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Tucker Carlson Unbound: Setting Fire To The Uniparty

Tucker Carlson Unbound: Setting Fire To The Uniparty

Authored by Frank Miele via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

In my last column, I compared Fox News host Tucker Carlson to the CBS journalist Edward R. Murrow, who used his reporting in the 1950s to change the course of history.

For that comparison I apologize.

It is now apparent that Carlson far exceeds Murrow in his courage, his thoughtfulness, and his stubborn refusal to accede to pressure.

Let’s get this straight. Murrow was a brilliant journalist, but his reputation as a dedicated war correspondent during the Battle of Britain also made him a beloved figure to his fellow reporters and to the politicians whom he covered. Thus, when he stood up against the bullying tactics of Sen. Joseph McCarthy, Murrow knew he could count on the support of CBS, other journalists, and even senators who had been the target of McCarthy’s blind rage. In a very real sense, it was McCarthy’s own character flaws that brought him down, to the detriment of his anti-Communist crusade, which had accurately identified the very real threat of Soviet sympathizers who had infiltrated the federal government. Murrow was just the catalyst, and he was lauded for his efforts.

On the other hand, Tucker Carlson’s decision last week to air previously unseen video of the Jan. 6, 2021, confrontation between protesters and Capitol Police put his own career at risk and has made him the subject of bipartisan scorn. Some even speculate that he was silently punished by his bosses at Fox News, but Carlson doesn’t seem worried about being fired, and the condemnation he has received from both the majority leader and minority leader of the Senate has only emboldened him.

It will probably take years to fully understand the importance of Carlson’s challenge of the “official Washington” narrative of Jan. 6 as a “deadly insurrection,” but Carlson wasted no time last Monday in laying out the framework of his complete rejection of the “accepted truth” pushed by the Biden Department of Justice, the House Select Committee on January 6, and the mainstream media.

Only a tiny fraction of the thousands of hours of surveillance video released to Carlson by House Speaker Kevin McCarthy was shown last week on “Tucker Carlson Tonight,” but you only need a small pin to burst a large balloon, and by the time the week was over, all the president’s men couldn’t put the Humpty-Dumpty story of a “Trump-surrection” back together again.

“The images you will see were recorded 26 months ago today on January 6, 2021,” Carlson began. “Until now, politicians have kept this tape hidden from the public. There is no legitimate justification for that and there never has been.”

The powers that be would have you believe that Carlson had jeopardized national security by playing the tapes – probably 30 minutes out of the 41,000 hours. Now, it is true the tapes provided some interesting counterbalance to the non-stop harassment of Trump supporters that has taken place for the past two years, but if truth be told, the evidence on the tapes was much less significant than the reaction to them. What you really want to know now is, if 30 minutes of video has the Uniparty crowd so scared, what else are they hiding?

I think much more than the video, the Censorship-Industrial Complex (as journalist Matt Taibbi has accurately tabbed it) wants to shut down any information or even belief that goes counter to the official narrative, and that’s where Carlson got so deep under their skin that they were willing to rip themselves to shreds in an effort to get at him.

Everything Carlson said about Jan. 6 for three days last week was a threat to their power, and he knew it.

“The protesters were angry. They believed the election they had just voted in was unfairly conducted. They were right. In retrospect, it is clear the 2020 election was a grave betrayal of American democracy.”

He didn’t go beyond that in explaining the illegitimacy of the election, but he didn’t have to. The “it is clear” speaks volumes to those who haven’t bought into the official narrative that the 2020 election was “the most secure” in the nation’s history. Yeah, it was secure if you don’t believe the Supreme Courts of Pennsylvania and Wisconsin that election law was violated en masse in those states. It was secure if you don’t have any concern about billionaire Mark Zuckerberg spending hundreds of millions of dollars to gain access to voter rolls and ensure that likely Biden voters were goosed to get their butts out of the chair and their ballots in the drop boxes. It was secure if you don’t care about Twitter and Facebook colluding with the federal government to make sure that Hunter Biden’s incriminating laptop was falsely painted as Russian disinformation in the weeks leading up to the election.

Although Democrats and the rest of “official Washington” claim the election was secure, they spent zero hours proving that case. Instead, they seized on the disruptions on Jan. 6 as the real threat to democracy and gave their clients in the lapdog media the spectacle of the select committee’s show trial. What is most hurtful to the Democrats and RINOs who wrote the narrative is that their two years of work propping up the infrastructure of a “deadly insurrection” was undone in less than 60 minutes by Carlson, who didn’t deny that violence had been done on Jan. 6, but committed the unforgivable sin of putting it in perspective.

Thus, where the Jan. 6 committee saw the worst attack on our democracy since the Civil War, Tucker Carlson showed pictures of protesters walking in the door of the Capitol and milling around, as he said, like sightseers. No matter how many times Carlson said he was not excusing any violence, the proponents of the “deadly insurrection” narrative claimed that showing non-violent protesters was an affront to their efforts to demonize Trump voters as terrorists. And, of course, they were right to worry.

But it wasn’t just the images by themselves that overturned the official narrative; it was the muscular words of Carlson as he held to account not just the select committee, but also congressional leaders, Capitol Police, and the Department of Justice. This was a rarely seen J’accuse moment in which the system’s irresponsible scapegoating of the Deplorables was held up to the light.

