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America’s Insolvency Is Mandatory

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America’s Insolvency Is Mandatory

Authored by Brian McGlinchey via Stark Realities

In October, the U.S. national debt reached $31 trillion, and the government is projected to wade another trillion dollars into the red in the 2023 fiscal year. The longer-term picture is even gloomier, with the deficit expected to double to $2 trillion by 2030.

Indeed, the longer the horizon, the worse things get. At 98% of Gross Domestic Product, the current national debt is the highest it’s been since just after World War II. On its current course, the debt will soar to 185% of the country’s entire economic output by 2052.

What’s particularly troubling is that the government’s 2022 $1.3 trillion-dollar deficit came at a time of near-record tax intake. At 19.8% of GDP, Uncle Sam’s 2022 tax haul was close to the all-time high of 20.5% set in 1944.

Washington doesn’t have a revenue problem — it has a spending problem.

What few people realize, however, is the extent to which the U.S. government’s disastrous trajectory is on autopilot, thanks to the fact that an ever-larger proportion of federal spending happens without Congressional action.

To understand why, it’s important to first understand that there are two main categories of government spending:

  • Discretionary spending, which requires a vote by Congress as part of the annual appropriations process.

  • Mandatory spending, which is dictated by previously-enacted laws and thus happens without an annual vote in Congress. Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid comprise a big majority of mandatory spending.

Here’s where things have taken an ominous turn. In 1965, mandatory spending accounted for 34% of all federal spending. Today, that share has more than doubled, with mandatory spending representing 71% of federal outlays. With overall spending higher too, mandatory spending is much larger slice of a larger pie.

Via Spending, Taxes & Deficits: A Book of Charts by the Manhattan Institute’s Brian Riedl

As much as it’s right to spotlight wasteful discretionary spending — like a $2.4 million National Science Foundation grant to promote dinosaur enthusiasm or $11.3 million to tell Vietnamese people to stop burning trash — the truth is that the annual budgeting process offers federal legislators a shrinking opportunity to make meaningful fiscal course corrections.

While mandatory spending can be adjusted by passing new laws, there’s a big problem with that: Meaningfully changing the trajectory of mandatory spending requires meaningful adjustments to Social Security and Medicare.

The mere idea arouses indignation among those who’ve been paying taxes into those programs for all their working lives. That’s understandable, since the government fosters the myth that Americans have Social Security and Medicare “accounts.”

However, the truth is that these programs increasingly operate not as savings accounts or insurance plans, but rather as schemes that redistribute money from current workers to retirees. Social Security already dishes out far more in benefits than it takes in via payroll taxes, and Medicare crosses into an annual deficit this fiscal year.

While former Democratic Speaker Tip O’Neill rightly called Social Security the “third rail” of American politics, some Republicans have recently dared to propose touching both it and Medicare.

The Republican Study Committee — a group of House reps — in June of this year floated a budget that suggested:

  • Gradually raising Medicare’s eligibility age to 67 and Social Security’s to 70, and then index both to life expectancy

  • Withholding payments from those who retire early and earn more than a certain amount

  • Reducing Social Security payroll taxes and redirecting them to private alternatives

  • Phasing in means-testing for Medicare

Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) has proposed moving Social Security and Medicare from the mandatory spending category to the discretionary one, so that Congress is compelled to actively monitor and manage the programs — rather than contentedly looking the other way as their mandatory nature digs them deeper into a hole.

As the GOP went out on a political limb, Democrats naturally grabbed their saws. Henry Connelly, a spokesman for Speaker Nancy Pelosi, said “House Republicans are openly threatening to cause an economic catastrophe in order to realize their obsession with slashing Medicare and Social Security.”

The “catastrophe” comment refers to the notion that Republicans may make reform of the programs a condition for raising the federal debt ceiling yet again.

Republicans’ aspirations to reform Social Security and Medicare gave Democrats powerful midterm-election ammunition — with Democrats and allies pushing attack ads portraying the GOP as ruthlessly bent on shrinking the programs, apparently just for the sake of doing so.

President Biden pushed the theme hard down the campaign stretch: “They’re coming after your Social Security and Medicare in a big way,” he warned in stump speeches with congressional candidates.

Without action, however, time is coming for Social Security and Medicare in a big way. Social Security’s trust fund is projected to run out around around 2035. Absent congressional intervention, that will trigger a 20% cut for everyone receiving benefits when the well runs dry. Medicare’s trust fund is projected to vanish in just six years, with less clarity on how shrinking resources will be apportioned.

As close as those two grim milestones are, to politicians of both parties whose principal aim is re-election, they’re critically still more than one election cycle away.

Given that, don’t expect any fruitful action on Social Security or Medicare anytime soon. You can, however, expect that anyone who attempts to tailor the programs to economic reality will be accused of cruel intentions— by disingenuous politicians who portray their own irresponsible inaction as the height of benevolence.

