The famous Pentagon and US government-linked think tank RAND Corporation has finally attempted to inject some rare realism into the Washington establishment’s thinking and planning regarding the Ukraine war. So far throughout eleven months of conflict which remains largely stalemated, though the last few days have seen Russian military momentum and advance grow in the Bakhmut offensive, US and NATO officials have unhesitatingly and enthusiastically cheered on every major escalation of the West’s involvement.

But the new 32-page RAND document has sounded the alarm over the dangers of this approach, which is unusual given the think tank is notorious for being the hawkish academic arm of the military-industrial complex. This was especially the case in the Vietnam war era, when RAND became infamous for its fueling the policy behind various insurgency and counterinsurgency fiascos in Vietnam, Laos, and Thailand.

RAND now argues that in Ukraine “US interests would be best served by avoiding a protracted conflict,” and that “costs and risks of a long war…outweigh the possible benefits.”

The policy document lays out that allowing the conflict extend longer, which we should note the Biden administration has almost guaranteed with its decision this past week to supply advanced battle tanks, is itself a severe danger.

The abstract on the introductory page reads as follows: 

The authors argue that, in addition to minimizing the risks of major escalation, U.S. interests would be best served by avoiding a protracted conflict. The costs and risks of a long war in Ukraine are significant and outweigh the possible benefits of such a trajectory for the United States. Although Washington cannot by itself determine the war’s duration, it can take steps that make an eventual negotiated end to the conflict more likely.

Ultimately the study (pdf) explains why from a strategic point of view based on real US interests, there’s little benefit for Washington in rolling back Russia’s control of territory in east; however, there remains immense risk and high costs that would be attached to it.

The study additionally concludes of ongoing efforts to punish Russia economically and militarily that
“further incremental weakening [of Russia] is arguably no longer as significant a benefit for US interests.” Alternately it warns that the impact on energy markets and food in the at-all-costs drive of “keeping the Ukrainian state economically solvent” may not be worth it, given these costs will only “multiply over time.”

Similar to some recent media reports based on the reluctant acknowledgement of US officials, RAND also points out that continuing NATO military aid to Ukraine “could also become unsustainable after a certain period,” given the likelihood that Russia may “reverse Ukrainian battlefield gains.”

Another crucial admission in the document is that the Ukraine war distracts and wastes precious defense resources away from another important theatre of operations: China and east Asia. It states:

Beyond the potential for Russian gains and the economic consequences for Ukraine, Europe, and the world, a long war would also have on sequences for U.S. foreign policy. The U.S. ability to focus on its other global priorities —particularly, competition with China— will remain constrained as long as the war is absorbing senior policymakers’ time and U.S. military resources.

And although Russia will be more dependent on China regardless of when the war ends, Washington does have a long-term interest in ensuring that Moscow does not become completely subordinated to Beijing. A longer war that increases Russia’s dependence could provide China advantages in its competition with the United States.

Thus open-ended and deepened Pentagon involvement in helping Ukraine to push back Russia ultimately benefits Beijing. 

But at this point, the authors ask, what can be done? RAND recommends the following course to be put into action immediately: 

A dramatic, overnight shift in U.S. policy is politically impossible—both domestically and with allies—and would be unwise in any case. But developing these instruments now and socializing them with Ukraine and with U.S. allies might help catalyze the eventual start of a process that could bring this war to a negotiated end in a time frame that would serve U.S. interests. The alternative is a long war that poses major challenges for the United States, Ukraine, and the rest of the world.

…So even RAND is sane enough to see that the Western world is headed for disaster if it keeps up this jingoistic push to support Kiev at all costs and with no off-ramp.

* * *

Meanwhile, most top decision-makers and commanders are unlikely to heed the memo…

🇺🇸🇪🇺🇷🇺Journalist(1:05 of the video):”We are ready to a direct confrontation with Russia?”

“We are” – Chair of the NATO Military Committee Rob Bauer pic.twitter.com/GbrzgYzMN4

— AZ 🛰🌏🌍🌎 (@AZgeopolitics) January 28, 2023

Authored by Beth Brelje via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Holding bullhorns and sometimes graphic signs depicting aborted babies, sidewalk ministers around the United States have seconds to reach the hearts of pregnant women moments before they walk into abortion facilities.

“We had one mother who came up to me on the sidewalk. She saw some signs of ours, stopped, and said, ‘Is that real?’ It was a photo of a baby that had been aborted,” Denny Green, 56, of Cumberland, Virginia, told The Epoch Times. “We let her know, ‘Yeah, that is real.’ She said, ‘If that’s real, I can’t do that to my baby,’ and she decided not to take her baby’s life.”

Green said the group followed up with the woman, helping with food and other needs but eventually lost contact, until five years later.

“She saw us out on the street again, stopped and let us meet her little girl,” he said. “That has happened numerous times. We’re there for the long haul, if they need us, as a friend or as a help. We’re there to walk with them.”

Green is among 11 people federally charged with the Freedom of Access to Clinic Entrances (FACE) Act for a March 2021 pro-life demonstration at a now-closed abortion facility in Mount Juliet, Tennessee. The FACE Act prohibits interference with obtaining or providing abortions.

