US Business Confidence Soared In April Amid “Panic, Emergency” Buying Ahead Of Price Spike
Despite the recent slide in ‘hard’ macro data, analysts expected an incremental improvement in the preliminary April S&P Global PMI data this morning.
Consensus was right as both Services and Manufacturing surveys signaled an uptick in April
US business activity growth recovered slightly in April having slowed to near-stagnation in March following the outbreak of war in the Middle East. However, the overall pace of expansion remained subdued, most notably in the services economy where demand faltered.
Flash US Services PMI Business Activity Index: 51.3 (March: 49.8). 2-month high.
Flash US Manufacturing PMI: 54.0 (March: 52.3). 47-month high.
“…over the past three months we have seen the weakest expansion of output recorded since the start of 2024 with the war in the Middle East squarely to blame.”
The April PMI is broadly consistent with the economy struggling to manage annualized growth in excess of 1%, with the vast service sector acting as the principal drag.
“Orders for services ranging from travel and tourism to financial products barely rose as the war caused hesitancy for spending among both household and business customers, with surging prices and the prospect of higher borrowing costs acting as a further deterrent.”
There was better news from manufacturing:
“here an expansion of output and orders could be partly traced to the building of safety stocks, with survey respondents reporting “panic” and “emergency” buying ahead of price hikes and supply shortages in echoes of the problems seen during the pandemic.
While there is no prices paid (nor other subcomponents) released in the flash PMI, the market is looking for signs of inflation and margin pressures in the press release.
Prices paid have already picked up in the March ISM, although less so far in the PMI surveys.
And, as Williamson notes, not surprisingly, prices are already spiking higher in this environment, and not just for energy but for a wide variety of goods and services.
“The overall inflation picture is now the most worrying for almost four years.”
Balancing the risks of inflation lifting sharply higher against the underlying weakness of economic growth presents policymakers at the Fed with a growing dilemma.
However, as Williamson concludes, it will likely be increasingly hard to make a case for rate cuts if inflation follows the path signalled by the PMI while the economy continues to eke out only modest growth.
Trump Orders Navy ‘Shoot & Kill’ Iranian Boats, Says ‘Doesn’t Need A Deal’ As US Intercepts Tankers From Hormuz To Indian Ocean
Summary
Iranian sources to Chinese state media says ‘breakthrough’ toward restarting US talks again could come ‘tonight or tomorrow’.
Trump orders US Navy ‘shoot & kill’ small Iranian boats amid concern over mines in Hormuz. Says US now “doesn’t need a deal”.
Overnight, US military intercepted two more Iranian oil supertankers that tried to evade the blockade And in Indian Ocean US conducted a maritime interdiction and right-of-visit boarding of the sanctioned stateless vessel M/T Majestic X transporting oil from Iran.
Media sources confirm based on prior Trump post that US has extended the ceasefire indefinitely until ‘unified proposal’ can be brought forward by Tehran.
Iran announces first Hormuz tolls paid to the country’s central bank.
Iran Confirms First Hormuz Toll Payments to Central Bank
On Thursday Iran publicly announced for the first time that initial toll payments have been successfully transferred to the state-operated Central Bank of Iran (CBI):
The Iranian authorities have received revenue from tolls for ships crossing the Strait of Hormuz for the first time, Parliament Deputy Speaker Hamid Reza Hajibabai said.
“The first revenue received from tolls in the Strait of Hormuz has been transferred to the Central Bank’s account,” the Fars news agency quoted him as saying.
A specific monetary amount was not given – but it can go up to $2 million per tanker, officials have indicated. This week has seen reports that several Iranian tankers, with transponders off, have made it past the US Navy’s blockade – which the Pentagon has denied.
