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Trapped: The Private Credit Exit Door Has Been Locked And Sealed Shut

Trapped: The Private Credit Exit Door Has Been Locked And Sealed Shut

Submitted by QTR’s Fringe Finance

While headlines are fixated on the Iran war and today’s “feel good” market rally, it is worth noting that beneath the surface, hours ago credit markets just got worse.

The latest example comes from Apollo, which has been forced to put the brakes on investor withdrawals from one of its largest retail focused funds, according to Bloomberg. Its $25 billion Apollo Debt Solutions vehicle is the latest private credit flaming bag of shit that has hit redemption limits after investors tried to pull more than double what the structure allows.

In other words, investors want out and are being treated like the old ladies on line at the South Philly Acme trying to buy liverwurst and chicken salad at the deli counter. That is, to say, they’re being told to take a number.

 

As I’ve been documenting, BlackRock recently hit similar limits in its own fund, and Morgan Stanley has been dealing with pro rated withdrawals at roughly the same levels. The difference now is scale and urgency. Apollo investors tried to redeem over 11% of the fund in one window. That’s a quintessential “race for the exits”.

And it was an Apollo executive himself who said just days ago that “all” marks in private credit are “wrong”. Oh, the irony.

The size with these funds is not trivial. These are not obscure niche strategies. These are $25 to $30 billion vehicles seeing real redemption pressure. That is large enough to matter, even if people would prefer to pretend otherwise. Combined, we’re already talking about stress on nearly $100 billion in assets.

It is worth remembering what these funds actually own. They are not sitting on piles of cash waiting to hand it back. They hold loans that are illiquid, often priced off internal models, and extended to companies that depend on continued access to financing. Those loans have counterparties. Those counterparties have their own problems. That is how stress spreads.


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When investors want liquidity and the assets cannot be sold without taking a hit, the system does not magically fix itself. It just stalls. Gating redemptions buys time, but it also quietly concentrates risk in a smaller pool of remaining investors. Not exactly the kind of feature you have McKinsey highlight in the $3,000 per hour, focus group approved marketing deck.

To put this in context, none of this should come as a surprise. What we are seeing in private credit is part of a broader unwind across lower quality lending that only looked stable when money was free. The buy now pay later space is probably the cleanest example. It scaled by extending tiny, unsecured loans to increasingly questionable borrowers, all funded by investors desperate for yield. I noted that here: The Private Credit Crisis Is Spreading

For a while that got labeled as innovation. In reality it was just credit being pushed further down the spectrum. If someone needs to finance a $40 discretionary purchase in installments, you are dealing with someone who either cannot or does not want to pay upfront, which tends to matter a lot more once rates go up.

That model worked beautifully when capital was abundant and refinancing was easy. It worked during years when liquidity was effectively unlimited. It works a lot less well when rates normalize and credit markets start behaving like actual credit markets again.

What we are seeing now is the same story repeating itself across different areas. First it showed up in names like Carvana, then in private credit, now in BNPL. Subprime lending with better branding is still subprime lending.

Funds like Stone Ridge’s LENDX made that painfully clear. Investors tried to exit and discovered that the structure would not let them.

 

Chart: FT

What has really changed here is psychology. For years private credit worked because investors believed it was stable, illiquid by design, and somehow insulated from the volatility you see in public markets. That belief is starting to crack. Once investors begin to question marks, liquidity, and exit mechanics at the same time, the whole pitch unravels quickly. The genie is out of the bottle now. People have seen gates, they have seen prorated withdrawals, and they have realized that “long term capital” often just means “you are not getting your money back when you want it.” Once that shift happens, it tends to feed on itself. More redemption requests lead to more restrictions, which leads to even more urgency to get out.

And historically, that kind of psychological break does not just stabilize on its own. It keeps going until something forces it to stop.

We are in the early stages of a credit cycle turn where liquidity is no longer hiding asset quality. Valuations across private markets look increasingly questionable, recovery assumptions are likely too optimistic, and investor confidence is starting to crack at the edges.

When multiple large funds start limiting withdrawals at the same time, that is not random. That is a signal.

And just to state the obvious, since it apparently needs to be said:

This is not the time to be buying dips in private credit, in my opinion.

The entire sales pitch for this asset class was built on steady income, low volatility, and the illusion of insulation from public markets. Now that liquidity is tightening, those assumptions are getting tested in real time. Marks start to matter, structure starts to matter, and suddenly that extra yield does not look quite as comforting.

There will be opportunities in credit eventually. There always are once things break enough. But those tend to show up after forced selling, after repricing, and after people stop pretending everything is fine.

We are not there yet.

Tracking the private credit meltdown:

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Tyler Durden
Wed, 03/25/2026 – 10:05

Days After Trump Delays Xi Summit, Chinese Carrier Unveils 101-Jet Airbus Deal

Days After Trump Delays Xi Summit, Chinese Carrier Unveils 101-Jet Airbus Deal

Days after President Donald Trump delayed a planned meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping over the now 26-day-old U.S.-Iran conflict, one of China’s top state-owned airlines unveiled a major narrow-body aircraft deal with Airbus.

China Eastern Airlines announced a $15.8 billion deal for 101 Airbus A320neo aircraft on Wednesday, with deliveries scheduled between 2028 and 2032.

The Shanghai-based carrier, which operates domestic and international passenger and cargo flights, said it negotiated prices well below list value and expects to fund the order through a mix of internal resources and external financing, with installment payments not expected to materially affect cash flow or operations.

The timing of the China Eastern Airlines-Airbus deal comes as a report earlier this month said China was expected to announce a massive deal for 500 Boeing 737 Max jets, with possible orders for 100 widebody aircraft, including 787 Dreamliners and 777Xs.

But the Trump-Xi summit was originally planned for March 31 through April 2. Trump requested that China delay it by “a month or so,” explaining, “We got a war going on. I think it’s important that I be here.”

As seen in past trade war flare-ups between the two superpowers, aircraft orders have often signaled goodwill, while restrictions on jet parts have signaled heightened tensions.