In this case, the abortion facility was inside a larger medical building that had other, unrelated medical offices. Some of those charged stood in the hallway, blocking the door, while others stood down the hall, closer to an elevator. They sang Christian songs, prayed, and spoke to women seeking to enter the facility, which is shown in a video captured by one of the group members.

“Sir, that baby is a blessing from God,” one of the 11 told a couple who walked toward the abortion facility door, saw the people in the hallway, then got back on the elevator.

“Yeah. More power to you,” the man with the woman said as the elevator doors closed.

Local police arrested some members of the group and charged them with trespassing. Once the trespassing charges were handled, those arrested thought the incident was behind them. But 19 months later, in October 2022, they were charged by the FBI.

By this time, the abortion facility was closed due to a change in Tennessee law that now bans abortion after a baby’s heartbeat is detected.

The landscape on the frontline of abortion is changing.

While sidewalk counselors preach, most often from the sidewalk, abortion facilities have volunteer escorts to walk women from their cars to the facility doors. The escorts sometimes try to drown out the voices of preachers and counselors by blowing whistles, running loud leaf blowers, or screaming vulgarities at them.

Shortly after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, President Joe Biden issued an executive order for his administration to address “the heightened risk related to seeking and providing reproductive health care.” He formed the Reproductive Rights Task Force, a Justice Department-led group focused, in part, on enforcing the FACE Act.

Passed in 1994, the FACE Act chilled some pro-life activity at abortion facilities. Starting in the late 1980s, thousands of pro-life activists willing to face low-level trespassing charges used to hold sit-ins, pray, and carry signs at abortion facilities around the country. But after the fatal shootings of two abortionists and three facility workers in the early 1990s, the FACE Act—which calls for federal prison and fines—was implemented. Fewer people were willing to risk federal charges and left the movement.

Still, some pro-life activists are willing to risk their freedom to save babies headed for death.

Now, the Biden administration is cracking down on them. In the 10 years between 2011 and 2021, the Department of Justice criminally charged 17 people with FACE Act violations, according to the DOJ website. In 2022 alone, the DOJ charged 26 people. The Epoch Times requested comment from the DOJ.

Stiffer Penalties

Paul Vaughn, a father of 11 in Centerville, Tennessee, was preparing to take his children to school on Oct. 5, 2022, when the FBI pounded on his door with their guns drawn, terrifying the children, he said. FBI agents put him in handcuffs, drove him to Nashville, put him in a holding cell, and charged him with violating the FACE Act and with conspiracy to violate civil rights for his participation in the Tennessee event.

By 2 p.m., he said, they released him onto the streets of Nashville with no phone or wallet to find his way home and with a new list of pretrial restrictions to follow, such as where he was allowed to travel.

In addition to there being more FACE Act arrests recently, the penalties are higher. Vaughn faces 11 years in federal prison because of the added conspiracy charge.

“I’ve got an 18-month-old at home and several other children that will spend a good part of their developing years without dad at home, if I end up going to prison for an extended time,” Vaughn told The Epoch Times.

He said he and his wife have cried and prayed about the situation many times.

“God is in control,” he said. “He knows the beginning from the end. My children will see their dad at least had the courage to stand for what’s right.”

There are two federal conspiracy statutes for these kinds of cases, Stephen Crampton, Vaughn’s attorney and senior counsel at the Thomas More Society, told The Epoch Times. One requires that, for a conspiracy violation, the penalty cannot be greater than the penalty for the underlying crime.

“In this case, a first offense, nonviolent FACE violation, you only have a misdemeanor charge, up to one year in prison. So if they were to use that particular generic conspiracy statute, all they could get for the conspiracy part is another one year,” Crampton said, stressing that this is the first time he recalls a conspiracy charge in connection to a FACE charge.

“They dug deep in their little bag of tricks and found the conspiracy to Violate Civil Rights statute and charged us with that one, which carries a sentence up to 10 years,” Crampton said. “What was the civil right we were talking about with FACE? It was abortion. So now they’re going to pretend that the civil rights they’re dealing with, is the right to access to so-called reproductive health care. … Civil rights was always abortion, not the right to go in and get a pregnancy test. Nobody in the pro-life movement is going to engage in concerted activities to prohibit that action. So there’s all these little white lies that they’re using to try to throw the book at Paul and other folks since Roe v. Wade has been overturned.”

The conspiracy charge that some in this case face stems from using Facebook to communicate about meeting and live-streaming the group standing in the hallway.

Read more here…

North Korea has issued somewhat rare statements lashing out at growing US military involvement in Ukraine, with the influential sister of Kim Jong Un condemning the decision to transfer heavy battle tanks.

Kim Yo Jong’s statement came on the heels this week of the US confirming it will send 31 M1 Abrams tanks to Ukraine, and they were her first public remarks in months. She charged that Washington is crossing a “red line” in its drive to escalate a “proxy war” aimed at regime change in Russia. “I express serious concern over the US escalating the war situation by providing Ukraine with military hardware for ground offensive,” said Kim.

“The US is the arch criminal which poses serious threat and challenge to the strategic security of Russia and pushes the regional situation to the present grave phase,” she added, in her official statement as vice-department director of the Central Committee of the Workers Party of Korea.

