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The Investments That Defied Inflation In 2022

The Investments That Defied Inflation In 2022

As stock markets flailed and the age of zero interest was only slowly beginning to end, 2022 was not kind to investors.

The year was also Wall Street’s worst since the Great Recession, causing most shareholders leaving markets owning less than what they started with.

Those with more conservative investments, like a savings account, could have had the last laugh, had it not been for 2022’s rampant inflation that made even a stagnant account balance worth quite a bit less in real world terms.

For more adventurous investors with the right amount of money, so-called luxury investments or investments of passion could have been a way out of this predicament.

As Statista’s Katharina Buchholz details below, a recent study by Knight Frank details flashy asset options outside of stocks and other financial products that blew past last year’s inflation rate with their average increases in value…

Infographic: The Investments That Defied Inflation in 2022 | Statista

You will find more infographics at Statista

Art, for example, rose in price by an average of 29 percent over the course of 2022 – well above the year-over-year U.S. inflation rate in December of 6.5 percent.

An investment in a classic car yielded a value increase of 25 percent across the category, while a statement watch increased in price on average by 18 percent. Handbags, expensive wine and collector coins were still up more than inflation between the beginning and the end of 2022. Some luxury investments didn’t make the inflation cut in 2022, but at a 3-6 percent value increase, these luxury asset classes still beat the average savings account interest rate, which stood at only 0.35% in early 2023 despite central banks rates having left zero interest territory.

The study also notes the 10-year value increases of these luxury investment categories. Here, rare whisky is winning out by a large margin with prices increasing by an enormous 373 percent over the time period.

Tyler Durden
Sun, 03/12/2023 – 09:55

The Collapse Of SVB Portends Real Dangers

The Collapse Of SVB Portends Real Dangers

Authored by Jeffrey Tucker via The Epoch Times,

Thus far in this 3-year fiasco of mismanagement and corruption, we’ve avoided a financial crisis. That’s for specific reasons. We just had not traveled there in the trajectory of the inevitable. Are we there yet? Maybe. In any case, the speed of change is accelerating. All that awaits is to observe the extent of the contagion.

The failure of the Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), $212 billion in assets until only recently, is a huge mess and a possible foreshadowing. Its fixed-rate bond holdings declined rapidly in market valuation due to changed market conditions. Its portfolio crashed further due to a depositor run. And it all happened in less than a few days.

It’s all an extension of Fed policy to curb inflation, reversing a 13-year zero-rate policy. This of course pushed up rates in the middle and right side of the yield curve, devaluing existing bond holdings locked into older rate patterns. Investors noticed and then depositors too. The high-flying institution that specialized in providing liquidity in industries that have lost their luster suddenly found itself very vulnerable.

In addition, the bank was exposed with a portfolio of collateralized mortgage obligations and mortgage-backed securities. But with rates rising, those are coming under stress too as high leverage in housing and real estate become untenable amidst falling valuations. Borrowers are finding themselves under water and that in turn adds to stress on lenders.

And where did SVB, and the entire banking industry, get the funds to bulk up their portfolios with such debt holdings? You guessed it: stimulus payments. Billions flooded in and it had to be parked somewhere making some return. At the time it seemed like a good deal, until Fed policy changed.

A house of cards comes to mind. But perhaps a better metaphor is a game of billiards in which every move introduces a cascade of new issues. Lockdowns prompted immense government spending which produced debt that was quickly monetized and eventually caused inflation, prompting the Fed to reverse course with the largest/fastest rate increases in history.

This destabilized (or restabilized) production structures away from the right side of the yield curve toward the left, shifting capital in search of return to the consumer-goods sector. Labor has begun to follow, thus creating a surplus of resources in information tech and a shortage in retails.

It was always naïve to think that this shift would take place without touching the banking institutions that shoveled leverage in the direction of industries that thrived during lockdowns but are cutting back massively now.

These banks are exposed in speculative ventures from which capital is fleeing. Their asset portfolios were tied, as usual, to a continuation of the status quo that stopped continuing, so investors and depositors are fleeing to safety.

Could the Fed have anticipated this? Probably. But what choice did it have? Again, this entire mess traces first to lockdowns and second to Ben Bernanke’s preposterous policies as Fed Chair in 2008. He imagined that he would fix a financial crisis by abolishing a natural force like interest rates on bonds. Then he pulled a fancy trick of keeping his “quantitative easing” off the streets by having the Fed pay more for deposits than the same money could earn in markets.

What was the problem? The problem was that capital is never still. It is always on the hunt for return. It found it in Big Tech and internet media, bolstered by seemingly infinite resources for advertising and hiring. This further caused an absolute gutting of normal rates of saving simply because there was no money in it. This situation persisted for a good 13 years.

Jerome Powell took over the Fed with the determination to put an end to the nonsense. He hoped for a soft landing. But then came the pandemic lockdowns. He was called upon to provide funding for the idiocy of a panicked Congress that spent many trillions as fast as possible, which only perpetuated lockdowns.

Everything seemed fine for a while, as it always does, but by January 2021, the bill came due in the form of roaring price inflation. The Fed had to reverse course dramatically. Starting at zero, it had to get federal funds rates to equal or exceed price increases (the terminal rate). It is not there yet so it has no choice but to barrel ahead.

The rate increases of course drew capital out of the industries that thrived over the lockdown period and back to retail and consumer goods. But meanwhile, the yield curve responded, as it must. From 30 days to 30 years, every bond offering was repriced, causing institutions holding old bonds to look like chumps. This is where SVB found itself, with a suddenly declining market valuation.

The coup de grâce was depositor behavior. In the search for safety, cash has found the return on short-term Treasuries far more attractive than speculative ventures. The flight to safety doomed the bank and its many partners in the financial industry. It’s a huge wake-up call for the whole of markets. No one in the industry is sitting comfortably today.

My concern here is that people will look at all these disasters in isolation. They are not isolated. They trace to the catastrophic decision in 2020 to lock down and fund those policies with money that did not exist until it was created.

That decision doomed the Fed’s plans to unravel its previous stupid policies and thus set us on the course toward calamity.

At this point, I’m sorry to report, no one is in a position to stop anything. Markets can be ferocious under these conditions. Markets are not all knowing but once they lose trust, there is no stopping the stampede of incredulity. There is no one at the Fed who can stop it and no wise managers at the top who can patch things up.

Take note of the collapse of bank stocks only hours after regulators took over SVB. My friends, we could be in for a wild ride. Stay safe.

Tyler Durden
Sun, 03/12/2023 – 09:20

TikTok: Social Media Heavyweight

TikTok: Social Media Heavyweight

The White House has endorsed a Senate bill that members unveiled Tuesday, which would give the U.S. government more far-reaching powers in restricting and even banning foreign-linked software or electronics producers. As Statista’s Katharina Buchholz reports, the draft law is considered to be aimed at Chinese-owned social media network TikTok, even though it doesn’t explicitly name the service.

The Restricting the Emergence of Security Threats that Risk Information and Communications Technology Act RESTRICT for short – is being unveiled after two years of largely fruitless negotiations with TikTok to address U.S. national security concerns surrounding the app.

Concern over how much of TikTok’s user data could be seen – and potentially weaponized – by the Chinese government has been heightening in the U.S. and Europe alike.

As seen in data by Statista Market Insights, TikTok has curated a large following in the United States and Europe, with its app revenue market share surpassing those of older social media networks like Instagram and Facebook – both U.S. owned.

