Two Christian students at Michigan State University are suing a former professor, alleging that she forced them and hundreds of other students to pay a $99 membership fee to her own left-wing activist group as part of the course requirements.
In a complaint (pdf) filed last week in a federal court in Grand Rapids, Michigan, second-year business students Nathan Barbieri and Nolan Randomski said they enrolled in a required business communication course taught by Amy Wisner this spring.
Wisner, who described herself as “a single mom by choice, speaker, author, rebel professor, and social justice warrior” on a mission to “cancel the Patriarchy,” required that each of her roughly 600 students pay $99 to sign up for an online group called “The Rebellion Community.”
“This is a global social learning community with a private space dedicated to this course,” a syllabus of the course read. “You will engage with live and recorded content and connect with peers, alumni, and others for dialogue about important business issues.”
“Your membership fees are used to (1) pay for use of the technology and (2) pay guest speakers, educators, and facilitators,” it added. “Your professor does not receive any financial compensation from your membership fees as that would be a conflict of interest.”
However, according to Barbieri and Randomski, Wisner could have just uploaded the course material to the university’s online platform, “Desire to Learn,” which provides all services related to the class and allows all students to use it without having to pay an extra fee.
The two students, represented by conservative legal group Alliance Defending Freedom, also said they soon discovered that Wisner was the creator and controller of The Rebellion Community and its website and that she had said in different contexts that the money would be used to support left-wing causes, including abortion provider Planned Parenthood.
“The Rebellion community is a safe place to coordinate our efforts to burn everything to the [explicit] ground. 100 percent of membership fees are donated to Planned Parenthood,” the professor wrote in a Facebook post.
The suing students also claimed they have reason to believe that Wisner used the subscription money collected from students to fund “The Rebellion RV,” a left-wing activist project she described as “an RV roadtrip [sic] around the United States to cocreate communities of rebels committed to doing the work” and “igniting action at the local level.”
On May 1, Wisner posted a video to Instagram showing an RV with the caption “Let the games begin!” The students claimed that this vehicle was bought with the money her students were made to pay to The Rebellion Community.
Barbieri and Randomski, who identify as Christians opposing abortion and the left-wing interpretation of concepts like “rebellion,” accused Wisner and two other university administrators of violating their First Amendment rights by compelling them to fund political causes that contradict their views.
“They do not wish to financially support the speech of others that contradicts their views, and they do not wish to become members of groups organized for the purpose of promoting messages that contradict their views,” the complaint stated.
Following student complaints, Michigan State University placed Wisner on leave and assigned another professor to teach the class for the remainder of the semester, according to a March 1 email to students.
The university also offered a refund—roughly $60,000 in total—to students who paid for their Rebellion Community membership because the platform was “no longer required for the course.”
Barbieri and Radomski, however, said the refund came from the university and that Wisner still has the money. They want her to refund her students herself and provide a full accounting of how their membership fees were used.
“A $99 credit to the students’ University account does nothing to erase the constitutional harm that already occurred, nor to stop Ms. Wisner from continuing to use the money she unlawfully extracted from Plaintiffs to support her own advocacy and the advocacy of organizations that Plaintiffs oppose,” the complaint reads.
Citywide Youth Curfew Begins In Baltimore As Mayor Strives To Restore Law And Order
About six weeks after an incident where hundreds of teenagers wreaked havoc in Baltimore City’s Inner Harbor area, the city’s progressive leadership finally introduced a curfew Friday night to keep kids off the streets during late night hours.
Local media outlet WBAL reported city residents received a message and phone calls on Friday, reminding them, “Curfew ordinance is in effect from 11 pm. to 6 am all summer.”
The 11 pm to 6 am curfew is for weekends and holidays and impacts teenagers aged 14, 15, and 16. Another curfew for youngsters under 13 begins at 9 pm.
“Under the mayor’s plan, police officers will focus on groups of 10 or more young people, and identification will not be demanded,” WBAL said.
The curfew will be enforced in Inner Harbor, Fells Point, and Federal Hill — these areas are home to higher-income households, as well as bars and restaurants.
“There will be no pat-downs unless safety is an issue, and officers will not engage until a youth connection worker is at the scene,” WBAL continued.
There are a few exceptions to the curfew. One is that parents or guardians can accompany a minor during curfew hours.
If a youngster is found breaking the curfew, a relative could face fines of up to $500 for repeat offenses.
In a recent statement following its comprehensive assessment of U.S. policies, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) emphasized the need for the United States to maintain higher interest rates for an extended period to curb inflation.
Additionally, the IMF urged Washington to adopt stricter fiscal measures to address the country’s mounting federal debt.
Despite the U.S. economy demonstrating resilience in the face of tighter monetary and fiscal policies, the IMF noted that inflation has proved more persistent than initially anticipated.
The IMF’s evaluation, known as the “Article IV” review, included a growth forecast of 1.7 percent for the entirety of 2023, slightly surpassing the organization’s previous estimate of 1.6 percent in April. On a quarter-to-quarter comparison, output was projected to decline by 1.2 percent in the fourth quarter.
The IMF anticipates that the federal funds rate will reach its peak this year at 5.4 percent, exceeding the nominal 5.25 percent Fed rate, before gradually declining to 4.9 percent by 2024.
“While both core and headline PCE inflation are expected to decrease throughout 2023, they are predicted to remain significantly above the Federal Reserve’s target of 2 percent throughout the next two years,” the IMF’s May 26 statement read.
“With a large share of household and corporate debt contracted at relatively long duration and fixed rates, household consumption and corporate investment have proven less interest-sensitive than in past tightening cycles.”
