Robert Edwards, the inventor of the “Squatty Potty” and a contestant on the show “Shark Tank”, has been charged with the possession of a digital hoard of child pornography materials including videos and images. 

Edwards, 50, was arrested for allegedly buying and receiving countless images of child sexual abuse between March 2021 and November 2025, the U.S. Attorney’s Office in the District of Utah announced Monday.  The entrepreneur was indicted by a federal grand jury Feb. 10 and arrested Feb. 12 in Washington County, Utah.

In March 2021, an undercover FBI agent joined a group chat used to trade child abuse materials. In the group chat, there was a meeting room where members viewed a collection of the horrific content being streamed, federal authorities detailed.  Participants, including a user later identified as Edwards, were visible in the meeting, according to the DOJ. 

In May 2025, FBI agents also learned that Edwards may have purchased additional illicit materials through his PayPal account, which was flagged for four suspicious transactions.  In November, law enforcement executed a search warrant on Edwards and his home and confiscated multiple devices that “contained videos and images of child sexual abuse material,” some of which was downloaded only two weeks prior, officials alleged.

Edwards reportedly lives with his male partner and “co-parents” four children.  There is no information on their status, and he refers to them as his “step children”.  

Robert Edwards is best known for his appearance on Shark Tank with his mother, in which he pitched his idea for a foot rest designed to help people with bowel movements.  

Interestingly, one member of the Shark Tank board was noted as saying there was “something” about Edwards that she did not trust because of his odd and shifty behavior.  Her observation might have been more prescient than she realized. 

Squatty Potty is also known for cutting ties with Kathy Griffin as a spokesperson after she released her infamous promotional pictures in which she is seen holding a fake severed head that looks like Donald Trump.  The decision was a company move and not a unilateral firing by Edwards, though he noted that Griffin “crossed the line”.

Edwards ultimately sold Squatty Potty in 2021 and walked away a multi-millionaire.

Edwards is also know for his advocacy work with an NGO called “Equality Utah”, the largest LGBT youth advocacy group in the state.  He received an “Excellence In Advocacy” award from them in 2017 and would go on to serve on their board.  It should be noted that high profile pedophiles are often found working within NGOs that deal with children’s issues; LGBT children’s groups are particularly targeted. 

After the news of Edwards’ arrest and the nature of the charges, Squatty Potty’s viral “unicorn poop” commercial takes on even more suspicious undertones.

In 2019, he was a keynote speaker at the Utah LGBTQ+ Chamber of Commerce’s annual “Gay-La” event (a membership drive and networking gala supporting the state’s LGBT business community) and participated in their LGBTQ+ Economic Summit, sharing his business story in an LGBT-focused context.

In a 2020 interview with St. George News following the Supreme Court’s Bostock v. Clayton County decision (protecting gay and transgender workers from discrimination), Edwards publicly supported equal protection under the law for LGBTQ individuals.  

His recent arrest is likely to bring into question his previous advocacy work and his true motives.    

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Hillary Clinton told members of Congress on Feb. 26 that she does not have knowledge about crimes carried out by the late sex offender Jeffrey Epstein and Ghislaine Maxwell.

“I had no idea about their criminal activities. I do not recall ever encountering Mr. Epstein. I never flew on his plane or visited his island, homes, or offices,” the former first lady and secretary of state said in her opening statement to the House Oversight Committee.

Clinton said she was horrified to learn about the crimes and was disappointed that Epstein only received 13 months in prison in 2008 after pleading guilty to soliciting a minor for prostitution.

Clinton’s husband, former President Bill Clinton, was also slated to testify to the panel in its investigation into Epstein. The Clintons agreed to testify after the House of Representatives was prepared to hold them in contempt for originally declining to answer questions on the matter.

[ZH: of course, some might say she’s a COMPLETE LIAR (that no reasonable prosecutor who likes breathing would prosecute)…]

“Hillary Clinton: ‘I do not recall ever encountering Mr. Epstein.’”

Meanwhile, Epstein once said Hillary Clinton was “much prettier in person.”

No recollection, though. pic.twitter.com/xY3XnPCbpp

— Gina Milan (@ginamilan_) February 26, 2026

Epstein died by suicide in federal prison in 2019 while awaiting trial on sex trafficking charges. Maxwell was sentenced to 20 years in prison in 2022 for conspiring with Epstein to sexually abuse young girls.

Bill Clinton flew on Epstein’s plane in 2002 and 2003, according to flight logs and photographs. Court documents stated he went to Epstein’s island, where authorities say Epstein repeatedly abused minors.

