Shocking new details are emerging about 12 hours after the horrific mass shooting at a downtown Austin, Texas, bar early Sunday, with New York Post sources indicating that the deceased shooting suspect, Ndiaga Diagne, a U.S. citizen born in Senegal and living in Texas, allegedly carried out the attack that left three people dead and 14 injured including three in critical condition, with federal agents examining whether the attack was potentially motivated by US-Iran conflict.

Austin Police Chief Lisa Davis told reporters that officers arrived at Buford’s bar, a popular beer garden on West Sixth Street in the downtown metro area.

The early investigation shows that Diagne circled the block around the bar several times in an SUV before the shooting, Davis said at a news conference.

BREAKING: @FoxNews has obtained a photo of the Austin, TX mass shooter, armed & wearing a sweater that says “Property of Allah”. He has not been identified by authorities, but multiple federal law enforcement sources tell FOX he is a 53-year-old naturalized US citizen who was… pic.twitter.com/YjyT8sIuBr

— Bill Melugin (@BillMelugin_) March 1, 2026

Footage posted on X of the aftermath of the mass shooting is absolutely horrifying.

🚨Update: Iranian Sleeper Cells! FBI believes the mass shooting at a bar in Austin, Texas, that killed three and injured 14 was an “act of terrorism!” pic.twitter.com/E6gNr2eMEn

— US Homeland Security News (@defense_civil25) March 1, 2026

Alex Doran, a special agent with the San Antonio FBI field office, told reporters that the agency is working with local police on the investigation.

🚨 BREAKING: The Senegalese Islamist mass shooter in Austin, TX has been identified as 53 y/o Ndiaga Diagne

He was wearing a “PROPERTY OF ALLAH” shirt during the attack, per @chiproytx

MORE innocent American victims of Islamic terror by someone who SHOULDN’T HAVE BEEN HERE!… pic.twitter.com/MM5PKiOKck

— Nick Sortor (@nicksortor) March 1, 2026

“There were indicators that on the subject and in his vehicle that indicate potential nexus to terrorism,” Doran said. “Again, it’s still too early to make a determination on that.”

I’ve heard from multiple sources that the Austin shooter wore a shirt saying “Property of Allah.” – in addition to Quran in car, and naturalizing from Senegal just over a decade ago. https://t.co/KuGXx4MfBt

— Chip Roy (@chiproytx) March 1, 2026

Diagne is a naturalized citizen from Senegal who has been in the U.S. for 15 years. Sources told NYPost that the shooter had a Quran in his vehicle and was dressed in clothing described as Islamic garb when he fired on the bar with a handgun, as well as a long rifle.

UPDATE: Per multiple federal law enforcement sources to me & @Brooketaylortv, the Austin, TX mass shooter was wearing clothing that had the words “Property of Allah” on it and was possibly wearing an undershirt/T-shirt that had an Iranian flag or Iranian representations on it.

— Bill Melugin (@BillMelugin_) March 1, 2026

Sources told NYPost that investigators are examining whether the gunman may have been motivated by the U.S. strikes on Iran earlier in the day.

The shooting is likely to intensify scrutiny of U.S. border security and mass migration threats already in the Homeland, especially as former CIA targeting officer Sarah Adams has repeatedly warned about foreign-trained Islamists already on U.S. soil.

The question is whether this was an isolated incident (lone wolf) or an early signal of an emerging threat cycle, where the strike on Iran could accelerate copycat attacks and or activate terror cells.

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

Fresh analysis lays bare the Democrats’ crumbling position on immigration, with voters trusting Republicans more than ever to handle border security—even as radicals ramp up their attacks on ICE and deportations.

CNN data analyst Harry Enten highlighted the stark shift during a recent segment, noting that despite the barrage of anti-ICE rhetoric, Democrats are faring worse now than during Trump’s first term.

“Despite EVERYTHING that’s been going on, Democrats in a WORSE position than Trump’s 1st term!” Enten said.

? BREAKING: CNN was just forced to confirm that Democrats are PLUMMETING on the issue of immigration despite the relentless propaganda and smears on ICE

WOW, they are down -11 points from Trump’s first term! ?

“Despite EVERYTHING that’s been going on, Democrats in a WORSE… pic.twitter.com/9LV5DY3U4H

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) February 26, 2026

He pointed to polling data showing voters believe “They think Democrats will do a WORSE JOB on immigration than Republicans.”

On border security specifically, Enten added: “Border security? HELLO! 2018, Republicans up 13. The advantage is a little LARGER NOW, up 15 points!”

Dismissing any notion that Democrats could capitalize on the issue, he concluded: “The idea Democrats can take the ball and run away on it? Polling says NO, NO, NO.”

This comes amid a wider hardening of public attitudes toward immigration enforcement. Republicans now hold a five-point lead on who Americans trust more on immigration—a complete reversal from Democrats’ six-point edge in 2018.

The propaganda stemming from places like Minnesota against ICE has clearly failed, as Enten’s breakdown confirms.

These developments build on the groundswell of support for deportations. As detailed in our earlier report on overwhelming American demand for deporting illegals and full ICE cooperation, polls from outlets like Cygnal and Harvard Harris showed 73% agreeing illegal entry is a crime, 61% backing deportations, and 67% insisting on local officials working with federal authorities.

Multiple surveys reinforced this, with 55% to 64% favoring mass deportations across sources like the New York Times, Marquette, CBS News, and ABC News. Enten himself previously noted this “uniformity across four pollsters” as a “majority view,” with 63% supporting deporting recent arrivals and 87% for those with criminal records.

The leftist frenzy only amplifies this backlash. Incidents like this Minnesota woman stalking and abusing ICE agents tracking a child rapist murderer illegal, showcase the radicals’ dangerous obstruction. 

Her chilling admission that she “doesn’t care” about victims underscores the extremism driving voters away.

From high school assaults on pro-ICE students to AOC’s “teach-ins” on interfering with operations, these tactics are fueling everyday Americans to rally behind Trump’s crackdown.

DHS reports spikes in threats and assaults on agents, yet the public tide turns harder against open borders. With 55% now wanting decreased immigration levels—the highest since post-9/11—globalist policies are being rejected outright.

As Enten’s latest numbers prove, the Radical Left’s sabotage is collapsing under its own weight. Trump’s push to secure borders and empower ICE isn’t just popular; it’s the mandate restoring sovereignty and safety to American streets.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

You can already hear some liberals and left-leaning libertarians now:  “He paid for his crime, right?  So what’s the problem? What about the politicians mentioned in the Epstein files…?”

But “whataboutism” is not a valid argument for rationalizing societal decay.  And if America isn’t capable of applying the most basic standards at the lowest levels of government, then America is lost.

