Summary

• Vance’s trip to Islamabad ‘on hold’ as talks appear off for now after Iran demanded US lift blockade of ports.

• Neither side wants to appear ‘weak’ by flying to Pakistan first without the other side having already clearly committed. Trump warns: ‘Expect…bombs’ & urges Tehran “release women” said to be on death row.

• Overnight, US forces conducted a right-of-visit, maritime interdiction and boarding of the stateless sanctioned M/T Tifani in Indo-Pac region: CENTCOM

• As just 12 ships have gone through Hormuz Strait in last 24 hours, Iran claims one of its own made it past the US naval blockade. CENTOM says 28 turned around.

• Trump on Truth Social early Tuesday: Iran has Violated the Cease Fire numerous times!

*  *  * 

US Delegation Trip for Talks ‘On Hold’

As VP Vance has been seen at the White House, clearly not en route to Pakistan for Iran talks, a hugely significant headline has sent oil up and stocks dumping more:

• VP Vance’s Pakistan trip has been put on hold as Iran’s leadership remained divided over whether to participate in a new round of peace talks, via Axios
• VANCE TRIP ON HOLD AS IRAN DIDN’T RESPOND TO US POSITIONS: NYT
• VANCE TRIP TO PAKISTAN HAS NOT BEEN CANCLED: NYT

Newsquawk market reaction: Stocks see weakness, while oil and Dollar gain amid NYT reports that VP Vance’s diplomatic trip to Islamabad has been put on hold after Tehran failed to respond to American negotiating positions.

Latest Update on Islamabad Talks: Pakistan remains in continuous contact with the Iranian side regarding confirmation of its delegation. As mediator, Pakistan continues sincere efforts to advance diplomacy and dialogue. With the ceasefire ending at 4:50 AM PST on 22 April, Iran’s… pic.twitter.com/r95ywZttwC

— Ministry of Information & Broadcasting (@MoIB_Official) April 21, 2026

Latest from Iran Foreign Minister:

Blockading Iranian ports is an act of war and thus a violation of the ceasefire.
Striking a commercial vessel and taking its crew hostage is an even greater violation.

Iran knows how to neutralize restrictions, how to defend its interests, and how to resist bullying.

— Seyed Abbas Araghchi (@araghchi) April 21, 2026

Iran Last-Minute Major Demand

Talks are in peril as it’s unclear whether Vice President JD Vance intends to depart today for Pakistan, though Axios says he will. And now the Iranian side is imposing a new key demand to even get to the negotiating table – the lifting of the US Navy’s blockade of Iranian ports:

Iran has cast doubt over a second round of peace talks with the U.S. in Islamabad after refusing to publicly commit to attend the talks this week, as the expiration of a ceasefire looms.

Tehran had initially told mediators that it would send a delegation to Pakistan Tuesday for talks but later informed them that the U.S. would have to lift its blockade on Iran ports, according to officials.

Pakistan is urging the U.S. and Iran to extend the two-week cease-fire and continue to work toward a diplomatic solution. Vice President J.D. Vance is expected the lead the U.S. delegation.

President Trump has said he doesn’t intend to sign on to any ceasefire extension, and it expires by Wednesday. He has also warned the Iranians should “expect” bombs if no breakthrough can be found.

Trump to Iran: Release These Women

President Trump has suddenly pivoted to making the ‘humanitarian’ or ‘protect the protesters’ argument once again. He has just written on Truth Social the following words, while sharing the below image of eight Iranian women allegedly on death row:

To the Iranian leaders, who will soon be in negotiations with my representatives: I would greatly appreciate the release of these women. I am sure that they will respect the fact that you did so. Please do them no harm! Would be a great start to our negotiations!!! Thank you for your attention to this matter.

Whether these women are actually about to be hanged is another, lingering question (there’s no legitimate sourcing confirming that a group of eight women are about to be hanged) – but clearly Trump is trying to inject some more leverage on the US side before the second-round Pakistan talks even get started.

He had quickly followed the above with the below message talking about having ‘obliterated’ Iran’s ‘nuclear dust’ to the point that the Iranians can’t get to it:

Trump: Iran Has No Choice, ‘Expect’ Bombs

President Trump on Tuesday said he expects a strong outcome from negotiations with Iran, telling CNBC that “they will end up with a great deal.” He added that “Iran has no choice, it is regime change no matter what you want to call it,” and emphasized that the US is in “a strong negotiating position.”

He said the naval blockade “has been successful” and that US forces are “in control of the Strait.” Trump also stated he does not want to extend the ceasefire, saying “there is not that much time” – but added that “Iran can get itself onto good footing with a deal.”

He also acknowledged that Iran has likely continued to do missile restocking in the ceasefire interim period, and also moving its remaining missile arsenal around. But Trump also claimed the US is “much more powerful than it was a few weeks again” and that CENTCOM used the ceasefire to restock as well. Importantly he also said the US is “ready to go militarily” and that the world should “expect” bombing – in the instance there’s no Pakistan deal reached. And an interesting China reference:

• Caught an Iranian ship with gifts from China, thought he had an understanding with China’s Xi, says “that’s alright”.

Pakistan Talks: Timeline Still Up in the Air

Who will fly to Islamabad first? Al Jazeera comments on the emerging diplomatic standoff before actual diplomacy even gets started, amid the continued tit-for-tat threats of potential escalation on the battlefield:

Pakistan is ready to host the talks. They are planning for them to take place on Wednesday at the highest level. But the White House has been very tight-lipped about when JD Vance will be leaving Washington.

What appears to be going on is the US trying to protect itself from embarrassment.

If it is to send its team, which ends up sitting here in Islamabad without Iran showing up, that would be a huge embarrassment. As a result, there now appears to be a game between the US and Iran over who is going to get on their plane and fly here first.

Per Bloomberg at about 4am US time: “Iran’s state-run TV denies unspecified media reports that an Iranian delegation has departed for or arrived in Pakistan for negotiations with the US.” Latest:

Al Jazeera reports: Mediators received confirmation of US VP Vance and Iran’s Ghalifab’s arrival in Islamabad at dawn Wednesday to lead talks.

At the same time, per WSJ, Iran has informed regional mediators that it will send a delegation to Islamabad after for days of repeatedly refusing to commit to a new round of negotiations. However, there’s not been official confirmation, only signaling, with Pakistani officials insisting the Iranians will be there. And yet, it was only on Monday that Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman said that there was no plan for a second round of negotiations.

