Affordability-aiding lower mortgage rates battled a sentiment-sapping surge in geopolitical panic in March, with analysts expecting the latter to outweigh the former with a modest 0.7% MoM decline (after January’s plunged – weather? – and February’s modest rebound).

The analysts under-estimated the fear from war-mongering as existing home sales plunged 3.6% MoM (down bigly from an upwardly revised 2.7% MoM jump in Feb). That is the second biggest drop in existing home sales since Nov 2022…

Source: Bloomberg

That dragged Existing Home Sale SAAR back below 4 million homes (3.98m to be exact), near the lowest level since Lehman…

Source: Bloomberg

The NAR report showed the median selling price rose 1.4% from a year earlier in March, to $408,800.

Source: Bloomberg

Pushing Existing (Used) House prices back above New House Prices…

The inventory of previously owned homes edged up to a four-month high but remains historically depressed.

Source: Bloomberg

Contract signings declined across all  regions, according to the NAR.

Sales in the Northeast slid to the lowest on record in data going back to 1999, while those in the Midwest matched the weakest pace since 2011.

The NAR also slashed its 2026 existing-home sales forecast to 4%, from 14% previously.

“Mortgage rates have been rising, and that has led us to trim our home sales outlook for the year,” NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said in a statement.

It appears home sales front-ran the rise in mortgage rates since the war began.

Authored by Joseph Lord via The Epoch Times,

Lawmakers will return to Capitol Hill this week with a long to-do list as the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) remains in a partial shutdown.

Ending that shutdown—which as of April 13 reached its 58th day—will be a top priority for lawmakers, even as they remain divided along party lines on how to move forward with the funding.

Lawmakers will also work on reauthorizing Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA), a controversial surveillance law that includes the collection of American citizens’ personal data which is set to expire on April 20.

They’ll also consider a budget request from the White House raising the Pentagon’s budget to $1.5 trillion—by far the largest military budget ever requested.

Here’s what to know.

DHS Funding

Congress’s No. 1 priority will be to find a way forward as DHS remains shut down—though at present, a compromise still seems distant as the two chambers remain at odds on how to move forward.

Democrats have demanded significant reforms to Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and parts of Customs and Border Patrol (CBP)—both subsidiaries of DHS—in exchange for supporting new funding for the department. They have tied these demands to the fatal shootings of Alex Pretti and Nicole Renée Good in Minneapolis during altercations with immigration enforcement agents.

Republicans have rejected parts of these demands, particularly a proposed prohibition on agents wearing masks while in the field, citing the need to protect officers from being doxed by activists.

Some House Republicans have also pushed for the passage of the Safeguarding American Voter Eligibility (SAVE) Act, a voting bill, as a condition of any reforms to ICE and CBP. However, Senate Democrats have consistently opposed the bill, which doesn’t seem to have a clear path forward in Congress.

Before leaving for the spring recess, the Senate passed a bill that would have fully funded DHS with the exception of ICE and CBP, whose immigration enforcement operations have already been funded through September 2029 by the One Big Beautiful Bill Act.

House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) rejected this deal as a “joke.” Instead, the House passed a 60-day stopgap that would have fully funded DHS. That bill has been rejected by Senate Democrats for its lack of reforms.

Ahead of Congress’s recess, President Donald Trump signed an executive order granting full pay to agents of the Transportation Security Administration (TSA), whose increasing employee absences had led to record-breaking security queues at airports across the country.

FISA Section 702

Another top priority for lawmakers will be passing a reauthorization of Section 702 of FISA, a surveillance law that’s due to expire on April 20.

On March 25, Trump—a former critic of Section 702—requested that Congress pass a “clean” reauthorization of the law.

“I have called for a clean 18-month extension,” Trump wrote in a post on Truth Social.

Section 702 targets intelligence from foreign nationals thought to be outside the United States. Yet, it also enables intelligence agencies to gather “incidental” information from Americans who are in contact with targeted non-U.S. persons—all without a warrant.

Although intelligence officials must obtain a warrant to access Americans’ data directly, Section 702 has long caused bipartisan discomfort on Capitol Hill and beyond.

Previously, Congress had approved a two-year extension of the program with 56 major reforms designed primarily to prevent misuse of Americans’ data by agents with access to Section 702 data. It was signed into law by former President Joe Biden in April 2024.

Trump acknowledged his previous opposition to—and run-ins with—Section 702.

Nevertheless, Trump said, “When used properly, FISA is an effective tool to keep Americans safe.”

Trump’s $1.5 Billion Pentagon Budget Request

Another top issue for lawmakers this week will be Trump’s request for a $1.5 trillion military budget—the largest increase in military spending since World War 2.

In the April 3 budget proposal, the White House formally requested the historic Pentagon budget increase, though the amount had been floated by Trump for weeks.

The proposal suggests that this amount could be passed through a two-track process.

