JPMorgan Limits Lending To Private Credit Groups After Marking Down Loan Collateral
The barrage of negative private credit news, now that the $1.8 trillion bubble has burst, is coming hot and heavy.
Following last night’s report that Cliffwater, a private credit interval fund which according to Rubric Capital “is the canary in the coal mine and will be the first domino in the bank run” was the latest fund to be hit with 7% in investor redemptions (and unlike BlackRock, interval funds can not gate investors), this morning the FT reported that JPMorgan has “clamped down on its lending to private credit groups, with bankers looking to cut risk as concerns mount over the credit quality of companies in their stables.”
According to the report, the bank informed private credit lenders that it had marked down the value of certain loans in their portfolios, which serve as the collateral the funds use to borrow from the bank. The loans that have been devalued are to software companies, which are seen as particularly vulnerable to the onset of AI and which account for the bulk of private credit loans made in recent years.
The news, which hit just around 1am ET, hit S&P futures which until that point were trading at session highs.
JPMorgan’s decision will limit how much money the bank lends to private credit groups against those loans going forward, a sign traditional Wall Street banks are becoming increasingly nervous about the $1.8 trillion industry that has grown rapidly as non-bank lenders became top creditors to higher-risk borrowers.
The move was to be expected: JPM CEO Jamie Dimon has expressed an increasingly negative view of the private credit space, and told investors at the bank’s leveraged finance conference last week that it was being more prudent in lending against software assets. Troy Rohrbaugh, co-chief executive of JPMorgan’s commercial and investment business, told analysts at a February company update that the bank was becoming more conservative compared to its peers on the risks in private credit.
“As the world gets more volatile . . . this outcome should be expected,” he said, adding: “I’m shocked that people are shocked.”
One person briefed on the bank’s decision said the valuation haircuts did not trigger margin calls at funds but were done to pre-emptively reduce the amount of credit available to the funds.
“They have been more difficult the past three months,” the head of one fund said of JPMorgan’s willingness to provide back leverage. He added JPMorgan rarely got “rattled and this is the first time we’ve had a little issue”.
As we explained at the start of February, investors are concerned AI will heavily disrupt enterprise software businesses, with scrutiny centred on the companies and their private capital financiers who poured hundreds of billions of dollars into the space. Publicly traded software stocks and debt have all plummeted this year. Private credit lenders, by contrast, tend to hold loans for the entire term and have not marked down their portfolios in lockstep. Private lenders have said enterprise software companies are still growing and expect their loans to continue performing, as investors backstop the borrowers.
The growth of the private credit industry has been supplemented by leverage from regulated banks, debt that is critical in bolstering returns above high-yield bond or leveraged loan funds. Banks including JPMorgan, Wells Fargo and Bank of America have all lent heavily to the industry, in part because regulations allow them to reserve less capital than if they were lending to borrowers directly.
As the FT notes, the fundraising ability of private credit firms, which took in $400BN from wealthy individuals and hundreds of billions more from institutions since the end of 2020, has allowed the funds to provide larger loans and compete directly with banks on multibillion-dollar leveraged buyouts.
That included financing mega takeovers when software businesses were fetching high valuations given work-from-home trends, including Thoma Bravo’s $6.4bn takeover of customer service software company Medallia, and Permira and Hellman & Friedman’s $10.2bn buyout of Zendesk.
The problem is that much of the new issuance was rubberstamped by captured rating agencies at artificially inflated ratings, and as the new reality of reduced cash flows emerges, some banks are repricing their loans – carried until now at par – sharply lower and in some cases all the way to zero.
Additionally, that debt is maturing in the coming years and much of it faces a dramatically different outlook.
JPMorgan is an outlier in the private credit financing business as it reserves the right to revalue assets at any time. Most other banks require triggers such as missed interest payments. Private credit funds can dispute the marks, according to a sample credit financing agreement reviewed by the FT. That could take months and require a third-party valuation. In the meantime, the bank’s determination remains.
The FT writes that the bank considers individual analysis and macroeconomic factors when valuing loans, according to another person familiar with the bank’s thinking. It also looks to public proxies, such as investment vehicles that buy private credit loans, and occasional private trades it can evaluate.
“The point is to do it as needed, not only when there’s a crisis,” one person said
The good news for now is that private credit executives said they had not seen other banks take a similar view as JPMorgan. However, once more sources of funding to the private credit industry read the apocalyptic report by Rubric Capital, (available here to pro subscribers) we are confident that will change.
This morning, Bloomberg confirms that while mainstream Western shipping remains largely suspended through the Strait of Hormuz, recent 24-hour observations reveal a jump in Iran-linked traffic, specifically involving two sanctioned (read China-focused) VLCCs.
There were eight commercial transits on Tuesday and four more were identified early Wednesday, most of which have ties to Iran or have Chinese commercial links, according to vessel-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg.
