Five Iran Women Soccer Players Defect In Australia, Trump Urges Immediate Asylum
The ongoing Iran war is a rare modern conflict where warring powers can in an unprecedented manner (generally-speaking in terms of the modern age) address each other directly over social media. For example Iranian top official accounts are busy trying to troll Washington in defiance, even as the US bombs fall. “9 days into Operation Epic Mistake, oil prices have doubled while all commodities are skyrocketing. We know the U.S. is plotting against our oil and nuclear sites in hopes of containing huge inflationary shock. Iran is fully prepared. And we, too, have many surprises in store,” Iran Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi wrote on X Monday.
But President Trump on the same day had his own card to play, highlighting the plight of the Iranian National Women’s Soccer team, which appears stuck in increasingly sensitive and possibly dangerous situation after playing in Australia. Trump wrote: “Australia is making a terrible humanitarian mistake by allowing the Iran National Woman’s Soccer team to be forced back to Iran, where they will most likely be killed. Don’t do it, Mr. Prime Minister, give ASYLUM. The U.S. will take them if you won’t.”
Stretching back days, and weeks – even before the start of Operation Epic Fury – there were conflicting reports over the team’s response during the singing of the national anthem. There are widespread headlines they have been refusing to sing the national anthem, resulting in threats from Tehran officials.
At this point it remains anything but clear whether the entire team is requesting asylum, or whether just several individuals are. Australian broadcast reports say at least five are in hiding:
Five female soccer players who it was feared would face persecution when they returned to Iran have left their accommodation in the Gold Coast and plan to seek asylum in Australia, multiple sources have told the ABC.
Fatemeh Pasandideh, Zahra Ghanbari, Zahra Sarbali, Atefeh Ramazanzadeh, and Mona Hamoudi, who all play for the Iran women’s national football team, refused to sing the national anthem before their opening match with South Korea at the Women’s Asian Cup earlier this month.
Now, a family member of one of the athletes, who we have agreed not to name, and activists within the Iranian Australian community have told the ABC the players have evaded the team’s handlers and are being protected by police in Queensland.
Trump says PM Albanese is “on it”….
The NY Times and others have since reported that an Australian government representative is in contact with the five, and has briefed them on their options. The pressure on the ladies grows, at a moment their homeland – and possibly their own family members – are under US-Israeli bombs.
Some intense public scenes have played out after the team lost its last group match at the Women’s Asian Cup on Sunday. “Just 24 hours earlier, Australian protesters laid siege to a tour bus transporting Iranian female soccer players,” one foremost Australian broadcaster reported.
Many among the crowd that rushed the bus carried pre-Islamic revolution Iran flags, and are apparently pro-monarchy Iranians which make up part of the diaspora.
Some of the chaotic scenes, which have been seized upon by Pro-Pahlavi oppositionists…
Iranian football fans plead with Australia “Save our Girls” as they surround a bus transporting the Iranian National Women’s Football Team.
The team defiantly refused to sing the Islamic Republic national anthem and could face severe retribution if they return to Iran. pic.twitter.com/kYIKrTev0z
While it’s becoming clear the team could face threats from there own government at home – if not also the pressing threat of US-Israeli bombs from the sky, Al Jazeera has made clear that at least some of them want to urgently be reunited with their familiesat home:
While the players have not publicly aired any concerns for their own safety, they have spoken about the difficulty of playing in a tournament thousands of kilometers away from home while being “fully disconnected” from their families during the US-Israeli attacks.
Their head coach, Marziyeh Jafari, has been quoted as saying by Australian media that the players want to return to Iran “as soon as we can”.
“I want to be with my country and home. … We are eager to come back,” the Australian Associated Press quoted Jafari as saying in a postmatch news conference.
Without doubt, the international media spotlight looks to make their plight and decision-making even more difficult – again, also as people in Tehran take notice:
Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting presenter Mohammad Reza Shahbazi said in a video that the players showed a lack of patriotism and their actions amounted to the “pinnacle of dishonour” in footage that circulated widely on social media.
Shahbazi then stressed what is likely the prevailing Iranian government view at this moment: “Let me just say one thing: Traitors during wartime must be dealt with more severely.”
These and other comments have caused opposition voices to warn that the Woman’s Soccer Team might not only face scrutiny, investigation, and harassment upon returning home – but possibly even death, should they be deemed ‘traitors’.
The FBI has collected a large volume of Arizona election records from the state’s Senate as part of a grand jury investigation. The subpoena indicates a broader scope of the investigation into irregularities in the 2020 election.
The records pertain to the Arizona State Senate’s 2020 audit of Maricopa County, according to a March 9 X post by the Senate’s president, Warren Petersen. The county, where nearly two-thirds of Arizonans live, has been at the center of multiple controversies, including unsuccessful litigation by multiple Republican campaigns.
The subpoena, first reported by Just the News, was confirmed to The Epoch Times by a source familiar with the investigation. The large volume of electronic data includes ballots and voter records, according to the source.
The grand jury probe may indicate a wider investigation. In January, the FBI raided election offices of Fulton County, Georgia, which covers the broader Atlanta area, as part of a criminal investigation into potential violations of federal law. Concerned citizens have discovered a plethora of problems with the county’s 2020 election. Even if the issues didn’t affect the election’s outcome, they may still amount to criminal violations, said the search warrant’s affidavit, released last month.
