By George Lei, Bloomberg Markets Live strategist and reporter

China’s 5% growth target may appear underwhelming to some, though it is very much in-line with shifting market expectations since last week’s blowout PMI. The modest objective leaves room for upside growth surprises and bodes well for Chinese equities overall, though Hong Kong stocks are likely to keep outperforming their onshore peers.

The 5% goal was below the 5.3% consensus in a Bloomberg survey, as well as the 5.5% objective for 2022 and also targets set by most provinces. Conservative as it is, the number won’t necessarily lead to a weak outcome, according to Citigroup, which noted that as recently as 2021 China managed to grow 8.1% versus a 6% target.

The ongoing Congress in Beijing leaves one thing perfectly clear, though: There will be no major stimulus on either fiscal or monetary fronts. The strength of China’s reopening exceeded the expectations of top leaders, who will be more restrained in rolling out new stimulus, Bloomberg reported last week. Now that the 5% target is in place, Citigroup believes any positive data surprises may “limit the extent of downward move” in market interest rates.

What does that mean for equities? As my colleague Sofia Horta e Costa noted, Hong Kong has so far been home to the reopening trade for investors who believe the post-Covid economy is already doing well. Onshore equities, on the contrary, are the stimulus play for those who expect Beijing to deliver more fiscal spending or PBOC liquidity.

The reopening trade has beaten stimulus bets handily since the end of October when chatter of exiting Covid Zero began to pick up steam. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng China Enterprise Index has rallied more than 40% over the period, while the onshore benchmark CSI 300 advanced less than half of that. The gap will probably persist, or even widen, in the foreseeable future.

China’s reopening is likely to be more V-shaped than consensus expectations, with substantial excess savings likely to support consumption, according to a March 6 research report from Morgan Stanley, which expects equities in North Asia ex-Japan to continually outperform as is “typical in the early phases of a bull market.”

Authored by Katabella Roberts via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

A Minnesota judge has ruled that biological men who identify as women can compete against natural-born women in USA Powerlifting (USAPL) following a discrimination case against the organization.

In his ruling (pdf), District Judge Patrick Diamond said that the national powerlifting organization must “cease and desist from all unfair discriminatory practices” after finding that it had engaged in unfair discriminatory practices by denying transgender weightlifter JayCee Cooper “the full and equal enjoyment of public accommodation because of sexual orientation.”

Cooper, who was born a male, filed a complaint with the Minnesota Department of Human Rights in 2019 alleging that the organization had violated the state’s Human Rights Act after Cooper was banned from competing in the women’s division.

Cooper then filed a lawsuit against USA Powerlifting in state court in 2021 alleging claims of sex and sexual orientation discrimination under the Minnesota Human Rights Act (MHRA) against USAPL and Powerlifting Minnesota.

The lawsuit, which was filed through the Minnesota-based advocacy group Gender Justice, also alleged that Powerlifting Minnesota had aided and abetted sex and sexual orientation discrimination under the MHRA.

Cooper Was ‘Separated, Segregated’

Lawyers for the weightlifter said in the lawsuit (pdf) that Cooper began powerlifting in 2018 and “fell in love with the sport.”

“Ms. Cooper sees powerlifting as a way to find strength within herself and has found a home in the community of strong supportive women who come together around a shared love of sport,” the lawyers wrote.

It goes on to note that Cooper had been training to compete in the USAPL Minnesota State Bench Press Championship and the Minnesota Women’s State Championship in January and February 2019, respectively, but in December 2018, USAPL sent an email to the weightlifter, stating that Cooper could not compete because of Cooper’s transgender identity.

“USAPL then revoked her competition card, which means that she was not eligible to compete in future USAPL events,” the lawsuit states, referring to Cooper. “USAPL MN then went on to hold both championship events, at which all transgender women athletes were prohibited from competing.”

Diamond ultimately agreed with Cooper’s attorneys.

“By denying Cooper the right to participate in the female category, the category consistent with her self-identification, USAPL denied her the full and equal enjoyment of the services, support, and facilities USAPL offered its members,” Diamond wrote in his ruling. “It separated Cooper and segregated her and, in doing so, failed to fully perform the contractual obligations it agreed to when it accepted Cooper’s money and issued Cooper a membership card.”

The judge also noted in his 46-page ruling that “the harm is in making a person pretend to be something different, the implicit message being that who they are is less than.”

“That is the very essence of separation and segregation, and it is what the MHRA prohibits,” the judge wrote. He also cited the “increased risk of depression and suicide, lack of access to coaching and practice facilities, or other performance suppression common to transgender persons,” as competitive disadvantages for transgender competitors.

USA Powerlifting Must Revise Policy

USAPL had argued that allowing male-to-female transgender athletes to compete against women was against company policy and that Cooper would have a competitive advantage over natural-born women.

In 2021, USAPL established an MX category, which is open to cisgender men and women as well as transgender men and women.

Judge Diamond ordered that USAPL submit a revised policy to remedy three specific areas of discrimination within 14 days and to comply with the revised policy thereafter.

A trial on possible damages has been set for May 1.

In a statement to Minneapolis NBC affiliate KARE-TV after the ruling, Cooper called the decision a “win.”

“After years of experiencing discrimination from USA Powerlifting, and the backlash that has occurred due to that, of course I have complex feelings about the sport,” Cooper said. “But I think that this win – [it] is a representation of where we can move forward.”

‘We Respectfully Disagree’

Separately, USA Powerlifting President Larry Maile told the KARE-TV it is considering appealing the decision.

“Our position has been aimed at balancing the needs of cis- and transgender women, whose capacities differ significantly in purely strength sports,” Maile said. “We have received a summary judgment decision from the Court finding us liable for discrimination. We respectfully disagree with the Court’s conclusions. We are considering all of our options, including appeal.”

The Epoch Times has contacted USA Powerlifting for comment.

The latest ruling comes shortly after 22 Republican senators, including Sens. Tommy Tuberville (R-Ala.), Mike Crapo (R-Idaho), and Mike Lee (R-Utah), reintroduced a bill aimed at protecting female athletes and ensuring fairness and safety in women’s sports at educational institutions across the United States.