Two sanctioned Iranian VLCCs, were seen exiting the Persian Gulf for Asia early Wednesday. Their drafts suggest both supertankers are fully laden, and since they saw no pushback from Iran, are headed toward China. As much as 13.7 million barrels of Iranian crude has been shipped through the strait since the war began on Feb. 28, according to Tankertrackers.com, a company that specializes in the use of satellite imagery to track vessels.
According to Bloomberg, one Iran-affiliated container-ships entered the Persian Gulf on Tuesday and another on Wednesday. In addition, a bulk carrier also entered the Gulf Wednesday signaling ‘China Owner All Chinese.’
This increase in activity comes amid an escalation in hostilities in the region. The cargo ship Mayuree Naree was hit by an unknown projectile, while transiting the Strait of Hormuz.
BREAKING:
Iran strikes a Thai ship attempting to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.
Thai authorities said the bulk carrier Mayuree Naree, sailing under the Thailand flag, was struck by projectiles while travelling about 18km north of Oman.
Another bulk carrier signaling ‘China Owner&Crew’ u-turned away from the strait following the incident, underscoring the heightened security risks.
As we reported previously, widespread electronic warfare tactics, including spoofing and signal jamming, have made real-time monitoring of traffic increasingly difficult. With several vessels opting to deactivate AIS transponders in high-risk areas, data accuracy is expected to lag, leading to an eventual upward revision of historical transit numbers.
Still, despite the occasional successful crossing, the bulk of the industry’s tonnage remains stuck on either side of the strait until maritime security is restored. Traffic through the channel was effectively halted following several attacks on merchant ships as Iran retaliated against US and Israeli strikes. Missile and drone activity continues to pose a critical risk to all vessels in the vicinity.
Hegseth Warns “Most Intense Day” Of Operation Epic Fury Imminent As IEA Plans “Largest-Ever” SPR Dump
America-Israel’s Operation Epic Fury entered its 12th day, with U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth indicating that the most intense phase of U.S. strikes is expected on Wednesday. Tehran responded with retaliatory strikes against Gulf neighbors, as Goldman’s foreign affairs chief warned of a growing risk of regional spillover (read here). Overnight, market attention centered on energy, with the IEA reportedly proposing its largest-ever emergency crude release to combat Brent and WTI prices, which have reached triple-digit territory.
“The most fighters, the most bombers, the most strikes. Intelligence more refined and better than ever. So that’s on one hand,” Hegseth said. “On the other hand, the last 24 hours have seen Iran fire the lowest number of missiles they’ve been capable of firing yet.”
Around 0900 ET, the IEA is expected to announce plans for a massive crude release into the market to cap Brent and WTI prices, which surged near $120 per barrel at the start of the week. In a note to premium subscribers, we outlined several problems that could arise and why any such release would only offer temporary relief.
Beyond the panic among G-7 leaders and the IEA over crude prices, the Trump administration has also pushed its own headlines on Tuesday in an effort to jawbone energy prices lower, as we explained here.
Jawboning headlines from G-7 and the Trump administration on Tuesday were shortly followed by headlines that Iran had begun mining the Strait of Hormuz. That came after President Trump warned Tehran not to “put out any mines” in the narrow waterway. Shortly afterward, the U.S. military said 16 Iranian mine-laying naval vessels had been eliminated.
Overnight reports described heavy U.S. and Israeli strikes on IRGC targets, with damage reported to oil facilities, civilian sites, and a hospital in Bushehr taken out of service. Iran has claimed that nearly 10,000 sites have been hit overall.
The latest casualty report states that more than 1,200 people have been killed by U.S. and Israeli strikes in Iran, according to the Iranian Red Crescent Society, and 13 have died in Israel as Iran retaliated with missiles and drones.
Chief Pentagon spokesperson Sean Parnell said that 140 U.S. service members have been wounded in the conflict so far.
“The vast majority of these injuries have been minor, and 108 service members have already returned to duty,” Parnell said. “Eight service members remain listed as severely injured and are receiving the highest level of medical care.”
The latest and most critical overnight headlines (courtesy of Bloomberg):
Military Attacks
The US and Israel are conducting strikes against Iran, hitting thousands of targets across the country and degrading missile launchers and command networks
B-52 bombers have been used to strike Iranian ballistic missile and command-and-control sites
More than 1,000 civilians have been killed according to a preliminary count by Human Rights Activists News Agency
Israel struck Iranian drone launch squads, though the White House cannot confirm reports of 150 US troops injured
A drone strike in Iraq’s Kurdistan region killed a member of an Iranian Kurdish armed opposition group, with the group blaming Iran for the attack
Regional Impact
The UAE’s air defenses are intercepting missile and drone attacks from Iran, with loud bangs heard in Dubai
Two drones fell near Dubai International Airport, injuring four people including two Ghanaian nationals and one Bangladeshi national
Turkish President Erdogan warned the war must be stopped before it engulfs the region in flames
The UAE President wrote a patriotic poem performed by the national orchestra honoring those protecting the nation
Energy Market
The International Energy Agency is considering releasing emergency oil reserves of 300-400 million barrels, potentially the largest in its history
The IEA is recommending a release of oil from strategic reserves exceeding 100 million barrels over the first month, according to sources
Brent crude futures rose 5% to $92.47 a barrel while West Texas Intermediate climbed 5.8% to $88.27 early Wednesday
Wood Mackenzie consultancy warns of oil prices potentially reaching $150+ per barrel due to the supply shock
Brent crude briefly surged to $119.5 per barrel late Sunday in one of the most dramatic spikes in recent oil-market history
Strait of Hormuz
President Trump threatened Iran in a Truth Social post with “military consequences” at a level “never seen before” if they were to place mines in the Strait.
