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Judge Rejects Request From Moderna, Moving Key COVID-19 Vaccine Case To Discovery

Judge Rejects Request From Moderna, Moving Key COVID-19 Vaccine Case To Discovery

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

A key COVID-19 vaccine case is moving to the discovery phase after a U.S. judge rejected a bid by Moderna to dismiss some of the patent infringement claims against it.

Vials of Moderna’s COVID-19 vaccine in Bridgeport, Conn., in a file image. (Joseph Prezioso/AFP via Getty Images)

Moderna and the U.S. government, which backed the company, failed to prove that claims involving the company’s COVID-19 vaccine contract with the government should be dismissed, U.S. District Judge Mitchell Goldberg ruled on March 10.

Goldberg in late 2022 rejected a similar effort but Moderna revived its bid after the government filed a statement asserting it, not the company, should face the claims relating to the contract.

The parties, though, have failed to prove that the government’s interpretation “trumps a court’s analysis of this issue,” Goldberg said.

Moderna and the government had argued that under 28 U.S.C. 1498, the claims should be dismissed and moved to the Court of Federal Claims. That would mean the government was inserted as the defendant, replacing Moderna, and leave the government responsible for paying any damages awarded.

The law in question states that any infringement claims relating to inventions being used “by or for the government” and with “the authorization and consent of the government” must be handled in the Court of Federal Claims.

The 2020 vaccine contract between Moderna and the U.S. Army stated that it was “for the United States government … and the U.S. population.”

While Moderna and the government said that evidence supported the contract being “by or for the government,” Arbutus Biopharma and Genevant Sciences said the dispute “can only be resolved on a fully developed record” and urged the court to allow discovery.

Goldberg, a George W. Bush appointee, agreed.

“I will consider the [Section] 1498(a) issue after both parties have engaged in discovery, which will provide Plaintiff an opportunity to review the entire unredacted version of the ’-0100 Contract and discover facts regarding that Contract,” he said.

New Developments Highlight Need for Discovery

New developments in the case highlight the need for discovery, the judge said.

The original contract, or the ’-0100 Contract, was for the government, both Moderna and U.S. officials say. But the parties have also acknowledged that a second contract, reached in 2022 and known as the ’-0017 contract, doesn’t fall under the law because it lacks certain language.

The position on the second contract wasn’t known when the judge ruled in 2022 on the motion to dismiss.

“Had I granted the relief Moderna sought in its original motion to dismiss, this fact would not have come to light and the relief ordered could have been incorrect,” the judge said.

Read more here…

Tyler Durden
Wed, 03/15/2023 – 09:45

Treasury Yields Collapse After First Republic Downgrade To ‘Junk’

Treasury Yields Collapse After First Republic Downgrade To ‘Junk’

If the systemic risk hangover from Credit Suisse wasn’t enough of a drag on US banking stocks, the news that S&P just downgraded First Republic Bank to ‘junk’ has accelerated the global de-risking.

S&P cut First Republic Bank’s long-term issuer credit rating to BB+ from A- saying it thinks outflow risk remains elevated in the wake of the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, despite regulatory help and the bank actively increasing its borrowing availability.

“We expect increased wholesale borrowings to further weigh on its net interest margin”

“We believe that First Republic’s deposit base is more concentrated than most large U.S. regional banks, which presents heightened funding risks in the current environment.”

First Republic stock is down 20% in the pre-market…

The Regional Bank index is crashing back near post-SVB lows…

And that has swung back with safe-haven flows into USTs with the 2Y yield collapsing…

To its lowest since Sept 2022…

As the market’s expectations for Fed action is dovishly disappearing…

With over 120bps of rate-cuts now priced in for 2023…

And the terminal getting smaller and sooner…

With March now the ‘terminal rate’ with a 60% chance of a ‘pause’ now priced in…

Simply put – the market is pricing in a central bank panic (on recession or systemic risk threat).

Given the resurgence in FRA/OIS spread (indicator stress in the financial pipes)…

We suspect the focus will be on saving banks or The Fed’s transmission pipeline is broken and useless.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 03/15/2023 – 09:29

Aftershock: Life After Silicon Valley Bank

Aftershock: Life After Silicon Valley Bank

Authored by Michael Lebowitz via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

While headlines of bank failures and bailouts consume the media, few are contemplating the economic and financial aftershocks that will follow.

Hockey great Wayne Gretzky famously commented, “I skate to where the puck is going to be, not where it has been.” Let’s take his advice and consider where the economic puck will be tomorrow.