Latest From Trump: ‘Doesn’t Need a Deal’
Talks have stalled, and don’t appear to be any closer – despite some optimistic Thursday early headlines – as the two sides are as far away as ever on the nuclear issue. This is perhaps why Trump has agreed the US ‘doesn’t need a deal’ to get what it wants from Iran. The president shared a Washington Post article wherein the author argues that Iran is running out of [oil] storage, money, and time.
The below fresh Truth Social commentary also generally reflects recent reporting and the outlook of WaPo’s Marc Thiessen, of Iraq War infamy as a former longtime speechwriter for Donald Rumsfeld and President George W. Bush:
It should be noted that this is some of Marc Thiessen’s prior content and ‘reporting’. He’s the most hawkish of all the hawkish pundits, lately also appearing on Mark Levin. And…
Mark Thiessen, in Mark Levin interview Trump urged all his followers to watch, makes the case for troops on the ground in Iran: “We have to get what Donald Trump correctly calls ‘the nuclear dust.'”
Despite a ceasefire still technically being on, President Trump has just ordered the US Navy to “shoot and kill” any small Iranian boat which poses a threat to the Strait of Hormuz, especially ones “putting mines in the waters” of the strait. This risks rapid escalation already amid tit-for-tat tanker seizures, and it means a shooting war could soon open up in the contested vital waterway.
Oil, and markets reacted immediately on the escalatory order from Washington:
Status of Stalled Pakistan Negotiations: ‘Breakthrough’ Soon?
US hours began with a somewhat optimistic headline, picked up by Reuters, which was strangely enough first issued by Chinese media. Iranian sources said preparations for Iran-US negotiations could produce a breakthrough “tonight or tomorrow,” according to Chinese state broadcaster CCTV. However, this supposed ‘breakthrough’ speaks to merely getting to the table, which last weekend the sides failed to do in what was the planned, but canceled, second round.
Meanwhile a reported Pakistani proposal calls for reopening the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for a partial lifting of sanctions on Iran.
Pakistani officials blamed the US blockade, not internal divisions in Iran, for the stalled talks, while President Trump apparently having extended the ceasefire indefinitely, citing what he described as “fractured” leadership in Tehran.
Trump has extended the ceasefire indefinitely. From a Tuesday Truth Social Post: “Based on the fact that the Government of Iran is seriously fractured, not unexpectedly so and, upon the request of Field Marshal Asim Munir, and Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, of Pakistan, we have been asked to hold our Attack on the Country of Iran until such time as their leaders and representatives can come up with a unified proposal.”
Another US Boarding… in Indian Ocean
US forces conducted “a maritime interdiction and right-of-visit boarding of the sanctioned stateless vessel M/T Majestic X transporting oil from Iran in the Indian Ocean” overnight, the US Department of Defense said on X.
The statement said the vessel was operating within the area of responsibility of United States Indo-Pacific Command. “We will continue global maritime enforcement to disrupt illicit networks and interdict vessels providing material support to Iran, wherever they operate,” it said. “International waters cannot be used as a shield by sanctioned actors. The Department of War will continue to deny illicit actors and their vessels freedom of maneuver in the maritime domain.”
The interdiction video put out by US Central Command:
Overnight, U.S. forces carried out a maritime interdiction and right-of-visit boarding of the sanctioned stateless vessel M/T Majestic X transporting oil from Iran, in the Indian Ocean within the INDOPACOM area of responsibility.
The Hormuz chokepoint standoff between Tehran and the US military has become the center of the nearly two-month conflict. This standoff marks the next phase following an extended ceasefire with Iran after a second round of peace talks was canceled in Pakistan earlier this week.
On Wednesday, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said President Donald Trump is allowing Iran more time to respond to US demands, but expects Tehran to present a “unified proposal.”
“So, again, the president’s offering them a little bit of flexibility because we want to see a unified proposal to the president’s very strong proposal. And he’s made his red lines very clear,” Leavitt said.
Iran has stated that it will not resume negotiations with US officials while a US naval blockade on its ports remains in place, and the US military said it intercepted two Iranian oil supertankers that tried to evade the blockade.