Iran unleashes naval mines across the critical waterway, followed by US military announcing 16 IRGC mine-laying ships in the area were “eliminated”
Reuters says the US naval fleet is not ready for convoys through Strait
US Secretary Wright deleted the tweet on US Navy escorted oil tanker through Strait – WH says premature
IRGC Commander slams Wright for fake news
Three vessels hit by projectiles in Strait of Hormuz
Diplomatic Developments
Russia is constantly in touch with Iranian leadership and willing to contribute to efforts to stabilize the region, according to the Kremlin
Russian media argues that negotiations with the US always end with missiles hitting capitals, questioning Trump’s peace deal efforts
President Trump warned Iran against laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz, threatening military consequences at a level never seen before
Commenting on energy markets, UBS analyst Nana Antiedu cited Henri Patricot’s note on three scenarios in the conflict and potential oil/gas implications:
If there is a quick de-escalation of the US-Iran conflict by mid-March with no damage to critical oil infrastructure and flows via Hormuz resume, Henri Patricot sees Brent averaging $80/bbl in March, before dropping to the mid-$70s.
TTF gas prices would hold €50/MWh, before falling to the high-€30s in 2Q26. In the case where Hormuz disruptions persist for a month, both oil and gas markets would further tighten, increasing the pace of inventory drawdowns and supply shut from GCC countries.
Here, he expects oil prices to rise above $100/bbl in the second half of March, averaging $100/bbl in March and $78/bbl for 1Q26, before coming down to $90/bbl in 2Q26 as disruptions ease.
For gas, LNG supply would be reduced for longer, requiring more demand reduction, especially as spare capacity and storage are limited.
He would expect TTF to rise towards €80/MWh by end-March, averaging €65/MWh in March and €46/bbl for 1Q26, before coming down to €50/MWh in 2Q26.
In the final scenario, where there is extended disruption (longer than a month), Brent prices could average $110/bbl in March and might climb towards $150+ by 2Q26. On the gas side, TTF could average €73/MWh in March and rise to €80/MWh in 2Q26.
What’s clear is that the Middle East conflict has sent macroeconomic uncertainty soaring across the world, despite the White House saying the surge in energy prices is temporary.
The big headline this morning will be around 0900 ET from the IEA on crude inventory releases.
Insurance As A Weapon: How The Strait Of Hormuz Shapes Global Power And Energy Markets
Submitted by Thomas Kolbe
War is raging in Iran. Amid the fog of propaganda, it is increasingly difficult to separate fact from fiction, to distinguish AI-generated material from actual bomb strikes, and to see behind the carefully woven veil of media spin and national interests. Yet, we attempt here to make sense of the latest moves on the geopolitical chessboard.
One immediate consequence of the Strait of Hormuz blockade is a fatal ripple effect in the energy sector. Companies such as QatarEnergy are forced to reduce gas and oil production. Refineries are shutting down, and tankers can no longer transport output. The physical logistics of the energy market are faltering – with consequences far beyond the region.
Markets are responding nervously. Both spot and futures prices continue to climb. At the close of New York trading, WTI crude stood at around $93 per barrel, nearly a twenty percent increase since the U.S.-Israeli intervention against Iran’s Ayatollah regime.
From a European perspective, the implications are clear. The highly energy-dependent continent is increasingly politically adrift. For many governments, a lot is at stake if prices are not swiftly brought under control. Rising energy costs, growing production expenses, and mounting burdens on households and businesses threaten a new economic stress test for Europe.
For a week, Brussels has been in frenetic motion. Ursula von der Leyen’s European Commission stages media-friendly exercises that amount to little more than political shadowboxing: attempting to solve a shortage problem that cannot be eliminated through domestic production. Member states are currently discussing joint purchasing consortia and familiar tools such as subsidies and cost offsets for energy-intensive industries – the usual toolkit, deployed repeatedly in the past. In other words, much of it boils down to massive debt accumulation intended to temporarily alleviate the effects of the Hormuz blockade.
Looking to Germany, one sees how vulnerable Europe’s energy architecture remains. The rapid decline of gas storage levels underscores the importance of a robust strategic reserve.
In this context, the European decision to mandate a strategic oil reserve equivalent to at least ninety days of average consumption was farsighted. The timing and scale of reserve deployment remain uncertain.