Stark Realities undermines official narratives, demolishes conventional wisdom and exposes fundamental myths across the political spectrum. Read more and subscribe at starkrealities.substack.com

Stark Realities with Brian McGlinchey: Invigoratingly unorthodox perspectives for intellectually honest readers 

Tyler Durden
Sat, 12/03/2022 – 12:30

Over A Dozen Ukrainian Embassies Sent Mail Bombs, Bloody Animal Parts In ‘Terror Campaign’

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Over A Dozen Ukrainian Embassies Sent Mail Bombs, Bloody Animal Parts In ‘Terror Campaign’

Ukraine says its embassies across Europe are coming under attack with a “well-planned campaign of terror” – following last week’s embassy mail bomb incident at the embassy in Madrid, Spain – which injured a worker.

Over the past several days more than a dozen letters containing either explosives or bloody animal parts have been received by Ukrainian embassies or in some cases intercepted before they arrived.

“There have been 17 cases of embassies receiving either letter bombs, false bomb letters, or letters containing animals parts, like the eyes of cows and pigs,” CNN cited Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba as saying. 

Outside the Ukrainian Embassy in Madrid, via PA

The animal eyes are being interpreted as threats of more violence to come targeting Ukrainian diplomatic outposts in the West. In some cases the ambassadors in residence have had their names written on the envelopes. “This campaign is aimed at sowing fear,” Kuleba said.

Though there’s as yet no publicly disclosed evidence presented by authorities as to who is behind the series of letters and mail bombs, Kuleba pointed the finger directly at Moscow in his latest statement, saying, “Maybe this terror response is the Russian answer to the diplomatic horror that we created for Russia on the international arena, and this is how they try to fight back while they are losing the real diplomatic battles one after another.”

So far, “bloody” and threatening packages have been sent to embassies and general consulates in Hungary, Poland, Croatia, Italy, the Czech Republic, and Austria. Vowing not to be intimidated, Kuleba said further, “We have grounds to believe that a well-planned campaign of terror and intimidation of Ukrainian embassies and consulates is underway.”

“We will continue to work effectively for the victory of Ukraine,” he stressed, while also urging foreign governments in Europe to step up round-the-clock protection of its missions in their countries, including security of diplomatic personnel.

Spain especially is on high alert after a mail bomb was days ago even sent to the US Embassy in Madrid. It was reportedly intercepted before it arrived. 

Tyler Durden
Sat, 12/03/2022 – 12:00

Watchdog: No Misconduct In Selection Of Comey, McCabe For Tax Audits By IRS Under Trump Appointee

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Watchdog: No Misconduct In Selection Of Comey, McCabe For Tax Audits By IRS Under Trump Appointee

Authored by Tom Ozimek via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

A government watchdog has found no misconduct in IRS tax audits of former FBI Director James Comey and former acting and deputy FBI Director Andrew McCabe, putting to rest speculation that former President Donald Trump had pulled strings at the agency to target his political foes.

Former FBI Director James Comey (C) talks to reporters following a closed House Judiciary Committee meeting to hear his testimony, on Capitol Hill in Washington on Dec. 7, 2018. (Alex Edelman/AFP/Getty Images)

The Treasury Inspector General for Tax Administration said in a report (pdf) released on Dec. 1 that it had found no evidence that the IRS was in any way manipulated to pick Comey and McCabe for the audits.

Then-Acting FBI Director Andrew McCabe listens during a Senate Intelligence Committee hearing on Capitol Hill in Washington on May 11, 2017. (Jacquelyn Martin/AP Photo)

The watchdog’s review came at the request of members of Congress and former IRS Commissioner Chuck Rettig, a Trump appointee who headed the tax agency at a time when Trump frequently criticized Comey and McCabe for their roles in a probe into Russia’s interference in the 2016 election that later morphed into the so-called “Russian collusion” investigation that Trump and his team denounced as a “witch hunt” meant to hurt him politically.

Neither Comey nor McCabe could be reached for comment on the watchdog’s findings.

Former Federal Bureau of Investigation Director James Comey leaves the Rayburn House Office Building after testifying to the House Judiciary and Oversight and Government Reform committees on Capitol Hill in Washington on Dec. 7, 2018. (Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)

Tax Audits Carried Out ‘Randomly’

The Inspector General’s report found that the audit selection process that saw Comey and McCabe face National Research Program (NRP) audits from the IRS was both random and carried out properly.

“Our assessment of the original sample selection process concluded that the IRS randomly selected TYs [tax years] 2017 and 2019 tax returns for NRP audits,” the report found.

The report also found that the IRS computer programs used to pick people for audits “categorized returns in the correct strata” and “correctly selected tax returns for audit.” The programs also “did not include malicious code that would force the selection of taxpayers” for an audit, the watchdog said.

While the report found no misconduct in the way Comey and McCabe were picked for the audits, it did note some general IRS shortcomings in the way the agency’s computer systems generate random selections, while noting that the watchdog is doing more work to scrutinize that process more deeply.

‘Maybe It’s a Coincidence’

Both Comey and McCabe in the past suggested they should not have been audited and questioned whether they were properly selected for tax-related scrutiny.

“Maybe it’s a coincidence or maybe somebody misused the I.R.S. to get at a political enemy. Given the role Trump wants to continue to play in our country, we should know the answer to that question,” Comey told the New York Times earlier this year.

