UK Gov’t “War Gamed” Emergency Plans For Multi-Day Power Blackouts; Leaked Docs Reveal
The Guardian has obtained documents marked “official sensitive,” which show the government has “war-gamed” emergency plans for power blackouts lasting up to a week.
Documents are not for public consumption, warn a “reasonable worst-case scenario” power blackout would roil all segments of the economy. Transport, food, water supply, communications, and energy would grind to a halt.
In such a scenario, the government will provide citizens with food, water, and shelter if power blackouts last more than several days.
Earlier this week, UK’s Met Office published a three-month outlook for winter. Despite warm weather today, temperatures are expected to be colder than average as the heating season begins shortly:
“The likelihood of a colder three-month period overall is slightly greater than normal,” the forecasts said.
Preparing for the inevitable crisis has already begun. Whitehall officials’ secret plan, dubbed “Programme Yarrow,” has held a number of exercises with government departments and councils across the country in recent weeks to stress test collaboration efforts.
We first caught wind of increasing power blackout risks across the UK in early October when the British National Grid warned there might not be enough natural gas and electric imports from other parts of Europe later in the cold season.
“We’re heading into winter in an unprecedented situation. Even during the cold war, the Soviet Union kept the gas flowing so it’s very unpredictable,” said one senior industry source.
The Guardian said government insiders have admitted to planning exercises and preparing for the inevitable as an energy crisis is unavoidable this winter.
“All governments do contingency planning for worst-case scenarios but the truth is that we are vulnerable as a country as a direct consequence of a decade of failed Conservative energy policy.
“Banning onshore wind, slashing investment in energy efficiency, stalling nuclear and closing gas storage have led to higher bills and reliance on gas imports, leaving us more exposed to the impact of Putin’s use of energy as a geopolitical weapon,” Ed Miliband, the shadow climate secretary, said.
Last month, The Guardian revealed secret scripts prepared for BBC news anchors to read on air if rolling blackouts strike the country. The purpose of the talking points is to calm the public during a “major loss of power” event.
Only analog FM radio stations will broadcast messages to the population during a national emergency because power grid failures would cripple communication networks.
One source made it clear that Brits aren’t supposed to know about Programme Yarrow:
“The government doesn’t want any publicity on Yarrow, as they don’t want it to be seen as linked to Ukraine, energy supply and the cost of living. But we need to think about how we can help people in advance. The fact they’re talking about it now means they have a real concern it could happen.”
The good news so far is that weather has been on the warm side across the UK for October but is set to slide from here as the heating season begins.
How many cold snaps will it take for the UK to stumble into a situation where it might have to ration power?
Poland has begun constructing a razor-wire fence on its border with Russia’s Kaliningrad, where Moscow has a significant military presence, officials said on Nov. 2.
Poland’s Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki and defense minister Mariusz Blaszczak meet with service members near the frontier, as hundreds of migrants gather on the Belarusian side of the border with Poland in an attempt to cross it, near Kuznica in Bialostocka, Poland, on Nov. 9, 2021. (Polish Prime Minister’s Office/Handout via Reuters)
Polish Defense Minister Mariusz Blaszczak told reporters at a news conference that he has ordered the temporary barrier to be built immediately to ensure that Poland is secure. The barrier will measure 2.5 meters (eight feet) high and three meters (10 feet) deep along the 210-kilometer (130-mile) border.
Błaszczak cited security concerns as the reason behind the construction at the border, which comes amid ongoing tensions with Russia over its invasion of Ukraine.
Warsaw is also concerned that the Kremlin plans to facilitate illegal border crossings by Asian and African immigrants in an effort to destabilize Europe, concerns prompted by a recent decision by Russia’s aviation authority to launch flights from the Middle East and North Africa to Kaliningrad.
The border area, which is patrolled by border guards, has no physical barrier. Polish soldiers specializing in demining began carrying out the initial prep work on Nov. 2.
The barrier is due to be completed by the end of 2023, Błaszczak said.
