Welcome To Baltimore: Chaos, Gunfire, And Roaming Youth Mobs Transform Bar District Into Warzone
One of Baltimore City’s premier bar and restaurant districts was transformed into a warzone over the weekend, with roaming gangs of underage kids, large unruly crowds, fights, and even a shootout that seemed like a scene from the crime drama The Wire. Urban decay in Baltimore is rampant and is a symptom of failed left-wing leadership, which seems more focused on city-killing progressive politics, DEI, illegal aliens, and climate change than actually providing basic law and order to taxpayers.
Fox Baltimore reports that Fells Point was flooded with hundreds of young people, mostly underage teens, overwhelming parts of the nightlife district known for its local shops, bars, and restaurants.
More from Fells Point:
Imagine wanting to go out for dinner and a few drinks on a Saturday and this is what you walk into 🤦♂️
In a video that has been making the rounds on social media, footage shows people running after reportedly hearing gunfire in Fells Point early Saturday morning.
The scenes of chaos raise new concerns that the failed left-wing leadership under Mayor Brandon Scott has lost control of the city’s youth. The direct consequence will be that tourists – those still brave enough to visit a city in terminal decline – may abandon plans to come to Fells. This will impact mom-and-pop restaurants.
A large police presence filled Fells Point overnight after hundreds of young people crowded the streets, prompting multiple calls for disorderly conduct and at least one arrest.
As public safety concerns mount, quality of life deteriorates, and taxes remain ungodly high, raising a family in a city controlled by Democrats has become unbearable and dangerous – all the more reason to flee to the county or leave the state entirely for a common-sense red state.
For anyone traveling up or down the I-95 along the East Coast this summer, the Baltimore exit may be one to avoid. The wise move is to keep on driving. And if you want a taste of Baltimore, just re-watch The Wire on a streaming platform from the comfort of your sofa.
A majority of U.S. adults (65 percent) say they believe that it would be good for society if more Americans were religious, according to a poll by Gallup.
Gallup’s Values and Beliefs survey, released on June 16, found a substantial gap between the sexes, with 70 percent of men agreeing that more religiosity would be good for the country, compared with 61 percent of women.
By age grouping, the younger generations were least likely to agree, with less than half (49 percent) of 18- to 34-year-olds saying it would be good if more Americans had a faith, compared with 66 percent of 35- to 54-year-olds and three in four (75 percent) of those aged 55 and over.
In terms of political affiliation, the vast majority of Republicans (94 percent) thought that having more religious people would be better for the United States, followed by independents (59 percent), and Democrats (51 percent).
“Nonreligious people are the only major subgroup that believes increased religiousness would be negative (55 percent) rather than positive (27 percent) for the nation,” pollsters said of the findings of their survey, conducted between May 1 and 17.
Proportion Down From 2013
While nearly two-thirds (65 percent) of Americans say that more religiosity would be good for the country, Gallup noted that this proportion is down from the 75 percent of U.S. adults who expressed the same opinion when asked by the polling firm in 2013.
This 10-point shift reflects changes in opinion in most key demographic and political groups, mostly dramatically among women, 18- to 34-year-olds, those with some college, and Democrats – with all those groups shifting opinion by negative 16 points.
The only exceptions were Catholics (up 5 percent), those with no religious affiliation (up 3 percent), and Republicans (also up 3 percent).
The decline mirrors the decrease in religious sentiment across the United States.
According to Gallup findings from March, less than half (47 percent) of Americans say that religion is “very important” in their lives. The reading has been gradually declining from 58 percent in 2012. In 1952, this proportion was 75 percent, and 70 percent in 1965.
Religion Increasing Influence
The latest survey also found that Americans see religion increasing its influence in life in the United States, with 39 percent of U.S. adults saying religion’s influence is on the rise. This is among the highest readings in the past two decades, only lower than 41 percent in December 2025 and 40 percent in September 2006.
“The recent increase began after Republican Party victories in the 2024 elections, with the percentage climbing from 20 percent in May 2024 to 35 percent in December of that year,” Gallup said.
“The past two readings, from May and December, have been even higher since the GOP has been in office and governing.”
Commenting on the findings overall, Gallup said that “while Americans continue to believe a more religious society would serve the U.S. well, fewer hold this view than did in 2013.
“This shift has come as the percentage of Americans who are religious are, by nearly any measure, near historical lows.”
Pollsters added that the findings come at a time when the Trump administration “has sought to elevate the role of religion in public life, including by establishing the White House Office of Faith, beginning government meetings with Christian prayers, and encouraging federal workers to express their faith in the workplace.”
White House Faith Office
In February 2025, President Donald Trump signed an executive order establishing a White House Faith Office.
The office was tasked with working alongside faith and community leaders to develop policy recommendations for combating faith-based discrimination, strengthening religious liberty, and strengthening families and marriages.
In February of this year, Trump said during the National Prayer Breakfast that there were many signs that faith was returning to the United States.
“Religion is back, now, hotter than ever before,” Trump said in his speech at the Washington Hilton on Feb. 5.
“Thankfully, as we gather today, there are many signs that religion is coming back. Now, it’s no longer signs.
“It’s just coming back; it’s coming back so strong. You know, your churches are filling up.”
COVID Origins, Lab-Leak Accountability, And The Next Pandemic Threat
The Hudson Institute hosted Dr. Steven Quay on Monday afternoon for a discussion on COVID-19 origins, during which he presented genetic evidence from his new book, The Code as Witness, arguing that the virus originated through gain-of-function research in a Chinese lab.
Years later, there has still been no accountability for what Quay argues was a Chinese lab leak that killed more than one million Americans and caused U.S. economic damages in excess of $18 trillion. Nor has there been a unified U.S. government consensus on the lab-leak theory, let alone on potential consequences for China or Dr. Anthony Fauci.