Known as the “Protection of Women and Girls in Sports Act,” the bill would preserve Title IX protections for female athletes, which ban discrimination on the basis of sex in sports programs and require all educational institutions in the country to reward male and female athletes equally.

That bill would counteract the Biden administration’s expected plans to finalize rules in May that would force institutions to allow biological males to share women-only spaces and compete in women’s sports.

A sheriff’s office in Oregon reported a man was stranded in Willamette National Forest due to heavy snowfall. He was stuck on a stretch of roadway with no cellphone service and decided to use his drone to call for help. 

In a Facebook post, the Lane County Sheriff’s Search and Rescue detailed the man attached his smartphone to a drone. He typed out a message to a friend. When he hit send, he launched the drone hundreds of feet into the air. After several tries, the phone connected to a nearby cell tower, and the message was sent. 

“The increased elevation allowed his phone to connect to a tower and send the message, which resulted in our teams being deployed and assisting him out of his situation,” the search and rescue team wrote.

Here’s more on the out-of-the-box, or rather over-the-box, thinking that saved this man’s life. 

Recently Lane County Sheriff’s Search and Rescue responded to an all-too-familiar mission, but with a unique twist.

A motorist had attempted to traverse a remote road in the U.S. Forest Service – Willamette National Forest that is not maintained for winter travel. His vehicle became stuck in the snow and he did not have cell service to call for help (cell reception is very limited in many forested areas of Lane County). Making his situation worse, his family was out of the country and nobody knew where he had gone or to call for help if he didn’t make it home.

Regardless of the circumstances leading to his situation, once stranded this person made several smart decisions. First, he stayed with his vehicle. Rarely does anyone in Oregon die from exposure waiting in their vehicle to be found and rescued, but we have unfortunately seen many poor outcomes from those who chose to walk away. Second, he used some ingenuity to find a way to call for help. The man had a drone with him and attached his cell phone to the drone. He then typed a text message to a trusted person describing his situation and exact location, hit send, and launched the drone several hundred feet into the air. The increased elevation allowed his phone to connect to a tower and send the message, which resulted in our teams being deployed and assisting him out of his situation.

While our teams were rescuing this person, another motorist who had also been stranded nearby in the snow for multiple days was located and rescued.

We are happy with the outcome of this call for service, and impressed with the creatively displayed to call for help, but we would like to take this opportunity to ask everyone to help us spread some important winter travel safety messages:

1) Forest Roads are not maintained for winter travel. Any attempt to travel on unmaintained snow or ice covered roads (no matter how much or little) should only be made with a group of well-equipped vehicles. If one vehicle becomes stuck, the other vehicles can attempt to free the stuck vehicle or can turn around and be used to drive everyone back to safety.

2) Always tell a responsible person EXACTLY where you are going, and when you expect to be back. Do not deviate from this plan. If a road becomes unpassable, turn around and go back the way you came, do not attempt a detour without first updating your plan with your emergency contact.

3) Of the dozens of missions we have had this winter involving a vehicle stuck in the snow, nearly all of them were 4×4 vehicles and almost all of the drivers told us “I didn’t think I would get stuck.” Instead of asking yourself whether you think you can get through a section of road, ask yourself “What will happen if I do get stuck?” If you (and the group of other vehicles you are traveling with) are not prepared to deal with any of the possible outcomes from an attempt, turn around and go back the way you came.

Full story here.

Authored by Allen Stein via The Epoch Times,

Set against a rocky slope, Fortitude Ranch resembles almost any other desert grange scattered along the barren highway in northwestern Nevada, far from any city or town.

On this 174-acre privately owned spread are free-roaming cattle, pens for raising sheep and chickens, a main house, and other living quarters under construction.

The ranch has good soil for growing crops, fruit-bearing trees, natural springs for gardening and livestock, and austere, rolling mountains on either side of the highway for cover.

Here, the resemblance ends.

The new Viking Lodge survival shelter is a work in progress at Fortitude Ranch Nevada on March 2, 2023. (Allan Stein/The Epoch Times)

Fortitude Ranch is anything but your typical farmstead. Its founder, Drew Miller, said its purpose is to ensure the safety of its inhabitants during a societal disintegration.

“Our design is to survive any collapse,” Miller said.

“We define a collapse as no functioning economy and widespread loss of law and order.”

It could take any form: a bird flu pandemic with heavy casualties, an economic depression, a world war, or global famine resulting in civil unrest and death.

A Question of Survival

During such a scenario, Miller said, “some people will just stay at home and starve to death.”

Others won’t go quietly into the twilight of civilization.

“A lot of people will say, ‘You know what? I will go out and steal food from my neighbor and do what I can to keep my family alive.”

A view of the desert scape from the windows of survival housing under construction at Fortitude Ranch Nevada on March 2, 2023. (Allan Stein/The Epoch Times)

Miller said this group poses a significant risk to the prepared.

Today, only some people feel the urgency to stock up against these terrifying scenarios or even think about them, said Miller, who started building survival ranches in 2012 as the need became more apparent.

Back then, the notion of preparing for a collapse of civil society still carried the stigma of tin foil hats and conspiracy theories.

The television series “Doomsday Preppers” further tarnished the image of “preppers” for years.

Miller, a former U.S. Air Force colonel, said a decade ago, people either smirked or turned away whenever he mentioned prepping.

That was then.

After the COVID-19 lockdowns and urban riots of 2020, the power substation attacks of 2022, the possibility of looming war with Russia—and China—and toxic chemical spills in 2023, hardly anyone is smirking now.

“People get it now. There’s much more recognition that you need to prepare for the fragile electric grid. For the avian flu contagion—and bad people,” Miller said.

Jason, a carpenter at Fortitude Ranch Nevada, works on a section of a new section of survival shelters on March 2, 2023. (Allan Stein/The Epoch Times)

“We tell our members there’s a chance a collapse could be something they haven’t even considered.”

The company lists 50 known triggers for a societal collapse on its website, taking each one seriously as its likelihood increases with each passing year.

Miller said the probability of an unexpected “black swan” event occurring this year is anywhere from 1 and 21 percent based on current trends and models.