The Silent Bank Run

The banking sector was experiencing a silent bank run well before Silicon Valley Bank made the headlines.

Unlike the Great Depression, where lines of people clamoring for their money were blocks long, this bank run is quiet and calm. For starters, online banking makes moving money from one bank to another financial institution simple and instantaneous. Second, unlike the Depression, which happened suddenly, this bank run has been happening for a year.

Despite much higher interest rates, banks were not increasing interest rates for most of their depositors. Consequently, customers gradually moved money from banks to higher-yielding options outside the banking sector. This bank run is not necessarily about the risks of holding money at a bank, as it was in the Depression, but about the opportunity to earn higher yields elsewhere.

As we share below, commercial bank deposits are doing something they haven’t done since 1948. They are trending lower for an extended period.

Bank Runs and Bank Balance Sheets

To better understand the economic implications of declining deposits and their potential aftershocks, it’s worth summarizing bank balance sheets.

Commercial bank liabilities, in the aggregate, as shown below, are primarily deposits. Deposits allow banks to lend money and therefore are the lifeline of the banking system.

As the amount of bank deposits decline banks must commensurately shed assets. The following pie chart shows the assets commercial banks hold in the aggregate.

Banks sell from the pies in the chart above to meet withdrawals. However, from an economic perspective, as we will explain, it’s not necessarily what they sell but to whom they do not lend to going forward.

Further, given the Fed’s new BTFP facility, banks are incented to hold on to Treasury and mortgage assets. As such, other asset types will be sold or, at a minimum, not added to. The other assets are loans which drive economic activity.

The Bank Reaction Function

So, how do banks gear up for the aftershock?

Banks can significantly increase deposit rates and hope to grow or at least not lose more deposits. However, doing so will reduce their profit margins and put further pressure on their stock prices. Most bank executives are paid dearly in stock. Therefore, we doubt many executives will support competitive deposit rates.

We think banks will sell assets and let existing assets mature without replacing them to match declining deposits. For such a leveraged economy, this will be a big aftershock.

Financial lending standards quantify how easy or hard it is to attain a loan. The Federal Reserve graph below shows that the number of banks tightening lending standards for various loan types is increasing. The percentage of banks with tighter standards is on par with typical recession periods. The data for the graph was taken before the Silicon Valley Bank was on anyone’s radar. We suspect the percentages will proliferate as the aftershocks of the crisis are felt.

The spotlight on banks will force a more conservative stance. Consequently, they will lend less money and become choosier in who they lend to. This new objective will keep loans out of the hands of riskier companies and individuals. Reducing loans available throughout the system will also raise borrowing costs for needier borrowers.

Zombie Companies at Risk

The graph below shows there are about 600 zombie companies out of the approximate 3000 companies in the Russell 3000 small-cap index. One in five companies in the index does not produce enough profit to pay interest on their debt. They must continually borrow to remain a growing concern. Many of these and smaller mom-and-pop companies will either pay much higher interest rates for working capital or not get needed funding. In either case, higher unemployment and bankruptcies are sure to follow. 

The Leverage Tax

In Speak Loudly Because You Carry A Small Stick, we share the graph below. The point was to highlight how dependent the economy has become on debt. To that end, economic growth has become conditional on easy borrowing conditions and low-interest rates.

While interest rates have fallen recently, they are still well above the levels of the last ten years and in time will add to what we call a leverage tax on the economy. As we wrote:

The process whereby higher interest rates slowly but increasingly weaken the economy is known as the lag effect.

In the aftershock of the banking crisis, tighter lending standards and higher interest rates will increase the leverage tax on the economy. Economic growth is sure to falter as a result. 

Fed Pivot?

The graph below shows that year-end Fed Funds expectations fell by over 1% in just the last week.

Are investors jumping to the conclusion that the Fed will pivot, or should they be concerned that the Fed will remain steadfast in its fight against inflation?

The possible silver lining from the Fed’s perspective is that the banks, via tighter lending standards and likely higher interest rates, will curb economic demand and therefore dampen inflationary pressures. Such a circumstance may keep the Fed from not increasing interest rates as much as they thought they might have to.

If banks significantly tighten standards, the Fed may be dealing with disinflationary pressures sooner than expected. Banks, not the Fed, create money as they make loans. If fewer loans are made, less money is created. Subsequently, the nation’s money supply will decline further.

Yes, we said, “further.” The year-over-year change in the money supply has declined for the first time since the Depression, as the re:venture consulting graph shows. Each previous decline was met with an economic depression or financial crisis.

