Authored by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog,

Have you noticed it too?  There has been a dramatic shift in the economy in recent days.  It has been sudden and it has been severe.  All over the country, sales are falling like a rock, inventories are piling up to alarming levels, and large companies are beginning to conduct mass layoffs.  Perhaps it was inevitable that such a downturn would arrive, but the Federal Reserve has made things far worse by rapidly hiking interest rates.  Every other time the Fed has engaged in such a rate hiking binge it has resulted in a recession, and there is no way that we are going to escape unscathed this time around. 

The following are 11 signs that economic activity is plunging off a cliff…

#1 This year, only 74 percent of Americans will celebrate Thanksgiving because so many people are skipping the holiday in order to save money…

In 2021, researchers note that an IPSOS survey found that nine in 10 Americans planned to celebrate Thanksgiving. This year, the new poll of 1,000 people found that number has fallen to just 74 percent. In fact, 47 percent say they’re celebrating “Friendsgiving” because of its more budget-friendly menu. Specifically, just 24 percent of Friendsgiving celebrations will even have a turkey on the table, with 33 percent opting for a pizza instead!

#2 Used vehicle prices have just plunged at the fastest pace that we have seen since 2008.

#3 A Dollar General assistant manager named Travis Bennett recently posted a video on TikTok that showed unsold inventory at his store literally piling up to the roof…

In a video with over 380,000 views addressed to “anyone inside this company that actually cares,” TikTok user Travis Bennett shows the conditions of his Dollar General. This includes boxes filling the aisles and numerous crates that have not been unpacked. Bennett says this is typical for “most Dollar General stores across the country.”

#4 Consumer confidence in the housing market just hit an all-time record low.

#5 All over America, companies are seeing depressingly low sales numbers.  In fact, it is being reported that the Net Rising Index “is getting close to a level which corresponds to several past recessions”…

A closely watched survey from the National Association for Business Economics has shown a decline in sales for companies that hasn’t been this sharp since the mid-2020 Covid crash and is getting close to a level which corresponds to several past recessions. The Net Rising Index (NRI) for sales — the percentage of survey respondents reporting rising sales minus the percentage reporting falling sales — peaked at 74% of firms in April 2021. As of October, it’s down to 36%.

#6 CNN is reporting that Facebook could start laying off thousands of workers “as early as this week”.

#7 Other large tech companies are also conducting mass layoffs, and many believe that what we have experienced so far is just the tip of the iceberg.

#8 Credit card debt growth has fallen to the lowest level in 4 months.

#9 20 million U.S. households are behind on paying their power bills.

#10 37 percent of all small business owners were not able to pay their rent on time during the month of October.

#11 A poll that was just released found that a whopping 73 percent of Americans will be “thinking a lot about the economy” when they vote.

The fact that voters are so focused on the economy right now appears to be really bad news for Democrats.

The guy in the White House always gets most of the credit or most of the blame for how the economy is performing, and right now Joe Biden’s approval rating is downright dismal…

Voters’ approval of President Joe Biden remains deep in negative territory and 70 percent of voters say the country is on the wrong track — both results that bode ill for Democrats as Election Day approaches.

Fifty-five percent of registered voters said they disapprove of the job Biden is doing as president, and just 42 percent said they approve in the last POLITICO-Morning Consult poll conducted in advance of Tuesday’s election.

Of course Joe Biden is still going to be in the White House no matter what happens during the midterm elections.

In fact, either he or Kamala Harris will be residing there until at least January 2025.

So there won’t be any major policy changes for the foreseeable future.

Meanwhile, economic conditions are just going to continue to deteriorate.

As this new downturn accelerates, a lot of Americans are going to lose their jobs.

In fact, Bank of America is projecting that job losses in this country will soon hit 175,000 a month…

As pressure from the Fed’s war on inflation builds, nonfarm payrolls will begin shrinking early next year, translating to a loss of about 175,000 jobs a month during the first quarter, the bank said. Charts published by Bank of America suggest job losses will continue through much of 2023.

“The premise is a harder landing rather than a softer one,” Michael Gapen, head of US economics at Bank of America, told CNN in a phone interview Monday.

Sadly, that is a wildly optimistic projection.

During times like these, you will want to be carrying as little debt as possible, and you will want to have a sizable emergency fund so that you can continue paying the bills if something happens.

In 2008 and 2009, millions of Americans ended up losing their homes because they couldn’t continue paying the bills once they lost their jobs.

Don’t let that happen to you.

The times that we are moving into won’t be pleasant.  Eventually, they will be far worse than anything that we experienced in 2008 and 2009.

But that doesn’t mean that we have to be depressed about what is coming.

When I was growing up, I was often told that “when times get tough, the tough get going”.

Those that choose to be bold and tough are going to have a much better chance of making it through what is ahead.

Unfortunately, boldness and toughness are in short supply in our society today, and the coming economic slowdown is likely to cause a massive national emotional breakdown.

