Ekins and Jordan Gygi wrote in their May 31 in-depth Cato Institute article concerning the poll results:

Overwhelming majorities would oppose the adoption of a CBDC if it meant that the government could control what people spend their money on (74%), that the government could monitor their spending (68%), that a CBDC would abolish all U.S. cash (68%), that a CBDC would attract cyberattacks (65%), that the government could charge a tax on those who don’t spend money during recessions (64%), or that the government could freeze the digital bank accounts of political protesters (59%). Americans were marginally opposed (52%) if a CBDC could cause some people to stop using private banks, resulting in some banks going out of business.

The candidates now in second place in the Republican and Democratic presidential primaries – Ron DeSantis and Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. – appear to be in the anti-CBDC camp.

Hopefully, we will see more and more politicians joining them over the coming months in standing up against this threat posed by the Federal Reserve and US government.

Meanwhile, it is also important that Americans across the country educate the people they come into contact with about why a CBDC in America is unacceptable.

The new poll from the Cato Institute suggests that many people will be receptive to this message.

In the graphics below, Visual Capitalist’s Dorothy Neufeld shows the change in residential property prices with data from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS).

Global housing prices rose an average of 6% annually, between Q4 2021 and Q4 2022.

In real terms that take inflation into account, prices actually fell 2% for the first decline in 12 years. Despite a surge in interest rates and mortgage costs, housing markets were noticeably stable. Real prices remain 7% above pre-pandemic levels.

The Growth in House Prices, Ranked

The following dataset from the BIS covers nominal and real house price growth across 58 countries and regions as of the fourth quarter of 2022:

Türkiye’s property prices jumped the highest globally, at nearly 168% amid soaring inflation.

Real estate demand has increased alongside declining interest rates. The government drastically cut interest rates from 19% in late 2021 to 8.5% to support a weakening economy.

Many European countries saw some of the highest price growth in nominal terms. A strong labor market and low interest rates pushed up prices, even as mortgage rates broadly doubled across the continent. For real price growth, most countries were in negative territory—notably Sweden, Germany, and Denmark.

Nominal U.S. housing prices grew just over 7%, while real price growth halted to 0%. Prices have remained elevated given the stubbornly low supply of inventory. In fact, residential prices remain 45% above pre-pandemic levels.

How Do Interest Rates Impact Property Markets?

Global house prices boomed during the pandemic as central banks cut interest rates to prop up economies.

Now, rates have returned to levels last seen before the Global Financial Crisis. On average, rates have increased four percentage points in many major economies. Roughly three-quarters of the countries in the BIS dataset witnessed negative year-over-year real house price growth as of the fourth quarter of 2022.

Interest rates have a large impact on property prices. Cross-country evidence shows that for every one percentage point increase in real interest rates, the growth rate of housing prices tends to fall by about two percentage points.

When Will Housing Prices Fall?

The rise in U.S. interest rates has been counteracted by homeowners being reluctant to sell so they can keep their low mortgage rates. As a result, it is keeping inventory low and prices high. Homeowners can’t sell and keep their low mortgage rates unless they meet strict conditions on a new property.

Additionally, several other factors impact price dynamics. Construction costs, income growth, labor shortages, and population growth all play a role.

With a strong labor market continuing through 2023, stable incomes may help stave off prices from falling. On the other hand, buyers with floating-rate mortgages face steeper costs and may be unable to afford new rates. This could increase housing supply in the market, potentially leading to lower prices.

Authored by Finian Cunningham,

British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak went to Washington last week cap-in-hand hawking a nefarious deal. Post-Brexit Britain is seeking a much-coveted bilateral trade pact with the United States, and to avail of Uncle Sam’s favor the British are offering to step up its role as provocateur-in-chief in the proxy war against Russia.

U.S. President Joe Biden and Sunak hailed the usual platitudes about their nations’ “special relationship” during the British premier’s two-day trip to Washington. Sunak added a new unctuous epithet, referring to the U.S. and Britain as the world’s “indispensable alliance”.

Topping their agenda in the White House summit was the conflict in Ukraine, Russia, China and trade issues.