Barring a pickup in monetary velocity, a decline in the money supply is deflationary.

As we saw in this week’s CPI data, the flip side of the deflationary argument is that inflation remains sticky. The economy may brush the banking crisis aside for a while. Accordingly, the Fed may think they have the crisis ring-fenced. Such a mindset could enable the Fed to raise interest rates higher than the market believes. As we have written on many occasions, the economic and market impact of higher interest rates will lead to financial and economic difficulties down the road.

Both Fed paths are problematic!

Consumer Sentiment

Consumers account for about 70% of economic activity. Banking crises hit home as the safety of our own money is at stake. As a result, consumers tend to tighten the reins on spending as banking crises are never welcome economic news.

Consumer confidence will likely decline from current levels, and consumption will follow. It may take a few weeks or even a month before consumer surveys, and economic data reflect the new mindset of the consumer. Stock market volatility will also weigh on consumer sentiment.

The Fed and many economists believe the stock market drives the economy. When people have more wealth, they tend to spend more so goes the Fed’s logic. Following similar logic, recent stock market volatility will likely dampen consumer confidence.

Summary

The banking earthquake is sending shockwaves through the financial markets. The financial and economic aftershocks, soon to follow, are underappreciated and may prove worse than the earthquake.

We have been warning that interest rate hikes take time to affect the economy fully, but in time, the Fed will break something. The combination of the lag effect of last year’s rate hikes and the recent crisis leads further credence to a hard landing scenario.

As we wrote in The No Landing Scenario and UFOs:

While the economy may seem unpredictable, the economic future is predictable. The no landing scenario assumes economic cycles have ceased to exist. The economic cycle is alive and well. But timing its ups and downs with unprecedented amounts of fiscal and monetary stimulus still flowing through the economy and markets is proving incredibly challenging. 

We believe timing the economic downs has just become a little less challenging!

Tyler Durden
Wed, 03/15/2023 – 08:45

Retail Sales & Producer Prices Drop In Feb

Retail Sales & Producer Prices Drop In Feb

With CPI having slapped some macro-sense back into people’s minds after a week focused on SVB’s fallout, this morning’s PPI and Retail Sales data could further that trend – despite Credit Suisse grabbing everyone’s attention today so far.

Producer Prices unexpectedly soared in January and analysts expected February data to show a slowdown in acceleration of prices. It did dramatically, dropping 0.1% MoM (+0.3% MoM exp) to its lowest YoY since March 2021…

Source: Bloomberg

The pipeline for PPI is also now dragging the headline even lower…

Source: Bloomberg

Who could have seen that coming?

And PPI is now leading CPI lower…

Source: Bloomberg

With price rises slowing, retail sales (measured nominally) were expected to shrink in February and they did, down 0.4% MoM as expected…

Source: Bloomberg

That is the lowest YoY rise in retail sales since Dec 2020

 Excluding gasoline and autos, retail sales were flat.

Nine out of 13 retail categories fell last month, led by furniture and restaurants.

The report showed vehicle sales declined 1.8% in February. The value of sales at gasoline stations decreased 0.6%, likely reflecting lower prices in the month.

It looks like the ‘lag’ from monetary policy is catching us up.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 03/15/2023 – 08:37

How The Fed Broke The Banks

How The Fed Broke The Banks

Authored by Joakim Book via Reason.com,

The Fed’s anti-inflation measures had to hurt someone…

The Federal Reserve is in the unenviable position of achieving its mandate by crashing the economy. It’s not something it wants to do, as Fed Chair Jerome Powell meekly admitted in his exchange with Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D–Mass.) last week. But it’s something that happens as an unavoidable outcome of slowing down an economy littered with excess money and inflation. Broad money growth has been negative since late November, and interest rate expenses on everything from corporate borrowing to credit cards to the government’s own debt have been rising fast.

This hiking cycle, the fastest that the Fed has embarked upon in a generation, was always likely to break something. And break something they did over the weekend, from the regulated stablecoins USDC and Gemini Dollar, which lost their dollar pegs, to Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), which faced the second-largest bank run in U.S. history. If one weren’t so hung up on labor markets, inflation figures, and congressional soundbites, presumably these are the sort of things that a monetary authority like the Fed is tasked to manage. Oops.

In Powell’s back-and-forth with Warren, the senator pointed to “things you can’t fix with high interest rates—things like price gouging, supply chain kinks and the war in Ukraine.” Regardless of how little sense those arguments make, our favorite senator is accidentally correct: monetary policy is about money and assets and banks, with only limited (residual) influence over things in real markets.

