During the Covid-19 pandemic, consumers socked away an unprecedented amount of cash thanks to government stimulus and a locked down economy. There was such a surplus that people were able to also pay down debt, buy new appliances, and take vacations once draconian lockdowns were lifted. And of course, businesses raised prices and hired more workers to meet the flood of demand.

Now that we’re ‘enjoying’ inflation while wages have struggled to keep up, the question becomes – how long can consumers maintain this level of spending with their “excess” savings, which was estimated at $1.2 – $1.8 trillion heading into Q3 of this year?

Around nine to twelve months, according to the Wall Street Journal.

What’s more, consumers have already been loading up credit cards to supplement their incomes.

A brief history of recent savings trends via the Journal;

In 2019, before the pandemic hit, households saved 8.8% of their disposable income. That saving rate jumped to 16.8% in 2020, the highest annual saving rate on record, as government stimulus and unemployment benefits left many consumers flush with cash but with few opportunities to spend during lockdowns.

In 2021 the saving rate moderated to 11.8%, and it has fallen further during 2022. The rate has been below 4% for seven straight months and in September it stood at 3.1%, near its lowest level since the 2008 financial crisis.

In short; consumers are spending more and saving less of their monthly income thanks to inflation.

What’s more, there are signs that consumers aren’t using their savings to pay down credit card debt like they used to – with the Federal Reserve Bank of NY reporting that credit card balances increased 15% YoY in the third quarter – the largest increase in more than two decades. Delinquencies, meanwhile, rose across all income groups.

According to JPMorgan, at this rate the excess savings could be ‘entirely spent by the second half of next year.’

Goldman economists estimate that households have depleted around 25% of their excess savings, and will have spent around 60% of it by the end of 2023.

“The growth boost from strong balance sheets is probably mostly behind us but … elevated wealth levels will provide a backstop to spending for households that are hit with a negative economic shock,” they wrote last week.

Analysts say a feature of this holiday spending season will be the divide between high-income households that still have savings and low-income households that have spent most of their rainy-day funds and are being squeezed by food, gasoline, and shelter inflation.

Economists at the Federal Reserve last month said households in the top half of the income distribution held the lion’s share of excess savings in mid-2022 at $1.35 trillion, and the lower half of the income distribution held about $350 billion. -WSJ

According to Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM US LLP, “It’s going to be an upscale holiday season, with strong spending in luxury names, experiential travel, upper-end resorts—and a more modest holiday season in bottom [income] quintiles.”

Authored by Andrew Moran via The Epoch Times,

Everstake, a Ukraine-based cryptocurrency firm, has been caught in the crosshairs of a controversial relationship involving Kyiv, Democrats, and the beleaguered FTX exchange that has captured the attention of Washington officials.

As part of efforts to generate more funds for the war effort, the Ukrainian government launched “Aid for Ukraine,” a website that accepted cryptocurrency donations that would be converted into fiat money and then deposited at the National Bank of Ukraine. The contributions would be used to purchase a wide range of essential items, from medical supplies to military clothing.

The Ministry of Digital Transformation partnered with FTX, Ukraine’s Kuna exchange, and Everstake to help facilitate crypto-denominated donations, which have totaled between $60 million and $100 million.

Because of former FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried’s immense donations to Democrat lawmakers and the timing between the creation of the fund and President Joe Biden’s billions in financial and military assistance to Kyiv, there has been speculation of wrongdoing. Critics allege that Ukraine invested in FTX to funnel money to the Democratic Party.

According to Everstake CEO Sergey Vasylchuk, it is a ridiculous assertion to think that the Ukrainian government would invest in private companies at a time of war and utilize critical resources for political payoffs, noting that Kyiv is “investing in the needs of families” with the aid it receives.

“Technically, the Ministry of Digital Transformation mostly supported the information point of view,” he told The Epoch Times, adding that it was chaotic in the early days of the war, requiring the use of backups to receive funds.