Rene Campos, a registered sex offender, is seeking elected office in California – launching a campaign for Fresno City Council amid fierce backlash and renewed questions about whether someone with his record should hold public office.

Campos was arrested in 2018 following a cyber tip to the Central California Internet Crimes Against Children Task Force.  He was found in possession of child sex abuse material, according to court records. In 2021 he entered a no-contest plea to a single misdemeanor charge of possessing and controlling child pornography/child sex abuse material (likely under California Penal Code § 311.11).  He served only one month in prison and a two year probation period.

Campos describes himself as a gay man who is running for office on the platform of “reduced crime and rehabilitation.”

Possession of child pornography is typically treated as a felony, even in a woke haven like California.  How the Fresno candidate was able to make a deal for a misdemeanor charge and spend only one month in prison is a mystery, but this does help to confirm ongoing suspicions that California’s legal system is falling into steep decline. 

California is notoriously soft on child sex abusers.  Recently, a Sacramento parole board released Daniel Allen Funston, who was convicted in 1999 of sixteen counts of kidnapping and child molestation after a horrific crime spree in Sacramento County, during which he kidnapped, raped, and beat eight children ages 3 to 7. 

Funston was originally sentenced to three consecutive life terms plus 20 years, but was set free at age 64 due to a California elderly inmate program (maybe he’ll run for office, too).  

Data from 2022 shows that the Golden State released over 7000 child sex offenders after less than one year of incarceration.  Interestingly, “digital blocks” were added to the Megan’s Law website that prevent more recent analysis. 

State Senator and LGBT activist Scott Weiner has supported multiple pieces of legislation that help to reduce punishments for sex offenders.  He authored a bill in 2017, signed into law, which created a three-tier sex offender registry system in California. It allows some “lower-risk” offenders (including those convicted of misdemeanor possession of child pornography) to petition for removal from the registry after 10-20 years (Tier 1 or 2), rather than lifetime registration. 

Perhaps the most disturbing factor is that in California a candidate like Campos actually has a good chance of winning.  He is a member of the LGBT community, a minority, and he appeals to the progressive desire to prove that laws are “artificial constructs” and that criminal convictions should not “define a person.”  In other words, Campos could win the election simply because he gives leftists an opportunity to prove that even the worst criminals are merely downtrodden victims who were never given a chance to succeed.   

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

As we will discuss further in today’s commentary, the market remains stuck in a fairly narrow trading range. The week opened with a broad selloff after Anthropic’s expanded AI capabilities rattled software, cybersecurity, and financial stocks, with IBM suffering its worst session since 2000. CrowdStrike and Zscaler also dropped about 10% on the news. The financials sector fell more than 3% as American Express, Goldman Sachs, and Blackstone came under pressure on fears that AI could automate large portions of their businesses. A widely circulated Citrini Research piece warning of 10% AI-driven unemployment gave bears a macro narrative.

Yet the “AI kills everything” narrative ignores what the data actually shows: companies are integrating AI, not dying from it. McKinsey’s 2025 State of AI survey found 88% of firms already use AI in at least one business function, up from 78% a year prior, while by Q1 2026, that figure reached 78% of U.S. corporations scaling AI enterprise-wide, according to Netguru. Salesforce’s Q4 2026 earnings showed over 22,000 Agentforce deals closed in the quarter, with combined AI and Data Cloud ARR surging to $1.8 billion from $1.4 billion just three months earlier, proving enterprise buyers are choosing to buy AI tools from incumbents rather than be replaced by them.

Deloitte’s 2026 State of AI in the Enterprise report found that two-thirds of organizations already report productivity and efficiency gains, while a Harvard study showed that consultants using AI completed tasks 25% faster and at 40% higher quality, augmentation, not elimination. Goldman Sachs Research estimates AI-driven productivity could lift global GDP by 7% (roughly $7 trillion) and sees the next phase of the AI trade rotating precisely toward “productivity beneficiaries,” the non-tech companies that harness AI to widen margins.

Meanwhile, LPL Research notes that BLS data already shows real output rising 5.4% while hours worked grew just 0.5%, and that only 5.7% of U.S. job hours currently involve generative AI, meaning the largest productivity gains are still ahead, not behind us.

The crucial point to consider is that the IBM selloff and SaaS panic of this year may ultimately look less like the beginning of a displacement cycle and more like the kind of reflexive fear that preceded every prior wave of technological adoption. We have seen this same cycle, from ATMs (which reduced bank teller employment) to cloud computing (which expanded, not destroyed, enterprise software). Notably, the companies that adapt capture outsized value, and the ones that don’t were already failing for other reasons.

The main event came on Wednesday after the close. Nvidia reported fiscal Q4 revenue of $68.1 billion, beating the $65.9 billion consensus by 3.3%. Notably, it guided Q1 to $78 billion, well above the $72.8 billion estimate. Data center revenue totaled $62.3 billion, up 75% year over year. However, the stock still fell 5% on Thursday as investors flagged a lack of detail on lingering China uncertainty. However, Nvidia currently trades at a deep discount to the broad market index. While the S&P trades near 22x earnings, Nvidia’s forward PE is 17x with a 0.45 price-to-earnings-growth ratio. With EPS expected to grow by 39.2% over the next 5 years, the fundamentals are compelling. By focusing on a possible future event that may or may not occur, they may miss a fundamentally strong company trading at a discount.

The big risk worth watching is that tariff policy remains in legal limbo after the SCOTUS ruling. The AI disruption narrative is broadening beyond software into financials and logistics. And the extreme rotation into Energy, Materials, and Industrials (up 21%, 17% and 12% respectively) has left positioning dangerously one-sided against Technology.

Resilience is not the same as safety.

Which brings us to the market.

Market Topping Process? Yes or No.

The question facing equity investors in early 2026 is deceptively simple: Is the stock market topping? This was a topic we touched on in Wednesday’s #DailyMarketCommentary:

“Technically, the market looks weak, as shown in the chart below. Momentum continues to fade along with Relative Strength. Furthermore, the market has been making lower highs as of late and is threatening to break important support at the 100-day moving average.”

Greg Feirman also touched on this concern, noting:

“While the S&P is only about 2% off its all-time highs, beneath the surface the market is showing signs of a top. Warren Pies tweeted today that there have been only two other times when Consumer Staples and Energy were up more than 10% and Technology and Financials were negative over the previous 63 trading days: 1990 (Desert Storm) and 2000 – both of which were market tops. Health Care – another defensive sector – has also been outperforming the S&P of late.”

Another warning came from the recent triggering of a “Hindenburg Omen.” The last time we discussed this warning was in early November:

Bottom line: market breadth is horrendous and will likely lead to a rotation favoring out-of-favor sectors and stocks. Thus, it’s not surprising that the Hindenburg Omen was triggered. If we continue to see more of these Omens, the threat of a drawdown grows.