Biden and Sunak unveiled an “Atlantic Declaration” promising closer cooperation on economics, security, military and artificial intelligence between the United States and Britain.

But crucially missing from the U.S. side was any concrete commitment to a new bilateral trade deal. When Britain left the European Union in 2020, the historic departure from that trade bloc was calculatedly made with the aspiration of securing an alternative special trading arrangement with the United States.

The Conservative government made the securing of a U.S.-UK trade pact a commitment to British voters at the last general election in 2019. Nearly four years on, however, London is no closer to tying itself to the American raft after cutting itself loose from the EU. That drifting situation has caused unprecedented economic and political turmoil in Britain.

Sunak is the third British prime minister that Biden has had dealings with as president, reflecting the unstable politics in Britain provoked by its post-Brexit tribulations.

Securing a trade agreement with the United States is a priority need for London. As Washington under the Biden administration adopts more protectionist economic policies, Britain is keen to obtain concessions for accessing the American economy.

This fraught juncture is what makes London’s role as Washington’s global henchman more dangerous than usual. In order to win economic favors, Britain is more disposed than ever to escalate U.S. imperial hostilities toward Russia and China. Those hostilities are impelled by Washington’s own imperial decline as the once presumed “sole superpower” and “global hegemon”.

During his White House meeting, Sunak pointedly presented Britain and the United States as the two main military supporters of Ukraine in the war against Russia. He also said that Britain would be taking a lead role in cementing the new military alliance – AUKUS – between Australia, the United Kingdom and the U.S. That alliance, which involves supplying nuclear-powered submarines to Australia, is explicitly aimed at confronting China in the Asia-Pacific. In an affected attempt to sound profound, Sunak said that security of the Atlantic was “indivisible” from security in Asia-Pacific.

In the Ukraine conflict over the past 16 months, Britain has distinguished itself as NATO’s provocateur-in-chief. While in Washington, Sunak boasted about Britain supplying battlefield tanks, longer-range missiles and training Ukrainian pilots on the soon-to-be-delivered U.S.-made F-16 fighter jets.

The British PM also obsequiously set himself the task of driving other European members of the NATO alliance to increase their military support (that is, buying Pentagon’s weapons) for Ukraine. Much to Washington’s delight, no doubt.

The war in Ukraine is reaching a more dangerous stage of direct NATO confrontation with Russia. The “undeclared war” so far is liable to become an all-out conflict between nuclear-armed states.

While Sunak visited the White House – it was his fourth meeting with Biden in four months – the NATO-backed Kiev regime began its long-anticipated counteroffensive against Russian forces. There were reports of NATO-supplied tanks being destroyed in the latest fighting.

Britain’s recently supplied Storm Shadow cruise missiles – with a range of 300 km, the longest among all NATO missiles supplied so far – have been targeting Russian territory. Some of the British weapons have hit civilian centers causing deaths.

London has also supplied depleted uranium artillery shells to the Ukrainian military, which Moscow has furiously condemned as tantamount to “unleashing dirty bombs”.

Britain has sent the biggest number of special forces out of all the 31 NATO member states to assist Ukraine on the ground.

Post-Brexit Britain is in a quandary of its own making. It has lost influence in the EU, the world’s largest trading bloc, but London’s conceited dreams of “Global Britain” have not materialized. Far from it. Britain’s economy and society are collapsing under its own weight of poverty, inequality and corruption (like Sunak’s multibillionaire wife who doesn’t pay her taxes in Britain.)

The United States, despite all the rhetoric about having a “special relationship”, has not thrown Britain a lifeline in the form of a bespoke bilateral trade deal. Cut adrift, London is a dangerous entity (more dangerous than usual, that is). Economic duress is liable to make Britain more solicitous of Uncle Sam in providing its imperial enforcer role.

Perfidious Albion has already been instrumental in orchestrating several provocations to Russia during the Ukraine conflict. For warmongers in Washington who want to push a confrontation with Russia and China, the needy British bulldog is in a suitably keen condition to act as an even more vicious attack dog.

