Authored by Dorothy Li via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

A group of 43 Republicans in the U.S. Senate said on May 6 that they “oppose raising the debt ceiling without substantive spending and budget reforms,” coalescing around their House counterparts ahead of the White House meeting over the federal debt ceiling amid a monthslong political standoff.

“The Senate Republican conference is united behind the House Republican conference in support of spending cuts and structural budget reform as a starting point for negotiations on the debt ceiling,” the group of Republicans, led by Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah), said in a letter addressed to Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-Calif.).

Almost all Republicans in the Senate signed the letter, including Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.).

“It is now clear that Senate Republicans aren’t going to bail out Biden and Schumer, they have to negotiate,” Lee said in the statement accompanying the letter.

“I thank my colleagues for joining my effort to emphasize this point in the clearest possible terms.”

President Joe Biden is scheduled to sit down with House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) on May 9 to discuss a path forward on the federal debt ceiling. But the White House has signaled that there would be little compromise from the president.

“[Biden] is not going to negotiate on the debt ceiling,” White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre told reporters on May 2.

However, the president “is willing to have a separate conversation about their spending, what they want to do with the budget,” she said.

Biden and McCarthy have been locked in a standoff over raising the debt ceiling since January. The president has called on Congress to pass a hike to the government’s borrowing limit without conditions.

McCarthy made it clear that he wouldn’t consider increasing the debt ceiling unless the president agreed to limit future spending.

“No clean debt ceiling is going to pass the House,” McCarthy said on April 26. “We can’t do that to our children.”

House Republicans passed their own solution to the debt crisis on April 26. The bill—the Limit, Save, Grow Act—would lift the federal borrowing cap by $1.5 trillion while enacting sweeping spending cuts, which Democrats have rejected.

Schumer began navigating to advance a clean, two-year extension of the debt limit in the Senate last week. He told reporters that Democrats would decide whether to put the extension up for a vote after the upcoming White House meeting.

Schumer, McConnell, and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) have also been invited to the debt limit meeting at the White House on May 9.

Read more here…

Canada’s top oil-producing province, Alberta, declared a state of emergency on Saturday as more than 100 wildfires raged across the region. 

On Monday, there were 100 wildfires, 29 of which were classified as out of control. Evacuation orders have been posted for 30,000 residents in the province. 

Bloomberg said numerous companies shut down 234,000 barrels a day of oil and gas production. 

The fires are striking Canada’s main natural gas production region, including the prolific Montney and Duvernay formations, an area studded with wells and processing plants and criscrossed by pipelines. The region also is a major center for light oil production, and the disruptions have sent prices for some local grades of crude surging.

Edmonton Mixed Sweet’s discount to West Texas Intermediate narrowed by more than a third to $2.50 a barrel, the smallest discount since March, and Syncrude Sweet’s premium grew to $3.50 a barrel, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Condensate’s discount narrowed to $3.20 a barrel.

One community under evacuation order as of Sunday was Fox Creek, a major center for light oil and gas drillers. Energy facilities and local residents were also being evacuated in Grande Prairie, provincial officials said. -Bloomberg

NatGas for spot delivery at the Alberta Energy Co.’s hub jumped 34% to the equivalent of $2 per million British thermal units due to disruptions. 

The list (courtesy of Bloomberg) is the following energy companies whose operations have been impacted by out-of-control fires. 

• Crescent Point Energy Corp. has shut in 45,000 barrels a day of production in the Kaybob Duvernay region, though the company said it has seen no damage to its assets.
• Vermilion Energy Inc. temporarily shut 30,000 barrels a day of production, but added in a statement that initial assessments indicate minimal damage to key infrastructure.
• Pipestone Energy Corp. has shut in around 20,000 barrels a day of production, the company said in a statement.
• Tourmaline Oil Corp. has closed down nine South and West Deep Basin gas processing facilities as nearby fires expanded and new wildfires rapidly emerged.
• Paramount Resources Ltd. has shut the equivalent of about 50,000 barrels a day of oil production as of May 5 as a precaution and because of disruptions to third-party infrastructure, the company said Sunday. Its operations in the Grande Prairie and Kaybob regions are being affected.
• TC Energy Corp. halted two compressor stations on its Nova Gas system nearest to active wildfires, the company said in an email Sunday. Other sections of the system and other networks continue to operate safely. The company is keeping workers away from facilities near active blazes unless necessary.
• Tidewater Midstream & Infrastructure Ltd. shut its Brazeau River Complex, a gas processing facility, west of Edmonton and evacuated all personnel, the company said in an email.
• Cenovus Energy Inc. has shut down some production and halted plants in some areas, a company spokesperson said.
• Kiwetinohk Energy Corp. shut in the majority of its Placid operations in response to third-party service interruptions.
• The government-owned Trans Mountain Pipeline, the sole link carrying Canadian crude to the Pacific coast, is still in operation but the company has deployed mitigation measures, including a perimeter sprinkler system at its Edson pump station, and is ready to deploy additional protection measures if needed, the company said.
• Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd. had to shut in less than 300 barrels a day of production after the gas processing plants operated by Tidewater and another run by Keyera Corp. went out of operation due to the blazes, Chief Executive Officer Brian Schmidt said by phone.
• Pembina Pipeline Corp. also said it evacuated some workers west of Edmonton.