The problems included chain of custody failures and duplicate ballot images, as well as incorrectly reported recount results.
The Trump administration has been moving aggressively to probe election law compliance.
The Department of Justice (DOJ) is suing at least 29 states for voter records that contain non-public information, particularly driver’s license numbers or last four digits of the social security number. The DOJ stated it has lawful authority to review the records to check for compliance with federal election laws. States, mostly those run by Democrats, have argued various state laws and privacy concerns prevent them from sharing the data.
President Donald Trump has maintained that in 2020, election victory was stolen from him. His lawyers vigorously and unsuccessfully challenged the results. Since then, Republican states have significantly tightened election rules while the Democratic ones have generally moved in the opposite direction.
Trump is also pushing a sweeping election reform bill, the SAVE America Act, which would require voters to present proof of citizenship, such as a passport or a birth certificate, to register to vote. The GOP-controlled House passed the bill last month. But Senate Republicans only have 53 votes, seven short of overcoming the filibuster. They remain divided on whether to abolish the rule.
Democrats have called the bill an attempt at voter suppression.
Security Fears Suddenly Emerge Over Trump’s Visit To China
President Donald Trump’s forthcoming high-stakes visit to China will be restricted to Beijing alone due to both a demanding schedule and heightened security concerns, according to a report in the South China Morning Post.
“Unfortunately, his schedule is very tight. There is no room to squeeze in a visit to a second city,” one source told the SCMP.
“While the schedule is tight, security is also a top concern,” another source told the newspaper. “Adding a second destination will likely compromise security and create a logistical nightmare, so both sides agreed that the visit will be in Beijing only. There is a chance for Trump to visit Shenzhen during Apec [in November], so why hurry?”
“Given the situation [in the Middle East], the visit’s security arrangements must be extremely careful but we are very confident that the summit will be a success,” another source told the newspaper.
The White House has confirmed that Trump will travel to China from March 31 to April 2, marking the president’s first visit to the country since 2017.
Recent U.S.-Israeli military strikes on Iran, which resulted in the death of the regime’s supreme leader Ali Khamenei, have had only a “very limited” effect on preparations for the summit, according to SCMP’s sources.
The visit will come as the U.S. and China seek to preserve a fragile trade truce. The pause in escalation stems from a meeting between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the 2025 APEC summit in Busan, South Korea. After months of rising tariffs, restrictions on rare-earth exports, and agricultural boycotts, the two leaders agreed to a one-year truce that eased pressures on the global economy’s two largest players.
“There seems to be a really strong appetite to maintain that fragile trade truce that we saw struck in late 2025,” Nick Marro, global trade lead at the Economist Intelligence Unit, told SCMP. “I think, at best, we could see this continuation of a detente in tariff policy.”
Trump has characterized the 2025 deal as a “massive victory,” highlighting reductions in certain U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods (from around 57% to 47% in key areas like fentanyl-related levies), while China pledged to resume substantial purchases of American soybeans, sorghum, and other agricultural products, suspend new rare-earth restrictions, and cooperate on curbing fentanyl flows.
The Busan accord provided breathing room for American farmers and manufacturers, halted further escalation, and created space for potential longer-term talks – even as underlying structural disputes over technology and supply chains persist.
“Both sides will look for deliverables that can be packaged as wins they can present at home,” Wang Dan, China director at Eurasia Group, told SCMP, adding, “This could include numerical commitments for soybeans, energy and manufactured goods from the US.”
This week, thousands of workers are receiving pink slips. They are not being let go due to inflation or outsourcing to foreign countries. To the contrary, they are being fired because booming sectors of the economy no longer need them. Indeed, it is an economy that may need fewer and fewer humans.
Amazon this week announced further job cuts due to robotics and AI. Recently, Jack Dorsey, the co-founder of Twitter, announced that his company Block would be laying off 40 percent of its employees. He cited AI as reducing the need for human employees.
These economic changes are unfolding all around us. We are looking at one of the greatest job losses in history.
In a free-market system, such technological changes tend to offset losses with new jobs in emerging industries. And there will be such growth with the AI and robotic revolutions. But it is also likely that we are looking at a static class of unemployed and practically unemployable citizens as this new revolution unfolds.
“Low-skill jobs are the most likely to be replaced by a robotic workforce,” I write in the book.
“Amazon warehouses are now entirely mechanized with twelve different types of over seven thousand robots moving rapidly to collect and direct goods where hundreds of people were once employed.”
But what is most notable about the Amazon announcement is that these were white-collar jobs. The impact of AI is not confined to factory workers and truck drivers.
The danger is that politicians will react predictably and try to subsidize jobs that are no longer viable and industries that are being dramatically downsized. At the same time, they are likely to expand model programs in Democratic cities for universal basic or guaranteed income.
Democrats have moved forward with more than 60 bills creating such programs, and this week, Cook County, Ill. (the second-largest county in the U.S.) made permanent the universal basic income program it had originally launched with federal COVID-19 relief funds.
The problem is the creation of what I call a “kept citizenship” in a republic designed for people who are economically and politically independent from the government.
That system is seriously undermined by a large percentage of citizens living off the government dole.
The solution cannot be an “arts-and-crafts” population kept entertained by government programs to learn glassblowing and pottery-making.