*  *  *

It is finally here! Michael’s new book entitled “End Times” is now available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

Below is my column in the New York Post on what a flipping of either (or both) houses might bring for President Joe Biden.

While the President has cited his own impeachment as the danger of such a change, it may be the least of his worries. As we wait for the final tally on seats in both houses, here are three areas that represent a more serious threat to the President than removal from office.

Here is the column:

In the movie “The Longest Day,” Maj. Werner Pluskat tried to warn his superior about the approaching armada that he was seeing on the horizon. His superior asks where they are heading, and Pluskat responds, “Straight for me!”

In the days before the midterm “D-Day,” President Joe Biden increasingly sounded like Pluskat.

Last Thursday, Biden warned supporters that the Republicans have made clear “they’re gonna impeach me.” When Biden warned that he might be impeached if voters do not stop a Republican wave, there was an audible laugh which prompted the President to added “No, I’m not joking.”

While Biden may or may not be the subject of an impeachment, a Republican-controlled House has plenty to investigate, and impeachment is unlikely his greatest fear.

Here are the top three concerns, and there is every indication that Biden is wise to be worried.

Hunter Biden and Influence Peddling

House Democrats repeatedly moved to block investigations into the alleged multimillion-dollar influence-peddling operations by the Biden family. For his part, Attorney General Merrick Garland steadfastly refused to appoint a special counsel despite an overwhelming basis for such an appointment.

Biden has repeatedly denied knowledge of Hunter Biden’s business entanglements despite numerous emails and pictures showing him meeting with Hunter associates. Hunter’s partner, Eric Schwerin, alone made at least 19 visits to the White House and other official locations between 2009 and 2015.

There are emails of Chinese, Ukrainian and other foreign clients including some thanking Hunter Biden for arranging meetings with his father. People apparently were told to avoid directly referring to Joe Biden. In one email, Tony Bobulinski, then a business partner of Hunter, was instructed by Biden associate James Gilliar that the Bidens wanted to avoid such references: “Don’t mention Joe being involved, it’s only when u [sic] are face to face, I know u [sic] know that but they are paranoid.”

Instead, the emails refer to Joe Biden with code names such as “Celtic” or “the big guy.” In one, “the big guy” is discussed as possibly receiving a 10% cut on a deal with a Chinese energy firm; other emails reportedly refer to Hunter Biden paying portions of his father’s expenses and taxes.

An investigation into the alleged influence peddling by Hunter, his uncle James and his father could reveal additional information of how foreign interests pumped millions into the Biden family. As we learn more of this influence-peddling operation, the FBI may face increased questions over its response to the allegations as well as many in the media, who were actively involved in burying the story before and after the election.

Social Media and Censorship-by-Surrogate

The president has at times acted as a virtual censor-in-chief, denouncing social-media companies for “killing people” by not censoring enough. Recently, he expressed doubt that the public can “know the truth” without such censorship by “editors” in Big Tech. There is growing evidence of long-suspected back channels between government and Democratic political figures and Big Tech. Some of those contacts were recently confirmed but Congress again refused to investigate.

If officials coordinated the censorship of citizens, it could lead to lawsuits (in addition to already pending actions) and embarrassing disclosures. The government cannot do indirectly what it is barred from doing directly. The investigation could produce considerable collateral damage for political and media figures alike.

Pandemic politics and policies

Republicans have pledged to open a full investigation into what officials knew about the origins and risks of COVID-19. Specifically, members like Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) have pledged to uncover material showing what officials like Dr. Anthony Fauci knew about the lack of efficacy of masks as well as guidelines on limiting groups or the closure of businesses and schools. These investigations might also reveal the coordination of health-care guidelines with teacher unions and political allies.

These investigations could eventually be linked in critical ways. For example, many of those who questioned the efficacy and cost of the massive lockdown were barred on social media (and attacked in the mainstream media). Fauci is accused of quickly scuttling such discussion, and critics point to his own alleged approval of gain-of-function research at the Wuhan lab.

These investigations could also present a serious challenge to Attorney General Garland. Not only will the Hunter Biden investigation shed light on his inexplicable opposition to a special counsel, but Garland has been very aggressive in prosecuting contempt of Congress against Trump officials. He may now face contempt referrals from a new Republican-controlled House and will be asked to show the same aggression against Biden officials or associates.

It is not clear whether Biden’s more personal existential plea moved the needle for voters, but it was arguably his most honest pitch as he contemplated the perilous future if either house flipped to the GOP.

Authored by Ron Paul via The Ron Paul Institute for Peace & Prosperity,

Politicians and the media always say that this is the most important election ever, but all too often once the voting is over and the smoke has cleared, not much changes. The Washington uni-party takes over and makes sure the status quo is maintained.

It doesn’t have to be this way.

An incoming Republican House and/or Senate, for example, could take early steps to reassure their supporters that their votes weren’t wasted on Tweedledee vs. Tweedledum in Washington. Here are three suggestions to get things off to a good start.