Infographic: TikTok: Social Media Heavyweight | Statista

You will find more infographics at Statista

In the United States, TikTok’s share is already comprising 26 percent of the market, far ahead of Instagram’s 14 percent. However, advertisers have been sticking to longer-standing services. TikTok’s social media ad spending share in the U.S. as well as the UK and Germany hovered between 9-12 percent, behind larger ad players Facebook, Instagram as well as professional networks Linkedin (i.e. equivalent Xing in the German market).

Tyler Durden
Sun, 03/12/2023 – 08:45

Why Credit Needs A Golden Anchor

Why Credit Needs A Golden Anchor

Authored by Alasdair Macleod via GoldMoney.com,

This article examines the relationship between credit and its anchor in value. Today, that anchor is fiat currency, which is both parochial and unstable. Historically, and in law it has always been gold.

It is a common error to think of credit in a narrow sense, without realising that officially recorded credit in the form of banknotes and deposit accounts with the commercial banks are only a minor part of the total credit in an economy. This article takes a holistic view of credit.

The relationship between credit and whatever provides an anchor to its value is a far larger topic from that commonly discussed in economic journals. It involves an understanding of the relationships between currency credit and commercial bank credit, the consequences of which rarely occur to economic commentators.

There is evidence that changes in central bank credit have a greater impact on prices than an equivalent change in commercial bank credit ­- a new and important topic for our consideration.

This article draws on the history of law as it applies to banking, money, and credit. For both contemporary economists and the layman, it involves some concepts that may be novel to them. But given that they concern the very survival of contemporary currencies, they are worth making the effort to understand.

Introduction

The purpose of this article is to explain why gold anchors credit values, an anchor which is absent in the fiat currencies that seek to replace it. It is a topic over which there is considerable confusion, not least from the two dominant schools of economic thought: Keynesian and monetarist. And while Ludwig von Mises, who was more responsible than anyone else for promoting the Austrian school of economics in the US explained and denounced inflationism, his work predominantly dealt with the inflation of fiat currencies, without much examination of the second level tier of credit issued by commercial banks, other than establishing its relationship with the business cycle. 

It became a short step for many followers of von Mises in America and Hayek in Britain to conclude that the cycle of bank credit is an economic evil and that if banks were forced to become banks of deposit, acting as custodians while other institutions would act as arrangers of finance, then we would abolish the credit cycle. 

Clearly, the expansion of credit tends to undermine its purchasing power. But the relationship between the changes in the volume of credit and its purchasing power is not straightforward. And then there is the difference between central bank credit and commercial bank credit to consider: does one undermine purchasing power more than the other? So far as I’m aware there is no economic literature examining this possibility.

The current situation of currencies with no relationship to gold has only been in place for fifty-two years. Before that, the link was gradually eroded from Roosevelt’s ban on ownership by American citizens in 1933, its revaluation in dollar terms the following year, and the Bretton Woods agreement in 1944. In has been a journey away from sound money lasting ninety years. Despite this progressive attrition, prices, particularly of commodities and raw materials were relatively stable before the ending of all links between gold and currencies. Now we should turn to empirical evidence of price behaviour under a proper gold standard, as shown in the chart below.

This is the only long run of statistical evidence of price stability under a gold standard and is of wholesale prices in the UK following the Napoleonic Wars. As usually happens, there was a post war slump as war spending ceased, reversing war-time inflation, and leading to lower prices. The gold sovereign coin standard was introduced in 1817, which continued to be exchangeable for Bank of England banknotes until the First World War. And as the new gold coin standard bedded in, the cyclical changes in price levels gradually diminished, partly due to improvements in the banking system, such as in the clearing system set up by the London banks, which was joined by the Bank of England in 1864.

Before 1914, the British government paid down most of its record high levels of Napoleonic War debt. Through industrial development, the British economy improved the living standards of the people substantially. And despite its diminutive size, Britain became the wealthiest nation in the world. As can be seen from the chart, after a shaky start producer prices became remarkably stable, barely changing in aggregate over almost a century.

The Bank of England’s banknote issue, which was encashable into gold sovereigns on demand, stood at £22,082,909 in 1820. The 1844 Bank Charter Act eliminated the note issues of the other London banks, but despite their removal from circulation and after a mid-century dip the BoE’s note issue only increased to £28,437,985 by 1900. Between 1844 and 1900, broad money supply is estimated to have increased by nearly eleven times and there was a substantial increase in commercial bills as well, which being credit should not be neglected.[i]

Despite this expansion of the quantity of credit, there was little net effect on producer price levels. In 1844, the composite price index stood at 8.9, and in 2000 it was 9.2. This suggests that an expansion of commercial bank credit has less impact on prices than an expansion of the note issue, and that not all forms of credit are equal in their effect on prices. 

It is worth pausing for a moment to let that sink in. In terms of its effect on purchasing power, it has been demonstrated that changes in the quantities of bank and other wider forms of credit have significantly less impact on the general level of prices than changes in the quantity of central bank credit.

But we must introduce a caveat: the expansion of bank credit and commercial bills in nineteenth century Britain did not generally provide finance for consumption, thereby inflating prices. Today, instead of gold we are all on a loose dollar standard with respect to its role as the principal reserve currency and its function for pricing commodities and international transactions. And without gold’s steadying influence, the principal factor in the relationship between gold, a currency, and subordinate bank credit is how peoples’ perceptions change when credit expands. This is particularly true when credit expansion funds consumer spending.

If consumers spend the additional credit, they will tend to drive up the general price level measured in the currency. If they save it, they will tend to drive up the level of capital available for investment, benefiting manufacturing methods and thereby introducing a contrary factor which should restrict rising consumer prices. Furthermore, changes in the application of credit between purely financial activities and the non-financial GDP economy contribute to making long runs of price data misleading for assessing the impact of increases in the quantity of credit on the purchasing power of a circulating media.

In determining how the circulating media is valued with respect to the goods and services being exchanged, we cannot ignore their application to the ancient classifications of wealth. Aristotle made the connection thus: “We call wealth all things whose value can be measured in money” (Nicomachean Ethics Book V). The true meaning of wealth is exchangeable rights. And economics, or commerce, is basically the science of exchangeable rights.

There are three types of exchangeable rights which might be bought, sold, or exchanged:

  1. Material property or the right to it, being a specific material substance, which in law is referred to as corporeal property, alternatively referred to as material wealth.

  2. Immaterial property, being an individual’s intellectual and labour capacity to render any sort of service. Corporate goodwill falls into this category.

  3. Incorporeal property which is neither material nor immaterial. It is in the broadest sense represented by debt, which is synonymous with credit, obligations which are exchangeable and are therefore wealth. It may be in an individual’s possession, not yet in an individual’s possession, or may only exist at a future date, such as the right to an income stream. But the right to it when it does come into existence is present and may be bought and sold just as if it was a material property. In Roman and English law, incorporeal property is a right separated from any specific corpus.

It can be immediately observed that gold coin in possession is material, or corporeal property, while credit, being a promise or obligation, is incorporeal. But the value of items, either being personal or collective wealth, in all three categories must be expressed in a medium of exchange. If that medium is a material property, it is a completely different thing from being incorporeal.

Under a gold standard, incorporeal property took its value from a material property. Under today’s fiat dollar standard, all forms of incorporeal property take their value from another incorporeal property, banknotes, which are a central bank’s liability. Credit is only valued in another credit, an arrangement which is inherently unstable, irrespective of changes in its quantity. Picking all this apart is the essence of the riddle we face.