“It was messed up at the time,” the head of the staking service platform noted. “I never felt this was like a wonderful cheat. For me, when they say Ukraine invests in companies, I just ignore it.”

Vasylchuk confirmed that he was never in contact with Bankman-Fried during the process, explaining that FTX maintained only a small role in the fundraising effort.

“We have six people who were part of the compliance legal team” who helped get the Aid for Ukraine project off the ground, Vasylchuk averred.

Sergey Vasylchuk, CEO of Everstake, a Ukraine-based cryptocurrency firm. (Courtesy of Everstake)

Crypto has turned into a vital tool in the military conflict in Eastern Europe.

In recent months, pro-Russia organizations have been accepting donations through cryptocurrency exchanges, raising millions of dollars in digital currencies that are then used to support Moscow’s military campaign.

In the aftermath of the FTX collapse, there have been widespread concerns this would trigger a contagion effect. Cryptocurrency prices have plummeted, crypto-related firms have tumbled, and many parties that have been exposed to Bankman-Fried’s empire have experienced financial pressures.

But Vasylchuk says that Everstake is weathering the storm because it maintains diversified assets and, depending on a treasure trove of web reports, the company uses various wallets to ensure the safety and security of its holdings.

‘UNITED24’

Ukraine officials have also addressed the recent allegations, including Deputy Minister of Digital Transformation Oleksandr Bornyakov, who described the latest rumors as “nonsense.”

“A fundraising crypto foundation @_AidForUkraine used @FTX_Official to convert crypto donations into fiat in March. Ukraine’s gov never invested any funds into FTX. The whole narrative that Ukraine allegedly invested in FTX, who donated money to Democrats is nonsense, frankly,” he wrote in a tweet last week.

Aid for Ukraine was recently taken down and replaced with “UNITED24.”

“UNITED24 was launched by the president of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, as the main venue for collecting charitable donations in support of Ukraine. Funds will be transferred to the official accounts of the National Bank of Ukraine and allocated by assigned ministries to cover the most pressing needs,” the new website states.

The website also informed visitors that “we are looking for companies or enterprises that can help Ukraine with specific needs.”

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky during a meeting with the U.S. secretary of state in Kyiv on Sept. 8, 2022. (Genya Savilov/POOL/AFP via Getty Images)

Washington Probing FTX-Ukraine Connections

A growing number of U.S. officials are not convinced by these explanations.

In a letter to Secretary of State Antony Blinken, several House Republicans, led by Rep. Troy Nehls (R-Texas), wrote that it had recently come to their “attention that billions of taxpayer dollars sent to Ukraine to assist with their war efforts were potentially invested in a crypto exchange that then made massive donations to Democrats” during the 2022 midterm election campaign.

“While this partnership was touted as a way to assist Ukraine in cashing out crypto donations for ammunition and humanitarian aid, we have serious concerns that the Ukrainian government may have invested portions of the nearly $66 billion of U.S. economic assistance into FTX to keep Democrats in power—and keep the money coming in,” the lawmakers explained in a letter (pdf) exclusively obtained by FOX Business.

“We sincerely hope the primary driver behind the billions in congressional assistance to Ukraine was not Democrats attempting to keep themselves in power, and that none of the missing funds were used as a passthrough to avoid campaign finance laws or end up in Democrat pockets.”

A State Department spokesperson told the business news network that there is “no reason to believe that these reports are anything but pure falsehoods and misinformation.”

The House Financial Services Committee, led by Reps. Patrick McHenry (R-N.C.) and Maxine Waters (D-Calif.), announced a bipartisan hearing into the FTX debacle and what it could mean for the digital asset economy. The committee plans to hear from Bankman-Fried and individuals involved in Alameda Research, Binance, and FTX.