Maxwell told Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanche in 2025 that she was friends with Bill Clinton and that the former president never went to the island.

“He never, absolutely never went. And I can be sure of that because there’s no way he would have gone. I don’t believe there’s any way that he would’ve gone to the island had I not been there,” she said. “Because I don’t believe he had an independent friendship, if you will, with Epstein.”

Epstein also went to the White House multiple times while Clinton was president. Maxwell also attended the wedding of the Clintons’ only daughter in 2010.

Bill Clinton’s spokesperson told New York Magazine in 2002, “Jeffrey is both a highly successful financier and a committed philanthropist with a keen sense of global markets and an in-depth knowledge of twenty-first-century science.”

A spokesperson for Bill Clinton said after Epstein was arrested by federal authorities that the former president “knows nothing about the terrible crimes Jeffrey Epstein pleaded guilty to in Florida some years ago, or those with which he has been recently charged in New York.”

The spokesperson said that the trips on Epstein’s plane included stops for Clinton Foundation work and that Bill Clinton briefly visited Epstein’s home in New York and met with Epstein in a Clinton office in the city.

“He’s not spoken to Epstein in well over a decade and has never been to Little St. James Island, Epstein’s ranch in New Mexico, or his residence in Florida,” the spokesperson added.

A letter from lawmakers to the Clintons said they wanted to question them, given their family’s past relationships with Epstein and Maxwell. Lawmakers also told Hillary Clinton, “Given your past service as Secretary of State, the Committee believes that you may have knowledge of efforts by the federal government to combat international sex trafficking operations of the type run by Mr. Epstein.”

“The American people have a lot of questions,” Rep. James Comer (R-Ky.), chairman of the House Oversight Committee, told reporters in Washington as lawmakers prepared to question the Clintons. “To my knowledge, the Clintons haven’t answered very many, if any, questions about their knowledge or involvement with Epstein and Maxwell.”

Comer said that no one is accusing the Clintons at this time of wrongdoing but that the committee is trying to find answers regarding Epstein, including how he accumulated so much wealth and whether he worked for the government.

After yesterday’s mediocre 5Y auction, we had just one coupon sale left: 7Y paper at 1pm today. And with today’s wholesale post-Nvidia, risk-off move it was expected to be an easy sale, which is more or less what it was.

The Treasury sold $44 billion in 1 Year notes at a high yield of 3.790%, down sharply from 4.018% last month, and the lowest since November. The auction also priced on the screws with the When Issued, which was also at 3.790%. It followed 5 auctions in the past 6 months which tailed so relatively speaking, an improvement. 

The bid to cover was 2.498, up from 2.454 and also over the recent average of 2.461.

The internals were a bit weaker, with Indirects awarded 63.6%, down from 66.9% in January but above the recent average of 62.6%. And with Directs taking down 26.91%, which was right in line with the six-auction average, Dealers were left with 10.4%, a small drop from last month’s 10.9%. 

Overall, this was a solid, if hardly, stellar auction, with average foreign demand and mediocre metrics, which in itself is rather surprising since the money from the equity selling has to be going somewhere and bonds should be seeing more demand, if only in theory. 

The U.S. State Department has lifted its “shelter in place” alerts for Americans after Mexican special forces, aided by U.S. intelligence, killed a top drug cartel boss, sparking cartel-related chaos across at least one key tourism town in the third-world country just south of the U.S. southern border.

Helicóptero del ejército mexicano operando ayer en Puerto Vallarta (Jalisco) contra el Cartel Jalisco Nueva Generación.
Instagram/Cornett pic.twitter.com/ADcgqnusdW

— Niporwifi © (@niporwifi) February 23, 2026

On Sunday, Mexican Army Special Forces carried out a decapitation strike against the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG), killing Nemesio “El Mencho” Oseguera Cervantes. The operation triggered dangerous cartel-related uprisings shortly after that, which extended into Monday and Tuesday, with 250 blockades recorded, many of them in Jalisco state.

Footage from Puerto Vallarta, the popular tourist town in Jalisco, was on the front cover of many major U.S. newspapers and sent a chill through the American travel industry that funnels tourists into the region. What Americans saw was cartel gunmen torching vehicles and buildings in an immediate response to the death of El Mencho, reinforcing what everyone has known all along: Mexico is a third-world hellhole.