Barking up the wrong trees—unemployment, market power—Warren missed an opportunity to examine the things that really are breaking. Around the same time she spoke those words and Powell defended the Fed’s action, SVB was desperately trying to raise new money. The effort failed, and plenty of tech investors, including Peter Thiel’s Founders Fund, pulled their mostly uninsured deposits at the bank as quickly as they could.

According to Bloomberg, bank CEO Greg Becker asked creditors on a call Thursday to “support the bank the way it has supported its customers over the past 40 years”—as if any bank run had ever been stopped by asking nicely.

The losses in SVB’s Treasury portfolio—courtesy of the Fed’s quick rate hikes, which crashed the bond market last year—amount to billions of dollars in unrealized losses. The accounting rules of “held to maturity” allows banks to ignore mark-to-market losses if the securities are intended to be held until they come due. Of course, holding to maturity requires you to finance the securities in the meantime, something that’s pretty much impossible when your customers don’t think you’ll make it and instead are demanding their deposits back en masse.

If we ignore this accounting trick, Silicon Valley Bank was already “insolvent” by September of last year, when the unrealized bond losses exceeded its equity.

Towards the end of last year, some $25 billion of deposits ran off as SVB’s customers drained their bank deposits to withstand the business pressures of inflation and a thriving venture capital industry dying down. Another $10 billion followed in the early months of 2023, and who knows how much managed to escape over the last few days—Fortune reports $42 billion on Thursday alone—before management threw in the towel on Friday and had the bank placed into the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation’s receivership.

Because Treasuries are “risk-free” and therefore carry lower capital requirements for banks to hold against them, banks allocate more of their funds to them. This concentrates banking system risk in a single interest-sensitive security. SVB is just the most extreme and reckless version of a risk present in most American banks. For reference, the rest of the U.S. banking system has unrealized losses amounting to more than $600 billion, some 25 times more than the losses that just brought down SVB.

There’s no shortage of blame to place on regulators for having engineered such an unnatural banking market. Far from making banks “safe,” the regulatory system concentrates risks, with the alphabet soup of Fed liquidity facilities standing ready to money-print their way out of any trouble.

As Caitlin Long, CEO of Custodia Bank, pointed out on Saturday, this pushes the Fed into a very delicate position: risk systemic bank runs, or roll back the hikes and quantitative tightening that caused this mess, printing money for an even hotter inflation.

Most awkward of all, here’s what Michael Barr, the Fed vice chair for supervision, said in a speech Thursday as the run was in full swing: “The banks we regulate, in contrast, are well protected from bank runs through a robust array of supervisory requirements.” Double-oops.

The stablecoins that Barr was railing against did indeed break over the weekend. The kicker is that it was the transparently audited ones—whose sponsors have been cozying up to U.S. regulators in recent years—who broke their pegs. The eternal scapegoat Tether, shrouded in mystery, investigated and fined by the New York attorney general in 2021, traded at a premium of as much as 3 percent on Saturday. Everything, it seems, is upside down.

Through the magic of “held to maturity,” perhaps all the other banks can endure the storm and come out the other side without the same losses that SVB was forced to book last week. It certainly gets easier to harbor underwater securities on your books when the Fed stands ready to finance them for you.

Hang on to your hat—or in this case, your bank account. Because Sen. Warren is right about one thing: 

“The Fed has a terrible track record in containing modest increases in the unemployment rate.”

And last week, something already broke.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 03/15/2023 – 06:30

Trump And “J6 Prison Choir” Song Hits #1 On iTunes

Trump And “J6 Prison Choir” Song Hits #1 On iTunes

A song recorded by former President Donald Trump and the “J6 Prison Choir” hit the #1 spot on iTunes over the weekend.

The “J6 Prison Choir” is a group of men jailed for their involvement in the Jan. 6 2021 breach of the US Capitol.

The two-minute song, “Justice for All,” was released on March 3, surpassing “Flowers” by Miley Cyrus to reach the #1 spot on March 11. While the Choir sings the Star Spangled Banner, Trump recites the Pledge of Allegiance.

J6 Prison Choir consists of individuals who have been incarcerated as a result of their involvement in the January 6, 2021 protest for election integrity after President Donald J. Trump stated ‘I know that everyone here will soon be marching over to the Capitol building to peacefully and patriotically make your voices heard,” reads the choir’s website. “The J6PC continues to make their voices heard through the power of music and sings ‘The Star Spangled Banner’ every evening before bed.”