A note on the disproportionately high gasoline prices in Germany: this is precisely the effect when a high-taxing fiscal state claims roughly 65 percent of the retail price. In an energy crisis, this structure paradoxically makes the state a short-term beneficiary of rising prices.
The Europeans’ inability to act was epitomized by German Environment Minister Carsten Schneider of the not-so-social Social Democrats. Faced with rising fuel costs, he bluntly recommended that Germans switch to electric cars. This cynical stance – coming from the security of a well-padded, subsidized political bubble – makes the attitude so unbearable. Those who drive the country economically – millions of commuters dependent on cars for their livelihood – are dismissed entirely.
Naturally, the expansion of renewable energy and the continued commitment to the green transition remain central points on the EU agenda. They simply cannot escape their closed, ideologically narrow argumentative framework.
Other options remain politically taboo. The exploration of domestic gas reserves in Europe or the long-term maintenance of coal-fired power – even in Germany – is still not seriously considered. The pressure on political decision-makers has evidently not yet reached a level sufficient to return to a pragmatic, rational energy policy.
From the U.S. perspective, the Hormuz blockade and the planned political power shift in Tehran fit into a larger strategic concept. Control over oil and gas flows from Venezuela, combined with the U.S.’s record domestic production, could create a significant problem for China, which is existentially dependent on imports from these regions.
Should the U.S. achieve its political objectives in Tehran, a massive shift of power would tilt in its favor. Together with the oil states more closely bound to its power structure, it could dominate the global energy market and substantially strengthen its position relative to Beijing.
This is of critical significance for future negotiations with China. It concerns not only energy but also access to rare earths, curbing Chinese influence in the Western Hemisphere, and the so-called fentanyl war, where the last word has certainly not yet been spoken.
Another observation is worth noting. In this reorganizing geopolitical power constellation, which is largely determined by access to energy and strategic resources, Europe has largely lost its strategic agency. Between the U.S., Russia, and China, it barely emerges as an independent actor.
Europe has thus accomplished a remarkable feat: politically caught between all stools – and now standing as a dependent price-taker in energy markets, with its back to the wall.
The Strait of Hormuz crisis has also shaken a previously overlooked market: maritime insurance. Following Tehran’s threat to close the strait, several tanker attacks occurred off the coast. Insurance premiums soared, and major providers – a market dominated by the City of London – immediately withdrew. Risks were too high, and coverage in the event of a claim could no longer be guaranteed.
This was the decisive moment: U.S. President Donald Trump announced that the U.S. Development Finance Corporation (DFC) would step into the gap. State-backed war and political risk coverage at “very reasonable” prices, as he put it, would provide relief. This creates a government-supported competitor to Lloyd’s. The U.S. is not only supplying insurance capacity but combining it politically with U.S. naval escorts – gunboats.
For the now virtually invisible British Empire in financial and insurance markets, this – following massive attacks on the London-based LBMA precious metals markets – would be the next pillar of its power structure to wobble, a framework previously sustained mainly through international trade.
In short: the next geopolitical lever for the U.S. comes into view, should it capture a significant portion of this insurance business. Whoever controls the underwriting lever – who decides which risks are covered and which tankers receive a policy – wields a massive sanctioning instrument. Insurance has thus become a geostrategic tool, with Europe left on the sidelines.
* * *
About the author: Thomas Kolbe, a German graduate economist, has worked for over 25 years as a journalist and media producer for clients from various industries and business associations. As a publicist, he focuses on economic processes and observes geopolitical events from the perspective of the capital markets. His publications follow a philosophy that focuses on the individual and their right to self-determination.
Seniors Hit With Billions In Extra Premiums From Medicare Overpayments: Report
Private insurers are padding their pockets with billions in alleged overpayments from Medicare Advantage, and hardworking American seniors are footing the bill through higher Part B premiums, according to a congressional report obtained by the Wall Street Journal.
The report, issued by the bipartisan Joint Economic Committee, shows that controversial practices, such as adding extra diagnoses to trigger larger government reimbursements, drove up Medicare Part B premiums by $13.4 billion in 2025 alone.
That amounts to roughly 10% higher costs, or more than $200 extra annually, for the average senior on a fixed Social Security income. The impact extends beyond enrollees in Medicare Advantage plans. Traditional Medicare beneficiaries are also paying higher premiums to help subsidize the private plans’ gains.
Rep. David Schweikert (R-AZ), who chairs the committee, said in a statement to the Journal, “Extra spending on Medicare Advantage is not just coming out of the federal government’s budget, a portion of this comes out of you.”
Politicians scream at each other over scraps while Medicare Advantage spits out $84B in overpayments in a single year.
That’s almost $1T in misaligned incentives we could fix in one reconciliation bill that pays for real health, not for coding seniors as sicker. pic.twitter.com/aG0RHSf5Bt
Medicare Advantage, which has long enjoyed support from Republicans, has faced growing bipartisan scrutiny. Among the biggest players in the business are UnitedHealth Group, Humana and Elevance Health.
