Authored by Connor Freeman via The Libertarian Institute, 

Washington and NATO have rapidly escalated their war with Russia. The White House appears to have blown up the Nord Stream pipelines in a blatant act of war against Russia, not to mention Germany and other European allies.The CIA is reportedly conducting sabotage attacks on Russian infrastructure and the Pentagon has tacitly endorsed Kiev’s drone strikes hundreds of miles deep inside the Russian mainland.

Along with an assortment of NATO commandos, U.S. troops, CIA, and Special Operations forces are on the ground in Ukraine as well. The White House has greenlit the transfer of Bradley armored fighting vehicles, longer range rockets, and M1 Abrams battle tanks to the battlefield.

Kiev is demanding hundreds of tanks. Concurrently, multiple European NATO members are sending their own main battle tanks to Ukraine, and a U.S. backed assault on Crimea is expected soon. While Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky goads London, Berlin, and Paris into handing over fighter jets, his country has already suffered more than 100,000 casualties, hundreds of Ukrainian troops are dying every day just over a battle for the eastern Donetsk city of Bakhmut.

In recent months, officials in Kiev have explicitly stated that Ukraine—a “de facto” NATO member—is “shedding blood” for a “NATO mission.” The goal is eliminating Moscow as a “threat” to the alliance by weakening, destabilizing, and disintegrating Russia.

In the process, Ukraine, the human battering ram, is being destroyed. But in the words of Madeline Albright, from the Empire’s perspective, “the price is worth it.”

Russia must be crippled before the Pentagon launches its impending war against China, “the big one,” which top military commanders and four star generals now warn will take place in only a few years.

In the meantime, experts and analysts continue to point out—along with even The New York Times—that we are systematically pushing “the United States and its NATO allies closer to direct conflict with Russia.”

What is the justification for this seemingly perpetual escalation? The U.S. war machine reasons that since Russian President Vladimir Putin has not yet ordered strikes on NATO territory or pushed the nuclear button, Washington and its NATO vassals can freely provide Kiev with increasingly advanced weapons and even support assaults against the Crimean Peninsula as well as the Russian homeland itself.

The aforementioned tanks will likely be used for the potential attacks on Crimea (read: Russian territory) currently being considered by the White House. Such an escalation could swiftly lead to World War III and a nuclear exchange.

Incidentally, the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists warns nuclear war is now a more likely possibility than at any time during the Cold War. In making their case for turning the clock to 90 seconds to midnight—for the first time—the group partly refers to the refusal of the United States, Ukraine, and its allies to come to the negotiating table.

BAS president and CEO Rachel Bronson said in a statement following the decision that the “U.S. government, its NATO allies and Ukraine have a multitude of channels for dialogue; we urge leaders to explore all of them to their fullest ability to turn back the clock.”

Last fall, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Milley was advocating a negotiated settlement between Kiev and Moscow. However, he was all but vetoed by the so-called diplomats in Antony Blinken’s State Department.

Former Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett recently discussed how he attempted to mediate a peace deal with Russia and Ukraine in early March 2022. According to Bennett, both sides made major concessions and “there was a good chance of reaching a ceasefire.”  He has now revealed the effort was overruled and ultimately “blocked” by President Joe Biden and former UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson.

According to current and former U.S. officials, that same month, Turkish brokered talks in Istanbul between the warring sides also established a workable foundation for a future settlement. The whole enterprise was squashed again by Johnson, acting on behalf of the “collective West.”

Even when U.S. military leadership expresses uneasiness about the war’s trajectory, the provision of heavy western-made tanks, or the sheer inability of Ukrainian forces to regain all the territory Russia has captured, the escalations continue anyway. The hawkish Secretary General of NATO himself has said “I fear that the war in Ukraine will get out of control, and spread into a major war between NATO and Russia.”

Likewise, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has warned “I fear the world is not sleepwalking into a wider war. I fear it is doing so with its eyes wide open.” The American people must draw red lines now and stop their out of control ruling class waging wars against nuclear armed powers. As Roger Waters says, this is not a drill.

Our fellow countrymen have become dangerously desensitized to the thought of direct conflict with both Russia and China.

Tragically, our people have been numb for a long time. They have yet to truly reckon with our government’s mass murder marathon of the last 20 years including one million dead Iraqis, half a million dead Syrians, as well as the hundreds of thousands killed in Afghanistan, Libya, Pakistan, Somalia, and Yemen.

Designedly, our enemies in Washington need us to be numb to the inevitable results of their reckless, murderous policies. The hawks will next try the same proxy war strategy in Taiwan, we will not get another chance to draw red lines.

We must demand all military aid be terminated, and that the White House and the State Department be forced to support or at least not interfere with negotiations.

We must demand an immediate end to this war now.

A Pennsylvania man has been arrested after Transportation Security Administration (TSA) inspectors found a live explosive device hidden in a bag he checked for a flight from Pennsylvania’s Lehigh Valley International Airport to Orlando Sanford International on Monday.  

Marc Muffley, a 40-year-old resident of Lansford, Pennsylvania, has been charged with possessing an explosive in an airport and possessing or attempting to place an explosive or incendiary device on an aircraft.  

In a criminal complaint, the FBI says Muffley’s bag was flagged by an alarm after he checked it at the Allegiant Air counter. Officials examined the bag and found a “circular compound, approximately three inches in diameter, wrapped in wax-like paper and clear plastic wrap hidden in the lining of the baggage.”