At the same time, surprisingly, Beijing is not angrier at Trump, even though the U.S.-Iran conflict has sparked a fuel crisis across Asia.

The key question now is whether a future Trump-Xi summit will still yield a Boeing jet deal.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 03/25/2026 – 07:45

Italy Cuts Fuel Taxes As Iran Crisis Drives Oil Higher; Germany Refuses Relief Despite Windfall

Italy Cuts Fuel Taxes As Iran Crisis Drives Oil Higher; Germany Refuses Relief Despite Windfall

Submitted by Thomas Kolbe

A robust market economy unfolds its maximum absorption capacity precisely during external shocks. In such cases, policymakers would essentially only need to sit still, as the storm clouds usually pass on their own—true to the principle that high prices are the cure for high prices. This, of course, only applies to energy markets if governments have not already removed themselves from the equation through grotesque political interventions long before the crisis.

For European economies, however, the opposite holds true. They are overregulated, fiscally overburdened, and structurally fragile systems that can barely deploy effective shock absorbers in the face of the Iran crisis. High energy prices hit relentlessly, and national policy responses now diverge sharply across competing European jurisdictions.

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni reacted swiftly to the tightening situation at the country’s gas stations. Following a cabinet decision on March 18, an immediate reduction in fuel excise taxes came into force via decree, applying to both gasoline and diesel. Prices are expected to fall by 25 cents per liter—across the board for households, businesses, and all market participants, according to government sources.

In Italy, policymakers appear to keep a close ear to the ground—attuned to the realities faced by citizens, businesses, and traders alike. In stark contrast to the government of Chancellor Friedrich Merz, Rome is opting for relief measures aimed at the private sector amid a crisis that is steadily eroding purchasing power. Meanwhile, Merz and his finance minister Lars Klingbeil are entangled in debates over tax increases—detached from the Hormuz disruption and largely disconnected from the realities of workers, commuters, and companies. Berlin’s fiscal apparatus appears self-referential and monotonous, advancing to the next act of its own tragicomedy.

Italy—once more statist in spirit than its northern rival—now acts swiftly, pragmatically, and decisively. The tax cut will initially remain in place for 20 days but is likely to be extended should the situation in the largely blocked Strait of Hormuz fail to improve. The Italian government thus demonstrates a capacity to act that is sorely lacking in Germany. Merz, by contrast, remains hesitant when it comes to rolling back state intervention—a committed statist who, even in a moment of acute crisis, fails to initiate the necessary fiscal steps to shield businesses and consumers from the gathering storm.

In Berlin, policymakers continue to deny both citizens and businesses the long-overdue relief from soaring fuel prices—despite the fact that roughly two-thirds of the price flows to the state through various taxes. Perhaps that is precisely why the issue is being postponed. What prevails in Berlin is a mentality of extraction, even as public coffers run dry. Spending cuts that could create room for relief are being avoided at all costs in the 2026 super-election year.

The situation in Rome is markedly different: In addition to cutting fuel taxes, the Italian government is granting tax credits to transport companies, directly linked to verified diesel consumption.

These credits are intended to relieve the logistics sector—one of the hardest hit by rising energy prices—and to prevent escalating costs and extreme volatility in energy markets from fully passing through to freight rates and consumer prices.

But the measures do not stop there. The Italian government has quickly assembled a broader package aimed at curbing potential price speculation at the pump. To prevent excessive markups, an anti-speculation mechanism is being introduced to detect and limit unjustified price increases.

In practice, this means that retail fuel prices will be tightly linked to actual movements in global crude oil prices, ensuring that unjustified markups are immediately suppressed.

Oil companies and gas station operators are required to regularly report their prices to authorities, which monitor the entire supply and distribution chain. Deviations from price movements justified by changes in crude oil markets may result in sanctions.

In the acute emergency triggered by the Iran crisis, the executive power of the Italian government proves to be a clear advantage. It can enact temporary measures swiftly via decree. The decision to cut fuel taxes is particularly notable given that Italy, like Germany, imposes very high fuel taxes. Up to 62% of gasoline prices and around 58% of diesel prices are collected by the state.

The importance of the tax cut became evident on commodity markets Thursday afternoon, when WTI crude rose to around $114 per barrel. The attack on Iran’s South Pars energy complex delivered another shock to the market overnight.

For Italians, there is hope that this acute crisis will ultimately lead to a broader realization—especially for Transport Minister Matteo Salvini and Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni—that relieving citizens of fuel costs is fundamentally the right approach. Mobility and affordable transport costs remain key competitive factors.

The state must learn to exercise restraint. A lean state protects citizens in times of crisis far better, thanks to its flexibility, than the bloated bureaucratic apparatus we know today. Though this is a conclusion Germany’s chancellor and finance minister would strongly dispute.

* * * 

About the author: Thomas Kolbe, a German graduate economist, has worked for over 25 years as a journalist and media producer for clients from various industries and business associations. As a publicist, he focuses on economic processes and observes geopolitical events from the perspective of the capital markets. His publications follow a philosophy that focuses on the individual and their right to self-determination.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 03/25/2026 – 07:20

Russia Launches Largest One-Day Drone Blitz Of Ukraine War

Russia Launches Largest One-Day Drone Blitz Of Ukraine War

At least seven people were killed in Ukraine on Tuesday after Russia launched a truly massive drone attack that’s said to be the largest of the four-year war. Counting both drones and cruise missiles, 979 warheads poured into Ukrainian airspace as diplomatic efforts at ending the war remain stalled and the world’s attention focused almost entirely on the US-Israeli war on Iran.  

Daylight death from above: A Russian Shahed drone above central Lviv (Reuters via New York Times)

Ukrainian officials said it began with an overnight attack comprising almost 400 long-range drones and 23 cruise missiles. Then, in a surprise twist, Russia unleashed even more in broad daylight. Startled Ukrainians were sent rushing to bomb shelters after alarms rang out around noon, as a swarm of 556 drones hammered cities across the western part of the country, including Lviv, Ternopil, Vinnytsia, Ivano-Frankivsk, Zhytomyr, Zaporizhzhia and Dnipro.