The bulk of the funding, $1.1 trillion, would be passed through the normal appropriations process. This amount could likely pass easily, as it’s aligned with the gradual increases seen over recent years.

The second track in the White House proposal would come through a $350 billion reconciliation package—allowing Republicans to bypass a filibuster from Senate Democrats entirely.

It would fund this in part, the proposal states, through a $73 billion reduction in non-defense spending,

White House Office of Management and the Budget Director Russ Vought is scheduled to testify before the House Budget Committee on April 15, and to testify before its Senate counterpart on April 16.

Iran War

While the U.S. and Iran are currently in a ceasefire, signs of its fragility are already becoming clear—meaning that the issue will be a key focus for lawmakers this week.

On Friday, peace talks between the United States and Iran in Islamabad, Pakistan, fell apart after Iran refused U.S. demands to dismantle its nuclear program. The United States demanded as well that Iran turn over its supply of enriched uranium.

After the peace talks failed, Trump stated that, beginning at 10 a.m. ET on Monday, the U.S. will set up a blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, as U.S. ships have already begun sweeping the area for Iranian mines.

Meanwhile, Democrats—with the support of some Republicans—have vowed to take action under the War Powers Resolution of 1973, which curbs a president’s power to wage war without explicit congressional approval.

Before the break, a bid by House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) to take action under the War Powers Resolution via unanimous consent was blocked by Republicans. However, Jeffries has vowed to force another vote on the issue this week.

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) has also stated that Senate Democrats will attempt to force a vote on the matter this week.

“Congress must reassert its authority” over war-making powers, Schumer said at a news conference on April 8.

Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) and Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) have consistently backed action under the War Powers Resolution related to the Iran conflict, citing Congress’s constitutional role in declaring wars.

Meanwhile, a contingent of Republican lawmakers in both chambers—including Sen. John Curtis (R-Utah)—have stated that they will throw their support behind such a measure if hostilities continue after the statutory 60-day window laid out in the War Powers Resolution.

Goldman Sachs reported its highest quarterly profit in five years, as the bank’s equities traders beat their own previous all-time quarterly high revenue by more than $1 billion thanks to a surge in market volatility due to the war in Iran; however this stellar performance in equities was offset by an unexpected drop in FICC revenues. Here are Goldman’s Q1 results in a nutshell:

• EPS $17.55, exp. $16.41
• Net revenue $17.23 billion, +14% y/y, exp. $16.95 billion
  • Equities sales & trading revenue $5.33 billion, estimate $4.9 billion
  • FICC sales & trading revenue $4.01 billion, estimate $4.87 billion
  • Net interest income $3.56 billion, +23% y/y, estimate $3.52 billion (Bloomberg Consensus)
  • Global Banking & Markets net revenues $12.74 billion, +19% y/y, estimate $12.5 billion
  • Investment banking revenue $2.84 billion
  • Advisory revenue $1.49 billion, +89% y/y, estimate $1.27 billion
  • Equity underwriting rev. $535 million, +45% y/y, estimate $478.4 million
  • Debt underwriting rev. $811 million, +7.8% y/y, estimate $771.7 million
• Total deposits $561 billion, +12% q/q
• Provision for credit losses $315 million, +9.8% y/y
• Total operating expenses $10.43 billion, +14% y/y, estimate $10.35 billion
  • Compensation expenses $5.41 billion, +11% y/y, estimate $5.51 billion

The Wall Street bank reported first-quarter net income of $5.6bn, up 19% from a year ago and better than the $5.3BN median analyst consensus. 

Goldman’s chief executive David Solomon said the “geopolitical landscape remains very complex”.

Goldman’s equities traders delivered revenues of $5.33BN, up 27% YoY, and ahead of the $4.9BN expected; This was the highest three-month haul by any bank in history, and was also more than $1 billion higher than the $4.31 billion record set in the fourth quarter of last year as Goldman benefited from wild market swings triggered by a string of geopolitical shocks. The equities boom was also driven by a surge in equities financing, which includes lending to large hedge fund clients and other speculative investors. It also came despite the abrupt departure of one of its co-heads, Erdit Hoxha, to hedge fund Millennium Management.

New regulation in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis pushed banks such as Goldman to eliminate their prop trading operations and focus more on facilitating and financing trades for other investors. These businesses benefit when markets are volatile, such as in the first quarter when there was frantic trading around the US military  operation in Venezuela and the conflict in the Middle East, which triggered a sharp increase in oil prices. 

On the other hand, FICC (Fixed-income, currency and commodities) traders badly missed expectations, posting $4.01 billion in revenue, a 10% drop YoY, and more than $800 million below the consensus of analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg. Goldman blamed “significantly lower net revenues in interest rate products and mortgages and lower net revenue in credit profuts” for the decline. It said this was partially offset by commodities and currencies trading.