Committee members lied about what they saw,” Carlson said, “and then hid the evidence from the public as well as from Jan. 6 criminal defendants and their lawyers. That is unforgivable.”

The most important video came in four specific batches, each of which puts a dent in the official story. As explained by Carlson, they were as follows:

– Shots of Jacob Chansley (the QAnon Shaman) being escorted through the Capitol by a number of police and never being arrested or prevented from moving about freely. As Carlson points out, the video raises questions about whether the Department of Justice violated Chansley’s rights to a fair trial because he was denied potentially exculpatory evidence. The video plainly raises questions about whether Chansley was an intruder or a guest in the Capitol. Carlson questioned whether similar footage could have assisted many others charged with Jan. 6 crimes by showing that the “deadly insurrection” was nothing of the kind.

– Shots of Capitol Police Officer Brian Sicknick apparently waving protesters out of the building, raising serious questions about the honesty of the many media and political figures who claimed Sicknick’s death was caused by the protesters. In the footage, Sicknick appears to be unharmed and wearing a helmet some time after he was reportedly murdered by having his head bashed in with a fire extinguisher. Sicknick died the next day as a result of a stroke caused by blood clots at the base of his brain. The medical examiner found no external or internal injuries and ruled that Sicknick died of natural causes.

– Shots of Ray Epps, the mysterious figure who urged protesters to “go IN to the Capitol” both the night before and the day of the mob scene. Epps testified before the Jan. 6 committee that he left the riot prior to texting his nephew that he had “orchestrated” the attack, but Carlson found footage of Epps a half hour later still in the middle of the mob, although suspiciously not following his own insistent advice to enter the Capitol. Carlson and others have questioned whether Epps was a federal agent or informant who was provoking the attack as part of a political scheme to create chaos. At the very least, it appears that Epps should be charged with lying to Congress, and if a serious investigation is ever done by anyone other than Tucker Carlson, we should try to find out why the man who said he “orchestrated” the Jan. 6 attack was never charged with any crime.

– Shots of Sen. Josh Hawley exiting the Capitol under the direction of the Capitol Police. In some ways, this footage is the most damning example of the purely partisan political nature of the Jan. 6 committee. Video of Hawley, who had been one of the leaders of the movement to challenge the 2020 election due to irregularities in six or more states, was shown to a national audience for comic effect as it appeared that the senator was being entirely selfish as he fled from the protesters. The effect of watching Hawley running across a Capitol hallway like a shooting gallery rabbit was so humorous that it was put on a loop for the national TV audience to get a good chuckle. Hawley was held up for ridicule by late-night comedians and cable TV “news” hosts. But when Carlson pulled the full video, he discovered that the Capitol Police had ushered dozens of senators and staff out of the building at high speed for their own protection. Hawley, as it turned out, was one of the last to leave, and not the coward he was portrayed to be. Nothing better illustrated the Jan. 6 select committee’s “narrative building” exercise than this attempt to humiliate a U.S. senator who made the mistake of “running” as a Republican.

As Carlson noted at one point, “By controlling the images you were allowed to view from January 6, they controlled how the public understood that day. They could lie about what happened and you would never know the difference. Those lies had a purpose. They created a pretext for a federal crackdown on opponents of the Uniparty in Washington.”

It is that crackdown which has occupied the Biden administration, the FBI, and much of Congress for the last two years. Can the heroic resistance of one TV journalist turn those efforts around and restore a sense of justice to the land of the free? I’ll believe it when I see it, but in the meantime it’s nice to have someone to root for.

Frank Miele, the retired editor of the Daily Inter Lake in Kalispell, Mont., is a columnist for RealClearPolitics. His newest book, “What Matters Most: God, Country, Family and Friends,” is available from his Amazon author page. Visit him at HeartlandDiaryUSA.com or follow him on Facebook @HeartlandDiaryUSA or on Twitter or Gettr @HeartlandDiary.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 03/13/2023 – 16:25

Fed Announces Probe Into Its Own Regulatory Failure At SVB

Fed Announces Probe Into Its Own Regulatory Failure At SVB

The Federal Reserve Board on Monday announced that Vice Chair for Supervision Michael S. Barr is leading a review of the supervision and regulation of Silicon Valley Bank, in light of its failure.

“The events surrounding Silicon Valley Bank demand a thorough, transparent, and swift review by the Federal Reserve,” said Chair Jerome H. Powell.

As a reminder, it was Moody’s that initially brought up issues with SVB.

When SVB reported its fourth quarter results in early 2023, Moody’s Investor Service, a credit rating agency took notice.

In early March, it said that SVB was at high risk for a downgrade due to its significant unrealized losses.

In response, SVB looked to sell $2 billion of its investments at a loss to help boost liquidity for its struggling balance sheet. Soon, more hedge funds and venture investors realized SVB could be on thin ice. Depositors withdrew funds in droves, spurring a liquidity squeeze and prompting California regulators and the FDIC to step in and shut down the bank.

Source

The Fed’s review will be publicly released by May 1.

“We need to have humility, and conduct a careful and thorough review of how we supervised and regulated this firm, and what we should learn from this experience,” said Vice Chair Barr.

