Authored by Michael Pento,

This latest bear-market bounce was predicated on good seasonality, the hopes for a typical mid-term election boost, and the rumors of a Fed pivot.

Wall Street always finds a narrative for rallies in a bear market. But the negative economic and liquidity cycles remain unchanged: The Fed is hiking rates into a recession. Powell may have done his last 75bp rate hike on November 2nd. But another 50bp hike is likely coming in December, and then the regular 25bp variety is coming in February. Meanwhile, $95 billion per month of Quantitative Tightening is rapidly destroying the money supply.

That is what Wall Street wants you to believe is a Pivot. The Fed may indeed downshift to a slower pace of rate hikes come December. However, it will maintain a restrictive Fed Funds Rate (FFR) of nearly 5% for multiple months once that level is achieved. Powell made that point very clear during his latest FOMC press conference. The FFR will be higher than they thought in September. Also, Chair Powell said it is extremely premature to think about any kind of rate-hiking pause.

So, where does this leave the stock market? Stocks do not bottom when equities valuations equal 150% of the overall economy (TMC/GDP). During the 2000 recession, the NASDAQ bottomed at 71% TMC/GDP, down from 142% at the high. The Great Recession saw stocks bottom at 45% TMC/GDP, down from 105%. Even during the Pandemic recession, TMC/GDP fell from 152% to 120%. All those bottoms were associated with a Fed that was rapidly cutting interest rates to 1% or below. And in the case of 2008 & 2020 recessions, the Fed was engaged in the massive money printing scheme known as Quantitative Easing as well. Market bottoms do not occur just because the Fed reduces the pace of rate hikes from 75bp to 50bp increments. Every Recession in the past has been dealt with by massive monetary and fiscal stimuli. But with inflation at close to a record high, it is simply tying the government’s hands.

And, please do not think that government and central banks can automatically boost asset prices at will—no matter how hard they try. For example, China’s Shanghai stock exchange is still down 50% from its 2007 peak; and Japan’s NIKKEI Dow is down 30% from its top reached 33 years ago. Those figures are in nominal terms!

Let us look at some of the latest economic data to affirm that GDP is getting weaker by the day and point to a recession that is going to be brutal: 37% of small companies in the US, which employ half of all workers, can no longer pay their rent. Amazon, the largest online retailer in America, missed on Q3 revenue and warned on 4th Quarter sales, which were guided down to be the slowest growth for the company on record. New Home Mortgage applications fell by 41% year over year, just as mortgage rates are now the highest in 20 years—above 7% and rising. And the ISM Services Sector Business survey showed that even though the economy slowed in October from the previous month, prices are still increasing at a faster rate.

The consumer is faltering, and yet Fed Chair Powell told Wall Street at his latest press conference that he is indeed pivoting…but it is to be more hawkish. There is a steep recession just ahead, and there is nothing the Fed can do to stop it. It is not a choice. If Powell were to undergo a genuine dovish pivot back towards ZIRP and QE at this point, it would cause inflation to run intractable. Hence, long-term interest rates would soon skyrocket and render the government and the economy insolvent. Therefore, after the initial reflexive surge in stock prices upon any such announcement of a rate pause/cut or return to QE, asset prices would soon crash anyway; and the Fed would be left with a much more difficult inflation situation to deal with down the road. Therefore, there will be no such dovish pivot anytime soon, just a freezing of the FFR at a very high level relative to the past 14 years. Along with a record dose of QT.

Given the extent of asset bubbles and level of debt in the economy, a depression is a real possibility. And an equity market collapse from these prices is still in the cards. If the S&P 500 were to just return to a historically-lofty 100% TMC/GDP, it would entail a decline of another 30%. That would be in addition to the losses already suffered. You do not have to tolerate another drubbing like this in your buy-and-hold 60/40 portfolio. Active management has become mandatory in this boom/bust world that is completely controlled by feckless central bankers.

This morning’s price action has a whiff of what happened two weeks ago when a relentless barrage of bad earnings reports by tech giants propelled stocks higher during the latest bear market meltup, amid speculation the worst news is priced in. Well, after last week’s FOMC mauling, risk has once again started to meltup following Friday’s stark divergence between the “good” payrolls number and “catastrophic” employment data, sending stocks sharply higher and the dollar sliding.

And while some may have expected the selling to return after Sunday’s latest cut to high end iPhone 14 shipping forecasts, which Apple blamed on China but which appears to have been driven as much by a decline in demand and sent AAPL shares down 2%, this morning US stock futures have reversed earlier losses of more than 1% and looking to extend Friday’s rebound, as investor attention turns to the latest inflation report and the midterm elections later this week. At 7:30am ET, contracts on the Nasdaq 100 were up 0.4% after earlier sliding as much as 1.3% as Chinese officials reiterated their intention to “unswervingly” stick to a Covid Zero approach; S&P 500 futures also reversed early declines to rise 0.4%. The benchmark had snapped a four-day slump on Friday following a mixed jobs report. The dollar reversed earlier gains; while Monday’s partial gains in Treasuries were underpinned by a 4-basis point drop in the 10-year yield. The two-year rate, more sensitive to monetary policy, remained higher around the 4.68% level.

Among individual movers in premarket trading, Facebook parent Meta (which really should change its name back already) rose following a report that it is planning to start cutting thousands of jobs this week, about a week after we said it should do that immediately.

In a normal world METHA would announce 20% layoffs after the close

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) October 27, 2022

As noted above, Apple dropped after the company reduced the outlook for shipments of its latest premium iPhone due to China lockdowns. Chinese stocks listed in the US are on track to extend their rally to a fifth day even even though health authorities repeated their strict adherence to the country’s Covid Zero policies. Alibaba rose 1.3% in premarket trading, JD.com +1.4%, Baidu +2.1%, Li Auto +3.1%, XPeng +5.1%. Here are the other notable premarket movers:

• Peabody Energy shares rise as much a 6% in premarket trading, after the US coal miner and Australia’s Coronado Global Resources ended merger talks.
• Activision Blizzard shares fall 0.8% in US premarket trading after a NY Post report that Microsoft’s takeover of the entertainment software firm was facing heightened scrutiny from regulators, with some Activision insiders fretting that the transaction could crumble.
• Redfin shares slide 8% as Oppenheimer cut the real estate brokerage to underperform, saying its core business model is “fundamentally flawed,” and putting a street-low $1.30 PT on the stock.
• Keep an eye on Estee Lauder (EL US) as the stock was downgraded to hold from buy at Berenberg, which also cuts its price target, saying the cosmetics maker lacks visibility on a potential recovery.
• Keep an eye on Ruth’s Hospitality after the stock was downgraded to market perform from strong buy at Raymond James, with the broker expecting higher inflation to limit earnings per share growth in 2023.

As BBG notes, US equities have tried to recover in the fourth quarter after slumping this year as investors wagered that signs of peaking in inflation would allow the Federal Reserve to slow the pace of rate hikes. The next clue will come on Thursday, with October’s consumer price index report expected to show a slight cooling in prices from the previous month.

“Markets are essentially in a struggle between people who argue the Fed has hiked rates too much and should pivot and the other group that says inflation needs to be fought harder and the Fed needs to hike more,” said Joachim Klement, head of strategy, accounting and sustainability at Liberum Capital. Victoria Scholar of Interactive Investor, agreed, saying she expects stock volatility to continue as markets face “an eclectic mix of drivers,” including the midterm elections on Tuesday.

Morgan Stanley’s in house permabear Mike Wilson turned even more bullish on Monday saying investors should stay bullish on equities ahead of the midterms. Polls pointing to Republicans winning at least one chamber of Congress provide a potential catalyst for lower bond yields and higher equity prices, which would be enough to keep the bear-market rally going, they said. Meanwhile, the permabulls at JPMorgan said the same thing they have said since Jan 1 – buy the dip because a potential peak in bond yields and “very downbeat” sentiment may support stocks.

The bout of optimism outweighs, for the moment, the Federal Reserve’s resolute campaign against price surges, signs of stress in US corporate performance and China’s announcement it will “unswervingly” adhere to current Covid Zero policy.  But corporate earnings are casting a dampener on sentiment as margins reel from the impact of high inflation. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. strategists lowered their S&P 500 profit estimates for each year until 2024, saying margin contraction in the third quarter signals more pain ahead.