In the roughly one-hour discussion, which was opened by Sen. Roger Marshall (R-Kan.), a leading voice for stronger oversight of high-risk biological research, Quay, a Hudson senior fellow, said features encoded in the virus’s genetic material point directly to lab manipulation rather than natural zoonosis.
Quay warned that irresponsible and unregulated gain-of-function research is accelerating globally and could produce pathogens far deadlier than the one that caused COVID.
Last week, Outgoing Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard declassified a set of internal intelligence slides documenting a long-running US program that has funded a global network of biolabs that handle dangerous pathogens – including dozens in Ukraine.
Returning to Quay’s discussion at Hudson, he pointed to several genetic features he says are difficult to explain by natural evolution alone, making it impossible. These include the furin cleavage site, the virus’s early optimization for human ACE2 receptors, the ORF8 gene, restriction-enzyme patterns, and the rapid D614-to-G614 mutation.
Hudson Senior Fellow David Asher, drawing on decades of national security and intelligence work at the State Department, spoke with Quay about the confluence of the U.S. governmentand scientists who censored the lab-leak theory.
Asher told Quay that, years after the pandemic, there is still no formal COVID commission that gives the American people a clear understanding of where the virus came from, who should be held responsible, or a unified government consensus on the virus.
The Quay-Asher discussion then shifted to the biosecurity policy. They spoke of the urgent need for accountability, biosafety reform, and risk reduction as gain-of-function research accelerates globally.
Even with no clear federal government consensus on COVID origins, a recent YouGov poll demonstrated sharp partisan divides among the American people: 80% of Republicans and 47% of Democrats say the virus came from a Chinese lab. Meanwhile, 66% of Republicans and 26% of Democrats think it is definitely or probably true that the virus was released on purpose.
The American people demand accountability. It is time for a COVID commission.
“The Situation Has Become Unsustainable”: Apple To Hike Prices To Offset Soaring Memory Costs
Up until now, Americans primarily hated the flood of data centers popping up around the country like mushrooms (at least those that haven’t been canceled or delayed due to regulatory pushback, lack of electricity or outright hostility) because of surging electricity prices and the rising tide of unemployment as chabots gradually make America’s white collar workers obsolete. Now they can add surging consumer price inflation to the list of reasons to hate data centers, whose ravenous demand for memory has sent prices to record highs.
According to the WSJ, Apple plans to raise prices on its products to offset the surging costs of memory and storage chips, CEO Tim Cook said in an interview with The Wall Street Journal.
“Unfortunately, price increases are unavoidable,” he said. “We’re doing our best to mitigate the huge increases that are being passed to us, and we’ve been trying to shield our customers from the increases, but the situation has become unsustainable.”
Cook declined to offer details on the timing or scale of the planned price increases, nor which products would be affected. Apple’s next major product launch is likely to be in September when it releases the iPhone 18 lineup, expected to include a new foldable iPhone.
Price increases, especially for Macs and iPads, could come sooner. Apple – which is only the first major consumer electronics company to succumb to surging input prices and pass them through to consumers – raised the starting price of the Mac Mini last month in between launch events.
Skyrocketing demand for memory and storage chips from artificial-intelligence companies has pushed up their cost so much that Apple would have to raise device prices substantially to maintain its profit margins. Passing the higher cost on to consumers while maintaining its profit margin would add about $270 to the price of the next iPhone Pro model, or a price increase of more than 20% estimates research firm TechInsights.
While Apple doesn’t report the gross profit margins on individual products, the TechInsights research suggests the margin on the $1,099 iPhone 17 Pro was a tidy 47%. To maintain that profit margin for the iPhone 18 Pro, based on estimated costs, the company would have to charge $1,371. Because the company likes standardized pricing, the starting price tag would more likely be $1,299, yielding a 44% gross profit.
And this calculation doesn’t account for a potential new camera system that will also cost Apple about 50% more than previous models, according to supply chain analyst Ming-Chi Kuo. In that case, following the same math, Apple could set the starting price of the iPhone 18 Pro at $1,399—or higher.
While chips have emerged as the key bottlenecks for agentic-focused data centers, even more so than GPUs/CPUs, the resulting price surge has prompted manufacturers like Samsung and SK Hynix to focus production on high end HBM products, while shrinking supply for more modest DRAM products which however are used in virtually every modern product; chips for memory and storage are key components inside most computing devices, including smartphones, laptops, game consoles, medical equipment and even cars. But with AI servers gobbling up rapidly increasing volumes of those chips – with little to none price discrimination since it is the latest batch of bondholders who ends up footing the bill – even a company as rich and powerful as Apple is struggling to secure supply.
Since last year, when Google, Microsoft, Meta and Amazon began announcing big increases in their capital spending budgets, the prices for memory and storage chips have both quadrupled. TechInsights expects both prices to continue increasing into 2027, unless a flood of Chinese chips hits the market .
Memory, also called DRAM, and storage, also called NAND, are like elements of a mid-20th-century office: The memory is a desk that holds all the papers a worker needs to perform a task, while storage is the filing cabinet that holds everything else. Smartphones use DRAM memory to run apps currently in use; they use NAND storage to file away photos and videos, for example. And since both products were (and are) a pure commodity, there were are substitute makers in the Western world besides the big memory companies.
Cook said prices for memory and storage are both issues for the company, though he focused on the DRAM market in particular, calling out the increased allocations going to so-called high-bandwidth memory that is used for AI servers.
“There’s less supply at a time when consumers want devices and the memory guys are passing along huge price increases,” said Cook. “We definitely need memory pricing and supply to return to reasonable levels for consumer products. That’s the bottom line.”
