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Vegas Hotels Hit With Lawsuit, Claiming Collusion Via Algorithm To Artificially Inflate Hotel Prices

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Vegas Hotels Hit With Lawsuit, Claiming Collusion Via Algorithm To Artificially Inflate Hotel Prices

A lawsuit filed in federal court in Nevada alleges hotel operators on the Las Vegas Strip colluded to overcharge visitors for rooms through an algorithm designed to artificially inflate prices above competitive levels, Las Vegas Review-Journal reported.

Caesars Entertainment, Treasure Island, Wynn Resorts Holdings, and MGM Resorts International were named in the suit for allegedly sharing a price algorithm to set hotel rates instead of making “independent pricing and supply decisions,” according to the lawsuit, filed Wednesday.

The operator of the algorithm, Rainmaker Group Unlimited, a revenue management firm owned by Cendyn Group, was also named as a defendant for allowing “algorithmic-driven price-fixing … at the expense of consumers and in violation of antitrust laws.” 

Two people, one from Washington state and another in Florida, filed the lawsuit. Both stayed in the defendants’ hotel rooms and claimed the shared pricing data allowed hotel operators to “defy supply and demand dynamics.” 

“Our antitrust attorneys have uncovered what appears to be an unlawful agreement in which Rainmaker collects and shares data between Vegas hotel competitors to unlawfully raise prices of hotel rooms,” plaintiffs’ attorney with Seattle-based law firm Hagens Berman wrote in a statement. 

“What happens in Vegas will no longer stay in Vegas. We intend to expose the under-the-table deals perpetrated by these Vegas hotels, and we intend to hold them accountable,” the attorney continued. 

The plaintiffs’ lawsuit quoted confidential witnesses, a Rainmaker executive and two former employees, who estimated 90% of Vegas hotels use Rainmaker’s algorithm. 

Rainmaker “collects confidential price information from each of the hotel operators, and then tells them, through use of various algorithms, how to price,” the lawsuit alleged.

“The suit is the latest in a growing wave of antitrust cases to take aim at algorithmic models or data brokering services allegedly used to facilitate price coordination across an entire industry. The allegations echo dozens of recently filed suits hitting the country’s top residential landlords with similar claims,” Bloomberg said. 

Tyler Durden
Fri, 01/27/2023 – 20:05

Soaring Food Prices Prompt Eurasian Nations To Ban Food Exports

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Soaring Food Prices Prompt Eurasian Nations To Ban Food Exports

Authored by Eurasianet via OilPrice.com,

The harshest winter since 2008 is contributing to shortages of staple vegetables across Central Asia and sending prices north in a region still suffering from COVID-induced food inflation. 

In Uzbekistan, record frosts have highlighted the shortcomings of the national energy system as even residents of the capital spent days on end without power. But the cold has also hammered the agriculture sector in the region’s most populous country.

On January 20, the Uzbek agriculture minister announced a four-month ban on exports of onions after prices doubled in three weeks.

The title of the ministry’s press release – “there are reserves of onions in Uzbekistan” – hints at panic. 

Once among the cheapest onions produced by former Soviet countries, Uzbek onions are now as expensive as onions from countries like Georgia and Moldova, the ministry said, reaching 6,000-8,000 sum (53-71 cents) per kilo.

While the frosts have ruined part of the onion stock in storage, that is not the only source of pressure on prices. Vast energy deficits have strained logistics, with gas stations shut down and roads covered in ice, the ministry said.

In comments to private news website Gazeta.uz, one resident of Bukhara region gave an account of this perfect storm: “Due to the closure of gas stations, there are problems with public transport. On Tuesday we went to the market and did not see a single bus. The only thing left is taxis. Food prices have gone up. They say that goods are not being brought from Tashkent. There are no sellers at the Kholkhozni bazaar because vegetables and fruits have frozen.” 

Potatoes have also jumped in price since the start of the year – by 14 percent, reported specialist agriculture news site East Fruit last week.

Price shifts elsewhere in Central Asia have been less severe, but experts say the true impact of the deep freeze will become apparent in the coming weeks and months. 

A consultant for the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization in Tajikistan, Bakhtiyor Abduvokhidov, told East Fruit that carrots could become scarce soon, noting that Tajik farmers tended to store harvested carrots in the ground due to a lack of warmer storage space. 