Here are scenes from the ground.

🇨🇦 Fire in Edson, Alberta, Canada

-25,000 people were evacuated from their homes due to the big fires#canada #canada🇨🇦 #alberta #fire #crisis #emergency #AlbertaWildfires pic.twitter.com/MpWC7pBc1Y

— F.M NEWS (@fmnews__) May 8, 2023

#BREAKING_NEWS
Bushfire fires force some 30 thousand people to evacuate their homes in Canada’s Alberta province, and shut down some nose companies. pic.twitter.com/JjXFf9HVkg

— Poli Pulse (@POLI_PULSE) May 8, 2023

Terrifying evolution of the more than 110 current #Wildfires in my home province of #Alberta. A state of emergency has been declared, thousands evacuated. It’s only May.

How many more historics before we #ActOnClimate #climate #energy #staysafe #renewables via @or_bit_eye pic.twitter.com/MAEaoGz8Fn

— Mike Hudema (@MikeHudema) May 7, 2023

Thousands of people have evacuated from areas in northwest Alberta as wildfires burn through around 400,000 hectares of land. Alberta Wildfire said the scale of the blazes is being called “unprecedented” with so much burning so early in the fire season. pic.twitter.com/6AJMaw5GDV

— The Globe and Mail (@globeandmail) May 8, 2023

Alberta’s oil and gas production has been impacted by wildfires before. In 2016, about 1 million barrels a day of output were shut down due to fires in the province’s eastern region. 

Authored by Steve Watson via Summit News,

Once again displaying that he is not afraid to go on the offensive against the Deep State, Presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Junior stated this past weekend that he believes the CIA was “involved in the murder” of his uncle and has presided over a “60-year cover-up”.

During an interview, host Jason Calacanis asked Kennedy “Do you believe they (the CIA) were involved in the murder of your uncle?”

Kennedy instantly responded “They were definitely involved in the murder and the 60-year cover-up,” adding “They’re still not releasing, you know the papers that legally they have to release.”

RFK Jr. also noted that his father Bobby Kennedy’s belief about assassination was that the CIA was responsible, noting that President Kennedy’s brother even called Langley and asked “did your people do this?”

Watch:

.@RobertKennedyJr: CIA ‘Definitely Involved’ in JFK’s Assassination

“They were definitely involved in the murder and the 60-year cover-up,” he declared. “They’re still not releasing the papers that legally they have to release.”

“For anybody who has doubts about that, I would… pic.twitter.com/fY3MeEDfD1

— The Vigilant Fox 🦊 (@VigilantFox) May 6, 2023

Full video below:

During his campaign announcement last month, RFK Jr. spoke about his uncle vowing to “take the CIA and shatter it into a thousand pieces and scatter it into the wind” after the disastrous Bay of Pigs incident.

RFK Jr. emphasised that JFK had concluded before he was assassinated that “the function of the intelligence agencies had become to provide the military industrial complex with a constant pipeline of war.”

Kennedy Jr. promised to “let loose” on those who have attempted to silence him for 18 years, asserting “This is what happens when you censor somebody for 18 years. I’ve got a lot to talk about.”

Video: RFK Jr. Tells Deep State “Nice Try” As Fire Alarm Interrupts His Presidential Announcement

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A heat wave in Asia and record-high temperatures in Europe could be an early indication of an emerging El Nino weather pattern about to unleash above-average temperatures across the Northern Hemisphere this summer. 

Bloomberg reported Vietnam recorded 44.2C (or about 111.5F) over the weekend, triggering power shortage warnings. Neighboring country Laos also broke records. The Philippines reduced school hours as the heat index breached the “danger” zone. 