Three companies dominate the market for DRAM memory: Samsung and SK Hynix in South Korea, and Micron in the U.S. Makers of NAND storage include those three companies as well as Kioxia and Sandisk. Their stock prices, along with their profits, have exploded over the past twelve months: Micron and SK Hynix shares have risen more than 800% while Kioxia and Sandisk have risen 4,600%.
Seeing the unprecedented demand, memory companies are building more factories: Morgan Stanley forecasts that production capacity for DRAM wafers, the silicon discs on which chips are patterned, will grow 30% by 2027. Yet as suppliers prioritize the specialized AI memory, wafers for consumer tech will fall up to 15% short of demand, Morgan Stanley estimates, although the bank may be conflicted due to its substantial exposure to various companies in the AI ecosystem, which would be terribly vexed if Morgan Stanley were to reach a different conclusion (like, for example, that China – that great commodity crushed – is coming online with massive output in the coming months which will send prices for at least baselines DRAM and NAND sharply lower).
While China has national champion companies in memory and storage, but due to national-security rules, American companies would likely require licenses to work with them. When asked if those restrictions should be loosened, Cook said: “I think everything needs to be on the table,” adding, “I think we should look at all supply.”
He is right: as we showed recently, chips and memory have emerged as one of the biggest drivers of wholesale inflation, and now that it is being passed on to consumers, it is only a matter of time before the inflation-averse White House starts making very loud noises, demanding an artificial limit on how high memory prices can rise.
Apple is late to the party: Companies that make PCs, game consoles, smartphones and more have already raised prices, including Hewlett-Packard, Dell and Nintendo. A consortium of industry associations recently sent a letter to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick complaining about the overallocation of memory to AI buyers and asking for help to increase supply.
Morgan Stanley estimates a 15% bump for prices of smartphones and PCs in the U.S. this year. This price hike will have a limited impact on the consumer price index, which has only a small weighting for such devices. Yet any price increase on the popular iPhone will immediately grab Washington’s attention.
Compounding the issue is Apple’s need for additional DRAM to support more AI features, including a rebooted Siri announced last week. And the company has long used NAND storage upgrades to boost profits, charging $100 to $200 for extra increments that cost it just a fraction of that.
In the interview, Cook said Apple stands ready to use its cash reserves to boost memory supply. “We’re willing to use our balance sheet to help be a part of the solution,” he said but added that “obviously, more capacity is needed.”
Cook declined to offer specifics. It is unclear how Apple could match, let alone beat, the deal terms that AI hyperscalers are offering to lock up supply, and how much of a hit to the company’s profits such a move would be. Those companies are signing three-to-five year agreements with huge cash prepayments that Apple is unlikely willing to match, given its long history of disciplined spending.
Cook said Apple wouldn’t use its cash and silicon expertise to build its own memory and storage factories. “We can’t do everything,” said Cook. “We know what we’re good at.”
Apple spends in the low tens of billions of dollars per year on memory and storage, according to people familiar with its costs, making it one of the largest customers in the world. Historically it has used its heft to wring the lowest prices out of suppliers, playing them off each other and leaving them little profit. As AI companies have stormed into the market, suddenly Apple has to wait in line.
Cook said during his time working in the electronics supply chain, from IBM to Compaq to Apple, he had never seen a commodity price swing like the one from the past six months. “This is a hundred-year flood,” said Cook. “I’ve never seen anything like it in any area in over 40 years.”
Luckily, every flood comes with a drain, and as usual it is made in China. A few weeks ago, we reported that “China Begins Flooding The Market With DRAM And NAND Memory Chips“, and followed up with a report yesterday that China’s DRAM giant CXMT has gotten a final node for the largest mainland IPO since 2022 (as has YMTC, China’s leading NAND flash maker, #4 globally). In short, CHina is preparing to do to this commodity market what it has done to every other one in recent years: unleash massive price cuts to steal market share, and leave the incumbents in the trash heap (just look at Europe’s imploding auto manufacturing sector).
Sure enough, we are now getting reports that none other than Google is evaluating procuring DRAM from Chinese vendors.
And once Google can do it, so will everyone else, at which point sit back and watch as the epic memory bubble crashes and burns.
“Zero Hormuz Dependency”: UAE Races To Rewire Energy Flows, Bypassing Chokepoint Chaos
The shuttered Strait of Hormuz is expected to reopen within days, though conflicting reports suggest the US-Iran memorandum of understanding could be formally signed as early as today, Thursday, or Friday. Either way, the interim peace deal appears likely to be signed within the next 48 hours, setting the stage for energy flows through the critical maritime chokepoint to begin normalizing, a process that could take many months.
The broader takeaway is that buyers of crude, refined products, and LNG now have to rethink their sourcing stack after the US-Iran conflict effectively shut Hormuz for several months. That means diversifying supply chains and reducing exposure to single-point maritime chokepoints. For Gulf energy producers, the Hormuz disruption will accelerate a massive push toward alternative export channels that bypass Hormuz entirely, potentially reducing Tehran’s ability to use the strait as a lever in future conflicts.
In the first month of the conflict, Saudi Arabia’s Hormuz-bypassing East-West pipeline ramped up to its full capacity of 7 million barrels a day, allowing the Kingdom to divert flows from Persian Gulf loading terminals to those at Yanbu on the Red Sea.
Separately, there has been a rush across other Gulf states to identify alternatives to Hormuz, and major plans to begin building new pipeline routes may soon be approaching.
Earlier this month, Sheikh Khaled Ahmad Al-Sabah, managing director of international marketing at Kuwait Petroleum, said Kuwait is among the countries that have reportedly held talks with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates about potential cross-border pipelines that could connect Gulf oil production to buyers without relying on tanker transits through Hormuz.