“I do not doubt that any military hardware the US and the West boast of will be burnt into pieces in the face of the indomitable fighting spirit and might of the heroic Russian army and people,” she added.

Importantly, at a moment the US is accusing Pyongyang of supplying Russia’s military with artillery shells and other lethal equipment, particularly the Wagner Group, Kim stressed that North Korea will always “stand in the same trench” with Russia.

The US throughout months of the war going back to the summer has issued repeat vague allegations that North Korea supplying Russian forces with tens of thousands of artillery shells, which both sides have denied.

But starting last month the Biden administration narrowed the allegations to Pyongyang’s support to the Putin-linked mercenary Wagner Group.

“Wagner is searching around the world for arms suppliers to support its military operations in Ukraine,” White House national security spokesman John Kirby had said in a late December press briefing. “We can confirm that North Korea has completed an initial arms delivery to Wagner, which paid for that equipment.” 

The US now says it has satellite evidence of the transfers, describing weapons-laden trains going back and forth over the small stretch of Russia-North Korea border in the far east.

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

Jack Phillip, the Colorado baker who brought the challenge in Masterpiece Cakeshop, Ltd. v. Colorado Civil Rights Commission has again lost an appeal in Colorado state court. After the Supreme Court effectively punted on the issue of his free speech and free exercise challenges to the Colorado Anti-Discrimination Act (“CADA”), which protects against the denial of service in a place of public accommodation based on one’s identity. After the 2018 decision, Phillip faced additional demands including the creation of a gender transitioning cake. The Colorado Court of Appeals ruled on Thursday that the refusal to make the cake requested by Autumn Scardina did not constitute free speech.

I have a forthcoming law review article on free speech protections for the speech involved in this and similar cases around the country: “The Unfinished Masterpiece: Speech Compulsion and the Evolving Jurisprudence over Religious Speech” (forthcoming 2023).

Many years ago, I wrote an academic piece on how anti-discrimination laws would inevitably collide with free-speech and free-exercise rights. Those conflicts continued to mount across the country. In 2018, the court was thought to be ready to clarify the applicable standards in the case of a religious cake shop owner who refused to make cakes for same-sex couples. The court ultimately punted in Masterpiece Cakeshop, leaving uncertainty over the constitutional limitations on cities and states under anti-discrimination law.

Smith’s case has long been a focus for some of us. I have written in favor of taking a free-speech approach to these cases rather than treating them as conflicts under the Constitution’s religion clauses. For that reason, one aspect of this grant of review was immediately notable. The court agreed to consider only one question: “Whether applying a public-accommodation law to compel an artist to speak or stay silent violates the Free Speech Clause of the First Amendment.”

For Phillips, he has spent over a decade in state and federal courts. In the latest decision, the appellate court found that the creation of the cake can be “inherently expressive and therefore entitled to First Amendment protection.” However, the court still denied free speech protections by dismissing the notion that this particular cake was expressive:

“We conclude that creating a pink cake with blue frosting is not inherently expressive and any message or symbolism it provides to 39 an observer would not be attributed to the baker. Thus, CADA does not compel Masterpiece and Phillips to speak through the creation and sale of such a cake to Scardina.”

The court used the same rationale of the cakes design to deny Phillips religious claims:

“We also reject Masterpiece and Phillips’ argument that the statute punishes them for exercising their religious beliefs because CADA is “applie[d] through the Commission’s purported use of an ‘offensiveness rule.’” For the reasons previously articulated, even if we were to assume such a standard exists, the trial court’s ruling in this case was not predicated on the perceived “offensiveness” of the message, but rather on the fact that the pink and blue cake expressed no message, whether secular or religious.”

Fortunately, 303 Creative has the makings of a major free speech victory.  The case involves a challenge of a web designer who was not only told that she must prepare websites for same-sex marriages despite her religious objections but that she cannot post a statement on her own website on her views of same-sex marriage. For free speech advocates, it is a nightmarish combination of compelled speech and censored speech.

With this denial of his constitutional rights, Phillips moves closer to a new appeal to the Supreme Court, which left him to years of additional litigation by effectively punting his case in 2018.

Here is the decision: Scardina v. Masterpiece Cakeshop Inc., No. 2023COA8 (Colo. App. Ct. Jan. 26, 2023), https://www.courts.state.co.us/Courts/Court_of_Appeals/Opinion/2023/21CA1142-PD.pdf.

Throughout the eleven months of conflict in Ukraine, Kiev authorities have on multiple occasions charged that Russian airstrikes have targeted hospitals, clinics, apartment blocks, and other civilian sites. But on Saturday Russia’s Defense Ministry said that hospitals in Russian-controlled regions are being targeted by Ukraine’s military. What’s more is that the Russians say a deadly attack against civilians was carried out using US weaponry. 

The ministry said 14 were killed and 24 wounded – most of them “hospital patients and medical staff” when a hospital was struck by rockets in the Luhansk Oblast town of Novoaidar. A statement alleged that on Saturday morning “the Ukrainian armed forces deliberately attacked the building of a district hospital with rockets of a U.S.-made HIMARS multiple launch rocket system.”