Officials say at least 62 people died in the raid that caught “El Mencho,” longtime head of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel, and violence that followed. This @vantortech satellite image of yesterday shows thick smoke across Puerto Vallarta, Mexico. More in thread.… pic.twitter.com/Cztlz8IWGY

— Christiaan Triebert (@trbrtc) February 23, 2026

Assessing the impact on the US travel industry is Goldman analyst Lizzie Dove, who found the biggest effect has been on airlines, not cruises or hotels.

For airlines, most U.S. carriers have limited exposure to Mexico. For most, less than 3% of their flights in early 2026 are tied to the country. But if travelers stay cautious, some may shift their plans to safer destinations, including Florida, the Caribbean, and other parts of Latin America.

Focusing on the airline impact, here’s an excerpt from Dove’s note:

Bottom line: There were significant cancellations in select airports following the events in Mexico over the weekend; however, these cancellations were in-line with or lower than cancellations at airports impacted by Winter Storm Hernando. Separate from the cancellations over the last couple days, the larger question in our view is if there will be a lasting impact on demand. We take no view on the length of the unrest in Mexico. While not directly comparable, we note that other recent geopolitical events have had a short-lived impact, if any, on demand for travel. As such, while there could be an impact from recent events, we could see the dissipation of demand headwinds fairly quickly if the situation is resolved (Volaris, one of the largest airlines in Mexico, resumed normal operations Monday 2/23). In the short-term, Sun Country has the highest exposure to Mexico, with ~10% of 1Q 2026 capacity scheduled to fly to various airports in Mexico. We note that February and March in particular represent seasonally high demand months for North to South travel to warm weather destinations as various regions of the US have spring breaks over this period. It is possible that some trips planned for Mexico could instead be re-booked to a domestic warm weather destination or elsewhere in Latin America/the Caribbean if there are lingering concerns around Mexico over the next couple months.

Cancellations were elevated on Sunday 2/22 and Monday 2/23, but largely driven by Winter Storm Hernando. On Sunday 2/22 and Monday 2/23, the industry saw an elevated level of cancellations, some of which were related to the ongoing unrest in Mexico, but with the majority driven by Winter Storm Hernando (see Exhibit 1 and Exhibit 2). For example, JetBlue had significantly higher cancellations than its peers on 2/22, with 44% of flights canceled vs. its competitors canceling less than 10% of flights, but JetBlue has

Recent geopolitical events showed short-lived impact to demand. While not directly comparable, if we look to two recent events we see potential for limited lasting impact to air travel demand. For example, while likely complicated by the broader post-pandemic recovery, following the events in Russia/Ukraine in February 2022, global air travel continued to recover (see Exhibit 5) and Delta had not seen any impact for travel to broader Europe as of April 2022. Following the events on October 7, 2023 in the Middle East, there was similarly a limited lasting impact to air travel (Exhibit 6; year-over-year global industry air traffic growth continued to improve following October 2023, and while there was a step-down in Middle Eastern air traffic growth in November and December 2023, January 2024 saw a marked step-up in traffic growth. We acknowledge each event may be different, and look for evidence of whether any potential demand headwind will similarly dissipate fairly quickly.

Mexico exposure is

Dove’s view on the impact of hotels appears limited for now, but if travel warnings last, demand could weaken over time. Only a small share of the rooms at major hotel companies are in the affected Mexican states. Hyatt has the highest exposure, while Choice has very little. Hyatt could also soften the blow by moving travelers to its other all-inclusive resorts outside of Mexico.

As for cruises, she said the impact is also minor so far. Only a few Puerto Vallarta port stops have been canceled. Cruise lines do have some Mexico exposure, but many itineraries include multiple destinations, which helps reduce the risk if one Mexican port becomes problematic.

Related: 

• Cartel Kingpin “El Mencho” Dead. Here’s A Shortlist Of Possible Successors

• Mexico’s Cartel Decapitation Strike Fallout: “Not The End, Just The Beginning”

The full travel-impact note is available to Professional Subscribers on our new Marketdesk.ai portal.

Authored by Stacy Robinson via The Epoch Times,

A federal judge ruled on Feb. 25 that the government cannot deport illegal immigrants to so-called third countries without giving them “meaningful notice” and an opportunity to dispute their removal.

In Wednesday’s ruling, Massachusetts District Judge Brian Murphy (nominated by President Biden on March 21, 2024) declared unlawful two policy memos, one by Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and another by the Department of Homeland Security (DHS). Those memos said that if the U.S. had received credible diplomatic assurances from a third country that deportees would not face persecution or torture, they could be sent there without any extra procedures.

