Authored by Andrew Korybko,

The sequence that Trump threatened if no deal was reached before the expiry of his deadline would have cut China off from half of the oil that it imported by sea last year and likely set Afro-Eurasia aflame in resource wars for the indefinite future that would have derailed China’s superpower rise.

Three unnamed Iranian officials reportedly told the New York Times (NYT) that China pressed their country to compromise with the US by agreeing to a two-week ceasefire and resuming talks.

When asked about whether China played such a role, Trump responded that, “I hear yes. Yes they were.”

This was followed by Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning revealing that “China made its own efforts in this regard.”

Although she didn’t directly confirm the report, she didn’t outright deny it either.

Interestingly, Drop Site founder Ryan Grim noticed that the edit history of Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s tweet imploring Trump to extend his deadline for destroying Iran’s civilization if a deal isn’t reached saw him originally post “*Draft – Pakistan’s PM Message on X*”. Grim wrote that “Sharif’s own staff don’t call him ‘Pakistan’s PM,’ they would just call him prime minister. The U.S. and Israel, of course, would call him ‘Pakistan’s PM.’” Trump cited his talks with Sharif when extending his deadline.

In light of the NYT’s report, Trump’s positive affirmation thereof, and Mao’s related innuendo, an alternative hypothesis is that it wasn’t the US or Israel that drafted Sharif’s tweet, but China. Regardless of whoever did, it’s reasonable that China might have indeed pressed Iran to compromise with the US, not least because it would have tremendously suffered had Trump carried through on his threat. As a reminder, he threatened to destroy Iran’s power plants, bridges, and possibly even oil infrastructure too.

In response, Iran threatened to destroy the Gulf’s, and the sequence that Trump could have catalyzed would have resulted in the region’s energy exports going offline indefinitely. China would have then suddenly lost the 48.4% of oil that it imported by sea last year, 13.4% of which came from Iran and 35% from the Gulf Kingdoms (excluding Oman whose exports are from the Arabian Sea). Although it has strategic reserves and is producing more alternative energy, that would still its economy very, very hard.

China’s superpower rise would end, while resources wars would break out all across Afro-Eurasia except in resource-rich Russia, thus destabilizing the Eastern Hemisphere for years to come as the US relatively insulates itself in “Fortress America” and divides-and-rules the other side of the world. Naturally, China would prefer to avert that dark scenario even if the lesser evil results in the end of Iran’s petroyuan experiment and perhaps also its oil exports to China. Continued Gulf exports are much more important.

It’s unrealistic to imagine that China promised to intervene in Iran’s support if the US dupes it with talks for a third time in less than a year when it won’t risk World War III over Taiwan nor in furtherance of its “no-limits” Russian strategic partner’s goals in Ukraine.

Observers can therefore only speculate what China credibly offered Iran in exchange for compromising with the US by agreeing to a two-week ceasefire and resuming talks, but at the least, generous reconstruction support was probably included.

To recap, China’s interest in pressing Iran to cut a deal with the US would have stemmed from fears of the sequence that Trump threatened setting Afro-Eurasia aflame for the indefinite future, though there has yet to be any unambiguous confirmation from its side that it played such role and might never be.

Nevertheless, it’s clear that something happened close to the expiry of Trump’s deadline for the IRGC to agree to a ceasefire with the US instead of embrace martyrdom, and it’s likely connected to China.

Summary: 

• Vice President Vance (who’s been tapped to lead talks) warns Iranians: Trump “has all the cards” and cannot have a nuclear weapon. Follows Pentagon/WH declaring “total victory”. Iran says it has upper-hand.

• US, Iran agree to meet for first direct talks in Islamabad. Situation fragile given that Iran is threatening to hit Israel again over IDF’s massive Lebanon airstrikes. Tehran says 3 clauses already violated.

• Iran meanwhile demands stiff fees for ships passing through Hormuz during the ceasefire, and says it holds the final authority on which vessels get to pass. Tehran leaders have asserted ‘victory’ for Iran, amid positive international reaction to the ceasefire.

• The first two ships since the ceasefire was announced have crossed the Strait of Hormuz after Iran said it will demand that shipping companies pay tolls in cryptocurrency. Hours later, Fars announces a halt to ships’ passage. This as IDF pummels Lebanon.

• Saudi Arabia’s vital East-West oil pipeline carrying crude from the Gulf to the Red Sea for export has been attacked at a pumping station, oil rises on the news. There’s been sporadic attacks on other Gulf states too. Kuwait sees key energy, water sites hit.

*  *  * Load up, the Spring Sale ends Friday

Vance Could Run Point in Pakistan Talks, Issues Warning to Tehran Side

President Trump earlier in the day floated the possibility that it could be Vice President JD Vance heading up negotiations with the Iranians in Islamabad. Axios is now reporting that he’s been tapped. Vance this afternoon, speaking to Fox News, asserted that President Trump “has all the cards” in negotiations and that Tehran must recognize the US position.

Vance outlined Washington’s apparent core objective, saying, “We want Iran to not be able to make a nuclear weapon. We want the nuclear fuel, which is something the president has made very clear.”

“And again, the way to think about this is the United States has certain demands and certain things that we want. The Iranians have things they can get out of the negotiation. The more that they’re willing to give us, I think the more they’re going to get things out of this negotiation. The president’s talked about sanctions relief.”

However, he added that economic incentives remain conditional, saying, “The president’s talked about economic partnerships and things like that. That’s not going to happen unless the Iranians make a firm commitment to stop anything close to the development of a nuclear weapon.”

Vance concluded by emphasizing US leverage, stating, “And frankly, the president has all the cards here. We’ve got a lot of leverage. We’ve got a lot of things that we can do, but right now, I think we’re in a good spot.”

🚨 JUST IN: JD Vance says President Trump has ALL the cards, and Iran better understand it

“We want Iran to not be able to make a nuclear weapon. We want the nuclear fuel, which is something the president has made very clear.”

“And again, the way to think about this is the… pic.twitter.com/EBIEBvT8YD

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) April 8, 2026

Meanwhile, unexpected…

Iranian President Pezeshkian called on Europe to play an “effective” role in supporting lasting stability and security in the region.

Ghalibaf: US Already in Violation of Ceasefire Deal

Iran has expressed its ‘agreement’ with Trump on the proposed 10-point ceasefire plan being workable, but has at the same time issued official statement, via Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf, complaining that three key clauses have already been violated. They center on:

• Israel’s ongoing attacks on Lebanon
• Ongoing US-Israeli violation of Iranian airspace
• Iran’s ‘right’ to enrich uranium

pic.twitter.com/mA8wlzc0zJ

— محمدباقر قالیباف | MB Ghalibaf (@mb_ghalibaf) April 8, 2026

‘Ball is in US court’… says Iran FM:

The Iran–U.S. Ceasefire terms are clear and explicit: the U.S. must choose—ceasefire or continued war via Israel. It cannot have both.

The world sees the massacres in Lebanon. The ball is in the U.S. court, and the world is watching whether it will act on its commitments. pic.twitter.com/2bzVlHFKgi

— Seyed Abbas Araghchi (@araghchi) April 8, 2026

WH: ‘Total Victory’ Achieved in Iran

Leavitt declared ‘total’ US victory in Iran in the Wednesday afternoon briefing. She was repeatedly pressed on Trump’s prior threats to destroy a whole ‘civilization’. She said: “With respect to the Iranian people, the president has taken out the imminent threat that was posed by their military to the United States, to our allies in the region, to our forces in the region, and of course as the president has long said, he hopes that Iran will be a country of peace and prosperity and we’re moving into this next round of negotiations to hopefully come to an agreement with this new regime that will create long term stability to the Middle East.”