In case you wondered where we stand on this…

What are the chances anyone is found responsible in any way?

Tyler Durden
Mon, 03/13/2023 – 16:09

Big Trouble In Little Banks – Bailout Sparks Buying Panic In Bonds, Bitcoin, & Bullion

Big Trouble In Little Banks – Bailout Sparks Buying Panic In Bonds, Bitcoin, & Bullion

The Fed/TSY/FDIC stepped in and saved the world again last night… but nobody told regional banks, whose shares are down dramatically today…

Admittedly off the lows of the day, but all with multiple trading halts today. FRC, WAL, and MYFW are the highest default risk banks in the Russell 3000 Banks Subsector, according to Bloomberg…

Source: Bloomberg

But it’s not just the small banks who are seeing default risk increase, all of the global majors are seeing CDS spreads rise…

Source: Bloomberg

And Credit Suisse CDS has never closed higher (and is now more than double the risk than at the peak of the financial crisis)…

Source: Bloomberg

With the regional bank index continuing to crash-land…

After a year of hiking rates and hawkish FedSpeak, all it took to tighten financial conditions drastically was a open-ended facility to bail out the financial system. Bloomberg’s financial conditions index tightened massively overnight…

Source: Bloomberg

And the market has completely blown up any hopes that The Fed had for a hawkish path from here with the terminal rate plunging and significant rate-cuts being priced in. For context, the market expected over 110bps of rate-hikes by September on Wednesday, it now believes that by September, rates will be over 40bps lower

Source: Bloomberg

For context, today was the biggest gain in the 3rd ED contact (which is currently the Sept 2023 contract) since 1987…

Source: Bloomberg

The shift in the market’s expectation for the Fed’s rate trajectory is simply stunning…

Source: Bloomberg

Stocks rallied after the bailout, but we note that the US Majors were unable to get back to pre-SVB-Fail levels. Small Caps (heavy with financials) have been clubbed like a baby seal…

Notably, 0DTE players faded the initial rebound in stocks…

HIRO Indicator | SpotGamma™

And obviously, financials were the biggest losers. On the flip-side, only defensives were bid (Healthcare and Utes)…

Source: Bloomberg

Credit markets blew out today (on a spread basis), exceeding (relatively) the shift in equity risk…

Source: Bloomberg

Bonds were aggressively bid across the curve with the short-end a massive outperformer over the last three days.

Source: Bloomberg

On the day, the 30Y yields ended unchanged with 2Y down over 50bps..

Source: Bloomberg

The 2Y yield is down almost 100bps in the last three days, dropping back below 4.00% – its lowest since Sept 2022…

Source: Bloomberg

…the biggest yield drop since ‘Black Monday’ in 1987…

Source: Bloomberg

The yield curve steepened dramatically with 2s30s up over 50bps today to their least inverted since mid-Nov…

Source: Bloomberg

The market’s inflation expectations (1Y CPI Swaps) plunged…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar dumped down to three-week lows…

Source: Bloomberg

As alternative-currencies were sought as safe-havens, sending bitcoin soaring higher (above $24,000)…

Source: Bloomberg

And gold spiked above $1900…

Oil prices puked overnight, with WTI down to a $72 handle before bouncing back, but late on, it started to slide again, ending down over 3%…

Finally, systemic risk indicators are starting to flash red with FRA-OIS spiking (signaling stress in the banking system)…

Source: Bloomberg

And global dollar liquidity is drying up fast…

Source: Bloomberg

But Biden said “the banking system was safe”

If The Fed’s backstop is so good, and the banking system is so resilient, why are these systemic signals worsening?

Tyler Durden
Mon, 03/13/2023 – 16:02

Red Cross Giving Migrants “Maps And Guides” To Aid In Illegal Border Crossings

Red Cross Giving Migrants “Maps And Guides” To Aid In Illegal Border Crossings

The American Red Cross has been providing maps and guides to help migrants to illegally cross into the United States from Mexico, according to documents obtained by the Daily Caller.

The map, which bears American and international Red Cross logos, shows where migrants can find various resources, including hotels, medical care and shelters along their route through Central America and Mexico. The guide also provides tips on surviving in the desert, dealing with disease, how to safely jump on trains and how to obtain contraceptives.

Photo by Jennie Taer/Daily Caller News Foundation

As the Caller notes, the American Red Cross sits on the board of the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s (FEMA) Food and Shelter Program, and is responsible for allocating funds to NGO groups which support illegal migrants.

The FEMA program received $350 million from the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) in February; the American Red Cross is tasked, along with other NGOs, with allocating some of those funds to support migrants after they’ve crossed the southern border and are processed with a court date.

The organization is not only facilitating help for illegal migrants in the U.S., but appears to be helping migrants make their journeys far south of the border. U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) has recorded a record surge in illegal migration at the southern border, where federal authorities encountered more than 2.3 million migrants in fiscal year 2022 and more than 870,000 between October and January. -Daily Caller

“If you use contraceptives methods, don’t forget to bring them with you. In necessary cases, some Red Cross’ clinics and medical brigades will give them to you for free,” reads the self care document.