Iran has launched another round of attacks on Kurdish groups in northern Iraq in connection with ongoing anti-government protests inside the Islamic Republic. This as Iran’s own neighboring Kurdistan region has continued to be a hotbed of the now two-month long “anti-hijab” protests sparked by the death in police custody of a 22-year old Iranian Kurdish woman from Saqqez. 

Iran’s elite Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) announced early Monday that it struck three areas of the northern Iraqi Kurdish region with drones and missiles the day prior, causing “heavy damage” on the camps. Tehran has said that “terrorist groups”.

Iranian statement media said that 26 members Komala and the Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan were killed as a result. 

Iran had first carried out a similar cross-border attack in September, which was said to have killed an American citizen who was a dual national. There were more reported Iranian strikes last week.

The IRGC claims that the groups being targeted are behind weapons smuggling operations, as well as sabotage actions inside Iran, which aim to destabilize the country. 

Like with the last major cross-border attack, the US Central Command condemned the fresh Iranian military aggression, saying the strikes violate Iraq’s sovereignty and “jeopardize the hard-fought security and stability of Iraq and the Middle East.”

⚡️Consequences of Iranian strike in Northeastern Iraq pic.twitter.com/CLYTNoK3K5

— War Monitor (@WarMonitors) November 20, 2022

Tehran has meanwhile been demanding that Baghdad take concrete action to disarm the outlawed Kurdish militia groups while holding open the possibility of more cross-border strikes.

A Monday Iranian foreign ministry statement said its military had no choice to act to “protect its borders and security of its citizens based on its legal rights.”

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

Below is my column in The Hill on the appointment of a special counsel to investigate former President Donald Trump. All of the three main players – Trump, Attorney General Merrick Garland, and Special Counsel Jack Smith – will face immediate challenges in the legal arm’s race unfolding in Washington.

Here is the column:

There seemed to be enough torpedoes in the water in Washington this week that you could walk across the Potomac without getting your feet wet. On Capitol Hill, the new House Republican majority announced a series of subpoena-ready investigations of President Biden and administration officials. At the Justice Department, Attorney General Merrick Garland appointed a special counsel to investigate former President Trump for possible crimes ranging from the 2020 election to the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol riot to the Mar-a-Lago documents controversy.

It was all reminiscent of the movie “The Lord of War,” in which a fictional arms dealer warns that “the problem with gunrunners going to war is that there is no shortage of ammunition.” The same appears true of rival government officials having no shortage of subpoenas.

In this atmosphere of politically and mutually assured destruction, there are some immediate threats for the three main combatants:

Attorney General Garland

When he announced the appointment of Jack Smith to investigate Trump, Garland explained that “based on recent developments, including the former president’s announcement that he is a candidate for president in the next election, and the sitting president’s stated intention to be a candidate as well, I have concluded that it is in the public interest to appoint a special counsel.”

In making that case for a Trump special counsel, however, Garland may have made a case against himself for refusing to appoint a Biden special counsel in the Hunter Biden scandal. Garland’s department is investigating potential wrongdoing that could involve the other referenced candidate, President Biden, in the Hunter Biden matter. That investigation should be looking at numerous alleged references to the president using code names such as “the Big Guy” in the context of receiving percentages on foreign deals and other perks. Yet Garland has refused to appoint a special counsel in an investigation that not only could prove highly embarrassing to the president but, in the view of some of us, could implicate him as well.

Congressional Democrats repeatedly voted to block an investigation of this alleged multimillion-dollar influence peddling by the Biden family. House Republicans are now poised to look into these foreign deals — and how the Justice Department may have stymied or slowed any investigation before the 2020 election.

While the special counsel appointment helps insulate Garland from claims about the use of his department for political purposes on any Trump charges, he may soon face new challenges, including possible contempt referrals if Biden officials or Democrats refuse to supply information or testimony to Republican House investigators. Garland has sharply departed from prior cases in which the Justice Department largely refused to prosecute such contempt referrals; he has been very active in pursuing Trump officials who failed to cooperate with Congress. He now may be asked to show the same willingness to pursue those who obstruct or defy House Republican investigations.