European stocks and US futures pare earlier declines as dollar extends declines beyond Friday’s lows. Euro Stoxx 50 rises 0.5%. Travel, miners and autos are the strongest performing sectors in Europe. DAX outperforms peers, adding 0.7%, FTSE 100 is flat, underperforming peers. Here are some of the biggest European movers today:

• Telecom Italia rises as much as 8.2% to its highest intraday level since mid August following a report that Vivendi, the biggest shareholder in the phone operator, is open to discussions with the Italian government on creating a single land-line phone network.
• Ryanair shares rise as much as 4.9% as the low-cost airline flagged strong bookings through next summer, shrugging off impact from a potential recession in Europe.
• PostNL rises as much as 5.4% after the company notes that 4Q will be its strongest quarter, as it takes mitigating actions amid a macroeconomic environment that has deteriorated.
• Flutter Entertainment shares rise as much as 5.4% in Dublin after an arbitrator told Fox Corp. that exercising its option to acquire an 18.6% stake in sports-betting giant FanDuel, which is majority owned by Flutter, would cost it at least $3.72b.
• GSK falls as much as 3.3% after its antibody blood cancer drug Blenrep failed its confirmatory phase 3 trial. Citi says the news is likely to result in the drug being taken off the market in the US and the EU, expressing “minimal” expectations for commercial success going ahead.
• Novozymes falls as much as 3.3% as Credit Suisse flags lower earnings and peer multiples for the world’s largest maker of industrial enzymes.
• UniCredit shares declined as much as 4.2% following a FT report on Nov. 6 that the ECB had clashed with the Italian lender over its distribution plans and its Russia presence. Shares were 3% down in early trading Monday, the worst performer on the Stoxx 600 Banks Index.
• Kingfisher falls as much as 3.6% as it was cut to neutral from outperform and PT trimmed to 247p from 305p at Credit Suisse on macro risks facing the DIY retailer.

Earlier in the session, Asia stocks climbed as traders snapped up Chinese stocks in hopes of an eventual reopening and as US bond yields slipped. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index advanced as much as 1.8% to the highest in a month, led by materials and technology stocks. China’s tech shares extended their rally from Friday, which was spurred by reported progress in efforts to prevent the delisting of Chinese companies from US bourses.  Hong Kong topped gains in the region even though Chinese officials stuck to their Covid Zero approach over the weekend, as investors said extreme pessimism had already been priced into Greater China markets. Most gauges across Asia also advanced after 10-year Treasury yields edged lower. Supporting sentiment, the dollar slipped after a bigger-than-expected increase in the US unemployment rate spurred hope the Federal Reserve may eventually slow the pace of rate hikes. Vietnam’s shares, however, fell to their lowest in two years.

Japanese stocks climbed, as strong corporate earnings boosted investor sentiment while the market continued to look for clues on when the Federal Reserve’s monetary tightening may subside. The Topix rose 1% to close at 1,934.09, while the Nikkei advanced 1.2% to 27,527.64. Keyence Corp. contributed the most to the Topix Index gain, increasing 1.9%. Out of 2,165 stocks in the index, 1,520 rose and 558 fell, while 87 were unchanged. “Overall there there are more upward revisions,” said Mamoru Shimode, chief strategist at Resona Asset Management, regarding recent earnings reports. “The market is still looking six months to a year ahead, so the focus is gradually shifting” to results for the next fiscal year.

Australian stocks also extended gains with the S&P/ASX 200 index rising 0.6% to close at 6,933.70, extending gains for a second session, boosted by an advance in mining and energy shares.  The mining sector climbed to the highest in a month, after tracking Friday’s gains in commodity prices as US jobs data, a softer dollar and China reopening hopes boosted materials last week. In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index rose 0.5% to 11,290.34.

Investors will focus on whether the subtle relaxation of China’s Covid Zero policy will gather momentum in the coming weeks, Saxo Capital Markets strategists wrote in a note. “This will be key not just for mainland and HK markets, but also for commodity markets.” Last week’s rally in Chinese shares, the biggest in years, helped lift Asia’s equity benchmark by more than 6% from an October trough. Whether that trend will continue depends on China’s tone on lockdowns and vaccinations. Investors will also keep an eye on US inflation data expected on Thursday

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index swung to a 0.3% loss after earlier rising by as much as 0.5%, as the greenback fell against most of its Group-of-10 peers. NZD and AUD are the weakest performers in G-10 FX, SEK and GBP outperform.

• The euro rose above parity before paring gains. European bond yields were mostly lower as pricing for central major bank hikes were pared. Bund yields fell by up to 3bps while Italian yields fell by up to 5bps
• The pound led G-10 gains after erasing earlier losses against the dollar. Gilt yields fell on the belly of the curve. The BOE is set to sell medium-maturity gilts held under its asset purchase facility later Monday. UK house prices fell at the sharpest pace in almost two years as rising mortgage rates and a gloomy outlook for the economy depressed demand
• The New Zealand and Australian dollars pared losses after earlier dropping by more than 1% in a possible reflection of disappointment over the prospects of China easing its Covid-Zero stance
• The yen pared losses as the the dollar lost traction in early European trading

In rates, Treasuries are mixed with the curve flatter into early US session as front-end cheapens led by losses in front-end of the German curve. Stocks rally and dollar extends Friday’s slide. 10-year yields are around 4.13%, richer by ~3bp on the day, outperforming bunds and gilts by 1bp and 4bp in the sector; long-end gains flatten 2s10s by 4bp, 5s30s by 3bp. Dollar issuance slate empty so far; desks expect $25b to $30b of new debt this week, front- loaded ahead of CPI and Friday’s market close for US Veterans Day. Bunds, gilts and USTs 10-year yields all decline about 1 basis point as bonds pare losses. Peripheral spreads tighten to Germany with 10y BTP/Bund narrowing 3.1bps to 213.4bps.

In commodities, WTI trades within Friday’s range, falling 0.6% to near $92; WTI and Brent futures have trimmed losses seen in wake of China sticking to its COVID policy over the weekend. Kuwait appointed Ahmed Jaber al-Aydan as the new CEO of Kuwait Oil Company and Wadha al-Khateeb as CEO of Kuwait National Petroleum Company, while new leaders were also appointed for Kuwait Integrated Petroleum Industries Company and other state companies in the energy sector, according to Reuters. Kuwait’s KPC aims to export its first oil product cargo from its 615k Al Zour refinery by mid-November, according to Reuters sources. Spot gold reversed earlier losses and climbed back above USD 1,675/oz after printing a base at around USD 1,665/oz earlier today. Base metals have also trimmed earlier losses amid the improvement in risk appetite and decline in the Buck, with 3M LME copper re-eyeing USD 8,000/t to the upside after forfeiting the level overnight.

Bitcoin is under modest pressure though pivots the mid-point of a sub-USD 1/k range which itself is a similar magnitude above the USD 20k mark.

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 futures up 0.3% to 3,788.25
• STOXX Europe 600 up 0.4% to 418.47
• MXAP up 1.7% to 142.45
• MXAPJ up 1.8% to 459.88
• Nikkei up 1.2% to 27,527.64
• Topix up 1.0% to 1,934.09
• Hang Seng Index up 2.7% to 16,595.91
• Shanghai Composite up 0.2% to 3,077.82
• Sensex up 0.3% to 61,153.50
• Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.6% to 6,933.71
• Kospi up 1.0% to 2,371.79
• German 10Y yield down 0.7% to 2.28%
• Euro up 0.3% to $0.9986
• Brent Futures down 0.3% to $98.24/bbl
• Gold spot down 0.2% to $1,679.09
• U.S. Dollar Index down 0.35% to 110.49

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

• The Federal Reserve “hasn’t accomplished anything” in loosening the US labor market even after four consecutive 75-basis-point hikes, former New York Fed President Bill Dudley said
• The ECB should keep raising interest rates, even at a reduced pace, until inflation excluding energy and food prices starts to ease, Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau said
• Chancellor Jeremy Hunt is drawing up plans for tax increases and public spending cuts worth up to £54bn a year to fill the black hole in the UK public finances, according to allies of Britain’s chancellor, the FT reported
• European households are paying more than ever for their electricity and natural gas, even as governments spend billions to shield consumers from the energy crisis
• China’s total debt as a percentage of gross domestic product climbed to new record high of 272.1% in the third quarter, surpassing the previous record of 271% just a quarter ago, data compiled by Bloomberg showed
• The BOJ can end up holding more than 100% of benchmark debt as its ownership doesn’t fall even when it sells the securities to market participants using repurchase agreements
• President Joe Biden’s national security adviser and senior Kremlin aides have held private talks in recent months to reduce the risk of a broader conflict over Ukraine, the Wall Street Journal reported. A peace settlement wasn’t a goal of the discussions, according to the report

APAC stocks mostly gained as investors continued to pile on the reopening bets despite China ‘unswervingly’ maintaining its COVID approach, while the region also shrugged off disappointing Chinese trade data. ASX 200 was higher as strength in the commodity-related and consumer sectors atoned for the weakness in tech and financials with the latter not helped by Westpac’s earnings which showed a decline in cash profit and revenue. Nikkei 225 strengthened from the open and climbed above the 27,500 level with the index unfazed by the weak earnings releases from the likes of Sharp and SoftBank Corp. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp recovered from opening losses in which the Hong Kong benchmark briefly surged by more than 3% amid strength in property names and a continued tech rally, while the mainland index was less decisive amid disappointing Chinese trade data and after China stuck to its strict COVID policy, as well as reported its largest number of daily infections in 6 months.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