🚨Heatwave alert!🔥 Vietnam records highest-ever temperature of 44.1C due to #ClimateChange. #GlobalWarming
Southeast Asia is experiencing record-breaking #heatwave #Laos hottest 43.5C #Vietnam hottest 44.1C#Thailand hottest day on April 15 (45.4C)https://t.co/iDiOxlqwIL pic.twitter.com/PqivqkMMKO

— Asher Samuel Bhatti (PhD) (I’m Climate Crusader) (@ashersamu) May 8, 2023

The heat wave in Southeast Asia comes as El Nino is likely to supercharge heat across the region. Record temperatures were recorded last month from India to Malaysia. 

Over the last three years, the weather phenomenon La Nina, which typically results in a decrease in global temperatures, has been in effect. However, the reappearance of El Nino is becoming a strong possibility. This might result in crop production disruptions due to heat and drought, further exacerbating the global food crisis. 

“If El Nino disrupts India’s monsoon season, there will be a deficit of rain and, of course, this will hugely impact agriculture and farming, and, as a result, the economy,” Dileep Mavalankar, director of the Gujarat-based Indian Institute of Public Health, Gandhinagar, told the South China Morning Post. 

Besides concerns about freshwater shortages across Asia this summer, scorching temperatures might increase rolling blackouts as power grids are strained over the higher use of air conditioners. 

Meanwhile, Spain and Portugal experienced their hottest April on record due to a mass of hot air, which caused temperatures to rise above 30C (86F) and even approach 40C (104F) in certain regions. Above-average temperatures were also recorded in parts of Africa, around the Caspian Sea, and North America. 

Samantha Burgess, deputy director of the Copernicus Climate Change Service, wrote in a statement last month that “above-average temperatures were observed over the equatorial eastern Pacific, which is an early sign for a potential transition to El Nino conditions often leading to warmer global temperatures.” Around the same time, we pointed out a disruptive El Nino pattern might roil ag commodities markets, like palm oil, sugar, and cocoa, to list just a few. 

Via The Cradle,

Non-oil trade between Iran and members of the BRICS alliance of emergent economies – Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa – reached $38.43 billion in fiscal year 2022-23, according to data released by the Islamic Republic’s Customs Administration. This represents a 14 percent increase from the previous fiscal year.

China remains Iran’s main trade partner in the BRICS alliance, with $30.32 billion in trade, an increase of 37 percent. India comes next with $4.99 billion, a 47 percent hike; Russia follows with $2.32 billion, Brazil with $466.55 million, and South Africa with $322.04 million.

The economic report comes just days after Tehran revealed that trade with African nations increased by 2.24 percent in fiscal year 2022-23, to reach $1.2 billion.

Despite a “maximum pressure” sanctions campaign from the west – and a push from Washington to seize more Iranian oil ships – the Islamic Republic has managed to overcome the unilateral restrictions and bolster industrial capacity.

In recent months, BRICS has also seen a surge of interest from Global South nations looking to ditch the US dollar and the hegemonic western financial system. Iran, alongside five Arab nations, have formally requested to join the alliance. BRICS foreign ministers will hold an annual summit in Cape Town during the first week of June to discuss the membership applications.

“We are getting applications to join every day,” South Africa’s ambassador to the bloc told Bloomberg last month. Bloomberg revealed BRICS is expected to surpass G7 states in economic growth expectations. By 2028, the G7 is expected to make up just 27.8 percent of the global economy, while BRICS will make up 35 percent.

In January, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that BRICS is in talks to create a common currency.

Referring to the US-dominated financial system, Lavrov said that “serious, self-respecting countries are well aware of what is at stake, see the incompetence of the ‘masters’ of the current international monetary and financial system, and want to create their own mechanisms to ensure sustainable development, which will be protected from outside dictates.”

On April 13, Brazil’s President Ignacio Lula da Silva called on the member states of BRICS and countries that seek to become part of it to replace the dollar in foreign trade. “Every night, I ask myself why all countries have to base their trade on the dollar,” he said, adding the question, “Why can’t we do trade based on our own currencies.”

The reason behind the termination of Toronto-Dominion Bank’s acquisition of First Horizon Corp. last week has finally been revealed. The Wall Street Journal reported that TD could not obtain the necessary approval from US banking regulators due to past concerns regarding its handling of suspicious customer transactions. 

Last Thursday, TD released a statement, calling off the $13.4 billion deal to purchase First Horizon. Shares of the Memphis-based regional bank crashed but clawed back some losses in the last few sessions. 

A person familiar with the bank deal said the termination was due to mounting uncertainty about whether the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and the Federal Reserve would approve it because of TD’s past anti-money-laundering practices. 

Concerns surfaced among federal regulators regarding TD’s handling of unusual transactions in recent years, as well as the speed at which Canada’s second-biggest bank reported those transactions to US authorities, the person said. 