Laughably, Biden referred to his meeting with Sunak as akin to the first encounter between Franklin D Roosevelt and Winston Churchill in the White House to plan the D-Day invasion of Europe. The arrogance and delusional distortion of history are astounding.

“And I’m confident the United Kingdom and the United States will continue to lead the world toward greater peace, prosperity, and security for all,” Biden said.

Reality check: warmongering Britain and the U.S. are leading the world to the abyss.

Via The Cradle,

The Iran-Iraq Joint Chamber of Commerce Chairman, Yahya Al-e Eshaq, announced on June 10 that Iraq has released $2.76 billion worth of Iranian funds in gas export money owed by Baghdad. Iraq received a sanctions waiver from the US to make the payment.

According to an unnamed foreign ministry official that spoke with Reuters, Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein got the clearance to make the payment from US State Secretary Antony Blinken on the sidelines of the Riyadh Conference on Thursday.

Eshaq told Iranian media on Saturday that the released funds will meet the Central Bank of Iran (CBI) demands and ensure the purchase of goods needed in the country. He added that the funds could significantly help stabilize the foreign exchange market.

“Part of Iran’s blocked funds in Iraq has been earmarked for hajj pilgrims, and portions have been used for basic goods,” the Iranian trade official told local media.

In April, Eshaq said that Tehran and Baghdad had “found several solutions to receive our debt from the Central Bank of Iraq, so Iraq’s outstanding payments to Iran will be cleared gradually within the next three to five months.”

The US green light to release the money comes following reports that Iranian and US negotiators recently held “proximity talks“ in the Omani capital Muscat, with Omani officials going between them and passing messages.

According to the sources, the talks aimed to deescalate tensions as a basis for future talks on a new nuclear agreement between the parties.

In 2015 Iran and several world powers, including the US, signed the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), which placed significant restrictions on Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief.

Washington withdrew from the deal in 2018 and launched a “maximum pressure” sanctions campaign against the Islamic Republic.

After months of talks between Iran and the remaining signatories of the JCPOA, last September — under heavy Israeli pressure — the US put an end to any hope of reviving the deal.

Since then, Iran has restored ties with Saudi Arabia under a Chinese-brokered deal and is reportedly working alongside Gulf countries to form a “naval alliance” to protect the northern Indian Ocean.

Earlier this week, Iranian media reported that $24 billion of Iran’s frozen assets would soon be released from Iraq and South Korea.

Due to the sanctions on Iran, Iraq is only allowed to receive Iranian energy imports and pay for them via waivers that extend up to 120 days, a policy implemented by former US president Donald Trump and kept in place by Biden. The sanctions have also hampered Iraq’s payments for imports, putting it in heavy arrears.

Authored by Pepe Escobar,

U.S. Think Tank Land hacks are not exactly familiar with Montaigne: “On the highest throne in the world, we still sit only on our own bottom.”

Hubris leads these specimens to presume their flaccid bottoms are placed high above anyone else’s. The result is that a trademark mix of arrogance and ignorance always ends up unmasking the predictability of their forecasts.

U.S. Think Tank Land – inebriated by their self-created aura of power – always telegraphs in advance what they’re up to. That was the case with Project 9/11 (“We need a new Pearl Harbor”). That was the case with the RAND report on over-extending and unbalancing Russia. And now that’s the case with the incoming American War on BRICS as outlined by the chairman of the New York-based Eurasia Group.

It’s always painful to suffer through the intellectually shallow Think Thank Land wet dreams masquerading as “analyses” but in this particular case key Global South players need to be firmly aware of what awaits them.

Predictably, the whole “analysis” revolves around the imminent, devastating humiliation to the Hegemon and its vassals: what happens next in country 404, also known – for now – as Ukraine.

Brazil, India, Indonesia and Saudi Arabia are dismissed as “four major fence-sitters” when it comes to the U.S./NATO proxy war against Russia. It’s the same old “you’re with us or against us” trope.

But then we are presented with the six major Global South culprits: Brazil, India, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa and Turkey.