In response to Trump’s ceasefire extension, Iran’s state TV cited the foreign ministry as saying it is monitoring developments and that the armed forces are ready for any threat.
With Hormuz effectively shut this week, roughly a fifth of global oil and LNG flows remain highly disrupted as the energy shock ripples from the Middle East to Asia, Africa, Europe, and finally the West Coast of the US.
A new Department of War assessment cited by The Washington Post said it would take US forces six months to clear the maritime chokepoint of mines deployed by Iranian naval forces.
Other overnight news includes Pentagon spokesperson Sean Parnell announcing that Secretary John C. Phelan will be stepping down. “On behalf of the Secretary of War and Deputy Secretary of War, we are grateful to Secretary Phelan for his service to the Department and the United States Navy,” Parnell said in a statement. “We wish him well in his future endeavors.”
Latest overnight headlines (courtesy of Bloomberg):
Ceasefire Extension
US President Donald Trump extended a ceasefire with Iran indefinitely on Tuesday evening with no deadline for its expiry
Iran has said it will not resume negotiations while a US naval blockade on its port remains in place
Vice President JD Vance had been prepared to fly to Islamabad for peace talks, but Tehran says it has no plans to take part in negotiations imminently
Hormuz
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz ground to a halt on Thursday after Iran fired on commercial ships and seized at least two vessels
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps seized the MSC Francesca and another ship identified as ‘Epaminondes’ on Wednesday
Iran has collected its first revenue from tolls imposed on the Strait of Hormuz, according to an Iranian lawmaker
Blockade
The US military intercepted two Iranian oil supertankers Hedy and Hero II that tried to evade its blockade earlier this week
At least two fully laden Iranian tankers sailed past a US blockade this week, ferrying roughly 9 million barrels of oil to market
Iranian gunboats fired on commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday while two of its own oil supertankers tested the US blockade
Market Impacts
Energy prices are rising again due to the impasse and worsening tension over the Strait of Hormuz
Emirates is operating at 65% of capacity with about 13% of airports in its network still cut off
Honeywell’s outlook assumes the conflict will last through the second quarter and decrease revenue by about $100 million to $150 million
Sweden may need to restrict energy use if supplies from the Middle East remain disrupted, with the government examining potential limits on fuel use
Chart of the Day (via UBS)
Commentary on energy markets from UBS analyst Catherine Gordon:
The UBS oil & gas team continues to argue the scale of disruption is underpriced in both oil and equities: the UBS base case had de-escalation in early April and gradual resumption of flows over 2Q26, keeping Brent at $100/bbl in 2Q26 and in the low to mid-$80s in 2H26, but this path requires actual improvements in flows very soon, rather than only a ceasefire.
Absent progress toward normalizing energy flows via the Strait of Hormuz within the next week or two, UBS warns the market risks a significant spike in oil and LNG prices, with longer disruption into May breaching recent highs of ~$120/bbl for front month and ~$150/bbl for Dated Brent.
Energy‑dedicated investors continue to focus on barrels versus rhetoric: each day of stalemate implies a forfeiture of roughly 12–15mb/d of production. The market is now moving into an energy “air pocket,” which should drive a convergence between dated and forward oil prices, or between divergent price expectations in the physical and paper energy markets.
From a trading perspective, broader equities have remained resilient on “de‑escalation” headlines, but the setup still feels very fragile, with technicals having done much of the work (CTAs slowing), positioning has caught up, and index‑level valuations are pricing in relatively little disruption.
Brent crude futures are trading at $103 a barrel.
*This is the running blog of the US-Iran conflict for Thursday.
Tanker Seizures By Iran Don’t Breach Ceasefire: White House
Not only did President Trump this week unilaterally extend the Iran ceasefire by at least three to five days (upon initial announcement), but he has refrained from ordering new attacks against the Islamic Republic even as the IRGC navy continued intercepting foreign tankers.