First, Republican Party Leadership must vow to end the massive money spigot opened by the last Congress for Ukraine. By some estimates some $60 billion dollars have been authorized for Ukraine to fight a proxy war between the US/NATO and Russia.

This would be a move strongly supported by the Republican base. A recent Wall Street Journal poll showed that only 37 percent of Republicans support sending more US aid to Ukraine. Republican firebrand Representative Marjorie Taylor-Greene said recently that under Republicans, not another penny will go to Ukraine. While I am skeptical that her party leadership would support such a move, it’s clear Republican voters would.

Plus, ending this proxy war would carry with it the benefit of reducing the dangerously high possibility of global nuclear war. That’s not a bad trade-off.

Second, Republicans can signal that they will de-fund the Department of Homeland Security. At the time this monstrosity was created, I said this on the House Floor:

“The list of dangerous and unconstitutional powers granted to the new Homeland Security department is lengthy. Warrantless searches, forced vaccinations of whole communities, federal neighborhood snitch programs, federal information databases, and a sinister new ‘Information Awareness Office’ at the Pentagon that uses military intelligence to spy on domestic citizens are just a few of the troubling aspects of the new legislation.”

Unfortunately all of these things came to pass…and more. As we recently learned, the DHS has been colluding with social media companies to try and prevent Americans from being able to say or post opinions the government doesn’t want others to hear.

They promised that a Department of Homeland Security would keep us safer, but there is nothing that makes us less safe than the destruction of our Constitution.

Finally, the third task an incoming Republican House and Senate can take is maybe the easiest one: pass the Audit the Fed bill. Ten years ago the US House voted in a bipartisan manner to pass my Audit the Fed legislation only to see it stall in the Senate. With Republican control of both houses of Congress there is no reason a broadly-supported bill to open the books at the Federal Reserve cannot find its way to President Biden’s desk. We all support transparency, right?

Inflation is out of control and causing real harm to the American middle class. The Biden Administration seems determined to lead us to a potentially life-ending war with Russia. The Department of Homeland Security has turned into a weapon mobilized against the American people and our Constitution.

A Republican-controlled House and Senate can actually do something to fix these problems and thus make us more safe and more free. Will they?

House prices are sliding, and sales are plunging as the Federal Reserve hits the pause button on quantitative easing this year with the most aggressive interest rate hikes in four decades to cool the red-hot housing market spurred by low interest rates and tight inventories during the pandemic.

A rising rate environment has sent the average thirty-year fixed mortgage rate to highs not seen since the Dot Com collapse era over two decades ago. This abrupt surge in rates caused an affordability crisis in housing as prices remained at lofty levels this year, forcing real-estate brokerage Redfin Corp. to slash workers in June. 

Now the online real-estate brokerage has announced the second round of layoffs, as well as an exit from its home-flipping business called “iBuying.” 

Redfin CEO Glenn Kelman sent a letter to employees, also published on the company’s website, about the layoffs. He indicated 13% of staff, or about 862 people, will be fired. 

We’re laying off 862 brilliant, loyal people and also closing RedfinNow.

We’ll still need home-services employees for our concierge service to fix up brokerage customers’ listings, but since that group spent most of its time renovating RedfinNow homes, it will get much smaller.

Kelman explained the layoffs are equivalent to about 13% of the workforce. Since April 27, about 27% of the total workforce has been reduced — this coincides with a rising interest rate environment and souring macroeconomic backdrop for the economy forced on by the Fed’s monetary tightening.

The top-level executive made a bold prediction about the 2023 housing market: 

A layoff is awful but we can’t avoid it. We plan to keep increasing our share of the market, but that market in 2023 is likely to be 30% smaller than it was in 2021. The June layoff was a response to our expectation that we’d sell fewer houses in 2022; this layoff assumes the downturn will last at least through 2023. 

Besides reducing headcount, Redfin is also exiting iBuying, a large-scale home-flipping operation, because it’s been a massive money pit for the company. Kelman said:

RedfinNow Is Too Much Money and Risk: And the second problem is that iBuying is a staggering amount of money and risk for a now-uncertain benefit. We’ve tied up hundreds of millions of dollars in houses that you yourself wouldn’t want to own right now. Even before its overhead expenses, the RedfinNow properties segment will likely lose $22 – $26 million dollars in 2022. However small our iBuying loss may be compared to others, that loss is still larger than we could afford to bear again.

Redfin’s troubles also come as the lagged Case-Shiller Index showed US housing prices dropped 1.3% from their June 2022 peak in August. This is the biggest monthly decline since the Lehman collapse.  

The national home price index growth has slowed for five straight months (below 13% YoY for the first time since Feb 2021). The absolute drop in the growth rate of 2.62 percentage points is the largest ever…

Researchers at Goldman Sachs forecast home prices could slide 5-10% from peak to trough — with their official forecast model predicting a 7.6% decline. 

Given the unprecedented explosion in mortgage rates and near-record-high prices, contributing to the worst affordability crisis ever for future homeowners, Redfin’s decision to substantially reduce headcount this year and exit the home flipping industry comes as 2023 could be a year of turmoil for the housing market. 