But if all goes well, Vice President Vance is expected to depart for Pakistan today, leading the delegation which includes Kushner and Witkoff. As a reminder, on Monday President Trump said “lots of bombs” will be unleased on Iran if there is no deal, and also given the White House doesn’t plan to extend the ceasefire. The key issues of Iran’s nuclear program and the Hormuz Strait loom large. Iranian parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf has at the same time warned: “we do not accept negotiations under the shadow of threats, and over the past two weeks we have prepared to reveal new cards on the battlefield”.

Since the start of the U.S. blockade against ships entering or exiting Iranian ports, U.S. forces have directed 28 vessels to turn around or return to port. pic.twitter.com/mZOq3SfxKt

— U.S. Central Command (@CENTCOM) April 21, 2026

Another Vessel Interdiction by US Navy

US forces boarded a sanctioned tanker without resistance in the Indo-Pacific as part of operations targeting vessels linked to Iran, the Pentagon said on X. Initial statements did not indicate a precise location, and clearly it did not occur in the Hormuz Strait. Washington recently announced it is ready to seize ‘illicit’ Iran-linked vessels anywhere on the high seas. The move follows Sunday’s major boarding of an Iranian-flagged vessel, when a US warship opened fire as it attempted to transit the strait, striking and damaging the engine room.

CENTCOM: Overnight, U.S. forces conducted a right-of-visit, maritime interdiction and boarding of the stateless sanctioned M/T Tifani without incident in the INDOPACOM area of responsibility.



Overnight, U.S. forces conducted a right-of-visit, maritime interdiction and boarding of the stateless sanctioned M/T Tifani without incident in the INDOPACOM area of responsibility.⁰⁰As we have made clear, we will pursue global maritime enforcement efforts to disrupt illicit… pic.twitter.com/EGwDe3dBI3

— Department of War 🇺🇸 (@DeptofWar) April 21, 2026

“As we have made clear, we will pursue global maritime enforcement efforts to disrupt illicit networks and interdict sanctioned vessels providing material support to Iran—anywhere they operate,” a CENTCOM post said. “International waters are not a refuge for sanctioned vessels. The Department of War will continue to deny illicit actors and their vessels freedom of maneuver in the maritime domain.”

Iran has been referring to this incident as a second fresh US violation of the ceasefire, amid the tit-for-tat accusations:

🚨The US has Intercepted A Second Iranian Ship In What Looks Like A Final Ceasefire Violation

A ship heading to China, called TIFANI, is allegedly carrying millions in crude oil.

This occurs right as Washington is seeking to bring Tehran to Islamabad to negotiate. pic.twitter.com/tZQEgXF1yf

— MintPress News (@MintPressNews) April 21, 2026

Meanwhile…

Iran Claims Successfully Defied US Blockade

An Iranian oil tanker entered the territorial waters of Iran overnight after transiting the Arabian Sea with support from the country’s navy, according to the army, and as reported in NBC. Semi-official Fars News Agency reported that the vessel continued its route despite what it described as repeated warnings and threats from US forces enforcing a Trump-ordered blockade on Iranian ports.

The tanker is now anchored at a southern Iranian port and has remained there for several hours, the report indicated. Tanker traffic remains at a tiny trickle, with 12 presumably US-approved vessels having made it through in the past 24 hours.

A sense of normalcy returns to Iran as countdown to Wednesday expiration of 2-week ceasefire weighs heavy…

🇮🇷 Coffee shops bustling in Tehran as Middle East ceasefire nears end

Iranians gather in coffee shops in northern Tehran, as uncertainty grows over a push to stop the Middle East war from resuming. pic.twitter.com/svvALqngbT

— AFP News Agency (@AFP) April 21, 2026

There are even reports that Iran is ready to open up domestic air travel once again, but that could soon prove short-lived as President Trump’s threats keep coming, and given the unlikelihood that Pakistan talks will in the end succeed.

Authored by Matthew Piepenburg via VonGreyerz.gold,

Below, we look soberly at the historical case of gold in the backdrop of current headlines and a global financial system nearing an eruption moment. 

Although the catalysts of oil, war, bond dysfunction, and bloated stocks may seem modern and unique, the current case for gold is as timeless and constant as nature itself.

Volcanic Parallels…

In May of 1980, David Alexander Johnston, a volcanologist for the United States Geological Survey, was manning an observation post 10 kilometers from the percolating volcano of Mount St. Helens in the state of Washington. 

On May 18th, he would be the first to report the volcano’s sudden eruption. 

Within in minutes, however, Johnston would be killed by the volcano’s “lateral blasts.” his body was never recovered, and 56 others would also perish—along with 7,000 big game animals, 12 million fish, 200 homes, 300 kilometers of highway and 15 kilometers of railway.

Although monitoring volcanos may seem entirely removed from monitoring economic shocks, there are volcanic rumblings beneath our global oil, credit, equity and currency markets which are about to erupt. 

Like Johnston, few realize just how quickly observation can suddenly turn to extreme danger.

In fact, the current “calm before the financial eruption” feels almost surreal when one compares the hard facts of the global oil, bond and Main Street indicators against a topping stock market and a completely indecipherable “conflict narrative” coming out of DC.

To make this “eruption announcement” economically clear and soberly real as opposed to just sensational, all we need is a moment of silence to consider simple math, the rhyming cadence of history and a modicum of realism (and common sense).

Let’s start with oil.

Oil’s Warning Meters

History reminds us that the last great “oil shocks” of 1973 and 1990 had massive ripple effects on U.S. markets and Main Street economies.

What is coming, however, will be far worse.

During the oil embargo period of 1973, for example, the world experienced a 7% deficit of oil supply. This resulted in a 300% oil price surge, a 52% fall in U.S. stocks (over 2 years) and a peak inflation level of over 12%.

Seventeen years later, during the Gulf War, the world saw a similar global oil deficit (7%), a 75% spike in oil prices and a 21% fall in U.S. stocks.

Fast forward to today, however, and we see an almost surreal moment of total disregard for such warnings as well as blindness to the financial volcano growling on the horizon.

Since the last oil tanker squeezed past the Strait of Hormuz in late February, global oil usage of 100 million barrels per day has fallen by 13%, as 13 million barrels per day have been delayed by the fog of war.

This marks a global oil deficit in 2026 of nearly twice the levels seen in 1973 and 1990, yet the U.S. stock market (always the last to get the memo) is trading at nearly all-time highs as of this writing.