When an FBI bomb technician X-rayed the compound, he concluded it contained a “granular type of powder consistent with a commercial grade firework. This granular powder is suspected to be a mixture of flash powder and the dark granulars that are used in commercial grade fireworks.”

Two fuses were attached to the compound: a “quick fuse” that appeared to “part of the original manufacture,” and a slower-burning “hobby fuse” that appeared to be added later. The agent submitting the criminal complaint said the powders “are susceptible to ignite from heat and friction and posed a significant risk to the aircraft and passengers.” 

The FBI says Muffley’s bag also contained a can of butane, a lighter, a pipe with white powder residue, a wireless drill with cordless batteries, and two GFCI outlets taped together with black tape. Upon discovery, the “immediate area” of the airport was evacuated, the TSA said. 

According to the complaint, airport security cameras captured Muffley being dropped off at the airport on Monday morning. While the name of the car’s owner was redacted, that person’s driver’s license has the same address as Muffley, about 40 miles northwest of the Lehigh Valley airport in Allentown. 

When TSA officials found the explosive compound, they paged Muffley over the airport public address system, directing him to report to the security desk. Five minutes later, cameras captured him leaving the airport.

Muffley was arrested at his home about 12 hours later, at 11:30 Monday night. On Thursday, he admitted to packing the materials, but his lawyer suggested he intended to shoot fireworks on a Florida beach, near where his ill grandfather lives. 

“No one has posited one conceivable theory on how this thing could have gone off. That was not going to happen inside of a bag,” said his attorney, Jonathan McDonald. The judge ordered him held without bail. 

The Daily Mail, linking to Muffley’s rap sheet, reports that he has faced a variety of charges dating to 2017, including drug charges, harassment, “disorderly conduct engage in fighting,” and driving an unregistered vehicle. Citing the Hazleton Standard-Speaker, CNN reports that he was also arrested for stealing $22 worth of batteries from a Family Dollar store. 

Discussing the criminal history with CNN, former Lansford police chief Jack Soberick said his many encounters with Muffley were minor in nature: “There’s nothing that would light up and say, ‘Hey, this guy’s gonna try to bomb an aircraft’. I don’t think he’s radicalized or anything like that.”

This explosive compound was initially discovered by a machine. In 2015, an internal TSA investigation found that manned checkpoints had a 95% failure rate in discovering mock explosives and weapons being smuggled by undercover agents testing the system. 

Authored by Marie Hawthorne via The Organic Prepper blog,

Preppers get called conspiracy theorists a lot.  It’s supposed to be demeaning, but considering how many conspiracy theories have been proven correct lately, I no longer consider it an insult.  The more time goes by, the more “conspiracy theorists” just seem ahead of the game.

Quite a few “conspiracy theories” have recently come to light as actual facts in 2023 already. And it’s only the beginning of March.

Let’s look at a recent batch of “conspiracy theories” that aren’t really theories any more.  

Gas stoves in peril?

In January, the OP ran a story about the potential ban on gas stoves.  Naturally, the mainstream media poo-poohed the idea that the government would do something like that.  The New York Times insisted that “No, Biden is Not Trying to Ban Gas Stoves.”   CNN likewise claimed Biden didn’t want to ban the stoves  NPR dismissed the thought of banning gas stoves as a right-wing, culture war stunt.

Well, maybe they’re not going to outright ban gas stoves. . . but the Department of Energy is proposing new efficiency standards that will make approximately half the gas stoves on the market no longer available. So, technically this isn’t a ban, but regulating gas stoves out of existence has the exact same effect.   

This is particularly problematic for anyone with fairly new models.  Newer appliances are made to break down within about ten years.  Anyone who’s been a homeowner for more than a decade knows this.  If appliances are made to only last ten years or so, the government doesn’t need to conduct some dramatic midnight raid to steal your stove.  All they have to do is wait.  Within ten years, most people will have to replace their stoves anyway, and at that point, very few, if any, gas stoves will still be on the market.  

Nope, it’s not just a theory.  They really do want to get rid of gas stoves.

Covid origins?

And in other Department of Energy news, the agency recently came to the conclusion that Covid probably did come from a lab.  The findings were part of a classified report, which the government agency shared with the Wall Street Journal last weekend.

Back in 2021, the FBI had been the only federal agency to state with “moderate confidence” that Covid came from a lab.  At the time, their finding mostly went ignored.  However, with another agency admitting it, and WSJ covering the story, it becomes more difficult to brush aside.

And at least we’re allowed to openly discuss the lab leak now.  Two years ago, we weren’t.  In February 2021, Facebook banned any discussion of the possible laboratory origins of Covid.  The lab leak theory was just too crazy to even consider. Zero Hedge was banished from Twitter for daring to suggest the makeup of the virus was peculiar in 2020. The Organic Prepper was called a disinformation site and defunded due, in part, to our coverage of the virus.

But now, House Republicans are launching an investigation into the origins of Covid.   And once the Wall Street Journal publishes something, even the stodgiest Boomers can’t ignore it.  

The Covid lab leak theory is slowly but surely looking less like a theory, and more like an established fact.

The Covid vaccine?

This is hardly the only situation in which Covid dissidents have been proven correct.  There has been a small contingent of people from the beginning who were reluctant to participate in the trial of a novel medical product.  Considering the many criminal payouts Big Pharma has had to make over the years, wanting long-term studies before trying a novel pharmaceutical product shouldn’t be controversial.    