Lawmakers and government investigators have been probing how insurers’ billing practices have contributed to Medicare Advantage costs. A congressional watchdog found Medicare Advantage costs the federal government more than traditional Medicare, partly because of insurers’ billing practices. The insurers are paid more to cover enrollees who have more health conditions, and they can boost their reimbursement by recording more diagnoses.
Medicare Part B, which covers doctor visits, lab tests, and outpatient services, had standard premiums around $185 per month in 2025, deducted directly from Social Security checks. Due to these alleged overpayments, however, everyone pays more for the same benefits.
Speaking to the Journal on Friday, Medicare agency administrator Mehmet Oz said that while he doesn’t believe Medicare Advantage insurers are as overpaid as has been reported, he did concede that, “we should change the rules.”
Trump Threatens ‘Unprecedented Military Consequences’ As Iran Reportedly Starts Mining The Strait Of Hormuz
Summary:
CNN says the IRGC had already begun laying explosive mines in the vital Strait of Hormuz.
Reuters: AS MANY AS 150 US TROOPS WOUNDED SO FAR IN IRAN WAR
CBS says US intelligence has begun to see indications Iran is taking steps to deploy mines in Strait of Hormuz shipping lane
Divergent signals flying between Tehran and Washington: Witkoff says Trump “always willing to talk” to Iran, the question is whether or not it is worth it. Trump-Putin spoke Monday, and Putin-Pezeshkian spoke Tuesday. Meanwhile Tehran defiant: no ceasefire, vows maximum pain.
Operation ‘mostly achieved goals’ – Trump says as WSJ reports officials seeking plans for offramp. Biggest airstrikes of the war.
Tehran vows ‘eye for an eye’ if US-Israel hit infrastructure. Iran leaders on various levels sounding hawkish and not backing down.
Oil/Energy: Iraq has shut down some oil wells, while Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia taking similar steps to curtail production. Qatar too: halted operations at several gas wells and shut down the liquefaction “trains” used to process natural gas for export.
Qatar urges halt to attacks, quick return to diplomacy – Foreign Ministry: “Reaching the negotiating table quickly and halting attacks would serve the interests of the peoples of the region as well as international peace and security, in addition to strengthening global economic stability.”
Pentagon claims “winning”: After ten days into Operation Epic Fury, Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth lists objectives that include destroying Iran’s missile infrastructure, defense industry, navy, and ensuring Tehran is “permanently” denied nuclear weapons.
Trump’s mixed messaging aswar could end ‘soon’ while saying Iran’s military is crippled, but also warns Tehran would be hit “20 times harder” if it disrupts oil traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Signs of Washington officials looking for an offramp. A mere few days ago Trump stressed the US would stop at nothing short of Iran’s “unconditional surrender” – but that continues to look dubious.
Iran rejects U.S. narrative: The IRGC says its missile program remains intact and claims it is firing larger salvos with heavier warheads, while officials insist Iran, not Washington, will decide when the war ends.
Regional escalation especially in Lebanon: Heavy IDF fighting continues with Hezbollah in Lebanon, while Gulf states intercept missiles and drones, and all the while Iranian leaders say US and Israeli regime-change efforts have failed and vow to prepare for a “long war” – even involving those who host American bases in region.
* * *
Update(1555ET): A fresh Tuesday CNN report says that Iran has already begun laying mines in the vital oil transit Strait of Hormuz waterway:
Iran has begun laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most important energy chokepoint that carries about one-fifth of all crude oil, according to two people familiar with US intelligence reporting on the issue.
The mining is not extensive yet, with a few dozen having been laid in recent days, the sources said. But Iran still retains upward of 80% to 90% of its small boats and mine layers, one of the sources said, so its forces could feasibly lay hundreds of mines in the waterway.
The report further says that after IRGC threats have already de facto closed the strait to nearly all international traffic (apparently unless they signal they are Chinese vessels) amid the ongoing drone and missile threat, it maintains the capability to deploy a “gauntlet” of dispersed mine-laying craft, continues CNN, including explosive-laden boats and shore-based missile batteries.
TRUMP RESPONDS to the reports, warns the Military consequences to Iran will be at a level never seen before.
Trump revised his tweet quickly, adding the following:
“Additionally, we are using the same Technology and Missile capabilities deployed against Drug Traffickers to permanently eliminate any boat or ship attempting to mine the Hormuz Strait.
They will be dealt with quickly and violently.
BEWARE!”
He also followed with saying that the US already destroyed ten inactive mine laying boats.