This Is Crazy…

Globally, oil reserves are running out, including within the U.S., whose Strategic Petroleum Reserves are at half their 400M barrel level. 

The situation is far worse in Asia, India and Africa, whose last oil deliveries from the Hormuz Strait ended days ago. 

This explains why hotels are closed in Mumbai, and fishing trawlers are out of gas off the coast of Thailand.

As for Australia, the EU and the UK, their last deliveries out of Hormuz came on April 10th. 

Now their leaders are nervously trying to limit demand while hoping for a true and lasting cease-fire for an Iranian conflict driven by a Truth-Social account rather than professional diplomacy or even a rudimentary understanding of global finance.

Even if this conflict ended right now, the delayed economic effects from these record-breaking energy deficits are and will be extraordinary. 

This is not a fable but a fact.

Oil, which fuels the world, also transports the goods which feed and move the world. 

When oil prices rise, the cost of everything rises, including the food transported on ships running on oil, and which food is grown from fertilizers made from oil. 

Within the next few weeks, we could be looking at a humanitarian food crisis in the developing economies.

Meanwhile, in the U.S., the University of Michigan’s Consumer Confidence Index is near the bottom as the S&P nears its peak—marking a total (and tragi-comical) disconnect from Main Street indicators and Wall Street mania, the likes of which we’ve never seen before.

Also never seen before in history is the surreal disconnect between the paper (Brent futures) price for oil and the actual sales (“dated Brent”) price for the commodity in real time – a gap of over $35 dollars.

This delta between real oil pricing and paper oil pricing represents a pathetic attempt by policy makers to psychologically suppress panic via the help of well – pure dishonesty.

But then again, dishonesty as a matter of policy is nothing new to broken financial regimes, a fact proven by inflation misreporting, recession denial or the latest frauds legalized on the COMEX.

(By the way, those governmental proxies front-running the fake futures oil price gambit are looking down the barrel of one heck of a short-squeeze unless this war – and spiking oil price – is not immediately resolved…)

In sum, what we are experiencing as of now is the worst oil supply deficit in history, about to humiliate a U.S. stock bubble at all-time highs, which is totally disconnected from Main Street at the same time a fertilizer/food crisis is about to erupt in the world’s most vulnerable economies.

And Then There’s the Bond Market…

But even such appalling conditions pale in comparison to what our global bond markets are telling us.

As I’ve repeated for years: “The bond market is the thing.” 

Boring? Perhaps. But bonds are absolutely critical. As sovereign bond demand tanks and hence bond yields rise, the cost of debt/borrowing rises. 

This is fatal to economies that now operate almost entirely on debt.

And there is no better measure of debt costs than the yield on 10-Year sovereign bonds, almost all of which are rising like shark fins around drowning (and debt-soaked) nations like the UK, Germany, the U.S. and Japan.

But what is even more remarkable in the global bond market is what we are seeing out of China, whose yields are falling, not rising. 

This means Chinese bonds have more demand than U.S. Treasuries, British Gilts, Japanese JGB’s and German Bunds, which also means the days of Western bond hegemony in general, and U.S. Treasury hegemony in particular, are witnessing an historical turning point, one which we have been forewarning for years. 

In the case of the U.S., the yield on the U.S. 10Y is creeping dangerously close toward its “Uh-Oh” recession-inducing red line of 4.6% to 4.8%.

At $40T in U.S. public debt, Uncle Sam simply cannot survive such rising yields. 

Regardless of who sits at the Federal Reserve Bank (which is neither “federal,” nor a “reserve” nor even a “bank”), trillions will need to be printed to buy America’s otherwise unloved, unwanted and weaponized IOUs.

Bessent may try a “soft default” of UST’s by illegally (yet in the name of “national security”) fixing yields lower and extending bond durations further out. 

But even such desperate measures will not stop the inevitable “mouse-clicking” of trillions in M0 Fed Balance Sheet dollars and M2 money supply expansion to save our bond markets at the expense of our currency.

In short, Uncle Sam will have no choice but to create bad money out of thin air to pay his own criminally negligent bar tab.

Even if peace were somehow declared today in the Middle East, the debt and currency damage was already fatally ill long before the conflict in Iran acted to accelerate the dying process.

Which brings us, of course, to real money vs. fake money…

All Roads Lead to Gold

The now undeniable destruction of the dollar’s absolute purchasing power and the desperate yet failed measures to somehow reclaim dollar hegemony are beyond debate. 

The USA and its dollar will not end, but their hegemony is already (and will continue) declining. Regardless of whatever happens next in Iran or elsewhere, the die for U.S. debt, and hence the USD, was cast long ago.

Yes, there is so much change everywhere and every day, especially now. We all see this. 

But such blunt-speak is not anti-American. It is financial realism and simple pattern recognition, for despite all speculations, squawking pundits, changing headlines, tweets, and armchair military guessing, nothing has really changed at all…

History reminds us again and again that broken nations over their skis in failed and extended wars, extreme deficit spending and political mismanagement have always debased their currencies to temporarily save their political optics and near-term legacies.

This has always meant “temporary prosperity followed by permanent ruin” created by a handful of “political and economic opportunists,” who, as Hemingway warned, take their nations toward currency destruction and war – the very scenario in which we now openly find ourselves.

As the world reserve currency slowly loses its trust, faith, credibility and purchasing power in such a classic yet historically familiar backdrop, gold, as it has done for thousands of years, will continue to honestly rise in a setting of now almost comical dishonesty.

Like David Johnston, many of us have been watching the financial debt volcano rumble in the distance. 

As of 2026, that volcano is now erupting. It is now up to each of us to avoid being swept away by its “lateral blasts” of paper currency destruction.

In other words, it’s up to each of us to own honest and real money to protect ourselves from the financial lava flowing our way.

The first-order effect of the U.S.-Iran conflict and the resulting shutdown of the Hormuz chokepoint was the disruption of global energy flows, from LNG to crude to refined products. The second-order effect was a spike in petrochemical prices and a widening shortage of key industrial inputs. Now the third-order effects are beginning to hit everyday goods, with Malaysia-based Karex, the world’s largest condom maker, warning that prices are about to explode.

Karex CEO Goh Miah Kiat spoke with Reuters in an exclusive interview about his plan to hike condom prices by 20% to 30%, and possibly more, as the war in Iran continues to disrupt supply chains and drive up critical input and shipping costs.

“The situation is definitely very fragile, prices are expensive… We have no choice but to transfer the costs right now to the customers,” Goh said.