• China health commission spokesman said China will not waver in preventing a COVID rebound and in the dynamic clearing of cases as soon as they emerge, while it did not make adjustments to anti-COVID protocols and a China disease control official said they are to guide localities to continue strengthening COVID vaccination of the elderly. Furthermore, a Peking University infectious disease expert said the current prevention strategy is still able to control COVID despite the high transmissibility of variants and asymptomatic carriers, although an Education Ministry official noted that it is necessary to prevent excessive epidemic prevention and not add extra layers of measures, according to Reuters.
• Beijing City is set to improve COVID rules for people entering the city, but vows to stick to COVID-Zero policy, according to a Beijing Official cited by Bloomberg.
• Haizhu district of Guangzhou, China is to extend COVID restrictionsuntil November 11th, via Bloomberg.
•  
• China’s Zhengzhou city is taking steps to improve the precision of epidemic control measures after being criticised for a one size fits all approach and the city government apologised for the problems in the latest COVID fight, while it vowed to implement social management and control measures in a precise manner to avoid simply locking down communities.
• China’s new daily COVID-19 cases were rose to the highest in six months with the country reporting 5,436 new cases on Sunday, according to Bloomberg.
• PBoC Deputy Governor Fan Yifei, who is a key driver of the digital yuan transition, was detained for investigation and is suspected of serious violations of discipline and law, according to SCMP.
• Japan’s government releases a statement on the US inflation Reduction Act in which it stated that the requirement of EV tax credits is not consistent with the US and Japanese governments’ shared policy to work with allies and like-minded partners to build resilient supply chains. Japan added that if the IRA would be implemented as it is to provide discriminatory incentives, it is possible that Japanese automakers will hesitate to make further investments towards the electrification of vehicles, according to Reuters.
• Japan is reportedly to fund its extra budget with bond issuance of JPY 22.9tln, via Bloomberg citing documents.

Top Asian News

Major bourses in Europe kicked off the session with mild losses across the board but the downside faded within the first hour of trade. Sectors are mostly firmer and have experienced a turnaround since the cash open – with defensives now largely towards the bottom of the bunch. US equity futures have also moved into the green after posting mild losses overnight and in the run-up to the European cash open. IATA September update: Total Traffic +57% YY; International Traffic +122% YY. All markets reported strong growth, led by APAC.

Top European News

• UK PM Sunak and Chancellor Hunt are to announce a stealth tax raid on pensions later this month, according to The Telegraph. It was also reported the Chancellor is set to outline GBP 60bln in tax and spending cuts with early drafts of the autumn statement containing plans for up to GBP 35bln of spending cuts and GBP up to GBP 25bln on tax increases, according to The Guardian.
• UK PM Sunak warned that people cannot expect the state to “fix every problem” and vowed to regain the trust of voters by being honest about the scale of the economic difficulties ahead, according to The Times.
• UK PM Sunak is reportedly under pressure regarding bullying claims concerning one of his closest political allies with the opposition Labour party calling for an independent investigation of allegations of bullying by Sir Gavin Williamson who was appointed as Minister of State without Portfolio last month, according to FT.
• UK stamp duty in Q3 rose to a record high of GBP 3.6bln although property market analysts warned the trend will reverse as house prices decline, according to FT.
• UK steel industry warned that it needs state aid to survive a green transition with two large producers calling for the government to match the support offered to suppliers across Europe, according to FT.
• Traders have pointed to a squeeze in the “repo” market and short-dated gilts, according to The Times and The Telegraph.
• ECB and UniCredit (UCG IM) are reported to clash regarding capital plans and Russia presence with tensions building amid the Italian lender’s aggressive strategy to overhaul lending operations, according to FT.
• Germany is to allocate EUR 83.3bln or 42% of a major protection scheme that was launched in October to finance a cap on gas and power prices next year, according to Reuters.
• ECB’s Villeroy said shouldn’t stop rate hikes as long as underlying inflation has not clearly peaked, adds we are not far from the neutral rate, beyond which the hiking pace could be more flexible and slower, according to Irish Times.

FX

• DXY has faded significantly from an initial rebound to 111.28 highs; however, this was shortlived amid renewed China/COVID reopening chatter, in its wake the DXY has slipped to a 110.33 low.
• Despite this, performance for peers is fairly mixed with APAC FX lagging and European FX benefitting from the USD moves.
• At the top-end, Cable has moved to within circa. 30pips of the 1.15 mark with EUR similarly bid, though has failed to sustain brief momentum above parity.
• Antipodeans, CAD and JPY are modestly pressured/narrowly mixed against the USD, and have been fairly choppy within 0.6404-77, 1.3466 to 1.3554 & 147.57-146.58 parameters for the AUD, CAD & JPY respectively.

Fixed Income

• Core counterparts have spent the morning under pressure amid the increasingly constructive risk tone; however, this has eased and USTs are now essentially unchanged.
• In the EZ, Bunds have seemingly derived encouragement from the 136.00 handle holding and have since breached 137.00.
• Gilts have been the slim outperformer; however, as the clock ticks down to the latest QT operation in the medium-term, this has eased to near unchanged around 101.30

Commodities

• WTI and Brent futures have trimmed losses seen in wake of China sticking to its COVID policy over the weekend.
• Kuwait appointed Ahmed Jaber al-Aydan as the new CEO of Kuwait Oil Company and Wadha al-Khateeb as CEO of Kuwait National Petroleum Company, while new leaders were also appointed for Kuwait Integrated Petroleum Industries Company and other state companies in the energy sector, according to Reuters.
• Kuwait’s KPC aims to export its first oil product cargo from its 615k Al Zour refinery by mid-November, according to Reuters sources.
• Spot gold reversed earlier losses and climbed back above USD 1,675/oz after printing a base at around USD 1,665/oz earlier today.
• Base metals have also trimmed earlier losses amid the improvement in risk appetite and decline in the Buck, with 3M LME copper re-eyeing USD 8,000/t to the upside after forfeiting the level overnight.

Geopolitical

• Ukrainian President Zelensky said Russian forces are suffering serious losses in the east and Russia is readying new attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure, particularly energy, according to Reuters. There were also separate reports that Zelensky said Iran lied about sending a limited number of drones to Russia and he noted that Kyiv forces were shooting down at least 10 of them daily.
• Ukrainian authorities in Kyiv have begun planning for a complete blackout which would require the evacuation of 3mln residents and are establishing 1,000 heating centres although it was noted that the situation was currently manageable, according to NYT.
• Ukrainian forces damaged the Russian-held Nova Kakhova dam in a HIMARS strike, according to an emergency services representative cited by TASS.
• US National Security Adviser Sullivan held confidential discussions with Russian counterparts in recent months in an effort to reduce the risk of a broader conflict over Ukraine and to warn about the use of nuclear or other weapons of mass destruction, according to WSJ. On this, the Kremlin declined to comment.
• China’s President Xi to visit Saudi Arabia before end-2022, via WSJ; tentatively scheduled for the second week of December.

US Event Calendar

• 15:00: Sept. Consumer Credit, est. $30b, prior $32.2b

Central Banks

• 15:40: Fed’s Collins and Mester Speak at Women in Economics…
• 18:00: Fed’s Barkin Speaks at Event on Inflation

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

The warm weather here in Europe continues to be great news for energy storage preservation across the continent. However, there has been one big causality. Me! Over the weekend I had horrible hay fever. I’ve no idea what caused it, but I couldn’t stop sneezing in a manner only consistent with an allergy. I usually get it bad from late January to April but this is the first time ever in November. If anyone has had similar experiences, please let me know so we can swap notes and solutions/remedies.

As I splutter into a new week, it feels odd to say that US mid-terms (tomorrow) might be more important than US CPI (Thursday), so I won’t! However, history suggests the mid-terms are a big influence on markets as they always seem to rally once mid-terms (or Presidential elections) are out the way. Although regular readers should be in little doubt that my base case is that 2023 is going to be a bad year for the global economy and risk, in every 12-month period post mid-terms over the last century, the equity market has always gone up with the inflexion point being immediately after mid-terms.

While I think the US recession of 2023 will overpower that historical track record, Tuesday being out the way could be a catalyst for a more positive short-term period. So a big moment. Before we preview these two events in more detail, elsewhere in the US this week the highlight will probably be the University of Michigan survey out on Friday with the latest inflation expectations series. It’s a light week for data outside of that. There is plenty of Fed speak so see that in our day-by-day calendar at the end as usual. You’ll also see from that that Lagarde speaks today.

