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DeSantis Leads Trump By Big Margins In Key Primary States

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DeSantis Leads Trump By Big Margins In Key Primary States

New post-midterm election polls find that Republicans in critical primary states favor Florida Governor Ron DeSantis over former President Donald Trump by substantial margins. 

Polling conducted Nov. 11-13 by WPAi Intelligence on behalf of the conservative Club for Growth Action found that DeSantis is the preferred candidate of 48% of Iowa’s likely Republican voters, compared to just 37% for Trump. The margin is even wider in New Hampshire: Republicans prefer DeSantis by a 52% to 37% margin

In what must be a particular humiliation for Trump, he trails DeSantis in their shared home state of Florida by 26 points — 56% to 30%.  

Separately, a post-midterm poll commissioned by the Texas Republican Party found 43% of Texas Republicans prefer DeSantis, compared to 32% who back Trump. 

Not only are those leads substantial, but they also show DeSantis’ position has strengthened in the wake of his resounding reelection victory in Florida, where he not only defeated Charlie Crist by a whopping 19 percentage points, but also helped lead Republicans to a statewide thrashing of Democrats — to include turning majority-Hispanic Miami-Dade county red. In 2018, he lost the county by 20 points. 

County-level results in Florida’s 2024 gubernatorial contest (via NBC)

In August polls conducted for Club For Growth Action, Trump led DeSantis in Iowa, was tied with him in New Hampshire, and trailed by just seven points in Florida. Now, he finds himself well behind in all three. 

Trump tumbled fast in Texas too. Just last month, the former president easily led among Lone Star State Republicans, 46% to 29%, but is now down 11 points.  

It remains to be seen if some of the glow of DeSantis’ reelection will prove temporary, or if Trump is able to boost his own prospects by attacking his undeclared rival.  

In the days leading up to the midterm elections, Trump called the popular Florida governor “Ron DeSanctimonious.” After the election, Trump threatened him, hinting he would reveal “things about him that won’t be very flattering…I know more about him than anybody, other than, perhaps, his wife.”

Ron and Casey DeSantis (Office of Florida Governor, via People)

Likely referring to Trump’s jabs at DeSantis, Club for Growth president David McIntosh said:

Our polling shows that Republican primary voters recognize Trump’s insults against Republicans as hollow and counterproductive, and it’s taking a significant toll on his support.”

The polls themselves may be a sign that Trump is also in growing disfavor with Republican Party leadership and allied organizations. Politico characterized the very release of the Club For Growth Action poll as a shot across Trump’s bow: 

“The conservative Club for Growth is sending a warning shot at former President Donald Trump on the eve of his expected 2024 campaign launch — and indicating it might back his chief potential rival, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.    …

The release of the memo represents the latest twist in a complicated relationship between the Club for Growth and Trump. After savaging Trump during the 2016 campaign, the conservative group became an ally during his White House tenure.

Tensions came to a boil in this year’s Ohio Senate primary, as Club for Growth backed Josh Mandel while Trump backed J.D. Vance. Politico reports that, as things deteriorated, Trump sent a pointed message to Club For Growth’s McIntosh: “Go fuck yourself.” Trump’s candidate won the primary and the general election. 

Tyler Durden
Thu, 11/17/2022 – 20:40

Wealth Of China’s Richest Plunges By 39% In 2022

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Wealth Of China’s Richest Plunges By 39% In 2022

Authored by Nie Law, Shan Lam, and Harry McKenny via The Epoch Times,

Forbes recently released China’s Richest 2022.  Among the top 100 richest people, 79 of them saw their wealth fall.

The biggest wealth drop since Forbes’ records began with a drop of 39 percent – from $1.48 trillion in 2021 to $907.1 billion in 2022.

At the same time, the “Hurun China Rich List” also shows that the number of Chinese billionaires in 2022 has the biggest drop within the past 24 years.

The following information is from the Forbes report dated Nov. 11, 2022, and the previous year’s totals are dated Nov. 17, 2021:

  1. Nongfu Spring, Zhong Shanshan, the richest people in mainland China, wealth dropped five percent to $62.3 billion from $65.9 billion in 2021.

  2. ByteDance, Zhang Yiming, with a fortune of $49.5 billion, down $9.9 billion from $59.4 in 2021.

  3. CATL, Zeng Yuqun, battery manufacturer, with a fortune of $28.9 billion, down 43 percent from last year’s $50.8 billion.