Network of Like-Minded Survivors

The purpose of Fortitude Ranch is to meet the challenge through a network of survival communities with close to 500 members across the United States.

Miller sees it as a work in progress with five discreet corporate locations and a sixth survival ranch franchise.

He envisions as many as 100 nationwide franchises to keep pace with the demand.

From a survival standpoint, Fortitude Ranch is less costly than going alone, Miller said, because “you’ve got a survival community to share the cost.”

“We’ve got the staff. We’ve got the facilities. When our members show up in a collapse, all they have to do is follow directions.”

However, Fortitude Ranch is not geared toward the well-to-do. Its target membership is the middle class.

Ranch manager Brandon M stands in front of the new survival shelter lodge at Fortitude Ranch Nevada on March 2, 2023. (Allan Stein/The Epoch Times)

While yearly dues are low (about $1,000 per person), amenities are substantial and guaranteed to ride out the collapse in comfort and safety, Miller said.

“We are affordable because of large numbers of members and economies of scale. Fortitude Ranch is attractive to join because it is a recreation/vacation facility as well,” according to the company’s website.

Each ranch setup has a basic fortified shelter design that varies by location.

There are log-cabin-style living quarters and below-ground configurations made with corrugated steel, including shared spaces, quarantine buildings, recreational areas, and guard posts.

The simplicity of each location’s design is the key to its efficiency, Miller said.

“That’s why we formed Fortitude Ranch. Our system is for the middle class. We have plywood bunk beds in some of the rooms. It’s not fancy. We’ve got some nice digs, but many of our rooms are called Spartan rooms.”

“We don’t give out our locations because it upsets our members,” Miller told The Epoch Times, but “if you’re alive in a collapse, they will find you. You cannot hide. You’ve got to be able to protect yourself.”

Buckets of long-term survival food are stacked against the basement wall at Fortitude Ranch Nevada on March 2, 2023. (Allan Stein/The Epoch Times)

The rule is safety in numbers and armed security around the clock. When it’s time to “bug out,” members will arrive with extra food, guns, and ammunition.

“Hopefully before the collapse occurs—if the collapse occurs—we tell them don’t wait for a warning,” Miller said. “If you can’t contact us—that’s a good clue.”

At Fortitude Ranch in Nevada, Brandon M said the facility has everything an individual or family would need to survive following a general collapse.

“We’ve got over a year’s worth of food for more members than we have,” Brandon said. “That gives us time to have our agriculture and crops in place. We’ve also got our livestock.”

The ranch, built in 2020, is operational with solar and gas-powered generators for off-grid living. Brandon is the full-time manager, and Heather is his new assistant. Jason is a carpenter, helping construct the new Viking Lodge overlooking the ranch.

“I’ve been to some of the ranches. [Fortitude Ranch Nevada] is probably my favorite from a strategic standpoint,” Brandon said. “You have a lot of high points, but you don’t have a lot of trees, which can be a disadvantage as far as not having wood. The advantage is to see who’s coming at you.”

Ranch manager Brandon M stands in the middle of a new room under construction at Fortitude Ranch Nevada on March 2, 2023. (Allan Stein/The Epoch Times)

Brandon, now retired from the military, said the political climate in America has become more unstable and divided.

“I was looking to find a place with like-minded [people]. I realized I couldn’t do it alone,” he said.

After a decade serving in the Air Force, Heather said she found Fortitude Ranch online and applied for a job. She’s been out here for about three weeks and has enjoyed her experience.

“I like this because it’s more realistic. I don’t know if you even think about luxuries—water, food, and shelter. Those are the priorities. I think everybody should be concerned [about a societal collapse]. Not like fear—just aware,” Heather said.

The new Viking Lodge features a pair of log cabins joined with a corrugated steel enclosure to provide even more living space when complete. The ranch also has a small medical clinic, a workshop, and a practice firing range.

“We’re still building. We’re always building as we keep adding members,” Brandon told The Epoch Times. “Once we finish the Viking Lodge, we could easily have 200 [people].”

“Like right now, I’m working on rooms for paid members. It was just me out here for a long time, so it was slow. I don’t mind it; I like the isolation. You can’t just run to the store and grab some cough medicine.”

Fortitude Ranch Nevada manager Brandon M demonstrates a ham radio on March 2, 2023. (Allan Stein/The Epoch Times)

Brandon said Fortitude Ranch offers good protection against thieves and roaming bands of marauders. Given its remote location, finding the ranch wouldn’t be easy for the hungry and desperate following a collapse in the city.

“Being this far out here, nobody will want to waste calories walking and not even knowing what you’ll find,” Brandon said. “North of us, there isn’t anything for 30 miles.”

The ranch currently has more than 50 members, and everyone will have a job to do when they arrive, as determined by their skill set.

Brandon said two members are medical professionals. There are engineers and teachers as well.

One member is a culinary chef. The oldest member is 90.

“We’ve got big families, small families, individuals—all kinds of political backgrounds. Right and left. You’d think it would be all right [leaning]. We do have some [left-leaning] people. We’re getting more and more,” Brandon said.

“It’s like any other community. When civilization started, people had to come together in some way. It comes down to this: are the things that unite you stronger than those that divide you?

The medical clinic is fully stocked at Fortitude Ranch Nevada on March 2, 2023. (Allan Stein/The Epoch Times)

The medical clinic at Fortitude Ranch Nevada includes a single bed on March 2, 2023. (Allan Stein/The Epoch Times)

The nearest town is about a half-hour drive south. Brandon said some people suspected a nearby survival community whenever he shops for supplies. They’ll spot him at the supermarket, loading 20 bags of beans and 20 bags of rice into a cart.

Sometimes, they’ll ask him questions.

“I’ll make a joke. I don’t talk about what we are or where we are. They think you’re from a restaurant,” Brandon said.

Rebuilding Society

In the main house at Fortitude Ranch are furnished rooms with beds, fresh linen, and other amenities. The ranch guarantees a daily minimum of 2,000 calories for one year for each member.

However, some members prefer to stock their own food for long-term storage.

Brandon said members are serious about their preparations as national and global tensions worsen.