New signals from Gulf states seeking to rewire energy flows emerged on Wednesday in a new note citing a top UAE official who said the energy exporter is preparing to have “zero dependence” on Hormuz.
“We’re moving toward having zero Hormuz dependency and that’s regardless of whether it’s open or not,” UAE’s Minister of Foreign Trade Thani Al Zeyoudi told Bloomberg in an interview. “It’s going to open and we hope that will happen quickly, but we will not stop the new plan.”
The plan includes major investments in pipelines, rail, and road links from UAE ports in the Persian Gulf to Dibba, Fujairah, Khor Fakkan and at least one new harbor on the Gulf of Oman coast.
Abu Dhabi has already announced plans to fast-track a second crude pipeline to Fujairah by 2027 and is now reviewing a third petroleum pipeline, as well as ways to export petrochemicals, LNG, and other energy products without relying on Hormuz.
The UAE can reroute more crude through pipelines to eastern ports, but LNG, aluminum, container imports, and other commodities are harder to shift. Dubai’s Jebel Ali remains the world’s largest container hub outside Asia, and moving more cargo through eastern ports would raise inland transport costs and boost shipping times.
In recent weeks, the Iraqi cabinet approved plans to accelerate crude exports through the Kurdistan-Turkey pipeline network, which would more than triple its existing shipments from 220,000 barrels per day to 770,000.
“Iraq is in a much more complicated situation because we know that most, if not all, of its oil transits through Hormuz,” Alan Lemangnen, senior economist at QuantCube, told CNBC in an interview.
What is becoming increasingly clear is that the Hormuz squeeze is rewiring the Persian Gulf’s energy map. Over time, that shift could render Iran’s leverage over the Hormuz chokepoint far less effective, if not obsolete.
Perhaps Tehran has already read the writing on the wall. That may help explain why Iranian officials are now willing to play ball with the Trump administration through an MoU to reopen Hormuz and eventually enter talks over the country’s nuclear ambitions.
NBA player James Harden was arrested over the weekend in Texas for “unlawful carry of a firearm in a motor vehicle.”
But wait, how can carry in a vehicle be unlawful in a state like Texas, where constitutional carry is the law of the land?
On Saturday, June 13 at around 3am, Harden was driving a Mercedes sedan that was part of a group of five vehicles traveling through downtown Houston, Texas.
According to reports, one of the vehicles was pulled over near the 1600 block of Jefferson Street, when Harden pulled up behind it in his vehicle. During the interaction, an officer noticed a handgun sitting in the cupholder of Harden’s vehicle – for which he was arrested under a misdemeanor charge and taken to Harris County Jail after Harden indicated that the handgun was his.
The charge? “Unlawful carrying of a weapon in a motor vehicle,” a misdemeanor under Texas state law.
But how can that be possible – isn’t Texas a constitutional carry state?
What could possibly qualify as “unlawful carry?”
Well, according to the statute, the carry of a handgun in a vehicle is illegal when:
“The handgun is in plain view, unless the person is 21 years of age or older or is licensed to carry a handgun under Subchapter H, Chapter 411, Government Code, and the handgun is carried in a holster”
Translated from legalese, this means that Texas views any handgun “in plain view” not secured in a holster by someone without a state issued permit to carry, a crime.
A carve out in Texas’s constitutional carry law, the statue says that if a handgun is visible in a vehicle, it must be in a holster.
According to sources writing on the technicalities of the law itself, a firearm not in a holster must be hidden. In a glove box, console, under the seat or in a bag — those are all perfectly legal.
Having the gun out on the seat? Go to jail.
This seems like a massive oversight for a state that by most measurements, is one of the most pro-gun states in the country.
According to reporting, Harden owns the gun legally, and there was no crime committed. While there are conflicting reports about the traffic stop as to whether Harden himself had made a traffic violation or not, the carrying of the firearm itself was legal under Texas law.
The only exception was the technicality of Texas law requiring that handguns in plain view by those without a permit be secured in a holster.
And for that, Harden had to be arrested and taken to jail.
This story got a ton of attention over the weekend because Harden is a famous basketball player, but we at GOA are left thinking, how many other law-abiding gun owners has this exact situation happened to?
Texas must change this law.
That’s why we spoke out about this situation right as it happened.
If there’s one message, we’d like politicians in Texas to take away from this situation it’s this:
Texas must change its law.
The glaring hypocrisy from a state that has constitutional carry, to be arresting someone for something so pedantic as not having that gun in a holster, in plain view in their own car, committing no crime, is outrageous.
While this may have happened to a celebrity – regular, every day, law-abiding gun owners in Texas are at risk of the exact same situation happening to them.
Lawmakers in Texas should not let that stand.
Change the law. Nobody should be arrested for carrying their firearm simply because of the position the firearm is observed in by law enforcement; it’s a right – not a privilege.
The US and Iran have remotely signed their memorandum of understanding to end the war and open the Strait of Hormuz ahead of schedule, and the agreement is now in effect, Axios reports.
Trump admits energy stockpiles “run out in about four weeks”
MoU signing could be As Early As Today
Trump Says Will “Drop Bombs” If Bad Final Deal
14-Point US-Iran Draft Deal Released, Set For Friday Signing
Trump Signs Iran Deal Remotely Ahead Of Schedule
Confirming earlier speculation, Axios reports that the U.S. and Iran have remotely signed their memorandum of understanding to end the war and open the Strait of Hormuz, and the agreement is now in effect. The signing – which took place electronically between Trump, Vance and Ghalibaf – reportedly took place at dinner in France alongside President Emmanuel Macron.