It further indicated the hospital had been providing “necessary medical assistance to the local population and military personnel for many months” – while calling the crime “deliberate”. 

“A deliberate missile strike on a known active civilian medical facility is, without doubt, a grave war crime by the Kiev regime,” the ministry said, according to the AFP. The statement further noted that “All the victims are being provided with professional medical aid.”

Defense officials are now using language that echoes the Ukrainian side and Western side, vowing that the ‘war crime’ would be investigated and that everyone that planned and implemented the strikes would be “brought to justice.” If Ukraine acknowledges the attack, it will likely focus on calling the hospital a ‘military target’ – given the location also treated Russian soldiers.

Meanwhile, on the other side, EU efforts to establish a special Russian war crimes tribunal moved forward this week. “The European Union’s assembly called on the member states on Thursday to back the creation of a special court to judge any war crime of aggression by Russia in Ukraine,” AP reported.

WATCH: #BNNUkraine Reports

Footage shows the aftermath of a Ukrainian Army strike on a hospital in #Novoaidar #Luhansk, according to Russian Defense sources.

The hospital appears to have been completely destroyed in the footage. pic.twitter.com/SjtXwbnwbw

— Gurbaksh Singh Chahal (@gchahal) January 28, 2023

“The nonbinding resolution was approved by a 472-19 vote with 33 abstentions in the European Parliament, and underscored the EU’s willingness to make sure Moscow should be brought to justice for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine,” AP detailed.

Currently, Russia is escalating attacks in an around the strategic Donetsk region city of Bakhmut, with international and Western reports acknowledging that Russian forces have the battlefield momentum and upper hand at this point.

Western sources are now advising Kyiv to strategically withdraw | @lucaswebber009 https://t.co/XHy9FHJBPw

— UnHerd (@unherd) January 28, 2023

The Wall Street Journal reports Saturday that “Inside Bakhmut, gunshots echoed from the east side of the river that bisects the city. Waves of Russian troops were pushing in from the east, and two pontoon bridges across the river hit this week were passable only by foot, Ukrainian soldiers said.”

“Ukrainians said they were fighting for each block, but were outnumbered and outgunned, and the Russians were slowly taking territory in the city,” the report adds. Some war monitors have said the Russians have the city almost encircled at this critical juncture. 

Via The Cradle,

Two settlers were critically injured in a shooting near Silwan in east occupied Jerusalem on 28 January, Israel’s paramedic service said. According to Hebrew media reports, the two settlers were a father and son who were volunteers with Israel’s Magen David Adom emergency service.

The Magen David Adom service reported that its medics had treated two individuals on Maalot Ir David Street near the east Jerusalem neighborhood of Silwan before transporting them to Shaare Zedek Medical Center.

📹 متابعة صفا | اللحظات الأولى لتنفيذ عملية إطلاق النار في بلدة سلوان بالقدس والتي أسفرت عن إصابة مستوطنين اثنين pic.twitter.com/cSDwKxD5SU

— وكالة صفا (@SafaPs) January 28, 2023

The two males were identified as 23-years-old and 47-years-old, and are reportedly in serious yet stable condition, the hospital said. According to the paramedics, they both sustained gunshot wounds to the upper body.

The shooter was identified as 13-year-old Mohammad Alaywat. He was “neutralized and injured” a police spokesman told Israeli army radio, and is reportedly in Israeli custody.

“The Jerusalem District Police and border police fighters arrested 42 suspects — some of them from the terrorist’s (immediate) family, relatives and (neighbors),” a police statement said. Alaywat’s family, however, have made a statement denying that he was behind the shooting, possibly in fear over his safety.

The attack comes in the aftermath of a deadly east Jerusalem shooting carried out by 21-year-old Khairi Alqam in the Neve Yaakov settlement, just one day earlier. The Neve Yaakov shooting left 10 Israeli settlers dead and several injured in what is being described as the worst attack against Israelis in over a decade.

Surveillance footage shows the moment Mohammed Aleiwat, 13 years of age, opened fire on settlers in Silwan, occupied Al-Quds. One settler wielding a rifle was directly wounded. Aleiwat was only lightly wounded and is receiving medical attention while under investigation. pic.twitter.com/mCRaCA5mBb

— Resistance News Network (@ResistNewsNet) January 28, 2023

The Neve Yaakov attack was a direct response to a massacre committed by Israeli troops at the Jenin refugee camp, in the occupied West Bank, on January 26. Following the massacre, militant factions fired two rockets into Israel, which were subsequently met with Israeli airstrikes on the besieged Gaza Strip.

On 28 January, Israeli police declared that the ‘national alert’ has been raised to the ‘highest level’ all across the occupied territories and West Bank.

Yesterday’s attack at the Neve Yaakov settlement was described by the resistance as a ‘natural response’ to Israeli violence and oppression, and “is a field message to the extremist Ben Gvir and the occupation government,” the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) said in a statement on January 27.

Before Saturday’s incident, Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir made a call to “arm all Israelis,” and vowed a retaliatory Israeli operation across east Jerusalem in response to the Neve Yaakov shooting, suggesting that an even further escalation of tensions may soon commence.