At the time, Mega-Cap stocks were grossly outperforming the market, while many sectors lagged the market. Since that Hindenburg Alarm, our expectations have come to fruition. We have, in fact, seen a “rotation favoring out-of-favor sectors and stocks.” Over the last month, the Hindenburg Omen has sent 6 alarms. The last batch of Hindenburg alarms signaled drawdowns in the leaders and strong performance in the laggards.

Lastly, as discussed over the last few weeks, the problem with the potential market-topping process is the divergence between the defensive names, which are extremely overbought, and the growth names, which are extremely oversold. However, those growth names are where the earnings and revenue growth reside. With that in mind, the next rotation could be from defensive names back to growth names, which are now trading at significantly lower forward PEs. Such a rotation would be exactly what often happens, as no one currently expects it.

If it isn’t a market top, then is the recent rotation out of growth and into defensive sectors merely the kind of healthy digestion that precedes a further leg higher?

These are the questions we will dig into today.

The Case for a Top: What the Bears See

The S&P 500 has spent recent weeks grinding in a range that has tested the patience of both bulls and bears. More notable than the index’s headline price action has been the dramatic shift beneath the surface: utilities, healthcare, and consumer staples have led the tape, while the mega-cap technology stocks that powered the bulk of the post-2022 rally have stalled or retreated. The Nasdaq 100’s underperformance relative to the equal-weight S&P 500 has reached levels not seen since the first quarter of 2022, a period that, it bears noting, preceded a punishing bear market leg.

For market technicians, the pattern is uncomfortably familiar. Market-topping processes throughout history, from 2000 to 2007 to 2021, have been preceded by precisely this kind of internal deterioration: narrowing leadership, defensive outperformance, and a growing divergence between price-weighted and breadth-based indicators. The question is whether history is rhyming again, or whether the analogy is misleading.

The most compelling argument that equities are in a market-topping process begins with the market’s internal structure. When investors rotate aggressively into utilities, staples, and healthcare sectors prized for their dividend yields and earnings stability rather than their growth prospects, it is typically a signal that institutional capital is seeking shelter. Money doesn’t move into Procter & Gamble and Duke Energy because portfolio managers are feeling adventurous. It moves there because they are seeking relative safety.

The breadth picture reinforces this concern. The percentage of S&P 500 constituents trading above their 200-day moving average has been declining even as the index itself has held near its highs, a classic negative divergence. We also see the same negative divergence in the market’s relative strength measures. In past market-topping processes, such divergences have preceded meaningful corrections by 2 to 6 months.

Then there is the yield curve. After a prolonged inversion that began in 2022, the curve’s re-steepening in late 2024 and into 2025 prompted some relief among investors who viewed the normalization as a sign the recession everyone feared had been avoided. But historically, the most dangerous period for equities is not during the inversion itself; it is in the 12 to 18 months after the curve un-inverts. The logic is straightforward: the curve steepens because the Fed is cutting rates in response to slowing growth, and the lagged effects of prior tightening are still working through the economy. By the time the damage becomes visible in earnings, the market-topping process has likely been completed.

Lastly, credit markets, while not yet flashing red, are showing early signs of strain. Investment-grade and high-yield spreads have widened modestly from their tightest levels, and dispersion within the high-yield market, particularly in private credit, has increased. Historically, credit leads equities, and the subtle deterioration in risk appetite in fixed income is difficult for equity bulls to dismiss entirely.

But let’s also discuss the bull case.

The Case for a Base: What the Bulls See

The bull case is not built on dismissing the rotation into defensives but on reframing it. Proponents of the view that the market is building a base, rather than a market-topping process, and point out that leadership transitions within a bull market are not inherently bearish. In fact, some of the healthiest and most durable advances in market history have been accompanied by exactly the kind of broadening and rotation currently underway.

Consider the precedent of 2016. After a narrow, FANG-led rally in 2015, the market experienced a gut-wrenching correction in early 2016 driven by growth fears and an oil price collapse. What followed was not a bear market but a powerful rotation: value outperformed growth, small caps outperformed large caps, and the equal-weight index began to lead. As shown, that outperformance remained intact for nearly 36 months before it failed.

The key distinction, then, is between rotation that signals deterioration and rotation that signals broadening. The former typically occurs alongside falling earnings estimates and rising unemployment claims. The latter occurs when the economy is resilient enough to support a wider set of winners. On this score, the fundamental backdrop remains constructive. Aggregate S&P 500 earnings estimates for the forward twelve months have continued to grind higher, not lower, which is a crucial differentiator from the pre-recession environments of 2000 and 2007, when estimates were rolling over well before the index peaked.

The labor market, while cooling from its post-pandemic tightness, has avoided the kind of abrupt deterioration that typically precedes a recession. Initial jobless claims, perhaps the single most reliable real-time indicator of labor market health, have remained contained.

Monetary policy also supports the bullish interpretation. The Federal Reserve’s pivot toward accommodation, whether through actual rate reductions or a clear willingness to ease if conditions warrant, provides an important backstop. Historical analysis from Ned Davis Research shows that when the Fed eases into an environment of positive earnings growth, the S&P 500 has posted gains in more than 80% of the subsequent 12-month periods. The combination of falling rates and rising earnings is, statistically, one of the most favorable macro regimes for equities.

The technical picture, while mixed, is not uniformly bearish either. The S&P 500 remains above its rising 52-week (1-year) and 208-week (4-year) moving averages. That 52-week moving average has been a consistent bullish “line in the sand” that, when lost and confirmed, has historically been one of the most reliable signals that a cyclical bear market is underway. As long as that trend anchor holds, the benefit of the doubt arguably belongs to the bulls. The most important trend line is the 208-week moving average. If that fails, the bears will have control of the market.

Moreover, sentiment indicators have swung sharply toward pessimism during the recent rotation, with the AAII bull-bear spread, the put-call ratio, and the CNN Fear and Greed Index all at levels that historically don’t suggest a market-topping process is underway. Market-topping processes are generally built on euphoria, not rising levels of uncertainty.

There is also a structural argument. The ongoing buildout of artificial intelligence infrastructure, the reshoring of manufacturing supply chains, and the capital expenditure cycle across the energy transition represent multi-year tailwinds for corporate earnings that extend well beyond the mega-cap technology cohort. If the AI investment cycle is broadening from the hyperscalers to the enterprise software layer and the industrial economy, then the rotation could have further to go.

So, which side do you pick?

The Verdict: Healthy Skepticism, Not Conviction

Markets rarely announce their intentions clearly, and the current environment is no exception. The bearish case rests on pattern recognition, the eerie similarity between today’s internal deterioration and the breadth collapses that preceded the last three major market topping processes, and on the arithmetic of valuation, which suggests that the margin of safety for equity investors is thinner than it has been in over two decades.