One can even purchase Justice for All in Vinyl if so inclined (45 on a 45!).

According to Forbes, Trump recorded his portion of the song from his Mar-a-Lago home in Florida, while the J6 Prison Choir recorded their part using a jailhouse phone. The song was released the day before Trump appeared at CPAC.

Just days later, Fox News host Tucker Carlson began airing segments of newly released security footage recorded in and around the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, arguing that the footage contradicts predominant political and media narratives about the severity of some defendant’s actions that day.

Carlson showed footage of Jan. 6 defendant Jacob Chansley, otherwise known as the “Q-Anon Shaman,” being led around the Capitol by police officers who did not appear threatened by Chansley’s actions that day. Carlson argued the footage showed Chansley was a minimal security threat, even though he later pleaded guilty and received a sentence of more than three years in prison for his actions. -Epoch Times

On its website, the J6 Prison Choir said that proceeds from the vinyl copies of the song would be used for “certain prisoners denied their constitutional rights.”

Tyler Durden
Wed, 03/15/2023 – 05:45

Four Reasons For Europe’s Record-Breaking Drop In Natural Gas Demand

Four Reasons For Europe’s Record-Breaking Drop In Natural Gas Demand

Authored by Tsvetana Paraskova via OilPrice.coim,

  • According to the IEA’s quarterly gas market report, natural gas consumption in OECD Europe saw its steepest decline in history last year.

  • The IEA said the estimated 13% drop in demand was driven by changes in the energy mix, economic activity, weather, and consumer behavior.

  • It remains to be seen how much, if any, of the decline will be permanent.

Europe’s natural gas demand fell by the most on record last year, with the decline equivalent to the gas volumes required to supply more than 40 million homes, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in a commentary on Tuesday.

Natural gas consumption in OECD Europe fell by an estimated 13% in 2022, its steepest decline in absolute terms in history, IEA said in its quarterly gas report at the end of February. Demand in Europe fell amid mild winter weather and demand reduction in industry due to high prices. 

Significant changes in the energy mix, economic activity, weather, and consumer behavior were responsible for the dramatic shift in natural gas consumption in Europe last year, IEA’s analysts Peter Zeniewski, Gergely Molnar, and Paul Hugues wrote in the commentary.

Record additions of solar and wind power helped lower gas demand, but record-high gas prices in the summer of 2022 also led to a lot of industry curtailments and lower consumption by industries and businesses, according to the IEA.

Yet, the extent to which the high prices will lead to permanent reductions in demand in gas-intensive industrial sectors remains unclear, the IEA’s analysts say.   

In Europe’s industry, gas use fell by 25 bcm, or around 25%, in 2022, due to production curtailment and fuel switching, as the energy-intensive industries were the first to respond to the gas price shocks last year, the IEA said.

In household consumption, “Policy measures – such as renewable support schemes, grants and preferential loans for housing retrofits and heat pump installations, alongside campaigns to encourage behavioural change – all played a part in moderating gas demand,” according to the analysts.

The European Union managed to beat its target for cutting gas demand this winter, Eurostat data showed last month.

According to the data, the EU’s winter demand has so far dropped by 19.3% compared to the five-year average, beating the 15% goal it set for itself to help it survive the winter without gas shortages.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 03/15/2023 – 05:00

The Impact Of Terrorism Around The World

The Impact Of Terrorism Around The World

The latest report from the Institute for Economics and Peace estimates that in 2022, 6,701 deaths were caused by terrorism, globally.

As Statista’s Martin Armstrong notes, despite this high figure, this is 38 percent lower than the level recorded in 2015 and represents a 9 percent decrease on 2021.

The deaths in 2022 occurred across 42 countries, with 121 of the countries included in the report registering no fatalities – the highest number since 2007.

This infographic, using data from The Institute for Economics and Peace’s report ‘Global Terrorism Index 2023‘, gives an overview of how the globe is currently impacted by terrorism. 

Infographic: The Impact of Terrorism Around the World | Statista

You will find more infographics at Statista

Afghanistan is rated as the worst impacted nation in the world.

As noted in the report, however:

“Terrorism is dynamic and, although the overall change in the last three years has been minimal, there have been sharp rises and falls in terrorism in many countries during this period, notably Niger, Myanmar and Iraq.