Ukraine’s air force claimed it shot most of them down, with only 15 of the daytime drones supposedly hitting anything. Ukraine said the impacted structures included apartment buildings, hospitals and a UNESCO World Heritage site. Video captured the dramatic sound and site of a Shahed drone as it descended and then smashed into a what is said to be a residential building in Lviv: 

Beyond the broad-daylight aspect of the attacks, the onslaught was noteworthy for its inclusion of the historic city of Lviv in the targeting package. To this point, Lviv — a city of 700,000 only 40 miles from Poland — had gone relatively unscathed compared to many other Ukrainian cities. The region’s governor, Maksym Kozytskyi struck an alarmed tone, posting, “The threat remains high. Stay in shelters!!!”

“Iranian Shaheds, modernized by Russia, hit a church in Lviv — it’s absolute perversion,” Ukrainian Prime Minister Volodymyr Zelensky said in his nightly national address. “The scale of today’s attack strongly indicates that Russia has no intention of really ending this war.” 

Efforts at ending the war have gone into a lull, as the United States and western European governments are fully occupied with the war on Iran, which threatens to plunge the world into an economic catastrophe that surpasses the Great Depression. Via social media, Ukrainian First Lady Olena Zelenska noted that global diversion of attention, writing, “Amid the news the world is drowning in every day, we will not let Ukrainian grief get lost, become just another statistic, a headline that will be casually skipped over.”

Though the war on Iran is depriving the Ukraine war of attention, it will likely have a profound effect on the battlefields, as surging energy prices will give a major shot in the arm to Russia’s armed forces, just as the war is set for its latest return to fighting season. Per reporting in Financial Times earlier in March, Russia is generating up to $150 million per day in extra budget revenue amid its increased taxes on oil exports to markets like China and India, with potential total added revenue reaching billions by the end of this month. 

...it’s just one more way Trump’s decision to start a regime-change war on Iran is looking like one of the greatest strategic blunders in US history. 

Tyler Durden
Wed, 03/25/2026 – 06:55

Oil Tumbles, Stocks Surge As Israeli TV Reports US Seeks ‘One Month Ceasefire’; Tehran Refuses Talks With ‘Backstabbers’

Oil Tumbles, Stocks Surge As Israeli TV Reports US Seeks ‘One Month Ceasefire’; Tehran Refuses Talks With ‘Backstabbers’

Summary

  • US seeks a one-month ceasefire with a framework to end the war, according to Israel Channel 12 reports; Telegraph says Iranians see Witkoff and Kushner as ‘backstabbers’

  • WSJ, Fox reporting 3,000 elite Army Airborne soldiers to be ordered to Middle East. Axios says US awaits Iran response to proposed Thursday peace talks. Trump says Iran has been destroyed “militarily”

  • Backchannel diplomacy vs skepticism: Abbas Araghchi reportedly signaled openness to negotiations with the US via envoy Steve Witkoff, but Israel has appeared cool on deal prospects or offramp.

  • Heavy exchange of fire and testing red lines: Iran continues missile and drone waves targeting Israel and US bases, amid reports of overnight airstrikes on military and gas infrastructure near Isfahan.

  • Iran reshuffles its security leadership, appointing Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr: he’s a former IRGC commander and replaces the assassinated Ali Larijani.

  • Iran halts natural gas exports to Turkey: follows last week’s Israeli strike on the massive South Pars gas field; QatarEnergy declares force majeure on some LNG contracts due war.

*  *  *

Iran Refuses Talks With Trump’s ‘Backstabbing Negotiators’: Telegraph

This is to be expected, given how things went in Geneva just hours before it was bombs away:

Iran has refused to negotiate with Donald Trump’s top envoys, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, accusing them of “backstabbing”.

Gulf sources told The Telegraph that the Iranians would not sit down with Mr Witkoff, the administration’s Middle East envoy, and Mr Kushner, Mr Trump’s adviser and son-in-law, because of the military strikes that hit Tehran hours after they held talks in February.

JD Vance, the vice-president who has remained largely quiet during the conflict, is now being touted as chief negotiator should fresh discussions go ahead in Islamabad, Pakistan, later this week.

“Vance is preferred,” a Gulf source said of the Iranians. “They don’t want to work with Jared and Witkoff because they stabbed them in the back.”

US Seeks One-Month Ceasefire, Sent Iran Plan To End War; Israeli TV

Israel’s Channel 12 TV is reporting that the US is seeking a ceasefire period of one month, to be announced shortly, to work on a framework that Witkoff and Kushner are working on.

Despite many skeptics’ claims, President Trump had earlier confirmed that talks were taking place “right now”, claiming that U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff and Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner held talks Sunday with an Iranian leader.

He did not say who that was.

Trump earlier signaled that Iran had offered a “present” as a show of good faith in negotiations the US leader has claimed are ongoing to end a 25-day conflict that’s upended global markets, even as he deploys more troops to the Middle East.

Trump wouldn’t detail the gift, “worth a tremendous amount of money,” but confirmed it was related to energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz.

The New York Times reports that the plan was delivered via Pakistan, whose army chief has emerged as the key interlocutor between the United States and Iran, officials say.

Pakistan’s army chief, Field Marshal Syed Asim Munir, has emerged as the key interlocutor between the United States and Iran, with Egypt and Turkey encouraging the Iranians to engage constructively, the officials added. Field Marshal Munir is believed to maintain close ties to Iran’s Islamic Revolution Guards Corps, putting him in a position to pass messages between the warring sides, they said.

He recently reached out to Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the speaker of Iran’s Parliament and a former Revolutionary Guards commander, proposing that Pakistan host talks between Iran and the United States, said an Iranian official and a Pakistani official, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the sensitive communications.

Field Marshal Munir met twice in 2025 with President Trump, who has showered praise on him, saying he was his “favorite field marshal.”

It was unclear how widely the plan had been shared among Iranian officials and whether Iran was likely to accept it as a basis for negotiations.

Nor was it clear whether Israel was on board with the proposal.