The bullish case rests on fundamentals that remain, for now, constructive: earnings are growing, the Fed is friendly, the labor market is intact, and sentiment is depressed enough to provide contrarian fuel. History shows that expensive markets with rising earnings can stay expensive far longer than value-oriented bears expect, and that defensive rotations within a secular uptrend are more often buying opportunities than exit signals.

The honest answer is that the market is at an inflection point where the evidence supports both interpretations. What will resolve the debate is not opinion, but price. As such, investors should pay close attention to key market levels, as noted in the Technical Update above.

• The 100-day moving average remains a key bullish trend support.

• The 200-day moving average is a critical support level for markets during a corrective process.

If the market breaks below the 100-day moving average, the market-topping process will likely be confirmed. If that happens, the next question for the bulls will be whether the S&P 500 can hold its 200-day average. The bulls, on the other hand, will need to see the market eventually confirm all-time highs on broader participation. A bull market can not last without the major sectors of Financials, Technology, and Healthcare providing support.

Key Catalysts Next Week

Traders face a packed week of macro data and heavyweight earnings beginning Monday, March 2nd. On the macro side, the week is bookended by two critical reads on the economy. ISM Manufacturing PMI lands Monday morning, after January’s surprise jump to 52.6 (the first expansion in 12 months), markets will scrutinize whether that rebound was genuine or simply a post-holiday reorder effect distorted by tariff front-running. A print below 50 would revive contraction fears and likely pressure cyclicals and small caps; a firm reading above 52 would reinforce the reflation narrative that has lifted Energy, Materials, and Industrials.

Wednesday is the ADP Employment Report and ISM Services PMI. Services never entered contraction, and ADP has shown a recovery in employment as of late. Then on Friday, the February Employment Situation (Nonfarm Payrolls) caps the week and will set the tone heading into mid-March. The key number will be the wage growth component; if average hourly earnings accelerate, it could push out rate-cut expectations and weigh on rate-sensitive sectors.

Earnings will also move the market next week: CrowdStrike (CRWD) reports after the close on Tuesday — the cybersecurity bellwether will offer a key read on enterprise security spend and the penetration of its Falcon Flex model. The market has priced in roughly a ±10% earnings move, so guidance will be the real catalyst. On Wednesday, Broadcom (AVGO) reports its fiscal Q1 2026 results with consensus revenue estimates near $19.2 billion.

Focus will be squarely on AI semiconductor revenue (guided to $8.2B for the quarter), custom ASIC demand from hyperscalers, and infrastructure software margins. Given the recent selloff in semis, a strong guide-up could reignite the AI trade. Thursday is Costco (COST) and Marvell Technology (MRVL), both reporting after the bell. Costco’s comparable sales trends and membership fee income will set the tone for the consumer, while Marvell’s data center revenue trajectory and Celestial AI integration update will add another data point to the AI infrastructure narrative.

Bottom line:

The bull trend is intact, but the “easy money” phase appears mature. The intermediate-to-long-term structure remains constructive. The 200-DMA is rising, breadth is near record levels, and the rotation trade is broadening participation. However, short-term momentum has deteriorated notably. The index is below both its 20- and 50-DMAs, the MACD has crossed bearishly, and the RSI is declining. Layer in the midterm election year seasonal headwinds, hotter-than-expected inflation, and Iran-related geopolitical risk, and the path of least resistance in early March tilts toward further consolidation or a modest pullback before the seasonal tailwinds attempt to reassert themselves. I suspect we will get a better entry point for a rally as we move into March. However, use that opportunity to rebalance oversized winners, define risk levels, and avoid chasing strength. Don’t fight the trend, but protect gains if volatility inevitably returns.

There is currently no evidence to suggest that the current rotation is the opening act of a more ominous distribution phase. However, that does not mean the evidence won’t eventually manifest. Therefore, investors who position dogmatically for a specific outcome are taking a lower-probability bet than those who remain flexible, watch the key levels, and let the tape itself provide the answer.

As the old market adage goes: the trend is your friend until it bends. The trend has not yet broken. But it is bending.

Oil and gas tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime chokepoint, has seen disruptions as the U.S.-Israeli campaign, Operation Epic Fury, continues targeting Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps command-and-control infrastructure across multiple Iranian cities; as of Sunday morning, only a limited number of tankers were observed exiting the Strait, while separate news reports indicate a sanctioned oil tanker was also attacked.

On Sunday morning, Automatic Identification System (AIS) vessel-tracking data showed that tanker traffic through the most critical energy chokepoint in the world, which handles about 20% of global petroleum liquids consumption and roughly 27% of global seaborne oil trade, had slowed to a near standstill, with tankers in holding patterns on both sides of the Strait’s entrance and exit.

S&P Global Energy notes:

• Strait of Hormuz handles 20% of global oil supply

• Iran exported 1.3 mil b/d in Jan, mainly to China

FACTBOX: Oil markets braced as Iran confirms death of Supreme Leader Khamenei https://t.co/jAdG2emkVR

🔹Iran exported 1.3 mil b/d in Jan, mainly to China
🔹Strait of Hormuz handles 20% of global oil supply pic.twitter.com/T9m55W3Nq7

— Oil by S&P Global Energy (@SPGEnergyOil) March 1, 2026

The big development in the Strait this morning was the attack on a tanker.

All the evidence suggests that Iran attacked one of its own (very small) dark fleet oil tankers (which was under US Treasury sactions). It feels like a false flag operation. The tanker near Oman had been in the same area for ~10 days; she wasn’t crossing the Strait of Hormuz. https://t.co/nLaiivp879

— Javier Blas (@JavierBlas) March 1, 2026

Oman’s Maritime Security Centre revealed that the sanctioned tanker Skylight, flying the flag of the Republic of Palau, was targeted five nautical miles north of Khasab Port.

⚡️Clearer vid pic.twitter.com/kLtv0xV6DE

— War Monitor (@WarMonitors) March 1, 2026

There are no confirmed reports identifying who struck the Skylight, but the incident came as Iran’s semi-official Tasnim news agency said on Saturday that the Strait of Hormuz was effectively closed to vessel traffic.

Mohsen Rezaei, a member of the Expediency Discernment Council that advises Iran’s supreme leader, warned on state TV that “no American ship is allowed to enter the Persian Gulf.”  

German container liner Hapag-Lloyd AG has suspended all transits through the waterway due to its “official closure,” while France’s CMA CGM SA, the world’s third-largest container line, told ships within its fleet to suspend passage through the Suez Canal and take shelter immediately.