Add Redfin to the list of mounting layoffs across tech. 

Layoffs This Month (% of Workers):

1. Twitter: 50%

2. Cameo: 25%

3. Robinhood: 23%

4. Intel: 20%

5. Snapchat: 20%

6. Coinbase: 18%

7. Opendoor: 18%

8. Stripe: 14%

9. Lyft: 13%

10. Shopify: 10%

11. Meta: “Thousands”

12. Apple: Hiring Freeze

13. Amazon: Hiring Freeze

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) November 8, 2022

Authored by Connor O’Keeffe via The Mises Institute,

It’s been a rough year for advocates of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT). After nearly two years with all the budget deficits and money printing MMTers could have wanted, the doctrine’s popularity seems to have faded now that we’re well passed the honeymoon phase. 2022 has clearly demonstrated that creating a lot of new money and running massive government deficits does, in fact, come at a cost.

We should let this theory die before it causes any more destruction.

MMT is a school of thought born and raised on the internet during a thirty-year period of low price inflation with constant debate over government budgets. Advocates argue that because the U.S. government is a currency issuer, we can drop all the talk about finding money for government programs. All that is needed is the political will to fund things with newly printed money. Suddenly in early 2020, that political will appeared overnight at a scale no one could have imagined even weeks before. 

The Federal Government embraced deficit spending to prop up the economy amidst imposed lockdowns and trade restrictions. Now, 31 months later, the National Debt has increased by almost $8 trillion. At the same time, the money supply, as measured by M2, grew by $6 trillion, an increase of nearly 40%. Most critics of the free market would probably classify this historic level of money printing and debt as an unfortunate but necessary response to unprecedented circumstances. But not advocates of MMT. This is what they’ve been wanting all along. 

According to MMT, having concerns about the national debt is antiquated and childish. In fact, they argue that the total national debt is nothing more than a record of how many dollars there are in the pockets of private citizens. A higher national debt is not a consequence of MMT; it’s the entire point. The pandemic was, in many ways, MMT’s moment. 

Predictably, the historic level of monetary inflation paired with the government-imposed production slowdown has resulted in levels of consumer price inflation not seen in 40 years. The rate appears to have peaked in June 2022, with prices on average 9.1% higher than the year prior. Producer price inflation also peaked in June at 11.3%. Although most MMT advocates had been dismissive of inflation, that’s not something they would have said was impossible. The problem for them is what they think needs to be done about it. 

Just as MMT sees the national debt as a measurement of all the dollars the government created and put into people’s pockets, taxes are the tools for the government to take money back out of the economy if inflation gets too high. Setting aside how economically flawed this characterization is, a government following the MMT playbook will run into a political problem at this point in the cycle. 

It is relatively easy to convince politicians and everyday people that the government programs they dream about can be funded by creating new money. And the true cost of this method—currency devaluation—is not felt or seen immediately. That adds to the illusion that something can be had for nothing. But taxes are the opposite. Everyone can see the line on their receipt, the amount withheld on payday, and the check they have to send to the IRS each April. The economic pain is felt without any clear, immediate benefit. 

During periods of high inflation, there is a general sense amongst everyday people that the same amount of money isn’t cutting it. Sure, the initial cause may be a higher money supply, but any given person will feel like possessing more money is the key to getting by. After all, prices keep going up. They’re not going to react as well to the argument that Uncle Sam should confiscate even more of their dollars. If MMTers thought it was difficult to cultivate the political will to inflate, they clearly haven’t been thinking further down the road. 

Interestingly, we’re not hearing much about raising taxes from MMT advocates these days. Or at least, their claims haven’t been amplified by Democrats and progressives as much as earlier arguments to print more money were. Just as they have done with Keynesianism for decades, politicians will grab any economic theory that justifies what they want and drop it when it prescribes something they don’t. And thank goodness for that. The last thing we need is more taxes. 

This year has demonstrated that printing vast quantities of money is costly. And that the political will to even stick with MMT breaks down when the going gets tough. That should be enough to completely discredit this ridiculous theory. 

Despite all the prognostications of a ‘red wave, the (early) results of the Midterms elections appear to be barely a red ripple with both chambers seeing a much closer than expected split.

House races are still being counted, but Republicans are poised to only have a majority of a handful of seats.

This means that a small group of House lawmakers can drive or reject the agenda for the chamber. This is essentially a rerun of Democrat Joe Manchin’s role in the Senate over the past two years, where one man could make or break Democrats’ ambitions.  The widely-followed NY Times “needle” forecast puts the odds of a Republican House majority at 84%; prediction markets are roughly the same.

The Senate outcome likely won’t be known for a while.