He said costs have increased for everything from synthetic rubber and nitrile used in manufacturing condoms to packaging materials and lubricants such as aluminum foil and silicone oil.

Earlier this month, Goldman analyst Georgina Fraser warned clients about petrochemical shock worsening across Asia, with textile and packaging plants emerging as the first major downstream casualties. 

“The supply shock is transmitting faster and at a greater magnitude than we had anticipated,” Fraser warned in the note. 

Reuters noted, “The condom maker joins a growing list of companies, including medical glove makers, bracing for supply chain bottlenecks as the Iran war strains energy ​and petrochemical flows from the Middle East, disrupting procurement of raw materials.” 

At the same time, Kiat said condom demand has surged 30% so far this year, with shipping disruptions further exacerbating shortages. He noted that shipping times to the U.S. and Europe are now two months, up from one month previously.

“We’re seeing a lot more condoms actually sitting on vessels that have not arrived at their destination but are highly required,” Goh added. He noted that many developing countries do not have large condom supplies.

As the tempo of AI newsflow approached the frenzied rollercoaster pace of geopolitical headlines during the biggest oil shock in decades, it’s becoming easy to get lost in all the latest developments and drama surrounding OpenAI, Anthropic, Nvidia, government blacklists, the AI circle jerk, sentinent killer robots, and so on…

To help readers keep on top of things, we are launching a brief AI news roundup, which should help you get up to speed in under 60 seconds. 

Here are the four main things you need to know: 

• And just like that, Anthropic goes from Pentagon supply chain risk to $13B anchor tenant of AWS: Amazon’s fresh $5B investment brings its total Anthropic commitment to $13B – with Anthropic pledging $100B+ in AWS cloud spend over 10 years in return, securing 5GW of compute capacity across Tranium2 through Tranium4. On the government track, NSA is reportedly deploying Anthropic’s Mythos model despite the DoD designation – a contradiction that speaks to how deeply embedded Claude has become in mission critical workflows. And perhaps the clearest signal of where employees think this is going: Anthropic’s recent tender offer fell short of the $5-6B investors had lined up – not because demand was weak, but employees choosing to hold, perhaps betting the public listing will price meaningfully higher.
   
• OpenAI, meanwhile, is cutting… not expanding. Kevin Weil and Bill Peebles both departed as OpenAI pivots away from compute heavy side quests towards enterprise monetization and a forthcoming superapp. The Codex revamp signals the same thesis: agentic workflow ownership over model novelty. Both companies are refining narrative and product surface, and capital structure simultaneously – the ARR accounting dispute where OpenAI internally accused Anthropic of overstating revenue metrics signals the positioning war is intensifying.
   
• But the most consequential bet of the week may not be in software at all. Jeff Bezos is close to finalizing a $10B funding round for Project Prometheus – his physical AI lab valued at $28B, with JPM and Blackrock among investors per the Financial Times. While Anthropic and OpenAI race to own the enterprise workflow layer, Bezos is making a different wager: that the next frontier of AI Value Creation is in the physical world – manufacturing, aerospace, robotics, logistics – where the training data isn’t scraped from the internet but locked inside the factory floor. Not to mention, this is the first time Bezos has held an operational role since leaving Amazon in 2021.
   
• And zooming out, the Private Capital machine isn’t slowing. Sequoia raised $7B under new co-stewards Alfred Lin and Pat Grady, nearly double its prior $3.4B comparable fund – for late stage AI expansion. Accel followed with $5B, deploying $4B into a Leaders Fund targeting at least 20 checks averaging $200M each, explicitly naming robotics and defense alongside AI software. Taken together: $12B+ of late stage conviction in a single week, with physical AI now sitting at the center of both mandates. With Capital is concentrating, Manger Selection now matters more than vintage year timing.

Source: UBS

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

In a stunning display of racial exclusion dressed up as “equity,” a California school district barred white students from a taxpayer-funded field trip centered on “social justice.”

Albany Unified School District (AUSD) organized the overnight trip to Virginia exclusively for “young men and women of color” from Albany High School. White kids stayed home while their non-white classmates toured Historically Black Colleges and Universities (HBCUs), visited civil rights sites, and held discussions on social justice, leadership, and self-awareness.

The trip was officially approved by the board of education and cost the district $42,845. Documents obtained by the parental rights group Defending Education and shared with the Daily Caller News Foundation lay bare the full scope of this race-based program.

EXCLUSIVE: California School Sent Kids On Segregated Field Trip For ‘Social Justice’: ‘Organizing programs and initiatives around racial categories’ https://t.co/hxkfukWnkn

— Daily Caller (@DailyCaller) April 20, 2026

“This unique mentoring program encourages Albany High School young men and women of color to develop social, personal, and academic success skills,” the board document states. “Students gather in a safe, supportive, and empowering environment to voice their needs and challenges. The students engage in enriching discussions on social justice, education, leadership, mental well-being, and self-awareness. This mentoring program is transforming the lives of young men and women of color to make a significant global impact in society.”

Along with HBCU tours, participants visited the Virginia Museum of History and Culture, the Virginia Civil Rights Memorial, and the Black Heritage Trail.

This is not an isolated incident. AUSD maintains a host of other race-specific initiatives. Its 2025-2026 Local Control and Accountability Plan includes “Young Men of Color and Young Women of Color Programs” aimed at providing “social emotional supports to most underserved students” as part of a $1,257,234 budget line for mental health efforts. The district also pushes “professional development” for staff on “culturally responsive/anti-racist pedagogy” to support “student groups who are persistently and historically underserved.”

Hiring practices follow the same pattern. A 2026 superintendent report outlines goals to “Recruit and Retain a Diverse, High Quality Staff” through “equitable recruitment pipelines,” “affinity-based supports,” and a “Black Teacher Project.” The district even tracks staff demographics as a measure of success.

AUSD’s website further details a protocol for any potential ICE activity on campus, instructing staff “NOT to provide any information” and declaring the district a “safe haven” for immigrant families. It also openly states its aim of “Recruiting and retaining excellent, diverse teachers.”

The district did not respond to the Daily Caller News Foundation’s request for comment.

Paul Runko, senior director of strategic initiatives at Defending Education, condemned the approach.

“Students and teachers are best served when opportunities are based on merit and individual need, not immutable characteristics like race and ethnicity,” Runko noted.

He added, “Schools should focus their limited time and resources on challenging high-achieving students, supporting those who are struggling, and ensuring all students receive a high-quality education, rather than organizing programs and initiatives around racial categories. Great, hard-working teachers should be supported, mentored, and retained for their effectiveness in the classroom, not based on race or any other characteristic.”