By Tuesday, he had extended the ceasefire indefinitely, writing on Truth Social: “Based on the fact that the Government of Iran is seriously fractured, not unexpectedly so and, upon the request of Field Marshal Asim Munir, and Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, of Pakistan, we have been asked to hold our Attack on the Country of Iran until such time as their leaders and representatives can come up with a unified proposal.”
On Wednesday, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) had targeted two cargo vessels – the MSC Francesca and the Epaminondas, a Greek-owned ship, and forced them to Iran’s coast, effectively seizing them.
Iran’s interceptions of ‘unauthorized’ vessels as it tries to maintain its side of the blockade has not abated, but has only intensified, and yet there’s no bombs away from the US or Israel.
This has left pundits wondering why the act of brazen tanker seizures by Iran does not constitute a ceasefire violation in Washington’s eyes. Both the US President and his Press Secretary have responded and explained:
President Trump told Fox News on Wednesday that there was “no time pressure” on holding a new round of talks or on the cease-fire, and “no timeline” for ending the war. Karoline Leavitt, the White House press secretary, told Fox separately that Mr. Trump did not view Iran’s reported ship seizures as a violation of the cease-fire.
The reported seizures happened after the U.S. Navy prevented dozens of ships from leaving or accessing Iranian ports as part of a blockade ordered by Mr. Trump.
“These were not US or Israeli ships, these were two international vessels,” Leavitt had sought to clarify in her comments to Fox News, explaining that the naval blockade the US has imposed “continues to be incredibly effective.”
Despite that on the US side of the blockade – which aims to halt any vessel going in or out that visited or plans to visit Iranian ports (or which is under sanctions) – it remains that shipping companies are mostly keeping vessels away from the strait due to the lingering immense risk. Thus far, at least a couple dozen of acceptable and US ‘approved’ ships have made it out based on CENTCOM permission
.@PressSec: “Iran has gone from having the most lethal navy in the Middle East to now acting like a bunch of pirates. They don’t have control over the Strait—this is piracy that we are seeing on display, and the naval blockade that the United States has imposed continues to be… pic.twitter.com/yCnQGfIe2c
All of this also comes after Wednesday reports that Iran had fired on a third ship, after already interdicting at least two, amid threats to continue to keep up the pressure and inflict pain on the global economy.
Some pundits have highlighted that it is the White House side that keeps backing off its threats to bomb Iran, while moving the goalposts of what constitutes a breach of the ceasefire. Perhaps US officials are increasingly aware they are on the brink of entering an intractable quagmire, but perhaps it’s already too late.
Landlords in London and the south-east of the UK are openly advertising flats and rooms exclusively for Muslim tenants – a practice that directly breaches the Equality Act 2010. The listings, spotted on Facebook, Gumtree and Telegram, use phrases such as “only for Muslims”, “for two Muslim boys or two Muslim girls” and “Muslims preferred”.
One company, Roshan Properties, posted dozens of listings stating “prefer Muslim boy”, “one double room is available for Muslims” and “suitable for Punjabi boy”. Other ads appeal specifically to Punjabi and Gujarati speakers or people from Kerala and Haryana, while some job vacancies on the same platforms are restricted to men only. Gumtree listings include requests for “Hindus only” tenants, and at least one post specified: “The house should be alcohol and smoke free.”
All of these advertisements appear to break the law. Landlords and letting agents are not allowed to specify a preference for a particular religion or race when letting a property. The Equality Act prohibits discrimination based on religion or belief, race and other protected characteristics. Landlords who breach it can be taken to civil court by a prospective tenant.
The practice is widespread. Properties are being advertised across boroughs including Ilford, Newham, Barking, Dagenham, East Ham, Redbridge, Walthamstow, Upton Park, Harrow and Newbury Park on Facebook pages such as “Renting room in London for Muslims” and “Muslim rents”.