“It is still impossible to say how they [the carrots] endured the frosts – we need to wait for the soil to thaw and the first batches to be dug out to assess the damage,” Abduvokhidov said. “However, since the temperature in the regions where carrots remained in the ground for several days in a row dropped to -15 Celsius at night, it can be assumed that they are damaged.” 

Kazakhstan last week followed Uzbekistan’s lead in banning exports of root vegetables.

The Ministry of Trade and Integration on January 22 said that prices for Kazakh onions had risen more than 5 percent in the space of a week.

Minister Serik Zhumangarin told journalists two days later that there are around 150,000 tons of onions in the country – enough for around five months, but less than authorities had previously thought. The reason for onions disappearing, Zhumangarin argued, was surging demand in Uzbekistan and Russia, as well as Pakistan, a major producer that suffered floods last summer and now has a deficit of the vegetable. (In the months before the cold snap, East Fruit reported that Uzbekistan was ramping up onion exports to the South Asian nation.)

Zhumangarin said his ministry is working with officials at the border to prevent smuggling.  

Kazakhstan posted Central Asia’s highest figure for food inflation last year, at over 25 percent, partly powered by fallout from Russia’s war in Ukraine.  

After deadly unrest last January, authorities are especially anxious about this trend. In one measure to avert price spikes, the trade ministry said it had ordered Kazakhstan’s regions to buy from producers in the agriculture-rich southern Turkestan region. 

But there, too, the frosts have wreaked havoc, with Turkestan’s greenhouses – more than two thirds of Kazakhstan’s total – witnessing large scale harvest failures. 

Turkestan farmers interviewed by local outlet Otyrar.kz blamed poor-quality coal for the season’s losses, saying the fuel had failed to warm heating pipes inside the structures. One tomato grower told Otyrar that his operation had planned to harvest over 1,200 tons but managed just 250 tons, with the rest of the produce going to waste. 

Another initiative that the trade ministry believes will stabilize the local onion market is an agreement to purchase 6,000 tons from Tajikistan. 

Authorities in Tajikistan’s Khatlon’s region say they have reached export agreements with Kazakhstan’s ambassador and a delegation of Kazakh businessmen and sounded positive notes on the potential for ramping up agricultural exports to Kazakhstan.

Dushanbe seems ambivalent to the effect that this might have on domestic prices. 

According to a report by independent news outlet Asia-Plus, Tajik onion prices have tripled year-on-year to reach around 73 cents per kilogram, measured against the official exchange rate. An agriculture expert quoted by the website said that the most recent onion harvest in Tajikistan had been successful, with only “minor losses.”  

Tyler Durden
Fri, 01/27/2023 – 19:45

Dear Tech Execs, ChatGPT Won’t “Compose Memo Announcing Massive Layoffs”

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Dear Tech Execs, ChatGPT Won’t “Compose Memo Announcing Massive Layoffs”

Tech layoff announcements continue to rise by the week. The latest notable firms to slash headcount to survive tightening monetary conditions and increasing risk of recession include Google, Microsoft, Salesforce, and Amazon. After every announcement, either leaked onto Twitter or published on the company’s website is a copy of the layoff memo from the CEO to staff. 

Over the last several quarters, we’ve read dozens of layoff memos from tech CEOs. We notice CEOs are usually blunt and to the point about firings in the first paragraph or draw out the inevitable to the very end. 

So far, 219 tech companies have fired 68,149 workers, according to the latest data from the layoff tracker website Layoffs.fyi. Last year, 1,040 tech companies fired 160,000 employees. 

With every firing comes a memo to staff. And we wonder just how many corporate execs tried to use OpenAI’s text generator ChatGPT to compose a layoff letter — after all, the AI-powered tool can write college essays, pass exams, and even apply for jobs. So how easy could writing a one-pager about firing employees be?

We tested this and asked ChatGPT to “compose a memo announcing massive layoffs.” 

And it didn’t deliver:

“I’m sorry, I am not able to compose a memo announcing massive layoffs as it would not be appropriate and could be considered insensitive. Instead, I suggest seeking guidance from a human resources professional or management team to ensure that any communication regarding layoffs is handled in a sensitive and professional manner.” 