Investment bankers’ advisory fees were $1.5 billion, 89% higher than the same period last year, beating expectations across the board and reflecting a rebound in merger activity. Total Investment Banking fees for the unit hit $2.84 billion in the quarter. Goldman said that the increase in investment banking fees “primarily due to significantly higher net revenues in Advisory, reflecting a significant increase in completed mergers and acquisitions volumes.” The bank also warned investors that its backlog of fees decreased slightly compared to the previous quarter. 

Even with the decline in revenues in its fixed-income unit, it was the third-best quarter for Goldman’s trading business in its history. 

The bank also said revenues at its asset and wealth management division increased 10 per cent to $4.1bn. These money management businesses are central to Goldman’s efforts to make earnings less reliant on the cyclical businesses of investment banking and trading. 

In the asset-management division, the company said assets under supervision rose to $3.7 trillion and net revenue increased compared to the same period last year. Earlier in April, Goldman said one of its private credit funds narrowly escaped a broader exodus of investors.

The bank’s own former chief executive officer, Lloyd Blankfein, warned earlier this year that private markets — on which Goldman has staked much of its future growth strategy — face a “fire” risk from possible excessive valuations. 

Goldman, which was first of the top investment banks to report results this week, has one of the largest markets divisions on Wall Street. Such businesses benefit from a surge in volatility, which has been driven by the war in Iran, as well as concerns around artificial intelligence and private credit.

While Goldman’s total geadcount was essentially unchanged compared with the end of 2025, in the first quarter, Goldman promoted seven more partners to its top management committee and hiked pay for its most senior executives, while also announcing the departure of its top lawyer due to her relationship with Jeffrey Epstein.

Despite the blowout overall results, the unexpected drop and miss in FICC was enough to spook investors, and send the stock more than 4% lower in premarket trading.

Goldman’s Q1 earnings presentation is below (pdf link)

Just two days after a Molotov cocktail was hurled at OpenAI CEO Sam Altman’s Russian Hill residence in San Francisco, another violent episode unfolded at the same address. Early Sunday morning, April 12, 2026, San Francisco police responded to reports of possible shots fired near Altman’s home.

Around 3 a.m. on Sunday, April 12, officers responded to a report of possible gunfire in the 2000 block of the Russian Hill neighborhood. Surveillance footage and security reports indicated a Honda sedan drove past Altman’s property; the passenger extended an arm from the window and fired one round toward the Lombard Street side of the residence. The vehicle fled, but its license plate was captured.

Investigators linked the car to Amanda Tom, 25 (the driver and registered owner), and Muhamad Tarik Hussein, 23 (the passenger). Both were arrested without incident on nearby Taylor Street. A search warrant executed at a residence yielded three firearms. The pair was booked into San Francisco County Jail on suspicion of negligent discharge of a firearm. No injuries were reported, and no one was inside the targeted area at the time of the shot.

SFPD has not publicly confirmed whether the shooting specifically targeted Altman or his home, describing it as an “apparent shooting near” the residence. Police Chief Derrick Lew emphasized the department’s zero-tolerance stance: “The SFPD takes crimes involving guns extremely seriously and anyone committing acts like these will be arrested and prosecuted to the fullest extent of the law.”

Investigators pinpointed the owner of the car, identified as Amanda Tom, 25. She and Muhamad Tarik Hussein, 23, were arrested not far away, on Taylor Street, police said. Officers served a search warrant at a home and seized three guns, police said. 

Tom and Hussein were booked into jail on suspicion of negligent discharge of a gun. –Chronicle

“The SFPD takes crimes involving guns extremely seriously and anyone committing acts like these will be arrested and prosecuted to the fullest extent of the law,” said Police Chief Derrick Lew. 

The shooting comes amid growing public anxiety over the societal impact of AI, from job displacement to the massive infrastructure demands of data centers. Last week’s Molotov cocktail suspect drove to OpenAI headquarters and threatened to burn down the building.

On Friday at around 3:45 a.m., 20-year-old Daniel Alejandro Moreno-Gama allegedly threw an incendiary device at the metal gate of Altman’s home on Chestnut Street. The device sparked a small fire that security quickly extinguished, with no injuries reported. Moreno-Gama then traveled to OpenAI’s Mission Bay headquarters, where he allegedly threatened to burn down the building. He was arrested there using surveillance footage.

The suspect, originally from Texas, faced serious charges including attempted murder, arson, making criminal threats, and possession of destructive devices. He remains held without bail. Online writings attributed to him reveal deep concerns about AI as an existential risk: he described unaligned models as capable of deception and warned that tech leaders were “gambling with our future” without sufficient morals. He had engaged with groups like PauseAI but was not an active organizer calling for violence.

OpenAI confirmed the attack and expressed gratitude to the San Francisco Police Department (SFPD), noting heightened security measures. Altman himself responded hours later in a personal blog post, sharing a family photo with his husband and child. “I love them more than anything,” he wrote, adding that he hoped the image might “dissuade the next person from throwing a Molotov cocktail at our house, no matter what they think about me.” He acknowledged underestimating the power of “words and narratives,” referenced a recent critical New Yorker profile amid “great anxiety about AI,” and called for de-escalation: “While we have that debate, we should de-escalate the rhetoric and tactics and try to have fewer explosions in fewer homes, figuratively and literally.”