Western media outlets flooded the airways with hope for Ukraine this week as the US prepares to send 31 main battle tanks to the wartorn country in Eastern Europe to counter Russian aggression ahead of spring. What wasn’t highly publicized is that these M1 Abrams are a modified version and will be stripped of “secret” uranium armor. 

Following the news of NATO-made tanks set to flood Ukraine, the former head of Russia’s space agency Dmitry Rogozin told the Russian newspaper Pravda that “Marker,” a new robo-tank, will be able to ‘destroy Western tanks, including American Abrams and German Leopards.’ 

Rogozin explained the robot tank automatically recognizes and attacks Ukrainian equipment, including NATO tanks, all because of its artificial intelligence system and machine learning technology. 

“The combat version of the Marker robot has an electronic catalog in the control system that contains images of targets both in the visible and in the infrared range,” he said.

The director of the Air Defense Museum, retired colonel Yuri Knutov, told Lenta.Ru, a Russian newspaper, “the robot can thus identify NATO-made tanks” and will be “armed with a machine gun and an anti-tank missile with a range of up to about six kilometers.” 

On Wednesday, Rogozin wrote on his Telegram Channel:

“The shock version of the Marker robot, which will enter the special operation zone [Donbas] in February, will be able to automatically detect and hit Ukrainian equipment, including American Abrams tanks and German Leopard tanks.”

One major issue Ukanian forces might encounter with the M1 Abrams, besides weight and a gas-guzzling turbine engine, is that these are older versions and stripped of “secret” uranium armor. This could mean these tanks are vulnerable. 

According to Politico, the export of Abrams with classified armor is forbidden as there are fears the tanks, if captured, could be reverse-engineered. 

The lingering question is if these stripped-down Abrams can withstand an anti-tank rocket. 

This is the Abram tank … 31 of these are sent by the Biden Administration to Ukraine in a war against Russia !!

pic.twitter.com/XUmI3pJS3i

— حسن سجواني 🇦🇪 Hassan Sajwani (@HSajwanization) January 26, 2023

Or better yet, one from a Russian robot tank. 

Authored by Caden Pearson via The Epoch Times,

A coalition of 25 states is suing the Biden administration over a Department of Labor (DOL) rule that affects millions of retirement accounts, the attorneys general of multiple states involved in the lawsuit announced on Wednesday.

The new rule set to take effect on Jan. 30 allows 401(k) managers to invest clients’ money in environmental, social, and governance (ESG) funds, a move that 25 states argue violates the Employee Retirement Income Security Act of 1974 (ERISA).

According to the lawsuit, the rule puts at risk the retirement savings accounts of 152 million workers, or two-thirds of the U.S. population, totaling $12 trillion in assets, in the name of promoting the Biden administration’s climate agenda.

It does this, the states argue, by making changes to the rule that authorizes fund managers (fiduciaries) to consider and promote “nonpecuniary benefits” (benefits not related to money or financial gain) when making investment decisions.

“Contrary to Congress’s clear intent, these changes make it easier for fiduciaries to act with mixed motives. They also make it harder for beneficiaries to police such conduct,” the lawsuit states (pdf).

The 25 states argue in the lawsuit that the Supreme Court concluded that ERISA requires fund managers to put the financial benefits of investments first and not any nonpecuniary benefits. The lawsuit also contends that the high court directly tied the term “benefits” to “income” and doesn’t cover nonpecuniary benefits.

Environmental, social, and governance (ESG). (Deemerwha studio/Shutterstock)

ESG Investment Strategies ‘Impose a Leftist Social and Economic Agenda’

Indiana Attorney General Todd Rokita said ESG investment strategies are not designed to maximize financial returns for clients.

“Rather, they have been concocted entirely to impose a leftist social and economic agenda that cannot otherwise be implemented through the ballot box,” he said in a statement on Wednesday.

ESG funds generally invest in companies that oppose fossil fuels, support unionization, and stress gender and racial diversity over merit, even if it results in a lower return for the client. ERISA is in place to safeguard American workers’ retirement savings and ensure that fund managers make investments with the highest potential return for their clients.

Indiana Attorney General Todd Rokita speaks in Schererville, Ind., on Nov. 8, 2022. (Darron Cummings/AP Photo)

Rokita has been a vocal critic of ESG investing and has taken several actions to combat it, including issuing an official advisory opinion clarifying that Indiana and its investment managers must prioritize the financial interests of state employees and retirees, refraining from using investment strategies guided or influenced by ESG considerations.

The Indiana attorney general said he’s also investigating three of the largest investment managers, saying that “woke big businesses are collaborating with their leftist allies to subvert the will of the people.”

“That’s contrary to the letter and spirit of the law,” he said.

The 25 states participating in the lawsuit are Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, New Hampshire, North Dakota, Ohio, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Virginia, West Virginia, and Wyoming.

States Argue the Rule Harms

The states argue that the new rule will lead to a decrease in specific tax revenue from retirement distributions, thereby causing a loss of tax revenue for the states.