The cost (injecting a poorly-tested novel substance) did not match up with the benefit (avoiding a not-particularly dangerous disease that many of us had a natural immunity to anyway).  Plenty of well-informed people had perfectly rational reasons for vaccine hesitancy.

Were our concerns taken seriously?  No.  The Othering was vicious and relentless.  Daisy wrote an article about it here.  Family relationships were stressed and sometimes broken. Careers were ended. Opportunities were denied. Reputations were ruined.  

And meanwhile, the “safe and effective” drumbeat resounded.  Anyone who wanted real answers about what was happening, who wanted to wait for long-term studies, was dismissed as a conspiracy theorist.

So, who was right?  Were the shots safe and effective?  Or were the conspiracy theorists the reasonable ones?

I’m not a doctor or statistician.  All I can do is point at actual numbers.  And even the most pro-vax publications cannot hide the non-Covid excess mortality of the past two years. Young, formerly healthy people have been dying at far higher rates than they used to, and it’s not from Covid.  As of right now, no one can prove that jabs are responsible, because no one wants to look that closely.  But we can’t prove they’re not responsible, either.  Safe?  I’m not convinced, and neither are a lot of vastly more qualified people.  Just look at Ed Dowd’s meticulously researched book, Cause Uknown.

And even Tony “The Science” Fauci recently admitted that the shots don’t really work at preventing transmission or infection.  So, nope, these jabs aren’t effective either.  

Meanwhile, Congress is finally launching an investigation into the safety of the forced vaccine.

Were the conspiracy theorists right to be cautious about the new shots?  Yeah, I think so.  

Mandatory masking?

And what about the masks?  We got mixed signals about masks from the beginning.  In March 2020, Dr. Fauci said they didn’t work, then he later changed his tune.  Many people around the country had to deal with mask mandates for over a year.

Well, the experts at the Cochrane Library recently published a huge meta-analysis of the effectiveness of physical barriers (like masks) at preventing respiratory viruses (like Covid).  They can’t find any strong links between masking and disease prevention.  Cochrane studies are the gold standard.  They’re very conservative, they rarely make hard and fast statements, but once they do, people typically stop arguing.  

The mask debate is one that really smacks us at the OP because, back in 2021, NewsGuard cited our questioning of the mask narrative as a reason to downgrade us, which really hurt our income stream.  Daisy goes into the whole story here. She cited studies with a variety of outcomes regarding masks, and NewsGuard saw the variety of viewpoints as reason enough to downgrade us.

The journalism majors working at NewsGuard don’t seem to understand that letting multiple educated people argue is more true to the scientific ideal than top-down authoritarian mandates.  

I’m not the only person saying this.  Dr. Jay Bhattacharya, a Stanford professor and MD, said as much in a recent interview with Jordan Peterson. At 5:26, he talks about public perception during the pandemic:

There was this sort of uni-vocal conclusion that you had to do lockdowns, you had to wear masks, you had to socially distance, you had to put plastic barriers up, you had to close schools, you had to do all of these things; that the vaccines would stop transmission of the disease, that therefore it was warranted that people would lose their jobs over them.  All of these ideas were sold as if there was a scientific consensus in favor of them.  That was a lie.  There was never a scientific consensus on almost any of the topics; and as you say on masks, in fact, the preexisting narrative, the preexisting idea of most scientists before the pandemic, was in quite the opposite direction.

Dr. Bhattacharya’s not the only highly qualified doctor speaking out, either.  In fact, so many of the various Covid narratives have been proven wrong, that Dr. Marty Makary, chief of Islet Transplant Surgery at Johns Hopkins medical school, recently published an article February 27 titled “10 myths told by covid experts—and now debunked.”  

“Masks prevent transmission” is #2 on the list.  I guess if NewsGuard still thinks Daisy is a conspiracy theorist over this one, she’s got some pretty kick-ass company.

But in all seriousness, thank God (or whoever you pray to) for doctors like Dr. Bhattacharya and Dr. Makary for not treating the public like we’re mentally impaired rodents.  There are still a few true medical experts out there who genuinely want to educate the public, and give us real answers.  

The air and water in East Palestine?

In the meantime, I wonder if the EPA will find any real experts. That agency keeps insisting that the air and water in East Palestine are perfectly safe, despite the derailment and subsequent disaster going on a few weeks ago.  

The EPA says they’ve been testing for everything and that the numbers indicate everything looks good; professional chemists aren’t so sure.  “They should be testing for individual compounds, and if they are testing for total VOCs [volatile organic compounds] as a screen, they need to have very sensitive instruments because some VOCs are much more toxic than others,” says Ted Schettler, MD, and science director at the nonprofit Science and Environmental Health network.  The fact that East Palestine residents are still smelling off odors suggests that the EPA is not using sensitive enough equipment.

And the EPA hasn’t started testing for the myriad other substances that formed when the known chemicals in the train were burned.  When you mix chemicals together and burn them, new chemicals form, and this hasn’t even been talked about much yet.  

It’s probably going to be a long time before we have a good picture of the damage caused by this derailment.  But, what do we know?

We know that the people of East Palestine are still suffering from bizarre symptoms.  Rashes, shortness of breath, and a burning sensation while breathing are common.  Some people have had voice changes, loss of taste and smell, and random infections. Because East Palestine is such a low-income area, doctors can’t do the tests they need to, though they all agree that the citizens are in real pain.  