Nevertheless, the delivery of the plan showed that the administration was ramping up efforts to conclude a war, now in its fourth week, that has drawn in several other countries.

The ceasefire period will be used to negotiate an agreement based on the following points: (emphasis ours):

What does the US want from Iran?

  1. Dismantling existing nuclear capabilities that have already been accumulated

  2. A commitment that Iran will never pursue nuclear weapons

  3. No material will be enriched on Iranian soil.

  4. All enriched material will be delivered to Saba on a schedule to be determined by the parties.

  5. Natanz, Isfahan and Fordow will be decommissioned – destroyed

  6. The Atomic Energy Agency will be exposed to all information within Iran’s borders.

  7. Iran will abandon the proxy paradigm

  8. Stop actually funding and arming the proxies in the region.

  9. The Strait of Hormuz will remain open, will be a free maritime zone – and no one will block it

  10. Postponement of decision on ballistic missile program

  11. Ballistic missiles are only used for defense

What will Iran get in return?

  1. Lifting all sanctions

  2. Will assist them in promoting and developing a civil nuclear project in Bushehr (electricity generation)

  3. The snapback threat of sanctions will be removed

According to Channel 12’s report, Israel is concerned about proposal and thinks it is unlikely Iran will accept the terms.

The immediate reaction was a drop in crude oil prices…

…and the mirror image rise in US equity futures…

The Hill reports that President Trump said Tuesday that Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Joint Chiefs of Staff Chair Gen. Dan Caine were “disappointed” by the idea of a U.S.-negotiated ceasefire with Iran.

Hegseth and Caine were “the only two people that were quite disappointed” the U.S.-Israeli war against Tehran may soon come to an end, Trump said in the Oval Office following the swearing in of Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin.

“I think this thing’s going to be settled very soon and they go, ‘Oh, that’s too bad.’ Pete didn’t want it to be settled,” Trump said. 

“They were not interested in settlement. They were interested in just winning this thing,” he added. 

How long before we get a denial (or a rejection from Iran)? And let’s just all forget about the imminent ‘boots on the ground’?

No Change in Trump Iran Rhetoric in latest from WH

Trump in the oval once again addressed the Iran conflict, saying “this is a change in the Iranian regime,” and went further, stating, “I think we can say this is regime change.”

Trump expressed confidence that negotiations would conclude successfully, saying, “they are going to make a deal; they gave us a significant prize worth tremendous amount of money,” later reiterating that Iran had “gave us a very big present” worth “a very big amount of money” – supposedly the Strait of Hormuz. He asserted “we’ll have control of anything we want.”

He also hailed that Iran has been completely destroyed “militarily” – but without addressing the fact that Iranian forces continue to fire rockets on targets across the region. He at one point proclaimed once again: “we won” – but blamed the “fake news media” for not acknowledging that.

Reports of US-Iran Peace Talks for Thursday

Axios reports another ‘maybe’ planned peace talks: “The U.S. and a group of regional mediators are discussing the possibility of holding high-level peace talks with Iran as soon as Thursday, but are still waiting for a response from Tehran, two sources with knowledge of the discussions” were cited as saying.

As has been the case for days, Tehran is denying that it is in dialogue with Washington, also as the White House has talked about “escalating to de-escalate” – and now amid reports of elite 82nd Airborne troops about to deploy to the region. Trump is reportedly interested in “winding down” the war, but is there an actual plan to do this? More from Axios:

  • Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is concerned Trump might strike a deal that falls well short of Israel’s objectives, includes significant concessions, and limits Israel’s ability to conduct strikes against Iran, two Israeli sources say.
  • A third source said Israeli leaders were skeptical Iran had actually offered the concessions the U.S. claimed.

Trump confirms efforts, which may still be unreciprocated:

TRUMP: WE’RE IN NEGOTIATIONS WITH IRAN RIGHT NOW

TRUMP: RUBIO, VANCE, OTHER PEOPLE ARE NEGOTIATING WITH IRAN

TRUMP SAYS IRAN IS ‘TALKING SENSE’

TRUMP: IRAN AGREED THEY’LL NEVER HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON

82nd Airborne Division Deploying to Middle East

Amid speculation that President Trump could seek to force open the Strait of Hormuz by some kind of ultra high risk Kharg Island takeover operation, Fox chief national security correspondent Jennifer Griffin has posted the following:

Fox News has learned that the Commander of the 82nd Airborne Division Maj Gen Brandon Tegtmeier and his “command element,” members of his headquarters staff, have been ordered to deploy to the Middle East as the Pentagon and White House weigh whether to send the 82nd Airborne Division to the Middle East for possible land operations.

It was only on Monday that the NYT began reporting Pentagon was seriously weighing whether to send the elite 82nd Airborne. This would be a sure sign of escalation into potential ‘ground operations’.

Here’s more from WSJ:

The Pentagon is planning to deploy about 3,000 soldiers from the Army’s elite 82nd Airborne Division to the Middle East to support operations against Iran, according to two U.S. officials, with a written order expected in the coming hours.

Officials cautioned that a decision to put boots on the ground in Iran hasn’t been made. But deploying the 82nd opens the door to President Trump for several strategic options.

Iran & Israel Trade Blows Despite US Promoting Backchannel Talks

Despite the White House touting backchannel interactions with the Iranians as basis for some kind of peaceful offramp, Israel and Iran intensified direct and regional strikes, in continued escalation of the war. The Israeli military said it had “completed a wave of extensive strikes targeting production sites” across Iran, including in Isfahan, following overnight reports that gas facilities were hit, triggering fears of potential Iranian retaliation on Gulf energy and infrastructure sites – which doesn’t appear to have happened yet.

Iran has kept up its attacks on Israel, launching at least eight overnight missile waves, including reports of cluster munitions as well as new cutting-edge warheads and projectiles. Impacts were reported across Tel Aviv, causing heavy building damage and multiple casualties, as well as with sirens sounding from the Judean Foothills to Eilat. One strike marked a shift in capability, per the NY Times: “One of the Iranian missiles that hit Tel Aviv carried a warhead of around 100 kilograms… This missile was ‘something we have not yet encountered in the war,'” said Col. Miki David.