Further, the states claim the rule will harm the economic well-being of their residents and will result in reduced investment in the fossil fuel industry, which will decrease revenue, employment, and overall economic activity because several of the states, such as Louisiana, Texas, Utah, and Wyoming, have significant oil and gas deposits.

“Some impacts from reduced investment in the fossil fuel industry will be difficult or impossible to reverse, such that the harm is irreparable,” the lawsuit states. “Even if those impacts could be reduced to monetary harm, damages resulting from the 2022 Rule are presumably not recoverable as a result of the federal government’s sovereign immunity, such that those damages would be an irreparable harm.”

Flared natural gas is burned off at Apache Corporations operations at the Deadwood natural gas plant in the Permian Basin, Garden City, Texas on Feb. 5, 2015. (Spencer Platt/Getty Images)

Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton called the new rule “an affront to every American concerned about their retirement account.”

“The fact that the Biden Administration is now opting to risk the financial security of working-class Americans to advance a woke political agenda is insulting and illegal,” he said in a statement on Wednesday.

“For generations, federal law has required that fiduciaries place their clients’ financial interests at the forefront, and I intend to fight the Biden Administration in court to ensure that they cannot put hard-working Americans’ retirement savings at risk.”

Rule Change

President Joe Biden issued executive orders in January and May 2021 directing government agencies to review regulations put in place by the Trump administration, including those on ESG investments.

The DOL began reviewing the 2020 regulations on ESG investments in March 2021 and announced it would not enforce them during the review. The DOL proposed a new rule change in October 2021, which the lawsuit argues is different from the 2020 regulation in several ways.

The new rule eliminates the objective pecuniary/nonpecuniary standard in the 2020 rule and instead formally incorporates subjective ESG concepts into the ERISA regulations, according to the lawsuit. In addition, the new rule doesn’t provide any definition or advice on what constitutes an ESG factor.

The new rule also undermines a fund manager’s prudence obligations, the lawsuit claims. Instead of focusing on an investment’s risk and return, a fund manager could consider the economic effects of climate change and other ESG factors in their analysis of the particular investment or investment course of action.

Citing the preamble to the new rule, the lawsuit states that the new rule tells fund managers to consider multiple factors when analyzing the risk and return of investments, such as “the potential risks and opportunities related to climate change,” the makeup of a company’s leadership, and the company’s efforts toward diversity and inclusion within their workforce.

The Epoch Times contacted the DOL for comment.

Does this constitute a fresh official US confession of sorts?

US Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs Victoria Nuland during a Thursday Senate hearing positively celebrated the destruction of the Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipelines, due to a sabotage attack on September 26 of last year. Below she’s seen in live Senate testimony video  praising the act which turned NS2 into a “hunk of metal at the bottom of the sea” – in her words…

At a Senate hearing, top US diplomat Victoria Nuland celebrated the Nord Stream 2 pipeline bombing:

“Senator Cruz, like you, I am, and I think the administration is, very gratified to know that Nord Stream 2 is now, as you like to say, a hunk of metal at the bottom of the sea.” pic.twitter.com/KS5OM4N165

— Aaron Maté (@aaronjmate) January 27, 2023

In the hearing, Nuland was questioned by Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) over the issue of past sanctions against Nord Stream 2 and how effective she thinks they would have been. Nuland and Cruz were having an exchange based on hypotheticals in hindsight. 

That’s when she made the surprise comments, offering the following perspective… “Like you, I am, and I think the administration is, very gratified to know that Nord Stream 2 is now, as you like to say, a hunk of metal at the bottom of the sea,” Nuland said with a partial grin on her face.

“Gratified” is not a word we’ve heard too often coming out of Western officials to describe their perspective on the sabotage event – certainly not in Europe at least.

Nuland went on to claim, however, that she had previously been pressing hard to “prevent this war” in negotiations with Russia.

See the full exchange between Sen. Cruz and Nuland here:

But given her obvious glee at Nord Stream 2 having been turned into a “a hunk of metal” after a sabotage blast by an unknown entity, we highly doubt she ever wanted “peace” at all… actually quite the opposite.

Russia, and even in some cases UN advisers and diplomats have pointed the finger at the US and its allies, saying it was only Washington that had everything to gain from NS2 being permanently disabled.

Authored by Egon von Greyerz via GoldSwitzerland.com,

“The risk of over-tightening by the European Central Bank is nothing less than catastrophic” says Prof Kenneth Rogoff .

At Davos he also said:

“Italy is extremely vulnerable. But this could pop anywhere. Global debt has gone up massively since the pandemic: public debt, corporate debt, everything.”

Rogoff believes that it is a miracle that the world averted a financial crisis in 2022, but the odds of a major accident are shortening as the delayed effects of past tightening feed through.

As Rogoff said: 

“We were very fortunate that we didn’t have a global systemic event in 2022, and we can count our blessings for that, but rates are still going higher and the risk keeps rising.”

But lurking in the murkiness is also the global financial assets/liabilities which is almost $500 trillion including the shadow banking system at 46% of the total. The shadow banking sector includes  pension funds, hedge funds and other financial institutions which are largely unregulated.

Shadow banking is not subject to the normal mark-to-market rules. Thus no one knows what the real position or losses are. This means that central banks are in the dark when it comes to evaluation of the real risks of the system.