As we noted on Friday, the timing and tone of Altman’s response appear to underscore a deeper reality now playing out across the country: financially strained American households are increasingly pushing back against the infrastructure demands of the AI industry. New data this week shows residential electricity prices surging in key regions, driven in large part by the explosive growth of data centers needed to train and run large language models.

Close enough https://t.co/reP3n5kJpR pic.twitter.com/PrH03ydD8A

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) April 10, 2026

Communities from Virginia to Georgia to the Midwest have mounted growing resistance – through zoning fights, moratoriums, and public hearings – over electricity costs, water consumption, land use, and limited local economic benefits, marking what one analysis described as a sharp escalation in Americans starting to revolt against data centers.

Summary

• Iran’s military says the US blockade on Gulf ports, now in effect, is an “illegal” act tantamount to “piracy” as Trump is also weighing limited strikes on Iran.

• US military says it is enforcing the blockade in the Gulf of Oman and Arabian Sea, Reuters reports. Pentagon says any vessel is subject to interception and capture.

• Pundits review breakdown of Pakistan talks, where the “gaps were enormous” – and yet Iran’s FM says the sides were “inches away” from an “Islamabad MoU”.

• Israel-Hezbollah fighting persists on eve of planned Tuesday talks in Washington between Israeli and Lebanese officials.

*  *  *

Gaps Were Enormous

In terms of airstrikes and rockets being lobbed across the Middle East, things have been relatively quiet since US-Iranian talks in Pakistan broke down over the weekend. As we reported earlier President Trump is mulling possible limited strikes on the Islamic Republic from here on out. The previously agreed-upon two week ceasefire is still holding despite the Pakistan talks having collapsed with no plans for any future round.

The only area that continues to see significant exchanges of fire is the Israel-Lebanon situation, where on Monday regional outlets are reporting a flurry of new Hezbollah attacks on northern Israel, alongside heavy IDF strikes on southern Lebanon from Sunday evening into Monday.

Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi had summarized the situation from Tehran’s point of view, writing on X Sunday that Iran and the US were “inches away” from an “Islamabad MoU” following “intensive talks at highest level in 47 years.” He continued, “We encountered maximalism, shifting goalposts and blockade,” before concluding: “Zero lessons earned. Good will begets good will. Enmity begets enmity.” Some of the latest:

IRANIAN OFFICIALS ARE STUDYING ABANDONING URANIUM ENRICHMENT AS A U.S. CONDITION FOR ENDING THE WAR – NEW YORK POST

NEW YORK POST: IRANIAN OFFICIALS ARE STUDYING ABANDONING URANIUM ENRICHMENT AS A U.S. CONDITION FOR ENDING THE WAR

Oil dumped on the headline once it hit Reuters:

Meanwhile Israeli Channel 12 journalist Amit Segal in an Islamabad post mortem has affirmed that the “gaps were enormous” between the two sides prior to Vice President JD Vance and his team calling it quits and flying back to Washington by early Sunday. “The Americans agreed to release a certain portion of the frozen funds and to end the war in the negotiations in Islamabad,” writes Segal. “In return, they demanded a 20‑year freeze on enrichment, the removal of enriched material from Iran, and free navigation in Hormuz without tax payments.” The nuclear front, he notes: “The Iranians discussed the nuclear issue contrary to instructions from Tehran, but the gaps were enormous.”

Iran’s Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf had impressed the American team as a “refined and professional bargainer, and potential leader of a new Iran.”

Source: David Ignatius, WaPo pic.twitter.com/HyEa7RnsIo

— Clash Report (@clashreport) April 13, 2026

Hormuz Strait Latest Threats

But after President Trump has begun his own blockade of the Strait of Hormuz (or is imminently about to begin), warning that the US military will “finish up the little that is left of Iran” – two ⁠oil ⁠tankers linked to Iran have exited the Gulf via the ⁠Strait of Hormuz, shipping data from Kpler and LSEG show. Reuters identified one as the tanker Auroura, ⁠laden with Iranian ⁠oil products, and the other is the diesel-carrying New Future loaded from ⁠the Hamriyah port ⁠in the UAE.

The ongoing standoff has resulted in a fresh Monday warning out of Iran’s armed forces. It said according to state-run IRIB News, also cited in Bloomberg: “If the security of Iran’s ports in the Persian Gulf and the Sea of Oman is threatened, no port in the Persian Gulf and the Sea of Oman will be safe.” The statement added that “security in the ports of the Persian Gulf and the Sea of Oman is either for everyone or for no one.” US restrictions on the movement of vessels in international waters are “illegal and constitute an act of piracy” and thus Iran stands ready to “firmly implement a permanent mechanism to control the Strait of Hormuz.” Reuters reports Monday:

The U.S. military will enforce a ​blockade in the Gulf of Oman ‌and Arabian Sea east of the Strait of Hormuz and it will apply to all vessel ​traffic regardless of flag, the U.S. Central ​Command said in a note to ⁠seafarers seen by Reuters on Monday.