The story ignited immediate backlash on X. Defending Education president Nicki Neily posted details of the affinity groups and district-funded trip, highlighting how AUSD maintains these race-based programs.

The district plans also include staffing goals tied to racial composition, including recruitment and retention programs for teachers of color and district benchmarks for increasing workforce diversity. https://t.co/EzD3gnex1n

— Nicki Neily (@nickineily) April 20, 2026

Other users quickly labeled it revived segregation. One commenter noted the broader pattern, pointing out that districts like LAUSD run identical race-exclusive trips for Black students to visit HBCUs.

Posts sharing the development described it as “no whites allowed” programming and accused the left of teaching minority children to view race through a lens of division rather than unity.

No whites allowed: School district sends kids ‘of color’ on cross-country ‘social justice’ field trip https://t.co/yMN9BGqdWN via @worldnetdaily

— Deborah Toppings (@karas13133) April 21, 2026

This episode exposes the core contradiction in today’s woke education machine. The same activists who lecture endlessly about dismantling “systemic racism” have no problem erecting racial barriers when it suits their narrative. In California, where open-border policies and sanctuary rules already strain public resources, school districts like Albany Unified double down on identity politics instead of delivering color-blind excellence.

Taxpayers are left footing the bill for programs that sort children by skin color, train staff in ‘anti-racist’ (racist) ideology, and prioritize demographic quotas over classroom results. Meanwhile, every student—regardless of background—loses out when schools abandon merit for grievance.

The push for “social justice” has produced the very segregation civil rights leaders once fought to end. Districts chasing racial affinity groups and exclusive trips are not healing divides; they are widening them at public expense.

Public schools exist to educate children, not to engineer racial outcomes or indulge activist fantasies. Until districts like Albany Unified face real accountability, this taxpayer-funded racial sorting will only accelerate.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Summary

• Still no sign or confirmation that Iranian delegation is en route. Vance seen still attending White House meetings Tuesday. Iran newly demands lifting of US blockade as Wed ceasefire expiration looms.

• Neither side wants to appear ‘weak’ by flying to Pakistan first without the other side having already clearly committed. Trump warns: ‘Expect…bombs’ & urges Tehran “release women” said to be on death row.

• Overnight, US forces conducted a right-of-visit, maritime interdiction and boarding of the stateless sanctioned M/T Tifani in Indo-Pac region: CENTCOM

• As just 12 ships have gone through Hormuz Strait in last 24 hours, Iran claims one of its own made it past the US naval blockade. CENTOM says 28 turned around.

• Trump on Truth Social early Tuesday: Iran has Violated the Cease Fire numerous times!

*  *  * 

Iran Last-Minute Major Demand

Talks are in peril as it’s unclear whether Vice President JD Vance intends to depart today for Pakistan, though Axios says he will. And now the Iranian side is imposing a new key demand to even get to the negotiating table – the lifting of the US Navy’s blockade of Iranian ports:

Iran has cast doubt over a second round of peace talks with the U.S. in Islamabad after refusing to publicly commit to attend the talks this week, as the expiration of a ceasefire looms.

Tehran had initially told mediators that it would send a delegation to Pakistan Tuesday for talks but later informed them that the U.S. would have to lift its blockade on Iran ports, according to officials.

Pakistan is urging the U.S. and Iran to extend the two-week cease-fire and continue to work toward a diplomatic solution. Vice President J.D. Vance is expected the lead the U.S. delegation.

President Trump has said he doesn’t intend to sign on to any ceasefire extension, and it expires by Wednesday. He has also warned the Iranians should “expect” bombs if no breakthrough can be found.

Trump to Iran: Release These Women

President Trump has suddenly pivoted to making the ‘humanitarian’ or ‘protect the protesters’ argument once again. He has just written on Truth Social the following words, while sharing the below image of eight Iranian women allegedly on death row:

To the Iranian leaders, who will soon be in negotiations with my representatives: I would greatly appreciate the release of these women. I am sure that they will respect the fact that you did so. Please do them no harm! Would be a great start to our negotiations!!! Thank you for your attention to this matter.

Whether these women are actually about to be hanged is another, lingering question (there’s no legitimate sourcing confirming that a group of eight women are about to be hanged) – but clearly Trump is trying to inject some more leverage on the US side before the second-round Pakistan talks even get started.

He had quickly followed the above with the below message talking about having ‘obliterated’ Iran’s ‘nuclear dust’ to the point that the Iranians can’t get to it:

Trump: Iran Has No Choice, ‘Expect’ Bombs

President Trump on Tuesday said he expects a strong outcome from negotiations with Iran, telling CNBC that “they will end up with a great deal.” He added that “Iran has no choice, it is regime change no matter what you want to call it,” and emphasized that the US is in “a strong negotiating position.”

He said the naval blockade “has been successful” and that US forces are “in control of the Strait.” Trump also stated he does not want to extend the ceasefire, saying “there is not that much time” – but added that “Iran can get itself onto good footing with a deal.”

He also acknowledged that Iran has likely continued to do missile restocking in the ceasefire interim period, and also moving its remaining missile arsenal around. But Trump also claimed the US is “much more powerful than it was a few weeks again” and that CENTCOM used the ceasefire to restock as well. Importantly he also said the US is “ready to go militarily” and that the world should “expect” bombing – in the instance there’s no Pakistan deal reached. And an interesting China reference:

• Caught an Iranian ship with gifts from China, thought he had an understanding with China’s Xi, says “that’s alright”.

Pakistan Talks: Timeline Still Up in the Air

Who will fly to Islamabad first? Al Jazeera comments on the emerging diplomatic standoff before actual diplomacy even gets started, amid the continued tit-for-tat threats of potential escalation on the battlefield:

Pakistan is ready to host the talks. They are planning for them to take place on Wednesday at the highest level. But the White House has been very tight-lipped about when JD Vance will be leaving Washington.

What appears to be going on is the US trying to protect itself from embarrassment.

If it is to send its team, which ends up sitting here in Islamabad without Iran showing up, that would be a huge embarrassment. As a result, there now appears to be a game between the US and Iran over who is going to get on their plane and fly here first.

Per Bloomberg at about 4am US time: “Iran’s state-run TV denies unspecified media reports that an Iranian delegation has departed for or arrived in Pakistan for negotiations with the US.” Latest:

Al Jazeera reports: Mediators received confirmation of US VP Vance and Iran’s Ghalifab’s arrival in Islamabad at dawn Wednesday to lead talks.