Clearly, I am not the only one harping on about the catastrophic global debt/liability situation.

And no one knows the extent of total global derivatives. But if they have grown in line with debt and also with the shadow banking system, they could easily be in excess of $3 quadrillion.

Cultures don’t die overnight, but the US has been in decline since at least the Vietnam war in the 1960s. Interestingly, the US has not had a real Budget surplus since the early 1930s with a handful of years of exception.

But when you, like the US, live on borrowed time and borrowed money, it becomes increasingly difficult to keep up appearances. In 1971, the pressures on the US economy and currency became too great.  Thus Nixon closed the Gold Window with the dollar having lost over 98% in real terms since then. This is of course a total catastrophe and a guarantee that the remaining 2% fall to ZERO will come in the near term future, whether it takes 5 or 10 years for the dollar to reach oblivion. Remember that the final 2% is 100% from today!

The US, EU and Japan have now reached the stage when no one wants their debt. So sovereign debt of these nations is no longer a question of “passing the parcel” but keeping the parcel. When every third party holder of these debts is a seller, who will buy?

These three countries will end up holding their own debt. Japan already holds over 50% of its debt. Before the Western Ponzi scheme comes to an end, these three nations will virtually hold 100% of their own debt. At that point, the bonds will be worthless and interest rates will have reached infinity. Not a pretty prospect!

US – PERFECT RECIPE FOR DISASTER

The final phase of all empires always includes excessive deficits and debts, inflation, a collapsing currency, decadence and war. And the US qualifies perfectly in all those categories.

Ernest Hemingway stated it superbly:

The first panacea of a mismanaged nation is inflation of the currency; the second is war.
Both bring temporary prosperity;
both bring a permanent ruin.
But both are the refuge of political
and economic opportunists. 

The US has failed in every war since the Vietnam war, including the Yugoslav Wars, Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria and Libya. The results have been massive casualties and destruction of the countries, often leading to economic misery, anarchy and terrorism.

The Ukrainian war is not between Ukraine and Russia but between the US and Russia as I discussed in a previous article (Link). The clear proof that there is no desire for peace from the US is that they are sending money and weapons to Ukraine in the $100s of billions and “encouraging” an increasingly suffering Europe to do the same. But they are not sending any peace negotiators to Russia in an attempt to end the war. This is very ominous.

The geopolitical situation is now on a knife edge with two major nuclear powers fighting about a relatively insignificant country. This is how major wars normally start.

Let us hope that the current conflict does not lead to a major nuclear war since that would be the end of the world. Thus not worth to speculate about the outcome of this high risk scenario.

But the economic war and the collapse of the US dominated financial system is not just  inevitable but also catastrophic for the Western economies.

A COMMODITY DOMINATED WORLD

As the hegemony of the US is coming to an end, the dominance of the decadent West is moving quickly to the East and South. Commodity based countries like the enlarged BRICS will dominate for the next few decades and probably longer. Oil and gas will form the base of this shift but also many other commodities including gold which is now starting a new era.

It is likely that 2023 will be the first year of many when we will see a strong rise in gold just like 2000 – 2011 which saw a 7.5X gain.

The end of the Western debt based cycle and the rise of the Eastern and Southern commodity cycle is well illustrated in the graph below

OIL, GOLD TO GO UP > 9X AGAINST STOCKS

The S&P Commodity Index relative to Stocks has recently made a 50 year low. Just to return to the mean, the index would need to go up 4X. But when long term cycles turn up from a historical low, they tend to trend higher and longer than anyone expects. So a move past the 1990 high of 9 is very likely. This would mean that commodities, and especially oil and gold, relative to stocks would move up more than 9X!

This  9X move  would obviously involve a combination of falling stocks and rising commodity prices.

The expected move of the index confirms the shift from the West, based on an unsound and debt infested system, to the East & South, based on commodities.

Much of this move is based on the fossil fuels of the countries involved – to the chagrin of the climate movement zealots.

In today’s woke world, there is a tendency to believe that we can change all the laws of nature and science. This is the case both in the economy and climate.  Bankers and governments are confident that they can create permanent prosperity by printing worthless pieces of paper believing that these represent real and lasting value and wealth.

Well surprise, surprise, these people will soon have the shock of a lifetime as all that printed money returns to its intrinsic value of ZERO.

A debt based economy eventually becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.

The higher the debt, the more the debt needs to grow in a never ending vicious circle. In the end the debt cycle becomes a perpetual motion Ponzi scheme……. UNTIL IT ALL CRASHES!

The debt feeds on itself and the more that is issued, the more needs to be issued. As inflation rises, the escalating interest cost on the debt leads to more debt. Next is defaults, both private and foreign. Then the $2-3 quadrillion derivatives, a great part of which is in the shadow banking system, comes under pressure. This leads to massive further debt creation by the Fed and other central banks, desperately trying to save the system.

This will eventually lead to what von Mises called:  “…. a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved.”

But remember that we are here talking about the Western financial system. The economic sun in the East will rise strongly and eventually be the guiding light for the world economy.