In yet another crude, parochial remix of a catch phrase referring to the American elections, these are qualified as the key swing states the Hegemon will need to seduce, cajole, intimidate and threaten to assure its dominance of the “rules-based international order”.

Saudi Arabia and South Africa are added to a previous report focused on the “four major fence sitters”.

The swing state manifesto notes that all of them are G-20 members and “active in both geopolitics and geoeconomics” (Oh really? Now that’s some breaking news). What it does not say is that three of them are BRICS members (Brazil, India, South Africa) and the other three are serious candidates to join BRICS+: deliberations will be turbo-charged in the upcoming BRICS summit in South Africa in August.

So it’s clear what the swing state manifesto is all about: a call to arms for the American war against the BRICS.

So BRICS packs no punch

The swing state manifesto harbors wet dreams of near-shoring and friend-shoring moving away from China. Nonsense: enhanced intra-BRICS+ trade will be the order of the day from now on, especially with the expanded practice of trade in national currencies (see Brazil-China or within ASEAN), the first step towards widespread de-dollarization.

The swing states are characterized as “not a new incarnation” of the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM), or “other groupings dominated by the Global South, such as the G-77 and BRICS.”

Talk about exponential nonsense. This is all about BRICS+ – which now has the tools (including the NDB, the BRICS bank) to do what NAM could never accomplish during the Cold War: establish the framework of a new system bypassing Bretton Woods and the interlocking coercion mechanisms of the Hegemon.

As for stating that BRICS has not “packed much punch” that only reveals U.S. Think Tank Land’s cosmic ignorance of what BRICS + is all about.

The position of India is only considered in terms of being a Quad member – defined as a “U.S.-led effort to balance China”. Correction: contain China.

As for the “choice” of swing states of choosing between the U.S. and China on semiconductors, AI, quantum technology, 5G and biotechnology, that’s not about “choice”, but to what level they are able to sustain Hegemon pressure to demonize Chinese technology.

Pressure on Brazil, for instance, is much heavier than on Saudi Arabia or Indonesia.

In the end though, it all comes back to the Straussian neocon obsession: Ukraine. The swing states, in varying degrees, are guilty of opposing and/or undermining the sanctions dementia. Turkey, for instance, is accused of channeling “dual-use” items to Russia. Not a word on the U.S. financial system viciously forcing Turkish banks to stop accepting Russian MIR payment cards.

On the wishful thinking front, this pearl stands out among many: “The Kremlin seems to believe it can make a living by turning its trade south and east.”

Well, Russia is already making excellent living all across Eurasia and a vast expanse of the Global South.

The economy has re-started (drivers are domestic tourism, machine building and the metals industry); inflation is at only 2.5% (lower than anywhere in the EU); unemployment is at only 3.5%; and head of the Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina said that by 2024 growth will be back to pre-SMO levels.

U.S. Think Tankland is congenitally incapable of understanding that even if BRICS+ nations may still have some serious trade credit issues to iron out, Moscow has already shown how even an implied hard backing of a currency can turn out to be an instant game changer. Russia is at the same time backing not only the ruble but also the yuan.

Meanwhile, the Global South de-dollarization caravan moves on relentlessly – as much as the proxy war hyenas may keep howling in the dark. When the full – staggering – scale of NATO’s humiliation in Ukraine unfolds, arguably by mid-summer, the de-dollarization high-speed train will be fully booked, non-stop.

“Offer you can’t refuse” rides again

If all of the above was not already silly enough, the swing state manifesto doubles down on the nuclear front, accusing them of “future (nuclear) proliferation risks”: especially – who else – Iran.

By the way, Russia is defined as a “middle power, but one in decline”. And “hyper-revisionist” to boot. Oh dear: with “experts” like this, the Americans don’t even need enemies.

And yes, by now you may be excused to roar with laughter: China is accused of attempting to direct and co-opt BRICS. The “suggestion” – or “offer you can’t refuse”, Mafia-style – to the swing states is that you cannot join a “Chinese-directed, Russian-assisted body actively opposing the United States.”

The message is unmistakable: “The threat of a Sino-Russian co-optation of an expanded BRICS—and through it, of the global south—is real, and it needs to be addressed.”