CENTCOM meanwhile quickly counter-signals that it stands ready to fight back:
U.S. forces are degrading the Iranian regime’s ability to project power at sea and harass international shipping. For years, Iranian forces have threatened freedom of navigation in waters essential to American, regional and global security and prosperity. pic.twitter.com/gIBN02mowh
Update(1458ET): In an afternoon WH press briefing, Karoline Leavitt was pressured by reporters on the scope of the Iran operations, as well as whether Trump will allow the new supreme leader to rule, as well as questions on what Trump meant when days ago he laid out that the US will not stop operations until Iran’s “unconditional surrender”. She struggled on some of these, but offered little new or substantive. One new and very alarming development, however, also mentioned in the WH briefing room – and not denied by Leavitt – was the following fresh Reuters report:
As many as 150 U.S. troops have been wounded so far in the war with Iran, two people familiar with the matter told Reuters on Tuesday.
The figure has not been previously reported and is far higher than the Pentagon’s publicly disclosed figure of 8 seriously wounded U.S. forces.
And another big afternoon development: CBS’ Jim LaPorta reports that US intelligence assets have begun to see indications Iran is taking steps to deploy mines in Strait of Hormuz shipping lane.
LaPorta added that Iran is reportedly using smaller crafts that can carry 2 to 3 mines each. While Iran’s mine stock isn’t publicly known, estimates over the years have ranged from roughly 2,000 to 6,000 naval mines of Iranian, Chinese and Russian-made variants.
* * *
Ten days of Operation Epic Fury have passed, and War Secretary Pete Hegseth asserted that the United States is “winning” against the “barbarian” Iranians, and that Tehran has been “racing” toward a nuclear bomb.
He listed in a Pentagon press briefing Tuesday morning that war objectives are to destroy missiles and the defense industrial base, to destroy Iran’s navy, and to ensure Iran can never obtain a nuclear weapon. He stressed that the goal includes to “permanently deny Iran nuclear weapons forever.“
He added: “We will not relent until the enemy is totally and entirely defeated.” This comes the day after President Trump said that he believes the war could end soon, even as Iranian officials signal they are preparing for a prolonged conflict.
“I think the war is very complete, pretty much,” Trump told CBS News. “They have no navy, no communications, they’ve got no air force.” Hours later in afternoon remarks from Florida, Trump warned that Iran would face massive retaliation if it tried to disrupt global oil flows, saying the United States would strike Tehran “20 times harder” if it attempted to block tankers in the Strait of Hormuz.
The Pentagon’s Tuesday morning briefing really emphasized steady destruction of Iranian missile sites – even underground ballistic launch bunkers – with heavy bunker busters. However, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has rejected Washington claims that its missile program has been destroyed, saying it is launching larger volleys of missiles with warheads weighing more than one ton.
Iran has continued retaliatory strikes on Israel and Gulf allies, including in Bahrain, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia. One person was killed in Manama and two others were killed in central Israel Monday into Tuesday.
While Israel’s military has heavily censored potential damage on the ground and the rate of Iran’s missile and drone attacks, unverified but widespread online accounts suggest it continues to get hit hard on a nightly basis.
Tehran meanwhile has experienced some of the heaviest bombardment of the war overnight, with at least 40 people reported killed near Risalat Square. Since the start of the war, at least 460 people have been killed and 4,309 wounded in Tehran alone, according to the figures of Mehr Soroush, deputy head of the Tehran Emergency Health Department. The Iranian capital is densely packed with a size and population comparable to New York City.
Across Iran, more than 1,200 people have been killed and over 10,000 injured. Even the newly named Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, may have been injured – reportedly before he was declared head of the country, state media has suggested.
Mohammad Jamalian, a member of Iran’s parliamentary health committee, has said nine hospitals are no longer operational due to the ongoing bombardment. Pharmaceutical stockpiles remain sufficient for about six months, he has described according to Al Jazeera, while non-elective surgeries have been suspended to free hospital capacity for emergency cases.
The conflict continues to expand regionally, with the Bahrain military saying it has intercepted and destroyed 105 missiles and 176 drones since Iran began attacks on countries hosting American forces. There remains a big open question on whether Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries will send their militaries to formally enter Operation Epic Freedom. Hawkish Senator Lindsey Graham has certainly been calling for it, saying the Gulf should do much more in its own defense.
Israel’s northern front also remains active, with Israeli strikes in Lebanon having pushed the death toll there to at least 486 people as Israel and Hezbollah continue exchanging fire.
“Rally round the flag” effect in the wake of Trump’s ‘shock and awe-style’ bombs on Tehran and elsewhere…
Powerful explosions erupt live on Iranian state TV — right from Revolution Square in Tehran
The Iranians didn’t flinch, showing even more defiance and waving their country’s flags even harder pic.twitter.com/Q17UvbUqI3
Israeli officials are also signaling that the war is far from over, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu saying in a visit to IDF troops, “Our aspiration is to bring the Iranian people to cast off the yoke of tyranny; ultimately, it depends on them. But there is no doubt that with the actions taken so far, we are breaking their bones – and we are not done yet.”
As for the narrative from Tehran, leaders remain defiant – also as there’s some degree of evidence of a “rally around the flag” effect, meaning Iranians have been filmed out in the street pledging allegiance to the nation and the new Supreme Leader. Iranian officials are loudly and boldly declaring Washington and Tel Aviv failed in their initial war objectives.
Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said the appointment of Mojtaba Khamenei has proven that regime change efforts have collapsed. “They thought that, in a matter of two or three days, they can go for a regime change, they can go for a rapid, clean victory, but they failed… they failed to achieve their goals at the beginning, and now, after 10 days, I think they are aimless,” Foreign Minister Araghchi told PBS News Hour.
Araghchi also rejected claims that Iran is responsible for rising oil prices and disruptions to global shipping, describing that “This is not our plan” and that “The oil production, the transportation of oil has been slowed down or stopped not because of us, because of the attacks and aggression made by Israelis and Americans against us.”
Iran says it is still prepared for a “long war” and to fight to the end. On the question of closing Hormuz, the Iranian top diplomat claimed, “We have not closed that strait. We are not preventing them to navigate in that strait. But this is the result of the aggression by Israelis and Americans, which has made the whole region insecure, unstable.” Additionally the IRGC has said that Iran, not the United States, will determine when the war ends.
Pressed on Iranian strikes targeting oil facilities in the region, Araghchi insisted Tehran is acting in self-defense. “We are facing an act of aggression, which is absolutely illegal. And what we are doing is the act of self-defense, which is legal and legitimate.”
Amid continuing Hormuz crisis, more analysts are waking up to fact that Iran’s capability to disrupt transit through the strait has little to do with the large surface vessels that Trump has been exuberant about sinking.
“Well, we have already warned everybody in the region that, if the US attacks us, since we cannot reach the American soil, we have to attack their bases in the region, their facilities, their installations, their assets.”
Iran’s foreign ministry has also taken the opportunity to fire back at European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen after she said the Iranian people “deserve freedom, dignity, and the right to decide their own future.”
“Please spare the hypocrisy,” foreign ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei wrote on X. “You’ve made a career out of standing on the wrong side of history — green-lighting occupation, genocide, and atrocities, and now laundering U.S./Israeli crime of aggression and war crimes against Iranians.”
“Where was your voice when more than 165 innocent IRANIAN little angels were massacred in the city of Minab?” he questioned. “Why don’t you say anything when hospitals, historical sites, oil facilities, diplomatic police headquarter, firefighting stations and residential neighborhoods are wickedly targeted?” He concluded that it’s been: “Silence in the face of lawlessness and atrocity is nothing less than complicity.”
The share of global web traffic generated by humans is shrinking, while bot activity is on the rise.
According to Imperva Bad Bot Reports, in 2018, humans still accounted for 62 percent of web traffic, with malicious bots at 20 percent and benign bots at 18 percent.
But over the past seven years, the balance of web traffic has shifted dramatically.
As Statista’s Tristan Gaudiat shows in the chart below, humans now represent less than half of all traffic (49 percent in 2024), while malicious bots have surged to 37 percent, accounting for well over twice the traffic of benign bots (14 percent).
How Europe’s Economic ‘Center Of Gravity’ Has Shifted Since 1950
Europe’s economic balance point has been slowly drifting east for decades.
This map traces the continent’s GDP-weighted “center of gravity” from 1950 to 2022, showing how Europe’s economic core has shifted from near Cologne toward Munich over time.
The visualization, via Visual Capitalist, created by The European Correspondent using data from the Maddison Project Database, reveals how decades of growth in Central and Eastern Europe have gradually reshaped the continent’s economic geography.
What Is an Economic “Center of Gravity”?
The economic center of gravity is a geographic point calculated by averaging countries’ locations weighted by their GDP. In simple terms, it marks the location where Europe’s economic activity would balance if GDP were distributed like weight on a map.
As economies grow or shrink relative to each other, the center moves accordingly. When western economies dominate, the center shifts west; when eastern or southern regions grow faster, the point moves in their direction.
This method provides a simple but powerful way to visualize long-term changes in regional economic influence.
Postwar Europe: Western Dominance
In the decades following World War II, Europe’s economic core sat firmly in the northwest. Industrial powerhouses like Germany, France, the UK, and the Benelux countries drove most of the continent’s output.
This concentration kept the center of gravity near Cologne in the mid-20th century. Western Europe’s rapid reconstruction and integration—through institutions like the European Economic Community—reinforced this geographic economic core.
Germany in particular has long played an outsized role in Europe’s economy. In fact, the country’s output rivals that of dozens of its neighbors combined.
The Rise of the East
Since the end of the Cold War, the center has gradually shifted eastward.
The collapse of the Soviet bloc opened Central and Eastern European economies to global trade and investment. Countries like Poland, Czechia, and Hungary integrated into EU supply chains and saw rapid economic expansion.
More recently, fast-growing economies in Southeastern Europe and Türkiye have added additional pull. Together, these changes nudged Europe’s economic center toward Bavaria, landing near Munich by 2022.