Facebook removed at least one offending page after being alerted by the Telegraph investigation. One listing even appeared on an official estate agency website with the “Muslims preferred” reference quietly removed.
There is a narrow partial exception only if the landlord is renting out a room in their own home and sharing facilities such as a kitchen or bathroom with the tenant. Otherwise, these ads are completely illegal.
Imagine if landlords were advertising “White English only” properties.
The outrage would be instantaneous. Headlines screaming “racism”, “far-right”, “hate” would dominate every broadcast. Equality bodies would swarm in. MPs would demand inquiries. Yet here we have explicit religious and ethnic preferences being posted openly, and the response is… crickets from the usual guardians of tolerance. This is two-tier Britain laid bare.
This development does not happen in a vacuum. It arrives at the exact moment the UK government is obsessed with stamping out “anti-Muslim hostility” while turning a blind eye to parallel societies forming in plain sight.
Just weeks ago we highlighted that ALL members of the government’s own “anti-Muslim hostility” advisory group have troubling links to Islamist organisations. The state is effectively letting the fox write the rules for the henhouse.
In March the government urged schools to snitch on children and staff for any perceived “anti-Muslim hostility” in an Orwellian crackdown that treats questioning Islam as thoughtcrime.
Meanwhile, an explosive study out of Germany found that almost one in two Muslims under 40 holds Islamist attitudes – a fact the authorities would rather ignore while they police “Islamophobia” with ever greater zeal.
The pattern is unmistakable. Mass immigration without assimilation has created no-go cultural enclaves where open religious discrimination is normalised, yet the state’s enforcement arm only swings one way: against native Britons who dare to notice or complain. Landlords feel emboldened enough to post “Muslim only” ads because they know the real risk is not prosecution – it’s being labelled “Islamophobic” for enforcing colour-blind rules.
This is not tolerance. It is the slow surrender of equal rights under the law. Britain’s elites have imported a parallel legal and cultural system and are now bending the native one to accommodate it. The Equality Act, once sold as protection for everyone, is revealed as a one-way street.
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The move would deal a major blow to the PCK Schwedt refinery which supplies most of the fuel to Berlin, as well as jet fuel and heating oil for the city and the surrounding area. The cutoff will increase concerns over fuel availability just as war in the Middle East squeezes global energy supplies. It also adds to Germany’s fuel supply concerns as the Iran war disrupts flows from the Gulf.
While Kazakhstan has received no official communication from Moscow, it got an informal notification, Energy Minister Yerlan Akkenzhenov said Wednesday. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak confirmed the planned suspension, citing “current technical abilities,” according to Interfax.
Rosneft Deutschland confirmed it received information that flows will halt May 1, and said it’s assessing the potential impact on fuel supplies.
“At the same time, existing options will be utilised to ensure security of supply in Germany,” it said.
It also said that the lack of supplies from Kazakhstan – which cover about 17% of Schwedt’s needs – did not “ultimately jeopardise the security of supply of petroleum products in Germany.”
The Federal Network Agency, the country’s energy regulator, which acts as trustee of Rosneft Germany’s activities, said there might still be regional pricing effects, adding it was closely coordinating with the company.
Kazakhstan’s oil exports to Germany via Russia’s Druzhba pipeline totalled 2.146 million metric tons, or around 43,000 barrels per day, last year, an increase of 44% from 2024, and 730,000 tons in the first quarter of 2026. In the first quarter of this year, Kazakhstan almost doubled crude flows to Germany to 730,000 tons, equivalent to almost 60,000 barrels a day.
“For the month of May, our transit through the Atyrau-Samara link and further on via the Druzhba pipeline toward the Schwedt refinery is zero,” Akkenzhenov said, according to his press service. The Energy minister said Kazakhstan can ship oil via Russia’s Baltic port of Ust-Luga and the Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal on Russia’s Black Sea coast, Interfax reported.