“A lot of them will come out here and store stuff. They’re constantly asking me how we are doing, where are we at.”

Fortitude Ranch Nevada manager Brandon M enters the work shed where gardening supplies are kept on March 2, 2023. (Allan Stein/The Epoch Times)

Members receive a monthly online newsletter to stay informed. So when the critical moment arrives, they will know what to do.

“It’s just about bringing communities back to what they once were,” Jason told The Epoch Times. “We’re trying to get people to work together in an environment to sustain themselves from anything.

“The template was there back in the day. It’s a winning model that works for everybody.”

Believing “history repeats itself” and collapse is inevitable, Jason said the sooner members work as a community, the sooner they can help to rebuild society.

“We’ve seen this before, and we’ll see it again. The probability of biological attacks is the norm right now,” Jason said.

Brandon said the collapse of society would look different than what people expect or imagine.

“You saw the rioting with [Hurricane] Katrina. This time will be on a much bigger scale.”

A barren lake bed stretches for miles on the way to Fortitude Ranch Nevada. Below, manager Brandon M walks along the dirt road to the main ranch house on March 2, 2023. (Allan Stein/The Epoch Times)

“It’s going to suck,” Brandon said, as people long to go back to life before the collapse.

“When we get knocked back into the Stone Age, you’re going to have a lot of unhappy people,” he said.

Jason added, “People will get caught where they don’t want to be. That’s the beauty of being a member [of Fortitude Ranch].”

Living Large Post-Apocalypse

Located in central Kansas, Survival Condos is a former missile silo turned into a luxury survival shelter on the higher end of the affordability spectrum.

Developer Larry Hall considers the project life-affirming in a world gone further off the deep end.

“For me, I took an intercontinental ballistic missile site that used to have a weapon of mass destruction designed to kill hundreds of thousands of people. I turned it into the complete opposite,” Hall said.

“It’s now a green facility, state-of-art technology that protects families.”

Fortitude Ranch Nevada is located in a remote northwestern part of the state, far from any city or town on March 2, 2023. (Allan Stein/The Epoch Times)

He admits the condos are expensive. A 3,600-square-foot Penthouse unit starts at $4.5 million. A full-floor unit measuring 1,840 square feet costs $3 million, and a half-floor condo runs about $1.5 million.

“People buy what they can afford and what they perceive they need protection from,” Hall told The Epoch Times.

“I decided there was a missing niche market in the luxury high-end bunker where people didn’t know how long they’d need a bunker.”

Hall said before COVID-19, people used to scoff at survival shelters as a fringe market demographic.

The question was always, “What are the chances of society collapsing?”

Then came the lockdowns, the urban riots, and the general chaos in 2020.

Hall said the events of the past three years have only vindicated the preparedness mindset. Survival Condo is now considered the “Gold Standard” for survival shelters.

Raising sheep is one of the main activities at Fortitude Ranch Nevada on March 2, 2023. (Allan Stein/The Epoch Times)

“I never get asked that question [will society collapse] anymore,” Hall said. “You’ve pretty much become mainstream. People realize the value of having a hardened property to go to and that extra degree of safety.”

He said Survival Condo’s purpose is to make sure that clients will survive the collapse and thrive in the process.

To that end, Survival Condo hired a psychologist to aid in the project design for extended off-grid living. The psychologist looked at basic human physical and emotional needs—from the need for optimum lighting and color schemes to foster a positive mood, better food quality to improve personal satisfaction, and recreational activities to keep tenants happy and fit.

“The single thing you need to have to keep people from going stir crazy—what people call cabin fever—is to have a good quality of food,” Hall said.

The original complex held 72 silos. Hall bought two silos with options to purchase another four, built out the first silo, and is working on completing the second.

An aerial view of the dome as it is built over the existing missile silo at Survival Condo in central Kansas. (Courtesy of Survival Condo)

The finished silo is 15 stories tall and built with a military-grade redundant air filtration system to handle nuclear, chemical, and biological attacks. The facility has redundant power sources and more than 20,000 square feet of floor space under the dome.

Each fully furnished condo unit has a biometric key entry. Other high-end amenities include a custom theater, bar and lounge, a library, indoor swimming pool and spa, workout facility, command and control center, hydroponic gardens, a medical first-aid clinic, a digital weather station, and homeschooling classrooms.

Hall said there’s a long waiting list for units when they become available.

“Ours is way up at the top for a reason—military-grade everything with high engineering,” Hall said. “The book has done everything with very tough standards.”

“We’re constantly keeping the place in a state of readiness. We could scale it up if we needed to be here for an extended time.”

The interior floor plan for Survival Condo, a former intercontinental ballistic missile silo turned condominium in central Kansas. (Courtesy of Survival Condo)

That time now appears close as the Doomsday Clock of the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists stands 90 seconds away from midnight.

Whether a natural or man-made disaster is on the horizon—”pick a poison,” Hall said. “All result in one common denominator, and that’s civil unrest.

“People are afraid and trying to get by and survive. So, ultimately, you need something where you can sleep with both eyes closed and don’t have to worry about a gang of MS-13 guys kicking in your door.”

“The whole thing is you have a place designed to protect families,” Hall said. “We’ve got a facility that can do that. We’re not out to muck with anybody. We want to be out of sight and mind, do our best to survive, not burden society, and take care of ourselves.”

Miller, at Fortitude Ranch, said the demand for survival ranch franchises has been growing exponentially.

“We’re going like mad now through franchising. We’ll double our number of locations this year. It could take off even more,” Miller said.

A furnished condominium at Survival Condo in central Kansas. (Courtesy of Survival Condo)

But even with 100 new franchise locations, “that’s still a tiny percentage of the population,” he said. “We’re not even close to handling 1 percent of the population.”

Miller said people owe it to themselves and the future to survive the coming collapse as the opportunities to rebuild will be “phenomenal.”

“I hope the United States will recover and follow the Constitution. We don’t follow it today,” Miller said.

Could the automobile love affair at Morgan Stanley be shifting?