And yet EPA Administrator Michael Regan states, “Nothing is coming back that shows adverse health impacts.”  

Government officials are not helping themselves by insisting there’s “nothing to see here!”  Distrusting the federal government has traditionally been in the realm of conspiracy theorists, but once again, which group of people seems more reasonable?  

The Twitter files?

I’ve spent a lot of time wondering if I’m too cynical, too eager to see ill intent.

Then came the Twitter Files. 

We’ve written about them before on this site. When Elon Musk bought Twitter, he handed over internal documents to independent journalists Bari Weiss, Matt Taibbi, Michael Shellenberger, and Lee Feng to peruse.  

Many figures in alternative media had suspected they were being shadow-banned, or having a hard time reaching followers.  The Twitter Files confirmed everyone’s worst suspicions: the federal government does spend millions of dollars policing online content, and much of it targets law-abiding citizens with inconvenient opinions, rather than real criminals.  Many of the people that had their accounts locked or frozen weren’t even big media presences, just people with a few dozen followers with an annoying sense of humor, or who got snarky about the wrong things.   

Five years ago, anyone convinced the Feds were watching their every online move would have been labeled a crazy conspiracy theorist.  

Well, yet again, the conspiracy theorists have been proven correct.  

The gaslighting continues.

If you’ve ever been in an abusive relationship, you probably know what it’s like to have someone trying to convince you you’re crazy.  The only way to survive gaslighting like that is to constantly remind yourself of things you know are true.  That’s why it’s so important to keep track of whatever narratives we’re supposed to swallow and constantly check them against our preexisting knowledge base.  It’s important to hold purveyors of false narratives to account; it’s important to point to tangible facts and to be able to discuss them.

These are only the most recent examples of conspiracy theorists being proven correct.  Daisy had an article about “7 Things That Used to Be ‘Crazy Conspiracy Theories’ Until 2020 Happened.”  The tin foil hat wearers have been getting vindicated a lot in the past few years.  

I think we’re going to keep seeing more of this for a while.  Universal Basic Income, digital currencies, AI tech, there are so many new things happening right now. 

A map released on Thursday by US Drought Monitor shows that the convey belt of severe rain and winter storms for the last two months has significantly eased California’s extreme drought.

The Sierra Nevada region in north-central California, the coastline stretching from Monterey Bay to northwest Los Angeles County, and parts of northwest California, including Humboldt and Del Norte counties, are no longer classified as being in a state of drought.

The middle of the state is now labeled as “abnormally dry,” while northeast California and the high desert of southeastern California remain in “severe drought” and “moderate drought” classifications — but easing from extreme levels several months ago. 

On Jan. 12, the drought map showed that conditions in various regions had started to improve after a series of storms in the first two weeks of the month.

Here’s what the drought map looked like on Jan. 5. 

And on Dec. 9. 

Since the recent snowstorms, snowpack levels across the state have reportedly reached a 40-year high. 

There’s so much snow in Southern California that Gov. Gavin Newsom has declared a state of emergency. 

San Bernardino Co. Snow Response:

– 4 to 5 feet of additional snow overnight
-500 miles of mountain roads need plowing
-Over 96 responses to residents
-No serious injuries/deaths
-still waiting on additional resources after emergency declaration @FOXLAhttps://t.co/fYy07DbUgj pic.twitter.com/TgvOhZScxa

— Mario Ramirez (@MarioFOXLA) March 1, 2023

All the storms have been a boon for California’s reservoirs. The latest figures show 94% of major reservoir levels are at normal for this time of year. This is great news following last summer when reservoir levels were dangerously low. 

Here are stunning before and after photos of Lake Oroville, one of California’s largest reservoirs. 

And just like that, Mother Nature heals itself without any assistance from Democrats who tax the heck out of people in the name of ‘saving the planet.’ 

Authored by Jason Ditz via AntiWar.com,

Speaking to the US House Armed Services Committee, Undersecretary of Defense Colin Kahl falsely testified that Iran could make enough weapons-grade uranium for a bomb in “about 12 days.”

Kahl claims that Iran’s enrichment capacity has increased sufficiently over the course of the past five years — since the US abandoned the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, aka the “Iran nuclear deal” — to reduce that timeline from more like a year, and regrets that the JCPOA is “on ice.”

Kahl as the third ranking DOD official said in his testimony, “Because Iran’s nuclear progress since we left the JCPOA has been remarkable. Back in 2018, when the previous administration decided to leave the JCPOA it would have taken Iran about 12 months to produce one bomb’s worth of fissile material. Now it would take about 12 days.”

He continued: “And so I think there is still the view that if you could resolve this issue diplomatically and put constraints back on their nuclear program, it is better than the other options. But right now, the JCPOA is on ice.”

But other officials concede that Iran is not stockpiling any uranium enriched beyond 60%, well short of weapons grade, and also doubt Iran’s other technical capacities to build nuclear weapons.

Iran may produce fissile material for a bomb ‘in about 12 days’ – says US senior official @ColinKahl pic.twitter.com/5FyEvSpoEf

— Amichai Stein (@AmichaiStein1) February 28, 2023

Getting a bomb’s worth of 90% uranium is no small task, even before trying to make it into a deliverable weapon. Iran’s weapons development capabilities would be in doubt even if they were stockpiling uranium, which again they aren’t.

Pentagon officials still maintain that getting back into a deal with Iran is preferable to not having one.

The Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) and the National People’s Congress (NPC) – the so-called Two Sessions – will kick off this weekend (starting on Saturday, March 4 and Sunday, March 5, respectively). During the one-week long “Two Sessions” event, the Government Work Report delivered by outgoing Premier Li Keqiang and the 2023 fiscal budget proposed by the Ministry of Finance will be discussed and approved by the NPC. Because this year’s Two Sessions coincide with the once-in-a-decade personnel reshuffling at the State Council as well as all the ministries under the State Council, they carry special importance.

The TL/DR summary of what to expect, comes from Bloomberg’s in-house China expert Tom Orlik who writes that the Congress/Conference will see a further direct concentration of economic and financial power under the CCP:

While the assumption among many China watchers is that the changes represent a further tilt away from markets that is ultimately bad for growth, recent moves to end Covid Zero restrictions, boost support for the property sector and seek better ties with the US suggest that investors shouldn’t rush to conclusions. The potential positive way of looking at the looming personnel and organizational changes is when Xi has a team around him who he’s familiar with and who he trusts. Perhaps there’s just some more space to get some good things done, to make some pragmatic decisions.

For those less pressed for time, here is a more detailed summary on what to expect at the Two Sessions, as excerpted from a recent note by Goldman analyst Hui Shan

Three things to watch: growth target, fiscal budget, and personnel changes

On the first day of the NPC (Sunday, March 5), the sitting premier Li Keqiang will deliver his last Government Work Report (GWR) which will contain the government’s various economic targets, most important of which is the GDP growth target. Goldman’s baseline expectation is a relatively conservative “around 5%” GDP growth target, although the bank forecasts actual GDP growth to be 5.5% in 2023. Last year’s miss on growth target (3.0% actual growth vs. “around 5.5%” target) may cause policymakers to set a low bar to ensure success this year as evidenced by provincial governments’ conservative targets for 2023. Investors currently expect a growth target in the 5-5.5% range, and a significantly higher target (e.g., 6%) announced over the weekend could be market-moving.

The GWR will mention some fiscal plans such as official on-budget deficit (GS expects 3.2% vs. 2.8% last year) and local government special bond (LGSB) quota (GS expects RMB 4tn vs. RMB 3.65tn last year). However, the more comprehensive fiscal budget proposal is likely released later during the Two Sessions. The projected tax revenue growth may inform us about the government’s expectation on nominal GDP growth, the planned transfer from central to local governments may hint at policymakers’ concern on local governments’ fiscal conditions and their determination in controlling local government implicit debt, and the government-managed fund revenue (mostly land sales revenue) may give us clues on policymakers’ view on the property sector momentum.

During the Two Sessions, changes to Party and state organizations and reshuffling of State Council and ministerial personnel, which were planned at the Second Plenum during February 26-28, will be revealed to the public and approved by the NPC. It has been reported in the media that the financial regulatory authority may be moved to a resurrected Central Financial Work Commission (which was first established in 1998 in the aftermath of the Asia Financial Crisis and abolished in 2003) led by Ding Xuexiang, a Politburo Standing Committee member. The current Financial Stability and Development Committee under the State Council and led by Liu He may cease to exist. And He Lifeng, a Politburo member, may replace Guo Shuqing, a Central Committee member, to become the party secretary of the PBOC. If true, these changes indicate an elevated importance of, and more party control over, the financial regulatory system.

Beyond these three key parameters, statements on sector-specific policies can be important to investors as well. For example, characterization of the property market, consumption boosting measures, and internet regulations are worth monitoring. Such discussions may be provided in the GWR, press conferences with ministers in economic and financial areas, and/or in official news reports by Xinhua, People’s Daily and CCTV. Additionally, statements in the GWR regarding Taiwan may also gather market attention

Where we are in the post-Covid recovery

To gauge policy stance to be unveiled at or after the Two Sessions, one must first assess where China is in its post-Covid economic recovery. Based on GS tracking of high-frequency data, mobility measures such as the 100-city traffic congestion index have mostly normalized (Exhibit 2). Channel checks and anecdotal evidence suggest that high-end consumer markets have been recovering quickly. In the property market, the 30-city daily property sales data showed notable improvements in recent days (Exhibit 3). Similarly, the NBS 70-city property prices and the Beke’s 50-city existing home prices showed increases in the latest readings. However, it should be noted that high-frequency data in the property sector tend to overweight large top-tier cities where fundamentals are more supportive of a faster recovery. Smaller lower-tier cities, by contrast, continue to struggle due to weak demographic and economic fundamentals as well as dampened price expectations. For many consumption categories, 2022 demand was dramatically below trend and there is still a long way to go for China’s post-Covid recovery, especially for services sectors, mass markets, migrant and young workers.

Four policy expectations

As mobility, consumption, and property have begun to show clear signs of recovering, the growth acceleration that the market expect this year is broadly on track. As a result, cyclical policy in aggregate should be less stimulative this year than last year. In fact, the PBOC has allowed interbank market rates (e.g., DR007) to increase to the level of policy rates (e.g., 7-day OMO), a sign of policy normalization after very loose liquidity conditions during and after the Shanghai lockdown last year (Exhibit 4).1 Despite higher headline official on-budget deficit and LGSB quota that will likely be released on the first day of the NPC, Goldman expects the augmented fiscal deficit, a more comprehensive gauge of fiscal stance, to narrow by 1.5% of GDP from 2022 to 2023.