A different type of citizen would emerge that is unlikely to be sufficiently free of the government to counter its excesses or failures.
“Rage and the Republic” lays out what I call a “liberty-enhancing economy.” It notes that this is not just the 250th anniversary of the Declaration of Independence but the 250th anniversary of the release of Adam Smith’s Wealth of Nations. The founders immediately embraced Smith’s economic theories as the perfect companion for their political theories. They believed that true freedom requires economic independence from government.
That means accepting the economic changes and the loss of certain jobs. AI and robotics will largely wipe out certain jobs from taxi drivers to radiologists to warehouse workers. Meanwhile, we need to focus on homocentric jobs. In the book, I called these “Guinan jobs” after the bartender on the starship Enterprise in “Star Trek: The Next Generation.” As a kid, I was always confused by Guinan (played by Whoopi Goldberg), who would mix a drink next to a replicator that could produce the perfect Romulan cocktail every time without fail or variation. Customers clearly wanted Guinan to make the cocktail, even if it is not perfect every time.
The question I ask is, how many “Guinan jobs” are out there. There are many, including teachers, psychiatrists and lawyers, who will be affected but likely not eliminated by AI. We will still want humans in these positions.
All governments will face this existential crisis in the 21st Century. It will create growing instability globally. Although AI and robotics will make goods cheaper and more widely available, they are also likely to have a dramatic effect on populations. For example, as production costs drop with the new technology, there will be less advantage to moving factories to other countries with cheaper labor forces, such as China and Mexico.
Companies may choose to build near consumer markets to save on transportation costs while utilizing higher-skilled worker populations to maintain robotic and AI systems. That could produce massive unemployment in certain countries with low-educated, low-income populations. That in turn could destabilize governments and increase the chances of war in countries with large populations of unemployed young men.
I also do not feel great optimism for global governance systems like the European Union. The EU has largely eviscerated the elements I identify in the American Revolution as producing the oldest and most stable democratic system. Although global governance is likely to increase, it could fail spectacularly due to its inherent instabilities.
In the U.S., this period of economic change is likely to fuel calls for socialist policies. Socialism has always thrived on economic upheavals. Indeed, socialists often use their own failures to further collectivize or centralize economies.
Our republic is uniquely situated to not only survive but to thrive in the 21st Century. It was conceived in and designed for changing economic conditions. But if we are to survive, we must remain faithful to the constitutional structure that has afforded us stability for more than two centuries. Despite calls to trash the Constitution, pack the Supreme Court and change our political system, these protections are the very things that can get us through this century intact.
The Founders designed our Republic to prevent the tendency of democracies to become what one called a “mobocracy.” They knew that political and economic instability could create a form of “democratic despotism” in which democracies devoured themselves.
We have a system that has overcome challenges — from redcoats to robots — that have crushed other countries. However, we must remember who we are. Our nation, created in the winds of change by a free and industrious people, need not fear change. It is a system designed for bad times, not good times. The true crisis is a crisis of faith being fueled by some in academia and in the media.
This republic will survive so long as it does not die by our own hand.
Jonathan Turley is a law professor and the author of the New York Times bestselling “Rage and the Republic: The Unfinished Story of the American Revolution.“
Travelers in the United States are facing significant delays at airports due to the ongoing federal government shutdown, the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) stated on March 8 in a post on social media.
“Today, travelers are facing TSA lines of up to nearly 3 hours long at some major airports,” said Lauren Bis, deputy assistant secretary for public affairs at TSA, on X.
This has resulted in “missed flights and massive delays during peak travel.”
Referring to TSA officers, Bis said, “These frontline heroes received only partial paychecks earlier this month and now face their first full missed paycheck, leading to financial hardship, absences, and crippling staffing shortages,” and called on Democrats to fund the Department of Homeland Security (DHS).
A recent travel update issued by William P. Hobby Airport in Houston, Texas, shared by DHS, stated that passengers should arrive at least four to five hours before flight departure to allow enough time for TSA screening, with estimated wait times for the screening exceeding 180 minutes or 2.5 hours.
“Houston Airports urges passengers to remain flexible as the government shutdown may impact security operations from one day—and even one shift—to the next,” the post stated, advising travelers to get in touch with their airlines for further support.
The federal shutdown, which began on Feb. 14, is in its 23rd day. DHS funding issues arising from the shutdown have resulted in staff shortages.
On March 5, the House of Representatives passed a bill to fund DHS. The vote was 221–209, with four Democrats joining all Republicans in voting for it.
However, Senate Democrats blocked the funding legislation, which received 51 votes with 45 opposed. Sixty votes are needed for the spending bill to move forward.
The Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and Customs and Border Protection, which are part of DHS, are funded through 2029 under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. However, TSA, the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), and the Coast Guard, are impacted.
Democrats have demanded certain conditions that primarily apply to ICE operations to be met before allowing the funding bill to pass.
These include limiting immigration enforcement to targeted operations, requiring judicial warrants before entering private property, ending what they describe as indiscriminate arrests, verifying citizenship before detention, requiring agents to clearly identify themselves, and restricting operations in locations like churches, schools, and medical facilities.
Flight Delays
As of Sunday at 9:40 p.m. ET, there have been 7,233 flight delays and 673 cancellations at U.S. airports, according to data from FlightAware. On March 7, there were 9,693 delays and 1,339 cancellations.