  4. Tencent, Ma Huateng, with a fortune of $23.4 billion, plummeted $25.7 billion (nearly 50 percent) from 2021.

  5. Alibaba, Jack Ma, with a fortune of $20.3 billion.

  6. SF Holding, Wang Wei, $19.6 billion.

  7. Midea Group, He Chunjian, $18.8 billion.

  8. NetEase Inc., Ding Lei, $19.7 billion.

  9. Pinduoduo, Huang Zheng, $18.6 billion.

  10. Muyuan Shares, Qin Yinglin, $18.4 billion.

Xiao mi, the founder Leijun dropped 50 percent of wealth from US$17.9 billion in 2021 to US$7.6 billion in 2022, ranked 37th this year

JD.com, the chairperson Liu Qiangdong, fell more than 50 percent to $8.3 billion from $17.6 billion, ranked 32nd this year.

Worst Drop from Real Estate

The 82 percent biggest drop in net worth from real estate tycoon Yang Huiyan, Country Garden (Property Development), from $27.8 billion to $4.91 billion.

China Evergrande, the founder Xu Jiayin and many other real estate billionaires even failed to make the list this time.

Biggest Loss of Billionaires in 24 Years

The 2022 Hurun China Rich List released by the Hurun Research Institute on Nov. 8 shows that the drop in the number of Chinese billionaires this year is the largest within the past 24 years.

A total of 1,305 entrepreneurs in China have wealth of more than 5 billion yuan (approx. US$0.71 billion) this year, a decrease of 160 people or 11 percent from last year, and their total wealth also fell 18 percent from last year to 24.5 trillion yuan (US$3.5 trillion).

Only 411 people on the list saw their wealth increase compared to last year.  1,187 people shrank or stayed more or less the same compared to last year, while 293 people even fell off the list this time round.

On the list, 1,121 billionaires live in mainland China, 90 in Hong Kong, 67 in Macau and Taiwan, and the remaining 27 live outside China.

Among the 293 who fell out of the list, the real estate sector suffered the most, accounting for 14 percent of the loss, followed by the health industry, accounting for another 12 percent.  When it comes to locations, the city with the largest number of dropouts is Shanghai at 15 percent, followed by Beijing at 11.

Traditional Industries Overtake Information Technology

Rupert Hoogewerf (also known by his Chinese alias as Hu Run), chairperson of the Hurun Report, described that traditional industries had risen significantly this year.

It is surprising to see that in an era of rapid technological development, China’s richest man is Zhong Shanshan of Nongfu Spring, a mineral water company, whose wealth is almost the sum of  Zhang Yiming from ByteDance in 2nd place, and Zeng Yuqun, the 3rd ranked owner of an electric vehicle battery manufacturer. 

Li Ka-shing surpassed Ma Huateng of Tencent for the first time in five years.

Pig farmer Qin Yinglin, overtook Ma Yun of Alibaba for the first time.

‘Global Economic Recession and Inflation Will Persist’

Xie Tian, ​​a professor at the Aiken School of Business at the University of South Carolina in the U.S., told the Epoch Times on Nov. 12 that the wealth of the Chinese riches in high-tech and Internet-related companies has declined, while those in traditional real industries such as mineral water and pig farming are raising. This is a trend that can be seen globally.

The overall U.S. stock market has fallen 30 percent to 40 percent this year, with technology stocks bearing most of the brunt, leading to many e-commerce and Internet giants, such as Twitter and Facebook, laying off workers.

Xie analyzed that the decline of U.S. technology stocks is the result of inflation and economic downturn in the entire world, and such a decline of U.S. technology stocks also has a negative impact on the shares of China’s tech companies. China’s technology stocks had long been criticized as overpriced and frothy. Coupled with the current economic recession in China, it is no surprise it has a tremendous negative impact on the wealth of mainland China’s richest. When stocks in high-tech, Internet, e-commerce, and other industries decline, in contrast, stocks in more traditional primitive industries such as mineral water and pig farming will go up.

Xie also speculates that this trend will continue for at least the next half to one year because the global economic recession and inflation problems will persist in 2023, casting a similar trend in next year’s rich list.

The Economic Indicator

Political and economic commentator Simon Li Sai-man (pen name) pointed out to the Epoch Times on Nov. 12 that it is not just the wealth of the richest in China that has fallen. The wealth of Tesla CEO Elon Musk, Amazon founder Jeff Bezos and other wealthy guys has also shrunk. The strong dollar itself is indeed causing a certain impact on the global economy.