“[DHS] has adopted a policy whereby it may take people and drop them off in parts unknown … and, ‘as long as the Department doesn’t already know that there’s someone standing there waiting to shoot … that’s fine,’” he wrote.

“It is not fine, nor is it legal.”

Murphy ruled that federal regulations required that illegal immigrants be deported to either their home country, or another country as designated by an immigration judge.

They also have the right to “raise a country-specific claim” against being deported to a third country, he wrote.

The case started last March, when four plaintiffs filed a class-action suit after the government tried to deport them to countries other than their home nation, without notice or opportunity to object to their destination.

In April, the judge expanded the class of plaintiffs to include anyone with a final removal order to a third country after Feb. 18, 2025.

Murphy blocked those removals on April 18, but on May 21 he found the government had violated his order by removing six individuals to South Sudan in Africa. He ordered the government to provide them with lawyers and hearings on whether they were afraid to live in that country.

In the meantime, the federal government appealed to the Supreme Court, which stayed Murphy’s order in June.

In its stay application, the government said the lower court proceedings were “usurping the Executive’s authority over immigration policy,” and “ wreaking havoc on the third country removal process.” It characterized some of the deportees as “criminal aliens who had been in the country for years or decades after receiving final orders of removal, despite having committed horrific crimes,” including sexual assault and murder.

The same day the Supreme Court stayed his April ruling, Murphy issued an order saying his May directive was still in effect, since the government had not included it in their petition. The justices had to issue a follow-up clarification saying it had intended to invalidate both of the judge’s rulings.

In a brief, unsigned order, the majority said Murphy was attempting to use his May directive—granting the deportees lawyers and hearings—to enforce the ruling from April, which he could not do.

Justice Elena Kagan, in a short opinion, noted that she didn’t want to halt Murphy’s decision from last April.

“But a majority of this Court saw things differently, and I do not see how a district court can compel compliance with an order that this Court has stayed.”

Murphy has suspended his own Feb. 25 ruling for 15 days, giving the government time to ask an appeals court to halt it for a longer period. He wrote that he didn’t think the government’s legal argument was strong, but noted that the Supreme Court had stayed his previous, temporary block on the DHS policy.

“Ultimately, this Court could be missing something in the final analysis,” he wrote.

Bloomberg’s multi-day storytelling began late Monday morning with a report that a “large rival suitor” and other firms were circling PayPal in a potential takeover bid. By late Tuesday in the cash session, the outlet reported that payment processor Stripe had expressed interest in the platform.

Now, just moments ago, Semafor reports “PayPal isn’t currently in talks to sell itself — to Stripe or anyone else — and has been working for months with bankers to prepare for a potential activist campaign or unwanted takeover bid.”

Semafor’s report, like Bloomberg’s, was based on people familiar with the matter, which makes the gap between the two reports very notable.

Here’s more from Semafor:

The process followed a steep decline in PayPal shares that executives worried could leave the company vulnerable, the people said. Bankers began working with PayPal under former CEO Alex Chriss, who was ousted earlier this year. Bloomberg reported that Stripe is considering an acquisition of all or parts of PayPal this week. PayPal declined to comment. Incoming CEO Enrique Lores officially starts next week.

Bloomberg’s reporting sent PayPal shares in New York up nearly 19% in the first half of the week. However, those gains are beginning to be eroded by the Semafor report, with the stock down about 4% as of 11:25 ET.

Who to believe: Bloomberg or Semafor?

Last night’s discussion featuring Rick Rule, Bill Fleckenstein, and Erik Townsend covered the macro landscape from hard assets to energy markets and nuclear policy.

Below are highlights from Rule’s remarks. (We recommend readers listen to Fleckenstein and Townsend’s full comments in the complete debate, linked at the bottom.)

Gold: “I Have No Interest In Selling”

Rule made clear he views gold not as a trade, but as monetary insurance.

Nominal yields on Treasuries offer little protection if purchasing power continues to erode.

“Owning the U.S. 10-year Treasury getting paid 4.1%, 4.2% in a currency where I think the real deterioration of the purchasing power is limping along to some number more like eight doesn’t make me feel comfortable.”

Rule pointed to structural fiscal imbalances, debt, deficits, and what he estimates at roughly $120 trillion in unfunded entitlement liabilities as the core risk. Policymakers can either default in real terms or inflate away the burden.

“I think they take door two.”

Until he sees a credible political resolution to debt and entitlement obligations and what he considers genuinely positive real yields on fiat savings products, Rule said he has “no interest in selling” his gold.

“Gold for me is a savings product.”