George Bush Intercontinental Airport (IAH) in Houston asked passengers in a post on X to arrive early to make time for TSA clearance.
The Louis Armstrong New Orleans International Airport, which serves New Orleans and the Gulf Coast Region, said in a March 8 post on X that there were “longer-than-average lines” at the airport due to a shortage of TSA workers.
The airport advised passengers to arrive at least three hours prior to their scheduled departure time to make sure there is enough time for security screening.
The Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport also issued a warning in an X post, saying passengers could expect longer wait times at TSA checkpoints due to staffing constraints and the “residual impacts from two ground stops issued Friday.”
The Austin-Bergstrom International Airport had warned back in a March 5 post on social media that “unanticipated delays” could occur due to the partial federal shutdown.
In a March 8 statement, Chris Sununu, the CEO of Airlines for America, a trade association of leading U.S. airlines, said that TSA officers are facing a $0 paycheck this week and that the DHS shutdown was causing “significant strains” across the aviation system.
At some airports, TSA lines are two hours to three hours long, resulting in flights being delayed and passengers missing their timely travel, the CEO said.
“The shutdown is having very real consequences, and hardworking federal aviation workers, the airline industry and our passengers are being used as a political football once again. This is simply unacceptable and un-American,” Sununu said.
“We are in spring break travel season and expecting record numbers of people to take to the skies. Airlines have done their part to prepare; now Congress and the administration must act with urgency to reach a deal that reopens DHS and ends this shutdown. America’s transportation security workforce is too important to be used as political leverage.”
Goldman’s Global Affairs Chief Warns Of Middle East Spillover Threats
West Texas Intermediate crude futures spiked as high as $111 a barrel on Sunday evening as the deepening Middle East conflict sent panic through oil markets, with supplies from key Gulf producers going offline and the Strait of Hormuz remaining paralyzed into week two.
The key question on some energy desks is whether this energy shock will force President Trump to scale back Operation Epic Fury in a TACO-style retreat by Tuesday with WTI in triple-digit territory. That is hard to say, given that U.S. Central Command stated on X over the weekend that the operation will only accelerate from here.
But BofA’s Michael Hartnett suggests a de-escalation of the Iran war in March (read the note). That’s because Trump’s approval ratings for the economy (40%) and inflation (36%) are back at their lows.
The larger concern now, beyond the energy market, is the risk of a global spillover. As Jared Cohen, President of Global Affairs and Co-Head of the Goldman Sachs Global Institute, warned investors on the GS Weekend Macro Call, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps maintains cells across multiple emerging market countries and could begin activating them.
“What I am looking for next is that they have meaningful cells in the Tri-Border Area of Latin America, West Africa, and elsewhere. They could hit an embassy, they could hit a consulate, or they could hit a cultural center in any one of the twelve countries they have already attacked,” Cohen explained.
He continued, “They could do something in Europe. They could carry out a meaningful cyberattack. Right now, in the Strait of Hormuz, they have essentially blocked it by driving up insurance costs. They could still mine it. And the Houthis have not done anything yet in the Red Sea. You could also see something involving undersea cables, where 80% of Europe-Asia internet traffic flows.”
“So that’s kind of what I’m watching for,” Cohen told clients. However, he didn’t mention in that thought of whether terror fallouts would wash up on the shores of the U.S. Homeland, given the illegal alien invasion by the Democrats under the Biden-Harris administration.
The U.S. Homeland has already had a few wakeup calls:
While JPMorgan analysts are closely watching the risk of Gulf oil shut-ins exceeding 4 million barrels per day by the end of next week, Cohen’s role at Goldman is to focus on geopolitical risk, and anyone who heard his webinar this weekend would come away with the view that spillover risks ex-Middle East could soon be a major risk.
Don’t lose the plot. Embrace the suck. This is the world’s hard time, for now. The birth of anything can be a bloody horror. It can even look like death. Don’t be too afraid to see what comes on the other side of this awful spectacle.
So many Americans are rooting and wishing for the Iran war to turn out badly for Western Civ. And why? Because Trump. And why? Because at the same time he is ending Iran’s long-running nuclear blackmail game, he is terminating the rackets of the Democratic Party. The incipient changes in operational order create new categories of winners and losers.
Now you know why Hamas and Hezbollah terrorists run on the same track as America’s Woke-Jacobin-Marxists, including the pitifully deluded wine ladies of posh West LA, Grosse Point, Beacon Hill, Fairfax County, et cetera, whose brains have been hijacked by the cable news demon factory (and their sponsors). Chaos does everything possible to avoid meeting order.
And this is why passing the SAVE Act is as consequential as ridding the Middle East of its chief chaos agent. Do you realize how perfectly insane our country’s election procedure has become? The fraud is titanic and right in your face, and the remedy is so plain and simple. What possible excuse is there to thwart it? Non-citizens have no right to vote. Mail-in ballots are patently subject to chicanery. Vote tabulation machines are demonstrably hackable. 80-percent of Americans know this is the truth. How is there controversy over this?
How? Because among all the broken institutions in our country, Congress is the worst. The Congress of our time is demonstrating that we might not be worthy of governing ourselves. We are at a cycle-low for public rectitude. Anything goes and nothing matters as long as the campaign contributions keep rolling in.