Former President Trump

The greatest threat clearly faces Trump himself. His announced intention to run for the presidency in 2024 may have expedited the appointment of a special counsel. With the expectation of a possible indictment, Trump may have wanted to frame the optics as a vendetta against a declared Biden opponent before his administration took any major step toward prosecution. Instead, it likely sealed the need for a special counsel.

Trump already has declared the move to be political and says he will not “partake in” an investigation.

A special counsel could make fast work of controversies such as Mar-a-Lago, which have been investigated for months and already have secured grand jury testimony. For Trump, having a special counsel in control, rather than an attorney general, may prove even more precarious. Some of the potential charges for unlawful transfer or possession of classified material historically have resulted in relatively minor charges. If this investigation produces the basis for an obstruction charge or misdemeanors, Garland might have been inclined to use his discretion to forgo prosecution and avoid political disruption or questions of bias. In contrast, after the expense and effort to create his office, a special counsel may feel less inclined to overlook a chargeable offense. The majority of people charged by former special counsel Robert Mueller faced relatively minor charges and served short terms in jail.

Trump also will face practical barriers. Prosecutors usually start with the low-hanging fruit in an organization, to coerce people to cooperate by threatening criminal charges. On issues such as obstruction, Trump did not allegedly act alone; there were staff and lawyers who made what the FBI claims were knowingly false or misleading representations. Those individuals must now be viewed by Trump’s counsel as having potential conflicts of interest, including his former counsel. The only way to avoid conflicts or vulnerabilities is to assemble a largely new staff that was not involved in either the Jan. 6 or Mar-a-Lago episodes.

That is the difference between “partaking” in a personal excursion and a criminal investigation: The latter does not depend on your participation.

Special Counsel Smith

Smith faces the unenviable task of investigating a presidential candidate less than two years before the election. Given the advanced stage of prior investigations, he could bring charges before Sept. 5, 2024 (or roughly 60 days before the election under Justice Department guidelines for election year filings). It is unlikely, however, that a charge against Trump could be tried in that time.

However, Smith’s first test will be to avoid the initial mistakes of a predecessor, Mueller.

Like Smith, Mueller was considered a natural choice as special counsel, given his extensive experience as a career prosecutor. However, Mueller’s investigation was undermined by his selection of a team — starting with his top aide, Andrew Weissmann, a controversial prosecutor who was accused of political bias. The investigation was further undermined by FBI personnel, including Special Agent Peter Strzok, who was later removed from the team and fired by the Justice Department; Strzok has since filed a wrongful termination lawsuit.

Smith can avoid tripping a similar explosive wire by selecting a team that is defined by its prior professional expertise, not its prior political views or associations.

He also needs to be wary of creative avenues to indict Trump. Smith was part of the prosecution team that convicted former Virginia Governor Bob McDonnell (R) on federal corruption charges in 2014. The Supreme Court unanimously overturned that conviction as having stretched the law beyond its breaking point. If Smith is going to be the first prosecutor to indict a former president, he needs to do so with unimpeachable evidence of an unchallengeable crime.

Only one thing is certain in any of this: It will not end well.

With both sides loading up staff and subpoenas, the start of the 2024 campaign season has all of the makings of an utter bloodletting. There will be ample support for both sides to fulfill their respective narratives — and no shortage of legal weapons — in this political war of attrition.

For all those wondering how it is possible that nobody, not a single regulator acted out on the countless red warning signs (with even CME CEO Terry Duffy issuing an explicit warning to Congress that SBF was a fraud months ago) amid the fawning and fellating media and the countless bribed politicians, we may have an answer: according to Bloomberg, long before Sam Bankman-Fried’s FTX cryptocurrency empire imploded, “it already was on the radar of federal prosecutors in Manhattan.”