The contest between incumbent Democrat Raphael Warnock and Republican Herschel Walker in Georgia remained too close to call early Wednesday, making a Dec. 6 runoff increasingly likely. Democrats lead by 6pp in Arizona, with 1/3 of the estimated votes still outstanding. Prediction markets imply an 88% probability of a Democratic win there. Republicans lead in Nevada, by 2.7pp, with 1/5 of the estimated vote still outstanding. Prediction markets imply 67% probability of a Democratic win there, likely on an assumption that many of the remaining ballots reflect mail voting from Democratic-leaning areas. Democrats lead in Georgia with most votes counted, but the election looks likely to go to a run-off election on Dec. 6 as none of the candidates won more than 50% of the vote. If Democrats win Arizona and Nevada, they will have control of the Senate regardless of the Georgia result. If they lose either Arizona or Nevada, the Georgia result on Dec. 6 will determine the Senate majority.

While the GOP’s Kevin McCarthy is still the most likely candidate to become House Speaker, a tight majority likely means that conservatives will be able to extract additional concessions from him as they set the House rules for the coming Congress. It’s possible the speaker’s race could be thrown into chaos in the coming days. Republican leadership elections are next week. If trouble is brewing, those may get delayed.

All that being said, while Democrats outperformed expectations and Democratic Senate control would be a surprise, the end result nevertheless appears to be divided government and the policy implications are broadly similar to what would have been expected with Republican majorities in both chambers.

Goldman’s Alec Phillips lays out the key points:

• Senate control matters much less if Republicans have won the House majority. There are two general differences between a divided Congress and a Republican Congress. First, the Senate confirms presidential nominations with a simple majority, so continued Democratic control would limit Republican influence on President Biden’s nominations over the next two years. Second, passing legislation in a divided Congress would be harder than in a Republican Congress, though in either scenario bipartisan support would be needed (as President Biden could veto in either scenario, and Republicans would lack the 2/3 vote to override) so the amount of legislative activity could be similar.

• Reaching agreement on fiscal policy is likely to become more difficult. Congress will need to raise the debt limit by Q3 2023. Under a Republican House and Democratic Senate in 2011 and 2013, debt limit uncertainty disrupted financial markets and led to substantial spending cuts. A similar scenario could play out next year, though a Democratic Senate would make it less likely that a debt limit deal would involve spending cuts of the sort enacted in 2011. A legislative response to a potential recession would also be more difficult, we believe, as the House and Senate would likely pursue different approaches and the odds of gridlock would be somewhat higher than if Republicans controlled both chambers.

• Sector-focused policy changes would be even more limited under a divided Congress than under Republican control. Changes to energy or health policy—such as rolling back changes made in this year’s Inflation Reduction Act (IRA)—did not appear very likely under a Republican Congress and appear even less likely if control of Congress is split. For regulatory issues the difference between a Republican-majority and divided Congress is limited, as 60 votes are typically necessary in the Senate for regulatory (or any other non-fiscal) legislation and would have been elusive on most issues regardless of which party holds the Senate majority.

“Climate protesters are triggering widespread anger and signs of violence,” writes author and prominent critic of climate alarmism Michael Shellenberger. “And yet President Joe Biden, UN Secretary-General António Guterres, and other global elites are encouraging them, which is exceedingly dangerous and irresponsible.”

As a case in point, Shellenberger has highlighted a particularly disturbing recent video showing a young woman cry and scream into a camera while claiming she was essentially forced to climb onto an overhead gantry above a major freeway outside London over ‘climate change’ due to oil and gas extraction. It’s likely police or passersby may have initially thought she was suicidal. Police were soon forced to shut down the busy roadway over the safety issue, while emergency responders had to put on safety harnesses to clear the gantries. 

A 24 year-old woman shut down a major highway in UK just now. She says it’s for the climate but she’s obviously suffering from severe mental distress, narcissism, and grandiosity. “Why does it take young people like me?” she asks.

Climate fanatics are weaponizing mental illness pic.twitter.com/e7JCwlrrz6

— Michael Shellenberger (@ShellenbergerMD) November 7, 2022

Human resilience to disasters is rising and there is no scientific scenario for greater deaths from disasters due to climate change in the future.

The activists ignore these facts.

Shellenberger further describes the clear narcissism behind such stunts in his tweet thread…

The young woman is describing herself as a victim. The template for this was set by Greta Thunberg. It’s pathological. They are privileged elites financed by their some of the richest people in the world. They are throwing temper tantrums.

Statements like “Why does it take young people like me?” and Thunberg’s “I shouldn’t be up here. I should be back in school …How dare you? You have stolen my dreams and my childhood with your empty words” are grandiose, narcissistic, and manipulative. 

“This is an exceedingly dangerous phenomenon because narcissism is about a lack of empathy. It’s about entitlement. And it’s exploitative. ‘I’m a victim, so I’m a saint. I’m morally superior to you. I have a right because I have a grievance. You have an obligation towards me.’” 

“They don’t have any meaningful agendas. They just want to be heard. They want to garner attention. They want to become celebrities and famous. They want to control, They want to have power. They’re power-oriented power. They are entitled and aggressive.”