I think they handled the business OK, the person I dealt with was fine, but the question remains, how was I selected for this?” McCabe told CNN in an interview at the time.

An IRS spokesperson told The Epoch Times in July that there are guardrails in place to prevent the agency from being misused for political ends.

“Audits are handled by career civil servants, and the IRS has strong safeguards in place to protect the exam process—and against politically motivated audits. It’s ludicrous and untrue to suggest that senior IRS officials somehow targeted specific individuals for National Research Program audits,” the spokesperson said.

Trump told the New York Times through a spokesperson at the time, “I have no knowledge of this.”

‘Miniscule Chances’

The New York Times speculated in its report that strings may have been improperly pulled around the audits, claiming there were “minuscule chances” that Comey and McCabe would be picked at random and that their selection poses “extraordinary questions.”

The watchdog’s report appears to put those questions to rest.

The credibility and integrity of the IRS are foundational to the success of our tax administration, and this report alleviates some concerns,” House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Richard Neal (D-Mass.) said in a statement to The Hill. remove

Comey, an Obama appointee, was fired by then-President Trump in May 2017 at the recommendation of the attorney general and deputy attorney general. The officials said Comey was “not able to effectively lead the bureau.”

McCabe, who succeeded Comey, was fired the following year by then-Attorney General Jeff Sessions, a Trump appointee, at the recommendation of the FBI because he lied to the bureau about allowing information to be leaked to a reporter.

Zachary Stieber contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden
Sat, 12/03/2022 – 11:30

MSM Journos Have Meltdown Over Taibbi-Twitter Biden Bombshell

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MSM Journos Have Meltdown Over Taibbi-Twitter Biden Bombshell

On Friday night, veteran journalist Matt Taibbi released the first installment of “The Twitter Files” – evidence of Twitter’s interference in the 2020 US election provided by new owner Elon Musk.

The release details what ZeroHedge readers have known for a long time – that Twitter has been a deeply partisan, narrative-shaping arm of the Democratic party.

Fox News‘ Tucker Carlson summed it up perfectly as ‘The biggest first amendment violation in modern history.’

In response to the bombshell evidence, presented by a veteran journalist engaged in journalism, pundits on the left pounced on Taibbi in comments that will bring shame on their houses for generations.

“Imagine throwing it all away to do PR work for the richest person in the world,” tweeted NBC reporter Ben Collins, adding that it as “Humiliating shit.”

Daily Beast columnist Wajahat Ali, who’s never broken a major story, called Taibbi’s journalism a “sad, disgraceful downfall,” adding “Should be a cautionary tale for everyone. Selling your soul for the richest white nationalist on Earth.”

Once a liar, always a liar, right?

The Bulwark‘s Tim Miller tweeted: “Matt Taibbi is very upset that the Biden campaign asked a platform to take down some revenge porn targeting the candidates son.”

CNN‘s Elle Reeve tweeted: “It’s true: in 2014, I taught Matt Taibbi keyboard shortcuts for copy and paste,” adding “If I had not done that, maybe all this could have been averted. I am deeply sorry.”

And how would these people feel if it was a Don Jr. laptop full of incriminating evidence?

Meanwhile, some responses to the hackery and Twitter’s election interference:

Meanwhile, mainstream outlets have been spinning the release as a ‘rehash’ of things we already knew.

And while Elon Musk insists former Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey has a ‘pure heart,’ he is ultimately responsible for what happened under his watch (and direction?).

The last word goes to Andy Swan:

Tyler Durden
Sat, 12/03/2022 – 11:00

Roubini Warns “The Mother Of All Economic Crises Looms”

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Roubini Warns “The Mother Of All Economic Crises Looms”

Authored by Nouriel Roubini via Project Syndicate,

After years of ultra-loose fiscal, monetary, and credit policies and the onset of major negative supply shocks, stagflationary pressures are now putting the squeeze on a massive mountain of public- and private-sector debt. The mother of all economic crises looms, and there will be little that policymakers can do about it.

The world economy is lurching toward an unprecedented confluence of economic, financial, and debt crises, following the explosion of deficits, borrowing, and leverage in recent decades.

In the private sector, the mountain of debt includes that of households (such as mortgages, credit cards, auto loans, student loans, personal loans), businesses and corporations (bank loans, bond debt, and private debt), and the financial sector (liabilities of bank and nonbank institutions). In the public sector, it includes central, provincial, and local government bonds and other formal liabilities, as well as implicit debts such as unfunded liabilities from pay-as-you-go pension schemes and health-care systems – all of which will continue to grow as societies age.

Just looking at explicit debts, the figures are staggering. Globally, total private- and public-sector debt as a share of GDP rose from 200% in 1999 to 350% in 2021. The ratio is now 420% across advanced economies, and 330% in China. In the United States, it is 420%, which is higher than during the Great Depression and after World War II.