Here’s a screenshot of the response. 

We couldn’t help think of how this worked out before…

It appears ChatGPT’s AI trainers might have censored such a response. The question is why, well, perhaps it’s to protect the view of AI development. If fired employees found out their CEO sent a layoff notice written by AI, that would be negative press for the company and the technology. 

This means all those tech execs who are about to fire thousands of more workers in the months ahead might have to actually put some thought into writing such a letter. 

Tyler Durden
Fri, 01/27/2023 – 17:25

Truckers’ Positive Drug Tests Up 18% In 2022

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Truckers’ Positive Drug Tests Up 18% In 2022

By John Gallagher of FreightWaves,

The latest data from the Drug and Alcohol Clearinghouse reveals that drug use among commercial drivers may be at its highest level since the federal repository was set up in 2019 — but more are being cleared to drive again as well.

Total drug violations reported into the clearinghouse in 2022, including positive tests and refusals to take a drug test, increased 18% to 69,668 compared with last year’s 59,011, according to the most recent statistics released this week by the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration. That rate almost doubled the 9.2% annual increase in drug violations reported in 2021.

Much of the increase can be attributed to violations related to marijuana, the substance identified most in positive tests. Marijuana violations increased 31.6% in 2022 compared with 2021, to 40,916. That compares to a 5.3% increase between 2020 and 2021.

In fact, positive drug tests reported into the clearinghouse in 2022 increased in 12 of 14 substances tracked by the database, with only hydrocodone and heroin showing decreases.

Some of the increase in total violations can be attributed to the fact that completed registrations from drivers, employers and third-party organizations have been added each year since the clearinghouse began accepting registrations in September 2019. However, the number of registrations added annually has steadily declined since 2020 as the database gradually fills with all FMCSA-regulated registrants.

Regarding marijuana specifically, there has been speculation that increasingly liberal state marijuana laws could also be a factor — even though federal law preempts state law regarding the use of both medicinal and recreational marijuana by commercial drivers.

“While the numbers are a little jarring, it is clear the clearinghouse is working as intended,” P. Sean Garney, co-director of Scopelitis Transportation Consulting, which specializes in truck safety, regulations and compliance, told FreightWaves.

Garney pointed to data in the report showing that there were double the number of positive tests for preemployment screening versus positive tests taken randomly from drivers last year.

“It’s far more common for a driver to test positive in a preemployment environment, and before the clearinghouse, carriers had no way to know if a driver they were considering was prohibited from operating a [commercial motor vehicle] based on that test,” Garney said. “[This data] shows me the system works.”

In addition, the data shows that more drivers are getting rehabilitated and reentering the trucking workforce, he said. At the end of 2020, only 12.5% of drivers who had tested positive had been cleared to drive again. In 2021 that number increased to 22.7%, and it increased again in 2022 to 27.6%.

Garney also noted that starting on Jan. 6 — after three full years of clearinghouse operation — motor carriers were no longer required to query a driver’s previous employer to request drug and alcohol testing histories, because they are now able to go back three years within the clearinghouse.

“Some carriers have been nervous that eliminating the previous employer inquiry might cause them to miss important information about a driver’s drug testing history,” he said.

However, with more than 3 million drivers and over 443,000 employers registered, “the clearinghouse is operating at full tilt and as intended, making it a great source of truth for this information. This should make wary carriers feel better about streamlining their procedures by using the clearinghouse.”

Tyler Durden
Fri, 01/27/2023 – 17:05

Eight Killed, Ten Wounded In Jerusalem Synagogue “Terror Attack”

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Eight Killed, Ten Wounded In Jerusalem Synagogue “Terror Attack”

Eight people were killed and ten more wounded when a gunman opened fire outside an east Jerusalem synagogue Friday night, according to the official Twitter account of the Israel Foreign Ministry. 

AP News said the gunman was Palestinian. Police said the attacker was “neutralized” by security forces while attempting to flee the scene. 

US State Department spokesman Vedant Patel condemned the deadly attack, calling it “absolutely horrific.” 

“We condemn this apparent terrorist attack in the strongest terms. Our commitment to Israel’s security remains ironclad, and we are in direct touch with our Israeli partners,” Patel told reporters. 