According to Bloomberg sources “familiar with the investigation”, the US Attorney’s Office for the Southern District of New York, led by Damian Williams, spent several months working on a sweeping examination of crypto currency platforms with US and offshore arms and had started poking into FTX’s massive exchange operations.

The focus of the probe was on compliance with the Bank Secrecy Act which requires financial institutions take steps to prevent money laundering and terrorism financing, and which has been used by authorities to go after crypto platforms that allegedly falsely claimed that they don’t serve US customers. The Bahamas-based FTX, which operated one of the world’s largest international crypto exchanges as well as a separate and much more limited venue called FTX US that said it complies with the act.

Now just because the NYSD AG was probing FTX doesn’t mean they actually found anything – after all, as we all know, the “effective altruist” and generous Democratic donor that is SBF was protected by powerful political interests – and as BBG adds, it’s unclear whether prosecutors in Manhattan reached any conclusion in their probe before FTX collapsed. That put the federal investigation into a new trajectory, the people said.

If only the Attorney’s Office – headed since October 2021 by Democrat Damian Williams – had done its job better and faster, much of the ensuing fallout may have been contained.

Some more details on this particular toothless office:

Long known for its prowess in tackling complex financial crimes, the US attorney’s office in Manhattan has handled the lion’s share of the government’s crypto cases since digital assets came into vogue a decade ago. That includes a half-dozen in the year through October, roughly double the number brought by other Justice Department offices in that period, an analysis of federal dockets shows.

The office benefits from longstanding working relationships between its prosecutors and FBI and SEC investigators, as well as its location in the nation’s largest financial hub. Funds passing through Wall Street, or an email exchange with one of the city’s many firms, can help give prosecutors there an edge in claiming jurisdiction.

Prosecutors and regulators including the Securities and Exchange Commission and Commodity Futures Trading Commission are now seeking help from new FTX Chief Executive Officer John J. Ray III, who took over as part of its bankruptcy proceeding and is navigating what he described as “a complete absence of trustworthy financial information.”

As we reported last week, Ray told the bankruptcy court in a filing that his team had found loans of more than $1 billion made by Alameda to Bankman-Fried and other executives. The filing also alleged software was used to conceal the use of customer funds. Whether any such conduct broke laws will be left to prosecutors. So far, they haven’t accused anyone of wrongdoing.

While Southern District prosecutors did exactly nothing to contain the FTX fraud enabled by both the fawning media and bribed politicians, that’s not to say they have never acted: according to Bloomberg, they previously invoked the Bank Secrecy Act in 2020 against senior employees at the Seychelles-based crypto platform BitMEX, which allegedly allowed more than $209 million of transactions with known dark-net markets. BitMEX argued it didn’t need anti-money laundering or know-your-customer policies in part because it didn’t have US customers and wasn’t registered in the US. But clients circumvented the platform’s attempts to block IP addresses in the US, according to a government sentencing memo filed in federal court.

As attention now turns to FTX, the loss of customer funds at the exchange means authorities will examine whether the exchange misled clients about how their assets would be held, former prosecutors said. To prove wire fraud, investigators would have to show someone at FTX did so for gain using a wire, such as a phone call, email or text. Which they did, of course. Repeatedly.

Separately, the FTX bankruptcy case will aid prosecutors in figuring out what documents exist to subpoena. Investigators will also seek communications between employees, whether that’s via email, Slack, Signal or WhatsApp, as well as testimony from witnesses, said Anand Sithian, a former federal prosecutor now at Crowell & Moring.

“What is going to be hard when you issue a subpoena to financial institutions it can take 30, 60, 90, days to process,” Sithian said. “Here if you send a subpoena, I don’t know that the company, FTX, would have that ready. They might need to recreate that.”

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

Please consider these COP 27 Closing Statements by the Secretary-General.

• COP27 took place not far from Mount Sinai, a site that is central to many faiths and to the story of Moses, or Musa. It’s fitting. Climate chaos is a crisis of biblical proportions. 

• Instead of a burning bush, we face a burning planet.  