Understanding gold — real money

Since the ending of barter, various corporeal properties have been used as media of exchange, but ultimately, various communities trading with each other and other completely independent communities settled on three metals as the best stores of value: gold, silver, and copper. Of these, gold emerged in the nineteenth century as setting the common standard which incorporeal credit referred to for its value, and for which all categories of wealth took their valuation cue. 

The physical properties which make gold suitable for this role are well known. Less appreciated, perhaps, is that the quantity of above-ground gold stocks has increased over time at approximately the same rate as the world’s population, that is at an annual average since the Reformation of about 1.2%. And if we take its growth rate from the beginning of the twentieth century, when the rate of population growth began to accelerate, the annual growth rate in above-ground stocks doubled. Therefore, its use-value to humanity has remained broadly constant.

It is impossible to quantify the split between the quantities of gold deployed into the two principal categories ­­— monetary and ornamental. In recent years, analysts have assumed the split to be about 60% in favour of jewellery, and 40% monetary; but there are no credible figures to back these estimates up. And most of the jewellery market is in Asia, where women regard it as wearable money as well as being ornamental. It is used by their husbands to secure credit from moneylenders and pawnshops. In that sense, gold jewellery is monetary gold in the minds of its owners.

The role of gold and silver as the most common form of money goes back to before Rome’s Laws of the Twelve Tables in 449BC, when according to the juror Gaius Roman coins were first introduced. The Twelve Tables were the foundation of Roman law, consolidating earlier traditions. They were the basis upon which jurors subsequently expanded their interpretations over the centuries. 

With respect to the distinction between money and credit, in the second and third centuries Ulpian and Paulus between them defined where the differences lay. Their juristic findings were incorporated in Justinian’s Pandects in the sixth century. And it was from them that it was made clear that the value of credit was based on money, which was physical gold and silver. Without the value-link to gold or silver, there was no means of valuing credit, and all promises, which are the essence of credit, require to be valued.

That is still the legal position everywhere today. Justinian’s Pandects were published in Latin in 530AD, two centuries after the seat of Roman government had moved to Constantinople. The courts were then exercising Roman law in Latin over a predominantly Greek-speaking population, which was obviously an unsatisfactory situation. Accordingly, Justinian’s Institutes was published ten years later in both Latin and Greek by Theophilus as a textbook guide to the original Pandects, becoming the basis of civil law throughout the Eastern Empire. 

In 892AD, the whole legal system was revised and consolidated under the Basilian dynasty and came to be known as the Basilica, which replaced the Pandects and the Institutes as the law of the Eastern Empire and the legal basis for money and credit as far as the Steppes and even beyond. Justinian’s Roman law in Latin continued to be the basis of legal development in Western Europe. Thus it was, that the European interpretation of Roman law of money and credit spread around the world as Spain, Portugal, Holland, and Britain explored and colonised all the Americas, Africa, India, and even to the far Spice Islands and Australasia in the Pacific.

So far as I’m aware, there have been no attempts to alter the legal status of gold, only a few laws temporarily banning or restricting its use as money. Even though it doesn’t feature as such in modern economies and economics, gold still remains the principal corporeal form of medium of exchange. 

Defining credit

Most people probably think that credit evolved after money in the form of coin, but that is incorrect. Credit existed long before, defined in the value of deliverable goods. A thousand years before Rome’s Twelve Tables, the Phoenicians traded throughout the Mediterranean and even as far as Cornwall, where they procured valuable tin. The Phoenicians would have had the same problems faced by businesses today. In order to undertake their trading ventures, they required credit, because they faced expenses before they returned from their voyages many months later with vendible products.

As Demosthenes, the Greek orator and statesman, contemporary of Philip of Macedonia and his son Alexander at the same time as Rome promulgated the Twelve Tables put it: 

“If you were ignorant of this, that credit is the greatest capital of all towards the acquisition of wealth, you would be utterly ignorant”.[ii]

Perhaps even more so today, we rely on credit for every aspect of our lives. Legal money is hardly ever used — never in the major advanced economies. But even in the past, it was subject to Gresham’s Law, hoarded and not spent.

Credit is synonymous with debt. It’s not just that we have banknotes and token coins (representative credit), and bank accounts (credit whether you are a depositor or borrower). But when you employ a workman, you enter into an obligation to pay him, which is your debt for which he allows you a matching credit until you discharge the obligation with another credit, either in the form of banknotes or a transfer of your credit at a bank to a credit at his bank. Alternatively, you might buy an airline or rail ticket in advance. You pay with your credit at your bank and the airline or rail company credits you with an obligation to provide a service at a future date. If you promise your son that you will pay his university fees and give him an allowance, you are entering into an obligation, the promise of credits to cover his or her future debt obligations for as long as he attends the university. Every transaction, every promise, every guarantee, involves incorporeal credit with matching debt obligations. Demosthenes certainly had a point.

The distinction between corporeal money and incorporeal credit is that the former exists physically, and the latter is always created between consenting parties. The commentators who argue that bank credit should be banned appear to be unaware of the true extent of credit in the economy, and the inequity and futility of banning dealers in credit, which is the function of a commercial bank. Not only would nearly all trade cease, but a police state of the most draconian sort would be required to enforce it. And the monetarists who believe that money supply statistics define all the circulating media when they are just the tip of a far larger credit iceberg are also in error.

But debt and credit must take its value from something. At one level, it takes its value from a promise to deliver something else — a corporeal, immaterial, or other incorporeal property. But that assumes the purchasing power of credit is anchored against something else. In history, the value-anchor was always a corporeal entity such as gold. Instead, today it is anchored to another incorporeal asset — central bank credit, or banknotes. In other words, the entire structure of national credit hinges on the government’s credibility as issuer of currency obligations.

Furthermore, each jurisdiction has credit values which refer to different currencies, diverse incorporeal liabilities in the form of central bank banknotes. A common corporeal gold standard is replaced by potentially incorporeal chaos.

While the potential for chaos in credit values now exists, credit based on government credibility can function for a considerable time. But we must recognise that the politicians have high demands placed upon them which inevitably leads them to debauch the currency as a means of surreptitiously transferring wealth from the citizenry to the government so that it can discharge its obligations. In the last eighty years, they have even made a virtue of it, claiming variously that the quantity of credit should be expanded to stimulate economic activity, to ensure prices rise at a two per cent rate to bring forward consumption, and to artificially cheapen borrowings at the expense of savers. Slowly but surely, the inflationists have descended into the economics of unreason. 

The effect on credit’s purchasing power relative to gold is illustrated in the chart below, which is of the major currencies’ purchasing power relative to gold, since the last vestiges of the link was abandoned by suspending the Bretton Woods agreement.

The dollar has lost 98% of its value relative to gold, and sterling has lost 99%. These currency debasements are measures of the loss of the value of subordinate credit so far under a fiat currency regime. Every transaction, every promise of a transaction, and every commitment to a future transaction has been devalued and will continue to be devalued so long as credit remains detached from corporeal money, which is gold.

The future course of credit values

It is no longer controversial to claim that the issuers of the major currencies have arrived at a crossroads. Having tried to use monetary stimulation on an unprecedented scale to prevent their economies from the adverse consequences of covid lockdowns and then the political decision to isolate Russia from global trade, the general levels of consumer and producer prices have begun to rise sharply. Consequently, interest rates have started to rise with them, threatening to drive the economies of the major currencies into an economic slump.