Rick Rule: “Let me tell you what would cause me to sell my gold…” pic.twitter.com/pdNgNQ62uk

— ZeroHedge Debates (@zerohedgeDebate) February 26, 2026

Oil: Short-Term Oversupply, Long-Term Capital Shortage

On oil, Rule was nuanced.

“I believe in the very, very near term that oil is ahead of itself,” he said, citing geopolitical headlines and “news traders in the market.” For the next year to 18 months, he sees a “plurality of supply over demand,” reflecting a softer global economy.

But beneath that near-term slack, he sees a longer-term issue: underinvestment.

Rule estimates global underfunding of sustaining capital in the oil industry exceeds “a billion dollars a day.” In U.S. shale, where “75, 80% of the net present value of the well is 18 months,” reduced reinvestment eventually constrains output.

Ccapital responses are delayed but cyclical. The post-COVID rebound saw oil shoot from $20 oil to $90 after investment froze. Rule suggested that if today’s capital discipline persists, the industry could face a production problem by 2028–2029.

While “nowhere near as bullish” as he was previously, he added: “I still feel quite good about the sector for the five-year time frame.”

pic.twitter.com/qkksySf31R

— ZeroHedge Debates (@zerohedgeDebate) February 26, 2026

Uranium: From “Wanted Poster” To Subsidies

“Five years ago in the uranium industry, I expected to see a picture of myself in a post office wall with a caption wanted. Now the same morons want to subsidize me.”

Tthe key development is not futuristic reactor technology but politics. Even conventional reactor builds, if pursued at scale, can lower costs through repetition, as demonstrated by China’s serial construction model.

While Rule cautioned that demand growth 10–15 years out does little for present net asset value calculations, he emphasized that the policy turn itself is meaningful. It is the primary catalyst and one that will likely lead to a faster pace of reactor construction… which should reward uranium mining investors or anyone that uses electricity.

“Reliable, abundant, baseload power that doesn’t generate carbon… talk about the well-being of humankind.”

pic.twitter.com/dV4e2WGNfm

— ZeroHedge Debates (@zerohedgeDebate) February 26, 2026

For the full exchange, including commentary from Bill Fleckenstein and Erik Townsend, listen to the complete debate below.

https://t.co/vkouSL7UhD

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) February 25, 2026

US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner held more than three hours of negotiations with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi in Geneva on Thursday in a push to secure a breakthrough on a nuclear deal, with the Omani foreign minister saying the talks will resume later after a pause.

It’s being reported that the message Kushner and Witkoff deliver to Trump after the meeting will shape the president’s decision on whether the launch a military attack on Tehran or refrain for implementation of a permanent deal. While Trump declared in Tuesday’s State of the Union that he prefers diplomacy, he also presented a direct case for war – something which remains deeply unpopular among the American people.

In these and other indirect talks, Omani Foreign Minister Badr al-Busaidi relayed messages between the sides, and then another format has involved direct discussions between US and Iranian negotiators.

Iran presented its long-awaited draft proposal for a nuclear agreement, though not much in the way of details have been revealed. International Atomic Energy Agency Director General Raphael Grossi was among those who participated in the negotiations.

Omani Foreign Minister Badr al-Busaidi, the main mediator, said of the Thursday talks that “we’ve been exchanging creative and positive ideas” and “hope to make more progress.”

Meanwhile, a former head of the IAEA has warned that all wars, “including ‘wars of choice’ have horrific costs” as fears of major conflict between the US and Iran escalate.

Reports that Thursday talks stalled after US side demanded zero enrichment…

🔴🔴 Breaking// Diplomatic sources say the Araghchi–Witkoff talks in Geneva stalled after the U.S. side insisted on “zero enrichment” and the transfer of all 60% enriched uranium to Washington.

Reuters, citing a senior Iranian official, reports that the U.S. also raised…

— Ahmad Samadi (@AhmadSamadi1974) February 26, 2026

“The US is intensifying the drumbeat of war against Iran, with zero explanation of the non-existent legal authority to use force and zero evidence of an ‘imminent threat’ other than hypothetical scenarios based on possible future intentions,” Mohamed ElBaradei wrote on X.

“That is the reason for the restraints and limitations established by international norms… This is Iraq redux … it seems we never learn,” he emphasized.

Fresh reporting in The Wall Street Journal has laid out the main US sticking points:

In the talks, now under way in Geneva, the U.S. negotiators were expected to make clear Iran must dismantle its three main nuclear sites—at Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan—and deliver all of its remaining enriched uranium to the U.S., officials said.