Analyst Adam Jonas, long known for his affection of Tesla and Elon Musk, has penned a note to start this week introducing Ferrari as a top pick by the firm, which has raised its price target on the company to $310 from $280.

Jonas has an overweight rating on the name and called the company “the most defensive name in his coverage” that avoids much of the “EV hype and EV risk”, according to a Monday morning Bloomberg wrap-up.

“We believe RACE is the best positioned company in our coverage in a highly uncertain macroeconomic and geopolitical tape. In addition to its strong fundamentals, we believe RACE has levers to pull for both growth or downside protection, within a wide dispersion of macro outcomes,” Jonas and peers wrote in their note.

“Ferrari has built its moat on scarcity, desirability, and brand values around performance (“driving thrills”) and luxury which is the key driver for continued demand. These factors make it hard for a competitor to replicate the Ferrari model overnight. In our view, buying a Ferrari today is not so much about ‘the sound of the engine’ or the ‘performance’ in and of itself,” it continues.

“Rather, we think it is a totality of factors that drive customers to want the elements that a Ferrari possesses: scarcity, desirability, connotations of luxury and performance (stemming from Formula 1 racing pedigree),and exquisite Italian design and engineering. The brand and scarcity drive unprecedented demand for the vehicles, which Ferrari is able to leverage with tight supply control.”

Jonas also likes that Ferrari has the longest order backlog, greatest earnings visibility and highest pricing power of any of the companies he covers, the Bloomberg note also said. 

Long-term opportunities, a predictable business model and a “near unmatched brand and market moat” were cited as additional factors for the believe in Ferrari. 

Jonas wrote: “We believe investors over-estimate the risk of EVs to Ferrari and misprice the inherent opportunity in EVs coupled with continuing the ICE business on an exclusive basis with price points for ICE approaching $1mn/unit.” 

“The key concern we field from investors on RACE is the shift to EVs. Although the shift away from the ICE engine which has been at the heart of RACE’s brand since inception presents a profound shift in Ferrari’s powertrain technology, it need not threaten the company’s DNA. We believe the engine is only part of the reason why Ferrari has been able to create one the strongest brands in the world,” it reads. 

The firm also didn’t seem to see risks of Ferrari shifting their model to EV from traditional ICE, concluding that Ferrari “can offer an EV that will be just as high in demand as what investors are used to from ICE.”

Broadly, however, Jonas is getting more cautious about the sector in general, citing the “rebound in equity prices and continuing signs of unaffordability and auto credit pressure”. 

Submitted by Blue Apples

Since late January when a fatal shooting between Atlanta-area police and ANTIFA-affiliated broke out, Georgia’s capital has become ground zero of the continually fomenting hostilities from the radical leftist group. The tenuous situation saw that violence continue at the site of the Atlanta Public Safety Training Center. Under the pretense of a “mostly peaceful protest,” rioters unleashed their fury by destroying construction equipment at the site of where Georgia State Patrol Troopers had exchanged gunfire with protesters occupying the site in late January. The latest ANTIFA insurgency resulted in the arrest of 23 people on domestic terrorism charges.

One arrest in particular particularly sticks out. Thomas Webb Jurgens was one of the 23 arrested on Sunday according to DeKalb County arrest records. Jurgens arrest is notable because he is a staff attorney at the Decatur, Georgia office of the Southern Povery Law Center. Ironically, the SPLC have cultivated a partnership with state and federal law enforcement across the United States to designate and investigate extremists groups like those engaged in domestic terrorism across the country. Now, they are in a position where it’s difficult to unequivocally deny the criticism levied against them that their own members qualify to be designated among those ranks.

One of the Antifa members arrested on domestic terrorism charges in Atlanta last night is a staff attorney with the Southern Poverty Law Center.

The FBI has historically used the SPLC as a source for who should be considered domestic terrorists. pic.twitter.com/y5isk5AHaq

— Greg Price (@greg_price11) March 6, 2023

According to Jurgens LinkedIn page, he joined the SPLC in September 2021 as a new hire to its Economic Justice Project. He presently is admitted to both the Georgia and Florida state bar associations. Jurgens had graduated with his Juris Doctor from the University of Georgia School of Law, the campus of which is located in Athens, Georgia. The campus is just 60 miles from Atlanta where he was arrested.

The Atlanta Police department detailed how the events leading to Jurgens arrest unfolded. Those arrested initially convened under the cover of gathering for a protest before events turned violent. “They changed into black clothing and entered the construction area and began to throw large rocks, bricks, Molotov cocktails, and fireworks at police officers.” according to Atlanta police who responded to the scene of the crimes. Footage released by the police department shows approximately 150 masked rioters breaking into the construction site. 35 were detained in total, with 23 already being charged and the potential charges looming for the remaining 12.

CONSTRUCTION SITE BURNS: Huge plumes of smoke and massive police response after @defendATLforest / #StopCopCity protesters face off with police at the site of Atlanta’s future Public Safety Training Facility. I’m told Molotov cocktails were thrown. Construction equipment is on… https://t.co/6dIyrPff6T pic.twitter.com/0F9qj8dgFn

— Billy Heath III (@BillyHeathFOX5) March 5, 2023

Fortunately, unlike the police engagement in January, the events from Sunday evening went without any serious injuries or fatalities. No indication that any of the arrested ANTIFA supporters were armed with a firearm has arisen yet either. Despite that outcomes, Atlanta police aren’t viewing that good fortune as an auspice of what lies ahead. Officials cataloged Sunday night’s arrests as a catalyst for reactionary violence in the coming days. Police department officials forewarned “with protests planned for the coming days, the Atlanta Police Department, in collaboration with law enforcement partners, have a multi-layered strategy that includes reaction and arrest.”

Following violence during the “Night of Rage” ANTIFA organized in response to January’s shooting, Georgia Governor Brian P. Kemp issued a response indicating that state prosecutors would execute a new strategy to prosecuted rioters under domestic terrorism charges. Kemp’s Attorney General, Chris Carr announced his office’s intention to continue to pursue sweeping indictments against ANTIFA members for domestic terrorism continuing to riot. Carr also took the media to task for categorizing ANTIFA members as protesters. The arrest of 23 more ANTIFA rioters, including the SPLC’s Thomas Jurgens, conveys the commitment to a concerted effort between Georgia’s law enforcement and attorney general’s office to prosecute rioters to the furthest extent of the law.