The international organization warned that, because of these factors, monetary policy may need to get even tighter than today’s already restrictive levels.
“This creates a material risk that the Federal Reserve will have to raise the policy rate by significantly more than is currently expected to return inflation to 2 percent.”
IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva participates in a town hall discussion with civil society organizations at IMF headquarters in Washington on Oct. 10, 2022. (Drew Angerer/Getty Images)
During a May 26 press conference, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva stressed the urgent need for the U.S. government to address its deficits, particularly by implementing higher tax revenues.
“The sooner we implement this adjustment, the better,” she said.
“It is important to note that the fiscal adjustment can be front-loaded, which would assist the Federal Reserve in its efforts to combat inflation.”
Georgieva expressed hope that Washington would find a timely resolution to the ongoing debt ceiling crisis, warning against the dire consequences of a catastrophic default that would further disrupt the global economy.
“The U.S. Treasury market serves as a crucial stabilizing force for the global financial system,” the IMF director said, highlighting the contraction many economies are currently experiencing.
“If this anchor is disturbed, the world economy—the vessel that carries us all—will navigate uncertain and turbulent waters.”
She appealed to U.S. lawmakers, urging them to devise an alternative approach to managing debt that eliminates the need for annual debt ceiling brinkmanship.
“Could you please explore different avenues to address this issue?”
CNN Poll Says 66% Of Americans Believe Another Joe Biden Term Will ‘Lead To Disaster’
Following an Associated Press/NORC poll in April which indicated that only 26% of Democrats want Joe Biden to run for a second term as president, a recent CNN poll conducted by SSRS now shows that 66% of all Americans (not just Republicans) believe that another four years of Biden could lead to ‘disaster.’ Even CNN can’t dismiss the “horrible news” any longer.
— Young Americans for Liberty (@YALiberty) May 26, 2023
The reasons behind this massive decline in support vary. Biden’s bizarre behavior during the entirety of his first term has led to multiple embarrassing displays during diplomatic events, and many people are beginning to suspect he is suffering from some form of dementia. Biden has a long list of recorded flubs and outright fantasy tales, from multiple claims that his son “died in the Iraq war” when he actually died of brain cancer…
President Joe Biden mistakenly tells troops in Japan that his son died in the Iraq war when his son actually died in Maryland from Cancer. pic.twitter.com/MFnymPjHyb
To his constant aimless wandering as if he does not know where he is…
The feeling of unease is only multiplied by the increasing tensions between NATO and Russia. With nuclear arms involved, it may be valid to demand that Biden finally take a cognitive test. Democrats are right to be worried.
In this series, we explore the contentious findings surrounding fluoridation of the U.S. public water supply and answer the question of whether water fluoridation poses a risk and what we should do about it.
Previously: A confounding factor in the fluoride debate is the arsenic that contaminates the industrial sources of fluoride added to public water systems.
A groundbreaking federal lawsuit could ban fluoride from drinking water, overturning a decades-long program aimed at preventing cavities that has been challenged by mounting evidence of harm.
The Fluoride Action Network (FAN) sued the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) under the Toxic Substances Control Act in 2017, and it appears to be nearing its conclusion. Under the act, citizens can challenge the EPA in court when the agency rejects a petition to ban or regulate a toxic substance. The FAN’s suit is the first in the 44-year history of the act to actually get to trial.
The lawsuit has included pointed testimony from leading experts on environmental toxins and admissions from both EPA and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) officials that fluoride could be linked to specific harms. The lawsuit has also revealed government interference in crucial scientific findings.
The lawsuit has brought attention to new research that links fluoride exposure to damaging neurodevelopment effects, concerns that have sometimes been deemed conspiracy theories.
“Opposition to fluoridation is now at least 70 years old, but for most of that time has been wrongly dismissed as a fringe and unscientific position,” FAN’s executive director, Paul Connett, said in a statement.
“The rapidly emerging science on developmental neurotoxicity, especially loss of IQ from early life exposure to fluoride, is a game-changer.”
Many of the most important science on fluoride has come via research funded with millions of dollars by the National Institutes of Health.
Some of that research has concluded that “the risk to children is too great to consider water fluoridation safe,” Connett said.
The Background
The lawsuit began after the EPA rejected a petition filed in November 2016 that called on the agency to “protect the public and susceptible subpopulations from the neurotoxic risks of fluoride by banning the addition of fluoridation chemicals to water.”
The petition referenced more than 2,500 pages of scientific documentation detailing the risks of water fluoridation to human health, including more than 180 published studies showing fluoride is linked to reduced IQ and neurotoxic harm.
In its Feb. 27, 2017 response, the EPA rejected the petition, claiming it failed to “set forth a scientifically defensible basis to conclude that any persons have suffered neurotoxic harm as a result of exposure to fluoride.”
In response to the denial, FAN and Food & Water Watch filed the federal lawsuit against the EPA.
The Toxic Substances Control Act is aimed at preventing harm from environmental chemical hazards before they occur and gives the EPA authority to regulate or ban the “particular use” of chemicals that pose an “unreasonable risk” to human health, including susceptible subpopulations.
The EPA made several attempts to have the case dismissed, each of which was denied by the court. After each side made its closing remarks in the two-week trial in 2020, the court made a surprise decision to delay judgment.
A 2nd Phase
Rather than issue a judgment, in August 2020, the court paused all proceedings and instructed the plaintiffs to file a new petition with the EPA including the new scientific studies.
They did so in November 2020, but the EPA denied it, citing insufficient scientific evidence, stating, “Without the final [National Toxicology Program] monograph, reconsidering the petition denial at this time would not be prudent use of EPA’s resources.”