The Schwedt refinery, which is part-owned by Shell Plc and Eni SpA, already gets some crude via Poland’s Baltic port of Gdansk, and Polish pipeline operator PERN said Wednesday it’s ready to supply more if needed.
The halt of flows via Druzhba “does not ultimately jeopardize the security of supply for petroleum products in Germany, even if the PCK Schwedt refinery were to operate at reduced capacity,” Germany’s Economy Ministry said in a statement.
Supplies to Germany have been carried over a northern section of the pipeline, separate from the southern one that supplies Hungary and Slovakia and is about to resume operation after repairs following a Russian drone strike in January. Its southern branch, which serves Hungary and Slovakia, was shut earlier this year following damage from a Russian attack on a key pumping station. Druzhba is one of the longest oil pipeline networks ever built.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said this week that repairs have now been completed, allowing the resumption of Russian flows along that section and paving the way for a much-needed €90 billion European Union loan so Ukrainian oligarchs can continue purchasing $500 million apartments in Monte Carlo.
The giant Druzhba pipeline was built in Soviet times to connect Russia’s oil network with refineries in central Europe. Germany cut ties with Moscow following 2022’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, but Hungary and Slovakia are still reliant on Russian barrels to feed their plants.
In 2023, PCK Raffinerie reached an agreement to receive Kazakh oil via the Druzhba link for the Schwedt facility, replacing the Russian volumes. The refinery is still majority-owned by a local unit of Russia’s Rosneft PJSC, which is under the temporary trusteeship of the German government.
Yesterday evening, the UK’s High Court ruled in favour of the Metropolitan Police in a legal challenge pertaining to the use of Live Facial Recognition Technology (LFR) across London’s transport network.
Specifically, their lawyers argued that the current powers claimed by police governing the use of LFR would breach articles 8, 10 & 11 of the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR),
But the High Court judges said “nah”, and dismissed the challenge in favour of the police.
Shocking, right?
The establishment judges voted in favour of the establishment cops using technology to violate people’s rights in the name of protecting the establishment.
‘Cause for a second there we didn’t know which way that might go.
The failure of this legal challenge will open the door for a national rollout of FTR across high streets and transport hubs up and down the country.
There’s a good, technical breakdown of the legal proceedings here.
The claimants have already stated they plan to appeal the ruling.
Personally, I question the decision to base the case on protecting the innocent from “errors” in the LFR tech, rather than the question of the right to privacy as a general principle, but I’m not a lawyer…and they were probably going to lose whatever they said.
All in all, it’s just another example of the increasing normalization of authoritarianism in the UK.
The UK Parliament has just passed a law banning smoking for everyone born after January 1st 2009, meaning the legal age of smoking will increase by one year every year until the last smokers die off.
Some will say “that’s good, tobacco is poison”, but I will always argue that people have the right to live as wisely or foolishly as they want, as long as they are not hurting other people.
And I don’t trust any government empowered to protect me “for my own good.”
Oh, and the British schools are going to be made to ban smartphones, too.
It’s all getting very claustrophobic in the UK right now.
But, in totally unrelated news, black balaclavas are relatively inexpensive and can be purchased from most major clothing retailers.
Outrage After Von Der Leyen Groups Turkey Into Malign Axis With Russia, China
Turkey’s government as well as some members of the European Parliament on Wednesday criticized recent remarks by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen suggesting Europe should not fall under the influence of Russia, Turkey, or China – calling the comments misleading and divisive.
Von der Leyen on Monday had casually grouped NATO member Turkey with China and Russia as malign influences on the continent, which contradicts the fact that the EU has relied on Turkey to play a key diplomatic role in the Ukraine war, as well as to absorb war refugees from the Middle East.
She had in the remarks declared that the EU “must succeed in completing the European continent so that it is not influenced by Russia, Turkey or China.”