Photo by Jennie Taer/Daily Caller News Foundation

Also included are tips for jumping on top of cargo trains, such as “La Bestia,” or “the beast,” which takes them north through Mexico.

“Traveling seated (on trains) is the most recommended. Be careful on your trip, there are branches, electric cables, tunnels that can hit you. Accommodate yourself where you have supporting points,” reads the guide.

Photo by Jennie Taer/Daily Caller News Foundation

“In the desert during the day, temperatures are extreme. Seek to bring with you lots of potable water, pants and long sleeves to protect you from the sun and maintain the sweat humidity. Also take with you warm clothes, gloves to protect your hands and a flashlight and matches,” the pamphlet continues.

When reached for comment, the International Committee of the Red Cross called the effort “strictly humanitarian.”

“We provide information about ways to reduce risk and where to find lifesaving assistance in Mexico and Central America. It is essential to prevent the loss of lives and to promote a humanitarian approach. Addressing the needs of this vulnerable population is a shared responsibility, of the authorities in the countries of origin, transit and destination, and of the international community.”

Tyler Durden
Mon, 03/13/2023 – 15:42

US Intel Agencies Need To Focus Intensely On ‘Diversity, Equity, Inclusion,’ Intelligence Chief Says

US Intel Agencies Need To Focus Intensely On ‘Diversity, Equity, Inclusion,’ Intelligence Chief Says

Authored by Joseph Lord via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

During a hearing of the House Intelligence Committee last week, Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines expressed the need for intel agencies to focus more intensely on “diversity, equity, and inclusion.”

Avril Haines, head of the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI), testifies during a Senate Select Committee on Intelligence hearing about worldwide threats, on Capitol Hill in Washington on April 14, 2021. (Graeme Jennings/Pool/AFP via Getty Images)

The hearing was called by Intelligence Chairman Mike Turner (R-Ohio) to discuss global threats.

Haines took the opportunity to make comments about the need for the intelligence community (IC) to hire more minorities on the basis of their race.

Rep. André Carson (D-Ind.) addressed the issue of “workforce development” in questioning to Haines.

Citing earlier comments from David Petraeus, former head of the Central Intelligence Agency, Carson contended that minorities were underrepresented in the IC.

“What are your organizations doing to improve diversity when it comes to recruiting and retaining your workforces?” Carson asked Haines and the other panelists. “Does the IC need to devote more resources to professional development? How do you all plan on tackling those very apparent issues?”

“I think there is no question that we have to do better on diversity, equity, inclusion, and accessibility,” Haines replied promptly.

Haines pointed to recent budget requests in which her organization had requested more funding to carry out “more intense efforts” to increase the presence of minorities in the IC.

“I think you’ll see in our budget requests and our proposals in all of the work that we’re doing that … we see this as an area that we need to focus more intense resources and efforts,” Haines said.

She specifically noted the lack of Hispanic and Latinos among the leadership of the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI).

Read more here…

Tyler Durden
Mon, 03/13/2023 – 15:20

Israeli Official Blames American “Weakness” For China’s Iran-Saudi Deal

Israeli Official Blames American “Weakness” For China’s Iran-Saudi Deal

Israeli officials are expressing dismay at the Iran and Saudi Arabia peace deal which was announced from Beijing last Friday, with an aide to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu telling reporters that it’s the result of American “weakness” as well as failings of the prior Israeli government.

“There was a feeling of US and Israeli weakness and this is why the Saudis started looking for new avenues. It was clear that this was going to happen,” the unnamed senior official said while traveling in Netanyahu’s entourage in Rome, according to Axios.

File image: AFP

Axios reported further, “The senior Israeli official who briefed reporters said the Israeli government is not concerned that the new Saudi-Iranian agreement will hamper the efforts to achieve a breakthrough that could lead to the normalization of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia.”

But the former Israeli leaders hurled the same accusation at Netanyahu, saying the new coalition government is to blame. Former Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid and current opposition head in the Knesset, also lamented that the Saudi-Iran deal signals the “collapse of the regional defense wall that we started building against Iran.”

“This is what happens when one deals with legal insanity all day instead of doing one’s job against Iran and strengthening relations with the United States,” Lapid said, commenting on the Netanyahu government’s judicial overhaul, and the chaos it has sparked in Israeli politics along with massive street protests.

Israel’s number one priority has long been to isolate Tehran as a regional power, especially because of Iranian entrenchment in Syria as well as its longtime support to Lebanese Hezbollah. Closer Israeli relations with Riyadh were toward that end, but now the China-brokered deal puts all of this into question.

The normalization deal is also being widely viewed as a humiliation for America’s waning influence and presence in the Middle East. After trillions spent and many thousands of US soldiers’ lives lost in Afghanistan and Iraq following two-decade long occupations, China swoops in and plays peacemaker, growing its influence in the wake of Washington’s mess. Now US allies in the region, foremost among them Israel, find themselves in a weakened position and on the defensive. 

Tyler Durden
Mon, 03/13/2023 – 12:25

Making Common, Golden Sense Of The Next Senseless Bank Crisis

Making Common, Golden Sense Of The Next Senseless Bank Crisis

Authored by Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com,

The latest headlines, of course, are all pointing toward the ripple effect of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), and they should be.