Simon Li also believes that how much wealth the richest have is not the best indicator of the region’s economy.  When the economy turns bad, it is the average person who will bear most of the brunt. To analyze the economic situation of a region, we should better refer to indicators such as the employment rate of students leaving college.

Tyler Durden
Thu, 11/17/2022 – 20:20

Dwindling US Cattle Herd Implies Supermarket Beef Prices May Rise Even More

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Dwindling US Cattle Herd Implies Supermarket Beef Prices May Rise Even More

The US Department of Agriculture will release a report Friday that might show ranchers sent the fewest cattle to feedlots in a decade. Cattle generally spend several months at feedlots while they grow and gain body fat and muscle before being transported to a meat packing plant. Fewer cattle at feedlots may only imply dwindling beef supplies and high prices at the supermarket.

Bloomberg’s average estimate for cattle placed into feedlots in October is about 2.17 million, a decline from nearly 2.5 million in early 2019 (right before the virus pandemic), and the lowest level since 2012. 

Source: Bloomberg 

“That’s a reversal from recent months, when ranchers faced with dwindling supplies and sharply higher prices for hay moved more animals off the ranch, helping to keep meat supplies relatively plentiful. Fewer animals moving closer to slaughter would signal herds are shrinking, which will likely mean higher meat prices down the road,” Bloomberg said.

… and meat is becoming a luxury: ground beef prices per pound at the supermarket are up 25% since early 2020 and more than 134% since 2009.

But don’t worry because supermarkets are finalizing plans to stock insects on their shelves and market them as an affordable food source for people struggling to purchase groceries. 

Just remember, who wants you to eat bugs… 

Or this…

Besides beef, food inflation remains at the highest levels since the late 1970s, crushing the pocketbooks of Americans as they drain their savings and rack up credit card debt just to buy essentials. 

Perhaps readers should ignore WEF’s messaging to eat bugs, as well as Bloomberg’s op-ed writer that advised people to eat lentils — how about venturing into the great outdoors and becoming a hunter. That could be your ticket to inexpensive grass-fed venison. 

Tyler Durden
Thu, 11/17/2022 – 20:00

Indian Gold Demand Continued Strong In October

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Indian Gold Demand Continued Strong In October

Via SchiffGold.com,

Festival and wedding buying boosted gold demand in India last month and the outlook looks strong moving forward.

The arrival of festivals and the wedding season coincide with a price pullback last month. This helped drive Indian retail demand higher according to the World Gold Council, pushing the local market back into a premium for most of the month.

October retail demand remained strong with the onset of festivals and weddings. The festivals of Dussehra and Dhanteras sparked fresh demand for physical gold towards the end of the month. … With a stable gold price before this date, demand received a boost from sales of jewelry (for weddings and everyday wear) as well as bar and coin purchases.

Moving forward, the WGC projects demand will remain healthy, supported by the ongoing wedding season. Growing consumer confidence in urban areas could also boost gold demand. But there could be some headwinds in rural areas due to lower crop production.

Considering the strong start to Q4 and the interplay between urban and rural demand in the months ahead, we expect overall retail demand to remain above pre-pandemic levels in the quarter, although possibly below that of 2021, at which time there was a huge boost from pent-up demand post-2020-2021 lockdowns.”

Investors also helped drive Indian gold demand higher. Indian gold ETFs charted inflows of  0.7 tons in October.  It was the second straight month Indian ETFs charted increases in gold holdings. This bucked the global trend of ETF outflows. According to the World Gold Council, total Indian ETG gold holdings to 39.2 tons by the end of October. Overall, Indian gold ETFs have seen small but meaningful net inflows of 1.6 tons year-to-date.

The Reserve Bank of India also bought more gold in October, increasing its holdings by another ton. According to the latest available data, the RBI’s total gold reserves now stand at 786.3 tons.

India ranks as the ninth largest gold-holding country in the world. Since resuming buying in late 2017, the Reserve Bank of India has purchased over 200 tons of gold. In August 2020, there were reports that the RBI was considering significantly raising its gold reserves.

India ranks as the second-largest gold-consuming country in the world, second only behind China, but the gold market has languished over the last couple of years. The pandemic crushed demand, particularly for gold jewelry. But even before the pandemic, record-high gold prices in rupee terms and government policy put a drag on the gold market. There were signs of a turnaround late last year and it continued through the first quarter of 2022. The second COVID-19 wave stalled the gold market’s recovery in India early in Q2, but it regained steam later in the year with strong retail demand and a surge in gold imports.