You see how this has been going.
But mark this: we are going to get election reform one way or another. It’s that urgent, and failure to accomplish it by legislation will warrant a national emergency. And when the election machinery has been fixed, we had better do something about the plague of corporate money that runs like poison through our politics because of the Supreme Court’s foolish decision in the 2010 Citizens United case. They decided (by a slim 5-4 majority) that limitless campaign contributions by corporations amounted to free speech under the Constitution.
I will tell you concisely why this was tragically fallacious. Free speech in our country is a God-given right of sovereign citizens. Corporations are not citizens. Corporations don’t have obligations, duties, and responsibilities to the public interest (a.k.a. the common good). Corporations explicitly, by law, have obligations, duties, and responsibilities solely to their share-holders. The interests of corporate share-holders and the nation’s public interest are manifestly oppositional. Perhaps now you can see why this was such a dreadful invitation to political chaos.
So, Mr. Trump, for all his flaws, attempts to bring order out of chaos at home and in global relations, and the agents of chaos mightily resent the shut-down of their precious chaos. With Iran, it has come to fighting fire with fire. It’s unlikely that most of the people in that country seek to become martyrs. The cult of martyrdom is strictly the business of the maniacs who seized power there in 1979, a reign of terror, extended by proxy around the whole Middle East and beyond.
Entwined with Iran’s oil business, and the energy security of many nations, the mullahs inflect the trade of this primary resource with their chaos. The world cannot cope with chaos in the oil trade. The collapsing regime of the mullahs wants to go out turning the entire world into a martyr. Just like the Democratic Party wants to martyr the founding principles of the USA to preserve its matrix of moneygrubbing and power-seeking.
These are two forces that require the most severe discipline and Mr. Trump is acting to impose exactly that. It’s painful to witness, but it must happen if we want to continue the human project as a reality-based enterprise.
So, heed what is at stake in the events unspooling. This is a dark moment in a journey back to daylight. Have faith. As the old American hymn goes: Farther along we’ll know more about it; farther along we’ll understand why.
Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ZeroHedge.
Satellite Data Shows Iran Moving Crude Through Hormuz Chokepoint, Putting Kharg Island In Focus
Ten days into the U.S.-Israeli Operation Epic Fury against Iran, which has forced shut-ins at major Gulf oil and gas facilities, disrupted production at key oil fields, sent stockpiles soaring, sparked a global energy crisis (Brent crude hit $119/bbl highs overnight) and severely disrupted commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most critical energy chokepoint, new satellite imagery data from TankerTrackers, first cited by Bloomberg, suggests Tehran has recently moved substantial volumes of crude through the waterway.
Geospatial intelligence data from TankerTrackers estimates that Iran-linked tanker flows through the Strait of Hormuz have topped nearly 12 million barrels since Feb. 28, the start of Operation Epic Fury. Because the data is delayed, updated satellite imagery may only suggest that the actual figure is much higher.
— TankerTrackers.com, Inc. (@TankerTrackers) March 8, 2026
TankerTrackers’ data is notable because much of the traffic through Hormuz has been paralyzed, sending Brent crude futures to nearly $120/bbl in overnight trading. The firm’s data is useful for tracking Iran-linked dark fleet tankers that switch off their transponders.
On X, TankerTrackers reported that a Suezmax tanker that recently went dark by switching off its transponder while transiting the Strait has switched it back on and is now headed to India.
UPDATE: One of the Suezmax tankers has now appeared back on AIS, and is approaching Mumbai, India with a million barrels of Saudi crude oil. Her name is SHENLONG (9379210). There are still a few more which may appear on AIS given that at least one of them is heading to China. pic.twitter.com/MFqnjpkuCe
— TankerTrackers.com, Inc. (@TankerTrackers) March 9, 2026
Two days before Operation Epic Fury began, we told readers that Iran was rushing crude onto tankers in anticipation of an incoming conflict.
We noted last week that as long as Iranian crude continues to flow, pressure will only build on the Trump administration to address Kharg Island, Tehran’s main export hub, where roughly 80% to 90% of the country’s crude is loaded onto tankers.
Kharg Island remains one of the IRGC’s most important financial lifelines, and if the administration is serious about dismantling the regime’s funding pipeline, the export island will become difficult to ignore. Whether that means bombing it, seizing it, or pursuing some other option is a separate question entirely. But we do think the conversation will soon shift to pathways for the US to control Kharg Island.
Oil Plummets As Trump Says Iran War ‘Very Far Ahead Of Schedule’ & So Could Be Over Soon
Summary:
Trump tells CBS “the war could be over soon.” Oil prices drop on the headline.
Lebanon wants direct peace talks with Israel to end fighting but Israeli rejects it, also amid US skepticism: Axios.
Trump says too soon to talk about seizing Iran’s oil but does not rule it out, tells NBC.
Analyst consensus on question of potentially protracted conflict: Iran Signals a Fight to the End With Appointment of Khamenei’s Son
Senator Graham: “The American Embassy is being evacuated in Riyadh because of sustained attacks by Iran against the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.”
Timeline to end Iran war?Trump signals decision will be only after ‘mutual’ decision with Netanyahu.