Of course, debt can boost economic activity if borrowers invest in new capital (machinery, homes, public infrastructure) that yields returns higher than the cost of borrowing. But much borrowing goes simply to finance consumption spending above one’s income on a persistent basis – and that is a recipe for bankruptcy. Moreover, investments in “capital” can also be risky, whether the borrower is a household buying a home at an artificially inflated price, a corporation seeking to expand too quickly regardless of returns, or a government that is spending the money on “white elephants” (extravagant but useless infrastructure projects).

Such over-borrowing has been going on for decades, for various reasons. The democratization of finance has allowed income-strapped households to finance consumption with debt. Center-right governments have persistently cut taxes without also cutting spending, while center-left governments have spent generously on social programs that aren’t fully funded with sufficient higher taxes. And tax policies that favor debt over equity, abetted by central banks’ ultra-loose monetary and credit policies, has fueled a spike in borrowing in both the private and public sectors.

Years of quantitative easing (QE) and credit easing kept borrowing costs near zero, and in some cases even negative (as in Europe and Japan until recently). By 2020, negative-yielding dollar-equivalent public debt was $17 trillion, and in some Nordic countries, even mortgages had negative nominal interest rates.

The explosion of unsustainable debt ratios implied that many borrowers – households, corporations, banks, shadow banks, governments, and even entire countries – were insolvent “zombies” that were being propped up by low interest rates (which kept their debt-servicing costs manageable). During both the 2008 global financial crisis and the COVID-19 crisis, many insolvent agents that would have gone bankrupt were rescued by zero- or negative-interest-rate policies, QE, and outright fiscal bailouts.

But now, inflation – fed by the same ultra-loose fiscal, monetary, and credit policies – has ended this financial Dawn of the Dead. With central banks forced to increase interest rates in an effort to restore price stability, zombies are experiencing sharp increases in their debt-servicing costs. For many, this represents a triple whammy, because inflation is also eroding real household income and reducing the value of household assets, such as homes and stocks. The same goes for fragile and over-leveraged corporations, financial institutions, and governments: they face sharply rising borrowing costs, falling incomes and revenues, and declining asset values all at the same time.

Worse, these developments are coinciding with the return of stagflation (high inflation alongside weak growth). The last time advanced economies experienced such conditions was in the 1970s. But at least back then, debt ratios were very low. Today, we are facing the worst aspects of the 1970s (stagflationary shocks) alongside the worst aspects of the global financial crisis. And this time, we cannot simply cut interest rates to stimulate demand.

After all, the global economy is being battered by persistent short- and medium-term negative supply shocks that are reducing growth and increasing prices and production costs. These include the pandemic’s disruptions to the supply of labor and goods; the impact of Russia’s war in Ukraine on commodity prices; China’s increasingly disastrous zero-COVID policy; and a dozen other medium-term shocks – from climate change to geopolitical developments – that will create additional stagflationary pressures.

Unlike in the 2008 financial crisis and the early months of COVID-19, simply bailing out private and public agents with loose macro policies would pour more gasoline on the inflationary fire. That means there will be a hard landing – a deep, protracted recession – on top of a severe financial crisis. As asset bubbles burst, debt-servicing ratios spike, and inflation-adjusted incomes fall across households, corporations, and governments, the economic crisis and the financial crash will feed on each other.

To be sure, advanced economies that borrow in their own currency can use a bout of unexpected inflation to reduce the real value of some nominal long-term fixed-rate debt. With governments unwilling to raise taxes or cut spending to reduce their deficits, central-bank deficit monetization will once again be seen as the path of least resistance. But you cannot fool all of the people all of the time. Once the inflation genie gets out of the bottle – which is what will happen when central banks abandon the fight in the face of the looming economic and financial crash – nominal and real borrowing costs will surge. The mother of all stagflationary debt crises can be postponed, not avoided.

Tyler Durden
Sat, 12/03/2022 – 10:30

Rolex, Patek, And Audemars Piguet Watch Prices Continue Drop As Crypto Winter Worsens

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Rolex, Patek, And Audemars Piguet Watch Prices Continue Drop As Crypto Winter Worsens

Global macroeconomic headwinds increasingly mount, such as high inflation, quantitative tightening by central banks, elevated cross-asset volatility, increasing recession odds, and the Russia-Ukraine war, as the new year quickly approaches. 

A few days ago, we pointed out that the newly minted crypto millionaires who panic-bought luxury vehicles are dumping Mercedes G-Wagons and McLaren supercars as crypto winter worsen with the implosion of FTX. And possibly the selling is spreading to other luxury items such as watches. 

Besides fancy vehicles, fast money bought watches during the pandemic boom, and lots of them. Prices for Rolex, Patek Philippe, and Audemars Piguet soared to astronomical levels, but as stocks, bonds, and crypto entered bear markets earlier this year, these watches began to drop in value. Earlier this year, we pointed out the top in the watch market in a note titled “Investors’ Clock Out’ Of Rolex Bull Market As Demand Cools.” 

Now the Subdial50 index, an index tracking the top 50 most traded second-hand luxury watches on the pre-owned market, is making new lows, and according to Bloomberg, “has fallen to levels not seen since before an unprecedented boom in 2021 and early 2022.” 