They were also expected to insist that any nuclear deal must last forever and not sunset—the way restrictions rolled off over time under a nuclear pact negotiated under the Obama administration that Republicans have long said was too weak. Trump pulled out of that deal, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, in his first term, reimposing tough sanctions on Iran.

Here the demands US brought to Iran in Geneva:

1) Destroy all 3 nuclear sites: Fordow, Natanz, Isfahan

2) Deliver all enriched uranium to US

3) No sunset clauses

4) Zero enrichment, but can keep Tehran reactor

5) Minimal sanctions relief up front; more if Iran compliant

— Alex Ward (@alexbward) February 26, 2026

These are the very nuclear sites that the US said time and again it “obliterated” during the June war. This comes off Vice President J.D. Vance just the day prior stating that the White House “has seen evidence” that Iran is attempting to build a nuclear weapon.

So Washington is going from proclaiming Iran’s nuclear sites were obliterated to now saying there’s evidence of the Iranians trying to clandestinely build a nuclear warhead. Of course, no evidence or so much as a reference to some kind of intelligence report has been presented to the world.

⚠️ ‘We’ve seen evidence’ Iran is trying to rebuild nuclear weapons says @VP JD Vance.

We’ve heard this exact line before…

Colin Powell at the UN, February 5 2003:
‘We’ve seen evidence’ of Iraq’s mobile bioweapons labs & WMDs.

We all remember what happened next. Turned… pic.twitter.com/O7KiyAsiwx

— Hala Jaber (@HalaJaber) February 25, 2026

There are indeed mounting concerns that history is about to repeat itself, but this time there’s possibly many more American troops in harm’s way, given the significant reach and capabilities of Iran’s ballistic missiles and long-range drones.

* * * 

And, well, which is it?

Secretary Rubio said Iran is *not* enriching uranium right now. That seems to contradict the description of Iran’s nuclear program made on Fox over the weekend by US envoy Witkoff pic.twitter.com/uEFvkG1ZqV

— Margaret Brennan (@margbrennan) February 26, 2026

By Michael Every of Rabobank

One Battle After Another

US and Iranian negotiators meet in Geneva today to hear Tehran’s final offer but reports of what they have to say suggests we should prepare for the worst even if Iran sees a “good outlook” for today’s talks. The Kan news agency claims it will only agree to lower uranium enrichment from 60% to 3.67% for seven years, won’t hand over previously enriched material, dismantle the ballistic missile program President Trump just stated can already hit Europe and will soon be able to reach the US, and won’t stop its support for regional terror proxies.

US negotiator Witkoff, seen by critics as a soft touch, says a nuclear deal should last indefinitely while the above is a rehash of the JCPOA Trump spent years deriding (and whose backers often fail to note coincided with Iran processing uranium far beyond the agreed limits in secret underground bunkers). Indeed, VP Vance claimed there’s evidence Iran is trying to rebuild its nuclear program, which provides a US casus belli. It’s already imposed new sanctions on it.

In terms of the framing, Politico claims White House officials believe “the politics are a lot better” if Israel strikes Iran first, which would allow the admin to sell a defensive action in support of an ally. That’s unlikely to be an obstacle to action as soon as Indian PM Modi, who yesterday addressed the Knesset to stand firmly behind Israel “at this moment and beyond”, is wheels up to home later today. Also note the US Navy fleet in Bahrain has taken to sea to avoid a potential Pearl Harbor scenario, and another 12 F-22s are about to leave the UK heading east, joining 11 already there. Pay additional attention to Iran’s threat to escalate if attacked, breaking precedent not to do so regionally beyond Israel and/or token efforts: this is not the same playbook as the past.

This week also saw reported concerns an attack could involve US casualties and deplete munition stockpiles needed against contingencies in Asia. It would be a shocking error if either thought wasn’t front of mind before military pressure began: that points to underlying confidence in what the US has in store, and Iran doesn’t, or a gamble. Yet at this point the US cannot retreat without losing crucial global deterrence power: Iran is a military minnow compared to the States and any stand down would see supplies of Chinese weapons to Tehran step up so a repeat US exercise in years to come would be far more risky and/or unlikely.

In short, the US may be hoping to flip Iran into its camp via regime change. That would be a stunning geopolitical coup. Yet things could go wrong on multiple fronts, which could prove the coup de grace for much of what Trump is trying to achieve on them all.

