FBI Investigating Suspected Cyber Attack On Sensitive Surveillance Network
The FBI is scrambling to investigate a suspected cybersecurity incident involving a sensitive internal network used to manage court-ordered wiretaps and foreign-intelligence surveillance warrants, according to CNN.
The bureau confirmed the activity in a brief statement, saying that it had “identified and addressed suspicious activities on FBI networks” and deployed its full technical resources in response.
And of course, the timing couldn’t be more interesting, as the incident comes amid heightened vigilance for retaliatory cyberattacks following the joint U.S.-Israeli military operation, dubbed Operation Epic Fury, which targeted Iranian nuclear, missile and command infrastructure and resulted in the killing of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The strikes have triggered regional escalation, including Iranian counterstrikes and proxy activity in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
U.S. intelligence assessments, including a Department of Homeland Security bulletin, indicate that while large-scale physical attacks on U.S. soil remain improbable, Iran-aligned hacktivists and potentially state-linked actors are likely to pursue lower-level disruptive actions. Such attacks could include distributed denial-of-service instructions, website defacements and other intrusions aimed at causing nuisance or temporary disruption.
“Although a large-scale physical attack is unlikely, Iran and its proxies probably pose a persistent threat of targeted attacks in the Homeland, and will almost certainly escalate retaliatory actions – or calls to action – if reports of the Ayatollah’s death are confirmed,” according to the bulletin obtained by ABC News.
“In the short-term, we are most concerned that Iran-aligned hacktivists will conduct low-level cyber attacks against US networks, such as website defacements and distributed denial-of-service attacks,” officials said in the bulletin.
Major banks and other institutions have intensified monitoring and fortified defenses in recent days. However, no significant breaches directly attributed to the current phase of hostilities have been publicly confirmed.
Speaking to investors this week, JPMorganChase CEO Jamie Dimon said that while he endorsed the U.S.-Israeli strikes as a necessary response to longstanding threats from Tehran but cautioned about the asymmetric risks ahead, including cyber attacks on major financial institutions.
“They can’t match us militarily, so they’ll hit where it hurts – our networks, our operations, our customers,” Dimon added.
“We always try to prepare for that,” the top Wall Street banker said, underscoring that he considers cyber attacks “one of the highest risks banks bear.”
Gasoline consumption in the US, in terms of product supplied to gas stations, declined by about 1% in 2025, to 8.91 million barrels per day, according to EIA data, below where consumption had first been in 2003, even though the US population increased by 52 million people, or by 18%, over the same period.
Compared to the peak in 2018,gasoline consumption in 2025 fell by 4.5%. Compared to the prior peak in 2007, gasoline consumption is down 4.1%.
Gasoline consumption is increased by miles driven – which inched up to a record – and is slowed by the improving efficiency of gasoline-powered vehicles and the growing share of EVs.
The effects of the two Oil Shocks in the 1970s on gasoline consumption was dramatic. High gasoline prices and a recession led to fewer miles driven, but it also unleashed efforts by US automakers to make and sell smaller, more fuel-efficient vehicles. And the small fuel-efficient Japanese models became immensely popular. This wave of smaller and more fuel-efficient vehicles held down gasoline consumption, and it didn’t surpass its 1978 high until 1993, though the population grew by 18% over those 16 years.
Per-capita gasoline consumption fell to 32.8 gallons per month in 2025, the lowest since 1967, except for the Covid year 2020, as a result of declining overall gasoline consumption amid a growing population.
This dynamic illustrates the structural decline in demand for gasoline.
Miles driven edged up 0.9% in 2025, to a record of 3,324 billion miles, according to data from the Department of Transportation (includes miles driven by cars, light trucks, buses, motorcycles, delivery vans, and commercial trucks). But that’s only 9.7% higher than at the prior peak in 2007.
That gasoline consumption declines even as miles driven increases attests to the impact of more fuel-efficient ICE vehicles and more EVs in the vehicle mix.
But people drive a little less: Miles driven per person residing in the US, at 9,710 miles in 2025, was 3.1% below the peak in 2004.
And average fuel economy keeps improving: that has been a big part of the long-term structural demand issue for gasoline.
Over the past 25 years, the average fuel economy of all passenger vehicles sold in the US rose by 43%, to a record of 28.1 “real world” MPG for the 2025 model year, according to preliminary data from the EPA last month.
Note the spike in average fuel economy coming out of the Oil Shocks, as compact Japanese vehicles made huge inroads, and as US automakers began offering smaller vehicles with better mileage.
Exports of gasoline have become an outlet for refiners.
Crude oil production in the US has surged by 172% since 2008, to a record 13.6 million barrels per day (MMb/d) in 2025, according to EIA data. Over the years, exports of crude oil and petroleum products (diesel, gasoline, jet fuel, petroleum coke, and many others) have soared, and imports have fallen. In 2020, the US became a net exporter of crude oil and petroleum products, exporting more than importing. In 2025, net exports of crude oil and petroleum products rose to a record 2.8 MMb/d (detailed analysis and charts here).
Gasoline exports have become a big profitable trade for US refiners, and an outlet to replace falling demand at home. Many refiners import crude oil and export value-added products, such as gasoline, including refineries in California which face steeply dropping gasoline demand amid the rapidly growing prevalence of EVs and hybrids in the state.
For example, the US had a trade surplus of 590,000 barrels per day in crude oil and petroleum products with Mexico in 2025, importing 500,000 barrels a day of crude oil and exporting 1.1 MMb/d in value-added petroleum products, largely diesel and gasoline.
Gasoline exports started soaring in 2008, surpassed 700,000 barrels per day for the first time in 2017, hit 879,000 barrels per day in 2018, and have stayed in that range since then. In 2025, gasoline exports edged up to 804,000 barrels per day.
Dems To Keep Blocking DHS Funds Despite Noem Firing
On Thursday, President Donald Trump fired Department of Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem and tapped Sen. Markwayne Mullin of Oklahoma as her replacement, marking the first administration shake-up of Trump’s second term. Democrats had been demanding her ouster for months, but they’ve made it quite clear that the move changed nothing in their eyes, and the standoff over DHS funding continues.