• Justice for those on the frontlines who did so little to cause the crisis – including the victims of the recent floods in Pakistan that inundated one-third of the country.   

• I welcome the decision to establish a loss and damage fund and to operationalize it in the coming period. 

• But let’s be clear. Our planet is still in the emergency room. 

• Unlike the stories from the Sinai peninsula, we cannot wait for a miracle from a mountaintop.  

• We can and must win this battle for our lives.  

Team Biden in Action

On November 12, president Biden’s climate ambassador, John Kerry, made this statement:

“It’s a well-known fact that the United States and many other countries will not establish…some sort of legal structure that is tied to compensation or liability. That’s just not happening.“

Guess What Happened

In case you are wondering about the Secretary-General’s statement regarding a loss and damage fund, John Kerry signed up for it at the conference.

Please note Biden Signs Up for Climate Reparations

The use of climate policy to soak Americans keeps getting worse, and the United Nation’s climate conference in Egypt ended this weekend with agreement on a new fund to pay reparations to poor countries. Welcome to the latest climate shakedown.

Poor countries have long sought to force wealthy countries to pay for the “loss and damage” they suffer from natural disasters that are supposedly climate-related. This is separate from the $100 billion a year that rich countries have promised to help poor countries reduce emissions and adapt to climate change.

Wealthy countries will now set up a fund to cover climate damage for the least developed countries—i.e., not China or middle-income nations. This will be financed from “a broad donor base” and “mosaic of solutions,” such as international development banks and taxes on aviation, shipping and fossil fuels.

In return for climate reparations, Mr. Kerry tried to force an agreement to phase down “unabated” fossil fuels. Low-income countries understandably refused since doing so would consign their citizens to poverty. The Biden climate agenda has increased energy prices in the U.S., and the climate lobby doesn’t mind if this misery spreads around the world.

Sketchy Details

Details aren’t just sketchy, they’re nonexistent. Amusingly Biden promises no new liabilities for the US. 

Somehow this is more magic money from somewhere and no one has to pay a dime. 

This is why there are no details now. The magic will be flushed out later after people have long forgotten the promise that it won’t cost anything. 

A Comment on the Hypocrisy 

800 private jets flew to Egypt to tell you to ride your bike to work. #COP27 pic.twitter.com/x2ondjyyqG

— Lynne McCarthy (@LynneMcCarthy) November 20, 2022

Meanwhile, the WSJ notes that China emits two-thirds more CO2 than Europe and the U.S. combined. Coal accounts for 60% of China’s power generation, and more new coal plants are set for approval through 2025 than the entire existing U.S. fleet. China says it needs more coal power for energy security and, unlike Europe and the U.S., it won’t commit climate suicide.

*  *  *

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A criminal investigation has been launched after a black SUV plowed into an Apple Store near Boston, killing one person and leaving 16 others injured, according to Boston 25 News.

Plymouth District Attorney Timothy Cruz said first responders arrived at the Apple Store in Hingham, a town outside of Boston, around 1045 ET and “found a gaping hole in the glass facade of the store, a black SUV that had come to a stop on the sales floor inside, and multiple people suffering from various injuries.” 

SUV plows into Apple Store near Boston, one killed, over a dozen injured. pic.twitter.com/eZy1IP4RIj

— Mike Sington (@MikeSington) November 21, 2022

Cruz said fourteen people were taken to South Shore Hospital, while two others were taken to Boston for treatment. He didn’t release the name of the person pronounced dead at the scene. 

“This investigation is active and ongoing,” Cruz said, calling the deadly crash “absolutely tragic” and “absolutely unthinkable.” He said the driver wasn’t hospitalized and is in police custody, adding charges have yet to be announced.  

The Hanover Fire Department, which responded to the Apple Store, posted this statement on Facebook: 

“Hanover C-1, Engine-4 & Ambulance-1 are responding on a 2nd alarm assignment to 94 Derby Street, the Apple Store, for the motor vehicle into the building with multiple injured and trapped.