Iran Halts NatGas Exports to Turkey

More energy flows impact and blowback as Iran has halted natural gas exports to Turkey following last week’s Israeli strike on the massive South Pars gas field, according to regional sources and Bloomberg. Turkey sourced roughly 14% of its gas from Iran last year, per industry data, but continues to rely on Russia and Azerbaijan as primary suppliers while drawing on existing reserves. Ankara has not initially confirmed or commented.

The South Pars field, part of the world’s largest natural gas reserve, sits at the core of Iran’s energy system, underpinning both domestic supply and export flows. Per Middle East Eye: “Data from Turkey’s Energy Market Regulatory Authority suggests that the country imports around 13 percent of its gas needs annually, roughly 7 billion cubic metres (bcm), from Iran.”

The report concludes that “A sharp drop in Iranian gas flows to Turkey following Israel’s strike on the South Pars gas field and Tehran’s retaliatory attacks across the Gulf has raised energy security concerns. But analysts say Ankara will likely be able to cushion the blow.

New National Security Chief (former IRGC), Ongoing Retaliation on Gulf

Iran has continued to signal resilience, downplaying threats to its grid and stating damaged infrastructure could be quickly rebuilt, even as a gas pipeline at Khorramshahr was hit apparently without disruption. Saudi Arabia said it “intercepted and destroyed” more than a dozen drones in its east, while the UAE reported intercepting five ballistic missiles and 17 drones in a single day, bringing totals since the war began to hundreds of missiles and more than 1,800 drones. Bahrain said another facility was set ablaze “as a result of Iranian aggression.”

Tehran has reportedly simultaneously struck US bases, and Gulf states including Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, while warning any attack on its energy network will trigger region-wide blackouts. Northern Iraq has continued to see drone threats. “The entire region will go dark” – Iranian leadership has threatened. Meanwhile, Iran has reshuffled its security leadership, appointing Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr to replace the assassinated Ali Larijani, underscoring wartime consolidation at the top. Zolghadr is a former Revolutionary Guards commander.

Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr in 2013, via Wiki Commons

Status of Diplomacy

Lebanon has declared the Iranian ambassador persona non grata and ordered him to leave the country by Sunday, after an Iranian ballistic missile fell on Lebanese territory. This appears also a way to pressure Hezbollah, given the Lebanese state has long wanted the Tehran-linked group to lay down is arms so war doesn’t engulf the whole country.

Both Pakistan and Qatar have stepped up mediation efforts, with chatter that Islamabad could play host to future Iranian and US talks. Despite the rumors of ongoing backchannel communications, and President Trump himself insisting Sunday into Monday this is happening, there’s as yet no clear evidence that Tehran and Washington are actually dialoguing. Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry has told Al Jazeera that Islamabad is ready to host talks between the US and Iran: “If the parties desire, Islamabad is always willing to host talks,” Foreign Ministry spokesman Tahir Andrabi said. Andrabi’s comment came a day after Trump put on hold, for a period five days, his threat to bomb Iranian power plants.

WSJ meanwhile writes, “Foreign ministers from Egypt, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan gathered before dawn Thursday in Riyadh for talks aimed at finding a diplomatic off-ramp to the war in Iran.” The report continues, “But there was one big problem, according to Arab officials involved in the discussions: finding a counterpart in Iran to negotiate with. Earlier that week, Israel killed Iran’s national security chief, Ali Larijani, who had been considered a viable partner who could engage with the West.”

And Bloomberg’s assessment: “Fighting between the US-Israeli alliance and Iran raged unabated, even as President Donald Trump claimed talks are under way to end the conflict.” The report then notes no observable cooling or offramp in the tit-for-tat exchanges of fire:

Iran carried out overnight missile and drone attacks on the Israeli cities of Tel Aviv, Eilat and Dimona, as well as on US bases in the Middle East. Israel launched a wave of strikes in western and central Iran, including Tehran, with Defense Minister Israel Katz saying the campaign would continue “at full intensity.”

Israel is Cool on Prospect of a Deal

Reports out of regional and Israeli media claim Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi quietly signaled to US envoy Steve Witkoff that Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has agreed to negotiations, while Iranian officials said they have received US proposals via intermediaries and are reviewing them. However, Tehran keeps threatening and delivering more ‘retaliatory’ action, perceiving that it has the long-term strategic leverage given the Strait of Hormuz crisis and Trump seeming to issue forth dictates on a back foot.

Israeli officials have by and large dismissed the prospects of a deal, warning the chances of agreement are “very small” and stressing that US force deployments and joint operational planning remain unchanged. 

More Regional Spillover: Caspian & Lebanon

The Kremlin has newly warned that any expansion into the Caspian Sea would be viewed “extremely negatively” after Israeli strikes reportedly targeted Iranian naval assets there. Meanwhile, a parallel ground war in Lebanon is accelerating. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz signaled a long-term buffer zone and mass displacement, stating, “Hundreds of thousands… will not return south of the Litani River until security is guaranteed.”

Video purports to show large Israeli strike on Southern Lebanon overnight – an apparent hit on a gas station:

Israel has already destroyed key infrastructure, with Katz confirming, “All five bridges over the Litani… have been blown up,” as forces move to control the area. There are over 1,000 dead and more than a million displaced in Lebanon, with much of Israel’s north also still under emergency evacuation orders, given Hezbollah rocket fire there. At least two Lebanese died in the last day due to Israeli strikes Bshamoun.

*  *  * ARE YOU PREPARED?

Tyler Durden
Wed, 03/25/2026 – 06:35

Britain’s Countryside Is Still Racist

Britain’s Countryside Is Still Racist

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

The National Trust’s director-general has declared that Britain’s countryside remains unwelcoming to ethnic minorities, blaming everything from clothing choices to ignorance of basic rural etiquette. 

This isn’t some fringe activist rant — it’s official policy from the charity tasked with protecting the nation’s heritage, straight out of the same DEI playbook that’s already consumed government agencies.