The decline shows the most sought-after watches from the top Swiss brands haven’t been able to maintain lofty prices hit during the pandemic when cash-flush consumers stuck at home snapped up Patek Nautilus, Audemars Piguet Royal Oaks and Rolex Daytonas in a frenzied search for the next hot asset class. Dominated by Rolex references including the Daytona ceramic bezel chronograph and GMT Master II, the Subdial50 Index has declined by almost 5% in 12 months and nearly 17% in half a year.

The falling demand coincided with declines in technology stocks and the crash in cryptocurrencies.

Secondary market prices for the Royal Oak “Jumbo” reference 15202 soared above £110,000 ($134,840) at their peak in March, more than doubling over 12 months. Now the watch is trading at around £70,000. -Bloomberg 

Boom/bust chart of the luxury watch market. 

And with the economy headed for more turmoil next year, as Citi chief economist Nathan Sheets warned this week to clients, that could mean watch prices have yet to hit bottom. 

Tyler Durden
Sat, 12/03/2022 – 08:45

The Guardian Could Help Assange By Retracting All The Lies It Published About Him

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The Guardian Could Help Assange By Retracting All The Lies It Published About Him

Authored by Caitlin Johnstone,

The Guardian has joined The New York Times, Le Monde, Der Spiegel and El País in signing a letter from the five papers which collaborated with WikiLeaks twelve years ago in the publication of the Chelsea Manning leaks to call for the Biden administration to drop all charges against Julian Assange. This sudden jolt of mainstream support comes as news breaks that Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has been personally pushing the US government to bring the Assange case to a close.

The Guardian’s participation in this letter is particularly noteworthy, given the leading role that publication has played in manufacturing public support for his persecution in the first place.

If The Guardian really wants to help end the persecution of the heroic WikiLeaks founder, the best way to do that would be to retract those many smears, spin jobs and outright lies, and to formally apologize for publishing them.

This is after all the same Guardian which published the transparently ridiculous and completely invalidated 2018 report that Trump lackey Paul Manafort had met secretly with Assange at the Ecuadorian embassy, not once but multiple times.

Not one shred of evidence has ever been produced to substantiate this claim despite the embassy being one of the most heavily surveilled buildings on the planet at the time, and the Robert Mueller investigation, whose expansive scope would obviously have included such meetings, reported absolutely nothing to corroborate it. It was a bogus story which all accused parties have forcefully denied and no serious person believes is true, yet to this day it still sits on The Guardian’s website without retraction of any kind.

This is the same Guardian which ran an article in 2018 titled “The only barrier to Julian Assange leaving Ecuador’s embassy is pride”, arguing that Assange looked ridiculous for continuing his political asylum in the embassy because “The WikiLeaks founder is unlikely to face prosecution in the US.” The article was authored by the odious James Ball, whose article begins: “According to Debrett’s, the arbiters of etiquette since 1769: ‘Visitors, like fish, stink in three days.’ Given this, it’s difficult to imagine what Ecuador’s London embassy smells like, more than five-and-a-half years after Julian Assange moved himself into the confines of the small flat in Knightsbridge, just across the road from Harrods.”

This is the same Guardian which published an article titled “Definition of paranoia: supporters of Julian Assange”, arguing that Assange defenders are crazy conspiracy theorists for believing the US would try to extradite Assange because “Britain has a notoriously lax extradition treaty with the United States,” because “why would they bother to imprison him when he is making such a good job of discrediting himself?”, and “because there is no extradition request.”

This is the same Guardian which published a ludicrous report about Assange potentially receiving documents as part of a strange Nigel Farage/Donald Trump/Russia conspiracy, a claim based primarily on vague analysis by a single anonymous source described as a “highly placed contact with links to US intelligence”. The same Guardian which has flushed standard journalistic protocol down the toilet by reporting on Assange’s “ties to the Kremlin” (not a thing) without even bothering to use the word “alleged” on more than one occasion. The same Guardian which advanced many more virulent smears as documented in a 2018 article by The Canary titled “Guilty by innuendo: the Guardian campaign against Julian Assange that breaks all the rules.”

Even the wording of the joint letter itself is dishonest when coming from The Guardian.

“This group of editors and publishers, all of whom had worked with Assange, felt the need to publicly criticise his conduct in 2011 when unredacted copies of the cables were released, and some of us are concerned about the allegations in the indictment that he attempted to aid in computer intrusion of a classified database,” the letter reads. “But we come together now to express our grave concerns about the continued prosecution of Julian Assange for obtaining and publishing classified materials.”

As we’ve discussed previously, the narrative that Assange recklessly published unredacted documents in 2011 is itself a dishonest smear, and the unredacted files were actually published elsewhere as the result of a real password being recklessly published in a book by Guardian journalists David Leigh and Luke Harding (the same Luke Harding who co-authored the bogus Manafort-Assange story). Assange took extraordinary measures to try and minimize the damage that was done by those Guardian reporters, but wound up getting thrown under the bus and blamed for their actions anyway.

If The Guardian is sincere in its stated desire to see the end of the persecution of Julian Assange, the single most effective thing it could do to help advance that goal would be to publicly acknowledge that it helped to deceive the world about him, and work to correct the record.