The Financial Times reported that shipowners had canceled insurance policies and raised premiums for vessels transiting through the Gulf region.

We spoke with Rapidan Energy Group analyst Fernando Ferreira on Saturday about the situation unfolding in the Middle East, with a focus on the Strait.

Ferreira explained:

Iran understands that threatening traffic through Hormuz is its most credible asymmetric lever. Even limited interference can raise oil prices and impose immediate economic costs on the US and its partners, increasing pressure on Washington to de-escalate.

We expect at least moderate disruptions to Gulf oil flows in the coming days, with the risk tilted toward something more severe if tensions escalate further.

In energy markets, Goldman analyst Adam Crook told clients shortly after the operation began that:

Oil remains the most direct and liquid expression as a geopolitical hedge – while a full closure of the Strait of Hormuz remains a tail scenario, even a disruption of flows through the Strait via other means (targeting of ships, insurance issues) poses an upside scenario closer to $100/bbl. Additionally, whilst not our base case, an attack on Iranian Oil infrastructure puts 2mb/d of Iran Crude exports at risk.

A synthetic weekend market via IG has crude oil prices up as much as 9% early Sunday morning.

With flows through the Strait of Hormuz disrupted, the immediate impact will be higher Brent crude futures when markets open in New York this evening. The biggest pressure point, however, will be on China, which is the top buyer of Iranian seaborne crude and one of the most exposed major end markets for Hormuz-linked flows, meaning any prolonged disruption would further tighten Beijing’s supplies.

This follows a squeeze on Beijing’s access to cheap Venezuelan crude after President Trump moved last month to crimp those flows. All of this is unfolding ahead of President Trump’s meeting in Beijing in about a month.

Submitted by Thomas Kolbe

The “credit pump” could rightfully claim its place as a symbolic flag of the European Union. With virtually unlimited access to the bond market, politics magically transforms an inexhaustible credit stream into political maneuvers and ideological wizardry. Through this manipulation of money, processes and institutions are transplanted into the real world that, under normal circumstances, could never have surpassed the fantasies and limits of political ideology.

Wind turbines in forests, fully electric cargo bikes in an industrial nation that destroys its own engines of prosperity in favor of an artificial green subsidy economy, plunging itself into trillions of euros in new debt – a historically unprecedented degrowth spectacle, which has not erupted into open revolt only because hundreds of thousands losing their jobs are somehow absorbed into the public sector or cushioned, if not sedated, by the largesse of the German welfare state.

The same applies to open-border policies. Here too, perpetual credit seems to lubricate a project designed to unlock new voter potential for the political left. This process becomes possible through the systematic destruction of monetary value. National debt is not merely a fiscal problem; it erodes the fragile economic fabric of society. Moreover, it sends the fatal signal that an overpowering actor like the state can override the limits of productivity, reason, and scarcity at the push of a button.

Thus, the so-called debt brake was a political paper tiger from the start: Germany abandoned the path of political seriousness long ago and joined the ranks of debt magicians. It has become a driving force in an ideologically overgrown swamp of debt, making the refinancing problems of heavily indebted Eurozone states increasingly visible year after year.

Leading the debt race this year is the magic duo Germany-France. Budget figures are falsified, accounting tricks like special funds have become the standard of self-deception. Both countries enter 2026 with new debt of roughly five percent each.

The overall refinancing requirement of the Eurozone stands at €1.5 trillion. These are the gross issuances of government bonds necessary to roll existing debt forward and finance newly incurred deficits. 

This means around €100 billion more must be funneled into public coffers via the bond market. Will the legal framework be adjusted? Will major capital pools, banks, and pension funds be further coerced into the fiat credit system? Will the ECB once again step in massively as a buyer to dampen rising interest rates amid higher debt loads?

But how long can such a process sustain itself like a perpetuum mobile? When will the seemingly inexhaustible sources of the bond market run dry? The political camouflage will end when only the European Central Bank, as lender of last resort, keeps new debt liquid through massive market interventions. With each intervention, the money supply grows, along with doubts about the currency’s stability. Trust erodes, and the truth about the manipulation of interest rates, time preferences, and real costs – including the financial dimension of green transformation and migration into European social systems – can no longer be concealed.

This would be the moment of truth, the instant the house of cards of permanent debt starts to wobble. The crucial question is: which forces or developments could accelerate this process? Real resources for financing investments in the capital stock are limited. The state competes for credit to fund its social, climate, and military ambitions. It systematically displaces productive capital and lures scarce resources into unproductive channels with promises of returns, incentives, and subsidies. Growth dies; the nation’s prosperity diminishes.

If this is insufficient, additional credit is mobilized – if necessary, through central bank bond purchases. Meanwhile, pressure on the bond market intensifies: investors increasingly turn away from long-term government securities, while in the United States, the AI-driven economic miracle is heating up capital markets.

US tech corporations alone plan bond issuances of up to $360 billion this year to finance additional data centers and expand energy capacities. The European market is also under the sights of Microsoft, Google, Facebook, and others. Bonds worth €120–170 billion are expected to be placed on the Euro market, a growth of over ten percent compared to last year. The US economy is mobilizing all sources to anchor domestic growth with capital.

A tough competitor for sovereign issuers, as the private sector lures with dynamic business projects and generally higher returns. 

How much additional capital will flow from Europe to the United States? How large is the negative effect triggered by this American capital vacuum in the EU, which must mobilize resources to fund growing welfare states?

Clearly, interest rates will gradually rise, making refinancing and debt service in Europe more expensive. Budgetary room will shrink further.

And it becomes obvious what no one talks about: the massive downward movement of the US dollar against the euro is now a trap. Every investment from a European perspective in the United States, with a prospectively rising USD, becomes more profitable and yield-bearing. The strong euro acts as a second tariff barrier and intensifies the suction effect of investment capital into the US.

The Eurozone, and thus the economically closely interlinked EU member states, are coming under growing pressure. Geopolitically dependent on their energy suppliers, they remain rigid toward the energy and resource giant Russia. Europe walks a narrow line between dependence and self-interest.

Europe is strong when it relies on its regional competencies and strengthens intra-continental competition. Only this way can business models, engineering skill, and ideas emerge to meet the strong competition from China and the US on equal footing and maneuver into a better strategic position relative to competitors.

Ideologically, patriotic-conservative forces are called upon to end the climate-socialist madness, stabilize budgets, and put an end to the disastrous open-border policies – time is pressing for fiscal consolidation and state downsizing, even if Brussels and Berlin see it differently.

State downsizing and consolidation may sound like political fairy tales, yet Europe should never be written off. The continent has repeatedly emerged from severe crises and self-inflicted civilizational ruptures renewed and reinvented.