That monograph is the National Toxicology Program’s report on fluoride toxicity, a document the government has been reluctant to release.
The EPA’s rejection of the petition means a second phase of the trial will take place. In explaining his decision to extend the trial, the judge noted the issue of ongoing science on the topic.
“So much has changed since the petition was filed … two significant series of studies—respective cohort studies—which everybody agrees is the best methodology. Everybody agrees that these were rigorous studies and everybody agrees that these studies would be part of the best available scientific evidence,” said Judge Edward M. Chen of the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of California.
Chen wants two documents in the next phase of trial.
The systematic review of fluoride’s neurotoxicity from the National Toxicology Program. The program’s report, which isn’t yet finalized, has been a source of controversy in the ongoing lawsuit. The report draft was made public on March 15, 2022, as part of an agreement in the lawsuit, but internal CDC emails obtained through the Freedom of Information Act revealed government interference with its release.
A Benchmark Dose analysis of fluoride’s neurotoxicity. The analysis titled “A Benchmark Dose Analysis for Maternal Pregnancy Urine-Fluoride and IQ in Children” by Dr. Philippe Grandjean et al. was published on June 8, 2021, in the journal Risk Analysis.
The court also expressed a concern that the EPA didn’t apply the proper standard of causation under the requirements of the Toxic Substances Control Act in its assessment of the health hazards of fluoride.
According to FAN, the court has set aside two weeks to hear testimony and cross-examination of expert witnesses based on new published research and evidence that has come to light since the last trial dates in 2020.
Grandjean has published around 500 scientific papers, and his study on the neurodevelopmental effects of prenatal mercury exposure was used by the EPA to derive a reference dose for methylmercury.
Hu and Lanphear are known for their seminal research on the impact and neurotoxicity of lead exposure, and both have worked with the EPA in expert advisory roles. Lanphear’s past studies were used by the EPA to set the standards on and regulations of lead.
In his testimony, Hu said his findings were comparable in magnitude to the impact of lead exposure, and in his closing statement said, “It is my opinion to a reasonable degree of scientific certainty, that the results of the element studies support the conclusion that fluoride is a developmental neurotoxicant at levels of internalized exposure seen in water fluoridated communities.”
Similarly, Lanphear closed his testimony by stating, “The collective evidence from prospective cohort studies supports the conclusion that fluoride exposure during early brain development diminishes the intellectual abilities in young children, including at the purportedly ‘optimal’ levels of exposure for caries prevention.”
Grandjean, a physician, environmental epidemiologist, and adjunct professor at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, testified on a weight of evidence analysis he did of all best-available research on fluoride and neurotoxicity.
“With a reasonable degree of scientific certainty, I therefore consider the elevated levels of fluoride exposure in the U.S. population as a serious public health concern,” he said.
Science for Hire?
According to court documents, instead of the EPA calling in their own agency’s experts on fluoride, they hired the outside consultancy firm Exponent, bringing in their employees, principal scientists Ellen Chang and Joyce Tsuji, as expert witnesses.
Exponent says on its website that one of the many areas it specializes in is toxic tort and supporting its clients on regulatory frameworks such as the Toxic Substances Control Act. They also note they have testified in quite a few state and federal courts.
Both reviews concluded that there was no consistent or convincing evidence of a “causal relationship” between exposure to the products and health risks, although not all scientists and studies agree with these conclusions.
Next: At the heart of the ongoing trial over water fluoridation is the NTP’s six-year systematic review of fluoride’s neurotoxicity. CDC emails obtained through the Freedom of Information Act reveal government efforts to stop the release of the review.
After a video of a Los Angeles nonprofit handing out meth pipes to homeless addicts in downtown Los Angeles went viral earlier this month, some say the so-called “harm reduction model” of providing drug equipment and a supervised place to use is saving lives, while others say it’s harmful and only exacerbating the city’s and the state’s homelessness crisis.
A nonprofit, Homeless Health Care Los Angeles, became the center of the controversy earlier this month, after a video went viral on social media showing workers passing out the pipes in downtown Los Angeles’ Skid Row.
Filmed by resident Tony Anthony, who lives in a nearby apartment, he told The Epoch Times he first heard about the issue in April and then began encountering it himself.
“I went out there to see for myself. It’s wrong what they’re doing, they’re giving them the tool to go out and get the drug,” he said. “I don’t think it’s helping them.”
Anthony said he understands why some services offer needle exchanges to prevent the spread of deadly diseases, but meth pipes just encourage drug use.
“You’re supposed to be helping people get off drugs, not helping them to stay on drugs,” he said. “I’ve seen what it does to people. When they smoke that methamphetamine, they go crazy, they take off their clothes, they run down the street, they break windows and break into cars and do all kinds of crazy things.”
According to the LA County Department of Public Health, the so-called Harm Reduction model focuses on “meeting people where they are,” by offering pipes and clean needles, supervised drug use, and overdose medication to help save lives.
A worker from Homeless Health Care Los Angeles was seen handing out meth pipes to a homeless person. (Screenshot via TikTok/tony1963iceman)
But Anthony said he and others that live in Skid Row fear some agencies helping the homeless are more interested in receiving government funds than solving the root of the problem.
“The more homeless people that are out on the street, that don’t want to get off the street, they’re making money off them. It’s called soliciting to the homeless,” he said.
He said “there’s money in homelessness,” and pointed to a Fox LA News news report, which showed the nonprofit in question receiving nearly $12 million in government funding in 2019.
Tax records show the nonprofit received $5.7 million in such funding in 2016 which doubled to $11.9 million after three years. Of the nonprofit’s reported $12.4 million total revenue in 2019, employee salaries and benefits made up $7.2 million.