“Hanover C-8 is also responding with the Plymouth County Tech Rescue Team for the technical rescue activation on scene.”

Witnesses told Boston 25′s Robert Goulston the crash “sounded like a bomb went off.” 

*Developing 

Via SchiffGold.com,

Silver demand is on pace to hit record levels in 2022, driven by new highs for physical investment, industrial demand, jewelry, and silverware production, according to the Silver Institute’s Interim Silver Market Review.

Global silver demand is projected to reach a new high of 1.21 billion ounces in 2022. That would be a 16% increase from 2021.

Institutional demand for silver has faced headwinds due to rising interest rates with Federal Reserve’s inflation fight. This has led to a decrease in silver ETF holdings. But demand for physical silver has been robust. Physical investment demand is on pace to jump by 18% to 329 million ounces this year. According to the Silver Institute, “Support has come from investor fears of high inflation, the Russia-Ukraine war, recessionary concerns, mistrust in government, and buying on price dips. The rise was boosted further by a (near-doubling) of Indian demand, a recovery from a slump last year, with investors often taking advantage of lower rupee prices.”

We’ve seen signs of this high demand in the rapidly decreasing levels of silver in COMEX vaults.

Industrial demand makes up more than 60% of silver usage each year. It is on track to set a new record of 539 million ounces in 2022. The push for green energy has helped drive industrial demand higher with more and more silver being used to produce solar panels. The electrification of vehicles is also boosting demand, along with the adoption of 5G technologies. According to the Silver Institute, demand in these emerging markets has helped silver overcome macroeconomic headwinds as the global economy has slowed.

Demand for silver jewelry and silverware is projected to surge by 29% and 72% respectively. Jewelry production will use about 235 million ounces and silverware fabrication will consume another 73 million ounces this year. What the Silver Institute describes as “an unprecedented rebound in Indian demand” is driving demand in these categories higher. “This has partly been driven by strong inventory replenishment ahead of the festive and wedding season, following heavy stock depletion in 2021.”

Silver mine output will only chart a small 1% increase in 2022. As a result, the global silver market is forecast to record a second consecutive deficit in 2022. The 194 million ounce shortfall will represent a multi-decade high and will likely come in at four times the level seen in 2021.

With silver prices still relatively low, this is a great time to add silver to your investment portfolio. According to research by Oxford Economics, investors would benefit from an average of 4 to 6 percent silver allocation within a diversified portfolio. This is far below the average investor’s exposure to silver.

There are signs that silver is significantly undervalued. The silver-gold ratio is currently over 83-1. That means it takes over 83 ounces of silver to buy an ounce of gold. To put that into perspective, the average in the modern era has been between 40:1 and 50:1. Historically, the ratio has always returned to that mean. And when it does, it does it with a vengeance. The ratio fell to 30-1 in 2011 and below 20-1 in 1979.

Historically, when the spread gets this wide, silver doesn’t just outperform gold, it goes on a massive run in a short period of time. Since January 2000, this has happened four times. As this chart shows, the snapback is swift and strong.

And as the Silver Institute projections show, The supply and demand dynamics also look good for silver even with a looming recession.

Silver Is On Sale, But It Won’t Be For Long!

The fundamental backdrop has never been stronger. The underlying data indicates that the snapback will come soon and potentially play out very quickly. This is a great opportunity to add the diversifying power of silver to your portfolio.

CME Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Terry Duffy has been the talk of social media today, after a podcast appearance with CNBC’s Guy Adami and Dan Nathan began making its rounds on Monday morning.

Among other topics discussed on the podcast was Duffy recalling his first meeting with Sam Bankman-Fried, which took place in March 2022. 

Ole’ Terry’s senses from days of being in the pit are still sharp as can be. He pegged FTX for a fraud before the company blew up – and told Bankman-Fried as much to his face, as he called on the podcast. 