Capital and cultural foundations exist. Perhaps the American capital vacuum will help bounce Europe’s cultural decay – financed by the debt printer – off the wall of truth in the bond market.

* * * 

About the author: Thomas Kolbe, a German graduate economist, has worked for over 25 years as a journalist and media producer for clients from various industries and business associations. As a publicist, he focuses on economic processes and observes geopolitical events from the perspective of the capital markets. His publications follow a philosophy that focuses on the individual and their right to self-determination.

As questions hang over who will ultimately succeed Iran’s slain supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, an interim leader has been appointed to fulfill his duties. Top Shia cleric Alireza Arafi has been named to the interim Leadership Council after Supreme Leader Khamenei was confirmed killed in US-Israeli strikes, state media reported Sunday.

The ISNA news agency has described that Arafi, a member of the Guardian Council, is joining President Masoud Pezeshkian and Chief Justice Gholamhossein Mohseni Ejei on the body tasked with carrying out the supreme leader’s responsibilities until the Assembly of Experts appoints a permanent successor. All of this happening as US-Israeli bombs continue to fall on Tehran and other sites for a second straight day, ‘uninterrupted’ – as President Trump pledged Saturday.

Born in 1959, 67-year-old Alireza Arafi ranks among the most powerful clerics in Iran. Before his emergency elevation, he held three key posts: director of the nationwide Islamic Seminary system, member of the Guardian Council, and member of the Assembly of Experts.

While rooted in Qom’s clerical establishment, Arafi combines traditional religious authority with seeking to carefully modernize Iran; however his appointment of course signals continuity, and he’ll be tasked with seeking to ensure regime survival – which is what this moment is all about for Tehran. Most importantly, Arafi is viewed by the IRGC and political leadership as a loyal insider who will preserve a retaliatory trajectory during wartime.

Heavy US and Israeli bombing has been observed Sunday on the Iranian capital, particularly on known government and military command centers, but that hasn’t stopped large gatherings of mourners in other parts of the country.

While there’s been evidence of local celebrations in some sectors among anti-government Iranians, Sunday footage on state TV and other international media shows loyalists in possibly the hundreds of thousands showing solidarity with the slain Ayatollah the Islamic Republic leadership.

Mourners gathered at Tehran’s Enghelab Square to honour Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who was killed on Saturday after the US and Israel launched massive strikes on the capital.

Iran’s president branded the US-Israeli killing of Khamenei a “declaration of war against Muslims” pic.twitter.com/F7T8NDq1rg

— Middle East Eye (@MiddleEastEye) March 1, 2026

President Masoud Pezeshkian condemned the killing as “a great crime” and has declared seven days of public holidays in addition to the 40-day mourning period. Outraged and saddened Iranians were seen pouring into the streets of the capital soon after state TV finally made the announcement confirming Khamenei’s killing during the opening salvo of the US-Israeli attack. Iranian authorities have alleged major war crimes, including the deaths of over 85 young girls attending school when a bomb struck.

“There will be expected ceremonies,” Pezeshkian said, while noting they will have to happen even while the bombardment continues across the country. He’s also said his country views revenge as its “legitimate right and duty” after Khamenei had been murdered by the “most wicked villains in the world.”

The president further claimed the act was a “declaration of open war on Muslims, especially Shiites, in all corners of the world.” According to NBC:

The government in Iran is under attack like never before. Today tens of thousands of regime supporters packed into Tehran’s Revolution Square to mourn the late Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed in a joint U.S. and Israel military operation.

They chanted “God is great!” while officials promised revenge. One said Iran would deliver “terrifying blows” to make the U.S. and Israel beg for mercy.

Iran’s interim leadership council: President Masoud Pezeshkian, Head of Judiciary Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejei, and member of the Guardian Council and Assembly of Experts Ayatollah Ali Arafi. 

As for the day to day running of the country and immediately overseeing the military response, Ali Larijani is believed to be in the driver’s seat. Khamenei had reportedly personally tapped Larijani – a former Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) commander and political heavyweight – to take charge in the event of the Supreme Leader’s death.

Israel has confirmed it has conducted new strikes “in the heart of Tehran” and that the “majority” or Iran’s senior military leaders – some 40 of them – were killed in the opening wave. “The Israeli Air Force continues to operate extensively in both defense and offense, with the goal of removing threats posed to the State of Israel,” the IDF said – alongside the US boasting that they have established air superiority with much of Iran’s radars and air defenses having been taken out already.

Iran has said that at least 200 of its people have been killed, but the actual figure could be much higher, and is expected to be in the coming days. The external attack could go on for weeks, given especially President Trump is now calling for full regime change, which would mean defeating and dismantling the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). The problem with this is that most analyst agree it would require boots on the ground. Trump says he wants to see full “freedom” in Iran as the goal of the military operation.

Trump’s ‘shock & awe’: Tehran is a densely packed modern cosmopolitan city of almost 10 million people. The wider metropolitan area has over 16 million.

“This is a picture of Tehran. For you uneducated, untraveled, never-served, warhawks licking your chops at the thought of bombing it. It’s not some low population desert. There are families, children, family pets. Regular working class people with dreams. You’re sick to want war” pic.twitter.com/I60eoHpgON

— Mohamad Safa (@mhdksafa) February 28, 2026

Massive airstrikes on Tehran:

⚡️Massive airstrikes on Tehran pic.twitter.com/kIB4OU3SDM

— War Monitor (@WarMonitors) March 1, 2026

So far, it’s been limited to an air war, and with naval assets also firing, and no casualties on the US or Israeli sides have yet to be reported. It’s mainly America’s Gulf allies which have suffered, with Iranian ballistic missiles coming down on US bases in the region – but also strikes which have landed on hotels, buildings, and even major airports around the Gulf.

By all accounts Israel has been getting hit hard – though many analysts say Israel’s military censor is working in overdrive, preventing an avalanche of information from getting out. However, there’s still plenty of confirmation of some Iranian ballistic missile impacts:

⚡️From site of Iranian missile impact in central Israel pic.twitter.com/nCrkWUOuP1

— War Monitor (@WarMonitors) March 1, 2026

Air alert sirens continue sounding especially across central Israel. Tel Aviv was struck overnight:

This war looks to go on, even if there’s desire in the White House for it to be ‘one and done’ – as increasingly the Iranians have nothing to lose. One likely result of the unprovoked US-Israeli attack is that leadership in Tehran will only become more hardline. We detailed some of the initial Saturday blowback on the Gulf allies – but Sunday has witnessed some direct repercussions on US embassies and diplomatic compounds in the region. 

The US Consulates General in Karachi and Lahore has come under attack by large angry mobs, within hours after Khamenei’s death was announced. “Violent clashes between protesters and security forces in the Pakistani port city of Karachi left at least nine people killed and more than 50 others wounded on Sunday, after hundreds of demonstrators attempted to storm the U.S. Consulate, authorities said,” according to AP.