According to the agency’s website, they operate four locations in Los Angeles. In Skid Row, they offer syringe exchange, Naloxone—an opioid reversal medication—wound care, acupuncture, food, clothing, and hygiene kits. Meth pipes are not mentioned specifically.
Representatives from Homeless Health Care Los Angeles did not return a request for comment.
Differing Opinions on Methodology
Other organizations serving Skid Row’s homeless population said they support the harm reduction approach, since, they say, it’s saving lives.
J. Ellis McGinnis, the director of communications for the Los Angeles Mission, also located in Skid Row—and which offers over 1,000 daily meals, hot showers, and temporary or long-term shelter—said while it doesn’t offer paraphernalia like other places and nonprofits, it supports the concept behind supervised drug use and offering pipes or needles since there’s evidence such can save lives.
“In the system that we have—which is to preserve lives—everywhere that there are safe injection sites, ambulance visits are less by [around] 60 percent, HIV transactions are decreased, there’s less of a demand on our ER and there’s less people who are dying,” he said.
Data published in 2017 from The College of Family Physicians of Canada, which is a professional organization representing family physicians in Canada, shows that supervised injection sites decrease overdose-related deaths by 88 fewer per 100,000 people observed citing a Vancouver, British Columbia study.
Overdose-related ambulance calls were reduced by 67 percent and HIV infections decreased but researchers debate over to what degree, according to the Vancouver study.
McGinnis said when it comes to viral videos such as Anthony’s, sometimes people will make judgments without seeing what goes on behind the scenes.
“It’s the visuals and images of a caseworker handing out a meth pipe that goes viral, but you don’t see how sometimes the same caseworkers are able to provide support during the comedowns because they’ve now built a relationship with the community saving lives,” he said.
Sidewalk encampment in the Skid Row neighborhood of Los Angeles on May 16, 2023. (John Fredricks/The Epoch Times)
But some others say they fear the harm reduction approach isn’t saving lives.
Andy Bales, president and CEO of the Union Rescue Mission with a location also in Skid Row, said he believes there’s no situation where free pipes or needles are beneficial to drug-addicted individuals.
“We’re totally against the Harm Reduction model. We believe it’s deadly and it’s the [reason why] nearly one-half of the unsheltered people in the U.S. are in California,” he told The Epoch Times.
Federal data released in December showed 30 percent of the United States’ homeless population is in California.
The Union Rescue Mission is a Christian-based non-profit also providing meals, showers, temporary and longer-term housing, and recovery programs to the homeless and drug addicts, with locations in downtown Los Angeles and Sylmar, California.
He tied the increase in homelessness and drug use in California to welcoming state laws.
“Our policies in California have doubled down only on Housing First,” which advocates for unrestricted housing, he said, as well as “Harm Reduction and the free flow of hard drugs.”
Bales said he specifically blames a 2016 California Law, SB 1380, which cut off state funds to facilities like his that have sobriety or treatment requirements for housing the homeless.
As for the agency passing out meth pipes, he said doing such could lead to deadly results.
“Homeless Health Care handing out meth pipes is irresponsible because, on Skid Row, there’s a combination of meth, fentanyl, and horse tranquilizer,” he said.
Although Narcan can prevent fentanyl overdoses, the recent addition of horse tranquilizer on Skid Row streets can’t be combatted, according to Bales.
“Nobody knows what’s going to be put in the meth pipe. … In the case of Skid Row sometimes it’s meth mixed with fentanyl now mixed with horse tranquilizer, and Narcan doesn’t work on horse tranquilizer,” he said.
People use drugs in the Skid Row neighborhood of Los Angeles on May 16, 2023. (John Fredricks/The Epoch Times)
The Los Angeles Department of Public Health issued a health alert in March warning residents to watch out for horse tranquilizer—known as xylazine—in illicit drugs, after increases in drug samples were found in San Francisco and San Diego.
Bales said the risks associated with a harm-reduction approach outweigh the benefits.
“We believe not in reversing overdoses as a practice but in moving people to recovery … Harm reduction without the intent to end addiction is unlikely to deliver any permanent reduction at all,” he said.
He argued that safe consumption sites may successfully help reverse overdoses for drug users, but the lasting impact is harming users’ brains.
“Every time you overdose, you lose two to three percent of your brain power or mental capacity,” according to Bales.
According to the National Library of Medicine—the world’s largest medical library located in Maryland—drug overdoses can cause cerebral hypoxia which results from cutting off the brain’s supply of oxygen and nutrients. A lack of such can lead to brain cells dying in less than five minutes, rapidly causing severe brain damage.
Last year, there were approximately 300 overdoses at a safe consumption site in San Francisco—known as the Tenderloin Linkage Center—according to the San Francisco Department of Public Health.
Since the center’s closure Dec. 4, 2022, overdose-related deaths between January and April of this year, compared to the same time in 2022, have increased by 42 percent, according to data released by San Francisco’s Chief Medical Examiner.
One representative who worked at the Tenderloin Center claims the rise is a result of the consumption site’s closure, according to an article by the San Francisco Public Press.
“When [it] was open, and we had a safe place for folks to go, the numbers went down,” Gary McCoy, vice president of policy and public affairs for HealthRight360—a nonprofit that provides health services, told the news outlet.