The SPLC could not be reached for comment and has released no official statement regarding Jurgens arrest. In addition to domestic terrorism charges, Jurgens faces potential discipline from the bar associations he is admitted to in Georgia and Florida which could result in the loss of his license to practice law. The revelation of his arrest should also be cause for law enforcement officials around the country to reassess their working relationship with the SPLC. If Jurgens arrest says anything about the non-profit, it’s that their offices are a place where hate groups are apparently being cultivated instead of persecuted.

Authored by Tom Luongo via Gold, Goats, ‘n Guns blog,

And the Fed has won. In the words of Ambassador Kosh from the classic television series Babylon 5, “The avalanche has started. It is too late for the pebbles to vote.”

For nearly the past two years I’ve been a nearly lone voice in the wilderness questioning the financial orthodoxy over the behavior of the Federal Reserve. It started with an innocent, if not openly naïve question back in June of 2021, “Could the Fed actually be getting off the globalist train?”

When I asked that question it was just days after musing to my Patrons on the eve of the June 16th, 2021 FOMC meeting that the Fed would have to step in and defend the US dollar. The dollar’s weakness during the Trump presidency couldn’t last forever. Even then I didn’t have a good answer as to how they would do it.

I just knew, intuitively, that they had to.

Back then there was no indication that the Fed was ready to begin raising rates. But by raising the Reverse Repo payout rate 0.05% above the Fed Funds Rate the Fed started the avalanche of US dollar strength that has persisted through to today.

And the pebbles screaming, “Pivot!” have been consistently overrun by the reversal of flow of US dollars from overseas back home, now getting extinguished at an unprecedented rate.

It was that extreme response by the market to the RRP rate that led to my asking that question. Nothing more, nothing less.

The implications of that question were far reaching. It led to a whole series of questions as to the knock-on effects. I wrote about some of these in the days after the Geneva summit where President “Biden” and Vladimir Putin hashed out a ceasefire over Ukraine. In that article I didn’t get everything right, but the main point, that the Fed was no longer willing to go along with the destruction of the private formation of capital, has more than held true.

Here’s the most important point:

The Fed is now ready, I think, to go to war with Davos over the future of money and they aren’t ready to hand over the keys to the candy store to a bunch of European commies, at least while also cutting Wall St. out completely of the New World Order…

…The plan {Davos’} is pretty obvious at this point: hand over the keys to capital formation to the central banks and destroy all risk assessment. Commercial banks aren’t needed.  Only socially acceptable projects going forward will get funded. This is what Christine Lagarde wants with her new all-European Green Stock Exchange she introduced at Ankara last week.

But what’s clear to me now is that Davos went for the boob too fast on Prom Night at the Eschaton.  It’s too much, too soon and the acceleration is exposing its flanks.  Why would China and the U.S. go to war over COVID-19 and trade issues when they are being manipulated into it by a bunch of feckless Eurocrats with delusions of adequacy?

It was the possibility that the Fed, who ultimately answers to US commercial banking interests, is pursuing its own agenda that I explored in a recent podcast with Danielle Dimartino Booth, hoping to get her perspective on this widened lens of Fed policy rather than just focusing on inflation. In my opinion, Danielle more than delivered.

One of the biggest complaints about the Fed’s policies since the 2008 financial crisis has been that it has acted as the Central Bank of the World, rather than the Central Bank of the US. What I find hilarious, honestly, if not a little pathetic, is that the moment the Fed starts acting like a domestic central bank, the wailing and gnashing of teeth comes from all corners.

I expect that from globalists and vultures who love taking the Fed’s zero-cost dollars and levering them up to feather their own nests to build their own private empires in the shadow banking system. I didn’t expect that from the alternative economics space, however.

It’s like the Fed had just become everyone’s punching bag and that was that.

Ok, rant off. Back to the avalanche at hand.

Think back to 2021, or even the beginning of 2022, and remember that no one could even conceive of where we’d be today – the Fed Funds Rate at 4.75%, likely going to 5% in less than two weeks, and the term structure of dollar futures markets reluctantly admitting to a terminal rate between 5.50% and 5.75%.

I argued strenuously that in order for FOMC Chair Jerome Powell to make this new sovereign US monetary policy stick, he would have to ‘pull a Volcker’ and raise rates aggressively. This would expose the lies of the “Biden” administration about deflation and the need for trillions more in COVID-19 relief funds — the Build Back Better bill.

It would uncover who on Capitol Hill was aligned with the Fed and the New York Banks it represents, or, at least, who had their backing — Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ) and Joe Manchin (D_WV) — and who was actively working against them. — Joe Biden, Federal Reserve Vice-Chair Lael Brainard, the Democratic Party and most of the Republican Party and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.

Even as I was making these arguments I never thought Powell would actually do it.

Then he did it.

And here we are today (well, March 3rd’s closing).

When I say markets reluctantly acceded to the Fed’s program I mean that just one month ago these curves were all signaling a Fed “Pivot” at 5% and that it would happen in June. Now the Fed Funds Futures is essentially flat at 5.45% until December.

But these curves are highlighting for me exactly what I’ve been preaching for the past two years. The Fed, through aggressive rate hikes and fundamental changes to its transmission of monetary policy, has placed the biggest burden on on US dollar markets overseas, not domestically.

Moreover, every major shift in policy, the statements coming from Powell, and the upcoming changes to US dollar markets themselves have supported this idea.

All of this was taking place against a gradual change in the foundation of US dollar markets phased in over a five-year period; the shift from LIBOR as the debt-indexing rate in US dollars globally to SOFR.

As of today there are three major futures markets to coordinate the supply of US dollars through time, the Eurodollar, the Fed Funds, and now SOFR.

But all of these ultimately were subservient to LIBOR because that’s where the overnight money markets took their cues directly from. The futures markets reacted to the LIBOR call out.

Remember in January 2022, the penultimate phase of SOFR’s replacement for LIBOR took place. That was when all new US debt had to reference SOFR as the baseline rate, rather than LIBOR. LIBOR was ending in June 30th, 2023.