She then urged Europe to “think bigger and more geopolitically” when it comes to the continent getting away from cheap Russian energy and low-cast Chinese labor. She argued for greater European independence, also amid tensions with the Trump administration.
Lawmakers from the Left Group in the European Parliament, including Belgian members Rudi Kennes and Marc Botenga, took Turkey’s side and slammed the remarks as “both inaccurate and very strange,” emphasizing that Turkey is a NATO ally and maintains multifaceted relations with the European Union.
“Turkey is still officially a candidate country for EU membership,” the officials noted. “These kinds of statements serve to split the world into ‘us’ and ‘others,’ as if there were some kind of purity test, and as if there were an intention to control the rest of the continent,” Botenga said.
Botenga further warned that framing international relations as “friends versus enemies” poses significant risks for global stability. One source also underscored why Brussels was quick to try and do damage control in an EU presser:
This rapid clarification underscores Brussels’ awareness of the sensitivity. Turkey remains a vital partner on multiple fronts: migration management, Black Sea security, energy transit, and regional stability. Yet the episode reveals an underlying unease in EU circles about Turkey’s independent foreign policy, especially at a time when some voices within Ankara are openly exploring alternatives to traditional Western alignments.
There was indeed some fast backtracking on the word choice and rhetoric…
The EU attempts to backtrack from Von der Leyen’s statement which has described Turkish influence as adversarial on par with China and Russia pic.twitter.com/q54ID5cIkA
Still, the elephant in the room is that Turkey is very much an geopolitical Eurasian outlier – on the hand possessing the second largest army in NATO, and on the other often doing things contrary to NATO and EU interests, such as cozying up to Moscow on certain key issues.
The UK is hosting (yesterday and today) a two-day multinational conference convening military planners from more than 30 countries as Britain and France renew efforts to re-open the Strait of Hormuz.
The two-day conference takes place just after U.S. President Donald Trump late on Tuesday extended the U.S.-Iran ceasefire until negotiations with Iran conclude “one way or the other.”
President Trump has also ordered that the U.S. blockade at the Strait of Hormuz remains in place.
Hopes of U.S.-Iran negotiations resuming as early as Wednesday were dashed after reports emerged that the trip of U.S. Vice President JD Vance to Pakistan, which hosted the previous round of failed talks, has been put on hold.
As of early Wednesday, there were no signs that the talks could resume soon.
The U.S. is keeping the naval blockade outside the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran has called a “siege” and a violation of the ceasefire.
The UK, which early this month hosted the first such meeting, said that this week’s conference is part of the UK and French leadership of a multinational coalition to reopen the Strait.
“The sessions will advance military plans to reopen the Strait, as soon as conditions permit, following a sustainable ceasefire agreement,” the UK government said in a statement.
“The task, today and tomorrow, is to translate the diplomatic consensus into a joint plan to safeguard freedom of navigation in the Strait and support a lasting ceasefire,” UK Defence Secretary John Healey said ahead of the conference.
“International trade, energy security and the stability of the global economy depend on freedom of navigation,” the UK official added.
“By building on our common purpose, strengthening multinational coordination and planning for effective collective action, we can help reopen the Strait, stabilise the global economy and protect our people.”
Curious Timing: Ukraine Declares Druzhba Pipeline Repaired After New Hungarian PM Elected
Ukraine announced Tuesday it completed repairs to the damaged Druzhba oil pipeline and stands ready to resume pumping Russian oil to Europe, a step Ukrainian officials expect will unlock a long-delayed EU aid package.
The timing is quite interesting and surely not coincidental given that Hungary’s newly elected PM Péter Magyar and his victorious Tisza party are now in Budapest rapidly preparing for the transfer of power in Hungary. Magyar just accomplished a dramatic landslide defeat of Viktor Orbán last Sunday.
The pipeline, which carries crude to Hungary and Slovakia, has sat at the center of a monthslong ratcheting standoff, which served to further distance Hungary under Orban from the EU.