The only reason Assange’s case doesn’t have more support currently is because so much of the public has been deceived into believing that what’s happening is not the unconscionable persecution of a journalist for telling the truth, but rather the righteous prosecution of a sinister Russian agent who has broken laws and endangered lives. The Guardian easily played a larger role in manufacturing that collective misconception than any other single news outlet in the world, and as such it could do tremendous good by retracting and apologizing for its publications which fed into it.

This is the sort of thing a publication would do if it was really interested in truth, justice, and journalistic ethics. Is it what the people who run The Guardian will choose to do? I highly doubt it.

*  *  *

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Tyler Durden
Sat, 12/03/2022 – 08:10

The Favorites To Win The World Cup

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The Favorites To Win The World Cup

With Germany and Belgium already out of the equation before the knockout stage begins, the list of World Cup favorites is only getting shorter.

As Statista’s Martin Armstrong notes, Brazil is at the top bookmakers’ rankings currently.

The five-time winner certainly has the pedigree, and judging by the team’s performance at the group stage (two wins from two games at the time of writing), they are going to be tough to beat.

Infographic: The Favorites to Win the World Cup | Statista

You will find more infographics at Statista

When converting the average odds of multiple bookmakers to implied probability, Brazil is the favorite by a comfortable margin. Neighbors Argentina, despite a rocky start, are considered the second-most likely team to lift the trophy on December 18 – closely followed by France and Spain.

England and Portugal are considered distinctly longer shots at this stage.

Tyler Durden
Sat, 12/03/2022 – 07:35

Europe Shows A Clear Link Between Immigration And Crime

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Europe Shows A Clear Link Between Immigration And Crime

Authored by John R. Lott Jr. & James Varney via RealClear Wire,

Violent crime is becoming common in Sweden, shocking residents of the famously placid Scandinavian nation, where horrific acts of violence have become “all too familiar,” according to Common Sense Media, part of a Swedish nonprofit organization.   

Since 2018, Swedish authorities have recorded an estimated 500 bombings, while what they describe as gang shootings have become increasingly common. The country reported a record 124 homicides in 2020 and many residents were shocked in April when violent riots injured more than 100 police officers.  

But Sweden’s crime spike is not an anomaly in Europe, as homicides have risen during the last decade across the European Union, from Hungary and Germany to Denmark and Finland. An analysis of EU and United Nations crime data by RealClearInvestigations shows that, as in Sweden, the broader crime wave is strongly correlated with immigration. 

“The country-level data for EU countries keeps track of immigration data that allows you to look at many different places over time in a way that we simply aren’t able to do looking across U.S. states,” said Carl Moody, an economics professor at William & Mary College who specializes in criminology. 

Criminal justice experts say that the precision offered by European data may provide guideposts to the United States as it grapples with a host of pathologies ranging from rising violent crime and mass shootings to social disruptions from the coronavirus pandemic. Europe’s experience suggests one avenue of inquiry for policy makers and criminal justice experts is crime directly tied to immigration and drug-trafficking across the porous U.S.-Mexico border.  

Currently, however, crime statistics in the U.S. generally do not allow researchers to make definitive conclusions on how much illegal immigrants may have influenced the rise in violent crime. Because of the political sensitivity of the question, almost no state officials keep track of the immigration status of prisoners in their jails. 

Over the 10 years from 2012 to 2021, about 41 million people immigrated to the European Union, and of those about 3.8 million, over 9%, are estimated to have done so illegally. Sweden’s largely legal influx of newcomers averaged nearly 130,000 a year from 2012 to 2019, before the country began curtailing immigration in 2020. 

Former Swedish Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson has said the country’s growing problems of gangs and violence are due to its failure to integrate foreign-born residents, whose numbers have doubled during the last two decades to about two million people (or almost 20% of the total population). Sweden’s intelligence chief, Linda H. Staaf, told the BBC in 2019 that many of the perpetrators of crime share a similar profile. “They have grown up in Sweden and they are from socio-economically weak groups, socio-economically weak areas, and many are perhaps second- or third-generation immigrants,” she said. 

RCI collected homicide data for the European Union from the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime for 11 years, from 2010 to 2020, and compared it to rising percentages of each country’s foreign-born population. Even after accounting for variations among countries, the data show that each one percentage point increase in immigrant population is associated with a 3.6 percent increase in the homicide rate.  

These results are consistent with other studies in various European countries showing that immigrants – as a group – commit crime at higher rates than the native-born population,” said Tino Sanandaji of the Institute for Economic and Business History Research in Sweden. 

Despite the European Union’s population being over one-third larger than America’s, the estimated 3.8 million illegal entrants over 10 years is less than the estimated 5 million illegal immigrants who have entered the United States since President Biden took office less than two years ago.  

Homicides across the EU rose by about 8% between 2019 and 2020, with Germany and Hungary experiencing 25% increases. Sweden’s rose by 11%. Rising crime emerged as a key political issue there and elsewhere, contributing to September victories in Sweden and Italy by more conservative parties that made crime a key plank in their platforms. 