Lindsay Graham Meets With Zelensky – Says Ukraine War ‘Best Money We’ve Ever Spent’
Lindsay Graham, a remnant of the Bush era Neocon fold, has been a busy bee in the past year. He has visited Ukraine at least three times since the war with Russia began, called for the assassination of Vladimir Putin, called for the US to directly attack Russian planes, and he’s even demanded that the US put troops on the ground in Taiwan to fight the Chinese. It just goes to show that there are certainly a number of politicians that identify as GOP Republicans that do not represent the will of most conservatives and moderates.
Graham’s latest visit with Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky has been broadly publicized. Andriy Yermak, the head of the president’s office, released footage of the meeting, intercut with dramatic piano music for effect:
Lindsey Graham was in Kiev today to promise Zelensky that the US will support the war effort in Ukraine to the last man. pic.twitter.com/GRCHgtPASh
The notion of “bi-partisan support” is broached with Graham applauding, saying that US efforts in Ukraine are “The best money we’ve ever spent.” Congress approved over $113 billion in funds to Ukraine in 2022 alone, and around 60% of that was directed into Ukraine’s military.
Zelensky once again asked for long range weapons and air defense systems at the meeting, which might indicate that Russian missile and drone bombardment has been more effective than the Ukrainians have been admitting. The recent destruction of a Patriot missile battery in Kiev suggests that current air defenses are not adequate to counter Russian hypersonic weapons.
Though full transcripts of the discussion are not available, there was also some coverage of the Wagner Group. According to Prosecutor General of Ukraine Andriy Kostin, topics included “continued joint efforts to counter the criminal activities of the Wagner Group in Ukraine and beyond…” Even after the Wagner Group successfully defeated NATO trained Ukraine forces in Bakhmut, Lindsay Graham suggests that “the Russians are done.”
This kind of premature celebration does make one wonder if NATO is giving Ukraine false hope in their chances of gaining back any territory in the Donbas, let alone Crimea, given their long hinted “counter-offensive” has still not materialized. And Graham’s suggestion of bi-partisan US support is curious given polls show support from both sides of the political spectrum is waning.
American zeal for aid to Ukraine was never as widespread as the media made it seem, and there are no streets in the US with Ukrainian flags flying high as Joe Biden once claimed. However, among Democrats there has been a larger margin of blind enthusiasm for the war effort. This is changing.
Polling now shows that even on the political left there has been a marked decline in support, with the idea of any US military involvement becoming highly unpopular. After almost 20 years of fighting in a host of countries including Iraq, Afghanistan and Syria under the direction of people like George Bush, Lindsay Graham and Barack Obama, Americans are growing rather tired of the war hawks.
In the case of Ukraine, the political dynamic seems to have flipped, with Democrats now becoming the war party while conservatives largely oppose involvement. Meetings like the one featured from Lindsay Graham may be designed to draw out the war by encouraging empty bravado, when diplomacy and an ending to the conflict should be the goal. But where does it end? If Graham has his way, the inevitable result would be WWIII.
Managing risk. Mitigating uncertainty. Is attempting to crack this unsolvable puzzle all just a waste of time and energy?
The Popocatépetl volcano erupted last week. It was an impressive sight. Smoke and ash, in addition to 1,500-foot-high lava fountains, spewed from the volcano’s conical, crater top.
El Popo, as the locals call it, is about 45 miles southeast of Mexico City. Roughly 25 million people live within a 60-mile radius.
The eruption prompted the Mexican government to raise the warning level to “yellow phase three.” This means residents should be prepared to evacuate.
With a little luck, the volcanic activity will subside – for now. In reality, there’s no good way to evacuate 25 million people from a single area.
For example, when panicked residents attempted to flee Los Angeles during the 1992 riots the highways quickly grinded to a halt. Enterprising vendors traversed the immobile onramps on foot, selling bottled water and canned soda pop at a hefty premium.
Thirsty evacuees had little choice. They were trapped. They had to pay up. There was no way out of the LA Basin.
About 15 years ago we rode a bus from Mexico City to the municipality of Amecameca to visit our wife’s aunt and uncle. Amecameca is about 15-miles from El Popo. The views are extraordinary.
The volcano’s peak is about 17,800 feet above sea level. By comparison, the highest peak in the contiguous U.S. is Mount Whitney, in the Sierra Nevada Mountains, which is about 14,500 feet. The highest peak in the Smoky Mountains, Clingmans Dome, stands at a humble 6,643 feet.
El Popo is, in a word, colossal.
Acceptance
The name Popocatépetl comes from two Nahuatl Aztec words. They generally translate to ‘smoking mountain.’
From a third story rooftop patio, many years ago, we gazed at the towering steep slopes and ultimate summit. We pondered what seemed a likely and looming catastrophe.
Yet Tío Miguel showed little concern of the potential for fiery lava to rain down from the sky. Like residents of Portland, Oregon, with Mount Saint Helens in the distance, El Popo is warmly admired for the unique topographic relief it offers.
Perhaps it’s better to accept the dangers of life when there’s nothing you can do to prevent them – if and when they happen. In the case of El Popo, you could always move away. However, you would soon discover a different host of dangers.
Then what? Do you move again…and encounter some other uncertain danger?
Still, there are times when it’s wise to take a clue from the gods and get out of Dodge.
On the morning of August 24, 79 AD, residents of Pompeii, a Roman trading town, woke up with hardly a worry in the world. Why wouldn’t they?
Pompeii had experienced nearly 700 years of uninterrupted advancement. Residents lived in large homes with elegant courtyard gardens and all the modern conveniences.
Rooms were heated by hot air flowing through cavity walls and spaces under the floors. Running water was provided to the city from a great reservoir and conveyed through underground pipelines to houses and public buildings.
Fresh fish from the Bay of Naples were readily available in the Macellum (food market) and countless cauponae (small restaurants). Entertainment was on hand at the large amphitheatre.