Will hold Iran to keeping the strait open. More from Leavitt: “The president was very clear … in his language last night … he said that this ceasefire is subject to the free, safe and immediate reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.” She added: this means “without limitation, including tolls.”

She goes after media coverage: “So let me be clear and correct the record,” Leavitt said. “The Iranians originally put forward a 10-point plan that was fundamentally unserious, unacceptable and completely discarded. It was literally thrown in the garbage by President Trump and his negotiating team,” Leavitt said. “Many outlets in this room have falsely reported on that plan as being acceptable to the United States. And that is false.” She then emphasized negotiations will take place behind closed doors.

Trump Highlights Differing Versions of 10-point Ceasefire Plan

Throws more uncertainty and confusion in the mix with this latest…

This is alarming and surreal, and doesn’t bode well for what’s already a very shaky ceasefire holding, via the NY Times:

A White House official says that the 10-point peace plan that Iran publicly released on Wednesday differs from the plan that Trump said was a “workable basis on which to negotiate.” The official declined to elaborate on the differences but said Karoline Leavitt, the White House press secretary, was expected to clarify at a 1 p.m. briefing.

There’s talk of Kushner, Witkoff, and maybe Vance going to Pakistan for planned Friday meeting with Iranian side.

Key Energy Sites Hit in Kuwait, Despite Ceasefire

Kuwait’s ⁠Interior Ministry is condemning fresh Iran attacks, reporting “severe material damage” at ⁠several vital facilities of the ⁠Kuwait Petroleum Corporation. Also water desalination plants have been hit.

“The ministry said fire broke out at some of the attacked sites, which include oil facilities, three power stations and water desalination plants,” Al Jazeera reports.

Oil Transit through Hormuz Halted Again: FARS

Iran’s Fars News agency reports that oil tankers passing through Hormuz have been stopped after Israel’s “ceasefire breach.” This as Iranian officials are warning of resumed missile launches on Israel for what’s happening in Lebanon (see below).

There’s currently contradiction and confusion over whether the Pakistan-mediated Iran ceasefire deal extends to Lebanon. Pakistan says yes, Iran says yes, while the US and Israel say no. Tehran appears willing to apply its leverage. Oil jumps on initial ‘breach’ rumblings…

Hellish scenes out of Berit on Wednesday:

Chaos in Beirut as Israel carries out a wave of airstrikes across the country hitting what it said were more than 100 targets in ten minutes. pic.twitter.com/t0If72xogY

— Will Christou (@will_christou) April 8, 2026

Israel in Massive Surprise Attack on Lebanon; Iran Warns Could Resume Missiles on Israel

A surprise Israeli attack on Beirut, southern Lebanon, and the eastern Bekaa Valley has resulted in huge destruction and many casualties. President Trump has said the Lebanon conflict is not part of the Iran ceasefire deal, contradicting statements out of Pakistan. But Trump said that will be taken care of separately, and appeared to defend Israel’s ability to go after Hezbollah.

Iranian officials are signaling they could be ready to resume ballistic missile attacks on Israel once again, as a response to the strikes on Lebanon.

Meanwhile a statement from the UAE: “The blatant Iranian attacks since the ceasefire took effect have reached 17 ballistic missiles and 35 drones, and the air defenses have successfully dealt with them,” the UAE’s ministry of defence said in a social media post. Kuwait has said the same.

US, Iranian Delegates Agree to Meet in Islamabad Friday

Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has announced that American and Iranian delegates have accepted an invitation to meet in Islamabad on Friday.

He said of a talk with the Iranian president, “I expressed my deep appreciation for the wisdom and foresight of Iran’s leadership in accepting Pakistan’s proposal to host peace talks in Islamabad later this week, aimed at our joint efforts to restore calm to the region. President Pezeshkian also affirmed Iran’s participation in the upcoming negotiations, expressed gratitude for Pakistan’s efforts, and extended his best wishes to the people of Pakistan.”

IRGC Parliament Official: ‘Maritime Traffic in the Strait of Hormuz Must be Halted’

Reuters has picked up on the words of IRGC officer and member of Iranian parliament’s “Expediency Discernment Council” Mohsen Rezaee: “In response to the brutal aggression against Lebanon, maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz must be halted immediately and a strong, decisive strike must be delivered against the entity.”

This perhaps represents a hardline faction approach, given clearly Tehran has held significant leverage and maintains de facto control of the Hormuz Strait. However, it does not yet appear the official government position, given also the first two vessels have passed through the waterway since the ceasefire was announced.

As we reported earlier Wednesday, The Liberia-flagged Daytona Beach, destined for the United Arab Emirates, crossed just before 8am UK time, while the Greek-owned NJ Earth followed about two hours later, with its destination undisclosed, the tracking platform Kpler showed.

Saudi Aramco Export Pipeline To Red Sea Struck

A huge, and not very ‘ceasefirey’ development in Saudi Arabia, per the FT (just as Hegseth was speaking): “A pumping station was hit at 1 p.m. local time, the people told FT. The attack was carried out by a drone and damage was being assessed, one of the people told FT Saudi Aramco, which owns and operates the pipeline.” FT continues, “The people said a pumping station, one of several along the 1,200km pipeline that has become an economic lifeline for the kingdom since the near closure of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, was hit at about 1pm local time on Wednesday.”

One Gulf based representative and analyst complains, “For a ceasefire, the fire does not seem to be ceasing. The UAE and Kuwait are under attack, and Iran says it is under attack too. Beyond the ceasefire itself, the bigger question is that the plan still looks unclear when it comes to what follows…”

The development pushed oil slightly up…

Pentagon Tries to put a Bow on Operation Epic Fury: ‘Overwhelming Victory’

Hegseth in his Pentagon press briefing called the ceasefire an “overwhelming victory” for the United States and stated the military “stands ready” to ensure Iran complies with the agreement. He said US forces will still be “hanging around” the region, and further that Iran’s nuclear “dust” is being monitored, buried under the rubble, and that eventually the US will either take the enriched uranium or else it will be handed over. “Iran begged for ceasefire,” Hegseth declared.

“We stand ready in the background to ensure Iran upholds every reasonable term,” Hegseth said. Also Joint Chiefs chairman Gen. Caine stated that all US objectives in Iran have been achieved.

He hailed that US has destroyed Iran’s defense-industrial base, including over 80% of missile facilities gone, and its navy lies at the “bottom of the Arabian Sea”. It’s clear that after six weeks the Pentagon is trying to put a bow on Operation Epic Fury.

During the Q&A, there was a question – largely dodged by Hegseth – centered on wither the US has achieved “strategic” victory vs. merely tactical victory. That ultimately is the question.

Also, is there really ceasefire on the ground? But this is merely day one:

For a ceasefire, the fire does not seem to be ceasing. The UAE and Kuwait are under attack, and Iran says it is under attack too. Beyond the ceasefire itself, the bigger question is that the plan still looks unclear when it comes to what follows, assuming the ceasefire actually…

— Nawaf Al-Thani نواف بن مبارك آل ثاني (@NawafAlThani) April 8, 2026

But Iran also sees this as Victory

The United States and Iran have announced a two-week suspension of all attacks, and Tehran reportedly agreed to allow safe transit of vessels through the Strait of Hormuz. It all started with President Trump seizing on the last-minute olive branch plan offered by Pakistan’s prime minister, which urged a two week extension of the US deadline before massive obliteration bombings began, and in return Iran would agree to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran has essentially declared victory and stated that upcoming talks in Islamabad, Pakistan, on Friday do not guarantee an end to the war. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has given supportive lip service to the US decision but stated that Lebanon is excluded from the two-week ceasefire.