Now that the purchasing powers of currencies and associated credit are declining at an accelerated rate, interest rates should be allowed to find a level at which confidence in their purchasing power is restored. But that is likely to mean yet higher interest rates, to fully compensate foreign holders of these currencies for both credit risk and loss of purchasing power. We can safely assume, for the moment, that domestic holders of a currency and its dependent credit are less aware of the consequences of debasement than foreign holders who have only a speculative need for it. 

The consequences of higher interest rates will be to increase the liabilities of socialising governments and accelerate the rate of currency debasement. They face debt traps which are now inescapable. The rate of loss of purchasing power for major currencies is bound to accelerate, because dealers in the foreign exchanges have become more aware of the debasement issue, giving them no alternative to retreating into their currencies of account or disposing of foreign currencies for corporeal goods, just to be rid of them. 

Higher interest rates, to protect a currency from selling in the foreign exchanges, are expected to undermine financial asset values and lead to bankruptcies in the non-financial economy as business plans are thrown into chaos. This has now become obvious to everyone with interests in financial markets, which is why domestic investors less sensitive to the currency issue than foreigners, hope that their central bank will follow an alternative course, of cutting interest rates and resuming quantitative easing to stop their economies from entering a recession.

But it is these reflationary policies that led to a widening gulf between corporeal gold and incorporeal credit in the first place. Doubling down on these policies will merely accelerate the collapse in purchasing power for incorporeal currencies. It seems that whatever the policy outcome, whether interest rates are permitted to increase or remain heavily suppressed, residual confidence in the major currencies is about to face a major challenge. 

The solution is now politically impossible

The only solution to prevent fiat currencies from collapsing entirely is to officially recognise and reintroduce gold as money, making it the standard against which all credit is valued. Making the arrangement stick then becomes the issue.

There is no point in simply declaring some sort of link between a currency and gold without reforming the role of central banks and their governments in the economy. Central banks should let markets set interest rates, which both central banks and investors will strongly resist.

As well as monetary policy reform, it has to be decided what fiscal reforms are required and what the limitations on the roles of a government should be. To understand the issues involved requires the entire government establishment to recognise the errors in economic policies which have become received wisdom since the Second World War. Textbooks on Keynesianism, which repeat all the dogmas of John Law, must be destined for the curiosity shop. And those on monetarism, which inappropriately failed to adapt to accommodate the introduction of fiat currencies and detached credit should suffer a similar fate. Governments must understand that meddling in economic matters best left to transacting individuals only guarantees economic decline.

Accordingly, with a return to corporeal money they must introduce legislation to rescind the large majority of welfare obligations. They must get out of the healthcare and education industries, devising alternative arrangements for those genuinely in need. They must rescind regulations instructing how businesses run themselves, and the standards they and their products must comply with. They must reduce their burden on the economy to less than 20% of GDP —10% would be even better. They must not permit budget deficits. They must not permit industrial lobbying. They should restrict their activities to ensuring criminal and civil laws are respected, the latter providing a clear framework for contract law. They must provide national defence. On foreign policies, they should not interfere in other nations’ affairs except to the extent they involve their own national interests. They should remove restrictions on trade… 

The purpose of listing some of the reforms in government and its relationship with the wider economy necessary to ensure that a new gold standard can endure is to illustrate the enormity of the task. No politician has a mandate even to consider moves in the required direction. It involves both the political and permanent establishments relinquishing power. It requires a renewed understanding that the state is the servant of the people, not its master. None of this will happen willingly. This is why every fiat currency, which becomes an increasing source of government finance, eventually collapses. It is the ultimate long cycle of boom and bust.

It’s sliding towards either WW3 or gold

We have seen that before the First World War, the major currencies, principally being the UK pound and the US dollar, were on successful gold standards. The general view in government was that free markets provided improved living standards, and that a government’s role in an economy was a burden upon it which must be kept to a minimum.

Clearly, for the major currencies a willing return to these conditions is practically impossible. But a new threat to the status quo of fiat currencies has arisen from developments in Asia, which as a whole is more dependent on production than purely financial activities. This is in sharp contrast to the US and UK which have become particularly dependent on credit for credit’s sake. 

Under the aegis of Russia and China, the entire Asian continent with the exception of a few allies of the western alliance in South-East Asia is now focused on creating an industrial revolution, replicating the success of nineteenth century Britain. And the planners involved appear to recognise that a sounder money than a fiat dollar must be an integral part of it.

As well as seeking to do away with using the dollar for facilitating currency transactions and pricing commodities and raw materials, these Asian nations appear to be gravitating towards linking their currencies to a corporeal standard. More specifically, Sergey Glazyev, the head of the Eurasian Economic Union considering the matter has been tasked with designing a new currency specifically for the purpose of cross border transactions and for commodity pricing. From an initial concept first made public in April last year, this has been refined to an understanding that the new currency should be linked to gold, basing it on a reversion to the status quo ante.

We cannot know the true level of understanding of monetary affairs in the mind of Mr Glazyev, but both he and President Putin have demonstrated a sound knowledge of the weaknesses of the western alliance’s fiat currencies. In common with China, Russia is now prioritising gold mine output, building her physical reserves to replace fiat currencies made worthless by sanctions. Glazyev is also involved in beefing up Moscow’s gold exchange and Asian central banks are also accumulating gold reserves.

The nations involved are wider than the membership of the EAEU, incorporating the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, and the growing BRICS+. Directly, states governing some 3.8 billion Asians are parties to the SCO, with perhaps a further 1.5 billion in Africa and South America becoming economically dependent or interested as affiliated suppliers. America is now leaning heavily on all nations where they have influence in an attempt to persuade them not to join the Asian hegemons’ sphere of influence. She is also escalating military attacks via NATO through Ukraine on Russia and is now raising the rhetoric level against China over Taiwan and her alleged provision of weapons to Russia. It is a three-pronged attack, threatening to escalate out of control by an increasingly desperate America towards a third world war. 

There is now an urgent need for Russia in particular as well as her close allies, not just to protect their currencies from the fallout of a western alliance currency crisis, but to actively undermine the dollar. The groundwork for this action is being laid down by Glazyev’s plans for a trade settlement currency, which on the information available is almost certainly going to be of credit linked to gold. Furthermore, at the St Petersburg International Economic Forum last June, Putin signalled to attending official government delegations that dollars and euros should be sold, and gold stored in vaults under the control of the western alliance’s central banks should be repatriated. 

Not only have the central banks and governments of the entire EAEU, the SCO, and BRICS+ been put on notice to sell their currency reserves, but they will shortly have available a new trade currency based on gold to replace them. For Russia, the only way to avoid WW3 being nuclear is to fight it on financial grounds.

There are significant advantages to a trade settlement currency based on gold. As to the basic design, I refer the reader to my article dated 23 February for Goldmoney, under the section headed, “The Good”. Some further comments on the currency’s design in the context of credit are appropriate.

Classes of credit will be separated into three distinct categories. There is the high-level credit which only exists between participating national central banks and a new central bank set up specifically for the purpose.  The currency is a liability of the new central bank issued  on a simple formula of 40% backing of physical gold submitted by participating central banks. Participating central banks obtain the new gold currency in proportion to the gold which they individually transfer to the new central bank. And it can be freely redeemed or added to by participating central banks on this formulaic basis. The new currency would be available to replace the foreign currency reserves currently held by participating central banks, which would in large measure become redundant. Doing away with the need to hold significant amounts of dollars or euros addresses the currency sanction threat which Russia experienced this time last year.