Indians traditionally buy and hold gold. Collectively, Indian households own an estimated 25,000 tons of gold and that number may be higher given the large black market in the country. The yellow metal is interwoven into the country’s marriage ceremonies and cultural rites. Indians also value gold as a store of wealth, especially in poor rural regions. Two-thirds of India’s gold demand comes from these areas, where most people live outside the official tax system.

Gold is not just a luxury in India. Even poor people buy gold in the Asian nation. According to an ICE 360 survey in 2018, one in every two households in India purchased gold within the last five years. Overall, 87% of households in the country own some amount of the yellow metal. Even households at the lowest income levels in India own some gold. According to the survey, more than 75% of families in the bottom 10% had managed to buy gold.

Gold served as a lifeline for many Indians during the pandemic.

The Indian government’s response to the first wave of COVID-19 ravaged the economy. As a result, many banks were reluctant to extend credit due to fear of defaults. In this tight lending environment, many Indians used their stashes of gold to secure loans. As Indians battled the second wave of COVID-19, many Indians sold gold outright in order to make ends meet.

Indians understand that gold tends to store value and that ultimately gold is money. If they have gold, they know they will be able to get the goods and services they need – even in the event of an economic meltdown. And while westerners may not embrace the cultural and religious aspects of the Indian love affair with gold, the economic reasons for their devotion to the yellow metal are every bit as applicable in places like the US.

Tyler Durden
Thu, 11/17/2022 – 19:40

“Red Cup Rebellion” To Disrupt Starbucks Stores As Baristas Go On Strike

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“Red Cup Rebellion” To Disrupt Starbucks Stores As Baristas Go On Strike

Starbucks workers at more than 100 US stores plan to walk off the job Thursday in a labor action during one of the coffee giant’s busiest days of the year, WaPo reported. 

More than 2,000 members of the Starbucks Workers Union (SWU) in 25 states, covering 112 stores across the country, will be participating in what is called the “Red Cup Rebellion.”

The strike coincides with Starbucks’ annual Red Cup Day when free reusable cups are given to customers who purchase holiday drinks. Workers have said this day is one of the busiest of the year. 

In an Instagram post, SWU said:

Starbucks Workers United is conducting a nationwide ULP Strike over the company’s refusal to bargain in good faith. Workers across this campaign are also calling for the company to fully staff our union stores, because we know that Short Staffing = Venti Wait Times. Starbucks thinks they can drag their feet in bargaining, and we’re here to show them we rebel against their tactics and we mean business – by shutting down theirs.” 

SWU represents approximately 7,000 employees at hundreds of stores, but that’s only a tiny fraction compared to the chain’s 70,000 workforce.  

“We unionized to fix a lot of problems with a job we really like,” Josie Serrano, a barista in Long Beach, Calif., told WaPo. 

Workers seek higher pay, better working conditions, more consistent schedules, and higher staffing levels. 

According to union leaders, Starbucks has countered the unionization effort by shuttering some stores. 

Serrano continued: “It’s frustrating that the company that hired us doesn’t want to work to find a happy medium. … We want to send a strong signal to the company that, ‘Hey, this is not something we’re playing around with anymore.'”

Here’s a map of stores on strike. 

“This is the first time unionized baristas have banded together across the country to disrupt Starbucks’s operations,” WaPo said. 

Workers from one store in Buffalo, New York, were the first to unionize about one year ago. Momentum has spread nationwide (read: here & here) this year as more than 300 stores in three dozen states have had union elections. Unionized stores only make up 3% of the 9,000 company-operated US stores. 

Tyler Durden
Thu, 11/17/2022 – 18:40

The Mid-Terms: The Hunger Gaming Of America

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The Mid-Terms: The Hunger Gaming Of America

Authored by Tom Luongo via Gold, Goats, ‘n Guns blog,

I’ve had this post in the back of my mind for years now.  But this week’s mid-terms have brought it to the forefront of my thinking.  

There are very few movie experiences I’ve had in my life that rival the first time I watched The Hunger Games.  So much of my reaction was due to where I was at the time and how, frankly, shitty my life was then.