Iran warns of decisive response to any ‘miscalculations’ by US. The IRGC said in a statement: “While we remain open to talks, we trust no promises from our adversaries. Our forces are poised, prepared by decades of experience in confrontations with American and Zionist forces, ready to respond decisively to any miscalculations by the enemy.”

Latest from Trump on Truth Social:

Oil prices dropped rapidly after Trump announced the pause, with Brent crude trading just below $95 per barrel. Qatar’s Cabinet welcomed the US-Iran ceasefire brokered by Pakistan, stating it emphasizes “the necessity of immediately halting all hostile actions and practices that undermine regional stability, respect for state sovereignty, and the assurance of security for maritime passages, freedom of navigation, and international trade.”

Iran meanwhile is demanding stiff fees for ships passing through Hormuz during the ceasefire, and says it holds the final authority on which vessels get to pass. So now, in essense… stability in global energy flows depends on accommodating Iran AND it will likely get sanctions relief, per the deal on the table.

Iranian state media has featured celebratory scenes in the streets:

🇮🇷🇺🇸 Breaking | Iranian television:

Trump agreed to Iran’s conditions to end the war.

Iran has officially won. pic.twitter.com/qjnt9lnTOO

— Global Insight Journal (@GlobalIJournal) April 7, 2026

Ceasefire Hailed Internationally

Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said on X that he held a “warm, substantive” conversation with Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian. “I conveyed my deep appreciation for the wisdom and sagacity of the Iranian leadership in accepting Pakistan’s offer to host peace talks in Islamabad later this week to work jointly for the return of peace to the region,” he said.

“President Pezeshkian reaffirmed Iran’s participation in the upcoming negotiations and expressed appreciation for Pakistan’s efforts, while conveying his best wishes for the people of Pakistan,” he added.

Lebanon’s President Joseph Aoun welcomed the ceasefire, while Israel has instead asserted that Lebanon remains outside the agreement and continued strikes on the country.

To quote armchair war hawk Michael Weiss, A month ago Trump demanded Iran’s “unconditional surrender.” Now the U.S. claims these are a feasible starting point for negotiations…

Pope Leo XIV praised the agreement as a “sign of real hope,” stating, “I welcome with satisfaction, and as a sign of real hope, the announcement of an immediate two-week truce. Only by returning to negotiations can we reach the end of the war,” during his weekly audience at the Vatican.

The International Atomic Energy Agency welcomed the ceasefire and signaled readiness to support a diplomatic resolution. Director General Rafael Grossi stated, “IAEA DG Grossi welcomes … a return to diplomacy aimed at negotiating a settlement on key issues including Iran’s nuclear program.” It added: “The IAEA stands ready to support these efforts through its indispensable safeguards and verification role.”

Attacks Continue? Hormuz Status

However, attacks on Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, and Kuwait continued on Wednesday, hours after the ceasefire announcement. Also, there’s as yet been no significant change in navigation traffic in the Strait of Hormuz today, per Bloomberg satellite data.

A global shipping industry group representing 130 companies and around 1,500 vessels stated that conditions in the Gulf remain unstable. CEO Knut Arild Hareide said, “We note the signals of a ceasefire, but the situation in the Strait of Hormuz remains unresolved and unpredictable.”

Airstrikes have reportedly targeted the Lavan oil refinery in Iran today. The ceasefire is seemingly in effect in name only. pic.twitter.com/PdH9CrjS6T

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) April 8, 2026

“It is not yet clear under what conditions safe transit can be carried out. Shipowners are assessing the situation and will not resume transits until there is real security for safe passage,” Hareide added.

Will it hold?

Ceasefire day 1:

Israel took multiple waves of Iranian missile fire after the ceasefire was announced.

Kuwait reports that more than two dozens drones were launched by Iran since 8am.

UAE is currently under an Iranian missile attack.

Iran, via state media, reports strikes…

— Trey Yingst (@TreyYingst) April 8, 2026

Earlier, Denmark’s Maersk shipping company stated that the ceasefire announcement does not provide sufficient certainty to resume normal operations in the region.

More Geopolitical Headlines

via Newsquawk…

• US President Donald Trump announced a two-week suspension of bombing in Iran, conditional on Iran reopening the Strait of Hormuz, describing it as a double-sided ceasefire and stating US military objectives have been met while a long-term peace agreement is close to completion.
• Trump said the US received a 10-point proposal from Iran that serves as a workable basis for negotiations, with most major points of contention already agreed and the two-week period intended to finalize the deal.
• Trump posted: “A big day for World Peace! Iran wants it to happen, they’ve had enough! Likewise, so has everyone else! The United States of America will be helping with the traffic buildup in the Strait of Hormuz. There will be lots of positive action! Big money will be made. Iran can start the reconstruction process…this could be the Golden Age of the Middle East!!!”
• Trump told AFP the Iran deal is complete and a comprehensive US victory, stating Iran’s uranium “will be perfectly taken care of” and that China played a role in bringing Iran to negotiations.
• Iranian outlet SNN reported possible ceasefire violations, citing explosions on Siri and Lavan islands, while Iran’s National Security Council warned that if attacks continue in southern Lebanon, it will strike Tel Aviv within hours.
• Iran confirmed negotiations with the US will take place in Islamabad starting April 10, aiming to formalize battlefield gains politically within 15 days, with talks extendable by mutual agreement.
• Iranian officials stated talks with the US do not signify the end of the war, while confirming safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz for two weeks and that operations will halt if attacks on Iran stop.
• Pakistan’s leadership invited US and Iranian delegations to Islamabad, with reports indicating US envoys and Vice President JD Vance are expected to attend.
• A US official said the ceasefire will begin this evening, though delays are expected in relaying orders to IRGC field units.
• Iran and Oman are expected to charge transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz under the ceasefire arrangement.
• Israeli outlet Ynet reported security sources stating the ceasefire will include Lebanon.
• Iran’s Supreme Leader instructed negotiators to pursue a truce, according to Axios.
• Iran’s UN ambassador stated Iran “categorically rejects any temporary ceasefire” and said any resolution must ensure a definitive end to aggression and establish lasting peace.
• The US will demand removal of nuclear materials from Iran, according to Israeli officials cited by Al Hadath via Haaretz.
• A White House official stated the ceasefire takes effect once the Strait of Hormuz is reopened.
• A senior White House official said Israel is included in the two-week ceasefire and has agreed to suspend bombing during negotiations.
• Oman’s transport minister stated no transit fees can be imposed in the Strait of Hormuz under existing agreements.
• Iraq’s Islamic Resistance announced a two-week suspension of operations.
• Hezbollah is preparing to announce its formal position on the ceasefire and respond to claims that Lebanon is excluded.
• A new wave of Iranian missiles was launched toward Israel.
• An Israeli military official stated Israel continues to conduct strikes inside Iran.
• Explosions were reported on Iran’s Sirri Island, with the source unidentified.
• Explosions were also reported at the Lavan oil refinery in Iran, with the cause unknown.
• Bahrain issued a missile alert hours after the US-Iran ceasefire announcement.
• Reports indicated an explosion in Kermanshah in northwestern Iran.
• The IDF confirmed detection of missiles launched from Iran toward Israel.
• Iran’s Supreme Security Council stated forces remain ready to respond immediately and with full force to any escalation.
• Maritime data showed traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains light and limited.

* * *

Authored by Amin Haqshanas via CoinTelegraph.com,

A White House report found that banning yield on stablecoins would have a marginal impact on bank lending while creating clear economic downsides.