The second level of gold-linked credit is between participating central banks and their licenced commercial banks. These would be the gold currency reserves equivalent to the fiat currency bank reserves we are familiar with in today’s monetary systems. The reserve facility would also open the possibility for a national central bank to set reserve levels, should it wish to do so, and to participate in clearing systems, providing credit liquidity should they so desire. 

The third level of credit is that created by commercial banks to facilitate trade settlements and commodity purchases by private sector actors. Commercial banks of all nations can participate should they wish to do so, either by being licenced by a participating central bank, or by holding physical gold to secure its own credit values. In this case, a bank such as JPMorgan would effectively turn their unallocated gold account facility into a deposit account linked to demand for trade finance, instead of being a vehicle predominantly used for financial speculation.

The advantages of this new trade currency system is that it leaves individual central banks to manage their own monetary policies as they see fit. Therefore, it would not require political endorsement. And as I have demonstrated earlier in this article, with the top level of credit being sound, a general expansion of commercial bank credit denominated in the new currency will have little or no effect on price levels. And it is unlikely that it will be made available by commercial banks for financing consumer spending.

The timing of Russia’s escalation of the war against the dollar is likely to be advanced by America’s three-pronged attempts described in the preceding paragraphs. Not only will market pressures on fiat currencies then lead to higher interest rates and bond yields undermining western capital market values, but the announcement of a new trade currency based on corporeal gold is bound to draw unwelcome attention to the weakness of commercial bank credit referring for its value to unstable central bank credit. 

At the last count, foreign ownership of dollars and dollar-denominated financial assets totalled about $30 trillion, somewhat more than the US’s entire GDP. For the eighty-one government delegations attending Putin’s St Petersburg Economic Forum, it will rapidly become a case of sell while they can.

Tyler Durden
Sun, 03/12/2023 – 08:10

France’s First Lady Loses Transgender Lawsuit

France’s First Lady Loses Transgender Lawsuit

Brigitte Macron, the First Lady of France, filed a complaint last year against two women who uploaded a YouTube video titled “Brigitte Macron is a man.” The video alleged that Brigitte had a gender reassignment at 18.

On Wednesday, the French newspaper Le Point reported that Brigitte’s complaint against the two women was “voided” by a Paris Judge. 

In its decision, consulted by AFP, the court declared void the summons issued by Brigitte Macron for invasion of privacy and image rights, considering that the facts she denounced should have been qualified of public defamation.

Brigitte Macron, her brother, and the three children of the First Lady had assigned two women on February 15, 2022, one presenting herself as a “medium,” the other as an “independent journalist.”

They asked the court to condemn these two women to pay them damages for having broadcast on the YouTube channel of the “medium”, on December 10, 2021, “a perfectly eccentric thesis” according to which Brigitte Macron, born Trogneux, does not would never have existed, but that his brother would have taken on this identity after changing sex.

“It is hard to imagine that the First Lady of France, accompanied by the best lawyers, erred in qualifying her complaint as defamation rather than an invasion of privacy. Unless she tries to drop the case as soon as possible and not go any further,” French media outlet Le Média en 4-4-2 wrote. 

Brigitte’s transgender rumor appeared around France’s 2022 presidential elections. Despite the video receiving hundreds of thousands of views and trending on Twitter for days, Emmanuel still pulled off a victory. A more serious accusation is the affair Brigitte had with Emmanuel when she was 39yo, and he was 15yo schoolboy…

Tyler Durden
Sun, 03/12/2023 – 07:35

UK Disinformation Unit Monitored Headmaster Who Questioned COVID-19 Vaccines For Children

UK Disinformation Unit Monitored Headmaster Who Questioned COVID-19 Vaccines For Children

Authored by Owen Evans via The Epoch Times,

A headmaster who questioned the effects of lockdown and masking on children, as well as the mRNA vaccine rollout, was reported to the UK’s terror watchdog and had his social media posts monitored by government disinformation units.

In January, Westminster confirmed that it had monitored lockdown critics including Conservative MPs and journalists on social media platforms via its disinformation units, after documents were obtained by the civil liberties group Big Brother Watch.

Headmaster Mike Fairclough, who has 20 years’ experience in running the state-funded West Rise Junior School for 7- to 11-year-olds in Eastbourne on the south coast, told The Epoch Times that he also had been monitored.

Fairclough was one of the very few voices in education, and the only serving headmaster, to express concerns over the effects of the response to the pandemic on children and the resultant mental health problems.

“My personal belief is that the risks from these vaccines outweigh any possible benefits for a child,” Fairclough told The Epoch Times.

“I have conveyed my opinion using my social media channels, generally by reposting and quoting mainstream media articles which have supported my stance,” he added.

Fairclough said that colleagues within the education sector have remained “publicly silent” on the subject of the vaccines for children and that “there is still an air of fear and caution around even mildly sceptical conversations about it.”

A person using a computer in an undated file photo. (Dominic Lipinski/PA Media)

Counter Disinformation Unit

Fairclough submitted requests for copies of his data held by government disinformation units, which The Epoch Times has seen.

The Counter Disinformation Unit (CDU), part of the Department for Digital, Culture, Media, and Sport (DCMS), leads the UK government’s operational response to “domestic disinformation threats online.”

During the pandemic, the government used different units including the CDU, the Rapid Response Unit, and the Government Information Cell. Each had roles in “tackling harmful narratives online,” and monitoring and flagging “disinformation” content to social media companies.

A government spokesman previously told the Epoch Times that these units used publicly available data, including material shared on social media platforms, to assess UK “disinformation trends and narratives.”

A government spokesperson told Epoch Times by email: “Online disinformation is a serious threat to the UK and public health, which is why during the pandemic we brought together expertise from across government to monitor disinformation about COVID.

“These units monitor publicly available data, including material shared on social media platforms, to assess UK disinformation trends and narratives.

“They do not target individuals or take any action that could impact anyone’s ability to discuss and debate issues freely.”

He added that “they did not target individuals or take any action that could impact anyone’s ability to discuss and debate issues freely.”

One Twitter post was flagged by the CDU in February 2022. Fairclough wrote: “Natural immunity is more powerful than vaccines. Antibodies in un-jabbed Covid survivors are ‘stronger’ over time than in people who’ve had two shots but no infection.”

“Hence no need to vaccinate naturally immune children against Covid-19,” he wrote, adding an article from the Daily Mail that reported on a study that found that people who’ve had COVID-19 but no jabs may have longer-lasting immunity than those who’ve been double-jabbed.

Prevent

Fairclough also said that because of his views, he was reported to the Home Office’s flagship counter-extremism policy Prevent, which aims to identify people at risk of committing terrorist acts.

“Thankfully, I’ve been cleared of all wrong-doing each and every time and therefore continued to campaign,” he said.

The email came from a whistleblower who had raised concerns about Fairclough’s opinions relating to “the anti-government and anti-vaccine messaging” he posted on Facebook and other platforms. It was also sent to Ofsted, the Children’s Commissioner, and the Department of Education’s Counter Terrorism team.

An investigation found “no evidence of Mr Fairclough breaking Headteacher Standards and principles afforded those who hold positions of trust and high standing members of the community.”