He referenced the 2021 crisis during which thousands of African and Middle Eastern illegal aliens attempted to cross the border of Belarus, a close ally of Russia, into Poland. Many of those border crossers died, and Poland subsequently erected a steel wall on the Belarus border to stem the flow of illegal immigrants. That border was completed in June.
At the time, Polish and other European Union leaders accused Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko’s government of encouraging immigrants from the Middle East to travel to Minsk and make their way into Europe.
Belarus officials denied those claims.
A member of the Ukrainian State Border Guard Service stands near the border with Belarus and Poland in the Volyn region of Ukraine on Nov. 16, 2021. (Gleb Garanich/Reuters)
Poland–Russia Border ‘Stable and Calm’
Human rights groups then accused Poland of double standards after the nation welcomed an influx of Ukrainians fleeing Russia’s invasion while simultaneously moving to prevent Middle Eastern and North African migrants from entering via the Belarus border.
“If you give a lift to a refugee at the Ukrainian border, you are a hero. If you do it at the Belarus border, you are a smuggler and could end up in jail for eight years,” said Natalia Gebert, founder and CEO of Dom Otwarty, or Open House, a Polish nongovernmental organization that helps refugees, according to a June report by The Associated Press.
Kaliningrad is a semi-exclave—a portion of a country that’s geographically separated from the main part by a surrounding foreign territory—that lies on the Baltic Sea and is sandwiched between Poland and Lithuania and separated from Belarus by a border corridor.
Despite there being no barrier along the border, a spokesperson for the Polish Border Guard told Reuters that there were no illegal entries from Kaliningrad into Poland in October.
“The Polish–Russian border is stable and calm. There has been no illegal crossing of the border,” Polish border spokesperson Anna Michalska said. “We are not only there in times of peace. We are prepared for various crisis situations, and after what happened on the Polish–Belarusian border, we are even more prepared for everything, for all of the darkest scenarios.”
A medical board has moved to strip top cardiologist Dr. Peter McCullough of his certifications in internal medicine and cardiovascular disease, claiming that he provided misleading medical information to the public about COVID-19 vaccines.
The American Board of Internal Medicine (ABIM) informed McCullough of the action in a recent letter.
The board stated that McCullough’s statements questioning COVID-19 vaccination for healthy people younger than the age of 50 and pointing out that Americans have died after getting a COVID-19 vaccine triggered a review, which led to a recommendation that McCullough’s board certifications be revoked.
The ABIM’s Credentials and Certification Committee found that McCullough had “provided false or inaccurate medical information to the public,” the letter states.
“By casting doubt on the efficacy of COVID-19 vaccines with such seemingly authoritative statements, made in various official forums and widely reported in various media, your statements pose serious concerns for patient safety,” it reads. “Moreover, they are inimical to the ethics and professionalism standards for board certification.”
McCullough was given until Nov. 18 to appeal.
If he appeals, the matter will be considered by a panel designated by the ABIM’s Board of Directors and at least one hearing would be held. The panel could accept the recommendation, rescind it, or impose an alternative punishment.
McCullough told The Epoch Times in an email that he’ll appeal.
Allegations
In a May notice of potential disciplinary measures, the board said it had learned that McCullough made “numerous widely reported and disseminated public statements about the purported dangers of, or lack of justification for, Covid-19 vaccines.”
As an example, the board cites McCullough’s March 10, 2021, testimony before a Texas Senate panel in which he said that people who have recovered from COVID-19 have “complete and durable immunity” and that there was no rationale for vaccinating such a person.
McCullough also said at the time that there was “no scientific rationale” for people who are healthy and younger than 50 to receive one of the vaccines.
In a declaration in a court case, meanwhile, McCullough said that more than 18,000 COVID-19 vaccine deaths had been submitted to the U.S.-run Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System and that the number of reported deaths was far above that of all other vaccines combined.
ABIM says the statements might violate the board’s policy on false or inaccurate medical information, which states that “providing false or inaccurate information to patients or the public is unprofessional and unethical” and could lead to sanctions.
To back up his statements on COVID-19 vaccination, for instance, McCullough referenced data that shows people younger than 50 have a minuscule risk of death after contracting the illness, particularly if they don’t have serious underlying medical conditions.