It ranks for me right up there with seeing the Death Star blow up (age 10), to being rendered speechless for an hour after watching Full Metal Jacket (age 19) to sobbing uncontrollably for 40 minutes after a midnight showing of Schindler’s List (age 25).

I watched The Hunger Games for the first time while flat on my back broke in late 2012 by myself in the post-midnight dark, metaphorically and physically.

For 2+ hours I sat there in horror clutching a pillow because all I could see was my daughter needing a protector and knowing at that moment I wasn’t that person.  

But as raw as my reaction to it was that night, it was the exact thing I needed at that moment to pick myself and keep going.

So, the cynics in the audience can forgive me if they think me an old softy for falling so hard for a piece of what I can honestly look at as thinly-conceived allegory.

Sometimes timing is everything.  

When I put my economist’s hat back on, Suzanne Collins’ world is not well thought out.  It doesn’t hold up to deep scrutiny.  Most stories like this don’t and, honestly, they aren’t supposed to.

As a writer, however, I’m still bowled over with her daring to write the books in first-person, present tense. Between a story metaphorically so very true and this bit of technical prowess I have nothing but immense respect, one professional to another.

But as allegory, especially political allegory, The Hunger Games is uniquely powerful, addressing the fundamental evil of our society using our children as emotional blackmail to coerce our compliance to a system that is truly monstrous.

And this brings me to the mid-term elections.

This is our biannual Hunger Games and we all volunteer to be Tributes thinking our votes can change the system, rather than simply reinforce it by participating, even if only vicariously.

Now that the steal is in full swing and the Senate falling to the Democrats, they will run the table on their full agenda — end the filibuster, pack the court, UBI, Climate Change, on-demand abortions of 7-day old babies and gun control.

But the steal, which is real, is also equally supported by a broken and traumatized population so gaslit into believing things which are simply not true that it is easy to mask what’s happening.

This gaslighting has rendered our threat detectors so hyperactive that they’ve been honed razor sharp.

And on this knife edge rests all of our political calculus.

We’re now dealing with people supporting the Democrats because “they can’t even…” bring themselves to vote for Republicans over the ungrounded fear that one step back from the Progressive madness of Critical Rage Theory and/or pushing back against the normalization of child sexualization is tantamount to embracing Nazism.

But, sadly, this is where we are.

To the true believers, we still haven’t gone far enough.

But, they aren’t enough to move the needle as far as it did to give the Democrats a chance this election cycle.

What should scare you more is the ones in the middle, the so-called independents. Their fear has them cowed into abdicating their civil responsibility by prioritizing decadence over protecting their children.

In an environment this stressful too many have chosen fear of backsliding even an inch because that may lead to an over-correction.

The fear over Roe v. Wade going away has too many people immediately thinking all abortions will be banned everywhere, when that’s simply not happened nor will it.

Their arguments have devolved into allowing drag queens to twerk in a ball sack in front of eight-year-olds on the public dime lest one gay guy get harassed in a bar in rural Texas.

It is perverse in the extreme.

And that brings me back to The Hunger Games.

The punishment for the violence of the past was an original sin never to be wiped clean. The outlying districts sacrifice their children to reinforce the Capitol’s control.

All capital is sucked into The Capitol draining the Districts of not only their vitality but their dignity through the ritualistic humiliation of thinking one of them has a chance at winning the annual event.

But the districts farthest from The Capitol never win. It’s a once-in-a-generation event. Here Collins gets the economics of fiat currency correct. Those closest to the money printing get the lion’s share of the spoils.

And this ritualistic theft fuels a contempt for the unwashed as real as the deaths in the arena and a sympathy for them as fake as the capital which supports their empty lives. The decadence of The Capitol is a reflection of the giant wealth vacuum the entire society is designed around.

Which brings me back to the mid-terms.

With each election cycle the disparity between the rural and the urban centers grows wider. But it’s not just a disparity of ‘capital’ or wealth. It’s a disparity of morality.

Those in the cities voting for more funds from the public till believe they are entitled, ultimately, to the Tribute from the rural areas. But, without those rural communities producing the food and energy there is no urban center.

There are no gay rights or abortion debates.

There’s just the jungle.

And that’s what really drives the fear of the urbanites who voted blue even though they tell themselves red is even worse. They know that letting their collective boot off the neck of those they’ve tyrannized through the fake power of a corrupt democratic process leads to a future without them.

So, they expect everyone to show up for work, pay Tribute to the Capitol and shut their deplorable mouth-breathing pie-holes while they deny they’re stealing your voice, a voice you aren’t entitled to because well, they’re your betters.