There are 362 pupils at West Rise who come mainly from the local council estate, places which are often part of England’s poorest neighbourhoods. The school has a very close connection to nature, with a farm, a forest school, beekeeping sites, and children are taught to use knives and guns and to forage for food.

‘Galloping Authoritarianism’

The Free Speech Union (FSU) told The Epoch Times by email that Fairclough had approached them to discuss legal options.

“The way he’s been treated is a disgrace,” said FSU founder Toby Young.

“Prevent was set up to counter extremism, not to monitor critics of government policy. This episode is typical of the way the state apparatus of counter-extremism, which was originally set up to protect people from terrorists, has been repurposed to suppress domestic dissent,” he said.

“This fundamental shift, with the so-called counter-terrorism experts training their spyglasses away from ISIS training camps and towards domestic citizens like Mike was happening before the pandemic, but has accelerated significantly over the past three years,” he added.

Young said that we “need to urgently address this galloping authoritarianism before Britain descends into an Orwellian dystopia.”

“The real extremists are the officials in shadowy parts of the British state who’ve been so captured by woke ideology they’ve convinced themselves that a schoolteacher who has concerns about forcing children to wear masks in lessons is a threat to national security,” added Young.

Fairclough was suspended from Twitter last year, though he has now been reinstated.

“If you are in fear, and you can’t actually speak out when there are clear harms going on, then they’ve got you,” he said.

“Moving forward, we need to be able to have a culture which celebrates different opinions and which embraces questions about things,” he added.

Tyler Durden
Sun, 03/12/2023 – 07:00

The 10 Rules Of Propaganda

The 10 Rules Of Propaganda

Authored by Brian Maher via DailyReckoning.com,

Lord Arthur Ponsonby was a British diplomat and politician, dates 1871–1946.

This keen and cagey fellow pinpointed 10 rules of propaganda.

They are these:

1. We don’t want war, we are only defending ourselves.

2. The other guy is solely responsible for this war.

3. Our adversary’s leader is evil and looks evil.

4. We are defending a noble purpose, not special interest.

5. The enemy is purposefully causing atrocities; we only commit mistakes.

6. The enemy is using unlawful weapons.

7. We have very little losses, the enemy is losing big.

8. Intellectuals and artists support our cause.

9. Our cause is sacred.

10. Those who doubt our propaganda are traitors.

Just Look at the News

A daily scan of the newswires calls to mind three or more of these propaganda rules. On some days, six or seven. On others still, all 10.

We refer specifically to the conflict presently arage in the eastern European nation of Ukraine.

Let us now consider these rules. We will not take up each of them since some rules relate closely to others. We will instead weld these together. To proceed…

1. We don’t want war, we are only defending ourselves.

2. The other guy is solely responsible for this war.

On how many occasions have you read or heard condemnations of Mr. Putin’s “unprovoked” act of aggression?

To phrase it differently, when has it not been described as unprovoked?

Yet a man can argue very persuasively that Mr. Putin’s war was indeed provoked.

The Russian autocrat warned on several occasions that NATO expansion into Ukraine was a “red line.”

Russia would not abide the NATO dagger pressing against its vitals (parts of Ukraine actually lie east of Moscow).

Yet the NATO alliance had announced its intentions to incorporate Ukraine — despite Vladimir’s moans and grimaces.

de Facto NATO Member

It is true that no formal offer of membership has come. Yet for years the United States and its NATO allies were arming and training Ukrainian forces.

Why do you think these Ukrainian forces have performed so excellently?

Some have in fact referred to Ukraine as a de facto NATO member. It has merely been awaiting the de jure formality of actual membership.

You may argue that Mr. Putin’s invasion was unjustified. You may argue that it was unnecessary. Your editor himself has maintained these very points.

Yet you cannot argue that it was unprovoked.

Putin’s Evil!

3. Our adversary’s leader is evil and looks evil.

9. Our cause is sacred.

Here is a very condensed sample of headlines regarding the blackened state of Mr. Putin’s soul:

“Vladimir Putin — ‘Evil on the Level of Joseph Stalin’”

“Yes, Putin Is Evil”

“Putin Is Evil, Not Mentally Ill, a Psychological Explanation”

“’Terrifying’ Putin Driven by ‘Evil Forces,’ Says ECB’s Christine Lagarde”

“How Vladimir Putin Became Evil”

And is this not the very face of evil?

The title of the magazine article affixed to this caption bears the title:

“The Secret Source of Putin’s Evil”

Now you have the flavor of it. We could continue but mercy forbids it.

Is Putin Really Evil?

Yet how do these demonologists know if the man is evil? Have they looked under the hood… and glanced his soul?

Perhaps the man is psychologically impaired. Perhaps he goes by a different morality. Perhaps he is simply misguided.

Or perhaps he simply believes his nation is under threat and that his invasion is justified.

No — not justified — necessary.

We would not claim that he is an especially congenial fellow. We would not claim that he is “nice.”

But evil? That we are not prepared to say.

Yet we are prepared to say — and will say — that for the past year propaganda has enjoyed a very brisk circulation.

Evil on the level of Joseph Stalin, as the one headline screamed? This is the work of the propagandist.

No Special Interest?

4. We are defending a noble purpose, not special interest.

Defending Ukraine may certainly qualify as a “noble purpose.” We do not contend otherwise.

Yet there are several arms manufacturers who presently drive an excellent trade.

They must replace all the armaments that have been dispatched to — and continue to be dispatched to — Ukraine.

Are they not a special interest?

Meantime, our spies inform us that a disturbing portion of monies parading under the banner of “Ukrainian aid” has been diverted to the pockets of Ukrainian oligarchs.

We would sort these oligarchs into the category of  “special interest.”

“We Don’t Do Those Things”

5. The enemy is purposefully causing atrocities; we only commit mistakes.

We are told that Russia’s calendar of sins is endless. These hellcats are shooting projectiles into apartment buildings, hospitals, schools, churches.

Yet we are likewise told that Russia suffers from an acute ammunition lack. Why would these Russians waste valuable ammunition on these valueless targets?

Perhaps such targets were struck by accident. It is war and incidents as these are nearly inevitable.

Perhaps even Ukrainian forces struck some of these structures unintentionally.

We recall one instance in which a Russian missile struck very near the Polish border, murdering two. As chance would have it the “Russian missile” was an erring Ukrainian air defense missile.

Perhaps Ukrainian forces fired upon Russian forces from these sites. Russians would be justified to return the fire.

Reports of Russian massacring of civilians proliferate widely. Yet closer examination reveals that at least some of these claims are of very dubious validity.

We would be stunned and gobsmacked if atrocities of various sorts have not occurred — perpetrated by both sides.

It is, after all, war. And war is the very negation of civilization.

Yet there is little to no evidence that atrocities are official Russian policy.

That, we hazard to say, is propaganda.

He’s Using Chemical Weapons!

6. The enemy is using unlawful weapons.

“Kyiv Claims Russia Used Banned Chemical Weapon”

“Russia’s Tear Gas Bombings in Ukraine May Be First Step in Dangerous Chemical Escalation”

“Ukraine’s Battlefield Is Haunted by Putin’s Chemical Weapons Legacy”

We assigned our spies the case. They inform us there exists no evidence of Russian chemical weapons use.

Videos have circulated — however — of Ukrainian soldiers preparing chemical weapons for battlefield use. Other videos circulate of Russian soldiers gagging on these chemical agents.

We cannot confirm their trueness.