Trump Truth Social post calls for Australia to give Iran National Woman’s Soccer team Asylum, but it remains unclear if the whole team is actually requesting it, or if individuals are.
Iranian official to Al Jazeera: “we are able to continue the war for a long time and there is no room for diplomacy now.”
G7 ‘closely monitoring’ energy markets, ‘ready’ to take necessary measures, including poss oil stockpile release.
Younger, reportedly more ‘hardline’ Ayatollah takes command as regime stability continues: Military and political elites have pledged allegiance to Mojtaba Khamenei, who replaces his slain father as supreme leader and is viewed as a figure favored by the IRGC.
Offramp, or more global shock & pain ahead? Trump after seeing oil prices: Short term oil prices, which will drop rapidly when the destruction of the Iran nuclear threat is over, is a very small price to pay for U.S.A., and World, ONLY FOOLS WOULD THINK DIFFERENTLY!
Threat of whole regional war ongoing: Turkey says second Iranian ballistic missile shot down by NATO defenses in airspace, but then NATO quickly contradicts – saying no 2nd missile was intercepted.
Nation-building, nation-smashing, divergent US-Israeli aims? More from Trump“…will work tirelessly to bring Iran back from the brink of destruction, making it economically bigger, better, and stronger than ever before.” But US officials distance themselves from big weekend attacks on Iranian oil.
Iran shuts door on ceasefire talk possibility, accuses US of seeking ‘partition’: as several countries have begun mediation efforts; however Foreign Ministry says: “While military aggression continues, there is little room to talk about anything other than a decisive response.”
CENTCOM confirms 8th US troop death; More Iranian missile/drone hits on Gulf sites, IDF ground operations expand inside Lebanon
* * *
Update(1545ET): President Trump just told CBS News that he believes the US-Israeli war with Iran is “very far ahead of schedule” and so it could be over soon. Considering this whole thing started with talk of a mere four day timeline, then quickly morphed to four or five weeks, before Hegseth declared eight weeks would be needed… is this the White House preparing for a quick draw down and off ramp? Here’s what Trump told CBS by phone:
“I think the war is very complete, pretty much,” he said. “They have no navy, no communications, they’ve got no air force. Their missiles are down to a scatter. Their drones are being blown up all over the place, including their manufacturing of drones. If you look, they have nothing left. There’s nothing left in a military sense.”
Oil rapidly dropped… down 30% from overnight highs:
Offramp brewing? Notice below there’s now no mention of removing the regime, and especially important is no mention of destroying the Iranian nuclear program. Additionally, no mention of destroying Iran’s ability to project power via proxy forces.
SECRETARY RUBIO: The goals of the mission against the Iranian regime are clear:
– Destroy their ability to launch missiles
– Destroy factories making these missiles
– Destroy their navy pic.twitter.com/KPUpMGNtDf
Update(1240ET): Iran on Monday is seeking to showcase its continuity and ‘stability’ of government after a week of heavy US-Israeli bombardment failed to produce regime change. Instead, Tehran is vowing to fight back, saying it can keep the war going for as long as needed. Analysts have pointed out Iran needs to inflict a cost on the US and Israel, fearing it will just be attacked again somewhere down the line, even if years from now.
And yet, Trump admin officials have been signaling the American public there won’t be a protracted war. But on this big looming question, The Wall Street Journal is out Monday with the following ominous headline suggesting a lengthy conflict ahead: Iran Signals a Fight to the End With Appointment of Khamenei’s Son…
The elevation of Mojtaba Khamenei, a conservative long close to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, shows that Trump’s efforts so far to cow the regime into surrender have failed. It also appears to have put hard-liners in firm control of the country, with moderate and reformist factions long marginalized. The 56-year old Khamenei is expected to take a confrontational stance toward the West.
His appointment also shows that Iran won’t acquiesce to Trump’s demand that he approve the country’s new top cleric. Trump told Axios last week that “Khamenei’s son is unacceptable to me.”
The younger Khamenei’s ascendance “suggests the continuation of the same old strategy: repression at home and resistance internationally,” said Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa program at Chatham House.
There remains the question of if US and Israeli goals and objectives are truly aligned on the Iran war. Some of Trump’s latest remarks are cause for concern, and highlight the aforementioned question: “Iran was going to destroy Israel and everything else around it. We’ve worked together. We’ve destroyed a country that wanted to destroy Israel,” Trump asserted.
The President indicated that he would keep the ultimate prerogative but while consulting directly with Netanyahu. “I think it’s mutual, a little bit. We’ve been talking. I’ll make a decision at the right time, but everything’s going to be taken into account.” Some admin officials are likely looking for a quick exit ramp, which would probably involve a politically expedient moment to declare ‘victory’ and get out. But will the Israelis cooperate when/if that moment comes?
Some establishment thinktanks in the US are meanwhile taking note that the administration is struggling with an exit strategy. For example, via the NY-based Soufan Center:
Yet, experts and global officials are quick to point out that all layers of Iran’s existing power structure oppose U.S. influence in Iran and the broader region. Regime officials differ only by degree, and the opportunities to mimic the transition achieved in Venezuela are narrow. When addressing reports last week that Mojtaba Khamenei, the newly announced Supreme Leader, was favored to succeed his father, Trump said the pick would be “unacceptable.” Axios quoted him as saying: “We want someone that will bring harmony and peace to Iran…They are wasting their time. Khamenei’s son is a lightweight. I have to be involved in the appointment, like with Delcy [Rodríguez] in Venezuela.”