The signing was supposed to happen in Switzerland on Friday, but a diplomat from a mediating country and a second source familiar told Axios earlier on Wednesday that there had been discussions about signing and implementing it earlier
The diplomatic source said the discussions around accelerating the timetable were intended to open the strait sooner than Friday, as both parties were in agreement on that issue. Another factor may have been the political pressure on the White House to release the text of the MOU, which it sitll hasn’t done officially. The source familiar with the discussions claimed it was Iran that demanded the text not be published until the formal signing, and denied the White House was responding to political pressure.
The only “public release” so far consisted of a senior administration official reading the agreement to reporters in a briefing call on Wednesday, after days of confusion about what was in it.
Ahead of the signing, Iran’s foreign ministry said the sides had agreed that the MOU should be signed electronically by both presidents. For Iran, the signing represents a major victory as it now stands to receive billions in unfrozen (and other) funds from the US and Gulf sources.
While it’s now just a formality, the meeting between the U.S. and Iranian delegations headed by Vice President Vance and Iranian parliamentary speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf is still expected to take place as planned on Friday in Switzerland. They are expected to discuss the launching of negotiations on Iran’s nuclear program.
The signing took place after this remarkable press conference earlier in the day in which Trump tried to justify conceding to Iran’s terms:
As BBC’s Siavash Ardalan writes, Trump’s responses to the reporters’ questions to justify the agreement with Iran were bizarre and unprecedented in their own way:
They asked him how he could allow $300 billion in investment in Iran. He said, “We’ve already inflicted $2 trillion in damage on Iran; $300 billion is nothing in comparison.”
They asked why he’s giving Iran tens of billions of dollars. He said, “If we don’t return their own money to them, other countries will be afraid to put their money in our banks, and then the dollar’s position will weaken.”
They asked why the missile issue isn’t in the agreement. He said, “We’ve already destroyed 85% of their missiles anyway; the rest are buried underground, and besides, we sell air defense systems to the countries in the region so they won’t worry about Iran’s missiles.”
They asked if he’s not worried that Iran will say, “We’re only producing nuclear energy for civilian purposes.” He said, “You can’t tell everyone else to produce electricity with nuclear power while only Iran can’t.”
Finally, he said, “If we continue sanctioning Iran, 91 million Iranians will die of hunger—what’s the point of that, really?”
Oh, and he joked that “If [the Iran deal] works out, I’m going to take the credit; if it doesn’t work out, I’m blaming [Vance].”
Meanwhile, in the aftermath of the signing, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman said Israel’s continued attacks on Lebanon would be regarded as a breach of commitments, and adds that the US is responsible to force Israel to abide by the deal; the official also said the 60-day period starts today.
Trump Admits
President Trump’s comment at the tail end of the G7 press conference about rapidly depleting crude reserves may have been the clearest admission yet of what is really driving the urgent push for an MoU with Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
“We run out of reserves in about four weeks,” Trump told reporters.
Trump said the world would have run out of oil reserves in 4 weeks, put pressure for a peace agreement.
With global SPRs being aggressively tapped to offset lost Gulf energy production while the Strait of Hormuz remains shuttered, the clock is ticking closer and closer to midnight to fully reopen the waterway to restart the normalization process of tanker transits, which may take months.
The longer Hormuz stays closed, the faster emergency stockpiles are drained, raising the risk of an energy cliff, then a much worse energy shock. That urgency appears to be the real force behind the race to secure an interim agreement with Tehran.
Talk of Accelerated MoU Signing Timeline
Axios reports that US, Iranian, and mediator officials are discussing an accelerated timeline for signing the memorandum of understanding, moving it from Friday to as early as Wednesday, potentially via electronic signature.
More from Axios:
The diplomatic source said the discussions around accelerating the timetable were intended to open the strait of Hormuz sooner than Friday, as both parties were in agreement on that issue.
Another factor could be the political pressure on the White House to release the text of the MOU.
The source familiar with the discussions claimed it was Iran that demanded the text not be published until the formal signing, and denied the White House was responding to political pressure.
Even if the electronic signing occurs early, Vice President J.D. Vance and Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf are still expected to meet on Friday in Switzerland to launch multi-month talks on Iran’s nuclear program.
The takeaway here is that both sides appear aligned on quickly reopening the Hormuz chokepoint, as the world faces an energy cliff.
Watch Trump
President Trump is set to hold a very important press conference at the conclusion of the G7 summit in France.
Trump Tells Reporters At G7: We’ll “Go Back To Dropping Bombs” if he Doesn’t Like Final Deal
President Trump told reporters on the sidelines of the G7 summit in France that the pending U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding is “not final” and warned that if he “doesn’t like it … we’ll go back to shooting at them.”
“If I don’t like it [MoU], we’ll go back to shooting at them, dropping bombs on their head,” Trump said.
Trump repeated: “If they don’t behave, we’ll go right back to dropping bombs right smack in the middle of their head.”
He added, “Because they misbehaved for 47 years. But nobody could’ve made this deal. The Obama-era JCPOA handed them $1.7 billion and gave them hundreds of millions of dollars in a Boeing 757. He tried to bribe his way out. I did not do that.”
BREAKING: “If I don’t like it, we’ll go back to shooting at them, dropping bombs on their head.”
President Trump warns Iran that any change to the peace agreement or failure to comply could bring an immediate military response.
The proposed deal, expected to be signed on Friday in Geneva, would extend the U.S.-Iran ceasefire for 60 days and create a framework for negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program.
14-Point US-Iran Draft Deal Set For Friday Signing
With US and Iranian officials preparing to formally sign a memorandum of understanding in Switzerland on Friday, the conflict is entering the much-needed diplomatic phase to avert a potentially disastrous energy cliff. The MoU would open a 60-day negotiating window aimed at ending the war, restoring maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, and hammering out the future of Iran’s nuclear program.