Anger is boiling over in Pakistan, as protesters storm and burn the US consulate in Karachi. Pakistan is the home to the world’s second largest Shia population in the world. The killing of Khamenei will have repercussions for the US. pic.twitter.com/lg9ch8mxp1

— Glenn Diesen (@Glenn_Diesen) March 1, 2026

Things are also popping off outside high-secured Baghdad’s Green Zone, where Iraqis are trying to breach the US embassy, with hundreds seen rioting and even bringing bulldozing equipment to the site. The mob threw stones and clashed with Iraqi security forces, which responded with tear gas. “Their attempts had been thwarted so far, but they keep trying,” an official told AFP. Iraq is a Shia majority country with heavy loyalty to the Shia religious establishment in Iran. Baghdad’s general pro-Iran stance and influence is a legacy of the Bush Neocons, who overthrow Sunni secular Baath dictator Saddam Hussein and elevated the Shia Mullahs. 

Germany is planning to abolish fixed feed-in tariffs for small rooftop solar installations as of 2027, saying that falling costs have made the technology economically sound without subsidies (narrator: “it isn’t“), Bloomberg reported on Friday, citing a draft proposal for reforms it has seen.

At present, rooftop solar installations of any kind are eligible for guaranteed tariffs. But this could change in a few months, if the government approves the proposal of the German economy ministry to have subsidies abolished for projects of less than 25 kilowatts, according to OilPrice.

The ministry argues that the small rooftop solar are now often viable on their own without incentives, thanks to the lower costs.

“To strengthen the cost efficiency of solar expansion, a stronger focus will in future be placed on cost-effective solar parks,” the ministry’s proposal reads, as carried by Bloomberg.

The plans for a reform of the subsidies was first leaked by German media outlets.

“If the leaked draft is genuine, it would be yet another attack on renewable energy, following the grid package proposal,” said Ursula Heinen-Esser, president of Germany’s renewable energy association BEE.

Abolishing support for rooftop solar would have “disastrous consequences” for the sector and would deprive homeowners from participating in the energy transition, Heinen-Esser added.

The German Solar Association, BSW-Solar, also deplored the leaked draft proposal as “a frontal attack on Germany’s energy transition.”

Germany plans to boost onshore wind capacity to 115 gigawatts and solar capacity to 215 gigawatts by the end of the decade—targets which it will keep in the proposal for reforms. Europe’s biggest economy has a target to have renewables account for 80% of its electricity generation in 2030.

In solar, Germany is halfway through reaching its 2030 solar power targets, BSW-Solar said in June last year.

Germany saw the highest number of onshore wind turbines commissioned in the first half of 2025 for eight years, but the rebound in installations is still off track to reach the official targets, the German wind energy association, Bundesverband WindEnergie (BWE), said in the middle of 2025.

Authored by ‘eugyppius’,

Old friends may remember the farce we experienced last May, when outgoing Marshmallow Interior Minister Nancy Faeser pushed her gaggle of goons in the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution (BfV) to upgrade their political classification of Alternative für Deutschland.

No longer did the BfV consider the national political party to lurk under mere “suspicion of right-wing extremism,” oh no. They announced suddenly and with much establishment fanfare that they had determined the AfD to be “confirmed right-wing extremists.”

Faeser and her goons hoped this new designation would edge the AfD more firmly into Evil Nazi Fascist Hitler territory in the popular mind, thereby preparing the way for banning the party. According to the dumb Gender Studies-tier retards unassailable and unbiased experts of the BfV, the AfD were more definitely Evil, more definitely Nazi, more definitely Fascist and more definitely Hitler than ever before. They had such clear proofs of all the Evil Nazi Fascist Hitlerism lurking within the AfD that they could not even reveal them. Doing so, Faeser said, would compromise the mysterious sources and methods of her highly sophisticated political spy agency. Instead, the Interior Ministry leaked a classified dossier supporting the upgrade to sympathetic media like Der Spiegel, and these media promptly published earnest articles telling us all how absolutely Fascist and Evil and Nazi and Hitler all the secret evidence showed the AfD to be, because trust us bro.

What happened next is that somebody leaked the full 1,000-page dossier to the alternative news outlets Cicero and NiUS, both of which promptly published the full .pdf. It turned out to be one of the stupidest and most trivial documents I’ve ever read. The supersecret hyperspy sources tapped by the BfV? Google and social media posts. The supersecret hyperspy methods used by the BfV? Compiling interminable lists of potentially untoward or possibly impolite things AfD politicians uttered in googlable documents or on social media. It was so bad that almost overnight the dossier destroyed much of the momentum for an AfD ban – exactly the opposite of what its architects had intended. Even many establishment figures quietly admitted what a travesty the whole thing had turned out to be.

NEVERTHELESS: The establishment moved quickly to capitalise on the new extremist designation. Various state governments began plotting to cleanse the civil service of AfD members on the grounds that they were affiliates of an officially “extremist” organisation. In Rheinland-Pfalz they even toyed with the idea of illegally excluding AfD candidates from running in local elections also on the basis of this bureaucratic designation. The Social Democrats began pushing to initiate ban proceedings against the AfD, a move that – if successful – would grant the left parties indefinite parliamentary majorities both nationally and across many state parliaments, amounting to a kind of legal coup and casting us into a new DDR-light regime.

Meanwhile, the AfD filed suit with the Administrative Court in Cologne to overturn their upgraded designation because it was so obviously dumb and unfounded. They also asked the court to prohibit the designation temporarily, while their primary lawsuit is pending – a long involved process that will take years. The Cologne judges released their unusually extensive 55-page decision on the temporary injunction yesterday. For the party-banning speech-repressing opinion-monitoring enthusiasts of Our Democracy, it is a disaster.

From the Cologne court’s press release:

The Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution (BfV) may not classify and treat the Alternative for Germany (AfD) as a confirmed right-wing extremist organisation until the conclusion of the main proceedings … The BfV must also refrain from publicly announcing such a classification …

In its decision today, the court has rejected the BfV’s assessment. We give the following reasons: According to the findings of the summary proceedings, there is sufficient certainty that the AfD houses some efforts directed against the free democratic basic order … These efforts, however, do not characterise the AfD such that its overall essence may be described as anti-constitutional.

That is very important.

Not only the AfD, but all political parties, have randos saying potentially or probably or even certainly anti-constitutional things.

To justify a ban, you need more than random people saying random things.

You need to show a) that the party is fundamentally opposed to the “free democratic basic order” (an ideological trinity consisting of human dignity, democracy and the rule of law), and b) that it exercises this opposition in an “aggressive” or “combative” manner. The BfV have hardly addressed b) at all, and their evidence has not convinced the court that a) applies.