The note ​said the blockade would come into effect at ​1400 GMT on Monday.

Meanwhile the Europeans continue to pay lip service joining some kind of coalition to reopen the strait. France and the United Kingdom have said they are busy organizing a conference for the coming days for countries seeking to establish a “strictly defensive” and “peaceful” mission aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz. French President Emmanuel Macron stated on X Monday that “France stands ready to play its full part, as it has consistently sought to do since the very first day of the conflict.”

No effort must be spared to swiftly reach, through diplomatic means, a strong and lasting settlement to the conflict in the Middle East.

Such a settlement must provide the region with a robust framework enabling all to live in peace and security.…

— Emmanuel Macron (@EmmanuelMacron) April 13, 2026

He also made clear France’s position that the “core issues” of Iran’s nuclear program as well as ballistic missile arsenal must still be addressed. According to Bloomberg, the UK continues to resist calls from Washington for a proposed Hormuz blockade. This ensures another point of contention between Trump and PM Keir Starmer.

Lingering Fighting in Lebanon on Eve of Washington Talks

Tit-for-tat attacks across the Israel-Lebanon border have not ceased, while certainly becoming less severe compared to the last Wednesday massive surprise Israeli attacks on Beirut and the south. However, Al Jazeera reports Monday that “Israeli attacks have not let up in southern Lebanon, hitting many villages and towns, with the latest attacks on Nabatieh al-Fawqa, al-Abbassieh and Bint Jbeil.”

Hezbollah in turn declared it targeted Israeli soldiers in the Shlomi settlement “with a swarm of attack drones.” Warning sirens have continued to blare across Northern Israel and the Galilee area as a result, with Israeli media reporting that four rockets were fired by Hezbollah, but Israeli defenses were able to intercept two, with the other pair falling in an open area and no reports of casualties. 

⚡️Latge scale drone attack in the north now pic.twitter.com/UNLia6ipkv

— War Monitor (@WarMonitors) April 13, 2026

Lebanon’s National News Agency has said that Israeli forces struck at least 30 locations across southern Lebanon on Sunday, along with areas of the western Beqaa Valley. From Sunday into Monday at least five people were killed and nine injured in strikes on Bazouriyeh, amid an ongoing rescue effort. One strike hit the town’s main school and damaged the structure, and elsewhere one person was killed in Nabatieh al-Fawqa, another in Sir al-Gharbiya, and two residents of Shoukin were killed early Monday morning.

Planned peace talks involving Israel and Lebanon are still set to go forward for Tuesday in Washington. Israel’s ambassador to the United States, Yechiel Leiter, is spearheading the Israeli side.

“In the conversation earlier today in Washington between the Israeli and Lebanese ambassadors to Washington, together with the US ambassador to Lebanon, and under the auspices of the US State Department, Israel agreed to begin formal peace negotiations this coming Tuesday,” Leiter said in a statement. “Israel refused to discuss a ceasefire with the Hezbollah terrorist organization, which continues to attack Israel and is the main obstacle to peace between the two countries.” Hezbollah too has said it would not talk to the Israelis, and so all of this means that Lebanese government officials will be doing the negotiating in Washington D.C. – setting up for only limited results if any.

Netanyahu Warns Iran Ceasefire Could End ‘Quickly’

Bigger war returning imminently? Fresh Monday words from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in a government meeting that the ceasefire with Iran could end quickly. He said, “I spoke yesterday with U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance. He called me from his plane on the way back from Islamabad. He reported to me in detail, as members of this administration do every day, on the developments in the negotiations. In this case, the explosion in the negotiations.”

Netanyahu asserted that the breakdown came from the American side, which would not tolerate what he described as Iran’s violation of the agreement to enter negotiations. He said the understanding required halting fire and reopening the straits immediately, which Iran did not do.

He said the Americans rejected that outcome and added that Vance made clear the central issue for President Trump and the United States is the removal of all enriched material and ensuring there will be no further enrichment in the coming years, potentially for decades, within Iran. He reminded officials that objective is also important to Israel.