In a video clip shared on X, National Trust Director-General Hilary McGrady stated: “The research clearly shows that ethnic minorities don’t feel comfortable in the countryside — there are lots of reasons for this, they don’t know what to wear, don’t know the countryside code.”

Speaking on LBC, she expanded: “Everything from: it’s not culturally something that they necessarily feel as if it’s part of what they do when they go there. They don’t necessarily know ‘what am I meant to wear, how do I behave? What’s a countryside code? I’ve never heard of it’. So there’s loads of different reasons why they don’t feel confident all the time.”

McGrady insisted the charity must act because “the research comes back really clearly to say they don’t [feel it’s a place for them]. So we accept that and we have to respond in a way that tries to help because the National Trust is here for everyone. That’s part of our charitable purpose.”

As we’ve previously detailed, the government is obsessed with making Britain’s countryside less white. 

Under Defra guidance, National Landscapes and local councils across the Chilterns, Cotswolds, Malvern Hills, Nidderdale, Surrey Hills and beyond are rolling out diversity targets, outreach to Muslim communities in Luton, staff recruitment drives, and marketing in “community languages” — all to address supposed barriers like “concerns about how they will be received” or fear of dogs.

The push traces directly to a 2019 Defra-commissioned report by Julian Glover, which warned the countryside was an “exclusive, mainly white, mainly middle-class club” and risked becoming “irrelevant” as society changes. 

A follow-up 2022 Defra report, which cost taxpayers £108,000, claimed protected landscapes are seen as “a white space, to which they did not belong,” with ethnic minorities citing “white culture” issues like traditional pubs and drinking.

It gets worse. In 2024, the Wildlife and Countryside Link — an umbrella group whose members include the RSPCA, WWF and the National Trust itself — told Parliament the countryside is a “racist colonial” white space “governed by white British cultural values.” 

They demanded legally binding targets to force more non-white access, claiming cultural barriers mean ethnic minorities can’t “enjoy the outdoors” because of “white British cultural values” embedded in green spaces.

The Muslim Hikers group has echoed the same line, insisting rural areas feel unwelcoming. 

Meanwhile, as these organisations lecture the public about “inclusion,” our countryside is being buried under mountains of fly-tipped rubbish from urban areas — 20 tonnes dumped in Dorset’s Holt Heath nature reserve, entire streams of waste visible for miles on Welsh mountains, and protected sites turned into third-world dumps. 

The contrast couldn’t be starker: instead of tackling real problems created by unchecked mass migration, officials fixate on making the English landscape feel less English.

McGrady’s comments are the latest chapter in this relentless campaign. The National Trust, once a guardian of Britain’s history and beauty, now treats the countryside like a failing diversity quota that must be fixed. 

Forget centuries of British culture, literature, and tradition that shaped these landscapes — the new priority is ensuring everyone knows the right boots to wear and the right code to follow, or else it’s racism.

The real story here is cultural incompatibility being reframed as systemic bigotry, with taxpayer-funded charities and government departments working overtime to guilt-trip the majority population into surrendering their heritage.

Britain’s countryside doesn’t need more lectures on whiteness. It needs protection from the very policies that erode the unique character millions of Brits cherish. 

As mass immigration reshapes the nation, preserving these green spaces as they are — for the people who actually value and respect them — is the only way to keep them relevant for generations to come.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 03/25/2026 – 06:30

“Changed My Entire Life”: Top OnlyFans Creators Mourn Death Of Billionaire Founder

“Changed My Entire Life”: Top OnlyFans Creators Mourn Death Of Billionaire Founder

Top OnlyFans creator pornstar Sophie Rain, who has earned tens of millions of dollars on the adult content platform over the last several years, mourned the death of OnlyFans owner and billionaire Leonid Radvinsky on Monday.

Rain, one of the platform’s highest earners who has reportedly grossed over $100 million since 2023, thanked Radvinsky for changing her life.

“I don’t even know how to put this into words. That man built something that changed my entire life. Like, I grew up on food stamps and now I can take care of my whole family because of a platform he created. I will never forget that,” Rain told the New York Post in an exclusive interview.

Rain said, “Before OnlyFans, I was waitressing and barely making rent. That platform gave me everything. And that doesn’t happen without someone building it in the first place.”

She told the NY Post that she never met the billionaire, “but everything I have right now is because he built something that gave people like me a chance,” adding, “Sending so much love to his family. This is really, really sad.”

Piper Rockelle, another OnlyFans adult star, told the outlet, “I’ve only been on the platform since January, but it already changed everything for me. Like, I owe a lot to what that man built … I don’t really know what to say other than thank you for building something that gave people like me a shot. I wouldn’t be where I am right now without it.”

Radvinsky died of cancer at the early age of 43 on Monday, according to a statement from the company. His death raises new questions about the platform’s future ownership, especially since he reportedly placed his majority stake in a trust in 2024.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 03/25/2026 – 04:15

Being A Pedophile Now Not Enough To Warrant Deportation

Being A Pedophile Now Not Enough To Warrant Deportation

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

A convicted paedophile migrant who failed to disclose his child sex offence when applying to stay in Britain has won an appeal against deportation – because a judge ruled the omission was simply an “honest mistake.”

YES, REALLY.

Edi Cardoso Ramos, who was convicted in Portugal of molesting a five-year-old child, can now fight to remain in the UK after the Upper Tribunal accepted his explanation that he thought the immigration form only asked about UK convictions. 

This decision leaves British families wondering why foreign sex offenders keep getting second chances while the system fails to protect the public.

The Daily Mail reports that Ramos was convicted in 2014, when he was 19, of a serious sexual offence involving the molestation of a five-year-old child. He received a three-year suspended custodial sentence. He migrated to the UK in 2018. In 2020, when applying for leave to remain, he denied having any prior convictions on the form. He later claimed he misunderstood the question, thinking it asked only about convictions in the United Kingdom.

In 2024, Ramos was caught with a prostitute in his car and accepted a police caution for outraging public decency. A background check then revealed his 2014 conviction in Portugal, prompting the Home Office to start deportation proceedings. He appealed the decision.