According to the Council of Economic Advisers, a three-member agency within the Executive Office of the President tasked to offer the president economic advice, moving funds from stablecoins back into bank deposits would not translate into significant new lending. Under its baseline scenario, total bank lending would increase by about $2.1 billion, roughly 0.02% of the $12 trillion loan market.

The report, published Wednesday, says that community banks would see even smaller gains. Lending at these institutions would increase by roughly $500 million, or about 0.026%.

The findings come amid an ongoing clash between banks and the crypto industry over stablecoin yields. Banking organizations, including the Independent Community Bankers of America, have warned that stablecoin yields could significantly reduce bank lending, while crypto groups have rejected the claim.

Stablecoin lending ban could cost $800 million per year

However, banning stablecoin rewards could carry a greater cost. The report estimates a net welfare loss of around $800 million per year, mainly because users would lose access to yield on stablecoins. The cost-benefit ratio is about 6.6, meaning the economic costs would far exceed any gains in lending.

“Producing lending effects in the hundreds of billions requires simultaneously assuming the stablecoin share sextuples, all reserves shift into segregated deposits, and the Federal Reserve abandons its ample-reserves framework,” the report concludes.

Portfolio effects of the yield ban. Source: White House

In July 2025, President Donald Trump signed the GENIUS Act into law. The law prohibits stablecoin issuers from paying interest or yield to holders, but third-party platforms (like exchanges) can still offer yield on stablecoins. The proposed Digital Asset Market Clarity Act could close that gap by clarifying whether yield should be restricted across the board or allowed under certain conditions.

CLARITY Act nearing Senate markup hearing

The US House of Representatives passed the CLARITY Act on July 17, 2025. In January, Senate Banking Committee Chair Tim Scott delayed a planned markup, which has yet to be rescheduled.

Last week, Coinbase chief legal officer Paul Grewal said the CLARITY Act could be nearing a markup hearing in the US Senate Banking Committee, with lawmakers close to agreement on key provisions. He noted that progress hinges on resolving disagreements over stablecoin yield.

By Noi Mahoney of FreightWaves,

A nationwide strike by Mexican truckers and farmers blocked major highways and freight corridors across Mexico on Monday, disrupting access to Mexico City, industrial zones and several U.S.-Mexico border crossings.

The protest, organized by the National Association of Transporters (ANTAC) and the National Front for the Rescue of the Mexican Countryside (FNRCM), included road blockades in at least 20 states and began around 7 a.m. CST, with disruptions expected to last several hours or longer in some areas.

The groups say the strike is in response to rising cargo crime, high diesel and operating costs, deteriorating road infrastructure and a lack of progress on agreements with the federal government related to highway security and extortion.

Major freight corridors affected

According to Mexican media reports, blockades were reported on several of Mexico’s most important freight routes, including:

• Mexico–Querétaro
• Mexico–Puebla
• Mexico–Pachuca
• Mexico–Cuernavaca
• Federal Highway 45 in the Bajío region
• Culiacán–Mazatlán corridor
• Guadalajara–Colima and Mexico–Guadalajara routes
• Access roads to Mexico City
• Border crossings in Ciudad Juárez, Tijuana and Mexicali

These corridors connect Mexico’s manufacturing hubs, ports and border crossings, making them critical for domestic distribution and cross-border trade.

The strike is affecting access to industrial corridors, customs facilities and toll roads, similar to protests in November 2025 that disrupted more than 40 highways and access to industrial zones and customs facilities.

Security and costs drive protests

Transport and agricultural groups say insecurity remains one of the biggest issues facing freight operators in Mexico.

Official government data shows 6,263 investigations into cargo truck robberies were opened in 2025, but industry groups estimate the true number of cargo theft incidents — including unreported cases — exceeded 16,000, with losses topping 7 billion pesos annually.

Protesters are demanding:

• Increased National Guard presence on highways
• Action against extortion and corruption at checkpoints
• Lower operating costs, including diesel
• Support programs and policy changes for agricultural producers

Farmers joining the strike say insecurity, high fuel costs and agricultural pricing pressures are hurting rural producers and transport operators alike.

Government pushes back

Mexico’s Interior Ministry said the government has held multiple meetings with transport and agricultural groups and has provided billions of pesos in support to farmers, arguing there is “no reason” for the protests and warning that blockades affect third parties and the broader economy, according to Omnia.

Still, organizers say the strike could continue if no agreements are reached, raising the risk of ongoing disruptions to supply chains and freight movement across Mexico.

Israel has made clear that it doesn’t see the newly declared US-Iran ceasefire as applying to its war in Lebanon, where it is still trying to destroy Hezbollah. The White House too has made its stance clear that it doesn’t apply, but President Trump has stated his intent to take care of a Lebanon ceasefire separately. 

The military has unleashed hell on Beirut, southern Lebanon, and the eastern Bekaa valley overnight and through Wednesday – with Beirut suffering some of the worst aerial bombardments of the war.

Pakistan, however, has said that the ceasefire does extend to the Israel-Hezbollah conflict. But the Israeli military (IDF) is as usual letting the bombs do the talking, and is largely ignoring the diplomatic side of things.

Israel on Wednesday reportedly struck over 100 Hezbollah (and civilian) targets within a mere 10 minutes across Beirut, the south of the country, and Bekaa.

Viral images and videos have shown massive smoke plumes lingering above the densely populated Lebanese capital. The surprise attack on busy commercial locations unleashed panic in the streets – and a full casualty accounting has not been immediately forthcoming .

Below is an outline of some of the earlier reported attacks, via Al Jazeera:

• An air raid on a funeral in the the east Lebanon village of Shmestar killed at least 10 people.
• Six people were killed in one attack in Saida.
• Three people were killed in a strike in western Beirut.
• Three girls were killed in the coastal town of Adloun.
• At least two were killed in Douris in the Bekaa Valley.
• Casualties were reported in Kayfoun in Mount Lebanon.

⚡️Beirut now

Holy shit… pic.twitter.com/7hHquWxM2Y

— War Monitor (@WarMonitors) April 8, 2026

Here’s how the same regional outlet described it, noting that Lebanese TV has said the attacks have claimed “many lives”:  “Israel has launched a surprise attack with dozens of air strikes across Lebanon, one of the largest military assaults in the history of the conflict.” The report stated, “Air raids targeted residential buildings, mosques, vehicles and cemeteries across the country.”

Lebanon’s Minister of Social Affairs, Haneed Sayed, told the Associated Press that the wide-ranging strikes mark a “very dangerous turning point.”

She described: “These hits are now at the heart of Beirut… Half of the sheltered (internally displaced persons) are in Beirut in this area,” she said, adding that she had just driven by the areas hit.”

⚡️ Footage from the airstrikes on Beirut pic.twitter.com/HTDOdwFY33

— War Monitor (@WarMonitors) April 8, 2026

Hezbollah did not immediately join the Iran war until weeks in following the late February start of Trump’s Operation Epic Fury. However, by the middle it began sending a significant amount of rockets on northern Israel.

Importantly, President Trump has on Wednesday told PBS that his view is Lebanon is not part of the Iran ceasefire deal “because of Hezbollah” – but “that will get taken care of too”. He called what’s happening in Lebanon “a separate skirmish”.

Still smarting from its embarrassing source code leak, Anthropic announced it will not release its latest frontier AI model, Mythos, to the public, saying the model is too powerful in ways that introduce elevated cybersecurity risk.