At the same time, per WSJ, Iran has informed regional mediators that it will send a delegation to Islamabad after for days of repeatedly refusing to commit to a new round of negotiations. However, there’s not been official confirmation, only signaling, with Pakistani officials insisting the Iranians will be there. And yet, it was only on Monday that Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman said that there was no plan for a second round of negotiations.

But if all goes well, Vice President Vance is expected to depart for Pakistan today, leading the delegation which includes Kushner and Witkoff. As a reminder, on Monday President Trump said “lots of bombs” will be unleased on Iran if there is no deal, and also given the White House doesn’t plan to extend the ceasefire. The key issues of Iran’s nuclear program and the Hormuz Strait loom large. Iranian parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf has at the same time warned: “we do not accept negotiations under the shadow of threats, and over the past two weeks we have prepared to reveal new cards on the battlefield”.

Since the start of the U.S. blockade against ships entering or exiting Iranian ports, U.S. forces have directed 28 vessels to turn around or return to port. pic.twitter.com/mZOq3SfxKt

— U.S. Central Command (@CENTCOM) April 21, 2026

Another Vessel Interdiction by US Navy

US forces boarded a sanctioned tanker without resistance in the Indo-Pacific as part of operations targeting vessels linked to Iran, the Pentagon said on X. Initial statements did not indicate a precise location, and clearly it did not occur in the Hormuz Strait. Washington recently announced it is ready to seize ‘illicit’ Iran-linked vessels anywhere on the high seas. The move follows Sunday’s major boarding of an Iranian-flagged vessel, when a US warship opened fire as it attempted to transit the strait, striking and damaging the engine room.

CENTCOM: Overnight, U.S. forces conducted a right-of-visit, maritime interdiction and boarding of the stateless sanctioned M/T Tifani without incident in the INDOPACOM area of responsibility.



Overnight, U.S. forces conducted a right-of-visit, maritime interdiction and boarding of the stateless sanctioned M/T Tifani without incident in the INDOPACOM area of responsibility.⁰⁰As we have made clear, we will pursue global maritime enforcement efforts to disrupt illicit… pic.twitter.com/EGwDe3dBI3

— Department of War 🇺🇸 (@DeptofWar) April 21, 2026

“As we have made clear, we will pursue global maritime enforcement efforts to disrupt illicit networks and interdict sanctioned vessels providing material support to Iran—anywhere they operate,” a CENTCOM post said. “International waters are not a refuge for sanctioned vessels. The Department of War will continue to deny illicit actors and their vessels freedom of maneuver in the maritime domain.”

Iran has been referring to this incident as a second fresh US violation of the ceasefire, amid the tit-for-tat accusations:

🚨The US has Intercepted A Second Iranian Ship In What Looks Like A Final Ceasefire Violation

A ship heading to China, called TIFANI, is allegedly carrying millions in crude oil.

This occurs right as Washington is seeking to bring Tehran to Islamabad to negotiate. pic.twitter.com/tZQEgXF1yf

— MintPress News (@MintPressNews) April 21, 2026

Meanwhile…

Iran Claims Successfully Defied US Blockade

An Iranian oil tanker entered the territorial waters of Iran overnight after transiting the Arabian Sea with support from the country’s navy, according to the army, and as reported in NBC. Semi-official Fars News Agency reported that the vessel continued its route despite what it described as repeated warnings and threats from US forces enforcing a Trump-ordered blockade on Iranian ports.

The tanker is now anchored at a southern Iranian port and has remained there for several hours, the report indicated. Tanker traffic remains at a tiny trickle, with 12 presumably US-approved vessels having made it through in the past 24 hours.

A sense of normalcy returns to Iran as countdown to Wednesday expiration of 2-week ceasefire weighs heavy…

🇮🇷 Coffee shops bustling in Tehran as Middle East ceasefire nears end

Iranians gather in coffee shops in northern Tehran, as uncertainty grows over a push to stop the Middle East war from resuming. pic.twitter.com/svvALqngbT

— AFP News Agency (@AFP) April 21, 2026

There are even reports that Iran is ready to open up domestic air travel once again, but that could soon prove short-lived as President Trump’s threats keep coming, and given the unlikelihood that Pakistan talks will in the end succeed.

Authored by Brayden Lindrea via CoinTelegraph.com,

A US senator has reportedly urged Senate Banking Chair Tim Scott to delay the markup for the crypto market structure bill until May, as banking and crypto representatives need more time to resolve disagreements over stablecoin yield provisions.

US Republican Thom Tillis of North Carolina told reporters Monday that he does not expect the Senate Banking Committee to mark up the legislation, also known as the CLARITY Act, in April and has recommended that Scott schedule it for next month, according to Punchbowl News.

Tillis, who has been leading discussions between crypto and banking members, reportedly told Scott: “It’s very important to me not to accelerate things, to hear everybody, and give them a rational basis for what we do accept.”

Continued delays have sparked concern that the CLARITY Act may not pass before the US midterms in November, an event that US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said could reverse momentum of the bill.

Source: Brendan Pedersen

“I think if the Democrats were to take the House, which is far from my best case, then the prospects of getting a deal done will just fall apart,” Bessent said in March.

CLARITY Act cannot wait any longer, crypto group says

It comes the same day crypto advocacy group The Digital Chamber sent a letter to the Senate Banking Committee asking it to move the crypto market structure legislation forward to a Senate markup “as soon as the calendar allows.”

The banking industry has raised concerns that allowing stablecoin yield could trigger significant deposit outflows from the traditional banking system, particularly at community banks. 

It argues that those banks may not have enough balance-sheet flexibility to absorb such outflows without relying on higher-cost wholesale funding.

Meanwhile, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong and others have pushed for more favorable stablecoin provisions. 

Last month, members of the banking and crypto industries were reportedly close to agreeing on enabling stablecoin rewards tied to crypto activity on third-party crypto platforms, but not for passive balances.

The Digital Chamber noted that it has now been more than 270 days since the House passed the CLARITY Act with bipartisan support.

“Clarity cannot wait,” The Digital Chamber’s government affairs director, Taylor Barr, said, adding: “More than 70 million Americans who have embraced digital assets deserve the regulatory clarity they have waited far too long for.”

Source: The Digital Chamber

Other members of the crypto industry have argued that moving the bill forward is more important than holding out for perfect terms.