Judge Paul Lodato of the Upper Tribunal of the Immigration and Asylum Chamber allowed the appeal. The judge stated: “Does (Ramos) represent a genuine, present and sufficiently serious threat to ‘a fundamental interest of society’? It was agreed that if I conclude that he does not, his appeal falls to be allowed.”

Molesting toddlers doesn’t represent a genuine threat, apparently.

The judge continued: “Having considered this issue very carefully, I am not satisfied, based on the evidence before me, that the (Home Office) has established that the threat (Ramos) represents is a present threat.”

On the non-disclosure, Judge Lodato ruled: “I accept (Ramos’s) explanation as being credible. I find that he made an honest mistake when he answered the question about his previous convictions and that his failure to disclose the material fact of his 2014 conviction in Portugal was not dishonest.”

He added: “I therefore do not consider (Ramos’s) non-disclosure of his 2014 conviction when he completed his 2020 leave to remain application indicates that (Ramos) is a present threat… (Ramos) is a genuine and sufficiently serious threat, but one that is not present.”

For these reasons, the appeal was allowed and Ramos can now fight deportation from a fresh hearing.

Social media erupted in fury at the ruling.

File this latest farce alongside a growing litany of ridiculous reasons sex criminals and other offenders have dodged deportation under the same broken system.

Albanian migrant Klevis Disha, who entered the UK illegally in 2001 under a false name and was later convicted for possessing £250,000 in dirty money, successfully fought deportation by claiming it would be unduly harsh on his 11-year-old British son – who apparently dislikes “foreign” chicken nuggets because of texture issues. 

First-tier Tribunal Judge Linda Veloso accepted the Article 8 family-life argument. Reform UK’s Shadow Home Secretary Zia Yusuf said: “A criminal migrant who entered Britain illegally under a false name and lied in a failed asylum claim has successfully fought his deportation by arguing his son disliked foreign chicken nuggets. This is the country the Tories and Labour have created.”

A Somali criminal, schizophrenic and alcohol-dependent for nearly 20 years, was allowed to stay because deportation would cause him excessive “stress” and breach Article 3 of the European Convention on Human Rights by worsening his mental health. Deputy Upper Tribunal Judge Ian Jarvis ruled: “I conclude that the weight of the evidence before the Tribunal indicates that the [man] will very quickly become noncompliant with his medication… without the 24/7 support and monitoring which he currently receives in the United Kingdom.”

An insane Pakistani paedophile who reoffended by assaulting a teenage girl after release from prison for sex offences escaped deportation because his “uncontrollable” alcoholism would allegedly lead to “inhuman or degrading treatment” in Pakistan without proper treatment. He remains in Britain.

A separate Pakistani migrant arrived on a spousal visa and was convicted of attempting to cause children under 16 to engage in sexual acts after grooming decoy “barely pubescent girls” online while his wife was hospitalised with Covid. He won his appeal because deportation would be “unduly harsh” on his British children and family life.

The judge even factored in the wife’s lack of intimate relations during her illness. Shadow justice secretary Robert Jenrick called the case “disgraceful,” adding: “The public are right to think that our immigration system is rigged in the interests of people who mean us harm, illegal migrants, against the interests of the British public.”

And as the Daily Mail also revealed, another migrant won asylum by claiming he was gay and fleeing persecution – only to be exposed with a secret wife and child back in Cameroon. 

The pattern is undeniable. Activist judges, human rights laws that handcuff the Home Office, and a political class addicted to open borders keep handing victories to those who should never have been here in the first place. 

Britain’s children and communities deserve better. The safety of the public must come first – not endless excuses for foreign criminals.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 03/25/2026 – 03:30

Israel Seeks To Disrupt Russian-Iranian Arms Transfer Route In The Caspian Sea

Israel Seeks To Disrupt Russian-Iranian Arms Transfer Route In The Caspian Sea

Russia and Iran have long had positive bilateral relations, which deepened in the context of the Ukraine war, and now in the midst of Trump’s Operation Epic Fury, where Moscow is said to be sharing vital intelligence and targeting information with Tehran.

Fresh reporting in The Wall Street Journal suggests that recent large-scale Israeli attacks in the Caspian Sea could mean flirting with WW3 and potential attacks on Russian interests and assets.

“An Israeli strike on a naval outpost in the Caspian Sea targeted Russia’s support for Iran in the war, hitting a supply line that the countries have used to move ammunition, drones and other weaponry, people familiar with the matter said,” WSJ writes late in the day Tuesday.

Illustrative: Prior Iranian Navy Caspian Sea drills

“Last week’s strike was Israel’s first ever on the world’s largest inland sea,” the report continues to point out. It was “Far beyond the reach of the U.S. Navy, the sea connects Russian and Iranian ports about 600 miles apart, giving the countries a place to freely swap weapons along with goods such as wheat and oil.”

While Western media has labeled this as a ‘smuggling route’Moscow would see this as more simply legitimate bilateral trade on defense and other items.

According to more details:

The route has become especially important for transferring Iran’s Shahed drones—now made in both countries—which Russia has used to bombard Ukrainian cities and Tehran has used to strike airports, energy facilities and U.S. bases across the Persian Gulf.

Cooperation between the two countries has expanded during the war, with Russia sharing satellite imagery and improved drone technology to help Iran attack U.S. assets and other targets across the Gulf, people familiar with the matter have said.

Again, that Iran and Russia exercise transfer of goods under their mutual economic and defense pacts should come as no surprise.

What should comes as a surprise is Israel’s willingness to brazenly poke the bear in its own backyard. Eliezer Marum, a former commander of the Israeli Navy, was quoted in the same report as saying: “The most important goal of this strike was to limit Russian smuggling and show the Iranians that they don’t have sea defenses in the Caspian.”

Both Israel and the US have since touted that the whole of the Iranian Navy is basically destroyed and incapacitated, including its fleet in the Caspian Sea. Not much in the way of video, images, or ground-level confirmation have been forthcoming, other than what Israel’s military has shared. But it is probably safe to assume that Iran’s naval capabilities have indeed been greatly degraded.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 03/25/2026 – 02:45

What’s So Great About Diversity?