Other important data releases in other parts of the globe will feature trade balances for key global economies as well as CPI and PPI data for China (Wednesday). Here in Europe, GDP from the UK (Friday) and industrial production data from Germany (today) will be in focus. In earnings, Berkshire Hathaway, Disney, Occidental, adidas and BioNTech will be among the companies reporting. Elsewhere, COP27 kicked off yesterday so we’ll likely see plenty of headlines from that.

Asian equity markets are rallying this morning following the broadly positive cues from global markets on Friday. Across the region, the Hang Seng (+3.42%) is outperforming, after quickly reversing its morning losses, followed by the Nikkei (+1.32%) and the KOSPI (+1.00%). Elsewhere, mainland Chinese equities are gaining traction with the Shanghai Composite (+0.46%) and the CSI (+0.49%) both in the green after trading broadly lower in early trade as Chinese health officials indicated that it would stick to its strict zero-Covid policy (more below). In overnight trading, US stock futures are slightly lower with contracts on the S&P 500 (-0.17%) and NASDAQ 100 (-0.25%) both dipping.

Early morning data showed that China exports as well as imports unexpectedly contracted simultaneously for the first time since May 2020 as elevated inflation and rising interest rates hurt global demand. Outbound shipments declined (-0.3% y/y) in October (v/s +4.5% expected) after a +5.7% increase in September while inbound shipments fell (-0.7% y/y) following a +0.3% gain in the previous month. Meanwhile, the overall trade surplus slightly widened to +$85.15 billion (v/s +$84.74 billion in September, but missing a forecast of $95.97 billion).

Over the weekend, the Chinese government reiterated that they would stick “unswervingly” to their ‘zero-tolerance Covid’ strategy, following several days of speculation to the contrary. Staying on China, Apple has warned that it is anticipating lower shipments of its high-end iPhone 14 models with customers experiencing longer wait times because of Covid-19 restrictions at its primary assembly plant in Zhengzhou, thus dampening the company’s sales outlook for the year-end holiday season. There also seems to be a softer demand element to it too.

Lastly, on overnight stories, the WSJ has reported that the US national security advisor has been having secret talks with senior Kremlin officials in recent months to try to ensure that the conflict doesn’t move up to the next level. There is no suggestion that a route to peace has been discussed but it shows there are high level diplomatic discussions though.

Onto more details of this week now. Looking first at tomorrow’s midterms, our economists’ base case is that Republicans will take the House but Democrats will maintain their slim majority in the Senate, although the latter is a close call. It is highly unlikely that either party will achieve a two-thirds majority in Congress, thus effectively maintaining President Biden’s veto power. Currently, FiveThirtyEight’s model gives the Republicans a 54% chance of winning the Senate and 82% for the House. Their chance of winning both is 53%. See our economist’s midterms preview here. They will be hosting a zoom webinar on Wednesday to review the results and implications for the economic outlook. To register please click here.

With regards to US CPI on Thursday, our economists believe energy will boost the headline (DB forecast at +0.62% vs. +0.39% previously. Consensus +0.6%). Last month core surprised on the upside (+0.6% MoM, vs +0.4% consensus) so this month’s reading will get the most focus (DB at +0.46% vs. +0.58% previously. Consensus +0.5%). In terms of YoY, DB expect headline to dip -0.2pp and core -0.1pp to 8.0% (consensus 7.9%) and 6.5%, respectively.

In terms of corporate earnings, there will be a couple of corporate heavyweights reporting this week even with around 85% of the S&P 500 index having now released Q3 results. The highlights are likely Disney and Occidental (tomorrow) but we also have Activision Blizzard, Lyft (today) and Roblox (Wednesday) in tech and BioNTech (today), adidas (Wednesday), AstraZeneca (Thursday) and SoftBank (Friday) elsewhere.

Recapping last week now and the dovish pivot trade pivoted one way and the other across the week but ultimately Powell’s FOMC press conference put the hawks back in the ascendency.

Treasury yields moved higher and a fresh round of curve flattening materialised. 2yr Treasury yields gained +24.4bps over the week (-5.5bps Friday) while 10yr yields climbed +14.6bps (+1.2bps Friday). Adding evidence to Chair Powell’s main arguments, the employment situation report out of the US on Friday painted a still robust picture of the US labour market, where +261k jobs were added (vs. +193k expected), while average hourly earnings ticked up to +0.4% (vs. +0.3%). Labour force participation tightened, dropping to 62.2% (vs. 62.3%), while unemployment actually increased slightly to a still-tight 3.7% (vs. 3.6%). Elsewhere, the BoE painted a much more dovish outlook as they hiked 75bps, which led to a much different curve shape, as 2yr gilt yields fell -19.1bps (-2.5bps Friday) and 10yr yields were ‘only’ +5.9bps higher (+1.6bps Friday). The bund curve split the difference between the US and UK moves and moved in parallel, with 2yrs climbing +18.9bps (+4.3bps Friday) and 10yrs +19.2bps higher (+5.0bps Friday).

The pivot unwind trade showed up in equity prices, too, where the S&P 500 tumbled -3.34% (+1.36% Friday) and the tech-heavy NASDAQ bore the brunt of a hawkish Chair by falling -5.65% (+1.28% Friday). European equities, meanwhile, managed to finish up over the week, with the STOXX 600 gaining +1.51% (+1.81% Friday) and the DAX +1.63% higher (+2.51% Friday). As you can see, a lot of those gains took place on Friday following headlines that China was considering easing its Covid restrictions, potentially unleashing a major engine of global growth. In turn, Brent crude oil prices also rallied hard to finish the week +3.11% (+4.12% Friday). Over the week, the Shanghai Composite climbed +5.31%, with the Hang Seng +8.73%.

Authored by MN Gordon via EconomicPrism.com,

The vast herd of investors are a deluded crowd.  Following the Federal Reserve’s much anticipated 75 basis point rate hike on Wednesday the major stock market indexes jumped upward.

Optimistic investors keyed in on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement and, in particular, the remark that the Fed, “will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation and economic and financial developments.”

Somehow this was perceived as being the precursor to a policy pivot.  Yet during the post-FOMC statement press conference, Powell clarified that, “It’s very premature to be thinking about pausing.”

Stocks then fell off a cliff.  The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) closing out the day with a loss of 505 points.

Will there be a pivot, pause, or no pivot?  This is the wrong question to be asking.  The reality is the major stock market indexes have much farther to fall before the bear market is over, regardless of if the Fed pivots anytime soon.

If you recall, the Fed began cutting interest rates in September of 2007.  Yet the stock market didn’t bottom out until March of 2009.  Similarly, the Fed began cutting interest rates in January of 2001.  Still, the stock market didn’t bottom out until October of 2002.

Thus, using these two most recent bear markets as a guide, once the Fed finally begins cutting interest rates, which would come after inflation has begun to abate and a period of interest rate pause, the stock market will continue to fall for another 18 to 22 months.

In other words, this bear market may not bottom out until well into 2025.  What’s more, the entire dollar based financial system will likely blow up sometime beforehand.

How’s that for a grim outlook?

Investors, as you can see, are incredibly twisted up by the Fed’s money games, and how they’ve enhanced the peaks and valleys of the stock market. 

As for workers and voters, many don’t have a clue as to the ramifications for the real, Main Street economy. 

Here’s why…

No Clue

Fiscal policy, as opposed to monetary policy, is more readily understood by workers and voters.  Income taxes, budget deficits, the national debt. 

These are all real things the average person of moderate means and mental capacity can grasp a hold of, should they care to.

The effects of zero interest rate policy (ZIRP) or quantitative easing (QE), however, are less apparent to the casual observer.  Politicians may make superficial remarks about consumer price inflation if they think it will score points with voters.  But actual currency debasement policies are rarely mentioned.

Certainly, workers experience the wild booms and busts of central bank caused price distortions.  Still, few ever trace the genesis back to the Federal Reserve.  Instead, they see what appear to be extreme price increases and place the blame on producers.

For example, workers may falsely condemn capitalism for rising prices, especially when provoked by populist politicians.  Yet they never scratch below the surface where the Fed’s money and credit games are lurking.  If they did, they’d find a system that stacks the deck against them.

Take the industrious wage earner.  As he goes about his day-to-day business, he may find that, despite working harder and harder, his lot in life never improves.  In fact, it may even regress.

But many won’t recognize heavy handed monetary policy as reasons for their disappointment.  The erosion of purchasing power can be subtle over long periods.  Moreover, the effects of currency debasement policies extend to all corners of the economy.

Take the recent college graduate, making a subsistence wage at a franchise coffee shop, buried under $50,000 in student loan debt.  He may be deeply aware that something is radically wrong.  He may even ask, ‘How come the cost of school is at such disparity with the value it provides?’