European authorities are actively encouraging these dangerously pathological behaviors by refusing to properly enforce laws and deter such crimes. The reason is because they support the cause. As such, they are, to some extent, working together.

The new PM of UK @RishiSunak encouraged these protests by re-instating a ban on fracking. The activists feel they are winning. They are emboldened. That’s why they are engaging in ever-more extreme behaviors. They must be shut down.

Watch as the climate activists express narcissism in the form of victimhood, grandiosity, and lack of empathy for the people impacted by their behaviors.

Reporter: “Isn’t the risk that you lose support from Londoners?”

Activist: “We don’t actually need support.” pic.twitter.com/Ux9sFwszdN

— Michael Shellenberger (@ShellenbergerMD) November 7, 2022

Let’s be clear about what’s occurring. Rich fanatics & the news media are weaponizing mental illness to advance a radical, anti-capitalist agenda. That’s textbook psychopathic behavior: lack of empathy, lack of control (panic), and anti-social behavior.

It was clear from the beginning of Thunberg’s stardom that she suffered from an anxiety disorder, and yet she, her handlers, and her parents all suggested that it stemmed from her profound concern over climate change. That turned out to be a lie. 

Thunberg’s mother, a textbook narcissist, admitted as much in 2020 when she decided she needed to publish her own book. The media lapped it all up without ever asking: is this healthy psychologically for the Thunbergs and the rest of the society?

Of course, it wasn’t. But the media egged her on and insisted that anybody who dared question whether it was ethical or healthy for the world’s most influential teenager to urge panic was a “climate denier” who was somehow threatened by a child. The gaslighting was grotesque. 

And they’re not done. Thunberg Inc. and the media are now delivering her up as a savior from the mass psychopathology they created. You couldn’t make it up. This isn’t just cynical it’s also inhumane. 

Any doubts that this is about psychopathology stemming from fanaticism & nihilism, not climate change, can be put to rest when you consider that the main demand of the narcissists is a ban on natural gas, which is the main reason UK emissions have been declining for decades.

The fanatical elites who are weaponizing mental illness are also waging class war. They are against cheap energy & industrial capitalism because they lift up ordinary people and close the gap with the elites, who want distance & inequality.

Naturally the elites need to claim the opposite, that they want an end to inequality and poverty, because everybody knows the quickest way to increase inequality and poverty is by making energy and food more expensive. Watch what they do, and demand. 

“Part and parcel of our narcissistic culture is black-and-white dichotomous thinking” known as “splitting.”

Wrote Thunberg, “Everyone says that there is no black-and-white issue, but I think this is. Either we go on as a civilization or we don’t.”

Adds @GingerCoy , “If a person laments that they are a victim, in this narcissistic age, it should be a red flag that they are likely a perpetrator.”

Such is the case with climate activists. 

They are some of the richest and most privileged people in the world, thanks to cheap and abundant fossil fuels. Some of them, like the heirs and heiresses to the Getty Oil and Rockefeller Oil fortunes, are more directly beneficiaries than others. 

And yet they are actively seeking to deprive others, both their fellow citizens and Africans, of those very fuels, as well as non-fossil sources of productive energy, like hydroelectric dams and nuclear power. 

The heirs to the Getty and Rockefeller say they are financing anti-fracking advocacy because fracking is bad for the climate, but it was always obvious that fracking, by creating cheap and abundant natural gas to replace coal, would reduce emissions and be great for the climate. 

The real and often unconscious reason that the heirs to the Getty and Rockefeller fortunes finance anti-fracking is the same reason that Putin consciously did: fracking threatens their economic wealth, social status, and political power. 

More oil and gas from fracking reduced the price, and thus the value, of existing oil and gas assets. It meant the old rich had to make way for the new rich in social circles. Think of how the country club snobs looked down on the Rodney Dangerfield character in “Caddyshack.” 

Anti-capitalism thus became the ideology of the old rich, or what sociologist Thorstein Veblen called “the leisure class.”

Veblen noted the importance of “conspicuous consumption,” the tendency of leisure class to flaunt their wealth through fancy dresses and jewelry. 

Today, elites flaunt their wealth through “luxury beliefs, ideas and opinions that confer status in the upper class while inflicting costs on the lower class,” eg we must make energy more expensive & return to less efficient, feudal modes of production, to protect Nature. 

The capitalist class, the people who built their wealth from scratch, tend to feel proud, not guilty, for what they built. They defend free markets as part of their legacy. Their children and grandchildren who inherit their wealth struggle with their purpose. 

They tend toward neuroticism because they know, at some level, that they did nothing to deserve their good fortune. They compensate for their feelings of inferiority by devising various ways to put down the new rich and their workers, such as by financing activists to block roads 

Why, in the end, are educated elites anti-capitalist? Because capitalism reduces their power.

If climate change didn’t exist, elites like Thunberg would find some other reason to be anti-capitalist, to demand a “Great Reset,” and to demand higher costs for energy and food.