In internal testing, Anthropic said the model surfaced thousands of high‑severity “zero‑day” vulnerabilities (previously unknown flaws) across every major operating system and web browser, materially outperforming its prior flagship (CyberGym vulnerability reproduction: 83.1% vs. 66.6% for Opus 4.6).  

“Given the rate of AI progress, it will not be long before such capabilities proliferate, potentially beyond actors who are committed to deploying them safely.”

A zero-day vulnerability is a software bug that can be exploited before anyone with the ability to fix it even knows it exists. Finding and patching them has historically required rare, expensive human expertise, but AI could change the scale and speed of detection. 

Anthropic said the vulnerabilities it finds are “often subtle or difficult to detect.” Many of them are 10 or 20 years old, with the oldest found so far being a now-patched 27-year-old bug in OpenBSD — an operating system known primarily for its security, it added.  It also found a 16-year-old bug in the FFmpeg media processing library, a 17-year-old remote code execution vulnerability in the open-source FreeBSD operating system and numerous vulnerabilities in the Linux kernel.

Mythos Preview also identified several weaknesses in the world’s most popular cryptography libraries, algorithms and protocols, including TLS, AES-GCM and SSH. 

It added that web applications “contain a myriad of vulnerabilities,” ranging from cross-site scripting and SQL injection to domain-specific vulnerabilities such as cross-site request forgery, which is often used in phishing attacks. 

Lifecycle of a zero-day exploit. Source: PhoenixNAP

Anthropic claimed that 99% of the vulnerabilities it found have not yet been patched, “so it would be irresponsible for us to disclose details about them.

Anthropic also disclosed that when challenged during evaluation, Mythos was able to break out of a restricted sandbox environment – a containment concern that contributed to the decision to tightly limit access. Here are some other things Mythos did during testing, per Axios:

• Act as a ruthless business operator: One internal test showed Mythos acting like a cutthroat executive, turning a competitor into a dependent wholesale customer, threatening to cut off supply to control pricing and keeping extra supplier shipments it hadn’t paid for.
• Hack + brag: The model developed a multi-step exploit to break out of restricted internet access, gained broader connectivity and posted details of the exploit on obscure public websites.
• Hide what it’s doing: In rare cases (less than 0.001% of interactions), Mythos used a prohibited method to get an answer, then tried to “re-solve” it to avoid detection.
• Manipulate the judge: When Mythos was working on a coding task graded by another AI, it watched the judge reject its submission, then attempted a prompt injection to attack the grader.

 “These capabilities are so strong that we now need to prepare for security in a very different way than we have for the past few decades,” Anthropic’s Logan Graham told Axios,  expressing concern over what would happen if similar AI capabilities were used by bad actors.

So rather than pursuing a broad release, Anthropic is channeling the model into Project Glasswing, a defensive, coalition‑based effort aimed at identifying, responsibly disclosing, and patching critical software vulnerabilities before threat actors can exploit similar AI capabilities.

Glasswing includes 11 named launch tech partners (Amazon Web Services, Apple, Broadcom, Cisco, CrowdStrike, Google, JPMorgan, the Linux Foundation, Microsoft, NVIDIA, and Palo Alto Networks…  yes JPMorgan is now viewed as a tech company) plus over 40 additional critical software organizations, and is supported by up to $100 million in usage credits and funding for open‑source security.

The initiative reflects Anthropic’s view that frontier‑AI cyber risks are systemic rather than firm‑specific, requiring coordinated action across the software ecosystem as AI accelerates vulnerability discovery and compresses response timelines.

The staggered release could be the blueprint for what future model releases look like as they get stronger and stronger: limiting access to select partners deemed secure enough to test world-bending systems.

Summary: 

• The Hegseth/Caine presser as expected declared ‘victory’ in Iran while Gen. Caine emphasized the ceasefire is a “pause” but US forces remain “ready to resume combat.“ Pentagon is trying to put a bow on Operation Epic Fury. NYT: 10-point plan might differ between Tehran & Washington.

• US, Iran agree to meet for first direct talks in Islamabad Friday, Pakistan PM Sharif announces. Situation fragile given that Iran is threatening to hit Israel again over IDF’s massive Lebanon airstrikes.

• Iran meanwhile demands stiff fees for ships passing through Hormuz during the ceasefire, and says it holds the final authority on which vessels get to pass. Tehran leaders have asserted ‘victory’ for Iran, amid positive international reaction to the ceasefire.

• The first two ships since the ceasefire was announced have crossed the Strait of Hormuz after Iran said it will demand that shipping companies pay tolls in cryptocurrency. Hours later, Fars announces a halt to ships’ passage. This as IDF pummels Lebanon.

• Saudi Arabia’s vital East-West oil pipeline carrying crude from the Gulf to the Red Sea for export has been attacked at a pumping station, oil rises on the news. There’s been sporadic attacks on other Gulf states too. Kuwait sees key energy, water sites hit.

*  *  *

Differing Versions of the 10-point Plan?

This is alarming and surreal, and doesn’t bode well for what’s already a very shaky ceasefire holding, via the NY Times:

A White House official says that the 10-point peace plan that Iran publicly released on Wednesday differs from the plan that Trump said was a “workable basis on which to negotiate.” The official declined to elaborate on the differences but said Karoline Leavitt, the White House press secretary, was expected to clarify at a 1 p.m. briefing.

There’s talk of Kushner, Witkoff, and maybe Vance going to Pakistan for planned Friday meeting with Iranian side.

Key Energy Sites Hit in Kuwait, Despite Ceasefire

Kuwait’s ⁠Interior Ministry is condemning fresh Iran attacks, reporting “severe material damage” at ⁠several vital facilities of the ⁠Kuwait Petroleum Corporation. Also water desalination plants have been hit.

“The ministry said fire broke out at some of the attacked sites, which include oil facilities, three power stations and water desalination plants,” Al Jazeera reports.

Oil Transit through Hormuz Halted Again: FARS

Iran’s Fars News agency reports that oil tankers passing through Hormuz have been stopped after Israel’s “ceasefire breach.” This as Iranian officials are warning of resumed missile launches on Israel for what’s happening in Lebanon (see below).

There’s currently contradiction and confusion over whether the Pakistan-mediated Iran ceasefire deal extends to Lebanon. Pakistan says yes, Iran says yes, while the US and Israel say no. Tehran appears willing to apply its leverage. Oil jumps on initial ‘breach’ rumblings…

Hellish scenes out of Berit on Wednesday:

Chaos in Beirut as Israel carries out a wave of airstrikes across the country hitting what it said were more than 100 targets in ten minutes. pic.twitter.com/t0If72xogY

— Will Christou (@will_christou) April 8, 2026

Israel in Massive Surprise Attack on Lebanon; Iran Warns Could Resume Missiles on Israel

A surprise Israeli attack on Beirut, southern Lebanon, and the eastern Bekaa Valley has resulted in huge destruction and many casualties. President Trump has said the Lebanon conflict is not part of the Iran ceasefire deal, contradicting statements out of Pakistan. But Trump said that will be taken care of separately, and appeared to defend Israel’s ability to go after Hezbollah.

Iranian officials are signaling they could be ready to resume ballistic missile attacks on Israel once again, as a response to the strikes on Lebanon.

Meanwhile a statement from the UAE: “The blatant Iranian attacks since the ceasefire took effect have reached 17 ballistic missiles and 35 drones, and the air defenses have successfully dealt with them,” the UAE’s ministry of defence said in a social media post. Kuwait has said the same.

US, Iranian Delegates Agree to Meet in Islamabad Friday

Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has announced that American and Iranian delegates have accepted an invitation to meet in Islamabad on Friday.