Life was agreeable, pleasant, and idyllic for all – and it was only getting better.
Against the Gods
Yet, just when things couldn’t have seemed more certain for Pompeii, Mount Vesuvius blew. A cloud of gas and ash spewed down, instantly killing its inhabitants and burying the city under 60 feet of ash and pumice.
Nineteen hours later, where there had been life and a thriving civilization, there was silence for the next 1,669 years.
“You could hear women lamenting, children crying, men shouting,” was the account by Pliny the Younger, 61 AD – 112 AD.
“There were some so afraid of death that they prayed for death. Many raised their hands to the gods, and even more believed that there were no gods any longer and that this was one unending night for the world.”
Hindsight is always 20/20. In the case of Pompeii, the warning signs were evident to those who bothered to heed them.
Seventeen years before Mount Vesuvius erupted there was a massive earthquake that damaged many of the structures within the city. Then, leading up to 79 AD, frequent, but smaller quakes occurred. Soon no one seemed to pay them any concern.
In the end, the gods had their say. One day after the Vulcanalia – the festival of the Roman god of fire – Mount Vesuvius erupted.
Today in America, as in most developed economies, another Vesuvius of sorts is releasing warning ash into the atmosphere. But most of its caution goes unheeded.
Investors, with both eyes firmly fixed on interest rates and the major stock market indexes, are blinded by the politics of the moment. Partisan squabbles over a ridiculous statutory debt limit.
At the same time, all the cool and hip investors are keen for a debt limit deal so they can get on with bidding up another bubble in technology stocks – filled with the hot air of AI.
Are they missing something?
How to Face Risk in an Uncertain World
From our perspective, the debt limit and a burgeoning AI boom are mere distractions. Decades of bad decisions have stacked up in ways that make a pain-free reckoning impossible.
With a little study and contemplation one can see the facets leading to a mega economic collapse, financial crash, and complete societal breakdown coming into alignment.
Many American cities are already unlivable hellholes. Homeless drug addicts are ubiquitous, flapping their arms and flailing about on the asphalt. Youth flash mobs load up on five finger discounts with little consequences.
What chaos will there be when prices double and the unemployment rate tops 15 percent?
Still, what can you really do about it?
You can tie yourself into knots trying to manage your risk. You can buy put options. Regardless, there’s always uncertainty you cannot account for. So, why not keep things simple?
Perhaps an equal mix of gold, cash, shares of good businesses, and property will do the trick. Maybe, for kicks, set aside a few bucks to speculate on the elegant mirage of AI.
Then, with some spiritual guidance, you can get on with enjoying the good things in life.
Ultimately, you never know how it will all turn out. Sometimes winning is losing and losing is winning.
Consider Thomas Douglas Allsup. He passed away on January 11, 2017. But, if he hadn’t lost a coin toss, he would have perished on February 3, 1959 – the day the music died.
Instead, Ritchie Valens won the coin toss for the remaining seat on the fateful flight. Legend has it, he remarked, “That’s the first time I’ve ever won anything in my life.”
Soon after, the airplane Valens, Buddy Holly and The Big Bopper were flying in fell from the sky and crashed. They all died. Portfolio diversification couldn’t save them.
What’s the point?
The world is full of uncertainty and there’s nothing you can do to stop whatever it is that’s going to happen. So, to face risk in an uncertain world, make the best preparation you can, with the means available to you.
After that, enjoy the time you have and the people you have to spend it with.
As Lord William Rees-Mogg once remarked, “even our happiest moments are picnics on the slopes of Vesuvius.”
When we first happened upon the below clip of Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau speaking in a town hall event at the University of Winnipeg earlier in the week, we thought it must be parody footage. After all, what rational and serious individual can say with a straight face “2SLGBTQI+”…?
But the sad reality is that woke discourse in Canada as the only allowable public standard has long gone far beyond Portlandia levels of parody. Trudeau, ironically enough, was lambasting the ongoing pushback against Bud Light and other corporations for their so brazenly pushing trans dogma in ad campaigns. Trudeau said, “It’s scary to see what’s happening in the United States. Whether it’s 2SLGBTQI+ rights that are being constantly attacked… my government will never let that happen.”
Justin Trudeau is furious parents in America are boycotting corporate brands that are forcing transgender ideology on customers and children.
He’s furious they’re banning gender affirming surgery on children.
The Canadian government source explains these things are “continuously evolving”. Of course, we might add that this signals the Canadian people are soon to get bombarded with ever growing and long-winded 2SLGBTQI+ “explanations” for this expanding alphabet soup/Skittles list of acronyms and state-sanctioned terminology:
2SLGBTQI+ terminology is continuously evolving. As a result, it is important to note that this list is not exhaustive and these definitions are a starting point to understanding 2SLGBTQI+ identities and issues.
Different 2SLGBTQI+ individuals and communities may have broader or more specific understandings of these terms.
We’re not sure precisely when the prime minister and his government upgraded from LGBTQI+ to 2SLGBTQI+, but again it must mean his officials are busy practicing just trying say this, or are at least trying to wrap their heads around the “2SL” part of it. Is it like upgrading to the next version of Microsoft Windows, or the luxury trim and model of a car?
Canada has produced the above nifty little visual to help us understand, just in time for “Pride” month.
But we’re not sure that this official government explanation actually helps clarify things…
Two-Spirit
(also Two Spirit or Two-Spirited). An English term used to broadly capture concepts traditional to many Indigenous cultures. It is a culturally-specific identity used by some Indigenous people to indicate a person whose gender identity, spiritual identity and/or sexual orientation comprises both male and female spirits.