The victims are working people trying to pay their energy bills, get to work, and survive the worst energy crisis in modern history.

They are also the young people whose anxiety disorders and narcissism are worsened by the fanatics.

We need to have compassion toward the people who are plainly in mental distress. They are in the grip of a fanatical ideology.

But we also need to impose strict consequences for their dangerous and pathological behaviors in order to deter others from doing the same.

*  *  *

PS: It is good to see the police cracking down. More of that, please.

“Operations like these come at a cost.

“Since Oct used more than 10,000 officer shifts to police Just Stop Oil protests.

“These are officers who would otherwise be dealing with issues that matter to local communities, such as knife crime and responding to burglaries.”

— Metropolitan Police Events (@MetPoliceEvents) November 6, 2022

The police make a good point: the more time they must spend dealing with the temper tantrums of climate narcissists, the less time they have to deal with other crimes.

Sam Bankan-Fried, aka Scam Bankrun-Fraud, may have seen some 95% of his paper “net worth” vanish overnight as his check-kiting ponzi scheme finally blew up – with CZ set to hammer the final blow as he walks away from the non-binding deal – but the CEO of FTX may have less to worry if he will make the Forbes 30 under 30 and be more concerned about doing 30 at some Federal Penitentiary.

According to Bloomberg, US regulators are investigating whether FTX.com “properly handled customer funds”, as well as its relationship with other parts of Sam Bankman-Fried’s crypto empire, such as the in-house hedge fund Alameda Research, which contrary to its name, did zero research. Worse, as head of R&D at CoinMetrics noted overnight, the circular fund flows between FTX and Alameda were clear to anyone who bothered to look.

1/ I found evidence that FTX might have provided a massive bailout for Alameda in Q2 which now came back to haunt them.

40 days ago, 173 million FTT tokens worth over 4B USD became active on-chain.

A rabbit hole appeared 🧵👇 pic.twitter.com/DtCyPspME0

— Lucas Nuzzi (@LucasNuzzi) November 8, 2022

The investigations by the SEC and the CFTC probes relate to the liquidity crisis at the trading platform that led to the sudden and unexpected collapse of the firm and the planned buyout of its non-US operations by Binance.  Regulators are also reportedly looking into the platform’s relationship with FTX.com’s American counterpart FTX US and Bankman-Fried’s trading house Alameda Research.

The good news here is that regulators won’t have to dig too deep: as we noted last night, Alameda’s own CEO (who is about 19-years-old) was kind enough to make a full admission of the fraud that was taking place at the firm just hours before the spectacular implosion.

curiously this tweet, let’s name it “Exhibit A” for obvious reasons, has not been deleted yet https://t.co/gfmnaGRBkv

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) November 9, 2022

The confusing news it that according to Bloomberg, the SEC’s inquiry began months ago as a probe into FTX US and its crypto-lending activities; how the SEC was unable to spot the glaring fraud here is troubling. Alternatively, it is possible that as the SEC dug deep and found out all sorts of rot, that it caused Alameda to panic and begin the slide into oblivion.

As for SBF and other FTX employees who just two days ago were busy showing off their brand new Miami office…

Do the windows open? https://t.co/0A7vDhOQxc

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) November 9, 2022

… they may find their new digs a tad less enjoyable as they transition from FTX to ADX.

Signaling a rare breakthrough at a moment that direct communications are almost non-existent, the US has confirmed this week that talks with Russia will move forward on maintenance and renewal of the single existing nuclear treaty between the two sides. In early August, Russia formally notified the Biden administration that it suspected inspections of its nuclear arsenal under the terms of the New START nuclear arms reduction treaty.

State Department spokesperson Ned Price announced that New START will be focus of bilateral talks in the near future. “We have agreed that the BCC [Bilateral Consultative Commission] will meet in the near future under the terms of the New START Treaty. The work of the BCC is confidential, but we do hope for a constructive session,” he said in a Tuesday press briefing.

The last meeting of the BCC was over a year ago, on October 2021, with central aspects of the treaty since stalled due to attempts of the US to resume nuclear arsenal inspections on Russian soil, which Moscow rebuffed.

Russia had complained that it was actually the US side which “deprive the Russian Federation of the right to conduct inspections on American territory.”

But the State Department cited the invasion of Ukraine and resulting sanctions, including travel restrictions, placed on Russian officials: “US sanctions and restrictive measures imposed as a result of Russia’s war against Ukraine are fully compatible” with the New START treaty, a prior statement had said.

Price claimed in his fresh Tuesday statements that “we believe deeply, around the world, in the transformative power and the importance of diplomacy and dialogue.” He added: “When it comes to Russia, of course, we are clear eyed, we’re realistic about what dialogue between the United States and Russia can – both what it can entail and what it can accomplish.”

“We – we have focused on risk reduction in these conversations, but we’ve been very intentional about seeing to it that the ability of our two countries to pass messages back and forth and to engage in dialogue has not, does not atrophy.”