Globally, the deadliest terrorist group last year was Islamic State (IS), with 1,045 attributed deaths and 644 people injured in a recorded 410 attacks.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 03/15/2023 – 04:15

Betting All On Hegemony; Risking All, To Stave Off Ruin

Betting All On Hegemony; Risking All, To Stave Off Ruin

Authored by Alastair Crooke,

The West is too dysfunctional and weak now to fight on all fronts. Yet there can be no retreat without some de-legitimising humiliation of the West.

Just occasionally, a window is opened onto the truth of how the ‘system’ works. Momentarily, it stands naked in its degeneracy. We avert our eyes, yet, it is a revelation (though it shouldn’t be). For, we see clearly how tawdry has been the attire which clothed it. ‘Liberalism’s’ seeming success – almost wholly an ephemeral PR production – serves only to make its underlying internal contradictions more obvious; more ‘in your face’ – much less credible.

This unravelling speaks to a failure to satisfactorily resolve liberal modernity’s inherent contradictions. Or, rather its unravelling derives from the choice to resolve a waning legitimacy, through an ever more totalistic and ideological reaching for hegemony.

One such window has been the sordid affair of the UK pandemic lockdowns – as revealed by a paper trail leak of 100,000 ministerial WhatsApp messages, managing the lockdown project.

What did they show (in the words here of pro-government leading political commentators)? An ugly picture of how a western Establishment interacts in adolescent sniping at each other, and in its utter disdain for the populace.

Janet Daley writing in The Telegraph:

“It [lockdown] wasn’t about science, it was about politics. That was obvious as soon as the government began talking about following The Science – as if it were a fixed body of revealed truth … they were engaged in a deliberately misleading campaign of public coercion. The programme was designed to frighten – not inform – and to make doubt or scepticism appear morally irresponsible – which is precisely the opposite of what science does”.

“The model for the monumental government programme in which sitting on a park bench, or meeting with extended family, became a criminal offence – was the nation at war. Horrifying levels of social isolation were deliberately designed to present the country as mobilised in a collective effort against a malign enemy. Much of this went way beyond what we generally regard as authoritarianism: even the East German Stasi did not forbid children from hugging their grandparents, or outlaw sexual relations between people who lived in different households. Every other consideration had to be relegated in a heroic national struggle against an invading army whose objective was to kill as many of us as possible. And this enemy was particularly insidious because it was invisible”.

Sherelle Jacobs:

“We have been granted a rare glimpse of Power’s true nature away from the media gaze: how, in private, it schemes, swears, sulks and derides. On full display are all its dismal paradoxes: its fierce megalomania and constant seeking of reassurance from political aides; its tendency to groupthink and relentless sniping.

“One feels a new cold solidarity with 1970s [Watergate] America in its horror at the “low-grade quality of mind” that characterised their political class. But perhaps the strongest parallel with Watergate is that … the state’s operations seem suffused with humdrum nihilism. It is there in the amused crusades to “scare the pants” off people. It is in the deadpan mocking of holidaymakers locked up in quarantine [hotels] (“hilarious”). It is in the remorseless dedication to “the narrative”.

“How zealously the state threw themselves into implementing draconian measures, once it had decided at HQ that lockdowns were the correct populist call. We have come to learn how Hancock (Health Minister) conspired to “sit on” scientists, who he denounced as “wacky” or “loudmouth” for defying the official lines. We must digest the knowledge that civil servants insisted the “fear/guilt factor” was “vital” in “ramping up the messaging” during the dubious third lockdown. Just as unedifying is the revelation that, in the run up to this lockdown, politicians seized on a new variant as a tool to “roll the pitch with”. Perhaps most galling is Patrick Vallance’s (Scientific Adviser) advice that the Government should “suck up the media’s miserable interpretation of scientific data” to then “overdeliver” in an atmosphere of cranked up fear”.

Fraser Nelson:

“We see the PM appallingly served and briefed. Almost suspiciously so. At one stage, he is so in the dark about Covid’s fatality rate that he misinterprets a figure by a factor of one hundred. [Yet] the most revealing moment came in June 2020, when the mild-mannered Business Secretary, argued for certain rules to be advisory rather than compulsory. At this stage, Covid circulation had plummeted – deaths had fallen by 93 per cent from the peak: “Why is she against controlling the virus”, the minister complains. She is motivated by pure Conservative ideology! The Cabinet Secretary retorts [i.e., she is libertarian].

“The Lockdown Files include thousands of attachments sent between ministers. When I first came across them, I hoped to find high-quality top-level secret briefings. Instead, ministers were sharing newspaper articles and graphs found on social media. The quality of this information was often poor, sometimes abysmal”.