Bloomberg published the text of the 14-point draft MoU, offering the clearest look yet at the proposed trade: de-escalation and sanctions relief for Iran, in exchange for a ceasefire across all fronts, commitments on shipping access, and a broader nuclear deal to be finalized by the end of summer.
But Iran’s Tasnim news agency cited an unnamed official earlier today, saying some of the MoU published by Bloomberg is inaccurate. The report did not specify the discrepancies. Bloomberg noted that some of the wording could be different between the English and Persian versions.
Below is the text of the 14-point draft MoU:
1. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States, together with their allies in the current war, declare upon the signing of this Memorandum of Understanding an immediate and permanent end to the war on all fronts, including Lebanon, and undertake that from now on they will not launch any hostile action against each other, and will refrain from the threat or use of force against each other. The final agreement will confirm the provisions of this Article and the remaining Articles
2. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States undertake to respect each other’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, and to refrain from interfering in each other’s internal affairs
3. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States undertake to negotiate and reach a final agreement within a maximum period of 60 days, extendable by mutual consent
4. Immediately upon the signing of this Memorandum of Understanding, the United States Lift the naval blockade and prevent any interference or obstruction against the Islamic Republic of Iran, and restore traffic within a maximum of 30 days to its full capacity; the traffic of ships shall be proportional to the pre-war volume of traffic on the part of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The United States also undertakes to withdraw its forces from the surrounding areas within 30 days after the final agreement
5. Upon signing this Memorandum of Understanding, the Islamic Republic of Iran will immediately take steps to ensure that the movement of merchant ships from the Persian Gulf to the Sea of Oman and vice versa is resumed within 30 days to the pre-war volume, taking into account the need for the removal of technical obstacles and the neutralization of mines by Iran.
6. The United States undertakes, together with its regional partners, to create a comprehensive plan agreed upon by both parties for the rehabilitation and economic development of the Islamic Republic of Iran, While ensuring financing of at least $300 billion. The implementation mechanism of this plan, as part of the final agreement, will be formulated within 60 days.
7. The United States commits to ending, on a schedule to be agreed upon as part of the final agreement, all types of sanctions currently facing the Islamic Republic of Iran, including resolutions of the United Nations Security Council and the Board of Governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), and all unilateral U.S. sanctions, both primary and secondary.
8. The Islamic Republic of Iran reiterates that it will never produce nuclear weapons. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States have agreed that the fate of enriched material and the fate of all other mutually agreed nuclear-related issues, including Iran’s nuclear needs, will be adequately addressed in a final agreement; the final agreement will confirm the provisions of this Article.
9. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States agree that, pending a final agreement, they will maintain the status quo: Iran will maintain the status quo on its nuclear program, and the United States will not impose new sanctions on Iran or strengthen its forces in the region.
10. The United States undertakes that immediately after the signing of this Memorandum of Understanding, and until the date of the lifting of sanctions, the United States Treasury Department will issue waivers for exports of Iranian crude oil, petrochemical products and their derivatives, and all related services, including banking, insurance, transportation, and the like.
11. The United States undertakes that, in light of the progress of negotiations towards a final agreement, frozen or restricted funds and assets of the Islamic Republic of Iran will be released and made fully available. These funds, whether held in the master account or transferred, will be used for any final beneficiary payment determined by the Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran and will be fully available for use. The United States undertakes to issue all necessary permits and licenses on this basis.
12. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States agree that an implementation mechanism will be established to oversee the successful implementation of and future commitment to the Final Agreement.
13. Following the signing of this Memorandum of Understanding, and upon receipt of assurances regarding the commencement of implementation of Articles 4, 5, 10, and 11 of this Memorandum of Understanding, and the continued implementation of these steps, the Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States will enter into negotiations for a Final Agreement solely with respect to the remaining Articles.
14. The final agreement will be approved through a binding resolution of the UN Security Council
Based on the text above, the first take of the MoU appears to be front-loaded economic relief for Tehran in exchange for a ceasefire, a nuclear freeze, and commitments to negotiate hard topics, such as the nuclear program, at a later date.
Who Stands To Benefit:
Tehran benefits most directly because it gets economic oxygen, oil waivers, frozen funds, sanctions relief language, and reduced US military pressure in the region.
Hezbollah and Iran-aligned actors also benefit if “all fronts, including Lebanon” locks in a ceasefire that constrains Israeli operations.
And, of course, the global economy because global shippers benefit if Hormuz reopens and war risk premiums in crude oil collapse.
The Gulf states benefit if the conflict ends because energy exports through the Strait of Hormuz will resume. A report on Tuesday said that QatarEnergy was planning to ramp up LNG production in the coming months.
Where is Leverage Lost:
The US loses some coercive leverage once the Hormuz blockade ends, oil waivers are granted, and asset-release mechanisms begin.
Israel loses freedom of action if the agreement binds the Lebanon front and limits further strikes.
Sanctions and hawks lose leverage because the draft moves quickly toward broad sanctions dismantlement.
The urgency behind the MoU and locking in peace talks for 60 days, with a formal signing event at the Bürgenstock resort in Switzerland on Friday, stems mainly from the world being headed for an energy cliff, as SPRs globally were being drained to offset the loss of Gulf production with the Hormuz chokepoint shuttered. Brent crude futures edged down overnight, trading around $79 a barrel on Wednesday morning.
One of the biggest uncertainties remains the Strait of Hormuz. President Trump stated that the critical waterway will reopen permanently and be toll-free, but the MoU suggests the toll-free arrangement may only last through the 60-day negotiation period. Another major uncertainty is Tehran’s compliance.