This banking metaphor for the tech sector in particular and the previously described disaster in California as a whole or the matter of banking risk as a theme, require understanding and attention, provided below.

Once we get past a forensic look at the data and forces which explain SVB’s demise, we quickly discover that SVB is itself just a symbol of a much larger financial (and banking) crisis which ties together nearly all of the major macro forces we’ve been tracking since Powell began his QE to QT quest to be Volcker-reborn.

That is, we confirm that everything comes back to the Fed and bond market in general and the UST market in particular. But as I’ve argued for years, and will say again now: The bond market is the thing.

By the end of this brief report, we also discover that SVB is just the beginning; contagion inside and outside of the banking sector is about to get worse. Or stated more bluntly: “We ain’t seen nothing yet.”

But first, let’s look at the banks in Silicon Valley…

Two Failed Banks

The tech-friendly SVB story (i.e. FDIC shutdown) is actually preceded by another failed bank, namely the crypto-friendly Silvergate Capital. Corp, now heading into voluntary liquidation.

Because SVB was a much larger bank (>$170B in deposits) than Silvergate (>$6B in deposits), it got and deserved more headlines as the largest bank failure since well, the 2008 bank failures…

Unlike Lehman or Bear Stearns, the recent disasters at SVB and Silvergate were not the result of concentrated and levered bets/loans negligently packaged as investment-grade credits, but rather the result of a good ol’ fashioned bank run. Bank runs happen when depositors all want to get their money out of the banks at the same time—a scenario of which I’ve warned for years and compared to a burning theater with an exit door the size of a mouse-hole.

Banks, of course, use and lever depositor funds to lend and invest at risk (which is why Henry Ford warned of revolution if folks actually understood what banks actually do). Thus, if a mass of depositors suddenly wants their money at the same time, it’s just not gonna be there.

So, why were depositors in a panic to exit?

It boils down to crypto fears, tech stress and bad banking practices.

No Silver Lining at Silvergate

At Silvergate, they provided loans to crypto enterprises, which were the belle of the speculation ball until Sam Bankman-Fried’s FTX implosion made investors weary of crypto exchanges. Nervous depositors withdrew billions of their crypto-linked deposits at the same time.

Silvergate, of course, didn’t have the billions needed to meet depositor requests, because, well… banks by their operational (fractional reserve) nature never have the money when needed at the same time.

Thus, the bank had to quickly and desperately sell assets, which meant selling billions worth of non-mature Treasuries whose prices had tanked in the interim thanks to the Powell rate hikes.

(See how the Fed lurks, head down and silent, as the source behind nearly every crisis?)

This was selling bank assets at the worst time imaginable and immediately sent Silvergate into the red and toward the cold dark ocean floor.

Once DOJ investigations end and the FDIC insurance runs out, we’ll discover just how “whole” the bigger depositors at Silvergate will be—but this will take time and end in some degree of pain for many of them.

Death Valley for Silicon Valley Bank

As for the bigger disaster at SVB, they mostly serviced start-ups and technology firms with a major focus on life sciences start-ups—i.e., yesterday’s unicorns and tomorrow’s donkeys.

These unicorns, of course, were not only under the cloud of the FTX fears in particular and falling faith in tech miracles in general, but equally under the pressure of Powell’s rate hikes, which made funding (or debt-rollovers) harder and more expensive to obtain for tech names.

In short, the keg party of easy money for questionable tech enterprises was beginning to unwind.

SVB’s slow and then rapid demise came as depositors (at the advice of their VC advisors) withdrew billions at the same time, which SVB (like Silvergate) could not match after selling UST assets at a massive loss to save the first withdrawals while burning the later movers.

In short, and like all Ponzi schemes, banks suffering a bank run can’t and won’t make everyone whole—just the first money out—i.e., the fastest runners in the burning theater.

Burn Victims, Recovery?

Banks, ironically, can’t technically go bank-rupt. Silvergate plans to eventually make all depositors whole as they sift through their assets in liquidation. Hmmm. Good luck with that.

SVB, however, waited too long for voluntary liquidation procedures and was instead taken over by the FDIC as a receiver to manage the sale of assets to return investor deposits as a dividend over time.

Furthermore, the FDIC “insures” investor deposits up to $250K, but that won’t help the vast majority of SVB deposits (95.5%) not covered by this so-called insurance.

The Contagion Effect?

Notwithstanding the pain felt by depositors at Silvergate and SVB, the fear there has spread to the broader banking sector (big bank to regional), which saw expected sell-offs at the end of last week and has prompted the inevitable question, namely: Is this another Lehman moment?

For now, we are talking about bank runs rather than banks failing ala 2008 due to massive derivative exposures and bad loans. In short, this is not (yet at least) a 2008-like banking crisis.

That said, and as we’ve reported countless times, post-2008 banks are still massively over-levered and over-exposed to that toxic waste dump otherwise known as the COMEX and derivatives market.

Each day, the headlines change.

Signature Bank, this time in New York, was just shuttered by New York regulators.