Nonetheless, many college graduates won’t correlate the bubble in student loan debt, or the massive building boom on college campuses, to the Fed’s mass credit creation machine.  Nor will they contemplate the broken promises that led them down such a futile path.  Rather, they look to the President, like an ancient Egyptian pharaoh, to cancel their debts.

Gimme My Stimmy

Similarly, voters may celebrate a new stimmy check, while disparaging greedy capitalists for making their daily cup of coffee so expensive.  Some will even use their free government money to buy a “GIMME MY STIMMY” T-Shirt.  Yet few will bother to ask, ‘Where’s the money coming from?’

The answer, of course, is as hollow as it sounds.  That is, it’s created out of thin air.

Still, the majority of Americans are incapable of putting two and two together.  In fact, this week spectacular evidence was given proving that the majority of Americans are, indeed, mildly retarded.

What are we talking about?

The following Newsweek headlines will leave you questioning the enlightenment of democratic rule…

“Majority of Americans Back New Stimulus Checks To Combat Inflation”

The Fed’s ruse, no doubt, works exceedingly well when consumer prices are suppressed over a multi-decade experiment in globalization and increasing international trade.  The Fed can get away with debasing the currency to juice financial markets and finance bloated government spending programs when cheap, imported goods fill the shelves of Costco and Walmart.  Workers are none the wiser.

But after flooding the economy with upwards of $5 trillion to combat the effects of despotic coronavirus lockdowns, the Fed has produced a problem that won’t simply go away.  The money is out and about, chasing prices higher.  But the majority of Americans want more stimmy checks to somehow combat this.

At the same time, a geopolitical shift is reversing the 50-year trend in globalization.  This structural change in the economy will propel prices higher for decades to come.  Hiking interest rates several percentage points won’t cut it.

Obviously, one can’t assign all liability for the broad population’s financial malaise to the Fed.  Lethargy and sloth remain principal culprits for many folks’ immobility.

Poverty, remember, for a majority of people that live with it, is more of an attitude than a financial condition.  Giving someone free money does nothing to adjust their attitude of poverty.  To the contrary, it reinforces their dependence.

We’ve seen how industriousness and ingenuity can still overcome ZIRP.  Though for wage earners this is an increasingly difficult task.  What good is a 3 percent pay raise when the official rate of consumer price inflation is 8 percent, and the real inflation rate is over 16 percent?

Are You Ready for the Coming U.S. Government Default?

The point is, more than anyone else, Fed Chair Jay Powell has his fingerprints all over today’s raging consumer price inflation and the now destructive rate hiking means for containing it.  The Fed’s efforts to smooth out the peaks and valleys of the business cycle and keep the gravy flowing to its private member banks have had the ill effect of magnifying them.

The consequences to workers, savers, and retirees alike are remarkably harmful.  Furthermore, as the current financial order strains to preserve the status quo, the level of intervention into the economy and financial markets will continue to mushroom like mold spores on wet drywall.  Radical policies will be hatched to cover the shortcomings of prior blunders.

The U.S. national debt has topped $31.2 trillion.  Tack on the debt of households, businesses, state and local governments, and financial institutions, and you’re looking at a total U.S. debt over $92.9 trillion.

As the Fed hikes interest rates to contain the raging inflation of its making, the cost of servicing government debt increases.  Total U.S. tax revenue is approximately $4.9 trillion.  Total U.S. interest paid is over $3.4 trillion.  Before long it will take 100 percent of tax revenue just to service the debt interest.

Then what?

The popular American myth is that the U.S. government has never defaulted on its debt.  Quite frankly, that’s an unadulterated lie.  The U.S. government has (unofficially) defaulted on its debt twice within the last hundred years.

Executive Order 6102 of 1933, which forced all American citizens to turn in gold coins and bars, was, in fact, a default.  Gold ownership in the United States, with some small limitations, was illegal for the next 40 years.

Under EO 6102, Americans were compensated $20.67 per troy ounce of gold.  They were paid with paper dollars.  Immediately following the government’s gold confiscation, the price of gold was raised by the Gold Reserve Act of 1934 to $35 per ounce.  Just like that, American citizens were robbed of over 40 percent of their wealth.

The second default occurred in 1971, when President Nixon “temporarily” suspended the convertibility of the dollar into gold.

Prior to 1971, as determined by the Bretton Woods international monetary system, which was agreed to in Bretton Woods, New Hampshire, in July 1944, a foreign bank could exchange $35 with the U.S. Treasury for one troy ounce of gold.  After the U.S. reneged on this established exchange rate, when foreign banks handed the U.S. Treasury $35, they received $35 in exchange.

In both instances, the U.S. government didn’t overtly default on the debt.  Instead, it changed the fundamentals – the terms and conditions – of the dollar.  By all honest accounts, these are defaults.

What dirty trick does Uncle Sam have up his dirty sleeve this time?

One possible swindle is the issuance of a digital dollar – a Fed or government issued central bank digital currency (CBDC) – which is traceable and programmable.  When it is introduced, your accounts will be credited one for one, as in one federal reserve note for one digital dollar.  But what you’ll be able to buy in return with your digital dollars will be far less.

You see, the digital dollar roll out will provide elaborate cover.

Make no mistake.  This is a default.  And it is coming much sooner than you think.

Are you ready?

*  *  *

Quite frankly, it’s maddening.  But you must not be a victim.  For this reason, after nearly two decades of research, I damn near killed myself putting together the Financial First Aid Kit.  Inside, you’ll find everything you need to know to protect your wealth and privacy as the U.S. government defaults for the third time in the last 100-years.

While the US awaits with bated breath to see if there will be any diesel inventories after the midterm elections (see “Forget Oil, The Real Crisis Is Diesel Inventories: The US Has Just 25 Days Left”), other countries are already seeing gas stations run dry. Take Ho Chi Minh City, the city known as Vietnam’s economic engine, whose gas stations are being forced to suspend operations due to shortages of the fuel.

Believe it or not, it is possible to have an even worse government response to an energy crisis than that of the US democrats, and Vietnam is it: a tangle of reactions to a constrained petroleum market – including government price controls and distributors’ decreasing profits – has worsened the country’s gasoline shortage, increasing the burden on domestic refineries.

While these refineries are moving to increase gasoline production, it will take time for Vietnam to fully solve the fundamental problems behind its petroleum crisis according to Nikkei Asia.

The government in mid-October called on two refineries to boost output to the maximum extent possible in a bid to meet domestic demand. The government also asked distributors to speed deliveries to gas stations. PetroVietnam, the country’s largest state-run oil company, responded by raising the operation rate of its Dung Quat refinery in the central province of Quang Ngai to 109% from 107%. A refinery executive said the rate can be pushed to 110% or even higher, should the government make further requests.

Oil refineries generally save some production capacity even when declaring they are running at 100%. When they crank up production during emergencies, their operation rate can surpass 100%. At the Nghi Son refinery in the northern province of Thanh Hoa, in which Idemitsu Kosan of Japan has a major stake, production at the beginning of the year had to be substantially cut as it failed to procure sufficient funds to import crude oil. Since April, however, the refinery has been operating near full capacity. According to a refinery source, the plant can afford to increase its operation rate.

Alas, these measures are too late to fix what is already a major crisis: since early October, several hundred gas stations in Ho Chi Minh City, the country’s biggest metropolis, and in surrounding cities in southern Vietnam have had to occasionally suspend operations, saying they have nothing to sell.

One reason for this is that distributors have been unable to pass on their rising costs due to what is effectively a government cap on gasoline prices, according to industry sources. Smaller distributors have been hit particularly hard, discouraging them from supplying stations as their profits turn too meager.

Another reason gas stations are temporarily closing is the lack of refineries in the southern part of Vietnam, where Ho Chi Minh City is located and which accounts for about 45% of the country’s demand for oil and petrochemical products.

Even in the capital of Hanoi, some citizens have rushed to gas stations fearing that the fuel shortage will soon spread north. “Another gas station was closed,” said Nam, a weary-looking commuter refueling his motorcycle. “Here I at least got gas after waiting for 20 minutes.”

Since motorcycles are a common means to commute to work and school in the country, the gasoline situation is hampering the daily activities of many Vietnamese.

Two refineries meet a little more than 70% of domestic demand for oil products, but they have found themselves at a disadvantage since the start of the Ukraine war, setting off a chain reaction in global energy markets. Now that “European countries are buying large amounts of petroleum products,” a high-ranking government official said, “a small country [like Vietnam] finds it hard to augment its purchases.”

And here is why central planning always fails: in Vietnam, the government sets the retail price of gasoline, altering it every 10 days in line with price movements on the international market. The country’s refineries must accept the government mandate, which means enduring today’s especially volatile international prices.

But there are also domestic factors behind Vietnam’s supply constraints. Early this year, the Nghi Son refinery’s operating rate fell, leading to a shortage of gasoline across the country. The government itself is adding to the sense of crisis despite the fact that it is now considering more frequent price updates and altering the formula it uses to change prices.

Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh has said more timely price adjustments could help matters. As things now stand, the price control system tends to make oil-related businesses hold off on selling their products as they wait for international prices to go up again, giving them the opportunity to fatten their profits.

Distributors, meanwhile, complain that recent increases in transportation costs have not been reflected in the government-set prices and that their troubles deepened earlier this year when the government lowered the mandated prices for oil products. This resulted in losses as the distributors still had to pay high prices on the international market. Now the companies are unable to maintain sufficient stocks.

As the government explores solutions, refineries are talking about adding capacity. The PetroVietnam group’s Dung Quat refinery is planning to expand its refining capacity by nearly 20%. That would allow it to produce about 170,000 barrels a day by 2026. Carrying out the plan is expected to cost more than $1.2 billion. PetroVietnam is wholly owned by the government. Management and government officials are in final talks to put the plan into action, though financing issues must be resolved before work on the expansion can begin.

The company also plans to build a complex in the southern province of Ba Ria-Vung Tau comprising a refinery and a petrochemical plant. A refinery near Ho Chi Minh City is expected to help reduce the cost of transporting petroleum products to the important commercial hub and surrounding region.

Multiple reports show the world’s largest nuclear submarine, the USS Rhode Island, left the Port of Gibraltar on Spain’s south coast last week and was last seen entering the Mediterranean. British newspaper Daily Express said the nuclear submarine is “reportedly heading towards the Black Sea.” 

The Italian newspaper la Repubblica said USS Rhode Island, which arrived in Gibraltar on Nov. 1, entered the Mediterranean Sea on Friday. The Ohio-class nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine can carry 24 Trident II missiles capable of hitting targets 18 thousand kilometers away. 

“Rhode Island emerges in Gibraltar, armed with intercontinental missiles and hundreds of nuclear warheads. On a mission to give the Kremlin a warning,” La Repubblica wrote. 

🇺🇸⚔️⚡⚓ The US nuclear-powered submarine USS Rhode Island, dubbed the “rider of the apocalypse”, has entered the Mediterranean Sea.
The submarine is capable of carrying 24 Trident II intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of engaging targets at ranges of up to

1/ pic.twitter.com/goAvJZsAED

— J. Malkova🇷🇺♥️ (@CanadianKitty1) November 5, 2022

Earlier this week, Captain John Craddock, commander of the US Navy’s Task Force 69, said:

“Rhode Island’s port visit to Gibraltar reinforces our ironclad commitment to our allies and partners in the region.

“The US and UK share a strong history of cooperation, through exercises, operations, and cooperation activities such as this, that enhance our combined capabilities and partnership.

“The complexity, lethality, and tactical expertise of Rhode Island epitomises the effectiveness and strength of the submarine force.”

USS Rhode Island’s arrival in the Mediterranean Sea comes after Russian submarine Generalissimus Suvorov launched a Bulava ballistic missile from the White Sea as part of a training mission. 

Ohio-class subs can patrol continuously as a highly-effective tool for the NATO nuclear deterrence force and could be headed to a strategic position near the Black Sea. 

Authored by David Solway via PJMedia.com,

Storms come in many forms and may consist of many different constituent elements, but when all these elements combine at the same critical moment, we call it a “perfect storm.” When such a storm is transposed analogically to the cultural, political, and economic realms, that is, when it seems to impact the entire social environment, we have no choice but to grasp its significance and prepare for its onset by taking protective measures.

Such a storm is now upon us. All its elements clearly point to an orchestrated intention; in other words, it cannot be an accident. And the intention we discern in the current historical moment, the underlying plan, would appear to lay the ground for what has been called a “techno-totalitarian digital dark age,” associated with the Club of Rome, the United Nations, and the World Economic Forum, that is, what has come to be known as the Great Reset — the corporate takeover of property, health, currency, travel, energy, and sustenance. The upshot involves a thorough restructuring of democratic society along neo-medieval lines, an elimination of the middle class, a two-tier political order, and a reduction of the global census.

The sinister elements composing this storm are readily observable to anyone paying attention:

• The imposition of a viral pandemic and its official response — lockdowns, social distancing, masks, quarantines, medical apartheid — that effectively closed down the public life and economic structures of entire nations, leading to loss of livelihoods, physical and psychological illness, and spiraling suicide rates.

• The mandating of novel genomic “vaccines” that are creating mass casualties, as witnessed in the phenomenon of SADS — Sudden Adult Death Syndrome — which came into prominence post-vaccine. The plethora of dissuasive “fact-checks” on social media and the Internet are further signs that we are living in an age of censorship. The correlation between SADS and the vaccine rollout is overwhelming and may even suggest a causal link. The massive rise in stillbirths may also be attributed to the vaccines.

• A “climate change” policy entailing carbon taxes, bans on fertilizers, the shutting down of standard energy production, the marketing of costly and inefficient electric vehicles that threaten to deplete the power grid, and the legislating of largely unworkable and extortionate green renewables based on insecure and fabricated science and dodgy computer models, whose effect has been to impoverish both producers and ordinary citizens in bringing about a new and despotic dispensation.

• Supply chain disruptions.

• Government-induced food and fuel shortages.

• Rampant inflation, pricing the necessities of life beyond the ability of vast numbers of people to afford them.

• The official insistence on so-called “abortion rights.”

• The focus on and pursuit of LGBTQ+, “non-binary,” transgender, and sexual indoctrination of preschoolers and minors, creating a growing cohort of human beings who do not reproduce, i.e., a condition of sterility.

• The proposed creation of a cashless digital economy and the introduction of digital ID with the aim of establishing a China-style social credit system, depriving the individual of personal freedom and discretionary choice.

• The initiating of proxy wars, as in Ukraine, further resulting in crippling forms of material scarcity, economic pain, and population stress.

All these factors are occurring at the same time, that is, they are components of a perfect storm brought to bear on the global community — or, more accurately, on the community of Western nations. (“Civilization states” like Russia, China, and India, are largely immune to the concerted onslaught.)

One cannot credibly deny that there exists a conscious purpose behind so evident a concatenation of simultaneous events, envisaging a new and reductionist world order and population diminishment in every sense of the term. The liberal civilization of the West is to be replaced by an anti-capitalist global coup favoring a totalitarian governing class. Indeed, to change the metaphor, what is impending is a kind of “mass extinction event” on the level of culture, state, and civilization, a kind of ideological asteroid or “planet killer,” orbiting very close to the future.

In his 2020 Ted Talk, Bill Gates asserts that “if we do a really great job on new vaccines, health care, and reproductive health services, we could lower [world population] by ten or fifteen percent.” Vaccines and boosters seem to be having precisely that effect. Gates’ posing with WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, an Ethiopian Marxist revolutionary, should tell us all we need to know. Klaus Schwab’s Great Reset, backed by leading politicians, NGOs, technocrats, and globalist oligarchs, would reduce the free world geopolitically and demographically to near-global servitude.

For additional confirmation, one need only read the Meadows/Randers influential and updated book, Limits to Growth, adopted by the Club of Rome. As Dennis Meadows claims in a recent interview with the leftist online magazine Resilience, “I don’t know what a sustainable population level is now, but it’s probably much closer to a billion people, or fewer.” The authors are skeptical of growth as a function of what they call “overshoot,” of “go[ing] beyond limits accidentally,” which can ultimately produce an “ecological footprint” that is unsustainable. They do not recognize that growth and its negative offshoots can be managed without employing drastic solutions — solutions that are themselves a product of overshoot. “If a profound correction is not made soon,” they warn, “a crash of some sort is certain.” The trouble is, they are the crash.

Of course, there is nothing new in their deposition. They advance what is essentially a Malthusian argument that posits an inverse ratio between (geometrically increasing) population growth and (arithmetically increasing) material resources. Paul Ehrlich’s 1968 bestseller The Population Bomb, in true Malthusian fashion, famously proclaimed that “the battle to feed all of humanity is over [and that] civilization collapse is imminent.” Interestingly, none of his dated predictions have come to pass.

Indeed, the theory of universal implosion has been long discredited. Science writer Ronald Bailey, for example, puts paid to the thesis in The End of Doom, ridiculing the Malthusian refusal to “let go of the simple but clearly wrong idea that human beings are no different than a herd of deer when it comes to reproduction.” Humans are reasoning animals — at any rate, some humans — capable of dealing with pressing and seemingly intractable problems through genuine scientific discoveries and innovative approaches developed over time. As Matt Ridley mentions in his informative The Evolution of Everything, even Malthus was not a thoroughgoing catastrophist, proposing late marriage as a solution to overpopulation.