Or, at least, that’s what I keep hearing on Twitter.

And that’s why Katniss’ story is our story, the example of one girl strong enough to understand the rules of the game so intuitively that when their fake story of a fake romance for a fake catharsis to feed the emotional infancy of a bunch of entitled fakers plays out to its Shakespearean end…

… the Capitol blinks and the illusion of its control falls away. And everyone knows it, fueling an anger, long seething which soon catches fire. I warned everyone don’t turn the silent majority into The Fremen.

Now there’s no turning back from it happening.

And I don’t think the odds will be in favor of the real enemies of the people.

*  *  *

Join my Patreon if you don’t want to go hungry

Tyler Durden
Thu, 11/17/2022 – 18:20

Japan Weighs Raising Taxes On EVs With “Higher Output Motors”

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Japan Weighs Raising Taxes On EVs With “Higher Output Motors”

Just days ago, we reported that the UK was looking to raise more tax revenue from electric vehicles, shattering the years-long assumption that if you contributed to “helping the environment” by buying an EV, you’d be entitled to subsidies and tax credits.

Now, Japan appears to be following suit. 

The country’s internal affairs ministry is reportedly weighing whether or not to raise taxes on electric vehicles in order to make up for a shortfall in income from taxes on traditional gas powered cars, Bloomberg reported Thursday morning.

Currently, electric vehicle owners pay a flat fee of 25,000 yen per year to local governments, but the ministry is interested in potentially altering this framework for vehicles that have “higher output motors”, the report says. 

The ministry will reportedly ask the ruling coalition to “consider the change” for inclusion in the 2023 tax code, Bloomberg reports. Even then, the change could take several years to come into effect. 

Recall, we wrote back on November 5 that UK chancellor Jeremy Hunt is expected to put an electric vehicle excise tax in place by 2025-2026. 

This month’s Autumn Statement will include the measures, according to FT, who said people familiar with the road tax is part of a larger plan to address a fall in motoring tax revenues caused by the shift to EVs, which leave out fuel-related taxes.

Fuel duty raises about £35bn, but the Treasury has warned that a growing number of EVs on the road could cause this number to plunge by £2.1bn by 2026-27. Ergo, a new excise duty on EVs could take place by 2025-2026.

More than 1 million EVs on the roads of the UK could wind up being affected. As is the case globally, sales of EVs continue to accelerate, with about 15% of new vehicles sold so far this year moving away from traditional ICE power. 

How soon before the U.S. follows suit? 

Tyler Durden
Thu, 11/17/2022 – 18:00

Democrats’ Mail-In Voting Strategy Outmaneuvered Republicans In Every Pennsylvania County

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Democrats’ Mail-In Voting Strategy Outmaneuvered Republicans In Every Pennsylvania County

Authored by Beth Brelje via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The Democrat strategy of using mail-in ballots to vote played a pivotal role in last week’s election results. Pennsylvania Republicans are talking amongst themselves about how to react in the next election. Republicans have two views: get rid of mail-in voting—which seems unlikely with more elected Democrats in power—or learn how Democrats got an avalanche of mail-in votes and employ the same strategy.

An election worker is seen as mail-in ballots are counted in Chester County, Pa., on Nov. 4, 2020. (Rachel Wisniewski/Reuters)

The Epoch Times asked the Pennsylvania GOP to discuss the 2022 results and its strategy regarding mail-in ballots in future elections, but it chose not to participate in this story. Pennsylvania Democrats were also asked to comment on their mail-in strategy but did not respond.

In stump speeches and on social media, Pennsylvania Democrats actively encouraged voters to vote by mail in the days before the election. Often supporters would tweet at a candidate that they just mailed in their ballot.

A look at the numbers behind the election show just how much Democrats relied on mail-in voting.

Democrats Asked for More Mail-in Ballots

According to the Pennsylvania Department of State, 1,439,579 voters requested mail-in ballots statewide. Of those, 986,540, or 69 percent, were registered Democrats, and 303,438, or 21 percent, were Republicans. The rest were independents.

In 60 of Pennsylvania’s 67 counties, 50 percent or more of the requested mail-in ballots were for Democrats. In all counties, less than half the mail-in ballot requests came from Republicans, and often far less. In 29 counties, 29 percent or fewer of the mail-in ballots requested went to Republicans.