He also noted the availability of COVID-19 treatments, that the COVID-19 vaccine spike protein has been linked to problems such as blood clotting, and that the vaccines have provided poor protection against infection and no protection against transmission.
McCullough also referenced researchthatfound people who have natural immunity—a group excluded from the vaccines’ clinical trials—are at higher risk of side effects from the vaccines and have better protection than the vaccinated.
He said that based on his medical opinion, drawing from his medical education, clinical experience, and review of scientific information, people who have recovered from COVID-19 “have robust and durable immunity against the severe outcomes of adjudicated COVID-19 hospitalization and death recognizing that the Omicron variant has broken through natural immunity.”
He also said that there “is no medical necessity or clinical indication for vaccination of a COVID-19 recovered patient since they have already had the condition for which the vaccines are indicated to prevent” and that the scientific evidence doesn’t support vaccinating people younger than the age of 50.
ABIM Response
In the decision letter, ABIM said the statements on the alleged lack of benefit from COVID-19 vaccines against mortality for those younger than 50 were “not factual, scientifically grounded, or consensus driven.”
The board based that finding on data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) that list more than 71,000 Americans in that population dying from COVID-19 as of Oct. 6. The board referenced no studies or other data.
The board stated that the statements about COVID-19 vaccine deaths also weren’t factual because the CDC says COVID-19 vaccine benefits outweigh the risks. According to the CDC, serious side effects from the vaccines include heart inflammation, blood clotting, and severe allergic shock. All three can cause death.
“Nothing in your declaration submitted in response to the Notice, or in the materials submitted to ABIM on your behalf, compels a different conclusion,” ABIM wrote.
The board’s only other citation was to the World Health Organization, which stated in March that billions of people around the world “have been safely vaccinated against COVID-19” and that the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines “have been rigorously assessed for safety and clinical trials have shown that they provide a long-lasting immune response.”
The latter statement is false; the protection against both infection and severe disease quickly drops, according to recent CDC data. Some studies have found negative effectiveness within months. The waning effectiveness prompted the CDC to change its definition of a vaccine.
McCullough said he’s concerned that ABIM will “continue to cherry-pick data and claim they have ownership over the ‘truth’ when in reality we are simply discussing data from a rapidly evolving pandemic.”
“ABIM should be only concerned with my clinical track record … which is perfect,” he said. “Board scores and clinical practice are of the highest quality.”
Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.), who invited McCullough to Capitol Hill to testify, said the doctor “has dedicated his life to saving others” and called for ABIM to reverse its decision.
Judge Stops Arizona “Mule Watchers” From Ballot Box Surveillance Tactics
A federal judge in Arizona has put the brakes on various tactics used by self-described “mule watchers” – who have been surveilling ballot boxes by taking photos and videos and posting information online, often while wearing body armor and weapons.
The group, Clean Elections USA, says it wants to prevent voter fraud by staking out ballot boxes to catch “mules” – people who illegally catch multiple ballots.
In a lawsuit against the “Mule Watchers” – named after the 2022 film “2,000 Mules” which claimed evidence of systematic election fraud – a group called the League of Women Voters said the election integrity group’s actions amounted to “time-tested methods of voter intimidation.”
Prior to a Tuesday hearing on the matter, the mule watchers agreed to cease some activities, such as open-carrying firearms or wearing visible body armor within 250 feet of ballot boxes, the NY Times reports.
Judge Michael T. Liburdi agreed with the League, issuing a temporary restraining order which prohibits the mule watchers “and other persons in active concert or participation with” from taking photos or videos of voters, or spreading information about voters online – as well as “making false statements” about the state’s statutes regarding early voting.
“It is imperative we balance the defendants’ right to engage in First Amendment-protected activity with the plaintiffs’ right to act without intimidation or harassment,” Liburdi said following a long hearing in Phoenix, which included testimony from a man who said he was harassed at a ballot box. He went on to say Clean Elections founder Melody Jennings went on Steve Bannon’s podcast to say they had ‘caught a mule.’
According to the man, who testified without revealing his name publicly for fear of harassment, eight to 10 people filmed the couple and told them they were “hunting mules.” Images of him and his car were posted online and Ms. Jennings subsequently appeared on the podcast of Stephen K. Bannon, the former Trump adviser, saying they had caught a mule and “blasted it out viral.”
Judge Liburdi called his experience particularly compelling, and noted that it went well beyond testimony from last week in a parallel case against Clean Elections USA. In that lawsuit, brought by the Arizona Alliance for Retired Americans and Voto Latino, the judge declined to enjoin Clean Elections USA’s activities, saying he had not seen any evidence that real harm had befallen any voters. That ruling is being appealed in the Ninth Circuit. -NYT
Liburdi also called out Jennings for incorrectly claiming that only spouses could return ballots on behalf of Arizona voters, when in fact housemates and caregivers may do so as well.
“This does not prohibit Miss Jennings from correctly stating what the law is,” said the judge, who said he would be drafting a preliminary injunction against Clean Elections USA over the next few days. “I just have a problem with her stating it incorrectly in a way that is intimidating or coercive to voting behavior.”
A lawyer for Clean Elections USA and Ms. Jennings, Alexander Kolodin, said he would most likely appeal the ruling – arguing that restrictions on photography or online posting and discussing AZ voting laws infringed on free speech.
“It seems like our clients are on trial for the entire state or anybody who wants to participate in ballot box monitoring or even share their views,” he said.
Washington insists on the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula and will never accept Pyongyang as a nuclear weapons state, the State Department said. The US also repeated warnings that North Korea would soon test a nuclear weapon.
Asked if the United States would “eventually recognize North Korea as a nuclear state” during a Monday presser, State Department spokesman Ned Price told reporters “That is not our policy. I do not foresee that ever becoming our policy.”
“The complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula has been our objective since the conclusion of our DPRK policy review last year,” Price continued. “That has not changed. I don’t foresee that changing going forward.”
Across several administrations, Washington has ordered Pyongyang to give up its nuclear weapons time and again since the country detonated its first warhead in 2006. After more than a decade of fruitless demands, then-President Donald Trump made diplomatic headway following multiple rounds of negotiations in 2018, with North Korea agreeing to a pause on missile and nuclear tests in exchange for a similar moratorium on US-South Korean war games.
However, that deal was upended just one year later, after Trump resumed demands for complete denuclearization, driving North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un to abandon the talks.
In September, Kim signed a new decree codifying North Korea’s nuclear weapons doctrine, declaring it would not give up its arsenal unless the rest of the world did the same, while also urging the United States to end its aggressive policies.
Though Washington claims it desires a denuclearized Korean Peninsula, it has repeatedly vowed to defend South Korea and Japan with its own atomic arsenal, keeping large swaths of the region under the US ‘nuclear umbrella.’ Under those conditions, Pyongyang has been unwilling to entertain talks with the Joe Biden administration, which has also continued – and in some cases escalated – provocative joint military drills with Seoul.
The latest round of war games kicked off this week, seeing American and South Korean warplanes take part in their largest-ever aerial drills, following several major joint exercises in the weeks prior, some also involving Tokyo.
Amid the escalating military activity, Pyongyang has carried out a record number of weapons tests in 2022, including one drill involving preparations to deploy a tactical nuclear missile. While Price warned that North Korea’s next step could be to test a nuclear weapon, Western officials have repeated that claim for several months and no test has materialized.
“Mattress Mack” Bet $10 Million On Astros To Win World Series
A Houston businessman has placed a total of $10 million in bets on the Astros to win the World Series. He says his wagers carry an average payout of 7.5-to-1, which means a Houston championship would bring him $75 million — if the Astros can overcome their current deficit to the upstart Philadelphia Phillies.
That would be the largest haul in sports betting history, according to the Houston Chronicle.
Jim “Mattress Mack” McIngvale, the 71-year-old owner of Gallery Furniture in Houston, is famed for making enormous sports bets that hedge his sports-linked furniture promotions. This year’s gimmick:
“When you purchase a Tempur-Pedic, Stearns & Foster or Sealy mattress sleep set priced at $3,000 or more, and if the Houston Astros win it all in the 2022 final championship series, your purchase is FREE!”
While there’s only upside for his customers, McIngvale could see $10 million of his estimated $300 million net worth vanish. Then again, he reportedly won $15 million betting on the Kansas Jayhawks to win the NCAA men’s basketball tournament earlier this year, so he may well consider this Astros bet as using “house money.”
“Winning the bet is very important, but more importantly, winning the bets allows us to give money back to all of our customers who bought about $75 million worth of furniture,” McIngvale tells CNBC.
In Tuesday night’s Game 3 in front of a Philadelphia crowd, the Astros were positively pummeled by the Phillies, 7-0. The win put the Phillies up 2 games to 1 in the best-of-seven series, with the next two games played in Philadelphia Wednesday and Thursday (8:03 pm ET on Fox.)
McIngvale has been a huge backer of the Astros, even after the team’s reputation was reputation forever stained by a 2017-18 cheating scandal in which video cameras were used to steal opposing catchers’ signals, and the banging of trash cans — or silence — was used to tell Astros batters what pitch to expect.
This week, he’s on the road to support his team. Ahead of Tuesday’s game, he enjoyed a warm welcome from Phillies fans who spotted the iconic fan and sports bettor:
After the lopsided Astros loss, things weren’t so pretty:
Houston businessman Jim McIngvale, known as Mattress Mack, appears to be seen in a verbal altercation with Phillies fans following the Astros loss on Tuesday eveningpic.twitter.com/8vf0D6T8gu
It Was The Worst Final 90 Minutes To A Fed Day In History, As JPM Warns “Squeeze Has Been Squoze”
It will live in the annals of market infamy as the day the Fed rugpulled the market, when first a very dovish statement sparked a frenzied buying spree, only to be followed by a blistering, hawkish assault on the bulls during Powell’s press conference, leading to risk freefall, and the worst final 90 minutes of a Fed day in history, according to Bespoke.
In his EOD wrap, Goldman tradaer John Flood agrees that today was a Dr Jekyll/Mr Hyde kinda day, when the Fed statement, ostensibly written by the dovish Lael Brainard, sparked a risk-on buying frenzy, only to crater when Powell said it was not only premature to think about pausing rates, but said that “incoming data since our last meeting suggests that the ultimate level of interest rates will be higher than previously expected” suggesting that the dots will be revised materially up in December.
75bps it is (for the 4th consecutive meeting). Table now set for a potential pull back to 50bps in Dec (market was already pricing this in coming into today). Official 2pm statement was indeed dovish: The Fed said it will consider existing tightening steps, the lagged effect of policy, and “economic and financial developments” (all dovish phrases).
However, during the presser Powell was quite hawkish: “VERY PREMATURE TO THINK ABOUT PAUSING RATE HIKES” was the line that really stood out to me. After this comment we saw Macro HFs press shorts and L/Os outright cxl bids in singles that they had layered lower in the mkt. We had steady L/O supply in supercap tech all session (again). Our U.S. equities franchise ended with -449bps sell skew vs 30d avg of -135bp sell skew. Growth factor -$838mm notional sell skew which is most dramatic since 8/22/22 and in 79th percentile vs previous 52 weeks.
As the selling accelerated, all support levels were taken out:
S&P 50dma of 3822 didn’t provide any support. CTAs and Corporates can’t prop this tape up on their own. Lower for longer now when it comes to US stocks post today’s developments.
For Flood’s downbeat conclusion to today’s market action, he uses Jpow’s own summation of today’s message:
“Okay. So I would also say it’s premature to discuss pausing. It’s not something that we’re thinking about. That’s really not a conversation to be had now. We have a ways to go. The last thing I’ll say is that I would want people to understand our commitment to getting this done and to not making the mistake of not doing enough or the mistake of withdrawing our strong policy and doing that too soon. I control those messages. That’s my job.”
JPMorgan’s Andrew Tyler agreed with Goldman, saying that – to use the parlance of the apes – the squeeze has been squoze.
Ron Adler sums up the Equity view, “There hasn’t been a real shift in the cadence or complexion of our flows. We’ve seen some faster $ players look to sell, but I wouldn’t say there’s a heightened sense of urgency. As noted earlier, buyers were buying this am on the hope that we would rally, knowing they had more stock lower to buy; they were set up to buy on weakness (which they are doing ~3800), not to chase. I’ll leave the parsing through Powell’s comments to others, but my simple view -> those looking for immediate gratification should continue to buckle up (this is going to take a while), and while the rate of increase will slow, Terminal Rate isn’t ready to go lower yet, and probably trends higher. The most recent squeeze has probably been appropriately squeezed at this point.
In retrospect, everything Powell said was with the benefit of solid payrolls numbers backing him. Let’s see how fast his enthusiasm to crush inflation taper, so to speak, once we get a -100,000 NFP print, which judging by what is happening in Silicon Valley, may be as soon as next month, especially since the BLS “seasonal adjustments” team will no longer have Biden propaganda henchmen breathing down their neck after next week’s midterms avalanche.
RCP Now Projects 54 GOP Senate Seats As New Hampshire Leaning Red
It looks like “Red Wave” in the the 2022 midterm may crest even higher, as the New Hampshire senate race is now tilting toward the GOP in what would be another flip of a currently Democratic seat.
A multi-week narrowing of a 9-point lead held by incumbent Maggie Hassan has culminated in a brand new St. Anselm College poll that puts Republican challenger Don Bolduc up by a percentage point. That’s within the poll’s 2.5% margin of error — but who knows the extent to which, like other polls, it understates GOP strength.
Chalk up the shift to Bolduc winning over more independents, who comprise about 40% of the electorate:
“Hassan’s lead among undeclared voters has evaporated,” reports St. Anselm’s pollsters. “After leading by 8 points (49%-41%) among undeclareds in September, Hassan is now tied with Bolduc at 45%.”
Bolduc’s favorability rating has risen from 41% to 46%, putting him just ahead of Hassan, whose favorability has sagged. Asked about Bolduc’s surge on Tuesday, Hassan said, “We’ve always known it would be a very, very tight race.”
Hassan, a former New Hampshire state legislator and governor, is in her first term in the US Senate. Bolduc is aretired US Army brigadier general who spent most of his career in Special Forces, surviving both a helicopter crash and a 2,000-pound bomb in a friendly fire incident. He has acknowledged having coped with post-traumatic stress disorder.
According to The Hill, Bolduc had struggled to convince Republicans to coalesce around his candidacy, as he’d faced controversy over previously claiming that the 2020 election was stolen from Donald Trump. As he’s backed away from that rhetoric, his fortunes have risen, putting him on the threshold of victory.
On Monday, Bolduc received Trump’s endorsement via the former president’s account on his Truth Social platform. Trump couldn’t resist including a scolding of his endorsee:
“General Don Bolduc has run a great campaign to be the U.S. Senator from the beautiful State of New Hampshire. He was a strong and proud ‘Election Denier,’ a big reason that he won the Nomination, but he then disavowed.”
Because of the swing in the New Hampshire race, RealClear Politics is now projecting that Republicans will control 54 seats in January, holding on to all their current seats while flipping seats in Arizona, Georgia, New Hampshire and Nevada.
As has been the case with Republican challenger Blake Masters in the Arizona Senate race, national GOP organizations dialed back their spending on the New Hampshire race when Bolduc was trailing by a significant margin, only for Bolduc to battle back into contention anyway. He’s done so while emphasizing energy policy and southern border security.
Bolduc has opposed Washington’s relentless infusion of weapons and billions of dollars into Ukraine without any accompanying pursuit of diplomacy.
“Where’s the rest of the strategy? How are we going to get these guys to the table to talk about peace?” he asked in August. “We’re not the World Bank. We’re not the Bank of Ukraine. We’re not the bank of anybody. We’re not the world police.”