But this is not to say that policy will tighten in the same abrupt and significant manner as it did in 2020H2. Precisely because the withdrawal of policy support and the imposition and tightening measures were too much too fast back then, policymakers will be more patient this time around, especially when the potential downside risk from weaker external demand remains considerable and confidence remains fragile. Even though the February PMIs were much stronger than expected and property prices in top-tier cities appear to be edging higher again, a meaningful withdrawal of policy support is unlikely until at least Q3 this year.

Policymakers have been reiterating the message of enhancing domestic demand and boosting private consumption since last December’s Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC). However, the likelihood of significant nationwide cash handouts remains very low. Between budget constraints and cultural preferences, the government will continue the past approach of using infrastructure investment to stimulate the economy when needed. Consumption-boosting measures will likely stay within the realm of tax subsidies for autos and home appliances, accelerated rental housing construction, and small-scale local consumption coupons.

Although the precise policy stance announced at or after the Two Sessions is difficult to predict, especially with the once-in-a-decade reshuffling at the State Council and in various ministries, there should effectively be a “policy put” for at least 5% growth this year. With GDP growth only reaching 3% last year and with 2023 marking the first year of the new premier’s 10-year term, the government’s tolerance for below 5% GDP growth this year will be low.

Two key risks, one external and one domestic

The most significant downside risk to China’s 2023 economic growth is exports. Chinese exports fell sharply in late 2022 (-9.9% yoy in December), in line with the experience of other export-oriented economies such as South Korea and Taiwan and suggesting external demand has indeed been softening. Recent media reports also highlighted empty containers at ports and dwindling overseas orders. Goldman’s baseline expectation is flat real goods exports this year as its global team projects no recession in the US or Europe over the next 12 months. However, if exports turn out to be a lot weaker than expected, policymakers may need to boost monetary/fiscal easing and infrastructure building again. Given the more limited fiscal space after last year’s efforts to stabilize the economy, additional infrastructure investment would likely be financed through policy banks and commercial banks instead of government debt.

Onshore conversations suggest business and consumer confidence remains the main risk to growth domestically. Without confidence, the post-Covid recovery may not be sustainable as private firms are reluctant to invest and households are reluctant to spend. The recent message from the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection against “financial elites” and “hedonism and extravagance” has raised concerns that anti-corruption campaign could intensify this year. Hence, communications from the top economic and financial policymakers in the new government after the Two Sessions will be particularly important to watch.

There are certainly other risks in the economy. US-China relations have weighed on investor sentiment after the balloon incident, US Secretary of the State Antony Blinken postponing his trip to China, and media reports of China considering supplying arms to Russia. We may see more negative headlines in the coming months. However, this is a structural issue and the impact on economic growth this year still looks limited thus far. Financial risks from small and rural banks and local government financing vehicles (LGFV) could re-emerge later this year if NPLs are recognized and interest rates rise after policy normalization. But such risks can be managed and the Zunyi LGFV bond restructuring in January was an example. Risks of policy overtightening also appear low due to the experience of 2020/2021, and as discussed earlier, policymakers will be more patient this year.

Overall, China’s post-Covid recovery has just started with some encouraging signs, setting the stage for Goldman’s forecast of 5.5% full-year GDP growth (and 6.5% yoy in Q4) which is above consensus (Bloomberg consensus 5.2%). The government is likely to remain patient in withdrawing support, and to stand by to ease in the event that recovery disappoints or exports fall short. After the strong February PMI print, the market will be focusing on hard data such as January/February trade (to be released on March 7) and retail sales (to be released on March 15). If these hard data surprise meaningfully to the upside, the risk-on market movements featuring stronger RMB and higher equity/rates/commodities will continue.

Authored by Andrew Thornebrooke via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

China’s communist regime is engaged in a concerted effort to undermine and replace the United States by weaponizing Americans against one another, according to testimony received by a new congressional committee focused on competition with the regime.

The House Select Committee on Strategic Competition between the United States and the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) held its first hearing on Feb. 28, titled simply “The Chinese Communist Party’s Threat to America.”

Committee Chair Mike Gallagher (R-Wis.) described the competition between the United States and CCP as an “existential struggle,” and said that the CCP, which rules China as a single-party state, was pitting “America against America,” hoping to topple the United States from within.

Ranking member Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-Ill.) agreed with the assessment, saying that the regime sought to exploit the political divisions endemic to democratic societies against the United States.

“The CCP wants us to be fractious, partisan, and prejudiced,” Krishnamoorthi said.

“We must rise to the occasion and prove them wrong.”

To that end, however, Gallagher noted that many powerful and monied interests within the United States had made their fortunes outsourcing American jobs to China, and were pushing back on U.S. efforts to secure itself against the regime.

“The CCP has found friends on Wall Street, in Fortune 500 C-suites, and on K Street who are ready and willing to oppose efforts to push back,” Gallagher said.

“This strategy has worked well in the past, and the CCP is confident it will work again. Our task on this committee is to ensure that it does not.”

‘Tech-Powered Dystopia’

Former National Security adviser H.R. McMaster testified on the issue, saying that the United States had “fallen behind” in the strategic competition with the CCP and that continued investments into China by American corporations were “underwriting our own demise.”

McMaster said that the “false promises of liberalization” had led to a corporate and political class within America that had largely expected continued investment in China to transform it into a more modern and democratic society.

Instead, he said, the regime had doubled down on its Marxist ideology and was now exporting destructive ideologies to erode support for the West.