Germany Still Anchors Europe’s Economy
Despite this eastward movement, the center remains firmly inside Germany.
This reflects Germany’s continued role as Europe’s industrial engine. Its manufacturing sector, export strength, and central location keep it at the heart of the continent’s economic geography.
In other words, while Eastern Europe is rising, Germany’s gravitational pull still holds the balance point nearby, at least for now.
See where workers in Europe generate the most GDP per hour on the Voronoi app.
The European Parliament’s Committee on Civil Liberties, Justice and Home Affairs voted on Monday to adopt a harder line on asylum returns.
The committee voted 41 to 32, with one abstention, in favor of implementing a single framework for handling third-country nationals staying illegally in European Union member states.
The majority was formed by the European People’s Party (EPP) together with right-wing groups, including the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR), Patriots for Europe (PfE), and the Europe of Sovereign Nations (ESN) group.
Lawmakers from the Socialists and Democrats, Renew Europe, the Greens, and the Left opposed the measure.
The proposed regulation would introduce EU-wide recognition of return decisions, meaning migrants ordered to leave one member state could be deported by another. It would also expand the use of detention while deportations are organized, allowing detention periods of up to 24 months.
Furthermore, the text opens the possibility for deportation centers in third countries under agreements with EU states and introduces stricter entry bans and enforcement measures.
L’UE reprend enfin sa politique migratoire en main.
Le mois dernier, nous votions le durcissement de la politique d’asile de l’Union. Aujourd’hui, le Parlement européen vient de voter en commission des libertés civiles sa position sur le règlement retour, qui facilitera… pic.twitter.com/UFdoDANTVJ
French MEP Marion Maréchal welcomed the vote, saying, “The EU is finally taking back control of its migration policy. Today, the European Parliament has just voted in the Committee on Civil Liberties on its position on the return regulation, which will considerably facilitate the detention and expulsion of illegal immigrants or rejected asylum seekers.”
Maréchal added that the vote showed a new right-wing coalition was decisive in shaping EU migration policy.
“Once again, the right-wing coalition, including our ECR group, is the pivotal force, which also includes the EPP, the Patriots, and the Sovereignists, and has prevailed over the left.”
Europe is waking up: Those who do not have a right to stay will be deported.
Tonight’s vote in the European Parliament solidifies a historic deal among right wing groups.
Swedish MEP Charlie Weimers said the vote could lead to stronger enforcement of deportation decisions.
“Soon, more deportations of those who do not belong in Europe will become a reality,” he said.
In an ECR press release following the vote, Weimers cited figures from the European Commission that revealed only 20 percent of failed asylum seekers, “who receive a return decision, are actually returned.”
“For too long, the European debate has focused on ineffective procedures rather than achieving results. A return system that works in practice is essential for maintaining public trust in Europe’s asylum system,” he added.
Taka radość po przegłosowaniu na komisji PE przepisów pozwalających skuteczniej odsyłać nielegalnych imigrantów z UE! 😊
Zaraz potem rozpoczął się jazgot skrajnej lewicy, która nie mogła się z tym pogodzić. Słychać wycie? Znakomicie 😎
— Ewa Zajączkowska-Hernik (@EwaZajaczkowska) March 9, 2026
Polish MEP Ewa Zajączkowska-Hernik also celebrated the result. “Such joy after the European Parliament committee voted in favor of regulations allowing for more effective return of illegal immigrants from the EU,” she said.
“The ‘Regulation establishing a common system for the return of third-country nationals staying illegally in the EU’ is another victory for the right wing in the European Parliament. Citizen safety is paramount,” she added.
The measure will now move toward a vote in the full European Parliament before negotiations can begin with the European Council.
On Tuesday afternoon, reports that a U.S. warship had escorted an oil tanker through the critical chokepoint helped push Brent crude futures down toward $81/bbl, reinforcing the view that paralysis on the waterway has, for now, begun to ease.
But even with signs that the critical maritime chokepoint is seeing a modest pickup in activity, this does not imply that normalcy will return this week. In fact, Bloomberg cites ship-tracking data showing uncertainty remains high, with at least 25 tankers diverted toward Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea export hub at Yanbu.
Saudi Aramco is maxing out its east-west pipeline to Yanbu, which can carry 7 million barrels per day. CEO Amin Nasser said flows should reach capacity within days as tankers divert to the energy export hub in the Red Sea. The UAE is implementing a similar workaround in Fujairah, where exports have jumped to about 1.6 million bpd this month from a recent average of about 1.1 million bpd.
“We should reach capacity in a couple of days,” Nasser said. “It’s all building on the repositioning of tankers from the east to the west.”
Bloomberg notes the conflict has already knocked about 6% off global oil output as traditional Hormuz transits remain disrupted.
Earlier, Ali Larijani, the secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, warned that the Hormuz chokepoint will “either be a strait of peace and prosperity for all” or a “strait of defeat and suffering for warmongers” as President Trump threatens retaliation against Tehran for disrupting the flow of oil.