Iran’s military and political leadership has reportedly pledged allegiance to Mojtaba Khamenei, who as we reported was named Sunday to replace his slain father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, as the country’s new supreme leader. The relatively young 56-year old is not some Delcy Rodriguez character, as he’s a military veteran of the eight year Iran-Iraq war and saw his wife Zahra killed in an Israeli airstrike. He’s said to be the favored IRGC choice and more hardline than his father Ali Khamenei.
The United States and Israel continue to unleash their mass bombing campaign across Iran, with explosions reported in Qom and Tehran hours after weekend Israeli strikes on oil facilities sent toxic smoke and even oil-infused rain across the Iranian capital. There’s been emerging reports suggesting there’s been some divergence or even distance on war aims and strategy between the US and Israel; however, this could also simply be war propaganda put out by officials – and yet probably President Trump doesn’t like to see oil go up in flames.
Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei of course has a different theory. He said in a fresh statement that the attacks aim “at partitioning our country to take illegal possession of our oil riches.” He likely has Syria in mind, which Iran propped up on support of Assad for over a decade, but which has been permanently fractured, weakened, and a once significant Russian-supplied anti-air defense and missile arsenal utterly destroyed. The Syria model is something Israeli policy makers have talked about for decades, and Israel appears to be willing to smash an entire Iranian nation of 90+ million.
With this in mind, Baghaei emphasized there’s no halting the fight at this stage: “While military aggression continues, there is little room to talk about anything other than a decisive response,” he said Monday. Trump recently said operations won’t cease until there’s “unconditional surrender” by Iran.
Despite the massive scale of Israeli and American firepower, the strikes clearly have not dismantled the regime’s core structures, arranged precisely to endure such external shocks and maintain power. There’s also not yet been any clear examples of elite fractures.
“We’re not seeing it, and we’re unlikely to see it,” Alan Eyre, a Farsi-speaking former diplomat who served on the U.S. nuclear negotiating team with Iran, told The Wall Street Journal. “The IRGC and other elites benefit the most from the status quo and would rather fight than switch.”
The same publication reviews that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, created in 1979 to safeguard the Islamic revolutionary system, includes about 190,000 active-duty troops. It is the most elite core defense perimeter running the war and reports directly to the Supreme Leader, even bypassing Iran’s conventional armed forces. In addition to this, there’s a sort of domestic IRGC internal security force over the country – roughly 600,000 irregular Basij militia members which can mobilize.
Day 9: Iran war is wider and longer:
— new, harder line leader in Iran
— new leader promises “new phase”
— 130+ drones by Iran last 24 hours
— US talking “limited” ground forces
—desalination hit in Bahrain
— oil $102, 4 yr high
— Americans disapprove, 59% v 41%
— Russian… pic.twitter.com/NaL8yvzEtr
At a moment oil prices have surged more than 25% to kick off the week, their highest levels since mid-2022 as some major producers cut supplies and fears of prolonged shipping disruptions spread through global markets due to the expanding war – Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Sunday that Tehran would only contemplate a ceasefire for a permanent end to the war on its terms.
He reminded the West that Iran did accept a ceasefire which ended the 12-war in June. Of course, Iran is currently trying to inflict as much pain as possible on the US and Israel before such a potential end – also as Israel continues to experience rare severe damage to its cities, bases and infrastructure from ongoing ballistic missile attacks. On the question of an offramp, below are a couple of unconfirmed developments and headlines:
—Iran are seeking peace talks with the US with Qatar, Oman & Italy involved in mediation: CNN/News18
—Israeli Defense Officials Start to Ask How the Iran War Ends: WAPO (“A few senior officials in Israel are starting to voice concern about the escalating, open-ended attack on Iran – and suggesting possible exit ramps that might halt the war before it further damages the region and the global economy.”)
The Foreign Ministry’s Baghaei has further addressed President Trump’s ultra-provocative suggestion that Iran’s borders could change. Asked last week whether Iran’s map would look the same after the war, Trump said, “That I can’t tell you. Probably not.”
Baghaei blasted Trump for treating the world like a real estate deal: “The US president and others have made statements about many parts of the world – from Canada to other countries – as if the entire planet were prime real estate and governments were merely real estate agencies,” the FM spokesman said. “For the people of Iran, the map of the country represents everything that every Iranian is proud of and is willing to sacrifice their life to protect.”
As for ‘sacrifice’ – but on the US side of things, an eighth American soldier has now been confirmed killed, one day after Trump oversaw a dignified transfer ceremony at Dover Air Force Base. Interestingly Fox News has come under fire for its mishandling of the coverage.
Trump after seeing oil prices:
Short term oil prices, which will drop rapidly when the destruction of the Iran nuclear threat is over, is a very small price to pay for U.S.A., and World,
In the Gulf, Saudi Arabia has accused Iran of continuing attacks against the kingdom due to “baseless claims” – including allegations that fighter jets and refueling aircraft stationed in Saudi Arabia were preparing to join the war. This after on Saturday Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian apologized to Arab Gulf states and said Tehran would stop striking neighboring countries unless attacks on Iran originated from their territory; however, those attacks have not actually appeared to stop – as the consensus is that the elite IRGC is in charge, and there’s likely even autonomy of command decisions with units under emergency war orders.