Keep that date in mind. Because it looms large over everything currently happening.

Go back to what I’ve been saying for over a year, the Fed is not raising rates to combat inflation.

The Fed is raising rates to drain offshore dollar markets and force the offshore dollar trade to take its cues from the domestic cost of dollars as priced by SOFR, not LIBOR.

If you still haven’t been convinced of this argument, fair cop, but then why is the Eurodollar futures curve, at the first sign of bond markets finally believing the Fed is serious about not “pivoting,” trading significantly above both the Fed Funds and the SOFR futures markets? (see graph of yield curves above).

The spread being positive (26 basis points positive!) means the demand for US dollars overseas is far greater than the demand for them domestically. That spread is the pain threshold not for the Fed but for, primarily, the ECB and the Bank of England.

As much as we would like to blame the Fed for everything happening, creating scapegoats are simply a coping mechanism for being unable or unwilling to reconcile what is happening versus what we would like to see happen.

They are a reflection of our anxiety about that which we can’t control. And you can argue that I’ve done that with my incessant invoking the Davos bogeyman lurking behind the scenes, and, again, fair enough.

But that’s why we go deeper and ask the questions necessary to map out where everyone’s incentives are and how they would react to specific pressures changes in policy or personnel.

Bye Bye Eurodollars, Hello SOFR

Two years ago the idea that SOFR would successfully replace Eurodollars as the global market yield curve for US dollars was laughable. When SOFR was introduced in 2017 it was phased in with a five-year rollout plan, culminating in January 2022’s mandate. SOFR was the indexing rate of the US and that was that.

In December of 2021 SOFR futures traded around 290,000 contracts per day. By this report by IFR going from numbers from the CME, volume surged to 964,000 contracts.

Average daily volumes in SOFR futures reached 964,000 contracts in the two weeks ending February 4, according to derivatives exchange CME Group, up from about 290,000 in December and more than five times higher than their September level.

That was last year, less than a month before Powell began squeezing the Eurodollar markets to death.

Oh, but wait there’s more from Feb 2022:

But SOFR futures have also closed the gap this year to Eurodollar futures, the Libor-linked contracts that have long been a mainstay of rates trading markets and that SOFR futures are set to supplant altogether from the middle of 2023. SOFR futures volumes as a share of Eurodollar contracts have reached as high as 37% this month, compared with an average of 10% in the final quarter of 2021.

“There’s been a significant change in behaviour over the last few months and we’re now seeing exponential growth in SOFR futures activity. Records are being broken almost daily,” said Mark Rogerson, head of interest rate products for EMEA at CME Group.

“We thought there’d be an acceleration moving into 2022 when the regulatory guidance provided a catalyst. We’re now at a point where we’ve achieved critical mass in SOFR futures: liquidity is more than sufficient for almost all customers’ needs.”

Still not convinced? Why would you be, a year ago SOFR was doing 37% of the mighty Eurodollar’s business. Then let’s flash forward to February of this year with a press release from the CME itself.

 CME Group, the world’s leading derivatives marketplace, today announced new milestones in the growth of its SOFR derivatives contracts, with a single-day record of 7,558,467 SOFR futures and options traded and record open interest (OI) of 35,698,298 contracts on January 12…

…In the first two weeks of January 2023, the average daily volume (ADV) of SOFR futures and options traded reached 4,674,007 contracts. Month-to-date January 2023 SOFR futures ADV is equivalent to 572% of Eurodollar futures ADV and SOFR options ADV is equivalent to 1,334% of Eurodollar options ADV.

Ooops.

If this was a prize fight they would have called it on a technical knockout two rounds ago.

Oh, but wait, they already did. You see, this is why I sandbagged you for this entire article. One, because I’m an asshole and two, because so are the guys running the CME.

The CME announced back in October that it was suspending trading in its former champion Eurodollar Futures and Options on Futures contracts dated after (wait for it) June 30th, 2023. The last day of trading will be April 14th. For a little more fun you can check out the CME’s daily SOFR Futures report.

I think that avalanche is now so loud it could be heard from space. Poor pebbles.

SOFR knocked out the Eurodollar because that was the Fed’s and New York’s ultimate goal; to replace the global rate for dollars with a domestic one where the capital would have to trade here.

The globe takes its cues, not from what Europe or Hong Kong wants, but what America needs.

This stabilizes our banking system, taking back power the Fed had ceded under Greenspan, Bernanke and Yellen and reminding everyone else just who runs Bartertown.

Most importantly, it pulls liquidity from around the world back into US markets, providing a foundation for a future where Davos doesn’t control DC. There are further implications of this but I’ll leave that for Part II.

The question I leave you with is the following, “Is there another, bigger avalanche further up the mountain?”

*  *  *

Join my Patreon if you don’t want to be a pebble.

Over the past year, 18 US states have officially ended pandemic-era states of emergency – including the covid food benefit, while a December mandate from Congress will end aid in March for the other 32 states, along with the District of Columbia, the US Virgin Islands and Guam.

The collective return to pre-pandemic policies includes enhanced unemployment benefits and child tax credits, as well as a rollback adjustment to Medicaid that boosted enrollment.

Now, people are waiting up to nine hours in mile-long lines for free food – some of whom say they can only afford to eat once per day, while others say they limit expensive food items such as meat for specific family members, such as growing teenage boys.

“I thought, ‘Wow, the government is trying to kill us now,” said 63-year-old Danny Blair of Kentucky. Blair, who lives in a mobile home with his wife, survives on his Social Security disability check, the Washington Post reports.

“They are going to starve us out,” Blair continued, apparently unaware that government assistance provided during the pandemic wasn’t permanent.

As the Post frames it, the pullback of pandemic-related aid could pose a setback to the Biden administration’s efforts to ‘slash poverty’ while building a ‘healthier and more sustainable middle class’ – none of which were the stated goals of the temporary aid.

“We saw positive benefits from this and less hardship, including for families with children,” said Dottie Rosenbaum, a senior fellow at the nonpartisan Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, who points out that all the free money helped reduce childhood poverty rates in 2021. “We can expect that to reverse now.”