And here are the recipes to address it. Invite most swing states to the G-7 (that was a miserable failure). “More high-level visits by key U.S. diplomats” (welcome to cookie distributor Vicky Nuland). And last but not least, Mafia tactics, as in a “nimbler trade strategy that begins to crack the nut of access to the U.S. market.”

The swing state manifesto could not but let the Top Cat out of the bag, predicting, rather praying that “U.S.-China tensions rise dramatically and turn into a Cold War-style confrontation.” That’s already happening – unleashed by the Hegemon.

So what would be the follow-up? The much sought after and spun-to-death “decoupling”, forcing the swing states to “align more closely with one side or the other”. It’s “you’re with us or against us” all over again.

So there you go. Raw, in the flesh – with inbuilt veiled threats. The Hybrid War 2.0 against the Global South has not even started. Swing states, you have all been warned.

Another American has been arrested in Russia and could be detained for “several years” – CNN is reporting. 

Statements from the Russian judiciary have identified that “Travis Michael Leek” (the spelling of his name in English statements produced by Russian media have been disputed – and it’s since been corrected in some Western reports to Leake) was detained Saturday on drug-related charges.

Moscow’s courts of general jurisdiction issued a statement on Telegram saying he was arrested after “the Khamovniki District Court of Moscow took a preventive measure against an American citizen.”

He’s said to be a US veteran, specifically a former paratrooper:

“The former paratrooper and musician is accused of engaging in the narcotics business through attracting young people,” the Moscow court statement said.

The district court statement alleged that he “organized the sale of drugs to young people.” He’ll be in custody “until Aug. 6, 2023,” pending possible trial. Specifically he’s accused of selling mephedrone, which has effects commonly described as close to cocaine and MDMA.

Leake has reportedly lived in Russia for many years and is known as a musician and music producer. His family has said he goes by Travis.

The State Department in a statement indicated it is “aware” of Leake’s detention, saying “We are aware of reports of the recent arrest of a US citizen in Moscow.” It added: “When a US citizen is detained overseas, the department pursues consular access as soon as possible and works to provide all appropriate consular assistance.”

Local media reported Leake’s initial statement upon his arrest as follows: “I don’t understand why I’m here. I don’t admit guilt, I don’t believe I could have done what I’m accused of because I don’t know what I’m accused of,” he said.

Washington is likely to see this as part of Russia’s ongoing crackdown on Americans in its territory amid the backdrop of the Ukraine war and ratcheting punitive economic sanctions from the West.

Despite the December prisoner swap involving WNBA star Brittney Griner and Russian arms dealer Viktor Bout, other Americans which Washington declared ‘unlawfully detained’ are still in Russian detention. 

This includes Wall Street Journal correspondent Evan Gershkovich, former US Marine Paul Whelan, and school teacher Marc Fogel – the latter who was arrested in August 2021 for possessing medical marijuana. Being caught with drugs also tends to get Americans put under immediate suspicion of “smuggling” or intent to distribute by Russian authorities, which appears to be happening in the case of Travis Leake’s detention.

Leake is actually well-known in the Moscow music scene, and appeared on Anthony Bourdain’s “Parts Unknown” in 2014: 

CNN filmed with Leake in 2014 for an episode of Parts Unknown in Moscow and St Petersburg. Host Anthony Bourdain had personally handpicked Leake to participate in the show.

In the episode, Leake talked about his frustrations with censorship and relayed an incident involving his band and MTV. “This was a documentary series about musicians standing up and risking their lives in some cases, to stand up against government abuse of power, government corruption,” he said. “And yet, a foreign government was able to editorially control what Americans viewers see on their TV screens. That to me is a scandal of epic proportion.”

Darya Tarasova, who had produced the episode, said the “band wasn’t that famous but Travis and his friends had been very vocal about the freedom of speech and state oppression in Russia. “Bourdain really liked that interview,” she said.

Friends of Leake’s have expressed surprise that he chose to stay in Russia even after Putin ordered the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. The US has with increased alarm warned Americans to leave Russia.