The DHS partial shutdown – now stretching into its third week – was already the product of Democratic demands for sweeping restrictions on Immigration and Customs Enforcement and Customs and Border Protection. Those demands didn’t soften with the personnel change. They hardened.
“A change in personnel is not sufficient,” House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries told reporters. “We need a change in policy.”
Jeffries added, “It’s not like Kristi Noem was involved in negotiating anything. She was a corrupt lackey. So we’re dealing with the White House and we’re going to continue to deal with the White House at this point.”
Senate Minority Leader Charles E. Schumer made it clear he’s not interested in administrative adjustments or good-faith assurances. He wants legislation that fundamentally changes how immigration law is enforced. “We have to change them by legislation because I don’t trust any one person being in charge of this agency as long as Trump is president, given the policies he’s espoused, given how ICE has been structured,” Schumer insisted. And then, with the rhetorical flourish of a man who has already made up his mind: “The rot is deep.”
Sen. Christopher S. Murphy of Connecticut, the ranking Democrat on the Senate Homeland Security Appropriations Subcommittee, was equally unmoved. “Changing the name plate on the door doesn’t change the fact that they are committed to using DHS to terrorize communities and migrants in this country,” Murphy said.
Despite Democrats being the ones holding up funding, Schumer then blamed Republicans for the ongoing impasse. “They’ve been stonewalling us on the most important issues, and those have to change, and they have to change them,” he told reporters.
However, Senate Majority Leader John Thune disputes Schumer’s characterization. “Senate Democrats are not engaging,” he said. “And furthermore, I would say, beyond not engaging, they are just flat rejecting any chance to sit down and actually talk about it. And that seems to be coming from the top.” Thune then made his second attempt in as many months to bring a House-passed DHS funding bill to the Senate floor, fully anticipating Democrats would block it again. They did. The procedural vote came in at 51-45 — nine short of the 60 needed to advance.
The impasse began in January, when anti-ICE protestors assaulted federal agents in Minnesota, resulting in their deaths. Renee Good attempted to run over an ICE agent with her vehicle, prompting the agent to fatally shoot her. Weeks later, Alex Pretti assaulted Border Patrol agents while armed with a loaded gun and was shot in the process of attacking the agents.
Democrats used the incident to push for a package loaded with ridiculous restrictions that would have put agents at risk and severely hampered their ability to enforce the law. Among other provisions, their requested rules included banning agents from wearing masks, requiring judicial warrants for entry onto private property, mandating identification and body cameras, and prohibiting enforcement near schools, churches, hospitals, and polling places.
But, Republicans pointed out that unmasking agents exposes them to doxing and harassment, and that a blanket warrant requirement would drown the courts — effectively neutering the administration’s immigration agenda.
One area of agreement was on body cameras. Yet, Democrats later backtracked on that demand.
Meanwhile, the shutdown’s collateral damage is becoming harder to ignore. ICE and CBP have kept their lights on, covered by the $75 billion Congress funneled to immigration enforcement through last summer’s budget reconciliation law. But TSA, FEMA, the Coast Guard, and the Secret Service have no such backstop and are beginning to feel the financial squeeze.
Mullin is set to take over on March 31, pending Senate confirmation. Whether he can unlock a deal to end the standoff remains entirely unclear, but so far it looks unlikely.
Two of Minnesota’s top officials, Gov. Tim Walz and Attorney General Keith Ellison, testified before Congress for more than four hours on March 4 about their state’s multibillion-dollar fraud controversies.
During the latest hearing on Capitol Hill, Republicans tried to pin down when the two Democratic leaders were alerted to the fraud, why payments continued afterward, and what role politics may have played.
Rep. James Comer (R-Ky.) summed up the scandal this way: “While whistleblowers were silenced, fraudsters got rich.” Comer chairs the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform, which has now held two hearings on Minnesota fraud cases this year.
🚨 JUST IN: House Oversight Chair James Comer affirms whistleblowers testified UNDER OATH that they spent YEARS warning Tim Walz and Keith Ellison about rampant fraud
Although Democrat members of the committee agreed with Republicans’ demand to hold fraudsters accountable, some Democrats pivoted away from the issue of fraud. They said the committee ought to instead focus on U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement actions in Minnesota, where confrontations twice turned deadly in January.
Here are four takeaways.
Payments ‘Kept Flowing’ After Fraud Alarms
Walz has said that his administration acted quickly, but Comer said that claim “does not hold up to the facts.”
Even after fraud was “known, documented, and repeatedly brought to the attention of state leadership,” state employees “kept payments flowing,” Comer said.
Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Fla.) said the committee’s investigation found that state agency leaders directly notified Walz’s chief of staff by May 2020 about concerns regarding Feeding Our Future, a nonprofit organization that was paid to provide meals to children.
Its payments skyrocketed from $307,000 in 2018, a year before Walz took office, to nearly $200 million by 2021, Donalds said—despite the fraud alarms.
Authorities say the organization stole nearly $300 million; dozens of people, mostly Somalis, have faced related federal charges since 2022.
Several Republicans noted that Somalis overwhelmingly vote for Democrats and accused Democrats in Minnesota of turning a blind eye to retain that political support. Walz denied that accusation.300
Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) confronted Walz for publicly stating that payments to Feeding Our Future restarted under a court order.
Ramsey County District Court Judge John H. Guthmann said he never issued any such order, according to a 2022 statement from the judge.
Jordan asked Walz, “Why didn’t you tell the truth?”
The governor responded, “The agency believed that the court had required them to make those payments.”
Tim Walz was exposed for resuming taxpayer payments to Somali fraudsters at Feeding Our Future and lying about it. During questioning, Rep. Jim Jordan challenged Walz on why he restarted the payments despite the court never ordering it, forcing Walz to deflect and claim he was… pic.twitter.com/KsOUv5tycc
Republicans also cited significant Walz-era increases in funding for other programs in which fraud was uncovered, related to autism therapy, child care, and a housing-affordability program.
Walz said he was aware of systemic fraud allegations before he took office and that he took steps to address them.
However, he said that Minnesota is “not going to shut down programs” that are otherwise worth it.