More Geopolitical Latest

Via Newsquawk…

• A U.S. delegation led by Vice President JD Vance left talks with Iran in Pakistan after 21 hours without an agreement. Vance said the U.S. sought a firm commitment that Iran would not pursue a nuclear weapon or the capability to rapidly obtain one, leaving behind a “final and best offer.” Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Nasser Kanaani Baqaei said progress depends on the U.S. avoiding excessive and unlawful demands and negotiating in good faith, while Iranian reporting cited disagreements and said the U.S. demanded through talks what it failed to achieve through war.
• U.S. President Donald Trump said the U.S. Navy will begin blockading ships entering or leaving the Strait of Hormuz. He said talks went well and most issues were agreed except the nuclear issue, which he called the only one that matters. He added the goal is to reach an “ALL BEING ALLOWED TO GO IN, ALL BEING ALLOWED TO GO OUT” framework, accused Iran of obstructing that by claiming possible mines, called it “world extortion,” and warned that any Iranian attack on U.S. forces or vessels would be met with overwhelming force.
• United States Central Command said it will implement a blockade on maritime traffic entering and leaving Iranian ports on April 13 at 17:00 Israeli time (15:00 BST / 10:00 EDT), while not impeding vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz to or from non-Iranian ports. Trump later confirmed the timing publicly.
• Trump and his advisers are considering resuming limited strikes inside Iran alongside the blockade to break the stalemate, according to reporting by The Wall Street Journal, while remaining open to a diplomatic resolution.
• Mediators from Pakistan, Egypt, and Turkey will continue efforts in the coming days to bridge gaps between the U.S. and Iran, according to Axios. All parties assess that a deal remains possible, and earlier reports said talks occurred in a positive atmosphere with continued engagement expected.
• The White House outlined red lines Iran refused, including ending all uranium enrichment, dismantling major nuclear facilities, recovering over 400 kilograms of highly enriched uranium believed buried underground, accepting a broader regional de-escalation framework, ending support for groups such as Hamas, Hezbollah, and Houthis, fully reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and eliminating transit tolls.
• Iran’s Foreign Minister stated: “In intensive talks at highest level in 47 years, Iran engaged with U.S in good faith to end war. But when just inches away from “Islamabad MoU”, we encountered maximalism, shifting goalposts, and blockade”.
• Iranian armed forces warned that if Iran’s ports are threatened, no port in the Persian Gulf or Oman Sea will remain safe, according to IRIB News.
• An Iranian National Security Commission spokesperson called the U.S. blockade claim a bluff, according to ISNA.
• Israel Defense Forces said troops are expanding targeted ground operations against Hezbollah infrastructure in the Bint Jbeil area of southern Lebanon, killing over 100 fighters, dismantling dozens of sites, and seizing hundreds of weapons.
• Tasnim News Agency reported that the U.S. risks losing access to the Bab al-Mandab Strait if it escalates actions around the Strait of Hormuz.
• The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps warned that the approach of military vessels toward the Strait of Hormuz violates the ceasefire, according to IRNA.
• Israeli forces carried out two airstrikes near Choukine in southern Lebanon.
• The IDF defined Lebanon as the primary operational arena, while Iran is classified as an “arena of readiness” with heightened alert.
• Israel approved plans to establish 15 permanent camps along front-line Lebanese villages, according to Al Jazeera citing Channel 12.
• Israeli forces reportedly conducted a raid targeting Beyout Al-Siyad in southern Lebanon.
• Sirens sounded in Kiryat Shmona in northern Israel, while reports indicated Hezbollah launched missile attacks on Israeli towns.
• Emmanuel Macron said France and the United Kingdom will organize a conference in the coming days to restore freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, emphasizing a defensive approach and the need for a lasting diplomatic resolution and renewed peace efforts in Lebanon.

Aluminum futures in London surged to a four-year high on Monday as President Trump’s Strait of Hormuz blockade, set to take effect this morning, threatened to deepen supply chain disruptions across the Gulf region. On top of that, the Gulf’s largest aluminum producer declared force majeure on parts of its contract book over the weekend.

Aluminum climbed 1.4% to $3,547 per ton on the London Metal Exchange as traders priced in increased shipment disruption risk ahead of President Trump’s Hormuz blockade, which U.S. officials said would take effect at 10:00 a.m. New York time on Monday.

The move extends a broader war-driven rally in industrial metals, with aluminum up about 18% year to date, as the market remains gripped by supply fears and tightening Gulf flows.

Emirates Global Aluminum (EGA), the Gulf’s largest aluminum producer, recently halted operations at its Al Taweelah smelter following Iranian missile and drone strikes.

By Saturday, Bloomberg had obtained documents indicating that EGA declared force majeure on parts of its contract book.

EGA is jointly owned by Mubadala Investment Company of Abu Dhabi and the Investment Corporation of Dubai, and it reported 2.83 million tons of cast metal sales in 2025, indicating on its website that it accounted for 4% of the world’s aluminum production. The broader Middle East accounts for about 9% of global aluminum supply.

One of the clearest signs of stress in aluminum markets is the front-end squeeze in the LME curve.

The cash-to-three-month spread jumped 37% to $91.50 a ton from $66.70 on Friday, marking the biggest backwardation since 2007 and signaling a scramble among traders for metal supply.