The Fed then announced over the weekend that they will make depositors whole, which is tantamount to confessing yet another Fed bailout of bad banks under the new name of the $25B “Bank Term Funding Program”—or BTFP, an acronym which spurs reminders of the 2009 TARP days…

Such a bailout policy makes the odds of further Fed rate hikes in 2023 a bit less likely, and already the traders on Wall Street are renaming BTFP as “Buy The F***ing Pivot.”

As I’ve written for months (and show below), Powell’s QT plan would last until something inevitably broke, and it would seem that day has come, as expected.

Many are suggesting that the BTFB will need to be funded to at least $2T, not $25B, to backstop further banking risk.

Easy Prognosis

Based on context and current data, however, we can begin to make certain objective and early conclusions.

  1. Cash flow from VC into tech is about to get a lot tighter, as we’ve been warning for the last 2 years.

  2. SVB depositors may eventually get some or much of their money back over time once the bank’s assets (Treasuries, loans etc.) are sold off by the FDIC. Despite my very, very low opinion of bank regulators, at least SVB, unlike FTX, was regulated.

  3. As to a full-on crisis across all banks, it’s a bit early to say that the foregoing regional cancers will spread across all banks of all flavors, though our blunt reports on banking risk in the past suggest that banks as a whole are anything but safe.

  4. Cryptos, already under the cloud of FTX and now SVB, saw more pain, as the sell-offs in this space last week confirm. However, as banking fears prompt a more dovish Fed in Q2, many cryptos could rise.

The Bigger, Scarry Picture

In the still evolving nature of the current banking crisis, we see reasons to be concerned, very concerned, about systemic risk in the banking sector.

Banks, and banking practices, are complex little beasts. Just across town at that gasping entity known as Credit Suisse, for example, they have been too afraid to publicly report their cash-flow statements as the bank’s stock fell yet another 60%. So, yeah, things are complex…

But returning to the US in particular and banks in general, one can still derive the simple from the complex, which is simply scarry.

Keep It Simple

At the most basic level, banks fail when the cost of funding their operations rises dramatically above the returns or yields on their performing/earning assets.

It is our view that such a set-up for further pain across the banking sector is real, a set-up made all the worse by—you guessed it—that entirely un-natural destroyer of natural markets forces, free price-discovery and honest capitalism otherwise known as the U.S. Federal Reserve.

Central Bankers and Broken Bonds

As I’ve written and spoken, everything is connected, and everything eventually takes it signals from the bond market, which was long ago hijacked by the Fed.

Powell’s rate hikes, for example, don’t just occur in a vacuum to fight his bogus war on an inflation nightmare which he once promised was only “transitory.”

Fed QT and QE, for example, are more than just words, experiments or theories, they are un-natural, artificial and powerful toxins which can’t be contained to just making central bank balance sheets thinner or fatter and bogus CPI data higher or lower.

Instead, the Fed’s little tweaks, tricks and madness impact just about everything, and always end up screwing everything up.

Why? Because markets were designed to be managed by natural forces of supply and demand not artificial forces of fake money from central bankers.

By raising the Fed Funds Rates toward 5% and above at rapid pace, for example, Powell has done more than just make a tiny $300B dent in the Fed’s nearly $9T balance sheet. He has engineered a dis-inflationary recession and sent combined nominal returns in stocks AND bonds to levels not seen since 1871.

But when it comes to banking risk, Powell has also gut-punched that sector with criminal negligence.

How so?

Even the Banks Can’t Fight the Fed?

When the Fed began raising rates, it sent bonds to the floor and hence yields to the moon (yields and bond price are inversely related).

This impacts bank balance sheets because banks make a living by paying depositors at rate X while earning X+; but now those banks are in a deadly corner of the Fed’s own mis-design.

That is, the Fed has sent bond yields higher than the rates/yields which commercial banks offer depositors, which is why many depositors are questioning the advantage of being, well…depositors.

This mis-match, of course, will likely require banks to raise depositor rates to compete with rising UST yields, a costly tactic which cuts their profits and reddens their balance sheets.

Alternatively, banks could offer/issue more bank shares to increase their capital, but this dilutes existing share counts and value, which is how bankers are paid.

To add insult to injury, banks (and bankers) are also facing the real risk of rising or at least persistent inflation, which means that the real return on even “enhanced” depositor rates is ultimately a negative return when adjusted for the invisible tax of inflation.

All Conversations Return to Gold

So, no, we hardly think the commercial banking system, the massive and compounding risks of which we have reported for years, is anything remotely healthy, safe or credible.

All frowns and inevitable (yet increasingly empty) gold-bug critiques notwithstanding, we think holding a physical bar of segregated, allocated and non-levered gold in one’s own name in the world’s safest private vaults and jurisdictions makes a lot more sense than trusting your increasingly worthless paper or digital money to the world’s increasingly fractured banks, be they SVB, Credit Suisse or JP Morgan.