What’s So Great About Diversity?

Authored by DSr. James Allan via DailySceptic.org,

‘Diversity is our strength.’ One hears this, or myriad variants of the same idea, unrelentingly. Certainly I work in an Australian university where the extent of higher-ups pushing this notion does indeed qualify as unrelenting, even matching totalitarian state levels of propaganda. But even outside the hallowed halls of impartial, politically balanced academia (did I write that with a straight face?) the mantra or cliché that diversity somehow delivers a stronger balance sheet or a more cohesive society or just better outcomes is pervasive in today’s democracies that have committed themselves to multiculturalism and to the various neo-Marxist versions of feminism. Sure, those spouting these ‘diversity is a panacea’ nostrums never cash out the claim. They never tell us precisely how ‘diversity’ is making society better or wealthier or more unified. We are all just supposed to take it on faith, as it were.

We’re just to believe the bureaucratic, political and various professional bodies’ elites who push this line, and believe it simply because they are the ones telling us it’s so.

But you and I both know there isn’t a lot of evidence to support this cliché. Worse, if you’re like me you’re thinking that these are the same elites who massively failed us by imposing thuggish, illiberal lockdowns that weaponised the police, closed schools, infringed all sorts of free speech criticisms and also transferred huge wealth from poor to rich and from young to old (think asset inflation after steroidal money printing and unchecked government spending). You’re remembering these are the same elites who likewise failed us by not being willing to stand up to a transgender lunacy lobby that makes those with IQs over 130 unable to say what a woman is. The same elites, too, who failed us by abandoning all scepticism and critical thinking around our changing weather, willingly impoverishing us in the patent untruth that renewables are cheaper all-up. Like me you’re wondering what the odds are that these same people are likely to be right about anything. Hint: Not bloody high. And certainly not very high that they are right about some motherhood-type slogan meant to silence debate about large-scale immigration and about their efforts to take merit out of any and all hiring and ‘who gets into university’ decisions. This looks a lot like one of those Mark Twain situations of being quietly coerced to ‘believe what you know ain’t so’.

But let’s resist the temptation to mock this cliché that ‘diversity is our strength’ and consider it a bit more carefully. We all know, for instance, that a bit of genetic diversity in parents is better for the offspring of that match. All things considered we’d prefer to avoid siblings or even first cousins mating. Not for most people the inbreeding of some of the former European royal families, where disappearing chins was the norm. Yet the amount of genetic diversity needed to produce healthy kids is pretty tiny. Just anyone outside the immediate family will do. Same culture? Tick. Same commitment to Western civilisation? Tick. Same belief in free speech and the role of women? Tick again. Just don’t sleep with your sister. So if that’s what was meant by all the propaganda on behalf of the joys of diversity, I think we could all get on board. (Well, I hesitate to speak for Tasmanians, those hailing from Arkansas, or any readers from the Catlins south of Dunedin in New Zealand, but readers get the general point.)

On the other side of the equation we know that the best fighting units are often drawn from the same geographical area. Just look at how the British army used to recruit soldiers. Closer bonds mean a greater willingness to put your life on the line for someone else. Or ask yourself whether you believe hiring ‘in the name of diversity’ has lowered physical standards when it comes to combat troops, firefighters going in to rescue people in burning homes or cops on the beat. It sure seems to be the case that whenever physical strength is a core component of the job, advocates of hiring women start by promising that not a single standard will be lowered but we end up with – you guessed it – lower standards for women. Is that really a strength? Who do you want carrying you out of a burning house or getting into a fight on the street with the thug attacking you? (By the way, the biggest lie told by Hollywood in its movies is that some 55 kilo woman can beat up a 90 kilo robber or rapist. It’s a complete lie.)

It gets worse because the whole ‘diversity’ (often thrown in with ‘equity’ and ‘inclusion’) edifice is chock full of contradictions. We are sold the idea that proponents of diversity welcome everyone into their fold. It matters not what you bring to the table. But if you doubt the worth of diversity itself? You are out. Just look at the huge push for ‘diversity, equity and inclusion’ in universities. You know which people have disappeared from our universities? Conservatives. The people who are sceptical about this anti-merit, ‘equality of outcome’ worldview. They aren’t hired. Promotions are harder. The data on this are astounding. A recent report looking at the political donations and survey answers to academics’ political views reported that there was not a single Trump Republican academic working at Yale. Not one! And remember the Voice campaign here? We have some 38 law schools. There were four legal academics in the entire country who publicly opposed the Voice and myriad numbers in favour.

Diversity always and everywhere boils down to a diversity of skin pigmentation or type of reproductive organs, or other favoured inherited group characteristic. But it never, ever involves pushing for a diversity of political or worldview opinions. And if you are opposed to, say, any affirmative action type programmes for women, Aborigines, non-heterosexuals, anyone thinking he was born in the wrong body (an incoherent claim, by the way), well, you are not welcome. Full stop. And the facts in terms of who is employed and gets to the top show that to be blatantly true.

 When some people now claim that working class white boys are the most discriminated-against group, that sure looks true to me if we’re talking about who gets special scholarships, who gets special support, who gets quiet, unspoken hiring help. Hint: Australian unis don’t have explicit quotas. Nope. Rather they look at a dean’s department, measure the percentage of favoured – only favoured – groups in society at large and then in the department, and then make the dean’s performance review’s success depend on getting a match. The incentives are brutal but indirect. And all of this existed and got worse under nine years of Coalition governments. It’s hard to claim with a straight face that the Libs ever fight for anything, take on any vested interests, or repeal any disliked statutes. Hence, mes amis, the rise of One Nation.

That is the truth of the matter. Diversity divas are divisive.

They shun and exclude non-believers in the name of the insipid faith they are proselytising.

Deep down they don’t believe in merit (save, ironically, their own because those imposing implicit quotas all, remarkably, believe that they themselves got there on merit).

This whole diversity (and equity and inclusion) mantra is a disaster.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 03/25/2026 – 02:00