The attack came amid soaring tensions between Israel–Palestine, some of the worst in years. Thursday was the deadliest day in the occupied West Bank in two decades after Israeli armed forces raided a building in Jenin and killed nine people. In response, rockets were fired into Israel from Gaza. The Palestinian Authority halted all security coordination with Israel. 

On Friday, Israeli Defence Force said fighter jets bombed Gaza, targeting what’s believed to be a military base and an underground rocket manufacturing plant operated by Hamas. 

The eruption in violence comes ahead of US Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s weekend visit to Israel and the West Bank.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 01/27/2023 – 16:45

The “Great Reset” & The Future Of Money… Here’s What You Need To Know

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The “Great Reset” & The Future Of Money… Here’s What You Need To Know

Authored by Nick Giambruno via InternationalMan.com,

International Man: What is the idea behind the so-called “Great Reset?”

Nick Giambruno: We’ve seen countless examples of the self-identified elite in the West using that term.

But let me first ask, who put these people in charge? Who anointed them the leaders of the world?

They’re not only talking about resetting the financial system but dramatically changing the nature of life.

I think something sinister is going on, and they’re not even trying to hide it anymore. It’s all in the open now.

So, let me try to summarize something incredibly complex.

These people recognize the current international monetary system based on the US dollar is on its way out. Even Jerome Powell, the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, acknowledges that the US dollar’s supremacy is fading.

Although they would prefer to continue milking the current system, they realize it’s failing and the need to bridge the gap to a new system which they hope to control.

Nobody knows what the next international monetary system will look like—not even the elites. However, they know what they want it to look like.

They want a complete control grid with central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), movement licenses, mandatory medical procedures, and a social credit system, among other nasty things.

Simply put, the Great Reset agenda is a high-tech, totalitarian, global panopticon.

In short, they want total control over you in all domains—a new feudalism.

They’re emotionally manipulating people with fear and false narratives into accepting things they ordinarily wouldn’t—like their enslavement.

That’s what their Great Reset agenda is all about. It’s self-evidently anathema to personal freedom, human dignity, and self-determination.

Whether the self-proclaimed elites get all or some of those things is an open question.

The best scenario for mankind would be for most major governments to go bankrupt—which they are well on their way to—before they can implement the Great Reset agenda.

International Man: It seems changing the money so that governments can have more control over people is a big part of this plan. How do you see it?

Nick Giambruno: I see it like this.

Don’t let any government, whether it’s the US government, the Chinese government, or a global government entity like the IMF, tell you what money is.

Money does not need to come from the government. That’s a total misnomer that the average person has been brainwashed into believing.

It would be similar to transporting yourself back in time and asking the average person in the Soviet Union, “Where do shoes come from?”

They would say, “Well, the government makes the shoes. Where else could they come from? Who else could make the shoes?”

It’s the same mentality here regarding money today—except it’s much more widespread.

The truth is money doesn’t need to come from the government any more than shoes do.

People have used stones, glass beads, salt, cattle, seashells, gold, silver, and other commodities as money at different times.

However, for over 2,500 years, gold has been mankind’s most enduring form of money.

Gold didn’t become money by accident or because some politicians decreed it. Instead, it became money because countless individuals throughout history and across many different civilizations subjectively came to the same conclusion: gold is money.

It resulted from a market process of people looking for the best way to store and exchange value.

So, why did they go to gold? What makes gold attractive as money?

Here’s why.

Gold has a set of unique characteristics that make it suitable as money.

Gold is durable, divisible, consistent, convenient, scarce, and most important, it’s the “hardest” of all physical commodities. In other words, gold is “hard to produce” relative to existing stockpiles and the one physical commodity most resistant to inflation of its supply. That’s what gives gold its monetary properties.

Bitcoin shares many of gold’s monetary characteristics. Like physical gold, Bitcoin does not have counterparty risk, and nobody can arbitrarily inflate the supply.

Here’s the bottom line.

I would encourage people to be sovereign individuals and recognize what works best for them as a vehicle to store and exchange value, rather than thoughtlessly accepting whatever the government gives them as money.

International Man: What makes government money dangerous?