To argue their case, the BfV seem to have positively emptied their archives, submitting not only the leaked 1,000-page dossier to the court, but also an additional raft of supporting materials running to 7,000 pages across 20 different binders and electronic files extending to 1.5 terabytes.

The court finds that some “anti-Muslim” demands formulated by the AfD in the course of the 2025 election campaign are contrary to the German Basic Law, because these would tend to vitiate “the equal practice of religion,” but the judges also find that these are insufficient to “establish the anti-constitutional character of the party as a whole.” The court further noted that the BfV “has not disclosed any intelligence information … even in court proceedings” relating to allegedly secret anti-constitutional plots within the AfD, which means that “we cannot assume to the detriment of [the AfD] that [the party] is pursuing such further plans internally.”

A significant prong of the constitutional protectors’ argument held that the AfD’s advocacy of “remigration” was itself openly unconstitutional. Importantly, the court completely disagreed:

… [N]o sufficient conclusions can be drawn from any plans pursued by [the AfD] … with regard to so-called remigration. The vague term “remigration” does not imply a concrete political goal in the sense of undifferentiated deportations … In the absence of a more concrete explanation of specific anti-constitutional intentions with respect to implementing a … remigration policy, such intentions are not apparent.

As I said, this is only a temporary ruling, but given the devastating wording of the court’s judgment, it seems unlikely that the judges in Cologne will ultimately uphold the “extremist” designation when to comes time to decide the main case some years from now. The constitutional protectors may also appeal this injunction, but they would be unlikely to win, and also too I think there is a substantial chance that their ultimate boss, Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt (CSU), directs them to let this go. Whatever happens, the case for banning the AfD has taken a major, perhaps a fatal, blow. The fundamental problem this whole time has been that the AfD programme is pretty much constitutionally unassailable. Those who want to ban the party have had to hope against hope that the constitutional protectors could unearth secret AfD Nazi plans via their super advanced espionage methods. Instead they’ve spent years copying and pasting Facebook posts and they have basically nothing.

This case converges with other evidence suggesting that the German state – while it may presently wish to ban the opposition and repress its critics – increasingly lacks the internal resolve and coherence for this project.

I’ll write more about that tomorrow; today’s adventures (see below) interrupted my routine, but I wanted to get this news out there as soon as possible.

The first time Iran found itself in a major regional war with Donald Trump about to enter the White House, was April 13, 2024 when as part of escalating tensions with Israel, “Iran began an attack on Israel by launching dozens of suicide drones” on April 13, 2024. That said, it is s stretch to call that particular weapons exchange war, as both sides just wanted some theatrical appreciation rather than rearranging the borders of the middle East. What is more notable, is that the war started in the deep dark of a Saturday morning (April 13, 2024) when global markets were closed, and the only traded asset was crypto in general, and bitcoin in particular. The kneejerk reaction was sharply lower. 

The second time Iran found itself in a major regional war with Donald Trump (already in) the White House, was a little over a year later, on June 21-22, when in a much more serious and aggressive attack, Operation Midnight Hammer saw airstrikes, cruise missile attacks and B-2 bombers drop Massive Ordnance Penetrators on three key Iranian nuclear sites: Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan, all of which were quickly destroyed As a result, Iran’s nuclear enrichment process was effectively (and literally) buried under a mountain, and then the major regional conflict was again promptly forgotten. What is most notable, is that that war, too, started in the deep dark of a Saturday morning (June 21, 2025) when global markets were closed, and the only traded asset was crypto in general, and bitcoin in particular. The kneejerk reaction this time too, was sharply lower. 

Fast forward to today, when in the most serious war between Iran and a coalition of US and Israel forces in decades, Iran was promptly “decapitated” as all of its top generals and IRGC personnel were killed, while also losing its spiritual head, the Ayatollah, who had led the country ever since those fateful days in 1978 when Shah Mohammed Reza-Pahlavi was replaced with Ruhollah Ayatollah, and an American embassy and its occupants were taken hostage. This conflict started shortly after the sun rose, as the attacking generals thought a night attack which everyone – and especially Iran – would expect as it is “meant” to be surprise would have little impact. They were right, and Ayatollah Khomeini was promptly vaporized. Where there was similarity to previous conflicts is that this one too started early on Saturday, when global markets were closed. Well, not all: bitcoin was trading. And, like the previous two most recent regional wars, Bitcoin’s kneejerk reaction this time too, was sharply lower… but not for long, and shortly after it emerged that Ayatollah Khameini was dead and most of the army leaders had been killed, bitcoin – that weekend trading risk barometer – staged a remarkable rebound and was actually trading well above where it was before the currency sold off shortly after midnight on Saturday East Coast time.

Which begs the question: is the conflict now effectively over and is Wall Street getting the all-green signals? 

This is also the question asked by Academy Securities strategist Peter Tchir, who in a late Saturday note – when most of the latest development were already known –  wrote that he remains comfortable buying the market.

He explains why below: 

A lot was priced in. Brent has gone for $60 late December to $72 on Friday. Some of that move in energy prices likely tied to cold winter in America, etc, but away from the risk of conflict, the market was positioned for selling off. So far the “bad” news on the oil front should have been largely priced in.

• Insurance for shipping in region cancelled.  pretty standard
• Limited or no transit in the Strait of Hormuz. Should be expected

The “good” news on the oil front is that nothing has happened that would prevent transit if there is an off ramp. 

China supposedly has large stockpiles of crude and the U.S. in good shape, so a short disruption (a week or so) should have minimal impact. Spot oil contracts might go as high as $80 but am not expecting a big move out the curve

Furthermore, while it is early, so far intelligence and military in action have delivered at high levels for the US and Israel. Not so much for Iran.  Maybe they have another round up their sleeve, but according to Tchir, :”their calculus should be adjusted – to seek off ramp“

With confirmations stating that the leadership has been hit hard, what is the thought process of those assuming command:

You know that Isreal and the U.S. probably know who you are and possibly where you will be. That cannot be comforting.

Their weapon systems have performed as advertised (or maybe even better than expected).

Your weapons, like in prior attacks, and like Russia has experience, have not been as good as expected.

Which brings us to Bitcoin, which Tchir – and anyone else – views as a risk-on type of asset in this situation, has now recovered from small early loss to slightly highere. 

Putting it all together, Tchir – looking through the fog of war – says that he is optimistic for a “risk on” start to the week, while may sound a little bit callous, which is also why the Academy Strategist notes that “we can only hope that the events in the Middle East lead to a peaceful resolution, putting the Iranian people on a better path to prosperity and freedom, while minimizing the loss of life for everyone in the region.”