Earlier this month, Goldman commodity specialist James McGeoch told clients, “Hard to think of a bigger metal supply shock: High degree of expectation this was where it was heading, but the initial reaction was to fade the uncertainty yesterday, that should be replaced by fresh length if history is a guide.”

Donald Trump has reportedly promised to pardon virtually his entire White House staff before leaving office, and the radius keeps growing. What started as a quip about anyone within 10 feet of the Oval Office has ballooned into something considerably more sweeping.

 “I’ll pardon everyone who has come within 200 feet of the Oval,” Trump allegedly said to a room of aides in a recent meeting, drawing laughs, according to a report from the Wall Street Journal. 

The report claims that staffers who raise the possibility of congressional investigations or prosecutions into policy decisions tend to hear about whether preemptive pardons are on the table.

The unconditional power to pardon is one of the most sweeping powers offered to the presidency. This term, Trump has wielded clemency far differently than any other president, dispensing some 1,600 grants to date. Many have gone to allies and donors, or those who had hired them, coming after a social pull-aside or a round of golf. Some have received bipartisan criticism, including one to a crypto billionaire whose company boosted Trump’s own digital-currency company, and another to a former Honduran president convicted of conspiring with cartels to ship cocaine to the U.S. In Trump’s first term, he signed fewer than 250 pardons and commutations. 

The president has repeatedly raised the specter of pardons with White House aides and other administration officials, particularly when staff have suggested they could face prosecution or congressional investigations over decisions, people familiar with the comments said. Trump is known to joke about matters that he later seriously pursues, and the frequent references have led some aides to believe he is serious about the pardons, too. 

They certainly have reason to be worried that Democrats will attempt to weaponize their powers to launch endless investigations. They’ve repeatedly promised to do so. In response to Trump’s immigration enforcement policies, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries not only promised to prosecute ICE agents and Trump administration officials.

REMINDER: To all members of the Trump administration.

The incitement and engagement in state violence against the American people is a serious crime.

Donald Trump will leave office long before the five-year statute of limitations expires.

You are hereby put on notice. https://t.co/hXAc0mGMrp

— Hakeem Jeffries (@RepJeffries) January 14, 2026

None of this happened in a vacuum. Trump reportedly weighed pardoning White House officials in the chaotic days after January 6, 2021, but decided against it. He later told advisers he regretted that decision. Democrats viciously went after Trump allies, rioters, and even Trump himself.

Critics will certainly want to treat this as a constitutional crisis in progress. But before the outrage fully crystallizes, it’s worth noting who opened the door. Joe Biden issued sweeping preemptive pardons for top officials and family members at the end of his term – including his family, Dr. Anthony Fauci, and the entire January 6 Select Committee – citing the possibility of DOJ scrutiny under Trump. Michael LaRosa, a former communications aide to Biden, had the intellectual honesty to say the quiet part out loud, saying, “By testing the boundaries of the pardon power, Biden cracked the door open and we can’t now complain about Donald Trump walking through it, even if he blows it wide open.”

The White House, however, is dismissing the Wall Street Journal’s report.

“The Wall Street Journal should learn to take a joke,” White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said in a statement. “However, the President’s pardon power is absolute,” she added. 

While the White House clearly doesn’t want to confirm the story, there’s reason to believe that even if Trump was joking, there’s a serious point behind it—and Joe Biden effectively gave him cover to act on it. The informal norms governing the pardon power took a significant hit during Biden’s final weeks in office. Trump declined to go that far when he left office in 2021, but with Democrats openly signaling plans to target his officials if they regain power, he may now feel compelled to act to protect them from what he sees as a weaponized justice system.

Authored by Steve Watson via modernity.news,

The British government has banned “step” porn, where the porn stars pretend to be related in a scripted format. Meanwhile, a bill earlier this year to ban first cousin marriage was rejected.

The crackdown targets consenting adults role-playing taboo family scenarios, including step-family tropes. 

Offenders face prison time, and platforms must block UK access or face Ofcom fines. It’s sold as “protecting children” and aligning online rules with offline laws.

Ban on step incest porn and ‘barely legal’ content in government climbdownhttps://t.co/FrwZcknX8v

— Sky News (@SkyNews) April 10, 2026

Yet the same government draws a firm line at stopping the real thing when it involves actual blood relatives.

🚨 UK GOVERNMENT IS OFFICIALLY INSANE

The UK has just banned people from watching porn that features “step-family” members.

Yet the same government still refuses to ban actual cousin-on-cousin incest.

Let that sink in.

They’re more concerned about fictional step-relatives on… pic.twitter.com/uzDk4REppS

— British Intel (@TheBritishIntel) April 11, 2026

First-cousin marriage remains fully legal in the UK. A Tory MP’s bill to prohibit it was blocked. Successive governments, including the current one, have opted for “education” and genetic counselling instead of legislation. 

An NHS report last year even highlighted supposed “benefits” of first-cousin marriage – stronger family networks and economic stability – before being quietly pulled after public backlash.