The ‘Lockdown Files’ – as published in the UK by The Telegraph – expose a toxic culture where any minister or civil servant asking “awkward” questions knew they were liable to be briefed against, sidelined or ostracised. ‘Off the boil’ Members of Parliament thought to oppose lockdowns were placed on a secret Red List, and the then Health Secretary’s aide wrote, “these guys’ re-election hinges on us: We know what they want”.

But the Files reveal something even more chilling. What was the overall public response to the publication of the files?

Plainly said: It is that a majority of the people are so numbed and passive – and so in lockstep – as the state inches them through a series of repeating emergencies towards a new kind of authoritarianism, that they don’t fuss greatly, or even notice much.

To be clear, the Lockdown episode is iconic of this new schema of control effected through hegemony, ideology and tech. Autonomy for the individual – and his or her search for a life, lived with meaning – now is displaced by its opposite: The instinct to subjugate and dominate, and to impose order on an inchoate and seemingly threatening world.

The surveillance-based liberal managerial state has, as Arta Moeini has written, ballooned into “a totalistic and aspiring globe-spanning Leviathan”, fraudulently disguised in the feel-good casing of liberal democracy – the key liberational elements of which, having been long replaced by their antonyms, in an Orwellian inversion.

To be clear: All the excesses of state power that occurred in the UK during the pandemic were permitted within the realms of the Western political system. The state may at any time suspend the rule of law for what it deems the greater good. The pandemic merely exposed the workings in extremis of liberal democracy – channelling Carl Schmitt’s notion of a “state of exception” being the source-code to state ‘sovereignty’ over the populace.

In this ethical vacuum, and with the capsize of societal meaning, western politicians can only snipe coarsely at one-another, Lord of the Rings-style, whilst hoping to surf whatever ‘the narrative’ and the media ‘play’ of the day can ‘up their level’ in the power matrix. To be blunt, in its lack of any deeper guiding principle, it is purely sociopathic.

However, in pushing the pendulum of the liberal schema so hard over towards the hegemony extremity, it has caused the other end to the spectrum of the overall liberal schema to catch fire: The demand to respect individual autonomy and freedom of expression. This antithesis is particularly apparent in the U.S.

Liberalism was conceived during the early French Revolution as a project of systemic liberation from oppressive social hierarchies, religion and cultural norms of the past, so that a new order of liberated individualism could come into being. Rousseau saw it as a radical clean break from the past – a disembedding of the individual from family, church and cultural norms, so that he or she could better evolve as a unitary component to a redeemed universal governance.

This was the meaning to liberalism in its early phase. However, the subsequent Reign of Terror and mass executions under the Jacobins signaled the schizophrenic connection between ‘liberation’ and the desire to force compliance on society. The persistent appeal of violent revolution versus imposed (Utopian) ‘redemption of humanity marks the two oppositional poles to the western psyche which today is being ‘resolved’ through the tilt to ‘hegemony’.

This inherent tension between the radical liberation of the individual and a conformist ‘world order’ was to be resolved via ‘new universal values’: Diversity, gender and equity – plus restitution awarded to the victims for earlier discrimination suffered. This ‘liquid modernity’ was thought to be ‘globally neutral’ (in a way that Enlightenment values were not), and therefore could underpin the western-led World Order.

The contradiction inherent to this was too evident: The Rest of World sees the ‘liberal’ order as an-all-too obvious device to prolong western power. They refuse its ‘missionary’ underside (this aspect was never present outside the Judeo-Christian Sphere), and the claim that the West should determine what values (whether Enlightenment or Woke) by which we all must live.

The non-West observes rather, a weakened West and no longer feels the need to offer fealty to a global ‘overlord’. The meta cycle of enforced westification (from Petrine Russia, Turkey, Egypt – and Iran) is over.

Its mystique, its thrall is gone, and though lockdown compliance in the UK (and Europe) was indeed achieved through ‘project fear’, the success came at the expense of public trust. To be plain: the authority of Authority in the West increasingly is distrusted – at home, as overseas.

The crisis of liberalism’ contradictions and waning authority deepens.

Carl Schmitt’s other two mantras were firstly, to keep power: ‘Use it’ (or lose it); and secondly, configure an ‘enemy’ as polarising and as ‘dark’ as possible in order to keep power – and to keep the masses fearful and compliant.

Hence, we have seen Biden – lacking an alternative – resorting to radical Manichaeism to bolster Authority against his domestic opponents in the U.S. (ironically casting them as enemies of ‘democracy’), whilst using the Ukraine war as the tool by which to cast the West’s war on Russia too, as an epic struggle between the Light and Dark. These Manichean ideological source-codes for now, dominate western liberalism.