Repeatedly, the governor denounced fraud, saying, “One dollar is too much.”
Whistleblower Retaliation Alleged and Denied
Rep. Tim Burchett (R-Tenn.) told Walz, “Almost 30 whistleblowers accused you and your administration of retaliation.”
Walz responded: “I can tell you it didn’t happen. … There’s a zero tolerance for whistleblower retaliation in Minnesota.”
Rep. Brandon Gill (R-Texas) pointed to the case of a state employee—a lifelong Democrat—who “was called ‘racist’ and her work responsibilities were diminished” after she blew the whistle on fraud. Many whistleblowers have reported being called “racist” or “Islamophobic” for pointing out fraud allegations against Somalis, who are predominantly black Muslims.
In response, Walz said that Minnesota offers “very strong whistleblower protections.” He also said it is illegal to retaliate against whistleblowers or intimidate them.
Gill replied, “Your administration has treated whistleblowers like absolute dirt, and that’s a big reason why we’ve seen so much of our hard-earned tax dollars defrauded.”
Burchett also named some specific organizations that were never prosecuted.
“Every dad-gum one of you all ought to step down,” Burchett said.
Other Republicans also called for resignations from Walz and Ellison.
‘Compassion Over Compliance’
Rep. William Timmons (R-S.C.) raised concerns about former and current Minnesota welfare agency employees’ statements that they were told to emphasize “compassion over compliance” when dealing with recipients of government aid.
Documents back up statements showing that employees were told that they should behave based on a “mindset” of 70 percent compassion, 30 percent compliance, Timmons said.
“After acknowledging how widespread and pervasive fraud is in Minnesota, how should your state employees prioritize program compliance? What is your message to people now relative to this compassion–compliance ratio?” Timmons asked.
Walz said he agreed with Timmons.
“It’s not an either-or, and it’s not a percentage,” the governor said.
“We’re not going to stop these programs … [but] we need to have fraud prevention and program integrity.”
Walz, Ellison Defend Record
Walz, in a written statement, said, “In Minnesota, if you defraud public programs, if you steal taxpayer money, we will find you, we will prosecute you, we will convict you, and we will throw you in jail.”
He acknowledged that the governor has an important role in fighting fraud and that “the buck ultimately stops” with him.
“I do not shy away from that responsibility, and I am prepared—as I have always been—to have a serious conversation with our federal partners about how to ensure fraudsters cannot take advantage of Minnesota taxpayers,” Walz wrote.
Tim Walz is getting FLUSTERED, PANICKING after he was exposed lying about covering up for Somali fraud
WALZ: “Our Medicare error late is lower than your rate!!”
JAMES COMER: “You have been defrauded! You have not been good stewards of the taxpayer dollars. And the Democrat… pic.twitter.com/NkzpqRbYPz
Walz also told Rep. Glenn Grothman (R-Wis.) that he would like to hear specifics on how Wisconsin tackled its “improper payments” problem under former Gov. Scott Walker, also a Republican.
During the hearing, Walz and other Democrats alleged that President Donald Trump and his Republican administration have targeted Minnesota fraud and immigration enforcement for political reasons.
Republicans said immigration is intertwined with many other problems, including election fraud and welfare-program fraud.
Ellison testified that his office can prosecute only Medicaid fraud on its own; federal prosecutors are responsible for other types of fraud cases.
In his written statement, he said his office has “worked tirelessly to hold fraudsters accountable.”
He touted winning 300 Medicaid-fraud convictions and recovering $80 million in judgments and restitution. His office also has “dissolved 17 sham non-profits involved in federal child nutrition fraud” since 2019, Ellison wrote.
“We Have An Emergency”: Newsom’s Climate Obsession Could Wreak Havoc California’s Oil Industry
The oil-and-gas industry is sounding the alarm over a tightening of California’s cap-and-invest program, warning that stricter emissions caps could drive up gasoline prices and jeopardize the viability of in-state refining.
The California Air Resources Board is advancing amendments to the cap-and-invest framework, a market-based mechanism requiring major emitters to purchase allowances for greenhouse-gas emissions, that would significantly reduce the supply of available credits and accelerate reduction targets through 2030, according to the New York Post. The program, extended through 2045 last year, generates revenue through quarterly auctions that has helped fund state priorities, including the beleaguered high-speed rail initiative.
Andy Walz, president of Chevron’s downstream, midstream and chemicals division, told KCRA in an interview this week that the forthcoming board vote on the changes could impose billions in additional costs on fuel producers.
“If they add this burden … it’s not whether refineries will close, it’s when,” the executive said.
Walz pointed to heightened geopolitical risks, including the spiraling U.S.-Iran war, as a reason to pump the brakes on reductions in domestic production capacity.
“That makes no sense when you look at global tensions right now,” Walz said.
Walz described the situation as an “emergency” for the state and highlighted potential national-security implications, noting California hosts 32 U.S. military bases that depend on reliable local fuel supply.
“It’s important to national security to have the fuel those facilities need,” he said. “This isn’t just a California issue.”
A study by Capitol Matrix Consulting estimatesthe proposal could saddle California refineries with $5.5 billion to $9 billion in added costs over the next decade, a burden that could erase much or all of their projected earnings in some cases.
Projections from industry sources, including Chevron, indicate the amendments could add more than $1 a gallon to gasoline prices by 2030, with the company specifically estimating an increase of $1.21 per gallon if allowance prices reach projected ceilings around $135. California pump prices already average about $1.54 above the national level, according to the Wall Street Journal.
Yet, Newsom has shown little concern about higher costs at the pump for California voters. Instead, the potential 2028 Democrat presidential contender has framed the state’s climate policies largely in opposition to President Donald Trump.
“We’re doubling down on our best tool to combat Trump’s assaults on clean air — Cap-and-Invest — by making polluters pay for projects that support our most impacted communities,” Newsom said in September.
Just over a year ago, President Trump issued two executive orders banning destructive diversity ideology (a.k.a. “DEI” or “diversity, equity, and inclusion”) from the federal government and its contractors, including colleges and universities. The EOs sought to restore merit as the basis of hiring, advancement, and college admissions.