To that end, McMaster said that a “curriculum of self loathing,” which asserts the United States is the reason for the world’s problems, had taken hold of much of the popular and academic culture in the West, and prevented the nation from adequately defending itself against continued espionage, theft, and repression by the CCP.

Likewise, Rep. Darin LaHood (R-Ill.) said that corporate America was “scared and worried” about the possibility of angering CCP authorities, and that the regime was exploiting that fear to undermine the United States on the world stage.

“China has a plan to replace the United States,” LaHood said.

As such, Gallagher said that the Select Committee would help to coordinate legislative efforts from across congressional committees, and focus on tackling the CCP’s ideological, technological, economic, and military efforts against the United States and its allies and partners.

Read more here…

A mysterious spate of mass illnesses across various parts of Iran only impacting groups of girls is beginning to cause panic and alarm, ironically also at a moment of continuing anti-government protests focusing on women taking off the veil. 

Girls in up to 15 cities have been affected, Iranian authorities have said, in what are suspected to be mass poisonings. There’s currently speculation that an unknown entity, possibly hardline Islamists, may be throwing some type of poisonous gas mixture into schools and school yards, causing dozens of girls at a time to fall ill. The bizarre incidents began being reported back in November.

Al Jazeera reports based on the latest statements from Iranian lawmakers that “Similar poisonings have since happened in several other schools in Qom, Tehran, the city of Borujerd in the western province of Lorestan and the northwestern city of Ardebi.” And further, “Scores of schoolgirls have been affected in each incident, and some have had to be hospitalized.”

However, there have been no confirmed deaths in the incidents where the impacted students reported smelling unusual odors such as “rotten tangerines” or strong chemical smells, or even scents akin to perfumes. There have been rumors of a death resulting from the alleged poison attacks, but this was denied by local authorities. 

School girls have reported feeling headaches and nausea, and there have been some reports of individuals experiencing temporary paralysis of their limbs.

Really disturbing scenes from @1500Tasvir of Isfahan University of Technology students today being taken away on stretchers after another poison attack. Girls are being raped, blinded, imprisoned, killed, and now poisoned in #Iran. pic.twitter.com/Duit9QXOmS

— Jason Brodsky (@JasonMBrodsky) March 1, 2023

There’s growing suspicion that these could be attacks by hardline Islamists who condemn the idea of women receiving education, akin to neighboring Afghanistan’s recent banning of all girls’ schooling under Taliban rule. A top Iranian officials has suggested this is the case: 

But a deputy health minister, Younes Panahi, earlier this week became the first official to confirm that the poisonings have been deliberate. He told state-linked media that “some people” wish to stop girls from going to school. He did not elaborate.

Panahi said the poisonings have been caused by commercially available chemicals and cannot be transmitted because no viruses or bacteria are involved.

In some instances entire classrooms of students and teachers reported smelling odors before mass sicknesses…

One girl noticed a strange smell, and told her teacher she struggled to breathe. The teacher asked the other students if they smelled anything. Then the whole class fell ill.

A string of mysterious, alleged poisonings stokes fear in Iran. My story:https://t.co/KFhYJCW9Bu

— Sune Engel Rasmussen (@SuneEngel) March 2, 2023

As the poison attacks have in the past days been subject of growing international media attention, Washington has weighed in, with US National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby calling the situation “deeply concerning” on Thursday. Investigations at multiple locations are still ongoing.

Authored by Adam Carrington via RealClear Wire,

We live in politically divided times. How we describe the sources of our divisions, though, varies. Some focus on principles such as equality, justice, liberty, and order. Some take up policy disputes related to those principles while others look to economic class, race, or even geography.

Does using these lenses to view our divisions violate our founding principles? Since humans will disagree about justice, especially its application, one can defend principled lines. Indeed, our Founders created mechanisms of elections and deliberative bodies to adjudicate those differences. Moreover, one can rightly conclude that race presents a troubling source of division in light of our commitment to human equality.

But what about economic or social class?

The issue of class holds particular salience today, because its relationship to our broader partisan divides has changed drastically over the past several decades. In a recent New York Times piece, Nate Cohn describes our partisanship in terms of education, a demarcation of social class that has largely replaced distinctions by economic class and even shows signs of mitigating racial voting disparities.

In his explanation, Cohn shows how the growth of voters with college degrees has changed the political landscape. That block has increased dramatically over the last 60 years, rising to 41% of the voting population in the 2022 midterm elections. As that group has gained influence in the Democratic Party, those without college degrees have moved toward the GOP. Accelerating in 2016, working class voters now vote for Republicans at levels unimaginable decades ago.

The difference in education marks a division in principles and resulting policy preferences. College-educated voters tend to hold more progressive views, especially on cultural matters like sexuality, abortion, and, to the degree it is cultural, immigration. Those without a college degree lean more conservatively on such matters. These divisions have replaced partisan lines more delineated by economic factors of rich, poor, and middle class and are lessening the voting gaps according to race. Turning from their existence to their legitimacy, one might argue that both instances of class divides contradict our commitment to equality – constituting various flavors of “identity politics” where we vote according to who a person “is” rather than what they believe or how they act.

The Founders were keenly aware of class divisions. In Federalist 10, James Madison noted that “the diversity in the faculties of men” resulted in “the possession of different degrees and kinds of property.” He continued that “from the influence of these on the sentiments and views of the respective proprietors, ensues a division of the society into different interests and parties.”