Circular AI vendor financing is back and back in a big way…

As we noted last fall, when we walked readers through the stunning math behind what we called the AI “circle jerk,” this latest iteration centers on Amazon and Anthropic, with the left-leaning AI company now committing to spend more than $100 billion over the next decade on AWS infrastructure.

In the announcement on Monday evening, Anthropic committed to spending more than $100 billion over the next decade on AWS infrastructure, including multiple generations of Trainium chips and tens of millions of Graviton cores. Amazon plans to invest $5 billion in Anthropic and up to an additional $20 billion in the future. 

“Anthropic’s commitment to run its large language models on AWS Trainium for the next decade reflects the progress we’ve made together on custom silicon, as we continue delivering the technology and infrastructure our customers need to build with generative AI,” Amazon CEO Andy Jassy said in a statement.

Anthropic’s Claude Platform will be directly available in AWS accounts. Over 100,000 customers already run Claude models on AWS, and companies are continuing to collaborate on Project Rainier, a massive AI compute cluster built around nearly half a million Trainium2 chips.

The bigger message here is that both companies are locking in long-term deals for chips, cloud infrastructure, and AI deployment. Anthropic noted that it will bring nearly 1 gigawatt total of Trainium2 and Trainium3 capacity by year’s end.

Anthropic noted that enterprise and developer demand for Claude has seen a “sharp rise” in usage, which has led to “inevitable strain” on its infrastructure, impacting reliability and performance. The company said the Amazon deal will quickly expand its available capacity.

“Our users tell us Claude is increasingly essential to how they work, and we need to build the infrastructure to keep pace with rapidly growing demand,” Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei said in a statement. “Our collaboration with Amazon will allow us to continue advancing AI research while delivering Claude to our customers, including the more than 100,000 building on AWS.”

We return to the circular AI vendor-financing scheme among a small cluster of firms, including Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom, Microsoft, Oracle, CoreWeave, and OpenAI, which we previously called a “circle jerk.”

Now the pattern is reappearing in the Amazon-Anthropic deal.

Seperate but related, President Trump told CNBC earlier today that he had a meeting with Anthropic: “They came to the White House a few days ago, and we had some very good talks with them, and I think they’re shaping up. They’re very smart… I think we’ll get along with them just fine.” 

.@POTUS on @AnthropicAI: “They came to the White House a few days ago, and we had some very good talks with them, and I think they’re shaping up. They’re very smart… I think we’ll get along with them just fine.” pic.twitter.com/oOGGqlSizX

— Rapid Response 47 (@RapidResponse47) April 21, 2026

Trump was referring to the fallout of the Pentagon and Anthropic around using AI models for warfare. 

Latest: 

• Warsh labeled the Fed’s 2021-2022 response a “fatal policy error” on inflation.
• He demands a new policy framework, tools, and major communications reform.
• Warsh rejects forward guidance and refuses to preview future rate moves.
• Price stability exists when no one talks about inflation, Warsh testified.
• Warsh disputes that tariffs caused the recent inflation overshoot.
• Inflation data used by the Fed is “quite imperfect,” per Warsh.
• He focuses most on the underlying inflation rate.
• Trump never asked Warsh to commit to specific interest-rate cuts.
• Sen. Tillis blocks Warsh’s nomination until the DOJ drops the Powell probe.

During his live Senate Banking Committee confirmation hearing on Tuesday, Federal Reserve chair nominee Kevin Warsh criticized past Fed mistakes, called for a “reform-oriented” central bank, pledged strict independence from President Trump, highlighted AI as “the most disruptive moment in modern economic history,” and faced Democratic scrutiny over his $131–209 million in assets (which he agreed to divest, including stakes tied to Stanley Druckenmiller’s Juggernaut Fund) while dodging a direct answer on whether Trump lost the 2020 election.

Warsh demanded a new policy framework, new tools, and major communications reform, including scrapping problematic forward guidance and the dot plot – stating he won’t preview future rate decisions.

VAN HOLLEN: If the central bank were to cut rates, that would typically push prices up, right?

WARSH: Unlike many of my colleagues, I don’t believe I should be previewing what a future decision might be

VAN HOLLEN: I’m not asking you that. Most economists would agree that would… pic.twitter.com/IBE2G4yjsQ

— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) April 21, 2026

He defined price stability as inflation so tame “that no one is talking about it” across boardrooms or kitchen tables.

WARSH: My preferred definition of stable prices is a little different than most academics. I believe price stability should be a change in prices such that no one’s talking about it. The sooner we can reform the institution, if confirmed, the sooner we can ensure price stability. pic.twitter.com/Bk8RQCxcZG

— Rapid Response 47 (@RapidResponse47) April 21, 2026

Warsh disputes that tariffs caused the recent inflation overshoot.

*WARSH: DON’T AGREE THAT INFLATION OVERSHOOT IS DUE TO TARIFFS

*WARSH: DATA BEING USED TO JUDGE INFLATION IS QUITE IMPERFECT

*WARSH: I’M MOST INTERESTED IN UNDERLYING INFLATION RATE

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) April 21, 2026

He called the data being used to judge inflation “quite imperfect,” and that he is most interested in the underlying inflation rate.

Warsh confirmed President Trump “never once asked me to commit to any particular interest rate decision.”

Sen. Kennedy: “Have you agreed with the president that you’re going to lower interest rates?”

Warsh: “The president never asked me to predetermine, commit, fix, decide on any interest rate decision in any of our discussions, nor would I ever agree to do so.” pic.twitter.com/FYxVkJiGdk

— The Bulwark (@BulwarkOnline) April 21, 2026

Meanwhile, – as he’s threatened to do for months, Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC) announced he will block Warsh’s nomination until the DOJ drops its investigation into Chair Powell, tying the committee vote.

Thom Tillis, Republican Senator from North Carolina, reiterated that he will block the nomination of Kevin Warsh to be chair of the Federal Reserve until the “bogus investigation” into the Fed and Chair Powell is completed. Speaking at Warsh’s nomination hearing before the Senate Banking Committee, Tillis said he was going to talk about “what’s preventing me from being in a position to vote for you until” the probe is wrapped up rather than ask questions, as he believes Warsh has “extraordinary” and “impeccable” credentials for the job. There are 13 Republicans on the committee and 11 Democrats, so Tillis’ refusal to approve ties the committee 12-12 and the nomination cannot move to the Senate approval for confirmation. Given President Trump’s comments earlier about the need to pursue the investigation, this standoff is going nowhere. “Let’s get rid of this investigation so I can support your confirmation”, Tillis said. -Bloomberg

Thom Tillis still refuses to blame Trump for anything: “The problem I have is that some US attorney or assistant US attorney with a dream thought it would be cute to bring Chair Powell under an investigation … the boss said he didn’t know anything about it” pic.twitter.com/WhBawG82bZ

— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) April 21, 2026

Lookin’ like a June confirmation…

* * *

President Donald Trump’s nominee to lead the Federal Reserve, Kevin Warsh, is scheduled to appear before the Senate Banking Committee today at 10:00 a.m. ET for his confirmation hearing – his first public test in the high-stakes process to become the next chair of the central bank.