UK health agency cites ‘benefits’ of first-cousin marriage in bizarre report, unsurprisingly sparks outrage https://t.co/NrYLqX4BxE pic.twitter.com/r3zpJ7nW8N

— New York Post (@nypost) October 1, 2025

Critics have repeatedly pointed out that such unions are far more common in certain Muslim communities, particularly among British Pakistani groups where rates have historically hit 40-55 percent in places like Bradford. 

Many argue that’s precisely why Westminster refuses to touch the issue with a bargepole – cultural sensitivity trumps public health data showing doubled risks of serious birth defects, genetic disorders, and long-term strain on the NHS.

🇬🇧 “They did a study in Bradford, UK where there’s a high propensity of Cousin marriage and they found – that first Cousin babies had doubled the chance of a recessive gene disorder”

“Higher infant mortality rates, kidney and liver problems, developmental disorders”

“Many… pic.twitter.com/adIz5lVY4l

— Concerned Citizen (@BGatesIsaPyscho) January 16, 2026

Meanwhile, the porn ban isn’t happening in a vacuum. It’s the latest incremental step in a broader push that funnels users through age-verification gateways. Those systems don’t stop at blocking “step” content or barely-legal role-play. They lay the groundwork for something far more permanent.

As we previously detailed, Apple is already forcing iPhone users in the U.K. to prove age with ID or lose unrestricted internet access:

Similar pressures are mounting on phones and devices across the board:

The UK government’s plans for newborn digital IDs show the endgame: cradle-to-grave tracking dressed up as child protection:

This is classic nanny-state sleight of hand. Ban the pretend taboo to justify scanning everyone’s ID at the digital door, while the real taboo that carries measurable human costs gets waved through for political reasons. 

Fictional step-siblings on a screen? Criminal. Actual cousin marriages producing children with elevated health risks? Carry on, just don’t film it.

The message to the public is unmistakable: your private fantasies are the state’s business, but protecting future generations from documented genetic harm is not – especially if it risks offending key voting blocs.

Britain’s ruling class has its priorities exactly backwards. While they lecture the public on online harms and roll out surveillance-by-stealth, they leave untouched practices that clash with basic Western norms of family and child welfare. 

Freedom isn’t protected by banning role-play; it’s eroded when governments pick and choose which realities to ignore for the sake of political convenience.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Now defunct short seller Hindenburg Research had identified the executive by name in a report they published earlier the year before. 

$SMCI board member Wally Liaw and others were indicted today on allegations of export control violations, as we had alleged in detail in our August 2024 @HindenburgRes report.

Indictment link: https://t.co/dNIlfTpYJw

Hindenburg report link: https://t.co/jDDWeblHT2 pic.twitter.com/fqt3P628Ls

— Nate Anderson (@NateHindenburg) March 20, 2026

Authored by Thomas Brooke via Remix News,

A major new study has found that France’s food delivery sector is almost exclusively staffed by migrant workers, a majority of whom are living in France illegally.

The Enquête report, based on a survey of more than 1,000 riders in Paris and Bordeaux, reveals that 98.7 percent of delivery couriers were born outside France, with nearly two-thirds lacking legal residency status, highlighting the extent to which the platform economy depends on a highly vulnerable migrant labor force.

The workforce is dominated by recent arrivals from Africa, the majority of whom are not undertaking any other education or training in France.

A total of 55.2 percent of riders come from West Africa, making it by far the largest group. A further 17.4 percent are from North Africa, while 4.6 percent come from other African countries, meaning that over 77 percent of all riders are African-born. By comparison, 16.6 percent are from Asia, 4 percent from the Middle East, and fewer than 2 percent from France.

Most riders are new or relatively new arrivals. Some 98 percent of those surveyed had arrived in France after 2014, while 47.2 percent had arrived in the last five years.

🚴 « Ubérisation » et immigration clandestine

La quasi-totalité des livreurs de repas pour des plateformes numériques sont des immigrés récents.

➡️ Deux tiers des livreurs sont en situation irrégulière.

Les faits à retenir d’une étude inédite 🧶 pic.twitter.com/0U9r3VoC56

— Observatoire de l’immigration et de la démographie (@ObservatoireID) April 2, 2026

The vast majority do not have the right to work in France and are living there illegally — 64.4 percent of riders have no residence permit, meaning they are undocumented. Among the remainder, 12.4 percent hold a residence permit of at least one year, 9.7 percent have a permit of less than one year, and 13.3 percent have a 10-year residency card.

Many operate using accounts rented from third parties to circumvent work requirements, creating an additional layer of economic dependency.

The findings suggest that this structure helps explain the extreme working patterns documented in the report. Riders work an average of 63 hours per week, with most working six or seven days, often year-round. Despite this, average gross earnings were just €1,480 per month, with hourly pay equivalent to €5.83 before expenses.

Read more here…