Nevertheless, our latter-day Malthusians, Resetters, and plutocratic Marxists persist in advancing their campaign, like avid but errant disciples of Francis Galton who claimed, “What nature does blindly, slowly, and ruthlessly, man may do providently, quickly and kindly.” The “kindly” part soon dropped out of the formulation and negative eugenics, entailing involuntary sterilization, eventually emerged as a solution to the problem of overpopulation and declining resources. (As Nicholas Wright Gillham writes in his fascinating biography A Life of Sir Francis Galton, “What eugenics wrought in the first half of the twentieth century was much worse than anything Galton would have envisioned.”)

Fortunately, resistance is mounting. Important books have been published, like Michael Walsh’s edited volume Against the Great Reset, Alex Jones’ The Great Reset: And the War for the World, and Marc Morano’s The Great Reset: Global Elites and the Permanent Lockdown (all highly recommended), that are eloquently and passionately sounding the alarm. So-called “populist revolts” in countries like France, Italy, and Sweden, (the latter two having elected new conservative administrations), as well as the MAGA movement in the U.S., are challenging a powerful conspiracy — not a conspiracy theory but a conspiracy fact — that seeks to destabilize the world order, uproot the foundations of long-standing usages and traditions, collapse the economic basis of the West and, in short, build back worse.

The class of power-mad manipulators behind the Great Reset pass themselves off as humanity’s benefactors. We should be neither impressed nor influenced by their presumed concern for the welfare of mankind. They are agents of destruction, not laborers in the vineyard. Murray Rothbard wisely urges in Egalitarianism as a Revolt Against Nature that “the challenge must take place at the core — at the presumed ethical supremacy of a nonsensical goal.” The goal may be nonsensical, but it is real and dangerous. Nor do ethical considerations even remotely figure in the revolutionary agenda of our presumed Samaritan patrons.

Perhaps the perfect storm can be weathered. Perhaps the ideological asteroid can be deflected. But it will take awareness, knowledge, and commitment on the part of more and more people if we are to emerge on the other side of the gathering cataclysm.

Authored by John Mac Ghlionn via The Epoch Times,

President Xi Jinping recently vowed to launch comprehensive initiatives to address China’s rapidly declining birth rate.

Behind the bombastic rhetoric, however, there lies a truly sobering fact: new policies probably won’t be enough to arrest China’s demographic decline. Here’s why.

In China, a hyper-traditional society, having a child out of wedlock is still frowned upon. Childbearing and childrearing are synonymous with marriage. Last year, the communist nation saw marriage rates hit a 35-year low. The sharp drop in marital vows comes at the same time China faces an impending demographic crisis. 2021 saw 7.6 million marriage registrations, the fewest since 1986. With falling birth rates and a rapidly aging population, China faces problems that are very much existential in nature.

In truth, China’s marriage crisis has been an issue for the best part of a decade. In the space of six years, between 2013 and 2019, the number of Chinese citizens getting married fell from 23.8 million to 13.9 million, a 41 percent drop. Of course, the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) ill-advised one-child policy, which was in place for 35 years (1980–2015), has resulted in far fewer people of marriageable age. The policy resulted in 400 million fewer babies being born.

Medical staff takes care of a newborn baby at a hospital in Fuyang in China’s eastern Anhui province, on Jan. 19, 2019. (STR/AFP via Getty Images)

China has also witnessed “changing attitudes to marriage, especially among young women who are becoming more educated and financially independent,” according to CNN. Due to “widespread workplace discrimination” and “patriarchal traditions,” an increasing number of women are saying no to marriage.

Some readers, I’m sure, will roll their eyes at the “patriarchal traditions” bit. If you happen to be one of them, I don’t blame you. I have been highly critical of the ways in which the “p word” has been weaponized and demonized by many individuals in the United States and beyond. However, patriarchal traditions look a little different in China than, say, the United States or the UK. The Chinese, we’re told, have a rather controversial saying: “If you don’t beat your wife every three days, she’ll start tearing up roof tiles.” A quarter of Chinese women are victims of domestic violence. Every 7.4 seconds a wife is beaten by her husband. As is clear to see, Chinese women can be forgiven for having second thoughts about marriage, especially if they were raised in an abusive household.

Besides the violence, there’s also another reason why fewer Chinese people are deciding to walk down the aisle. China is an incredibly expensive place to live. According to Mercer’s Cost of Living Index 2022, six of the biggest Chinese cities—Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Qingdao, and Nanjing—are among the top 10 most expensive cities on the Asian continent. Meanwhile, Hong Kong, more or less controlled by Beijing, is the most expensive city in the world. Not surprisingly, more Hong Kongers are saying no to marriage and no to starting a family. If one is struggling to pay rent, having a child is probably the last thing on their mind.

So what, some will say, cities in the United States, UK, and Western Europe are also ridiculously expensive to live in. Yes, they are. But China’s GDP per capita is less than $10,000. This places the country between the Balkan nation of Montenegro and Botswana, located in southern Africa. The United States, on the other hand, has a GDP per capita of $69,000.

A man walks in front of a housing complex by Chinese property developer Evergrande in Beijing on Oct. 21, 2021. (Noel Celis/AFP via Getty Images)

For years, we have heard so much about China’s impressive GDP growth. At the same time, however, we have heard very little about its less-than-impressive GDP per capita.

What’s my point?

There are at least 90 million people currently working in Chinese factories. In a year, they can expect to earn roughly 55,000 RMB (less than $8,000). Even those working in more prestigious positions struggle to make more than $16,000 per year. By 2035, China’s GDP per capita is expected to be $28,700. Try getting married, paying rent, buying necessities, and starting a family on $28,700.

Moreover, it’s particularly difficult to start a family (or do anything of value) when you can’t find a job. Right now, China’s youth unemployment is close to 20 percent (8.1 percent in the United States (pdf)). Of course, China’s marriage problem isn’t exactly unique. Other countries around the world, including the United States, are also experiencing their own marriage-related issues. However, the size of the problem facing China and the CCP is, for lack of a better word, gigantic—especially now that its economy appears to be going down the proverbial lavatory.

Analysts at The Lowy institute, a Sydney-based think tank, insist that, even with “continued broad policy success,” China’s “annual economic growth will slow to about 3% by 2030 and 2% by 2040.” China’s economy, we’re told, appears to be suffering from a crisis in confidence among consumers. Is it any surprise? The average Chinese citizen, be they 25 or 75, is struggling to survive.

In an effort to address the marriage crisis, there’s always the chance that the CCP could use its cruel social credit system to punish adults who refuse to get married and start a family. The CCP might take inspiration from Russia, its close ally, where couples are currently being offered financial incentives to get married and have children. But, commonsense tells us that it will take a lot more than one-off payments and tax subsidies to solve China’s marriage situation, a problem that is fast becoming existential in nature. Money is a necessity, but it’s no substitute for genuine desire. Today, for reasons already explained, very few Chinese have any desire to get married. As the country becomes older and less efficient, expect the flame of desire to become even more faint.

…

Read more here…

The end of November marks the close of the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season. There are a little more than three weeks left in the season, and AccuWeather forecasters say a tropical threat has emerged just north of the Caribbean and could strengthen into a storm next week, with Florida in the crosshairs.

A low-pressure system developed on Saturday just south of Puerto Rico. By Sunday, the system, dubbed Invest 98L, moved North of Puerto Rico and has an 80% chance of developing into a subtropical or tropical depression over the next two days. It has a 90% chance of developing over the next five days.

AccuWeather forecasters warn, “this tropical rainstorm will become better organized and likely become a tropical storm as it takes a winding track toward the Bahamas and storm-weary Florida.” If it develops into a tropical storm in the Atlantic basin, it will be named “Nicole.” 

AccuWeather storm track modeling shows the system is on a westward path and could make landfall in South Florida in the second half of the week. 

Gov. Ron DeSantis and other state officials told Floridians to be prepared for potential tropical impacts. 

“I encourage all Floridians to be prepared and make a plan in the event a storm impacts Florida.

 “We will continue to monitor the path and trajectory of Invest 98L and we remain in constant contact with all state and local government partners,” DeSantis said.

The exact landfall timing and location are uncertain but could affect many Floridians still recovering from Hurricane Ian in September. 

Authored by Thomas Buckley via ‘The Point’ Substack,

The morning after is never pleasant… and it shouldn’t be!

It’s about 11 a.m.  The brain activates but you’re not quite sure you can open your eyes.

You experience what Homer Simpson described as “that sweet couple of seconds before I remember why I’m sleeping on the lawn.”

You feel around and breathe a sigh of relief that you are still indoors, slowly open one eye, see your spouse glaring at you and it all floods back.  You had too much fun last night.

Thoughts race – how much did I…? it couldn’t have been that bad, could it…?  Oh wait, maybe there was that thing…was there?