When looking at individual counties, the disproportionate use of mail-in ballots by party is clear.

For example, in Philadelphia County, 165,980 mail-in ballots were requested, and of those, 86 percent went to Democrats and just 5 percent went to Republicans. That may not be surprising in a majority Democrat county like Philadelphia, which has 807,979 registered Democrats and just 120,949 registered Republicans, or in Democrat majority Allegheny County, which received 190,684 requests for mail-in ballots, 76 percent of which were Democrat and 15 percent were Republican.

Read more here…

Tyler Durden
Thu, 11/17/2022 – 17:40

Potential Nationwide US Rail Strike May Spark Chaos Ahead Of Christmas

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Potential Nationwide US Rail Strike May Spark Chaos Ahead Of Christmas

Remember in September when the country was on the brink of a nationwide rail strike that almost froze critical transportation networks? 

A similar scenario could be nearing as workers of major freight rail companies have yet to settle on a new contract. 

Twelve rail unions representing 115,000 workers must ratify a new contract to prevent an economically devastating strike by early December. If one union disagrees, all other unions must honor the labor action. 

So far, seven unions have voted to ratify the tentative agreement. Three other unions representing 60,000 workers have voted it down. And two of the largest unions, representing 60,000 locomotive engineers and train conductors, are voting on the deal. 

CNBC’s Lori Ann LaRocco said if the Transportation Division of the International Association of Sheet Metal, Air, Rail, and Transportation Workers (SMART-TD) and the Brotherhood of Locomotive Engineers and Trainmen (BLET), the two largest unions, “do not ratify the deal — they could start striking December 9th — following a mandatory cooling off period.” 

“As of right now, even if these two unions vote to ratify the deal, we’re still looking at a strike — why? — because three unions have already voted not to ratify the deal,” LaRocco said. 

Here’s more from LaRocco on the possibility of rail strikes next month. She said the first key date for investors to watch is a vote on Monday. 

American consumers and manufacturers could be greatly impacted if there was a strike, and it would behoove members of Congress to step in if there’s an impending sign of labor action to prevent a new crisis. 

Tyler Durden
Thu, 11/17/2022 – 17:20

The Housing Boom Is Already Over – Get Ready For Even Higher Prices

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The Housing Boom Is Already Over – Get Ready For Even Higher Prices

Authored by Ryan McMaken via The Mises Institute,

As mortgage rates have risen this year, the demand for home purchases has fallen. That has spelled trouble for the home construction business. Homebuilder confidence dropped for the 10th straight month in October. The decline in builder sentiment reflects what economist Ian Shepherdson describes as “housing … in free fall. So far, most of the hit is in sales volumes, but prices are now falling too, and they have a long way to go.” The University of Michigan’s index of buying conditions for homes has fallen to the lowest level since 1982

Meanwhile, as of this week, mortgage demand for home purchases is “down 41% from a year ago and close to a seven-year low.” 

Naturally, this has been a sizable drag on the sale of newly constructed homes. According to the Census Bureau, new single-family houses sold in the US in September were down by 17 percent, year over year. They were also down by 10.9 percent from the previous month. Overall, sales of new homes are down 42 percent from the peak in August of 2020. 

Nor does it look like construction of multifamily housing is likely to make up for the decline in single-family. Although it might stand to reason that a decline in demand for purchase housing could lead to more building of rental housing, that doesn’t appear to be the case. According to Housing Wire, the “historic multifamily housing construction boom is already fading.” This is partly due to the fact that rising interest rates are not limited to mortgages for home buyers, and “those same interest rates pushing would-be homebuyers to the sidelines are also hurting [muiltifamily] developers.” 

It’s getting more expensive to borrow money up and down the food chain in housing, and that’s slowing down new construction of both for-purchase and for-purchase housing. 

For anyone concerned about the availability and affordability of housing, this is bad news. The US is currently in the midst of a housing shortage in the sense that builders aren’t building enough to keep up with population growth. And now, it appears that the short-lived boom in construction that launched in recent years will soon be over. 

The combination of the boom-bust cycle, coupled with mounting government regulations driving up the cost of construction will further drive up the cost of living for ordinary Americans. 

A Tale of Bust and Boom

New housing construction has always been sensitive to business cycles. Over the past 60 years, it’s not hard to find annual swings in construction growth ranging from negative twenty percent to positive twenty percent. 

Source: US Census Bureau.