Duffy says he was approached by SBF at a conference who told him he wanted to compete with CME in crypto. Instead, Duffy says he offered to give SBF his crypto franchises in exchange for working together. “Let me be your risk manager. I’ll clear it so that I know it’s done properly,” Duffy says he told SBF. 

When SBF asked if Duffy would deploy his model, Duffy told him “Your model is crap. Why would I deploy a model that introduces risk into the system? Of course I’m not going to deploy your model!”

“You’re a fraud. You’re an absolute fraud.” – @CMEGroup CEO Terry Duffy recalls his encounter with Sam Bankman-Fried last March.

Listen to the whole interview with Terry, @RiskReversal & @GuyAdami: https://t.co/oMUrL1U90u pic.twitter.com/qZcojWQquU

— On The Tape Podcast (@OnTheTapePod) November 19, 2022

From there, SBF “flat out turned me down”, Duffy said. 

“Right away I said to him ‘You’re a fraud. you’re an absolute fraud’,” Duffy recants telling SBF. “You’re supposedly worth $26 billion and are altruistic? How come there’s not a $10 billion donation going to someone right this moment in time?”

“My net worth doesn’t start with any B’s and I’ll give you 3-to-1 that I have more money than you,” Duffy said to SBF. “I’ll give you 4-to-1 that I have more money in my right pocket than your net worth.”

And the recollection of events gels with media at the time. Later on in the spring, Duffy took to Congress and specifically made claims that “FTX [had] set aside insufficient financial resources to back its proposed direct clearing model for crypto derivatives”.

“I got berated” at Congress when blowing the whistle on FTX, Duffy says. 

You can watch the whole congressional hearing below, but we’ve cued it up to a heated exchange with Congressman Ro Khanna (pointed out by @ardalyonovich on Twitter) who vehemently defends FTX after Duffy claimed that FTX had “zero capital requirements for participants”. 

“I think that’s, on its face, a false statement,” Khanna barks at Duffy.

Khanna then continues to try and lecture Duffy: “Sir I want you to, after this, submit something that is accurate recognizing you’re testimony to Congress, you don’t know much about cryptocurrencies, you’re opining about cryptocurrencies and you’re giving false statements to Congress,” he continues. 

Penn professor and forensic accounting expert Francine McKenna summed it up perfectly when she commented on Twitter: “Duffy went to Congress and told them FTX was a bankrupt business model and he was ignored just like he was ignored when he said Corzine knew he had used customer funds and knew where the missing $1.6 bullion was.

Just one trading day after some of the biggest Fed hawks sparked a contained selloff across risk assets, moments ago one of the Fed’s increasingly vocal doves, Mary Daly, took the mic at the Orange Country Business Council where she is speaking live now (Youtube link) and helped push stocks to session highs after she said that the market is (erroneously) pricing in much tighter financial conditions (she said that markets are priced like Fed funds is at 6% not 4.0% where it is currently), and again warned that the Fed must be mindful of risk of tightening policy too mich.

• DALY: REAL-WORLD IMPACT OF FED RATE HIKES LIKELY HIGHER THAN WHAT CURRENT RATE TARGET IMPLIES
• DALY: FINANCIAL MARKETS PRICED LIKE FED FUNDS RATE AT 6%, NOT 3.75%-4.00%
• DALY: FED MUST BE MINDFUL OF RISK OF TIGHTENING POLICY TOO MUCH
• DALY: FED HAS MORE WORK TO DO WHEN IT COMES TO RATE HIKES
• DALY: FED POLICY IS IN MODESTLY RESTRICTIVE TERRITORY
• DALY: LATEST INFLATION DATA MOVING IN RIGHT DIRECTION
• DALY: FED MUST GET THE JOB DONE ON RATE HIKES BUT NOT OVERDO IT

Her comments were enough to end the bleeding in stocks and help push them back near session highs.

Follow her comments here: