Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Summit News,

Author Paul Ehrlich, whose 1968 book ‘The Population Bomb’ predicted environmental catastrophes that never happened, appeared on 60 Minutes to warn of “the end of the kind of civilization we’re used to.”

Ehrlich’s conversation with CBS host Scott Pelley centered around the narrative that human population growth will be too much for the Earth to sustain, despite the fact that it is set to peak at 9 billion people before rapidly declining.

“Too many people, too much consumption and growth mania” is killing the planet and devastating wildlife according to Ehrlich.

“Humanity is not sustainable. To maintain our lifestyle (yours and mine, basically) for the entire planet, you’d need five more Earths. Not clear where they’re gonna come from,” he claimed.

Paul Ehrlich: “The next few decades will be the end of the kind of civilization we’re used to.”

CBS’s @ScottPelley: “The 5 mass extinctions of the ancient past were caused by natural calamities … humanity may have to survive a 6th mass extinction in a world of its own making.” pic.twitter.com/Vf7DNPLGai

— Tom Elliott (@tomselliott) January 2, 2023

Despite charges of alarmism, the author defiantly asserted, “I was alarmed. I am still alarmed. All of my colleagues are alarmed” (seemingly unaware that the definition of alarmism is to grossly exaggerate something that isn’t true).

“I know there’s no political will to do any of the things that I’m concerned with, which is exactly why I and the vast majority of my colleagues think we’ve had it; that the next few decades will be the end of the kind of civilization we’re used to,” Ehrlich absurdly claimed.

“The five mass extinctions of the ancient past were caused by natural calamities—volcanoes, and an asteroid. Today, if the science is right, humanity may have to survive a sixth mass extinction in a world of its own making,” he added.

Enrivonmental author Michael Shellenberger responded to the segment by documenting how Ehrlich’s claims were “totally & utterly false” and accusing CBS of pushing “apocalyptic pseudoscience.”

Elon Musk, who has warned about the dangers of population decline, agreed, tweeting, “Absolutely.”

Absolutely

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) January 2, 2023

Ehrlich is still treated as a credible voice by the legacy media despite his previous predictions proving to be completely laughable.

In his 1968 book The Population Bomb, Ehrlich ludicrously claimed “hundreds of millions of people are going to starve to death” by the 1980’s because of overpopulation.

It never happened.

Similarly, in 2004, climate change “experts” claimed that by 2020, “major European cities will be sunk beneath rising seas as Britain is plunged into a ‘Siberian’ climate by 2020”.

It never happened.

In 2013, Al Gore claimed that the Arctic would have “ice free” summers by 2013.

It never happened, in fact measurements taken by the EU’s Earth observation programme last year showed that Arctic sea ice was just 3 per cent below its 30 year average.

None of it ever happens, but that doesn’t stop people like Ehrlich continually spewing doomsday rhetoric in order to advance the narrative that living standards must be drastically reduced in the name of saving the planet.

They should have all been dismissed as wild cranks years ago, but the legacy media is still treating them like they have a shred of credibility left when they clearly don’t.

*  *  *

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FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried has asked a judge to conceal the identities of two people who will help secure his bail in addition to his parents’ house in Palo Alto, California, Bloomberg reports.

“If the two remaining sureties are publicly identified, they will likely be subjected to probing media scrutiny, and potentially targeted for harassment, despite having no substantive connection to the case,” wrote SBF’s lawyers in a letter filed on Tuesday seeking redactions of the names of the two individuals who intend to sign as sureties to his bail.

“Consequently, the privacy and safety of the sureties are “countervailing factors” that significantly outweigh the presumption of public access to the very limited information at issue,” the letter continues.

Bankman-Fried’s $250 million bail package – granted in his first appearance on US soil since his arrest in the Bahamas, was secured by his parents’ Palo Alto home, which is worth nowhere near that amount. The judge in the case also required that two people of “considerable means,” at least one of whom cannot be a relative, also sign the bond.

Bankman-Fried was granted a $250 million bail package in December, one of the largest in US history. The personal recognizance bond approved by the judge was secured by the equity in Bankman-Fried’s parents home in Palo Alto, California, which is almost certainly not worth anywhere near that amount. But outsized bonds are more a means of establishing harsh financial consequences for bail-jumping and are often backed by assets worth only around 10% of the stated amount. -Bloomberg

The two individuals have not yet signed the bond but intend to do so by the Jan. 5 deadline, according to the letter.

Bankman-Fried is set to appear in a Manhattan federal court on Tuesday to face charges on eight criminal counts ranging from wire fraud to conspiracy to commit money laundering, to conspiracy by misusing customer funds, CNN reports. He is expected to plead not guilty.

He faces 115 years if convicted on all charges.

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The Illinois Supreme Court placed on hold portions of a controversial law know as the SAFE-T Act that would eliminate cash bail for some crimes.

In a ruling on Saturday afternoon—just hours before the law was supposed to be enacted—the Supreme Court placed the cashless bail provision under the SAFE-T Act on hold for the entire state. A ruling from a lower court last week placed that part of the law on hold for dozens of counties, but not all of them.

The law was slated to go into effect on 12:01 a.m. on Sunday, Jan. 1, eliminating cash bail for some crimes. The state Supreme Court ruled that the cash bail measure would take power out of state judges’ hands.

“The emergency motion for supervisory order is allowed,” the Illinois high court wrote. “In order to maintain consistent pretrial procedures throughout Illinois, the effective date of the Pretrial Fairness Act is stayed during the pendency of the appeal … and until further order of this Court.”

In late December, a Kankakee County judge ruled that cashless bail violated the state’s Constitution and would not be applied in counties that filed a lawsuit to block the measure.  Attorney General Kwame Raoul, a Democrat, criticized the ruling and said he would appeal the court ruling.

“Had the SAFE-T Act gone into effect on January 1, 2023, while litigation is pending, the administration of justice in Illinois would have been uneven, thus harming the citizens of the state,” DuPage County State’s Attorney Robert Berlin and Kane County State’s Attorney Jaime Mosser said in a joint statement. The two officials had joined the lawsuit to block the cashless bail provision, and they filed an emergency motion on Dec. 30 to suspend the law pending its resolution.

They added, “We are very pleased with the Illinois Supreme Court’s decision. The equal administration of justice is paramount to the successful and fair administration of our criminal justice system. Today’s decision will ensure that those accused of a crime in Illinois will receive equal and fair treatment throughout the State.”

In a Saturday statement, Raoul wrote that it is “only the Supreme Court” that can decide “the merits will be binding on all Illinois courts.”

“It is important to note that the order issued today by the court is not a decision on the merits of the constitutionality of the SAFE-T Act, and I appreciate the court’s interest in expediting the appeal. We look forward to mounting a robust defense of the constitutionality of the law and ensuring that it goes into effect across the state,” Raoul said after the Supreme Court’s ruling.

Response

Proponents of the law, including Democrat state Sen. Elgie R. Sims, Jr., said that the measure would “fundamentally change” the state’s criminal justice system and claimed that Republican critics of the measure were telling “lies” about the bill when it was being considered in the state legislature.

Read more here…

US and European natural gas prices are sliding as warmer weather reduces demand for the heating fuel, and storage levels remain high. Risks of a global energy crisis are diminishing for now — well — that’s until the next cold blast strikes. 

The polar vortex that sent much of the Lower 48 into a deep freeze at the end of 2022 ended last week. Now, much of the US will see warmer-than-normal temperatures through mid-Jan. 

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s latest 6-10 Day Temperature Outlook shows that nearly all Lower 48 will experience above-average weather. 

NOAA’s 8-14 Day Temperature Outlook suggests the same. 

Weather data via Bloomberg shows Lower 48 temperatures are expected to remain above a 30-year average through mid-month. 

And this will reduce heating demand. 

US NatGas storage entered into a drawing period in mid-Nov. and has been sliding since.  

A weaker heating demand outlook has sent US NatGas prices down nearly 9% to $4.062 per million British thermal units on the New York Mercantile Exchange in early Tuesday trading. Prices are back to levels not seen since early February 2022. 

Across the Atlantic, EU NatGas touched the lowest levels since the start of the Ukraine war. 

“The risk of extreme market tightness that people were worried about before the winter started seems low now,” BloombergNEF’s Abhishek Rohatgi wrote. 

Warmer weather in Europe has eased concerns about blackouts and rationing as stockpiles increase:

In fact, Europe has been able to add more gas into storage in the last few days amid a mix of curbed heating needs and typically lower consumption during the holiday season. -Bloomberg

EU NatGas storage increased last week. 

Temperatures across Central EU are expected to hold above seasonal levels through at least the mid-month. 

Sign of relief worldwide: NatGas prices slide in the US, EU, and Asia. 

We noted days ago the risks of a collapsing polar vortex in the Arctic could send parts of the EU into a chill later this month. And it’s only a matter of time before cold weather returns to the US. 

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

For many investors who started their investing journey following the financial crisis, forward returns will be disappointing compared to the last decade. But it won’t be solely due to high valuations.

I recently discussed why the next “Secular Bear Market” may have started, which touched on the issues of valuations and forward returns. To wit:

“Three items drive secular bull markets: 1) valuation expansion, 2) earnings growth and 3) falling interest rates. The most prominent driver of secular returns are periods of valuation expansion and contractions.”

“The chart above shows the history of secular market periods going back to 1871 using data from Dr. Robert Shiller. You will notice that secular bull markets begin with CAPE valuations around 10x earnings or even less. Secular bear markets tend to start with valuations of 23-25x earnings or greater. (Over the long-term, valuations do matter.) Most notably, secular BEAR market periods are defined by near-zero returns during the valuation contraction process.”

As we know, a decent correlation exists between future returns and current valuations

As we have often stated, such does not mean that every year over the next decade will foster low returns. It only suggests that the total return will be low over the entire decade. History shows that such is the case.

“Notably, as an investor, only 5-periods are secular bull markets (where prices are increasing) over the last 150 years. Those five periods account for 100% of all the index gains. In other words, the outcome was disappointing if you invested on a buy-and-hold basis during any other period.”

However, another reason forward returns will likely be substantially lower than in the past has nothing to do with valuations.

The Monetary Illusion Of Growth

How often have you seen the following chart presented by an advisor suggesting if you had invested 120 years ago, you would have obtained a 10% annualized return?

It is a true statement that over the very long term, stocks have returned roughly 6% from capital appreciation and 4% from dividends on a nominal basis. However, since inflation has averaged approximately 2.3% over the same period, real returns averaged roughly 8% annually.

The chart below shows the average annual inflation-adjusted total returns (dividends included) since 1928. I used the total return data from Aswath Damodaran, a Stern School of Business professor at New York University. The chart shows that from 1928 to 2021, the market returned 8.48% after inflation. However, notice that after the financial crisis in 2008, returns jumped by an average of four percentage points for various periods.

After more than a decade, many investors have become complacent in expecting elevated rates of return from the financial markets. During that period, investors developed many rationalizations to justify overpaying for assets.

However, the problem is that replicating those returns becomes highly improbable unless the Federal Reserve and Government commit to ongoing fiscal and monetary interventions. The chart below of annualized growth of stocks, GDP, and earnings show the outsized anomaly of 2021.

Since 1947, earnings per share have grown at 7.72%, while the economy has expanded by 6.35% annually. That close relationship in growth rates is logical, given the significant role that consumer spending has in the GDP equation.

The market disconnect from underlying economic activity over the last decade was due almost solely to successive monetary interventions leading investors to believe “this time is different.” The chart below shows the cumulative total of those interventions that provided the illusion of organic economic growth.

Over the next decade, the ability to replicate $10 of interventions for each $1 of economic seems much less probable.

A Return To Normal

Over the last decade, massive monetary interventions distorted financial markets from their respective underlying economic linkages. As noted above, the deviation from long-term growth trends is unsustainable, particularly when factoring in demographic trends.

Over the next decade, the elderly population will begin systematically withdrawing assets from the market for retirement. Given the rise in individuals approaching retirement against a declining working-age population, the problems for pension and welfare systems become more apparent.

Nonetheless, economic growth will run below previous trends between an aging demographic of accumulators becoming net distributors of assets and less monetary support in the future.

Therefore, returns must revert to historical norms. Such will result from profit margins and earnings returning to levels that align with actual economic activity.

Of course, one must also consider the drag on future returns from the excessive debt accumulated since the financial crisis.

That debt’s sustainability depends on low-interest rates, which can only exist in a low-growth, low-inflation environment. Naturally, a low inflation and slow growth economy do not support excess return rates.

It is hard to fathom how forward return rates will not be disappointing compared to the last decade. However, those excess returns were the result of a monetary illusion. The consequence of dispelling that illusion will be challenging for investors.

Does this mean investors will make NO money over the decade? No. It means that returns will likely be substantially lower than investors have witnessed over the last decade.

But then again, getting normal returns may be “feel” very disappointing to many.

Good news, right?

German inflation plunged more than expected in December (EU Harmonized -1.2% MoM vs -0.8% exp) – the biggest MoM drop since Jan 2015.

Obviously, there appears to be a great deal of seasonality in this monthly series.

This slowed the YoY rate of inflation to +9.6% (vs +10.2% exp)

Bloomberg reports that the decline to single digits in the main rate masks an increase in food costs across Germany at the end of 2022, aggravating a squeeze on the poorest families and stoking the risk of a wage-price spiral.

However, the Bundesbank predicts consumer inflation will remain above 7% in 2023 and has cautioned against misinterpreting single data reports as a shift in trend, citing a “great deal of uncertainty.”

Additionally, a strong labor market in Germany, where unemployment unexpectedly dropped in December, supports the ECB’s hawkish argument that extending an historic series of rate-hikes with at least two more half-point steps early this year.

Authored by Thomas Brooke via Remix News,

A deeply pessimistic British electorate expects the cost of living crisis to continue to hamper the country in the calendar year to come with seven in ten Brits having little faith in the ability of Rishi Sunak’s administration to improve their fortunes in 2023, latest polling reveals.

A PeoplePolling survey, commissioned by GB News, revealed as few as 1 percent of respondents were completely confident the government would effectively tackle the cost of living crisis which has seen inflation sky-rocket due to record-high energy prices.

Only 18 percent are “fairly,” “somewhat” or “slightly” confident in the government’s ability to ease the crisis, while 70 percent have little faith in Sunak’s administration to tackle financial pressures in the year ahead.

Labour voters at the last general election are typically the least confident in the government, with 90 percent pessimistic about its competence, however, a majority of Conservative voters from 2019 (53 percent) have also lost faith in the party they elected into government.

When asked for words which spring to mind to best describe their views of the year ahead, the most widely-used terms included “difficult,” “tough,” “challenging,” “bleak,” and “worrying.”

“S**t,” “f****d”, and “poverty” were also commonly-used phrases by respondents.

Source: Twitter, @GoodwinMJ

A majority of the public, some 60 percent of respondents, believe that 2023 will actually be worse financially for their families than the year just gone, with just 6 percent expecting it to be better, revealing the extent of the task ahead for the U.K. government to win back an evermore pessimistic electorate which is losing faith in its leaders to steady the ship.

Commenting on the polling results, academic and pollster Matthew Goodwin said U.K. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak was “heading into 202 facing some huge obstacles.”

He claimed the Conservative party’s recovery “has not just stalled but now appears to be going backwards.

Sir Keir Starmer and the Labour Party begin 2023 in prime position, with more than enough support for a majority at the next general election. Whatever Rishi Sunak does next, he’d better do it quick because the clock is now ticking, and he and his party are well behind.”

Haven’t heard any “Who wears short shorts?” jokes from Elon Musk lately, have we?

Tesla short sellers appear – for the first time in the company’s history – to finally be in control. One of the most highly shorted names since its inception, Tesla has done well to prove both skeptics and short sellers wrong.

The company’s stock is still up almost 500% over the last five years – but 2022 saw a -65% drop in the equity’s price which has short sellers feeling like they are back in the driver’s seat. And according to Yahoo Finance/Bloomberg, short sellers have reaped mark to market profits in 2022 of about $17 billion.

Citing data from S3 Partners, the report said that Tesla has lost about $670 billion in market value this year alone. Ihor Dusaniwsky of S3 told Bloomberg that he “expects short selling to persist until the stock reaches a bottom”. Astute analysis, Ihor…

“When Tesla’s stock begins to tick upwards, there should be a flurry of short covering which will help boost its stock price higher and quicker as shorter-term short sellers look to realize their outsized mark-to-market profits before they evaporate,” he added. 

Short interest in Tesla has always been elevated and this year’s move in the stock has emboldened long-term skeptics. The report noted: “At one point in 2018, more than one third of the stock’s entire free float was held short.”

Among those on the receiving end of the windfall are many shorts who got trounced with Tesla’s move higher between 2019 and 2022. But at least for now, they appear to have the upper hand.

Tesla short Mark Speigel’s fund ends 2022 up 75.5%, saw 17.4% rise in December alone – Investor letter

— Quoth the Raven (@QTRResearch) December 30, 2022

Recall, Tesla surged once again at the end of last week after Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas was out lowering his price target on Tesla stock from $330 to $250, but maintaining his overweight rating on the name and arguing that the recent selloff in the name has created an “opportunity”.

“We believe 2023 is shaping up to be a ‘reset’ year for the EV market where the last 2 years of demand exceeding supply will be substantially inverted to supply exceeding demand. Within this environment, we believe players that are self-funded (non-reliant on external capital funding) with demonstrated scale and cost leadership throughout the value chain (from manufacturing to up-stream material supply) can be relative winners,” Jonas wrote.

“We believe Tesla may bein position to extend its lead vs. the EV competition in FY23 (both legacy and start-up) even before consideration of IRA (Inflation Reduction Act) benefits where Tesla also stands out as the biggest potential winner,” he continued. 

We’ll have the next chapter in the Tesla drama show soon, as the company is expected to report its Q4 deliveries in the first few days of January. 

Authored by Ryszard Czarnecki via Remix News,

In reality, Budapest says out loud what Germany thinks, argues Polish MEP Ryszard Czarnecki…

However significant Viktor Orbán and Hungary may be, it is Germany whose voice is decisive inside the EU.

The fact that it is Orbán’s conciliatory statements on Russia that are highlighted rather than similar and even more far-reaching statements from Chancellor Scholz, French President Macron, Bulgarian President Radev, or Croatian President Milanovic, is enlightening.

Hungary, just as it has often been very critical of Brussels verbally but very pragmatic inside the European Council, has also verbally demonstrated its differences with Brussels regarding Russia while in the end always agreeing to sanctions imposed on that country.

In fact, Belgium was the last country to raise the veto, but since it is not governed by the right, no one complains. 

Hungary has used every debate on sanctions to fight for its own interests, which has often weakened sanctions. However, very similar exceptions have been secured by Italy, which can, for instance, continue to export clothes and shoes to Russia, something Italy secured before Giorgia Meloni came to power flanked by Matteo Salvini and Silvio Berlusconi.

But it is the Meloni government that gets attacked in the Western media for what it might do in the future with regard to Russia, whereas all is quiet about what the previous left-leaning administration already did. 

Orbán and Hungary are under the EU’s boot because the leftist majority always attacks the right, whereas it deliberately stays silent on the pro-Moscow policies that had been pursued by left and liberal-leaning governments.

It is hypocritical and an example of schizophrenia to criticize Hungary for sins that have been and still are being committed by Western governments.

International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva warned on CBS’s ‘Face the Nation’ in an interview aired on Jan. 1 that a third of the global economy will be in recession this year and investors must prepare for “a tough year, tougher than the year we leave behind.”

Kristalina explained recession risks are elevated “because the three big economies, US, EU, China, are all slowing down simultaneously.” She added that some countries will avoid recession, though “it would feel like a recession for hundreds of millions of people.”

“Our big worry is that with the economy slowing down globally, we are projecting global growth to go down to 2.7%, maybe even lower next year,” she said. In 2021, global growth was 6%. It slumped to 3.2% in 2022 and continues to decline as central banks worldwide unleash the most aggressive monetary policy tightening scheme in a generation to get inflation under control. 

Georgieva added the US might avoid a recession, but the situation looks bleaker in Europe, which has been hit hard by the war in Ukraine, she said. “Half of the European Union will be in recession,” she warned. 

“For the first time in 40 years, China’s growth in 2022 is likely to be at or below global growth. That has never happened before. And looking into next year for three, four, five, six months, the relaxation of COVID restrictions will mean bushfire COVID cases throughout China,” she said. 

Georgieva warned the world is “more shock-prone” than ever before. An energy crisis is plaguing the world — national security issues in Europe and Asia and liquidity issues in the banking system. The shocks of Covid are still not over though global supply chain congestion is receding.

Georgieva’s comments are alarming for investors hoping for a soft economic landing this year. The latest figures over the weekend pointed to more weakness in the Chinese economy. 

The official purchasing managers’ index for China’s factory activity shrank for the third consecutive month in December despite reopening efforts. The downturn is also visible in the purchasing managers index for manufacturing worldwide, slipping into a contraction in September. 

Besides the IMF, BlackRock, the world’s largest investment manager, has also warned a recession is imminent due to central banks aggressively boosting borrowing costs to tame inflation. According to a team of BlackRock strategists, their actions will ignite more market turbulence than ever before.

“Recession is foretold as central banks race to try to tame inflation. It’s the opposite of past recessions,” the team wrote in their 2023 Global Outlook, which said that the global economy has already exited a four-decade period of stable growth and inflation, and has now entered a period of heightened instability.

And when things get bad, BlackRock said, “Central bankers won’t ride to the rescue when growth slows in this new regime, contrary to what investors have come to expect. Equity valuations don’t yet reflect the damage ahead.”