Moreover, the negative swing on housing construction in the years surrounding the 2008 financial crises were especially severe. Construction began to head downward in 2006, with a drop of 12 percent. This was followed by three years of even bigger declines, culminating in a 38-percent drop in 2009. 

New housing construction did not return to the post-1990 average again until 2020. 

In other words, the end of the housing bubble in 2009 had an enormous impact on the industry and led to more than a decade of below-average home production. In spite of enormous amounts of new money creation, stimulus, and ultra-low interest rates, the home construction industry did not bounce back. As noted in National Public Radio earlier this year, the slow pace of new housing construction did not start with the current economic cycle but dates to an earlier easy-money-induced bubble:

[T]he roots of the problem go back much further — to the housing bubble collapse in 2008.

“What I call a bloodbath happened,” says [builder Emerson] Claus. It was the worst housing market crash since the Great Depression. Many homebuilders went out of business. Claus was building houses in Florida when the bottom fell out.

“A lot of my tradespeople found other work, went and got retrained for new jobs in law enforcement, all sorts of jobs,” says Claus. “So the workforce was somewhat decimated.”

A few years later, as Americans started buying more homes again, building stayed below normal. And that slump in building continued for more than a decade. Meanwhile, the largest generation, the millennials, started to settle down and buy houses.

This trend was then only made worse by the shipping and logistical bottlenecks brought on by the government-imposed covid lockdowns. These have meant a shortage of lumber, appliances, electrical equipment, and cabinetry. The National Association of Home Builders concluded in June “shortages of materials are now more widespread than at any time since NAHB began tracking the issue in the 1990s.”

The Role of Monetary “Stimulus”

Monetary inflation has fueled shortages in both labor and supplies as stimulus programs have driven demand by both businesses and consumers to new heights. Yet, since this demand is based on the appearance of newly printed money, and not on rising real wealth or productivity, we’re seeing more demand for a stagnating supply of goods and services. 

The result has been less building even as population has continued to grow. The result, of course, has been a higher cost of living—just as we would expect from an inflationary boom. 

The data on home starts and population backs up the anecdotal evidence. For example, if we look at annual housing starts totals the trend has been downward since 1960. Beginning in 1983, every new trough in the housing construction downcycle has been lower than the one before it. 

Source: US Census Bureau.

This has only been slightly mitigated by slowing population growth, and we have seen an upward trend in the number of new US residents per new housing start, even as the size of the US household has fallen. In other words, the number of new residents per new housing start has grown over time. From the 1960s through the 1980s, the average number of new Americans per new housing start was approximately 1.6. Since 1990, on the other hand, the average has been 2.2. Since 2008, the average has been 2.5. So, there are progressively fewer and fewer new housing starts per person. 

Source: US Census Bureau.

After new housing construction began to collapse in 2006, the number of new residents per new housing unit surged to nearly 5, a new high. 

On the other hand, it is true that in 2020 and 2021, new housing construction reached the highest levels seen since 2007. Moreover, the gap between new residents and new housing was eliminated. This was thanks to a sizable decline in new population growth created by covid-era border closures and a fall in fertility rates. Thus, the number of new residents per housing unit then collapsed below 1 for the first time in decades.

But, this trend is unlikely to continue since “after a construction boom in the second half of 2020 and 2021, the home building sector is contracting.” Population growth is also returning to more normal rates. The gap between new population and new units will already be growing again in 2023. It does not look like boom of the last 18 months will be enough to reverse the worsening situation in housing production. 

What can be done to reverse the trend? Last month, we explored some ways that state and local regulation has driven up the cost of construction, thus limiting the total number of units produced. Many of these regulations will only continue to push up prices while reducing affordability for first-time buyers. 

It’s also important to note the effects of repeated boom-bust cycles on total housing production.  One might be tempted to assume that new rounds of monetary stimulus—say, the quantitative easing of the past decade—would easily reverse a collapse in housing construction and will bring new highs in housing production. That is not what has happened, however. Rather, relentless monetary stimulus since 2008 has not been sufficient to address the effects of malinvestment and regulatory costs over the past 20 years. Over the past six months, new housing starts have flatlined compared to 2021, and we may even see housing starts end the year down in 2022. The result is a continuation of an ongoing decline in housing production. Not even the runaway money printing of the past two years has been enough to bring home construction back to what was more normal before the housing bubble and resulting financial crisis. 

Tyler Durden
Thu, 11/17/2022 – 14:52