He said of a talk with the Iranian president, “I expressed my deep appreciation for the wisdom and foresight of Iran’s leadership in accepting Pakistan’s proposal to host peace talks in Islamabad later this week, aimed at our joint efforts to restore calm to the region. President Pezeshkian also affirmed Iran’s participation in the upcoming negotiations, expressed gratitude for Pakistan’s efforts, and extended his best wishes to the people of Pakistan.”

IRGC Parliament Official: ‘Maritime Traffic in the Strait of Hormuz Must be Halted’

Reuters has picked up on the words of IRGC officer and member of Iranian parliament’s “Expediency Discernment Council” Mohsen Rezaee: “In response to the brutal aggression against Lebanon, maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz must be halted immediately and a strong, decisive strike must be delivered against the entity.”

This perhaps represents a hardline faction approach, given clearly Tehran has held significant leverage and maintains de facto control of the Hormuz Strait. However, it does not yet appear the official government position, given also the first two vessels have passed through the waterway since the ceasefire was announced.

As we reported earlier Wednesday, The Liberia-flagged Daytona Beach, destined for the United Arab Emirates, crossed just before 8am UK time, while the Greek-owned NJ Earth followed about two hours later, with its destination undisclosed, the tracking platform Kpler showed.

Saudi Aramco Export Pipeline To Red Sea Struck

A huge, and not very ‘ceasefirey’ development in Saudi Arabia, per the FT (just as Hegseth was speaking): “A pumping station was hit at 1 p.m. local time, the people told FT. The attack was carried out by a drone and damage was being assessed, one of the people told FT Saudi Aramco, which owns and operates the pipeline.” FT continues, “The people said a pumping station, one of several along the 1,200km pipeline that has become an economic lifeline for the kingdom since the near closure of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, was hit at about 1pm local time on Wednesday.”

One Gulf based representative and analyst complains, “For a ceasefire, the fire does not seem to be ceasing. The UAE and Kuwait are under attack, and Iran says it is under attack too. Beyond the ceasefire itself, the bigger question is that the plan still looks unclear when it comes to what follows…”

The development pushed oil slightly up…

Pentagon Tries to put a Bow on Operation Epic Fury: ‘Overwhelming Victory’

Hegseth in his Pentagon press briefing called the ceasefire an “overwhelming victory” for the United States and stated the military “stands ready” to ensure Iran complies with the agreement. He said US forces will still be “hanging around” the region, and further that Iran’s nuclear “dust” is being monitored, buried under the rubble, and that eventually the US will either take the enriched uranium or else it will be handed over. “Iran begged for ceasefire,” Hegseth declared.

“We stand ready in the background to ensure Iran upholds every reasonable term,” Hegseth said. Also Joint Chiefs chairman Gen. Caine stated that all US objectives in Iran have been achieved.

He hailed that US has destroyed Iran’s defense-industrial base, including over 80% of missile facilities gone, and its navy lies at the “bottom of the Arabian Sea”. It’s clear that after six weeks the Pentagon is trying to put a bow on Operation Epic Fury.

During the Q&A, there was a question – largely dodged by Hegseth – centered on wither the US has achieved “strategic” victory vs. merely tactical victory. That ultimately is the question.

Also, is there really ceasefire on the ground? But this is merely day one:

For a ceasefire, the fire does not seem to be ceasing. The UAE and Kuwait are under attack, and Iran says it is under attack too. Beyond the ceasefire itself, the bigger question is that the plan still looks unclear when it comes to what follows, assuming the ceasefire actually…

— Nawaf Al-Thani نواف بن مبارك آل ثاني (@NawafAlThani) April 8, 2026

But Iran also sees this as Victory

The United States and Iran have announced a two-week suspension of all attacks, and Tehran reportedly agreed to allow safe transit of vessels through the Strait of Hormuz. It all started with President Trump seizing on the last-minute olive branch plan offered by Pakistan’s prime minister, which urged a two week extension of the US deadline before massive obliteration bombings began, and in return Iran would agree to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran has essentially declared victory and stated that upcoming talks in Islamabad, Pakistan, on Friday do not guarantee an end to the war. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has given supportive lip service to the US decision but stated that Lebanon is excluded from the two-week ceasefire.

Iran warns of decisive response to any ‘miscalculations’ by US. The IRGC said in a statement: “While we remain open to talks, we trust no promises from our adversaries. Our forces are poised, prepared by decades of experience in confrontations with American and Zionist forces, ready to respond decisively to any miscalculations by the enemy.”

Latest from Trump on Truth Social:

Oil prices dropped rapidly after Trump announced the pause, with Brent crude trading just below $95 per barrel. Qatar’s Cabinet welcomed the US-Iran ceasefire brokered by Pakistan, stating it emphasizes “the necessity of immediately halting all hostile actions and practices that undermine regional stability, respect for state sovereignty, and the assurance of security for maritime passages, freedom of navigation, and international trade.”

Iran meanwhile is demanding stiff fees for ships passing through Hormuz during the ceasefire, and says it holds the final authority on which vessels get to pass. So now, in essense… stability in global energy flows depends on accommodating Iran AND it will likely get sanctions relief, per the deal on the table.

Iranian state media has featured celebratory scenes in the streets:

🇮🇷🇺🇸 Breaking | Iranian television:

Trump agreed to Iran’s conditions to end the war.

Iran has officially won. pic.twitter.com/qjnt9lnTOO

— Global Insight Journal (@GlobalIJournal) April 7, 2026

Ceasefire Hailed Internationally

Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said on X that he held a “warm, substantive” conversation with Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian. “I conveyed my deep appreciation for the wisdom and sagacity of the Iranian leadership in accepting Pakistan’s offer to host peace talks in Islamabad later this week to work jointly for the return of peace to the region,” he said.

“President Pezeshkian reaffirmed Iran’s participation in the upcoming negotiations and expressed appreciation for Pakistan’s efforts, while conveying his best wishes for the people of Pakistan,” he added.

Lebanon’s President Joseph Aoun welcomed the ceasefire, while Israel has instead asserted that Lebanon remains outside the agreement and continued strikes on the country.

To quote armchair war hawk Michael Weiss, A month ago Trump demanded Iran’s “unconditional surrender.” Now the U.S. claims these are a feasible starting point for negotiations…

Pope Leo XIV praised the agreement as a “sign of real hope,” stating, “I welcome with satisfaction, and as a sign of real hope, the announcement of an immediate two-week truce. Only by returning to negotiations can we reach the end of the war,” during his weekly audience at the Vatican.

The International Atomic Energy Agency welcomed the ceasefire and signaled readiness to support a diplomatic resolution. Director General Rafael Grossi stated, “IAEA DG Grossi welcomes … a return to diplomacy aimed at negotiating a settlement on key issues including Iran’s nuclear program.” It added: “The IAEA stands ready to support these efforts through its indispensable safeguards and verification role.”

Attacks Continue? Hormuz Status

However, attacks on Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, and Kuwait continued on Wednesday, hours after the ceasefire announcement. Also, there’s as yet been no significant change in navigation traffic in the Strait of Hormuz today, per Bloomberg satellite data.

A global shipping industry group representing 130 companies and around 1,500 vessels stated that conditions in the Gulf remain unstable. CEO Knut Arild Hareide said, “We note the signals of a ceasefire, but the situation in the Strait of Hormuz remains unresolved and unpredictable.”

Airstrikes have reportedly targeted the Lavan oil refinery in Iran today. The ceasefire is seemingly in effect in name only. pic.twitter.com/PdH9CrjS6T

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) April 8, 2026

“It is not yet clear under what conditions safe transit can be carried out. Shipowners are assessing the situation and will not resume transits until there is real security for safe passage,” Hareide added.