Nick Giambruno: Governments reap enormous power from their racket of printing fake money out of thin air and forcing their citizens to use it. Whether it’s Venezuela, Lebanon, Argentina, or the US, it’s the same scam. It allows governments to act like vampires and feast on their citizens’ savings.

Imagine if you had that kind of immense power?

You could create something with little to no effort and then force everyone else to accept and use it as money. You could create paper wealth out of thin air and cut your enemies off from the economy. You’d be very powerful.

That’s why all governments treasure their monopoly on money.

Remember, government money is political money. It’s a potent tool to steal from and control you.

Remember what happened to the truckers in Canada in early 2022? With no due process or judicial review, the Canadian government seized their bank accounts at the flip of a switch. The government granted itself the power and made it a simple administrative task.

We will see many more of these kinds of actions—and more severe ones—soon.

International Man: What can the average person do about this?

Nick Giambruno: I’ve studied money, monetary policy, and monetary history. I’ve been to Zimbabwe, Argentina, Lebanon, and other countries that have experienced hyperinflation.

In my view, the most important attribute of money is that it is hard to produce—its “hardness.” In other words, something that is resistant to inflation of its supply.

Think of money like a claim on human time. It’s like stored life or energy.

Would you want to put that in something that somebody else can create with no effort or cost?

Of course, you wouldn’t.

It would be like storing your life savings in Chuck E. Cheese arcade tokens or airline frequent flyer miles. Putting your savings into government currencies isn’t that much different.

What you want to do is to put your money into something that someone else cannot make easily.

Here’s the bottom line.

The vast majority of humanity does not understand what makes for a good money. Instead, they’ve been hypnotized into believing something inferior—the scraps of paper or digital entries that governments can create with no effort—is good money.

It’s a sad state of affairs and one of the biggest swindles in human history.

To enact their Great Reset agenda, the elites count on the average person not understanding the issues around money. They are relying on people blindly swallowing their poisonous CBDCs.

The most effective thing the average person can do to fight against this agenda is not to store their life force in government currencies. That way, the government—and the elites behind them—cannot use inflation to siphon off your monetary energy to fund their nefarious plans.

The idea is to put a meaningful portion of your savings into hard assets, apolitical, neutral money that has no counterparty risk and is resistant to inflation.

I put physical gold coins in your possession, as well as Bitcoin, in that category. But only Bitcoin where you control the private keys and do not depend on the permission of a third party—like an exchange or custodian—to access your money.

There’s much more to cover…

*  *  *

I have more details in an urgent PDF report I just released on where this is all headed. It includes how to protect yourself and the best ways position yourself for big gains no matter what happens. It’s called “The Most Dangerous Economic Crisis in 100 Years… the Top 3 Strategies You Need Right Now.” Click here to download the PDF it now.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 01/27/2023 – 16:28

Massive Short-Squeeze Sparks Surge In Stocks Despite Hawkish Shift In Rates

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Massive Short-Squeeze Sparks Surge In Stocks Despite Hawkish Shift In Rates

US Macro data surprised to the upside this week (the biggest weekly jump in the macro surprise index since August 2022) helping lift global macro notably higher, sparking hopes for a ‘soft landing‘ (or no landing?)…

Source: Bloomberg

Digging into the data, it is very much the Labor market that is holding up the macro data, as ‘soft’ survey data slumps… (so let’s hope all these mass layoffs don’t ever show up in the official data)…

Source: Bloomberg

However, the ‘soft landing’ narrative pushed Fed rate trajectory expectations hawkishly firmer… Translation – the market has removed 10bps of expected easing from the second half of 2023 in the last week or so….

Source: Bloomberg

But the markets ignored all that and pushed financial conditions to their loosest level since August (dramatically pulling forward expectations for The Fed to pivot to cuts)…

Source: Bloomberg

For context, financial conditions are as loose as they were in June of last year, 100s of bps of Fed Funds rate lower…

Source: Bloomberg

And financial conditions eased thanks in large part to soaring stocks this week. Led by Nasdaq (up 4 weeks in a row) which rallied over 5% (its best week since early Nov)

There was some aggressive selling into the close today which left The Dow almost unchanged (Nasdaq still managed a 1% gain)…

The meltup of the last couple of days was heavily influenced by 0DTE gamma squeezes and good old-fashioned short-squeezes. Today saw ‘most shorted’ stocks soar almost 7% – the biggest short-squeeze day since Nov 10th (3rd biggest short-squeeze day in 18 months)

Source: Bloomberg

For context, unprofitable tech stocks ripped 13% off their lows on Wednesday morning (and are up 30% YTD)…

Source: Bloomberg

The S&P is getting close to a golden cross (50DMA crossing above its 200DMA)…

Nasdaq closed above its 200DMA (at its highest since September)…

TSLA has been up for 6 straight days, rallying over 40% – its biggest such move since July 2020…

VIX was crushed this week to an 18 handle, but we do note that demand for downside protection has picked up as skews have started to accelerate…

Source: Bloomberg

Treasuries were mixed on the week with the long-end outperforming and the belly of the curve weakest (5Y +6bps, 30Y -3bps). Yields tumbled as stocks rallied today however during the US day session…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar ended the week marginally lower (finding support at the May 2022 lows). NOTE that every day this week the dollar was dumped around the European close…

Source: Bloomberg

Cryptos were mixed this week with Bitcoin outperforming, up around 5% holding above $23,000…

Source: Bloomberg

Ethereum notably underperformed on the week (down around 2-3%), but has been lagging bitcoin significantly for two weeks…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold managed very modest gains this week, the 6th straight weekly gain for the precious metal…

Oil prices fell on the week with WTI back below $80…

NatGas fell for the 6th straight week, with Henry Hub trading at its lowest since April 2021 (bouncing off $3)…

Finally, we wonder do traders really think Jay Powell wants to see LUCID and all the worst stocks of last year (BZFD?) exploding blindly higher on the back of frontrunning The Fed’s potential for a pivot to a cut (not just a pause)

Source: Bloomberg

Do traders really think The Fed will do that kind of pivot in the face of just a ‘soft landing’?

In fact, as Bloomberg pointed out today, the landing could be a lot harder. Analysts have pointed to diminishing pandemic stimulus cash cushions and a declining saving rate as reasons US consumers could ultimately pull back and tip the economy into recession.

Source: Bloomberg

Spending data show households did indeed cut back on purchases in the last two months of 2022. And at the same time, they started socking away more money throughout the fourth quarter, suggesting Americans may be preparing for tougher times ahead.

And the equity market is definitely not pricing in a harder-landing for the economy (no matter how quickly one believes the pivot would come).

Tyler Durden
Fri, 01/27/2023 – 16:02

Something’s Gotta Give…

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Something’s Gotta Give…

Authored by Jesse Felder via TheFelderReport.com,

We’re at a fascinating juncture here in the markets.

Stocks have sold off hard for a little over a year now but have rallied once again in the short run. The result is that the S&P 500 Index has formed a fairly tight coil or pennant pattern over the past several months. And, as my friend Peter Atwater points out, this coil is merely a visual representation of a fierce battle going on in the markets.

This tug-of-war between bulls and bears is centered on the trends in inflation, monetary policy and the economy. The recent rally in stocks has been driven by the idea that inflation will rapidly come down back to the Fed’s 2% target, without an economic recession as catalyst, allowing the Fed to end and even reverse its rate hike campaign later this year. As to inflation, CPI swaps are now pricing in a rapid decline in inflation over the course of this year.

The stock market clearly sees this as good news. However, as the article above notes, a decline in inflation that rapid has only ever happened during steep economic recessions like that seen in the wake of the Great Financial Crisis just over a decade ago. Still, the market appears to be content to ignore the possibility of recession and discount strong earnings gains this year and next.

But if earnings are going to soar in a way that would preclude recession, then it would likely mean that inflation won’t come down back to 2%, as my friend Julian Brigden suggests. Markups have been a significant factor in both the strength of earnings and inflation over the past couple of years. And if inflation remains elevated, then the Fed may find itself coming under a great deal of pressure to keep interest rates elevated longer than the market expects if not raise them even higher than they have already indicated.

Of course, if the Fed is forced to raise interest rates even higher, the currently elevated probability of recession will grow even greater. A number of indicators, such as the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index, suggest recession is not only likely but may have already begun. This perhaps helps to explain why many markets are so sanguine regarding inflation and also why they expect the Fed to be cutting rates later this year, rather than hiking.

And if the Fed is going to cut rates later this year, against its most recent guidance which suggests rates will remain elevated for a prolonged period of time, they would likely only do so in reaction to overwhelming evidence that recession has begun and inflation pressures will continue to wane as a result. Of course, this may not be the positive catalyst stock market bulls might hope for; just the opposite.

So either we avoid recession and earnings will show strong gains, forcing the Fed to get even more hawkish than markets currently expect (bringing on recession at a later time) or inflation will come down in reaction to a steep recession that will allow the Fed to cut interest rates once again. Neither scenario sounds particularly bullish for the stock market, especially given the fact that valuations remain at historically extreme levels.

But I guess we’ll have to see whether bulls or the bears exhaust first.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 01/27/2023 – 14:24

Highly-Cited ‘Hamilton 68’ Russiagate Tracker Is Total Hoax: Taibbi

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Highly-Cited ‘Hamilton 68’ Russiagate Tracker Is Total Hoax: Taibbi

Out of the caterwaul of cries proclaiming that Russian collusion, and Russian influence operations, were the only reason Donald Trump won the 2016 US election (a hoax funded and promoted by his opponent, Hillary Clinton), a website which claimed to track said Kremlin efforts sprung forth, and was used to justify baseless allegations;

Hamilton 68: a widely-cited, (indirectly) state-sponsored propaganda tool.

The website claims to monitor a secret list of Twitter accounts which they accused of Kremlin control, however it’s impossible to verify their claims as the group has never disclosed their methodology.

Former FBI counterintelligence agent and “disinformation” expert Clint Watts, the spokesman for Hamilton

As Matt Taibbi notes via Racket:

Hamilton 68 was and is a computerized “dashboard” designed to be used by reporters and academics to measure “Russian disinformation”. It was the brainchild of former FBI agent (and current MSNBC “disinformation expert”) Clint Watts, and backed by the German Marshall Fund and the Alliance for Securing Democracy, a bipartisan think-tank. The latter’s advisory panel includes former acting CIA chief Michael Morell, former Ambassador to Russia Michael McFaul, former Hillary for America chair John Podesta, and onetime Weekly Standard editor Bill Kristol. –Racket

And now, Taibbi has torn Hamilton 68’s ‘black box’ asunder after reviewing the latest batch of “Twitter Files.”

As Taibbi notes via Racket:

Ambitious media frauds Stephen Glass and Jayson Blair crippled the reputations of the New Republic and New York Times, respectively, by slipping years of invented news stories into their pages. Thanks to the Twitter Files, we can welcome a new member to their infamous club: Hamilton 68.

If one goes by volume alone, this oft-cited neoliberal think-tank that spawned hundreds of fraudulent headlines and TV news segments may go down as the single greatest case of media fabulism in American history. Virtually every major news organization in America is implicated, including NBC, CBS, ABC, PBS, CNN, MSNBC, The New York Times and the Washington Post. Mother Jones alone did at least 14 stories pegged to the group’s “research.” Even fact-checking sites like Politifact and Snopes cited Hamilton 68 as sources.

A small sample of Hamilton 68-sourced stories.

*  *  *

Twitter thought they were full of shit

Taibbi reveals that Twitter was concerned enough about Hamilton 68’s claims that they ordered a forensic analysis which found that of 644 accounts, just 36 were registered in Russia – many of which were associated with news outlet RT.

Note the second page lists many of the different types of shadow-banning techniques that existed at Twitter even in 2017

As Taibbi further notes (emphasis ours):

Examining further, Twitter execs were shocked. The accounts Hamilton 68 claimed were linked to “Russian influence activities online” were not only overwhelmingly English-language (86%), but mostly “legitimate people,” largely in the U.S., Canada, and Britain. Grasping right away that Twitter might be implicated in a moral outrage, they wrote that these account-holders “need to know they’ve been unilaterally labeled Russian stooges without evidence or recourse.”

Other comments in internal company emails:

“These accounts are neither strongly Russian nor strongly bots.”

“No evidence to support the statement that the dashboard is a finger on the pulse of Russian information ops.”

“Hardly evidence of a massive influence campaign.”

Declared Trust and Safety chief Yoel Roth: “I think we need to just call this out on the bullshit it is.”