Former Democrat and fellow veteran Tulsi Gabbard has campaigned for Bolduc, and recently penned an endorsement op-ed at Fox News:
“Having both seen the cost of war firsthand, we understand the importance of peace, and how essential and urgent it is that we stop spending taxpayer dollars to escalate the proxy war against Russia in Ukraine, walk us back from the brink of nuclear war, and support a negotiated end to this disastrous war.”
With an upfront ad, that is a free WSJ video link.
The Lukoil Connection
Image composite from WSJ video
Sanction Avoidance Process
US sanctions are on crude oil, not refined products.
Lukoil, Russia’s second largest oil and gas company was not sanctioned by the US.
Lukoil’s refinery in Sicily is the second largest in Italy and fifth largest in Europe.
A Lukoil refinery in Italy once processed crude from multiple countries. Now it inputs are 93 percent from Russia.
After refining, the country of origin is Italy, not Russia. This is due to longstanding practice of changing the country of origin to where oil is refined.
The refined product then makes its way Exxon and Lukoil plants in New Jersey and Texas.
Lukoil still has a gas station presence in the US and it distributes products to eleven states.
Lukoil Stations in 11 US States
Image composite from WSJ video
Note: Most of the 230 Lukoil gas stations in the US are owned by individual American franchisees, not the oil giant itself.
Understanding the Process
The US has sanction exclusions for oil “substantially transformed into a foreign-made product.”
US refiners cannot process Russian crude, but Italian refiners can, then distribute the product here.
In return, US can send its refined products to the EU, completing the round trip!
Lukoil is 6th largest refiner in Europe. It went from processing 30% Russian oil to 93%. That’s a pretty big sieve even if amounts to US are small.
Conveniently timed for the US election, European bans on Lukoil do not come into play until December 5.
Unless the EU backs down, this could lead to another surge in the price of gasoline in December.
Meanwhile, In eleven US states, people are filling up their tanks in part with Russian oil products via the above convoluted means.
The US Treasury department refused to comment on this process. Gee, I wonder why.
Biden says this is all Putin’s fault, while traipsing the globe begging Saudi Arabia and Venezuela for more oil.
Finally, after Biden told both OPEC and the US oil industry of its intent to kill the industry, the president now threatens both the US and Saudi produces with tax hikes and unspecified consequences.
Russia Preparing To Move 70,000 Civilians From Kherson Region
Russia is preparing to order a “compulsory” transfer of tens of thousands of residents in the Kherson region as the fight for the south heats up. This could involve as many as 70,000 civilians in what would mark a large-scale Russian withdrawal from the occupied Ukrainian city.
Citing Russian officials, The Wall Street Journalreports that “starting Sunday they would begin relocating residents from the Kakhovsky district on the east bank of the Dnipro River due to what they claim is the possibility of a Ukrainian attack on a strategic dam nearby.” Already evacuations have been ongoing for weeks from the city as fighting and heavy shelling encroach.
And the pro-Russian governor of Kherson Volodymyr Saldo confirmed preparations for a mandated evacuation ahead of advancing Ukrainian forces, which a Russian decree said will be “in a compulsory manner.” Russian officials say this is necessary because Ukraine forces are plotting a “massive missile strike on the Kakhovka hydroelectric station” to flood Kherson.
Ukraine has denied these plans of course, and has in turn accused the Russian side of essentially using the large civilian transfer as one big “human shield”:
“They want to create the impression that this is a civilian evacuation. Surrounded by civilians they understand that they have a degree of safety,” said a spokeswoman for the southern command of Ukraine’s armed forces.
They say Russian military vehicles are intentionally mixing with civilian convoys as they exit the region.
Meanwhile, Ukrainian media sources are touting that the national armed forces have conductedat least 100 firing missions on Wednesday, conducted by artillery and missile units.
“The Armed Forces of Ukraine struck an extremely successful blow on the occupiers in Kherson, hitting the air defense systems at Spartak stadium, which were used to attack Mykolaiv,” a statement from an official with Ukraine’s Kherson Regional Council said on Facebook.
A report this week in the Associated Press said that many among the recently mobilized Russian recruits have been sent to Kherson front lines, despite official denials from the Kremlin.