It remains true that the vast majority of foreign-born residents and their children are not engaged in crime, but the evidence shows many of the victims of crime are also newcomers. In some instances, they have been victimized by native-born residents who resent their presence, and criminologists say this backlash should be classified as immigration-related crime. The violent riots that occurred across Sweden in April, for example, occurred after a Swedish-Danish anti-Islamist and his followers burned the Koran at a rally. 

Rising murder rates in Europe are dwarfed by those in the United States, where cities such as Philadelphia, Chicago, St. Louis, and Los Angeles record hundreds of homicides every year. Homicides in the U.S. are also much more highly concentrated in tiny areas compared with Europe, with over half of U.S. murders occurring in just 2% of its counties. But Europe has long had much higher overall violent crime rates than the U.S.  

European media reports and government spokespeople are often circumspect about the problem. They repeatedly attribute much of the crime to “gangs,” the membership of which is rarely spelled out, and “gun violence” among unlabeled perpetrators.   

Until recently, Sweden’s Crime Prevention Agency had not offered a comprehensive look at the issue since 2005. In October, however, the agency acknowledged that Sweden ranks “very high” in homicides when compared with other European nations, with a murder rate of 4 per million as opposed to the continent’s 1.6 per million.  

In 2020, Swedish sociology professor Göran Adamson published a crime study showing an unmistakable link to immigration. It concluded that from 2002 to 2017, 58% of criminal suspects in Sweden were immigrants. That figure rose for murder, attempted murder, and manslaughter, where immigrants were identified as suspects in 73% of the cases, and robberies, in which immigrants were suspects in 70% of the cases. 

Adamson told RCI that while members of some immigrant groups, such as Vietnamese, were less prone to commit crimes compared with native Swedes, others such as those from the Middle East and Africa – regions that account for most of the immigration to Sweden – were much more likely to do so. Overall, Adamson’s study concluded that Sweden’s murder rate had quadrupled due to immigration. Consequently, he said, he found RCI’s statistical analysis to be “believable.” 

Researchers in Denmark reached similar conclusions about immigration and crime. An index shows that crime in 2020 was 51% higher among male immigrants and 149% higher among male offspring with a non-Western background than among the entire male population.  

In Norway and Finland, too, higher incidence of crime is also found in immigrant populations, according to recent research. Similar data on the citizenship status of people arrested or in jail is rarely collected in the U.S. One state where data is collected, Texas, shows that illegal aliens are convicted of homicide 32% more frequently than the rest of the Texas population. The rate for sexual assault is 91% higher.  

Shootings in Sweden have begun to spill out from Stockholm into smaller cities and towns, although, as in the U.S., they tend to be concentrated in certain neighborhoods. In that sense, immigrants are most often the victims as well as the perpetrators of much of the growing violence. 

“Over the last decades those who commit crimes are increasingly clustered both geographically and socially,” Adamson’s study found. “The risk of ending up a crime victim is getting more and more unevenly distributed.” 

Such findings have percolated through Scandinavian political debates, with candidates on the right making rising crime a centerpiece of their 2022 campaigns. On the progressive left, critics tend to dismiss such statistical studies as “racist.

Swedish officials have sought to deflect attention from the findings, with the Foreign Ministry pointing out in September that most immigrants are not criminals. Yet at the same time they insisted immigrants were not responsible for surging crime reports, they acknowledged non-native born people were suspected of crimes at a rate 2.5 times higher than native-born Swedes.   

Voters have reacted accordingly. Until this year, the Social Democratic Party had dominated politics in Sweden, ruling for almost a half a century, from 1932 to 1976, and holding power again from 2014 to 2022. 

But it was toppled in September, when voters elected a right-of-center coalition made up of the right-wing Sweden Democrats and other right-of-center parties. Ulf Kristersson, the leader of the Moderate Party, was named prime minister on October 17. 

In his study, Adamson urged Swedes to take a clear-eyed approach to what is happening, arguing that viewing things through a politically sensitive, multicultural lens clouds the picture and undermines policy approaches that could address the problem. 

“Social democratic views of the 1960s are now considered far right-wing – a psychological trauma as if straight out of an Ingmar Bergman movie,” Adamson wrote, adding that “anti-intellectualism has defined Swedish migration discourse for decades.”

Tyler Durden
Sat, 12/03/2022 – 07:00

Why China Sucks: It’s A Beta-Test For The New World Order

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Why China Sucks: It’s A Beta-Test For The New World Order

Authored by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.us,

For over a decade there has been an open globalist obsession with the Chinese governmental model – A love affair, if you will. Many top proponents of global centralization including Henry Kissinger and George Soros have praised China in the past and hinted that the communist country is burgeoning into a major player within the New World Order. Soros expressed this exact sentiment way back in 2009, around the time that China began courting the IMF and issuing trillions in Yuan based treasury debt in order to join their global currency initiative.

Several years later, China was inducted into the IMF’s Special Drawing Rights basket. The CCP now avidly supports the creation of a new global currency system with the IMF in control.