The hearing, set to take place in the Dirksen Senate Office Building Room 538 in a hybrid open session, comes less than a month before current Chair Jerome Powell’s term expires on May 15. Warsh, a former Fed governor who served from 2006 to 2011, was nominated by Trump on March 4 to serve as both a Board member and chairman.

Watch Live:

Warsh, a former Fed governor who has spent years criticizing the institution as directionless and in need of “regime change,” now has the chance to outline his vision for remaking the world’s most powerful central bank. But he faces a delicate balancing act: signaling loyalty to Trump’s push for lower interest rates while reassuring markets, lawmakers, and global observers that he will safeguard the Fed’s independence and keep inflation in check.

In prepared opening remarks released yesterday, Warsh strikes a deliberate tone on the politically sensitive issue of central bank independence. He plans to state that “monetary policy independence is essential” and that decisions must rest on “analytic rigor, meaningful deliberation and unclouded decision-making.” At the same time, he will argue that the Fed has sometimes “extended its reach” beyond its core mandate, eroding its credibility, and that presidents or lawmakers expressing views on interest rates does not inherently undermine operational independence.

He also declares that “inflation is a choice” and that the Fed must take responsibility for price stability while staying firmly “in its lane” – avoiding fiscal, regulatory, or social policy areas where it lacks authority or expertise.

As anticipated, Senate Democrats are preparing to aggressively question Warsh, focusing on whether he can truly insulate the Fed from political pressure – especially given Trump’s repeated calls for sharply lower interest rates. Ranking Member Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) and other Democrats have signaled they will press him on potential conflicts of interest, the adequacy of his financial disclosures (which revealed more than $100 million in assets but left some holdings opaque), plans to divest certain investments, and any private communications with the Trump administration.

All 11 Democrats on the committee are widely expected to oppose the nomination. Some had pushed to delay the hearing pending the outcome of Justice Department investigations involving Powell and Governor Lisa Cook, but those efforts did not succeed.

On the Republican side, support for Warsh appears solid, though not unanimous. A handful of GOP senators have voiced reservations linked to the ongoing probes, but the party holds the majority and is positioned to advance the nomination out of committee.

Markets and policymakers will be watching closely for any signals on Warsh’s views regarding the Fed’s balance sheet, the pace of potential rate cuts, and his overall approach to the dual mandate. Analysts describe him as pragmatic rather than a radical departure from current policy, but today’s testimony could shift expectations ahead of the next FOMC meeting.

According to Goldman, here’s what to watch for:

• On Econ (Mericle): i) How has the war affected his views – Has he shifted toward the FOMC’s wait-and-see approach, which might signal an intention to work toward building consensus? Ii) Does he talk about looking through tariff + energy passthrough? How will Warsh characterize where inflation stands + how the FOMC should treat tariff and oil effects? Iii) What does he say about shrinking the Fed’s balance sheet? Are incremental reductions related to regulatory + supervisory changes enough or is he still pushing for a more substantial reduction?
   
• Tillis block (Pastrick): Senator Tillis key to watch: No expectation that he will oppose Warsh as a candidate but we do NOT expect to see any openings from Tillis that outline a new position on not supporting the nomination while Fed Chair Powell is under legal scrutiny.
   
• On Rates markets (Marshall): i) Insight into where Warsh anchors his longer-run views could impact the distribution of risks around terminal rate pricing; ii) That Warsh supports a smaller balance sheet would come as no surprise, but details around how he might seek to achieve it, and what potential Fed/Treasury interaction might look like, would shape market perceptions on balance sheet trajectory; iii) Bank regulation: Emphasis on things like adjustments to the liquidity rules + internal liquidity stress testing could reinforce the case that meaningful shifts in policy follow a shift in reserve demand (rather than result from efforts to shift the reserve framework)

The confirmation process remains fluid. A committee vote would follow today’s hearing, with the full Senate expected to take up the nomination soon after. Warsh’s performance – particularly how he navigates questions on Fed independence amid White House expectations – will be pivotal in determining whether he assumes the role by mid-May.

Hard red winter wheat (HRW) futures widened to their largest premium over soft red wheat (SRW) in more than two years as severe drought intensified across key breadbasket regions in the Great Plains and Midwest. This means traders are pricing in weather impacts and tightening expectations for higher-protein wheat supplies.

It is important to note that HRW is a more valuable protein and is primarily used in bread, rolls, and all-purpose flour. It is grown in the U.S. Plains (Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas), while SRW is used in cakes, cookies, crackers, and pastries, and is grown in the Eastern U.S. (Ohio Valley, Midwest, Southeast).

The blowout in the HRW-SRW spread, the biggest premium in two years, is mainly due to weather stress as drought grips the central U.S. The market is currently pricing in possible supply imbalances and quality concerns for HRW.

As of mid-April, 61% of the Lower 48 is in drought as the Northern Hemisphere growing season begins and farmers start plantings, according to NOAA. This equates to nearly 149 million people across the Lower 48 affected by drought. About 45 states were experiencing moderate drought conditions as of last week.

US Drought Map:

The drought also complicates matters for ranchers, as the nation’s cattle herd is already at its lowest level since the 1950s. As a result, some ranchers may further reduce their herds, which would only push USDA ground beef prices to new record highs.

Related:

• Meteorologists Warn About Super El Nino Event

• Washington, D.C. Will Feel Like June. Cue MSM Climate Doom Propaganda

• Drought Engulfs 60% Of U.S. As Farmers Begin Spring Planting

The drought spreading across America’s breadbasket is colliding with a secondary effect sparked by the disruption of energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz, raising the risk of fertilizer shortages that could translate into lower crop yields later this year. Reuters has reported that the UN’s food agency warned a prolonged Hormuz crisis could destabilize fertilizer shipments and drive food inflation higher. Time to hedge with a backyard garden.