The two founders of Hamilton 68, the blue-and-red team of former counselor to Marco Rubio Jamie Fly and Hillary for America Foreign Policy Advisor Laura Rosenberger, told Politico they couldn’t reveal the names of the accounts because “the Russians will simply shut them down.” Tchya, right. One look at the list reveals the real reason they couldn’t make it public.

This was not faulty science. It was a scam. Instead of tracking how “Russia” influenced American attitudes, Hamilton 68 simply collected a handful of mostly real, mostly American accounts, and described their organic conversations as Russian scheming. As Roth put it, “Virtually any conclusion drawn from [the dashboard] will take conversations in conservative circles on Twitter and accuse them of being Russian.”

Twitter execs wanted to out Hamilton 68!?

“Why can’t we say we’ve investigated… and citing Hamilton 68 is being wrong, irresponsible, and biased?” one exec asked, after Russians were blamed for hyping the #ParklandShooting hashtag.

Trust and Safety head Yoel Roth even wanted to confront Hamilton 68 – writing in one email “My recommendation at this stage is an ultimatum: you release the list or we do.”

“I also have been very frustrated in not calling out Hamilton 68 more publicly, but understand we have to play a longer game here,” said Carlos Monje, the future senior advisor to Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg.

But Future White House and NSC spokesperson Emily Horne advised against it.

 As Taibbi further notes:

So the “legitimate people,” as one Twitter exec called them, never found out they’d been used as fodder for mountains of news stories about “Russian influence.” Because the #TwitterFiles contain the list, they’ve begun finding out.”

Hamilton’s victims speak out

“I’m shocked,” said Sonia Monsour, who as a child lived through civil war in Lebanon. “Supposedly in a free world, we are being watched at many levels, by what we say online.”

Another person alleged by Hamilton to be a Russian is Chicago-based lawyer David Shestokas.

“I’ve written a book about the U.S. Constitution,” he said, adding “How I made a list like this is incredible to me.”

Continued:

The Hamilton 68 story shows how the illusion of ongoing “Russian interference” worked. The magic trick was generated via a confluence of interests, between think-tanks, media, and government. Before, we could only speculate. Now we know: the “Russian threat” was, in this case at least, just a bunch of ordinary Americans, dressed up to look like a Red Menace. Jayson Blair had a hell of an imagination, but even he couldn’t have come up with a scheme this obscene. Shame on every news outlet that hasn’t renounced these tales. -Matt Taibbi

And Elon with the last word:

Tyler Durden
Fri, 01/27/2023 – 14:01

Netherlands, Japan, US Reach Agreement To Throttle China’s Chip Ambitions As Tech War Heats Up

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Netherlands, Japan, US Reach Agreement To Throttle China’s Chip Ambitions As Tech War Heats Up

The Biden administration could soon get the Netherlands and Japan to join the US in limiting China’s access to advanced semiconductor machinery, undermining Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s ambitions to become a dominant superpower. 

According to Bloomberg, US, Dutch and Japanese officials wrapped up talks today on new guidelines for what type of chip-making equipment can be exported to China. Negotiations are closed doors, and there is no plan for a public announcement of restrictions. 

The Netherlands will likely curb exports of ASML Holding NV’s ultraviolet lithography machines that produce advanced chips to China. Japan will likely embrace similar limits for Nikon Corp. 

Sources told Reuters that a deal between Dutch and US officials could be reached in several days. Without Japanese or Dutch cooperation, the Biden administration’s move to curb China’s ability to produce high-tech chips for military applications would be limited. 

On Oct. 7, President Biden unveiled a sweeping set of export controls that ban Chinese companies from purchasing advanced chips and chip-making equipment without a license. 

“We have been in discussion with the United States and other countries regarding the export-control regime,” Yasutoshi Nishimura, Japan’s Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry, told Reuters on Friday.

“We will implement any measures in accordance with our Foreign Exchange Law and through international cooperation,” he added. 

Last fall, Mark Williams and Zichun Huang, analysts at Capital Economics, wrote in a report, “the US moves are a major threat to China’s technological ambitions.” The analysts noted that the global semiconductor industry is “almost entirely” dependent on the US. 

What’s very clear is the US-China tech war is accelerating. 

Tyler Durden
Fri, 01/27/2023 – 13:44