Most Important Overnight Headlines (courtesy of Bloomberg):
US-Iran Deal Framework
• The US and Iran plan to formally sign a memorandum of understanding on Friday, June 19, 2026 in Switzerland, paving the way for 60 days of talks aimed at ending the war and limiting Iran’s nuclear program
• Iran will immediately take steps to reopen the Strait of Hormuz once the tentative deal is signed and will be allowed to sell its oil without restrictions, according to leaked copies of an interim agreement
• Iran is set to receive broad financial incentives including the right to sell oil immediately, access to a $300 billion development fund, and eventual access to frozen assets
• The US would secure at least $300 billion to rebuild Iran after the war under the accord Web Content – US 6:43 AM
• The memorandum states only that Iran’s stockpile of near-bomb-grade uranium be ‘adequately addressed,’ leaving unresolved the fate of enough material to fuel multiple weapons
International Reactions
• Senate Republicans are pressing the Trump administration for details on the deal and signaled Congress will ultimately vote on the final agreement
• European officials are wary of committing naval ships to clear Iranian mines from the Strait of Hormuz because of confusion about how the work would be done and Trump’s strict end-of-week timeline
• China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi called for greater international support for the next phase of Iran-US peace talks on Tuesday, cautioning that the interim agreement marks only the beginning of a longer peace process
• European allies disagree with Trump’s optimism that trade can resume by week’s end and have practical questions about what was agreed before committing to de-mining missions
Shipping and Energy Markets
• A third fully-loaded crude tanker, the Suezmax Sonia I capable of hauling about 1 million barrels, left the Iranian port of Chabahar on Tuesday night and crossed the US blockade line heading toward Singapore
• Two oil tankers heading toward Africa U-turned in the Indian Ocean this week, switching destinations to the Middle East as shipowners race to re-position vessels ahead of the possible Strait of Hormuz reopening
• Qatar is beginning to bring some of its LNG tankers back to the Middle East, with at least four empty vessels recently heading toward the region after being idle or heading in a different direction
• Brent oil fell below $80 a barrel on Tuesday for the first time in more than three months as the US-Iran deal boosted expectations for a revival in supply
• The prediction market Kalshi assigns a 51% probability that Strait of Hormuz traffic will return to normal before August 1 and a 68% probability before September 1
Oil Market Impact
• The IEA said world oil consumption will slump by 1.1 million barrels a day this year, the biggest drop since the Covid pandemic in 2020, as higher fuel prices and disruptions curb buying
• The IEA previously expected a decline of about 420,000 barrels a day, making the revised forecast much deeper than anticipated
• A potential peace deal paves the way for a renewed supply glut in 2027, according to the IEA
Rare Earth Stocks Pop After G7 Unveils Plan To Reduce Dependence On China For Critical Minerals
Rare earth stocks spiked on Wednesday after G7 leaders agreed to strengthen coordination on critical minerals as they seek to reduce dependence on China-dominated supply chains, according to a new report from Reuters.
Without naming China directly, the group set a goal of limiting reliance on any single external supplier of rare earths and permanent magnets to less than 60% by 2030, with a longer-term target of 50%.
Reuters reports that to support that effort, the G7 plans to align critical mineral stockpiling strategies, beginning with lithium and nickel, and establish a new platform for policy coordination, data sharing, market monitoring, and crisis response. The platform will work closely with the International Energy Agency, which will provide analysis and early warnings of supply disruptions and market distortions.
The group also pledged to support investment across the entire critical minerals supply chain—from mining and processing to manufacturing—through development finance institutions, export credit agencies, and private-sector partnerships. Since the start of 2026, governments have announced 195 related projects totaling €64 billion ($74 billion) in investment.
Neha Mukherjee, research manager at consultancy Benchmark Mineral Intelligence commented: “The G7 statement is an important signal of intent, but the pace of diversification will ultimately depend on whether policy support translates into investment across the midstream and downstream parts of the value chain.”
Despite the commitments, analysts note that diversification will be difficult, particularly because China controls about 90% of global processed rare earth and permanent magnet production. The G7 is also exploring measures such as joint procurement, subsidies, quotas, and price-support mechanisms, while expanding domestic stockpiles and increasing recycling capacity to make recycled materials a significant share of critical mineral consumption by 2030.
Congress Moves To Boost Drone Funding As “War Unicorns” See Possible Procurement Supercycle
Needham analysts see increasing congressional support for drones and counter-drone technologies as lawmakers advance the latest FY27 National Defense Authorization Act and related appropriations bills. This is bullish for defense-tech “war unicorns” specializing in drones, robotics, autonomy, and counter-UAS systems, as the Trump war economy shifts into higher gear.
Analyst Austin Bohlig launched Needham’s FY27 Defense Budget Tracker, which provides clients with updates on next-generation defense technologies, especially drones, robotics, and autonomous systems.
Bohlig said the defense funding framework remains intact, with about $1.15 trillion in total defense spending and about $21 billion allocated for “defensive and offensive unmanned and autonomous systems.”
“While the proposed $350B defense reconciliation package, including ~$54B for unmanned-related initiatives, remains the largest outstanding variable, we remain upbeat on the overall funding outlook and believe additional funding for unmanned and autonomous systems is likely,” the analyst said, adding:
FY27 Defense Authorization and Appropriations Advance:
We believe Congress made incremental progress over the past two weeks in advancing the FY27 defense budget process. Both the House Armed Services Committee (HASC) and Senate Armed Services Committee (SASC) approved their respective versions of the FY27 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), authorizing $1.15T in defense spending and advancing the legislation to their respective chamber floors. On the funding side, the House Defense Appropriations Subcommittee recently approved a defense spending bill largely consistent with the Administration’s proposed FY27 budget, providing ~$1.1T in discretionary funding across the DoW. The bill is scheduled to be considered by the full House Appropriations Committee later this month, while the Senate Appropriations Committee needs to continue to draft its companion legislation in the coming months.