But the West has put itself into a trap: ‘Going Manichean’ puts the West into an ideological straight-jacket. It is a crisis of the West’s own making. Put bluntly, Manichaeism is the antithesis to any negotiated solution, or off-ramp. Carl Schmitt was clear on this point: the intent of conjuring up the blackest of enmities, precisely was to preclude (liberal) negotiation: How could ‘virtue’ strike a bargain with ‘evil’?

The West is too dysfunctional and weak now to fight on all fronts. Yet there can be no retreat (without some de-legitimising humiliation of the West).

The West has gambled all on its fear-led, ‘emergency-crisis’ managed ‘control’ system to save itself.

It’s hopes now are pinned on its ‘Beware! The big boss has gone angry-mad’ act; he might do anything’, which it hopes will cause the world to back-off.

But the Rest of World is not backing off – it is becoming more assertive. Fewer believe what the western Élites say; fewer still trust their competence. The West has recklessly ‘placed its bet’; it may lose all. Or, more dangerously, in a fit of anger, it may kick over others’ gaming tables.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 03/15/2023 – 03:30

Asia’s Biggest Sources Of Electricity By Country

Asia’s Biggest Sources Of Electricity By Country

The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that Asia will account for half of the world’s electricity consumption by 2025, with one-third of global electricity being consumed in China.

To explore how this growing electricity demand is currently being met, Visual Capitalist’s Sam Parker and Selin Oğuz created the graphic below, mapping out Asia’s main sources of electricity by country, using data from the BP Statistical Review of World Energy and the IEA.

A Coal-Heavy Electricity Mix

Although clean energy has been picking up pace in Asia, coal currently makes up more than half of the continent’s electricity generation.

No Asian countries rely on wind, solar, or nuclear energy as their primary source of electricity, despite the combined share of these sources doubling over the last decade.

The above comparison shows that the slight drops in the continent’s reliance on coal, natural gas, and oil in the last decade have been absorbed by wind, solar, and hydropower. The vast growth in total electricity generated, however, means that a lot more fossil fuels are being burned now (in absolute terms) than at the start of the last decade, despite their shares dropping.

Following coal, natural gas comes in second place as Asia’s most used electricity source, with most of this demand coming from the Middle East and Russia.

Zooming in: China’s Big Electricity Demand

While China accounted for just 5% of global electricity demand in 1990, it is en route to account for 33% by 2025. The country is already the largest electricity producer in the world by far, annually generating nearly double the electricity produced by the second largest electricity producer in the world, the United States.

With such a large demand, the current source of China’s electricity is worthy of consideration, as are its plans for its future electricity mix.

Currently, China is one of the 14 Asian countries that rely on coal as its primary source of electricity. In 2021, the country drew 62% of its electricity from coal, a total of 5,339 TWh of energy. To put that into perspective, this is approximately three times all of the electricity generated in India in the same year.

Following coal, the remainder of China’s electricity mix is as follows.

Despite already growing by 1.5x in the last decade, China’s demand for electricity is still growing. Recent developments in the country’s clean energy infrastructure point to most of this growth being met by renewables.

China does also have ambitious plans in place for its clean energy transition beyond the next few years. These include increasing its solar capacity by 667% between 2025 and 2060, as well as having wind as its primary source of electricity by 2060.

Asia’s Road to Clean Energy

According to the IEA, the world reached a new all-time high in power generation-related emissions in 2022, primarily as a result of the growth in fossil-fuel-generated electricity in the Asia Pacific.

With that said, these emissions are set to plateau by 2025, with a lot of the global growth in renewables and nuclear power being seen in Asia.

Currently, nuclear power is of particular interest in the continent, especially with 2022’s energy crisis highlighting the need for energy independence and security. India, for instance, is set to have an 80% growth in its nuclear electricity generation in the next two years, with Japan, South Korea, and China following suit in increasing their nuclear capacity.

The road ahead also hints at other interesting insights, specifically when it comes to hydropower in Asia. With heatwaves and droughts becoming more and more commonplace as a result of climate change, the continent may be poised to learn some lessons from Europe’s record-low hydropower generation in 2022, diverting its time and resources to other forms of clean energy, like wind and solar.

Whatever the future holds, one thing is clear: with ambitious plans already underway, Asia’s electricity mix may look significantly different within the next few decades.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 03/15/2023 – 02:45