Both EOs reinforced prior actions by the president as well as by the Supreme Court: In his first term, Trump signed EO 13950, Combatting Race and Sex Stereotypes, which banned divisive concepts based on race and ethnicity, a measure duplicated in many states; and in June of 2023, the Supreme Court decided Students for Fair Admission v. Harvard (“SFFA”), which found that diversity rationales for racial preferences in admissions were themselves discriminatory and therefore unlawful.
Notwithstanding these major legal developments against DEI, colleges and universities, especially in Virginia, are continuing business as usual to promote it, albeit under different names, a move known as rebranding. “To avoid scrutiny,” said one official at the University of Virginia, diversity offices are now called offices for “community and belonging,” while “queer brunch” is now marketed as “cozy brunch.” At George Mason University, the DEI office is now called the Office for Access, Compliance, and Community—same staff, same stuff. They do this even though Trump’s EO explicitly banned rebranding, stating such programs are illegal “under whatever name they appear.”
Obviously, bad actor schools are engaged in bad faith noncompliance.
In this 250th anniversary year of America’s founding, we should remember that the word “diversity“ is absent from our foundational documents: it does not appear in either the Declaration of Independence or in our Constitution.
How, then, did “diversity” become so ubiquitous—in education, government, and corporate America—and what does it really mean?
“Diversity” is in fact a top-down, divide-and-conquer strategy pitting Americans against each other based on race, ethnicity, and sex (and now including “gender” and gender ideology). It distracts from—and detracts from—talent and excellence, actually encouraging racial discord as everyone must have skin color or race in mind, rather than achievement or moral character. Accordingly, it destroys nations. Only corrupt politicians, owned and controlled by anti-American handlers, could parrot the lie that “Diversity is our strength.”
Many date the debut of diversity ideology from the 1978 Supreme Court case, Regents of the University of California v. Bakke, where the medical school of the University of California at Davis had a special admissions program reserving 16 of its 100 open spots for minorities, often with lesser qualifications than white applicants, such as complainant Allan Bakke. Supreme Court Justice Lewis Powell announced in this opinion that “diversity” was a legitimate governmental interest. But he and the other justices rejected the medical school’s rigid quotas to get there—insisting, instead, that race should be one of many different criteria for admission even while stating that “racial and ethnic considerations are inherently suspect” under the Constitution.
These ambiguities guaranteed more fights about the role of race in college admissions and elsewhere.
In 2003, the Court made matters worse in Grutter v. Bollinger, where Justice Sandra Day O’Connor elevated “diversity” from a permissible state interest to a compelling one, finding that the University of Michigan law school’s racial preferences in admissions were lawful, provided they were tailored and individualized.
Historically, “compelling state interests” concerned public safety, national security, or the protection of minor children. With no history, tradition, or textual basis to do so, the Grutter Court not only shoved diversity onto this list but also put it above a citizen’s right to equal protection of the law guaranteed by the Constitution’s Fourteenth Amendment. For this reason, many called the decision illegitimate. In practice, this case was the official government stamp of approval for discrimination against Christian, heterosexual men of European descent, as they are the only demographic said not to contribute to diversity.
In short order, campus bureaucracies, federal programs, and corporate trainings trumpeted DEI—often barely defined. Now, however, documents show that employers such as Amazon benefit from “diversity,” but employees decidedly do not: a divided workforce helps prevent unions as well as other forms of protection for workers’ rights. Similarly, campus administrators with few real or marketable skills no doubt also benefit from DEI, while serious students decidedly do not: university bureaucrats in DEI “BS Jobs” are paid handsomely with unprecedented student loan amounts. Graduates get the debt; campus bureaucrats get the paychecks.
Thankfully, the high Court corrected itself in the 2023 Students for Fair Admissions v. Harvard, a case where DEI was rejected and its rationales found to be incompatible with the equal protection of laws. Chief Justice John Roberts explained that DEI itself presumes that skin color or ethnic background results in a “characteristic viewpoint,” a form of racial stereotyping forbidden by civil rights guarantees. Diversity ideology is also incoherent and incapable of judicial review. (Transsexuals now add diversity? Perhaps pedophiles will too?) If race is a plus for some, he pointed out, it is necessarily a minus for others—which is to say, even individualized approaches result in illegal racial discrimination. Finding racial preferences in college admissions unlawful, Roberts went on to broaden the holding, saying, “Eliminating racial discrimination means eliminating all of it.”
It is in this context that President Trump’s January 2025 executive orders were issued. The administration is following up on the Supreme Court’s landmark SFFA decision, a case that took years for the courts to decide and which corrected the destructive Grutter opinion.
It is also the context in which colleges and universities are brazenly flouting the law.
The actions of Trump and the Supreme Court have prompted Offices for Civil Rights at both the Justice and Education Departments to launch investigations into a number of colleges and universities, including in Virginia; a federal appeals court recently upheld the administration’s actions. Resolution agreements have been reached in some instances. And that is all to the good.
But the record shows that schools do not operate in good faith. That means that agreements on paper must be enforced, checked, and double-checked to have real effect in practice.
Let’s hope that will also happen—with special attention paid to bad faith rebranding.
* * *
Teresa R. Manning is Policy Director at the National Association of Scholars, President of the Virginia Association of Scholars, and a former law professor at Virginia’s Scalia Law School, George Mason University.
Mills: Trump Admin “Reveling In The Carnage” As Tehran Burns
Last night, Bret Weinstein joined ZeroHedge to moderate a debate on the Iran war featuring Curt Mills, executive director of The American Conservative (magazine founded by Pat Buchanan), and Max Abrahms, Northeastern University professor and terrorism expert.
The discussion went far and wide. From Chabad to whether the war has strengthened Iranian hardliners to the question of Israeli influence over U.S. policy to how this war affects Russia-Ukraine.
Below are some of the most notable exchanges for those who missed it:
Can Trump Wrangle Israel?
Abrahms argued that claims Israel dictates U.S. policy ignore numerous cases where Washington has acted against Israeli preferences. He pointed to the influence of Tom Barrack, Trump’s ambassador to Turkey who is “absolutely reviled by many Israelis,” and policies such as ending sanctions on Syria, inviting the new Syrian president to the White House, and cultivating close ties with Qatar, Pakistan, and Turkey’s Erdoğan. On Gaza, Abrahms said Donald Trump “told Netanyahu, you need to stop prosecuting this war against Hamas,” adding that even critics like Steve Bannon acknowledge Trump has been “telling [Israelis] what they can and cannot do.”
Abrahms also cited last June’s “12-day war” with Iran, saying Israel wanted to continue strikes but Trump intervened. “Israel had planes over Tehran and Trump said, ‘I don’t like this’… Literally in the skies over Tehran, the Israeli planes were sent home.”
Mills rejected the framing. “It’s an archetypal straw man.” Conceding that the administration has taken steps “certain people in Israel… don’t prefer,” Mills argued the larger objective remains unchanged: “The holy grail of the Israeli hardline and neoconservatives… has for a long time been an Iran war… and they just got it done.”
— ZeroHedge Debates (@zerohedgeDebate) March 6, 2026
Tucker And “The Jews”
Abrahms accused Tucker Carlson of blaming “the Jews” for the war, pointing to Carlson’s claim that Chabad-Lubavitch and Christian Evangelicals were at least partially behind the conflict, a theory outlined in his latest monologue.
Both Mills and Weinstein rejected that accusation. “That’s a far cry from the Jews,” Weinstein said. “There is all the difference in the world between an organization to which some people belong and many do not and the Jews, which is a large lineage.”
— ZeroHedge Debates (@zerohedgeDebate) March 6, 2026
“Crystal Meth Rumsfeld”
Mills argued that the most serious consequence is diplomatic. “I think currently the biggest macro problem actually is that the U.S.’s diplomatic word is getting crushed.” In his view, the war will “harm Trump’s ability to make a deal with the Russians to end the war in Ukraine” and “permanently scar any future president’s maneuverability and diplomacy.”
Mills questioned whether the purported strategic gains are gains at all.
“If you think the Iranians are bad dudes, they just replaced the 90-year-old Khamenei with a 58-year-old Khamenei,” he said, adding that the conflict has “further entrenched their military and economic elite, the IRGC.” At home, it’s also emboldened the worst factions, politically vindicating hardliners like Rubio, Graham, and Cotton who argue “you cannot deal with the United States… that the U.S. only responds to force.”
Rumsfeld: “I can’t tell you if the use of force in Iraq today would last five days or five weeks or five months, but it certainly isn’t gonna last any longer than that.”
Hegseth: “ It may or may not take four weeks, two weeks, six weeks. It could move up, it could move back.” pic.twitter.com/xSLEbGaniZ
Mills also directed criticism at Pete Hegseth, comparing him to “crystal meth Rumsfeld.” The rhetoric about “lethality” and a “reign of terror… over Iranian skies” suggested officials were “reveling in the carnage.”
Lastly, and possibly the worst blunder of all, the fatwa discouraging nuclear weapons came from Iran’s deceased supreme leader, and “it’s very possible they’re just going to chuck that now and lunge for a crude nuclear device.”
On Friday, day seven of the conflict, commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remained virtually nonexistent, with activity largely limited to Iranian vessels.
Unable to move crude through the waterway, JPM reminds its clients that producers have effectively shifted storage onto the sea and other facilities. Since the end of February, roughly 76 million barrels (mb) of crude have accumulated—about 46 mb on tankers, 22 mb at refiners, and 8 mb in commercial storage, or about 4.5 days of regional crude exports; most of the inventory build appears to be concentrated in Saudi Arabia.
And yet, despite disruptions around the strait, alternative export routes remain underutilized, with both Saudi Arabia and the UAE operating their bypass pipelines below available spare capacity: according to JPMorgan, roughly 1.6 mbd of spare export capacity is currently going unused.
Saudi Arabia has leaned heavily on the East–West pipeline (discussed yesterday) to bypass Hormuz and move barrels to the Red Sea. Loadings from the port of Yanbu have surged to about 2.5 mbd, up 1.8 mbd month-on-month, with an additional 1.3 mb/d flowing to refineries on the west coast.
This implies that roughly 3.8 mbd of crude is currently moving through the pipeline system, substantially below its 5 mbd nameplate capacity. The pipeline can temporarily increase its run to 6.5–7 mbd, however, logistics at Yanbu and tanker availability in the Red Sea are constraining Saudi Arabia’s ability to fully reroute Gulf exports. In the UAE, exports from the Fujairah terminal remain broadly stable, with no visible increase so far, despite the Abu Dhabi crude pipeline providing a bypass to the Strait of Hormuz with roughly 400 kbd of spare capacity.
Houthis remain a key variable. If Iran were to pursue a broader blockade effect through its regional proxies, Red Sea routes may prove less insulated than assumed.
Meanwhile, in keeping with her analysis yesterday, JPM’s Natasha Kaneva writes today that the market is shifting from pricing pure geopolitical risk to grappling with tangible operational disruption, as refinery shutdowns and export constraints begin to impair crude processing and regional supply flows. Only six days into the conflict, Iraq has already cut supply by about 1.5 mbd and Kuwait appears to be reaching tank tops. The country has reduced refinery runs by nearly 600 kbd, effectively shutting most export-oriented refining capacity and maintaining only what is needed for domestic consumption.
As explained yesterday, markets are now counting down to the next wave of shut‑ins, driven by export bottlenecks and refinery constraints. On current trajectories, disruptions of roughly 1.5 mbd could rise toward 3 mbd by week‑end; by the end of next week, cuts could exceed 4 mbd and potentially approach 6 mbd if refined‑product storage reaches capacity (Figure 8).
Kuwait is likely next to curtail upstream supply following today’s run cuts: based on current flows, JPM estimates about four days until shut‑ins begin, or up to nine days if product storage remains available. Beyond Kuwait, the first signs of supply constraints in the UAE should emerge next week.
Governments across Asia are already moving to protect domestic fuel availability.
China has instructed refiners to suspend exports of diesel and gasoline.
Japanese refiners are urging the government to consider a strategic petroleum reserve release.
Thailand has activated an emergency energy plan and temporarily halted petroleum exports to preserve domestic inventories.
The International Energy Agency has stated it stands ready to coordinate a global release from strategic stocks if disruptions persist, although for now the agency appears to be waiting to assess whether the closure of Hormuz becomes prolonged. The Trump administration has also indicated it is not yet considering tapping the US SPR to alleviate pressure on oil prices.
China—which sources about 45% of its oil via the Strait of Hormuz and accounts for roughly 28% of Persian Gulf crude transiting the strait—is also reportedly urging Iran to ensure safe passage for vessels (Figure 7).
The US has temporarily loosened sanctions against Russian oil shipments to India through April 4. Russian Urals cargoes to India are reportedly priced at a $4-5/bbl premium to Brent on a delivered basis for March-early April arrivals, reversing February’s $13/bbl discount.
The Trump administration is weighing a range of options to head off a potential energy crisis, including waivers of fuel-blending requirements and even potential US Treasury participation in oil futures markets. To reopen the Strait of Hormuz and ensure safe passage for oil tankers in the Gulf, President Trump said the US will provide insurance guarantees and naval escorts.
Still, while assurances from the US administration have helped reduce some of the risk premium in oil markets, they are unlikely on their own to restore tanker flows through the strait. The US pledges to provide insurance backstops and naval escorts will have limited impact unless Iran’s extensive disruption capabilities are first neutralized. That would require degrading Iran’s ability to threaten shipping from both the coastline and nearby islands—ranging from anti-ship missile batteries and drone launch sites to naval mines, fast-attack boats, and the command-and-control networks used by the IRGC to coordinate such operations. While US forces appear to be moving in that direction, the conditions for commercial confidence have not yet been fully established. Until they are, the oil market faces a clear asymmetry in price outcomes: prices may decline by $10 on reassuring headlines, but they could rise by $30 once Gulf production shut-ins begin to materialize and ripple through the market.
More in the full JPMorgan note available to pro subs.
Trump Ready To Continue Operations Until Iranians “Can’t Fight Any Longer”
Summary:
Trump sticking to surrender demand, freshly telling Axios, but tweaking the messaging a bit compared to earlier: “Unconditional surrender could be that [the Iranians] announce it. But it could also be when they can’t fight any longer because they don’t have anyone or anything to fight with.”
Trump’s expected timeline on Operation Epic Fury: WH Press Secretary Leavitt: “Four to six weeks.” And Leavitt further tweaks Trump’s message…ops to continue till “Iran can no longer pose a threat to the U.S. and our troops in the Middle East.”
Nation-building? More from Trump“…will work tirelessly to bring Iran back from the brink of destruction, making it economically bigger, better, and stronger than ever before.”
War enters day seven as Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian says several countries have begun mediation efforts to end the conflict with the US and Israel, while stressing negotiations must confront those who “ignited this conflict.”
Adm. Brad Cooper, CENTCOM Commander: “The Iranian terrorist regime has attacked 12 different countries and continues to deliberately target civilians throughout the Middle East. Last night, Iranian forces fired seven attack drones at civilians, residential neighborhoods in Bahrain. This… will not go unanswered…
Wapo highlights Ft. Bragg (Ft Liberty) canceled exercises, troops on standby: The U.S. Army abruptly canceled a major training exercise for the 82nd Airborne Division’s headquarters, fueling speculation that the rapid-response unit could deploy to the Middle East as the U.S. conflict with Iran expands.
Iran says EU ‘legitimate’ target if it joins war: France24
Heavy fighting continues, with Tehran experiencing its most intense bombardment yet, including strikes near key government districts; Israel says the attacks mark a “new phase” of the war.
Trump rejects negotiations amid Tehran reports that outside countries offered mediation, declaring there will be “no deal except unconditional surrender,” and suggesting Iran could later select a new leader with US approval.
Global fallout intensifies: Brent oil futures surges to around $90, Gulf energy flows face disruption, Russia says demand for its energy is rising, and reports indicate Moscow may be providing Iran intelligence on US military assets in the region.
Qatar News Agency, Citing Minister of State for Energy Affairs, says The ongoing war will force Gulf states to halt energy production and exports within days.
Israeli official admits Hezbollah joined conflict with unexpected intensity.Israeli military: Five IDF soldiers seriously wounded by Hezbollah rocket as Air Force pounds Beirut
President Trump said sending ground troops into Iran would be a “waste of time.“
China assistance in question via CNN: The US also has intelligence suggesting that China may be preparing to provide Iran with financial assistance, spare parts and missile components, three people familiar with the matter said, though Beijing has stayed out of the war up until now – though relies heavily on Iranian oil and has reportedly been pressuring Tehran to allow safe passage for vessels through the Strait of Hormuz.
Iranian ballistic missiles on Israel show signs of slowing, but severe damage in Tel Aviv and elsewhere has been documented, and Israeli civilian/military casualties. Last days have seen no Pentagon updates on US casualties which stands at 6 troops killed and many ‘seriously’ wounded.
* * *
The war has entered its seventh day, but there could be a glimmer of hope for some kind of diplomatic-led offramp as Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian indicated Friday that several countries have begun mediation efforts to end the war with the United States and Israel, but insists negotiations must confront those who started the conflict. “Some countries have begun mediation efforts. Let’s be clear: we are committed to lasting peace in the region, yet we have no hesitation in defending our nation’s dignity and sovereignty,” Pezeshkian wrote on X.
“Mediation should address those who underestimated the Iranian people and ignited this conflict,” he added. The mood over at the White House seems one of trying to get the unanticipated after-effects and especially the ongoing fierce Iranian retaliation on Gulf targets under control. Tehran overnight and into Friday saw the heaviest bombardment yet of the Iranian capital. Meanwhile, Brent oil futures have surged to $90 a barrel on the Iran war.
Iran hit an American Patriot missile site in the UAE. No injuries reported. Photos provided by a source. pic.twitter.com/BXl6ruF84b
Importantly, President Trump Friday morning has made clear in a Truth Social post that there will be “no deal” except under “unconditional surrender”. He also asserted that after this, Iran can “select a great, acceptable leader” with his help and approval. “There will be no deal with Iran except UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER! After that, and the selection of a GREAT & ACCEPTABLE Leader(s), we, and many of our wonderful and very brave allies and partners,” he stated. And following this CNN cited both Trump and Hegseth to say they rate the war at “12 or 15 out of 10.” The president also sees gasoline prices going down “very quickly” – per CNN.
This smashed WTI up to $88 – the highest since Oct 2023…
Massive explosions rocked residential neighborhoods and areas near Tehran University, as US and Israeli strikes targeted sites linked to Iran’s military and political leadership, with Al Jazeera’s correspondent reporting that the intensity of the bombardment exceeded anything seen earlier in the war. “I can say that compared to previous days, we saw heavier bombardment overnight, at least in the capital,” the report said. CNN also now belatedly has a war correspondent on the ground in Iran.
Notably, some of the latest strikes hit areas near Pasteur Street, a heavily secured district that houses key government institutions and where Iran’s supreme leader and several family members were killed in the opening hours of the conflict. Israel is vowing attacks marked a “new phase” of the war.
According to the Israeli military, about 50 fighter jets struck an “underground bunker” in Tehran that had been constructed for the late supreme leader, which allegedly extended beneath entire streets in central Tehran and contained meeting facilities used by senior officials even after the leader’s death.
Iranian FM and IRGC defiant…
Plan A for a clean rapid military victory failed, Mr. President. Your Plan B will be even bigger failure.
The truth: Chance for unique deal burned after the ‘America Last’ cabal obscured “significant progress” we made in negotiations.
Israeli officials further claim the campaign is beginning to expose fractures inside Iran’s military chain of command; however, some reports have said various units could be acting autonomously under emergency orders to unleash full retaliation.
The United States has also made clear it is escalating its operations, with B-2 bombers having dropped dozens of bunker-busting “penetrator” bombs on deeply buried ballistic-missile launch sites across Iran. War Secretary Pete Hegseth has warned that the air campaign is “about to surge dramatically” – with President Trump also not showing signs of backing down, describing that the military operation is advancing faster than expected.
Iran is being demolished “ahead of schedule and at levels people have never seen before,” Trump asserted, claiming the country now has “no air force, no air defense” and that its air power is “gone.”
Israel is touting annihilation of all of “Iran’s top leadership” but at this point in the war leadership is likely more dispersed than what Israeli and Western officials are saying:
🚨 Breaking: This morning 50 Israeli planes dropped 100 bombs on an underground bunker in the leadership compound of Tehran, reportedly eliminating all the top remaining leadership of the regimepic.twitter.com/b57Vv1KQuw
Since last Saturday at least 1,332 Iranians have been killed, but the death toll could be much higher amid ongoing rescue efforts of people under the rubble in heavily hit areas. Iranian media has reported that missiles struck two schools in the town of Parand southwest of Tehran, in the latest.
But Iran does continue to retaliate across the region. In Israel, by all appearances the number of inbound ballistic missiles has slowed significantly compared with the opening days of the war. Israeli officials say roughly 90 missiles were fired on the first day, about 60 the following day, and around 20 per day since Monday. In total, Iranian media claim roughly 500 ballistic missiles have been launched during the conflict – possibly most of them intercepted, but a significant amount making impact and causing severe damage.
Late Thursday night Tel Aviv came under combined missile and drone attacks, though medics reported no injuries following the latest barrage in southern Israel. Still, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) says its “new-generation missiles struck American bases in Gulf countries” and Israeli targets including “Ben Gurion Airport, Haifa and Tel Aviv.”
Iranian forces also claim to have attacked a “US-owned” oil tanker off the coast of Kuwait, leaving the vessel on fire, according to Iranian state radio. Iranian state television reported that large numbers of drones launched by the army targeted American military bases in Kuwait.
“These attacks will continue in the coming hours,” the military said. Iranian drones have targeted countries across the Gulf from the United Arab Emirates to Qatar and Bahrain. Azerbaijani officials said Iranian drones crossed their border and injured four people in the Nakhchivan exclave, prompting Baku to withdraw diplomatic staff from Iran for safety.
⚡️ Iranian drones target two hotels and a residential building in Bahrain’s capital, Manama. pic.twitter.com/MASF5PQJQd
In Lebanon, Israeli airstrikes pounded towns in the south and east of the country as well as Beirut’s southern suburbs after the Israeli military issued mass evacuation orders for large sections of the capital. The United Nations says nearly 100,000 people have been displaced in Lebanon and thousands of Syrian refugees have fled back across the border.
The conflict is further drawing in outside powers, with the most significant development being The Washington Post reporting that Russia has been providing Iran with intelligence on the locations of US military assets in the Middle East, including warships and aircraft. US officials described the effort as “a pretty comprehensive effort” by Moscow, though the accuracy of the intelligence remains unclear.
This is also when the ‘fog of war’ and propaganda is very heavy – and so such allegations especially from an ultra-heart-of-the-establishment D.C. beltway publication should be treated with caution and skepticism. However, it would make perfect sense that Russia is helping its Mideast ally, given that Russia and Iran signed a strategic partnership agreement earlier this year expanding military and defense cooperation. Despite that, Hegseth said earlier in the week that Russia is “not really a factor” in the conflict.
So you’re telling me that the US supplying Ukraine with intelligence, weapons and missiles to hit Russia has consequences? https://t.co/hrkwtyGhQK
Meanwhile in the ultimate irony of ironies, Financial Times is reporting US officials are discussing the purchase of Ukrainian-made drone interceptors to counter Iranian drones, which some analysts say have proven harder to stop than expected. Patriot missile interceptors used by US allies cost more than $4 million each, while the Ukrainian systems are significantly cheaper and designed to defeat the same Shahed-type drones used by Russia.
Back in Iran, ‘Pro-regime’ sentiment making itself known, with across the country large crowds gathering for the first Friday prayers since the war began. Tens of thousands of worshippers carrying portraits of the slain supreme leader chanted anti-US and anti-Israel slogans despite the ongoing bombardment. There have also been “death to the Shah” type chants heard, amid reports that Trump wants to have a hand in directly choosing a puppet leader for Iranians.
First Friday prayers since massive attacks started:
Friday prayers under Trump missiles in the city of Tabriz.
— Seyed Mohammad Marandi (@s_m_marandi) March 6, 2026
Meanwhile the conflict continues disrupting global energy flows. But as we’ve been highlighting, that means: “We are seeing a significant increase in demand for Russian energy resources in connection with the war in Iran,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said. Russia remains “a reliable supplier of oil and gas,” he added.
Western MSM has tended not to show the large pro-government demonstrations which had been on and off since January, in tandem with the anti-Tehran protests and clashes:
⚡️⭕️ Massive continuous demonstrations in various Iranian cities in support of the armed forces demanding revenge, for the 6th day in a row
— Middle East Observer (@ME_Observer_) March 6, 2026
International Energy Agency director Fatih Birol says global markets still have ample supply. “We have no oil shortage … there is a huge surplus,” he said. But Qatar’s energy minister Saad al-Kaabi offered a far more pessimistic outlook, warning it could take “weeks to months” for energy exports to normalize even if the war stopped immediately.
“Everybody’s energy price is going to go higher,” he said. “There will be shortages of some products and there will be a chain reaction of factories that cannot supply.”
On the airspace closure and travel front, the widening war is also triggering evacuations and security concerns far beyond the battlefield, with thousands of travelers still stranded across the region as airlines cancel flights, though Emirates says it transported roughly 30,000 passengers out of Dubai in a single day and expects to restore its full flight network soon. Limited commercial flights have resumed from Israel.
Footage circulating online shows people chanting ‘death to Pahlavi’ in the Khuzestan province in southwest Iran
Protesters were referring to Reza Pahlavi, the son of the last shah living in exile in the US, who has spearheaded a movement advocating for the monarchy’s restoration pic.twitter.com/i4OxP90VtK
In Britain, counterterrorism police arrested four men on allegedly suspicion of spying on the Jewish community for Iran. The Metropolitan Police said the suspects – one Iranian national and three dual British-Iranian citizens – were detained early Friday morning in Barnet and Watford. Meanwhile, international pressure continues mounting over civilian casualties – while at the Pentagon there has not been any new casualty update since six American troops were confirmed killed in the opening days of Operation Epic Fury.
Nearly 20,000 U.S. citizens have returned safely from the Middle East since Feb. 28, when the Iran conflict broke out, Dylan Johnson, assistant secretary at the Bureau of Global Public Affairs, said in a March 5 statement.
“These figures do not include the many Americans who have safely relocated to other countries or those who have departed the Middle East but are still in transit back to the United States,” Johnson said. “At the direction of Secretary [Marco] Rubio, Department of State charter flight and ground transportation operations are underway and will continue to ramp up with additional flights and ground transports taking place today.”
“Through the State Department’s 24/7 Task Force, we have assisted over 10,000 Americans abroad, including offering security guidance and travel assistance. The State Department will continue to actively assist any American citizen abroad, who wishes to depart the Middle East, to do so.”
Johnson highlighted that the department has set up an online Crisis Intake form for Americans residing in Kuwait, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Israel.
U.S. citizens completing the form will receive information about upcoming ground transportation and charter aviation options. Americans in the Middle East can contact the State Department at +1-202-501-4444 for assistance.
In a March 5 post on X, the State Department’s Bureau of Consular Affairs said that in the UAE, limited commercial flights are currently operating out of international airports in the country.
“Passengers are advised not to travel to the airport unless they hold a confirmed ticket and have been explicitly advised by their airline to do so. There are overland routes to Oman and Saudi Arabia where commercial options to depart the region are operating, but there are reports of congestion,” the bureau said.
In Qatar, the airspace and maritime routes remain closed, but the Salwa land border crossing into Saudi Arabia is currently open, the bureau said.
In Israel, the West Bank, and Gaza, the Ben Gurion Airport was scheduled to reopen on March 5 for limited inbound flights, according to a post on X by the agency.
However, “we have no information yet on when outbound flights may become available,” it said. “There are overland routes to Taba, Egypt, where commercial options to depart the region are operating. Americans should strongly consider departing on one of these overland routes if they believe it is safe to do so.”
Americans in Oman should consider leaving as some flights are departing from the nation’s international airports, the bureau said.
According to data from aviation analytics company Cirium, almost 25,000 of the approximately 44,000 flights scheduled to fly in and out of the Middle East between Saturday and Thursday have been canceled.
Firepower to ‘Surge Dramatically’
The Iran conflict, now in its sixth day on Thursday, began after U.S. and Israeli forces launched coordinated strikes against Tehran on Feb. 28.
Adm. Brad Cooper, head of U.S. Central Command, said Thursday that strikes on the Iranian Navy have “intensified.”
U.S. forces have, to date, sunk more than 30 of Iran’s ships, including “an Iranian drone carrier ship roughly the size of a World War II aircraft carrier,” Cooper said.
Secretary of War Pete Hegseth said Thursday that firepower over Iran was about to “surge dramatically.”
“When we say more to come, it’s more fighter squadrons, it’s more capabilities, it’s more defensive capabilities,” Hegseth said. “And it’s more bomber pulses more frequently.”
In an update on the war, Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir, the Israeli army’s chief of the General Staff, said 60 percent of Iran’s missile launchers have been taken out, with 40 percent remaining intact. In addition, 80 percent of Tehran’s air defenses have also been neutralized.
“The threat has not yet been removed. Every missile is lethal and poses a danger,” Zamir said. “We are now moving to the next phase of the operation. In this phase, we will further dismantle the regime and its military capabilities. We have additional surprises ahead that I do not intend to disclose.”
On Thursday, a war powers resolution against Operation Epic Fury failed to pass the House by a vote of 212-219. The resolution aimed to impose guardrails on the United States’ ongoing military operations in Iran. On March 4, the measure failed to pass in the Senate.
After the House vote, Rep. Mike Johnson (R-La.), speaker of the House, said the United States was conducting a “limited operation” in Iran that is “limited in scope and duration.”
“We are not at war. We have no intention of being at war,” Johnson said, adding that the U.S. mission against Iran was “nearly accomplished.”