This is a reality I have been writing about for many years: China does NOT stand in opposition to global centralization under the control of western oligarchs. All they want is a prominent seat at the table when the “Great Reset” kicks off and total centralization begins. But the above information only suggests an economic relationship between China and the globalists. Does the alliance go even further than that?

Recently, Klaus Schwab of the World Economic Forum gave an interview to the Chinese government controlled CGTN at the APEC Summit. In that interview, Schwab praises China as a role model for many other nations. This might shock some people considering China’s economy is faltering, with their global exports plunging in 2022 and their housing market in shambles. This decline is in large part due to global stagflation, but also due to their insane “zero covid” policy which has kept the nation under pandemic lockdown for years.

Remember all those covid cultists who were cheering for China last year? Remember when they claimed that China was a perfect example on why lockdowns are necessary and proof that they work? Yeah, those people were morons.

China’s economy is now in freefall with their manufacturing base under extreme stress from the mandates. Furthermore, it would appear that the Chinese populace is finally fed up with the draconian conditions and are rising up in revolt.

In the video below, protests erupt at Foxconn’s flagship iPhone plant in China after workers marched out of the factory. They had been held there in quarantine against their will with poor working conditions and little food.

The Chinese government sent hazmat clad troops to put down the rebellion while stomping protesters into the ground. Take note and remember this video when you hear about Apple’s hostility to Elon Musk’s free speech policies on Twitter – Apple loves authoritarianism, as do all globalist run corporations.

China continues to terrorize the citizenry with secret police visits to vocal dissenters and fleets of drones hovering above city streets monitoring foot traffic and blaring propaganda messages. Some drones even spray unknown chemicals across entire city blocks. In the meantime, China has fully implemented digital vaccine passports systems tied to public venues and retail stores. You cannot function in a major Chinese city without an up-to-date vaccine passport or a negative covid test taken every couple of weeks.

All of these events and conditions are often treated as disconnected or coincidentally associated. No one is asking the right questions. The big question being WHY? Why is the Chinese government sabotaging its own economy with lockdowns and oppressing the population to the point of open revolt (a rarity among the normally subservient Chinese people). Why keep the lockdowns going when it is clear to the rest of the world that the pandemic is over and that the lockdowns and masks never worked to begin with?

I would ask CCP officials a simple question that many of us in America also asked our own government a over a year ago: If the vaccines work, why enforce mandates and lockdowns? If it’s because the vaccines don’t work, then why try to force the population to take the jab? Beyond that, if the masks and lockdowns work, then why is China facing yet another supposed covid infection wave?

Obviously the CCP does not care about the well being of the average Chinese citizen. There is no logic to anything they are doing, just as there was no logic to anything Biden, Fauci and the CDC were doing in the US. The difference is, Americans were able to force the globalists in the US to abandon their mandate agenda, likely because we are heavily armed and they realized too many of us were non-compliant. In China, there is no civilian militia equivalent.

The country was a dystopia before, now it is something different – It is an experiment in technocratic tyranny that is being taken to the extreme. China is willing to starve, arrest, beat and even kill people who they claim they are trying to protect from the virus.

It is no mistake that nearly every policy China is implementing is a direct copy of policies suggested by the WEF and institutions like the Imperial College of London back in 2020 at the start of the outbreak. The globalists argued that “we are not going back to normal” and that the public would have to sacrifice many of our freedoms in order to stop the pandemic. In reality, none of their policies were effective in stopping the spread, but they were very effective at suppressing the populace. And in the case of China, nothing did ever go back to normal.

The unspoken rationale, in my view, connects directly back to China’s long term relationship to the globalists and their desire to be a part of the New World Order, also referred to as the “multipolar world order”, the 4th Industrial Revolution, the Great Reset and a dozen other names. If you want to know the real globalist vision for the future, take a look at China today and then multiply the pain and suffering another hundred fold. China is a beta test.

Perhaps it’s a test to see what level of tyranny people are willing to endure. Maybe a test of the functionality of different surveillance systems and control mechanisms. Maybe a practice run for the inevitable riots and rebellion that would occur in numerous countries and the best way to deal with them. Globalists like Klaus Schwab are not only interest in China as an economic role model, he sees China as a societal role model for much of the west, with some tweaks here and there.

The problem for the establishment is that if there are visible examples of freedom despite covid, then other nations will start to question the necessity of their own lockdowns. Even the Chinese people are starting to fight back. They can’t implement their NWO one country at a time, they will have to oppress many countries at once.

As I have been saying for the past year to some of the more nihilistic people in the liberty movement who think all it lost, understand that you are lucky to be living in the US right now and you should be thankful for the millions of conservatives that actively and vocally refused to comply with the mandates and vaccines. They saved the country from greater tyranny. If the globalists had got what they really wanted, we would look a lot like China right now.

We hovered close to that black sun and danced with the devil, but we are not beaten.

As it stands, China continues to represent a model of authoritarian dreams; a research study in mass psychological torture. Far from being a counter-point to the globalists, it is actually a globalist work in progress. Watch what happens there closely, because the evils perpetrated there will eventually be attempted here at home.

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Tyler Durden
Fri, 12/02/2022 – 23:55