270,000 Russian Casualties?

7. We have very little losses, the enemy is losing big.

Source after source cites claims of unspeakable Russian deaths and woundings. Figures of 270,000 Russian casualties have been proposed.

Yet the original invasion force consisted only of 190,000 men. Are they all — plus 80,000 others — dead or injured?

The British Broadcasting Corporation decided to so some spade work. They attempted to discern the true number of Russian fatalities. This they did by poring through death notices, funeral announcements, social media and other venues.

What did they discover?

They could only identify the names of 16,071 confirmed Russian fatalities. They concede the possibility that they are undercounting the butcher’s bill by as much as 40%.

In all, BBC places Russia’s total irretrievable losses (wounded, killed or missing people) at some 144,500.

These figures nonetheless place the actual casualty roster — both killings and woundings — far below the mainstream telling.

We are loathe to employ the word “only” when discussing deaths and woundings. It is a morbid affair. Each man is a unique human creature crafted in the image of his creator.

Yet the BBC’s sleuthing indicates strongly that Russian casualty figures are extravagantly exaggerated.

It is in keeping to Propaganda Rule no. 7.

8. Intellectuals and artists support our cause.

How many intellectuals and artists boast Twitter accounts bearing an image of the Ukrainian flag?

They are nearly beyond count.

10. Those who doubt our propaganda are traitors.

Your patriotic editor has been labeled traitorous on many, many occasions — by readers and colleagues alike.

The Propaganda War

Does Russia transmit its own propaganda? We are certain that it does.

Upon reflection we must amend the prior statement — we suspect strongly that Russia transmits its own propaganda. We cannot be certain.

That is because none of it is allowed in. It is all censored out by the Western press. They have erected a great cordon walling off Russian propaganda.

How else does one explain the universal media claims of Ukrainian righteousness and Russian evil? Of Ukrainian brio and Russian incompetence? Of Ukrainian victory and Russian defeat?

We will merely state that we have been privy to… conflicting… reports.

Yet we are aware that by posting the 10 Rules of Propaganda… we will be accused of distributing propaganda — Russian propaganda.

We plead nolo contendere… comrade.

Tyler Durden
Sat, 03/11/2023 – 23:30

Global Air Pollution Ranked By Country

Global Air Pollution Ranked By Country

Global air pollution declined by 31% during the initial COVID-19 lockdowns, demonstrating a link between economic activity and air quality.

As Visual Capitalist’s Jenna Ross details below, this graphic from The Hinrich Foundation, the fourth in a five-part series on the sustainability of trade, explores how air pollution varies by economy. It pulls data from the 2022 Sustainable Trade Index, which The Hinrich Foundation produced in collaboration with the IMD World Competitiveness Center.

What is Air Pollution?

In this dataset, air pollution is measured using fine particulate matter known as PM2.5. These particles are less than 2.5 microns in diameter, which is about 28 times smaller than the diameter of human hair. They are made up of things like combustion particles, compounds, and metals.

Not only does their presence cause the air to become hazy, they also pose the greatest health risk compared with any other pollutant. When they are inhaled into the lungs, they can cause respiratory diseases and even death. In fact, air pollution is one of the world’s leading risk factors for death, and is linked to 12% of deaths globally. 

A Geographic Breakdown of Pollution

Air pollution levels have a wide spectrum around the world. Countries with lower GDP per capita tend to have higher pollution because they have less stringent air quality regulations, congested transportation systems, and rapidly developing industrial sectors. They also prioritize basic necessities such as food and shelter. On the other hand, high income economies can afford cleanup technologies such as filters that trap airborne particles. 

The following table shows how air pollution breaks down for select economies that are covered in the 2022 Sustainable Trade Index. Numbers indicate micrograms of PM2.5 particles per cubic meter, with higher numbers indicating more pollution.

Rank Economy PM2.5 per Cubic Meter Income Level of Economy
1 🇳🇿 New Zealand 6 High
2 🇦🇺 Australia 7 High
3 🇨🇦 Canada 7 High
4 🇺🇸 United States 8 High
5 🇧🇳 Brunei 8 High
6 🇬🇧 United Kingdom 10 High
7 🇷🇺 Russia 12 Medium
8 🇯🇵 Japan 14 High
9 🇵🇬 Papua New Guinea 16 Low
10 🇹🇼 Taiwan 16 High
11 🇲🇾 Malaysia 17 Medium
12 🇵🇭 Philippines 19 Medium
13 🇭🇰 Hong Kong 19 High
14 🇸🇬 Singapore 19 High
15 🇮🇩 Indonesia 20 Medium
16 🇱🇰 Sri Lanka 20 Medium
17 🇲🇽 Mexico 20 Medium
18 🇻🇳 Vietnam 20 Medium
19 🇪🇨 Ecuador 21 Medium
20 🇱🇦 Laos 21 Low
21 🇰🇭 Cambodia 22 Low
22 🇨🇱 Chile 24 Medium
23 🇹🇭 Thailand 27 Medium
24 🇰🇷 South Korea 27 High
25 🇲🇲 Myanmar 30 Low
26 🇵🇪 Peru 31 Medium
27 🇨🇳 China 48 Medium
28 🇧🇩 Bangladesh 64 Low
29 🇵🇰 Pakistan 64 Low
30 🇮🇳 India 83 Low

India has the most polluted air of the economies in the Sustainable Trade Index. As a developing country with a large population, there are multiple contributing factors. For instance, agricultural burning, biomass combustion for cooking, and vehicle emissions all worsen the problem. The country is also the second-largest consumer of coal, and lacks tight emission standards on industries such as metal smelters and oil refineries.

The Philippines has low air pollution relative to its GDP per capita. This could be because 34% of its energy comes from renewable sources. Notably, the Philippines has the third-highest geothermal power capacity in the world. However, the country still faces considerable pollution issues, primarily due to vehicle emissions.

Want more insights into trade sustainability?

Download the 2022 Sustainable Trade Index for free.

New Zealand has the least polluted air of the economies in the index. Its good air quality is thanks in part to its low population density and island geography. The country is also impacted by large scale wind patterns which promote westerly winds and aid in pollutant dispersion. In order to further reduce pollutants, New Zealand is requiring vehicles to meet stricter emission standards.

Economic Activity and Air Pollution

Air pollution has severe consequences for the environment and human health. It is worsened by aggressive industrialization and some commercial activities. In fact, it’s estimated that industry accounts for 12% of PM2.5 particles globally. Industrial dust, energy production, and transportation are also significant contributors.

Of course, air pollution is just one variable that can help determine an economy’s trade sustainability. The Sustainable Trade Index uses a number of other metrics to measure economies’ ability to trade in a way that balances economic growth, societal development, and environmental protection. To learn more, visit the STI landing page where you can download the report for free.

Tyler Durden
Sat, 03/11/2023 – 23:00

Code Red: Downplaying Academic Excellence In Med School Admissions

Code Red: Downplaying Academic Excellence In Med School Admissions

Authored by Charles Lipson via RealClearPolitics.com,

America’s top medical schools, worried they have too few minority students, are doing something about it.

They are lowering academic standards for admission and trying to hide the evidence.

Columbia, Harvard, the University of Chicago, Stanford, Mount Sinai, and the University of Pennsylvania have already done soThe list already tops forty, and more are sure to follow.

Of course, the universities won’t admit what they are doing – and certainly not why. All they will say is that their new standards add “equity” and “lived experience.”