$21B Unmanned Budget Remains Intact as Congress Pushes for Additional Investment:
From an unmanned systems perspective, we believe the initial FY27 legislative drafts reinforce and potentially accelerate the DoW shift toward autonomy and robotic warfare. The President’s FY27 discretionary budget request includes ~$21B for autonomous systems spanning UAS, USV, UUV, UGV, C-UAS and enabling autonomy technologies. In our prior FY27 Deep Dive , we identified and analyzed many of the largest known unmanned and autonomy-related programs embedded within the defense budget. That said, we believe congressional testimony and proposed legislative language suggest strong bipartisan support for expanding these investments rather than scaling them back. As a result, we have a high degree of confidence that funding for unmanned and autonomous systems will at least meet the Administration’s proposed levels, with a growing possibility for upside as the legislative process continues to unfold.
Proposed $350B Incremental Defense Package Remains Up in the Air:
While the FY27 base defense budget appears to be advancing largely as expected, we believe the more important debate is the proposed $350B defense reconciliation package, which includes ~ $54B of incremental funding for autonomous systems through the Defense Autonomous Warfare Group (DAWG) program. This funding has become increasingly politicized over the past several months, particularly after Congress decided not to include it in the 2nd reconciliation package in May, creating uncertainty around the timing and likelihood of passage and, in our view, contributing to investor concerns across the defense sector. Although the timing remains uncertain, we remain upbeat on the ultimate funding outlook and believe there are multiple legislative pathways for the DoW to access incremental funding should the current reconciliation approach encounter delays.
Separately, Breaking Defense has reported that the defense spending bill would create a combatant command for drones, reinforcing the congressional push toward unmanned systems as the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East have spooked the U.S. military into the early chapters of a drone and counter-drone procurement super cycle. The modern battlefield has forever changed.
This is great news for war unicorns operating in the space, with years of tailwinds almost certainly ahead.
Fed Holds Rates Unchanged (As Expected), ‘Dots’ Signal Hawkish Bias As Warsh Takes Over
Tl;dr: No rate change (as expected) but a dramatically hawkish shift in The Fed’s bias (9 members seeing at least one hike this year). Statement smilled down dramatically, also biases towards hawkish focus on price stability (inflation) over employment: “The Committee will deliver price stability”.
“The market is focused on the dot plot for now, with half the committee thinking there will be hikes. The bear flattening seems reasonable based on that. Those who looked for a quiet first Warsh FOMC meeting must be disappointed.” – BBG rates strategist Ira Jersey
* * *
Since the last FOMC meeting (Jay Powell’s final one as Fed Chair) on April 29th, markets have shifted sharply with oil plunging (along with weakness in gold and bitcoin) while stocks have rallied sharply (shrugging off a brief dip) with bonds unchanged and the dollar modestly stronger…
The US macro-economic data has surprised considerably to the upside since the last FOMC (with strong ‘hard’ and ‘soft’ data and the labor market showing significant resilience)…
With both Growth and Inflation signals rising (a dilemma for The Fed)…
Additionally, the market has shifted significantly more hawkish since the last FOMC (still pricing cuts) and obviously dramatically more hawkish since the start of the war…
But this Fed meeting is different as Kevin Warsh takes the mantle from Jay Powell (who remains on the board) as Fed Chair with the key risk for markets is that expectations for a dovish Warsh have become elevated.
So What Did The Fed Do?
The Fed left rates unchanged as expected:
FED HOLDS BENCHMARK RATE IN 3.5%-3.75% RANGE IN UNANIMOUS VOTE
NO DISSENTS
And the statement was dramatically shortened, entirely dropping paragraph 4:
FED REMOVES STATEMENT REFERENCE TO ADDITIONAL RATE ADJUSTMENTS
No forward guidance in the statement
Read the full red-line below:
Balance Sheet
The Federal Open Market Committee on Wednesday adjusted the language of its policy implementation note to reflect that it instructs the Open Market Desk at the New York Fed to increase its purchases of Treasury bills “when appropriate.”
According to the implementation note FOMC instructed, “When appropriate, increase the System Open Market Account holdings of securities through purchases of Treasury bills and, if needed, other Treasury securities with remaining maturities of 3 years or less to maintain an ample level of reserves”
That compares with the April memo, which said: “Increase the System Open Market Account holdings of securities through purchases of Treasury bills and, if needed, other Treasury securities with remaining maturities of 3 years or less to maintain an ample level of reserves”
The ‘Dots’
The ‘Dots’ are clearly signaling an end to the ‘easing bias’ of the prior Fed: with nine members seeing at least one rate hike this year:
2026 dot distribution changes:
3 rate-hikes: from 0 to 1
2 rate-hikes: from 0 to 5
1 rate-hike: from 0 to 3
No rate change: from 7 to 8
1 rate cut: from 7 to 1
2 rate cuts: from 2 to 0
3 rate cuts: from 2 to 0
4 rate-cuts: from 1 (Stephen Miran) to 0
Only 18 of 19 officials submitted their ‘dots’ with some suggesting Warsh himself did not contribute
Could this be the last time we see the ‘Dots’ (with Warsh’s notable rejection of forward guidance)?
Economic Projections
The new inflation forecasts are really not good.
Core PCE is seen rising 3.3% this year, well above the 2.7% penciled in back in March.
That means no disinflation from right now, because the most recent core inflation reading was indeed 3.3%.
But, the median forecast of those submitting projections shows inflation slowing to 2.5% next year, but still notably up on 2.2% last time.
Growth is also seen slowing…
…but unemployment improving
All eyes now on Warsh’s first press conference as Fed Chair which is likely to be the most important event risk of the meeting.
Will Trump react to the lack of a rate-cut?
Will be ironic if Trump fires Warsh before EOD after he doesn’t cut