Back in August, the Kremlin responded with anger after President Biden suggested that Russia is not a “willing partner” on nuclear arms control.

“But negotiation requires a willing partner operating in good faith. And Russia’s brutal and unprovoked aggression in Ukraine has shattered peace in Europe and constitutes an attack on fundamental tenets of international order. In this context, Russia should demonstrate that it is ready to resume work on nuclear arms control with the United States,” Biden had said on Aug.1st.

The resumption of talks is a hopeful sign after months of ratcheting nuclear rhetoric over Ukraine. Both sides have expressed willingness to avoid escalation on concerns that the nuclear armed superpowers could enter direct conflict. However, Moscow has condemned what it says is the US fueling a full-fledged proxy war utilizing Ukrainian forces.

By Michael Every of Rabobank

Lucy in the Markets with Diamonds

The market ‘action’ today is watching US midterm votes be counted, which even emerging markets do more smoothly; and US celebrities roll out on Twitter to back or decry conspiracies about why it is evidently incapable of doing the same.

Apart from that, markets will be echoing a Peanuts cartoon I recall vividly from my childhood (although I sadly failed to find it with a Google search this morning): changing the subject when proved wrong by facts. In said comic strip, Charlie Brown finally shows that some of opinionated Lucy’s statements are unequivocally wrong. Her reply, after a pause, is: “I know a girl who belongs to two book clubs.” A total non-sequitur as denial and shut down.

It’s deeply tragic that what made a 10-year-old laugh is, some four decades later, still the modus operandi for vast swathes of financial markets; but experience across the buy and sell side shows me it is absolutely the case.

Here are some not-too exaggerated Charlie Brown simple questions to markets and many Lucies’ diamond responses:

Charlie Brown: “Did you read that ‘China Downgrades Priority of Economy for Future Legislation’? Future legislation is no longer to revolve around economic development and adhere to “reform and opening up”, but instead now “to the leadership of the CCP,… to the guidance of Marxism-Leninism, Mao Zedong Thought, Deng Xiaoping Theory, the Theory of Three Represents, the Theory of Scientific Development, and Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era, to develop a system of socialist rule of law with Chinese characteristics.”

Lucy in equities: “Did you try cronuts? They’re so good they make me feel bullish.”

Charlie Brown: “Did you hear the rumour China might introduce wealth and inheritance taxes –as the UK may now raise the top rate of income tax, not cut it– and the tax authorities may focus on high net worth individuals (net worth RMB 10m and up) for special audits, and they might even have to pay a de facto ‘exit tax’ if they look like they are decamping abroad?”

Lucy in wealth management: “Wild Wonder is the colour of the year 2023. That makes me bullish.”   

Charlie Brown: “Did you see that China is sliding back into deflation even as the rest of the world see high inflation? PPI was -1.3% y-o-y and CPI down to just 2.1%. Doesn’t that imply a much lower CNY to try to export its way out? Isn’t that negative for US dollar valuations of Chinese earnings? Won’t other EM exporter FX get dragged down too? Won’t that make paying for dollar-priced commodity imports harder? Doesn’t that also mean the West faces an imminent choice between deepening reliance on Chinese supply chains again, or putting up tariffs in response slash accelerating friend-shoring? Will they prioritise near-term lower inflation over geoeconomic resilience/security despite rising geopolitical tensions?”

Lucy in markets: “How do you feel about the World Cup being in Qatar? I see it as bullish EM.”

Charlie Brown: “On which note, did you see Xi Jinping state China’s security has been increasingly unstable and uncertain, and that it will comprehensively strengthen its military training and preparation for any war?”

Lucy in a Western corporation in China: “Car sales in October were up. I remain bullish.”

Charlie Brown: “Japan is now having to sell Treasuries to fund the FX intervention keeping its yields low. Doesn’t that mean more upward pressure on yields in other parts of other curves? Isn’t there a risk inflation goes down from here but stays around 3-4% for years due to structural supply-side issues?”

Lucy in fixed income: “Star Trek III is better than Star Trek II because it’s got Klingons. That, and this being transitory, makes me bullish.”

Charlie Brown: “Did you see that the French Minister of Economy has stated a “strong response” is required against American green policy to ensure Europe keeps industrial production? That must mean WTO-defying protectionism, and so going green will also mean going more mercantilist. It also therefore means an EU-US trade war when Europe is the net exporter, and as the EU relies on US gas and US guns. How does this add up?”

Lucy in Europe: “Strategic autonomy slash free markets slash Europe slash ESG. I remain bullish.”   

Charlie Brown: “FTX is blowing up, and Binance is buying them, and crypto is collapsing again. Didn’t they just run a Super Bowl ad? If they can go, who is next?”

Lucy in Crypto: “I eat one protein bar daily, but on Saturday I have two. That makes me bullish.”

Okay, not all of these are diamonds, but you get the idea on how much so many Lucies’ heads are up in the sky right now.

Now back to watching Americans struggle to count lots of small pieces of paper as a precursor to more ‘Lucy-ness’ to come .