Saudi Arabia’s Foreign Ministry said Monday of Pezeshkian’s ‘apology’ that Iran “has not reflected that statement in practice.” It laid out that Iran has “continued its attacks based on baseless claims that are not grounded in fact, including allegations that the Kingdom had previously clarified were false, namely the claim that fighter jets and refueling aircraft had departed from the Kingdom to participate in the war.”
⚡️Bahrain:The moment the fire broke out in the fuel tanks of BAPCO Energy Company after it was targeted by a swarm of Iranian drones. pic.twitter.com/wHh8aCxkxt
Saudi officials have said its aircraft patrols were purely defensive. “The continued Iranian attacks represent further escalation, with significant implications for bilateral relations both now and in the future,” the ministry said.
Elsewhere in the Gulf, thick smoke has been seen rising from the direction of the Bapco oil refinery in Bahrain, according to a witness cited in Al Jazeera and other reports. Bahrain reported that an Iranian drone strike on the island of Sitra, whihc injured 32 people overnight. Gulf states continue generally reporting new strikes as Iran carries out retaliatory attacks across the region – after Tehran’s own oil and fuel storage sites have been blown up in major weekend attacks.
Israel’s ‘second front’ in Lebanon also continues to escalate, as multiple Israeli airstrikes struck the southern suburbs of Beirut on Monday, including at least one targeting Al-Qard Al-Hassan, which is a financial institution linked to Hezbollah, according to Lebanon’s National News Agency.
Hezbollah said Monday that it is busy fighting Israeli forces that landed in eastern Lebanon by helicopter across the Syrian border, the second such operation since the start of the latest conflict with Israel. There’s already a ground war ongoing in southern Lebanon. Hezbollah described said it detected “the infiltration of approximately 15 Israeli enemy helicopters” from the Syrian side of the border in eastern Lebanon, an area long under Hezbollah influence.
Meanwhile, US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner reportedly plan to travel to Israel on Tuesday to meet Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, according to Axios reporter Barak Ravid, who is seen as close to the Israeli government. The trip hasn’t been officially confirmed, however.
Footage from northeast Tehran, oil and energy sites continue to burn:
As for ‘what’s next’ – escalation or offramp… the following from Bloomberg suggests there could be a gateway to ground troops if things take an escalatory war path: “Trump is weighing the option of deploying special forces on the ground to seize Iran’s near bomb-grade uranium, according to diplomats. He told the Times of Israel that a decision on when to end the war will also involve Benjamin Netanyahu,” Bloomberg reviews of prior weekend reporting.
This as there are claims that Washington and Tel Aviv don’t see eye to eye on ultimate war aims and strategy: “Israel’s strikes on 30 Iranian fuel depots Saturday went far beyond what the U.S. expected when Israel notified it in advance, sparking the first significant disagreement between the allies since the war began eight days ago, according to a U.S. official, Israeli official and a source with knowledge.” But all of this fresh reporting of ‘distance’ between the close allies who are executing Trump’s Operation Epic Fury could by design be meant to create artificial distance between the president and what might prove to be an unpopular war.
Rep. Eric Swalwell has long maintained his primary residence in Washington, D.C., despite representing large portions of California in Congress. Now that he is running for California governor, his apparent on-paper-only California residency is under scrutiny – even from fellow Democrats.
Tom Steyer, a left-wing billionaire donor who is also running for the Democratic nomination for governor, called on California Secretary of State Shirley Weber to enforce the state’s residency requirements.
Steyer’s campaign wrote to Shirley that Swalwell “appears to live in California on paper only” and is “unlikely to meet the basic residency requirements to run for Governor.”
In a 55-page letter, Steyer’s attorneys argued that Swalwell has repeatedly failed to list a home address in campaign documents.
For instance, Swalwell listed a law firm’s address in Sacramento as his address on a Candidate Intention Statement.
Swalwell also designated his Eckington address in Washington, D.C., at 209 S Street NE as his principal residence in a deed of trust.
Instead, Swalwell lists a California address on his voter registration form, but deed records do not show that he actually owns the property.
The letter argued that “public records databases do not indicate Swalwell is a resident at that address.”
The home is owned by a relative of Swalwell’s former deputy chief of staff and longtime mentor, Tim Sbranti.
When Swalwell is in California, he stays in San Francisco hotels, according to campaign finance records.
Steyer’s letter is not the first time Swalwell has faced accusations that he does not actually reside in California. In January, Swalwell was sued over his D.C. residency, with the lawsuit alleging that he does not live in the state and is unqualified to run for governor.
“Tom Steyer has sunk to a new low, peddling far-right MAGA conspiracy theorist Joel Gilbert’s tired talking points. Gilbert is a quack who has published that Bruce Lee is alive and Paul McCartney is dead,” a spokesperson for Swalwell’s campaign said in remarks to Politico.
“Billionaire Steyer is personally going after a public servant who has long rented in his East Bay Congressional district. California’s renters don’t need to be shamed by an out-of-touch billionaire,” the campaign added.
In a statement, the California Secretary of State’s office said candidates will only appear on the ballot “if they meet the candidate qualifications and requirements outlined in the 2026 California Election Guide.”