We certainly do form partisan coalitions along class lines. The differences in “degrees” of property explain the divide in economic class. The distinction in “kinds of property” also reveal our educational alignment. A college degree is a discrete kind of property that privileges (or discourages) acquiring other intellectual or material possessions.

Yet in Federalist 10, Madison argues these divisions won’t go away. They won’t go away because human beings can’t help thinking (at least in part) along these lines. They also won’t go away because of the commitment to the principle that government exists in large part to protect property rights – including their unequal and varied distributions.

This illuminates an essential principle that oversees our class divisions, neither seeking to destroy them nor merely placating them. In Federalist 51, Madison wrote, “Justice is the end of government. It is the end of civil society. It ever has been and ever will be pursued until it be obtained, or until liberty be lost in the pursuit.” We must order our class divisions, whether economic or social, in the pursuit of justice.

Class divides, including ones in education, can inform justice. In the “Essex Result” (1778), future federal judge Theophilus Parsons argued persons from different classes tended to make distinct, helpful contributions to the pursuit of justice. He saw that the few wealthy and educated people were better suited to contribute “wisdom, firmness, consistency, and perseverance.” The many, he noted, is where “we shall find the greatest share of political honesty, probity, and a regard to the interest of the whole.” You need both sets of virtues to pursue justice well. Thus you need both sets of perspectives to participate in politics. While operating according to majority rule, our system seeks to integrate these different elements into wise and moral policymaking – a kind of checking and balancing of interests toward the common good.

At the same time, class divisions can threaten justice. Federalist 10 warned of “factions,” a group of persons driven by impulsive passions who sought to violate individual rights and the common good. Madison pegs the permanence of our class divisions as one reason we cannot completely rid ourselves of factions and their nefarious goals. Different classes will ever be tempted to say their class should alone rule and their interests as the only just ones, thereby laying the path to violating the rights of others. We can see elements of these perspectives at work in our contemporary politics, wherein the college educated look down on the morals and intellect of “the rest” while “the rest” question the wisdom and values of the college-educated.

Thus our assessment of class divides, whether the older economic ones or the newer educational ones, cannot be a simple endorsement or condemnation. Instead we must return to the wisdom of the Founders. These ever-present divides must be channeled toward good and steered away from bad. We must seek justice, affirming human equality and liberty even as we recognize distinctions among us. While the Founders would tell us we have no other choice, they also would tell us not to despair. Our divisions may be a source of a better unity.

Adam Carrington is an associate professor of politics at Hillsdale College.

After last month President Putin declared Russia has suspended participation in the New START nuclear arms control treaty, and at a moment the Kremlin is accusing Washington of aiding cross-border sabotage and drone attacks on its soil, proof has emerged that the two superpower rivals are still talking at the highest levels. 

“Secretary of State Antony Blinken spoke briefly with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov on Thursday during the Group of 20 (G-20) conference about the war in Ukraine and the New START nuclear treaty,” The Associated Press reports Thursday.

The two top diplomats spoke for about 10 minutes on the sidelines of the summit, which is the first such in-person meeting since the war’s start, coming shortly after the Ukraine war has entered its second year. Additionally the G20 reportedly ended without finding consensus on Ukraine, with India’s foreign minister citing “divergences” among countries represented. 

Blinken referenced the talk with Lavrov at a press conference afterward, a summary of which said:

At a news conference, Blinken said he told Lavrov that the U.S. would continue to support Ukraine for as long as it takes and would push for the war to end through diplomatic terms that Kyiv agrees to.

“End this war of aggression, engage in meaningful diplomacy that can produce a just and durable peace,” Blinken said he had told Lavrov. But, he noted that “President Putin, has demonstrated zero interest in engaging, saying there is nothing to even talk about until Ukraine accepts the new territorial reality.”

Blinken said he also urged Russia to reverse “its irresponsible decision and return to” participation in the New START nuclear treaty.

“Mutual compliance is in the interest of both our countries,” Blinken said he told Lavrov, adding that the United States was always willing to discuss arms control with Russia no matter what irritants there are in the bilateral relationship.

Also very notable is that Blinken indicated he put forward a “serious proposal” for the release of detained ex-Marine and US citizen Paul Whelan. He stressed that “Russia should take it.”

Lavrov didn’t specifically respond to Blinken’s description of the meeting, and it’s unclear how he presented the Russian position. But a statement by Lavrov did emphasize that G20 was a failure in terms of addressing the Ukraine crisis: 

“Unfortunately, the declaration on behalf of all G20 ministers could not be approved. Our Western colleagues, just as they did a year ago under the Indonesian presidency, tried by all means, by hook or by crook, using various rhetorical statements, to bring to the fore the situation around Ukraine, which they, of course, present under the sauce of the so-called Russian aggression,” he said.

“Nothing good has come of this. The discussion, at least in some of the speeches by Western delegations, especially the G7 countries, has boiled down to emotional statements. And all of this, of course, was done at the expense of a normal discussion of the problems that really stand on the G20 agenda.”

As for India, Prime Minister Narendra Modi addressed the meeting in New Delhi on Thursday, saying “The experience of the last few years – financial crisis, climate change, pandemic, terrorism and wars – clearly shows that global governance has failed.” He added: “We should not allow issues that we cannot resolve together to come in the way of those we can.”

Thus Modi seemed to agree with Russia’s negative assessment concluding that G20 leaders fell far short of producing any meaningful resolutions on Ukraine.