Just saying…

Tyler Durden
Mon, 03/13/2023 – 12:09

Blankfein Says “Govt Actions Removed Reasons For Bank Run” As Ackman Pleads “Regional Banks Are Incredible Bargain”

Blankfein Says “Govt Actions Removed Reasons For Bank Run” As Ackman Pleads “Regional Banks Are Incredible Bargain”

The banking system is safe”Joe Biden

Government actions removed reasons for a bank run…” –Lloyd Blankfein

Regional bank stocks are an incredible bargain now as long as the gov’t does the right thing…” –Bill Ackman

This situation is not 2008…” -Anonymous Treasury Official

Over the weekend, billionaire hedge fund manager Bill Ackman observed in one of his lengthy, self-serving twitter threads that unless serious confidence is restored to the banking sector, “immediately”… “the giant sucking sound you will hear will be the withdrawal of substantially all uninsured deposits from all but the ‘systemically important banks’ (SIBs),” which will in turn “drain liquidity from community, regional and other banks and begin the destruction of these important institutions.”

While not incorrect (small banks as the next “credit event” is precisely what we warned about last week), some wondered why the sudden concern – after all Ackman is best known for his investing prowess (and occasionally crying on CNBC to make sure the Fed aligns with his trades), and not so much his humanitarian bent.

Today, to nobody’s surprise we learned that Ackman’s relentless fire and brimstone from the weekend had a far more prosaic basis: he was long.

As we noted earlier, amid the chaos following this weekend’s bank bailout – which as we warned was not nearly enough and would lead to even more selling of small and regional banks…

… Ackman fired off yet another desperate tweet which boiled down to – ‘we’re fucked, and unless the FDIC does more, right now, we’re uberfucked…’ to wit: “The @FDICgov needs to explicitly guarantee all deposits now. Hours matter.

What he meant is that margin calls are coming at 2:30pm and yes, “hours matter.”

In any case, Bill is sure that will happen – therefore “Regional bank stocks are an incredible bargain now as long as the gov’t does the right thing, and I am confident it will.” The “right thing” in this case being even more bailouts, which may or may not happen, but at least anyone who trades based on Ackman’s tweets will have a bunch of bank stocks to buy from, well, Bill.

Bill wasn’t alone: former Goldman CEO Lloyd Blankfein was also high on hopium, tweeting on Monday: “A few banks may have issues like SVB, but only a few,” adding that “govt actions removed reasons for bank runs.”

Again, that may be the case for JPMorgan (and Goldman, if the bank hadn’t totally botched its attempted entry into consumer banking), but small banks may beg to differ today. Lloyd also said that while anxiety and volatility are high, “sharply lower interest rates, fed likely on hold, are strong positives for markets.”

Translation: make the rate hikes stop now, or else the Democrat-donor money train gets it.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 03/13/2023 – 11:50

Biden Gives Go-Ahead To Giant Alaska Oil Project, ‘Green’s Furious

Biden Gives Go-Ahead To Giant Alaska Oil Project, ‘Green’s Furious

Well this is a little awkward…

President Biden pledged during the election campaign: “I guarantee you we’re going to end fossil fuels.”

The same President Biden today has – much to the angst of conservationists – authorized a giant ConocoPhillips oil project in northwest Alaska.

The $8 billion Willow oil field development project was initially proposed in 2018. It is set within the 23 million-acre National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska (NPRA), the largest expanse of federal public lands in the country, located on Alaska’s North Slope.

ConocoPhillips had initially proposed five pads as part of the project. In the oil industry, a pad refers to a temporary drilling site. Under the Trump administration, the Department of the Interior (DOI) had approved the proposal in October 2020.

But a lawsuit by multiple groups, including Earthjustice, forced the U.S. Bureau of Land Management (BLM) to recommend scaling down the number of pads from five to three.

Biden’s Willow plan would allow three drill sites initially, the sources said, which project developer ConocoPhillips has said would include about 219 total wells.

A fourth drill site proposed for the project  would be denied. The company has said it considers the three-site option workable.

The authorization represents one of the most significant climate decisions yet for Biden

ConcoPhillips welcomed the decision, issuing a statement that it expects to immediately initiate gravel road construction activities

“This was the right decision for Alaska and our nation,” said Ryan Lance, ConocoPhillips chairman and chief executive officer.

“Willow fits within the Biden Administration’s priorities on environmental and social justice, facilitating the energy transition and enhancing our energy security, all while creating good union jobs and providing benefits to Alaska Native communities.”

As we detailed previously, environmental activists have vehemently opposed the project, citing pollution concerns. A petition at Change.org asking the Biden administration to not allow the Willow project has garnered more than three million signatures.

“If this project were to be approved, Willow would emit more climate pollution annually than more than 99.7 percent of all single-point sources in the country. The first oil to be used from this project wouldn’t be for years,” the petition insists.

Christy Goldfuss, a former Obama White House official who now is a policy chief at the Natural Resources Defense Council, said she was “deeply disappointed” at Biden’s decision to approve Willow, which NRDC estimates would generate planet-warming greenhouse gas emissions equivalent to more than 1 million homes.

“This decision is bad for the climate, bad for the environment and bad for the Native Alaska communities who oppose this and feel their voices were not heard,” Goldfuss said.

However, lawmakers and trade unions from Alaska are pushing for the Biden administration to approve the project that is expected to hire 2,500 construction workers in the state. Willow is projected to output 180,000 barrels of oil per day, or around 1.5 percent of total American oil production.

Over its 30-year lifespan, Willow is expected to produce over 600 million barrels of oil while contributing up to $17 billion in revenues for state and federal governments as well as local communities.