If you say 2SLGBTQI+ 3 times in the dark, black faced Trudeau pops out. https://t.co/JPsiNPwqvv
The political landscape in Turkiye’s has become increasingly convoluted after the May 14 presidential and parliamentary elections left the Turkish presidency up for grabs – with a critical, second round of polls to be held on Sunday.
As the main candidates who failed to secure the presidency in the first round prepare for the May 28 election, Turkiye’s patchwork system of political alliances has become more intricate, marked by polarizing debates on issues such as secularism, nationalism, Syrian refugees, and the Kurdish issue. In the very year that Turkiye celebrates the Republic’s 100th anniversary, the country’s political atmosphere has grown more uncertain than ever.
The official results of the first round of the presidential election saw incumbent Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the candidate of the People’s Alliance, obtain 49.5 percent of the vote, while main opponent Kemal Kilicdaroglu, the candidate of the National Alliance, received 44.8 percent – both remaining under the 50+ percent threshold required for an outright win.
Muharrem Ince, who withdrew from the race at the last minute, secured 0.43 percent of the vote, and Sinan Ogan, the candidate of the secular nationalist ATA Alliance, received 5.17 percent.
The sequel no one asked for
The second round between Erdogan and Kilicdaroglu has essentially transformed the election into a referendum on the former’s 21-year rule. The public’s sentiment and perception have therefore become crucial in this contest.
Despite the parliamentary election’s official results being due on May 19, the Supreme Election Board (YSK) has not yet released them, leading to some frantic domestic speculation on the reasons for this. Some observers have raised concerns about the possibility of fraudulent voters, as the number of voters is reportedly double the population growth rate. In normal circumstances, parliament should convene on the third day after the official results are published, and elected MPs should be sworn in.
However, Erdogan is purportedly stalling the swearing-in procedure because members of his alliance, the radical Islamist Kurdish movement HUDA PAR, refuse to utter the phrase “Turkish nation” during the ceremonial oath. This leaves Erdogan keen to defer the ceremony – and this drama – until after the May 28 presidential election.
In the lead up to Sunday’s polls, the main topics dominating Turkiye’s political discourse are distrust in the fairness of the election, Turkish citizenships granted to Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) nationals in exchange for top-dollar real estate purchases, and the wildly disparate numbers of refugees currently residing in the country (the government says less than 4 million; the opposition claims 13 million).
These highly polarizing issues have triggered a number of realignments within the two main alliances contesting the presidency.
This time it’s personal
Since the country’s 2017 referendum, in which parliamentary democracy was replaced by a Turkish-style presidential system that recognizes unsealed ballots as valid, electoral irregularities have become a recurring concern. And so the opposition is understandably apprehensive about potential “vote theft” and the security of ballots.
#Erdogan either does not recognize chief of security Muhsin Köse or does not trust him.
He accepts the same glass of water offered by his son Bilal Erdogan
— Marios Karatzias (@MariosKaratzias) May 22, 2023
Furthermore, the unusually high voter turnout rate of over 80 percent in Turkiye’s devastated earthquake-affected areas that claimed the lives of tens of thousands and caused mass migration, has raised questions.
In the southeastern region, which has a significant Kurdish population, Erdogan’s far-right, ultra-nationalist, Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) coalition partner, made significant gains in the polls, sparking allegations of ballot manipulation. Similarly, suspicions arose due to the unchanging 5 percent vote share garnered by the third candidate and kingmaker, Sinan Ogan, throughout the vote count.
However, after an initial week of furious debates, these concerns have now been fully overshadowed by the impending second round of voting.
In fact, the parliamentary elections, where Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) won 35.6 percent of the vote and the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) secured 25.3 percent – and the subsequent uncertainty regarding the exact representation of the two parties and their allies – have been largely forgotten.
The presidential contest has taken center stage as the sole, focal political point of interest. And last-minute shifts and tweaks in the madcap alliances that make up the two leading coalitions are all the Turkish media talk about.
Switching slogans and alliances
Kilicdaroglu’s Millet (or Nation) Alliance, which leads the narrative for change (essentially, ousting Erdogan), has adopted patriotic slogans such as “Those who love their homeland should come to the ballot box” and “Let the gates of hell be closed.” Although he emphasized “unity” and objected to Erdogan’s polarizing politics in the first round of polls, Kilicdaroglu has adopted a more confrontational discourse in this second phase. Interestingly, he adopted the “hell” slogan from Sinan Ogan, a candidate who was eliminated in the first vote and who has since endorsed Erdogan ahead of the runoff vote.
Before May 14, Ogan stated, “Maybe we won’t open the gates of heaven, but we will close the gates of hell.”The “hell” he referred to was the Erdogan government. While harshly criticizing Erdogan for his handling of Syrian refugees, Ogan also declared that Turkish nationalists – like himself – would never align themselves with the Islamist HUDA PAR. He even suggested that the Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP), representing Kurdish politics, would negotiate a deal with Erdogan in the second round.
But, ironically, it was Ogan who ended up striking a deal with Erdogan, announcing his support for the president on the grounds of maintaining “stability” in Turkiye. This, despite the fact that Ogan’s main condition regarding the repatriation of refugees appears not to have been met: Although a popular election issue, Erdogan has ruled out repatriating Syrian asylum seekers.
Winning over the nationalists
It remains uncertain how much of Ogan’s nationalist voter base will take to Erdogan. The ATA Alliance, to which he owes his candidacy, has become heavily divided in advance of the second polls. The foundation of the alliance consists of the far-right Zafer Party, in collaboration with some smaller political parties. Two days after Ogan threw his weight behind Erdogan, Zafer Party Leader Umit Ozdag announced his support for Kilicdaroglu.