One other thing needs to be underlined: US success would entrench Trumpism and demolish planned global alternatives; yet failure would do nothing to return ‘rules-based order’ or a benign free-trade backdrop for under-armed and over-dependent ‘middle powers’. It would instead open a Pandora’s Box of instability and volatility across geographies and sectors. As just one example, the IMEC (India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor) Modi fulsomely backed in Israel –which will initially involve Cyprus, Greece, and likely Italy, Bulgaria, and Romania– can hardly thrive with a destabilised or antagonised Iran at its centre. There’s a lot more for markets to think about than oil and gas, important and volatile as they are (as the Saudis boost oil output and exports for an Iran attack contingency, and Iran has ramped up oil tanker loadings for the same reason).

US-Ukraine discussions will also continue in Geneva today: it’s unclear if we will see any breakthrough there either given Russia also needs to sign off – and again note talks are happening in Europe, without Europe. Markets don’t seem to be focusing on that dynamic vs the so-called ‘Sell US’ trend, but in the long run it matters. Also note Hungary’s Orbán has deployed troops to guard energy sites over an alleged Ukraine threat to them.

It’s hardly quiet elsewhere: Cuba sunk a US vessel that had strayed into its waters, killing four Americans; Afghanistan threatened Pakistan and accused the latter of supporting ISIS; and UK PM Starmer’s controversial Chagos deal descended into chaos, with a minister telling MPs the process has been paused, then No 10 and the Foreign Office saying it’s still proceeding.

In geoeconomics, the USTR underlined that the US aims to keep China tariffs steady in a 35-50% range ahead of the Xi-Trump meeting, while the universal tariff will be hiked from 10% to 15% “where appropriate.” The USTR also underlined the US wants a deal with Canada where it imposes some sectoral tariffs –as Canada long has on the US– and Ottawa agrees to prevent transshipment from China and Vietnam, etc.; that’s as the Chinese press suggest threatening Canada with a USMCA exit may push it into Beijing’s arms “as a hedge.” Which would then threaten North American geopolitics/economics being dragged through a hedge backwards. Chancellor Merz called for rebalancing Germany’s “unhealthy” trade ties with China. ‘How?’ is the question, as some note that many of the German CEOs travelling with him are still keen on shifting their domestic manufacturing to China and exporting it home from there.

Crucially, Zimbabwe imposed a ban on all exports of all raw minerals and lithium concentrate, as it wants crucial midstream processing to be done domestically to help it move up the value-added ladder in our new resource-centric global great game. Who will respond to that faster – China or the US? (Europe is not yet being mentioned in the mix.) Unrelated, the CME had to halt trading on its flagship metals market for more than an hour again yesterday due to “technical” issues. That does speak to how what we once thought was the global architecture is rapidly breaking down.

In AI space, the Pentagon reportedly took its first step toward blacklisting Anthropic; China’s DeepSeek is to withhold its latest AI model from US chipmakers including Nvidia, an interesting reversal; Canada told OpenAI to boost safety measures or be forced to by the government; and further upstream, France and Sweden are pushing to kill the mechanism to pay for massive EU grid upgrades needed to run AI at scale, among other things.

In the background, higher defence spending helped lift global debt to a record $348 trillion in 2025, according to the IIF –what could go wrong there on either defence or debt?– as the IMF urged Trump to change course on economic policy and stop cutting government jobs. Do these two agencies talk much? And against that backdrop, the Australian financial press today reports: ‘‘Astounding’: No affordable houses for first home buyers in any city’. Let’s just say some of us aren’t astounded by it at all.

Let’s finish with some related Fed-speak. Outgoing Atlanta Fed President Bostic yesterday published his farewell essay, in which he noted, “…the legal and rhetorical battles raging around the central bank right now have caused people across a wide cross-section of our population to begin to doubt the Fed’s independence. This is a major concern…. I won’t be part of the Fed when we see resolutions of these battles. I will be watching closely and hoping that wisdom grounded in the profound success of the US economy over many years prevails.”

Indeed, may wisdom –and good luck— prevail on multiple fronts. I fear we are going to need it.

When Special Counsel Jack Smith was investigating Donald Trump and people in his orbit, he ended up surveilling then-private-citizen Kash Patel, and Trump Chief of Staff Susie Wiles during 2022 and 2003.

Patel, now head of the FBI, told Reuters on Wednesday that he found out about this, and the FBI buried the files in a “Prohibited” category deep within the bureau’s computer system so they would be extremely difficult to find.

Getting down to it – the subpoenas targeted metadata showing who called whom and when – called ‘toll records,’ as well as a recorded a call between Susie Wiles and her lawyer – which her lawyer knew about and didn’t tell her, according to Fox News. Technically, under federal law, the government can obtain toll records with just a subpoena and no warrant. Investigators insist they routinely pull toll records from prominent figures to establish timelines and verify involvement. Smith himself testified to Congress that records seized from Republican senators during the January 6 probe helped confirm the timeline of events, that no content was captured, and that his office followed all legal requirements. 

Hours after Kash told Reuters his side of the story, insiders on team blue ran to the NY Times to let them know that Patel has sacked ‘about 10 FBI employees, some veteran agents’ as part of a “rolling revenge” tour on members of Smith’s team. 

The boys jumped into action:

The firings are part of a rolling barrage of retribution aimed at those who worked on the two federal prosecutions of Mr. Trump after his first term in office. They came hours after Kash Patel, the F.B.I. director, told Reuters that as part of the documents inquiry, the bureau had subpoenaed phone metadata for himself and Susie Wiles, currently the White House chief of staff. -NYT

To summarize:  

Team Trump: The Biden FBI surveilled Kash and Susie, then tried to hide it. 

Team NYT leakers: That was perfectly normal, Kash is drunk on power and getting revenge. 

And of course, the NYT assures us: 

Requests for phone records are common in complex criminal investigations to establish timelines and provide proof of communication. It remains unclear if the F.B.I.’s Trump-appointed leaders have accused employees of wrongdoing. In the past, they have not. In some cases, firings have violated procedural safeguards created to protect agents from politically motivated dismissal, according to agents and their lawyers.

But, wait a sec – the Reuters story had the ‘prohibited’ category aspect front and center…

And yet, NYT:

Which is odd, because the ‘prohibited’ designation made them deliberately difficult to locate and effectively shielded them from oversight. He says he discovered the records only after taking over as FBI director and has since eliminated the bureau’s ability to classify files that way. 

The seizure of the phone records was essentially covered up, which is not something you tend to do if it was all above board.

“It is outrageous and deeply alarming that the previous FBI leadership secretly subpoenaed my own phone records – along with those of now White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles — using flimsy pretexts and burying the entire process in prohibited case files designed to evade all oversight,” Patel said.

Smith’s spokesperson declined to comment on Wednesday about Patel’s specific allegations. Neither Joe Biden, former Attorney General Merrick Garland, nor former FBI Director Christopher Wray offered any comment for the story.

Nevertheless, the timeline raises its own questions.

Patel was called before a grand jury in 2022 after receiving limited immunity, during which he told prosecutors that Trump had declassified the documents taken to Mar-a-Lago. Wiles, for her part, became a close Trump adviser after his 2021 departure from office and eventually co-managed his 2024 presidential campaign. The record collection stretched into that campaign period.

Reuters could not independently establish what records the FBI obtained or who approved the subpoenas. The news agency also couldn’t ascertain if Patel or Wiles themselves were under investigation and, if so, why. Both were close to Trump during this period, as he built toward and ultimately launched his campaign to reclaim the presidency in 2024.

Both Patel and Wiles were known to have been interviewed by investigators as part of Smith’s investigation into Trump’s retention of classified documents following his first term.

In 2023, the FBI recorded a phone call between Wiles and her attorney, according to two FBI officials. Wiles’ attorney was aware that the call was being recorded, and consented to it, but Susie Wiles was not.

Smith was appointed special counsel in November 2022 to lead two federal probes: one into Trump’s handling of classified documents at Mar-a-Lago, and another into alleged efforts to “overturn” the 2020 election. He charged Trump with felonies in 2023 on both fronts. A federal judge dismissed the case involving the documents. Smith dropped the election interference appeal after Trump won the November 2024 election.

This latest bombshell comes in the wake of another stunning disclosure: internal FBI emails from around the time of the August 2022 raid on Mar-a-Lago, which appear to directly contradict the Biden administration’s insistence that then-President Joe Biden had no prior knowledge of the search of President Donald Trump’s home. The records also revealed just how hard the Justice Department leaned into the push for a search of Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate—despite concerns within the FBI about whether the evidence actually justified such an aggressive move.

Patel says he doesn’t know why investigators wanted his and Wiles’ records. That’s notable for someone who now sits atop the FBI. The bureau collected phone metadata on two of Trump’s closest allies — one of whom would go on to run his presidential campaign — and filed it away where it couldn’t easily be found.

Fox News reports that at least 10 FBI employees were fired on Wednesday in connection with this latest disclosure.