The debt based US and West will to quote Hemingway decline “first gradually and then suddenly.”  So due to the $2+ quadrillion size of the problem, the biggest part of the decline is unlikely to take more than 10 years and it could be a lot faster, especially at the end.

But the climate zealots

 will have to wait to 2050 to learn that through their actions they didn’t manage to limit the increase in temperature to 1.5 degrees. But with a lot of luck, climate cycles might be on their side and make the weather much colder.

Personally I believe that cycles determine the climate and not humans.

The climate cycle graph below covering 11,000 years shows that there has been numerous periods with warmer temperatures than currently. At the peak of the Roman Empire 2000 years ago, Rome had a tropical climate.

Fossil fuels produce 83% of the world’s energy today. According to forecasts this percentage is unlikely to come down significantly in the next 50 years.

Partly due to the increased cost of producing energy, fossil fuel production will fall by 26% by 2048. Increases in nuclear and renewables will not compensate for this decline.

If the world stops using fossil fuels, the world economy would totally collapse. Sadly the climate activist movement does not seem to worry about such disastrous consequences.

So it seems fairly clear that for a very long time, the world will be dependent on fossil fuels in order for the economy and population not to collapse.

For the above reasons, the commodity based countries will soon dominate the world and that for a very long time.

The constellations of commodity rich nations are forming rapidly.

Firstly we have the BRICS countries which currently consist of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. Many countries are in the process of joining BRICS including Saudi Arabia, Iran, Algeria, Argentina and Turkey.

It is the enlarged BRICS aim to bypass the dollar and create their own trading currency.

Many talk about the Petroyuan replacing the Petrodollar but what would everyone do with the Chinese currency since it isn’t freely convertible. Better then to have a currency linked to several commodity countries like Special Drawing Rights. This would create more stability and usability. The Credit Suisse analyst Pozsar calls this Bretton Woods III.

There is also the EAEU or Eurasia Economic Union with Russia leading plus China, India, Iran, Turkey and UAE involved.

The SCO – the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation headquartered in China is also an important force. The SCO is a political, economic, international security and defence organisation. It includes many Eurasian nations like China, Russia, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan etc.

All the economies involved in this important development are commodity based. For example, commodities are 30% of Russian GDP. Their target is to expand gold mining to 3% of GDP and become the biggest gold producer in the world.

Russia has the world’s largest commodity reserves at $75 trillion and produces 11 million barrels of oil per day. Russian friendly provinces produce another 14M totalling 25M. China produces 5m barrels and the Middle East Oil going through the Strait of Hormuz is 22M barrels.  So in a conflict with the US, Russia, China and Iran  could decide to close the Strait of Hormuz which means they would have control over 50% of global oil supply. As Goldman Sachs has stated, oil would then be in the $1000s.

If we take Russia, Iran and Venezuela, they control 40% of the global oil supply.

The point I am making is that these various constellations of commodity countries will be the dominant economic power of the future as the US and Europe decline.

So for Russia, gold and oil are two strategic commodities which will play an important role not just for Russia but for all of these Eastern/Southern countries.

And no one should believe that the US and European sanctions are working. Russia and Iran are selling oil and gas to China at a discount. China then exports this, including refined products, to Europe at premium.

So the sanctions are a farce which totally kills the European economy.

Interestingly, the relationship between yellow gold and black gold has been stable for decades as this chart shows:

GOLD / OIL RATIO 1950 – 2023

GOLD – THE VITAL WEALTH PRESERVATION ASSET FOR 2023 AND BEYOND

Gold was the best performing asset class in 2022 but the investment world didn’t notice since it is hanging on to the declining bubble assets of stocks, bonds and property.

Let’s look at gold’s performance in various currencies in 2022:

The chart shows gold up 15% against Swedish Kroner on the right and for example up 11.6% in pounds, 6% in Euros and virtually unchanged in US$.

Bearing in mind that most asset markets, including bonds, have fallen by 20-30%, this is an outstanding performance by gold.

But no one must believe that gold is going up. All gold does it to reflect the total mismanagement of most economies. The chart above should be turned upside down to reflect the loss of purchasing power of all paper money.

As has been the case since 1971, this trend of falling currencies will continue but not at the same steady pace.

With the debt infested Western economies collapsing, their currencies will implode one after the other.

So please firstly acquire as much physical gold as you can afford and then some more.

And when you own your gold, don’t measure the value in collapsing currencies. Just measure your gold in ounces, kilos or grammes.

Also please don’t keep it in the country where you live, especially if that country has a tendency to grab assets. I don’t need to tell you which countries you can’t trust. The problem is, there are not many you can trust.

BEWARE – A GOLD CUSTODIAN DISAPPEARED WITH CLIENTS’ METALS

Also if you store your gold with a gold custodian, ensure that only you can release it by having the Warehouse Receipt in your name. A custodian gold company disappeared last year with the major customer assets in spite of the gold being stored with a major vault company. The weakness was that the gold company could release the gold without the client’s approval. This is not an acceptable way to store your wealth preservation asset. 

Finally remember that gold is not just your most important wealth preservation asset but can also be beautiful.

TUTANKHAMUN’S DEATH MASK 1327 BC