Despite TD’s commitment to improving its anti-money laundering policies, it couldn’t sway regulators’ approval for the completion of the deal, the source continued. 

“TD works diligently to prevent criminals from using the bank for illegal activity, to strengthen its risk management programs on an ongoing basis, and to protect the interests of our customers, the bank, and the financial system,” a spokeswoman said in an emailed statement. 

TD’s anti-money-laundering procedure problem is yet another issue for the lender. It paid $1.2 billion earlier this year to settle a lawsuit accusing it of aiding disgraced financier Allen Stanford’s Ponzi scheme more than a decade ago. Stanford was convicted in 2012 and was sentenced to 110 years in prison. 

Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

Now that the overlapping crises are upon us and the banquet of consequences is being served, we’ll see just who our elites and leadership really are.

The erosion of trust doesn’t require intent, it only requires the blind pursuit of self-interest above all else. Trust is fundamentally reciprocity and honesty: to build trust, we must each perform our agreed-upon responsibilities and be truthful about our performance and actions.

Lies, obfuscation, misdirection and the sins of omission are all Kryptonite to trust. Those who put the pursuit of self-interest above all else like to think they can finesse their greed by omitting the truth rather than presenting a fabrication / lie. But being social animals whose survival ultimately rests on trust, humans are keenly sensitive to the difference between the truth / honesty and self-serving prevarications such as the sins of omission.

America’s elites and those living large in protected fiefdoms have persuaded themselves that their relentless pursuit of self-interest has no cost or consequence. Conveniently ignoring Adam Smith’s volume on the moral foundations needed to support capitalism, they think “the invisible hand” of the market is nothing more than a feeding frenzy of self-serving greed, and so their relentless pursuit of self-interest will somehow magically transform their looting and free-riding into a stable economy and society.

This is why trust has been lost in America. Everyone with any hold on power uses that power solely to benefit themselves and their cronies, under the tissue-thin guise of “serving the public” (or even more egregiously, “doing God’s work”–please hand me a barf-bag…).

When everyone is issuing an endless spew of BS to cover their own self-enrichment, trust is eroded and then lost. When everyone with any shred of power is scrambling to free-ride the system to serve their private interests above all else, the system itself can no longer be trusted.

This is why institutions have lost public trust. Those happily ensconced in a politically powerful fiefdom can increase their private gains at the expense of the public interest without any worries that the public can ever make it through the complexity thickets they’ve erected to ring-fence their fiefdom.

The elites rig the system behind flimsy legal screens and declare the system one of “endless opportunity” without mentioning some are more equal than others. Markets are rigged, politics is theater and those in the know gloat as their personal fortunes expand like clockwork.

All of this is betrayal of the public trust and the public interest, and betrayal has a cost and consequence: trust is lost. Betrayal hurts because we believed the pretenses and promises of the lying, cheating prevaricator. Once the truth seeps out, we’re done with the liar / free-rider / self-serving BSer.

This is where we are: trust has been lost and there’s no going back. As the first chart above illustrates, social trust–our willingness to trust strangers–has declined for decades. There are many threads in this decline, but one is that everyone has transmogrified into a scammer or grifter, trying to extract something from us while giving us nothing in return except empty promises, phony gratitude or the pretense of reciprocity.

What exactly is the difference between the beggar with a phony story, a politician “explaining” a new junk fee or a private-sector elite rigging the system to benefit their enterprise? There is no difference. All are masking their pursuit of self-interest behind a phony story. The beggar’s story of needing $10 for gas is obviously threadbare; so too are the stories of pickpocketing “leaders” and SillyCon Valley monopolists.

As the chart below shows, the middle class that once trusted markets, institutions and civic leaders has seen its share of the national wealth decline as the top 1%’s share increased. Wealth wasn’t “grown,” it was transferred. Eventually “investors” finally accept they’re nothing but marks for the financial elite to skim and scam and so they exit the fake 3-card-monte “market.” The skimmers and scammers, bereft of marks, whine and beg for a return to the good old days when they could exploit all the trusting marks.

Those who have looted the public trust for their own private gain now decry the loss of trust. Their tears are as fake as all their other stories. What they mourn is the marks awakening to their endless skims and scams, and the opting out of those who’ve finally had enough.

Everything’s gone so well that those with wealth and power have been able to pretend to be fantastic. But now that the overlapping crises are upon us and the banquet of consequences is being served, we’ll see just who our elites and leadership really are.

Pretending will no longer work, and all the self-serving prevarications in the world will no longer shield us from the consequences of a society stripped of public trust.

Once trust has been destroyed, there’s no going back.