Hungary and Slovakia have accused the Zelensky government of intentionally delaying repairs to pressure them, after a last January alleged Russian strike on Druzhba damaged it, and halted oil flows to central Europe.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has just confirmed on social media, “Ukraine has completed repair work on the section of the oil pipeline that was damaged by a Russian strike,” and hence: “The pipeline can resume operation.”
“We must continue systematic sanctions pressure on Russia over this war and work on further diversifying energy supplies to Europe,” Zelensky said further. “Europe must be independent from those who seek to destroy or weaken it,” he added.
EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas told reporters in Luxembourg that an agreement on the funds is expected within 24 hours: “I hope that everything goes well,” she said. “Hopefully, all the obstacles are removed.”
As for Magyar, his election win was heralded as a substantial victory for the global left wing, from EU globalists to Democrats in the US. Their assumption is that with Orbán’s veto power out of play, they will be able to do they want in Ukraine and in Hungary. However, the new Prime Minster may not be as cooperative as they initially believed.
Magyar has stated that he will not try to block the €90 billion EU loan to Ukraine which Orbán originally vetoed, but he also stated that Hungary will not be contributing to such loans and that the government will not support any attempt to induct Ukraine into the EU.
Slovak Economy Minister Denisa Sakova:
Ukraine has started pumping oil through the Druzhba pipeline, and supplies to Slovakia are expected to resume Thursday.
He also announced this week that he will not allow Hungary to join in the EU’s “Migration Pact” and that he plans to further strengthen Hungary’s borders.
Hungary’s incoming Prime Minister, Peter Magyar, stated on April earlier this week that his government will arrest Israeli Prime Minister and ‘wanted war criminal’ Benjamin Netanyahu if he visits, as Budapest reconsiders the previous government’s plan to withdraw from the International Criminal Court (ICC).
“I made myself clear to the Israeli prime minister too, we are not re-entering … because my colleagues examined the matter, and we can still stop withdrawal until June 2,” Magyar said.
The prime minister-elect said his government intends to reverse Hungary’s exit from the ICC before it takes effect, after legal advisors determined the withdrawal process remains incomplete and can still be stopped once his administration takes office.
“The firm intention of the Tisza government is to halt this process and ensure that Hungary remains a member of the ICC,” he stated, adding, “If someone is a member of the ICC and a person who is wanted enters our country, then they must be taken into custody.”
The ICC issued arrest warrants for Netanyahu and his former defense minister, Yoav Gallant, in November 2024 over his role in leading Israel’s genocide against the Palestinian people in Gaza, with the warrant requiring member states to detain individuals sought by the court if they enter their territory.
Magyar’s remarks come despite having invited Netanyahu days earlier to attend a national commemoration later this year, raising questions over the apparent contradiction between the invitation and Hungary’s stated legal obligations.
“I don’t need to spell it out over the phone,” Magyar added, referring to a call last week in which he invited Netanyahu to attend an October ceremony commemorating the 70th anniversary of the Hungarian Uprising. He went on to say, “I assume that every head of state and government is familiar with these laws.”
Magyar’s position stands in direct contrast to that of his predecessor, former prime minister Viktor Orban, who refused to arrest Netanyahu during a 2025 visit and initiated Hungary’s withdrawal from the ICC while guaranteeing him immunity.
Earlier this year, Washington moved to shield Israeli officials from accountability, targeting those pursuing legal action over Gaza instead.
Washington imposed “terrorist-grade sanctions” on ICC judges and UN rapporteur Francesca Albanese, freezing assets and obstructing war crimes probes after she warned major US tech firms – including Alphabet, Amazon, Lockheed Martin, and Microsoft – that their support for Israeli military operations could amount to “gross violations of human rights” in Gaza.
UN officials warned that the sanctions are illegal and risk undermining the broader human rights system, as Washington moves to penalize those pursuing accountability while continuing to arm Israel.