Unlike Ogan, Ozdag says he has clinched a deal with his candidate – Kilicdaroglu – to repatriate Syrian refugees on the basis of international law and humanitarianism. Ozdag has also said they agreed that there would be zero compromise in the fight against the Kurdish PKK and terrorism.
A staunch nationalist, Ozdag frequently invokes Mustafa Kemal Ataturk – the much-revered founder of the Turkish Republic – rails against Erdogan’s role in accepting millions of Syrian refugees and selling Turkish citizenship in exchange for cash, and constantly warns about Turkiye’s “demographic threat.”
In part, this refers to the Erdogan administration’s distribution of Turkish citizenship to anyone who purchases real estate for $400,000, sharply increased rents caused by the influx of foreigners, and the perceived influence of these people (without any ties to Turkiye or knowledge of the Turkish language) on elections. All these issues feature heavily in the nationalist movement’s narrative and propaganda.
As an example, during the first round of elections, the Turkish public reacted strongly to a live broadcast on the private, pro-government A Haber news channel. In the aired footage, a Kuwaiti individual speaking Arabic into the microphone after casting his vote shocked Turkish viewers. The channel swiftly cut the broadcast and deleted the video.
Unprecedented election propaganda
But if this election can be distilled into a popularity referendum on Erdogan, the sitting Turkish president has some clear advantages over his opponent: He uses every state tool at his disposal and has a mainstream media loyal to him. While TV channels cover Erdogan’s statements and rallies around the clock, Kilicdaroglu has few opportunities to be nationally heard outside of opposition media outlets.
As a result, Erdogan has been particularly sloppy about his political rhetoric, making ludicrous claims and sometimes outright lies – without being duly checked by the media.
In a Trumpian boast during a rally in the earthquake-stricken province of Malatya, Erdogan boasted that the number of people who came to listen to him in the square was higher than the number of deaths caused by the February 6 earthquake.
While victims had cried out for urgent government assistance for days without a response – which Erdogan himself has admitted – he told rally crowds: “We mobilized all means from the first hours of the disaster.” There have been many such gaffes along the campaign trail this year, which finally culminated in a major media scandal over a faked video montage.
Erdogan accidentally admitted that a video montage shown by his team in public squares before the first round of votes had been faked. The edited footage depicted PKK leaders in the Qandil region of Iraq singing along to a song in Kilicdaroglu’s political ad. The intent of the video was clearly to link the latter to the PKK and terrorism.
The opposition reacted strongly to the slander, with Kilicdaroglu calling Erdogan a “montage fraudster” and filing a lawsuit for compensation. But because of the president’s iron grip on mainstream Turkish media, it is not known how many voters at those rallies are aware of the fakery.
The propaganda has progressed well beyond the video scandal. Fake brochures attributed to Kilicdaroglu, including bizarre campaign promises and praise for terrorism, have been detected and prosecuted along the way. There’s no telling how much of an effect these fake-news scandals will affect Sunday’s polls.
‘Unprincipled coalitions’
As the second round vote approaches, Professor Emin Gurses from Sakarya University, highlights the shallow opportunism of these Turkish elections, telling The Cradle:
“In Turkiye, there is an understanding that it is permissible to lie while doing politics. Voters voted for the candidate they know and recognize through trust. They [politicians] act to win the election. They don’t look at friend or foe.”
The last-minute alliance shifts may not even change anything. According to Gurses, Sinan Ogan has little to gain by backing Erdogan, and on the other side, even if a deal is struck with Ozdag, it will be challenging for Kilicdaroglu to close the 2.5 million-vote gap with Erdogan.
Meanwhile, columnist Mehmet Ali Guller from Cumhuriyet has highlighted the consequences of the 50+1 system in Turkiye, which he argues leads to unprincipled coalitions, with ideology, programs, and politics pushed to the background. Guller charges that there are no significant differences in the fundamental policies of both sides:
“There is no fundamental difference between the two options in terms of economic policies, it is in the details. And in terms of foreign policy, there is no fundamental difference between the two options, there are details. Because both options are essentially Atlanticist and NATOist.”
100 years on: It’s looking bleak
Regardless of the election outcome, Guller foresees an ongoing economic crisis that offers no short-term solution. He also notes that both Islamists and nationalists exist in the two main political coalitions, creating an ideological stalemate of sorts, and predicts that Turkiye will be forced to hold another election within the next five years.
If Kilicdaroglu wins, he may find himself governing the country using decrees inherited from his predecessor despite advocating for a return to parliamentary democracy, as his alliance will be in the minority in parliament.
In this “unprincipled” political environment, it is even plausible that Erdodan, the architect of the Turkish-style presidential system, may consider reverting to a “parliamentary system.” On the other hand, if Erdogan emerges victorious, an unprecedented economic crisis is expected, with Turkiye’s CDS rating surpassing 700 and the US dollar projected to reach at least 24 Turkish liras.
In the upcoming local elections, Erdogan is likely to continue his right-wing populist campaign to reclaim cities like Istanbul, which he lost in 2019.
Because Turkiye requires at least $200 billion in resources, Erdogan’s foreign policy stance will be determined by economic opportunity, as he is not seen as a reliable partner by any country, on either side of the global divide. He is expected to continue his balancing act: putting the “migrant issue” before the EU; Syria and Ukraine before Russia; relations with Russia before the US, and using Turkiye’s presence in Syria as leverage over the Arab world, using these as bargaining chips to maximize his gains.
In any case, the outlook for the Republic of Turkiye, on its 100th anniversary, appears bleak.