*  *  *

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The day started off optimistically with regional bank stocks rising for literally no good reason. Then wholesale sales/inventory data poured cold water on any hopes of a soft landing as the ratio hit its highest since the Great Financial Crisis (ex COVID lockdowns)…

Source: Bloomberg

So much for the consumer.

Then Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee cited his ‘vibes’:

“I am certainly getting vibes – as you are – in the market and in the business contacts that the credit crunch, or at least a credit squeeze, is beginning,”

“We know that credit conditions, like the ones we’re seeing now, in the past have been correlated with recessions, credit crunches — kind of done the tightening work of monetary policy.”

Of course the machines lifted stocks with the S&P back to green just in time for SLOOS to hit and crash everything as credit trends collapsed. But that was quickly BTFD’d as tighter credit means less need for Fed which means ‘buy all the things’ even if all the things are going to get battered by the recession that SLOOS is signaling.

By the close, only Nasdaq  had held its gains with the S&P unch, The Dow down and Small Caps the worst performer…

The early gains seen in Regional Banks – proclaimed by many talking heads this morning as a sign of the end of the crisis – turned red very quick and ended red on the day…

PACW was up over 30% in the pre-market, but gave it all back as investors realized that issuing a statement suspending the dividend at 10pm on a Friday night is not a buying opportunity!!

Oh, and if you hear more about short-selling bans on banks, here is what The Fed (yes The Fed) said about its effectiveness in 2008:

The 2008 ban on short sales failed to slow the decline in the price of financial stocks;

…in fact, prices fell markedly over the two weeks in which the ban was in effect and stabilized once it was lifted

“Most Shorted” stocks gapped down at the cash open but were squeezed back to unchanged ahead of the SLOOS data… dumped.. and then were squeezed again…

Source: Bloomberg

The long-bond saw a modest bid in Asia but once Europe got going Treasury selling surged. The US open saw bonds bid but yields started rising again around 1300ET and spiked more after SLOOS…

Source: Bloomberg

2Y yields pushed back above 4.00% but stalled there…

Source: Bloomberg

This is weird too… with The Fed signaling its done, specs pushed their record short Treasury bond futures positions even more shorter-erer….

Source: Bloomberg

Bloomberg notes that the persistence of leveraged fund bearish bets suggests the possibility that at least some of the positions are a result of the revival of the so-called basis trades.

That’s when investors buy cash Treasuries and short the underlying futures in an attempt to profit from any difference in pricing.

The market is adjusting (hawkishly) to The Fed’s ‘higher for longer’ jawboning…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar ended modestly higher on the day after being sold in Asia and bid in Europe…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin tumbled back below $27,500 – back to the fake Mt.GIX dump spike lows – after reports that Binance halted BTC withdrawals as the network got congested thanks to Ordinals volumes…

Source: Bloomberg

Oil prices were higher once again, extending gains off last week’s flash crash lows with WTI back above $73…

Gold closed higher on the day with Spot back above $2020 (after bouncing off $2000 on Friday)…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, Apple hit a new record high relative to the S&P equal weight technology ETF today…

Source: Bloomberg

‘Safe Haven’? Probably nothing to worry about right?

Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Summit News,

Tucker Carlson is preparing to go to “war” against Fox News as the network refuses to release him from his contract, preventing him from working for other networks until January 2025.

Fox News announced it was parting ways with Carlson last month, although speculation is still raging as to the exact reason.

Carlson has not technically been fired since he has still not been released from his $20 million per year deal, which forbids him from working elsewhere in the industry for another 20 months.

That means the popular host would be completely frozen out of being able to actively cover the 2024 presidential election.

“His team is preparing for war. He wants his freedom,” a close friend told Axios, adding that Carlson had previously said he wanted to “get this done quiet and clean” but his team was now “going from peacetime to Defcon 1.”

Several behind the scenes videos of Carlson have already been leaked to left-wing media outlets, although Fox News has denied they are responsible.

Another inside source told the media outlet that the conservative commentator “knows where a lot of bodies are buried, and is ready to start drawing a map.”

Both Newsmax and Rumble have reportedly offered Carlson more than he was being paid at Fox, while Carlson has also reportedly been in talks with Twitter owner Elon Musk about starting a new project.

“The idea that anyone is going to silence Tucker and prevent him from speaking to his audience is beyond preposterous,” Carlson’s lawyer Byran Freedman told Axios.

Fox News has lost almost half its viewership in the slot that Carlson previously occupied and audience figures for the network’s other shows have also suffered big hits, especially in the coveted 25-54 age demographic.

As we previously highlighted, members of the US military-industrial complex celebrated Carlson’s depature, with one declaring “good riddance!”

*  *  *

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