Unfortunately, adding those factors inevitably lessens the weight given to others.

The harsh reality is medical schools are downplaying academic achievement and MCAT scores, which give the best evidence of how well students are prepared for medical school. The MCAT is specifically tailored for that purpose. In addition to a section on critical reasoning (similar to the SATs), it examines students on biology and biochemistry, organic chemistry, the physics of living systems, and the biological and psychological foundations of behavior. It’s easy to see how those relate directly to higher education in medical science. Yet med schools want to downplay them and add inherently subjective criteria like “lived experience.”

Med schools are especially eager to get rid of the MCATs. After years of evaluating admissions folders, they know they cannot meet their goals for minority enrollment if they retain their near-total emphasis on academic qualifications. They know, too, that standardized tests and grades leave a statistical trail. They want to kick dust over that trail before the Supreme Court’s expected ruling against affirmative action. They fear the statistics will show marked differences in admission rates for individuals from different groups who have similar scores and GPAs. That’s not a wild guess. Admission teams know the evidence from years of experience.

But dropping the tests, or making them optional, presents a thorny PR problem. Schools fear they would sink below competitors in national rankings, which include MCAT scores. So, they are doing what undergraduate colleges have already done. They are colluding. By withdrawing jointly from US News and World Report rankings, they hope to soften the blow to each one’s prestige. (It’s an interesting question whether this collusion violates anti-trust laws, as their collusion about scholarship awards did.)

What medical schools call “equity” and “lived experience” are code words for discrimination by racial category. They are using this word fog to cloud over four crucial but uncomfortable facts.

  • First, today’s standardized tests are actually fair and unbiased. Medical schools don’t deny that. They know test makers have spent fortunes over the past half century to scrub their tests of any racial, cultural, or ethnic bias.

  • Second, medical schools aren’t claiming the tests are poor predictors of performance. They can’t.

  • Third, they know criteria like “equity” and “lived experience” are inherently subjective and opaque to outsiders. That’s their magic potion for admissions officers. These education bureaucrats are following the advice Humpty Dumpty gave in “Alice in Wonderland.” Alice asks him, “Must a name mean something?” And Humpty replies, “It means just what I choose it to mean – neither more nor less.” Humpty Dumpty would be enthralled with code words like “lived experience” and “equity.” They mean exactly what Humpty and admissions officers choose them to mean – neither more nor less.

  • Finally, by emphasizing non-academic “experience,” these schools are downplaying the reality that their applicants have already graduated college, most likely as science majors. That academic background is the most important “lived experience” for graduate study in any rigorous field, including medicine.

To implement the bias they prefer and do it secretly, medical schools are counting on public ignorance and apathy. When patients believe any subgroup of doctors has systematically higher or lower qualifications, they will take that into account. They do the same thing in choosing lawyers, dentists, accountants, and other professionals.

That may be unfair to any individual practitioner, but it’s inevitable. That’s because ordinary patients (or consumers) have no direct way of judging professional competence. They can only look for indirect (and imperfect) signs of a good doctor. Did she go to a top medical school, for instance, or practice at a teaching hospital? If they think it is harder for an outstanding Chinese-American undergraduate to gain admittance, they will reasonably guess she’s a better student and a more-qualified doctor. They may be wrong about that particular doctor, but it’s a sensible guess.

There’s a general ­– and inescapable – point here. When admissions, hiring, or promotion are influenced, either positively or negatively, because of group membership, when outsiders know that and cannot measure quality directly, they will see that “group membership” as a telltale sign of ability.

Are There Any Remedies?

When issues are as divisive as admissions bias and racial discrimination, it’s wise to begin with shared values. America needs lots of well-qualified doctors, and getting more from underrepresented groups is a worthy goal. Getting more African American doctors is especially important, both because of our country’s scarred racial history and because younger students need role models from all groups.

At the same time, these would-be physicians should be admitted and trained without any racial, religious, or ethnic bias, without hiding evidence of discrimination, and without using subterfuge to evade the law or public scrutiny.

Nor should medical schools ever require their applicants, as many do, to submit statements saying they adhere to a leftist vision of “diversity, equity, and inclusion” and will implement it as part of their medical education. That’s ideological bullying, and it has no place in education at any level. It should end immediately.

So should racial bias in admissions. There’s a good way to guard against it. No matter how heavily medical schools choose to rely on MCAT scores, they should require them of all applicants. The schools should be required to retain these scores for all applicants, whether they are admitted or rejected, along with all other relevant data about each applicant (after hiding each individual’s name for privacy). Those mandates will leave a clear statistical trail if legal challenges arise later.

Congress could easily pass such a law for schools that receive federal money. It won’t, not as long as Democrats control the Senate and the White House. Neither will like-minded federal bureaucracies. But the roadblocks in Washington shouldn’t prevent state legislatures from undertaking these actions for universities they fund. They can require all applicants to submit MCATs and grades, and they can require universities to retain them.

State legislatures shouldn’t stop there. They should pass similar laws for undergraduate admissions and for all graduate and professional programs, such as law schools, which are moving swiftly to make these tests optional for the same reasons medical schools are dropping them. Again, these mandates would not tell schools how much weight to give test scores or grades. But requiring their submission and retention would leave a clear statistical record, which rejected applicants could use if they believe they faced discrimination. That looming threat would have a bracing effect on university officials.

Second, medical schools should work hard to increase the number of strong minority applicants. One possibility is to launch intensive, one-year programs in the biosciences, aimed at promising college graduates from underrepresented groups (making sure they are consistent with anti-discrimination laws). Students in these enriched programs would be in a far better position to apply successfully to medical schools on a level playing field. Programs like this already exist for college graduates in the humanities and social sciences who later decide to pursue medical careers.

These intensive programs could offer either certificates or degrees (BA or MA), depending on their length and academic level. Some graduates would go on to medical school. Others would be qualified to begin professional positions in the biomedical sciences.

The fundamental problem here is reconciling three laudable goals: increasing the number of minority medical students, keeping academic standards high, and avoiding illegal discrimination.

It’s time to launch intensive programs that make the effort instead of watering down academic standards and pretending no one will notice.

Tyler Durden
Sat, 03/11/2023 – 22:30

How Should Pro-Abortion Activists Respond To State Restrictions? Jane Fonda Says ‘Murder’

How Should Pro-Abortion Activists Respond To State Restrictions? Jane Fonda Says ‘Murder’

Good old Hanoi Jane is at it again.  The pro-communist activist is famous not simply for her anti-war stance (which could be argued as justifiable), but also for actively propagandizing for the North Vietnamese.  Not only that, but she has a rather vicious history of calling for the deaths of people she disagrees with.  Part of her activism in Vietnam included her arguments that American POWs held by the VC be tried and executed for war crimes:

Fast forward decades later and Jane Fonda hasn’t changed; her provocateur methods continue, probably because she has never faced consequences.  While the far-leftist position of The View is no secret, even the regular members of the show had to pull Fonda back from the brink after a discussion on state laws blocking abortion, in which she was asked what could be done other than protest

She responded: “Well, murder…” 

Was it a joke? 

Fonda later apologized for the remarks saying they were made ‘in jest’ and that she was ‘using hyperbole to make a point.’ 

But what was the point? 

What is more likely is that Fonda said the quiet part out loud, the part which leftist activists often discuss on social media but rarely on mainstream television.

Tyler Durden
Sat, 03/11/2023 – 22:00