Will it hold?

Ceasefire day 1:

Israel took multiple waves of Iranian missile fire after the ceasefire was announced.

Kuwait reports that more than two dozens drones were launched by Iran since 8am.

UAE is currently under an Iranian missile attack.

Iran, via state media, reports strikes…

— Trey Yingst (@TreyYingst) April 8, 2026

Earlier, Denmark’s Maersk shipping company stated that the ceasefire announcement does not provide sufficient certainty to resume normal operations in the region.

More Geopolitical Headlines

via Newsquawk…

• US President Donald Trump announced a two-week suspension of bombing in Iran, conditional on Iran reopening the Strait of Hormuz, describing it as a double-sided ceasefire and stating US military objectives have been met while a long-term peace agreement is close to completion.
• Trump said the US received a 10-point proposal from Iran that serves as a workable basis for negotiations, with most major points of contention already agreed and the two-week period intended to finalize the deal.
• Trump posted: “A big day for World Peace! Iran wants it to happen, they’ve had enough! Likewise, so has everyone else! The United States of America will be helping with the traffic buildup in the Strait of Hormuz. There will be lots of positive action! Big money will be made. Iran can start the reconstruction process…this could be the Golden Age of the Middle East!!!”
• Trump told AFP the Iran deal is complete and a comprehensive US victory, stating Iran’s uranium “will be perfectly taken care of” and that China played a role in bringing Iran to negotiations.
• Iranian outlet SNN reported possible ceasefire violations, citing explosions on Siri and Lavan islands, while Iran’s National Security Council warned that if attacks continue in southern Lebanon, it will strike Tel Aviv within hours.
• Iran confirmed negotiations with the US will take place in Islamabad starting April 10, aiming to formalize battlefield gains politically within 15 days, with talks extendable by mutual agreement.
• Iranian officials stated talks with the US do not signify the end of the war, while confirming safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz for two weeks and that operations will halt if attacks on Iran stop.
• Pakistan’s leadership invited US and Iranian delegations to Islamabad, with reports indicating US envoys and Vice President JD Vance are expected to attend.
• A US official said the ceasefire will begin this evening, though delays are expected in relaying orders to IRGC field units.
• Iran and Oman are expected to charge transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz under the ceasefire arrangement.
• Israeli outlet Ynet reported security sources stating the ceasefire will include Lebanon.
• Iran’s Supreme Leader instructed negotiators to pursue a truce, according to Axios.
• Iran’s UN ambassador stated Iran “categorically rejects any temporary ceasefire” and said any resolution must ensure a definitive end to aggression and establish lasting peace.
• The US will demand removal of nuclear materials from Iran, according to Israeli officials cited by Al Hadath via Haaretz.
• A White House official stated the ceasefire takes effect once the Strait of Hormuz is reopened.
• A senior White House official said Israel is included in the two-week ceasefire and has agreed to suspend bombing during negotiations.
• Oman’s transport minister stated no transit fees can be imposed in the Strait of Hormuz under existing agreements.
• Iraq’s Islamic Resistance announced a two-week suspension of operations.
• Hezbollah is preparing to announce its formal position on the ceasefire and respond to claims that Lebanon is excluded.
• A new wave of Iranian missiles was launched toward Israel.
• An Israeli military official stated Israel continues to conduct strikes inside Iran.
• Explosions were reported on Iran’s Sirri Island, with the source unidentified.
• Explosions were also reported at the Lavan oil refinery in Iran, with the cause unknown.
• Bahrain issued a missile alert hours after the US-Iran ceasefire announcement.
• Reports indicated an explosion in Kermanshah in northwestern Iran.
• The IDF confirmed detection of missiles launched from Iran toward Israel.
• Iran’s Supreme Security Council stated forces remain ready to respond immediately and with full force to any escalation.
• Maritime data showed traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains light and limited.

* * *

Delta Air Lines soared in premarket trading on a combination of the U.S.-Iran ceasefire and stronger-than-expected first-quarter results, with the carrier’s in-house refinery helping to lower the average jet fuel price for its fleet in the first quarter, making it appear to be one of the better-positioned carriers than most peers to withstand an energy shock.

Even without a ceasefire in the Middle East, Delta’s first-quarter results only exemplified its strategic advantage over peers: its Trainer refinery in Pennsylvania, operated through its wholly owned subsidiary Monroe Energy, reduced the airline’s fuel price by more than 2% during the quarter and is expected to provide a $300 million benefit in the second quarter.

“Delta is best positioned to navigate this environment, with a leading brand, strong financial foundation, and the benefit of our refinery,” Delta CEO Ed Bastian wrote in the earnings release.

Bastian continued, “We delivered earnings that were more than 40% higher than last year, even with a significant increase in fuel costs and operational disruptions across the industry.”

The airline expects second-quarter jet fuel expenses to top $2 billion at the forward curve.

Here’s a snapshot of first-quarter earnings (courtesy of Bloomberg):

Adjusted EPS 64c vs. 45c y/y, estimate 57c (Bloomberg Consensus)

• Loss per share 44c vs. EPS 37c y/y

Adjusted revenue $14.20 billion, +9.4% y/y, estimate $14.08 billion

• Passenger revenue $12.30 billion, +7.2% y/y, estimate $12.28 billion

• Cargo revenue $226 million, +8.7% y/y, estimate $213.7 million

Passenger load factor 81.6% vs. 81.4% y/y, estimate 82.4%

Available seat miles 69.16 billion, +1.1% y/y, estimate 69.15 billion

Revenue passenger miles 56.47 billion, +1.4% y/y, estimate 56.96 billion

Adjusted net income $423 million, +45% y/y, estimate $372 million

Yield per passenger mile 21.78c, +5.6% y/y

“Demand remains strong, and we are taking actions to protect our margins and cash flow. This includes meaningfully reducing capacity growth, with a downward bias until the fuel environment improves, and moving quickly to recapture higher fuel costs. Delta is best positioned to navigate this environment,” the CEO said.

Earnings outlook for the second quarter (courtesy of Bloomberg):

• Sees adjusted EPS of $1 to $1.50, estimate $1.45

• Sees adjusted total revenue up low teens y/y

• Sees adjusted operating margin of 6% to 8%

Shares of Delta jumped nearly 13% in premarket trading. Delta shares tumbled into a bear market last month during the U.S.-Iran conflict but have since rebounded from mid-March.

Related: 

• Airline Stocks Soar On Iran Ceasefire As IATA Sees “Positive” Tailwinds, But Warns Jet Fuel Crisis Will Persist

Delta is the only U.S. airline that operates a major refinery, and it appears Wall Street is rewarding the carrier for it.

By Michael Every and Bas van Geffen of Rabobank

Ceasefire

Yesterday, the US and Iran threatened to, respectively, “destroy Iranian civilisation” with “new tools” and other countries in the Gulf with old ones. Ahead of the 8PM deadline that Trump had set for “Bridge and Power Plant Day,” US and Israeli forces reportedly already destroyed some bridges and other infrastructure.

Washington and Tehran struck a last-minute, two-week ceasefire – provided that the Strait of Hormuz is fully reopened. Notably, this was after China leaned on Iran to listen to interlocutor Pakistan, according to the New York Times. That key intervention underlines the global nature of this war beyond energy and related exports, and how it is resolved.