You shut your eye while remaining extremely aware of your spouse’s foot tapping menacingly on the bedroom floor, trying desperately to immediately recall the previous evening’s proceedings.  At first, the part of your brain that evolved to ensure self-preservation kicks in and you momentarily convince yourself you were actually rather restrained…

– but then reality crashes in and you open your eyes again, look down, wonder how that stain got on your tie even before realizing that your wore it to bed,  You put on your most sheepish face, look up, say “Honey, I…” and are immediately cut off by the most disgusted and disappointed “I cannot believe you sometimes!” you have ever heard in your life.

The next few days are rough – you remain a bit too heavy-footed to properly slink around the house, you hunt for a can of soup because you know with absolute certainty your spouse is not going to be cooking anytime soon, you gobble Advil, and you wonder which is worse – the hangover or the nearly lethal tension hovering in the house.

After a day or so, you start to work your way back to normal – a bit.  You haven’t really done that before, mostly, you tell yourself it was just a party and – even though you admit to overdoing it – everyone was pretty well lubricated (you finally remember that really off-color joke your neighbor told and you know – you think – you didn’t say anything that bad,) and you vow – to yourself first and only after you have worked out the speech in your head – to your spouse that it will never happen again (even though you both know it very well could.)

And then – in an effort to get yourself completely off the hook for your bad behavior –  you write an article for The Atlantic entitled “Let’s Declare a Drunken Party Amnesty.”

And you have the self-satisfied gall of the recently repentant to think “well, that’s over and we should never discuss it ever again because that would be rude of you.”

That’s not how this works.

The actions taken by Dr. Emily Oster – who had the astonishing temerity to write the “Let’s Declare a Pandemic Amnesty” piece  and her many many over-credentialed, under-educated power mad brethren over the past 30 months cannot be given a pass.

What happened during the pandemic was obviously more than a one-off drunken party moment.  Having tee many martoonis does not compare to the whirlwind of destruction the COVID reaction caused.

Massive educational degradation.  Economic devastation, by both the lockdowns and now the continuing fiscal nightmare plaguing the nation caused by continuing federal over-reaction.  The critical damage to the development of children’s social skills through hyper-masking and fear-mongering.  The obliteration of the public’s trust in institutions due to their incompetence and deceitfulness during the pandemic.  The massive erosion of civil liberties.  The direct hardships caused by vaccination mandates, etc. under the false claim of helping one’s neighbor.  The explosion of the growth of Wall Street built on the destruction of Main Street.  The clear separation of society into two camps – those who could easily prosper during the pandemic and those whose lives were completely upended.  The demonization of anyone daring to ask even basic questions about the efficacy of the response, be it the vaccines themselves, the closure of public schools, the origin of the virus, or the absurdity of the useless public theater that made up much of the program.  The fissures created throughout society and the harm caused by guillotined relationships amongst family and friends.  The slanders and career chaos endured by prominent actual experts (see the Great Barrington Declaration) and just plain reasonable people like Jennifer Sey – https://nypost.com/2022/10/24/former-levis-top-exec-reveals-how-woke-mobs-took-over-corporations/ –  for daring to offer different approaches, approaches – such as focusing on the most vulnerable –  that had been tested and succeeded before. 

And still a million people died.

And now Oster asks if everyone would just please move on and forget about it?

Oster kept her job.  Oster got famous.  The pandemic was good for Oster.

The pandemic was also good for bureaucrats, multi-nationals, putative experts, the mindless media, and internet scolds.  It was good for woke adults who want to remain children, it was good for the national security-industrial complex, it was good for hiding behind, it was good for expanding societal power.

It was not good for people.

There are other aspects to consider when mulling over the request as well.

• First, this amnesty idea was wholly predictable, though when I did so I assumed it would entail at least a modicum of shame – see here:

• Second, the politics – for the Democrats –  of the request are incredibly stupid.  Placing the misery of the pandemic front and center a week before the mid-term election is beyond a bad idea and is only made the more amazing – and offensive – that it was done purposefully and in the context of demanding a free pass.  The fearlessly narcissistic arrogance of the bubble people knows no bounds – see here:

• Third, as for the “we really didn’t know but we meant well so we’re all good, right?” aspect of the argument, that is a repellent lie.  Oster and her merry band of pandemicists knew full well (at least after the first few months) exactly what was happening, exactly the collateral damage being caused was and still actively decided to continue to push the false and destructive narrative of the response.  It strongly appears that the reason for the aggressive ignorance was wholly about power, fame, money, societal purchase, doubling down on mistakes so as not to have to admit error, and buying into (and burnishing) their own image as the nation’s saviors.

It cannot be forgotten that until this moment  – except for Fauci, due to his deadly bungling of the emergence of AIDS – 99 percent of the people who suddenly, like Oster, became experts and got to be on television and publicly worshiped and given real actual power for the first time in their lives were – outside of their narrow fields – utter nobodies.  Being the all-praised, almighty center of attention feels good and that is a feeling you will do anything to keep going.

Just the mind-warping act of asking for amnesty shows that nothing has been learned by Oster and her ilk and they will, if given the chance, do it all again exactly they way they did it this time.

Amnesty is pretending something never happened – this episode in our history must never be forgotten if we are to preserve our nation.

Amnesty will not – it cannot – be given. 

And please do not ask again.

*  *  *

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It has been a great year for energy stocks as the chart below clearly reveals…

… and it will be an even better year (and decade) for energy stocks.

Why? Not because of what Goldman trader Michael Sullivan wrote last week explaining why Energy has (finally) become everyone’s favorite sector (more than two years after we first told our readers to go balls to the wall long XOM):

“Energy continues to lead. When oil is up. When oil is down. When yields are up, or when they are down. When the US is threatening Windfall Profits Taxes or considering limits on product exports. Whether the market is hiding in defensives or shifting to more offensive positioning … maybe energy equities are leading because the market sees a pretty good set-up for oil: (1) US SPR release rate is slowing; (2) EU sanctions on Russian sea borne crude are expected to start in Dec; (3) we are passing peak refining maintenance and at the onset of winter — both of which should drive a sequential increase in demand; (4) distillate inventories are extremely low and subject to upside risks, link; (5) a Fed pivot would likely support inflows into commodities — implying a weaker dollar — every 10% move in the dollar is about 300k/d to oil demand on an annual basis.”

It’s not because of what One River CIO Eric Peters wrote in his latest weekend note:

“The UN forecasts that world population will pass eight billion next week,” said the energy executive. “One billion of us lack proper access to energy,” she continued. “And we are currently consuming 100mm barrels of oil per day.” That is double what it was 50yrs ago (still rising 1.5% per year). The IEA predicts consumption of 125mm barrels per day by mid-century if the current mix of policies continues. “India’s population will surpass China’s next year,” she said. India GDP per capita is $2,500 (China is $14,340). India is striving to catch up. “In the decades ahead, 90% of the world population will demand more energy.”

It’s because of what Joe Biden let slip just two days before the midterms, namely what everyone always knew would be the pinnacle of catastrophic US energy policy under the democrats: “no more drilling”

BREAKING: Two days before the midterm elections, Joe Biden clearly states he is for “no more [oil] drilling.” pic.twitter.com/2F9hZNOwMt

— RNC Research (@RNCResearch) November 7, 2022

As Michael Shellenberger so poignantly noted, for months, President Joe Biden and members of his cabinet have claimed that they are no obstacle to expanded oil and gas production in the United States.

On June 21 Biden said, “This idea that they don’t have oil to drill and to bring up is simply not true. This piece of the Republicans talking about Biden shutting down fields is wrong.”

On June 22, Biden said, I know my Republican friends claim, we’re not producing enough oil and I’m limiting oil production. Quite frankly, that’s nonsense.”

And on November 2, Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm tweeted, “Disinfo about @POTUS’ energy agenda is being used to scare/mislead Americans while industry cashes in. The facts are clear: This Admin outpaced the previous Admin on crude oil production + oil/gas well approvals while also making historic investments in a clean energy transition.”

But tonight, Biden has effectively admitted that he, Energy Secretary Granholm, and others in his administration have been lying. 

I have documented the lies Biden has told about his energy policy for the last five months. Others have as well. The Wall Street Journal reported in September that Biden had leased fewer acres of public land and waters offshore for oil and gas drilling than any other administration since World War II.

Granholm tweeted out a Politico article that noted that Biden administration regulators approved oil and gas wells more quickly than the Trump administration did during its first 21 months in office.

But the story was misleading because those approvals were entirely for drilling on private and state land, which are outside of the administration’s control, something Politico acknowledged 12 paragraphs into its article.

Biden’s quote, which is on par with his “outrageous” coal plant closure comments, hardly needs more commentary but we will note that it comes just days after the White House unveiled its “brilliantly cunning” plan of promising energy execs that it would buy all the oil they had to sell at $72 to refill the SPR that Biden single-handedly drained to crush US energy companies. Maybe the same oil execs will be just a little skeptical when it comes to anything that comes out of this old man’s mouth going forward.