However, in a clear appeasement of his ‘green’ base,  even as Willow gets a green light, the Biden administration is moving to limit future oil development across the 23 million-acre (93,000 square-kilometer) NPR-A, which was set aside for energy supply needs roughly a century ago. The Interior Department said it soon will propose a rule that could prevent future oil and gas leasing across more than 13 million acres of the Indiana-sized reserve.

As Bloomberg reports, environmentalists hailed the protections but said they did nothing to offset the climate damage from approving the Willow project.

“Protecting one area of the Arctic so you can destroy another doesn’t make sense, and it won’t help the people and wildlife who will be upended by the Willow project,” said Kristen Monsell, a senior attorney at the Center for Biological Diversity.

“We need to protect the entire Arctic and stop building massive oil and gas developments that will contribute to greenhouse gas emissions for years to come.”

Oil industry advocates argued the Biden administration moves conflicted with a push for domestic energy security.

The Biden administration is forestalling “responsible development of federal lands and waters,” and sending “mixed signals on energy policy,” said Frank Macchiarola, senior vice president of policy for the American Petroleum Institute.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 03/13/2023 – 11:30

McCarthy Says He Will “Slowly Roll Out” Jan. 6 Footage To News Outlets

McCarthy Says He Will “Slowly Roll Out” Jan. 6 Footage To News Outlets

Authored by Frank Fang via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) said he will “slowly roll out” the security footage recorded during the Jan. 6 Capitol breach to news outlets.

We will slowly roll out to every individual news agency, they can come see the tapes as well,” McCarthy told Fox News’ “Sunday Morning Futures.”

Let everyone see them to bring their own judgment,” he added. “The first thing I found is that the January 6 committee was not honest with us. That it’s not 14,000 hours of tapes, there’s 41,000 hours of tapes.

McCarthy has provided Fox News host Tucker Carlson exclusive access to 41,000 hours of surveillance footage from Jan. 6. The host then aired some of the clips on March 6.

“Taken as a whole, the video record does not support the claim that January 6 was an insurrection,” Carlson said during his program. “In fact, it demolishes that claim.”

Footage shown by Carlson raised questions about “QAnon Shaman” Jacob Chansley’s time in the Capitol and U.S. Capitol Police officer Brian Sicknick’s death.

McCarthy’s decision to share the footage with Carlson has been criticized by Democrats, including President Joe Biden and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.).

When asked if he had any regret over sharing the footage with Carlson, McCarthy stood by his decision.

“I didn’t give the tapes. I allowed him to come see them, just like an exclusive with anybody else,” McCarthy said. “My goal here is transparency.”

The top House Republican added that it was important to have “equal justice,” pointing to protests after the death of George Floyd in 2020.

The one thing I understand in America, we should have equal justice,” he said. “What really raises the point with me is, why did I watch federal courts, why did I watch cities burn, federal agencies or something, and nobody arrested there? I think we should have equal justice across this country.

“And it’s really concerning to me, since we’ve taken the majority, the things I have learned that government has done, that withheld information from the American people. That will not happen on our watch, regardless of what information says or doesn’t say,” he added.

I think transparency is best and allow the American public to see it all. And we need to have equal justice across this nation,” he concluded.

Last week, in an interview with Breitbart News, McCarthy said that the security footage of Jan. 6  must go through a security review before a full public release.

“We just want to make sure we go through them all, and it takes time,” he said.

Police begin lobbing munitions into the huge crown on the west front of the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021. (Joseph Prezioso / AFP via Getty Images)

Security Footage

Separately on Sunday, Rep. Michael McCaul (R-Texas), chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, told CBS’ “Face the Nation” that McCarthy had assured him that the Jan. 6 footage would be made available to all media.

“He has given me assurance, he’s going to turn it over to the entire media, I think. I believe in the fourth estate freedom of press, and I think the American people deserve to see all the footage from that day,” McCaul said.

The Texas lawmaker warned that the footage is not going to show “tourism at the Capitol.”

“It’s going to show a very dark, tragic day that I witnessed firsthand, that included our Capitol Police being assaulted, 140 of them injured, two pipe bombs,” McCaul said. “One Capitol Police officer killed, and a protester killed. That’s not—that’s not a good day.”

He added that what happened on Jan. 6 could have been prevented.

I think it should have been prevented had we had good intelligence that day beforehand,” he said.

Also on Sunday, Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.), who sits on the Armed Services Committee, told NBC’s “Meet the Press” that McCarthy shouldn’t have released the footage to Carlson alone.

“What I do regret probably as much as anything about the release of the 41,000 hours is it was released to one person in primetime who is, you know, rather sensational in his approach and rather than just releasing it to everybody,” Cramer said.

He added: “I think transparency absolutely is the best way to go. I think Kevin McCarthy’s right to do it. I just wish he would’ve released it to everybody at the same time.”

Cramer said he was frustrated that much attention is still being paid to what happened on Jan. 6.

“We should be talking about the southern border,” Cramer said. “We should be talking about China and the challenge it possesses, and talking about inflation and a budget that drives up deficits forever.

“Those are winning arguments for Republicans, not relitigating Jan. 6.”

Tyler Durden
Mon, 03/13/2023 – 11:15