Markets are trading this as a TACO Tuesday. Brent futures are down 14% at the time of writing, Asian equity markets rallied, and futures pricing suggests the same will happen when European and American markets open. And bets of near-term rate hikes evaporated as the truce ends days before major central banks next reconvene to recalibrate their policy stance. 10-year German Bund yields fell 18bp (!)on the open.

Yet, this short-term truce is not a peace deal, and is anyone willing to sail through the Strait as long as the conflict isn’t fully resolved? So, today’s reprieve will be followed by at least two weeks of extended uncertainty – and possibly longer, if both sides agree to extend the negotiations.

Moreover, there is a world of difference between Iran having blinked under US military threats, which would be a huge win for Trump and the US, and the US having blinked in the face of Iranian resistance and oil prices, which would be a massive 1956-style geostrategic defeat for Trump.

In the immediate aftermath of the ceasefire, both headlines and missiles kept flying. Iran hit Israel and a GCC energy site. The US said “an” Iranian 10-point plan is a “workable basis on which to negotiate” (might we have an intractable public version and a more pliable private one to save face?), while Iran’s foreign minister is “considering” the directly opposed 15-point US plan.

And, returning to shipping, Iran claimed it will still take tolls from Hormuz with Oman, adding that only 10-15 ships per day can pass, a tiny fraction of normal flows. Is that the “full reopening” of Hormuz that the US set as a precondition?

Subsequently, an unsubstantiated report claimed that Iran has agreed to most US conditions, including: a permanent commitment not to possess nuclear weapons; handing over enriched uranium to the IAEA; allowing the IAEA to monitor all nuclear infrastructure; a complete halt to uranium enrichment within Iran; reducing the range and number of missiles; immediately ceasing support for militias and proxies in the region; ceasing attacks on regional Gulf energy facilities; reopening the Strait of Hormuz immediately and unconditionally; the lifting of all sanctions imposed on Iran; eliminating the mechanism for reimposing UN sanctions; and US support for the Bushehr nuclear power plant, provided it is under direct American supervision.

Iran’s Supreme National Security Council has stated, “The current negotiations are a national negotiation and a continuation of the field, and it is necessary for all people, elites, and political groups to trust and support this process, which is under the supervision of the Leader of the Revolution and the highest levels of the system, and to strictly avoid any divisive comments.”

Trump claimed “total and complete victory”, and posted that it’s a “big day for World Peace”, the US will be “helping with the traffic buildup in the Strait of Hormuz,” while Iran can “start reconstruction,” and the US will be “loading up with supplies of all kinds, and “just “hangin’ around” in order to make sure everything goes well,” where “This could be the Golden Age of the Middle East.”

So, the fog of war is still in place even if the fighting might have stopped for now. Nobody knows what will happen next, but the possible spectrum is clear:

• Best case: the war is over – though the related Israel-Hezbollah one in Lebanon is apparently not included, according to PM Netanyahu– and other related global tensions could even ease in tandem. (Because the US wins as Iran and others blink.)

• Good case: the war is over. (Because Iran blinked.)

• ‘Good’ case: the war is over. (Because Trump blinked. The knock-on effects aren’t something markets want to consider now, but they aren’t pretty for the dollar or GCC and western assets.)

• OK case: the war is paused and Hormuz reopens briefly to give the world economy some breathing room. (Because Iran US blinked.)

• Worst case: the ceasefire collapses and the war both continues and escalates to try to get us back to one side backing down – watch US military logistics closely.

In terms of our macro and market scenarios, the latest news leans towards our base case of fighting being over by mid-April with a slow Hormuz reopening – and on US terms. Obviously, if this pause instead leads to more fighting, we move towards our other, more damaging scenarios.

* * *

Authored by T.J. Muscaro via The Epoch Times,

The Artemis II astronauts are on their way home from the moon.

NASA’s Reid Wiseman, Victor Glover, and Christina Koch, and the Canadian Space Agency’s Jeremy Hansen left lunar space just before 1:30 p.m. ET on April 7.

After carrying humanity’s representatives to the farthest point in space ever ventured—where they witnessed cosmic wonders never before seen by mankind—the Orion spacecraft Integrity will return its crew to Earth’s gravity, targeting a splashdown in the Pacific.

But it was the moon that ultimately sent them home. Integrity swung around the farside of the moon, essentially using its gravitational pull to make the necessary U-turn to start the nearly four-day journey home.

The ship reached a peak altitude of 252,756 statute miles above the Earth just after 7 p.m. on April 6 as the moon blocked communications. It was around this point that the crew was at their closest point to the moon, a little more than 4,000 miles above the lunar surface.

Once the crew re-emerged from behind the moon and reacquired communication with mission control, their distance to Earth only became closer and closer. But they started home with confidence of a successful return very soon.

“We will explore. We will build ships. We will visit again,” Koch said.

“We will construct science outposts. We will drive rovers. We will do radio astronomy. We will found companies. We will bolster industry. We will inspire.

“But ultimately, we will always choose Earth. We will always choose each other.”

Artemis Ii is scheduled to splashdown in the Pacific Ocean off the coast of San Diego just after 8 p.m. ET on April 10.

Flight director Rick Henfling told reporters during a daily mission briefing at Johnson Space Center on April 7 that the mission’s recovery ship, the USS John P Murtha, has left port in anticipation for Integrity’s return.

Gigabytes of Data

Henfling was joined by NASA administrator Jared Isaacman, who said that as Artemis II continues its journey home, approximately 175 gigabytes of data collected during its seven-hour lunar flyby will be beamed down ahead of it.

Kelsey Young, the mission’s lunar science lead, said that NASA scientists will spend the next six months after splashdown studying all of the images and data and releasing two reports for the public. One report will focus on NASA’s operational structure during the flyby, analyzing how lunar science worked seamlessly with flight operations and the crew during the event. The second will be a preliminary science report that will demonstrate the results of each objective. Young emphasized that the science report will be structured in a way that is transparent and empowers the scientific community to help further expand understanding of the material themselves.

But some photos that made it back to Earth have already been released.

One of them is “Earthset.” Like Apollo 8’s historic “Earthrise” picture taken in December 1968, Artemis II’s striking image displays humanity’s home planet partially lit just above the lunar horizon. But Apollo 8 photographed the Earth after coming around the farside of the moon when the Earth appeared to rise in the lunar sky.

Earthset captured through the Orion spacecraft window at 6:41 p.m. ET on April 6, 2026, during the Artemis II crew’s flyby of the Moon. Courtesy of NASA

Artemis II took its picture of a crescent Earth just before it appeared to set below the horizon as Integrity flew around the farside of the moon.

The space agency has also shared pictures of the visible farside of the moon that include pictures of the entire Orientale Basin, parts of the lunar South Pole-Aitken Basin, and the two craters that the Artemis II crew hopes to officially name. They proposed that one crater be named Integrity, after their spaceship, and another be named Carroll in honor of Wiseman’s late wife, who passed away in 2020 of cancer.

As Wiseman, Glover, Koch, and Hansen watch the Earth get bigger and bigger in the window, they continue to perform mission objectives, including another manual test flight and course correction burn. They also had a ship-to-ship communication with NASA astronauts Jessica Meir, Jack Hathaway, and Chris Williams, and European Space Agency astronaut Sophie Adenot aboard the International Space Station.

It was the first ship-to-ship communication between astronauts in low Earth orbit and deep space. The eight colleagues shared laughs, messages of support, and what the moonshot was like for the three former space station crew members compared to their times in Earth orbit. They also recognized how so much of space station life was integrated into Artemis II, even down to the fact that the crews were eating the same food.

The ship-to-ship transmission ended with both crews wishing each other good luck and that they were all looking forward to being reunited with each other back on home soil.