Following the reduction in benefits, the average SNAP recipient’s benefits are expected to drop by around $90 per month, according to the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities. That said, an even greater reduction is in store for seniors and the working poor who receive assistance from other government programs, and will likely qualify for less.

In Kentucky, many seniors on food stamps saw their monthly benefit drop from $281 to $22 last year after the state ended the pandemic emergency in May, according to local food bank network, Feeding Kentucky.

Other states are preparing for the same

“We are bracing, and our agencies, member food banks, food pantries and soup kitchens are not prepared for what is about to hit them,” Said Ohio Association of Foodbanks executive director, Lisa Hamler-Fugitt. “This reduction, and end of the public health emergency, could not be coming at a worse time.”

Even before the benefits retired this month in Ohio, Hamler-Fugitt said demand at food banks soared last year as retail food prices rose by 11.4 percent nationwide, more than five times the historical annual average. She said Ohio charities and foodbanks served 3.1 million people in the last quarter of 2022, which she called a record and about 600,000 more than were served during the same period in 2021.

Now, Hamler-Fugitt expects many of the state’s 1.5 million recipients will also be scrambling to find food assistance, adding she projects the benefit reductions will remove $120 million from Ohio’s retail economy each month. -WaPo

“We estimate we would have to increase our distribution by 15 times to even begin to address this, and we don’t have the resources to do that,” said Hamler-Fugitt. “So hunger rates are going to increase among our seniors, and families, and our children are going to fall behind academically because they are not going to be able to concentrate on empty stomachs.”

Is this practical?

In Kentucky, GOP lawmaker Sen. Donald Douglas said during debates that it wasn’t practical to live “under a constant state of emergency.”

“Let’s ask yourself, should SNAP benefits be a way of life?” he asked. “Now we know it is for some. Should it be a way of life for adults?“

Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Sunday slammed International Atomic Energy Association (IAEA) chief Rafael Grossi for saying attacks on nuclear facilities are “outlawed.”

Israel has a history of launching covert attacks against Iranian nuclear facilities, and Netanyahu has been threatening to take more overt action. US officials have also said President Biden will keep a military option on the table to prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon even though the Pentagon and CIA recently acknowledged Tehran is not seeking a bomb.

Grossi just returned from a visit to Iran, where he secured a pledge for the IAEA to receive more access to Iranian nuclear facilities. When asked about the US and Israeli threats, Grossi said that “any military attack on a nuclear facility is outlawed, is out of the normative structures that we all abide by.”

Netanyahu called the remarks “unworthy” in comments at a cabinet meeting. “Rafael Grossi is a worthy person who made an unworthy remark,” Netanyahu said, and questioned:

“Outlawed by what law? Is Iran, which publicly calls for our extermination, allowed to protect its weapons of destruction that will slaughter us?”

Often missing from the conversation about Iran’s nuclear program is the fact that Israel has a secret nuclear arsenal that is not subject to any inspections. The US doesn’t acknowledge the existence of Israel’s arsenal and doesn’t pressure Israel to sign the Non-Proliferation Treaty.

Netanyahu’s threats against Iran have increased in recent weeks, and the US has made clear it has Israel’s back. Tom Nides, the US ambassador to Israel, said in February that Israel “can and should do whatever they need” against Iran and that the US has “got their back.”

“#Iran claimed the pro­duc­tion of the 84% en­riched ma­te­r­ial was ac­ci­den­tal, but se­nior diplo­mats…have said it could have been the re­sult of ex­per­i­ments aimed at paving the way to pro­duce weapons-grade en­riched ura­nium.” https://t.co/q0agzAHXLX

— Jason Brodsky (@JasonMBrodsky) March 4, 2023

The comments came a few weeks after an Israeli drone attack hit a facility in the Iranian city of Isfahan.

Taiwan’s president Tsai Ing-wen has convinced House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) to downgrade a planned trip to Taipei, and instead meet in California in order to avoid an ‘aggressive Chinese military response,’ the Financial Times reports.

According to several people familiar with the situation, Tsai and McCarthy agreed to downgrade the visit because of Taiwanese security concerns, as tensions run high between Beijing and Washington. The move is a backtrack for McCarthy, who said last summer that he would visit Taiwan if elected Speaker of the House.

The venue change comes as the US steps up contingency planning for the region — one of the world’s most dangerous flashpoints — and highlights the impact of China’s military posturing to constrain Taiwan and undermine its de facto independence.

Washington has been rife with speculation about whether McCarthy would visit Taipei. Advocates of a trip say senior US lawmakers should show support for the country in the face of rising Chinese aggression, while critics argue that high-profile visits provoke China without helping Taiwan. -FT

According to a senior Taiwanese official, McCarthy’s team was provided with “some intelligence about what the Chinese Communist party is recently up to and the kinds of threats they pose,” adding that China is “not in a good situation.”

In August, former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) sparked China’s fury after visiting Taiwan – the first such trip by a US Speaker in 25 years. In response, the CCP held giant military exercises which included the firing of ballistic missiles over the country for the first time in history.

“There might be policies even more irrational than in the past emanating from Beijing,” said the Taiwanese official to FT. “If we can try to control this together, the risks it brings for everybody can be contained better.”

US officials have recently played down suggestions of an imminent Chinese attack on Taiwan, but the Biden administration is stepping up contingency planning with allies.

President Joe Biden has on four occasions over the past four years said the US would intervene if China launched an unprovoked attack on Taiwan. -FT

According to McCarthy, Taiwan’s concerns over a provocation were “reasonable.”

“This will accomplish McCarthy’s objective of elevating the issue and demonstrating he is willing to meet her, but the nature of the meeting physically happening in the US instead of Taiwan will also make it more difficult for Beijing to respond in the same provocative way like they did after the Pelosi visit,” said Eric Sayers, an Asia expert at the American Enterprise Institute.

On Monday, Taiwanese defense minister Chiu Kuo-cheng warned that the PLA was “looking for pretexts like foreign senior officials visiting or us conducting military exchanges with other countries” in order to take more aggressive action.